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Apr 24, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 24,2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 24,2025 | Hour 1
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44:50
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158.
0:19
It's a Numbers Game, Gil Alexander alongside Wyatt Tomchek, in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. Gil, happy NFL draft day. It's Christmas part two. Christmas for adults, that's what it is.
0:32
Um, I can't wait because I think I'm set up nicely.
0:36
And by the way, part of this is just sheer luck that the two biggest bets I have, the, the only bets that were allowed to be, uh, made as big bets in a window, ended up being the good ones.
0:48
Um, but I'm looking forward to it. We'll, we'll get into all that momentarily. Uh, s- unscripted with the Crack Man. It's Zach and Crack on Thursdays here on the show, you know that. I'm burying the headline.
0:57
Crack, Bill Krackenberger, unscripted, hour number two, preceded by Zach Cohen, uh, who will handicap tennis for us, some NBA, and maybe some NFL draft. I don't know if he has any of that, NFL draft as well.
1:08
Hopefully he's having a better, uh, tennis morning than I am. Joe Fortenbaugh from ESPN Bet. Let's go. NFL draft preview from Joe. Uh, also, of course, uh, ESPN Radio, he's got his, uh, daily show there.
1:23
And, uh, Michael Montesano momentarily to talk about the NFL draft, what he is, uh, thinking.
1:27
And I just wanna, you know, if, if for those who can still bet this, 'cause we cannot in Nevada, but for those who can still bet this in, in other, uh, jurisdictions, what is the best bet right now?
1:38
What does he have in pocket? Uh, and then is he over the fact that, uh, he didn't get his NBA Defensive Player of the Year award home? Not only did he not get it home with Lou Dort, but he also, [laughs]
1:50
he also didn't have Dort as a-- they, he didn't get, I mean, even in as a finalist. So we'll see if he wants to a rant and rave about that, or if he's over it. Maybe he's over it. I don't know. We'll see.
1:59
Um- Do you like how the N- by the way, do you like how the NBA just does it a little chronologically during the playoffs? Yeah.
2:04
I mean, I pr- prefer that over the Major League Baseball waiting till Thanksgiving to do it, basically. I kinda forget that the awards have been announced. Yeah.
2:11
Um, okay, so I just wanna start here with w- I added one bet yesterday in the NFL draft. And again, finally we are here.
2:18
Tonight they actually pick players, and we can review it tomorrow, and then that'll be the end of that for a little while.
2:23
But, uh, for those of us who have, uh, had a history of betting this, have made a lot of money on, on, on this vehicle, this betting vehicle in the past, not so much the last two years, but really a lot before that, this is still a thing.
2:36
Uh, and I just wanna say this about Nevada here, Wyatt. Yesterday, 'cause know Nevada has a rule where they have to take it off 24 hours before the event. So it's 5:00 PM Pacific, tonight is the draft.
2:47
They were forced to take it off by regul- by regulation 5:00 PM Pacific yesterday.
2:53
Um, Caesars went ahead and decided to have, uh, they're gonna say they didn't decide, but they had maintenance all day yesterday until one hour before the deadline. Yeah.
3:03
That, that email came through and I was laughing, 'cause we were having that conversation afterwards.
3:07
Ce- Caesars is representative of, of almost all of Nevada though, because even the ones that chirp that they've had 'em up for a few days or so, they didn't have anything.
3:16
Now, now part of this is the nature of this draft, right? That it's a little more unpredictable, we think, headed into, to this, uh, 2025 NFL draft than in previous drafts.
3:24
But they're using that to, a- as subterfuge to how, how criminal the way they've b- they've behaved with this. Not criminal, but just they've ran scared on this. I don't know why.
3:35
They've won the last two years, um, or, or they've lost very little, but they are allergic to even a loss leader.
3:42
And so th- those shops that are like, "Hey, look, we had these 20 props up," none of them were bettable, right? And so their handle is dramatically down as a result of that.
3:50
And it's not because the nature of this draft is different. That's like 15% of it or 20% of it. Mostly it's that they're running scared.
3:58
I do wanna shout out MGM, 'cause MGM is the only book that had a breadth of props that were ultimately bettable. Um, meaning like the team, which position would a team pick.
4:11
They got creative like that, top fives, top tens, that kind of thing. So shout out to them. And they, for a window of time, took bets.
4:19
And what I mean is they took bets meaning sizable bets, and that's where I got the Travis Hunter to go two at minus 135. He's a prohibitive favorite to go number two.
4:28
Uh, that's where I got New Orleans to take a defensive lineman/edge position player at seven to one. Thank you Luke Swain, "Vegas Refund," for, uh, talking about that on the show last week.
4:38
Uh, it was even plus 450 earlier this week. It is now the favorite. If that gets home, my work is done. My draft is a winner.
4:45
I did add, because I kept saying yesterday, you know, the way to bet this is, um, a team with a specific position.
4:53
I did add the, the Commodores yesterday, Washington Commanders, position of first player drafted wide receiver at nine to one.
5:00
The only difference was that in the last day yesterday at MGM, let me as- as I heap praise on them, the last day they decided to limit all the bets too, so you could only get a few hundred bucks tops on any of these.
5:12
So even that at the very end was like, "Okay, you've had your window. Let's, uh, let's just sort of stagger into the end."
5:18
But I give them credit 'cause they were the only shop in town that actually took legitimate bets when they did. So the Travis Hunter on top for me, second overall pick. The Saints position, uh, seven to one.
5:29
The, those are the big bets. The other, the smaller ones, uh, Golden first wide receiver selected, I don't expect that to get home at plus 140.
5:36
Even when I made the bet, I mentioned on a Numbers Game, I'd draft Ted McMillan first, but we'll see what the Cowboys do at 12. Uh, total first round running backs under two and a half.
5:45
I don't know if that's getting home or not, minus 186. These are all small bets. Again, Tyler Warren over nine and a half, I expect to win that. Ashton Jeanty over nine and a half, I absolutely expect to lose that.
5:55
And I just mentioned the, uh, the Commanders position of first player drafted wide receiver.
5:59
Just because again, as, as Luke pointed out, as we were talking about here on a Numbers Game, in an uncertain draft, the best sort of way to attack it is to go for teams, um, randomly with these position props, because by the time they get to pick, we have no idea at this point who's going to be available to them, especially as you get later with the, uh, with a team like the Commanders.
6:21
Um- As far as mock drafts are concerned, we talked about Todd McShay's final one yesterday. Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network put out his final mock draft last night.
6:31
Now, Jeremiah, who's about as accurate at these things as anybody with these mocks, um, in the last couple years, he's gotten so big, Wyatt, that he, he, he won't even do individual interviews.
6:42
He does these press conferences with everybody. It's un- [laughs] it's unbelievable. [laughs] And his final mock comes later and later.
6:48
So last night, again, less than 24 hours before the draft starts, I will let you know that he and...
6:54
I- if you're into the whole matching mocks thing, [coughs] pardon me, McShay and Jeremiah matched on quite a few things in their top 12.
7:04
So again, for those of you who can still bet this stuff, take it for what it's worth. But one through six, nine and 12, McShay and Jeremiah all matched on. So Cam Ward, one, to Tennessee, obviously.
7:18
Travis Hunter to the Browns at two. Abdul Carter to the Giants at three. Will Campbell, the offensive tackle from LSU, to the Patriots at four.
7:26
They both now have Ashton Jeanty in their final mocks going to the Jaguars at five. Kelvin Banks, the offensive tackle from Texas, they both have then going to the Raiders at six. They matched on all six of those.
7:42
They also matched on Mykel Williams, the edge rusher from Georgia, going to the Saints at nine. And please, from your lips to God, please let that happen, 'cause that's a big one for me, as we mentioned.
7:52
And then they both have Tedarella McMillan going to the Cowboys at 12, standout wideout from Arizona. Where they differ is seven, eight, 10 and 11.
8:01
Jeremiah ended up going Armon Memeu, offensive tackle from Mizzou, to the Jets at seven.
8:05
Mason Graham to the Panthers, a defensive tackle from Michigan, at eight, where, uh, Todd McShay had a Jaylen Walker, Walter Nolan in those slots.
8:14
And then 10, 11, Jeremiah had a Tyler Warren, the tight end from Penn State, going to the Bears at 10.
8:18
And then a little, a little outlier here, Gray Zabel, offensive lineman from North Dakota State, going to the Niners at 11, where Todd McShay had it Mason Graham 10, Shamar Stewart 11.
8:28
So anyway, point being, the two of them, and they are two mockers of many. Mockers, by the way. I, I was, I was gonna ask- Professional title. They, they both have one through six, nine and 12 the same.
8:38
O- out of all the people that put out mock drafts, Gil, who...
8:41
I- is Daniel Jeremiah the one where you're like, "This is the one that I feel like is-" He's the one- I don't wanna say God, but it's like the one that I- [laughs]... I, I, I trust the most. Yes. Yes.
8:50
He's the one that I trust the most. Okay. He might not be the one that, that, that others trust the most, but he... I think most people would s- would answer, at this point, Jeremiah to that question.
8:58
But listen, after 12, and the only reason why I went to 12 here is because after that he starts to put in trades. And so then it gets a little, it gets a little s- more squirrely. I mean, even more squirrely.
9:09
And by the way, none of this might even... By 5:00 PM tonight, none of this matters, right? It's whatever happens is what happens.
9:15
But I'm just letting you know that if you still have a chance to bet this, um, in other jurisdictions up until draft time, maybe this will, uh, inform some, some wagers today.
9:26
I will say this, a little later on, talking about trades and non-trades with Jeremiah, if you're curious about later in, in the first round.
9:32
He has Denver trading up with Miami at 13 for Colston Loveland, the tight end from Michigan. Um, and then perhaps more interesting when it comes to quarterbacks and running backs. You ready for this?
9:47
Jeremiah has both quarterbacks and running backs-- remember the props for both of them were set at two and a half. He has it both going over, which is a bit of a shocker to me.
9:59
So he has, listen to this now, he has the Giants trading up with Seattle for Jaxson Dart at 18. Oh, wow, Giants with Dart. Giants are, are very much paired with Jaxson Dart.
10:11
So that would make Jaxson Dart the second quarterback to go, if something like that were to happen.
10:16
He has the Giants trading up with Seattle for Dart at 18, and then in what I can only sort of say is a little refreshing to me, he has Shedeur Sanders going to the Steelers at 21.
10:26
And the reason that I say it's a little refreshing, and I sort of alluded to this yesterday a little bit, I think a lot of this, this hateration for Shedeur i- with anonymous sources.
10:36
Whenever it's an anonymous source, I sort of, you sort of like wince a little bit. You're like, "Come on, man. If you're gonna say something mean about a kid, maybe put your name to it."
10:44
I, I feel like a lot of the Shedeur hate is hate for Deion that is trickling down to the kid. I, I, I 100% agree. And it, and it just, it's a little bothersome.
10:54
But anyway, J- Jeremiah has Dart being traded for, and so the Giants trade up to, uh, 18 with Seattle to get Dart. Shedeur goes to Pittsburgh at 21, per Jeremiah's final mock.
11:06
And then for the running backs, he has TreVeyon Henderson going to the Chargers at 22, the, uh, standout back from Ohio State, and Om- and Omarion Hampton going to the Rams at 26.
11:18
So along with Jeanty, that would give you three backs. So w- according to him, three quarterbacks and three backs. It, it's why, I... The, the Ashton Jeanty going to the Jaguars is very surprising.
11:27
I was looking at Matt Miller's mock yesterday. He had the same thing, and also had Shedeur going to the Steelers as well. Also had Shedeur going to the Steelers. Yep.
11:32
And by the way, Shedeur has sort of been tweeting things. That is, someone asked him, like, "What was the best w- quarterback-wide receiver pairing in the NFL?" And he goes, "Whoever's throwing to, uh-" [laughs] "...
11:43
DK Metcalf," I think he said. So I don't know. Maybe, maybe that's tipping his hand. Michael Monasano, all that he has to say about the draft next, right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN.
11:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:09
Right now you can check out VSiN's NFL draft hub, Tim Murray's mock draft, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, and later today you can check out Zack Cohen's NBA best bets and player props, Jonathan Davis' NHL picks, and Steve Makinen's MLB analytics report.
12:23
Right now you can sign up for our summer special for only $59 for full VSiN Pro access until August 1st. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today Skill Alexander, we got tweets at Beating the Book.
12:35
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. This is from, uh, Cspackler. Uh, "I'm a Colorado fan. I watched every game of Shedeur's Colorado tenure. Good quarterback without the best receiver the game has seen in a long time?
12:48
Probably not. Was it Shedeur or was it Hunter? I want him to do well 'cause I love his over-the-top father, but he's not a great quarterback." You may be, uh, I'm not disputing that either.
12:59
You may be very right about that. Donnie Miller, uh, "Lucky you with the MGM draft props. They offered zero draft props in Ohio." Yeah, um, some states don't allow it at all. I am aware of that as well.
13:10
By the way, a little bit of clarification on what I said earlier. Uh, William Hill/Caesars is always a little bit of a, a strange thing. It was William Hill who had the maintenance all day yesterday.
13:21
It was Caesars who simply just didn't have them, but the, but the app was operational. They simply chose not to have them. And apparently, uh, Iga Swiatek is having trouble with Alexandria, uh, Alexandra Ayala on clay.
13:34
Down a break in the first set, and, uh, Shrek McPhee says, "Iga's broken. No way she should be the favorite at Roland Garros at the moment. Her killer instinct is completely gone. Cannot finish any break points.
13:44
Bizarre." You might, hey, man, you might be right. The, the mental thing might be so bad at this point that you might have a point. Uh, Jason McKinney, "Gil, I'm landing in Vegas around noon on Saturday.
13:53
Do you have any good insight on round seven?"
13:56
[laughs] So the, I always have to be, oh, cognizant of this, and I am completely above board on this and transparent that there is a, there is a segment of the audience that cannot stand NFL draft talk. I get it.
14:09
I know there's a portion of the audience. We can't get enough of football. I can't get enough of, uh, football of any kind and betting the draft.
14:15
I promise you, after tomorrow, this will kinda go away, so hope you're aware of that. Michael Montesano's a big draftnick as well.
14:22
Uh, he's a Circa Booby prize winner from, uh, their original Circa Millions back in the day.
14:27
He joins us now courtesy of Progressive, uh, best, uh, Progressive guest line, pardon me, and you can follow him on Twitter @BetsAndReps. Is that what it is? No. BetsAndReps? Yes. That's it. BetsAndReps. BetsAndReps.
14:37
Yep. How you doing, man? You good? Good. How you doing? It's a great day. It's, uh, happy, happy, happy draft day. Um, w- you know, once the NCAA tournament's over, it's like we got two weeks to dive into this stuff.
14:48
Yeah. Let, let me just... So let me- let's go to the NBA awards first, and then we'll, we'll segue back into the draft.
14:54
Um, I know you've hit a lot of these NBA awards, but the one that you more famously talked about here on our air was Defensive Player of the Year. Yeah. You had a lot of Lou Dort bets, against Dort bets.
15:05
Um, you know, he wasn't even a finalist in the end. You, you, you have something sort of philosophical to say about all this. Well, I mean, there's the old quote, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
15:18
And, you know, the last two years, it just, this awards market, I just, I just can't figure out. I've done pretty well on some of the other NBA awards markets. Um, it's just this one,
15:29
I think there's just too much common sense that's involved, and, you know, a lot of the voters, unfortunately, do not have any common sense when it comes to this award. It's a groupthink a- award.
15:39
We, you and I discussed it in length last year about, about Wemby and Gobert, and this one, I think, just really kinda takes the cake, you know, with everything. Um, you know, there's two things that can be true.
15:50
These voters have no clue, and they're, and they're just as idiotic w- w- when, when they're submitting their votes, and I am just as idiotic for betting this awar- [laughs] for betting this award market.
16:01
So, you know, Lou Dort not being a finalist just makes absolutely no f- no sense. [laughs] And the one thing I will say is- Yeah...
16:09
I wanna meet the voters who voted for Gobert last year and voted for Dyson Daniels this year. Those are the guys or gals I wanna get into a room. I would love to just hear what they have to say about that.
16:21
[laughs] That was gonna... I thought that was gonna go a different way. "I would love to scream bloody murder at them." Yeah. No.
16:26
No, I just, I wanna hear their train of thought because you know there are some voters out there that voted for Gobert last year, and then they voted Dyson Daniels this year. It just, it makes absolutely no sense.
16:35
No sense whatsoever, but I, but I will say this, what you said there is, is great, and we've said this many times on the show, which is an... And I go back to the Spencer Strider thing, right?
16:44
Spencer Strider was, was my moment of that, which is like, look, it doesn't matter how much evidence we have to support a case.
16:51
By the way, in Sp- in Spencer Strider's case, he did, he actually had a few blowups, so he didn't deserve it in the end, um, until he had those blowups, though, right?
16:59
He didn't end up being a, a finalist for Cy Young either that year- Right... and he probably didn't deserve to be in the end.
17:04
But the, the overall point that you're making is, and this is good for, for new bettors or new-ish bettors, um, we, w- the object here is to win bets.
17:12
The object here is not to have a crusade to prove that you are right about something.
17:17
Ultimately, you are handicapping voters, and those are human beings who have their own reasons for voting on what they are, and a lot of them are not gonna be as sophisticated as you, Mike, right, with advanced stats.
17:28
And so that's the task. The task is to try to match what their brains are going to have them submit in the end, not, uh, "Look at me. This is my crusade. I am correct about this passion of mine."
17:41
That's, that's the bottom line.
17:43
Absolutely, and as just as upset as I am about this award, I'll go back to the, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year two years ago when I had Flacco and everyone was up in arms about Lamar Hamlin.
17:54
So it just, it's give or take, you know? So. Yep. Okay, to the NFL, uh, what do you know? I... What do you know? What do you think you know for sure? What don't you know at all?
18:02
I, I just went through Jeremiah and McShay matching on one through six now, nine and 12, and, uh, besides that, it seems to be a crapshoot. Do you believe in, in those, in what those two guys are matching on?
18:13
Do you think one through six is solidified? I, I, I don't believe in one through six. I do believe in one through five. Now, I think at five it could get a little interesting. I do...
18:24
I, G- Gent, I, I really believe is going five. The question is, is he gonna go to the Jags? Or there's a lot of rumblings that the Bears wanna move up to take him.
18:32
So if you were listening, if we were all listening to, if, if, if Mason Graham is not going five, I think McShay p- was pretty clear about that. Then it, it was between two players.
18:43
It was between Jeanty and it was between Tet, McMillan. So if there's a trade that happens from... And you just gotta have to follow throughout the day.
18:52
If it does happen, I think something to look at is maybe taking Tet McMillan to go number 10. I have not bet it yet, but it's something I'm really looking into. Um, I think he's like 11 to one or nine to one.
19:04
Because if they, i- th- they'll probably feel like they can get Tet at 10 and get some assets back and, and trade w- with the Bears. But, you know, at six, seven, eight, I, I really do think it's...
19:15
You know, they seem pretty, uh, adamant that it's gonna be Banks at six. Um, I, I'm not quite so sure about that. So Teter- Tetairoa McMillan to go 10. That's an interesting thought.
19:25
Um, give me some other bets, maybe in, in some other kinds of props. They bo- Yeah... Daniel Jeremiah had three quarterbacks and three running backs going in the first round. Do you see it that way?
19:37
Okay, so I, I bet the under in the quarterbacks.
19:40
You, you know, when I texted you the other day whe- when, when McShay was talking about, just doesn't see Shedeur going in the first round, and I know, you know, he can't really predict people, you know, teams, uh, uh, uh, trading, uh, into the first round.
19:53
And, you know, right now it's a coin flip, I think. And I do have over two and a half qu- uh, running backs being taken. I just think, you know, that, you know, one of the Ohio State guys could sneak in there.
20:03
I- Henderson, you know, he, he, he's a dynamic player. And with that being said, I, I took a shot. And this is the draft you gotta take shots, I think. Yes. You know, you and Luke i- has, have said that.
20:14
Positions, um, you know, teams who they're gonna draft or maybe where they're gonna go, uh, players where they're gonna go. I took a shot with Kansas City, and I still think you can get it to take a running back.
20:25
Um, and I, I c- I got 'em at 11 to one. I think you could still take that. Again, we're- these are shots.
20:31
And the reason why I'm taking more shots is that, you know, you know, I texted you on December 11th that I took Cam Ward to go number one, um, at the time the Giants really wa- you know, really wanted him.
20:43
And the Giants had to go screw up their whole draft by [laughs] going to beat the Colts. And Diana Russini came out and said the Giants were the one team that tried to go up, go up, go up to get to number one.
20:53
So back on December 11th, I took Cam Ward to, uh, to go number one at seven to one. So I'm, I'm, I'm playing with kinda some house money right now. That's the way I'm looking at it.
21:02
Um, I also took Green Bay to draft a wide receiver. May- maybe they wanna make a splash. I think you can still get them at five to one. I got, got them at plus 650.
21:12
Um, so there's a lot of things you can look at, you can look at w- in what, in what you wanna do. And, and I just wanna say this, too.
21:17
I mean, again, it depends on what they're, what they're allowing you to bet, obviously- Right... to make it worth your bang for your buck, but think about these odds, right? Five to one, seven to one, nine to one.
21:26
I mean, when do you get such casual numbers, uh, in, in an event like this? And, and again, I relate it to if the, you know, if the Rockies beat the Dodgers, right, well, that's like a plus 375, let's say, winner.
21:38
I mean, think about- Yeah... what this is. And, and again, they're probably not letting you bet nearly as much as they would on the Rockies, don't get me wrong. Right.
21:45
But I do think there's opportunities here, even including, like, let's just take the c- the Commanders.
21:49
If you told me you wanted to, say, bet them to draft a wideout and then make an additional bet on them to draft a running back, nine to one, 11 to one respectively, at 29, where they're, where they're picking, I wouldn't hate that.
22:02
N- yes, could you lose both? Sure, you could, but it's just the way that the draft, you know, manifests, the way that it matriculates down the cascades down to 29, you have no idea what's gonna be available there.
22:15
So I don't know. No idea. No idea.
22:17
I took, uh, I took bu- I was, you know, what you just said, I took Buffalo to take a quarter- a cornerback at plus 275, and I might go back and take, and, and have them take a safety at plus 600, uh, six to one.
22:29
Um, so you just, you just don't, you don't know. Um, I did take a long shot. I, I tweeted this out last night. Seattle to dr- draft Jalen Milroe at 20 to one, if anyone wants to throw some pizza money- Wow...
22:39
or have some fun with that. Yeah, by the way, Tre Amos, uh, paired with Buffalo a lot at 30 as well, so that would play into your, uh, your cornerback theory as well. Michael, good luck with your bets tonight.
22:50
All right, guys, have a good one. You too. Zach Cohen on tennis, the NBA, and the NFL next on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
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23:15
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23:29
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. Uh, Dan Groeschel, "Some like watching Christmas movies on Christmas. Others like Halloween movies on Halloween.
23:39
I celebrate this special day each year by watching Kevin Costner's masterpiece, Draft Day." I see what you did there.
23:45
Tronsky, "I have a bone to pick, uh, bone to pick with that Colorado fan, Gill, and he said he watched all of Shedeur's games and that he's not great. I am in Colorado, have watched 80% of his games.
23:56
Yes, he has flaws trying to extend plays, as most young quarterbacks do, but his accuracy and poise are underrated." Talking about Shedeur Sanders there. Chris Heath, "Am I hearing this right?
24:06
I think I won an award bet, but now I have to check which account?" Uh, between William Hill and Caesars you're talking about? No, I think they're... I think you'll be fine.
24:13
Tony Tags, @TonyTaglione, "Draft day used to be glorious. In 2021, my brother and I drove from Central Washington to Northern Oregon to get a one-player middle on defensive players taken. Last five picks were defense.
24:25
Cashed both bets. Thank you." Joe Tryon, I guess, is, was his buddy who did that with him. Uh, North c- uh, NCI95, "Washington Commanders to select a wideout 10 to one at FanDuel currently in North Carolina. LFG.
24:36
I'm taking a shot 'cause why blanking not," he says. That's, that's the attitude.
24:41
Chad Lee, "Regarding booking the draft, is this bet vehicle," as you call it, "sustainable long-term in Nevada given NFL draft outcomes are in fact predetermined. Well, they're not predetermined.
24:52
Uh, Derek Stevens, he says as an example, shows a very public lack of enthusiasm in booking the event given the lack of profitability. There's no question about that. Uh, they don't wanna book it at all in some cases.
25:03
Um, again, my, my whole thing is, look, there's a reason they keep building casinos and they keep, keep building sportsbooks, right? They're gonna be fine. They're gonna win long term no matter what.
25:13
Here you have this one event that has been, you know, just a little, a little drop in the bucket for, for, uh, for bettors over the years. And the fact that you would, like, not even, right?
25:24
The, the notion of a loss leader in, in Business 101, that that is not something that they would even want to entertain and, as they peel back from this.
25:33
Even though they've won, you know, they, they, they didn't really lose. In some cases they won, but in some cases they didn't lose badly the last two years. It's just, uh, like everything, a bad look in my opinion.
25:45
Of course, they, they have their own business, uh, reasons for doing what they do. Do I think it's a, a, a, a absolutely a done deal that it will exist long term, to answer your question? No, I do not. I do not.
25:55
Uh, Zach Cohen is kind enough to join us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, bettingonx. Part of the whole glue that holds this whole operation together.
26:02
He is our, uh, senior writer and editor over there at vsin.com. Um, Zach, let me just start. Let, let's crescendo here. First of all, do you have any NFL draft bets? Do you partake in that? I only have one this year.
26:16
I found it to be a really tricky year.
26:18
The one that I took is kind of a dart throw on the Rams to take Shedeur Sanders, which I got at 20 to 1, and I'm starting to feel a little bit better about that because when I first took it, I thought they'd maybe have to move up.
26:29
Now I'm starting [chuckles] to think it's possible that he drops to them.
26:31
But I do think, you know, given the way he is described as an accurate passer that needs an offensive line, you know, maybe isn't great at extending plays, takes a few too many sacks, that kind of reminds me of Jared Goff.
26:43
And, and I feel like this is a team that badly needs a quarterback.
26:47
You know, obviously Matthew Stafford was just re-signed, but he's not going to be there for a long time, and I think that they're pretty set on the defensive side of the ball. They have some talent at the skill position.
26:55
So I think if he's there, it's gonna be hard for them to pass on him. Uh, to tennis before we get to the NBA. Uh, this is one of these things where I, I, I don't know how you...
27:05
You're having a much better tennis season than I am. I am getting murdered- I-...
27:09
this morning, and this is after having, like, a really good week, like especially a really monster day last week, where I'm like, "Okay, maybe the earth is returning to its axis."
27:17
And this, you know, I have this trajectory. I think in betting you have to be aware.
27:20
Like, I had this, this period where I bet baseball for many years successfully, and then it kind of, you know, like the, the edge dissipated. Tennis, I've had great years in a row.
27:29
Maybe the edge is dissipating 'cause I can't seem to... I don't know what I know at this point. Um, and by the way, this has nothing to do with my bets 'cause here, by the way, let's flash up my bets from this morning.
27:39
I am currently, I think, 0 and 4 updated right now. One of them's a, is a push, is a walkover. But I think I'm 0 and 4. They're all dogs, so again, you know, it's, we're not losing on favorites here.
27:50
But they ain't getting home, let's put it that way. How's it going for you this morning? No, honestly, you might be having a better year than me.
27:56
I'm down this year about eight units, which is, you know, a, a tough pill to swallow after I, I've been up 40 the last two years. So it, it's been a tough season for me so far.
28:06
I, I have been better over the last two weeks. I think I'm starting to get it figured out a little bit. But I had Hailey Baptiste this morning as well.
28:12
I thought that that was a match where given what we've seen in the 2025 season, it, it didn't feel like Veckic should've been favored, but obviously, you know, sometimes they know things we don't, and she did go out there and perform at a really high level.
28:24
But yeah, I, I'm hoping to pick some back up a, a little bit today. I, I have Borna Coric right now going against Matteo Arnaldi. I had Coric at plus 140.
28:32
Uh, just been a player that has been kinda lights out at the challenger level lately.
28:37
Uh, 17 and 3 in challengers, uh, since the start of the 2025 season, and Arnaldi is a player that I believe is kinda dipping in form lately. So this felt like a really good value. Hopefully I get that one.
28:47
I have a few challenger plays up on the website. And Iga down on, down a set on clay to the Filipino girl, Alexandra Eala, who beat her in Miami. So again, we, we m- something is terribly wrong with Iga.
29:00
Something is terribly wrong with her. To- Yeah. Yeah... to the, to... Oh, I'm sorry. Go ahead. You wanted to say?
29:05
No, I was gonna say, like I, I, I think that there are stuff going on off the court that is getting in her minds, and I do think that on the court she presses way too much and puts- Uh... a lot of pressure on herself.
29:14
It's tough to watch. All right, to the association. Uh, last night Celtics take a two to nothing lead over the Magic. They don't have Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown steps up, uh, 36 points, 10 boards.
29:24
They don't cover though. The Celtics were not really in cover position for, you know, almost all that game, so no, no surprise that they didn't cover.
29:32
That wasn't the case with Cleveland, who ends up beating, um, Miami 121-112. They take a two to nothing lead in that best of seven.
29:40
They were in cover position for most of that game and didn't get home, much to the chagrin of one of my contest plays there.
29:48
And then the other big one last night, of course, this is the biggest news in the NBA last night, Houston evens it up with the Warriors with a 109-94 win. Uh, Golden State never really flirting with winning that game.
29:59
The big news, Podziemski was injured before the game. He barely... You know, he was on and off the court.
30:04
But then in the first quarter where it went from one starters out to two, and, and two being big, much bigger, Jimmy Butler gets upended like a corner upends a wide receiver by Amen Thompson and, uh, lands on his tailbone, a pelvic contusion, as Matt Brown calls contusions, fancy bruises.
30:21
He's getting an MRI today. This is obviously, you know, potentially mammoth for this series and this postseason. Warriors are still minus 180, knotted up at one apiece.
30:30
Are, are, are you thinking about a Rockets adjusted series price? I already have the Rockets, uh, to win the series, and I have them to win in six, so I don't think I'm gonna add anything to my position.
30:40
But yeah, it's really hard to lay off Houston right now. Obviously, if Butler is out, uh, for even a game or two, that's going to swing things back in Houston's direction.
30:49
I just don't think, you know, they can afford to play Pat Spencer, you know, 20 minutes like they did last night. Like, you're looking at some very odd lineup combinations when Butler is not playing.
30:59
And I, I do think that there are going to be some games where Curry really struggles with this Houston defense. So I do think the Rockets are in pretty good shape here.
31:08
Obviously, very nice to see Jalen Green finally, you know, just knocking down some shots and finding some confidence because game one was very ugly for him.
31:16
If he is making shots, this is a completely different basketball team. Jalen Green, uh, last night for the Rockets, uh, with 38. Sengun, uh, Sengun 17 and 16 boards. Uh, but the Rockets turned everything around, right?
31:29
An- another big rebounding advantage for them. They, they had a 52/36 rebounding advantage in game one, 47 to 33 last night.
31:36
But remember, they were 16 of 20 from the line last night instead of 11 for 20 in game one, and 10 turnovers instead of just 16, uh, in game one. So that'll do the trick in addition to those, uh, the injury and illness.
31:49
Tonight, a triple header. Uh, let's do these in chronological order here tonight. The Knicks are now a one-point favorite in game three series, knotted up at one apiece, at Detroit. You have a play here.
32:00
Yeah, I like the Knicks tonight. I, I just think this has swung a little bit too far for me. I think New York is still a better team.
32:07
We saw in game one just how quickly they can kinda turn it on and outplay this team when they are playing the right way. I thought in game two, there was way too much kinda Jalen Brunson hero ball.
32:17
I think that, you know, that's kind of the general takeaway from everybody. They need to start getting Cat involved a little bit more.
32:23
You know, they need guys like Bridges to knock down some shots, but I do think that's going to happen.
32:27
My, you know, my pre-series handicap was kind of that, you know, this team just has a little too much, you know, firepower outside of the star players.
32:35
I think that Brunson, you know, goes head-to-head with Cade pretty well. Who does Detroit have that they can really rely on on a game-by-game basis?
32:42
I don't think that they have that player, whereas the Knicks have a few of them. So I think that we're going to see the Knicks kind of take control of this series again.
32:49
I don't know if it's going to be tonight or it's the next game, but I'll probably be on them in both. If, uh, if New York loses tonight, I'm definitely gonna be on them in game four.
32:56
All right, OKC, who dominated Memphis in the first two games, they're nine-and-a-half point road favorites in game three tonight.
33:02
And then in the series that has been the best, I think, uh, through two games, Clippers, five-point favorites in game three now that we're back at LA at Staples Center, uh, what was once called the Staples Center, hosting the Nuggets.
33:13
Any plays in either of those two? Yeah, I'm gonna be on the Grizzlies.
33:17
I, I-- It's been really tough to watch this team, but I will say it's been a team all year that was top five in the league in adjusted offensive rating.
33:24
I know how good Oklahoma City is defensively, but I would just be really surprised if we don't see at least one really strong performance out of the Grizzlies. And I do think the Clippers win tonight. I'll keep it quick.
33:34
I, I just don't think Russell Westbrook's gonna continue to play well the way he has in games one and two. He's not gonna shoot this well the rest of the series. So no play in the Clippers-Nuggets game?
33:44
Maybe I'll play it for the contest just because I'm trying to catch up a little bit, but not playing anything in the, uh- Okay... in actual plays. Zach, appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Thank you.
33:54
Joe Fortenbaugh next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It is draft day, of course.
34:11
VSiN knows every pick matters. Tune in for two special live shows, breaking down every pick of the first round from a betting perspective.
34:19
VSiN Prime Time, that's the VSiN Prime Time Draft Edition starts at seven PM Eastern, followed by Cashing Out Draft Edition at eleven PM Eastern. Full-blown draft coverage, baby.
34:30
Plus, explore our NFL Draft Hub on the VSiN Watch app, featuring exclusive analysis, team needs, and insights. Or visit vsin.com/draft for full coverage. Christmas for adults is here.
34:41
Finally, we're picking players tonight in the NFL Draft. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the feedback. Uh, let's see here.
34:47
This is, uh, Justin D.: "I believe the saying, uh, that Montasano was talking about is 'Fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me, you can't get fooled again.' That was from [chuckles] George W. Bush."
34:58
Yes, the famous quote from, uh, W. on that. Ryan Niemi: "I've been holding an over two and a half quarterback ticket. I'm taking a bath on that one tonight, aren't I?" Well, not according to Daniel Jeremiah, you're not.
35:09
He's got three quarterbacks going. He's got, uh, the Giants trading up for Jaxson Dart. He's got Shedeur going to Pittsburgh. And, uh, JD Emmons, our buddy from Alabama, he says, "Iga struggling on clay.
35:20
It's my fault, okay? I have her." Oh, he's got a parlay going that could pay one twenty-eight to one, uh, if Iga ends up winning. I assume that's the French Open you got there. Yeah. Yeah.
35:31
I think Iga's just struggling, period. Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he is one of the stars of ESPN Bet on ESPN, previously known as Daily Wager. Every once in a while, I think you might h- see him hosting a SportsCenter.
35:43
At least he did, uh, at one time. Maybe, maybe they have him in there as well. He's always on SportsCenter, don't get me wrong, uh, chumming it up with all of your favorite SportsCenter hosts.
35:52
Uh, before ESPN, he was a, uh, successful morning radio show host in San Francisco. Before that, it was the National Football Post.
36:00
And more than any of that, he still holds the record for most appearances on the Beating The Book Megapod. It's Joe Fortenbaugh, everybody. How you doing, Joe? What a day.
36:10
What a day this is to think about when I started betting this stuff back in two thousand eight when it was strictly offshore. Like, there was nothing you could do.
36:19
It was-- I don't even know if locals were offering any of this stuff back then. Like, you'd go offshore, you get the ability to bet the top ten picks, and that'd pretty much be it.
36:27
Then we get legalization, it pops, then everyone realizes it's actually beatable, so books, for the most part, stop offering it or offer terrible prices, and now we've kinda come full circle.
36:38
So we're all grinding, just in a different way, but it's good to be on with you, my friend. Good, good to have you, man. I appreciate the time. I know you're a busy guy.
36:45
By the way, the radio show is, is what time every day? 12 to 3, baby. 12 to 3 Eastern, Joe and Q. Q's there in Las Vegas as well.
36:53
I'm sure you guys see him running around, as he covers the Raiders about as well as anyone in that town. Okay. So you're, you're as, you know, locked in as anybody on this.
37:02
What do you think you know for sure or, or maybe n- let me ask it a different way.
37:06
What is something you think you know, obviously beyond the obvious at the very top of the draft, what is something that you have come to believe is going to happen? I love the way you phrase that.
37:17
Rather than just be like, "Hey, what are some bets you like?" Give me a certainty so everyone can go scrambling- [laughs]... and then we can post this on the internet. Fantastic work.
37:25
H- here's where I currently stand, 'cause it's like what's the point of giving you some of the bets I made two weeks ago? That's why I don't ask that, Joe. I mean, I, I tweeted about- That's why I don't ask that, yeah...
37:33
like two months ago I got a tip that like the Titans had sex on Ward, and you could get Tennessee specifically drafting him one overall at less than minus $2. Now, that's long gone.
37:44
So here's, here's kind of my thought, and then y- we can play it out from there. I'm under two and a half quarterbacks in this draft.
37:51
Um, it's, it's, it's, we're at plus 115 now, depending on where you look, so a lot of that value's gone. I, I just, I don't see this as a good quarterback class. I think that's what we've seen.
38:00
We, we are coming off a year where we got six quarterbacks in like the top 12 picks, and everyone just assumes supply and demand, most important position, teams are gonna trade back in.
38:10
But you go back two years ago when it was three guys that went in the first round, and they went in the first four picks. That was Anthony Richardson, four to the Colts, and then the year before that we got one.
38:20
Like, just because we saw six last year, I mean, how good are these guys? First off, Ward's going number one because it's need. Most people say he wasn't even better than Bo Nix if he was in last year's draft class.
38:30
I don't think Sanders is that great. I saw an over-under on him at 21 and a half, which basically says are the Steelers taking him or not? I think no.
38:38
I think everyone just assumes he's going to the Steelers, just like we all assumed the Steelers were gonna take Kenny Pickett a few years ago. Steelers need a quarterback, quarterback's gonna be there, let's mock it.
38:47
But every mock you read is, "Well, I'm not really sure the Steelers do this." I don't think they're doing it. I don't think the guy's that great.
38:53
It's not a knock on his character, it's not a knock on his family, it's not a knock on anything other than the fact that I think he's good, not great.
39:01
And I think Dart just got a lot of hype 'cause we had four months to talk about this. So I could be dead wrong, but I'm going under on the quarterback. I'm going over 21 and a half on Sanders.
39:10
I'm going over 24 and a half on Dart. I do like over two and a half running backs, and I'm also going under two and a half wide receivers. Those are both plus money plays.
39:19
I don't think Ebuke gets in there from Ohio State. I know he's a high character guy, and if you had a daughter, he'd be great to marry her, all that stuff. But- [laughs]... I think he's five.
39:29
It's, it's not a good wide receiver class, and I think the running back class, given the demand that we have, you could have two off the board with Jeanty and either Hampton or Henderson by the time the Broncos are up.
39:40
And I wouldn't be surprised if maybe the Chargers or the Bills, with the issues they're having with James Cook, I wouldn't be surprised if any of those teams took one in the back end of the first round.
39:49
See, Joe, that's why I asked it how I asked it. We got to where we needed to go. Yeah. And maybe we'll do five minutes on, on players you think are worth marrying and those that aren't. Maybe we'll do that next. No?
39:58
That's it for me, everyone. Thanks for having me, Joe. Yeah. I'll catch you next year. All right. To, to the NBA, sir. Unless, unless you had anything else to say about the draft. No, nothing? That's it? A couple others.
40:07
Okay. I, there's a, there's a bet over-under t- eight and a half defensive lineman slash edge. I like the over. Just be careful. I did some digging on this.
40:16
You gotta make sure you're well aware of the classification of these players. Travis Hunter is gonna be classified as a cornerback, and most books are putting that up.
40:25
But he told Goodell he wants Goodell to announce him as a corner and wide receiver. So I'd imagine there might be some drama with that when people are trying to cash their tickets and make some decisions moving forward.
40:36
So you gotta be aware of that. Also, Jalen Walker, the pass rusher from Georgia, a lot of people keep mocking him as an edge. He was a linebacker at the combine. I did some digging. He will be announced as a linebacker.
40:48
Jalen Warren, or Walker, excuse me, from Georgia, will not be an edge. So he will not count for the defensive line edge category.
40:56
I still like the over eight and a half there, 'cause I think there's gonna be a ton of these D linemen going, but I want people to be very well aware of that with the props.
41:03
I also see him going eight to Carolina specifically. All right. We're gonna have to work on your energy, Joe. Once again, every time. Yeah. We have to work on your energy. Uh, to the NBA- Been this way my whole career.
41:12
[laughs] It's been a huge problem. The NBA tonight, a trio of games.
41:16
Again, New York, Detroit knotted up at one apiece, uh, with the Knicks one and a half point favorites, then OKC, uh, once again, a big favorite, this time on the road, though, nine and a half point favorite.
41:25
Uh, they've just crushed Memphis the first two games. And then the Nuggets and the Clippers. Clippers back in LA, five-point favorites. That series knotted up at one apiece. Do you have a play on any of those games?
41:36
All of them, baby. Here we go. I like the Knicks minus one and a half. We're laying seven and we're laying six and a half in games one and two in New York.
41:43
I think it's too much of an adjustment just because the venue change. Carl Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges were a combined 3 of 17 from three-point range in game two, and nobody showed up in the fourth quarter.
41:56
I don't see that happening again. I like the discount on the Knicks. I also think we go over 21 and a half points for Carl Anthony Towns. Last game out, he scored only 10. He was like five of 11 shooting.
42:06
His points prop in this series had been 23 and a half and 22 and a half. Now it's down to 21 and a half as a result of what we just saw. So we zigzag here, we play the over. In the Denver game, I'm gonna play the under.
42:18
I think it's sit- somewhere around 212-ish. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but if you look at game one and game two where the closing totals were, they were higher than this.
42:26
The only reason we got 222 points in game one was because of overtime. That was actually less than 200 in regulation. And game two was like 205 or 207 in regulation. Look at game two's box score.
42:37
Both teams shot well, both teams shot well from three-point range. They're playing at a really slow pace in this series. That's the thing that's dragging it down.
42:45
So even though the total's been reduced again, I think you could play another under here. And then it's only a player prop for me in the OKC game. Jalen Williams over four and a half assists.
42:54
This one's been killing against the Grizz all season. Five of six it's hit in six match-ups. He's averaging just over six assists per game against them.
43:01
He's gone over this in both games he's played against them in this series. He's scoring a little bit more, but the shooting's been really good. That might drop.
43:09
As the series shifts to Memphis, I could see how, um, maybe you get a little bit more of a competitive effort from the Grizz, which means more minutes for Williams, which means more opportunities.
43:18
So under in the Denver game. We got the Knicks. We got Karl-Anthony Towns over 21 and a half points. We got Jalen Williams over four and a half assists. I love it. Uh, 60 seconds left here, Joe.
43:28
You, uh, as I mentioned before, you worked in San Francisco morning radio for half a decade. You know the Warriors well. Uh, assuming, and this is a big assumption, right, 'cause Jimmy Butler's getting an MRI today.
43:39
Assuming everything's okay and he can go, which I don't know if he can, but if he can, how are you feeling about the Warriors?
43:45
I assume if they don't have him, you're not feeling good about them at all, but if they do, how are you feeling about them in this series and beyond?
43:52
We're probably 2-2 coming out of the, uh, out of the two games in the Bay. Like, this is a good Houston team. They lost game one, and then everyone checked out on them.
44:00
I was on TV yesterday with someone who thought it was gonna be a sweep, and I'm thinking to myself, "Look at game one. It's a young team. It's a big spot against Grizzly veterans.
44:08
They were obviously overwhelmed by the moment. They shot like crap, and they lost the game." So look at last night. Everything kind of bounces back into place.
44:15
So if you're putting me on the spot to make a pick for the series, assuming Butler's okay, I still lean Warriors, but I didn't love them coming into this series, and I certainly don't love them now.
44:25
This Houston team can play. If the Warriors get past them, it's gonna be require a war. Joe, you're the best. Appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Love you, Gil. Thanks for the opportunity to speak with your audience.
44:36
I appreciate it. [laughs] You're very, you're very welcome. So it was very kind of him to say that. Joe Fortenbaugh, everybody, @joefortenbaugh, cleverly, on Twitter. That's where you can follow him as well.
44:46
Crack next numbers game. Visa, the sports betting network.
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