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Apr 17, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 17, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 17, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:18
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate you, uh, allowing us to be part of your morning each and every morning.
0:19
And when I say we, I mean, uh, not only me, Gil Alexander, and Kelly Bidlin, uh, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, but also, uh, back there in the, uh, corner.
0:27
We, we never give these guys the, uh, the due. That's my fault.
0:30
But, uh, Sean McCollum, who, uh, is not only great at making sure all of our guests come to us courtesy of the progressive guest line, but he checks, like, segments in advance to make sure that they're available as well.
0:41
Uh, Larry Mir is back there. Uh, Matt is, uh, sick today. Matt Hicks, our normal director- Yeah... out sick. But he's always- Him and Larry do the great job of man- Oh...
0:49
managing between Sharp Money and us in the morning. They kind of trade places. So and then we've got, we've got the pinch hitter, Justin Monteith, who's been helping us out for, I don't know, three- Pinch hitting...
0:58
three, four years now. He was working with us at Visa when he was here in Vegas, now he's out in Colorado doing graphics remote. So appreciate the help. We are nothing without them.
1:07
And when I say nothing, I mean the null set. Do you know how I, I'm, I'll, Justin's so good and detail-oriented, he was trying to run graphics this morning, I believe, while he was dropping his kids off at school. Wow.
1:19
Trying to do it in the car. And I had to tell him, "No, Justin. No, don't worry about that. Get out of the car before you do that." They're like, "Daddy, what are you doing?" He's like, "None of your business."
1:28
[laughs] Um, maybe. I don't know if that was exactly the exchange. [laughs] Uh, w- still to come, by the way, uh, Will Hill will join us at the table, at The Shield. This is, we're like the last VSiN show he's done.
1:39
We're, we'll get into that. Uh, Will Hill- [laughs]... will grace us with our- The popular guy... with our presence. Uh, Matt Brown, also our old Primetime Action buddy, is gonna talk NFL Draft and RBC Heritage with us.
1:50
Do you have RBC Heritage thoughts as well? I do. Yeah, I do. Yeah. All right, we'll get into that. We'll get into those. We'll get into that. Should I read some tweets first?
1:54
He, uh- Or should I just read some- We, we did, we did long shots yesterday, and we were talking about some Masters. Let's call long shots. Uh-huh. 'Cause he was there for a day.
2:01
I was asking about some of the, some of the experience. He was at the Masters, yes. I, I'm gonna wait for him to tell you, but I learned something yesterday about the Masters- Oh, wow...
2:09
that maybe, maybe everybody knows, that I just didn't know until, until this point. Well, I lear- It's funny you say that. I learned a Masters fact that I was blown away by. My mind was blown.
2:19
I wonder if it's the same one. I doubt it. Uh, we got tweets at VSiN. I doubt it, but my mind was blown. [laughs] Bainbridge Deweese, "What was it?" Blown. [laughs] It's two syllable word. Blown, Gil.
2:30
A- a- and I will say real quick- Yeah... it has something to do with the, uh, the old selectivity of the membership over there at Augusta. Oh, is that right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Activate the trampoline springs on Homa.
2:42
[laughs] Bainbridge Deweese, "It's the Monopoly Man that doesn't have the monocle." I know, I made the correction. "And the craziest Mandela effect thing is that C-3PO has a silver leg in the original Star Wars."
2:53
Yeah, that is w- I kind of have that memory as well, that there was like a weird C-3PO version. Well, I don't, did it get, did it get shot off and had to be replaced or something?
3:03
Uh, I don't think they were shooting off things at that point. [laughs] That was later Star Wars? I think that was l- Well, not in the, not in the desert or anything like that. I could be wrong. I'm not Mr. Star Wars.
3:12
Uh, Larry Fresh, uh, Gil doing sports talk segments. He has a picture of that, uh, [laughs] Dr. Pepper guy, the kid that goes, "Oh, I love the Wildcat." [laughs] I'm glad you enjoy.
3:23
Uh, Spence, "Katmandu is the Seger jam." Brandon Webb, "Ramblin' Gamblin' Man, Rock and Roll Never Forgets, top two."
3:30
And then Hoops by Hoot says, "Who would've thought that after all these years on VSiN that Corey Seager wouldn't even end up being the most mentioned Seager on a Numbers Game?" [laughs] It's very true. Well done.
3:39
We have, uh, had a history of Corey Seager bets here on this show, none of which cashed because we're always betting the wrong thing. Um, we, we even had him MVP one year. Yeah.
3:50
And then he ends up MVP of the championship series and the World Series, just to mock us. Who was it, uh, no, it wasn't Seager. Who w- who was it with the dislocated shoulder that I bet the under on?
4:00
[laughs] This is one of the very first Primetime Actions. Uh, the Dodgers are in the World Series. This is the year of the pandemic. Who was that? Bellinger? Bellinger. Oh, yeah. Bellinger.
4:08
Cody Bellinger had hurt his shoulder, and so Kelly bet under a half RBI. RBI or something like that.
4:14
And then Bellinger proceeds to just tomahawk the first pitch out of, [laughs] out of the stadium, out of the, out of the park, I should say, and Kelly immediately shouts, "Shoulder's fine." [laughs] Shoulder's fine.
4:24
[laughs] That's great. Um, all right. Oh, man. Oh, and Steve Fezzik has, uh, tweeted us his favorite, uh, Bob Seger song. Are you curious what Steve Fezzik's fa- curious about? What's he got?
4:35
Uh- I, I'm impressed with- He s- he said Turn the Page. Okay. I don't know this one. I don't know. I'd have to hear it. Again, if we heard it, though- Right... we'd be like- Sure we'd know it...
4:44
"Oh, yeah, that one," 'cause we've heard it 18 times. Did you add NFL draft bets? Me and JBT were going with. I did. Um, I did. Let's see. What did I add yesterday?
4:53
All these days are running together, especially since we're, uh, you know, kind of uphill. What's interesting is I had one NFL draft bet. Uh. Within the last two days, I have an explosion of NFL draft bets.
5:02
I don't know if I'm making another NFL draft bet. Yeah. Oh, so okay, so that was, that was kind of my b- well, one of my big things is, like, we were talking about this yesterday a little bit.
5:11
Like, I am, I'm glad I made my Dallas Turner eighth overall pick. I, I, I didn't get 340, I got 320 though, and that's still way better than what you can get right now. Sure. I just bet that a few days ago.
5:21
Um, still, I'm, I'm, I won't- Specifically to be the eighth pick... to be the eighth pick. Yeah. And I bet him top 10 as well at minus 115. That's where you're under nine and a half I liked b- Yeah... I liked better.
5:30
I wish I would've bet that instead. But, um, I like that eight- eighth pick. It just feels right now,
5:36
I, I, I should really stop saying this 'cause I haven't bet it, but I think, [laughs] I think Jayden Daniels is going number two. I real- I actually think that is- You think who?
5:44
You think Jayden Daniels is number- Yeah, I think he's number two. I think we could put our- I do, too... I, if it's not pen we can write that in with, I think it is very heavy pencil we can write that in with.
5:52
And, and talking to my buddies in DC, they seem to confirm that. They're like, "The buzz feels like it's Jayden Daniels." After that, though, man, like I- Oh, I don't know... three, four, five, six Seven?
6:02
I, I, who knows May I just say as a Commodores fan, I'm pumped about Jayden Daniels, 'cause I know a lot of people like- Oh, I, me too...
6:08
a lot of, a lot of, uh, Commodes fans are like, "Oh, this is RG III all over again. He's gonna get hurt." I go, "Uh, difference is he's 6'4"," I get it's slight of build. Well, okay.
6:17
I know it's tough, I know it's tough to see this through a, w- through the fan lens, right? But you would take RG III every time over again. Like, if you had to do that over again- Oh, if he doesn't get-...
6:28
you would do it in a heartbeat... if he doesn't get hurt? Are you kidding me? I'm just, like, before- Yeah... he got hurt. Yeah. Like, you would draft him. No, I know, right... still draft him. Yeah.
6:35
I, that's what I'm saying. Are you kidding me? Of course I would. So, like, you can't think that way. Like, you can't think that about your team and players. He's the NFL Rookie of the Year. He beat Andrew Luck.
6:42
Right [laughs] yes, like you would take him in a heartbeat. Justifiably. Yeah. He was awesome, and it's funny how people remember him, and that was, "Oh, he's so suck..." Yeah, he got hurt. Mm-hmm.
6:50
So- So yeah, I, I like Daniels there. I do th- I think we... Like, I'm at the point where I think we're gonna get a trade between three, four, and five. I think we're gonna get a trade there.
6:59
It's probably gonna blow up my bets. It's probably g- may blow up your bets a bit. The ones that I don't expect to win. Right, yeah. Yeah. Um, but you know, if there wasn't a trade, I love my Marvin Harrison.
7:08
That was my first bet, was Marvin Harrison to the Cardinals. Um, I, me and you are kind of oppo. I, I, oh, I guess I will say oppo on five, 'cause [laughs] they're either going wide receiver or offensive line. Yeah.
7:17
Like, I don't know where else they- Or they're trading somebody... or they're trading, yeah. Yeah. Right? So if they still have the pick, I have a feeling you, you and I are gonna be oppo on that.
7:25
Um, a- like, Odunze, I think that makes a ton of sense at six. I w- I, I, I really do. Uh, I have the quarterbacks. I just did that little m- uh, the little middle thing, so I, I really don't have a bet there.
7:36
Um, I did bet, yesterday I added the wide receivers over six and a half at plus 190. Oh, you did? Okay. Yeah, I, it's just... I, I m- uh, I added that, and then I added Keon Coleman under 46 and a half.
7:46
Nobody should be surprised by that. Florida State guy, yes, but I watched that dude all season long. [laughs] I don't understand how he's...
7:52
I, I, I understand he could- Did you know you were watching exhibition football? Yeah, exactly. Did you know you were watching? I, I d- I, I didn't know it. No. I don't think he knew he was playing it.
7:58
Yeah, I don't think he knew it, no. Especially when he transferred from Michigan State. No, he didn't know that, no. But he didn't know that.
8:02
Um, it's part of the over- overall thought, though, on the wide receivers, right? I, I don't know for sure if he's go- he's going in the first round, Gil, but that's not about him and his talent.
8:12
It's more about how, how many other good wide receivers there are, and every time I open up a new mock draft, there's a new wide receiver I feel like sneaking in the first round.
8:21
So yeah, I bet, I bet the over six and a half at plus 190. I, e- that's a bet I'm willing to lose at this point. Okay. Um, but, yeah, let's go to the NBA for a second. Yeah.
8:29
Because it, w- we've talked about series prices and all that. We talked extensively about it yesterday, a little bit today.
8:35
Um, what about, like, just futures, for like the average person who's r- who's landing on the NBA playoffs now, and is like, "Okay, um, I think I'm up to date.
8:44
I kind of didn't really follow the NBA that closely, but I kind of know, you know, Denver's the champ, and Boston's the best in the east," and they get all that.
8:50
And they're like, "I wanna make a bet in a futures market, east, west, or for the whole title." Where's the value in your opinion on this? I- You're gonna say the Mavericks, aren't you?
9:00
I am, because I, I just made, I made those just a couple days ago. Yeah. So basically since the playoff field has been set. Um, I do. Y- does that mean I think they're better than Denver?
9:09
No, not necessarily, but they don't, they, they won't have to face Denver until the Western Conference Finals. So there is a little bit of that going w- uh, going with it, too. They're gonna play the Clippers.
9:18
I bet them game one. I bet them in the series over the Clippers. I'm probably gonna bet some alts as well. Um- Let's ask it like this.
9:26
Is the Da- uh, are the Dallas Mavericks in the west, coming out of the west, a better futures play getting by Denver or anybody else, a better futures play than the Sixers are in the east getting by the Celtics or anybody else?
9:38
Um- You can only bet one of those, Mavericks or Sixers. No. Well, hold on. Let me look up what the current numbers are. That is...
9:45
No, I th- I, I think there's a better chance- Does the Mavericks avoid the Nuggets till the f- the Conference Finals, and the Sixers avoid the Celtics till the Conference Finals?
9:53
I think there's a better chance th- th- that Dallas gets by Denver than Philly gets by Boston. All right. But it's small. Let me just ask you this. If Boston loses at any point, or if the Heat get in and make a run,
10:07
what is the level of head explosion from you NBA hardos at that point? Well, I, I, I, I flat out told JVT this yesterday. I'm like, "I'm betting against the Heat tonight. I am not doing what I did last year."
10:18
[laughs] I'm not putting myself in the position to have as good of a regular season as I had betting last year and this year- Right... to give so much of it back in the playoffs.
10:27
While I strolled into the playoffs and just bet the Heat left and right. Right, exactly. Yes, exactly. Yeah. So that will not be happening this year. Um, the Celtics, though, this is their, this is...
10:37
I'm, I'm so excited to see this race, because Boston, maybe you've had excuses before in the past. This is all about Brown and Tatum now. Like, this is, you have everything you could possibly ask for on this roster.
10:51
If you're gonna step up and win an NBA championship, your stars gotta play like stars.
10:56
And if this team loses, it's because they couldn't put together enough consistent good games between the two of them, that they end up going down. And I, yeah, like I, we've seen it before.
11:05
We've seen those two stumble and have problems before. Just to clarify, you have both a Dallas Western Conference and a Philly Eastern Conference ticket, though? Yes, correct, yes. And you have Dallas to win it all.
11:14
I do. I have both to win it all. And both to win it all. Yeah, both to win it. Okay. My Philly bets were made a little while ago.
11:18
Those were, those were made as soon as Joel Embiid came back from injury, injury, and I saw he'd scored the ba- saw him score the basketball one time, and I was like, "Okay, good enough."
11:25
And you're doing the thing that I did in the NFL, where I had every combination except for KC beating San Francisco in the Super Bowl. Oh.
11:30
You've got Boston to beat OKC in the finals, and Dallas to beat Boston in the NBA finals. We're, we're gonna, we're gonna talk some more about those tomorrow, 'cause there are- Okay...
11:38
some interesting odds out there on those, and I think a lot of value. I'm just glad the playoffs are here. Well, well, two more play-ins to get through, and then of course the eight-nines as well.
11:45
Um, or the game two for the eighth seat, I should point out. Matt Brown, NFL draft props next. A VSiN website in full effect mode. Well, I'll be sure for you.
12:00
VSiN.com, best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. I went to the, uh, VSiN.com website today, Kelly, and you know what I saw front and center? What'd you find?
12:11
JVT on the play-in games tonight between the Sixers and the Heat specifically. Uh, also Adam Burkes, MLB bets And a whole bunch of golf. A little RBC Heritage. Yeah. Little, uh, little Corales Puntacana- Mm-hmm...
12:24
from Wes Reynolds. By the way, you, uh, you have any RBC Heritage to share with us? I do. I do actually have a couple bets, uh, that I did make this week. By the way, visa.com, check it out. The, uh...
12:35
I'll tell you, our boy, Berger, he's playing down there in Corales. Daniel Berger. It's been a, it's been a rough, rough on the comeback trail so far. Yeah.
12:43
But I think, I think I'm still, I think I'm gonna dive in with it. He's 40 to 1 in a crap field. Ooh, I might ju- Yeah... I might jump in on that with you. Yeah, so- Let's go, Daniel Berger. I, I, I...
12:53
W- it was not one of Wes's bets yesterday on, or Around the World with W- Wes Reynolds, podcast up now. Um, was not one of his bets yesterday, but, um, 40 to 1 in that field, I think I'm gonna bet him.
13:03
The big one, though, is RBC Heritage. That's getting played this week.
13:06
We, this is the second year in a row where we have this kind of funky thing where it's, it's The Masters, [laughs] and then you're straight to an elevated event. Um,
13:16
Scottie Scheffler still hasn't withdraw, [laughs] withdrawn from this event. He's partying. He's, uh, he's been partying after The Masters, uh, s- sounds like he's still playing. This is Scheffler's holding it in? Yeah.
13:25
Oh, yeah, [laughs] that's right. Matt and I were kind of talking about this yesterday. I, the best I can come up with is
13:31
this is kind of like you're at the poker table, you're running hot, like, you got the best of it time in and time out, I'm gonna keep playing while the big events are rolling on. Yeah.
13:40
And I mean, this is a big money event. You're talking about a few million dollars on the line. Um, so I, I, as of right now, looks like he's gonna go.
13:47
I, I mean, i- if you were ev- if you were worried, though, about him, you know, withdrawing somewhere in the middle of the event last week, it's more likely to obviously to happen this week.
13:57
Um, and I, I think him and Sam Burns are still operating under, under that same, under the same way. If they, if they get a call, they're out of there, so. Packed field. Yeah, it is a packed field.
14:07
Scottie Scheffler, yeah, four to one. Xander, 11 to one. Rory, 12 to one. I think we were talking about this a bit yesterday on the pod, too. Uh, they finally made the jump with Xander over Rory, and it's the right call.
14:17
Yes. I, it's, um, he's been the second-best player on the PGA Tour this year. By the way, that Rory to LIV stuff is nonsense, or is it real? Yeah, we dove into that on the pod, too. The, uh... It, it's nonsense.
14:28
The, the part that I'll- Okay... the part I'll push back on Rory, though, Ro- Rory claiming him, he never got an offer, uh, from LIV. Oh, I'm sure he got an offer. I don't believe that for a second. Yeah.
14:38
I mean, that's his fault. Like, are you kidding me? Like- Yeah... like, what? He can't control that. And, and like, I, I, th- the guy just keeps, he keeps protecting the PGA Tour for some reason.
14:47
Like, and it's, I understand that's where he's, that's where he's playing, but- But just look at the RBC Heritage alone, like, the, the purse is so much higher than it ever was before.
14:56
That's because LIV exposed the tour. They've been, they've been holding back money from these golfers all this time, haven't they? Like, can we give LIV that much, that they at least- Yeah...
15:06
made the PGA make these changes?
15:09
It's becoming dicey, though, 'cause now you're having the PGA Tour, I mean, they got, they gotta figure out this, they gotta figure out this new L- this new tour that whatever they're gonna do together.
15:17
They keep pushing back. I, and I haven't even heard a, heard an update on that. The last was they agreed last summer that they were gonna get an agreement in place by the n- by the end of 2023- Yeah...
15:27
on whatever new tour was gonna exist, and then they pushed that deadline back to The Masters, and I haven't heard anything from then.
15:33
I'm just saying, I'm no fou- I'm no fan of the Saudis, and I'm braced for what's gonna happen- Yeah... in tennis, too, but I'm just saying, we have to give LIV that much, that they did force- So-... the PGA's hand.
15:42
I mean, the problem, the problem is right now, though, is you're getting these outside investors now for the PGA Tour. Yeah. But, like, okay, now we're seeing decreased ratings and everything, and you're...
15:52
Like, th- these guys are just overpaid. Yeah. They're overpaid for what they're actually playing for. Um, okay, let me just start by saying this.
15:58
My Augusta factoid that I learned, and I'm curious if this is the same one that blew your mind, was about the Augusta rule. Do you know about the Augusta tax rule? No.
16:06
Augusta rule has existed since the 1970s, that there's a provision in the tax code that allows homeowners to rent their homes for two weeks tax-free in Augusta. I couldn't believe that. That's amazing.
16:18
It's in the tax code. Says Augusta- This is what I was asking Crack about, though. I thought that's where, I thought that's what everybody did. They went down there and rented houses. The main...
16:26
I, but I know didn't have to pay taxes on it. Yeah, that's pretty wild. Uh- No, that is not what I learned from Matt Brown yesterday. Okay. That blew my mind. If only we had Matt Brown available to us, and we do.
16:34
Co-host of The Handle, and of course, Long Shots, the greatest podcast there ever was, it's Matt Brown, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Mateo? How are you guys?
16:44
How was your, how was your day at The Masters? Uh, honestly, fairly tainted.
16:49
Um, you know, I, it, it was great seeing the course and being a part of everything and all of that, but, uh, you know, the weather really did put a damper on things.
16:58
I mean, not just from a, a spectator standpoint because, i, I mean, it was horrible. There were times I was...
17:03
I don't know how bad it looked on TV, but it, it was, it was either as bad as it looked or it was worse th- than it looked because, I mean, there were times I just had to, like, duck my head and, and put my head in my lap because there was so much stuff- Oh, wow...
17:15
that was flying around and- Wow... a- and all that. Yeah. And so, you know, just from a golf standpoint, for me, it was, it was kind of, it was kind of a bummer, right? Because I got robbed of anybody trying anything.
17:28
Like, no one was doing, no one was doing anything. No, everyone was just aiming for center of greens, praying for pars out there. And i- it was, you know, it was uneventful.
17:37
You know, you, you watch it on television, and you hear the roars, and you hear all of that, and, like, it's all the atmosphere. Nobody was making birdies, so there were no roars.
17:45
[laughs] Like, there was nothing going on. [laughs] Like, you know, like, like, there was, there were no roars.
17:49
It was just, like, a deal where, you know, I'm glad I went, I'm glad I was there, but man, it was the hardest, uh, w- it was the hardest the wind had blown in Augusta for The Masters ever in the history of the tournament in any day.
18:00
And everyone that lived there let us know that. They were like, "Man, this w- this is like, this is one of the worst [laughs] rounds of The Masters I've ever watched." And we were like, "Oh, great. Glad I got to- Yeah...
18:09
glad I got to experience that." By the way, they were like, "And we also rented our house tax-free. You should know that as well." [laughs] What is your, what is your...
18:14
We only have a f- you know, several minutes here, so I want to get to all. Yeah. What was your Masters factoid that everybody should know? That blew my mind yesterday. That blew Kelly's mind Yes.
18:23
There is only beer and white wine served at the Masters. So- Only beer and white wine. You can't get a cocktail at the Masters. See, I don't, I don't, I don't drink. Yes, only beer and white wine.
18:36
This, this means nothing to me. And, and I, I... Yes. Yeah. I was gonna say- This means nothing to me... I know this means nothing to you. Yeah, that's right.
18:41
[laughs] But it's like, you get out there and you're just expecting like, «Hey, this is gonna be a thing», right? Like, this is going to be the... Like, this, I'm gonna go and have like, the time of my life.
18:49
And then you get out there and you're like, «Oh, drinking beer for 12 hours sounds repulsive.» [laughs] And so, like, that's not gonna happen.
18:56
And then, so I went the white wine route, and I can tell you that over the course of a Friday in the month of April, I drank more white wine than I had in my entire life combined- [laughs]... maybe by two.
19:10
[laughs] And it was, it, it was not great. It was just, it was not great. All right. That is it. There's a, it... I, I asked them on the sly, Gil. I was like, "Hey, where's the, like, bootleg booze?"
19:20
Like, "Someone's gotta be, like, serving- Right... like, bootleg, you know, liquor around here or something." And sh- and the lady was like, "Unless you know a member, you are not getting any booze."
19:28
[laughs] And so it's basically like- You have to know a member... it's basically like, yeah. Unless you know a member, Gil. You gotta know a member. Unless you know somebody, Matt Brown- Yeah.
19:34
Yeah, then you can get a whiskey... you ain't getting nothing. [laughs] Um, all right, RBC Heritage real quick before we get to your NFL draft. What did you bet this week in golf?
19:41
Yeah, I mean, th- this, this is the caveat, right? Scottie's in the field, so, you know, bet at your own risk, essentially. But I took a stab on Xander. I took a stab on Si Woo Kim.
19:52
I took a stab on Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia, and then Nick Taylor. Uh, all these guys are just guys that rated out very, very well i- in my model this week.
20:01
That being said, every single version of every model, doesn't matter what the timeframe, doesn't matter what it is, I mean, it's all Scottie Scheffler, number one, no matter what.
20:09
So kind of took a alternate betting, uh, route this week, Gil. I, I'm, I'm pulling back on the outrights, investing more in these, like, top five, top 10- There you go...
20:19
markets and stuff because, until I see Scottie slowing down, I don't know if it's really worth it to bet these guys from an outright perspective.
20:28
So, hey, look, we're still getting decent prices on these top five and top 10 markets, and so I'll go ahead and, and dabble in those a little bit more heavily, and, and yank back on the, on the monetary outlay, anyway, that I'm putting into these outrights.
20:41
What have you bet NFL draft, and what do you think you know for sure, Matt, in this draft?
20:46
Uh, I, the, the thing I think I know for sure is that Joe Alt is gonna be the first offensive lineman off the board, and he's probably going under seven and a half. I bet that.
20:58
I, I feel fairly strongly, so let me just say I'm not 100%, but I feel fairly strongly the under six and a half wide receivers is a good bet. I bet the under six and a half wide receivers.
21:11
I think, Gil, when it's all said and done, these teams are gonna sit there, and towards the end of the first round where we keep seeing some of these w- wide receivers sneak into some of the mocks out there, I think they're gonna look at how deep a wide receiver class this is.
21:24
And outside of Harrison and Nabers and Odunze, and then maybe if you want to put Brian Thomas in that grouping, there's not a whole lot of separation in all the rest of these guys.
21:33
And so it's kind of like, do we, do we waste...
21:35
I'm not gonna say waste, but do we use a first-round pick on a guy that we could probably easily get in the second round or get a clone of him in the second round anyway, a guy that we basically have on the board the same?
21:45
So I actually think I'm kind of sitting on five wide receivers, and maybe a sixth sneaks in. I just don't see seven, and so I really do like the under six and a half wide receivers. Oppo- Bidlin. Boom. Let's go.
21:58
Oppo, head-to-head on that wide receivers prop. Um- I'll tell you this. The only other thing I did do is I bet the over on five and a half o- of J.J.
22:06
McCarthy, mainly because we're, we're, everyone has just, like, bought into this assumption that there's gonna 100% be a trade. And it's like, the trade has not happened yet.
22:14
And so I, I mean, now that we've gotten all the way up to, like, plus 175 on the over five and a half, I, I'm just gonna take the chance that, hey, maybe a trade doesn't happen. Yeah.
22:23
And I went under four and a half on total quarterbacks, Matt, so kind of sort of in that same vein. Yeah. Um, appreciate it, man. Thank you for stopping in. Have a good one, guys.
22:32
Matt Brown, co-host of The Handle with Mike Somich, weekends at 12:00 noon Eastern right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. Nobody better than Matt Brown. Will Hill joins us next.
22:43
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22:50
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22:59
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23:11
Don't strike out on potential winnings. Visit vsin.com/splits. Starts make, uh, start making, rather, smarter bets today. It's Gil Alexander live from, uh, Bar Canada. The D. Kelly, Bidlin, and the Hizzy.
23:22
Um, I would read tweets, but they're all Seger songs, so I was just overrun with Bob Seger song selections. [laughs] So I'm almost sorry I brought it up.
23:30
But thank you for your Bob Seger, uh, your favorite Bob Seger jams. Does Bob Seger have jams? Do, do, does he call it that? I wonder. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know either. I don't know about that.
23:38
Don't feel like jams. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, after appearing on every other VSiN show but ours, it's the great Will Hill, host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, on the table at The D. What's happening? Yeah.
23:50
What's going on? All, by all, you mean two? Listen, you were on, uh, you were on the Greg Peterson Experience. You were on Gone Racing. You were on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. [laughs] You were on everything.
24:02
Which shows were you on? Hardwood Handicappers. You were on, you were on, uh, Sharp Money. Yeah, Sharp Money, uh, Al Bernstein, and then Lombardi Line yesterday. And Lombardi Line. [laughs] Yes. You were on everything.
24:10
Well, thank you for, uh, gracing us with your presence. Al's a very nice guy, by the way, too. Oh, Al is the sweetest- Al's the best. Best... Al is the sweetest man on earth. He is. He really is. We text.
24:18
We talk sometimes. Yeah. He's beautiful. I thought when he texted me out of the blue, he was gonna give me his lounge show, and I got super excited about it, and then it, it turned out he's still doing his lounge show.
24:26
Um, what's happening, man? So you're all, you and the family are at Caesars. Yes. Are you here collecting money? What's this, just a tour? What's going on? Just wanted to come visit. Okay.
24:35
And usually, I mean, before kids, I was here pretty much every year, sometimes twice a year. With kids, it's not as easy, so- Uh-huh... I was here maybe a year a- almost two years ago now.
24:43
So I like to still come, uh, every, I don't know, year or two, and- I still love it. It's the best. There's nothing like Vegas. I will say it does lose a little bit. Like, I can bet now in Connecticut. Yes.
24:53
And there is a little bit of- Yeah... I remember the feeling of you get off the plane. You're, wow, I can, I can go up and bet anything. This is so cra- It's not... There, there's a little bit of that's lost.
25:03
Remember, remember that feeling when you were- Yes... you were s- you were so excited to get off the plane. Yes. You're like, "Move everybody, I wanna bet." I can have the ticket in my hand, all that. Yes.
25:10
I collect my money when I win, like, all that. It, that diminishes a little bit when it's legal, but that's, uh, it, it's a lot of fun. And I watched the Lakers, Pelicans at the sports book.
25:18
I forgot how much fun it is to watch just a game at a sports book, a big game where you hear the- Oh, yeah... the cheers of the crowd and stuff. And, uh, yeah, it's a lot of fun.
25:24
By the way, Pelicans, when you're down four, all these announcers, "Hey, we don't need a three. We don't need..." You need a three. I mean, you can't just trade twos- [laughs]... for foul shots.
25:31
They never gave themselves a chance to tie. They just kept layup, foul, layup, foul. They w- They never got to three. They, they never got the lead because of that. Yeah.
25:38
And how about, did you catch the Reggie Miller thing? Yeah, I was just gonna bring it up. Yeah. Reggie Miller, uh, they were up two, so AD hits two, and then Austin Reaves hits two free throws, and then the final foul.
25:47
Uh, you know, if AD, AD hits the first, the Lakers go up three. This is with few seconds left in the game now. I...
25:53
And then, uh, before, Reggie Miller was talking about, like, he should think about missing the second one. And I'm like, "But they'd be up four. Like, what are you talking about?" That was, like, a very odd exchange.
26:03
[laughs] And Harlan seemed to agree with him that it. It was like, "Okay, what's happening here?" I thought may- I didn't hear it clearly.
26:09
I thought maybe he meant if you miss the first one, miss the second one, 'cause they don't have time to catch it without timeouts and- He did. Yeah. But you still go up four. But it, but I think they were up two.
26:18
No, so you make the... He, the way that I took it- Okay. I, I was in the kitchen when he said it, and I was like, "What did I just hear?" Yeah.
26:24
But all the tweets afterward were making it sound like Reggie meant to say something different than he actually said. 'Cause they were... No, they were up two. Right.
26:31
And Reggie Miller was sort of saying that we talk about this on the team planes all the time back in the day. You make the first and then, you know, the ball caroms off the third one. Yeah, that's true.
26:39
Well, that's great, but if you go up four, you go up four. [laughs] Yeah. Exactly. Right?
26:41
I thought he meant if you miss the first, maybe just might as well miss the second so you don't give themselves- Well, if he did, he should've explained better. Right. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
26:48
Um, by the way, you are also on this Guardians bet. You and I did this independently. Yeah. Um, it's funny that, that we both landed, 'cause you got it from somebody else, too, right? You got it from somebody else.
26:59
I don't remember if I was- Yeah...
27:00
going through the schedule, and we texted about it, like, within minutes of each other, like, "Wow, I just bet that, too," and I, I don't know, but it's- I, I, like, spent a day, like, just going into all the baseball props the day before the baseball season.
27:09
I landed on this bet, and I text Will. I'm like, "Oh, this," uh, Will and Fleeka. I'm like, "I'm betting this Guardian 65 to one," and Will's like, "Oh, yeah, I bet that," but not at the same price.
27:17
He got it a little less. But as you're watching these games yesterday, and you're watching the Pelicans on one screen and the Guardians on the other, which actually had most of your attention? The Guardians.
27:26
And I kind of- For sure... I mean, I'd kind of given up. I mean, Bears are the worst. Bear will give up on anything as soon as there's a man on first- Oh, by the way... with one out. This is the worst.
27:33
By the way, if you ever ch- again, like Chris Fallica. Fallica jumped on our bet with us. Add him to the list. If you ever have a bet with Fallica, he's the worst human being alive to have the same side as.
27:45
[laughs] Exactly what you were saying. We get the bases loaded one out, here comes a double play, here comes a strikeout. It's like he's, uh... You ever see Major League II or, or Randy Quaid- Yeah...
27:53
that character when he's just sitting, all the blow in the night? That, that's the Bears. [laughs] It's the worst. But, uh- The Bear...
27:58
I'd kind of given up, too, after Saturday, the way they lost the doubleheader to the Yankees, then they were down four-nothing early to the Yankees on Sunday. And all right, you know what?
28:04
Oh, it w- It was a good run, but here they are. Yeah. Here they are. Don't control the, again, 12 and five. Uh, if it were to have ended right now, we would've won this.
28:13
Uh, and don't control our own destiny because that one game that was forfeited because of rain in Minnesota.
28:17
So the Yankees and Royals, because the Yankees have one more game to play and the Royals have two more games to play, technically are the teams that control the destiny.
28:24
But the Guardians are in as good a spot as we could possibly have them in. And- And this is starting to feel real. And Gil, you said, it's not, it's not dead heat. It, it's not a dead heat- It is-...
28:34
if it ends with most wins? The, the tiebreaker is fewest losses. Fewest losses. Right. Okay. So you're... Okay. Yeah. Tiebreaker is fewest losses.
28:43
So again, this is, I, I, I'll say it again, like tennis is, or baseball's my brain, tennis is my brain on crack.
28:50
These are really well-conceived bets that I make in baseball, and I feel like this would be a masterpiece if it gets home. What would... Does it... D- Will, do you remember what the Dodgers number was on this to start?
29:00
Like, I mean, th- three to one? Had to be- Four to one? Had to be two or three to one probably. 'Cause, 'cause they had a couple more games, right? They already had played two.
29:06
They would play two extra games in the beginning, yeah. Plus, if you're gonna handicap the weather, they're playing a lot of their games in LA, San Diego. You don't have- That's right... to worry about rain outs as much.
29:13
Yeah. Which is funny, they had delays the other day, rain delays the other day, but- Then we lost Shane Bieber. Yes. So, you know, if it gets home, it gets home. I, I get the sense you're very optimistic.
29:22
You, you have a feeling this is getting home. Oh, I l- I... Listen, I was optimistic when I made the bet. I'm like, "Whatever this is, this is a horrible number." Yeah.
29:29
Um, and you saw, like we haven't thrown this on the show, but I send you guys this ev- update every night, and then I also sent what I thought they would have to do every series to get this home. Right.
29:41
So, like, they'd have to sweep the A's, then they'd have to go three and one against Boston, like every series I had. And so it's kind of almost matched the whole way so far,
29:51
but it's, you're not, you're not taking on four teams in your division. You're taking on all 30 teams in baseball. So again, someone pointed this out on Twitter, look at all those teams that are right in the rear view.
30:02
Like, if you lose two or three, you're done. Mm-hmm. Right? So it's like the Yankees and Dodgers both have 12 wins, too, although more losses.
30:09
But you got the Braves and the Orioles and the Padres and the Pirates and the Royals. They're all one game back. So this, I mean, you can't be that confident about it.
30:17
What do you g- yeah, what do you, what do you guys think the magic number is for you to get home? Great question. Nine? The, what's the magic number of total wins? Wins, yeah. Oh, I, so- You got 12 games left...
30:27
when they had the total number of games, in other words, they hadn't lost that game in Minnesota yet, or hadn't four, hadn't, hadn't lost the opportunity for that game in Minnesota, I said... What was it?
30:36
What did I send? 23 and seven, I thought. So- So now I would say 22 and seven. So 10. So- Okay. I, I think, I think if you win, I think if the Guardians were to... Obviously this is, it sounds crazy, right?
30:48
If they go to 10 and one, they're winning this If they go eight and three or nine and two- Then it gets-... it gets tight... it's gonna be dicey then. Right? Yeah.
30:56
So- I think anything less than that, yeah, you're, you're pro- It's tough... you're probably shot. It's just tough- If it's seven wins... 'cause there's so many teams to choose from.
31:01
Would you sign for eight and three right now? Yeah, I would take eight and three right now. I think I would too. Because the last four games are the tough ones. They got three at Atlanta and one at Houston.
31:11
So all, the whole handicap was they got... I mean, not the whole handicap, but a lot of the handicap was they've got this unbelievably easy schedule.
31:17
Seven against the A's, seven against the Red Sox, who I did not have rated high, three against the White Sox, but there was always those four games at the end. Three at Atlanta, one at Houston. Oh, that sucks.
31:27
So they got a, you want a mini- [laughs] You want a mini cushion. You couldn't hedge really then at all. Like, if they did have so, you know, like final day or whatever, right? 'Cause they're probably gonna be a dog.
31:36
Yeah, but... Well, Houston has not played well. Houston's just- Hou- Houston has not played well.
31:40
But in my thing, the, the Houston, Atlanta four games total, I had written down two and two as like, okay, you got to account for two losses there at the end.
31:50
So you basically got to run pure [laughs] outside of those last two series then. Well, 'cause you got to assume another team is going to get hot. Right Right?
31:58
And, and the Braves and the Orioles are that sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear one game back where you're like, "Oh, no. There's the Braves in the rear view. God help us."
32:08
So anyway, it's just such a great bet for so many reasons, 'cause it's... it forces you to think in different ways about schedule, about different teams, about weather, about your starting rotation.
32:20
Uh, just about everything. It gets you, it just completely makes you dive into a sport. I love that you, that you add up the one run games every night. Just, I feel like for, just for the self-pain. Just for the pain.
32:31
You, you just want to be like- And be like-... "Oh, great. The Yankees are six and one. Great" By the way, it should be six and two on the Yankees. Six and two.
32:36
Yeah, the run differential where the, the Guardians have the second-best, and yes, the worst of it so far on the, on the one run difference. Yeah, it's totally self-loathing. Totally.
32:44
I thought we were looking at another one last night too, because the way they blew the game- Oh... then you're heading to the ninth.
32:47
And see, I know Jansen's shaky, but I just, I don't know, it felt like it was, uh, it was headed for a painful... That was a great win last night. All right, you have NFL draft bets. You have- Kind of. Kind of. NBA. NBA.
32:57
Yeah. We'll get into all that on the other side. Dice. Um, I didn't mean to yap through the Guardians bit, but you got me super excited. I'm pumped- Super excited... for you guys now too. Hey, I have a 65 to one.
33:06
I can't blame you. If I, if I had that bet last night, was in the book too, I'd be watching more of that game. That's all... Yeah, I mean, I was watching the basketball game, but I wasn't really watching- Right. Yeah...
33:13
the basketball game, you know? Um, shout out to Circa for putting up that market, March, April. Shout out to the boys. Uh, we'll come back. Will Hill, everybody. Shoulda Bet More is the name of his podcast.
33:25
Uh, he originally called it the, uh, You Should Wager More on This, and I said, "No, go Shoulda Bet More," and he's like, "Oh, you're right. Okay." Shoulda Bet More is the name of his podcast. More with Will next....
33:39
Miss out on any of the NBA playoff action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:44
From the play-in tournament through the finals, DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered with same-game parlays, live betting, odds boosts, and so much more. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code VSIN.
33:53
New customers bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code V-S-I-N. Only on DraftKings, the crown is yours. Jimmy Lopez says, "So glad to see Kelly as a man of the people with his large Dunkin hot coffee."
34:07
There you go, man of the people. Yeah, I got coffee problems down here. We've been down here for six months, seven months. I still haven't figured out my coffee routine.
34:13
Chance Copperpot, "Gil, I'm a little worried about our bets. You have the Guardians and I have the Pirates for most wins in March, April, but there are 13 teams with 10 wins or more." It's not quite 13, but it's a lot.
34:22
Oh, no, with 10, yes, he's right. With 10 it says 13 or more. Uh, we're at 12. Ah, let's see. Ben McGovern, "What do you think about the Giants taking a quarterback with their first pick at plus 150?"
34:33
They can't get in, go into the season with that quarterback room. Daybell will get fired. [laughs] I love the quarterback room. [laughs] Todd loves that. Uh, Mike Rouse, "Holy gun show from Will Hill.
34:44
When do we get the Will Hill versus-" Will Hill, check it out... Matt Brown weightlifting competition? That was the first thing I said to Will. I go, "Hey, maybe you should work out a little more.
34:51
What's your story, man?" Oh, man. I lift. I'm in the cardio, could use a little work.
34:55
I probably, uh, could probably go on one of those Dustin and, uh, JVT weight loss things, but it's, I, I still try to get the weights in. Yeah. The, uh...
35:03
I kind of want to set up an old strongman competition between Matt Brown and Will Hill now. Will is, Will is- I think Matt's getting smoked. Well, Matt's more of a, you know- Lean, mean, fighting machine...
35:14
lean, mean guy. Right. [laughs] All right. Will seems very, uh, very uncomfortable with this conversation. No, I'm, uh, um, they have the, uh, the Patriots-Giants Super Bowl from 2011 here, and it's funny.
35:24
You remember these games and who won and stuff- Yeah... but you, you forget the little details of it. Like, man, the Patriots blew this game. It was 17-9 in the third quarter. They had the ball.
35:31
They threw a bad interception. Yeah. Is th- is this where, uh, Eli makes that unbelievable pass to, uh- Yes, Manningham... Manningham in the corner coming up on the next play, I think, right? Yeah, might.
35:40
It's gotta be- Yeah... right around there. Yeah. As you say, yeah, maybe we're a play or two away, but yeah, that's, uh- I think we're next play. Yeah. Yeah. Or they get a... Well, maybe it's the wr- wrong drive.
35:46
Uh, okay. I'm sure it's great for people to listen to us- [laughs] Right, yeah... watch a game. You're, you're play-by-play on it guys. [laughs] All right. What's your, uh...
35:52
Yeah, guys, I don't know if you know this, but I don't know who's, who wins this. It's gonna be incredible. Uh, okay. Basketball, do you have any play-in plays tonight in the Eastern Conference?
36:01
It's hard to lay the points with Philly. I, I, I would take the points with Philly. I do think, a- and Kelly, I'm curious what you think. I think Miami probably has to go zone tonight.
36:08
When you're playing Herro and Duncan Robinson and Love, I don't know that they have the athleticism to stay in front of Philly. But f- like how many minutes is Embiid gonna play tonight? Is he gonna play 40?
36:16
Is he gonna play 30? What kind of shape is he in? I, I, I would take the points with Miami. I laid it with the Sixers. Yeah. I would be betting it bigger if I was more confident in...
36:27
Uh, the Embiid thing's, uh, seemingly going under the radar a little bit. Like, like he did leave that game on Friday, and then didn't, you know, he, he, uh, didn't play on Sunday. Um, the I think he's gonna be fine.
36:38
I kind of think it- you know, what... I'm, I'm on the Dal- I'm on the Mavs pretty big series and e- and everything there.
36:44
I'm a little concerned that the Clippers have just been playing possum with the injury too with Kawhi, and it's, "Hey, we don't wanna get in trouble for, you know, resting him too many games down the stretch.
36:56
Let's just say he's a- you know, he, he's questionable out till the playoffs start." And I'm a little worried he comes back and it's like, "Oh, there's Kawhi, and he's completely fine." But I don't really know.
37:05
I mean, a lot of these are a li- up in the air. Miami, though, it's gonna be tou- they're gonna have to mix up looks for sure. I think they're gonna have to go heavy zone on him.
37:12
Uh, Bam, uh, Bam will have to have a big game, but he can't do it all by himself. He can't. A- and they just don't have the size to individually match up with him. So it's gonna be...
37:20
You're gonna have to run doubles at him. You're gonna have... They're definitely gonna mix in some zone, though. They've been doing that this year. I would, I would expect to see that tonight. Anything on the other game?
37:28
Boy, it feels like the, uh, the Bulls and the Hawks have played in the play-in for, like, seven straight years. Oh- I know they've never played each other in the play-in. This...
37:35
I- When you think of, like, Eastern Conference play-in, Eastern Conference mediocrity, you just think of the Bulls and the Hawks. It's such a depressing game. It is. Uh, I- Just take the whole NBA. Oh my goodness.
37:42
Like, if you just see NBA as a whole, like, the, the Bulls and the Hawks are the, are the absolute quintessential play-in teams. Like, it was, it- It's NBA- Feels like they've done it for eight years. Yeah.
37:54
It's NBA purgatory. Yes. Yes. 100%. I would... I think the Hawks have too much shooting for that. Like, the Bulls don't have any shooting. No. They're gonna have DeMar DeRozan mid-ranges, and what else?
38:03
Vučević and Alex Caruso. It's just... And again, it's such a depressing game. I, I would look towards an under. I know Fez has been good giving out these unders on these play-in games. You see more intensity on defense.
38:11
The pace has slowed down. Even both games last night started out fast and then just, uh, completely slowed down, and both stayed under pretty comfortably. Um, I, I just think the Hawks with Bogdanović, Murray, and, uh,
38:23
a- and Trae Young- Mm-hmm... that's more than what the Bulls have. So I would take the points. I guess I'd take the points in both games. I like the under in both games.
38:29
Nothing crazy, no huge bets, but, uh, I think my favorite bet would be the unders in both games. Do you think the Nuggets price with the Lakers series, the 72 in the West is correct, minus 310 on the Nuggets?
38:40
Seems a little light, but it is LeBron and Davis. Uh, you know, th- there's the concern somewhat with Murray's knee. It's about right. I mean, I, I know people say, "Hey, that's a, that's a terrible number."
38:50
What, what do people think it should be, minus 400, 500? Maybe. It... Again, it's minus 300. It's- Yeah... it's, it's not like you're getting a huge bargain, but I do think it's probably a little cheap.
38:58
Cut to the shot of everybody after game two being like, "Oh my God, they crushed him." I mean, I still think it's Denver. Like, I think it's still Denver, but I think they're, the, uh...
39:07
I- if there is a reduction in the price, Will, like, I, I think it makes sense. There's also just kind of, like, the timing of the playoffs, right?
39:13
Like, LeBron, you get a health- you know, a healthier and more refreshed LeBron James and AD in series one than you would in the Western Conference Finals after battling through a long playoff stretch.
39:25
I think there's that. I think where this Lakers team is at right now is a much better spot e- even where they, when they were a year ago again, going up against this Nuggets team. So I, I think it's still Nuggets.
39:37
Uh, Nuggets will be fine w- in this series. But, uh, yeah, I think that's a little bit more dicey than we would've talked about this Lakers team, uh, last year going into the series.
39:45
Lakers don't have a great matchup for Murray, too. They're playing these- No, they don't. At all... offensive lineups with Rui and D'Angelo Russell. They don't really have a good option to, to guard Murray.
39:52
Um, you know, people that are, uh, wanna poke holes in Denver say, hey, they're a player short. They never replaced Bruce Brown, and Bruce Brown was great for them in the playoffs last year and against the Lakers.
39:59
So I don't know. It's about right. I don't think it's a, uh, you know, a series I'll have a bet on. I do think there's some good bets on these correct series scores. Mm. Yeah.
40:05
Like, some of these teams that are the lower seeds you can bet on to like... Like, I like the Suns to win that series against the Timberwolves. You can get them, uh, to win in six plus 500.
40:13
Like, some of these teams like the Suns, the Magic, the Pacers, when you're the lower seed, you're probably not gonna sweep. You're probably not gonna win in five. It's hard to win game seven on the road.
40:21
Like, that six is the sweet spot where, hey, you get the split early, and you can just hold serve in terms of home court, and then you have a chance to close out game six.
40:28
Um, instead of just taking them, you know, whatever, minus 120, 5-1 to, to win in six at least if you wanna, you know- Did you bet those? Yeah. Yeah. Which series did you do that for?
40:36
Pacers in six, Suns in six, and, uh, what was the third one? Magic in six. But all, all around 5-1. Wow. All right. In, in lieu of series prices, you went that way? No, I did a, I did a little on the series price, too.
40:48
I'd say three quarters of my bet on the series price than just the quarter on, uh, on winning in six. 'Cause again, like, what are you gonna... You're not gonna sweep. You're not gonna win in five.
40:54
It's hard to win in seven. If you're, if you're gonna win the series- It's a good call... you're probably gonna win in six. Yeah. I think I'm doing that with...
40:59
I, I'm gonna add some Mavericks alts as well, and I'm probably gonna do something like that. I think Mavericks in six is probably what I'm gonna bet there. Do you have any futures, uh, pending in the NBA?
41:10
I grabbed the Celtics like a week ago when it was minus 150 or so. I mean, I, I- To win the East? To win the East. Yeah. To win the East. I just, I don't know.
41:16
You know, uh- Oh, my, uh, my hypothetical prop of five and a half losses for the Celtics in the Eastern Conference playoffs. You're way under on that. Under. Under.
41:23
I know the first series will be tougher than usual, especially if you get the Heat. [laughs] But I mean- Under, and I spit on your prices basically. Yes. Yes. Pretty much. Yeah.
41:29
I mean, the second round you're gonna get the Magic or the Cavs in the second round. That is such a soft draw. Yeah. Yeah.
41:34
Unless you think Embiid can be healthy and put it together for three rounds and he can give them a hard time. I mean, you talking about the Knick- [laughs]...
41:40
the Knicks is a two seed, the Bucks with a, a banged up Giannis, maybe the Pacers. I mean, this is a- as weak a conference as I can really remember. Round one, the Celtics and the Heat, everybody.
41:49
We were, we were talking about it during, during a break, but this is the... I- Like, you're...
41:52
No matter if the Sixers get in, no matter if they're the seven or the eight seed, two of the three best teams in the Eastern Conference playing in the first round. Yeah.
41:59
Whether it's the Knicks or, or the Celtics that they play, you're getting two of the three, the three best teams in my opinion left in the Eastern Conference playing each other in the first round.
42:07
What does the Sixers-Knicks series price look like? Oh, man. Uh, Sixers, well, Sixers slight favorite assuming Embiid looks fine, right? I think something like that. Sixers- Minus 130 or something? Yeah.
42:20
Sixers minus 141- Minus 140 popped in my head randomly. Oh. Yeah. 'Cause you gotta make them a favorite, but then you can't be too offensive about it. You can't. No. Right. The Sixers have been great.
42:30
I think that'll be a great series actually. I, I don't know that I'll be heavily betting the Sixers in that series. Mitchell Robinson back. Like, I... The Knicks- It's a great home court, too.
42:39
The Garden would be a great home court. That's hard to win in that building. But yeah, I, I... Boy, if I was the Knicks, I would've thought twice about getting the two seat. I think I would've rather been the three.
42:47
I really do. Any baseball today from you? I played the Yankees. Gausman for the Blue Jays has been awful. His velocity's way down. He's throwing upper 80s, lower 90s. He's down a good three or four miles an hour.
42:55
So Yankees, I don't know. Could you play the team total over? Could you play the game over? I know it went from eight to eight and a half, but, uh, you know, just, just playing the Yankees I think is a good bet.
43:02
And I'm gonna br- take the Braves too. The Astros have looked awful. I mean, I guess- What's going on there? Yeah.
43:07
I mean, look, you're in the World Series and the ALCS for seven straight years, I guess you just can't do it every year. No. And the pitching's a mess.
43:12
The Braves are still really good on offense, Fried going against I think J.P. France. So Braves minus 140 or so, and then the Yankees ri- right around a pick of minus 110 either way, so.
43:20
And no, and no NFL draft from you? Nothing. It's hard. First of all, I can't bet in Connecticut. Oh, that's why. It's just, there's not that much. I got burned last year. Remember this time last year? Oh.
43:28
The sec- the second overall pick, oh, it was gonna be J... It could be Jalen Carter. It could be Tyree Wilson. It could be Anderson. Oh, Will Levis was minus mo- money going into the final week.
43:36
It was none of those guys. So that, that's one where you hate losing money on the draft just because you don't...
43:40
You just felt like you got burned on bad information, and you just feel dumb when you lose money on the draft. It, is that- So I tread it lightly... that's such a great point.
43:46
Like, we won year after year after year after year after year. Did the euphoria of all those years match the sorrow of last year alone? It hurt. It hurt. It hurt for sure. And you're right, there is a stupidity factor.
43:58
Yes. You feel dumb. We got, uh, lost on this nonsense? Nope. Kind of thing. Um, any place that I can cash those C.J. Stroud number one pick, uh, props, though? Yeah. I'm still willing to go. Thank you, Will.
44:09
Appreciate it. This was fun. Appreciate it. Will, Will Hill, everybody, @NotTheWillHill. Should have bet more. Gojoin Golica next. Enjoy. From Vista, the Sports Betting Network.
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