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Apr 16, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 16, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 16, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. If you're one of those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Midlin frantically typing away.
0:21
We'll tell you why momentarily. Um, still to come this hour, Raheem Palmer from The Ringer- Yeah... talks, talks some NBA with us, get his thoughts on, uh, the NBA, also the Action Network as well.
0:32
You know what his, uh, his Twitter handle is by the way? I know you know, Kelly. I am Robstradamus. I am Robstradamus. That's right. Uh, looking for that. Uh, looking forward to that.
0:40
Mike Somich, co-host of Ready, Set, Bet here on the network with our own Mateo Moreno, Matt Brown. Uh, he will join us as well to talk multiple sports, baseball, some hockey.
0:50
Um, I don't know, he's got thoughts on, on NFL draft as well. He's always been an NFL draft pick. Oh, yeah, yeah.
0:55
I expect Mike to have, uh, several draft bets even though I didn't tell him to be prepared for that at all, but I expect him to. Uh, let's get to some picks here. Joe Peda.
1:04
Joe, by the way, Mike Somich just texting us right at this moment. He not only has draft picks, draft bets, he has NBA, NHL, and M- and MLB, and he can talk derby too. All of that with Somich coming up. How about that?
1:18
Uh, by the way, we- He's got a new show on the network, you know, VSiN at the Track. VSiN at the Track, we'll promote that as well. Um, Joe Peda has been kind enough to give us his baseball plays every single day here.
1:30
Yesterday went two and two for minus 0.06 units, so- Are, are we approaching the, the, the line? He is 17 and 16 plus 0.77 units on the season. [laughs] So, so he must still deliver every day. Every day.
1:45
Um- All right, that was the rule, right? He, he was gonna stop once he was losing? He, he said, "I got to tax day, my next goal is May 1st." Okay. No, no, it wasn't, it wasn't negative. It was minus 10.
1:54
Minus 10, he's out. Oh, okay, okay, gotcha. But he d- he, but plus 10, maybe he's out two, so we, we wanna make sure that he stays if he gets to that.
2:01
Uh, he's got three plays today, three in Major League Baseball from Mr. Peda. He's on the, uh, he's on the Blue Jays plus 124 today. Blue Jays, uh, hosting the Atlanta Braves. Blue Jays plus 124.
2:14
He's on the Detroit Tigers. Detroit Tigers plus 127. They're on the road at Milwaukee, couple, couple interleague games there.
2:23
And then the one favorite he's on, he's on the Seattle Mariners, also interleague, at the Cincinnati Reds today. Uh, he's got 'em at minus 118. So Blue Jays, Tigers, and Mariners from Joe Peda.
2:35
And now, ladies and gentlemen, it's very tough to- I sc-... introduce this. I screwed this up. I screwed it up. Given the events, oh, I shouldn't, I shouldn't intro it yet? No, no, go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead.
2:44
All right. Go ahead. Time to go country clubbing. [air horn blaring] [upbeat music] Yeah. There we go. Wyatt getting, getting in the action. I like to see my staff look like- There we go. Later. On that side too.
2:55
There we go. What we're referring to here is, uh, while we go country clubbing, is behind the glass we can't see our fine folks. We can't see their faces behind the glass 'cause it's darkened.
3:05
Right, it's gotta be dark in the control room. But we have them putting their phones up with the lights going crazy whenever we go to break. We don't have them, they just started it. They just started it.
3:13
No, they're going crazy with the phone. They get, they get, they get into the club in action. We appreciate it.
3:15
Although now I'm seeing it reflecting in the, in the glass behind us, so we, we might have to be careful with that.
3:19
Uh, doing this show sometimes is like big time compartmentalization 'cause while we're doing this show I am often sweating, when the tennis tour is, is overseas, I'm often sweating tennis bets.
3:31
Yesterday, uh, sort of the, the Earth returns to its a- it, to its axis, we had a great day on Clay. Hit a big $2 plus dog, um, on, uh, Yannick Hanfmann. This morning I had three plays. Uh, they were all dogs.
3:45
Uh, one of them lost fair square, was up a set, but then lost in three. Eh, you know, it's tennis.
3:51
The second one, uh, Bernarda Pera, I had Bernarda Pera at, um, I'll give you the exact, uh, the exact number I had her at, 'cause I don't wanna, I don't wanna lie.
4:00
Uh, Bernarda Pera I had at plus 335 against Linda Noskova. She was up a set and serving for the match at 6-5 in the second set for a straight set win, plus 335. She gagged that game and the match. Mm.
4:14
And then just now as we were concluding our number one of a Numbers Game, uh, I was on, uh, Sara Errani, Sara Errani, at plus 218 against Magdalena Frech. Errani
4:29
serving for the match in set number three, 6-5, gags that. Up 5-2 in the tiebreaker, gags that. So it has not been a pleasant country clubbing morning. At, at my country club it has not been pleasant.
4:44
So, uh, and it, that, that is the thin line between a monster day, hitting a three plus dollar dog and a two plus dollar dog, and going O and three. Uh, I have two left if you're brave enough.
4:57
Diana Shnaider is, uh, the one of the two remaining plays on the, uh, ladies' side. Diana Shnaider at plus 116 against Elise Mertens. And then Kelly, I'm gonna let you give a crack at the second one.
5:10
This is a plus 245 dog. Go. We have, we have a new graphics, uh, guy, David, working with us now, and, uh- Poor guy, this is his first day. Yeah, type that...
5:18
yeah, there, there is no way he felt comfortable taking this graphic. Uh, this is, uh- This is-... Tiatsoa Sara Rakotomanoga Rajaona. Everything but the Rakotomanga you missed. Yes, three out of four.
5:28
I got it, three out of four ain't bad. Three... Well, you got Sara. That was a sort of gimme. Uh, Tiatsoa Sara Rakotomanga Rajaona at plus 245, uh, going up against Jacqueline Cristian.
5:41
These are both on the ladies' side. Um, Rakotomanga Rajaona is French. She plays under the French flag, but she is originally from Madagascar. Okay. You know where Madagascar is geographically?
5:53
Yes, right off the coast of Africa. Yes. South Africa. East side. To be more exact. That's right. There you go. Actually, actually, I don't know that for sure. So those are the two remaining tennis plays today.
6:02
The way that those were gagged this morning is just a bitter feeling. There's no other way to say it, but, uh, can't say they weren't good bets, I guess. I guess I can take that to my-...
6:11
betting account and say, "Hey, they were great bets, weren't they? You guys gonna pay me?" They're just not gonna pay me Man, there, there are very few things I am certain with Gil betting history on.
6:19
I am certain I have never typed that name in before- No... for a test bet. [laughs] No, it's brand new. First time ever. First time ever. [laughs] Anyway, now for a little more country- Oh, oh...
6:27
a little more pleasant country club, and it's the RBC Heritage this week, otherwise known as the week after the Masters. Scottie Scheffler is your short shot to win it, and I mean by far, plus 360.
6:40
By the way, Scheffler at the Masters, we didn't even touch on him. He almost just casually played his way into a T2 at, or excuse me, into a second place finish at one point. He still ends up in the top five.
6:52
One, one of the dumbest current things in just sports television, period, is when, is when there is a golf discussion going on and it's critical of Scottie Scheffler's year, and then they throw up a graphic of his finishes on the season.
7:04
Ridiculous. It's like, "What do we expect from this guy?" I know. Like, we, we, we really expect him to win every week or else he's a failure. It's the ego thing. Uh, Scheffler plus 360.
7:12
Collin Morikawa is next, but these are all double digits now. Morikawa's 11 to one. Shop around for all these. Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Åberg, both at 12 to one. Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, both at 18 to one.
7:23
Everybody else longer than that, starting with Corey Conners at 22 to one. Your thoughts, your bets, sir. Yeah, uh, RBC Heritage, great event.
7:31
Hate that they made this into a signature event, honestly, and really hate that just we f- s- just, just the fact that we have a signature event, Gil, the week after the Masters seems very silly to me.
7:41
But that's what we have. Yeah.
7:42
And that's, so if you have, uh, the capacity to play, and you are capable to play and want to play after week after the biggest major of the year, uh, then you've got to make the short trip down, uh, to Harbour Town to go play this event, 'cause there is a lot of money and a lot of FedEx Cup points on the line.
7:58
We are at 71 players right now, unless I missed a withdrawal this morning. Uh, no cut event, so all these guys will be playing all four rounds.
8:06
This is about as ex- exact opposite if you're doing your ha- own handicapping at home, exa- [laughs] very, very close to exact opposite of what we saw from Augusta last week. This is not wide open off the tee.
8:16
Uh, you are gonna have to club down about 50% of the time. You gotta take driver out of the hands. It's a, what we like to call a positional track.
8:23
It, you're gonna hit it to point A off of the, off the tee, Gil, or you're gonna hit, have your, your approach shot from almost the same spot as everybody else, going into very, very small greens.
8:33
Second smallest greens on the PGA Tour outside of Pebble Beach. Um, so th- that's what you're gonna be looking at. Approach game is, is paramount this week. You're really looking at, at really strong approach players.
8:44
And then around the green play here isn't gonna be all that difficult, but you're going to have a lot of it because of the small greens.
8:50
So looking for really, really accurate off the tee guys, strong on approach, and then a little bit of putting this week is what I mainly looked at. Um, as far as my card, three outright plays.
9:02
I'm going back to Justin Thomas. You can find him 20-ish to one. I got him t- in the mid-20s, uh, 24 to one for me.
9:08
S- outright in top five on JT, the one struggle that he's really had recently is with the driver and his accuracy.
9:15
So on a course where he is forced to club down and j- I can rely more on his approach game, I think that's a benefit for him right now, which is usually not a g- a thing you would say about Justin Thomas, wanting to take the driver out of his hands.
9:26
So, uh, gonna go with JT this week. And then I'm on Russell Henley. He is my favorite play this week. That did not work out very well last week, though. No.
9:35
[laughs] That was, that, that was the, uh, the Ti- what is Dave Tindall's ended up being Rory and, and Henley. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, one, one of them got home. He had one bad round.
9:42
It's one of those, you have one bad round, you miss the cut, and that's what happens. Uh, but look, he is top 20 on all the approach stats, a, a, approach stats that I'm looking at.
9:50
He is one of the most accurate hitters off the tee, uh, that we have on the PGA Tour. Ranked out at last 16 rounds, eighth round the green, seventh in bogey avoidance, which are important this week.
10:00
He has had, let's see, he's gained on approach in four straight weeks and has four top 10, 10 finishes already this season. Another guy that's flying a little under the radar and has some great course history here.
10:11
So like him in the outright market. Played him in it as well, uh, top 10 pretty heavily, uh, as well, scale, uh, ladder down to that. Top 10 on Corey Conners. Went heavy there.
10:22
Did the same thing I'm doing, uh, as last week. I'm gonna keep, keep, uh, just riding Corey Conners 'cause he's been f- uh, playing some incredible golf recently, and this i- this course should fit his game very well.
10:32
So a heavy top 10. Gonna stay away from the outmar- outright market with Conners. The last outright I did skip. I'm going back to Berger one more time. This is a course he has played, uh, very well, Gil.
10:42
He's kind of teasing me right now 'cause he's playing good golf, just the great fin- uh, finishes and results aren't occurring.
10:49
But 50 to one in a small field, I'll take a shot on that one more time, and also played a top 20 on him at plus 125. The other one that's getting a little exhausting, I only went top 20 on him.
11:00
[laughs] But I am back on Sepp Straka. The approach numbers are just so good. Oh, man.
11:04
And at this course, it is what dema- what is demanded of you is to have great approach numbers, so I'm just gonna play a top 20 this week. I'm not gonna go outright. I'll go top 20 on him.
11:12
And then Tom Hoge, Will Hills boy, uh, one of the best approach players in the world. He's actually gaining with the putter right now, which is, uh, something you don't r- often see from him.
11:21
So plus 225 on a top 20 for Hoge. I haven't bet it yet, but he will definitely be on my first round leader board.
11:26
It's so funny you said that about Berger, uh, Daniel Berger, the w- uh, the way you couch it, because as I saw him come up on the screen, I'm like, "Come on, Berger, show up on," I know "... show up for this one."
11:34
Uh, i- it's, I, West is on him, too. I- it's, me and him have bet him a lot this year. It'd be nice if we got a win, Danny. Raheem Palmer on the other side from The Ringer, from The Athletic. Talk NBA with him.
11:46
That's on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music plays] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ready to get in on the action? First Bet has you covered.
12:04
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12:25
Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Uh, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. This is from Chris Heath. Um, "Did Will say," let me see if I'm picking up it right.
12:36
Here he goes, "Did Will say the books treat draft odds like Trae Young treats the basketball after a tantrum?" I missed that. Did he say that? I, I don't know.
12:43
[laughs] That's a- That's a, that's a good line if he did, though. [laughs] Yeah. He, he also points out that, uh, Willie Colon is a, uh, famous salsero. Thank you for that clarification on Willie Colon.
12:52
Jeff Nahill, "TNT crew is moving to ESPN Mass. Better question, is the studio moving to frigid Connecticut or staying in Atlanta?" I missed this news. This was on Monday, apparently the day after the Masters. Oh, really?
13:04
Apparently it was. I missed it too then. Apparently they're, they, they have resolved this, and they're, uh, with a partnership between ESPN and TNT, they're, they're making this happen.
13:11
I thought it was, who was, I thought it was Barkley that was like, "I'm never leaving Turner." Well, I think if they make it convenient for them. Yeah. Yeah.
13:19
And there's been so much back and forth with that story over, what, the past year, year and a half now, so whenever they made that announcement originally.
13:26
As long as they can just do it off the cuff like they've always done- Yeah... Barkley will do it. He, he just didn't wanna be part of this ESPN thing where you have to know stuff.
13:32
[laughs] Where you have to back up s- where you have to back up stuff with analytics. Oh, man. We still start our show every day with him, him saying- I know [laughs]...
13:42
he's one of those idiots that believes in analytics. Rhodes- Yeah. I, I do love him. Whenever, uh, he, he pops on for NCAA tournament every year, it's just like, I love how they even treat him. Oh, yeah.
13:51
'Cause it's like everybody's buttoned up, and they're like, "Chuck, what do you think?" "Well, there's a random Charles Barkley comment on college basketball." He's like, "Boy, that kid from Duke's pretty good."
13:59
[laughs] Uh, Rhodes Knows, "With what Saquon did for the Eagles, will the NFL return back to valuing running back earlier in drafts, considering most defenses are playing more cover two?
14:09
Uh, Jeanty on the Jaguars would be a game changer, I think, for Lawrence, since Etienne has fallen off." Uh, your first comment, absolutely, I agree with you, Rhodes. There's a lot there.
14:19
There is definitely, because of Saquon's success and Derrick Henry's success, going to good teams that were already good teams, uh, that is.
14:27
I definitely think there's a sh- there's a slight shift of the pendulum back, right?
14:31
Where we went completely into, "Oh my God, wide receiver is so much more valuable than running backs," not only in the real game itself, but fantasy and everything else, right?
14:38
But I think the game has, I, I think it's a copycat league. The problem with the theory, though, is that Saquon and Henry are generational.
14:46
And so I would hate to think that teams are going to try to sort of manifest some of these guys into being hopefully generational, right? Is Jeanty truly that? Is TreVeyon Henderson truly that?
15:00
For, for that matter, any of these running backs. It's considered to be a running back deep draft.
15:04
The question is, are the Raiders gonna have the, the onions to pick him sixth on a team that is not really, you know, one running back shy of glory? That's the thing. That's the bigger point to me.
15:19
E- even b- even beyond the generational talent, it, it, it's what we talked about a lot yesterday. It's, it's good backs being added to already good teams. Yeah. So you have to worry about other things.
15:29
If you're still building a team that has, that has a lot of holes- Well, and I would argue it's great backs being or a- Exactly... being added to great teams. M- m- no, me too. Yeah. That's what I would say, too.
15:38
So the question is, the problem is, i- it's the same question we had five years ago, I think, of, uh, is there value in building when you still have so many holes on your roster to be adding a r- top-end running back at the top of a draft?
15:51
I don't know. But Rhodes, I, I completely agree with your initial point there. Uh, Jeffrey S.
15:56
Devore, "Driving back to Indiana, thankful for the two hours of your show to pass the pavement time away under a cold and cloudy morning in eastern Ohio." Thank you, Jeffrey.
16:04
That's very nice, uh, nice of you to tweet that in. I hope you're not tweeting it while driving, though. It's the only thing I would add. Mm. 941 Bets, you think I was having a bad morning with Pera and Errani.
16:14
He says, "Yo, I was also on Pera and Errani today." Pera, who was, again, was a plus 335 dog serving for the match in straight sets. She gaks that and gaks the match.
16:24
Errani, who was serving for the match, is a north of a $2 dog serving for the match, gak'd that, was up 5-2 in the tiebreaker, lost that. He says, "Add to me Memphis plus four and a half from last night to the list.
16:36
I also had Shapovalov getting beat yesterday at 7 to 1, but my book doesn't pay out when a player retires." Tough country clubbing for 941 Bets. Phew. Ugh, that's a, that's a heck of a 24 hours. That's rough.
16:50
Thomas O'Toole, "On the what do we expect from Scheffler, uh, always going to compare to Tiger.
16:55
And while Scottie is having a crazy run since two years ago, uh, the golf talking heads expect him to break almost unbreakable records set by Big Cat." Yeah, it's wild. Yeah. It's insane.
17:05
Um, and Jesse Welch, "We got the old through the charts reference [laughs] from Will today. Classic." Hey, I did notice that. Through the charts.
17:13
Um, Greg Jones, "Do you live bet hedge when you have a dog that's winning to lock in a profit or just ride it out?" Greg, more often than not, I ride it out, trusting the numbers.
17:23
Um, you don't expect a gak'ing over and over. Yeah, good question, though. Good question. Absolute good question.
17:28
Uh, Bruce Dobigan, "Chuck and Shaq beat up on good Canadian boy Zach Edey at halftime, then Edey cleaned the boards in the second half. Onions, baby."
17:35
Yeah, Zach Edey, uh, making a lot of money with the over, uh, rebounds prop yesterday. Raheem Palmer joins us now, uh, from The Ringer and The Athletic. Uh, always nice to check in with Raheem.
17:45
Uh, you can check him out at I Am Rostradamus on Twitter. How you doing, Raheem? I don't know if Raheem can hear us. I don't, I don't think he can hear us right now. I don't think he can hear us. All right.
17:56
We'll, we'll get back to Raheem momentarily. I think I can. Yeah, I can hear y'all now. I can hear y'all. What's up? How you doing, Raheem? I'm good. I'm good. Life is good. I can't complain.
18:03
[laughs] Um, let's go through all the NBA stuff real quick 'cause we, 'cause, uh, we got you worked out here, uh, technically. So let me, let me just ask you this. We'll start with the big question.
18:12
Golden State, Houston, after last night's Golden State win over the Grizzlies, is a, i- it's coming down now. Was Golden State minus 200 when this show started? It is now creeping down a little bit.
18:23
Where do you, d- where do you see the value in this series? I think the value was on Houston, but I, like I'm having a hard time taking it.
18:31
I mean, look, my model has Houston, it gives them a 56% chance of winning their home games. Obviously, they do have home court advantage. It gives them a 46% chance of winning their road games.
18:43
Um, that assumes the model is correct.
18:45
The problem with Houston is that they are 22nd in half-court offensive rating, and typically, historically, when you look at teams who struggle in the half court and generate most of their offense through t- transition, they tend to struggle in the postseason.
18:59
And we know that the Warriors have the best two players in the series. If push comes to shove, you know, you trust Steph Curry and you trust Jimmy Butler to be able to score in the half court when the game slows down.
19:11
But I thought that line was wrong. I mean, Warriors can't be minus 200. Um, you know, I, I think I have a, a ton of respect for Eme- Eme Iwuoka. I think how this series is officiated is going to play a big role.
19:23
I mean, you saw that April 6th game between the Warriors and the Rockets where Steph Curry was one of 10 from the field and just had just three points.
19:32
I think Iman Thompson, I mean, he's probably in the 1% of athletes to ever play the NBA. Like he, I mean, he's a monster, he's tenacious. He should be able to create some problems for Steph Curry.
19:43
So, um, I think this is gonna be a long series. Um, I think your sentiment is echoed by a lot of people. It's like, I think the value is on the Rockets, but I really can't get myself to, to press submit on a bet here.
19:54
Yeah. Um, what did you bet series-wise on the, on the ones that are established so far? I mean, obviously you had to go, you had to grab the Clippers plus 160.
20:02
I mean, that was probably like the w- the worst price I've seen ever, um, in an NBA postseason series. I mean, this Clippers team is, I mean, top five offense, top five defense.
20:12
Y- I know the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic, but I mean, outside of that, who do you trust? And Jamal Murray, I mean, he, he has a similar injury history as Kaw- Kawhi Leonard.
20:22
Like, so it's just, I think the Clippers are the rightful favorite now. You see them as, as favorite in most sports books. I definitely bet that. I also bet over five and a half games for Lakers-Timberwolves.
20:31
I think that's a long series. That's another, that's another series where I feel like it's mispriced, but you don't necessarily want to take the Wolves, [laughs] right there.
20:40
Who do you have, by the way, we, we rarely ask a broad question like this of bettors, but who do you have in the Eastern Conference Finals? Who do you have in the Western Conference Finals?
20:48
I, I think it's a two-horse race between, um, obviously the Cleveland Cavaliers and the, and the, and the Boston Celtics.
20:54
And then when it comes to the Western Conference Finals, um, I do think there's value on the Clippers, but I think ultimately, you know, Oklahoma City, they've been the best team all year long, and it feels like they're gonna make it.
21:06
And then on the other side of the bracket, I like the Lakers to make it. I think- Hmm...
21:09
you know, a future on the Lakers to win the Western Conference is gonna have some good value, um, particularly to be able to hedge against Oklahoma City.
21:17
Anything, Raheem, in the 9:10 games tonight, play-ins, or in any of the Game 1s on Saturday or Sunday?
21:25
So for tonight, I, like, I'm, uh, you know, I hate to blindly play games, but when you look at the 10th seed, like they're, I mean, they haven't made to the, they haven't made it to the postseason as long as the play-in tournament has started.
21:38
I think they're like two and eight, um, lifetime, and they're losing these games by an average of 15 points a game.
21:44
So there's gonna be a lot of people who just say, um, "I want the experience of the Miami Heat," but I think the thing with the Miami Heat this year is they've really, really struggled in the clutch.
21:54
I mean, you're talking about a team that's 14 and eight in clutch time. You know, NBA.com, they f- define clutch as the last five minutes of the game when a point differential is five or less.
22:04
This Heat team, without Jimmy Butler, they cannot score in the clutch. 14 and 28 net rating of minus 16.2. I think this Bulls team is, they put something together with Josh Giddey.
22:15
Um, so I, I think they should be able to win that game. And then I'm, I'm blindly playing the Kings as well. Um, also think that, um, that Heat-Bulls game could go over as well. Okay.
22:25
Raheem, we'll do it for longer next time, I promise. Thank you so much. No doubt. Thanks for having me. I know we had some technical difficulties, but I appreciate y'all having me on. No, absolutely. Let's do it again.
22:34
Raheem Palmer from The Ringer and The Athletic. Again, uh, I-M Rostradamus. We'll spell that, uh, we'll spell that out for you. It was on the screen as well for those who could see.
22:44
Um, always like checking in with Raheem. Mike Somich, multiple sports, all his bets next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Unlock your winning edge with an unbeatable offer.
22:58
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For those who have not, uh, experienced Stadium Swim outside, just a great way to watch and bet on sports.
23:51
Uh, this gentleman is not only the co-host of Ready, Set, Bet, but he, uh, he does a, a horse racing show each and every week that we want to, uh, highlight here, and he has bets in multiple sports.
24:00
It's the great Mike Somich, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, about to regale us with Somo Bombs. How you doing, man? I'm doing great, Gil. I'm doing great. This is a phenomenal time of the year.
24:11
We've got the Kentucky Derby headed to- toward the post here in a couple weeks. We've got NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs. This is one of my favorite times every single year.
24:18
I feel like it's underrated because it's not March Madness and there's no NFL, but there is still just a plethora of sports to be able to fire at. Completely agree.
24:25
Beginning of N- NBA and NHL playoffs, draft, it's awesome. Um, tennis on clay, let's not forget, 'cause I just got destroyed this morning. [laughs] How can we forget that?
24:34
Um, okay, let me, let me just say this out, off the bat. Let's start with the horse racing. When is the horse racing show for everybody?
24:40
Yeah, so VSiN at the Track, road to the Kentucky Derby, every Friday at 2:15 Eastern, 11:15 Pacific. We're live over on the YouTube page, @VSiNLive. Make sure you subscribe, hit the notifications.
24:51
You can be there every time that we go live. You can talk in the chat to us, so we'll answer questions during the breaks and during the live show as well.
24:58
So just a great time talking horses over there and getting ready for the, uh, first Saturday in May. Who's your guest this week? Uh, we're not sure this week, but, uh, your boy Chris Felica- Oh...
25:06
coming on next week for us. Oh. So we're gonna have Felica on the show as well, get his opinion.
25:10
Uh, we're, we're trying to actually get Griffin Johnson, who's a huge YouTuber and, uh, and a, a big TikToker as well, over three million followers on each, and he actually owns one of the Derby horses this year, Sandman, who's one of your top contenders.
25:22
Okay, so let's d- let's do five sports, and let's start with it. Derby thoughts from you. Journalism's gonna be tough. Right now four to one he's your favorite.
25:29
I, I think that he should be closer to five to two, three to one. So if you do wanna bet him I suggest getting a future ticket in now. But it's gonna be a really interesting run for the roses, specifically pace-wise.
25:39
We've got a couple Bafferts and Citizen Bowling, Rod- Rodriguez that want the front. And then East Avenue able to qualify through the Bluegrass, his final opportunity to do so. Another horse that injects pace.
25:48
We've already seen one of the international horses bow out, and that's where a lot of the pace has come from the last couple years. So going to be very interesting what type of pace we get.
25:56
I do think it is, if it's not Journalism, I think this is absolutely wide open. I like Tapon Street.
26:01
I like a horse named Sovereignty who has an amazing turn of foot, but he's gonna come from way back in the pack, so he'll have to deal with a lot of traffic.
26:08
And I think Grande for Todd Pletcher and Rapole, who had the favorite last year and the favorite in Forte the year before, before he had to scratch, is a interesting long shot as well after finishing second up in the wood.
26:18
As soon as you said journalism is tough, I, I wonder how many people in the audience thought the same. I was like, "Yeah, in this day and age, journalism is... Oh, it's a horse." [laughs] Oh, I see. Yeah. Um, uh, NBA.
26:27
You too, uh, have a thought on the Clippers series, sir. Me too. I mean, I, I, I, I was on VSiN Live yesterday over on, uh, at, uh, VSiN Live with Patrick Meyer and Dustin Sweetilson, and I love this Clippers team.
26:40
I can't help it. I don't trust them to, like, bet a 30 to one future to win the title.
26:44
I don't trust them to bet the West, 'cause at some point this house of cards does fall down with Kawhi Leonard trying to be healthy for two straight months and what we've seen from James Harden in the playoffs.
26:52
But this first round matchup to me is just a, a matchup made in heaven for the Clippers. I played them plus 145. I know Raheem got a better number than me. I missed the really open on it. Uh, it's at minus 110 now.
27:03
I have this series as Clippers minus 135 as the fair number, so I'm still betting the Clippers at minus 110 here, and I even went a little overboard. I, I played two and a half games with the Clippers.
27:12
So Clippers to win in four of five, that's a plus 400. This, for me, matchup wise, this is the dream matchup here for the Clippers.
27:19
Uh, you've got a, got a Denver team that is just in flux right now with everything that's happening inside the organization. I'm not sure how they're going to be able to stop the Clippers offense as well.
27:28
Zubac has been phenomenal inside. Harden has pretty much the perfect setup for Harden. You've got the big man who can catch lobs. You've got multiple three-point shooters on the outside.
27:36
And then you've got Kawhi Leonard, who's playing like Kawhi Leonard from 2019 right now. Now, will it last four rounds?
27:42
I doubt it, but I, I'm willing to bet them here in the first round at the, the minus 110 price, as well as laying two and a half games. All right, to Major League Baseball. You have a total today.
27:50
[laughs] Yeah, let's go to, uh, a band box down there in, uh, in Tampa Bay. We've got the Rays taking on, uh, the Red Sox, and, and Sean Newman on the hill for the Red Sox, one of my favorite pitchers to be able to fade.
28:02
I thought this total should be sitting at nine and a half or 10. Right now you can get nine minus 115 on the over.
28:07
Uh, so I'm gonna take the over here with the Red Sox and Rays, two teams that, uh, have been able to hit the baseball recently. So I expect some runs down there in Tampa today. All right, NFL draft, eight days away.
28:16
I know you love the draft as much as anybody. Um, this has been, you know, it's been janky, I think that's the technical term, in terms of what's been available, what you, what is, what is very appealing with bets.
28:26
But you have found a trio of bets that you like. Um, and, uh, and the first couple have to do with teams, specific teams' first picks. What do you have here? Yeah, this whole draft is janky, not just how it's come up.
28:38
I, I think this is the worst draft we've seen from a talent perspective in the last decade. I, I just, I, there's one player in my mind that's actually a marquee blue chip player, that's Abdul Carter.
28:46
After that, kind of feels like a crapshoot here. But it does set up well for a couple teams to be able to address needs. The first one, the Dallas Cowboys, sitting at 12.
28:55
Uh, wide receiver is plus 110 for their first pick. They need offensive weapons. And when you look at the board, Jeanty probably goes six to the Raiders. Warren probably goes 10 to the Bears.
29:04
That leaves T- uh, Tet McMillan sitting there at the 12 spot. I don't see him going any higher than that.
29:09
You've s- you know, uh, war room's really kind of going back and forth on whether or not he is that number one wide receiver.
29:15
If he's there at 12, I think the Cowboys kind of have to take him, and I believe he is going to be sitting there, so I'm h- willing to take the plus 110 price there on the Cowboys to take a wide receiver.
29:24
And then I kind of like a flyer a little bit later in the draft. You guys talked about running backs and how high will Jeanty go and, you know, is there going to be this resurgence in the f- in a couple segments ago.
29:32
Like, to me, Washington Commanders are sitting in a perfect position to take a running back. A running back is a finishing piece.
29:38
That's the key to when you really wanna bring that running back in, because you don't get eight, nine years of production.
29:44
You're looking for that three, four, five-year window where a running back is very effective, and it's like a luxury pick. You don't need to address a bunch of other needs, but it can really help out your offense.
29:54
To me, that's describing this Commanders team to a T. They need to add a running back. They need to get younger at that position.
29:59
You've got the wide receiver weapons, you've got the quarterback, and you have a shot at having the number two running back sitting there on the board when they come up to draft.
30:07
And Hamilton, I think he makes a ton of sense for this team. We've heard both of the Ohio State running backs talked about with this Redskins org- or I'm sorry, with this Commanders organization as well.
30:17
[laughs] I think the Commanders taking a running back first pick at 10 to 1 is a, quite a bit of value because I do see it as one of those needs that they can fill to really complete this team.
30:25
It's interesting, uh, because they are, you know, I, I don't know what the, what the, uh, Commodores brass Uh, thinks about the, you know, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, I guess Chris Rodriguez, Jeremy McNichols.
30:36
So they've got backs that they like. I wonder if they would actually draft a running back in the first round. It's an interesting thought. And then you had a, a player in terms of his draft position that you like.
30:46
Yeah, Calvin Banks Jr. right now the third, uh, offensive line, offensive tackle really, on the board in a lot of places. But we've seen Memeo drop and Banks go up over the last two weeks.
30:55
I think we're gonna continue to see that move. We've seen a Scoutward scouting report come out recently which has Banks as the number two offensive lineman on the board versus Memeo.
31:04
I think that 13 and a half is way too high right now for Calvin Banks Jr. He's minus 150 to the under. I think there's still quite a bit of value in that.
31:11
If you look at the draft board, teams between seven and 13 need offensive line help, and I wouldn't be shocked if Banks ends up being the second offensive lineman off the board, not the third one.
31:20
You can get second offensive lineman on Banks at plus 600, but I, I like, I love the under here sitting at 13 and a half.
31:26
I think he's off the board, if not early in that, that seventh pick, I think he ends up going nine or 11. Okay.
31:33
The NHL playoffs, a special numbers game investigation reveals that the NHL playoffs begin this Saturday, the Stanley Cup playoffs. Um, and there are a couple, there are a few series established already.
31:44
Uh, namely one of them, the Vegas Golden Knights, our own Vegas Golden Knights here in Las Vegas, um, taking on the Minnesota Wild, I believe it is, in a first round series. You are correct.
31:54
That's some hard-hitting investigative journalism there, Gil. Nailed it. Thank you. Great work. Thank you. You're just crushing it.
31:58
[laughs] Uh, yeah, we got the Golden Knights taking on the Wild, and to me this is just a, a mismatch. I think the Golden Knights, one of the two best teams in the West.
32:05
The Wild, while they had started to play a little bit better down the stretch, they've still had issues scoring the puck, and, and Vegas at home is just an absolute bear.
32:12
I think it's gonna be very difficult for the Wild to be able to take a game in Vegas. Uh, right now the Wild have a pretty, or I'm sorry, the Knights a pretty heavy favorite for the series sitting at minus 190.
32:22
I think this is over in four, five, or six here, so I'm happy to lay the one and a half with the Golden Knights. You can get them minus one and a half games at the plus 110 price.
32:29
So we'll, we'll lay the game and a half with the Knights in this series. And the Hurricanes and the Devils are established in the East as one of the series. What did you play there? Very similar handicap here.
32:38
Uh, again, the Hurricanes a heavy favorite in the series. I think they should be. I think they have a chance at, at sweeping their home games. That means that it's three wins in five games.
32:46
I expect they're able to take one from a younger Devils team here as well. Defensively they are dominant. Offense is going to be the issue with this Hurricanes team, but the Devils not great on the defensive end.
32:55
I think they have enough offense to get this done, make this a quick series as well. So we'll go Hurricanes minus a game and a half, minus 115 in the spot.
33:02
Man, you got a lot of picks to log for the, uh, G Bank Best Bets coming up. [laughs] I- Um- Even counts busy... and then the other segment. Who, who's in, who's in the Stanley Cup final, Mike? Ooh, good question.
33:12
Uh, I'm gonna go with the Tampa Bay Lightning versus the Gold- the Vegas Golden Knights. Tampa Bay, Vegas. Not mention the Washington Capitals. Omitted from that sentence the Washington Capitals. Thank you, Mike.
33:25
Yes, sir. Appreciate it, man. Have a good one, guys. Five sports deep with Michael Samich, everybody.
33:30
Uh, ready, set, bet, and of course, uh, now doing a weekly horse racing show where he was able to book Christopher Felika. Wow. Tough get. That's a tough get right there. One of the toughest gets there is.
33:40
Uh, we'll recap all the bets, and there's a bevy of them, next right here on the Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on the Numbers Game, Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlan in the hizzy. Uh, we get tweets, we get texts. I'll read a tweet first.
34:02
Paper Mike: "Not only was I on Irani," talking about tennis, he goes, "but I had her played with Bibi," talking about Bianca Andreescu, "who also lost in a tiebreaker." Yeah. Was she up 5-2 as well in the tiebreaker?
34:13
Uh, we get te- the, the, the best part about the show, not the best part, best part is the listeners.
34:18
Second best part is we have all of our guests sort of listen to the other guests, and then they [laughs] sort of comment. Sometimes it's like complimentary.
34:25
[laughs] Sometimes it's like a, it's like a little guest-on-guest crime kind of thing. Uh, Jason was, Jason was, uh, angry about the, uh, he wasn't angry, but he was, he was not bullish on the Pirates, right?
34:35
He thinks they're the worst team in baseball. You even brought up, "Hey, would you bet him worst record?" Yeah. He's like, "28 to 1, I might do that." Uh, [laughs] Fel- is this Felika who wrote this?
34:43
He also made me realize, I was like, who, w- you know, we were talking about people st- uh, bringing that up about the Pirates early, but I was like, "Who said that? It must have been Jason." It was Jason. Yeah.
34:51
Um, and then the response from Felika to that was, "At least he's not holding a grudge against Skeens and Pittsburgh for losing that Merrill bet last year." [laughs] And Montesano texted- Ugh...
35:03
about that, buttressing his point about how the, the, the Pirates are a loser organization. Uh, apparently the Pirates last night, is this, wow, I did not know this, the Pirates had 8,340 fans there last night.
35:20
That sounds bad for early in the season. The fourth game of the season with a paid attendance below 9,000. All of last season, uh, they only had one game with a paid attendance below 9,000.
35:33
You're four games in and you've already gotten that. Yeah, that's not good. Yeah. Not great, Bob. Not great. The, uh- Not great, Bob... what, uh, it's probably still, like, 3X what the Marlins are doing.
35:42
That's why I just assume that all the time. Plenty of seats available. Had to take a shot at the Marlins, didn't you? Yeah. That was- Major League Baseball, they've got it all figured out.
35:50
Rob Manfred's got it all figured out. It's time for our best bets of the day, official best bets from G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
35:57
Uh, I have two tennis bets remaining, and like I said, uh, we had two huge dogs just absolutely gack away matches this morning.
36:05
So, uh, proceed with caution, yellow blinking light, 'cause we'll figure out a way perhaps to gack these, but we are on two more dogs.
36:11
Diana Schneider plus 116 against Elise Mertens, and I believe I mispronounced this last time, by the way, Kelly, on the last name. I got three out of four names correct also. Tianxua Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaoana.
36:24
I mispronounced that last name. Okay. Uh, French by way of Madagascar. I think that's exactly what I said. Nah. [laughs] Plus 245 against Jacqueline Cristian. Um, I think those prices are similar right now.
36:37
Let me, uh, let me verify. I don't wanna lie about such things. Uh, plus 256, you can actually get slightly better number on, uh, Rakuten Manga Rajona.
36:48
And in terms of the other match itself, um, yeah, right around the price in Stuttgart. Stuttgart on, uh, Schneider, right around the exact way. Actually, she's minus 101, so you can't quite get the same price I did.
37:01
So that's kind of borderline playable. See all the... I'm sure that'll get me home. Stuttgart. Stuttgart. Kelly's got a bevy. What do you got? I do. Uh, all right, tonight's in the play-in, Heat/Bulls under 220.
37:13
Uh, hit on this a little bit yesterday. Do expect, uh, this to be slowed down a little bit pace-wise, see these defenses play a little bit better, and the offensive stru- uh, offensive struggle a little bit more.
37:22
So under 220 tonight, game one, only bet I've made so far for Saturday. Just trying to make sure I'm not lying to you right now. Yes, ga- only game one bet is Pacers laid the four and a half early.
37:34
Also played the series price against the Bucs. Um, uh, I, I think there's a lot of back and forth about that.
37:39
I understand some of the Bucs backing, but Damian Lillard looking like he's not gonna play, uh, wanted to jump on that price early 'cause it has gone up a bit.
37:47
Clippers, me, everybody else, and everybody's mother's on the Clippers apparently in this, uh, series. And, and can I just interject? Yeah. 'Cause I'm glad you said it that way. Yeah.
37:55
Against the best player on the planet. Do, do you know one person who's on the Nuggets? No. One. No, I will say- Do you know what usually happens when that happens? Yeah, I know. Yeah.
38:04
I w- I will s- I think Raheem brought it up. If I had to price this, if I had to price this, yeah, it'd probably be about a coin flip.
38:11
But man, if you're staring at the Nuggets with home court advantage with Nikola Jokic at plus money, I can't, I can't argue with you. Um, anyways, I did add on Clippers, though, to win at six at four to one.
38:22
I, I was trying to figure out where this line was gonna move 'cause you might be able to get a better price on that if you actually wait. But yeah, for them to win in six, uh, at four to one.
38:30
And then a couple of player props I made, [smacks lip] still waiting for some of these to pop up at that. Clippers to win in six at four to two. Kelly is, is not math challenged. You said four to one on them.
38:39
Win in six four to one, which would've been awesome. You would've got a great price on that. Yeah. What did I, wait, what did I say? You said win in six four to one. Oh, okay. That's okay.
38:48
Um, Anthony Edwards, uh, to lead in the series in scoring at plus 185. Anthony Edwards to lead the series in three-pointers made at plus 105.
38:57
I, I think this Lakers-Timberwolves series is gonna be exciting, but man, Anthony Edwards is gonna have to carry a bulk of the scoring load for the Timberwolves. Yeah.
39:05
Uh, by the way, I said Raheem worked at, uh, at The Athletic when it's actually the Action Network, so that's my bad too. Believe me, we all, we all, uh, stumble here.
39:13
Um, by the way, let me just say this about the NBA before we move on from that. We are having a NBA playoff contest. This is authored by the great Carl Sack.
39:24
It is similar to how we did the NCAA bracket challenge, but this is only, like, NBA hardo handicappers competing.
39:34
Known people like yourself, like Drew Dincic, like Zach Cohen, like JBT, like, I think Carl's in it himself. Is Carl in it? If Carl's in it, it's gonna be weird 'cause everybody's gonna play Carl's plays. I don't know.
39:46
I think Aaron Renning has been invited, so every, a lot of people. And then there's gonna be, like, non-NBA hardos like myself who are just in there to pollute it and Patrick Beverley up the game- [laughs]...
39:56
just to be annoying, uh, and game theorize. So, uh, that's exciting. We're gonna do it in the same format. We're gonna do a certain amount of bets in the first round required.
40:04
Second round, third round, first prize, $3,000. Second prize- So a little-... 1,500. Third, 500.
40:09
So a little bit like we did with the college basketball one and a little bit like Matt Human's college football ones that he does throughout the season. Correct. Okay. So that kinda happened.
40:15
And we will be tracking it on this show. All right, nice.
40:17
And I'm just saying the reason I bring it up is 'cause all of the, uh, there, there is such a consensus opinion on the Clippers to the point where it should be scary for everybody. Yeah.
40:27
And there is a consensus opinion long-term on the Thunder that should be scary to everybody, my humble opinion. Uh, Will Hill had best bets in multiple sports.
40:37
You're looking at me like, "Yeah, buddy, it's gonna be the Clippers in the first round." [laughs] Oh, no, no, I ain't looking at you like that.
40:41
I'm just looking at the clock and looking at how many more graphics of bets we gotta get through. I know, I know. Have, have we ever, have we ever ran into a wall on this show ever? Ever? This might be entertaining.
40:49
Oh, wait, we have? Uh, Bulls, Will Hill's best. Uh, he's on the Bulls tonight and the Kings, uh, in the two nine, 10 play-ins. Remember, the winner of tonight's game plays the loser of last night's games on Friday.
41:03
That's how this works. And the loser of tonight's game, games, is donezo. Magic team total under 94 and a half, uh, in, uh, I guess that w- w- how do you- That's game one against the Celtics.
41:15
Game one against the Celtics, pardon me. That's this weekend. Rockets plus one and a half games in their series against the Warriors. Pistons to win their series against the Knicks at plus 330.
41:23
Pistons to win specifically four games to two, nine to one from Will Hill. Will Hill also with a couple, uh, with a baseball bet. Blue Jays, Braves under four, first five today.
41:34
And in the NFL draft, Raiders to draft a defensive lineman/edge positional player 10 to one with their first pick. So he is, he is going anti-Jetty there.
41:45
JBT is on the Bulls tonight in the nine, 10 game, uh, in the east against the Heat. He also, in terms of, uh, series prices, Clippers series price plus 130 against the Nuggets. He got the best of that.
41:55
Pistons, Knicks over five and a half games. He thinks it'll be competitive. I really like that bet. I, I might end up playing that. Haven't yet though. Pistons series price, he took a shot at that too, plus 330.
42:07
And then KAT, Karl-Anthony Towns to lead the series in three-pointers made 12 to one. I like that bet from JBT. Mm-hmm. Uh, also with our official best bets, they keep on keeping on.
42:18
Jason Weingarten with a couple baseball, a few baseball.
42:20
Padres today, Guardians today, Braves today, his three baseball bets, and he added some, uh, Rookie Sasaki to win the National League Rookie of the Year at plus 270. Jason Weingarten.
42:33
Look at Jason Weingarten coming through with some bets. Firing today. Firing from Jason. [laughs] Joe Peta with his daily bets. Joe Peta grinding. He's on the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Mariners in Major League Baseball.
42:44
Blue Jays and Tigers are dogs. Mariners are favorite. All three interleague contests today Um, we also had bets from Raheem Palmer from the Action Network, Kelly, I don't know if you know that, and Ring- and The Ringer.
42:58
Nailed it. He's on, he's on the Bulls tonight against the Heat in the 910 East game. He's on the Kings tonight, laying the points out west against the Mavericks. Losers are gone. Kings minus four and a half in that one.
43:09
As far as the series themselves, Clippers to win the series. Uh, if you guys can go back to that last one, please. Clippers to win the series plus 160 against the Nuggets.
43:17
Lakers-Timberwolves over five and a half games in that series at minus 175. And finally, finally, Mike Somich, Red Sox to raise over nine runs in baseball today. Clippers to win the series, him too, against the Nuggets.
43:29
Clippers minus two and a half games in that series at four to one. NHL playoffs, Golden Knights minus one and a half games at plus 110. Hurricanes minus one and a half games, uh, in the Eastern Conference in, in hockey.
43:41
Uh, and then, uh, was that it for Mike, or did he have one more sport? Oh, no, we got one more. He had NFL draft bets as well, but it's all courtesy [laughs] they don't, they don't wanna even put it up on the screen.
43:48
[laughs] Uh, he's got, he's got Washington to pick a running back first. Running back 10 to one Cowboys pick wide receiver at plus 110, and Kelvin Banks Jr. under 13 and a half draft position at minus 150.
43:59
Thank you, Kelly Bidlin, for being thorough. GBank, the official bank of VSiN, upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new GBank Visa Signature Card customers.
44:07
First, new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
44:13
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at visa.com/gbank.
44:23
That's visa.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. And I did it again. In time. Money Moves with Stormy, Dex, and Joy from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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