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Apr 19, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 19, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 19, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story. They always do. So are those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate you taking us in however you're taking us in this morning. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
It's Kelly Midlan live from Bar Canada at The D. Kelly Midlan, ladies and gentlemen, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. What's happening? Not much, man. Not much.
0:30
There's a, there's like a rogue walkie-talkie going on behind us right now- [laughs]... and it's really distracting. We were just, we were just breaking down the, the essence of that name. Yeah. So that, that stuck.
0:40
What do you call that device? Walkie-talkie. [laughs] I- So great... one of my favorite stand-ups ever is the Brian Regan- Yes... stand-up on the walkie-talkie. You just watch the two-minute YouTube right now.
0:50
It's hilarious. [laughs] It's so great. Uh, all right, this is such a great time of year as the, uh, the run-up to the NFL draft is coming. Uh, we will talk to, uh, so many... We'll talk to Frank Schwab about that.
1:00
I have added a bet this morning. We will get to that momentarily. Uh, we'll talk to Frank Schwab from Yahoo about the NFL draft. Jason Weingart will be here to talk all of his bets.
1:08
Nick Whalen on the NBA playoffs, which after the two elimination games tonight begins in earnest tomorrow. Paul Carr on the Premier League. How about some UFL with Stormy Bonatony? Yeah. We're covering it all today.
1:22
Stormy, uh, on the table? Is she, uh, is she- On Skype... calling in on Skype? Yeah, on Skype. On Skype. She's calling on Skype. Okay. Uh, we'll do all of that. Uh, we'll update the Guardians bet as well.
1:30
We have to start with the, uh, NFL draft movement that happened this really overnight f- regarding the number two pick in the draft, and this involves my, uh, my boyhood team, the Washington Commodores.
1:42
Um, Jayden Daniels, at one point yesterday, the Jayden Daniels/Drake May, who will be the second pick in the draft market, who will be the number two pick in the draft, was minus 115 on each side. Yeah. Got to that.
1:55
Saw that here at Circa. I think I saw mi- someone tweet out minus 110 each way over at DraftKings. Yeah. So yeah, it, uh [laughs] it got, got exciting last night.
2:05
Well, I didn't think I was gonna make any more bets in this NFL draft after my flurry earlier in the week, but guess what? I just bet Jayden Daniels minus 125 at Caesars this morning to go number two. Um, why the steam?
2:18
Let's start there.
2:19
Some are speculating that it's 'cause Daniel Jeremiah, uh, said something specifically that he's personally leaning towards the Commanders drafting North Carolina quarterback Drake May over Daniels, so maybe that was the movement.
2:32
I, I think it's more perhaps what I was talking about earlier this, this week about Jayden Daniels' agent liking a couple tweets, uh, one from Mike Florio, m- one from Mike Florio from F- Pro Football Talk, the other from just, uh, someone chiming in on that one a little more harshly about how, uh, Adam Peters and the taco holders brought in four quarterbacks all at once, uh, amongst a group of 20, by the way.
2:57
But, uh, besides Bo Nix and Caleb Williams, they brought in the other four, uh, remaining quarterbacks that are speculated to perhaps go in the first round at the same time, and Florio didn't like that.
3:06
And, and Jayden Daniels' agent liked the, the ne- the tweet about that, you know, criticizing it. He also then, uh... It was also reported then that Jayden Daniels met with the Vikings thereafter as well.
3:20
So I think if you put all those three things in- Mm-hmm... including the Jeremiah, um, comment, because people do pay attention as we had Vegas Refund, uh, Luke Swain on yesterday.
3:29
He reported back about the, uh, Jeremiah news conference. People obviously pay attention to what Jeremiah has to say. He's like the EF Hutton of the NFL draft.
3:37
And so put all that in the mix, and it moved, and it moved dramatically because Jayden Daniels was over a $2 favorite to have gone number two, and then all of a sudden, here we are near, near a pick 'em, even though Daniels is just a tick of a favorite now.
3:52
And Kelly, I just, I feel like in all this discussion about this, 'cause people are speculating, 'cause w- w- what are people looking for? The mainstream media guys like Peter Schrager, like Adam Schefter,
4:05
they're all using the language of, "My intel says," or, "The signs that I'm hearing around the league that I'm picking up on are, is that Washington is going with Jayden Daniels."
4:16
So the mainstream guys are still using that kind of vague language. Uh, and I hear, I'm hearing folks this morning saying, you know, they're not sure what's gonna happen.
4:25
I feel like in, in all the discussion on this, that one major point is being left out, and that is a human one more than a football one, which is that if you're Adam Peters, and I get it, you have no history with this franchise, and you have a new owner, and supposedly you have carte blanche to pick whoever you want at number two.
4:44
But a human characteristic is that as much as you want to do something that succeeds, you are equally, if not more motivated by not doing something that will be a failure, and the repercussions that come with that failure.
4:59
Now, that's not to say that no matter who you pick at number two, if it fails, you're not gonna have repercussions.
5:05
But I am here to sort of offer this as my take on it, which is I think in the end, Adam Peters is either tacitly or verbally, but I'm gonna say it's gonna be unspoken. I think it's gonna be tacitly.
5:19
He is gonna make the calculus that if I pick Drake May and that fails and/or Jayden Daniels becomes this great player for another team, that the repercussions of that for him personally starting out as the new GM of the Washington football team is going to be that much worse than if he picks Drake May and that happens to fail over time.
5:44
Uh, excuse me, that if he picks Jayden Daniels and that happens to fail over time.
5:49
Because I think with the G- if you pick Jayden Daniels and that fails, you can still fall back on, well, he won the Heisman, he's multidimensional, um, played for a bigger program.
5:59
I think there's ways to talk yourself through that and overcome that more cleanly than you could if you took- A little bit more of, dare I say, a reach, let's put that in, in relative terms, on a guy like Drake May.
6:14
Not to mention, not to mention that even though Adam Peters doesn't have history with this franchise, that he has to be well aware of the muscle memory of that fan base, which is, well, when we last had the number two pick and picked a quarterback, a gentleman by the name of Robert Griffin III was outstanding, was the rookie of the year, and until he got hurt, was everything you could have possibly imagined him to be.
6:39
And the flip side of that is the last North Carolina quarterback that they drafted just a couple years ago, well, let's just say Sam Howell wasn't exactly- Yeah... in the Hall of Fame.
6:50
So I j- I just wanna s- I, I put all that in the mix for me, and I think the motivation of that fear and that m- and that precipitous drop of credibility if it goes wrong if you pick May and it go- and it, and it goes badly, I think that's as much of a motivating factor in all this than anything.
7:10
I think Washington is gonna take Jayden Daniels, and I betted this morning at minus 125.
7:15
I'd hate to think that if I just hired a new GM that that's their attitude, but you know it's gotta be in the back of their head a little bit, right? We're all human. And we're all human.
7:26
I think the big o- I think the big one with that, like the way I would almost spin it is, is, 'cause I think we've seen this more recently with guys like Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels' legs are gonna be a w- a weapon enough that his rookie season, even if the throwing doesn't develop right away, it buys you more time as a GM, right?
7:46
Like, that, I think that's the whole Justin Fields thing. Once we saw him running the ball, you're like, "Whoa. Okay, he can get it done on the ground. We c- let's give him a little time for his arm to develop."
7:54
And I think, I think Daniels bails you out a little bit more in that sense than what Drake Maye does, right? 'Cause Drake Maye isn't amazing right off the bat.
8:02
I think you're immediately gonna get a lot of those questions of, "Whoa, what did we do here?" When Daniels, I think, gives you a little bit more time, uh, to, to, uh, to allow him to develop.
8:12
I think it's really interesting. I think with all this stuff, yeah, ev- everything you just brought up, I mean, I, I've kind of been, you know, thinking it's Daniels number two all along.
8:21
I don't really think that there's any of that. I wasn't gonna bet this, but now- Yeah... the market moved in a way where I'm like, "I gotta bet this."
8:26
Well, and, you know, I've, I've, how many times have I brought up and I'm like, "It's minus 270 now. It's minus 300 now." Right.
8:30
I think I'm going to be joining you with, on this bet today, 'cause I, I think you, I think we just listed everything that's a factor here. Well- None of that's big enough to really take me away from the bet.
8:39
Well, one more, and this piggybacks what you were saying, is this is not a horrible offense. This is an offense that has the incomparable Terry McLaurin- Mm-hmm... as your wide receiver one. Jahan Dotson, Dyami Brown.
8:53
You have wide outs. Yep. You also have now in a backfield, and I know people say, "Oh, Austin Ekeler, you pay, you overpaid for a third down back." Well, maybe you did, but you still have him.
9:02
And you have Brian Robinson as your workhorse. So you have pieces. Then you say, "Oh, but your offensive line stinks."
9:07
Yeah, but this team has the 36th and the 40th pick in the draft as well, which they, even if they d- if they stay there, they draft an offensive tackle.
9:15
But you could package those two and trade up for an offensive tackle as well, the one that you like the best, in the late part of the first round, 'cause that has contract implications.
9:24
So you have it set up where if your rookie quarterback is actually good, I'm not gonna say top 10, but if it's, like, top half of league good, good, you're a playoff team. Yeah.
9:37
And then you have the prospect, what do we always say? You can only win a Super Bowl if you have a quarterback that overperforms on a rookie quarterback or is a Hall of Famer.
9:45
Then in the subsequent years, 'cause they're not a Super Bowl contender, they're a playoff contender, they're not a Super Bowl contender.
9:51
But you could also then get your mind into, yeah, but in two or three years, if he's really good- Right... maybe we are that. So I just don't, I don't get the Drake Maye movement at all. Don't get it.
10:03
I don't get that it's, it- I, I get it literally by what I said at the beginning of this. Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I understand why it is, but I don't un- I... Let's put it this way. To the level, right?
10:11
I, w- people, well, I mean, it doesn't take a whole bunch to move NFL draft, uh, markets. But let's just put it this way. You've moved it enough now where I'm in. Mm-hmm. Yeah.
10:19
I, I guess I was surprised by how much it moved. I, that, that- Yeah... was really mine. And, uh, I mean, the third overall pick odds now [laughs] are, this is, this is a crapshoot, right?
10:29
I mean, you're tell- we're sitting here less than six days away from the draft and you're talking even money on Drake Maye, plus 115 on Daniels, and plus 275 on McCarthy, and I got no idea.
10:39
Well, also with the Patriots, ugh, there's some speculation, and I don't know this to be the case, but it's, you know, speculation like all speculation is, that if Daniels is the guy they really want and they're not as high on Drake Maye- Right...
10:51
do they trade out of there? Well- Because they have an early second round pick. Um- I think they're a major trade candidate... I wanna say it's 34. They have 34.
11:01
So y- they may very well be thinking to themselves, "Well, if we like Bo Nix kind of more than everybody else, maybe we can just get a quarterback at 34."
11:12
So I don't know if there's all k- you're right, it's a domino effect no matter what happens here. Yeah.
11:15
I mean, we've been saying it all week, but I, I, I think three, four, five, that they are all major trade candidates, and that's why you're seeing some of the McCarthy odds like that, right?
11:24
'Cause that's the expectation, is that they're gonna be able, uh, Vikings gonna be able to trade up somewhere in that range. Just when I thought I was out, Kelly. Yeah, I'm, I'm probably gonna be joining you.
11:34
The trap pulled me back in. I kind of wanna see what, how the market reacts today during the a- like, during the full day with that market. Well, after that silly tweet just now, expect it to spike.
11:42
[laughs] We'll start things with the Premier League and Paul Carr next. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with the free VSiN daily newsletter. In today's newsletter, sir?
12:08
Well, we got some nuggets from Matt Youman's mock draft in there. We got predictions and picks for the NBA play-in games tonight, playoff series splits, way more. I love it. What a time of year.
12:19
Bill's late nights becomes your mornings. Visa.com/newsletter to subscribe. Human's, uh, mock draft is 1.0. Does that mean that he has a 2.0 prior to the draft? I would assume that's what it means.
12:29
Yeah, I think he usually does a few versions, yeah. Okay. Yeah. A few? Yeah, yeah. He does more than a 2.0? I don't, I don't know, man. You're testing my memory here. Sorry, apologies.
12:36
I, I wi- I coulda definitely told you in the past he's done multiple editions. I don't know how many. Again, another conversation we probably shoulda had off air- [laughs]... before we had it on air.
12:44
[laughs] Kelly, after the show we'll do a review. We'll be like, "What conversations should we have perhaps waited for?"
12:51
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, Premier League, while all this other stuff is going on, the NBA in full force, the NHL playoffs in full force. Oh, by the way, I have a tennis pick as well. Can I get a tennis pick real quick?
13:00
Sure. Uh, we hit Pedro Martinez overnight. Uh, if you want some tennis action during the show this morning, I only have one pick and that has not gone off yet, is Jan-Lennard Struff.
13:10
Jan-Lennard Struff, the German, uh, is taking on Felix Auger-Aliassime. But I wanna see if that price got away from us.
13:19
Now, see another thing that I probably should've checked beforehand, 'cause the price I got on Struff last night was plus 112, and right now Struff is at boop-boop, boop-boop, boop-boop-boop, he is at boop-da-doo minus 117.
13:35
Sorry, usually I help you out here. Uh- But I'm, uh, I'm in minute, like, five of making my own bet. Oh, no, please go ahead. [laughs] Um, I wouldn't play Struff over minus 110.
13:44
If you can find an out that has him at minus 110, I would, I would play Struff at that point. But again, CLV, what, Lord knows what that's got us in the past- Yeah... when we have it. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
13:53
And as usual, I'm always glad to hear that, uh, Pedro Martinez has continued, uh, you know- [laughs]... his, his tennis career. He, he's- So it's great to see he's picked it back up...
14:00
he's old, he's old, but apparently his tennis game on clay is fantastic, and so I bet on him to success this morning. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us from Topeka, Kansas.
14:07
He's the host of the Expected Value podcast. He works at True Media Networks spreading the analytics gospel across North American sports and your favorite teams. He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:18
It's Paul Carr, everybody. How you doing, Paulie? Morning, Gil. Thanks for the update on what Pedro Martinez is up to. Yeah. I, I didn't know either. [laughs] Yeah. It's amazing. Who knew?
14:27
It's really a second, a second life on clay, on, in 10... a different sport. It's incredible. Okay. Let me see if I can get this right, if I got this right. Man City wins last week. Mm-hmm. Liverpool and Arsenal lose.
14:39
Mm-hmm. What does that mean for the outrights in the Premier League? I mean, so City's now at, has a two-point lead over both Arsenal and Liverpool with six games left. So before the weekend, City was plus money.
14:50
I for- I wanna say close, close to plus 200, 150, 200 range. And now they're minus 250 to win the title. So Arsenal fans like your valet are, I'm sure, just they've packed up the season. They've already mailed it in.
15:05
Yeah. People j- I... We should define valet. It's not like, uh, Jerome in the time, like Morris Day. It was like, "Jerome," and Jerome comes with a mirror. It's a- Your guy...
15:12
valet who parks the cars downstairs at the, uh, at the building. Yeah. Um- Just Gil's producer, okay? [laughs] It's, uh...
15:17
[laughs] Wait, so does this mean, 'cause only as you point out, it's only a two-point lead, right? Yeah. Man City, two points over Arsenal, Liverpool.
15:23
Is that, is the reason for that being such a prohibitive favorite because of remaining schedule? Yeah. City has the easiest remaining schedule.
15:31
I think there's also a, a narrative component to this where everyone is just like, "Yep, City's finally back in first. This one's over. Arsenal's gonna collapse again, and Liverpool's injuries are getting to them."
15:42
And there's some truth to that, but I think a lot of it, again, is just the way that it happened.
15:46
Like, if, uh, say City had lost last weekend and Arsenal and Liverpool won to close the gap to two points, we'd have a totally different story of, "Uh-oh, is City gonna hang on?"
15:55
And they're looking shaky, and things like that. But just because of the way the results have lined up, and there's something to momentum and how well a team is playing, but yeah, it's only two points.
16:03
City won't run the table the rest of the way. Now, the margin for error is almost gone for Arsenal and Liverpool, which is why their odds are, I think, plus 400 and plus 500.
16:11
But this is far from over with six games left. Has Felike spiraled into depression? Is that what's happened with him as a Liverpool fan? I haven't heard from him. Yeah. So I just kind of assume so, 'cause they're
16:21
s- almost out of in the league. They went out of Europa League yesterday officially, so yeah. I, I hope Felike is okay. Okay. Um, we got two tomorrow. We got one on Sunday.
16:30
You're in a bit of a heater again, aren't you, Paul? Little bit. We're having a good run this year. We're up about nine units for, in 2024 between Premier League and Champions League here. There you go. Very nice.
16:39
All right. Yeah. Let's start with tomorrow's. What do you got? All right. We're gonna start with Brentford and Luton Town. So this is sort of a relegation battle. Luton Town's in 18th.
16:48
Brentford's in 15th, seven points ahead. But Brentford's really quite a bit better.
16:52
They're 13 ahead in goal difference, and the underlying numbers, Brentford's actually in seventh place in exte- expected goal difference, and Luton's in 19th, a difference of 34 goals.
17:02
So that's basically a long way of saying Brentford has kind of been running badly this season, and Luton's a little lucky to be where they are right now. Uh, Brentford's just a much better team.
17:10
Their attack's getting healthy. Ivan Toney should be back in the lineup for this one. And Luton's battering, battling some injuries on the back line. Uh, Brentford's unbeaten four straight.
17:19
You know, only one of those was a win, but they got decent draws against teams, you know, Manchester United, uh, et cetera, that are, you know, roughly the same level as they are.
17:27
So I like Brentford just going to Luton Town and getting a win here, plus 120. Ooh, and then a rare Paul Carr occurrence. Yeah. A second bet on the same match. What do you got? Yeah.
17:37
It's not something I normally do, but I think the, it'll, the line up, the odds and the script all line up nicely for this one. I also like the over three and a half in this game.
17:46
We talked about Luton having injuries on the back line. They've given up the second most goals in the league this season and the most expected goals.
17:53
Uh, they also give up good shots in general, and Brentford one of the most patient teams at waiting for those good shots. Uh, Luton has scored in 12 straight home games.
18:01
That helps you get there on the over, and Brentford has conceded 11 goals in their last four away games.
18:06
So I think all this adds up to me, about a 3-1 Brentford win, and, you know, this is kind of year old- Saying, I forget who says it on the show, "If you must win, you must not be very good."
18:16
And I think that's kind of where Luton Town is here. Uh, they're in the relegation battle. They need to win, but they're just not that good.
18:21
So Brentford win over three and a half to over three and a half is at minus one 40 or plus one 40. The origin of that phrase is Dr. Bob. If you are in a must- Right... win situation, you must not be that good.
18:32
Uh, and then when I quote him on that to his face, he says, "Actually, Gil, that's not exactly what I said." And then he gives a paragraph long explanation- That's right...
18:38
that is exactly the same meaning, but is not nearly a good enough nugget. And I'm like, "No, Bob, it's if a must-win situation- [laughs]... you must not be that good. Let's just go with that." All right.
18:46
Legend, not pioneer. Le- that's right. Don't call him a pioneer. [laughs] But legend apparently is acceptable. Um, okay. So Brentford win. The Brentford- Yep... win against Luton Town, which is a plus money.
18:56
And in the same game, Luton Town, Brentford over three and a half goals, which is a little more plus money. So it all fits the same script. Paulie with the rare two plays in one on a Saturday, tomorrow.
19:08
Sunday then you have another total. Yeah. This is, we've talked about it the last few weeks. You can get over two and a half in almost any Premier League game, close to even money.
19:16
I would take it, and that's what I'm doing for Everton, Nottingham Forest, over two and a half minus one 10. Now this is a relegation scrap. It's the classic six-pointer, as they say. So, sure.
19:25
Could this be a nil-nil, one-nil, everyone trying not to blow it type of game? I guess. But Forest has not been parking the bus and trying to scrape out points. The last three games have had at least four goals total.
19:37
Uh, and goals, like we said, they're just up this whole season.
19:40
3.2 per game on the whole over the course of the season, up 14% from last year, which was already the highest score in Premier League season in the last 15 years.
19:47
So we've talked through some of the reasons, but I think this will just be almost a typical Premier League game. And if you can get minus one 10 on an over two and a half, I would jump on that.
19:58
So that's what I've got here for Everton, Nottingham Forest. Yeah, this does have relegation implications. The, uh, teams that finish in the last three positions in the Premier League get relegated.
20:07
Right now, Luton Town is the top of those three teams, if you will, in 18th place with 25 points. These two teams, Everton and Nottingham Forest, have 27 and 26 respectively.
20:19
Though Nottingham Forest does have an extra game to play, I believe. So, uh, there's that. Right. But yes, definitely relegation implications here. Um, I'm gonna spring this on you.
20:27
We di- we didn't, uh, we didn't, uh, act like, you know, we didn't say we were gonna talk about this. Mm-hmm. But I'm curious, the Olympics are later this year. Mm-hmm. It's late summer, it's July. Yeah.
20:37
Um, I, I think you and I have only been together for one Olympics, and maybe that was a pandemic year also, right? Mm-hmm. Yeah. So do you get into Olympic soccer? Olympics, uh, yes, is the short answer.
20:50
On the men's side, it's a little different because it's officially a under 23 competition, and you get to pick three overage players. So who those overage players are is obviously very important. You know, the...
21:03
And, and will any big stars, even some un- under 23 guys may not get released by their clubs 'cause they don't, they're not required to by FIFA.
21:09
So, like, this week, the French president asked Real Madrid or PSG to release Kylian Mbappé for the Olympics 'cause the Olympics are in France. He's the big star. Uh, I doubt they'll do it.
21:20
But these are the X factors- Oh, wow... as you're looking at it from a betting angle. It's really hard to put any sort of money on this in advance because you just don't know who's gonna be on the team. Oh, wow.
21:30
The women is a little more straightforward and, and a little more fun because it's essentially a World Cup with all the, the major players. Everyone's there. It's just like a normal senior tournament.
21:38
So- The men's is tough... so that's really interesting. So the, so the men's side really does come down to who allows whom to play. Right.
21:45
And, and generally speaking, are the club teams like, "Oh, heck no, we're not letting you play with it. You know, we're not letting player X play." For senior stars? Yeah. Yeah, senior stars, definitely.
21:54
You might remember in 2016 when the Olympics were in Brazil, Neymar was released by his club because that was just such a big deal. But that took some negotiating, but it worked out.
22:04
Brazil ended up winning the gold medal. But that's more the exception than the rule. But that's what France is trying to get to happen. At least the president's trying to make that happen this year. All right. We'll see.
22:13
Well before the fact, but d- does the US have any chance of meddling? Any chance? Yeah. They've, you know, again, it depends a lot on who they send. They have several young stars that may or may not be on the team.
22:23
But yeah, they're, they're in a tough group with France, but, you know, they've got as good a shot. These youth tournaments can be a bit of a crapshoot. Okay. Paul Carr @paulcarr C-A-R-R on the Twitter machine.
22:33
We appreciate it, man. You bet. Have a good weekend. Thank you. All his picks, by the way, in case you miss it, vsan.com/picks. Every host, every guest on the network, no matter the sport, vsan.com/picks for subscribers.
22:45
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22:54
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23:04
You can see all the changes in the action, find out where the public's betting based on the number of tickets, where the money doesn't match the public opinion. You can juxtapose those two against each other.
23:13
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23:26
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23:34
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Biblin, live from Barcanada, The Barrage here at the D. We get tweets at Betting the Book. Kelly, trust the glove.
23:40
LeBron must have, uh, sponsored the ES- the ESPN segment all morning on him and his greatness. They only left out the kiss and the dinner. I guess they're showing a lot of LeBron.
23:50
Bill Hooker, "Schaefter using vague language about the number two pick because that's how he rolls. He's Captain Obvious." Well, you know, he's not a draft insider necessarily. Yep. Mike Stacks. That is true.
24:02
Just NFL reporter. Just NFL reporter. Mike Stacks, "I agree 100 with you on, uh, Daniels going to Washington.
24:07
This team gives me Texans vibe from la- vibes from last year, and they'll have the 13th easiest strength of schedule, uh, this coming year. Washington wins division, plus 750. Also like worst to first." Oh. [laughs] Wow.
24:20
Well, Mikey Stacks, you've gone even further than I would Teasers and parlays. Uh, didn't have the Morris Day Jerome reference on the bingo card.
24:28
I could see Kelly holding the mirror for Gil during commercial breaks so much more [laughs] than the producer. Uh, should I do the Guardians real quick here before we do NBA? [laughs] Yeah, yeah.
24:36
Uh- We actually could use a mirror. Often I just have- Oh, yeah... Matt, like Matt, like zoom in on my face if I need to, like, look at something. By the way, it's a big day at Bar Canada.
24:44
We have our sign that says, we actually have a sign that says, "Live broadcast in progress. This area not available for public use." So that will deter the riffraff right there.
24:54
Because before that, our security measure was Kelly going like this, "Stop right there." [laughs] That was our big thing at first. And that did work a couple times, though. Kelly's a Kelly. He winds up. There it is.
25:04
There's a live shot of our live broadcast in progress sign. Hey, those took a few months to design and get ready, okay? Wait, what- This is a big day... what's the, what's the QR code for?
25:13
I, I, I'm assuming it brings you right to vsin.com. Oh, you can lis- oh, um- Yeah... the leap beneath that, it's blocked- Yeah... in our shot there. It says, "Listen live now at vsin.com." There you go. Yeah.
25:21
For, for as much as we've talked about doing shows in this area, it is the, it's the, we don't blame anybody, but you get a lot of the people just wondering what we're- Yes... doing over here. That's correct.
25:31
So a lot, that's where the, the, the Kelly halt usually works. That's right. [laughs] But, yes, this makes it- There it is...
25:36
a little easier 'cause you, maybe you actually wanna listen in to hear what we're saying and watch us and stuff. Look at that. Use the QR code, go to vsin.com. All right. Guardians bet. Guardians win yesterday at Fenway.
25:47
Uh, they took the three out of four in that series against Boston. So right now, this is for those who have, uh, piled on the, uh, March, April most wins market in baseball, which I made pre-flop before the season.
25:59
And again, shout out to Circa for having this market. Most wins Major League Baseball, March and April. Remember, there was a few games to begin March. And so, uh, the Guardians win. They are now 13 and 6.
26:12
They are tied with the Yankees for the most wins in baseball. The Yankees are also 13 and 6. Uh, as you see on this graphic we will throw up right here.
26:20
I just threw in run differential and one run records just to, uh, torture myself. The real column that matters in addition to the record, obviously, and the wins, is the games left on the right.
26:31
So the Yankees have two more games to be played before the end of April. Now remember, one of the deficit of the two there for the Guardians is that they got a game taken from them by rain in Minnesota.
26:44
So that game looms large over us here. Uh, and as I like to say also, it's not enough to track the wins.
26:51
You're trying to also track which team controls its own destiny, and right now the Yankees are in the driver's seat in that category, but there are four other teams that control their destiny before the Guardians do also, which is the Braves, the Royals, the Brewers, not pictured, with 11 games, but also with two games in pocket.
27:08
Uh, and then the Orioles also would tie. We- we're just u- using a bizarro exercise if each of these teams have one out in terms of just controlling their destiny. Still a lot of games for that to, uh, play in.
27:19
But right now the Guardians 13 and 6 with the Yankees. We're looking good, but we're not as good as we can look. Um, if you're on this bet with me, we do have the, the three games against Oakland begin today.
27:30
That was obviously part of the calculus. Schedule was a huge part of this. Um, I think if, you know, let's just play it out. If they go O and three, bet's over. If they go one and two, it's probably over.
27:40
If they go two and one, we're still talking about this on Monday into the final week of the bet. And if they go three and O, which is what you're hoping for here, they probably control their own destiny at that point.
27:52
Here's what I, uh, what I also did before, just to give the anatomy of a bet. I went through every series before the, the bet started. Every series that the Guardians had, starting in March through April 30th.
28:05
And what I put on the left was, this is what I think they need to go. Here's the path, right? The predicted path is the left column, and what's actually happened is on the right column. So far, Kelly, pretty dead on.
28:19
Pretty dead on. I had them going four and O versus Oakland in the path.
28:22
They ended up going three and one, botching a game where they had first and third in the tie game in the eighth, where they ran themselves into and out. So you're already one behind the path there.
28:31
They matched on Seattle. I had them going two and one. They went two and one. Minnesota's where we lost the game. I had them going two and one at Minnesota. They went two and O instead.
28:40
Uh, one game lo- uh, one game deficit in the White Sox, projected versus actual. Then a one game deficit again, uh, in the Yankee series.
28:49
Um, umpiring had a lot to do with that in game one, but a, a great Guardians comeback, so really that was a wash. So, and then three and one is what I had projected them at Fenway, and that's exactly what they did.
28:58
So basically, the left column I was, uh, I projected 23 and 7 would win this for us. We're not gonna get 30 games, we're gonna get 29 now. So 22 and 7, I think, wins it. Right now they're 13 and 6.
29:12
Could they win it with 21 and 8? Maybe. But the mar- I, I guess the point being that the margin of error is still so slim. Still so slim. But we got a shot. I got a couple comments here.
29:24
Um, first of all, Matt, if you can retake that graphic real quick. I didn't realize that the Guardians logo- [laughs] Has two Gs, so Gil's Guardians. Gil's Guardians. That really works out really well.
29:35
I'm just borrowing them for a month, Adam Burke. You got the G wings on either side of the baseball, so Gil's Guardians works out really well.
29:42
Um- Got an email from the Giants yesterday wondering where I've been in the March of April. Oh, really? [laughs] Yeah, like, "Hey, where have you been?" Um, no, no, never mind. Yeah. [laughs] I'll be back in May.
29:50
Yeah, the other thing is, I've now gotten to the point with this where I set up, uh, score notifications on my phone for the Guardians. So- Oh, thank you... when this bet gets home, I expect a Bacon Nation- Oh...
30:00
omelet breakfast or something- Wow... like that, okay? No, I'll get a great di- I wanna read this- And don't worry, I wasn't gonna say sushi out there, people, okay? I, I- Thank you...
30:06
I'd have to do something a whole lot more for that. All I did was set up score notifications. This is from Big O ATX.
30:12
He says, "I don't, I don't get to listen to Gil, uh, as often as I used to or would like to, but after listening to the preseason pod, I find myself rooting for the Guardians every day.
30:21
Even if it doesn't come all the way home, what a bet Thank you, Big OATX. I appreciate that tweet very much.
30:27
And really, the, th- this is the reason why we put it up there, is there is something very nice about month-long bets, right? It's not like a daily, it's not like a year-long futures. Right.
30:38
It's such a sweet spot of a, of a time period, where you can really harness it. And so just to let you know, this was the calculus that went into this.
30:47
And so hopefully, again, 65 to 1 are the odds that I got it at, at Circa. Shout out to Circa for putting this up. 10 games left for the, for Los Guardianes, for those speaking in Spanish. NBA exactas, Kelly. NBA exactas.
31:02
Have you bet... You've bet a couple of these, right? I have bet a couple of these. Uh, yeah, it's fascinating.
31:06
I think it's been, we first brought it up probably, like, in December or January, just about a lot of what we- Yeah... a lot of what we did with the Niners in the NFL.
31:14
Uh, I think you have the opportunity with the Celtics here in the Eastern Conference. So I added, I, I think January was the first time I added one, and that was the Thunder with the Celtics.
31:25
Let's say I have the Celtics over the Thunder at 40 to 1. Now, these are tricky right now.
31:30
They have, I feel like since, since end of December, beginning of January, depending on shop, these have been up and down, up and down, sometimes down for multiple weeks, because I think the books are not idiots either.
31:44
They know that there's some value in tying some of these in. [laughs] They're aware of injuries. Right. Exactly. Yeah. So, um, look, I, I think we're now resetting at the playoffs.
31:53
I, I, I thought they were interesting to look at, especially if you, if you're watching at home, you can see how the Celtics are involved in, uh- Yes...
31:59
what is that, seven different combinations at the t- uh, just to start? Eight? Eight. Nine. Nine. Nine. Before we get to Nuggets- That's right... over at Sixers.
32:07
So, uh, I did put in one recently, you see, uh, if you're watching at home, you see Mavericks over Celtics at 30 to 1. I found a 40 to 1 here in town. Uh, Gil, I did add that.
32:18
The problem was the Celtics over the Mavericks, which you would like to do, th- g- 'cause you should be thinking you're gonna be able to get, uh, you know, a little bit of p- plus money on a series price, right, if you hit the finals with whatever Western Conference opponent it is.
32:32
Um, ideally, you wanna bet the Celtics one, if not, if you're not betting both. But the Celtics over the Mavericks was, like, 20 to 1. 20 to 1 when I just bet a Mavericks outright at, like, 19 to 1.
32:42
So that didn't make w- uh, much sense to me to add that one as well. So I did those. But I, I, I do, I do think shop around.
32:50
I think this is the, uh, the perfect example of, uh, like I bring this up with golf a lot, of the Scottie Scheffler. Like, you could bet the outright markets, but compare them to the winner without markets. Yeah.
32:59
If you're digging into futures, uh, for the NBA at this time, this time of year, I, I, uh, or to win it, at least to win the NBA Finals, I would be comparing some of the prices to these exactas as well, as well.
33:10
If someone came to you today and said, "Oh, this is great, Kelly. I like this. I want to bet an exacta, but here's what I'm gonna do.
33:14
I'm put one unit on Celtics over Nuggets, and another unit on Nuggets over Celtics, five to one and plus 650," what would you say to them? I, I, I don't think it's a bad bet. That's why I bring it up.
33:25
Yeah, I don't think that's a bad bet. And I feel like Gil's gonna do it. [laughs] You just kind of... What's that? I feel like Gil's gonna do that. [laughs] I feel like he might.
33:33
It's like we're talking about him like he's not here. Yeah. Oh, that's me. Uh, we'll come back. Nick Whelan on all the NBA series and these, uh, elimination games tonight. That's next.
33:41
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:59
From the play-in tournament through the finals, DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered with same-game parlays, live betting, odds boosts, and so much more. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app, use code VSIN.
34:08
New customers bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code V-S-I-N. Only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
34:18
Uh, we got this, uh, tweet from, by the way, Topher Baron has, uh, has decided to, uh, bet some tennis, and I think it's going well for him this morning. Good for you, Topher. Hope it works out.
34:27
Jason H11, "When the Ginger Ninja puts the hand up, step back." He's talking about what I was talking about before we had this sign. [laughs] Our big security was Kelly going- Halt... with his hand. Halt.
34:38
Uh, and he called you the Ginger Ninja. And I, can I just shout you out for people?
34:41
Uh, people who are with us every morning and see you on camera, much like I see you in person, it, uh, we don't notice it because we're with you every day. Mm-hmm. 'Cause it's imperceptible.
34:50
But you have lost how much weight? About 30 pounds since middle of December. Good for you, man. I'd like to say thanks, but I'd also like to shout out the pharmaceutical companies out there. Sure.
35:01
'Cause, uh, yeah, the, uh... Yeah, I'm on the old Wegovy right now, and it's, uh, it's working quite well. It's working quite well.
35:06
So, so I will not be seeing you, like r- like running Forrest Gump style through Las Vegas. Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah. That's not what's happening.
35:10
What I like to tell people is if you watch Always Sunny with Philadelphia, the, uh, if you know the scene where Mac is just injecting himself with insulin while eating a big burrito, that's kind of like me still.
35:20
Like, yes, the, uh, yes, the exercise has increased. I'm eating a little better. Yeah. But oh boy, do drugs, drugs help. That's for sure. Good for you, man. Thanks. I appreciate it. How do you feel? You feel better?
35:29
[laughs] We were laughing about that earlier. Do you feel, do you feel better? I've never been one of those people, like, people lose the five pounds and they're like, "I feel so much better.
35:38
I've got so much more energy." I'm like, I, I feel exactly the same. Good for you, man. I drink, like, a pot of coffee every day. Keep on going, as they say, right? Always got energy, right? You have a goal weight?
35:46
Do you have a goal weight? No? No? Yeah, a lot more. Okay, a lot more. [laughs] Uh, this man has never had a weight problem, I'm guessing.
35:52
Uh, from RotoWire, it's our buddy Nick Whelan, who you can follow on Twitter, one of the, uh, great Twitter handles. Uh, it's Whelan, but he replaces the L with a one.
36:01
Uh, senior analyst at RotoWire and a host, of course, at SiriusXM NBA, joins us to talk NBA playoffs. It's your time of year, Nick. How you doing, man? I'm doing well, guys. I'm doing well, man.
36:12
This is, this is one of the best sports weekends on the calendar. I, I always say that. And I, I think you have to be pretty in the weeds in the NBA to, to put this on your Mount Rushmore.
36:20
Obviously, there are a lot of other candidates. But the, that opening weekend of the playoffs where you get four games back to back to back to back Saturday, same thing on Sunday.
36:29
Uh, and especially this year, guys, where it- It doesn't feel like we have, you know, that, that series that you just don't wanna pay attention to, right?
36:35
You know, maybe, maybe if the Bulls end up beating the Heat tonight and we get Bulls-Celtics in round one, yeah, you could probably skip that one. I, I know a lot of people would point to Cavs-Magic.
36:43
You know, maybe it won't be the most exciting series, but I think it's gonna be really competitive. We, we have so much parity in both conferences. So I'm, I'm really, really excited to get these playoffs going.
36:51
Yeah, to your point, I usually say, I mean, the r- the first round is interminable. Do we really need a best of seven? But this comes to our, from our buddy Blake over at sportoddshistory.com.
37:01
He said, "This year, there are five first round NBA series prices where the favorite is less than -200. Going back to 1988, the previous most was three series done seven times.
37:13
We still need two more series prices, but this would be the lowest average price for the favorite for a first round on record." So there you go. Wow. Quantifying it there, and obviously he's right.
37:23
We don't have two series prices. Let's start before we get to the ones that are intact. Anything in the elimination games tonight?
37:30
Yeah, I, I got a few spots here, and, and, you know, I think the headliner for both games, unfortunately, is, is the injuries, right? No Jimmy Butler for Miami, and no Zion Williamson for New Orleans.
37:41
So I, I think that makes this a, a more difficult evaluation.
37:44
We'll have to wait and see on Alex Caruso, who th- there seems to be a little bit more optimism that he'll be able to go now, uh, as opposed to, uh, 24 hours ago. But he's gonna end up being a game time call.
37:54
I think without Jimmy Butler, the Bulls, we have to acknowledge it. They have a real chance here, right? They looked impressive the other night against Atlanta, but I still think I would take Miami to win this game.
38:03
They are one-and-a-half point favorites at home tonight. We have to keep in mind Chicago shot 57% from the field the other night. They got a, an all-time game out of Coby White. They had two other starters score 20 plus.
38:13
They had Ayo Dosunmu have one of his best scoring and efficiency games of the entire season, and it was still a relatively close game, right?
38:20
It's like if Atlanta gets a, a marginally better effort out of Trae Young, there's a chance that they still could have stolen that.
38:24
So I, I do kinda look at Wednesday night as almost a best case scenario for Chicago, and now you're going up against a significantly more difficult opponent on the defensive end especially.
38:34
Mi- Miami was number two in defense over the final 15 games of the regular season. So I do think there might be a course correction coming tonight for the Chicago Bulls.
38:43
On the prop side of things, I like Tyler Herro over three and a half threes. I, I don't know if I'm gonna take his points prop all the way up to 25 and a half. Obviously, he took a ton of shots the other night.
38:52
You remove Jimmy Butler, you think that volume should sustain. Chicago has given up a ton of threes all season long.
38:58
They, they've done a decent job of defending them, but in terms of volume, you know, on the year they've been number one in the NBA in terms of three-point attempts allowed to opponents.
39:05
So I like Herro over three and a half made threes tonight, and I'm also looking at Bam Adebayo over 32 and a half points plus rebounds.
39:12
Wasn't good the other night, uh, against Philly, but this should be a much better match up for Bam, who went well over this number in both of his match ups against Chicago earlier this season.
39:21
He did miss two of their four games. And keep in mind, guys, these teams have not played each other somehow since mid-December.
39:26
They played four times in the span of less than a month early in the year, so th- there is a little bit of unfamili- unfamiliarity there, I should say. Uh, and then in the, the Pelicans-Kings game,
39:37
I, I, I still think New Orleans has a chance here. We can't completely write them off without Zion, but I think we'll know pretty early, right?
39:42
We're, we're gonna know, all right, is, is the Zion injury just completely taking the wind out of their sails?
39:47
And a lot of it's gonna come down to does Brandon Ingram look remotely like himself, which he did not the other night against the Lakers.
39:52
He did not against the Lakers in game 82 of the regular season when he came back from injury. I'm staying away from Brandon Ingram props. I'm looking at Trey Murphy over three and a half threes.
40:02
You're getting that at plus 100 tonight. He's gone over this number in 12 of his last 25 games, which is pretty good for a part-time starter. And, you know, you're taking Zion Williamson out of the mix.
40:11
He had a 40% usage rate the other night, guys. That was his second highest in any game this season. So there will be shots available for guys like Trey Murphy.
40:19
Toying with the idea of maybe buying low on CJ McCollum after that terrible game on Tuesday. You can get his points prop at 23 and a half tonight. It's so tough, because he, he looked terrible against the Lakers.
40:29
But prior to that game, he'd averaged 27 points per game in his last 13. And again, you know, you take Zion Williamson out of the mix, you think some of those shots trickle down to CJ McCollum.
40:39
And lastly, guys, one sneaky spot I'm looking at tonight over at DraftKings, you know, this Valanciunas double double is plus 135.
40:47
Now, if you follow the Pelicans, you know Valanciunas' minutes have been all over the place.
40:51
You know, they've kinda taken him out of the rotation at times, but he played a season high 33 minutes against Sacramento when they met just over a week ago, his most, uh, in any game this season.
41:00
Of course, he has a double double in all five match ups, uh, against the Sacramento Kings this season. And as you know, the Pelicans are 5-0 in those match ups.
41:08
And the Heat, by the way, 13 and nine straight up without Jimmy Butler this year, should be pointed out as well.
41:15
Uh, normally, Nick, I would, uh, go one by one through each of the six, uh, uh, series that are intact already and that we know, uh, are starting this weekend.
41:23
Uh, four already, uh, scheduled for tomorrow and two on a Sunday. Obviously, that will be filled up on Sunday by the end of tonight. W- w- without...
41:34
In the interest of time, instead of going one by one, you tell me what your favorite ones are here, either in terms of a series price or in a game one play.
41:43
You know, in terms of series price, guys, uh, the one that I, I feel like I'm starting to zag on a little bit, because everybody I, I talked to and, and listened to seems to be, uh, you know, on the Philadelphia 76ers.
41:53
I'm backing the New York Knicks in round one to win the series. It's, it's now minus 110 either way. And, you know, I understand why Philly opened as a favorite, but do we really trust Joel Embiid? I, I'm not sure I do.
42:05
I don't think Joel Embiid looked like himself, uh, the other night in that win over Miami. I thought he looked completely winded. He looked completely tired. That knee didn't look quite right in the second half.
42:14
And e- even if you take that concern out of it, guys, at what point in Joel Embiid's career has he ever played remotely close to an MVP level in the postseason, right?
42:23
I think it was two years ago he averaged like 10 fewer points per game in the postseason compared to the regular season.
42:28
I think the way that officiating has changed throughout the season, I don't think that benefits Joel Embiid.
42:32
I think he's still gonna get more calls than anybody, but he's not gonna get the same type of calls he was when he was at his peak and healthy earlier this year. I know there's no Julius Randle for the New York Knicks.
42:41
I don't know if that's that big of a deal, especially in round one.
42:44
It's like, yeah, maybe that, that hurts their ceiling a little bit, but they've been just fine without Julius Randle, who also, by the way, has not been a very good playoff performer throughout his career.
42:52
So I know everybody just wants to say, "All right, Philly, they're, they're a dangerous seven seed. They, you know, they're, they're probably more like a two or a three seed at heart."
42:59
I think the Knicks win this series, guys. What were you just telling me off air?
43:03
That, that I don't think there are, I, I don't think there are enough people in the NBA community, and even betting community, making enough of what they saw out of Joel Embiid the other night. Yep.
43:11
And Nick, I completely agree with you. I mean, I've got 76ers futures in pocket, but I am loaded up pretty heavy on the Knicks side in game one.
43:19
Um, and maybe Joel Embiid returns, you know, gets back to form middle of the series. I could see that happening. Uh, as of right now, though, we're heading into game one, I c- completely co-sign everything you just said.
43:31
Well, the other thing with Philly, guys, is they don't really have a third option, right? I mean, I, I guess it's supposed to be Tobias Harris, but he was terrible the other night, right? It's like- Yeah...
43:38
De'Anthony Melton's been banged up. He's just not really a part of the mix right now. They got bailed out by Nick Batum.
43:43
Like, they don't win that game u- unless Nick Batum plays the way he did the other night against Miami. And, and the Heat didn't even play well, right?
43:49
It's like Philly was a- I think in a lot of ways lucky to win that game. And you, you just, you can't depend on Nick Batum to be your third guy in a series like this.
43:56
And, you know, the Knicks don't have a ton of depth, but I don't think that matters in the playoffs. They're, they're really gonna play six, six and a half guys who play really well together. So I'm...
44:04
I, I think people are gonna be surprised when the New York Knicks get off to a good start in this series. I need a five-second answer, Nick. Who's in the finals? I'm gonna cop out and say Denver, Boston, guys. Oh.
44:14
But Dallas is the team that I'm keeping an eye on to knock 'em off. That seems to be very consensus NBA expert thought right there. Thank you, Nick. Appreciate it. Great seeing you, man. Hey, anytime, guys.
44:23
Enjoy the weekend. Nick Whelan from Roto Wire. How about some UFL next with our own Stormy Bonatony? That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
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