Transcript 0:00 The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you. 0:10 This is the Numbers Game on VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. 0:17 We don't care how you're taking us in, we just appreciate that you're doing it one way or the other. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy. How you doing, man? Doing great. How are you? 0:26 Um, I got- I guess had better days. [laughs] I have, I have NFL rule change fever- Yeah... which we'll get, which we'll get to in a moment. 0:33 Uh, Will Hill on the show momentarily, talk about the Final Four, everything else he's betting. Mark Borchert, base winner, on baseball. Uh, looking forward to that, always look forward to his segments. 0:42 Paul Carr back on the show, moving the chains forward in your betting accounts in soccer. What, is he coming off a couple sweeps in the Premier League? Is that true? I believe so. 0:51 This is, like, his, uh, i- i- most extended hiatus in I don't know how long, because soc- soccer will be like, "Why are you playing three tournaments on top of each other in leagues?" 1:00 And then they take, like, three weeks off. I think he's on fire. Uh, Drew Dincic, hour number two, which is his new time slot here on the show, uh, 'cause Drew's got other things to do. He's got other things to do. 1:09 Um, before we get to all those guests, well, one, I do wanna talk about the NFL, NFL rule changes real quick, the ones that have been approved this morning. 1:17 The first one that went down is overtime approved, where they are now going to match regular season overtime rules with that of the postseason, which means that you will g- that each team will get a possession no matter what now, at least this is how they've couched it, right? 1:35 Um, before it was over if you scored a touchdown in the regular season on the first possession, and it was Katie bar the door. But now it's each team will get a possession, but it's still a 10-minute overtime period. 1:46 So explain that to me. Gosh. [laughs] What if, what if a team has a seven-and-a-half or eight-minute possession, then the other team is forced to go into a two-minute offense? Yeah. Is that how that works? Yeah. 1:55 Yeah, I heard Da- Dave Ross bring it up, too, and by the books, uh, it's a great point. If you're... 1:59 I, I'm okay, I, I, I'm, I'm for this, allowing both teams to, the opportunity to have the ball, but 10 minutes is st- that's still been an issue. That's been an issue already. 2:08 Some, some of those Jayden Daniels drives where it just went on forever- Yeah... like 18 plays. What ha- what happens if you use all 10 minutes? Or just score at the b- I mean, or if you- Or you score at the buzzer. 2:19 Score at the buzzer, well- You get to kick the field goal at the buzzer. Uh, then you win We have to look forward to this. Then you win. 2:22 Uh, the other one that just got approved, so, so question- So you can still tie, though, too, right? Like, that can still happen. Well, questions abound, in other words, on that one. 2:30 The, the other one that just got passed, expanded replay assist also approved. Now, what does that mean? Replay assist, um, league owners approved a proposal to expand the use of replay assists. 2:41 Um, the proposal calls for adding fouls for hits on a defenseless player, grabbing the face mask. Remember, you couldn't, it, it didn't apply to that before. 2:51 Performing a horse collar tackle, tripping, and running into or roughing the kicker to be covered by the process. 2:57 Replay assist will now be able to be used to pick up flags thrown for those infractions, as long as there's clear evidence on video that on-field officials erred by calling it in the first place, and the change does not allow for flags to be thrown, though. 3:10 Uh, so similarly clear evidence of an uncalled face mask or horse collar tackle will not result in a penalty. Um, still to come, and the ones I'm most looking forward to, and these are two Detroit Lions proposals. 3:24 One, that, um, playoff seeding be completely rejiggered. They want it to be, the Lions proposal was, it, or is, s- uh, to go with just the record mattering. 3:37 So in, in essence, they would throw out divisions in respect to, to playoff seeding. 3:43 Now, the Lions finished first in the NFC North last year, and remember, it was the Vikings in that very highly competitive division that ended up getting the booby prize of getting knocked all the way down to, what it was, the fifth seeding, I believe? 3:54 Mm-hmm. Number five seed. 3:55 Um, but the Lions perhaps anticipating that this division will be competitive for, for years to come, I don't know, I don't know what their motivation is there, decided they wanted to pro- propose that. 4:05 I am not for that. I am not for that one at all. Really, let's stop- I don't really know why you have divisions if you do that. Yeah, let's stop ruining regular seasons in sports. How about that? 4:13 And the other, the other Detroit Lions, uh, proposal has to do with, and this is very, like, sort of selfishly motivated if you, if you look at, um, if you look at their history. 4:24 The Lions, the Lions are the team that has the most, um, the, the, basically the proposal is the Lions wanna get rid of automatic first downs for defensive holding and illegal contact penalties. Uh, why, you might ask? 4:39 Well, the Lions, number one in both of those categories. [laughs] By far, by the way. Uh- So we'll see. We'll see if those two, you know, what happens with those two. But it's, it's, it's rule change day in the NFL. 4:50 Rule change day, yep. A lot of powerful people down at The Breakers in Palm Beach, Florida, just, uh- Oh... battling out the future of the NFL, Gil. 4:58 [laughs] Some of these, though, are like, why do you, why, why do we do, why do we want the seeding changed? Stop that. Nobody dis- nobody hates that, right? I know. Are we... 5:05 I, I don't, what about the automatic first down thing? 5:08 Like, I feel, I'm okay if you get rid of that, but then I feel like you have to lengthen the yardage for the penalties, too, 'cause they're just, like, the five yards automatic first down. 5:16 The biggest betting story yesterday, at least the March 31st edition of a, of a big betting story, had to do with this college basketball crown tournament, uh, yesterday. Did you see this? Yeah. 5:26 First of all, we had Wes Reynolds on the show yesterday. We talked about it. He hit his bet, by the way, that he gave out. 5:30 Nebraska, uh, with a late rally, ends up covering in their, uh, college basketball crown game, one of the, uh, four games played yesterday, which all soared over their totals, by the way. 5:41 If there's a betting angle on this, and it's almost like a brain-dead bet, just go over on all these, 'cause defense is not at a premium, at least f- first four games, second four games in the, uh, round of 16, if you will. 5:52 The opening round is today here at the MGM Garden Arena in Vegas. But the controversy surrounded the fact that we had books in certain jurisdictions, and by the way, let me defend the books on this a little bit. 6:05 They had no reason, I don't believe, and they clearly didn't believe, to think that they needed to run this by gaming in those respective jurisdictions to get approval on whether they could take bets for this tournament. 6:17 After all, their thinking was probably, "Hey, college basketball is college basketball, right? We can debate, you know, the whole thing as whether or not we wanna watch DePaul play in April. That's another subject." 6:28 But they figured from a, from a, you know, taking bets standpoint that they didn't have to seek approval for this. Well, turns out in multiple jurisdictions they did. 6:36 And so, uh, folks who had had bets on these games, on this, on these tournament games, the College Basketball Crown, which is a, again, for those who missed it yesterday, we talked about this, this is a Fox creation. 6:50 Fox sort of left out of, of the March Madness, um, not sort of, but completely left out of the March Madness broadcast rights. 6:57 So they decided Big East, Big 12, Big 10, the three conferences that they have their claws in in terms of a TV contract, uh, those teams from those three conferences that didn't make the big dance, they were gonna try to lure into this other tournament. 7:11 And by the way, only one team from those three conferences ended up in the NIT. This is really a usurping of the NIT. Anyway, um, so, so folks who had, uh, made this, um, who had made bets in this tournament 7:27 for, you know, and had them on the books for a week now, it's close to a week, they, um- Those games were up for a week? Well, five days, something like that. Wow, okay. So they had these bets in their accounts. 7:39 You know, some people made them yesterday. They had the bets in the account, whatever. Come to find out, uh, they all got voided. They all got voided. 7:47 And so while I understand the book's perspective on that, the books had no reason to believe they should run it through gaming, uh, there is to me a bit of... 7:57 I, I guess the, the, where it, where it gets dicey for me is this: if the game finished, and this is unclear to me, right? Because some folks on Twitter are saying, "Hey, I looked at my account and the bet was voided." 8:10 And the first game, by the way, was Utah versus Butler yesterday. Butler won by two points. They won on a bucket with three seconds left. They looked at their account and it was voided. 8:19 Let's say they had won the bet, right? They had, they had Butler on the money line, whatever the bet was. They, they, they figured they had won it, and it said it was voided. 8:26 It is unclear to me if all of the bets were voided prior to the end of that game, before the game, or after in some cases. 8:34 If it's after, and I don't have a clear reading on this, because you can't really trust everybody on Twitter, I don't know if you know that. Especially today. Um, especially today, on April 1st, that's right. 8:45 If it's after the game is complete, then I start to have a problem with it, because then it gets into, okay, what gaming rule trumps the other gaming rule? Right? 8:54 Does, does your, uh, does your authority to not accept the bet in the first place trump the fact that the books did in fact have the bet, and then the game went to its fruition, and now you're s- now you are retroactively adjudicating the result based on the fact that you said it shouldn't have been taken in the first place? 9:16 That's where it gets dicey to me. It sucks. I hear, I hear what you're talking about. I think that it's... I, I mean, I think one clearly trumps the other, though, right? If it, if it's, if it's not legal, right? 9:26 'Cause it, that's where it becomes legal, right? 9:28 A- a- where the states are saying, "This has not been passed, but through our gaming boards, it's not legal for you to be booking that action, then you gotta void everything." I think 9:38 what you're talking about, I don't, I don't know that- I get, I get that, Kelly. 9:41 But if the thing runs its course, I'm just saying, then, then it, it basically tells the bettor, "Um, nothing is, nothing is legit until we decide it's legit." There has to be some line where it's in the bettor's favor. 9:58 [laughs] No, like, you're right on that, but that's where this is such a screw-up, because this should've been handled before- Of course... before it. Absolutely it should've been. 10:06 You would think, I would hope if that did happen to any bettors, like, do you, did you see that? Like, any games finishing in bets? Yeah, you couldn't really tell- Okay... from Twitter, right? 10:14 Because some people were like, "Look, here's the final score," and it says voided. But I don't know if it was still in their accounts. 10:19 I mean, this is one of those I'd hope, like, especially the big companies out there would like, be like, "Hey, here's a little promo offer or something, you know- Yeah... 10:27 you, since we had to void your bet and it already got home." Yeah. I mean, even if, even if you made the bet, I, I mean, it's, it's on the books and the state, right? 10:35 [laughs] 'Cause the books shouldn't have been posting without being 100% sure, uh, sure that they could post these bets. I don't really, I mean, I don't really blame the books for assuming. 10:44 I don't blame them either- I really don't... for assuming, but- Yeah... somebody's responsible for that. You know what they say about assuming, Kelly. I also don't know how that process works. 10:51 Like, do the books have to check in with the state every, before every NFL season and be like, "By the way, once again, we're gonna be posting NFL games"? No, no. 10:58 But for anything that is new and different that they haven't done before, they do. Like a brand-new tournament. Right. But, but a brand-new tournament in a sport that they've always booked is a different story. 11:11 That's, yes. That's where, that's where I, yeah, I'm with you. I don't, I blame them for assuming. Yeah. 11:16 Anyway, again, if there's any betting angle on this, and I don't know that there is a betting angle, but all four went over quite easily yesterday, no matter the number you had it at. 11:25 Um, and as far as whether this tournament will exist in subsequent years, I don't know, 'cause I'll just tell you that I could've walked across the street. I had nothing better to do. 11:35 Didn't occur to me to even go and watch, and I'm not sure, so sure how many people were watching on TV, which is the ultimate, uh, decider on that. The broadcast ratings will be the ultimate determinant. We'll come back. 11:46 Uh, more on college hoops and baseball next. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Want to bet smarter? Start with smarter insights. 12:03 Right now, you can check out Greg Peterson's best bets in college basketball and Major League Baseball, Jonathan Davis on Alex Ovechkin's Gretzky chase, and Nigel Seeley's Premier League best bets. 12:12 And later today, you can check out Zack Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Adam Burke's MLB best bets, and Wes Reynolds' Texas Open preview. 12:19 To get access to all the articles and betting guides on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for as little as $9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. 12:28 We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. 12:30 Todd Chrysostomo, hope I said that right, @ToddQSports, "I made a bet on Nebraska after Wes said it on your show yesterday that, uh, Arizona State had seven players. 12:40 I made the bet in Connecticut and it was paid out a winner." Some jurisdictions did not apply to. Correct. Yeah. Others, like New Jersey, um, it did apply to. 12:49 J&J Watering Hole, "DraftKings Indiana honored the bet and paid Nebraska minus five and a half. Kept thinking they would void, but did not." Again, certain jurisdictions, yes. Sean Maher, "You know, I'm in New Jersey. 12:59 I made a bet in New Jersey on Arizona State at 10:43 AM. I checked right after the game started, and it was already voided." See, that I don't have as much of a problem. Mm. Right? Okay. 13:09 As long as it doesn't, as long as it doesn't play out. Um, let's see here. This is from Moneyline Marv, "Happy April 1st. 13:16 Spring is in the air, and the Dodgers and Lakers Moneyline parlay season is off [laughs] to a great start." 13:21 Um, Norm in Vegas, "Free tickets for the crowd basketball were available on seat filler services like House seats for yesterday and today." Um, DraftKings did take this from Jay Feeser. 13:32 DraftKings did take them down in Indiana, but they did not void them if you placed them. Indiana was not part of that. Um, and on and on. We'll get to more of these. I wanna get to Will first. 13:40 But, um, that thing about the Dodgers that he just mentioned, so the Dodgers yesterday, Dodgers are now 6 and 0. The Dodgers against the Atlanta Braves yesterday got up to a minus 250 favorite. 13:52 So game six of the Dodgers' season, without Freddie Freeman in the lineup, the Dodgers ended up a minus 250 pre-flop favorite. Again, and I get it, the Braves haven't won a game. They're 0 and 5. 14:04 But they are still, before the season started, roughly considered to be the second-best team in the National League. 14:10 And by game six of the Dodgers' season, game five of the Braves' season, they got to as high as a minus 250 favorite. We're showing a minus 225 consensus. 14:19 Which begs the question, Kelly, by the time the Dodgers play the Marlins later this month, or even the Rockies before that, what are some of these individual game prices gonna be? And by the way, here's just a real... 14:32 Before we get to Will, here's just a real brief snapshot. 24 games between the years 2005 and 2022, working on the '23 and '24, by the way. 14:43 But between 2005 and 2022, there were 24 total games in Major League Baseball with lines that were higher than minus 400, individual game lines. 14:54 Heavily weighted to recency, remember, with the ever-increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots, and the single biggest one between those years was the Astros minus 521 in a game in the year 2019. 15:06 What will the Dodgers get to? By the way, the other thing you can notice is only one of these games, of these 24 games between the years 2005 and 2022 that fill into this subset, occurred in the month of April. 15:18 Only one actually occurred before the month of June, and that was a Yankees game in 2021. What will the Dodgers have? Will they have multiple of those this ye- this April? Yes. That's how far we've gotten. 15:30 Your, your [laughs] answer is that yes. I'm gonna say yes already. Yeah. Yes. Yes. If they keep winning, for sure. Will Hill joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @NotTheWillHill. 15:40 The host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast. What's happening, Will? Gilly, Kelly, what's going on? Thanks for having me. Uh, y- you allude to this all the time, this group chat that you, you, me, [clears throat] 15:51 uh, Fez, Bear, uh, are all in with Wishnev, and if anyone wants a, a peek into how exciting it is, about midnight on Saturday, we were debating the line on a Royals-Yankees game from 2018. [laughs] God. 16:02 Todd Wishnev swore he got, what, plus 475 or plus 500. He swore the Yankees were s- were like a $6 favorite. We, we said he, they weren't, so we went back and forth. So very, uh, very exciting stuff in the group chat. 16:14 We are very specific human beings. [laughs] We're like, "How many people do you think are debating this at this hour?" Um, okay, let me just start with the, with the crown real quick. 16:22 We only have to give 30 seconds to this. Are you betting these overs blindly? Is that what you're doing? No, I kind of missed the b- I am today, so- Okay... 16:30 better late than never, or, uh, you know, j- or I'm just late to the party and I'll find out. But I, I, I felt a little FOMO with all these overs coming through, so I- I am in on the action today. I don't know. 16:40 We were, we were talking about this yesterday. It's just a little college basketball now. It's, it's April. I mean, for me- I'm with you... to get like DePaul basketball in April, uh, it is a tough one. 16:49 It's just we're, we're conditioned to certain sports and certain times, and once you've played the Elite Eight, baseball season's underway, I, I mean, I haven't thought about Nebraska basketball in like- [laughs]... 16:58 forever. So I'm just, I don't know. I wasn't into it. 17:00 But look, betting's betting, money's money, and the fact that, you know what, you have the angle of these teams aren't gonna care, it's gonna be fun, happy, fast, uh, fast and loose, uh, action here, and you play the overs, it makes sense, and it's come through at least before games here. 17:12 So- Yeah, I should p- I'm, I'm in today. Are you in today? I'm, I'm in today. I was in yesterday, too. Good. I, I didn't watch a single second of it. I, I will say this, though. 17:18 The Georgetown thing last night, I don't know what you are lifetime on this kind of intel stuff- Yeah... 17:23 but right before the Georgetown game last night, uh, against Wazzu, Georgetown, they, they came out, Georgetown hoops came out and said, "Yeah, we, we got a bunch of folk, bunch of, bunch of players who can't really go." 17:35 Um, I don't know, Vegas flu, whatever it was. Who knows what the reason was. And so the line immediately steamed towards the Wazzu side. Of course, Georgetown won. 17:43 I think lifetime, I'm probably one in, oh, 15 bajillion in those kind of plays. It just never works out. Yeah, I think you're better than me, because I'm with you. It just never seems to work out. 17:55 And I think we do have this, at least I have this as betters, there's like this fetish of not only you wanna win, but you wanna- You wanna kind of screw over the books. 18:01 You wanna win with information that you beat 'em to the punch too. There's extra satisfaction when you can win that way. It's just, it, it never seems to work out. I'm totally with you. 18:08 All right, let's get to your plays here. Let's start with the Final Four. Did you make any play in either game? Uh, I haven't bet either one yet. Hmm. Um, I, I think the one more interesting is Duke. 18:17 It does feel like Duke is this year's UConn, where, boy, that number's a little high. Five, five and a half against Houston. Um, uh, you, you can't make it that high. 18:27 I know a lot of the services have it more like two, two and a half, but okay. It, it's similar to the Dodgers. Okay, s- bet against Duke. Have, have fun with that, where they're just so good. 18:36 I mean, Flagg is the best player. Uh, Malachow is just incredible around the rim. I think it gave them a little extra gear maybe to play without Flagg in the ACC tournament. Some of these other guys stepped up. 18:45 I mean, they've got just pros all over the place. I think Scheyer is an underrated coach. To hold Alabama to 65 points, 8 for 32 from three, that is not easy, and it's just, uh, i- it's UConn all over again. 18:57 Remember UConn-Purdue last year, that number got up, like, seven, seven and a half, and a lot of sharp p- again, that, that number's just too high. I remember UConn verse Illinois in the Elite Eight got up to nine. 19:07 It's like, no way it should be nine. All the numbers that have, you know, been way lower, it's just, okay. Uh, bet against them and have fun, and let me know how that goes. 19:15 So, I, I think the whistle's gonna be very important here, 'cause if you let Houston play football and you let these guys maul each other, Houston will have a chance. 19:24 If you're calling these touch fouls, that obviously favors Duke. The game is played in Texas. I, I don't know how much that matters. Uh, I know Fezz is making the point that, you know, it's, it's a home game for Houston. 19:33 I don't, I'm... With the ticket allotment, I, I'm not sure that that matters as much as previous rounds. Like, Auburn clearly had a home court advantage in the, uh, in, in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. 19:41 So if I had to bet it, I would bet Duke. A- and the other one, again, it feels a little bit inflated. It feels like Auburn-Florida is kind of a toss-up, and you're just... 19:50 It feels like you're paying a tax just in general for these favorites, 'cause these books are getting killed with these money line parlays. But I, I would pick Florida to win, just because who knows? 19:58 It's kind of a free-for-all, where if Broome is somewhat compromised, major edge to Florida. Florida is just so deep, the guards, the shooting. Now, this is twice they probably should've been out in the tournament. 20:09 UConn had 'em down six or so points. I know. Couldn't quite finish 'em. Texas Tech, they're, I mean, that's a, that's an all-timer. That's Arizona-Illinois 2005 all over again. 20:18 They, they really let that game get away, uh, quickly. Now, some of it was Florida's shot-making, but, um, I would pick Florida to win. I just think Florida's slightly better, slightly deeper, but look, two games left. 20:29 These, these lines are, are fairly sharp here. It's not like, you know, uh, we're sitting here on a Saturday at college basketball. There's 150 games and, you know, an Ivy League game is a couple points off. 20:39 These numbers are right around where they're supposed to be, obviously. What do you got in baseball today? Yeah, I'm, I'm fading the Dodgers. I'm not fading them against the, the money line, though. 20:48 I'm gonna go Sail over five and a half strikeouts. Uh, the Dodgers, for all of their greatness, have still been somewhat strikeout-prone. Last year, 19th most strikeouts per game in terms of rate. 20:57 This year they're already 8.3 strikeouts per game. Bottom half of the league. Sail's built up already, where he, I think he's gonna be able to throw just about a full allotment of pitches, 90, 95 pitches tonight. 21:08 So I, I think he could go over five and a half. You know, I did play Arizona on the money line, Corbin Burges against Will Warren. 21:14 We'll see, uh, we'll see if the torpedo bats, which have been the story of baseball here the first three or four days, uh, can cool off. I just, I'll go with the pitching advantage. Warren was awful last year. 21:22 He was awful in spring. Uh, pretty good lineup for Arizona, and a major advantage in terms of the starting pitching. 21:28 I can understand if you wanna go first five and pay a little extra to really isolate your handicap and go that way. I, I would understand that too. 21:34 I know we say we're not supposed to overreact the first, uh, stretch of baseball here, um, but I'm a big fan of overreacting sometimes. And in Sacramento, 18 to three Cubs yesterday against the Athletics. 21:46 Um, eight doubles combined, one triple, five homers. I'm curious. By the way, the total today, eight and a half, so it didn't really adjust much, if at all. 21:57 I'm curious, is this one of those things where we'll never see this number again, or do you just view it as one game, maybe it was just bad pitching, or do you jump all over it right now, and you're like, "Okay, let's, let's take advantage of this while it's here"? 22:11 I like Steele and Severino, but I, I think it could be a thing. It's definitely something to watch, and I think it could be a thing, would be my short answer. Yeah. 22:17 I'm, I'm li- i- as long as I'm doing brain-dead overs in the crown- Yeah... maybe I'm doing a brain-dead over in Sacramento as well. Um- It's so fun to have it back. That is my official take, though. 22:26 It is so fun to have this back. There's so much to bet all day, every day. It's just, it's the best. It's awesome. And then full-day baseball tomorrow, so we get that finally. Uh, Will, always a pleasure, man. 22:35 Shoulda Bet More is the name of the podcast. He's on Bare Bets Pods, and of course, the Megapod as well. Thank you, sir. All right, see you guys. Thanks. Will Hill, everybody. 22:42 And we managed not to talk about White Lotus that time. It's pretty interesting. Paul Carr, soccer on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 22:54 You ready to take your sports betting to a whole nother level? Sharp Plays at sharpplays.com is your secret weapon. 22:59 Since 2011, they've been building trusted relationships with major sports books and sports insiders worldwide. 23:05 They provide daily updates on what top pro sports bettors and betting groups are wagering on, so you're always ahead of the game. But that's not all. 23:10 They just launched a cutting-edge AI betting analyst that provides even more selections and reports, giving you the edge you need to win. 23:16 The best part, though, is you can check out the Sharp Plays free content anytime, get real-time betting action reports, alerts, and more through email and text directly from the pros. 23:25 Plus, explore all their records, including detailed online logs, right on the website at sharpplays.com. And with the Sharp Plays, you're joining a team that's never had a losing year. What do you have to lose? 23:34 Start today. Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander, Kelly Bilin is here as well. Uh, NFL rule change fever continues on the, uh, show. Real-time NFL rule change updates. 23:47 Oh, it's exciting. What else did we get? The touchback. So one- Oh, touchbacks at 35, yes... 35-yard line. Wi- that is the easiest one to me. Yes, I agree. If you were a point... 23:56 Remember, the NFL for years was like, "Oh, we don't want people to get hurt," and so we know that the kickoff return is the most, is the play that has the most, um... 24:07 potential for injury, and we have it in our historical data. We don't want that. We're legislating kickoffs out." And then a couple years ago they said, "Yeah, safety schmafty," I think is what my mom used to say. 24:18 Safety schmafty. And they're like, "Uh, yeah, we need to put this play back in the NFL 'cause it's so exciting. We don't care about your head injuries." They didn't really say that part. 24:28 Um, so they decided they wanted to bring it back, and what they found is that moving the touch, you know, that i- moving it to the 30 yard line ain't doing the deal because teams are still just gonna kick it out of the end zone. 24:39 They're like, "Why, why should we risk..." 'Cause the average, the average kickoff return went to the, what did Fezick say, like the 28.7 yard line, whatever. 24:46 Fe- Fezick had it right down to, like, the 100th decimal place. So why bother risking injury if you can just get it at the 30? But now they've moved it to the 35, which is what they... 24:56 If, if this was their goal to bring this play back into the NFL, they had to b- bring the touchback to the 35, and that's what they've done. So that's going to incentivize teams now to kick the ball in play much more. 25:09 At least that's the intention. Do you think, do you think we'll get the Steve Fezick speech on that this Friday? Or do we have to- [laughs]... wait all the way to the summertime for it? 25:16 Let's, let's, let's hope it's summertime. I'm actually... 25:18 It's like, it, it angered me how much teams did it last year, just kicked it out of the back of the end zone, and I, I can't wait to see the strategy actually this year. It, it didn't anger me. It made sense. Yeah. 25:28 If it's only to the 30, why, why bother? Let's talk some baseball. Marc Borchard joins us from under, uh, not from under a cloud of smoke, from an- [laughs]... undisclosed location in the desert. That's Marc's thing. 25:36 From an undisclosed- I'm not smoking, I'm not smoking yet, Gil. [laughs] No, it's not. I mean, I mean, it's been a good season so far, but you never know. 25:42 [laughs] From an undisclosed location in the desert, courtesy of Progressive guest line. Ad base winner, basewinner.com and all that. Marc, I'm curious. You're, you're a great guy to ask this question of. 25:51 Okay, so we just talked about a, a few things here over the last couple days. The torpedo bats, uh, that the Yankees have, uh, used and that, you know, some random players around the league are using as well. 26:01 We got Elie Dela Cruz's amazing game with the torpedo bat yesterday. I'm curious if you've, uh, in such a short amount of time, if you've adjusted anything with the Yankees. 26:11 I talked briefly just moments ago with Will Hill about, all right, 21 runs, including 18 by the Cubs yesterday in Sacramento. Thing or not a thing? 26:20 Maybe there's something you've noticed in Tampa Bay, speaking of new ballparks. What of all that? Wow, there's a lot there, Gil. Well, first of all, let's, let's cover the torpedo bats. 26:29 I don't think there's enough data to get excited either way. And, and my question would be, were they using them in spring training? 26:36 And if they were, they've, they hit a, a, a mod, a very, a good 800, uh, OPS that the Yankees collectively as a team. Uh, but that's super modest compared to the four games or three games. 26:47 They've only played three games. So I think that we need to kind of pump the brakes a little bit on that. I think the Twins are using some torpedo bats and, and I think they're worse in OPS. 26:56 So, uh, I, yeah, I think it's gonna help certain batters. Uh, you look at, like, Chisholm. Uh, they moved the... He gets jammed a lot. 27:05 They moved the barrel down towards the ha- or the, the torpedo bat designs move the sweet spot down on Chisholm's bat towards the handle. 27:14 So maybe on an individual basis it would have more of an impact, I think, than a, than on a team basis. But, you know, Judge, uh, he's not even using them. So, uh, torpedo bats, eh. A good story though, Gil. 27:26 Yeah, well, Kelly doesn't like the name. What do, what do you want to call them? 27:29 Uh, I, I, I will go through my evidence later in the show, as I've just compiled the pictures, but we're way, we're way too manly to just call them bowling pin bats, 'cause that is more- That's what they look like... 27:39 what we've reshaped them to. Sorry. Not an actual torpedo. All right. Throw that in the model, Marc. Yeah. Bowling pin bats. Yeah, no, no doubt. 27:45 As far as, as far as the park factors goes, I don't know that much about Suiter, Suiter Home Park or Sutter Home Park. I'm not really sure what the pronunciation- It's Sutter Health. Yeah, Sutter Okay. 27:55 So yeah, so, so, like, I'm not even sure about the pr- pronunciation, but I do know this. It was the most pitcher-friendly park in the Pacific Coast League. But the Pacific Coast League- That's right... 28:05 is, I mean, they're playing on the moon, Gil. Yes. So I, I think, I think we got to watch that and, and see. 28:12 Um, I tell you what, from an aesthetic standpoint as a, as an observer of the game and, and a fan of the game, I like it much better than Oakland, so that's cool. 28:20 But the one thing that, that, the one park, uh, i- it is, is Tampa Bay, and, and I think that, that Tampa Bay really has designed their team around Tropicana Field. 28:30 And now that they're not there anymore, it'll be interesting to see kind of if those pitching numbers remain low, and so far they have. 28:37 Uh, but, uh, I, I think that that would have more of an impact, uh, than, than the other, the other one. So we'll see, we'll see what happens. We'll see. 28:44 See, that's interesting, because what that triggers to me by that same logic, right? So what was Oakland's ballpark known for? Oakland's ballpark was known for vast amounts of foul ground. 28:54 So I wonder when you say that Tampa Bay was tailored to their ballpark, I wonder if the Athletics really, right, the pitching profile was tailored to that Oakland ballpark, where foul ground was really sort of quietly used to their benefit. 29:07 And if that goes out the window now, does that become a thing? Again, it's only one game, so total didn't adjust today. But I think by that same logic, that's an interesting thing to look into. Oh, for sure. 29:19 And, and I think that, that you make a really good point. I mean, it's still really early in the season, and, you know, are the Dodgers gonna go 162 and 0? And my answer is no, they're not. 29:29 But, um, you know- [laughs] Thank you... well, it's interesting. You know, it's interesting because, uh, they're, they're getting some s- more run than they really did before the season. 29:38 But if you look at the, they're, they're seventh, and that's good in, in, uh, weighted runs created plus team-wise. 29:44 They're seventh in baseball, and they're 13th in xFIP in starting pitching, and that's really surprising to me. So they've been able to, to compile this, uh, undefeated 6 and 0 record with those particular numbers. 29:56 So, uh, that was an interesting look, Gil- Okay... for me. So that, that at least gives an indication that the, the sport of baseball is not over, is what you're saying, with those numbers. 30:05 So, so far the underlying numbers don't necessarily support a juggernaut team. They're great, but not n- not necessarily as, [clears throat] perhaps as dominant as some are making them out to be early on. 30:15 Yeah, the starting pitching, this is a very neat stat. Starting pitching xFIP to date, 13th in baseball, and they're behind the Rockies, and they're behind Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's number five. So, like, our, you know- 30:29 Do what you will with the sample size, but- Yeah, exactly... 30:31 you know, it would be one thing for me, it'd be like, oh, if their, if their weighted runs created plus was 50 points better than the next team and their xFIP was, you know, 1.12 starting pitching, well, then maybe there's something there. 30:43 But, uh, I don't know. We could- Well, what we could, what we could find is the wins are banked, right, no matter what, and that those numbers could actually rise, so we'll see, you know. Well, f- no, for sure, Gil. 30:52 Yeah. And, and, uh, uh, you know, they've really kind of r- by my ratings to win the division, they've g- they've gone up to close to 70% from really 50/50. I've got them to win 108 games. 31:03 I got the Diamondbacks to win 104 roughly, 103.9. Oh, [laughs] my God. So, um, yeah, I like that. I like those D-backs, so. That's, this is, again- Still do... 31:11 I said this before, you know, like last year we had a cottage industry of these monthly baseball bets. Uh, then this year I started with the race to 10 and the, and monthly March, April. 31:20 The teams that I have ch- the Mets have, have two wins. They're two and two, and the Twins haven't even won yet. They're O and four. But I did say the other day, I'm like, I don't know, if they're this good, right? 31:29 And you say 108 wins, just imagine 108 wins, and spread that out over six months. It does kind of render those monthly markets somewhat moot, right? 31:39 If you're, if you win that many games, where's the chance for another team to win a month? It's fewer and far between. Not saying it won't happen, but the bets are fewer and far between. 31:50 It's just something to think about moving forward there. Yeah, no, it's interesting 'cause you have those monthly markets over there in Las Vegas, and we c- I can't get them in Arizona. 31:57 I was able to do it last year, but, uh, uh, just I think I've got three teams. Dodgers 16%, Boston 13.95%, and then the Yankees at about 13.6%. Those are the teams that I like for the April market. 32:12 Uh, and the Tw- your Twins, I think you've got the Twins, uh- Yeah... to, to win that, and so they're, they're fourth by the projections, 11% chance by the, by the numbers. So I'm not crazy. 32:20 I'm not crazy by those numbers. Yeah, no, not at all. What I- I think, in fact, let's, let's... Sorry, I, I jumped in on you. No, that's okay. You wanna go to, you wanna go to today's card. I, I get it. 32:29 [laughs] Today's card. What are, what did you play today? There's only a minute left. Less than a minute remaining. Yes. [laughs] I'm gonna go, yeah, I'm gonna go... [laughs] Sorry Gil, I know you don't like that. 32:36 It's okay. But, uh, uh, I'm gonna go to Minnesota, uh, today. Uh, I, I like the offense still. I mean, I'm not gonna get too excited about the, a small sample size. Uh, they're playing the White Sox. 32:46 Shane Smith, if you remember, uh, from your high school literature, there was a book called Shane, and he wore black. And so today you've got Shane Smith wearing black. 32:56 So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go with Minnesota. I've got to think price minus 237. They're minus 175 in the market. I think that's a fair price. But I also like the over here. 33:05 There's a little bit of weather that kind of goes against this, this handicap, but I think I've got 10 runs projected. It could overcome the weather. 33:12 Not a huge fan of Simeon Woods Richardson, so I think the White Sox will get some runs. I think Minnesota obviously will get some, some runs as well. 33:20 Uh, and so that's a parlay, Minnesota, to Minnesota and the White Sox over, risk one to win 2.03, so two to one on that, Gil. I thought we weren't gonna get a parlay, and Mark comes through with the parlay. 33:33 Thank you, Mark. Mark Borchardt, everybody, @basewinner. Basewinner.com. Thank you, sir. Soccer, Paul Carr. Promised it earlier, I mean it this time. That's next. 33:50 A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Take your betting to the next level with First Bet, whether it's Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, or the roads of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. 33:59 First Bet puts the action at your fingertips. Sign up now at firstbet.com. That's the number one S-T bet.com. And use promo code VSiN200 to score a 20% rebate on all your wagers for the first 60 days, up to $200. 34:12 Don't miss out. Bet smarter today at firstbet.com. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. I just wanna read this one because we were talking about the, uh, Crown Basketball Championship. 34:22 Is that what it's called, the Crown Basketball Championship? Now I'm now questioning what it's called now. Um, but anyway, this is... And, and I sort of went through what, you know- The College Basketball Crown... 34:31 the College Basketball Crown. Thank you. Psh, I'm sure that'll catch on. Uh, Sharp Cappers on Twitter, "This college basketball crown mess is ridiculous." He had CBC, that's why I was asking. "I had a..." 34:43 This is him talking now, "I had a four-leg parlay on the overs at BetRivers that would have paid out 12 to one, but was voided. FanDuel, though, accepted my losing bet on Utah. 34:54 In total, should have been up $300, but now I'm out $300. How does this make any sense?" Sharp Cappers, it doesn't. No, that's not right. That's not right. That's not right. 35:03 It doesn't make any sense, and this is, that's what we're saying is this is a mess. It's a total mess. And, and everybody has to be... Okay, if you're, if you're doing this, we all have to be consistent about it, right? 35:13 You can't take the losing bets and not pay the winning bets. That's, yeah, that's terrible. Yep. It's ter- terrible. You cannot take losers. The, I mean, you cannot grade losers for something like that. 35:24 Um- I mean, that should be completely illegal, right? I mean, if it wasn't- Yes... legal in the state- Correct... it wasn't passed by gaming, you cannot be taking money from people. Look into it, gaming. 35:33 You're so upset that, that they took bets in the first place, certainly don't let them grade them that way, and one way only. Um, okay, this is Joe Peta's baseball bets of the day. 35:42 You ready for Joe Peta's baseball bets of the day? I'm ready. So Joe Peta, um, first two days he was six and one for just over five units. Yesterday he had the audacity to go two and two. Loser. 35:53 The chutzpah to go two and two. So he is, for the season, eight and three, plus 4.94 units. He's got four plays today. Would you like to hear? Mm-hmm. Here we go. Uh, okay. He is on the New York Yankees. 36:07 New York Yankees at minus 111, play number one from Joe Peta. And by the way, thank you to Joe Peta for, uh, giving us the exclusive here on a numbers game for these, right? Uh, Yankees minus 111. 36:20 Right now they're actually a coin flip, you can get in at better, uh, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a little interleague play today. Yankees play number one. 36:25 He's on the White Sox plus 150 against the Twins, so he is oppo Mark Borchardt. Oppo Mike Mark Borchard in the White Sox Twinkies game. He's on the Brewers. The Brewers minus 116 today. 36:39 Uh, the Brew Crew, uh, is taking on the Royals, and that price is right where it, uh, has been, still minus 115, so right around that exact price. And the Braves, he is taking the Atlanta Braves at plus 124 today. 36:54 Uh, the Braves, again, taking on the Dodgers, of course. So the four plays, Yankees, White Sox, Brewers, and Braves from Joe Peta. I like it. Let's talk some soccer. 37:05 A man who's been on fire, Paul Carr joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, get this, very clever, @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R. 37:14 Uh, he works at True Media Networks and, of course, the host of the Expected Value podcast. How you doing, Paulie? Good. I came up with that Twitter handle myself. [laughs] I know. Very. 37:23 Well, it's very impressive, 'cause you would think that somebody else might've had it, but no, you jumped in on- They did. 37:27 Someone did originally, and I DM'd them, and then like six months later they got back to me and they're like, "Yeah, I've been trying to quit Twitter so you can have it, so I can't have it back." Oh, that was nice. 37:36 That was nice of them. That one. Same thing happened to me. Remember Primetime Action? Yeah. Matt Brown freaking out that I had to jump on, uh, uh, @KellyBidlin. Well, yeah, it's your name. Why wouldn't you take it? 37:44 It w- no, like Paul, it was originally taken when I first, like, signed up for Twitter. The best story is Spanky, who was on with us yesterday. 37:50 Spanky got Spanky in some sort of hilarious way, where he, like, duped the person in some way. [laughs] Duped the person. That's funny. Yeah, there was some story. I don't know. 37:57 I d- I don't know, duped might be strong, but there was some sort of story to it. All right, Paul, I said you were on fire. Explain w- how, how on fire are you right now? 38:05 Uh, last two Premier League weekends we swept them, 3 and 0, back-to-back Premier League. Hoo. Nice. So coming back from a international break, and we got midweek games in the Premier League this week. 38:13 Midweek, and then let's just talk, before we get to your picks, let's get to the Premier League in general. We are kind of, we know who's winning it, we know who's getting relegated, right? We know those two ends. Yep. 38:24 Yep. Yeah, Liverpool's, like, minus 10,000 to win the title. They're up 12 points with, uh, nine games remaining, so that's basically in the bag, and relegation is all but decided, too. 38:33 I mean, Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton, the three newly promoted teams are all gonna go back down. 38:37 Uh, Ipswich and Leicester are nine points deep in the relegation zone with, again, nine games to go, so they're, I mean, technically not relegated yet, but it's gonna happen. Does... 38:48 Let me see, 'cause, uh, we talked about this the other day. Southampton has nine points. Yeah. The worst point total of all time was what? Derby County in 07, 08 I think had 11. Oh, man. 38:59 So Southampton, uh, they'll, they'll get that. They'll get there? They've got a couple, yeah, one way or another, a couple relatively easy games, and games against teams that won't have anything to play for late. Okay. 39:07 And they just gotta get one win somewhere. They'll, they'll scratch one out somehow. Okay. All right. Uh, what we don't know is the Champions League four, right? Yeah. 39:15 Yeah, top four for Champions League, and actually, this year, top five will make Champions League from England almost certainly. 39:22 Basically, the two leagues that do the best in Europe get an e- get an extra spot, and England is all but guaranteed to be one of those. 39:30 So most bets, at least early season bets, are top four, which is still literally top four. 39:35 I have seen some books starting to, to put top five odds on there since that's likely the top five teams that are gonna make Champions League next year. Okay. Let's get to your three-pack of plays. 39:45 No guarantees that I'll have three straight sweeps- [laughs]... but let's try. What do you have? All right. We'll start today. We've got, I've got the Fulham double chance at Arsenal, plus 185. 39:55 Make sure you shop around, 'cause I've seen prices from 185 this morning down to, like, 160 or so. Obviously you want the better price. I wouldn't go below about 175. Uh, Fulham's been decent on the road this season. 40:05 They won at Newcastle, they won at Chelsea, they drew at Liverpool, uh, lost 3-2 at Man City but probably deserved better there. Uh, so Fulham is just, they've been better than I expected this season. 40:14 That's a good thing. They're in eighth place. And Arsenal, they hope to get Bukayo Saka, their best attacker, back for this game, but I don't expect he'd do anything more than come off the bench. So Fulham not scared. 40:26 They also like to attack from out wide, where Arsenal's been a little bit vulnerable this season. So give me the Fulham double chance. That's a win or a draw at plus 185 at Arsenal today. All right. 40:35 And also today, playing a plus price. Yeah, Nottingham Forest. Taking Forest to win again. I've done this a lot this year. They're the surprise of the Premier League season. 40:44 They're in third place after a season in which they were not that far off being relegated. I've got Forest to win today against Manchester United, plus 135. 40:53 Uh, this is, one, giving the better team at home, getting pretty good plus money. Uh, but also, there's a style thing here where United has shown lately that they're more comfortable playing without the ball. 41:04 Let the other team have the bulk of possession, then counterattack. That's where United's been at the best. But Forest is the same way. 41:11 They have had the lowest possession in the league this season, under 40%, so United's going to have a lot of the ball, and I'm not sure they know what to do with it. So this'll be a Forest kind of game. 41:21 Uh, the five games in which United has had the most possession this season, they've only scored four goals. They lost three, they drew two, including a loss to Forest in December. So Forest is the better team. 41:29 I think the style matchup favors them here, and I will take Forest to win this one at plus 135. All right. Wouldn't be a Paul Carr segment without a total. What do you have tomorrow? 41:38 We are rooting against human achievement tomorrow, Gil. I like it. Liverpool, Everton, under 2.5. This is one of the best rivalries in the Premier League. 41:47 Their stadiums are separated, the current stadiums are separated by about a mile, though Everton's moving next year. Uh, they played a 2-2 match in February, but that game only had 16 total shots, 1.6 expected goals. 41:59 One goal was kind of a fluky but well-executed set piece, couple others off random bounces. So there weren't a ton of good chances, and that's generally the case in these Liverpool-Everton games. 42:08 Their five Premier League meetings before February all had under 2.5 goals. Uh, plus there's no Trent Alexander-Arnold for Liverpool, the right back who's one of the best passers and creators in the league. 42:19 And this match kind of reminds me a little bit in general of Steelers-Ravens It's always fierce, always seems to be low scoring. So I think we got under two and a half here, uh, plus 105 is my price. Okay. 42:30 So Fulham double chance plus 185, shop around against Arsenal today at Arsenal. Nottingham Forest, uh, the outright win against Man U plus 135, that also today. 42:41 Then tomorrow, Liverpool and Everton under two and a half goals, betting against human achievement from Paul Carr as he goes for his third consecutive sweep. Uh, by the way, a little more, uh, NFL rule change fever. 42:53 We got some more, uh, rule change results here. The owners have voted to reject the Detroit Lions proposal to eliminate automatic first downs on defensive holding and illegal contact penalties. 43:04 So we will still have automatic first downs on those. Sorry, Lions, with all of your, uh, cheating on defense. [laughs] There's still, still gonna be automatic first downs- Stop cheating... for the offense. 43:13 Uh, and then the tush push, Paul, and I'm curious what your thoughts are here. Oh. The tush push. Everybody ready? They've agreed to table the tush push discussion- Mm-hmm... for later. 43:22 No d- no decision on the tush push, or as we like to call it- I-... the tush push here. Kind of feel like, you know, people will just kind of, people will figure out how to defend it better at some point. 43:32 Um, uh, but until someone, like at some point I can see a quarterback getting hurt, you know, whether it's a concussion, whether a knee gets torn up in the pile, something like that, that's when I think they would start to care enough to change something. 43:43 'Cause I can under- it's not, whatever, real football in the sense that we all kind of wanna watch, but I mean, it's a legal play, so I think it's fine for now, and teams will just have to figure out how to defend it. 43:54 Legal play. It's aesthetically unpleasing perhaps, but it's a legal play. Mm-hmm. And the Eagles just do it better than everybody else. Right. I- That's the thing. It's not like everybody's doing it. 44:02 It's just one, two, two and a half teams or so. I get the counterargument. The counterargument again is, well, you legislated the defense can't do these similar things. Right. 44:10 Um, but, um, for now, that discussion is tabled. Paul, thank you. Appreciate it as always. You bet. Have a good week. Paul Carr, you too. Right here on The Numbers Game. 44:20 Uh, we'll come back, Drew Dincic on the NBA, and maybe some tennis. We'll see if he's playing any clay early right here at V- the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
