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Apr 17, 2026
A Numbers Game | April 17, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 17, 2026 | Hour 1
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45:12
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Danny Higgins in for the vacationing.
0:21
Oh, I'm sorry, uh, Kelly Bilin is on assignment. On assignment. So that's why Danny is in for, uh, Kelly. Kelly will, uh, be off today and then Monday again. Yes, he'll be back on Tuesday. Allegedly back on Tuesday.
0:32
See about that. Hope he's having a good time on his assignment, as we call it, uh, here and then in LA, I believe is where his whereabouts will be. Today on the show, Paul Carr on the Premier League coming off a sweep.
0:45
How do you like a sweet, a sweep rather? I can't even say it anymore. Uh, how do you guys like a sweep? Paul Carr coming back to talk Premier League with us today, uh, this hour as a matter of fact.
0:54
Joe Sheehan on Major League Baseball. Chris Felica, uh, off his appearance on the Beating the Book NFL Draft pod yesterday.
1:01
We had Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, Drew Dinsick, and Chris Felica on the Beating the Book Draft pod yesterday. It was awesome.
1:08
Uh, matter of fact, I'm gonna play some sound here from Chris, uh, from that podcast here momentarily, but we'll talk draft with him. Derby, I don't know if he has other horse racing plays as well. He- He does.
1:19
I just got a horse racing play from him for the Derby. Oh, horse racing. Is it today? Oh, for the Derby. Nothing this weekend though? Uh, not this weekend, no. Okay. Derby, Derby horse racing update from Chris.
1:27
Everything else, he's betting. Ben Wilson will join us, but not in studio? No? Not in studio, no. His other guest spot got pushed back- Oh, boo... so he's gonna have to be on V-Mix. Boo.
1:36
Uh, but he'll have some, uh, clay court tennis for us as well, some college baseball. Look forward to that with Ben Wilson, and then, uh, it is Fezzik Fridays, right?
1:44
Fridays with Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest, will join us in studio for maybe the entire last hour today as we, uh, as we close out the week on a numbers game.
1:54
Uh, it was a night without NBA. Obviously, the play-in games are tonight between, in the, in the East, between the, uh, the Magic and the Hornets, and the Warriors and the Clippers. Those are for the eight seed,
2:07
eight seeds respectively in the Eastern and Western Conferences. Um, what, what did I say? The Warriors and the Clippers? I meant the War- uh, what did I say? You used Warriors, Clippers. Yeah. Warriors, Suns.
2:15
Warriors, Suns, pardon me. I, I caught it like five seconds later. Yeah. Uh, Suns and Hornets both three and a half favorites in those, uh, three and a half point favorites in those respective games.
2:24
Those again for the eight seeds.
2:25
The playoffs, all four other series, which we've talked about ad nauseam here this week it feels like, all begin tomorrow, all of the three sixes and the four fives that is that have been established for some time now.
2:36
Hopefully, the games tonight are close to as good as three of those four games were on Tuesday and Wednesday night. Yeah, that'd be great.
2:43
I mean, those, like you said, three out of those four games were, were awesome- Ah... on Tuesday and Wednesday. So good. Uh, so we didn't have any NBA last night.
2:49
Hockey, the regular season closes, so we have all of that now set in stone. There's only a few things that needed to be determined last night.
2:56
Uh, hockey begins the playoffs tomorrow as well, so it was a re- it was a weird night because there was also day baseball. There was very little, um, going on in terms of the full breadth of sports last night.
3:07
Uh, though we did have, we did have a couple pitching performances that probably need to be talked about, and the reason that one of them needs to be talked about is 'cause we have a, we've got here behind the glasses that's, uh...
3:16
He's very upset. We have to tell this story. But f- first of all, shout out to, uh, the Cleveland Guardians ace. Now, can we call him the ace right now of the staff? Parker Messick.
3:26
When I was doing my Cleveland Guardians under play earlier this season, if you are a keen observer, I did talk about how good Parker Messick is. Uh, he c- comes within three outs of a no-no yesterday against the Orioles.
3:39
Guardians beat, uh, the Birds 4 to 2 yesterday. The other one though that is of some significance around here, Mason Miller, another three up, three down for the Padres.
3:48
Um, three strikeouts, and so again, just the Mason Miller update. You know, this is, this'll be just [laughs] getting to the Chris Foster story here, who works behind the glass here.
3:58
Chris, uh, Chris is very angry this morning. We have a Chris Foster story about Mason Miller. But Mason Miller now, let's just, let's just update the numbers for this year alone.
4:08
Well, let's start with, again, he allowed two runs on August 5th, 2025. Hasn't allowed a run since. That includes the postseason, the World Baseball Classic as well.
4:19
Since that day in August of last year, he's had 32 total outings across three different events, right? Well, three different events called postseason, World Baseball Classic, and this regular season. 32 outings.
4:29
He's thrown 34 and a third innings. He's allowed just four hits in that span to go with no runs, 76 strikeouts, uh, which works out to 19.92 strikeouts per nine innings, and his WHIP in that stretch is 0.41.
4:44
As far as this year alone now, nine point, uh, let's see, nine and a third, no earned runs, one hit, 23 K's, one walk, 22.19 K's per nine, a 0.21 WHIP,
5:01
and six saves. [laughs] It's, it's just... So now here's the thing. So our, our buddy Chris Foster, who is, among other things, he's a big LeBron fan. Yeah. You can't argue with him about LeBron.
5:09
He's, he's, you know, LeBron's the greatest of all time, he says. Uh, but he had a Mas- he was gonna... He bet Mason Miller before the season started. He bet Mason Miller at triple digits. Yes.
5:19
And then somebody told him, I don't know who. Who told him? Do you know who told him this? Uh, yeah, we're not gonna say who told him, but yeah. Okay. Somebody told him. He said, "This is the dumbest bet of all time."
5:29
And so Chris became influenced by that and he cashed out. He cashed out of his Mason Miller bets, and now Mason Miller's as low as 10 to 1 at the Borgata, we just heard this morning on By The Books with Jensen. Yes.
5:39
Currently on DraftKings he's 15 to 1. Okay.
5:41
Uh, 15 to 1 most spots, and this morning on By The Books with, uh, Jensen and Mark Malusis, they spoke with Thomas Gable from the Borgata, and they said they got him at 10 to 1- Okay... at the Borgata. So Chris is livid.
5:52
He's livid, and he's lashing out, and he's just, he's acting out. We can't control him.
5:57
And, uh, I just wanna say to him also, this is i- in me, I have the 40 to 1 from this weekend 'cause I just wanted to get it in, wanted to put it in the account, and not have to think about it.
6:06
I know it wasn't the best number that everybody else got also. But he shouldn't be that mad. I'll just say it again.
6:12
You have to suspend, if Mason Miller is going to win the Cy Young, it's a, it's a large if, because to, to do so, you have to suspend, and in betting him you have to know this, you have to suspend the Tom Tango formula.
6:27
Because for a relief pitcher, that doesn't track. Because the Tom Tango Cy Young point system, which has correctly identified 32 of the, excuse me, now it's 33 out of the last 40 Cy Young winners across both AL and NL.
6:42
So 33 out of the last 40 over the last 20 years. The formula again is innings pitched divided by two, minus earned runs, plus strikeouts divided by 10, plus wins. Sorry about the formula.
6:52
He's-- If that formula, which is tried and true, he's not gonna have enough innings pitched as a, a re- a reliever on the first part of that formula, and he's not gonna have enough wins on the back end of that formula.
7:05
So he's just going to have to do this very specific thing where no one can ever touch him three outs at a time for basically the whole season. Yeah. That's the bet. So Chris, he, he could end up very mad.
7:20
He shouldn't be mad right now. No. He should not. I just wanna point that out for Mason Miller, uh, bettors. So what was I getting at with all this?
7:26
So because it was a light sports, a light-ish sports night, uh, and I had the NFL draft pod, Beating the Book, with, uh, Luke, Drew, and Chris yesterday.
7:34
We sorta dove full bore into the draft, and I made way too many bets yesterday. [laughs] Way too many.
7:40
I got-- I sorta had-- Drew, Drew mentioned this on the show, I kinda had the same attitude, which is I kinda got sick of having no bets on this thing. And so what I did was I, I put...
7:49
Well, Yahoo did a great job of, of consolidating five of the most recent mock drafts, four of which took place the day before yesterday. Vinnie Iyer from the Sporting News, Mel Kiper Jr.
8:01
from ESPN, uh, Dane Brugler from The Athletic, and Todd McShay, used to be at ESPN, now at The Ringer, and as a fifth threw in Daniel Jeremiah's last mock draft, which was back on March 17th.
8:11
Daniel Jeremiah still has one more to come. He usually waits till the day before to do his last one. Yeah.
8:17
But it's those four from the day before yesterday and Daniel Jeremiah's, and we just wanted to look at the DraftKings, uh, over-unders on some of these numbers. And I wanna start with, let's-- Can we start out of order?
8:29
Let's start with Ty Simpson, where Ty Simpson, uh, his draft number, his draft position to be drafted is 24 and a half. The over, meaning 25 or beyond, is heavily juiced at minus 330. Uh, the under is plus 235.
8:46
Uh, we have Ty Simpson second to last on a graphic that will appear here. Uh, this was... Now, just to give you an idea about, well, oh, man, I mean, this is a really interesting one.
8:55
Is there any value on the plus 235 at under 24 and a half? This is from the Beating the Book podcast yesterday.
9:03
This is-- The reason I wanted Chris Fallica on is that Luke is a great draft bettor, he has a great record over time. Drew is always into this year after year, as am I.
9:11
But Chris, uh, speaks to some folks that, uh, maybe none, none of the rest of us do.
9:15
This is Chris Fallica, "The Bear," from Fox Sports on the prospects of Ty Simpson through the prism of that betting line going under 24 and a half. Yeah. Um- Can, can I, can I present a dissenting argument on Ty Simpson?
9:27
And now, ladies and gentlemen, Chris Fallica tells us how wrong we all are. Yes. Ty Simpson. Who is the, who is the, uh, who is the team? The Rams. The Rams.
9:35
They, they, I think there is some Rams 16 to one to take a quarterback with their, with many, le- less- 13? Uh, I don't think it would be at 13.
9:43
I, I think they would be in a, hoping that a team would be looking to come up, and they would to, they would be coming back, and maybe they can acquire a couple of picks and still get the guy that they want.
9:51
But it's a, I, I think it's a perfect situation for Simpson. You go there behind Matthew Stafford, who is in his final year or two, uh, doesn't have to play right away.
9:59
I, I'm just as a college football guy at heart, I'm just trying to put myself in his position. He turned down a, from a couple of very high-profile schools, I believe Oregon, I believe Miami, to go to the NFL draft.
10:10
He had to have had some type of first-round promise- Right... situation type deal to, to turn down the type of money that he had. So
10:17
I, I, I, I know you probably have to get in front of the Jets or get in front of the Cardinals there at the top of the, the second round, but I think he's gonna go in the first round, and it would not surprise me if the Rams were the team to take a, uh, take a shot at him.
10:27
So I know you can get, you can get a pretty good price on Rams' first pick to be a, uh, to be a quarterback. Now, paired with the Rams specifically, you can get a really great price- Yes...
10:36
if you can find that prop, which, which does exist, right? Players to specific teams. But just the under 23 and a half, as we mentioned, is plus 235 at DraftKings. Do you go with Chris' suspicion there?
10:48
'Cause, 'cause what he does say makes a lot of sense. Oh, it does. Right? Ty Simpson's not gonna do this unless he thinks he knows something. Yes.
10:55
Um, now to the question of whether he would go exactly 13, what Chris was saying, in case you missed that, was he doesn't think that, but he does think the Rams will do this thing where they will perhaps trade down, trade back up to get in front of teams like Arizona that want a quarterback.
11:09
So that's a very interesting one. Just one, a one-player case of how you would consider. By the way, for what it's worth, the five mockers that I mentioned. Can we call them mockers?
11:19
Uh, Ty Simpson had, uh, what, Vinnie Iyer had him not in the first round. Uh, Dane Brugler had him not in the first round. Daniel Jeremiah in his last one had him not in the first round. And Mel Kiper Jr.
11:32
and Todd McShay both had him at 30. That is why you're seeing almost as big a reason as any is over minus 330 to go over 24 and a half. But an interesting theory from Chris Fallica. We'll come back.
11:44
We'll do, uh, a whole bunch of these, 12 others, over-unders where those five mockers have them, and if the bets abound next. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
11:55
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12:06
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12:19
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12:30
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12:38
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12:46
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12:57
Gil Alexander. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook, always appreciated. Well, we have a couple updates. First of all, one, uh, Chris Foster, I have, uh, talked him off the proverbial ledge. Yes.
13:06
He feels a little better, he says. He said, "Basically Mason Miller has to be perfect." I was like, "That's correct." But if he is perfect, God help us all. [laughs] Chris is, Chris is going to be very angry.
13:18
Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook, Xavier 82, "Let's go. Hey Gil, what bit th- uh, what bet this year do you think will save your NFL draft?
13:25
Not looking to bet anything, just curious what you think will be there, uh, when you look back and go, 'Nope, that wasn't it.' LOL."
13:32
Oh, uh, 'cause this was a response to what I was saying on the podcast, which is four, five years ago with the NFL draft, we were all destroying it. I'm talking about even six, seven years ago.
13:40
And again, I was talking about the NFL draft betting on this show, like the first year of VSiN, before anybody else was talking about it. It wasn't a popular thing.
13:48
My pinned tweet to this day is from a Will Hill NFL draft dispute. It's still up there after all these years. By the way, I've aged horrifically. [laughs] I just wanna say that.
13:59
But, uh, so we've been, we've been doing this for a long time. We used to crush the draft. Like, I'm talking like 12 and ones, eight and ohs.
14:05
But I pointed out on the, on the podcast, that shifted to a couple drafts where, drafts where it was like one thing saved me, right? So like Derek Stingley Jr.
14:16
going third to Houston one year, just kinda saved that draft. Joe Alt going fifth to the Chargers, was that last year? I can't even remember the years now. Uh, that saved that draft.
14:28
So w- what, uh, Xavier's asking is, "What's, [laughs] what's the pick that's gonna save this draft?" I don't know, man. I hope something does, 'cause I got a bunch of picks I'm about to give out here momentarily.
14:37
Uh, Michael Burns, "I looked this morning and my NFL draft bets on BetMGM were canceled. Any idea why?" Dude, I have no idea why. Oh. What's that about?
14:48
NoEMU Doug, "I am excitedly awaiting the ES- the ESPN special on Consejo Mundial de Lucha Libre right after their gripping WWE coverage. The National Enquirer would be so jealous."
15:00
Uh, NoEMU Doug has had it with ESPN covering SmackDown or, or the, uh, I should say, uh, WrestleMania 42 this weekend. Oh, I guess he's saying the, uh, World Wrestling Council is what that, uh, translates to.
15:12
[laughs] He thinks there's gonna be a special on that. Uh, Fezzik Friday, "Always good listen from sports betting odds." He's ready for Fezzik a little later on.
15:20
Buddhist Man, "Have you gone from one state to another that doesn't have reciprocity?" Oh, he's talking about the, uh, [tsking] oh, that's what he's...
15:26
Buddhist Man's, uh, listener on listener, uh, uh, sort of code breaking here. Buddhist is saying he thinks he might have made a BetMGM bet in one state, but
15:40
made it as someone who li- So Buddhist is saying, "As someone who lives in Pennsylvania but can only bet the draft in New Jersey, I have to log back in to the New Jersey specific flavor of the BetMGM app to see my draft bets.
15:51
They do not carry over into the Pennsylvania app." So yes, I've had this issue before when I lived in, uh, New Jersey with FanDuel.
15:58
Um, if y- depending on what state you put it in, you're, it's in that state, so you have to log back in to that state- Mm-hmm... and then get it.
16:04
But a- at the end, if I do remember correctly, at the end it still goes right into your account, but to see your current bets you have to log in to that state which you placed the bet in. Yeah.
16:13
Brian Schaefer31, "Gil, no tennis plays today? Can I tempt you with Iga to win two sets to love against Mirra Andreeva, even money?"
16:20
Uh, you could tempt me with anything like that, but I do not have any tennis plays today. I thought all the favorites were, uh, properly priced. Um, Scola, "Have you seen the Mason Miller entrance music?" I have not.
16:30
PK Mountain Steel, "I'm not worried. Miller will throw one wild pitch. I'll get him at 80 to 1, and we'll all lose. Happy Friday." [laughs] That's right.
16:37
Um, Vegas Regular, uh, not only in nine appearances has he thrown 23 strikeouts and one wa- and had one walk, he's only thrown 31 balls. That's right, and only, uh, that's right. Wow. Only 31 total
16:51
non-strike calls for Vegas Regular. I mean, for, uh, Mason Miller. Thank you, Vegas Regular. Rich PSM, "Gil, did not need to wait overnight for Wimbledon.
16:59
Arrived at 5:30 AM three years ago, got in line, met great tennis fans from around the world, got grounds ticket day four, also got into center court late for free."
17:08
Yeah, we were talking about how hard it was to get in the Masters yesterday with Crack. Also Wimbledon, boy, he's, what he's saying is you don't have to wait overnight, but 5:30 in the morning.
17:15
If you get there at 5:30 in the morning, you can get in day of. In case you ever find yourself in Wimbledon, uh- Yeah... Danny, you know. Let's go back to these NFL draft props.
17:23
Um, so we just talked a little bit about Ty Simpson. Let me just drive home why the NFL draft. Like, somebody's wrong. So I just mentioned that at DraftKings Ty Simpson's 24 and a half. His over,
17:36
over 24 and a half is minus 330. His under is plus 235. Circa lines him at 32 and a half. Circa just put out six or seven of these yesterday? Uh, no, they put out on- about 15 of them. 15 now. Yeah. Okay.
17:52
T- Circa has Ty Simpson at 32 and a half, meaning he basically has to go in the first round is what they're saying. Yeah. And the under is juiced at what? Uh, it opened at 165.
18:01
It's now you gotta lay, uh, $1.70 for under 32 and a half here at Circa. Okay.
18:04
So that's, if you, if you put the two together, that's, that sort of indicates Ty Simpson ought to go, based on the betting market, between 25 and 32. Yes. But if you believe what Felika said, right? Maybe even-
18:17
Maybe a plus money bet. Let's just start with, with a few of these. Can we start with, uh... Let's go to the other sheet. Let's start at the top here, guys, 'cause these are, these are all the DraftKings numbers.
18:26
I- is there a bet? And the answer to this is yes, there was for me on, on many of these. Uh, let's start with Casey Concepcion, the wide receiver from Texas A&M.
18:33
His line was 24 and a half, or his line is 24.5 at DraftKings. The under juiced at minus 175. Um, well, we're not showing that here on the screen. Yeah. Um, yes we are. There. There we go. Um,
18:47
as far as those five mockers, Vinnie Iyer from Sporting News, 30. Uh, Mel Kiper Jr., n- wasn't in the third, wasn't in the first round. Dane Brugler, 20th. Uh, Todd McShay, 24th. Daniel Jeremiah is the last one, 19th.
19:03
There was no play for me here. I didn't like that it was all over the place in terms of the mockers. And by the way, I'm the same way.
19:08
We're, we're going through the mocks, but I'm also the same person that said and has, and believes, I'm not sure these mock drafters are doing this stuff with any kind of intelligence this year, or if they're just filling out their journalistic assignment by their employer to fill out a certain number of mock drafts.
19:26
Yeah. I worry about it this year. Well, Gil, here's another one. You shop around. Circa got lined, uh, same thing, 24.5, but over is ju- $2. Under you're getting plus money at plus 140, so kind of a flip from DraftKings.
19:40
No bet for me either way. I don't, I don't feel confident in the Casey Concepcion thing. Caleb Downs, maybe the, maybe one of the more interesting this year, the safety from Ohio State.
19:48
Caleb Downs at DraftKings, nine and a half is the, is the, uh, draft position. Over, plus 140. The under is minus 185. Now, Vegas Refund, Luke Swain, gave this out last week over nine and a half plus money.
20:04
It moved all the way to 10 and a half. Yeah. He's mo- he, he moves the market on this, obviously not the most liquid market in the world, but he moved it. I asked him, "Should I play it over 10 and a half?" He said no.
20:14
This moved back to nine and a half. And the over I got at plus 164, was it the other day? Just a couple days ago. Over's at plus 140.
20:23
Now if you look at this, I don't know how I feel about my bet in terms of the mockers anyway, because both Todd McShay Jr. and Daniel Jeremiah have him going 10th to the Bengals. Vinnie Iyer, Mel Kiper Jr.,
20:35
Dane Brugler, they all have him going earlier than nine and a half, seven, five, and five. So I don't... I, I like that it's plus money. I would never play this at minus money on the over.
20:45
I'm, that's one of my I think I'm right but I don't know. I like the number that I bet. Carnell Tate, the wide receiver of, of Ohio State. There's no bet for me on Carnell Tate. He's all over the place.
20:53
Seven and a half is his number. Over is plus 165. The under's minus 210. Um, Iyer Jr. has him sixth. Mel Kiper, seventh. Dane Brugler, eighth. Uh, Todd McShay, seventh. Jeremiah, sixth. Uh, there's no play for me.
21:10
I have no idea where he's gonna end up. By the way, I've seen some mocks now that don't even have him as a first wideout. I think he's the first wideout, but I'm not so sure anymore.
21:19
I've seen a few too where they, they got Ty- Tyson maybe going first instead. Right. So. And I have a bet which we'll see momentarily, but that Luke recommended Tyson going second of the wide receivers.
21:28
Chris Johnson, cornerback from Ohio State. He's also like, uh, with, uh, Ty Simpson, 32.5 at DraftKings. The under heavily juiced at minus 180. Uh, only, only Brugler and Todd McShay have him going under.
21:43
I did not touch that one. Dylan Thieneman, safety, Oregon, 17.5. The over's minus 165. The under is plus 130. As you can see, five out of five have him going over. I'd bet that. Over minus 165 on Thieneman going.
21:58
The, the most popular spot is 18th to the Vikings, so there's a reason why he's lined at 17.5. And then maybe the most interesting one I think of this is Jeremiah Love. We, we walked in here.
22:08
ESPN just did an entire segment, will Jeremiah Love go in the top three? Yeah. [laughs] They like milked 15 minutes out of that. He's lined at 5.5 at DraftKings. The under's minus 165.
22:19
Of course, the most popular spots that he has been reported to go, the Titans by far the most at four. Some say the Giants at five. Then a few strays with the Commanders at seven.
22:29
I bet this under minus, uh, uh, with, with minus money at under five and a half. Um, to me that is a play. I didn't bet it at DraftKings. I bet it at a, a certain pillar of offshore.
22:39
But as you see here, it's four, four, seven, four, and four from our five mock drafters. I think he's going fourth to the Titans. I think that's happening. I'm as sure... I'm, I'm as cl- let's put it this way.
22:50
Mendoza to the Raiders is the only sure thing in this draft. Love going to the Titans might be the next closest thing I'm surest about, I think after all this.
23:00
Yeah, I, I think he's definitely going in the top five, and that's, that's gonna be either Titans at four, Giants at five, or if someone trades up and, you know, wants to go get him. Yeah. Come up and get him.
23:09
Paul Carr is sick. He's vomiting in his hotel room. He can't join us, but we have his picks next on A Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:16
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget about our friends at JustWinBetsBaby.com. That's a mouthful.
23:33
JustWinBetsBaby.com. Um, they are doing big stuff over there, mathematical models and custom AI to find value across major sports. Proven track record, futures and long shot winners, picks in English and Spanish.
23:47
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23:59
Live weekend preview every Friday from them. Uh, Gil Alexander, Danny Higgins in for Kelly Bidlin. Heyo. Heyo. [laughs] Donna. How about a Fresca? [laughs] Um, we, uh, we're supposed to have Paul Carr on- Yes...
24:14
this segment. Paul Carr, who is, um... What do we say about him? He just moves the chains. Well, coming off a sweep- Uh, he was on earlier this week. Uh, you get a little cozy little three and 0.
24:25
He's in Denver, Colorado for the women's US soccer game, and he's in his hotel, and he just, he is just hurling left and right. That's the, that's the update. Yeah, he said he's not feeling good [laughs].
24:36
Not feeling well. I'd hate to be Graff. La- la- last, last minute, uh, you know, Paul never does that, so- He must not-... he must not be feeling good. You see, what's happening is... No, I'll stop.
24:44
Okay, so he's, he still has, though, he has given us his three plays, though, nonetheless. Uh, tomorrow, this is all Premier League now, as the Premier League season is in its final stretch.
24:53
Tomorrow, he's on Brighton to beat Tottenham. Brighton at plus 140 to beat Tottenham. Tottenham fighting, fighting to not get relegated. Oh-ho.
25:04
You go out social media at all, looking at some of these Tottenham fans just losing- [laughs]... their minds in the best accent possible. So great.
25:13
Um, Sunday, Paul's on Everton Liverpool under two and a half goals, and in a big one, Man City over Arsenal. The biggest match of the Premier League season, I believe. Yeah. Would you call it that?
25:27
Uh, once again, tomorrow, Brighton plus 140 at Tottenham. Sunday, Everton Liverpool under two and a half goals. Man City to beat Arsenal. Uh, we wish Paul Carr the best and hope he feels better soon.
25:38
Hope he feels better soon. That's not fun. We got tweets beating the book. Tim Bowers: "Is a catcher's success rate in challenging balls and strikes a big enough thing that should be part of handicapping?
25:47
Also, these inadvertent challenges are funny now, but just wait till some cranky ump does it in a meaningful game." The, uh, the question about the handicapping of it, yes, I mean, there's a tracker for it, right?
25:57
So there's, they track the umps in terms of how unsuccessful players are at challenging their calls, how successful are players they're, are challenging their calls. What we're seeing is a bit of an age sort of
26:12
curve, if you will, on this kind of thing. Um, not to be ageist, but that's what we're seeing in the early going.
26:17
They're tracking the catcher's success rate in challenging, and the pitchers, who don't nearly challenge nearly as much. Uh, but there's also that as well.
26:25
Um, to answer your question, I don't know that you can really include that in a m- super meaningful way in your handicapping at this juncture.
26:35
Something might reveal itself to be just, like, you know, somebody who, who saves their challenges for the most high leverage spots.
26:43
I guess there could be something in that, but right now I wouldn't say that it's a, a massive part of someone's model. Uncle Bush: "Ty Simpson only plus 528 on Calci. Did you do that?" Uh, I did not do that.
26:55
I did not do that because when I looked to bet Ty Simpson to the Rams specifically, um, I, which I think is what you're talking about here, Uncle Bush, I got a slippage note on this. Have you seen this on Calci? No.
27:10
So yeah, so it's a whole... So I didn't bet it. I, I just, I, I just walked away. I didn't, it wasn't me.
27:15
Mike Zills, Duke 90: "Uh, Dennis Eckersley had a five walk season, so if Mason Miller's on pace for six plus walks, he's nothing special." Okay, stop with that now. Let's not get crazy. Nothing special. [laughs] Oh, God.
27:28
Here we go. Merrill Hodges made his appearance on the show today. [laughs] Caleb Williams, nothing special. Cody Betts Football, Cody Holloway: "Here's your two spring football suckapalooza parlays for this week.
27:38
One isolates the Indoor Football League, and the other throws in the dominant Dallas Renegades of the UFL." Fezzik has a, has a UFL play coming up. UFL. Got some other stuff he's got. He's got grievances.
27:50
You know what Fezzik's gonna hate? Uh, because of Paul Carr's absence, you know what I'm gonna continue talking about? The National Football League draft and how we're betting.
27:58
[laughs] Okay, 'cause I wanna give you all my picks here. Let's just go through the re- the remainder of these. There's six more of these. Um, since Paul isn't here, we weren't planning on necessarily doing this- Yeah...
28:04
but here you go. Kenyon Sadiq, 15 and a half. I already bet this to the under. Uh, our five mock drafters, again, four of which were just done a couple days ago.
28:13
15, 15, 14, 19, and 27, and keep in mind the 27 was Daniel Jeremiah's, which is the exception here. That was done mid-March. So it is pretty consensus that he goes, like, I mean, either Tampa 15, your Ravens are 14. Yep.
28:31
Um, I went under on that, but I got plus money. That's the other thing. These things move really quickly. I wouldn't bet it at minus money. You're really looking for the plus opportunities more than anything.
28:42
Monroe Freeling, I did, uh, I did not bet anything Monroe Freeling wise. Again, uh, Iyer, Kuyper, Brugler, Mc- McShay, and Jeremiah have him kind of all over the place. Um, not really.
28:58
I guess McShay is the only one that's over, but it wasn't enough for me to bet it at plus 160. This is, this one I did bet. Vega Ioane, um, 14 and a half is his number. The guard from Penn State. Over is juiced.
29:16
I bet this over, not quite with that amount of juice, a little less, but it's consensus over 14 and a half from these five guys. 17, 21, 15, 21, and 22. That was enough for me to bet the over.
29:28
Omar Cooper Jr., wide receiver from Indiana. I did not touch an Omar Cooper Jr. bet. He's at 23 and a half.
29:34
The over is the plus money, but as you can see on the screen, four out of the five are actually under in terms of those five mockers. Um, Reuben Bain Jr. is my new sexiest bet. Reuben Bain Jr. of Miami.
29:49
Remember there was one time early in football season when we were looking at who's gonna be the number one pick in the draft, and Mendoza was the favorite, but Reuben Bain Jr. was second on that list.
29:58
This is during the NFL season and obviously the college football season. He is, you know, then they, there was the report about him having the alligator arms. Yeah, that's- The, the-... a knock on him is the arm length.
30:08
Yeah. The, the raptor arms, whatever- [laughs]... whatever comparison you wanna use. Um, there's a lot of him going to the New Orleans Saints at eight. Yeah. Uh, in fact, Vinny Iyer Jr. has him eight. Mel Kiper Jr.
30:20
has him eight. Jeremiah had him seven. I went under. I went under. I took the, uh, the plus money on Reuben J- Reuben Bane Jr. for, uh, for a nice little cash. Let's go Saints. Do the right thing.
30:35
Uh, last one, Sonny Styles, 'cause we already did Ty Simpson. Sonny Styles, linebacker from Ohio State, he's at five and a half. Good God, I have no idea what's going on with Sonny Styles. Yeah. Like, he could go fifth.
30:45
We ha- we have a few of these guys having him fifth to... A couple fifth to the Giants, and then we have three of him going six to the Browns. So good luck on that. I have no idea.
30:55
And then we had three of these, and those six, those three-- oh, no, those three that are six are actually not to the Browns. Let me clarify that. All three of those guys, Kuiper, uh, Brugler, and McShay,
31:08
those three guys in their latest draft, which again was done the day before yesterday, Kuiper from ESPN, Brugler from The Athletic, McShay now at The Ringer, they all have Dallas trading up to six.
31:19
And this- I've been seeing a lot of Dallas trading up But you see, this is where I get to, I feel like this year's mocks are just reactionary.
31:27
Like, any bit of information they get, like, if there's a whiff from Dallas that they covet Sonny Styles, they're like, "Oh, I gotta put this in my next draft- Yeah... just 'cause I have to have some kind of content."
31:37
I don't know if that's true or not. Um, so I tried to do it with, uh, with consensus mocks. Here are all my [laughs] NFL draft plays now. Uh, all of a sudden Young Gills got nine.
31:49
David Bailey, second overall pick, which I had before at plus 230. This is also an interesting one, 'cause I got it at plus 230, it went to minus money, then it has creep- has crept back into mi- into plus money.
32:02
We had a...
32:03
I, I encourage everybody to go listen to the Beating the Book NFL Draft podcast with Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, Drew Dinsick, and Chris Falica, 'cause we had a little back and forth about what's gonna happen at two.
32:12
'Cause this is a draft, right? It all, it all starts at 2:00, and no one really knows what the Jets are gonna do. And Luke was talking about how
32:22
he thinks it's pretty much consensus that it's gonna be Bailey, and immediately there was pushback on that- [laughs]... on the podcast as well, 'cause it could very well be Arvelle Rees. Yeah.
32:32
Uh, I did, I did follow Luke's play, and I took Jordan Tyson second wide-out selected at minus 125. I don't know if that's gonna happen now, 'cause Carnell Tate is all over the place. So we'll see.
32:43
Jordan Tyson may or may not be two. He could be one, the wide-out from ASU. And then all the ones I just mentioned on the show here, which are seven strong, um, I went Kenyon Sadique under...
32:55
Oh, uh, Kenyon Sadique I already had under 15 and a half from the other day at plus 115. These are the f- these are the six I made yesterday in addition to Tyson.
33:02
Caleb Downs, draft position over nine and a half, plus 164. Oh, pardon me. That's one I had also. [laughs] So it's Tyson- Oh yeah, I added all, I added all your- These are all... all your bets on there Yeah.
33:10
So it's, so it's six new ones. Tyson, second wide receiver selected is new, and then these next five. Simpson, draft position under 24 and a half because it's $3, plus 300.
33:18
I just decided to, uh, take a flyer on Falica's instinct that we, uh, talked about earlier. Reuben Jane, or Reuben Bane Jr., draft position under eight and a half, plus 195 is the number that I got him at.
33:29
Uh, Vega Ioane, draft position over 14 and a half. I laid some juice there at minus 160. Jeremiah Love, draft position under five and a half. I feel as good of that, about that as anything.
33:39
Under five and a half, minus 170, willing to lay the wood on that. And Dyl- and Dylan Thoman from Oregon, draft position over 17 and a half. Laid the wood on that at minus 160. So there it is, nine deep,
33:53
six of which are brand new. For, for everybody. Fade or follow, as they say. And later on the show, Steve Fezzik tells you why the NFL draft is nonsense. And betting is nonsense. Can't wait, can't wait to hear this.
34:04
[laughs] Yeah. Looking forward to that. Looking forward to getting slapped on the wrist. Let's talk some baseball. Joe Sheehan on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:12
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:33
Back on a numbers game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Danny Higgins in for Kelly Billy. If you wanna, uh, check out Danny on Twitter, DHiggins_4. You writing on Twitter these days? No.
34:44
You tweeting anything? A little here and there. I do a lot of retweets. Oh, okay. Yeah. My big thing yesterday was, uh, the Ravens dropped their new uniforms. You like? Yeah. I like the all black ones that they have.
34:53
They got a real cool, uh, the old school bird logo on the helmet. Yeah, you- It's like kinda- See, that's the one for Washington that I don't really care for. I'm like, "Okay." Okay.
35:00
Do we have to be like every other team and have it all? Yeah. Yeah. Give me, give me that old throwback Joe Gibbs uniform. Uh, can we shout out Wyatt Tomchek once again? Yes. I feel like we, uh, should shout out Wyatt.
35:09
Wyatt, uh, who is responsible for getting the podcast up, not only shout out for him for getting the, uh, draft podcast up for me at Beating the Book, but also, uh, he was on set yesterday.
35:19
Whenever Kelly goes, it just seems like WrestleMania's in town, which makes me wonder, is Kelly actually in WrestleMania- Yeah... wearing a mask or something?
35:27
But Wyatt did a great job breaking down, uh, WrestleMania 42 yesterday. No, he did an un- unbelievable job. Yeah. Well received. Great, great job. I understood not a word, but it was well received.
35:35
[laughs] Uh, Joe Sheehan joins us now, which is awesome 'cause we can talk some baseball with him. Uh, the author of The Joe Sheehan Newsletter. You can follow him on Twitter at, uh, at, uh, Joe Sheehan.
35:47
Or no, it's Joe_Sheehan, pardon me. Forgot the underscore. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Joe? A little sunburned.
35:54
Uh, I got a, had a good day yesterday out at the stadium watching Trout and Judge hit some home runs. Yankees lost, but it was a good time nevertheless. How m- how often do you get to the ballpark?
36:02
Do you, do you go very often? Less than you might think. Um, going to the park is an opportunity cost 'cause a lot of games I'm not catching. The local parks aren't great, uh, experiences. They're very loud.
36:13
It's hard to focus, watch the game, have a, you know, conversation with your friend. Um, I will get to a bunch of games this year. I'll go to some games in LA.
36:19
We do a newsletter event at Camden Yards every year, so I'll get to games. But whereas, you know, if you're- A beat writer or something like that, you're going to 50, 60, 100 games. I'll get to 15 maybe, um, if that.
36:30
And, uh, like I say, a lot of what I do is making sure I cover the whole league, and that unfortunately does involve a lot of screens.
36:36
You know, I, d- since you bring up Trout there, just briefly, I just wanna, uh, just from your historical perspective, obviously for, for many years, uh, obviously an MV- an MVP in the past, and for many years considered the best player in baseball.
36:49
If he doesn't have the injuries that he's had, where, where does he end up in baseball history, in your, in your opinion? Well, when I look at this question, Gil, I u- I timeline a lot.
37:02
And what I mean by that is, players are always getting better, so the best players are always getting better, such that the very best player in, who ever played, has probably played in the last 25 years.
37:12
If you look at WAR, you're looking at Ruth and Bonds. I think Bonds has a much stronger case. Integrated league, more advanced league.
37:19
For a, a while in the 2010s, I said that Trout was going to be the best player who ever played the game. Again, that's not a WAR thing, that's who are you as far as talent.
37:29
The problem, you know, T- Trout is still going to end up in that inner circle. The problem now is Shohei Ohtani. I don't think you can- Yeah... uh, whether you... It's not a WAR question, right?
37:40
He has 50-something career WAR.
37:42
But when you have a player who's been one of the best hitters in baseball for a period of time, and even with limited volume, one of the best pitchers in baseball when he's been on the mound, that's just slamming down the domino.
37:53
I don't think you can have a best player ever conversation that doesn't start and end with Shohei Ohtani. I did not think this was po- possible, guys.
38:01
And every time he throws six shutout innings or hits two homers in a game, or does both of those things at once, your jaw still drops. It's impossible to argue with, right? Right.
38:13
Like, it's just, there's, there's no counterargument to what you're saying. Uh, I was fascinated- There's no- I'm sorry, go ahead. It takes the conversation away. Yes. Like, it's hard to have a conversation now.
38:21
I mean, I, I... Listen, people know how much I love Barry Lamar Bonds and think he's great. Even I am like, "It's not the same conversation. It's just a different thing." Like, we can't- Right...
38:29
it's not apples and oranges. Um, you, uh, learned of these monthly bets, you were telling us before the, uh, before the segment, from this show. March, April.
38:38
April is, is, uh, we have a couple of these, uh, markets for the first month. It's a little quirky 'cause there's some bleed over in March. Here's the March/April most wins update. Uh, the Dodgers are leading.
38:49
And once again as they feel comfortable, the Padres are right behind them, but never to take over. We'll see if they do. Padres are f- uh, Dodgers are 14 and 4, Padres 13 and 6. This is most wins.
38:59
And in these March/Aprils, it's a dead heat if they tie. Braves are alone with 12 wins, then you see all the 11s.
39:05
Uh, we also have a similar April category, by the way, which the Padres are sort of, kind of dominating now at 12 and 2. The Padres are just killing it. Um, but you have a bet in March/April on who, sir?
39:18
Uh, the Rays at 45 to 1. And I want people to ignore that second category. We're gonna ignore run differential here- [laughs]... 'cause that just doesn't count. Yes, that's right.
39:27
Um, the Rays, you know, I looked at their schedule. Uh, they had the Twins twice. Twins have been better than we expected. Cardinals, White Sox, Pirates. Coming out of the gate, I thought they could bank some wins.
39:37
They really haven't done that. They lost a number of close games early. The offense has been what w- I expected. Remember, I thought this was an 86 win team. I thought this was a playoff team.
39:44
And I think coming into April, you really wanna bet your preseason priors, right? If you're ahead of the market on a team, that's the team you wanna be on here. So that's who I was on at 45 to 1.
39:54
Again, it's a thing where the Dodgers could bury the market, and that's what we've seen so far. They take them out and you're only two games behind the Padres, but that's the risk you take in this market.
40:02
Uh, the Rays, like I said, the offense has been very good. Aronda's hit, Cavanero's hit. Chandler Simpson's been one of the great April stories.
40:09
But the Rays' bullpen is third worst in baseball by Fangraph numbers, and you just couldn't have seen that coming. That's not what this team does. Griffin Jax is terrible.
40:17
Some of the middle relievers they've used out of the bullpen, Ian Seymour being most notable, has been, have been terrible. They've lost games late that you wouldn't have expected them to lose.
40:25
So if, if and when I lose this bet, it's gonna be because I misread their bullpen. Uh, by the way, imagine how I feel about my Reds in March/April- Ooh... who have a minus 13 run differential.
40:35
Lost a terrible game to the Giants yesterday, three to nothing, with, uh, Chase Burns on the hill. That was brutal. But the Rays right now sitting alone in fourth place.
40:43
Well, I won't say f- alone, because it is a dead heat, but they, they do have the fewest losses of those 11 win teams. So we'll see where the Rays end up here March/April.
40:51
Now, this may or may, the Rays may or may not be the answer to my next question, which is really from a betting standpoint as we sit here a 10th, roughly a 10th of the way into the season.
41:01
Who's the team, maybe it is the Rays, maybe it's not, who's the, who's the club that most people are not thinking about, either American League or National League, that you legitimately feel they are really not only a team to keep an eye on, but they're way better than people think they are?
41:17
Is it the Rays or is that just a March/April thing? Well, again, a lot of this is still thinking about preseason priors, and I had the Rays at 86 in a market that had them, I wanna say, at 78, 79 to start the year.
41:28
So, you know, I think they were underrated to start the year. I, I think a lot of people are gonna look at the Padres. I had the Padres as a 500 team. They're off to a 13 and 6 start.
41:35
I haven't moved my priors on them, but I do think that, uh, y- you have to say, hey, look, maybe if they're really going to go 51 and 1 or whatever when they have a lead after the seventh, um, they're gonna be the team to beat.
41:48
I would say that a lot of the teams that have played poorly in April, that are getting attention for playing poorly in April, are going to be underrated going forward. I'm thinking here of the Mets.
41:58
I'm thinking here of the Red Sox. The Mets offense has been poor. Uh, the starting pitching hasn't been what they wanted. Juan Soto's missed a lot of the month. That's certainly hurt them.
42:06
Uh, the veterans that they signed or traded for in the off-season haven't worked out for them. The Red Sox, their young hitters haven't gelled yet.
42:12
I think we can overreact to the 7 and 12, 7-11 starts and forget that, Gil, over 162 games, pretty much every team is going to lose 12 out of 19 or 11 out of 18 at some point We underrate how much internal variance there is for even good baseball teams over the course of a season.
42:30
And I've been, you know, saying this for years. Let the season breathe.
42:33
So I think the underrated teams going forward are going to be these high profile teams with great expectations who now have their fans rending their garments. Can the a- I'll feed you one.
42:43
Can the Athletics make the playoffs, Joe? I don't see it with this, their pitching staff. They do have a lot of young pitching coming through.
42:51
If they can get that to the majors by August, if they're in a race, that makes them interesting. But right now, I just don't think they're gonna keep enough runs off the board.
42:59
I think they're gonna end up losing one of these six, uh, nine, six games like they did yesterday to the Rangers. Okay. I know you're not a voter. I know you don't have a vote.
43:06
Um, we talked a little bit about this off air, but it's, it's sort of the great debate around here. If you had one, and I just want to give you a scenario.
43:14
So Mason Miller just lights out at this point this year, um, with a 0.21 whip, um, has thrown 31 total balls. One earn, uh, one hit al- what is it?
43:26
Uh, no earned runs, one hit, and one walk allowed on the season for Mason Miller. It's just, it's insane what he's doing.
43:34
If he has a season, Joe, where he gives up, I don't know, three earned runs, let's call it three earned runs, 23 Ks, by the way, this year already, too,
43:44
and just maybe, I don't know, three earned runs, uh, two handfuls of hits, and two handfuls of walks, can he be the Cy Young winner despite the fact that he doesn't fit all the Tom Tango formula for this?
43:57
Yeah, I, I, I'll go with two reasons for this. One is there's, uh, uh, it, it, the voting is done by humans, and while the votes have tended to hew more closely to WAR in recent years, that's not a perfect thing.
44:12
Pitchers, starting pitchers only go 170, 180 innings now, maybe 190. So a reliever who gives you 70 great innings is closer to that value. But I think the real thing is the spectacular nature of it, right? Yes.
44:23
If he does something unique, if he does something that gets your attention, and you've got a normal list of NL Cy Young candidates, you know, Paul Skeens puts up a 2.4 ERA and wins 12 games, leads the league in strikeouts, something like that.
44:36
If no starter does that, I do think there's going to be a groundswell to vote for the story.
44:42
Sabermetrically, maybe you couldn't justify it, but there is a case where if you have a historic season, maybe that's what the voting should reflect.
44:50
I'm not saying I would vote that way, but I do think it's a legitimate argument. This is precisely how I feel about it. I just think that the story could override everything else
45:00
if this happens, because it is a spectacular one to watch. Uh, Joe, always a pleasure. Thank you so much. Thanks, Gil. Enjoy the weekend. You too. Joe Sheehan, everybody.
45:09
Chris Felica on the other side, all his bets next.
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