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Apr 17, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 17, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 17, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:32
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It's Kelly Bidlin, it's my little buddy, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, who's here for, uh, one more day this week and then is headed to a family vacation in Turks and Caicos. That's right. Let's go.
0:31
Can't wait. 48 hours sitting on a beach with an umbrella drink. Oh, man. Don't bother me. I don't know which Turks or Caicos I'm gonna be on. [laughs] One of those islands. [laughs] I'm, I'm jelly, as the kids say.
0:43
Uh, on the show today, uh, we will go to, uh, most wins by the end of April because that market is still available in Major League Baseball. Yeah, I kind of just caught that last week.
0:53
Like, I think DraftKings has been posting it almost every day, which is pretty cool. DraftKings, which last year only put up March, April, and then never did again. Yeah. Right?
1:03
Will Hill, Caesars, Will Hill/Caesars and, uh, Circa kept them month by month, but DraftKings just, was one and done last year. It was one and done. Wasn't just, it wasn't May also?
1:13
I thought there was one book that- I don't, I don't think so. Okay. I thought there was one book that we were really confused by that did- No... the first like two and then stopped. No.
1:20
DraftKings did the first and then they bounced, and then the other two did them all year, which is where we were betting them.
1:24
But this is interesting because they're keeping it up now, and you can still re-bet, so we will, uh, take a look at that.
1:29
Zach Cohen, part of the Zach and Crack comedy duo, VSiN senior editor, his NBA, his tennis today on the show as we have play-in fever continuing because now the, uh, the losers of the seven, eight and the winners of the nine, 10 play each other for the eight seed on Friday, which we'll get into momentarily.
1:47
Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, NFL draft. Let us get serious about this. "Let's get serious," Jermaine Jackson once said about the NFL draft. And Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, has had a great history betting the draft.
2:01
Where does he stand on all of this six days before the actual first round? What does he know for sure? What doesn't he know for sure?
2:10
And then Bill Krackomberger, who's usually the whole second, uh, hour of the show, unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger. He is, uh, live from Hilton Head. The RBC Heritage is there.
2:20
It's like he was at, he was at Augusta last week. He's at Hilton Head this week. He's just following the tour. I, I lo- That's all he's doing... I love PGA Tour Crack.
2:27
It's, uh, it's always great when- [laughs] It's your favorite... yeah, the Masters, 'cause this, this has become like a annual thing, right? These two events. Yeah, I believe so. Yeah. Yeah. My- Good on him.
2:35
Two of the best golf, uh, [laughs] events you can go to in a year. My favorite version of Crack is extra salty Crack. [laughs] Yeah. Oh, like- It's funny. Well, we get that pretty often, so. [laughs] Yeah.
2:44
Extra salty Bill Krackomberger, let me just, uh, let me be clear. Uh, and then are we sure a little later on, estamos seguros, a little later on in the show Kelly will pepper me with questions.
2:54
Um, and a, and a special, here momentarily, momentarily, a special Kelly Bidlin story from this past week. Yeah. Gambling, I call it gambling shenanigans in Vegas. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
3:07
Let's get to that moment- momentarily though. I just, this is for subscribers.
3:10
Let me just go through this for a second because the rollercoaster of emotions with betting, and just so this is for new bettors and newish bettors, vsin.com/picks.
3:19
Uh, VSiN subscribers get access to every host, every guest's picks in every sport. And as you all know, I, I bet tennis, and just for new bettors, your success in sports betting long-term is largely, this is a Dr.
3:34
Bob quote, is largely your ability to overcome negative variance and just deal with the ups and downs of this. So yesterday I had five picks. Today I had five picks.
3:42
Yesterday in tennis, this is, and subscribers got all these, yesterday I go one in four in my five picks, and you say to yourself, "One in four? That's terrible." Well, the one was a plus 245 dog that hit.
3:52
That was our, our girl, Tianzhuo Sarah, Raku Tamango, Riona. Nailed it. Yeah. Um, so you, you end up losing a unit and a half roughly on that, even though you go one in four because she was a plus 245 dog.
4:04
Anyway, I pointed out yesterday on the show the real horror of that was the plu- the plus 218 dog, Sarah Erani, served for the match, gak'd it, then was up five-two in the third set tiebreaker, gak that.
4:17
And Bernarda Pera, who was a plus 335 dog, she was serving for the straight set win, gak that and lost.
4:26
So what could have been is more the story than what was, except, you know, I don't know this, if you know this about books, they don't really care about that stuff. Yeah. Yes, they do not.
4:36
You, you just have to eat it emotionally and mentally and just move on and, I don't know, maybe do a national show while it's happening.
4:43
Today, this morning, and you almost could predict this based on those outcomes, um, a great morning, three in one, hit a plus 256 dog on a Katarina Alexandrova over Mirra Andreeva.
4:57
Hit a plus 202 dog on Suzanne Lamens this morning. Hit a plus 106 short dog on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. But guess what I'm gonna remember this for? The one, because you know the, what the one was, Kelly?
5:12
Louise Boisson. Not poisson, not fish, but Boisson. She was up six-one-five-one. Oh my gosh. And lost, preventing us from the four and O. How does that happen?
5:23
And in real life, in real life value, if I let you know what that potentially could cost me, I'd be embarrassed.
5:30
But this is, this, you have to be able to deal with this, and I am so, I have so much scar tissue that you just deal with it. Anyway. God, that's bru- that is brutal, man. There's, there's one more play left today.
5:44
All this to say there's one more play left today, and it's about to start, I don't know, 20 minutes, 30 minutes. You know how tennis goes. Uh, I'm on the, uh, Hungarian Fabian Marozsan.
5:53
He's the only, uh, favorite of the day. He's a short favorite. As the Hungarians pronounce it, Fabian Marozsan. Um, he is, he is, uh, I don't know, I wanna watch to see exactly when the time is.
6:05
Yeah, it's about 20 minutes, uh, 30 minutes from now. And, um, he's taking on Ugo Humbert. It's only a few pennies worse than that price right now, so you could still play it.
6:15
Fabian Marozsan, the only remaining tennis play of the day. Again, proceed with caution because these can take your heart, your soul out of your body and crush them.
6:26
Uh, as far as the play-ins in the, uh, in, uh, the National Basketball Association, so we had the seven-eights the other night. Both the Magic and the Warriors got by.
6:35
Magic covered, Warriors did not, but they end up as the seven seeds in the, in the respective conferences, East and West. Uh, and then last night was the, uh, the nine-10s, the loser of which would be eliminated, right?
6:48
The, uh, winner of which would go on to take on the respective losers of the seven-eights. So what we ended up happening last night is a, uh, a Mavericks and Heat duo.
6:59
So those are both the, uh, both the 10 seeds, uh, if I'm not mistaken, win last night. Mm-hmm. And so the Mavs now take on, the, the Mavs and Heat will advance to Friday. This is tomorrow night.
7:12
Uh, and we have very short spreads on both of these. Uh, in the Eastern Conference, the Heat are at the Hawks. Remember the Hawks when we last saw, Trae Young was throwing a tantrum, getting two techs.
7:22
Hawks are one-point favorites against the Heat, exactly what the line was in the Heat game against the Bulls. This time, though, in Atlanta for the eight seed. And in the West, Dallas at Memphis.
7:31
Memphis is a six-and-a-half point favorite. Any thoughts on either of those two? Oh, man, I really wanna play, I really wanna play the Heat.
7:37
I, I think that's the only, uh, the only thing that jumped out to me last night after that game was waiting to see what that number was gonna be, Miami at Atlanta.
7:45
Problem is, we're just, and we've talked about this a lot this week, it feels like, just the, the adjusting to, into playoff mode and kinda where you have numbers at regular season-wise, uh, rolling into the playoffs.
7:56
Like, I thought I was gonna be catching two and a half, something like that in Atlanta, and no, it's, it's one, pick 'em, with lean, it's a heavy lean to Miami, but no bet for me, uh, as of yet.
8:06
And then, man, Mavericks Grizzlies,
8:09
e- everybody, I think everybody's all ready to think that the Mavericks are, are quitting and, and, you know, the season's over and start thinking to the summer, but man, you're going up against a Grizzlies team.
8:19
Ja Morant dealing with a l- you know, a little bit of an injury, didn't look great the other night, uh, you know, for, for portions of that game. I don't know, man. I could be a little tighter.
8:27
I'm not running to lay six and a half w- w- with Memphis. I think I like both the dogs. Yeah. Yeah. The Heat just because I'm not going up against Spoelstra and those guys. I said it before the, the nine-10- Oh, yeah...
8:37
the nine-10 game. I didn't bet the nine-10 game, though, full disclosure, but this one I might.
8:42
And then the Mavericks Grizzlies, AD had 27 last night, Klay had 23, and Klay did it on 8 of 11 shooting from the field, five of seven from three. Exactly why they got him.
8:53
Y- which is, which is a huge indicator, too, of, of, okay, like, if you th- if you thought they were ready for this se- to, to head into the off-season, Klay Thompson and AD playing like that?
9:03
Like, no, man, they, like, they clearly wanna keep playing. Yeah. I, Kla- Klay coming off of, remember, the terrible play and performance last year for the Warriors when they got bounced.
9:12
Um- You're getting six and a half here, too. Like, I'll take that. Yeah, it, it, it's a lot. I, that's, uh, yeah, I'm with you. We'd lean both the dogs.
9:19
I thought I was gonna be getting a little bit more with Miami, but I understand it 'cause I, I think that's, the way that we set up that game with Chicago, I think it played out b- uh, exactly like we talked about.
9:28
I, I, I, uh, numbers-wise, I thought they pointed to a little value on the Chicago side, but Miami was clearly game planned perfectly from them out of the gates, and it started off, Atlanta struggled off, uh, or Chicago struggled offensively to get going, and Miami had a hot shooting start, and that was it.
9:45
Game was basically over. You could not, Chicago could not catch back up. They couldn't handle, uh, handle what Miami was throwing at them.
9:50
Is there a team from this quartet, Heat, Hawks, Mavericks, Grizzlies, that could take a collective one game off the Cavaliers or Thunder? Um- In a one-eight series.
10:01
Yes, probably the Grizzlies taking one off the Thunder would be most likely. Okay. I didn't think that was gonna be your answer, but okay. Yeah, yeah.
10:10
No, it's a good- I thought you were gonna say- It's a good question, but- I thought you were gonna say Heat Cavaliers. Yeah. All right. No, I'm gonna go with Grizzlies most likely to take one. Okay.
10:17
All right, they gotta do their, uh, stuff tomorrow night again. Uh, off night in the NBA as they just milk play-in fever.
10:23
Ha- having said all that, though, like, the, the, like, the Thunder, the Thunder tickets, this is one of the better match-ups they could get for a, for- For a first round. Yeah. Yeah. And then it gets serious after that.
10:32
Yes. Okay, um, before we go to break here and before we get Kelly's gamble, gambling shenanigans story of the week, um, and we'll- I feel like I have two of them at this point. You have two?
10:42
Well, that's two different places I, I'd like to talk about. Okay. Yeah. [laughs] All right. Well, the floor is yours, sir.
10:47
Uh, but before we go to break, all right, speaking of the RBC Heritage, where Crack is today, Bill Krackomberger, I did, after the, the Master's glory, I did bet the short shot, Scottie Scheffler, plus 450 to win this tournament.
11:00
I like it. 'Cause I was like, "What, what the heck?" I like it. Yeah, right now- Although I didn't say heck... right now, uh, Sammy Valimaki out there tearing it up through nine. He is five under par already.
11:10
Um, you've got Sam Stevens and my guy, Keegan Bradley, three under par, uh, two behind him. But, uh, yeah, I, look, I, I considered Scheffler pretty heavily this week.
11:20
Um, ended up going other directions, but, um, was considering him. First round leader bets for me, if you are interested- Of course...
11:27
in jumping in later, Berger and Tom Hoge, uh, who have not teed off yet, though Tom Hoge just finished one, but you can still get in on it live. Let's go, Berger, for the people. Let's go.
11:37
Let alone, let alone for Kelly, for the people, if you know what I mean. We'll come back. Uh, we will talk about Kelly's, uh, gambling stories and more, including that, uh, MLB March-April market on the other side.
11:48
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Want to bet smarter? I know you do. Start with smarter insights right now.
12:03
You can check out Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, NBA two seven series previews, talking dubs and the Rockets out west, baby, and Steve Mackanin's first round NBA betting trends.
12:13
Later today, you can check out Jonathan Davis' NHL picks on the cusp of the playoffs, Adam Burke's MLB best bets, and the VSiN staff best bets for the NBA playoffs.
12:23
Don't forget we got that NBA, uh, contest coming up, the Carl Sack Invitational. I'm excited for it. I'm pumped. Right now you can sign up for our summer special for only $59 for full VSiN Pro access until August 1st.
12:35
Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. We should call it the Carl Sack Invitational. Sounds good.
12:41
I s- I still don't know that I'm, I'm sure where I'm, where I'm entering picks or what [laughs] I don't know anything yet. Okay. [laughs] I feel like I'm still waiting for a lot of details.
12:49
[laughs] I'm, I'm talking about it, I'm like, "Where, where do I go?" Drew was like, "Do I, do I give you my email? What do I do?" I was texting with, uh, JBT and Zach yesterday, and I was like...
12:57
I was asking Gil questions about it on the air yesterday like I was helping promote it, but no, I was just legit asking questions. [laughs] Who was he asking questions of? Of me? No, I was yesterday- Oh, dear...
13:07
we were, we were talking about it. Yeah, yeah. I'm like, no, these are just things I don't know. I don't know either.
13:11
Uh, we will get to the bottom of it though, because I don't know if you know this, the NBA playoff starts two days, so- I mean, uh-... we gotta get going... w- we do.
13:18
Now, the other si- the other side of that coin, though, is, uh, the NBA playoffs last f- lasts for roughly six and a half months. They do. So yeah, plenty of time to do a contest like this. They, that's very true.
13:26
The interminable first round of the NBA playoffs. Why do we play a best of seven? Money is probably the answer. Okay, um, Kelly is, uh, leaving town to go on a family vacation to, uh, Turks and Caicos. Mm-hmm.
13:39
Um, so good on him. Jelly, very jealous. Um, so before he leaves town, 'cause we've been, we've been wanting to get this out all week.
13:47
So before you leave town, and before we get back to MLB March/Aprils, time for Kelly Bidlin's Gambling Shenanigans edition number I don't know what. I'm getting chased out of this town, man. That's what's happening.
13:59
The, uh... Where do you wanna start? I got two places, man. Do you- Do you wanna start with the quicker one? Okay, the quicker one. Caesars. Caesars. What, what are we doing, man? I know we talked about the NFL Draft.
14:08
I know I went crazy about this last week, but the, the whole l- taking no money on the app, basically, $30 or whatever, but you can go in there- For an NFL Draft bet... for NFL Draft, $30.
14:20
And you can drive into Caesars, pay $25 to park, go into a kiosk, put your exact same player's information into a kiosk where they're gonna know exactly who's betting it anyways, and then you can make a bigger bet.
14:33
This is just faux pas. How does this make sense? It's just, you're just stealing $25 off people to come and park. It's not just Caesars. It dri- I know. It drives me insane, though. They've been the worst.
14:41
They had one this week with a golf boost, right? They're boosting up Justin Thomas' odds.
14:47
And on the boost, which I think is responsible and something you should do, but they're promoting the boost, and at the top it says, "Maximum $100 bet." Okay, great. $100.
14:59
Nope, that is, uh, you've exceeded the stakes or whatever, you know? [laughs] Okay, $90? You know, what, what, what is this? Nope, nope, see. Keep going down, keep going down. Finally got accepted at $10, Gil.
15:10
The, it was like when I tried to bet Cornucopia for the Derby, right? And they're just saying, "No, how about, how about $100?" "No." "How about $40?" "No." "How about $30?" "No." Like, why is this up?
15:19
Like, so I'll even argue the difference of that is you're listing the number on the prop. Right. Like, when I go to bet it, you're saying $100, and you won't take $100.
15:28
Okay, but this is not as nefarious as them spinning me from 50 to 1 to 25 to 1 after I gave them my money at the counter on an NBA draft bet, like, so- Yeah, agreed, yes...
15:37
so let's, let's, let's move on from this one- That's the worst... because this one is, this is just how Vegas, this is not just Caesars.
15:44
The, the apps have created, they f- have created way more hassle than good here in town. But your other story I think people will like better. Yeah, they'll probably like that better.
15:53
So this is, uh, the, uh, the first, uh, casino, the problem that I've run into, Gil, where I was, I was asked to, basically said, "Thanks for your business, but no thanks anymore for, uh, for your business."
16:04
This was blackjack, uh, at the M, who no longer would like me to play there, uh, apparently after last weekend. Um, I don't know. It's a wild story. I love the M. It's a place that I go to a lot.
16:14
It's one of my local spots. Uh, I don't usually go there to bet much sports or to play much blackjack or anything. It's usually hang out, have a couple drinks, play some video poker. Um- Backed off at the M.
16:25
Backed off at the M, man. And it sucks. Like, it sucks. There's a lot of great people there. I got a great casino host there. There's a lot of good bartenders and, and cocktail waitresses that I love, that know me well.
16:36
Um, and I don't, you know, I think we all kinda have our places where it's, I'm not gonna go bet heavily sports there or something where maybe they wanna kick me out 'cause I like going there, right?
16:46
Uh, but yeah, I had, had a friend in town. We were gonna go play some blackjack Friday night. We go in with a group of people, and we've had several drinks in us, Gil.
16:55
So, like, this is- You're not even sound of mind at this point...
16:58
I mean, like, I, I mean, I am, but, but just, okay, if you're running a casino in Las Vegas, you're seeing a group of people, four people roll in with drinks in hand, clearly having had a few, and throwing down thousands of dollars of cash on the table ready to play, I would think every casino in this town is like, [laughs] "This is what Las Vegas was built on.
17:18
Let's go. Let's play some cards." And, um, after I won f- uh, about five grand off of them, that's it, five grand, I was, when I returned the next day, I was told, uh, "You are no longer welcome to play blackjack here."
17:29
How does that, walk us through that. You sit at the table, you start playing, and someone taps you on the shoulder? Uh, yes, that was the following day.
17:36
They let me play for the entire first night when I r- when I ran it up. No, again, and then the next day, so you s- you start to play again and someone- I played, like, three hands.
17:42
Some guy came over, it was the casino manager, and he said, uh, "You're welcome to play anything you want in this casino. We appreciate your business, but you can no longer play blackjack here anymore."
17:51
How, how belligerent did you get? I w- I mean, at first I was just shocked. I was stunned. I was stunned because I've, I've had such a good relationship with everybody at the M before this, never had a problem.
18:01
I have, although I don't play it regularly, I have played a fair amount of blackjack there, and for fairly-... heavy stakes.
18:09
So, like, w- the amount I was betting that night before was not out of character for what I would bet, um, or what I've bet there before. So- Wait, how quickly did you say, "Y'all doing this for five grand?" F- it...
18:21
So at first I was shocked. That was the next thing that came out of my mouth. I said, "Because I took $5,000 off you guys last night. You're c- you are not letting me back because of that."
18:29
At a casino level, l- let's face it, it's not the most popular- No, I... But that's, that was my next line, Gil. It was the, "Okay, you're taking f- I took five grand and you're asking me to leave."
18:38
And w- by the time I was back there, this was Saturday, it was probably 3:00, 4:00. It was right after the Masters round. I went in there by myself to play.
18:44
And I'm like, [laughs] "They're, they're," "It's not about the money, sir. It's not about the money. Uh, you can play anything here, just not blackjack."
18:50
[laughs] And I'm like, "I'm sorry, am I missing the rest of the business that you guys have in here? Because I'm the only one in here on a Saturday at 4:00." That's what I'm looking for.
18:57
I'm like, "What are we talking about here?" I love the sarcasm. Um- Wait... man. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. It sucks, though. Like, it sucks. It's not something I ever wanted to happen.
19:05
So wait a minute, tell me the truth. Were you counting cards? I mean, like, look,
19:11
I had probably a baker's dozen drinks in me, but even, even a person with half a brain with a couple of the shoes that we had played could have figured out that there were some high cards coming, Gil.
19:22
'Cause you, 'cause you got a, a streak of low cards. Yes, it was a streak of low cards straight out of the shoe for the first, I don't know, three hands, and it was obvious.
19:32
And the other problem, the other one that they would not answer is that there was three other people at the table with me, okay? Person I was with, she didn't do very well, but the other two, guess what?
19:41
Were also upping bets and did very well for themselves when they walked away. So when I asked about whether they were welcome back in the casino or not, guess what? I didn't get an answer on that.
19:50
[laughs] That wasn't part of his script. They were also in from out of town. That wasn't part of his script. He doesn't have to answer those questions. Exa- he doesn't have to answer Wait, wait, wait.
19:55
Wait, sir, you're on the... Wait a second. Do... When, so in, in that inebriated I'm still kind of counting cards thing, did you step up your bets egregiously? I stepped up my bets, I would not say egregiously.
20:07
Well, uh- I would not say egregiously for what I have, what I've done playing blackjack in this town before and at The M specifically. If CB Fezek were here, you know what he would say?
20:17
He would say, "Well, [clears throat] you did step up your bets." [laughs] He would, he would- Yeah, no, no... yeah. He's right. Yeah.
20:22
And like, and you know, yes, that is, that's what alerted someone who had plenty of time on their hands to, I don't know- Ah, it's brutal... figure stuff out. Brutal. But I, it's just, it, it's one of these things, man.
20:33
In this town, a- and, you talk about casino gambling, you're talking about almost every game in the casino having an edge over the player. It's a, it's a mathematical edge. But- Unless you count and then the edge swings.
20:45
So, right, so the moment, the mo- They don't like that... the rare moment- Yeah... that you have something in your advantage- [laughs]... God forbid you take advantage of it, see you later, get the hell out of here.
20:55
What was your comment about the business? And it's, the other way, like, the, I don't know. Hold on. But like, the other one, like, this is what I come, keep coming back to.
21:01
'Cause what, one thing that really troubles me, and, and we've talked about it with Crack on this show before, one thing that really troubles me, e- especially with some of the casinos in this town and at some of the local places, it's when you start playing video poker and you see what the pay tables are.
21:14
And when the pay tables change and your odds get better when you bet more money, is ridiculous to me. It's the same game.
21:23
So what happens when you're looking at a 25 cent video poker machine and they're getting worse odds than if you were betting, uh, on a $5 denomination, $10 denomination, whatever, where you get better odds, a lot of these casinos, in my mind, are having very, taking advantage of some of their elderly customer population.
21:41
Oh, wow. And that, like, that is- Wow. I, I, I, that's what I believe. I know it's not, they're not the only casinos that do it.
21:47
Everybody does it in this town, but why are you taxing people that can only play for less money? Can I, uh, Columbo you out the door? Uh, one more thing. Did you tip on that $5,000 by any chance? Yeah, of course I did.
21:59
Oh, okay. I wanted to see if they used that as a sort of like, "Ah, I got him." No, I, actually- "He didn't even tip." I mean, you could, they could, they could say whatever they want about my, my play there.
22:06
There is not a single person in that casino- [laughs]... that would say I don't tip well on my way out, okay? It's a shame, man. We love The M, too. It sucks, I love The M. Yeah. Great pool.
22:14
I got great casino hosts there. Um, look, I'd, I'd love to keep coming back there, but the part that's tough, Gil, is it's really hard to mentally want to go support a place that tells you to get the hell out. Yep.
22:26
There's a certain casino I've never walked in again to. Yep. So let's see what happens. I just don't know if I'm ever gonna get, you know, you get paid. Like I said- Um-...
22:33
the town's giving me a signal to get out and go on vacation. When this town gets legalized betting, oh, my God, is it gonna be a place to live. We'll come back.
22:42
Those, uh, March, Aprils in Major League Baseball, Zach Cohen as well. Shenanigans, betting shenanigans with Kelly Midlan. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ready to get in on the action?
22:56
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23:03
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23:17
It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets at Bet Against The Book. Always appreciate the feedback. Best listeners in the game. JoeC714, "Wow, was not expecting to see it.
23:25
Kateryna Alexandrova plus 260 and Suzanne Lamens plus 195 both cashed this morning. Thank you, Gil." You are welcome, sir. My pleasure. "Sure wish Lois Boisson had held on." Fred Currier, huge on tennis. Chad Lee.
23:40
Thank you, Fred. Uh, Chad Lee, "Extra salty crack. You know, Gil, if this morning talk show [laughs] thing doesn't work out, LOL." Yeah, gotta, gotta clarify that.
23:48
Nathan Mallinson, "Is the CLV store located close to the black market?" He's wondering. [laughs] Just a general question. I don't know. I, I like the, I like the- That's a great tweet...
23:57
I like the existential gambling questions like that, that have no b- "Hey, just wondering." [laughs] No, I, I, yeah, I think you nailed it, actually. I do, too.
24:04
The CLV store might be located directly in the black market. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, located close by. LosVegas514, "Yo, a lot of gakkin' over there at Sheesh." He s- he said something else.
24:15
He spelled it wrong, but I don't, yeah, I don't know. Uh, 3JackH3131, "Hey Gil, great bounce back today. And for the Boisson loser, it is not your fault." Trust me, I know. I know. Primetimecowboys_Cubs1, yo.
24:27
Hey man, that really is your name. So you bet tennis? I haven't heard that. Probably gonna jump on that Iga chicks bandwagon, eh? [laughs] What's next? Gonna tell you have you injured your Achil- your Achilles before?
24:36
Uh, hasn't come up for weeks. Oh, man. I love Primetime. Todd Bubba Horwitz, our buddy, "Mr. Bidland, you are too good for us. We don't want your business. The Bidland name is out there. No sports, do blackjack.
24:47
If you don't lose, we don't want you." No sports, no blackjack, he says. If you don't lose, we don't want you. Moneyline Marv. I mean, that's, that's it, though. Like, that's it. It's, it's come to this town- Yes...
24:56
have a good time. As long as you're losing. Comp drinks- Yes... all that good stuff. Oh, yeah. Uh, we, hey, guess what? We even let you win once, but, [laughs] well, never again, though. Dude, it's- Never again...
25:06
it's just like, it's just like a, a random skin sports betting. Like, as long as you're losing, they're fine. As soon as you win, they're like, "Hey, uh, uh, so I'm gonna try to pay you," like, "Well, I'm working on it."
25:17
Yeah. What do you mean you're working on it? Working on it. Moneyline Marv, "LMAO," he said, "Kelly's pause at the card counting question was the rub."
25:24
[laughs] Matt Trudell, Five Star Real- uh, Realty, says, "The, uh, second story was way better, but 5K, you shark. Gil, you need to charge Kelly a small counseling fee. Baker's dozen, sure."
25:36
And Berner at Berneracci says, "Bidland with the about a baker's dozen drinks in me. SD Jones forever. Love you guys." Thank you, man.
25:43
[laughs] I mean, I mean, this is like the, the, I, I, you gotta shut me up at some point, Gil, but, like, this is the part where it's like, okay, so what, how does this work afterward?
25:50
They go back and actually look at video, and they wanna see what I'm doing, right?
25:55
Well, maybe you should've seen what I was doing at noon that day when I was sitting in your pool having cocktails watching the Masters, 'cause then fast-forward nine hours later, pretty sure you'd want my action then.
26:06
[laughs] Kelly, Kelly's about to blow. ScreamingASmith, "Time for Kelly to wear a disguise." Teasers and Parlays, "Let's go." Jeffrey S Devore, "Enjoying this version of the Zack and Cracken. Kelly Salt Shack Thursday."
26:16
[laughs] Great start to the show. And then Jack Oldacquire, "Gil, same thing happened to Kelly happened to my brother Jim at a casino that you used to work out of.
26:23
When he asked why, they told him, 'We don't like your style of play.'"
26:28
And Uncle Buck, "If I were you guys, I'd stay away from table games and keep betting on everyone's favorite, Sarah Tiansuo Sarah Rakohtomongy Rajoona." Nailed it. Yeah, she was big yesterday for us.
26:37
Uh, Zach Cohen, speaking of tennis, joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at BettingonX, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
26:44
And as he told me just before his spot, you too were on Lois Boisson this morning? Yep, I was, and I, and I'm going to go ahead and, and, and second that she should be wearing more deodorant because she stinks.
26:54
[laughs] Oh my gosh, I caught this story. Did you hear about that? Yes. [laughs] In her, what Zach is referring to is that in Lois Boisson's previous match against- I didn't know this was the same woman, okay...
27:02
the British Harriet Dart, Dart was frustrated. She had lost the first set.
27:07
She was, like, super frustrated, and as she's going on a change, she casually mentions to the umpire, "Hey, could you tell, uh, Boisson over there to wear some deodorant 'cause she really stinks."
27:17
I, I was, I could not believe I read that. [laughs] Oh my God. It's a tennis match too. Like, you're not, like, this isn't g- even golf, right? Still outdoors. You're, you're, you're standing next to each other a lot.
27:27
You're not standing next to each other ever. Of all the tennis frustration remarks, uh, "My opponent smells. Could you tell her to put on deodorant?" Yeah, that's- Is one of the greats-... it is... of all time.
27:36
Well, she, Zach, you're right. She does stink after today. [laughs] Um, but again, it, it's been a good day nonetheless, and you just have to sort of harp on that. Any tennis left for you today, sir?
27:47
Yeah, I'm with you on Marozsan. Uh, I got plus 105 on that. Ooh. I, I, I really am confused about those odds. Hu- Hugo Humbert is playing with a broken hand right now.
27:56
He has it completely wrapped up in Monte Carlo, like there's a giant wrapping on it. He can barely hit a backhand. I know he was able to beat Nico Jarry last match, but this is going to be a much tougher opponent.
28:07
Uh, Marozsan is a good clay court player. I really think he should win this one. Okay, we're on the same play. What could go wrong? And yes, you're right. [laughs] Hugo Humbert may have a broken hand. Yeah.
28:16
[laughs] So that's, that's a good thing. What could possibly go wrong- Yeah... on that? Um- Interesting...
28:20
uh, yes, Hugo Humbert, otherwise a better tennis player than, uh, Marozsan, although not on this surface necessarily. Uh, okay, to the NBA, sir.
28:29
By the way, do you have any futures in tennis yet at any point in anything before we move on? Yeah, actually, I'm happy you asked 'cause I almost forgot to say Iga's plus 110 at BetRivers to win the French Open.
28:38
Dude, dude. And I jumped on it. [laughs] I s- I, I don't understand it... I'm so glad you mentioned this. Uh, a bookmaker had her at plus 117 yesterday at the French Open.
28:48
I grabbed her at plus 117, plus 116, plus 150, and then I stopped betting it. And then I go to another book, and she's minus 175 still. Yep. What, what's, what is that? Whoa.
28:58
I thought maybe I missed, you know, like something at like Billie Jean King Cup, where she played poorly, but it doesn't look like I did.
29:04
I think people maybe just don't believe in her as much with Andreva playing well, Sabalenka playing well, but it's kind of like a Carlos situation for me, where I just think you're gonna get back on the dirt and see a different player.
29:14
So I have, uh, Iga to win Stuttgart this week. I, I think she's gonna win the French Open again. Uh, at plus money odds, either way you have to find out.
29:21
I have her in both as well, Stuttgart, where she's won twice before, and the French Open, where she's won four times before. Uh, okay, to the NBA. You have play-in fever, Zach? Is, is you catching play-in fever?
29:32
I- What do you, what do you have in... Oh, I'm sorry. Go ahead. You wanted to answer. [laughs] No, I was gonna say- Yeah... I, I enjoyed the Grizzlies-Warriors game. I don't need the nine versus 10 games.
29:39
I don't need these, uh, games for the eight seeds. Totally agree. That was, uh, Will Hill, w- on our group chat, said that last night, and it was kind of a consensus agreement, which is, do we really need this game?
29:51
Like, is this really a thing? But, uh, the NBA's milking it, obviously. That, that would be my comment on the, uh, "How was the play-in tournament?" Grizzlies-Warriors was great. Yeah. And then the rest.
30:01
And then who could have cared less? Yep. Especially the way those two games went last night, two blowouts. Uh, that said, we can bet on these.
30:08
So in the loser seven-eight, winner nine-10 games, uh, it's the Hawks one point favorites against the Heat. It's the Grizzlies six and a half point favorites against the Mavs. Did you play anything?
30:18
I have the over 221.5 in Mavs Grizzlies. I, I know that Nico Harrison said defense wins championships, but this has been an over team with Anthony Davis.
30:26
I think eight of the 10 games he has played with Dallas has gone over the total. Uh, they're 15 and four to the over in their last 19 games. That game against the Kings went over the total.
30:35
They played really well offensively, and this is kind of the second game in a row where I've noticed the dunks and threes. They do a predictive score for every game.
30:43
They've had a predictive score of 10 points over the total in two games in a row. Uh, they have 121 to 115 for the Grizzlies in this one.
30:49
So I kind of just think there's a little bit of value in taking the over, especially knowing, you know, that Memphis is a team that was really good offensively, really bad defensively. Okay.
30:57
And so remind us now in our final few minutes with you, remind us where you stand on all of the series prices that have been established already.
31:04
Everything, of course, but the one-eighths have been established, and then your futures plays. Yeah, all right. Let me list out my, uh, [laughs] my series plays. I have a bunch.
31:13
I have Clippers plus 120, Timberwolves plus 166, Pacers minus 160, and then Rockets plus 165, and Rockets minus one and a half games plus 340. Wow. All over the place. Okay. Yeah.
31:27
Um, do you know a human being in our little sphere of the world that is not on the Clippers, that is on the Nuggets- No... in fact? 'Cause this is what w- from, from afar, this is what worries me.
31:38
That does worry me, too.
31:40
I, I don't know if it's just, you know, people not realizing kind of the advanced stats profile of the Clippers over the last two months because you can kind of be guilty of zooming out and looking at what they've done over the course of the entire season.
31:51
But over the last two months, you know, since the start of March, this has been a team that has been as good as the Thunder and as good as the Celtics. So I think this is, you know, a really good value.
31:59
Uh, even if you have to play it a- at minus money, I just think that this is a team that really should win.
32:03
Obviously Denver has looked a little bit better with Adelman at their head coach, but I just don't see them winning even though they do have a very strong home court advantage.
32:11
Gil, I did catch while I was, uh, writing up, doing some write-ups for Zack and Adam for the NBA, uh, betting guide. Is that what we're call- is that what we're calling it, Zack? NBA betting guide?
32:19
I, I don't e- it's just gonna be like staff best bets. We're not doing a guide. [laughs] Okay, staff best bets. I did. Here's a little bit of a tease. Head over there. There is someone on there that has the Nuggets.
32:29
Oh, okay. Oh. A human being has, has backed the Nuggets in this. Yes. Well, thank God for that.
32:35
Um, and before we go, any, uh, game one plays for you, spreads or totals on Saturday or the ones that have now been established for Sunday? Yeah, you know, it's tough.
32:45
I don't know if you guys feel the same way, but when you bet so many series prices, it's always really difficult to bet game by game. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
32:50
But I do think I'm probably gonna take the Lakers minus four in game one, and part of that does, you know, kind of go into the thinking with me with Minnesota where I think there's gonna be some adjustments to be made for T- the Timberwolves where they're probably gonna have to play Mike Conley less, but I think it's the type of situation where you're gonna have to find that out a- and see for yourself that you're gonna have to do it.
33:08
So I think maybe game one they go out and lose in LA, and then, you know, we see more DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in game two. Zack, appreciate it. Zack wearing a, uh, Alo sweatshirt today.
33:19
Is that the, uh, brand? Alo hoodie. Yeah, it is Alo. It's, uh, Jimmy Butler endorses this. Oh, well then Zack Cohen must endorse it as well if Jimmy Butler's endorsing it. Um, good luck with all the bets.
33:30
Sorry you got Luis Boisson as well. [laughs] No problem. Thanks. Zack Cohen. Betting On X is where you can find him on Twitter. Great, great Twitter handle. Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, NFL draft next.
33:43
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33:56
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34:01
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34:06
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34:15
VSiN at the Track tomorrow streaming live at 2:10 PM Eastern as we count down to the Triple Crown. [upbeat music] Gil, you're bumbling. Pointing to me. I just texted you something. Oh, okay. Hold on.
34:29
Just checking this real quick. That I should've done like a day ago. Live on air kind of thing? Yeah. Oh, you should've done that yesterday? Yeah. Oh, okay.
34:35
Um, ladies and gentlemen, uh, it is always a pleasure to have this, uh, gentleman on the show because he, uh, he handicaps not just the NFL draft, he handicaps the NBA draft, the MLB draft, the NHL draft.
34:47
He does it all, and he does it very well. It's all documented. He is here, of course, to talk NFL draft with us. Six days away. It's Luke Swain.
34:56
Vegas Refund is where you can find him on Twitter, vegasrefund.com, and of course, a contributor at the Action Network. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Luke? Good. Doing good.
35:06
Let- Excited... let's start, let's start with this just generality before we get to specifics.
35:10
Is the golden age of us, and by us meaning most bettors who have been betting the NFL draft for years, is the golden age of this over, or are you still holding hope that this could be, this year could be the beginning of, of, uh, a continuation of all of that?
35:28
I, I'm definitely holding hope. I think that it's definitely a common thread that the golden age is over, and I think a lot of...
35:36
You're gonna hear a lot of people saying like, the props are a lot sharper this year, which I, I tend to disagree because I think it more has to do with the draft just being way more up in the air relative to past years where, um, the over-unders might seem sharp, but it's really just the uncertainty on players where there's gonna be a consensus on a couple players who go one spot.
35:54
And if they don't go there, the range for them to fall is super wide.
35:58
So the certainty on over-unders is definitely wider, um, which to me, I think books, this is like a prime opportunity for books to get a little bit more aggressive on offering props relative to past years.
36:08
But I definitely still h- hold hope, um- Where over-unders came out earlier this year than they ever have- Yeah... honestly.
36:16
And you were saying an example of that kind of wide range of outcomes is, like, a Matthew Golden wide out from Texas who could go, you know, relatively high, and then if he doesn't, could drop dramatically, that kind of thing with a lot of these players.
36:28
Before we get to your- Exactly... over-unders and these positional, these props, let's, uh, at the top of the draft, tell us what you think you know for sure.
36:37
Uh, obviously Cam Ward to the Titans, I think we all know for sure. What do you know for sure beyond that, and what don't you know at all at the top? So there's definitely a consensus right now top, let's just say, nine.
36:50
And to me, I think the order, um, the chalk order is probably the most like likely right now, uh, where the, the Jags and the Raiders are kind of where the landmines can happen.
37:02
But in the end, which thankfully, um, I think no matter the order, the same top 9 or 10 guys are gonna go in the top 10, which in years past, if a random guy's jumped into the top 10, like,
37:13
uh, f- Wetler falling out, it's been a landmine and a ripple effect that's caused chaos to the order after that, but I still think the top 10 is gonna be the same 10 guys, which I could go through them. Um- Yeah.
37:25
Let's, uh, so it's Ward to the Titans. It's- Yep, Ward to the Titans, Hunter to the Browns, and then Carter. Campbell's definitely seems like a certainty. And then Graham is chalk.
37:35
I think, I think right now it's fair to put him there. And then Mambu, who yesterday there were some rumors about Mambu going to the Raiders, um, and then passing on Jeanty. I like that.
37:46
Which I'm kind of buying a little bit. Um, and then Mambu, Jeanty, Walker, Warren, I think are the nine chalk to go in the top 10. And if someone's gonna...
37:57
There is a limelight, landmine, I think it is Walker who could jump into the five or six spot, um, out of Georgia, which his odds have drastically come down.
38:06
Um, but Walker's probably the guy that a team can go a little bit higher if they don't go, like, Mambu, um, earlier than expected.
38:12
So if you, so you're saying if, if the Raiders don't go Jeanty, someone else in the top 10 will? Yeah, which I would say Jeanty's, I would say the Bears would probably be the latest, um- At 10.
38:25
Yeah, which would- That would still win the bet for us. And we will be very okay with that, yes. We will be very okay with that at nine and a half. Go Bears, go. Yeah. Yeah.
38:31
Um, and Shedeur, where do you stand on Shedeur right now? So I, I stand, right now, like, if I'm making a mock draft right now, he's going to the Steelers at 21. Um, I, trades, I just can't...
38:43
You can't factor trades in, um, at all, which I think they are possible. But Shedeur, 21, I would say is probably the earliest I see him going if there isn't a trade.
38:55
And then, I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if he falls out of the first.
38:58
Um, Jaxson Dart is, I think, the trendy guy to the Saints, which makes a lot more sense than Shedeur, but I'm also functioning with the assumption that the Saints aren't gonna go QB at nine.
39:09
They will not pick him at nine. That was my follow-up. Okay. Um, you have made a quite a, quite a few positional bets thus far. Would you like to share with us? Yeah. So a couple I've made right now, which
39:22
I made Shedeur over eight and a half. I did Omarion Hampton over 19 and a half. And the one I did yesterday was Mike Williams under 15 and a half.
39:33
Uh, usually, and I, I track when I have made them in the past, and I definitely would have more
39:39
a week out than I have in years past, but it kind of speaks to the uncertainty that we're dealing with right now, and I definitely expect to have a lot more in the coming week. But
39:48
those are the only three I have right now in terms of over-unders. I've, Jerome Barron was probably a good one to have over, I think it was 17 and a half.
39:56
Uh, but the worst one, and the one I did miss out, was Calvin Banks. That opened up at 24 and a half. It's all the way down to 13 and a half now. Ooh.
40:03
The under is juiced, and he's definitely the, the super trendy guy, almost like a JC Latham last year, um, that could go as high as... I mean, he could go as high as the Jets at seven.
40:17
Um, I wouldn't be shocked if Mambu went six. Luke, could you repeat the three that you made? 'Cause we were, you ran through them real quick. What were the three- Oh, sorry... that you already made? Yep.
40:25
So I made Shedeur over n- eight and a half, Omarion Hampton over 19 and a half, and then Mike Williams under 15 and a half. Okay.
40:36
Um, did you make any bets in over two and a half quarterbacks, under two and a half quarterbacks, or over two and a half running backs, or under that number? I have not made any bets on those.
40:49
I, in principle, avoid the QB props, [laughs] um, greatly. Uh, Bo Nix, I think, is a great example of why you wanna avoid those. But I would say, man, running backs over two and a half.
41:02
Henderson has been getting a lot of love recently. Um, but I would, honestly, I would tou- I wouldn't touch any of them at this point. Yeah.
41:12
They, well, we, we touched them, but we recognize as we're touching them, we're putting our hand- [laughs] Yeah... on a stove 'cause there's so much juice involved in those.
41:19
Uh, are those the only three bets that you've made in in entirety, or have you made other bets? I made some others.
41:24
I think one that's really good right now is, and this is probably gonna be a common theme in the content space coming up, but Saints position, first position to be drafted.
41:34
Right now, defensive line is plus 650, which I think that is a great angle- Ooh. Oh... right now, and- Write that down...
41:41
quarterback is the favorite at plus 200, which if you're functioning at the assumption that they're not gonna go QB at nine, and you can't function assuming that they're gonna trade out, 'cause I don't think they're going to.
41:52
But I think defensive line at plus 650 is a, a great look. Uh, Mike Williams, you got Shemar Stewart, um, those would be the two favorites, which both of them are
42:02
10 to one-ish just to go pick nine exact, but you can cover both with plus 650. Go on. [laughs] Yeah. We're all ears. Saints D line plus 650. D line/edge or however it's, uh, phrased. Yeah. What else?
42:17
Uh, then I like Trey Amos to go in the first round, which that can be anywhere from 265 to 300. Uh, this one, he's a corner out of Ole Miss, and honestly, I'm surprised it's still this high.
42:28
But this is one that if you listen to Dane Brugler, Jeremiah, um, and then a couple of the beat writers, there have been, uh, tweets in, in the, their pieces that he doesn't get past the Bills at 30.
42:42
And he's definitely a guy that's been rising, and I think Maxwell Harrison is the guy that might be offsetting him, especially that since he was invited to the draft.
42:51
But in a market that the odds are fake and it is hard to get value at plus money, I think Trey Am- Amos is a great bet. He could go as early to the Packers and as late to the Bills.
43:03
He is plus 265 over at DraftKings to be a first-round pick. Re- remember that line that Luke just said right there, where the odds are fake, 'cause none of us- [laughs] They are... none of us knows, right?
43:13
None of us knows. [laughs] Uh, anything else? Uh, I think that would be- Those are the two, those are the two sexiest ones? Yeah, those are the three I wrote down. Um- Okay.
43:25
Lu- Luke, are you finding that there's more value in those markets of the team?
43:30
Uh, 'cause I've been looking at tho- a couple of those too, of, uh, what, the team position to draft a certain position where the favorite just seems to be a little too heavily priced.
43:40
Yeah, and I think you can really find them where you find the teams that have, like, almost, like, a group think in terms of the mock drafts. Uh,
43:49
and you find the value there, where, like, the Saints are the group pick, group think for QB, or maybe the Bengals are minus 200 to draft a D-line.
43:57
Uh, I think there's definitely the most value in the team markets for sure, but then I think there's also a ton of m- value in parlaying first-rounders. Hmm. Um, which you can parlay to go in the first round on
44:10
two of the biggest books.
44:11
Um, and Trey Amos, you could parlay with some guy that is, uh, pretty much a lock to go in the first round and get that 265 all the way up to 300, 400, whatever you want, um, and just add legs to him. Luke, A+.
44:26
Really appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thank you. Coming back with Crack Unscripted from Hilton Head next.
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