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Apr 22, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 22, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 22, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. Live from Bar Canada at The D.
0:20
It's Gil Alexander and Kelly Midlin. In case you didn't believe us, we're at Bar Canada at The D. How about some Village People YMCA to start out the morning? Yeah. Get your Monday started right.
0:29
I put in the text to the COO to, uh, see if he can turn that down. [laughs] This is gonna be fun. All right. Uh, while you listen to the jams, uh, we got a show today with Jake Hahn talking NHL playoffs with us.
0:42
Uh, we'll talk, uh, baseball with Mark Borcherd, update our guardians bet of course, uh, when we talk to Mark. Uh, Mike Somich will join us later in the show to talk all things NBA.
0:52
Um, wanna start out the show though, Kelly, if I could. It's just great. Usually I power through, but this is something special this morning. Um, first of all, I just wanna thank Mrs.
1:02
Scheffler for holding it in for one more week. Yeah. Uh, in case you missed it this morning, they, uh, they wrapped up the RBC Heritage. They had a few holes to get to. Kelly's doing the whole YMCA dance.
1:14
Um, so Scottie Scheffler wins the RBC Heritage, and I just wanna say, once again, Kelly, this is Friday night. Collin Morikawa's at the top of the leaderboard. Scheffler had himself a good Friday.
1:27
He's three strokes back. So, you know, brain-dead, I'm like, "Well, I'll just go Morikawa plus 480, and I'll go Scheffler plus 560, and we'll see what happens." And within 24 hours I was a favorite with a plus 560.
1:39
And there you go. Scottie Scheffler, once again, ladies and gentlemen, who two years ago we said on this show, "You should probably bet him every tournament," he said. Confirmed good at golf. He's pretty good at golf.
1:50
So again, there are bets, there are pr- there are markets out there. And by the way, w- I wanna say shout out to Nelly Korda as well.
1:57
Nelly Korda, for those, I did not have a bet on Nelly Korda, but for those who did, she wins her fifth consecutive LPGA tournament. She wins the Chevron Championship by two strokes. Um,
2:10
fifth in a row, that is, that ties the record. Nancy Lopez in 1978 and Annika Sörenstam in th- in, uh, 2004, 2005, five consecutive LPGA tournaments. But I wanna, the Scheffler thing, there are some props out there.
2:23
Scheffler to win every major this year. I saw a 50 to 1 out there. Brady Cannon actually texted me this weekend to tell me about this. 50 to 1, but he says shop around 'cause you might be able to find better.
2:33
The problem with this is Mrs. Scheffler's not gonna be able to hold it in forever, medical term, by the way. And I think- That's right.
2:41
[laughs] I think it's expect- I think she's expected to give birth here within a week or two now. And so the PGA, golf's next major, is at Valhalla May 16th, which is, you know, 24 days away. He's a family man.
2:57
The fly in the ointment of that bet is if he's a new father, which we expect him to be by then, is he even gonna tee it off at the PGA? I don't know that he will. I don't know. It's all gonna p- depend on timing.
3:10
He, he said, so I caught him on Thursday, I think it was, post-round. Said, he said she was due end of this month. So- Same deal... like, like I mean, that'd be like- That's all the bets...
3:20
a week, maybe it gives a couple weeks. A week and change, yeah. I, I, I think as long as there's enough time removed for... I, I, I don't know. I mean, these are all personal plans, right? That they might have.
3:30
I'm just saying, put- And he, he was talking about having it very planned out that they did from the beginning of the season 'cause they knew when their due date was.
3:37
They knew what tournaments they were planning on playing. I think I'd be surprised, but it just depends on the timing. Yeah. A- and having a child changes a human being, right?
3:45
And he's already a guy who's, you know, sta- I don't know. I don't know if he's human. Well, I think he's- Like, like serious. [laughs] On the golf course- He's a machine...
3:52
on the golf course he's not human, but certainly once he gets off it, he's very human, right? He's like, "Ah, golf, whatever," right? He's all about family.
4:00
So I don't know, do you make that bet with that as, with that looming, I guess? It's a tough bet to make because of that one factor. If that didn't exist, I'm not sure I don't make that bet. Why not? Oh, man.
4:13
Yeah, I don't know what number I'd need on that. I'd have to think about that. 50 to 1 still is, I feel like I'd need more than that. I hope you all enj- Three more majors...
4:20
hope you all enjoyed the Village People Supremes beginning to the show. We seem to have gotten taken care of. [laughs] Yeah, we, yeah, I was gonna say, hold on. [laughs] Hold your breath. Hold on. Yeah, that's right.
4:31
All right, but, but I'm just saying that's the problem with that bet. Oh, I spoke too soon. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. [laughs] Um, okay, so that, that's the problem with that bet. So I w- I wouldn't make it because of that.
4:39
I'm just speaking personally, I'm not saying people don't make it. But I wouldn't because of that alone. But it would- Yeah, it's definitely a factor. Yeah. I, I don't know that I'd make it regardless, but. All right.
4:50
Just wanted to shout out. I mean, right now I, [laughs] I, but I can't say it's a dumb bet. The guy's, uh, amazing right now.
4:55
I'm, I'm just saying, getting back to the theme of what, what I have said many times, sometimes sports betting doesn't have to be that hard, and remembering all...
5:03
The, the whole handicap was remembering to bet Scottie Scheffler if he was involved in this tournament at some point, and thankfully Friday night I'm like, "Oh, plus 560? Sure, why not?" [laughs] Yeah. Why not?
5:14
Come on, man, that was... I, I mean, I, pr- impressive tournament.
5:18
A lot of these guys going really low, and big names right at the top of the leaderboard, and just another event where Scottie Scheffler's just a little bit better than everybody else.
5:25
NBA and NHL postseasons began, the playoffs began this weekend. Uh, in case you missed it, a combined 14 and 0 for home teams straight up. First 8 and 0 start in the NBA since 2013.
5:37
First 6 and 0 start in the NHL since 1970. Um, can we flash up, did we, we put that graphic together that I have about, uh, ATS, did we do that? Or I can read it off my phone.
5:48
Um, this is, w- we're not a trends show, but in the NBA, if you put together the postseasons, the playoffs of 2022, 2023, and this beginning of 2024, it is amazing how often the spread does not matter at all.
6:01
Um, does not matter at all. We're already off to a 12 and 2 start. So basically this is a, uh, sort of... cousin to what we talk about during the NFL season. The NFL, 83% of the time, the spread doesn't come into play.
6:15
What that means is that the favorite that wins covers, and that the, or the dog wins outright 83% of the time. And in the po- in the, uh, playoffs, it's higher than that.
6:23
Wild card weekend historically, uh, is the, um, is the biggest example of that where I think it gets to 88%. That dates ba- back all the way to 1978. Well, NBA playoffs, um, it just doesn't matter.
6:37
It just doesn't matter at all. So if you go to, um, 2022, 83 and 9, Kelly. 83. There were 92 playoff games in the NBA. 83 out of those 92 times, the spread did not, did not matter.
6:52
In other words, the favorite won while covering, or the dog won outright. So the only exception are favorites that win but don't cover. So it went 83 and 9 in 2022, in 2022. Last year it went 75 and 15.
7:08
And so far this year, 12 and 2. I'll do the math. That's 170 and 26 over the last three playoffs. 86.73% of the time, the, uh, spread doesn't come into play.
7:22
And so this was one of these weekends, if I just go through them one by one. Take that for what it's worth, by the way. Um, but the first round I would imagine has a lot to do with that.
7:31
So here, here's- It's still interesting. Still, still interesting, yeah. It's, it's still interesting. It's interesting to bring up.
7:34
Cleve TA, I want to hat tip to him 'cause he was the first person I think that made me aware of that. Jason Weingarten reminded me that I had tweeted that out last year.
7:42
Um, here's a, here's a real brief recap, non-guessing line style of the weekend. Cleveland beats Orlando 97 to 83, uh, in the four-five game in the Eastern Conference. Cavs led by 20 in the fourth quarter.
7:56
Uh, Donovan Mitchell had 30. Uh, these are all covers. Minnesota beat Phoenix by 25. Uh, Anthony Edwards went tw- uh, 33, 9 and 6. Gobert went 14 and 16 in the T-Wolves' rout of the Suns.
8:09
Then in a somewhat competitive game, this was the, the most competitive game on Saturday, the Knicks did beat the Sixers by seven. But in defeat, Tyrese Maxey 33, Embiid 29, 8 and 6, Lowry 18.
8:20
Um, the Knicks outscored the Sixers in the second quarter 33 to 12.
8:25
Knicks trailed by three, though, to start the fourth quarter 'cause the Sixers punched them back, and it was a one-point game with just over five minutes left before the Knicks put some distance between themselves and the Sixers.
8:35
Denver then beat the Lakers by 11 on Saturday night. The Lakers led by 12 halfway through the second quarter, and then Denver had it tied a little over three minutes after that.
8:46
It was actually 76-75 Nuggets with under five minutes left in the third quarter, then a 13 to nothing run broke that game open. AD 32, 14 and 5. LeBron 27, 6 and 8 in defeat. Jokic 32, 12 and 7. Murray 22, 6 and 10.
9:00
Porter Jr. with 19 and 8. Gordon with 12 and 11. And then yesterday the routes continued. Boston by 20 in a game that really wasn't that close. Beat the s- Heat by 20, 114 to 94.
9:11
The Celtics led by 15 at the half, by 32 after three. There was a point there where Miami almost covered. Looked like they were gonna cover the spread late. Yep. Clippers crushed the Mavericks.
9:22
The final score was only 12, but they led by 12 after the first quarter, by 26 at the half after a 22 to eight second quarter. Doncic 33, 13 and six. Kyrie 31, seven and four in defeat. Harden 28.
9:35
Uh, excuse me, yeah, Harden with 28. Uh, Paul George with 22. Zubac 20 and 15. Then Milwaukee crushed Indiana 109 to 94. Season low for the Pacers, 94 points. Bucks led by nine after the first, by 27 at the half.
9:50
Only by 12 after the third, but it was back to 20 just over three minutes into the fourth. Lillard 35 in the first half, zero in the second. Yeah, I was thinking about anybody who bet, bet alts out there on him.
9:59
Oh, brutal. Todd, we shouldn't have did it. Like, you know, went 40 plus and stuff like that. Todd, Todd had an in-game over 40 and a half. Oh, man. Yeah, that's right. And then last night, finally we got a game. Yep.
10:08
OKC beats New Orleans 94 to 92. New Orleans had multiple chances to go up two possessions at 90 to 88. Then they got four chances to break a 90 to 90 tie, four offensive rebounds. Couldn't do anything with it.
10:21
Holmgren's block set up an SGA, uh, uh, you know, his patented in-the-lane jumper, and he got fouled. That was a three-point play.
10:30
It ended up with CJ McCollum missing a three with one second left, and the Thunder holds on. They escape with a victory in that game.
10:40
That was really the only competitive game down the stretch, with apologies to the Knicks and the Sixers. By the way, Fastbreak Breakfast puts this out.
10:47
These are the Pelicans' possessions from 3:34 left to 32 seconds left. Turnover, turnover, turnover, missed shot that was blocked, turnover, four missed shots on one possession. It was really gross. Last one blocked.
10:57
Like, it, it, it was a fun ending 'cause that game was close, but oh my God was it ugly basketball by both of those teams.
11:03
It, uh, it did scream of youth being on the court in a high-pressure situation, and, uh, you know, neither one of these teams with a ton of experience there, and it showed. Which of those series
11:16
do you think is just a one-off, and that the team that got beat actually has a chance to win it, and which of those do you think, "Nah, that's just how it's gonna be"? Well, Celtics, uh, the latter.
11:26
And I'll say, I'll s- I'll stick with Mavericks. I'll stick with Ma- That, that, that blew my mind yesterday, that one-off. You think that's the one-off? Yes. And that was without Kawhi- Yes... who was announced out.
11:37
We'll look at tonight's games coming up as well. Three in the NBA, four in the NHL, continuation of two series to begin. We'll do that with Jay Cohn. A little baseball on the other side with Mark Borchardt.
11:48
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. A numbers game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
12:00
Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with the free VSiN daily newsletter In today's newsletter Yeah, we got a lot of stuff for the NBA.
12:10
Get all pumped for that and much, much more NFL draft style picks. Style. Slap alley. Style. [laughs] NFL draft style. Expert picks and analysis, betting strategies, latest odds and trends.
12:21
[laughs] Thanks to VSiN's top reads latest podcast, Bill, 80s night becomes your mornings. VSiN.com/newsletter. Sign up for free. It's Gil Alexander. It's, uh, Kelly Bidlin.
12:33
[laughs] And how should you bet on a team as bad as the White Sox? Well, we're- That's in the newsletter. Oh, that's in the newsletter. [laughs] Oh, so someone actually...
12:43
We got t- we get tweets that beat in the book 'cause someone worried about the dud. Johnny Millionaire, "Let's go Guardians," he says, which we'll get to here momentarily.
12:49
He goes, "How's my White Sox worst record at five to one looking? Darn those Rockies."
12:54
Uh, right now the, uh, the Marlins, White Sox, and Rockies are the three worst teams in baseball, so it really is a jockeying for position. But the White Sox are in the driver's seat, if you will.
13:04
The bizarro driver's seat for that. I believe in the Marlins. Early in the season. I believe in them every year in this- Yeah... uh, in this, uh, market.
13:11
James Sott, "Not many things worse than being in the office and unable to listen to Gil and Kelly, especially after a Guardian sweep draft talk and maybe a little tennis." Uh, this is from PAW.
13:21
"As I said like two years ago, just bet on Nelly Korda every single tournament." [laughs] Johnny Ringo, "Worst DJ ever. Gil talks through all the tunes. Go Guardians."
13:30
[laughs] "Stringfellow Hawk, I imagine there's a volume knob somewhere that has Weekend and Gil on it, and they forgot to turn it back to Gil for this morning." Yeah, maybe. We'll look into it. We're, we're trying.
13:44
Um- That's why I got distracted. I, I, I saw someone. I'm gonna be leaving you here in a minute. Uh, Chris Felika has texted.
13:50
He goes, "So, would you suggest a strategy of playing," talking about the, the trends of the NBA playoffs that we were just talking about.
13:56
He goes, "So would you suggest a strategy of playing the dog on the money line and favorite ATS in all games?" Certainly the first part of that.
14:04
I think if you have a lean on the dog, ATS, you definitely should be sprinkling on the money line. Let's put it that way. I'll, I'll- Yeah... I'll allow for that. I agree. I think my- Yeah...
14:14
I think just my personal betting it, it does start a pl- at least start of the playoffs kind of turns back to start of the season, right, where you are, you're playing more money lines with, with, with taking numbers with dogs.
14:25
I think that that makes sense. JVT had a good tweet this weekend, too, about going back, uh, going back over what home court's really been worth the past few years, uh, in the playoffs. Thought it was interesting.
14:36
He c- he attacked it from a net rating, um, uh, standpoint, but it was really, uh, kind of showing it's, it's closer to four, maybe even over four of what you're factoring in for home court right now.
14:46
Biggest, biggest thing that, uh, we were noticing in the group chat about the NBA, it's a quick reminder of how the playoffs are officiated differently than regular season. Oh, absolutely.
14:54
They will let you get away with the mugging. Yep. So I think, like, instincts to bet in game overs ought to be tampered.
15:00
My, my problem with it, from what I- we've seen from the play-in games till, till, till yesterday, is that they are absolutely letting guys get away with more, even more than they were post All-Star Break- Yeah...
15:10
but nothing's consistent. That's right. It started post All-Star Break. The, the problem is there's a, there's an inconsistency right now in the foul calling, which isn't that always our biggest problem?
15:18
I don't really care which way you call it, just call it consistent. Call it consistently. All right, let's bring in Mark Borchardt from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert.
15:24
You can follow him at Basewinner, basewinner.com. And of course, he does the Bet US podcast each and every day for Major League Baseball. Uh, he joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:34
And speaking of Progressive, Mark, Progressive Field in Cleveland, may I start with the Guardians bet and get you to chime in on this, please, sir? Yeah, go ahead. Uh, first of all, how are you? You good? Yeah?
15:45
Everything all good? I'm do- I'm doing good.
15:47
Uh, I was thinking about the Guardians the other day, actually, and I, I think that it's the first time in the history of Major League Baseball where the, where teams let off playing the Oakland A's 15 times.
15:58
[laughs] Well, this was the handicap, right? So when this market w- you know, when I noticed this market the day before the Major League Baseball season started, March, April, most wins, was available here at Circa.
16:09
Uh, I think it was available at DraftKings as well, and J-Rod on Twitter told me that the, the tiebreaker rules are different at DraftKings. He said that DraftKings is a dead heat on these.
16:18
Where I got it at Circa, the tiebreaker is fewest losses followed by run differential. There's two-tier, uh, tiebreaker. Yeah, you know, it does depend on the book, 'cause I...
16:27
That Dodgers to 10, I actually got p- I got paid on a dead heat on that. Right. And I didn't think I did, and, and I looked. I said, "Okay, what? Wow." And they, when they graded it, I got a dead heat, so you're right.
16:36
So it's good that we bring that up. That's right, 'cause the Pirates played that morning to get to 10. Had they gotten it, they would've been first, but if it's a dead heat, it's a dead heat.
16:42
It doesn't matter what time of day. It was Ya- yeah, it was Yankees to 10, and then I thought I'd lost it, and then a couple days later I look in my account and it's like, wow, I, I got a dead heat on that.
16:51
I'll take it, you know? So, cool. So the handicap, the handicap for me on the Guardians, the, the biggest point was they played 17 games. I actually said this. We have the, uh, video of it.
16:58
Uh, they played 17 games against the Athletics, seven against the A's, three against the White Sox, and seven against the Red Sox, who I have rated lower than most people do. And so that was the big part of my handicap.
17:10
And right now with three games left against the Red Sox, in those 14 games against those three teams, they are 11 and three. 11 and three. So it's going exactly how I hoped it would and, and thought that it would.
17:25
And so that has buoyed them to a 16 and six record. They still have seven games left. Here's the thing, though. By the way, the teams that are f- that are chasing them, Yankees, Brewers, Braves, Orioles, Phillies.
17:36
It's like the best teams in baseball, who's who of the best teams in baseball. Though we are in the lead, like, though that i- if it had ended today, we'd win, but Guardians don't control their own destiny.
17:48
The Yankees do. Yankees, and that is because the Guardians lost the game to Rain in Minnesota. And so the Yankees begin a four-game set this morning against the Athletics.
17:57
And, um, it's just an am- it's just a fun market. I think, I hope we're gonna get there, but it's a long way from being over. If they go 0 and three against the Red Sox, it's over.
18:06
If they go one and two against the Red Sox, it's probably over. But if you go two and one and three and O, and then we are on the doorstep.
18:12
And so I just wanna point out, have you ever, have you ever made a bet in this kind of market? I will say this again.
18:18
Even for those who didn't have the conviction that I did, it's such a great market to just have something and to immerse yourself in the Major League Baseball season. Oh, it's a really cool market.
18:29
The, the Race to 10 is the first time I did the Race to 10 this, this year, and it was super fun. Um, I think that that's, you know, it just goes to show you kind of like how the sports betting market's evolved.
18:43
And so you have these really cool markets, and, and, and one of the things that I'm excited about is I, I wish, I wish I would've known what I was talking about. I could have, like, modeled it for you.
18:50
But of course my model doesn't like the Guardians, so. But you can model this actually, you know, and, and, and they're fun markets, Gil. I really love them. Yeah. Well, I, I modeled it in my head, Mark.
19:00
Uh, schedule and- No, no, no. You know what? Yeah. You put a lot of work into it. Yeah. I was like, wow, he, he really took a lot of steps here.
19:05
But one of the things I think that's, that's important to note is the Guardians haven't really gotten lucky. If you, if you look at the implied- They have not...
19:12
percentage based on weighted runs created plus, expected minus, defensive runs saved, they're, they're number one in baseball. It's go, goes Guardians, Orioles, Braves. So, uh, you know.
19:20
In fact, in fact, they've gotten unlucky 'cause Shane Bieber only got to start two games, and then he got To- and then he had to have Tommy John surgery. They lost the game in Minnesota.
19:28
And the way the Yankees have pulled out some of these games late, I mean, my goodness. Um, so everything has kind of gone against us, and then, then here we are, still in it. Um, so let's see. Let's see what happens.
19:41
Guardians are off today. Uh, they resume with a three-game set in Cleveland against the Red Sox tomorrow. Uh, what did you play today, sir?
19:49
You know, I, um, I played a parlay, and I think that this Detroit-Tampa Bay game is, is a really good spot for Skubal and the Tigers in the first five. I've got Skubal number one on my base- base winner ratings.
20:03
You know, over the last 150 plate appearances, he is best in baseball, 35.7% strikeout percentage, adjusted for park factors, that sort of thing.
20:14
And then you have the Tampa Bay Rays, and I practiced this before the show. Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe, you, you pronounce them differently, Gil.
20:22
[laughs] But they both are, they both are very important, uh, you know, cogs in the wheel, if you were, of the Rays offense, and they're both out. So the Rays are a little bit banged up.
20:31
I am high on the Rays, but not in this spot, especially in the first five. So I put that first leg of the base winner parlay. You gotta have a base winner parlay when you go on Gil's show, and I do.
20:41
And the second game's gonna be the Blue Jays with Kikuchi, and it's a peculiar number. I've got Kikuchi sixth out of 157 pitchers, and I thought, gosh, I hope that's not a math mistake. Wow.
20:51
But if you look at his, if you look at his strikeout percentage, Gil, 31.3%. It's in the 95th percentile.
21:00
His walk rate's about league average, and ground ball percentage a little bit above league average from a good side. So I like that. I like the Blue Jays.
21:06
I think this Royals team, while they have performed very well, I, I, I look for that to regress. And then you couple that with Singer's the plus 2 percentile, I think that's a good opportunity.
21:17
You know, you put them in a parlay, Gil, it pays plus 260. And then the other game that I like today, you know, when you mentioned, guys, the White Sox, and I was on the White Sox, uh, worst record in baseball.
21:28
That's looking pretty sweet right now. But if you look at their implied... Now, this is interesting. You look at their implied win percentage, uh, it's 4.5 wins.
21:37
They have three, but the next team, uh, is the Marlins with 7.2 wins. So, so what they've produced, not only is it bad in the standard standings, but it's bad in the a- uh, you know, implied standings as well.
21:49
Weighted runs created plus 63, FIP minus 117. And, uh, you know, you got this Jonathan Cannon, which is a really good name for a pitcher. I don't know if he's ready to go, uh, quite yet.
22:02
Uh, 11% worse than average from a pitching standpoint. I've got the, the White Sox bullpen 30th in baseball, the offense 30th in baseball.
22:10
One interesting stat about the Twins, Gil, you know, their bullpen is best in baseball from a minus BB percentage, and that's scary 'cause Duran is, is still injured.
22:20
So I think this Twin's gonna regress to the good, uh, you know, long term, and I like them today, Gil. Mark, always appreciate it. Thank you so much. My, my pleasure, Gil. Thanks a lot. Mark Borchardt at Basewinner.
22:32
Basewinner.com. Of course, the, uh, Bet US podcast that he does courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Kelly has taken care of the music, y'all. It's quiet at the Bar Canada. We'll come back.
22:44
NBA awards finalist and one glaring omission coming up. Numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
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22:59
The VSiN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes so you can change- you can see changes, rather, in all the action, find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets and where the money does not match the public opinion.
23:09
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23:20
Don't strike out on potential winnings. Visit vsin.com/splits and start making smarter baseball bets today. Skill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D, brought to you by DraftKings. We get tweets.
23:31
Chris Heath, "I'm an A's fan. It's rough. But the next four days, I'm really an A's fan." Chris Heath on, uh, the, uh, Guardians bet with us.
23:39
And then Chilly Gambler said, uh, "Loving the Motown, uh, Monday vibe on ANG, but not too sure about the Elvis that was thrown in there." Well, Kelly took care of it. Thank you, Kelly Bidlin. Yeah. What'd you do?
23:49
You just throw around your muscle? What'd you do? I don't know. [laughs] Just, just, just ran downstairs, like waving my arms around basically. Yeah. If you look crazy enough, someone will help you.
24:00
Someone will help you. Someone, yeah, someone will pay attention to you. It's a staple. Yeah, exactly.
24:03
Um, so by the way, I just want to say this about Chris Heath, and I, I don't want to, 'cause I know there's tons of people on the Guardians bet with us, and I, I know they're like hoping to go through a whole thing on it.
24:10
So I don't want to, I don't want to go too crazy, right? Because there's still seven games left. But trust me when I say this, it is a daily obsession, and today is root against day since the Guardians don't play.
24:21
The beauty of it, remember now that we got the three against the, the Red Sox, and then it becomes what was always the tough four games at the end. Three at Atlanta, one at Houston.
24:30
But the nice part about the Yankees side of it from our perspective is after the Yankees play the A's four times, they're gonna have to go at Milwaukee and at Baltimore.
24:39
So, um- It's not all bad in terms of what remains on the schedule. This is gonna be fantastic. And right now, again, the Guardians at plus 52, the biggest run differential. That's not bad.
24:51
And, uh, matching the lowest number of losses in terms of the tiebreakers. Uh, those are the tiebreakers, fewest losses, again, and the largest run differential. So looking good there.
25:01
By the way, the Yankees are the team that controls their destiny once again.
25:04
The other team, along with the Guardians, is the Brewers, could theoretically, this is bizarro, if everybody won out, the Brewers could, would get in a tie with the Guardians, but they would not win the tiebreaker because of run differential most likely.
25:16
So it's really the Yankees are still the team that controls their own destiny. And until we control our own destiny, I'll just leave it at that. It's still a little odd to me that it's not a dead heat.
25:26
Like, w- I mean- It's a dead heat at DraftKings apparently, I'm told. Okay. Okay. Yeah, yeah. I- Not here at Circa though.
25:30
Yeah, I, I guess that's a little odd to me, but, uh, I mean, you're obviously not complaining right now. Nope. Just borrowed them for a month, Adam Burke. [laughs] Again, Giants wondering where that's going.
25:39
Oh, no, again, they named the, they made the logo after you, bro. Yeah. Yeah. Gills, Guardians, a G on either side. NBA games tonight, Kelly Bidlin. We got three. We got game two of the Magic and the Cavs.
25:50
Cavs are favored by five and a half once again. Once again. Then we got game two between the Sixers and the Knicks. I am not seeing a line posted currently.
25:58
Well, that would be because of, one, I just tried to get another bet in, uh, but couldn't at five. It's now five and a half, six. Um, apparently Tyrese Maxey is a little, little under the weather- Oh my God...
26:11
if you will. Are you kidding me? Uh, he missed shoot around this morning, uh, with an illness. Is being listed as questionable for the game tonight. Uh, a wa- a- as well as Joel Embiid.
26:20
Um, I guess, I, I mean, that's the major storyline here, obviously. I guess I would expect him to play. Uh, I, I mean, I would expect both of them out there.
26:28
I'm not really betting it like either one of them is w- either one of them is gonna miss the game, be shocking. I mean, Maxey would have to be on his deathbed to miss this game tonight, I would think.
26:36
Um, i- that was, it was real- I mean, that was a fascinating game on Saturday, Gil. It was, NBA-wise, was about a break even weekend for me. I had a big, big bet on the Knicks. We talked about that on Friday.
26:47
A big bet on Knicks. Um, Sunday was not good for me. But big bet on the Knicks, and it was... I got back in live after Em- after Embiid went down.
26:55
I mean, the first quarter and a half I'm sitting there and going, "This is not the same Joel Embiid I just saw three days ago on the play-in game where it looked like the guy could barely move, was winded."
27:05
He looked incredible until he went down again going for that put back, and then the second half looked like a g- looked like a guy who couldn't really do much out there again. So I...
27:14
look, I'm bet- I bet the Knicks again in game two. I, I laid five on the opener, I believe is what it was. It's out to five and a half, six now. Um, four and a half and five I laid yesterday.
27:24
Um- How about when Embiid got hurt in the, late in the first half, and they went to the, uh, halftime, and, uh, Stephen A was, uh, "Let me be very clear, the Sixers cannot,
27:34
cannot count on Joel Embiid the rest of this playoffs." And then, like, Embiid's shooting a three-pointer three seconds into the second half, he never missed a second. I, I, I don't know though.
27:42
I mean, he didn't look like the same guy. The sec- the second half he looked like he was hobbled again. He, he twinked it at one point. Ri- ri- Yeah... I mean, he looked like he was hobbled again.
27:49
So I think it's, from what you've seen the past two games, I think it's very hard to figure out what you should expect out of Joel Embiid.
27:57
But if, I, I mean, I'll go back to I guess what my handicap was from game one, a lot of, "Hey, if what I saw last of him is what rolls into this next game, he's not providing much." Meanwhile, the Knicks played...
28:08
Uh, they couldn't sh- they, they couldn't hit anything. They, their shooting was terrible. It was in the 30s. Um, it, it was really poor half court offense from them. Jalen Brunson couldn't get going at all.
28:17
I don't expect that to fully continue.
28:19
But one thing I do expect to continue, as long as Joel Embiid is, i- is beat up, is the Knicks dominating the Sixers on the boards, giving them second pos- second possessions, third possessions.
28:29
So I, I do like the Knicks tonight. That's, that is my one bet on this, uh, card tonight. Yeah, and we'll have Mike Somich on later.
28:35
And again, we have that, you know, I set that Celtics total number of losses in the Eastern Conference playoffs at five and a half. But then since then, since we had that discussion, first Giannis goes down the next day,
28:49
then, uh, Em- uh, Jimmy Butler goes down, Embiid re-aggravates. So it's like, and now you're telling me Tyrese Maxey might not play tonight. It's like the whole thing is, uh, one big- It's cr- it's crazy.
28:59
Yeah, but the third game tonight is the Nuggets again, seven-point favorites over the Lakers.
29:03
And that, that to me, of all, you know, when I asked you the question at the end of last segment where I'm like, "Okay, which of those results, which of these myriad of ridiculous blowout results in the NBA this weekend, which of that is what w- w- which of those is what we can expect moving forward is gonna be the norm?
29:17
Or which was the one-off?" And you said the Mavericks. You're still sticking with the Mavericks as- Mm... the one-off result.
29:23
I feel like the Nuggets, Lakers, and I know a lot of people wanna believe in the Lakers, but I feel like no matter how well they play, and we talked about it, they were up in the second quarter, right?
29:33
The Lakers on the, uh, on the Nuggets. They were up by 12 halfway through the second quarter, playing as well as they could.
29:40
It was, it was a one-point game with under five minutes left in the third quarter, but you just know the run is inevitable. And I just feel like no matter how well they played, AD couldn't have played better, dude. Yeah.
29:50
32, 14, and five. LeBron, 27, six, and eight. But so what? Jokic is like, "Well, I'm just gonna drop a 32, 12, and 7 on you." Murray was 22, six, and 10. Porter Jr, 19 and eight. Gordon, 12 and 11.
30:01
I just feel like the Nuggets will roll them no matter what. Yeah, I think it was 86 points that, uh, Jamal Murray or Nikola Jokic p- scored or assisted on. I mean, it is... When, when they're rolling, they're rolling.
30:14
I, I think you put it perfectly. It's the, uh, I was on Will's podcast yesterday, uh, Should've Been More. The, uh, that was...
30:20
He asked me the question, "Do you think there's a better chance they sweep them or if the Lakers win two games?" Didn't give me the option of one. I went with two. I don't know, though.
30:29
Um, it, it just feel-- I think what we saw the other night, kind of like you're talking about, Gil, it feels a whole lot like we saw in the Western Conference finals a year ago, where even LeBron and AD Yeah, they, they could play as well as they want and it still feels like it's not gonna be good enough That's right And I think the one difference, one difference this year, 'cause I th- I found this, this factor ver- really interesting going into this series, is we saw D'Angelo Russell get cooked last year, and they targeted him.
30:54
Jamal Murray targeted him time after time. And this year it's, oh, okay, you don't really have that guy. You get- D'Angelo Russell's been so good on offense for them the past couple months.
31:05
If you pull him out of the lineup, you're losing on the offensive side, and you don't really have that guy on the bench that's significantly better than him defensively.
31:14
So you kinda gotta live with it, and I, I think they're gonna keep doing [laughs] that.
31:19
But it's, like, the only way the Lakers have to steal a co- w- only way they're going to steal a couple games is their offense has to be near perfect. And they were a top five offense, uh, at, from the All-Star break.
31:29
They have to be near perfect and outscore the Nuggets. That is the only way they're winning games. NBA Awards finalists were announced. For those of you who have Jaylen Williams Most Improved Player tickets, guess what?
31:40
He's not a finalist. Was that surprising to you? At all? Um, yes and no. I don't e- you know, Shane Gunn ends up as the third finalist. He's the odd, the one that sticks out.
31:51
Uh, but, man, he had, he had such a good season going until the injury occurred. I think you could justify... I, I, I, I think I can understand that.
32:00
I think it's just another clear indicator of we're not gonna, we're not gonna consider a guy in his second year.
32:05
I mean, I, I think there are, these are some of, some of these NBA guideline rules that we kinda talk about you see play out sometimes. The unspoken. Yeah, unspoken rules The unspoken rules.
32:13
Uh- And him, him not even making the top three I think is notable. Nothing else is really surprising, though, in terms of, uh, finalists. I, I do wanna show this. The Athletic did an anonymous NBA poll.
32:23
Defensive Player of the Year, did you see this? The anonymous NBA players poll? Yeah. Uh, Victor Wembanyama in a landslide. Still's not gonna win it, is he? In a landslide, Victor Wembanyama.
32:34
Um, by the way, coupled with also who's the most, who's the league's most overrated player, and they put Rudy Gobert in this anonymous poll, got 13.6. But I do wonder in, in fairness, is that just who they dislike?
32:46
Oh, yeah, it's completely- It's just a popularity poll... yeah, it's completely. So it's g- the most overrated is Gobert, 13.6. Jordan Poole right after that. Uh, and he- I missed the other one, my bad.
32:56
Oh, the other one, you, you missed it. Yeah, I thought you sent me twice. I didn't realize it was a different poll. [laughs] Oh, no, sir. So the, uh, the, yeah, 13.6 in the overrated.
33:03
Jordan Poole 8.- 8.6, Trae Young 7.4. That just sounds like who they dislike as a human. It's a little bit overrated, but no, it's mainly who do these guys dislike, yeah. Yeah, but who's the best defender?
33:14
Victor Wembanyama 15.2%, Jrue Holiday 12.9%, Lou Dort 9.8%. Do you want me to keep going till we get to Rudy? Uh, Herb Jones 8.3%. Jaden McDaniels 8.3%. Oh, there's Rudy, 6.0%.
33:28
[laughs] For what it's worth, our, our Victor ticket is probably not gonna get home based on early results. Um, but the Jaylen Williams omission reminds one of Spencer Strider there, so there you go. We'll come back.
33:40
Hockey with Jake Hohn. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
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34:06
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34:21
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlow, live from Bar Canada at the D. Uh, after the show today, I am doing an NFL draft podcast, Kelly, Beating the Book NFL Draft Podcast. That should be good.
34:31
Vegas Refund, Luke Swain, and Drew Dincic. Ooh, nice. And we- There we go... and we have
34:39
sort of caucused before the podcast because obviously you don't wanna just talk about bets we've already made that aren't available anymore at current prices. Mm-hmm.
34:48
So we have definitely tailored it to stuff that is here and now available today. Um- That's a good call. Yeah. We should caucus more often. We should do that before the show more often. [laughs] Caucus.
35:00
Nothing like a good solid caucus. Yeah. They love it in Iowa. They do. I'll tell you that much. They really do.
35:05
Uh, tennis, by the way, at vsin.com/bets, uh, every bet made by every host and every guest on this network, no matter the sport, is at vsin.com/bets for survivor.
35:15
Uh, four clay tennis winners in a row have brought us back to our season highs in tennis. Nice. Um, but i- they're in Madrid this weekend, next weekend. It's qualies today, so no tennis plays today.
35:26
Still in the qualifiers. Okay. Uh, Jake Hohn, our hockey guest, ladies and gentlemen, is a noted hockey bettor, but also bets some golf and tennis.
35:34
He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Gas Line, co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on Sirius XM NHL. You can follow him at jhon4. That's the number four. What's happening, Jake? Not too much, guys.
35:45
Uh, like you said, uh, clay court tennis season is in full swing now as we get ready for Roland Garros. Doing well there, not so much o- on the golf course as we talked a little bit before I, I jumped on here.
35:55
Scottie Scheffler, uh, unless you're betting him, uh, or people are betting him like you are, Gil, congrats on, on the hit there. Uh, you're getting b- basically cleaned out in golf.
36:03
So I am happy that NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs are here, uh, right now, because it's al- always a great time of the year, and especially the, the first round, there's a lot of options to, to get into.
36:12
Okay, so the NHL playoffs began this weekend. Six of the eight, uh, uh, series have begun, and it was not unlike the NBA. Uh, Bruins were a favorite against the Maple Leafs in the, uh, 3-6. They won five to one.
36:25
Canes were a minus 250 favorite against the Islanders in the, uh, 5-4 in the East. They won three to one. That was on Saturday. Then yesterday, Canucks took down the Predators four to two.
36:36
They were a minus 145 favorite in the 2-7 in the West. Um, the Jets and Avalanche was cool That was a seven to six- Yeah... shootout, uh, in the four-five game in the West, Jets winning that.
36:47
That was a min-- They were minus 110, so that was, uh, the coin flip game, and it was really a coin flip in the end. And then the other two East series, uh, were also, you know, went as expected.
36:56
Rangers were a big favorite against the Caps. They beat 'em four to one. Caps didn't look good. And then the Panthers, uh, as a minus 165 favorite against the Lightning, they won that three to two.
37:06
Um, of those six results, before we get to the four games today, of those six results, which is the one that sorta was the most noteworthy to you?
37:16
I'll ask the same question of, of hockey, of you of, in hockey as I did Kelly earlier in NBA.
37:20
Which to you was like, "Okay, yeah, we're gonna see that happen more often than not in this series," or which is the one where you're like, "Well, that might just be a one-off"?
37:29
Yeah, the year of chalk, uh, continues, at least early on in these series, guys, right? We're seeing it. We just talked about Scottie Scheffler. He wins every single week.
37:36
The Yukon men's basketball team, they were chalk. They went on this big run, and now, you know, we're kind of seeing it early in the NBA and NHL playoffs.
37:42
Again, we're just getting started in these series, so things can flip very quickly and, you know, home teams still have work to do. You got two games to, to, to start off your series.
37:50
You wanna win both of them to protect your home court or home ice advantage in this situation.
37:55
I, I think the two Metro Division Series, uh, the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Rangers winning, those I expect to be quick series.
38:02
Now, uh, the Hurricanes who, who play again, uh, tonight, we can get into that game a little bit as well against the Islanders, they had some troubles against the New York Islanders.
38:10
I think that one actually stood out to me. Ultimately, they found a way to win the game, but it didn't look the way that I expected it to look. So the Rangers looked completely dominant.
38:18
Uh, Gil, you mentioned that Avs-Jets game, which was just incredible from an entertainment standpoint, by far the best game of the weekend, because it was kind of dull up to that point, not a lot of excitement.
38:27
So that game injected a lot of life into the playoffs. And I'll say out of all the favorites that won, I think the most important was the Vancouver Canucks.
38:34
A lot of people doubting this team, including myself, going into the playoffs. They, they get down in that game.
38:39
It looks like Nashville's the better team for the most part, and they find a way to grind it out in the third period.
38:44
So I thought a, an impressive win for the Canucks to maybe silence some of the critics, at least for the time being.
38:49
Uh, our buddy Chris Felica, The Bear from Fox Sports, uh, said to me this weekend, he said, uh, "Gil, the, uh, Caps," and I think he called me a, a horrible name while he was saying this to me.
38:58
Uh, he said, uh, "The Caps are the worst playoff team in the history of the, uh, Stanley Cup playoffs." Is that true? I, uh... It's har- Honestly, it's hard for me to disagree.
39:06
I'm sure there's been, I'm sure there's been a few.
39:08
If we really go back and dig deep, I bet we could find a couple that snuck into the playoffs that had absolutely no business being in there, but they have to be in that conversation.
39:16
I mean, you look at the goal differential from this season, and, uh, I mean, I was following this Eastern Conference playoff race very closely the last month of the season. It didn't feel like anybody really wanted it.
39:26
Pittsburgh actually goes on a great run, but they dug themselves such a hole that it was too little too late.
39:30
Ultimately, I felt like if the Penguins or the Red Wings got in, we would've had a much more entertaining first round series against the New York Rangers. The Caps, there's just not a lot there, uh, to get excited about.
39:40
I think their only hope of winning a game or two in this series would be on the back of their goaltender, uh, Charlie Lindgren, who kept them in it as long as he could, um, on Sunday afternoon, but they're just, uh, they're outmatched in that, in that Rangers series.
39:51
I, I don't expect that going longer than five games. Wow, I thought it was very aggressive of Felica, but maybe not so much. Uh, okay, today, four games. Two, uh, the f- two of them are games two, if you will.
40:03
The Bruins, uh, with the one to nothing lead over the Leafs. The Leafs, I don't know if you know this, Jake, trying to win their first Cup since 1967. Uh, Bruins are minus 138.
40:12
Canes, the Hurricanes, minus 245 in game two. They're already up one to nothing against the Isles. Any thoughts on those two? Yeah.
40:21
Well, uh, I, yes, I have heard about the fact that the Leafs haven't won since 1967, and, uh, and people don't like- [laughs]... to get reminded, uh, here in the city of, of Toronto.
40:29
But didn't get off to a good start o- on Saturday. Um, I actually thought they played a pretty decent game throughout the first half. They hit a post down one nothing. Would've tied the game.
40:38
Boston goes back the other way two-nothing, and then they're kind of chasing it. So, um, I th- I think that they are capable of winning games in this series, and I do still expect this to be a long one.
40:47
Um, ultimately, you, you're never really in trouble un- until you lose a home game. So I, I think the Leafs will keep this one a lot closer tonight. There's just a lot of question marks with the lineup.
40:55
Will William Nylander play? He was out on Saturday. He played all 82 games in the regular season, and then mysteriously out in game one of the playoffs, and that's a big player for them to be missing.
41:05
So I'm staying away from a, a side here, guys. I will go to a player prop. Uh, John Tavares, I was on this on, on Saturday night. It cashed easily over three and a half shots i, in this game.
41:14
Look for him just be around the net trying to bang pucks in. Uh, he loves some of those empty calorie shots. He's not afraid to just shoot it at a goalie's chest.
41:21
So over three and a half shots for, for John Tavares at plus money there. And in the Islanders-Hurricanes game, I mentioned it, I, I was kind of shocked at how well the Islanders played in Carolina.
41:31
Playing in Carolina is just a nightmare. Uh, they have a great home ice advantage.
41:34
Uh, they just play a, a, a really good playoff style that makes it frustrating on o- opposing teams, and I thought the Islanders were the better team for good chunks of that game, uh, in particular the second period.
41:44
So, uh, if you wanna get a little, uh, risky and, and maybe go with the money line, you can. It, again, it is tough to win in Carolina, but I think they can keep this game close.
41:52
So I will play the Islanders on the puck line, uh, at plus one and a half, lay a little bit of juice with that, and, and maybe hope for our first overtime game of the playoffs. Okay.
42:01
I wanna get to the, uh, two series that haven't started yet in a mi- minutes, but, but if you could answer this in 10 seconds.
42:06
Is there a series price, an adjusted series price on any of the teams that are down one-nothing that you would take a flyer on?
42:14
It would be the Nashville Predators for me, because I already liked them going in, and I still saw a lot of great signs from their game.
42:20
They, you know, they lose a, a game on the road, um, and I still felt like they played quite well. So for me it would be the, it would be the Preds. All right.
42:26
Preds, uh, checking in at, uh, hmm, I'm not seeing it listed where I'm looking right now. Uh, we'll get a price for you on that. Okay, two series that have not started that are the night caps tonight.
42:35
First of all, for those around here, obviously they are keyed in on the Vegas Golden Knights. The Stars are minus 140 tonight in game one of that series. I like the Dallas Stars.
42:46
It, it's, it's a little chalky for me, but I do still, I do still, uh, I'm comfortable laying the juice here.
42:52
I suppose you could look to the puck line, uh, and try to get them to win by two to get a little bit of plus money. But, uh, I just like Dallas in this series in general. I think they're gonna be too much, uh, for Vegas.
43:01
I have full respect for the Vegas Golden Knights. They won the Cup last year. Uh, there, there's a lot of question marks with this roster going in, into, into the postseason.
43:08
They're trying to acclimate new players to the lineup that they traded for at the deadline that are coming off injury. Mark Stone, we don't know what his level's going to be at coming off of an injury as well.
43:18
So there's just a lot of question marks with this roster, and I just think Dallas is built for this season, this, th- this playoff run. So I like the Stars game one.
43:25
I like the Stars in the, uh, in the series here as well. And then the Oilers, minus 168 game one over the Kings. Give me, give me the Oilers here, but a- again, it's, I don't love the price around minus 180.
43:37
Maybe you could find minus 175 out there a little bit.
43:39
I actually like the over in this game i- if, if I have to pick something, because I, I do think the Oilers can open it up and score on LA, especially if the Kings get into any sort of penalty trouble.
43:49
I, I just, I really don't trust the Kings' goaltending, and that's never a good thing going into a series against the Oilers and the firepower that they have up front.
43:56
So I think they're gonna try to set the tone in this game one with the offense, and I do think the Kings can score on Edmonton as well. Edmonton's no defensive juggernaut or has great goaltending either.
44:05
So I think the Kings can keep up to an extent, so give me the, uh, the over in the Lakers. All right. So over Oilers-Kings, Stars game one, Stars series, the prop earlier, and what was the Preds, uh, series price?
44:15
Did you get that? Nope, don't have it in front of me. Oh, I thought you were leaning. I'll have it for you on the way back. Okay, there you go. Jake, thank you for the bevy of picks. We appreciate it.
44:22
Good, good luck this week, guys. You too. Jake Hahn, everybody, from SiriusXM NHL. Always great checking in with him. Little NFL Draft on the other side. [upbeat music]
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