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Apr 18, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 18, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 18, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:19
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's all proudly brought to you by DraftKings.
0:17
Here from Bar Canada at the D, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midland. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's up? How you doing, man? Doing well. How you doing? Well, [sighs]
0:29
had a tennis match this morning where, uh, the lady we were backing, Varvara Gracheva, I know you're very familiar with her work. Oh, yeah. Me and Varvara go way back.
0:38
Plus 140 dog, she's up 6-4 in the third set tiebreaker, and she gaks it. Ugh. So yeah, I'm thrilled. I mean, I'm very happy right now. Ah, very happy. How'd your big match go yesterday? Which was the big match?
0:49
The one you played in. Oh, w- oh, with Vez? Yeah. Oh, what a... [sighs] [laughs] Talk about match point staved off. [laughs] It was beautiful.
0:57
These are the two or three months in, uh, in Vegas where the weather is spectacular, so just great to be outside. Oh, I hate the... I, I, I, in the fall we get the nice decline, though.
1:06
In, in the spring here, like I, I was talking with Randy, Randy the great valet guy outside that- Oh, he's the greatest... that we talk to every day. Yeah. Uh, when I showed up yesterday morning it was 58 degrees.
1:15
When I left it was 82. It was beautiful. Beautiful outside. And it'll, it'll, you know, two months from now we'll be in hell, but right now it's wonderful. Uh, okay, we'll get into a whole bunch of stuff today.
1:26
Uh, Crack will join us, not in studio, but he is on the East Coast. He's at the RBC Heritage. Uh, we were promised a shot in front of a lighthouse. [laughs] We will get that today from Bill Krackomberger, unscripted.
1:36
We will talk with him, uh, for a couple segments. Uh, Joe Sheehan on, uh, Joe Sheehan on baseball. Bad day for the Guardians yesterday. Oh, boy.
1:46
Braves come back from behind, Yankees come back dramatically from behind, and the Guardians got Tanner Houck, which we have to get into.
1:53
Uh, Zach Cohen on his, uh, tennis and NBA thoughts, and Luke Swain, I saved the best for last. Luke Swain will join us. Many of you are familiar with, uh, Luke Swain as Vegas Refund on Twitter.
2:06
Uh, if you go back, and we did, and look at his NFL Draft performances and his NBA Draft performances, we'll throw those in as well, it's nothing but plus, plus money, and dramatically so, with the exception, just like us, of last year's NFL Draft.
2:22
Uh, has it caused him to ratchet it back this year? Uh, I don't know if it has or not. We will get all of his thoughts on the upcoming NFL Draft one week from tonight. How about that?
2:33
So looking forward to talking to, uh, to Luke about that. By the way, before we get to the NBA, did you hear about what the, uh, the Commodores did? You hear about what the Commodes did?
2:42
They l- yesterday was the last day to invite draftees into your, uh, into your spot. And instead of them, you know, just doing it individually, like we wanna really spend time with Jayden Daniels, right?
2:55
They invited four, so not Caleb Williams, not Bo Nix- Right... but the other four guys, Drake May, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix, and JJ McCarthy, all at the same time to see how they would like interact with each other.
3:12
Now, I'm sure, I'm, I shouldn't say I'm sure, I'm hoping they already know who they're gonna draft, but like what did that accomplish?
3:17
They were getting crushed by p- by even, even Jayden Daniels', most notably Jayden Daniels' agent liked a couple very critical tweets about this, including one from Mike Florio from Pro Football Talk, and then one that was a little more colorful, let's say.
3:33
Oh, man. So there you go. We, we, we just hit day one in the life of Gil Alexander, where he brought up a comment or a like of a social media post as newsworthy. [laughs] Oh, man.
3:42
Well, look- Oh, well, but it's from his agent I know, I know. The- Yeah, I know... it w- it is a weird story because I, I mean, this was, it w- w- what it was a day or two ago at this point?
3:51
I've heard, I've heard m- mixed reactions from former NFL people. Like, someone that, uh, uh, like I heard someone say that this is not that abnormal. Not for Adam Peters. He did the same thing in San Francisco. Okay.
4:04
Okay. And then, and then I've heard from others kind of like, "Well, you don't do it this late in the process. Like, what's going on?
4:10
Either you don't know, y- you, you have question marks of who you thought you were, were zeroing in on," and I, I kind of agree with that.
4:18
What, what would have to happen for you to know who, think you know who you're going to draft, watch the interaction and be like, "Oh, gosh, we cannot draft that guy"? [laughs] Like, what would have to happen?
4:29
[laughs] Would you just go crazy on the other three people? I mean, well, like, like, I, I mean- Well, we were, we were-... they do the simple like film study stuff with them sometimes, right?
4:37
Like, I mean, if you go ofer on some of the tests and questions, it might be a little concerning. I don't know.
4:43
But like, uh, but my, my point, I d- or the point I agree with is why, why now and not two weeks ago, three weeks ago, four weeks ago? I would, I would agree with all points. Why now? Why ever? Would be my other point.
4:55
Yeah. I, I j- So add it to the list- Yeah... of, uh, pick numbers that I'm not sure about anymore. I mean- [laughs]...
5:02
Jayden Daniels, I hope, didn't, like, pour his beverage over the other three guys, 'cause I just don't want him to eliminate himself. Anyway, that was an interesting thing.
5:08
We'll talk to Luke Swain all NFL Draft, uh, a little later on. Uh, the NBA is, I mean, the only story here is injuries at this point. Ugh. This is just unbelievable.
5:19
So two nights ago, Zion, at really, and we probably didn't make enough of this as much as we- Yeah... did talk about it, but really, like, at the height of that game, he jams it, 95-95 with 3:19 left.
5:31
The Sixers call a timeout six seconds later, but Zion goes straight to the, to the locker room because he pulled his hammy. Mm-hmm.
5:39
And he is out for the elimination game tomorrow night between the Kings and the Pelicans, uh, with the Kings one and a half point favorites now at New Orleans.
5:49
New Orleans without the great Zion Williamson, who scored 40 in that game before having to exit. Um- Against, uh, against the, uh, the, uh, I'm sorry, I'm already forgetting who they played, for God sakes. The Pelicans.
6:01
Lakers. The Lakers. Thank you. God. Good God. It's hard to [laughs] hard to remember the Lakers. Um- It's been a couple late nights of basketball... okay. So that's two night, that's two nights ago.
6:09
And then, you know, this on the heels, right, of Giannis having a calf strain a week ago. A week, actually nine days ago, uh, in their game against the Celtics, the Bucks game against the Celtics.
6:20
Giannis has already been ruled out for at least game one of the Bucks three, six series with the Indiana Pacers.
6:27
One of these series, one of three NBA post-season series now, playoff series, where, uh, the team that is favored in game one is not the actual series favorite.
6:36
So the Pacers are favored, uh, in game one of that g- uh, of that series by one and a half points at Milwaukee, whereas Milwaukee is still a tick of a favorite, a tick of a favorite in the series because we don't know how long Giannis is gonna be out for.
6:48
Uh, and then last night, in the seven, eight game between the Sixers, uh, and, uh, the Miami Heat at Philly, Heat, Jimmy Butler's doing Jimmy Butler things, playoff Jimmy Butler.
7:02
Uh, m- just stealing the ball, easy breakaway dunks, but, um, Kelly Oubre and him sort of tangle up. No fault of Oubre. It's just one of these basketball plays that happens.
7:14
And as we learn later, Butler ha- gets an MCL injury. He's writhing on the court in pain. He decides to play through it. Plays the rest of the game. Looked really affected in the second half though.
7:26
Uh, bottom line, the Sixers come back to win that game 105 to 104. A little bit of drama at the end, but not really.
7:33
Uh, Sixers won it 105, 104 in a game where Joel Embiid, who remember missed eight weeks of the regular season with a left knee meniscus issue, he, I don't know if he tweaked it the second to last day of the regular season.
7:47
Whatever happened, he had to miss, or they decided for precautionary measures that they were gonna take him out of the last regular season game.
7:52
So he sat there, and he shows up yesterday, and he's, he's messing with his knee first in pre-game warmups. You're like, "Is that, you know, gamesmanship? What is that?" Or, "Is he, is there really something going on?"
8:03
And then as you pointed out, Kelly, he also just looked tired playing in that game. It was bizarre. I, I, I thought it was bizarre. I, I mean, we, I knew he was, I mean, I know Friday he left the game, he tweaked it.
8:15
And I, Sunday I thought it was really more precautionary because he had, he like, he had played, you know, 30-ish minutes or less since he returned, which you would expect. You're ramping a guy up.
8:25
But he had been extremely effective in those games. And it was, I mean, you're talking six minutes, seven minutes into that game last night, you're like, "Why does, why does Joel Embiid look so tired?"
8:35
Like he looks gassed. And then I don't know if you heard it, but Doris Burke even mentioned it on the broadcast that he got, he got gassed with warmups. Yeah.
8:43
He was out there in warmups for like seven minutes and got gassed. So I- She's like, "Embiid looks gashed." It was [laughs] I'm like, "What?" Um, so- It was bizarre... but here's the thing.
8:52
He ended up 23, 15 and five, and he hit a huge three down the stretch. So and he had a big rebound and a putback. I mean, he made huge plays in the end. Uh, in the end now, the Sixers end up with the seven seed.
9:03
They will take on the New York Knicks. Again, another one of these series where the Sixers are two and a half point dogs in game one but are a tick of a series favorite. We thought minus 140, that was my guess.
9:14
You said minus 130, I think. Yeah. Me, you, and JVT. It ends up being shorter than that, minus 115 on the series price. Maybe because of the- Oh, I see...
9:24
question around Embiid the, is worth those 15 cents, and I think that's true. I guess the point I'm getting to is, so we have a Kings Pelicans elimination game coming up without Zion. Yep.
9:34
We got a Bulls Heat game without Butler. Butler's gonna be out weeks- Yep... if the Heat continue. Um, we already have the Giannis issue.
9:44
Remember when I put out that w- that f- fictional prop where I was like, "Celtics five and a half losses Eastern Conference playoffs." [laughs] I still, I'm still on the over now.
9:52
[laughs] And now, and now it was, and Giannis, this was before Giannis' injury, before Butler's injury, and before Embiid has shown this strange, you know, sort of wobbly- Yeah...
10:03
literally na- nature of, of being in these games. That five and a half is what now? Four and a half? Oh, less, uh, probably less than that.
10:11
Well, I don't think you can make the line too much less, but, but it's definitely not five and a half anymore. Definitely not five. I'd, I mean- Yeah... I'd go three and a half probably. It's probably where I'd go.
10:20
I, I mean, they could, they could be cruising to the Eastern Conference finals. This is, uh, I, I mean, the Heat, it's a real shame. I mean, they were, I-
10:29
I, for as much as I've gotten on this team over the past couple years, there are, I mean, add the Sixers to the list of Cel- I mean, Celtics, Bucs. Uh, the Heat are living rent-free in their heads. [laughs] Fuck's sake.
10:40
I mean, as soon as, as soon as that game tipped last night, and I can say whatever I want about Joel Embiid, he was definitely ineffective. Yeah. That was definitely part of the problem.
10:48
But the Sixers just saw this zone like a week ago from Miami.
10:52
They're prepping for this, and still they come out there, and the Heat go into full zone mode, and the Sixers look like they've never seen it before in their lives. That zone, that zone was pretty cool.
11:01
Someone described it as a blob yesterday. Yep. It was very interesting to watch that zone. It really was. Uh, bottom line, Sixers minus 115 against the Knicks in the series. Do you like a Sixers bet? No.
11:11
I, I, I mean, like- You can't do it... I have my Sixers futures. How can you do it right now? Yeah. I, I bet the Knicks in game one.
11:16
The, as soon as ga- uh, as soon as the game one price got released, I laid two and a half with the New York Knicks. If Joel Embiid is gonna look anything like he did last night, uh, the Sixers are in major trouble.
11:26
I, and seemingly not, I, I don't feel like a lot of people are not making enough of this. I mean, he was very ineffective on offense outside of free throw shooting and the couple threes that he made.
11:35
In defense, he couldn't close out. They kept him on the perimeter, and he kept allowing open, wide open threes.
11:40
We'll get Zach Cohen's thoughts on the elimination games tomorrow night, where injuries abound, maybe some tennis. NBA with Zach Cohen next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:56
Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with a free VSiN daily newsletter. In today's newsletter, sir,
12:05
we, we- Read all kind of things about the play-in tournament, playoffs, and much more All right. Started out that sentence without hearing you, but we got there in the end. [laughs] All right.
12:13
Uh, get expert analysis, latest odds delivered straight to your inbox absolutely free. Visit vsin.com/newsletter to subscribe.
12:19
Bill's late nights become your early mornings each and every morning with the VSiN newsletter. Uh, it's Gil Alexander. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the feedback.
12:29
Bobby Geddes, "I've brought this up to multiple people now, what would the trade have to be from the Celtics to get Wemby?"
12:36
This, uh, this followed a tweet of his where he said, "Would the s- would the Spurs take the entire Celtic starting lineup for Wembanyama at this point?" To which I said, "Probably not," given his age, given the future.
12:48
I'm gonna take the easy way out here and say the finances don't work- [laughs] That's it... so you can't even enter- entertain that conversation. [laughs] Oh, terrible answer. Square Bob, I never bet total- Wait...
12:59
oh, sorry. Wa- wa- wait, I'll add on to that, though. Yeah. Like, I... Were you not...
13:02
I almost texted you th- this at like, the, during the third quarter, but, like, I, probably the third quarter of the Hawks Bulls game, I'm like, "Can we just get Trae Young to the Spurs already?" Like- Oh...
13:11
accept your role as Scottie Pippen to Victor Wembanyama and, and roll your little pick and roll floater lob game with Wemby and m- and let's just get this done already.
13:21
By the way, we didn't even mention that game, or I didn't mention in the first segment, the Bulls are playing the Heat in the, uh...
13:27
If y- you're wondering who's the Heat's opponent, the Bulls, 'cause they won against the, uh, Hawks last night.
13:31
The Bulls and the Hawks, you're watching that game last night and you're like, "Okay, neither of these teams deserves to be in the playoffs." No, no, it's gross. Like, what are we doing? It's gross. Someone play defense?
13:41
Anybody? No? No one? Okay, great. Uh, Square Bob, I never bet totals, but, uh, Drew Dincic screamed- Oh, killed. Yeah... screamed the Bulls over last night.
13:48
Thank you, and in case you didn't hear Drew, we need you to hold Gil captive for a sushi reveal next time he wants you for more than one segment. I'm buying.
13:54
Yeah, that was his favorite bet, uh, of these first ga- but play-in games and first round games. So yeah, he, he was all over that one. You could in-game over that all night last night.
14:03
Mickey Baca, "NBA is setting up perfectly for a Nuggets Mavericks West finals and a Sixers Celtics East finals. Let's get one of these four home."
14:10
Brian Schaefer, sorry for the grammar yesterday, uh, "Phillies three straight ties with the Guardians." Three straight ties with the Guardians. "Now they have a date with the White Sox for three.
14:19
They will be there for the final week for most wins Apr- uh, March and April." I don't know what he meant by the ties part. Uh, Dback48, "Did they ask all the quarterbacks?"
14:26
[laughs] He's gonna have to send a second apology tweet now. Yeah. [laughs] I... Let's go with third time's gonna be the charm, Brian. We'll get this. Uh, we'll, we'll update those Guardians, uh, Yankees standings.
14:37
Yankees, Orioles, Bra- Braves are now. It's Yankees, Braves, Guardians in that order right now. Uh, Dback48, "Did they ask the, did the skins ask all the quarterbacks which mother they would sleep with out of the group?"
14:49
That's a Zach Wilson tribute, I believe that is. Yeah, I believe so. Yes. [laughs] Los- LasVegas514, "Yo, what are we doing? Just pick Jayden Daniels already. It's not rocket science, or is it? Sheesh."
14:59
That's a Redskins fan. Uh, and then, uh, Nemesis Enforcer, "The Doris Burke was spot on." I meant the commentator. Oh, that's pretty good.
15:06
Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he is a, uh, he's, like, one of the, uh, I should say Wes Reynolds and he, but there's, there's several guys, Adam Burke being that.
15:13
But Zach Cohen is also part of the glue that holds this entire operation together here at VSiN. Uh, he is kind enough to join us now. You can follow him on Twitter at Betting on X.
15:23
VSiN writer and editor and just a guy who writes with volume courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. How about you guys? We're doing well.
15:32
What, uh, tennis bets are, are you sweating today? Uh, I have two left today. I didn't know if they were gonna play, but I have one in Munich.
15:39
I have Botic van de Zandschulp and, uh, Jan-Lennard Struff to go over 21 and a half games, which is, you know, tough to say both names. Yeah.
15:47
I don't know how I got through it, but, uh, [laughs] I think it's gonna be a pretty close match. Uh, van de V- uh, I'll just call him Botic, [laughs] is a solid clay court player.
15:54
Uh, he came off a really big win last round. Uh, just a little bit better from the baseline than Struff is, but Struff has a really good serve.
16:02
Uh, I don't see him losing this match without at least making a pretty big dent in the scoreboard, and his baseline game has been holding up pretty well over the last few weeks.
16:10
Has played some really good clay court matches against really good clay court players, so I think it's under- uh, over 21 and a half is a pretty reasonable bet. It's a low number.
16:18
And the second one I have is Marta Kostyuk plus four and a half games.
16:22
Then I also sprinkled the money line at plus 210 against Qinwen Zheng, which is just a match where, you know, Zheng went to the final of the Australian Open, uh, hasn't really looked the same since.
16:32
And Kostyuk has been cr- incredible in 2024. She's 16 and six. Her break percentage is up over 40%, so if Zheng is not making her first serve, she's gonna make her pay for it.
16:43
And it's just a match where both players hit with so much power. It's gonna be really fun to watch. Just, you know, a lot of haymakers in this match.
16:49
But I do think Kostyuk keeps it close, and I do think that she potentially wins it because I think she's a better mover than Zheng and just a little bit more of a creative player from the baseline.
16:57
And Marta Kostyuk against Zheng Qinwen, uh, Kelly, just a really, a match that, uh, you should probably watch is all I will say. Oh, okay. Yeah. [laughs] Just a real- Where are we at? St- Zach described it as a-...
17:06
Stuttgart for that one? Stuttgart. Yeah. Stuttgart. Yeah. Zach described it as a, uh, as a fun match to watch, and I would say it is fun to watch. Uh, okay. NBA, tomorrow night we have elimination games.
17:19
Sacramento one and a half point favorites against the Pelicans. That number, of course, informed by Zion's absence for the Pels. Then the Bulls and the Heat.
17:28
The Heat only one and a half point favorites at home against the Bulls. That l- number largely informed by Jimmy Butler's absence. Butler, again, reportedly will be out weeks, uh, if the Bulls are...
17:40
excuse me, if the Heat are to advance here, uh, into the first round of the playoffs. Do you have a play on either of these games tomorrow? I do have the Kings in that game against the Pelicans.
17:50
I just think I, I don't wanna pick against Kelly's Pelicans. But I do think it's gonna be hard for New Orleans to s- you know, find the offense that they need to win that game with Zion out.
17:59
Uh, Willie Green no longer seems to trust Brandon Ingram. He's not playing big minutes, not playing the end of games.
18:05
So I do think the only way that the Pelicans could really overcome that is if they just kinda get a lot of threes up. They play Trey Murphy, you know, 35 to 40 minutes.
18:12
But they just haven't done it all season, so I don't trust them to play the rotation they need to just kinda keep up with the Kings team that we know can be explosive offensively.
18:21
I think Sabonis is gonna be a problem for Valanciunas in this game. I think that, you know, Valanciunas is another player that Green has been benching a lot. He doesn't wanna play, you know, a slow-footed center.
18:30
But whoever they put out there, if it's Valanciunas, Sabonis is a little too quick for him, and whoever else they put in, uh, you know, V- Sabonis is a little too big.
18:37
So I just think this is a really good matchup for the Kings. Uh, and I think the Kings-Thunder could be pretty fun. And then the other game, uh, it's a tough one. I think I'm kinda leaning with the Heat right now.
18:47
I know that Butler's out, but I think that Alex Caruso is also in a danger of missing this game. And I think that they said he has a significantly sprained ankle- Jeez... and if he does miss it- Another one. Yeah. Jeez.
18:56
Yeah. That's just, you know, you just talked about it, like neither of those teams were playing defense the other night. Well, Caruso's the only one that does play defense- That's right...
19:03
on the Bulls, especially on the perimeter. So I think that I would trust Spo to come up with something that works.
19:08
Yeah, I, I'll tell you, even if it's playoff basketball and I'm running back on defense, uh, Gil, I, I'm watching where Andre Drummond's running to because, uh, that's what happened last night where Drummond just went full speed into Caruso.
19:19
And you're like, "Oh, my..." [laughs] That's like getting hit by a Mack truck coming down the lane. It was bad. Well, it was the, uh, the Bulls were up 18.
19:27
In a blink they were only up six, and then before you knew it, they were back up more than 20 after that. Um, okay. Do you, by the way, do you have a play in either of the, uh, the elimination games tonight? No, no.
19:36
Just curious. I, I would, I would probably lean both, both ways that, uh, that Zach just said, but man, the injuries make this gross. Yeah. It, it makes it gross. That's exactly right. All right.
19:44
Of the six first round series that have been established, half of them, Zach, half of them feature a team again that is favored in game one... Oh, excuse me, that is a dog in game one, is, but actually a series favorite.
19:55
So we're talking about Sixers-Knicks, where the Sixers are a fir- uh, a game one dog, but actually a tick of a favorite in the series.
20:02
Uh, that also relates to the Suns and the Timberwolves where the Suns are a dog, uh, in game one of the series, but actually a slight favorite in the series.
20:09
And then, uh, in the case of the Pacers and the Bucks, again largely informed by the Giannis injury, 'cause we know he's out game one.
20:15
Uh, Pacers are a slight one-and-a-half point favorite game one, but the Bucks a tick of a favorite in the series. So that's half of your established series already have that strange anomalous thing happening already.
20:26
Do you have a play in any of those series-wise, or games one, if you will, or any of the other three series? I have plays in most of the series. I don't have anything in game one yet.
20:35
I'm still writing up [laughs] series previews. I'm not done yet until we get the Kings-Pelicans result. So I'm still looking at the series mostly. Um, I do have the Sixers to beat the Knicks.
20:45
Uh, I'm not adding too much to it because I added the Sixers at 20 to one. I wrote it up in our NBA playoffs, uh, primer that we put out on draftkings.com.
20:53
But I did pick, uh, the Sixers at 20 to one to win the Eastern Conference. Was hoping that they'd make it through that game last night. It was really ugly. But I do think it's a really tough matchup for the Knicks.
21:03
It's nothing against the Knicks.
21:04
They're missing a guy that makes $30 billion a year, you know, their second most offensive play- you know, second best offensive player in Julius Randle, and I do think that you're going to be missing him in a series against the Sixers where I think that Tyrese Maxey can kind of keep up with Jalen Brunson over the course of seven games, and I don't think that the Knicks [laughs] have someone that can keep up with Embiid.
21:23
I think that Tobias Harris arguably the third, you know, the best number three in this series. So I think it could be ugly.
21:29
I mean, it's gonna be a, you know, a series where all of the games are probably gonna be close, but I do think Philadelphia's the better team as long as Embiid makes it through it, although he looked horrible last night.
21:37
I thought that he was looked slow. He looked like he was in pain, and I just didn't think he should be out there. But he got through it, so, you know, maybe a few days of rest will help him.
21:45
Anything else in the first round? I have the Nuggets minus one and a half against the Lakers. It's about minus 140, so you have to lay a little bit of juice to take it.
21:54
But I, I don't know, like I know the Lakers are a little bit better than they were last year, but they still got swept by the Nuggets this year.
22:00
I still don't think that they have an answer for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and that two-man game.
22:04
And I like that, you know, the Nuggets have Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to throw on D'Angelo Russell, who has been scorching hot for the Lakers lately.
22:11
But Russell's not a guy that can really shake free from a really good defender like Caldwell-Pope. He needs to have open space. So I do think the Lakers are gonna be in a little bit of trouble offensively in the series.
22:21
All right, I'm taking a survey. Celtics total number of losses in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The new line is four and a half. Over or under?
22:30
I'll go over because I do think that they could have, they could run into a little bit of trouble in the Eastern Conference finals. Okay, the number is five and a half. Over or under? [laughs] Under. Ah.
22:38
[laughs] We're, we're price discovering is what we're doing. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Joe, Joe Sheehan on MLB next.
22:45
For a limited time we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits for free. Just sign up at vsi.com/splits. Split bets. The VSiN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes.
22:55
You can see changes in all the action, find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money does not match the public opinion.
23:01
You can check out not just today's action, but future events as well if you'd like. Take advantage though, it is limited in its time that we will offer it. That's called a limited time offer.
23:11
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23:22
Gil, can I give you a quick update from the RBC Heritage- Oh, please... which is underway? Yes, please. So Alejandro Tosti, we were talking about a couple weeks ago. Oh, yes we were. Yeah. The Nick Curio of the PGA Tour.
23:31
Watch out for him. He, uh, he had the, I guess, unfortunate situation today to be the lone golfer to start the tournament, 'cause it's an odd number field. Uh, so he had to go out by himself this morning, okay? Uh-huh.
23:43
Which for Alejandro Tosti I believe is the perfect thing he could have. [laughs] He is your current leader at four under, okay? He's through 12 holes. The next group behind him is five holes back.
23:54
He's just cruising through it. Wow. He's just cruising. [laughs] As any of us who have played golf by ourselves find, we could get through. But him, a pro, can you imagine? Just like, that's awesome.
24:04
Uh, by the way, I just want to read this one tweet. This is from, uh, this is from Primetime, Cowboys_Cubs1.
24:09
"After a thorough numbers game investigation," listener investigation, he says, "I've concluded that the recent rash of NBA injuries is due to the following factors. One, the MLB pitch clock."
24:18
[laughs] "Two, sportsbooks' incessant television advertising, and three, LIV Golf and specifically Greg Norman." [laughs] That's probably true. That's pretty good. Yeah.
24:26
Uh, real quick before we get to Joe, uh, here is the update on our Guardians bet for those who followed me on this. Uh, the, s- Circa put out this great prop to begin the season, most wins in March and April.
24:37
And the tiebreaker is if you have the same number of wins, who has the fewer losses? And at 65 to 1, I thought the Guardians were a great bet. Uh, yesterday was not the best though.
24:46
Yesterday, uh, the Yankees came from behind dramatically to beat the Jays. The Braves came from behind dramatically to beat the Astros. Meanwhile, the Guardians got Tanner Houcked. What a performance by the Red Sox.
24:58
It's one of these, even when you have the bet and you s- you just have to tip your cap. You're like, "That was amazing." Tanner Houck with a three-hitter in a game that lasted one hour and 49 minutes.
25:10
Caught that yesterday, wow. Unbelievable. Um, we bring in Joe Sheehan from joesheehan.com, uh, one of our great guests on baseball, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
25:20
And, um, so yeah, that was a hit for the Guardians bet. But let me just ask you about Tanner Houck for a second, Joe. And by the way, hello, how are you? Good to see you. Good, good.
25:28
Tanner Houck, for those who are sitting at home and watched that yesterday, I watched every pitch. It was unbelievably dominant. Um, is there a Cy Young bet to be made on this kid?
25:40
No, because I just don't think he's gonna be able to pile up the innings. You know, they've been trying to make Tanner Houck a starter for a few years now, and it's worked so far this year.
25:47
Guys, I was surprised yesterday. I actually gave out the Guardians as one of my picks on, on my gaming newsletter. And, uh, you know, he's struggled against left-handers in his career.
25:55
He's given up a 300 BA to them so far this year with a 7-0 strikeout-walk ratio to lefties. Uh, but he was fantastic last night.
26:02
Now, the game had a 20 to 1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, so I'm kind of waiting to see the ump scorecard. I'm a little curious as to what kind of zone Ro- Roberto Ortiz had last night.
26:11
But you have to give him credit for going the distance. You mentioned the game, 1:49, which is something out of the 1970s. Uh, I just don't think he's going to be able to pile up the innings.
26:20
And there's a few guys like this who are pitching well in both leagues right now, which is very hard to project to the 160, 170 innings that are really gonna be the bare minimum for a Cy Young win.
26:31
Fastest game in 14 years, by the way, for those who like such things or are curious in such things. Wow. And he completed a Maddox, um, in that one hour and 49, uh, minute game.
26:41
By the way, the last, uh, the, that, that's the shortest nine-inning game since that Armando Galarraga game where they basically, Jim Joyce, poor guy, basically stole the perfect game from him for the Detroit Tigers so many years ago.
26:54
But, uh, in honor of, uh, Greg Maddox, that refers to a shutout accomplished in fewer than 100 pitches, and so he threw a Maddox, uh, yesterday, and it was just a, a remarkable performance.
27:02
And the Guardians go down, and so now, uh, the Yankees with the one-win lead in that prop, uh, and really with the, with the game in hand. So the Guardians got to get that win in Boston today.
27:13
Um, that's a big one for us in a short baseball slate. That's... Gil, that's the interesting thing about last night. So I was out. I actually didn't get to see the game.
27:20
And I got home, and I just assumed that it was a getaway day for, for both teams, and it wasn't. They actually play a day game today in Boston. Yeah.
27:27
It's very much a getaway day approach on a, on a day that wasn't a getaway day, so I was surprised to see that. What is the biggest thing here? We, we're not even a quarter of the way.
27:35
We're, you know, we're not even, what are we, an eighth of the way. We're basically an eighth of the way through the baseball season.
27:40
What's the biggest headline for you thus far, either about a team, uh, overperforming or underperforming, or about a specific player? Tanner Houck is the only healthy pitcher in baseball. [laughs] It- Yeah...
27:53
that, that's got to be the big story thus far. Yeah... guys. All of the starters we've lost. You know, we're waiting to see if Gerrit Cole comes back. We've obviously lost Strider for the season.
28:00
You know, guys that were at the top of the Cy Young picks charts to start the year are now either not going to pitch or certainly not going to pitch enough to win the awards, and they've tried to figure out.
28:08
You know, John Sterling actually retired because of the max effort pitching. You talk about all the things that are being affected by this.
28:14
Uh, it's, it's really something that, uh, we can't keep pitchers healthy, and that's been the story over the last couple of weeks or so. The other thing I'm looking at is the offensive levels.
28:22
Um, that was a big story last year. You know, they, they banned the shift.
28:26
Uh, we had a real spring training for the first time in a few years, and offensive levels jumped back to, you know, where we thought they would be. Well, this year to start the year, power is gone again.
28:36
Batting average on balls in play has slipped back to where it was a couple of years ago. It hasn't really shown up in the run scoring as much.
28:42
Run scoring's down about 3%, but slugging's down, you know, 30 points year over year. Uh, batting, as I mentioned, BABIP is down eight points year over year. You look, you know, the fly ball rate's about the same.
28:52
The pull rate's about the same. Baseball, MLB publishes the drag signatures of the baseball, you know, how well the ball flies. Those seem to be about the same too.
29:01
So I'm really watching to see, you know, where w- the run environment goes, which obviously affects a lot of things with betting.
29:06
So far this year, looks like over under, basically 50/50, so it hasn't really affected the numbers in that yet. But I want to know where the offensive levels are to, uh, to kind of do all my analysis. Yeah.
29:16
And again, it's one of those things where we've seen run environments change dramatically even mid-season.
29:22
So it's not like Major League Baseball can't, uh, magically, even though they wouldn't say this out loud maybe, but magically a new batch of baseballs will appear at some point, right? 2015 was a big...
29:34
That was the first time this really happened.
29:35
It, the first half of 2015 looked like the 2013-14 run environment, and then after the All-Star break, we got a jump to the offensive levels that really sustained for the rest of the decade.
29:46
It's bounced around a lot here in the 2020s. You know, uh, Meredith Wills does a lot of research there.
29:51
She's done a great, she does a great piece of b- uh, Business Insider last year looking at, you know, the, the way the patterns of the baseball's changed throughout the year.
29:58
So this is something that we can't be comfortable, as you say, if it's one thing in April and May, we could get a new batch of baseball. So something that you're kind of always...
30:06
I'm always looking at that drag signature page, and I'm always looking at things like, you know, output on barrels or output on fly balls to get a sense of where offensive levels are going.
30:15
It is important to note, it is early April. Weather is always going to be a factor, particularly here in the Northeast.
30:21
Baseballs aren't gonna fly, but there are just a lot of nights, 8:30 here on the East Coast, and I'm looking at a scoreboard that's 2-1, 2-1, 1-nothing, 3-1, 4-1.
30:30
A lot of teams not even getting to three runs a lot of nights. Yeah. Uh, by the way, deep dive on baseball for all the baseball hardos out there, the Joe Sheehan Newsletter again.
30:37
And you can follow Joe on Twitter at Joe_Sheehan. Um, is anything gonna be done about the umpires and these balls and strikes, and it just being a scourge on the game, Joe?
30:46
You know, uh, it's frustrating because we've been talking about this for a long time now, and the technology is in place to have the technology call the balls and strikes.
30:53
Now, there are people who will tell you, "Oh, you know, they miss things on the corners." There's been a lot of...
30:57
The walk rate was very high in AAA last year after they went to this system, with the challenge system I should even say, not even the, the full system.
31:04
Um, my argument is that when you actually look at the calls the human umpires make, they're just as bad as the call, the bad calls that get made by the, uh, the system.
31:12
I would much rather see a system in place than see...
31:16
You know, we focus on Angel Hernandez, who's obviously had a really bad start to the season, but all umpires are making these calls two inches off the outside part of the plate, pitches that just aren't designed to be hit.
31:26
If you go back to the origins of the strike zone, you know, Kelly will remember the 1880s- Sure. [laughs]...
31:31
when we first had to start, when we first had to start calling balls and strikes, the idea was we have to do this so that batters will put... pitchers will throw hittable pitches and batters will put them in play.
31:42
We need to get back to that.
31:44
The big, the best way to get more balls in play is to make sure the strike zone is called properly so that batters aren't being asked to hit 98 mile an hour fastballs two inches off the plate, or big sweeping sliders four inches off the plate.
31:59
The pitchers are so good right now, we've got to tighten up the strike zone, and the only way to do that is with an automated system.
32:05
Uh, if I've said it once, I've said it a million times, Joe, on this show, 1880s baseball, that. [laughs] That right there was the greatest baseball. The golden age.
32:11
All right, 60 seconds, I wanna get, uh, your thought on this, 'cause obviously we talk about the incongruence between 162 games, and then you go in this best of three, best of five situation in the playoff.
32:20
So if you get in the postseason, anything can happen. Give me a team that's not one of the obvious ones, not your Dodgers, Yankees, or Braves, that you think a bettor who just wants to have one futures bet ought to make.
32:31
Particularly because they're off to a sl- a slow start this year, I look at the Twins. Their underlying performance is better than their record.
32:36
You get them into a short series when they get healthy, you got Ryan and Lopez up front. Bailey Ober had a terrible start, but he's a good pitcher.
32:43
And at the back of that r- uh, that bullpen, Joander Perez when he gets healthy, Griffin Jax, they're gonna be tough in a short series. Now, you know, they finally won a playoff series last year.
32:51
They got eliminated by the Astros, but get them into the playoffs and they can be dangerous. All right. Joe Sheehan, everybody. Joe Sheehan Newsletter, joesheehan.com. At Joe_Sheehan on Twitter. Did I miss anything, Joe?
33:02
Anywhere else they can find you? Uh, one thing, freesheehannewsletter@gmail. If you just wanna check out the newsletter, freesheehannewsletter@gmail. I'll add you to the free list. You get one piece a week.
33:13
You can see what I do.
[email protected]
. Thank you, Joe. Yep. Great seeing you, man. Thank you so much. Thanks fellas. Take care. Joe Sheehan, everybody, on the show.
33:23
Uh, we have gone 40 minutes without talking about the NFL draft. That is not allowed. Not allowed. We will talk about it after the break. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:32
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33:47
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33:53
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code V-S-I-N, that's VSiN. New customers bet $5 get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code VSiN, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours.
34:06
Gil Alexander, we get tweets that beat the f-... Chris Heath, "Never knew the precise definition of limited time offer. Thanks, Gil." That's why I'm here, Chris.
34:13
[laughs] Jimmy Lopez, uh, "What's faster, an, uh, a, a, uh, Angelo Toasty solo round or Gil running to bet Wemby Defensive Player of the Year next year?" Oh, I'm betting Wemby MVP next year.
34:28
Defensive Player of the Year, what's he gonna open, minus 10 bajillion? And all these people are like, "Well, he plays for a sucky team," are, are gonna s- simply forget about that next year.
34:36
I mean, he's gotta be the favorite. Uh, Jesse Welch. MVP I'll be betting. I'll be betting it. Of course. Like, I, like, like, that's...
34:43
I'm not saying it's a s- I'm not saying it's the smartest bet in the world, but you tell me at the end of next year if Victor Wembanyama gets to heights that we all believe he's gonna reach one day, you're not gonna hate yourself for having, not having an MVP ticket.
34:55
Jesse Welch, speaking of that Galaraga blown perfect game, why on earth hasn't the, hasn't Major League Baseball come out and officially corrected it to a perfect game? That's so due at this point.
35:05
Um, update on, uh, update on, uh, our man. He's now only three holes ahead of the rest of the field. By the way, we're not talking about the leaderboard. [laughs] We're talking about physically he is playing golf solo.
35:15
[laughs] Uh, yeah. Y- they've, uh... W- who is, who do we got? Austin Eckroat and Eric Barnes are in the next group. They have closed the gap.
35:23
I figure, I figure my past reporting too, I got the perfect, like, he must have just finished a hole, and the guys were still, uh, you know, on the green on the last one or whatever. So they're, they've closed the gap.
35:32
Three holes behind. Yeah, we're referring to, uh, Alejandro Tosti.
35:36
Uh, who, uh, because of the odd number of, uh, players at the RBC Heritage, down at the Harbour Town Golf Links in South Carolina, uh, played solo to begin with, and so he is just
35:48
absolutely warp speed through the course. Yeah, four, it was four under through six holes. He's calmed down, parred the last three. So- [laughs] Okay... let's go Si Woo Kim. Got first-round leader on him.
35:57
He's two under through three. All right.
35:58
And Bill Krackomberger will join us from the RBC, in front of the lighthouse, a little later on, as will Vegas Refund, uh, you know him that way on Twitter, Luke Swain, to talk NFL Draft with us.
36:09
Uh, he has had plus money in every NFL and NBA draft since we've known him, uh, three, four years ago, with the exception, like so many of us, of last year's NFL Draft. And I am curious, Kelly, if it has caused him.
36:22
What do you, what do you think is the biggest cause of this? And I don't know his answer. Yeah.
36:26
Is it because of the loss that people took last year on a, on a betting vehicle that we always could count on to be a winner, and we all took it on the chin last year?
36:38
Has th- what, what has been the biggest cause of your ratcheted back NFL Draft bets? Is it that?
36:44
Is it the fact that the way that March Madness was a week later, uh, obviously, the Masters comes right after that, and that w- our length of time talking about the NFL Draft has also shrunk this year by a week?
37:00
Uh, or is it just the fact that the way it's falling, that you know number one, you have no idea really, specifically after two, maybe you think you know two, maybe you don't. Mm-hmm.
37:10
But that specifically after number two, that we have no idea, real idea what's gonna happen, that there's always the possibility of trades, and that it only becomes clearer in spots afterwards.
37:20
Which of those three things you think is the biggest reason for your ratcheted back- The latter. That one? Yeah. I, I, I think the- I think so, too.
37:26
I think the la- the lack of time that other sports, you know, the, the longer run out of the NCAA tournament, I, all I think that's done is affect media coverage of it.
37:34
But I think each draft is, I mean, e- look, each draft i- is, is its own i- in different ways, right?
37:40
And some, that's gonna make, that's gonna naturally make some easier to bet than others, when you feel like you have more locked in and there's less movement at the top.
37:50
Um, I think this one has been a little bit tricky from that standpoint, where there's a lot of question marks still in that top 10, and that affect a lot of things f- uh, a lot of things after it.
38:00
Um, and then, and then it's the sportsbooks too, right? Uh. I mean, it is the sportsbooks. We, we've been talking about that for years. It is, it's the, that's the fourth one.
38:06
I, it's the, it's the, you know, it, it's less options that are getting posted, getting posted later in time. Um, not willingness to, you know, to take as big a bets as usual.
38:15
Not willing to take as w- that's the biggest one for me, is that the, the shops that used to take big bets just aren't anymore. Yeah.
38:23
I, I was talking to Luke a little bit yesterday about, about, we'd, we'd talked about, about the NBA. "Did you wanna hit on anything for the NBA draft?"
38:29
[laughs] And it's, 'cause this NBA draft class is supposed to be one of the worst that we've ever seen. By, by some NBA executives called the worst ever.
38:37
So if there's, okay, if that's the case, how much demand is there gonna be from, you know, the casual bettor to actually bet the NBA draft?
38:45
Probably that much, not that much, which gives the books even more excuse to not post that much. So it's, I think that one's gonna be really fascinating to see how it's handled.
38:55
I think, uh, I think you made the point, uh, you don't have to own this if you don't want, but I, I believe it was you that wanna give me credit, which is
39:02
the, the books are all, because of the shrunk time also, that it feels like the books are getting away- Yeah... with a little more this year, like the limits. We're talking about Nevada.
39:13
You- other places, I don't know what's going on. Right, right. [laughs] Right. Yeah, I don't know what's going on. Yeah. But in Nevada, uh, shops that used to take really big bets now will limit you to a nickel. Um,
39:25
some of these places that are taking nickels say that they will open it next week, but others are not saying that. Um, so there's that. And then it's, it is six different places here in Nevada that are offering- Yep...
39:39
that are offering actual, uh, NFL draft props. But again, some of them just showed up couple days ago. Yeah, and I guess I, I can't, I can't answer for the books.
39:47
You would think they'd be able to h- to, to handle the schedule. But, like, I, maybe they just didn't feel the need with N- NCAA tournament going so far, and then Masters right after it. Yeah.
39:56
That they didn't feel the need to get stuff up as quick. And you know, you know how they feel.
40:00
The, I mean, some people say it's justifiable, 'cause they're like, "Look," they, they know that it's possible they're gonna take a loss.
40:06
Other businesses in the world have something called a loss leader, where they're willing to take a loss on something to promote the larger goal, right? Right. Uh, not so much with sportsbooks.
40:15
[laughs] Not as much with sportsbooks. Um, let's run through these real quick, though, and get our quick thoughts on, because you can bet, uh, each and every one of these numbered draft positions. Yeah.
40:26
One obviously being Caleb Williams. Uh, two, obviously Jayden Daniels is a big favorite at number two. Yeah, I st- I, I started with, uh, you know, started with number three. Yeah.
40:38
Because I thought we had a little bit more figured out number two. I, a, you know, before we heard or started to hearing about these, all these quarterbacks showing up in camp- Yeah... or, or to work out.
40:48
Again, if you missed it, the, uh, the taco holders, the Washington taco holders, they, uh, they had every one of the prospective first-round, uh, quarterback draft picks with the exception of Bo Nix and, uh, Caleb Williams, who's obviously gonna go number one.
41:01
So they had Penix, McCarthy, uh, Daniels, and May all together yesterday. [laughs] Yeah. Which I have no idea why, why they would do that, but they ended up doing it that way.
41:14
So I don't know if Adam Peters knows exactly who he's gonna draft or not, or I don't know if that, there was something that could've happened at that event that would've dissuaded him from whoever he has in mind, but there you go.
41:23
That number does keep moving Daniels' way, though. Number two right now- Yeah... is Daniels minus 350. So then we get to- It feels like Daniels. I, I think it is. Number three, Drake Mayes, your favorite at minus 145.
41:33
JJ McCarthy, plus 205. Jayden Daniels, plus 260. A lot of people love Drake May the best of the bunch. That's interesting. That's a, that's a lot- There's-... better than I thought.
41:44
Yeah, th- well, and, uh, well, when did McCarthy jump Daniels in this too? Well, he jumped in when Jayden Daniels kept drifting the other way and for number two- Okay... probably, right? Yeah, probably.
41:55
I, just again, these are just based on what you hear. Number four might be even more interesting, that Marvin Harrison Jr. is only -175 to go fourth to the Cardinals.
42:07
By the way, it doesn't have to be the Cardinals, let me be specific. Yeah. To go fourth. I have him to the Cardinals at this price, but yeah. Yeah. [laughs] That was m- that was my first bet.
42:14
[laughs] So again, if there's a trade out, the assumption, you know what they say about assuming, um, the assumption is that it would be for a quarterback. But as C.J.
42:27
Stroud, Marvin Harrison's former teammate, came out and said this week, he said, "If you've got Marvin Harrison available to you"- Yeah... d- his quote was, "Don't be dumb." Yeah, exactly. Just draft him. The, uh- J.J.
42:37
McCarthy's +175 to go fourth. It's all the trade stuff. So I- It's all the trade stuff... uh, w- I'm gonna, we're gonna, let's throw out the trade scenarios for now.
42:44
I, i- if you knew a trade wasn't happening, Marvin Harrison Jr. at -175 I think is a steal. The problem is, is you've got picks three, four, five. Yep. At least those three, that there's major trade question marks.
42:55
Let's see five. What does five have in store for us? Number five. Number five, which right now is the Chargers pick. Neighbors. Malik, Malik Nabers is +220, Harrison Jr. is +275, as is J.J.
43:05
McCarthy, and my guy Joe Alt- Yeah, you [laughs]... is +475. So you have Alt, I have- I have Alt... you have Alt, I have Nabers in this market. And around similar numbers, right, for both of us? I'm +450. Yeah, yeah.
43:17
Yeah. I'm +220 or something like that. Yeah. So, um, around those same numbers, but the one thing that could burn you or m- you and me, a trade. Yep. Six. I'm just curious. Yeah, that is Nabers now favored +145.
43:32
Your boy Odunze. I have Odunze- Or Latimer... uh, at a better number than this. Odunze's +250. I have him +325. Remember, that was Felika's intel. He thinks the Giants really like Odunze. J.J. McCarthy's 5 to 1 here.
43:46
Yeah, this is gonna stink when Nabers drops to them. [laughs] The Titans, who currently inhabit the seventh position, Joe Alt's gonna be the big favorite here, right? Yeah, Joe Alt is -175 to be the seventh overall pick.
43:56
All right, not as b- not as big of a favorite as I thought, but still a favorite. Odunze and Nabers right behind him. Yeah. And then Dallas Turner, number eight, is +180 right now. You can still get him at +180? Yeah.
44:09
Yeah. Wow. Vegas refund, his specific NFL draft bets coming up. Crack Man is next. Numbers Game, exclusively Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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