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Apr 22, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 22, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 22, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:34
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN.
0:12
The sports betting network, vsin.com, Gay Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Already taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midlin, producer number nine. So much more than a producer.
0:23
Live from Barcalada, the barrage here at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Um, [laughs] we just saw something we have to put up.
0:31
This has nothing to do with anything, but part of that same athletic anonymous NBA poll that we were talking about earlier, how Wemba Yama was clearly the, uh, defensive player of the year by that poll, and how, uh, NBA anonymous NBA players thought Rudy Gobert was the most overrated, which sounds more like just being
0:49
about popularity than anything. But there was the gr- they also asked these anonymous NBA players who's the greatest player of all time. Who's the greatest player of all time, right? Simple question.
0:59
It's the old Jordan/LeBron thing, right? Th- this, this was circulating. I caught this, uh, circulating around our old, uh, our old NBA chat that I know you share with the same group with the tennis, uh, chats, right?
1:09
[laughs] Is it the same people? I think, I think a lot of them are. [laughs] Uh, so Jordan, 45.9%. The great Michael Jordan, MJ. Ah, no surprise, right? LeBron James, number two, 42.1%. Kobe, 9.8%. Oh, okay.
1:21
Eh, you know, some people think he is, some people think he isn't. Steph Curry, four, Magic Johnson, five. Okay, whatever. Maybe they go- Eh... they got a vote. You know, eh. Right, right. 133 votes, okay.
1:30
I'll give you 1,000 guesses who number six is. [laughs] That's too funny, man. [laughs] Paul Pierce, ladies and gentlemen. Paul Pierce was 0.8% of the vote. [laughs] I'm gonna guess Paul Pierce has a vote in this.
1:41
[laughs] He's gotta be one of the anonymous. Oh, my God. I mean, it is- Paul Pierce... it was supposed to be all current players though, right? Like, I think w- wasn't that what you caught- Oh, yeah... on the Webby one?
1:51
Well, maybe you're right. I think all these are all current players. So maybe it's Paul Pierce talking to somebody. "Vote for me."
1:56
I, I don't know what's funnier, the idea of Paul Pierce voting for himself, or someone in the NBA currently, possibly, even just possibly thinking that Paul Pierce des- belongs in the same conversation.
2:09
Oh, clearly influenced by Paul Pierce, no question. Really? Sixth greatest of all time? I, I, I feel like we could... I actually feel like we could whittle this down somehow.
2:16
Like, okay, who would be in love with Paul Pierce? Clearly someone who hates LeBron and Steph Curry, right?
2:23
Like, has to hate both of them to, to, to consider Paul Pierce somehow above them, who they've played against, right? They've played- There's no way you can explain yourself into Paul Pierce. There's no way.
2:35
I, I don't think so either. I'm trying to f- I, I wanna know who this is so bad now. But with the...
2:40
And the reason that it's comical is 'cause we know ab- of Paul Pierce that he highly overrates his position in the annals of NBA history. Yes. He, he was a very, very good player.
2:50
He's a v- he was one of the- Very good player... all time very goods. One of the all time very goods. Yep. Absolutely. Well said. Yep. I wanna know who voted for him so bad. Also, like, is it, like- [laughs]...
3:00
it's also hilarious if it's just a joke, right? Like, if you're like- Right... like, if, if someone in the locker room- Paul Pierce... that's like, "Yo, bro, I just got this poll from The Athletic.
3:07
I'm just gonna write in Paul Pierce and see what happens."
3:09
Oh, that's more likely than anything, that somebody knows that Paul Pierce highly overrates himself in the history of the NBA, and is like, "Let me mess with Paul Pierce and vote for him for all greatest of all time just to throw his ego into s- I, I mean, like, if LeBron sent his name in, that would be, like, the greatest LeBron moment ever.
3:24
[laughs] Paul Pierce. Ugh. Uh, should be noted he's a Boston Celtic champion, but, uh, there you go. Yeah, I know, I know. We're like sitting here laughing. We're laughing [laughs] about an all time good.
3:34
No, but I'm just like, I, I mean, I can go through players in history who won championships, who were key cogs in NBA teams. Like, I'll go back to before y- any, most people's time.
3:43
Bobby Dandridge of the '78 Bullets is a better player for his era than Paul Pierce was in his. I mean, r- roughly how many names fall- Yeah, come on... fall in between- Stop it...
3:52
let's, let's say even a MJ, LeBron, and where Paul Pierce ranks. 60? More? More. Okay. Are you kidding me? Of all time? I, I mean, I would, I guess I would think, I would think way more too. We- I would think way more...
4:04
not, not noted, uh, uh, on that l- brief list we just discussed. Wilt, Bill Russell. No, yeah, no, yeah. No Wilt- Ivy... no Kareem, no Larry Bird, none of those guys. Paul Pierce. [laughs] Anyway, um, we get tweets.
4:16
Where does he rank in the all time greatest Celtics? [laughs] That's right. Well, we get tweets that beat the book. Jesse Welch, "It's truly sad to see these awards voters' unwritten rules.
4:27
Can't be a second year player for most improved, can't be a pitcher for MLB Rookie of the Year, can't come b- back from dying on the field [laughs] for Comeback Player of the Year in football."
4:35
[laughs] Nevad Azer, oh, it's a great question. "Hey Gil, not sure if you've covered this, but are we to assume that starting tonight that TNT will start announcing the awards winners?" Great question.
4:49
Next couple days, I'm assuming. It starts tomorrow night. Okay. The awards winners will begin on TNT, not tonight, but tomorrow night. Tuesday, April 23rd. Now if your follow-up question to me is, "Oh, that's great, Gil.
5:03
What's the order of the awards?" [laughs] I cannot tell you that, because they just don't tell you. At least they haven't yet. I don't, I don't know that they've been consistent with it over the years too. Yeah.
5:12
I mean, it's always, look, it's always the lower level ones, and they build up to MVP. So you're gonna get Sixth Man, Most Improved. Ooh, but y- You're g- you're gonna find those out earlier than you're gonna get MVP.
5:22
You know what they're doing, though? They are allowing everybody to see every voter's complete ballot, though. Oh, that's good. How about that? But- I heard, uh, I heard, uh, Greg Anthony- Critics...
5:32
last night, uh, g- say SGA was his MVP. Yeah. So, you know, I don't, just gives me a little, a little brief fleeting piece of hope. By the way, do you have the Jimmy Jackson/Greg Anthony problem?
5:42
Like, when they're doing color, I can never remember. Like, I can, I can't distur- discern between their two voices. Greg Anthony I feel like pops up everywhere.
5:52
Like, like he was more, that was last night where I'm like, "Greg An- Greg Anthony, uh, you're doing games here? What? Like-" I had, I had the same thought.
5:58
Because when Jimmy Jackson was doing it, I was like, "Oh, is that Greg Anthony?" And uh, and they're like, "Greg Anthony, haha." And there was Greg Anthony last night. So I don't know.
6:04
I know for me, for whatever reason, his, his voice [laughs] like, you know, a certain... I feel like it's very, it's very individual by individual, but some voices just, like, they, uh, they, they stand out to you.
6:14
For whatever reason, his voice stands out to me. Okay. Um- Not that it's very like a voice that I would say stands out, you know? NFL draft Thursday, little more than 72 hours away now. Um,
6:27
again, I'm doing the podcast with Luke and Drew after the show today. We're gonna-- Let's just look at some of the prices again. And I just wanna say this, Kelly.
6:36
I think the -- After my first flurry of bets, I think what I'm most happy with myself about is that I've let the draft come to me in terms of bets.
6:46
So I thought I was done with betting, and then I thought the four-and-a-half quarterbacks over got too high, so I bet the under. Mm-hmm. 'Cause I actually have a lean to the under.
6:55
I wasn't going to bet it, but when it got so high, I'm like, "I kinda think, uh, enough about the under four-and-a-half. I'm gonna bet it at this price now." I got it at plus 160, not nearly as high as some others.
7:06
And then the other one is I had no intention, none, of betting who's gonna be the second pick in the draft.
7:11
And then if you listened to the show on Friday, I did a whole first segment on why I thought the move against Jayden Daniels going two was just bunk, and I gave my reasons as to why I thought Adam Peters is absolutely gonna draft Jayden Daniels number two.
7:26
And so I got into that market. I was like, "Fine, you moved it this much." Right now, Jayden Daniels is minus 155. I got him at minus 125 Friday morning, and that wasn't even the lowest of the low. Yeah.
7:37
It got to minus 110 or minus 115. Yeah, I added, uh... I mean, we talked about it on the show on Friday.
7:42
I wanted to see what, you know, where the resistance hit, and it, it did hit on Friday by the time we were here, uh, uh, sitting here.
7:48
But I, I bet at minus 140, and then I bet at minus 145 again yesterday, because this price does seem to start ri- I think at Ce- I think it's Caesars in town or something, minus 180 it's back up to.
7:58
So it is kinda running back Jayden Daniels' way. So yeah, that was one. You know, we've talked about it for weeks. I, I always liked him number two.
8:06
The, the price was just a little, it, it was a little prohibitive for me getting, i- involved. Now I feel like, okay, we got a little bit more news out there.
8:13
I don't really think there's anything they, that makes me think that they are ver- very much c- you know, crossed him off their list or looking elsewhere. So I'm in with you. Let's go, number two overall.
8:23
Jayden Daniels right now minus 155 is for the number two pick in the draft. And again, part of the crux for me on Friday was Adam Peters, Adam Peters is a human being. I know it's his first gig as the GM with Washington.
8:34
I know it's a new owner, and I know supposedly as he has carte blanche. But in the end, Adam Peters is a human being, and one of the things as a human being that you're motivated by is fear of failure.
8:44
If you draft Jayden Daniels and it fails, it is not quite the same repercussion coming as it would be if you draft Drake May and it fails. That is as big of a motivator as anything else.
8:55
Of all the other football stuff that you love about Jayden Daniels, the multi-dimension aspect of his game, uh, the fact that he played at a bigger program and against greater competition, um, all those things, but there's the human element as well.
9:10
And again, uh, I know he wasn't with the franchise, but Adam Peters has to know this franchise just drafted a UNC quarterback a couple years ago, didn't work out in Sam Howell.
9:21
And when they did pick number two a quarterback so many years ago, uh, 2012, exactly 12 years ago, it was RG3, and that worked out great until RG3 got hurt. Number three, Drake May is your favorite, minus 145.
9:33
Jayden Daniels plus 155. J.J. McCarthy plus 320. I'm not sure New England's drafting a quarterback, man. I don't know. They could trade out. I'm just not convinced here.
9:44
Well, I, I mean, if they dra- if they draft at the third pick, they're drafting a quarterback. Yeah, I think. Okay. All right. I think so, but I don't know that they're... Let's put it this way.
9:55
I haven't made a bet here because I'm not sure. I mean, my opinion has not changed. It, like, since we've been talking about it past week, three, four, and five, up in the air right now. Up in the air. Up in the air.
10:02
I think any, any of these spots bu- uh, are gonna be trade, trade destinations, if you will. Number four is Arizona. Um, obviously Marvin Harrison Jr. is the favorite.
10:10
If they stay there, minus 225 on Marvin, Marvin Harrison Jr. J.J. McCarthy at plus 180. Again, will there be a trade? Will they stand pat? If they stand pat, what did C.J.
10:21
Stroud say about his old teammate, Marvin Harrison Jr.? "If he's, if they're staring you in the face," with Marvin Harrison Jr., he said, "Don't be dumb." Yeah. Draft.
10:28
I, man, I really, I, I am rooting for a Patriots trade, because that was the first bet I made. I made it pretty sizable, Marvin Harrison to, to the Cardinals, not fourth overall. Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Cardinals.
10:38
So man, [laughs] I'm hoping the Pats trade and the, uh, they get their wide receiver, just falls right to them. Five. Yeah, five is, uh- Chargers. Malik Nabers plus 230. Marvin Harrison Jr., if he falls, plus 250.
10:50
J.J.'s plus 250. Joe Alt is still where I bet him. It's pretty interesting. Plus 475. I bet Joe Alt to go five. And I think if the Chargers stay pat, that's who they'll pick. Yeah, me and you, uh, a little oppo here.
11:03
I've got Nabers, you've got Alt. Yeah. But, uh, I think we both agree it's trade offensive line or wide receiver. It's one of those three. Alt and Odunze five and six are my, uh, again, longer shot bets.
11:13
Sixth pick in the draft, Malik Nabers is plus 150. This is the Giants pick. Roma Odunze's plus 250. That's lower than where I got it. I got plus 325. J.J. McCarthy five to one. Joe Alt plus 850. Seven,
11:27
Joe Alt, this is the Titans pick. He's always been the favorite at minus 165. The eighth pick, which is the Falcons. Oh, we gotta talk more about the Falcons. [sighs] No longer Dallas Turner your favorite.
11:38
Olatu is the short shot at plus 185. Dallas Turner's plus 220 now. Oh, boy. That is a bit of movement right there. More on the podcast on Beating the Bookside on that, and Kelly and I will talk about this as well.
11:50
We'll come back with Mike Somich and more. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. And then Will Hill says to me, "You know, Gil, I'm gonna name my podcast Perhaps I Should Have Wagered an Additional Amount."
12:07
And I said, "No, just call it Shoulda Bet More." [laughs] That's how it can be, Shoulda Bet More. Our new website's looking great, vsin.com Included at the, uh, website, the new vsin.com, Adam Burke.
12:19
How about this article? Should you bet against the Chicago White Sox in every single game? [laughs] He gets into that. Matt Uman's got a mock draft 1.0, that's front and center on the new website.
12:29
Uh, NHL playoff betting concepts from Steve Makinen. Dave Tooley checks in with his takes on the first round of the NBA playoffs. All of that at vsin.com.
12:38
Latest podcasts, links to VSiN's top reads, latest odds and trends, betting strategaries, expert picks and analysis, vsin.com. Uh, it's Gil Alexander, uh, Kelly Betland as well.
12:49
Uh, you know what we have not gotten into yet today is, uh... 'Cause I asked J. Khan about adjusted series prices in the NHL.
12:55
What about adjusted series prices now that each of the NBA series, each of the eight has gone one game, and all the home teams have a one to nothing lead in the respective best of seven series.
13:05
What about adjusted series prices in the NBA, Kelly, where in the case of the Celtics and Heat, let's just start with the, uh- [laughs]... the most ridiculous. Again, no Jimmy Butler. The Heat are
13:18
65 to one-ish on the adjusted series price down a game. 65 to 1 I'm staring at. Shop around for all these, by the way. Yeah, [laughs] shop around, 'cause I'm seeing 35 to 1. Okay. I'm seeing 65 to 1. So jump in on 65.
13:30
[laughs] Um, I'm assuming that doesn't tempt you. Let's do- No, it does not. Let's do these in reverse order, okay? So that's the, that's the longest shot of the teams that are down one-nothing.
13:41
The New Orleans Pelicans without Zion, plus 664, and they almost won last night. Yeah. It's, um... That one feels aggressive to me. Yeah, I was gonna say.
13:53
But, uh, I, I st- I, I still think- They should have won that game last night at the end... they, they very easily could have. I, I don't, I don't think anybody deserved to win that game last night.
14:02
That's the way I'll put it, with how ugly both those teams were down the stretch. Um, felt like I was watching first round of March Madness or something like that. It was awful. It was awful.
14:10
Um, I still think the Thunder just talent edge and home court's gonna end up battering and it will end up, uh, uh, leading to them winning that series.
14:20
But man, if you told me you were gonna take a game and a half or something like that wi- with the Pelicans right now, I, I could be for it. Plus 664 on the Pels to win that series. Yeah.
14:30
'Cause I, let me just, before we move on, if the Pelicans win that game last night, and again, in case you missed the ending, the Pelicans had a million chances to win that game. They're up 90 to 88.
14:42
They had a few chances to go up two scores. They couldn't get it done. Then at 90 to 90, they had a possession where they got four offensive rebounds and could not put the biscuit in the basket,
14:54
and left the door open, Holmgren with a block, SGA with a three-point play, and the rest is history.
15:00
But if the Pelicans win that game last night, which was very possible, we come in here this morning, what would be the narrative around all sports? The narrative would be, "Well, they're so young.
15:11
They've never been in the playoffs before, and you know how it is in the NBA when you're that young."
15:16
Every halftime show for ESPN, by the way, every halftime show, no matter what team is up and no matter what team is trailing, it's the same variation, right, of, "Oh, this team stepped it up," and, "This team, the stage was too big," or, "They're too young and they're not used to it."
15:32
[laughs] Like, it's the same formulaic thing. And if it, in this case though, in this case, had the Pelicans gone up one to nothing,
15:41
based on how we saw the Thunder play in crunch time yesterday, there might have been some meat to that. Yeah. Yeah.
15:47
And so I just, I wanna, I want, if we can put your head in that space for a second, let's say it was one to nothing the other way, but it's not, right? That would be the narrative. So plus 664 doesn't,
16:01
over six- 6.6 to 1 here on average doesn't interest you at all on the Pelicans. But you have a pre... Maybe I'm asking the wrong person, 'cause you have a preconceived thought about the Thunder.
16:10
I just said I didn't think it was a bad bet. Is that what you said? Yeah, yeah. [laughs] That's what I just said. Oh, I thought you said plus one and a half ga- plus one and a half games.
16:17
I thought you said- No, I go plus two and a half games at plus 145 is what I'm looking at at DraftKings right now, yes. I, no, I don't think the Pel- I don't think the Pelicans are gonna beat them, yeah.
16:25
That's what I thought you said, yeah. I don't think they're gonna beat them. I, I think that pricing is aggressive. That's what I said though. I think over six to one on the Pelicans.
16:31
Okay, you did say that, but you, you still don't want the bet though? No. Okay. I mean, seven over, seven over at DraftKings. All right. So you didn't want the bet. Okay. Yeah, we're talking money line. I, i- Okay...
16:38
if you were gonna... Plus two and a half games at plus 145, I don't think that's a bad bet. I'm not running to make it. I already have, I have Thunder bets from before the series.
16:46
So I, I, I'm gonna go, I'll, I'll, um, I'll just be riding with those. I have Thunder in five and Thunder in six. So when you said I misunderstood you, I understood you perfectly is what you're saying.
16:55
So the Lakers are five to one, down one to nothing. Yeah. Do you want any part of that? No. No. No, I would be quicker, I would be sooner to bet the Pelicans at that price than the Lakers at that price. Me too.
17:08
What about the Magic at north of three to one against the Cavs? Man, I, I, I, th- I, I would love to, but no. It, it's the- [laughs] That, that series is NBA TV written all over it, isn't it? It, it's so gross.
17:24
A- a- and, and why I want the Magic to win so bad because somehow we're st- somehow the conversation about the Lakers tanking or should have tanking thing is still going on, yet, yet there's a team out there in the NBA playoffs that literally tanked to be able to win a one r- one round in the NBA playoffs- The Cleveland Cavaliers...
17:45
and that's the Cleveland Cavaliers. For those who- I want them punished- Yes... as badly as they could possibly be punished. Oh, you do. No, I, I mean, like, I don't think they're actually gonna be punished. Oh.
17:53
But, like, I would love to see the M- the Magic beat them. Just, just to be clear, what you're referring to is the last game of the season, right? Yes. Yeah. So remember, we went into that.
18:00
We actually had this horrible segment where we [laughs] went on the show. We were trying to figure out what team might tank and all this.
18:07
And even going into the weekend when we weren't on the air, I was trying to figure, I was like, "Well, this team does that and this team." I was like, "No, that doesn't make sense."
18:12
And the one team I never had on my radar was Cleveland, who then- In crunch time- Pole guys... against the Hornets, I believe it was Yeah, it's the Hornets. The Hornets. They're like 15-point favorites. Yeah.
18:23
They, th- this is a horrible lineup, and so they were like, "Let's be four. We'll play the Magic. This is awesome." 'Cause once they saw the, the Bucs result, they were like, "Now we can just tank this."
18:30
Th- they were, th- w- they were playing right at the same time. Right, but the Bucs were- With a win- But the Bucs were down, like, a million points, weren't they? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, yeah.
18:36
So they knew that they could throw it If you look at it after, with a win, they would've ended up the two seed. Correct.
18:40
I mean, you, they actively avoided, they actively avoided having to play, you know, any possibility- Yeah... of running, uh, uh, of running into Boston first round 'cause they could've f- they could've fallen.
18:52
Um- We talked about it that day because it was the next day, because it was... They, the only thing they didn't control was what Milwaukee was doing. Once they saw that what Milwaukee was doing, then they controlled it.
19:02
Right. And they're like, "Ah, we'll just tank this." I mean, all they wanna do is, all they wanna do, Gil, is beat the Magic- [laughs]...
19:06
'cause they think that's gonna be enough to say, "Donovan Mitchell, we won a playoff series. Come on back." Well, you know, um, they were so traumatized by how bad they looked last year. It was so bad.
19:17
Losing to the Knicks in five. I know. That maybe it was enough of trauma for them to just be like, "We gotta win one series." I just, I cannot, I, I can't, I, I can't imagine having that mindset.
19:29
And I know Max Strus, like a lot of people wonder about this, like, "Hey, there's gotta be some players unhappy about this." Max Strus wasn't happy about it after that last game.
19:36
All right, those are the four longest shots. Let's go to the, the next four. We're going in, you know, shortened order here. Fourth lowest number, adjusted series price on a team that's down one to nothing, the Sixers,
19:50
plus 250 adjusted series price. Embiid wobbly. Yeah, um- Maxie may be sick tonight, might not play... not one I'm interested in, but I, I, I think the, I think it's, I think that series from a...
20:04
I mean, you know I have futures on the Sixers, so I, I mean, I'm in on game, I was in on game one, I'm in on game two on the Knicks side.
20:11
If that goes back to Philly and you think if Joel Embiid, like, looks better, a little bit better tonight, Gil, and it, that's going back to Philly with them down 2-0, I have a f- like I, there's, there's a chance you could get a really nice price on the Sixers with Joel Embiid may- if he looks like he's doing a little bit better, getting on the right side, so- So wait, wait a game?
20:33
Maybe not now. Yeah, wait a game. We, I'm waiting a game, but that might be a tempting price after game two. All right. Third lowest, the Indiana Pacers plus 190 down a game after they got just
20:45
absolutely s- crushed by the Giannis-less Bucks yesterday.
20:49
I think this is one I, it, I, I think this is one I'm, I'm never gonna have an answer of getting involved in this series 'cause you just don't know with Giannis, right?
20:56
We're hearing maybe after game three, after game four he could be back, but you don't really know. A really impressive win by the Bucks yesterday. The Pacers looked absolutely terrible.
21:06
Um, but that one I'm not gonna be getting involved with. We're showing the Suns at plus 125, but I'm staring here at the Suns plus 150. Again, always shop around for these.
21:14
How about the Suns, who got beat by 25 against the T-Wolves, at plus 150? We'll use the high price that I see. I'm surprised it's moving that way. I will say that.
21:24
The, what, you know, when I typed up this morning at plus 125, that seemed like a more fair price. I think we might be swinging a little too far that way. So if I had to make a bet, that's where I'd lean.
21:34
Still like the over, still like this to go, uh, six, seven games. I think this will be a tight contested series.
21:40
Even though Timberwolves looked great game one, and I did say before that series, I think if there is one team that's gonna run away with it, it would be Minnesota.
21:47
I don't think Phoenix is gonna go down, though, witho- without at least grabbing a couple games. All right. And this last one, I'm not even sure if I'm asking about the dog or the favorite.
21:55
Clippers, without Kawhi- Yeah... go up one to nothing on the Mavericks. That adjusted series price is Clippers minus 133 up one game. We're showing minus 150. I'm showing it even more muted.
22:07
And the Mavs anywhere between plus 110 and plus 125 on the comeback. Ah, the Mavs love is crazy. So, like, I bet that, I bet that before the series at plus 110. It was when it first opened.
22:19
So now you're talking about the Mavericks down a game. You're basically getting the same price. Basically, yeah. Like, so I can't do it. Right. If I was someone out there...
22:27
Actually, no, I don't even think that, the price is a little ridiculous down a game. You're down a game. You don't have home court. What about the Clippers at minus 133? Nah, I still like the Mavericks.
22:36
If I was gonna bet anything- Okay... but I think that price is silly. I, I think if you're catching, I think if you're catching over plus 125, yeah, I would consider it. I'd bet it.
22:45
That Pelicans price is awfully tempting. That's the takeaway for me. Mike Somich on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:01
The VSiN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in all the action.
23:06
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23:13
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23:24
Start making smarter bets today. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling, live from Bar Canada here at The D. Uh, always a pleasure to, uh, welcome this gentleman in each and every Monday to the show.
23:35
He does it from his lair in California. It's Mike Somich, everybody, co-host of The Handle, Somo Bombing, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Mike? What's happening? Ah, doing pretty good.
23:46
We had, like had, just got done with a little wind sprints to get the daughter to school and back from it, but, uh, you know, we're here, we're happy, we're excited to talk some sports.
23:54
Were you wind sprinting with the daughter on the way or just on the way back? Well, I, I thought I had the car this morning. I didn't. So we, she had to bike to school.
24:01
So I was trying to run to keep up with her from the bike. [laughs] And then I had to run back here to make sure I got in here in time for the show. So I'm actually pretty happy with how the hair looks right now.
24:09
I thought it'd be a little more out of place. [laughs] And, and father of the year. Let's put that out. We're talking, we're talking about this bit off the air.
24:15
I didn't realize that's what he did this morning on the way to school. I would love video of that. Mike Somich running down the street. [laughs]Is there, is there- It's a picture...
24:24
while this is happening, is there communication between you and your daughter? Like, are you egging her on to go faster? Uh, she can hustle on that bike. Okay.
24:33
So I didn't need to like, I, I needed to save the breath so I could make sure I could keep up with her there on the way to school, and there's like multiple streets you have to cross, so I have to make sure I'm, I'm at the street at the same time she is.
24:42
[laughs] So you've gotta like change your pace as you're going here. So you're like, you're just trying to keep up for a little bit, then you gotta sprint in front. So it's, uh- Mike's wife- It's a thing, man...
24:49
Mike's wife is listening to this. She goes, "He better be at the street when she's crossing." [laughs] Yeah. [laughs] And there's- Right? [laughs]... hey, Bob neighbor watching. That's right.
24:56
[laughs] All right, let's start with the NHL. Uh, six series have begun, two still to come tonight, and a couple game twos tonight as well. Uh, let's start in the east.
25:06
Why don't we, uh, talk Bruins, who are up one-nothing in their series. You like 'em again tonight? I do like 'em again tonight. This is a series I talked about over the weekend.
25:14
I think the home team is gonna have an advantage all series long, and it's gonna be priced at a playable number for the most part.
25:19
The Bruins were minus 130 in game one, came out, took care of business, won that game four to one. Nylander is supposed to be back for Toronto tonight, so they do get a weapon back on the offensive side.
25:28
But I still think the Bruins at home should be sitting here more, more like minus 150, minus 160. So still think there's a little bit of value here taking them at minus 135, minus 140.
25:38
If you wanna get, get a little frisky here, I don't hate the minus one and a half plus 180. Uh, one thing that you see in the playoffs is earlier goaltender pulls. Yes. So you do have more empty netters.
25:46
We saw that in the, the, the Tampa and Florida game last night, where they, Tampa pulled their goalie with three and a half minutes left. We got the empty netter from Florida.
25:54
Unfortunately, Tampa scored with eight seconds left to, to knock out that minus one and a half. But, uh, you do have some more value on the m- minus one and a halves here because of those early goalie pulls.
26:03
Can I, uh, brief aside, can I ask you about that for a second? When I was a kid, and when I say kid, I mean five years ago, they didn't pull their goalies till, you know, a minute plus, right? Two minutes at the most.
26:15
And then like three, four years ago, correct me if I'm wrong here, Mike, it was like everybody got on an email chain, and they all decided like, "Here's what we're gonna do from now on.
26:23
We're just gonna pull the goalie with like four minutes left." What, what was behind that? Did everybody just decide to do it at the same time? Did one team do it and everybody followed?
26:31
Well, you know, we talk about analytics a lot in football. Analytics hadn't creeped too much into hockey, but one of the big things that it's changed is when you pull the goalie.
26:39
The idea is, look, if, if they score an empty netter, you have, still have the opportunity to score back twice if you pull your goalie early enough.
26:45
You also want as much time as possible when you have, when you, when you're down a goal, especially in games like the playoffs where you have to win it.
26:51
So what we've seen is because of analytics, we've seen earlier and earlier goaltender pulls. It was started by one or two teams.
26:57
They started pulling their goalie with two minutes left in regulation during the regular season.
27:01
But we've seen some pulls up to five or six minutes in some of these playoff games, because they wanna have that opportunity, especially a team like Tampa, who has the best power play in the NHL.
27:09
Essentially, you're giving yourself a power play where the team can't ice the puck without some repercussions.
27:14
And so for them, the idea of pulling their goalie early i- is a big plus, because they're able to get those elite talent on offense on the ice with the man advantage for more time.
27:23
Once again, Kelly, March of the Penguins. "And then one day, nobody knows why, one penguin took one step to the left and everybody followed."
27:31
Of all, one of my sports dreams has always been to, uh, score an empty net goal. You know, just like- Oh, your sports dreams?... with nobody in front of you, right? Like, could I make it- [laughs]...
27:38
under the greatest pressure, right? Or no pressure, 'cause like, I, I mean, I guess you already got a lead.
27:43
The other, uh, the other Eastern Conference, uh, series that resumes today is the, uh, the Hurricanes and the Islanders. Hurricanes have a one to nothing lead in that series, but they're a prohibitive favorite tonight.
27:52
They're minus 242, so how are you betting this? Yeah, don't really wanna lay the minus 242. The Hurricanes, one of the best teams, especially early in games on home ice.
28:01
I think this is gonna be a pretty low-scoring series. We saw two to one in that first game. Gonna be more of a defensive battle here, but I'm gonna look toward the first period with the Hurricanes.
28:08
Lay the half goal in the first period, and you're able to get plus 135 in this spot if you lay that half goal in the first period. This is a Canes team, again, very good at home, very good in the first period.
28:18
Let's try and play that edge and, and take that juice from minus 260 all the way to plus 135, see if we can get a little plus money winner home. Did you make the empty netter in your dream, Kelly? Every time, man.
28:27
Oh, okay. Just- Crowd goes nuts... felt like I didn't follow up on that. I apologize. [laughs] Can you skate, Kelly? Yeah, do you skate? All right. You know what? I played hockey in Russia, okay? He was just asking you.
28:37
Don't get mad at him. But I haven't, but I haven't gotten on skates in like 15 years. [laughs] So that's a great question, Mike. Very defensive about his skating, my God.
28:44
We've gotta get the, the Wesen beer league team together. [laughs] I played in high school. We, we'd be a dynamic one-two combo there, Kelly. I like it. I like it. Let's do it.
28:50
Western Conference series that have not started begin tonight, uh, beginning with the Stars and the Golden Knights. And I see what your pick is here. You too, man. You and J-Kon both not loving the Knights tonight.
29:03
This was a, like these two series that haven't started yet, the last day of the NHL season wildly affected them. We saw the Golden Knights lose, the Kings win, and it's a brutal draw for the Golden Knights.
29:12
Now they get the best team in the West, the Stars, who've been dominant again at home. It's a Golden Knights team that made some acquisitions at the deadline, were able to re-sign those players for long term.
29:20
So I think long term it's a great, uh, great deal. They still haven't really come together and gelled in the way that I was hoping this team would be able to.
29:27
Uh, coming in here and trying to take on the Stars I think is a very tough spot for them. Because this is the first game in the series as well, you generally see home teams come out and dominate the first 10, 15 minutes.
29:36
I think the Stars able to get a goal in that and then start to coast from there. So we're gonna lay the puck and a half here, take the big plus 190 number with the Stars tonight. Stars on the puck line for Samich.
29:46
Uh, and then you had just alluded to the Kings. The Oilers are minus 168, uh, game one favorites against the LA Kings. You have a play here. Yeah, we're gonna look at the same thing we did with Carolina.
29:58
Again, this is game one of the series, so like the Dallas Stars, you should see the Oilers come out with their hair on fire.
30:04
McDavid planning to play on this game as expected, so we get the best player in the world back here for the Oilers as well. And this is a great matchup for the Oilers.
30:11
They went three and one in the regular season, scored multiple, scored four goals multiple times in that, in those games.
30:16
I think their offense is gonna have some success, and this is not exactly the most robust Kings offense in the world either.
30:21
The teams that can take advantage of the Oilers are teams that can score in bunches, and that's just not this Kings team. So I think it's a great matchup here for the Oilers. I laid the game and a half in the series.
30:29
We're gonna look to the first period here. I do think the Oilers get out to a hot start. And we can take that minus 170 right now on the game line, get plus 165 laying the half goal in the first period.
30:38
So let's take the Oilers to win the first period plus 165. Okay. Wow. Okay, so let's, let me, uh, let me review all those real quick. So, uh, Bruins minus 140 tonight.
30:48
Canes, uh- Uh, minus a half a goal first period, plus 135. Then the Stars on the puck line, plus 190 for the game tonight, minus a goal and a half.
30:58
And then the Oilers, uh, much like the Canes, giving up the half goal in the first period at plus 160. D- uh, any-- I asked this question of, uh, Jay Cohn earlier, uh, Mike.
31:07
Any of the teams that have fallen behind one to nothing already in the six series that have started, any of those prices on the adjusted series price look good to you? Or bettable?
31:19
Uh, I mean, the one team, and this is, I, I'm not going to play it because I've already got enough exposure to the Predators. But if you watched that game last night, very low-scoring game, very, very tight game.
31:28
Their, the shots were sub 30 the middle of the way through the third period. I, I think that's gonna be a seven-game series. I think that's going the distance.
31:36
If you wanna take some Predators action right now, you get a much better price than the plus 130 it started with. And I don't mind playing some of these road teams that lost game one.
31:43
Look, the whole idea is to split in the first two games. If you're able to get one of the two, all of a sudden you've got home ice advantage or home court advantage if it's the NBA.
31:51
And so if I'm gonna take any series price here, it would be the Predators, taking the, the, the additional plus money now. Somich and Jay Cohn matching on that, too. It's like Garanimals of hockey betting.
32:00
[laughs] I might have to make a Predators bet. Yeah, sounding interesting. Hockey bet. Little hockey bet from Kelly Bidlin. Um- That would be number two of the year...
32:06
we're, we're gonna save all the NBA stuff for the other side. Did you bet any NFL draft stuff, Mike? I've got quite a bit of NFL draft stuff. I, uh, the, the one that I like the most right now, Brock Bowers.
32:16
You can get him to go 10th overall, plus 150. The market's just not correct to me. If you look at the Jets' first overall pick, they've got the, the tight end there at plus 140.
32:24
With the way that this falls, I just don't see how it ends up be- not being, uh, the not being Bowers there in the 10th pick. I don't think they're gonna have the choice of the offensive lineman they want.
32:32
You could see Ault go a little bit earlier, which could push two out before you see them. I don't expect a Dunsey to be there. I don't think you'll see Dallas Turner there.
32:39
And I think they're gonna wanna get another weapon out there for Aaron Rodgers, so like the plus 140 number there. I also like the Denver Broncos to take a cornerback at 13.
32:47
They've got so many weaknesses across that whole team, and I think TreVeyon Arnold is gonna be sitting there, and he makes a ton of sense for them.
32:52
Right now, Denver to take a cornerback first is plus 350, so like that one quite a bit as well. Yeah, Denver with the 12th pick in the draft. Just wanted clarification on that. 12th pick is the one I'm talking about.
33:00
Oh, that was one, uh, Luke pointed out last week as well.
33:03
He just thought that Denver po- Denver positional market that Mike's talking about was just a little mispriced with how favor- how favored the quarterback was for them. So yeah.
33:12
But- That's, uh, that was one he liked as well... as we go out here, I'm just gonna ask you to speculate. Where do you think the first surprise comes? Three. I, I wouldn't be shocked if it's Marvin Harrison Jr. Wow.
33:22
[laughs] Oh, Kelly. No. Just made Kelly- No... very angry. [laughs] He's leaving. He's very angry, Kelly. Okay, we'll come back.
33:30
Uh, Mike's NBA picks for tonight, and we'll revisit our, uh, Celtics hypothetical bet about their total number of losses in the Eastern Conference playoffs, which obviously is injury-riddled now since we made it.
33:42
Coming back, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
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34:00
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34:08
New customers bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code V-S-I-N, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin live at, uh, Bar Canada at The D.
34:21
Getting all kinds of texts about what we just said. Uh, Michael Montesano texted. Michael, "Marvin Harrison Jr. 25 to 1 to go number three." He says, "I took it.
34:31
I have him going number four as well, but just in case, I took it." I just wanna be clear- You know what, Michael? I might be joining you on that.
34:37
Yeah, I might be joining you on that We were gonna talk NBA, and we will with Mike Somich, but I wanna hearken back to what you just said at the end, 'cause I asked you just randomly on the way out, I'm like, "Where's the surprise?"
34:44
And you're like, "Three, Patriots are taking Marvin Harrison." Whoa, wait a minute. Okay. [laughs] So off air, we were talking about this.
34:50
'Cause, 'cause I am with you in the sense that I think, I, I think I know what's happening at one and two, but I really don't know what's happening at number three. What we were talking about off air was if that happens,
35:00
describe the effects of that then moving forward in that draft. Who gets affected the most? Well, I mean, the, the other quarterbacks. I mean, Drake Maye to me obviously gets affected because he's gonna drop down.
35:13
But I think the Arizona Cardinals then, uh, have a scramble on their hands because they've gotta move out of that four pick. They don't wanna take Malik Nabers at four.
35:19
They wanna get as much capital as they can for whoever wants to come up and get Drake Maye. So I think you kind of see a scramble on there. Uh, the question, is it gonna be someone like the Raiders who wanna jump up?
35:28
The Broncos have mentioned that they wanna move up for a quarterback, but they don't really have the capital. The Vikings are sitting there at 11 and 23, and they're just licking their chops.
35:35
Because if, if Drake Maye ends up going four and someone trades up for him, the cost for them to go get J.J. McCarthy at let's say, you know, s- eight from the Falcons is significantly less.
35:45
You've got the, the Giants who are sitting there. They now have a decision because McCarthy most likely gonna be gone on six.
35:49
So to me, it, it really shifts the, the balance of what happens here, and it, it, it affects J.J. McCarthy a lot. I think he ends up going maybe outside the top 10. Yeah. You could see him at, at, like, 11.
35:59
To, to the, to the Vikings, if they decide to just call everybody's bluff and say, "Hey, we're gonna keep this draft capital. We think we're gonna get our guy." Yep.
36:05
"And if not, we're fine with Penix in the second round," right? I think that what you just hit on there at the end, I think that's the biggest effect.
36:11
Like, someone like McCarthy could fall outside of the top 10, and it becomes just a different draft than we imagine, which I think then brings up the point which we don't say enough, if ever, which is remember not only is this an information-based thing, but the draft is set for Thursday night.
36:28
The first round is Thursday night.
36:30
Had the draft been set for any other night, either a week in advance, a week, a week later, five days in advance, five days later, whatever, that it is a moving target of where these teams' brains are at that moment, right?
36:46
And that we're actually betting that. We're betting Where everyone's brains will be on that particular night and not two days before or two days after, or five days before, five days after.
36:58
And that just, if you think of it in that way, it does become kind of amusing 'cause you're like, "Oh, wow. Uh, if I'm right, I'm right 'cause I timed it right.
37:07
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong 'cause I just blew it on the timing."
37:10
Well, that was also, I feel like that's also been a b- a big reason of a lot of us thinking that teams are gonna trade back into the end of that first round for a quarterback, like, over the years. Yes.
37:19
Not one specific draft, but over the years because they've separated the day, right? Like, that's always when a [laughs] TVT's big thing. We're like, "We make too much of that." Like, ah, it's still under, under, under.
37:29
Yeah.
37:29
I could talk about the Guardians for an hour or I could talk about this draft for an hour, which we will after the show, uh, here in a NB- uh, excuse me, NFL draft podcast, again, with Vegas Refund, Luke Swain, Andrew Dencik.
37:38
All right, Mike, NBA. Um, let's get to your thoughts. Well, before we get to your thoughts, I'm sorry, one more thing.
37:44
We had this thing where I set the hypothetical line on Celtics losses in the Eastern Conference two weeks ago at five and a half. It was right before Giannis went down, then obviously Jimmy Butler went down.
37:56
Embiid keeps reaggravating it. My God, five and a half is way too high now, right? Uh, I, I like my side of this one, Gil. I'm not gonna lie. It, it looks like it's way too high.
38:06
I mean, it feels like Boston's gonna be able to sweep Miami. Miami tried to use some, some zone magic to be able to slow them down, and Boston just rained threes down over their head.
38:13
They're not gonna be able to do that in this series. I, I'd be shocked if Miami able to get a game from Boston at this point. We saw the sweep price go off at plus 125.
38:21
Boston was 8,000 to one, or, um, um, sorry, minus 8,000 to win the series. So feels like this is gonna be a, a nice little 4-0, which means that we've got six games to give.
38:30
We just have to avoid the 4-3, 4-3 in those last two rounds. And, uh, the winner [laughs] of the Cavs-Magic draws, draws the Celtics in the second round. And while they're not banged up, they're not very good either.
38:40
[laughs] No, they're not. So, uh, happy with that position. [laughs] All right, Cavs-Magic, let's start there. You have a play tonight's first game tonight. I can't quit the Magic. Look, I, I love this defense.
38:49
I don't like this Cavs team. It feels like Donovan Mitchell's halfway out the door. He missed 15 of the last 22 games. He did look pretty good in that first game.
38:57
But if you look at how the Magic were able to play defensively, they gave up 20, 20, and 24 points the second, third, and fourth quarter. We saw Cleveland shoot the basketball very well in the first quarter.
39:06
That was really the difference in this game. The Magic at one point were 2 for 19 from three-point range. They can't shoot worse. [laughs] Uh, so I'll go back to the well here.
39:13
I'll take some plus five and a half for the Magic, and if I was gonna rebet a series here, I would take the Magic again in the series. Oh, okay. Again, this is, we're at 1-0.
39:22
If this goes back 1-1, this is gonna flip all the way to the Magic's being short- uh, short dogs or cl- slight favorites because they take over home court advantage.
39:29
This is gonna be a rock fight of a series all the way through. I, I'm happy to take the Magic here at the plus five and a half, and I'll, I, I'd sprinkle on the series if I didn't have some pre-series.
39:37
Sprinkle on the, uh, adjusted series price on the Magic for Mike Somich. And again, they're- Rooting for Mike Somich... they're north of $3 are the Magic, uh, on the adjusted series price.
39:47
So he likes the Magic better than he likes the Pelicans on the adjusted series price, down one-nothing at 650 to one.
39:53
I mean, Mike, clearly Donovan Mitchell told the Cavs, "All I need to win is one playoff series with you guys, and I'll sign back," right? [laughs] That's the only way any of this makes any sense.
40:02
Clearly, that conversation already happened. I mean, he's out, right? Like, there's no way he's coming back to Cleveland with the way this has gone the last couple years.
40:09
I'd be shocked if he's, if he's gonna be a Cavalier at the end of this season. I, I think Cleveland tanked because they wanted to try and get that one playoff series.
40:15
I know you guys were talking about that a couple se- segments ago. But the problem is, "Congratulations, you win. Here's the Boston Celtics, who are gonna either sweep you or beat you 4-1. How's that gonna feel-" Yep...
40:24
"walking out the door?" Bozzeltov. Uh, you're staying away from the, uh, game two between the Sixers and the Knicks tonight? I am. I, I laid it with the Knicks in the first game.
40:32
I, this is, uh, uh, number adjusted quite a bit, so that was minus three in the first game. Now we're seeing minus six here. I, I still have so many questions about Embiid, what you're gonna get from him.
40:40
He still looks like a shell of himself. I, I thought he was done when he did that little alley-oop play.
40:45
It was all the emotions in one play because you thought, "Hey, this is what makes the Sixers great and what the problem is." Uh, but I, I can't get up to six here. I think this number is right with the adjusted total.
40:54
So I, I laid it in game one. I'm not, I'm not gonna touch game two here.
40:57
I may take some, some Knicks when we go back home, depending on what the price is gonna be because you are gonna see this line shorten up significantly when they're in Philadelphia.
41:04
Nuggets are touchdown favorites in game two tonight against the Lakers. You are betting this a couple ways. I am. Uh, favorite bet on the board right now, under five and a half games in this series, minus 110.
41:15
If you watch that Lakers-Nuggets game, tell me what have could, what could have gone better for the Lakers. I agree. That was pretty much the A effort. Yes. That was everything you'd want.
41:23
LeBron was a machine in the first half. Davis goes for what? 34 and 14, something crazy like that, and they still fall 10 points short [laughs] to the Nuggets. That is, is, this is a problem.
41:34
It, the, the Nuggets are just better, and they're more efficient. Uh, I, I think the Nuggets get done with this series in four or five.
41:38
Love the under five and a half games this series, minus 110, and I'm gonna lay the first half with the Nuggets here. You saw LeBron out of gas. Davis started getting gassed in the late parts of that game.
41:47
They've got to play at altitude again tonight. Nuggets, very good home team first half, so we'll lay the four with the Nuggets in the first half in this game. But love the series under five and a half games.
41:55
Yeah, AD 32, 14, and five in that game one performance, and I said, I said basically the same thing earlier, Mike, which is, I mean, I, I know a lot of people love the Lakers, but what else did you have to see to know that eventually the Nuggets are gonna beat you?
42:10
Uh, literally their A game.
42:12
That, that was as good as it gets from the Lakers, and they still could not even keep that game close, and that, that to me is a huge issue, and I, I just, I don't see how even with the extended rest you have in between games in the playoffs, it just feels like LeBron's gonna run out of gas every single one of these games.
42:26
I don't fully trust AD's able to put that performance every, up every single time. And on the other side, I trust the Nuggets to play like that. Yes. Pretty much every game. That's right. They're consistent. Yep.
42:34
That's what makes them so great. I agree completely. All right, 90 seconds.
42:38
We gotta run, but let me circle back to the draft 'cause I've asked this of pretty much everybody on the show that, that we've talked draft to, which is what do you think you know for sure?
42:48
What are the things you're most confident in? Uh, for me, the, the, there's three picks I'm confident in. One's gonna be Caleb Williams. I think seven's Joe Alt unless something goes really crazy and you see him go five.
42:57
I think 10 is Brock Bowers. I think all of those make a, a ton of, a ton of sense from that perspective. I also like the under on Brian Thomas Jr. Right now you get 19 and a half out there.
43:06
I think his floor is the 18th pick. Uh, when you look at this wide receiver class, you've got the three big guys, right?
43:11
You've, you've got, uh, Edonsay sitting there at three, and the gap between Edonsay and Brian Thomas Jr., there, there is a gap, but the biggest gap in this wide receiver market to me is between Brian Thomas Jr.
43:20
and whoever you want to put at number five. With how valuable wide receivers are, especially on rookie deals, I think someone goes up and gets Brian Thomas Jr. You've also got the V- the Jags sitting there at 17.
43:31
He's a likely landing spot for them. The 18th pick, likely landing spot for him. You can get under 19 and a half at plus 115. I took under 18 and a half at plus 185.
43:40
I, I think he ends up going in those, those early teen spots. Wow. I hope the Jags are, I hope you're wrong about the Jags, though, in that specific spot. I got them, uh, drafting a cornerback at 17. We'll see.
43:51
Um, we didn't say Som-O-Bomb. Let's see if we can do it. Som-O-Bombing. [laughs] No? Nothing? Nothing didn't happen. No. Nothing. There we go. There it is. Hey. There's a late Som-O-Bomb.
44:00
All right, it's official segment. Thank you, Mike. Uh, that was a lot. Appreciate that. NHL, NBA, and the NFL draft. Thank you as always, man. Of course. It's a great sports time right now. It is.
44:09
Loving the NFL draft in here with the playoffs going on. Yeah. While Scottie Scheffler and Nelly Corta just destroy golf every week. Thank you, sir. Enjoy. Glad your daughter got to work, or to school, I should say.
44:19
Mike Som- It's her work. We'll allow it... Mike Somich, everybody, @SomOBomb18 on Twitter, co-host of The Handle, which he does with Matt Brown each and every Saturday and Sunday at 12 noon Eastern.
44:28
We've done all we can do. GoJoe and Golick are next. Enjoy from Visa and the Sports Betting Network
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