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Apr 1, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 1, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 1, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network.
0:11
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Billin to my left, to your right.
0:20
Uh, that's the svelte, weight-losing individual next to me, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Oh, thanks man. Appreciate that. Yeah. What are you down to now? I am down to 242.
0:31
Wow, what are you trying to get down to? I don't know. Two bucks? Yeah. Good for you. In that range. Yep. Good for you. Um- You'll pass me at that point. [laughs] S- and that will be a moment.
0:41
[laughs] Uh, Drew Dincic standing by to join us here momentarily. We'll also do a NFL draft position number three and four. Did I say that correctly? Yeah, we got- Little later on...
0:50
we got a lot of, a lot of posts- Oh... a lot of draft props up. Let's go NFL draft props, I like it.
0:54
I just wanna say this before we get to Drew, and w- we could actually bring in Drew for this, but this is, this is such a pet peeve of mine.
1:00
Um, we're going through the NFL rule changes that are happening here in real time. Little before the show they started, and now fully in the first hour, we went through a bunch of them.
1:08
Um, but I relate this, what, what drives me crazy about sports media is that it's this, no, no one asks, and I hope this is why people like a Numbers Game, right? I, no one asks the obvious questions afterwards.
1:21
Uh, talk about the Kevin Willard thing with Villanova and Maryland last week, and I came on the show, remember everybody was piling on Kevin Willard.
1:27
They're like, "Oh my God, he's going to Villanova r- just for Maryland because it's a better job." And right, and I kept asking the question, I'm like, "Yeah, but why is it a better job?"
1:36
University of Maryland was supposed to have, it's a Big Ten school, supposed to have all this money, this Under Armour money. You know, like why have, oh, 'cause Villanova has a better basketball history.
1:45
No, that's not the reason. The reason was, as I pointed out, is that with a, with a possible salary cap, if you will, pending, that these things are going to be based on a program, not on individual sport.
1:58
So Maryland basketball will have to deal with Maryland football, Maryland's women's, Maryland women's basketball, whereas Villanova men's basketball does not have to deal with other sports in the same way.
2:08
Villanova men's basketball is king at that institution. So Willard made that kind of calculus. But it's just an example of like people don't go the extra, right, mile to find out what's the reason behind stuff.
2:18
Let's just do the brain dead stuff and pile on this guy. I'm not saying Maryland, you know, Maryland fans shouldn't be mad, but there's a reason why he's doing it.
2:26
This overtime thing is like today's example of that, right?
2:29
You and I have been trying to figure out now for, for an hour since this is coming down, and hopefully somebody can, can explain this to us, because we're not getting that explanation, which is that the overtime rule change, for those who missed it, um, the NFL has decided to make it like their postseason, uh, their playoff overtime rules.
2:46
In other words, no longer will if the first team that gets the football, if they score a touchdown, previously the game was over at that point. Now they're l- now they say both teams are guaranteed the football.
2:56
Both teams are guaranteed the football. Um, but we're wondering, Kelly, is okay, but you left it at 10 minutes. That's the other, you left the overtime period at 10 minutes.
3:07
And so we said, "Self," we said to ourselves, "Self, what if you have a drive that begins these new overtime periods," and let's just use, I don't know, Jayden Daniels in Washington.
3:19
Jayden Daniels, who authored multiple, many 17-play, 18-play drives this year, right? Where the Skins were just moving it on third and fourth downs. I should really get to Commanders by now, by the way.
3:31
[laughs] Um, and let's say, let's say, you know, let's say Washington uses eight and a half minutes of the overtime and scores a touchdown. Fourth and goal at the one, they score. The other team get, now gets 90 seconds?
3:45
That's their idea of fair? Or let's take it to an even more extreme example. Let's say a team that gets the ball first goes nine minutes and 56 seconds. Not impossible. Unlikely, but not impossible.
3:58
They go nine minutes and 56 seconds, and they k- and they, then they kick a field goal, and there's zero time left on the clock. Can anyone explain to us what rule trumps which rule?
4:09
Is it the 10 minutes that trump the two possessions, or is it the two possessions that trump the 10 minutes? We don't have an explanation on that.
4:16
Maybe Drew, maybe Drew, who by the way, we, we lost Drew for a second, but we got Drew back. Uh, Drew Dincic, who is the host of both the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcasts.
4:24
You have any idea what would trump what in that scenario? Well, uh, my guess is that, uh, the, the 10 minutes is kind of the key, and when 10 minutes is over, the overtime period is over.
4:35
And if it's a tie, it's a tie, and if one team is ahead and the other team has yet to touch the ball, then, you know, tough cookies. But, um, I'm just glad they're finally giving us what we want, more ties.
4:44
[laughs] You know? That's right. Like, uh, like, you know, I- Just what we wanted... as I saw the, the news and the, uh, and the, the new rules crawl across my screen, I was like, "Oh, finally.
4:53
More, more dinking with the kickoff." This is, this is what I've been, this is, as a football fan my whole life, I have really been dying for them to continue to, uh, to massage the kickoff rules.
5:03
And, and, and, and at long last we're gonna get more returns. I, I don't care. Uh, but, but yeah.
5:07
Do you also, do you also do that thing as, as a bettor when, when it's a tie where you take that extra second and a half to figure out, "Wait, it's a tie. Did I win that? Oh, yes, I did win that. That's right."
5:15
[laughs] Um, but yeah, I, I just wanted, what you're saying is you're probably right, Drew, but I'd like someone to actually say that. Oh, of course. Yeah. Of course, of course.
5:23
I think they're gonna have to, they're gonna have to, uh, um, you know, put some clarifying language in whatever gets codified, I would expect, so that there's no ambiguity.
5:32
But, uh, to me, this reads as you get 10-minute overtime period to try to decide this thing.
5:36
If one team scores, the other team is, you know, will, will get, will receive a kickoff regardless of how much time is remaining, and, um- Guaranteed for both teams to have the ball except when Jayden Daniels is on the field- [laughs]...
5:47
and goes nine minutes and 56 seconds, that kind of thing. I mean, we should, I'm trying to find the answer to this, 'cause it should be out there.
5:53
I've been trying as, literally every break I've been trying to find the answer. I've found none. I mean, it should be out there already, though, because this should apply to, to the playoff games already, correct?
6:04
I mean, it's just a longer period- With playoff games, there's no ties... of the playoffs games. So they go- Yeah... until infinity. There's no time. Yeah. Ri- okay. Right. Yeah, good point.
6:11
Um, again, it's just journalism. It's like, was somebody- [laughs]... curious enough to, to give us the answer to this? Um, Drew, any... Before we get to the NBA, any- Yeah...
6:20
well, first of all, let's start with the NFL draft since we're on the- Sure... NFL. Have you made any NFL draft bets? I don't, I, I, you know, I, uh, if there's liquidity available to me, I don't know about it.
6:29
[laughs] Yeah. There's, it is extremely tough- Yeah... at this point for, uh, for me to find ways into this market.
6:37
Um, but I can tell you what I, you know, kind of reading the tea leaves, uh, what it seems like, I guess the, the important news of the last week that doesn't need- seem to be being entirely digested by the market is that the Aaron Rodgers is just gonna happen to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
6:56
Um, which is fun if you have any kind of, uh, you know, any, any, any type of, uh, um, you know, hatred in your heart for Pittsburgh.
7:07
[laughs] That, that feels like a, a, a, a, an opportunity for awesome implosion that I'm- [laughs]... excited to see play out in real time.
7:14
Um, but, uh, you know, Aaron Rodgers to the Steelers is, is, uh, feels like it's just gonna happen. Um, but maybe more importantly, Kirk Cousins to the Browns. Um, this is...
7:23
it sort of feels like the secret is out of the bag there. Um, every person I talked to on media row at the Super Bowl was talking like that was already a done deal.
7:32
Um, when Miles Garrett gets resigned and has the kind of comical smirk of, "They, they let me in on what the plan is for the quarterback position," that sort of reinforced that it was a done deal.
7:44
Um, and then the fact that they've been pretty clear and obvious that they're not interested in trading up for Cam Ward, that they're not really sincerely evaluating the quarterback position, also screams that, you know, this is...
7:55
They're, they're gonna take, uh, you know, some, uh, best non-quarterback position available and, uh, and then make some sort of move after the fact for,
8:05
uh, Kirk Cousins to be their guy this year, maybe next year as well.
8:08
So, um, yeah, I mean, I, that, that matters a ton in terms of shaping the top of the draft, 'cause people are treating the second overall pick like it's this big mystery that could ultimately, uh, you know, have all of the rest of the cards unfold.
8:20
But, um, it seems pretty crystallized. Tennessee's stick and pick Cam Ward number one. Um,
8:28
Cleveland's gonna take the better of Hunter or, um, or Carter for their, you know, ba- based on their evaluation of, you know, player strength, which if I had to guess would mean Hunter, but, um, could mean Carter.
8:42
Uh, and then, uh, Giants don't seem to be especially interested in a quarterback either.
8:47
I mean, I know they spent a lot of time scouting Shea Sanders during the regular season, so, um, you know, they may ultimately, uh, have eyes for him at three.
8:55
But, uh, that, uh, that brain trust there felt like they put up the white flag this week. [laughs] Like, "We know we're getting fired. Nothing we do can save us."
9:05
[laughs] Um, we're gonna lose, you know, the, the Giants are gonna lose 14 games this year, kind of regardless of, of what they do at this point.
9:11
So, um, you know, I'd, I, I would guess that, uh, um, that there's maybe a little less seriousness going on there and they m- they may ultimately take, uh, um, Hunter if he's available, or Sanders if Hunter's gone.
9:24
And, uh, I think that leaves Carter available for the Patriots at four if they elect to take him there or trade, uh, trade down and, and target offensive line help.
9:34
Uh, either one would help fortify the trenches, which feels like a very bold thing to do. Um, Mason Graham fifth, I think you can put in pen. Um, sixth is an absolute mystery box to me.
9:45
I, I don't know that I believe, uh, how s- you know, sincerely the Raiders are about taking a running back even though that fits exactly what you would think Pete Carroll would wanna do in terms of team building there and having a, having a guy that can help him get to 52 completions plus rushing attempts- [laughs]...
10:01
uh, every week. Um, but- Yeah... uh, you know, six is, six to me is a little bit of a mystery.
10:06
And then, uh, seven to me, the Jets would almost certainly take a, an offensive tackle, I would assume, based on the way that they've treated their off-season, so. Yeah. You know. Pete Carroll's fa- Maybe Banks. Yeah.
10:16
Pete Carroll's fascination with running backs always amuses me. So l- let me just say this and, and we'll, we'll get to the other stuff after the break.
10:22
But in the last 60 seconds here, w- we used to treat the NFL draft, you were part of this, as an ATM machine. [laughs] Over the last couple years, it hasn't really gone that way.
10:31
Do you still view it in the same way you used to? Like, oh, this could still be a massive thing, or do you, do you view it a little more, with a little more trepidation these days?
10:41
Uh, well, I would say la- the last two years, I had a very tough time, uh, making money in the NFL draft.
10:48
Um, two years ago, we had very, very solid information in terms of what the, you know, how the top was gonna unfold.
10:56
Um, but then day of the draft, uh, it kind of leaked that Tennessee had the deal to move up to three to take C.J.
11:03
Stroud, and then that changed all of the calculus of the Texans so that they took Stroud second to nuke that trade so that they could then, they could trade up to take Will Anderson third, and that entirely reshuffled the top of the draft.
11:15
So all my, um, big prices evaporated in a minute.
11:18
And then last year, I feel like I was sort of a target for a lot of disinformation [laughs] because what I was being told ultimately had very, very little bearing in terms of the way things played out.
11:29
So, um, yeah, it's, uh, it, it's been two, two NFL draft cycles now in a row where I've had a tough time really getting anything in. Yeah. Well, I think you answered the question.
11:38
The trepidation is, is, is only a natural thing. [laughs] But who knows? I think that's a good breakdown of the top of the draft, though, from you. Uh, we'll come back more with Drew, NBA and beyond.
11:47
It's the Numbers Game, VSiN, eSports Betting Network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The tournament may be winding down, but the betting action never stops.
12:03
Major League Baseball's back, NBA and NHL playoffs are around the corner, and the PGA Masters, or as I like golf, the Masters, and NFL draft are just weeks away.
12:11
Stay ahead of every opportunity with a VSiN Pro subscription for just $9.99 and get daily best bets from VSiN hosted guests, exclusive betting splits from DraftKings and Circa 24/7 video access on the VSiN Watch app, plus our MLB season betting guide and upcoming Kentucky Derby betting guide.
12:25
No matter the sport, VSiN Pro has you covered. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe for just $9.99. That's vsin.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Biblin. Wanna Ron Burgundy through some, uh, some tweets?
12:37
Yeah, go for it. Why don't we do that? Dgen_SouthernJet, "Hearing Will Hill describe the very specific subject matter of your group text makes me realize two things.
12:46
One, I'd feel right at home in there, and two, it would utterly destroy any productivity I actually have on a daily basis."
12:52
Yeah, uh, or as, uh, Deborah Song, fashion stylist says, he goes, "You still talking to your girlfriend? You still talking to your girlfriends over that?" It, it's really that secondary point.
12:59
The text message groups are dangerous because of that, 'cause how many times you're like, "All right, I'm gonna walk out the door here," and then you stand there like t-t-t-t-t, like, "All right, I've been sitting here, standing here for two minutes involved in this text back and forth when I'm supposed to be going to run an errand."
13:12
[laughs] Just sets back your whole day. She'll say stuff like, "Is, is, really what's happening on there more important than what's happening here?" I go, "Well, we're kind of busting on s- on Stevie right now."
13:19
[laughs] So yeah, kind of. Uh, SteveTheProxy, "Lowest score ever." What, did you get a nine on Immaculate Grid? Is that what you got? Wow. Do you play Immaculate Grid, by the way at all?
13:29
I, like I have once or twice, not really. They, the baseball one is awesome. I don't know what it is about baseball specifically, but it is a great one. Jesse Welch, um,
13:37
there ha- quote, "There has to be some line that goes in the bettor's favor."
13:41
He's quoting me from earlier talking about the, uh, the college basketball crown thing, not, not betting line, but there has to be a line drawn where somehow the bettor has some kind of, you know, assurance.
13:52
He says, "Well, that'd be news to me, because I don't know if you're aware of this, Gilley, but we're all just guests around here." Oh, [laughs] yes, I am. Yes, I am.
14:01
Uh, this is from, uh, Bruce Dobek, and, "Ask Kelly to explain the PGA Tour dead heat rules. Had Pendrith as first round leader last Thursday. Uh, he ties with three others. It was declared a loss by an offshore house.
14:13
How come?" Well, it shouldn't have been declared a loss. It shouldn't have been a loss. Yeah. Yeah, you should've won something. No.
14:18
You should've had, you should've gotten dead heat rules, which by the way, dead heat rules- Or you would've gotten pennies, but yeah... yeah, suck, 'cause it's not- Actually, actually maybe don't bring it up.
14:25
They might say you owe them, actually. [laughs] That's, that's right, they might say you owe them money. Uh, let's see. Uh, John Blom, "Catching up on DVR, so just saw the first segment.
14:34
I heard the issue with betting the Crown Basketball Championship was because of the NIL prize money going to winners. Have you heard that?" That could be, um, why it was n- uh, why it required approval, right?
14:47
I don't know why they decided. It's, it's a new tournament, right? So maybe it's just blanket new tournament. Maybe it's because it's a new tournament that was based on prize money, I don't know.
14:56
But either way, those jurisdictions, uh, determined that it needed approval, and those books did not seek it. Uh, Chance Copperpot, "I hadn't seen the news on voided bets for the CBC tourname- uh, tourney.
15:06
For what it's worth, I included Nebraska in a money line double with the heat yesterday, and they paid it out, but that wasn't a far away pla- but that was," he says, "at far away places, places where they let you bet on the weather."
15:16
[laughs] Rick Olea, "Hey, guys, I won't be saying the name of a random baseball player today. LOL, just Joshin', April Fools." Damon Berryhill. And on and on with the tweets. We appreciate it.
15:25
Uh, Drew Dincic kind enough to join us here for a, uh, second segment. Once again, uh, you can follow him @whale_capper.
15:31
He's the host of the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast on NBC Sports, and then we get to see him courtesy of Skype. By the way, the final- [laughs]... days of Skype. How do you feel? I mean,
15:42
uh, it, it, this, the fact that they fumbled the bag on this product in a time where we desperately needed video conferencing is unbelievable. Um- Yeah...
15:53
it makes you wonder if one of the most valuable and important companies on the earth, uh, did this to Skype, what, what else, what else is going on behind the scenes?
16:01
Um, yeah, really, uh, at least I have Copilot on my, uh, on my taskbar now, so I can do something with that.
16:08
[laughs] But yeah, the entire tech space spooks, spooks me, uh, with the, uh, the lack of, uh, um, kind of thoughtfulness of the way that they're bungling these products. I owe a lot to Skype.
16:20
I can remember e- the, my very first podcast that I did was this, was on Skype, right? You res- you figured out the settings, how you can record somebody's voice in a thing. Skype, Audacity. Mm-hmm.
16:31
These, these were the early days of podcasting, so RIP Skype. But final days perhaps of Skype here. When is it supposed to go away? April? Yeah, next month or two. Month or two? Yeah.
16:38
I was just trying to remember who was I j- who was I just hearing rip on, uh, Microsoft and Apple, and it was, I think it was Drew Dincic. I wanna- [laughs] It was Drew. [laughs] It was probably Drew. Yeah.
16:48
Drew, are you betting any clay here, first week of clay around the globe? I don't have any, I don't have any tennis in action today. I'm enjoying it. Uh- Yeah... but I can give you some clay stories, of course.
16:58
Uh, enjoying the, the green clay of Charleston, uh, of course, uh, from a specific clay provider in, in, uh, Charlottesville, Virginia. R. True, baby. Um- Yes. Yes.
17:08
That's right, and, uh, it's, uh, it's a little faster than your European clay, uh, a little closer to hardcore. It's kind of the perfect transition material there.
17:17
Um, my numbers say Pegula is gonna win that tournament pretty cleanly, so I haven't gotten involved.
17:21
Uh, on the, uh, and then in the men's, uh, Houston, I took a small piece of Mickelson, uh, after he took down Leonard Tien, uh, yesterday. I think in general, the men's Houston draw is, like it's hilariously, uh, weak.
17:36
Um, so why not Mickelson is kind of my [laughs] cap there. Uh, ultimately, I, I just have, you know, vote of no confidence for me right now on what I'm seeing out of Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe as your top two seeds.
17:47
Uh, and, uh, usually I would try to pick like a South American or a European contingent, uh, you know, to go, to go raid the US Men's Clay Court Championship, but, uh, the choices are pretty, pretty weak.
17:59
Uh, Christian Garin, uh, likely gets the better of Tommy Paul, in my opinion. Um, and, uh, you know, the, the, the rest of the, um, runners are, are all pretty, uh, pretty suspect, so.
18:12
We'll see if Mick- Mickelson can do something fun Yeah. I hope you don't mind. Uh, er, last week I said, I started by saying this doesn't make me happy that Drew has not done well in tennis.
18:22
[laughs] But at least it, but at least me- [laughs]... it makes me feel sane- Yeah... 'cause I've done terribly also. So I just wanted to- Yeah... yeah, I apologize for even bringing it up, but, uh- Oh, no, it's okay...
18:30
I, I take no joy, believe me, in, in that. Um- Yeah, I think I've had only one or two winning tournaments all season so far.
18:37
In Miami, I eventually just had to stop betting all together and walk away, which, uh, which was a bummer because I was fading Djokovic every round until he ultimately lost. [laughs] Until, until he ultimately lost.
18:49
Um- Yeah... I too am, I too am taking the week off from it. Uh, first, first week doesn't, uh, provide much opportunity in my opinion. Basketball. We only have- Mm... um, seven games tonight in the NBA.
19:00
What did you land on, if anything? Oh, man, basketball we could go on and on. Uh, it is a hugely consequential night for the playoffs specifically and the play-in.
19:10
Um, my, uh, the, the, uh, the Warriors-Grizzlies game in particular- Yeah... matters a ton. Uh, loser of this game, uh, almost certainly by my numbers will be in the 7-8 plan. The winner of this game will avoid.
19:25
Uh, which is very cool that we have like, uh, uh, you know, on the start, to the, to the, to start April we get a basically a de facto playoff game which is, which is sick. Um, I took the si- it's down to five.
19:36
I took the six points with the Grizzlies. I, I would still take the five.
19:40
Um, it's kind of amazing to me that the Grizzlies, or that the s- price point for the Warriors is, um, richer than I got involved with the Celtics against the Grizzlies last night.
19:49
Um, I think most of the takeaways of my Grizzlies-Celtics watch was the more about the Celtics than it was about the Grizzlies.
19:56
Um, the Grizzlies dared them to do what they do best in shooting threes, and they, and the Celtics did it. So it's, doesn't really teach you much.
20:04
Another, uh, game, you know, another, the, the, the fatigue that would be expected for the likes of, uh, a Ja and a JJJ doesn't really exist considering that they haven't played a ton in the month of March.
20:14
And, uh, and so I think ultimately the Grizzlies are, are live to, um, to cover this number against the Warriors who have a amazing top two, but offensive options be- beyond that are pretty, uh, pretty weak, especially if, uh, Kuming can't go.
20:26
So, um, I think that'll be a really competitive, really close game, and I took the points with the Griz.
20:32
Uh, the other kind of major meaningful game from, um, a Western Conference playoff standpoint is, of course, the Timberwolves against the Nuggets.
20:40
The boogeymen go to elevation and, uh, and I think ought to be favored in that game. Uh, the Nuggets, if you didn't know, have the best home court advantage in all of, uh, professional basketball.
20:54
Um, and even then I can't square that the Timberwolves and the Nuggets are on equal footing, um, especially considering you have questionable tags on both Murray and Gordon.
21:04
If one or both do not go, this flips pretty quickly I think to Wolves favored. Um, the Nuggets right now for me
21:11
are the sixth-best team in the West, and it's not really even a con- and not really like a long conversation about how that's possible.
21:17
This, uh, uh, they're the only team with a, uh, you know, in the mix for a playoff spot who has a bad defense. Uh, and the options after Jokic are just really, really troubling.
21:27
Um, the, the, the thin nature of that roster is, is finally starting to catch up to them. So, um, yeah, I think, uh, Timberwolves are the bet, uh, plus the two now points against Denver.
21:37
Yeah, roughly seven or eight games left in the NBA season, depending on what team it is.
21:41
Um, in, in the previous, in the f- former game that, that Drew was talking about, Grizzlies-Warriors, right now the Grizzlies are in fifth, 44 and 31.
21:49
The Warriors are a half-game behind them in the sixth hole at 43 and 31. And then you have the T-Wolves and Clippers both at 43 and 32, a half game behind the Warriors in 7-8. Those are play-in positions right now.
22:02
The T-Wolves, as Drew just mentioned, taking on the Nuggets, who themselves are involved in a two, three, four seeding tussle, um, with the Rockets above them and the Lakers below them, obviously the Thunder well ahead of everybody else.
22:15
Um, okay, I'm gonna just ask you this because I'll ask this of Kelly later. Mm-hmm. On the way out, one team answer. I come to you from the future and the, uh, Thunder did not win the West. The team that won it is the?
22:27
Oh, man. Why you gotta do that to me on the way out the door? [laughs] Man, I, that, that, uh, if, uh, I'm, I'm, I'm in, I'm in deep trouble if that happens. Uh, and it's the Warriors. I love that answer. Love it.
22:39
[laughs] Kelly has a different answer every week. That's right. We're gonna find out what his answer is later. Uh, thank you, Drew. Appreciate it, man. Hey, best of luck, guys. You too.
22:46
Drew Ditzig, everybody, right here on The Numbers Game. NFL draft props next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
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23:05
Sign up today, edgeboost.bet with promo code ANJ. ANJ as in A Numbers Game. Deposit $25 and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. Skill Alexander, um, Wet Willy Colon on Tw- on Twitter.
23:20
Um, so by the way, I was told maybe it's Colon. It could be. It could be Wet Willy Colon, as in Bartolo Colon. That's true. Uh, he says, "Clay season, also known as quarry somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic season."
23:31
It's a quarry in Charlottesville, Virginia. That's right. I play on Har-Tru in Miami. It's awesome. Actually, what did I just see? I have this pulled up in multiple tabs. Um,
23:42
Shadwell, Virginia, just outside, four miles east of Charlottesville. I'll allow it. And it's, uh, owned by Har-Tru LLC. There you go.
23:51
So you think, did Har-Tru ca- come before they owned the quarry, or did they buy the quarry, create the courts, and then call themselves Har-Tru? Excellent question. We should look into that.
24:02
[laughs] I think I've done enough research. I know. I'm, I'm curious now that you mention it. [laughs] I was just talking earlier how we don't get to the bottom of things. We should get to the bottom of that. Yeah.
24:10
Um, I've never played on red clay, on true red clay before, but Har-Tru is awesome. Very cool. And the other thing is if it rains, it-... does not soak up, like you can still play on it like 10 minutes later.
24:22
Yeah, this was our rem- uh, we've definitely had this exact same conversation 'cause I- Yeah...
24:26
like there's a lot of red clay that I've pl- that I played on in South Florida, and I never understood that 'cause you always said that about the rain. And it's like, well, why would you use that down there then?
24:34
It's gonna rain, and it's gonna take forever to dry out. Why would you use what down there? The red clay. You're saying the red- Oh... clay gets- No, no, no, the Har-Tru.
24:41
You play like right immediately, right afterwards. Right, that's what I'm saying. So why would Florida use red clay for- Oh, I don't know. I've never- Yeah. It's dumb... they have red clay in Florida? Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
24:48
Do they really? Yeah. Oh, I didn't know that. Um, by the way, Drew got me super bumped. I, I will say this. We, we've had, uh, NFL rule change fever all morning.
24:56
We are still waiting on the ruling, if you will, whether they change the rule or not for seedings in the playoffs. Yeah, I guess you're right.
25:04
When you asked me that during the break, I don't know that I knew that was really being considered. Oh, that's being considered. I mean, I kn- I know that they... [laughs] I knew that Detroit was pushing for that.
25:13
And I don't get why, by the way, but I, I am more vehemently, vehemently opposed to that than any of them. Me too. Like, don't... Why are you changing that? I mean, to... I just- So what if a team wins a division at 8-8?
25:26
It kind of makes it quirky. Regular seasons have to matter. Like all these- Yes... sports, it's, it's w- everything we talked about with the College Football Playoff expansion, right?
25:35
You're making, you're making me care less about what happens in the regular season- Yeah... in college football. S- that would do a, have a similar effect. Oh. I don't mi- I don't mind that some team,
25:44
you know- Well, sort of. I mean-... wins the NFC South with some nonsense record- Me either. Like, it's cool... and gets a home game in the playoffs Yeah. It makes it cool. Anyway.
25:52
Gotta own your, gotta win your division first. Um, Drew got me pumped 'cause he started, I didn't...
25:58
You know, w- I, the NFL draft with him was almost an afterthought 'cause we were talking about the rule change, about overtime, and then he went into what I thought was a great breakdown of what he thinks, how he thinks the top of the draft is gonna play out.
26:09
So just to review, just to give the sort of, you know, quick thumbnail of it, Cam Ward goes first to Tennessee. And then Cleveland, which is the real sort of fulcrum of this, he
26:23
m- very much believes now that Cleveland will acquire Kirk Cousins, and that therefore they will not draft a quarterback at number two.
26:32
And by the way, we know that Cleveland didn't send anybody to scout Cam Ward or went, or send anybody to Cam Ward's pro day, so they're clearly, um, they clearly convince Cam Ward's going first, even if they did have an interest.
26:43
But they don't, uh, they, if they're getting Kirk Cousins, they're probably not gonna draft a quarterback, that's Drew's working theory, and therefore will draft either Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter
26:53
with the number two pick in the draft. I can't imagine that it would be Carter in that case because you just, you just resigned Myles Garrett. Your defense is already pretty good.
27:06
You don't real- like, you really want a, a guy who might be an undersized guy to put behind Myles Garrett? Like, I don't even know if you want... Get, draft Travis Hunter. So
27:18
that's the, that's the working theory anyway of what Cleveland might do with the number two pick in the draft.
27:23
Number three pick in the draft is the Giants, [laughs] and God help us all try to figure out what, what their sort of order of prioritization is.
27:30
But Drew's thinking on the prioritization of the Giants is Travis Hunter first, but I just gave a scenario where he's gone already. Shedeur second, Abdul Carter third. So we show the third overall pick odds right now.
27:48
Travis Hunter is the favorite. Shedeur is plus 120. Abdul Carter plus 250. Hmm. I don't know. I don't think I would risk a bet on Shedeur Sanders there at plus 120, quite frankly. I wouldn't either.
28:01
'Cause I don't know what the Giants are thinking. Now, at number four in the draft order, which we have, again, props out for this, is the Patriots. It does feel a little bit like with the fourth pick,
28:15
I don't know, do the Patriots end up with Abdul Carter at four then if the Giants aren't obsessed with him? This is another one where Travis Hunter's favored in. It's Travis Hunter plus 150.
28:26
I, I, I don't think Travis Hunter... Uh, first of all, I think that's the wrong favorite. I don't think there's any way Travis Hunter gets down to four. Man, I don't, I don't know how to feel about Travis Hunter still.
28:38
I just thought, I just thought Drew's thinking was pretty, was pretty interesting. Like, Kir- the Kirk Cousins acquisition by the Browns then makes the rest of this cascade, to some degree.
28:48
Not n- not with like [laughs] 100% certainty, though, 'cause we still aren't sure what the Giants would do at three. We, we aren't 100% sure if they'd go Hunter or Carter at two, but let's say it's Hunter for giggles.
29:00
We still don't know what the Giants would do at three. So caught this note yesterday from Dave All saying th- th- this is where I still get, I get stuck on Hunter still, right? I get stuck 'cause- Yeah...
29:09
it really seems he is locked in to that top three, maybe four, okay? But there's still like, Dave All said, "We'll evaluate him at both spots."
29:19
There are teams that are seriously considering this kid this much, and they don't know exactly where they're gonna play him yet. I, I don't- What- Something's fishy there to me.
29:27
What did, what did, uh, Stephanie, our dear Stephanie, what did she find out about how the, what position they're gonna assign to Travis Hunter at DraftKings? What did they say? Mm, I'll have to double-check on that.
29:36
Okay. 'Cause w- with the whole wide receiver/defensive back, um, it's gonna depend. Some of your draft props are going to either m- may come down to how they decide to treat Travis Hunter.
29:49
Only listed as c- he will only be considered a cornerback there. Only, will only be considered a cornerback at DraftKings, Travis Hunter, so that's another thing you need to know.
29:58
Do we have the fourth overall pick odds, or did I just imagine that we had those? We don't have a graphic. I got them up in front of me now. Oh, okay. It's 100 plus 150 Abdul Carter plus 210.
30:07
And then you got- So I think the, I think there is a case to be made for the Abdul Carter at four thing at plus 210. That so far to me seems like the best bet, but even that I'm not, like, super sure about.
30:18
The Colorado stuff's fascinating, and you've got, what, they're doing their pro day on Friday where both guys are working out at, which why is Travis Hunter working out at that? [laughs] Like, I don't know what...
30:28
We don't, we don't know that he needs to show anything.
30:29
If everybody's so convinced on him, I'm go- I'm- The, the what position thing is he playing is still, is, how that's a question still i- is amazing to me, even though we've basically locked him into the top four.
30:42
I guess I'm assuming, and, and I think you are too, right, that it is mainly cornerback, and we're gonna sprinkle him in on some w- some offensive plays. Yep.
30:49
Um, Shedeur Sanders, I mean, look, there's major, we're, there's major questions out right now about him, it sounds like. He has gotten character assassinated this entire run up, it feels like.
30:59
I mean, yeah, I, I, I mean, it's- Whether, whether it's justified or not, I'm not making a judgment on that. Right, correct. But that's, that's what's been happening. It sure feels like it. Yeah.
31:06
And it's, that, is he, oh, he's not that athletic. The arm strength isn't there. It's things that he said in meetings with people. It's, I mean, it's kinda like checking all the negative boxes with him.
31:16
So the only thing I think we know for sure, one through five, is Cam Ward's going one, and Mason Graham is going five to Jacksonville. And, and Drew- We're, we're sure about that?... Drew just backed that up.
31:30
F- Mason Graham, defensive tackle, Michigan, Jacksonville at five. Well, he's even money right now at DraftKings to go number five, so. Okay. Well, I'd make that bet. Boom. I'd make that bet.
31:38
But- I mean, I think that makes a lot of sense... but, but two, three, four, even knowing that Kirk Cousins might be acquired by the Browns, still doesn't really clear it up in the way that you would think it would.
31:50
I would assume, you know what they say about assuming, that that would mean the Browns would go Hunter at two, but then I still don't know what the Giants are doing at three. I really don't.
32:00
I don't know if they would go Abdul Carter. I don't know if they would go Shedeur Sanders. I have no sense of that whatsoever. Yeah, and we've had conflicting stories. You know, you and I have talked about it a bunch.
32:07
We've had conflicting stories on the, y- you know, what, how is the front office, how are Sh- uh, how are Shane and Daboll a- approaching this draft i- in respects to saving, trying to save their jobs going forward, and what's been the mandate from above of how they should h- handle things.
32:23
'Cause I think, I think that got a little far, uh, right, of, of [laughs] hey, these guys are gonna do anything they can s- they can do to save their jobs.
32:29
So drafting players, if you draft a quarterback, you can make the argument, "Hey, we need more time to develop this quarterback." Um, you know, that might be out there. It might not.
32:37
Can I just k- say something that caught my eye here? We have first round position totals. Yeah, I put together a few that I thought- Oh... would catch our eyes. Quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers.
32:45
Can I just go to the running backs one real quick? Yes, under two and a half, minus 260. Ooh, wait a minute. Over two and a half? Oh, no, under two and a half, minus 260, right. That, m- under two and a half, minus 260
33:02
does not seem high enough, does it? No, it sh- feels like it should be minus 1,000. Who's the third running back that's coming out into the first round? I know there's the kid- Yeah...
33:09
from North Carolina, and then you've got, uh, Jeanty, but who the, who the hell's the third? Is there even a single mock out there that has three running backs going in the- Nah... in the first round? Not that I've seen.
33:19
So again- The other-... I, I get it. You don't like to lay minus 260, but minus 260, that should be something way higher, is still value. Yeah. Value's value. This is, and this is the draft, right?
33:28
Sometimes you lay numbers like that, uh, but you're, you're, you're counting on them being way, way higher, or should, uh, should be way higher. It's Jeanty, it's Omarion Hampton from North Carolina, and then who?
33:40
In the first round? Coming back on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
33:57
Gil Alexander, Kelly Middle. I'm doing a lot of this lately with the, with the chair. Oh, me too. S- came scarlet. Oh, scale on my arm. What's happening there? 'Cause it's the, it's the arm... Yeah.
34:06
It's only when I lean that way, too. Hmm. Their, the armrests get in the way. Uh, we got a couple tweets. Uh, Brian Schaefer, Jack Olacire, who we met yesterday. Yes, we did. Jack- Um-... thanks for stopping by...
34:16
both say, uh, "Could Cam Scatabo be the third running back drafted?" He's not being mocked in the first, is he? Well, he could be. I, I haven't- He could. I, I think it's possible... I haven't seen him in any mocks, so.
34:25
All it takes is one team to become enamored of him. Pretty sure he's running, running like a 4.6 or a 4.7. You getting drafted first round with a 4.6 or a 4.7? I don't think so. I, I think it...
34:36
But look, that's, this is another one where we've had this happen i, in years past, right? With certain positions, if there's a run on a position, right? Quarterbacks last year, probably the perfect example.
34:45
Um, I mean, I'm not a believer that Ashton Jeanty's gonna go in that top, what, eight pick. Like, Raiders are gonna pick him that early? Raiders?
34:54
You've got more problems than, uh, too many problems on that roster to, uh, to be picking a running back in the top 10 of the NFL draft, in my opinion. But if that happens, then who knows?
35:03
Maybe there is a run on running backs then. I'd still be willing to bet the minus 260. Me, me too. I'd be willing to bet against that. That's why I put that one together for us.
35:10
I'm glad that you, that same bet jumped out to you- Yeah... 'cause that was the one that jumped out to me.
35:14
And then I know the one guy that you and I have big, big, big fans are, of, uh, the favorite in the first wide receiver selected market, McMillan, our guy there from Arizona.
35:23
He's, he should absolutely be the first wide receiver that's taken.
35:27
And by the way, these are DraftKings numbers, so again, hearkens back to what we said last segment, which is Travis Hunter will not be treated as a wide receiver at DraftKings. Mm-hmm.
35:36
That is a key bit of per book information to know. So that's why Tetairoa McMillan is minus 235. Matthew Golden, speedster from Texas, is plus 170, and Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State right after him.
35:48
I know the, uh, the Commodores, uh, I'll get there, trust me, uh, have become obsessed with Golden a little bit. I don't know if he drops all the way to them, though.
35:55
Um, Egbuka was always mocked for them, so many mocks through the off season. [laughs] But who knows? They're so far down in the draft. So, so, so real quick on the position totals. Yeah.
36:03
I th- I would lean over two and a half on the wide receivers too. Yes. Yes. Because the, Egbuka's been kinda in the back end of the first round basically s- for a year. Curtis Bisbee. Thank you, Curtis.
36:13
Uh, he says, "NFL tabled the seeding rule change-" All right, cool... for later as well. So tush push and seeding got tabled. Gil, I'll be betting McMillan, uh, in this market. I just- Yeah, I don't think so too...
36:23
I don't feel any rush 'cause this, I've, I've been mon- monitoring this a little bit. It opened, this opened like minus 270, minus 280. It's only coming down.
36:30
He was an NFL wide receiver playing college football the whole time he was playing college football. Uh, Jeff Levine, "Boys, boys, more dichotomy. Tush push okay.
36:39
Defender leaping over an offensive player to block a punt, field goal, or extra point gets 15 yards, and a runner who leaps, sometimes backwards, over a defender gets play of the week."
36:48
Um, I agree with you completely, Jeff. That's what I was talking about. That's why, the, the, the argument against the tush push is exactly that.
36:55
It's the, it's the, uh, the different rules given to the offense and defense. He says, "By the way, offensive players who aided a runner via push used to be punished with a penalty."
37:05
And then Ryan Hyatt on this April 1st, he reminds, uh, those of us of a certain age of Sports Illustrated. Are you familiar with the, uh, the former sports writer, George Plimpton, who's no longer with us?
37:15
Does that name mean anything to you? The name is familiar. George Plimpton. He used to do commercials too, but he once in, I think it was April 1st, 19- S- 1985, as Ryan tells us.
37:24
He says, "Curious if 1985 Gil took in the story of Sid Finch on this day. If Finch were around today, how would he have affected your Mets win total?" [laughs] That's so true.
37:33
"Feel free to tell Kelly about George Plimpton's masterpiece."
37:35
So Sports Illustrated, it's hard to, it's hard to tell youngsters, but in the '80s where we didn't have the internet and we didn't have information that readily available, Sports Illustrated was our, was our bible, weekly.
37:47
You waited for it. As a kid, I couldn't wait for it to come.
37:50
And in, uh, or April Fools edition of, uh, well, it was the April 1st edition of 1985, Sports Illustrated ran an article by George Plimpton about this unbelievable New York Mets phenom pitcher by the name of Sid Finch, and it was a full-length article, right?
38:05
And he went into the details, I haven't read it since, by the way, of just the amazing feats of this Mets prospect, and it was a com- it was a complete April Fools joke.
38:15
There, there was like a documentary on him- It was amazing... I believe. It's absolutely amazing. Yeah. I, and I, I've, I've heard and seen the, and seen the story. It is great. Yeah.
38:22
Rhodes, uh, "We all know the Jaguars drafts are ridiculous. I can only figure them to take a tackle to help Lawrence, especially since Tony Boselli is back in the building. They love taking O-line higher than needed."
38:31
So he's saying it won't go to Mason Graham. It'll be an offensive lineman. Um, and then Jim Sjogren, "Big props to Wes and Kelly on their Min Woo Lee golf pick last week. Wes has been on absolute fire this year.
38:41
He used to bet golf on Wednesday afternoon, but now if you haven't bet by Monday morning, you miss the good odds. Cheers." Um, by the way, here's Kelly's, Kelly's crusade to make the torpedo bat into a- Yeah...
38:51
a called- This is my-... bowling pin bat. There you go... deep dive investigation throughout the show. It's just, uh, see, we're shifting the, we're just shifting the weight, right?
38:58
We're shifting where, where the bulk of the wood's going. That looks more like a bowling pin setup to me, Gil, than your modern-day torpedo that would be on the left side of your screen at home.
39:07
Is, is that a modern-day torpedo or did we get a torpedo from way back when? Uh, I, I tried to find the most modern-day torpedo picture I could, yes. Oh. All right. So I, I don't get it, Gil.
39:15
We just, we, we're, we're too, we're too manly. We can't just call it the bowling pin bat. All right. That sounds dorky. All right. See if that, see if this gains any traction. We gotta go with torpedo bat.
39:24
Best bets courtesy of G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN, on the show today. Every show, every host, every guest, all their picks recapped courtesy of G-Bank. Um, start with me. Yeah, let's start with me.
39:34
I, uh, I'm glad we bet Duke yesterday. Again, with both of these Final Four games, you can only think that the, the favorites are gonna continue upward.
39:41
Um, so we grabbed Duke yesterday at, uh, minus four and a half here on the show. Duke now, what are they, a five-point favorite consensus? Duke is a, yeah, five-point favorite consensus.
39:52
By the way, Florida up to two and a half. I didn't touch that game, but Duke yesterday on the show. And then today it's a random brain dead bets.
39:57
Um, I'm doing all the overs in the Crown games once again, and I'm probably doing the over in Sacramento for the Athletics game against the Cubbies. Well, I did check. Uh, I ran through those totals earlier.
40:08
So you had three games where the totals moved fairly significantly up three points or more. DePaul, Cincinnati first game, Colorado, Villanova, Tulane, USC.
40:18
Didn't matter what number you got 'em at yesterday, all went over. Kelly, what do you got? Uh, two for me. Well, Duke, we talked about already. Made that yesterday late four and a half. And then I am oppo sort of Drew.
40:29
Warriors laying three. I w- laid on the overnight. A huge game tonight, uh, like you said, for seeding purposes. Grizzlies coming off that back-to-back, uh, playing their guys late against the Celtics last night.
40:40
Look, I'm laying three at the Warriors. He's taking six with the S- with the Grizzlies, so, uh, plenty of room there in the middle. All right. We also have bets from Will Hill.
40:47
He's on, uh, his way to fade the Dodgers is to take Chris Sale over five and a half strikeouts.
40:53
Not fading the Dodgers, but in his way to fade them, he's doing it by their opposing pitcher going over five and a half strikeouts. That's Chris Sale today. Mark Borchardt with a parlay.
41:04
Twins, and the Twins white socks over. Plus 196 is what that pays today as the Twins try to get off the schneid with their first win of the season in five tries.
41:14
And then Joe Peeta, again, uh, Joe Peeta had the audacity to go two and two yesterday. Uh, but he's eight and three on the season for just under five units to the positive here on the show.
41:23
He's got four days on the Yankees minus 111 versus the Diamondbacks, a little interleague play. He's oppo Borchardt on the White Sox Twins game. He's on the Chi Sox at plus 150.
41:32
He's on the Brewers minus 116 versus the Royals. And the Braves, he's fading the Dodgers with the Braves tonight at plus 120 as the six and oh Dodgers remain undefeated heading into tonight's tussle.
41:45
Paul Carr trying to, trying for his third straight three and oh in the Premier League. This is a midweek version.
41:52
Today, if you're looking for some midday action, he's got the Fulham double chance plus 185 at Arsenal, Nottingham Forest plus 135 versus Man U, and then tomorrow the under two and a half goals in the Liverpool Everton match.
42:07
Those are from Paul. And then do we have any others? I think we do. Drew Dincic. Drew. Yes. He is oppo you on the Grizzlies, huh, tonight? Mm-hmm.
42:13
He's, uh, Grizzlies plus six versus the Dubs and the T-Wolves plus two and a half versus the Nuggets in two very consequential Western Conference games here on April 1st.
42:24
So that time of year in the basketball season, by the way, do you think Oklahoma City is gonna, uh, shut it down after, you know, once the final two games roll around when they have it all clinched? Mm.
42:34
Home, home court in the, in the finals. I, no, I think it depends. I, I mean, you know, is, is 70 still up for grabs?
42:40
70 will still be, like in the scenario where 70 will still be up for grabs, but they will have clinched home court in a potential NBA final, will they sit their players?
42:49
And by the way, we also said this, even if they sit their players, they still manage to win games somehow. I'm gonna go with no. Okay. If, if it, if it were me, I'd, I'd tell, I'd tell Chet to sit down.
42:58
And then the other question is, if they win 70, where D- will Dagnall get coach of the year? I think so. Yes. I like it. Uh, best... By the way, did we ever put up my Dagnall, by the way, that I have up there?
43:09
Oh, we, we took it up one day, but- Yeah... it's up there. Uh, we'll, we'll revisit that. Best bets brought to you by G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
43:15
G-Bank upping the ante with up to seven, a $750 bonus for new G-Bank Visa signature card customers. First, new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
43:28
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at visin.com/gbank.
43:40
That's visin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. I only got, only got Dagnall at 50 to one as opposed to the 200 to one that Drew was talking about- Yep... that very morning. It's crazy.
43:52
Yeah. That, that moved quick. That moved quick. And I'm the, and I'm the one who kept harping on the 70 wins. And then we had another major move this past weekend when, uh, the Pistons beat the Cavs.
44:01
When the Pistons beat the Cavs. Um, we've done all we could do. I think we've done all we could do. Steve Fezzik doesn't like that close in the show, by the way. I don't know.
44:08
We have researched torpedoes and bats- Ooh... NFL rule changes- Changes, yeah... clay courts and where they come from. Sacramento baseball ballpark factor and all that stuff. Uh, Money Moves is next.
44:21
Matt Brown will kick it off in moments right here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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