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Apr 17, 2026
A Numbers Game | April 17, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 17, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
45:15
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Good Friday morning and good second hour Friday morning to you. Gil Alexander, Danny Higgins on a Numbers Game, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158.
0:20
On the show still to come, Chris Fallica standing by here momentarily. Ben Wilson joins us to talk college baseball, among other things, tennis. Does anybody have an NBA pick tonight, for God sakes?
0:31
Are they playing games? I know we had, like, 35 of them yesterday and the day before. I think Ben might have a little thing going on. Ben might have a little talk. Yeah, okay. Ben,
0:39
the, uh, the most- he will be the most famous person to ever come out of VSiN in the non-Bonatoni category. Sorta like the without Scheffler market. Okay. You know? Yeah.
0:48
So we'll talk to Ben as well, and then, uh, Steve Fezzik, who is live texting the show- [laughs]... and is just, uh, he didn't, he didn't like what Joe had to say about something. He'll go after Joe on something.
0:59
I'll defend Joe. It'll be a whole thing. Yeah. Looking forward to that. I'll protect you, Joe. I'm not scared of no Steve Fezzik. We'll do that. Uh, now I have, uh, way more NFL draft bets than I wanted to- [laughs]...
1:12
uh, as of 24 hours ago. Part of the reason is because this gentleman I... And he, he was just saying off air, "I've seen," he's like, "I've seen way too much of Gil."
1:19
Um, he was kind enough to not only be on the show earlier, but, uh, on the podcast yesterday, which I did with Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, Drew Dinsick, the Beating the Book NFL Draft Preview pod.
1:28
Chris Fallica, The Bear, joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Good morning once again, sir. Good, good morning. Good morning, my man. Yeah, that, that was fun yesterday. That wa- It's always good to get
1:41
different opinions- Yes... especially on, on the draft from people who have, uh, seen certain mocks, seen certain things that you may have, may not have.
1:49
A- and odds are I'll be right about something, Luke will be right about something, and Drew will be right about something that we all maybe disagree with the other person about.
1:57
But anytime you can get a collection of opinions and, and bets and just see when people got in on certain bets and how the market has moved now and those numbers [laughs] are no longer available, it, it seems to be, uh, that, uh,
2:11
some good bets were made by people. Yes. And, uh, I was gonna, I was gonna save those, but since you, since we were there- Yeah... let's talk about a couple of them. One of them I brought- Mm-hmm...
2:19
up earlier, actually played some audio from you. You've, you know, you make a pretty interesting case, and a very logical one, that Ty Simpson, you know, for all... He's lined mostly at 24 and a half.
2:29
Here at Circuit it's 32 and a half, and they juiced the under as opposed to juicing the over on the 32. You make a very compelling case of this dude isn't coming out if he doesn't know something, right?
2:39
There's a lot of NIL money that he coulda had. I, I wouldn't think so. A- and there are people who will spin it as to, oh, he just wanted to go now and is the Alabama quarterback. He, he started one year at Alabama.
2:53
It, it wasn't like they had a, had an unbelievable year, uh, this year either.
2:58
But I, I just think the money that he could have made, whether it was Miami, whether it was Oregon, whether it was wh- whomever, L.A., wh- whomever in, in, in, in college football.
3:09
To, to bypass that seems to lead me to believe that there were a bunch of first-round grades. And I don't wanna necessarily say there's certainly a promise from a team or whatever.
3:21
I, I'm just, I was just trying to do a little bit of reasonable deduction. Remember a few years back, none of us had Michael Penix Jr. going to the Falcons. That's correct. It was a- Yeah...
3:31
either Steelers or Raiders, and it was the Falcons that came out of nowhere a- and took Penix a much higher than people thought he would have gone.
3:40
A- and now you look at a team like, and I said the Rams, because you've got Matthew Stafford, who may have one year left, two years left at most probably. You can put him in the McVay offense. He can learn.
3:51
He can sit behind, no pressure at all to play this year, and you just kind of have a s- potentially a seamless heir apparent to keep that offense going.
4:01
Uh, I, I think he fits a lot of things that the, that the Rams could work with. A- and there are some good n- I saw, it was funny that I saw the, the Kalchi price drop from dramatically. I, I think we- Yes...
4:12
when we were on the air yesterday it was, like, 14 cents or 13 cents, and it got all [laughs] the way up to, like, mid-40s. So i- in response to your, uh, your tweet earlier, did we do that? Yeah- Did we do that?
4:23
I think, uh- Yeah... I think we did do that. Maybe not you and I specifically, but I think the, the listeners did. So yeah, I still think that, that Ty Simpson to be drafted by the Rams is worth a play.
4:33
Uh, and that, uh, that will fetch you, and this is, again, this is a moving target, right now about 6/1, uh, there on Prediction Markets- Mm-hmm...
4:41
or wherever else you can find it, uh, Ty Simpson be selected specifically by the Rams.
4:44
The other discussion, and maybe any NFL draft betting discussion or any, uh, NFL draft discussion for that matter, really begins at two, and should begin with a discussion after Fernando Mendoza goes inevitably to the Raiders.
4:57
Your Jets are sitting there at two. Arval Willis was a massive favorite for much of this run-up, and then David Bailey, uh, became a slight favorite. Now we're, we're back to Reese, it looks like.
5:09
And we had a good-spirited discussion about the number two pick yesterday on the pod as well. Where do you stand on this? I think it's going to be Reese. I, I think
5:21
Bailey all of a sudden, oh, the Jets are gonna take Bailey. You know when that happened?
5:24
It happened when, like, the Cardinals were reported to, uh, be looking maybe to trade back at, from three if David Bailey was available at three and teams wanted to come up and, and take the pass rusher from Texas Tech.
5:36
Then all of a sudden it was, "Oh, the, the Jets are now gonna take David Bailey." I, I think in this mock draft industry, I, I think there are instances where
5:47
kinda like I scratch your back, you scratch mine, and maybe there's a little bit of, I don't wanna say collusion.
5:53
But maybe some favors are done and you, you throw David Bailey to the Jets, and you don't necessarily believe it.
6:00
I think that could be a situation here where I think the Jets are probably trying to drum up interest In that second pick to see if someone wants to come up and move to two, that way the Jets could acquire some more picks.
6:11
But I, I do think if the Jets stay at two, I took Bailey. I, I took Reese this morning, um, at plus money. Uh, he's plus 105. I saw Circa put that up, over under two and a half. I, I think under two and a half.
6:22
I, I think that Reese is gonna be the pick. I, I think he's kind of like a mini Micah Parsons, isn't he? Um, UT, you would know better than me. Um, how mini is the question. Say pretty mini, right? Micah's Micah. Yeah.
6:34
That's a different story. Um- You can do, you can do so much with him, and Aaron Glenn's a, a defensive guy and, and I think if,
6:42
if, if the front office gives a player like Reese to, to be able to move around and do some of that, I think that will help the Jets, who...
6:48
That, that's the other thing that my Rams thought on, uh, Ty Simpson is kind of based on. I don't think, I don't think the Jets are really interested in a quarterback this year.
6:58
I think the Jets' goal is to pick as high as you can next year, and then have your decision between Arch Manning, Dante Moore,
7:09
Julian Sayin, Lenox Sellers, Darien Mensch, like, I mean, so all those guys that are coming out.
7:15
You want- the goal for this year is to keep and acquire as much draft capital for 2027 to put yourself in a position to grab one of those guys.
7:24
Because if Arch, if Arch Manning comes out this year, he's the number one pick by far, and, a- and I think you really wanna be in a position next year to be able to k- kind of make a move for a franchise quarterback.
7:34
You, yeah, you mentioned that on the show yesterday. You, are, you think Arch Manning comes out, he's the number one pick by far, even after Mendoza's- Yeah... season, he's the number one- Yes... pick by far. I do. I do.
7:44
I, I, I absolutely do. I think the...
7:48
Yeah, I think if you look at, and Dan Orlovsky has kind of taken some grief on this, and it's almost like disagreeing or having a contrarian-type opinion and going back and watching the tape on Mendoza and coming out and saying, like, their offense is a majority pre-snap determined and it's not gonna translate to the NFL.
8:10
Sure, he's an articulate guy, he's an intelligent guy. You would think that he can go on and make the leap, but I, I think, I think the things that Arch can do are better than the... I, I...
8:23
Before the year, no one was talking about Fernando Mendoza- No... being- Except for Joe P-... this type of player... except for Joe Pena And I think- That's the only person... I think you need to...
8:30
Yeah, I, I think you need to be a little, just take a step back a little bit and be like, "Okay, what we saw this year, is this real, or was this just kind of like a magical season?"
8:39
Because I, I think Dan's kind of getting killed a little bit because it's like you, you're kind of dumping on the unbelievable story that was Indiana this year and him winning the Heisman, going undefeated, and winning the national championship.
8:50
Whereas you'd be, you're, you're a little clouded by that and maybe not wanting to realize and recognize that there might be some hesitation, and there might be a little bit of worry and concern this guy might not be the, the, the quarterback that you think you're taking at number one.
9:05
Yeah. Um, who's the guy that you have no idea? Like, of all the, like, guys that are mocked in the top 10-ish, who's the guy that you have the l- you have the least idea about? Is it Tate at this point? Who is it?
9:18
No, I think it's Sonny Stiles, because I, I think... I love Stiles. I, I think he's gonna be a fantastic pro, but there are, uh... In talking to some of the
9:28
draft analysts and former GMs that are in the industry right now, I, I was like, "Is there a case that the Jets could potentially take Stiles at two?"
9:36
And they're like, "Ah, it's really high to take an off-the-ball linebacker at two." But I think everyone's in agreement that Stiles is a great player, and does he land at five?
9:46
Does he land at s- could, could he go, could he fall a little bit? I think, I think he's the guy that, uh, if he goes five, you wouldn't be surprised.
9:53
If he falls to like eight, nine, 10 or so, you probably wouldn't be surprised either. Okay. Uh, we were alluding to, uh, Paul Car, our buddy. He's sick, but he did give us, uh, his picks. Mm-hmm.
10:04
This Arsenal-Man City match this weekend, how big globally is this? Obviously, it's the biggest game in the Prem, but like give a, give me an example of what this would be in the NFL, an equivalent.
10:16
Oh, uh, I- I'll use, I'll use, uh, Major League Baseball for an example- Okay... just 'cause the season's a little bit longer. Like say the Yankees and the Red Sox, and say the Yankees or Red Sox have about a
10:28
six-game lead on September 1st, and they blow it, and the other team comes back and wins the division. Like th- this is kind of what it is.
10:36
Arsenal has been the team in first place all year long, and now because of the loss to Bournemouth last week, you've had, you have Man City who went to Chelsea and won. The, the lead is now only six points.
10:48
If Man City were to win on Sunday, the lead would only be three points, and Man City has a game in hand against Burnley, who's going to be... Who's in the relegation zone. They're going down next year.
11:00
In theory, Man City will win that game. So if Man City were to win on Sunday, there's a, an excellent chance that these two teams are gonna be tied on Wednesday after Man City beats Burnley- Wow...
11:11
and we're ultimately gonna be counting on like goal differential potentially to, to, to sort this thing out w- if neither team drops another game, uh, the en- the entire way.
11:20
You want to get into the handicap now, or you want to save it until after the break? No, let's save it. Let's save it for after the break. We'll get your Arsenal- Yeah, absolutely... Man City play.
11:27
Uh, horse races for, uh, tomorrow, I believe it is. Yes? Tomorrow or today? Tomorrow or today? Today. Today. Today. Today. We have horse races for today. You guilted me into a couple of picks for today. I was listening.
11:36
[laughs] I did. I guilted you on air. You're giving us some horse racing plays for today. Eh, I stand by that. I'm very proud of myself. And, uh, derby thoughts as we are eight days away from the Run for the Roses.
11:48
Let's do it. More with Chris Velek on a Numbers Game at VSiN, VSiN Sports Betting Network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
11:56
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12:07
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12:25
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. In the playoffs, every game matters, and so does every bet.
12:34
VSiN Pro gives you daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop tools and matchup analysis, plus 24/7 video and show replays on the VSiN Watch app, so you're ready before the postseason begins.
12:44
Get ahead of the action now. Start today for just $9.99, or save 50% with an annual subscription. Visit vsin.com/subscribe. That's vsin.com/subscribe. We get tweets. Beat of the Book. Y'all are the best.
12:56
Best listeners in the game, seriously. JoeC714 said, "I haven't tweeted in a while. Took on another challenge. Barbecue restaurant. Love the show. Anytime VSiN in Newport Beach, meal's on me." Oh, Danny. Oh.
13:10
Well, this'll make... Live on the road. Sounds good. Numbers game, Newport Beach, California. We got ribs. Look at that thing. Chance Copperpot: "The Calci DraftKings thing with Ty Simpson is very interesting.
13:20
You can get Ty to go to the Rams on Calci for plus 239, or you can find Rams to take a quarterback with their first pick for 12 to one at DraftKings." Yeah, that was the thing. When I got to Calci, the, the number on
13:33
Ty to go straight to the Rams was not good at all. Joe Defan: "I completely agree with Paul Carr. Hope he feels better. Man City money line, Nottingham Forest, Burley under two and a half goals, Tottenham draw, no bet."
13:43
Oh, okay. That's different. Uh, Primetime Leon Sanders, yo. Hey, man. "I says I do declare shenanigans coming from Fizik.
13:52
Everyone knows next Thursday night he'll be glued to [laughs] NFL draft coverage with Masters app opened on his phone watching highlights from last week. I make the line even, even money." [coughs] Pardon me.
14:03
We've done all we can do. Thank you, Primetime Leon Sanders. [laughs] Uh, Lance S points out, Lance Sha- uh, Lance Jones IQ says, uh, "Wind is blowing out at Wrigley. Two home run props can hit on these days.
14:12
Nico Hoerner red-hot. Ladder s- uh, ladder his total bases. [clears throat] One home run is plus 950. Two homers 175 to one on FanDuel, but most guys are 40 to one or higher for two home runs. Roll those dice."
14:23
All right, Lance. Uh, Brian Schaefer 31: "I've heard everybody on the Hornets tonight. Not one person I've heard said they like the Magic, just like the Warriors the other day.
14:32
Might have to take the Magic at home with the points." Yeah, but there's... You, you know this, Brian. There's a big difference.
14:37
The reason I went, went on with Femi and, uh, Will the other day and, and mentioned that, I was like, "Hey, everybody," including Carl Sack, right, "is on the Clippers," and I just refuse to partake.
14:48
I actually grabbed the Warriors with the number
14:50
because it's the Warriors, man, and I, I think I'm going to be on the Warriors again tonight against the Suns, taking the points because it's Steph and it's Draymond and it's those veterans.
15:01
The Magic looked terrible, so even the, like, even the, the Hornets hardos, man, if they don't win that one tonight, I, I shall have sympathy for them.
15:10
Uh, Matt Warrior 13: "Bear stole my thunder, but I believe the Rams are the team. Also possibly a big draft day trade by them." Um, and Mr. Masterlocke: "Oh, Kentucky Derby in two weeks. What did I say?
15:20
Oh, yeah, two weeks." Two weeks. "It's April 17, for God's sakes." First, first Saturday in May. My bad. Yeah, May 2nd. The, uh, I'm acting like the draft is tonight, and then the Derby's right after.
15:28
[laughs] Then the Derby. The draft is in six days, and then it's the Derby. Pardon me. What did I say? Yeah. I, uh- Yeah. Yeah, okay. Uh, the week after. Chris Fallica, speaking of that, joins us.
15:37
We have to, uh, get to the business of Arsenal and Man City first with Chris Fallica, The Bear, uh, who you can follow on Twitter at Chris Fallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A.
15:45
He's got the Bear Bets Podcast over there, multiple sports. When's the next one, first of all, Chris? Next Bear Bets pod? Uh, Tuesday. We're, we're, we will have a draft analyst on.
15:55
I do not know who it's going to be right now. We're trying to sort, sort that out, but yeah. TBD. We'll have, uh [laughs]... Yeah. Okay.
16:02
Yeah, T-T-TBD, but we'll do, we'll, uh, we'll have one out on Tuesday, Tuesday night. So before we get to the horse races, what's your Man City-Arsenal play? I put under two and a half.
16:10
Uh, if you've looked at Arsenal's form lately, I mean, they played an absolute dog garbage match the other day in Champions League against Sporting. Uh, Arsenal really just need to draw this match.
16:24
If they get a point here, they will be in really good shape to avoid that three, six, zero kinda denomination.
16:34
If they can get the lead to, to seven, which would in reality would be four, and, and they would have to stumble again, uh, they'd be in a much better position.
16:43
If m- if, if Arteta, uh, the Arsenal manager, could put five midfielders and five, uh, fullbacks, defenders on the, on the pitch with no attacking players, that's probably what he would do, uh, on, on Sunday afternoon.
16:56
They really just need a draw. Uh, I don't even think they're gonna try and win. I think they're gonna bunker down and just try and absorb pressure, and if they get a counter atch- a counter chance, fine.
17:07
Under two and a half feels like a very good bet. Just, it feels like i- if Arsenal could g- could walk out of here nil-nil or one-one, they would take that in a heartbeat. Okay. There it is.
17:19
Great analogy by you, too, with the, uh, the Red Sox-Yankees sort of come from behind thing, very end of the season.
17:25
Again, Man City, as Chris said, six points behind Arsenal, atop the table, but Man City has one game in hand, and of course, they're head-to-head this weekend, so they could be tied by Wednesday. Uh, okay.
17:35
Horse racing today. Let's give us some winners, sir. What do you got? Yeah. You guilted me into a couple, a couple of picks before. Thank you. We'll go to Keeneland, the fourth race.
17:44
Um, just a, a b- basic maiden race it, uh, at Keeneland. Uh, I want the number seven horse, Wedamu, uh, was five to two in her debut at Gulfstream, uh, last month in the good part of the Gulfstream meet.
17:59
Todd Pletcher horse. Uh, did not run very well at all. Now cuts back to seven furlongs. Bobby and Pratt up six to one morning line. Uh, Todd Pletcher a second time out having a really good, uh, Keeneland meet.
18:13
I certainly like this horse, uh, much better than I do the...
18:17
Much like I talked about last week in the, um, in the Lexington where I thought the favorite was a total bet against and a bad favorite, and now the horse that I liked unfortunately got scratched, and the favorite I think is still running.
18:27
The favorite on the rail here, Mighty Nora, uh, the, the one horse, I think this horse is a, a very, very, very vulnerable-... uh, favorite.
18:35
So if you don't like my horse, Wheatamu, the seven, uh, certainly try and find an option for you, uh, to, to beat that horse. And then the other, uh, the other, uh, race I got for you today is at Aqueduct.
18:48
Uh, the seventh race, it is the Plenty of Grace Stakes. Uh, I went with the number three horse, Relaxxx, uh, with two Xs. Uh, Miguel Clement is off to a good start at Aqueduct.
18:59
Uh, this is a horse he's had, uh, come in from Europe. He's had the horse a lit- a little while, so they've kind of been, uh, pointing a little bit to this. Um, couple of Chad Browns in here.
19:10
Uh, another, another, a Mark Casse in here who's favorite as well.
19:14
But, but I, I think Clement does really well with these first time horses in North America, these European imports that come in, and he throws them into States races.
19:23
So I, I think the number three horse, Relaxxx, at, uh, 5 to 1 on the morning line is a, is a play for me as well. All right, Keeneland today. Number seven, uh, Keeneland race number four, number seven horse, Wheatamu.
19:35
Yes. That's Wheat, W-H-E-A-T-A-mu, A-M-O-O, at 6 to 1. And then at Aqueduct, uh, race number seven, the number three horse, as Chris points out, Relaxxx with two Xs. Not with one X, Danny, nor with three Xs.
19:49
Not triple X either. I was gonna say, definitely not three X- No... even though with Fezzik coming up next hour, we could really need to put the, the, the three X warning label on that- [laughs] That's right...
19:56
that final hour with Joe. Potty mouth that he is. Uh, okay, now to the Derby, which I was correctly, uh, I was cor- correctly corrected, if you will, that it is not in eight days, it's 15 days.
20:06
Draft in six days, Derby in 15, the Run for the Roses. The Der- the Derby is the first Saturday in May every year, Bill- That's right... just in case you needed to know that. I know. I know.
20:14
I got excited 'cause it was May 2nd, right? It's early this year. Yes. So I'm thinking, "Oh my God." Very early. I felt like yesterday was a Friday. I have no idea where I am at any moment. Uh- Me too.
20:23
Didn't you feel that way yesterday? It was a Fri- I think it- It, it did. I, I, I w- Yep... I guess it m- maybe because it was so nice here in the, in the northeast finally. That's what it was here.
20:30
They made some nice steaks for dinner, and it was warm, and, a- a- and you're like, "Ah, just relaxing for the m- " And then I'm like, "Oh, wow. It's, it's Thursday." It's Thursday.
20:38
I had to remind myself a couple times- Think we're almost done... about that yesterday. I think it is a we- I think it is weather related. Also with the podcast, too, felt like we were going to the weekend.
20:45
Anyway, we get to the Derby. We've heard, we've heard a bunch of stuff from you and Drew. You and Drew do a great job with this.
20:52
But as the time has gone on, this is shifting a little bit, at least it is from my listening perspective. Where are you now with this? I, I have a future on Renegade at 15 to 1.
21:04
And you hear things, and you have connections, and Drew and I both. And you just hear rumblings about Renegade not coming out of the Arkansas Derby in great, in, in a great, in a great place.
21:17
Uh, whether he was lame, just sore, didn't, didn't put weight back. Who, who knows? Workouts, y- interpretation of your workout. It's good, it's bad. Uh, is there something wrong with the hind? Whatever.
21:28
But y- you hear these rumblings, and it just leads me to wanna look somewhere else right now. And I know at, uh, the Superbook, Commandment was 6 to 1. And you can get a fixed price on Commandment at 6 to 1. Um,
21:43
that might be worth a play because if for some reason these rumors about Renegade are true, uh, Commandment's price is gonna go down in the paramutual pool come, come Derby day.
21:56
So I think if you can lock in Commandment at 6 to 1 right now, that's probably something worth doing.
22:02
Horse won the Fountain of Youth, well, won the Mucho Macho Man, won the Fountain of Youth, won the Florida Derby, swept all the, the big three, uh, Florida Derby prep races.
22:10
He's got a nice off-the-pace, uh, running style. And, and for Brad Cox,
22:15
and, and the connections here, I, I think this, th- we'll talk about this more when you, me, Fornatale, Somich, whoever else we have on for the, for the Derby preview.
22:25
Commandment hitting the board is probably gonna be the way I strategize my Derby bets, where I'll play Commandment for second and third with other horses in the middle.
22:35
But just my concerns about Renegade, if he unfortunately scratches or he, the rumors about him maybe not being great, Commandment is gonna be a very logical backup horse.
22:44
And that 6 to 1 will be closer to, to 3 to 1, 7 to 2. Okay. So lock in 6 to 1 right now if you can. All right. You're still bullish on Chief Walabie as well? Are you? I am. I am. Okay.
22:55
You know, that's, that's the other horse that I like. But I think you are gonna be able to get a good price on Chief Walabie in the Derby.
23:01
There are a lot of people who are kinda like questioning why Bill Mott is adding blinkers to this horse. If Bill Mott is deciding to add blinkers to Chief Walabie, there's a reason why. Oh. And I will support- Okay...
23:11
Bill Mott to the death. That's for sure. Chris Fallica, everybody. Thank you, Chris. Appreciate it. Ben Wilson. You got it. Ben Wilson, tennis, college baseball, more next.
23:19
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Danny Higgins.
23:37
Danny. Gil. In for, uh, in for Kelly Bidlin. Um, Michael Simmer, "Are the eight days for the Run for the Roses in metric? Seems like 15." Yeah, no, I've got corrected on that.
23:47
Del Mindthegap Radio, "Pavlovian is my Derby pick, 40 to 1 likely. This horse has been tested in two preps, Sunland and Louisiana Derby." Wow. Okay. Tronsky, "Hey Gil, your girl Iga got broken first game out.
24:01
This match with Andrevan Stuttgart should hopefully be a good battle. Need to see how her new coach is working out. Thank you, and think the Bears pointing out, uh, for being one of the few that covers tennis."
24:12
Thank you, and think this bear is... I don't know. I think there's a, there's a typo in there. But yes, you know, speaking of tennis and, and Iga slander, which I believe that tweet was, uh- [laughs]...
24:23
was flirting with, Ben Wilson joins us now from his lair somewhere here in the desert of Las Vegas, Nevada. He joins us now courtesy of Aggressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow Ben on Twitter.
24:32
This is always, uh, troubling. He's got a lot of, uh He's got a lot of underscores on this. Sorry. It's, it's Ben_Wilson_1. That's the number one.
24:41
And again, in the without Bonatoni market, he will be the most famous person in the history of VSiN. How you doing, Ben? I'm great. Uh, Eaga minus 141 live, uh, down in early break.
24:53
I mean, you get a, you get a, you get a, you get a discount. Shh. Just saying. Gart, have you been fa- First of all, let me just, there's a couple things we have to talk about before we g- launch in anything.
25:01
Danny Higgins is your tenant at your place here in Las Vegas. Is that correct? We heard a s- Uh, yes. I'm, I'm really trying hard to make this.
25:10
I'm trying to become the Ehrlich Bachman of, uh, of Southwest Las Vegas and turn this into the VSiN incubator. Uh, but Danny has been a absolute model, uh, model tenant, done a great job.
25:21
He, he even has little ravens', uh, like, a little ravens' night lamp thing in the- Oh... in the kitchen counter. It's, uh- How cute... it's just great stuff.
25:28
Had, had to add that 'cause we, uh, you know, in the living room we got, Ben's got his Packers and his Brewers, so I had to bring a little, you know, little purple into the- Yeah... the house. No, it's great.
25:36
Ben, I wanna cut to the chase. You, uh, you appear to me, the word on the street is you're an aggressive landlord, that you called Danny at one point, uh, to see if he was there, if you could come. He di- he did not.
25:46
He was asleep. He did not answer the phone. You decided you would walk in anyway and barge in on him. Do you know that he's a former police officer and that could have ended ugly? You can't do that as a landlord.
25:55
I'm, I'm very aware, yes. Uh, I, uh, Da- Danny runs a tight ship over there, and that is by design. We, we encourage that, uh, that sort of thing. So, no, I, uh, I, I am honored to, uh- Okay...
26:05
to have Danny wa- looking, looking watch over the place. Yes. Aggressive landlording from Ben Wilson. Aggressive. Yes. All right. So now you're in town why?
26:15
Uh, NLL lacrosse for me tomorrow night, uh, ESPN+, TSN+ for our, uh, our Canadian friends. It's actually, it's a big weekend. It's the end, uh, season finale here.
26:25
So I have San Diego and Las Vegas tomorrow, and those two are trying to battle it out for the final, uh, couple playoff spots here in the, uh, in the National Lacrosse League, where eight- Wow... of the 14 teams get in.
26:37
Is it ever gonna g- Is it your opinion, because for those of us who grew up in the Mid-Atlantic region of the country, there was always a thought that one day lacrosse is just gonna be massive.
26:47
How can the rest of the world not understand what we here in the Mid-Atlantic, talking Johns Hopkins, Maryland- Uh-huh... North Carolina country, how, how we know something that the rest of the world doesn't?
26:57
Do you believe that it will ever grow to a point beyond, I don't know, I mean, obviously beyond where it is now, but do you think it ever gets huge?
27:08
So I was having this conversation actually with one of, uh, one of my producers for a different network. His name's Fred Cambria, won a national title in the '70s for Syracuse as playing lacrosse.
27:17
And, uh, I, we were, I was talking, I was telling him about doing the NLL stuff and how the league is set up, and I'm like, "Yeah, you know, they're really, they're really bullish try- you know, growing the game, all these new markets," and he just laughed.
27:27
He's like, "Buddy, they've, they've been saying that for 50 years." So I, I kind of defer to the people who have been around the game.
27:33
Look, there's a lot of money involved, so Joe Tsai owns the, uh, the Las Vegas and San Diego teams. He's a big lacrosse guy, also owns the, as many know, the Brooklyn Nets.
27:42
There's been a big infusion of cash, but at the same time, I mean, 95-plus percent of the players in box lacrosse particularly, which is what the National Lacrosse League is, unlike the, uh, Premier Lacrosse League, which is all outdoor, box lacrosse is almost entirely Canadian.
27:58
So the viewership is mostly Canadian. A lot of the teams are Canadian. You've got a ton of money, though, into markets like, uh, Georgia and San Diego and Las Vegas.
28:08
But it, it still kind of seems to me, when you talk to people who've been around for a while, and when you hear that kind of refrain of, "Buddy, they've been trying to grow," they've been saying- Yeah...
28:16
the same thing for 50 years. Yep. It makes me a little pessimistic. I mean, I love covering the sport. It's really fun to watch as a, just as, like, an in-person, you know, viewing vehicle.
28:25
But, uh, I don't know if maybe the, there's a, there's a cap to the amount of growth that they can potentially have just because of the historical precedent and all that. Gotcha. Okay.
28:34
Ben, Ben operates in a, in a world of what we in the betting world call other sports, right? Yes. So it's lacrosse. What were you just doing a spot for? Yeah. Moto, what was that, what you were just doing?
28:43
Yeah, so this is actually my, my second year I've been a host of a, we do a, uh, a weekly betting show for MotoAmerica, which is the, the, the kind of top level professional motorcycle classification in the US, and they actually just signed a, they signed a betting deal last year.
28:59
They're now on, you can bet them on, uh, DraftKings, FanDuel, a lot of the major sports books.
29:03
And it just, it represents kind of a fascinating place where we're at in the industry where you have a lot of these kind of niche sports who are certainly leaning into the growing legalization of betting because they obviously want to grow their market share, their audience reach, and all that.
29:17
Uh, but what's, what's fascinating to me is that, that what's, what's happening is it's not like DraftKings that's trading and book, you know, t- looking at the odds and breaking down time sheets for MotoAmerica.
29:29
It's sort of a third-party, uh, analytics site that is, however they're doing it, they're coming up with the odds. A lot of times those odds are as, as, and we'll see this as we get into the year.
29:39
The season's just starting right now, but a lot of times those odds are just completely off because, you know, it's like, it's a very small sport.
29:46
It's hard to follow a lot of the upgrades and the changes and all the things that go on throughout a season, and yet you can bet on this stuff.
29:54
The issue is it, it seems like from the people I've talked to, it seems to be a great way to get yourself, uh, extremely limited or your account banned because- [laughs]...
30:02
you know, you put one $50 bet in on MotoAmerica on DraftKings, and I, I, I say this, uh, kind of anecdotally 'cause I've heard of people who have reached out to us who have done this, [laughs] and they say, "Hey, we, we found an edge here.
30:13
You get, we, we talked about, like, a, a head-to-head edge that you guys gave out where we had this last year. Like, two riders were on completely different types of bikes.
30:22
One was uncompetitive, and yet they were lined at, like, minus 130 to, you know, plus 110. And we bet it, and we, we won, and all of a sudden the account, uh, got limited."
30:31
So that is this fascinating dynamic right now, guys, where more sports are trying to get involved in the betting space. These operators are willing to take it on, but at unbelievably low limits no matter who you are.
30:43
And it, it kind of seems to be like this fallacy of, "Oh, we're offering it, but oh, uh, we're actually not really offering it in, you know, in a real-life sense." Yeah.
30:51
Well, I mean, look, we're, we're seeing it with the NFL Draft, right? You know, Circa just put out what, 15 props? But, but the- Oh, I think a few more. Yeah, but right around 15... few more now.
30:59
The, I mean, the straddle is massive. The limits are low. It, so it's a, it, it's, it's pervasive, but I, I definitely- By the way, Iga, Iga just broke...
31:07
I just wanna say, as the guy who has been unfairly named, and I, look, I lean into it. I lean into it 'cause I'm a, I'm an entertainer. I'm all about the, the narrative.
31:14
As someone who has been painted as the, the Iga slanderer of all slanderers, and it all happened because one time I was filling in for you, Gil- Mm...
31:21
and I made a pretty benign statement, just that on hard courts I felt like Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek were, uh, basically the same ilk a player, if not Sabalenka, uh, slightly better.
31:32
And Chris 'The Bear' Felice texted me saying, "You are right on that statement." You're both right. Uh, I have been [laughs]-- Yeah... I have been named the, the slanderer.
31:39
Well, I just said, you know, maybe you buy low, and she just broke back on Andreeva, so two, two- There you go. Thank you. Ben, it's all, you're all forgiven. By the way- Thank you...
31:46
do you have any French Open men or women? Do you have any bets? Do you think it's, do you think it's Sinner and Iga, or do you think it's somebody else?
31:53
Um, well, I, I certainly think we end up, I mean, it, it's so hard to not, to kind of go against the grain. As much as I want to as far as like a s- another Sinner-Alcaraz, uh, kind of crash course.
32:03
You know, the one thing that's just been jumping out to me, and, and, you know, I, I watch a lot of tennis, and you, you kind of watch and then you compare to how the betting market is looking at certain players.
32:13
Uh, we've all been super high on Joao Fonseca. I think he's still like the fifth or sixth favorite. I saw him 30 to one when I checked a few minutes ago.
32:20
Um, I don't know if it, you know, maybe last year, like, we were just kind of ahead of our skates, and you, you m- it was one of those rare players, and Mirra Andreeva was another example of this, where you heard so much about before you s- got to see a lot just because of the way they came up.
32:35
But I don't know, I wonder if Fonseca is still being, you know, super aggressively priced. And I realize clay is a, a better surface for him.
32:42
But, um, I, I guess it kind of lends into the fact that in today's day and age of men's tennis in particular, you're so used to just these guys now who are not only big servers but also cover so much ground, are so athletic because of the length, because of the reach.
32:57
Fonseca, you know, when you actually watch him, doesn't necessarily reflect that kind of style.
33:02
Like, I, I just find myself surprised the way people talked about him was a little bit different to the way, you know, I see him when you actually watch him play.
33:10
Now, sure, I, I could say this, he could have a really nice run, get into the second week at the French, but I still wonder if he's being, um, just a- aggressively priced still.
33:18
'Cause it does feel like when he has that step up in competition and plays, you know, the, the really rock solid top 10 players, it is a, a big time struggle for him still.
33:27
Um, so that's just been kind of float, been floating in my brain here as we get ready for the French. Or I'm sure he'll be a popular, uh, quarter pick, so to speak. I think that, I think that tracks, right?
33:35
I think both, uh, both he and Mirra Andreeva were like that, where that s- people, people are so anxious to get a new name to topple those at the top, right? And it's probably a little premature.
33:47
They'll get there one day, right? Yeah. They'll, they'll, they'll both probably win a Slam, uh, at least at some point. I, you never know with, on the men's side really [laughs] really.
33:54
I shouldn't say, shouldn't be that confident. We saw a whole generation not be able to win a Slam with the Big Three. But yes, I think you're probably right that both got ahead.
34:02
Um, because these, these guys at the top and these girls at the top, they're, they're not trying to let go of- Very good... of, of their mantle, that's for sure.
34:10
Uh, Ben, with college baseball, the three teams to keep an eye on. That's next, and more with Ben Wilson. Fezzik as well. Numbers Game, VSiN, eSports Betting Network.
34:20
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:35
Back with our Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, Gil Alexander. Danny Higgins in for Kelly Bilin. Fezzik Fridays, top of the hour. Steve Fezzik, only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest.
34:46
Everything that's on his mind, and he's got lots on his mind. Oh, I can't wait to hear. Uh, I'm on the Warriors. I'm doing it again. I was on the Warriors the other night against the Clips Show. I'm doing it again.
34:56
Going against the grain. Again, this line is now out to three and a half. I grabbed the three and a half on the Warriors. Again, it's just a play on, uh, y- you wanna bet against Steph?
35:06
Like, he, uh, that's why I said there was, I, I pr- I predicted it la- uh, before the Clippers game. There's not going to be a minutes restriction on Steph. Steph didn't come back to have a minutes restriction.
35:17
We only, w- I don't know if we're, how much more Steph we're getting, a year more? Two years tops? Yeah, no. I mean, I don't know.
35:24
So he wasn't coming back to have th- to have Steve Kerr sit him at 30 minutes, and he played 35, and he scored 35. And when he wasn't
35:34
at his best, when he, when he had, just had eight points in the first half, Porzingis was the best player on the court for the Warriors. Um- Orford?
35:41
Orford was a- Orford with four splash threes in a four-minute span or three-minute span, whatever it was, late in that game. And then of course Draymond with the two huge steals.
35:50
It was just, for one more night anyway, just a glimpse of the old Warriors feel. You got the feels of the Warriors. Can they do it again tonight and, uh, set up a, uh, one-eight against the Thunder?
36:03
Man, not only am I taking the three points, but I sure hope so- Yeah... 'cause I think basketball would be the better for it if we can get that one-eight.
36:09
Obviously, again, Hornets-Magic tonight, uh, followed by the Warriors and the Suns, the two games for the eight seeds in the respective conferences in the National Basketball Association for the rights to play the Pistons in a best of eight, uh, best of seven, pardon me, in an eight-one, and the right to play the, uh, Oklahoma City Thunder in a best of seven in an eight-one series out west.
36:30
Those series, by the way, will start on Sunday with the three, uh, w- excuse me, with the quadruple header tomorrow of the four-fives and the three-sixes, which we have talked about, uh, all throughout the week.
36:42
Should be fun. The interminable NBA playoffs and really the interminable, uh, NBA first round begins.
36:48
Oh, by the way, which makes me, which reminds me, we are doing, Carl Sack is doing, it's not gonna be on the VSiN platform. Carl Sack is doing a Contest, the handicapping contest.
36:57
When Fezzik's here, we'll try to flesh out- Sure... how people can watch it. But, but those of us who were in the contest last year, which Fezzik won. Oh. I, I finished in fourth. I think it was Fezzik won,
37:08
Zach Cohen second, Kazerian third, and I was fourth. It was like 20 guys deep on the NBA handicapping contest last year for the playoffs, so we'll start that tomorrow as well.
37:18
Ben Wilson kind enough to join us for a few more minutes here as well to discuss other things that he's looking at. You're a college baseball guy, Ben. Ben, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
37:27
Uh, you, you cover the sport. You, uh, you do play-by-play on the sport as well. Give us a few teams that you, uh, feel we should all keep an eye on.
37:38
I love doing this exercise because we're, we're about, uh, six weeks out from Selection Monday. And yeah, for me, I'm about halfway through my slate. I do about 20 games a year. I've, I've done 10 so far.
37:49
Um, I will caveat all this by saying UCLA is the, I mean, by far, the best, most impressive team of the... Of the teams I've gotten to see in person this year, um, UCLA is, is awesome. And yet, here they are.
38:00
I mean, I'm just pulling up, uh, the futures right now. They're five to one, I mean, to win it all.
38:04
So at the, in college baseball, there's just no way, [laughs] no way I'm ever gonna endorse before we turn the calendar to June.
38:10
I'm just never gonna say go out and bet a team single digits, because that number will still exist. So no, no sense in needing to do that.
38:16
Maybe you get lucky, maybe they drop a couple series and dip, but, uh, and, and you can get a double-digit price. But there, no way I'm tying my money up right now. Um, UCLA is awesome. They'll probably...
38:26
They're on pace to be the number one overall seed. I think they're great. Uh, this is the time of year, though, where you start to kind of get into the dog days. You get some teams who go on losing skids.
38:34
And Mississippi State, to me, is the sort of the crown jewel of this. I came away so impressed from... I called a couple of their games early in the season.
38:42
Uh, seven of the nine guys they have in the offensive lineup have an OPS of 900 or above. It's just a, a to- a total ma- mash unit, uh, from top to bottom in that order.
38:51
They brought over Brian O'Connor from Virginia, who led, uh, Virginia to a national championship and multiple College World Series appearances in his time there.
38:59
I think he's been a great fit in Stark Vegas after a couple of down years for Mississippi State.
39:04
Uh, Tomas Vlachos, one of the best pitchers I've gotten to watch in college baseball this year, is, uh, is arguably the best ace that any of these guys are gonna throw out there as we get into the postseason.
39:13
But they just, they got swept back-to-back series. They, they got pounded, uh, both at home by Georgia and Tennessee, so they've, they've dipped.
39:20
They're actually, in the bracketology, they are not even a one seed right now. I would not be surprised at all if they play their way back into that. They're right on the outside looking in.
39:27
But they've dipped here to 12 to one, and I certainly would, uh, this is sort of the classic case of a team that should be single digits. They are one of the five, to me, the five best teams in the country.
39:37
Um, I, I would totally buy on the dip, uh, whether you wanna do that now, whether you wanna wait till right before the, uh, the start of the tournament and see where the bracketing goes.
39:45
But, uh, that to me is, I think of everything I've seen from a value perspective, it's my favorite team right now. Um, and I, and I realize I'm gonna be boring and list three SEC teams, but I- No, no.
39:55
I- I, I have a hard time believing- And- Like at, at the same time, I mean, SEC baseball, it's, it's- That's right...
39:59
far, far and away the best, deepest, toughest conference It's where famously on this show, we had Ole Miss at 100 to one in 2022. We'll never forget it. Yeah.
40:08
Uh, the hotty toddy run to the, to the title was just the most amazing thing all, uh, y- you know, ever in college baseball for us.
40:15
Mississippi State, as Ben says, 12 to one to win the College World Series, plus 130 to make the College World Series. All right, what are the other two teams?
40:24
Uh, our, our friend, uh, Matt Grissom will hate me for doing this. And remember on, on opening day this year, I got to, uh, I, I sort of, I... Matt was on the sh- on your show- Yes...
40:33
and I, uh, I, you know, I kind of jumped in his shot, i- infamously, to kick off the season.
40:37
Uh, he's gonna hate that I'm even saying the team name of, of his, uh, his home- of his hometown, Ar- Arkansas, but I'm gonna do it just because they're, like they're 40 to one now, and it's been a pretty bumpy road.
40:49
I think that's putting it very lightly for the, [laughs] the Hawks so far. The offense has been, uh, extremely hit or miss.
40:55
Gabe Gackle, who I, I, coming into the year, I thought would be one of the best pitchers in the country. Uh, he has been roughed up. His ERA's north of four. It's been, uh, very inconsistent stuff.
41:05
Yet you, I mean, you look at the talent, and I think we have to re- remember and remind ourselves, again, when you're going through an SEC slate, like you're gonna get beat up.
41:13
You're going to have stretches where the pitching looks bad, where the hitting goes through, uh, through droughts, and Arkansas has had that happen. Yet they're still, I mean, treading water.
41:21
They're 500 in the conference. They're, I mean, they're gonna be fine. They'll, they might not be a one seed, but they are gonna be a super dangerous out.
41:27
And at the start of the year, Arkansas was sitting there 10, 12, 13 to one, depending on the book that you shopped at. So I just naturally look at a team that still has a ton of talent.
41:37
Um, maybe there could be some irony this year where there have been all these super hyped Arkansas teams in the past who just totally flubbed come, uh, come super regionals and into Omaha.
41:46
We remember the, the choke that they had in the, the college, you know, the College World Series against LSU a couple years ago.
41:52
So maybe this is finally the year where they're a little bit under the radar, and they finally break through. But I know Matt will hate me for doing this.
41:57
I do think Arkansas, just at the price, is totally worth the play and, uh, and, and they're 40 to one. That's, uh, that's not a number you would have gotten on Arkansas at any point over the last five years.
42:07
Yeah, 40 to one, plus 275 to make the College World Series. And then there is Oklahoma. They are the team. I, I came out of the first sort of, you know, mini pre-season stretch of the year saying, "Wow, this team..."
42:20
And I think they were 50 to one pre-season. I remember thinking, "Okay, like, you gotta, you gotta get that ticket in now. That, that ticket will be cut in half by the time we get to, um, selection Monday."
42:29
And so far, I am on pace to be wrong because they are only down to 45 to one. They've, they got off to an unbelievable start. They've come back to earth a little bit. They are in a nice spot.
42:38
They get to host my alma mater, the Missouri Tigers, who are at the bottom of the SEC, and that should be a nice little, uh, little, little get back on track weekend for Oklahoma after they got swept by Texas where, I mean, two of those games went to extra innings, so it was a, a very tight series.
42:52
But I, I just think Oklahoma is, as a team, built for, you know, the, the type of park you get in Omaha, which really plays to speed, gap-to-gap baseball.
43:01
It's not a bandbox where you're gonna get away with it and a bunch of homers. Um, the pitching is, is outstanding. Um, I, I think for... Like I was just pulling up some of the stolen base numbers.
43:10
Uh, Oklahoma's, their, their top two hitters, uh, Brendan Brock and Johnson, combined 42 of 45 in stolen bases this year, and that number is only gonna, uh, keep going up.
43:19
So it's a, it's an offense that's gotten prohibitively better from last year. Skip Johnson is known as one of the nation's premier pitching coaches. He's the head coach.
43:27
I have a lot of trust in- Uh, you know, CJ Johnson and, and some of the other, uh, some of the pitchers they, they brought in, uh, Xander Mercurius, who's kind of had an up and down first year from, uh, UNLV.
43:37
Cameron Johnson's developed into an awesome Friday night ace for them. This is still a team that is super dangerous for me, and it kind of goes back into the, the category of team that's taken its lumps in SEC play.
43:47
They're treading water right around 500, but, uh, this is not the time you wanna be peaking.
43:52
You wanna be, uh, figuring out your rotations, getting, staying healthy, and getting your ducks in a row to make a run come June.
43:58
So OU, uh, getting, again, tremendously decent odds compared to how much better they've looked since the preseason, and the odds have only come down from 50 to 45 to 1. I love it.
44:09
People are gonna be focused on the World Cup. Not us Americans. We like college baseball, the World Series, and Omaha. Mississippi State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, the three teams to watch from Ben.
44:19
Ben, we got 30 seconds before you go. I'll put you on the spot. NBA finals, who's in it? Uh, I th- I think we end up getting... I, I don't think San Antonio gets over the hump. I think there's been so much, uh, OKC
44:32
s- slander for whatever reason this year. I think the Thunder end up finding a way. Um, I, I actually think that, uh, I'm... I think Detroit act- I think it's gonna be, like, a oddball. We kind of go against the grain.
44:43
The two one seeds make it, even though a lot of- Wow... people will, will not, uh, not believe in that, so. I'm glad I asked. I'm not ready to buy on Boston.
44:50
The, the b- the biggest overachievers, uh, so far of this season. I'm not, I'm not ready to buy. All right.
44:55
You're, you're out in time just before I ask you who's gonna be in the Stanley Cup final, so you got, you got lucky there. Thank you, Ben. [laughs] Aggressive landlord- Great to see you guys... Ben Wilson, everybody.
45:03
Thanks, Ben. Danny, thanks. I love, I love getting that moniker. [laughs] Aggressive, aggressive landlord. Ego slanderer, aggressive landlord. Thank you, Ben. Fezzik, next. Numbers game. VSiN, the sports betting network.
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