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Apr 24, 2026
A Numbers Game | April 24, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 24, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
47:13
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
0:59
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game, with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
1:11
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Midland. Happy day after the draft.
1:25
That's right. You know- You know what's funny? I've said that a couple times, like, or day after f- the first, just the very first round of the draft. That's right. But you know [laughs] the one we care- That's right...
1:34
about betting on the most, so. Because you can, you can still bet on the second and third round. Absolutely. Tonight, second and third rounds, um, I think DraftKings has some stuff up. Mm-hmm.
1:42
Or niche markets certainly do. Uh, it was a... It ended up being a fine, fine draft, a very good one. Not as good as the, uh, the great ones from the old school yesteryear, but like a notch right below that.
1:54
Ended up being great. We'll get into all that. We'll review the first round. Uh, we'll talk about the NBA games last night. We'll talk about the NBA games tonight.
2:01
Paul Carr will join us, talk Premier League and FA Cup as well. How about that? The FA Cup. Oh, all right. There we go. It's always, that's always the one that sort of sneaks up on us, but he's here to always remind us.
2:13
That's the one where they, they play the multiple levels of English football against each other. If you say so, yes. Like 98% sure. Uh-huh, I think so. Chris Felica, Steve Fezzik, that's the Friday staples.
2:24
They will be here. Chris Felica on the heels of calling it, Ty Simpson to the Rams, which he called on the Beating the Book NFL Draft podcast eight days ago. He gave a pa- impassioned speech about it.
2:37
He also did it here on the Numbers Game, and it happened.
2:40
In the words of Jim Lampley when George Foreman knocked out Michael Moorer to regain the heavyweight championship of the world more than a decade after he had had it the first time, it happened. It happened. It happened.
2:49
You know what else happened? It was one of my highlights of the night, was the, uh, me spoiling that for Gil and him yelling at me on text message basically. I mean- "Shut up, Kelly. Stop texting me."
2:58
[laughs] So that's my, that's my fir- Can I just say that? It's my first, my biggest pet peeve with the draft. I had to- Yeah... first of all, I wasn't yelling. There was no caps at all.
3:05
No, I know, but I, I took it that way. I had, I had to tell, I had to tell you and Will at one point. [laughs] I was like, "Can we please not do this? Can, can we please let people enjoy the draft?" I've got...
3:14
I have to tell you my draft, draft night story, but we'll get to that later because it is part of, that's part of the story. Okay. That's just my one pet peeve. I was like... And, and but you all were good about it.
3:23
Y'all stopped doing it at that point. I got stuck in a spot where I couldn't hear the draft, so I, like, was almost forced to, like, follow it. Oh, I see. Okay. Yeah, so I didn't think. I, I was being selfish.
3:31
That's all right. That's all right. Um, and then Steve Fezzik, of course, who was already [laughs] If s- if Crack is unscripted, Fezzik is, "Oh, I've got a script, and here's come, here comes a whole bunch of stuff."
3:42
So, uh, he wants to talk about the Westgate, obviously, uh, the Caesarification, as somebody said on Twitter, of Westgate. Uh, and he wants to talk about all kinds of things in sports betting.
3:50
And I have much to say about what he said, by the way. I got some- Yeah... I got some pushback on some stuff. Bring it, Stevie. Can't wait. All right.
3:57
I, I got a sport- I got a sports book, s- sports book story later for you that is going to- Oh... hurt your brain. Oh, no. J- just when, when you think you can't be surprised anymore this hour.
4:06
Is it worse than anything that's ever happened to me in these sports books? No, no, no, no. Yeah. It's just, it's just silly. It's just silly. [laughs] NFL draft yesterday. We'll get into the NBA.
4:15
We'll get into all that. We'll update the Killer Sports, uh, bracket cha- No, not bracket, but Killer Sports VSiN Challenge in the NBA as well. So the draft begins. Fernando Mendoza goes to the Raiders.
4:25
No surprise there. Um, I just, I do wanna say this about this though. P- all the reports are that Roger Goodell tried to get some NFL heavyweights, like Peyton Manning, to
4:37
sort of impress upon Fernando Mendoza, "We really would like to have you in Pittsburgh," at the draft itself. Hmm. "We really would like you to be, you to come."
4:44
Fernando Mendoza was like, "No, I wanna be with my family in Miami." His mom, by the way, has multiple sclerosis. It's not easy for her to go anywhere. Yeah.
4:51
I, I just find it so gauche that Goodell would not understand that and would s- and would s- pressure him in any way to do that. Anyway, that's neither here nor there.
5:00
I, I really hope, I really hope there was not much pressuring. Every one of these guys should be able to enjoy this experience however they would like to. All right.
5:07
Well, Kelly, I'm not gonna pressure you to come to my party, but I'm gonna get, uh, three heavies to come over to your house- Right. Yeah, yeah... and pressure you to come.
5:13
Um, and then the Raiders did the whole thing where they almost ran out the whole clock before they made their pick. Always enjoyable- That's good... when that happens with the first pick.
5:20
It, it- You never, you never know when someone's gonna throw five firsts at you. It's w- uh, you know what I love better than running out the clock? It's everybody standing up and congratulating each other. Oh.
5:28
"Hey, we got our guy. We got our guy." Bro. "We got our guy." Bro. "Great job. Great job." Bro, your, you stepped on my- [laughs]...
5:34
you stepped on my next comment, which is, and then we see the first war room of the night, right? Oh, man. Which is the most ridiculous one because they- It's the most ridiculous...
5:41
because they already knew who they were gonna pick a long time ago, and they congratulate each other as if they got Bin Laden. It's so great, man. As if they got Bin Laden. It's every year.
5:51
It's one of my favorite traditions. Oh, my God. All right, then the real draft started. This was the w- this was the pick that was going to start... the shenanigans.
6:02
We, now we did not know that there was gonna be this, a whole different tier of shenanigans later. Yeah. But we knew that this was... Uh, we were talking about this afterwards.
6:09
Was there ever a pick in a draft where the betting market flip-flopped as much as two did between David Bailey of Texas Tech and Arvelle Reese of Ohio State? I don't think there was. Arvelle Reese, yeah.
6:20
Yesterday during the day, all of a sudden it swung back to Arvelle Reese. After we were off air- Mm-hmm... it swung back to Arvelle Reese. The betting markets did, to go number two.
6:29
At Bookmaker it was north of $2 favorite on Arvelle Reese, because I think somebody saw that David Bailey took the Jets name off one of his social media, I don't know what it w- So, so he, they're like, "Oh my God, let's bet this."
6:44
So to the notion of what's, what's smarter, markets or mock drafters, I think both failed yesterday. Yeah. To be quite honest with you. Yeah.
6:54
Um, Bailey was even reported to have gotten even h- uh, excuse me, uh, Reese was even reported to have gotten even higher than that to go number two just before the draft. Anyway, Bailey is the pick.
7:03
The Jets go with David Bailey, and bang, Gill is on the board. Young Gill with a plus 230 right out of the gate. There you go. I like it. Let's go.
7:10
And then shout out to Peter Schrager, because of all the mockers, Peter Schrager got one, obviously, but two, three, and five dead on. Yeah.
7:20
He got Bailey to the Jets, he got Jeremiah Love at three to the Cardinals, and he would get Arvelle Reese at five to the Giants.
7:29
Shout out to our own Jensen Lewis, who had a, as I, as I drove in today, 50 to 1 on Arvelle Reese at number five. Matt Hicks in the back, who helps direct this show, I think he had 30 to 1 on it.
7:39
So the Cardinals go with... Let's, let's continue. So, so the Jets get Bailey.
7:43
Again, we're not talent evaluators, but we are sort of broader NFL, right, commenters, like we were last year when the Raiders drafted Ashton Jeanty.
7:52
And you and I both said, "Well, he's, maybe he'll be good," but it, it's a luxury pick for the Raiders. It's not exactly a good situation. Sa- same thing for Jeremiah Love. I, I'm sure he'll be good at football, right?
8:03
He's Jeremiah Love. All indications, all talent evaluators say he will be. What could go wrong? But he's with the Cardinals. Mm-hmm. And I don't know that the... I don't know.
8:12
It co- It's such a luxury pick, especially at three. But they go with him, so they go with Jeremiah Love. Again, shout out to Schrager for getting that. And then the pick that changed everything. Yes.
8:23
The Tennessee Titans at four, who, you know, for most mocks were gonna get Jeremiah Love, but Jeremiah Love was gone off the table. If you figured...
8:31
But on the run-up to the draft, we were, we're like, "Oh, they're gonna go defense." It looks like Robert Saleh. Everybody's saying he's going defense.
8:38
Not one mock drafter had him going here, and I'm talking about Carnell Tate, wide receiver, Ohio State, who, who was thought to not even be the first wide out to go as the draft came up, right on the run-up on the final days.
8:51
He goes four to the Titans. What? We, I mean, you and I have been talking about this the past couple days, right? It's been all this, all we've been hear- hearing is Jordan Tyson.
9:01
But not only have, that's all we've been hearing, we haven't heard a peep out of Car- uh, uh, about Carnell Tate. I haven't heard- No... a single thing about him in weeks at this point.
9:10
Not a, not one mock drafter had him going four. By the way, Schrager got everything else in the top five except for that one. And remember he was the guy that all, the whole run-up to the draft...
9:19
Oh, I keep saying the run-up. The whole, the whole stretch when we were talking about the draft, the last month or so. Mm-hmm. I was saying, he's the guy that I have the least idea where he's gonna end up.
9:25
[laughs] I didn't even... And I had no clue beyond that comment that he would end up at four. Anyway, he goes four, and so this sets off what I think then is the cascade of NFC East, here we come. Yeah.
9:39
Reese, Arvelle Reese. I mean, I'm talking about NFC East defenses. Arvelle Reese goes to the Giants at five.
9:44
The Chiefs, good on them, right, to replace Trent McDuffie, they trade up with Cleveland to get Mansoor Delane from LSU. Then Washington gets Sonny Stiles of Ohio State, and I'm going ballistic.
9:56
This is the guy that I said I wanted the whole time. Sonny Stiles, the linebacker, Ohio State, ends up in DC. Then it's Jordan Tyson to the Saints. Second wide out selected.
10:06
Thank you, Luke Swain, for giving us that one on the podcast, on the Betting the Book NFL Draft podcast, that he'd be the second wide out selected. Spencer Fano goes to the Browns after that trade at nine.
10:17
And f- and the Giants then at, with their second pick that they got in the Dexter Lawrence trade, they could have taken Caleb Downs. Instead, they decide to go offensive tackle with Francis Maigoa. I get it.
10:30
You know, at some point I, yeah, I guess you do. You, [laughs] you... I mean, how many pass rushers and defensive studs... By the way, if you're playing the Giants this year, what's your whole strategy?
10:38
We're just gonna run at all of you. Right, yeah, [laughs] exactly. While you all chase the... We're just gonna run straight up at all of you. Anyway, the Giants, g- I mean, good on them.
10:46
Two great picks according to most. And then the Cowboys I think did the smart thing. They trade up one to grab who I think is the, the w- the last remaining stud in the draft- Mm-hmm...
10:56
with Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State. They get him at 11. So that Carnell Tate pick at four allowed the Giants to get Reese at five. Right.
11:05
I think allowed Washington to get Stiles at seven, and with the trade got the Cowboys at, uh, uh, Caleb Downs at 11.
11:12
But you know, the way I said, said it to Danny earlier was like almost after that pick, all of a sudden you're looking up, well, who's next? And you're like, "Well, I don't...
11:18
They have far more guys available than we thought there was-" Yes... going to be for them, right? And it kinda just, it, like you said, set off a series of that.
11:26
I mean, we, we'll have Falica on later, Chris Falica, The Bear from Fox Sports, our buddy. He, he'll be on. He could...
11:30
Not only did he call Ty Simpson, we haven't gotten beyond 11 yet, but Ty Simpson obviously to the Rams at 13, which shocked everybody in mainstream media. But I...
11:40
And by the way, seemed to have shocked Sean McVay a bit, [laughs] if, if you wanna know the truth, based on his po- post-draft presser. He'll, he'll be competing with, uh, with, with, uh,
11:50
uh, what's my, what's my kid from Georgia? Stafford. S- no, no, no, that's Stafford. No, Stetson Bennett. Yep. Yeah, Stetson Bennett, the other kid from Georgia. The other kid from Georgia. Stafford, yeah.
11:57
He, he'll be competing with Stetson Bennett for the, uh, you know, second string job.
12:00
I don't, get to- I think, I think Mc- Sean McVay should have listened to the Betting the Book podcast, 'cause he would've known they're taking the Ram, they're taking, uh, Simpson at 13 I have a f- I have a feeling we're gonna end up making too big of a deal that, like, I don't, like Sean McVay, like they're already trying to make it like this big divide, like that they were not on the same page.
12:16
Like, McVay at that p- isn't at that point where he could ki- he could put his foot down a little bit more. The, oh- If that was really the case... sounded like he didn't know.
12:25
Anyway, you're, not the point of the whole thing. Right. Yeah Point of the whole thing, which we'll get to, we'll get to, uh, how we did on all this, and we'll continue talking about it. Um,
12:34
Reuben Bane with his short arm length lasting all the way to 15, where the Bucs couldn't resist taking him. You sniped me with Ioane at 14. Yeah, I got that one. More on the draft on the other side.
12:47
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:58
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
13:07
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
13:21
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:27
Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
13:34
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:40
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:47
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:57
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
14:05
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
14:18
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget the website in full effect mode. Kyle West, break it down.
14:33
Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, Keeneland horse racing picks, EPL weekend best bets, and coming up later today, Zach Cohen's Madrid Open tennis picks. What a day for us in tennis yesterday.
14:43
Oh, we gotta get our tennis picks up here. Uh, day two NFL Draft best bets, NBA and NHL playoff predictions, all of that is our spring special as well that you can get on the website.
14:53
Get full access through August 1st for $59 just by getting to vsin.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, "We get tweets beating the book." I didn't even check the, uh, the old Twitter machine.
15:04
By the way, the computer's working now back on, back on Twitter. How about that? How about, how about that? Trojan Ram, "Yo, I thought the Rams were in win now mode.
15:13
Instead of drafting fellow Trojan alum Makai Lemon, we got, uh, Trey Lance 2.0, who will sit behind Stafford for God knows how long. Did I mention I hate this pick?" Well, I guess time will tell. Yeah. You know?
15:28
I mean, look, I don't think there's gonna be any, a much immediate positive reaction, uh, from Rams fans today.
15:33
Brian Point Schaefer, he says, uh, "Just tuning in to see the smile on Gilly's face because of the Commander's first pick." Oh, I was so happy. I was like a 10-year-old. I was like, "Sunny Styles, baby.
15:42
I cannot believe he fell to Washington." So awesome. Uh, Fred Currier, "See you all," 10 o'clock East Coast, "for the show today." We're here.
15:51
Um, Lance S., "I had a monster night from the plays I got from VSiN in the, uh, host/guest. All started off by watching Gil's draft podcast. Won roughly 20 units." Ooh. "Also, also have some plays still pending."
16:02
Good on you. By the way, so we'll get, we'll get to our draft picks. I just wanna get these tennis ones out. Again, so two days ago, all of a sudden, I have just been very little tennis picks on clay. Right.
16:13
Two days ago, five picks, went three and two. Yesterday, eight picks, went five and two. One was a walkover. Um, four and 0 on the ladies' side. This morning, I only have three plays today. One is already in.
16:25
That's a winner as well. Solana Sierra, plus 116. She took down Maga- Magdalena Frech in, uh, straight sets. I like to say Frech when it's really- Frech... it's really Frech, I think. It is.
16:37
Solana Sierra takes down Magdalena Frech in straight sets, plus 116. Winner for us o- on the overnight. We have two tennis plays still to come today. These are both on the men's side.
16:47
This should be coming up pretty soon. Cam Norrie, baby, plus 118 versus Tomas Machac. Would you have gotten that pronunciation correct? Machac. Mm-hmm. Would you have really? Yeah. Can you spell it? Okay.
17:00
We, we, we've, uh, yeah, we've done it. We've done Machac before. Yeah. So Cam Norrie, plus 118. I'm gonna check the price right now to see what it is. This is on the overnight. Again, for subscribers, vsin.com/picks.
17:09
Um, they're in Europe, obviously, big in Madrid, so time zone issues are why you will not get all the plays on the show, but subscribers get them all. They get all of them. Yeah, Norrie's plus 115.
17:20
You can still play it, only a few cents worse. And then later, Rafa Nadal, Spanish sensation, minus 105 versus the Aussie Alex de Minaur. You can get this right around the same price as well.
17:33
Rafa Nadal has, uh, taken, taken the men's tour by storm. Clay not de Minaur's best surface. De Min not great on clay. Norrie and Nadal, two remaining tennis plays of the day. Back to the draft for a second. Um, [laughs]
17:50
Brian Schaefer's a Philly fan, by the way, so thank you for being so kind and gracious, congratulating me on, uh, on Sunny Styles. Did you see the, uh...
17:58
This is neither here nor there, but did you see the Makai Lemon interview with Laura Rutledge after the Eagles drafted him? No. Full sunglasses. I was in a location where I couldn't hear any of this, yeah.
18:08
And the Stevie Wonder- Sort of head motion with the sunglasses, you know, when Stevie gets to talking. Yeah, yeah, yeah. His head back. And, like, turned his back to Laura Rutledge to look at the crowd.
18:19
First of all, never turn your back to Laura Rutledge. No, never. What are you, what are you doing? Don't show any disrespect like that. Come on. First, not, not only disrespect, but, like, do you have eyes?
18:25
One of the best. And so [laughs] McKy Lemon, great football player, but that was a, uh, that was an alarming interview, let's put it that way. Whereas the, some of the other guys are such, such great kids, right?
18:35
Like Caleb Down's such a great kid. Sonny Stiles, such a great kid. And Mendoza, the greatest kid of them all, right? Just what a great... I know some people aren't into it.
18:43
Some people aren't into the, like, a thousand words a minute thing, but I think it's refreshing anyway. Um, anyway, congratulations to every- Here's, here's my, uh, here's my final tally on my bets.
18:52
I had 10 of them in the end. I go six and four for plus 5.34 units. I will take that.
19:01
Uh, shout out to Falica for the Ti- I didn't, I didn't do Ty Simpson to the Rams, but I did Ty Simpson under 24 and a half at three to one. So that was a big one. Shout out to Falica for that one.
19:11
Um, otherwise, I just, I got really good numbers.
19:14
Thursday night of last week, that was the exact timing of this, a week before the draft, Caleb Downs over nine and a half got a plus 164, which I, was just too good to resist. Um, that was just a great price on that.
19:26
And then the David Bailey the same night, second overall pick at plus 230. Yeah. Those three made the draft. Those three plays made the draft. Yeah, those were great. I, I lost a whole one unit on my five bets.
19:38
That's okay. Uh, yeah, you know. And like we talked about, I knew it wasn't gonna be a heavy bet one, uh, regardless. I'll tell you though, I got the...
19:44
The only two I'm regretting not making, 'cause we s- like, the top fi- the Jeremiah Love top five. Like, we've, we brought that up weeks ago at this point. Yeah. Had to make that. And never, never bet it.
19:53
The other one that we were talk- like Danny and I were talking about, the, the other Notre Dame running back, Jadarian Price going with the 32nd pick. I brought that up three weeks ago. Yeah. Remember that?
20:03
Well, well, that's... It, it's the, it, it, all, the only, only mocks I saw with Seahawks was him every time unless everybody thought they were gonna trade out.
20:12
Oh, I wanna say that was Schrager too, but don't hold me to that. No, I think you're right. An early mock where he had Jadarian Price at 32 to Sea- to Seattle. Yeah.
20:19
And we talked about it on the show that, that if that happens, that cash is obviously the one and a half, you know, the over one and a half on running backs.
20:25
But keep your eye on Jadarian Price, who I think of all running backs that'll be drafted in the first round, has the least, least mileage, has the least stats to go by. Mm-hmm, yeah.
20:35
That doesn't necessarily mean he's gonna be bad, by the way. Right. The, uh, and then I- Can I interest you in Timmy Smith from Texas Tech, who ended up being a Super Bowl MVP. Yeah.
20:44
Didn't, didn't play his whole senior year, I don't believe. And then of course, Gil, I don't, I don't know if you ever thought about this at any point, but Ty Simpson goes 13.
20:52
All of a su- I mean, I was, I got my, I got entertainment out of my 100 to 1 Carson Beck ticket, 'cause you go- Oh...
20:58
Simpson goes 13 and you're like, "Whoa, this is all of a sudden live if someone gets greedy at the end of the first round and wants to go grab a quarterback." So you and Will had the same reaction.
21:07
When, when Simpson went 13, it was early enough where- Right... you're like, "Oh my God, okay, this could happen for Carson Beck." Mm-hmm. And maybe we're just wildly wrong on these quarterbacks, right?
21:15
Like, Simpsons goes early. Because team- teams justifiably get quarterback crazy. But you know what?
21:20
Down the stretch, I don't know if you felt this way, 'cause by this point I had, I was, I had turned to basketball 'cause the Hawks- Yeah... and the Knicks were getting...
21:26
Once, once 15 and once, uh, Thieneman was over 17 and a half, that was the end of my bet, so I turned to the Hawks-Knicks.
21:33
But I was watching the ticker at that point for the, for the rest of the picks, and I just never got the vibe that it was gonna happen- Yeah... for Carson Beck. It'll happen tonight, though. Maybe. May- maybe you think.
21:47
I, mean, like now I don't care. Now- Wait... now I hope he goes in the fifth round. Wait, before we get on, you have to tell your story that you- Oh my God, it's like so lengthy.
21:53
Okay, so Matt, Matt at Fountain Blue, father's in town, and Matt Brown joined us too. We're watching him, that we're watching, and he did the great, the great lead up show here on VSAN.
22:01
And we're in the Fountain Blue Sports Book. Shout out to, to Humans and Tim Murray- Yeah... who did the show during the draft. Carried, yeah, carried it all the way through. My dad's in town. He loves the NFL Draft.
22:09
Loves it. So we're in Fountain Bl- Fountain Blue Sports Book, and we're trying to watch everything, right? I'm watching NBA, trying to watch the draft. And we show up, like, at 4:00, so the draft's, like, an hour away.
22:19
And they got NBA and NHL playoff games going, volumes, volumes loud. There's a bunch of Knicks fans in there. They're having a, everybody's having a great time, right? My dad's like, "Where's the draft at?"
22:28
And I'm like, "Yeah, they got it on the small TVs. Don't worry. It's an hour away. They'll turn it on," right? 5:00 rolls around, okay, draft time. They, they, they're not putting it on one of the big TVs.
22:38
They're not putting the audio on. So we're like, "What the hell is going on?" You've got all these people po- uh, pouring into the book, wearing jerseys, all this stuff.
22:45
And I'm like, "All right, let me go up to the counter, ask." Person at the counter doesn't know anything. I'm like, "Are, do you have the sports book manager or someone here?" Right?
22:51
Manager comes out, and I'm like, "Hey, like, NFL Draft's on. Like, are we gonna throw this on a TV, put the audio on? Like, that'd be great. Like, you got a lot of people out here." And he goes, "Oh, it's playoffs.
23:00
It's playoffs time for NHL and NBA. We're not gonna do that. It's playoffs." I'm like, "Why?" "We take, we take way more bets for NHL and NBA playoffs." And I'm like- Oh, no... and at this moment I'm like- Oh, no...
23:11
should I tell more about, like, what I do, i- or, or should I just play a little dumb here? And I'm gonna, I'm gonna play a little dumb.
23:17
So I'm like, "Yeah, but, like, you guys don't really book the draft, so this is a self-fulfilling prophecy." 100%. "If you don't have dr- you don't have bets at the book because you don't book that much draft stuff."
23:30
And he's like, and he's like, he, he's like, "Well, no, no, no, we book draft stuff, so no, that's not true." I'm like, "Okay, very, very, very limited."
23:37
And I forget where I went next with this, so I'm like- This is infuriating, by the way... "Oh, oh, like, it's mind-blowing," right? And I'm like, "You see all these people wearing jerseys," right?
23:44
And I'm like, "There are a lot of Knicks fans," right? So I'm like, "Who's watching this hockey game? Can you point to anybody here that's watching this hockey game?" "No." And then I get on to the next point.
23:52
Can I tell you something? These, the Vegas local people way overrate hockey. They're so, they're so Golden Knights focused. They have no idea. It's just, yeah. It, it was wild.
24:00
And then I'm like, I'm like, "Okay, so you took a lot of bets on the playoff games. Got it. What's the number one sport that you take the most amount of bets in in a year?" "The NFL."
24:11
I'm like, "This is one of the biggest nights of the NFL of the year. What are, what, what are we doing here, man?" Oh, dude. It was wild. They never changed it.
24:19
It-- They never changed it, refused to put the audio on any, on, in any of the big TVs. Drives me crazy. It was insane. Drives me crazy. By the way, not, I'm not overrating hockey.
24:27
Overrating the interest level in hockey versus something like the NFL draft. I mean- Forget how many thi-things they said to this guy too, 'cause I'm like, it's... I'm like, "By the way, you notice, like, the home..."
24:35
Not that this matters as much to me. Yeah. Hometown team. There's like 10 people wearing Raiders jerseys here, and the fir- they have the first pick. I also, my, I, I also have another pet peeve.
24:44
Bettors who say that you shouldn't... Like, how could you possibly know about the NFL draft? Why would you bet something like that? Which I hear some people say. Yeah. S- just stop talking. Stop talking.
24:56
It is tried and true. Yeah, we had a couple speed bumps in the last couple years, but tried and true, one of the most profitable things ever.
25:03
Um, and as I say that, I hear the voices of Derek Stevens and Chrissy Anders in my head going, "Exactly." [laughs] And that's why we don't like it. Uh, we'll give you some other first round betting highlights.
25:13
In the NBA last night, gotta get into that and tonight's games as well. It's a numbers game right here at VSiN. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Free picks backed by real analysis.
25:30
That's Just Win bets, baby. Mathematical models and AI-driven best bets across NFL, college hoops, NBA, NHL, UFC, soccer, and more. Plus a live weekend preview every Friday.
25:40
Subscribe to YouTube, follow on X, and get their free daily best bets newsletter at justwinbetsbaby.com. You can scan the QR code for more. They already had Wyatt Tomchek on. Apparently Kelly Bidley is going on the show.
25:52
Mm-hmm. And then I guess I'm going on too. I guess so. Yeah, they're trying to get you content. We appreciate, we appreciate all the, uh, all the invites. We really do. Justwinbetsbaby.com.
26:03
Uh, we got tweets beating the book. I'm just, uh, just gonna, just gonna rifle, uh... Oh, these are from, these are all people just going nuts over their, uh, over their draft wins, but here's some, here's some new ones.
26:13
Dan Grochel is a fan of the Packers. "I watched a win now team take a quarterback in round one twice. To quote the biggest headache in the NFL, Rams fans need to R-E-L-A-X, relax." It's a great point by Dan Grochel. Yep.
26:27
It really is, and I've, I've always said on this show, back in the day when I was a kid, the thing was you got to hold the clipboard for two or three years. And I'll just use my Washington Redskins, right?
26:38
Trent Green ended up being solid NFL quarterback, got to hold the clipboard for three years. Mark Rypien was a Super Bowl MVP, got to hold the clipboard for multiple years. Um,
26:50
Stan Humphries got to hold the clipboard for a few years, ended up in a Super Bowl with the Chargers. Jordan Love got to hold the clipboard for a few years, and people are like, "Oh, he stinks."
26:58
No, he got to hold it for a few years. You don't get to see that these days. He's actually a pretty darn good NFL quarterback now. So you never know.
27:04
If Ty Simpson is afforded that luxury, maybe he ends up that way as well. And if you're Dan Orlovsky, you already think he's great. Yeah. He, uh, I think- Let's, let's act like we know stuff. No, no, no.
27:13
It's a good, it's a good tweet by Dan Grochel. No, it's a great, it's a great tweet- Yeah... and, like, I heard Schrager this morning k- you know, kind of explaining it for the Rams, right?
27:21
Of, "Hey, you wi- you made your win now move earlier by getting Trent McDuffie in the building, and this is... You don't plan to be picking this high ever again.
27:31
So you go grab the g- the kid now, quarterback now, while there's other teams not running after him." Look, if you like him that much, it, it's hard to argue.
27:38
And the one, the one thing I'm getting a little tired of here these past couple years, Gil, is we keep saying, "Well, yeah, next year's draft class though." And it's like the past couple years, that has not panned out.
27:48
It has not looked as good come draft day- No... as it looked the year before. We had a couple more of those, by the way.
27:53
Kevin Ryan said, "Gil, to the Rams fans complaining about the Simpson pick, the same was said about the Knicks pick two years ago." Talking about Bo Nix.
28:00
Mickey Baca, "Rams taking Ty Simpson reminds me of when the Packers took Jordan Love instead of getting the Rodgers wide receiver help. Rodgers went on to win back-to-back MVPs. Does a Stafford MVP ticket interest you?"
28:09
He says. And Kelly, "How we feeling about the Knicks in a bounce back spot on Saturday?" Well, hold that thought. Hold that thought. This is the last thing- [laughs] He's throwing stuff now. Tell how I feel about it.
28:19
Just throwing stuff. I almost didn't say stuff, by the way. Here's the last thing on the NFL draft for now. We'll get back to it later, but, uh, here's just some of the big tickets, some of them.
28:27
Tate to go fourth was 15 to 1. I, l- I don't know a human being who even uttered it, let alone had that bet. Did Danny and I ever put together this, this award?
28:36
And I'm like, I'm like, "I expected this number to be lower actually." Me too. Me too when I just saw the 15 to 1. Arval Rees going fifth, uh, fifth overall pick plus 850. Jensen said he got a 50 to 1 on this.
28:46
Jensen said he had a 50 to 1. Yeah, just timing. I think this was- Just timing, yep. Yeah, this was yesterday closing odds, I think. Mansour Delan to go sixth, happened via trade to the Chiefs, 28 to 1. Ty Simpson, 13th.
28:57
Ty Simpson s- uh, 13th specifically, 15 to 1. To be drafted by the Rams was plus 550, although Falica gave that out, it was much higher than that. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Uh, Reuben Bain Jr., 15th overall, 18 to 1.
29:07
Kenyon Sadique to be drafted by the Jets, which is where he ended up, the lone tight end in the first round at 13 to 1 out of Oregon.
29:14
All right, to the National Basketball Association, and specifically to that Knicks game yesterday.
29:18
That was the first of the triple header yesterday, and the Atlanta Hawks have themselves a two to one lead in their first round best of seven series, the six three series in the Eastern Conference.
29:29
Well, remember, the Hawks wanted this matchup. So we'll spend the most time on this game 'cause the other two were kind of straightforward, but Atlanta was down nine to six.
29:38
Uh, they went on an 11 to nothing run to make it 17 to nine early. Hawks matched their biggest lead to that point at the end of the first quarter, 33 to 21, a 12-point lead. Lead got to as many as 18, Kelly. Mm-hmm.
29:48
56 to 38. Knicks would close the half on a 12 to two run, 58 to 50 at the break in favor of the Hawks. Then at 58 to 52, Atlanta would go on an 11 to two run, boost the lead back up to 15 at 69, 54.
30:00
Then the Knicks would have an 11 to nothing run to cut it to 69, 65. The lead would shoot back up to 13 before settling in for an Atlanta 88 to 80 lead after three, and the fourth quarter would be a slog.
30:11
Hawks would lead by 11, 96, 85, but seven unanswered brought it to 96, 92. Now it's 101, 96 with under four minutes left. Hawks are up. Anunoby three to cut it to 101-99.
30:23
McCollum under three minutes with a jumper to put it back up to four. Then Anunoby another three. 103-102 Hawks at this point.
30:31
Johnson layup made it 105-102, and then Miles McBride with a splash three to tie it at 105-105 with 1:41 to go. McCollum blocked by KAT. Brunson seven-foot floater and one. Knicks lead 108-105 from 18 down. What a story.
30:47
1:03 left. The Knicks have come all the way back. They're gonna win this game, right? No. Jalen Johnson layup, 108-107 Knicks. Hart misses a three. Offensive board. Brunson air ball, 19-footer shot clock violation.
31:00
Hawks ball down, one with 16 seconds to go. Will they hold it for one? No. McCollum pull up three seconds into the shot clock. Good. 109-108 Atlanta. Knicks have the ball now. Plenty of time.
31:14
The possession is a mess from the start. Brunson tried to get it to Hart. He got pinned in down below the basket. Tried to get it to Hart. Hart couldn't control it. Ends up fumbling it. Clock's running out.
31:24
Kuminga steals it. Ballgame. Hawks 109, Knicks 108. Up two to one as I said, heading to game four. And as to the question on Twitter, Kelly, how you feeling about your Knicks now? Eh, Knicks, Knicks basketball.
31:38
It's exciting. Um, no, I will b- not be, uh, I will not be chasing after them in game four. I will, uh, ride out the rest of my series bets and see how this goes. It is, uh... It's bad, man. It's bad.
31:48
You've got coaching staff scrambling for answers. Miles McBride, I mean, plays 31 minutes last night, puts up 14, th- uh, 10 threes, 14 shots overall. Uh, third- Ana- Ano- Anunoby 29, Brunson 26 in defeat.
32:04
Yeah, look, Jalen Johnson bounced back at home, had a good game. 24, uh, 24, 10, and 8 for him. I don't think that was a huge shock to see. Also wasn't shocking to see in the first couple games holding back.
32:13
Story of the series so far to me, uh, Gil, is it, it is Jonathan Kuminga has found a coach that trusts him and is willing to put him in in big time minutes, and he is delivering right now.
32:23
Listen, I'm gonna say it every, every game, and people are gonna be like, "I think you've said that before," but I'm gonna say it as a running joke. You know who, in a uniform he'd really look good in? Who?
32:29
Jonathan Kuminga. [laughs] A, a Warriors uniform. It's, uh- McCollum 23, Kuminga 21 by the way. Yeah, and I think- I'd say McCollum is really the story to me. He's just s- Sure... he's just so reliable.
32:40
No, he's been great. Um, you don't have the massive advantage on the glass like you did last game, although KAT did show up. That was nice to see. Big game, 21 points, 17 rebounds from him.
32:50
Uh, honestly he needs to be getting up even more shots than he is. 12 shots a game, uh, it's not enough. This is a series. I mean, the, the Knicks are, the Knicks are still i- too good in my opinion to, to...
32:59
Uh, this, I don't think this is going 4-1 Atlanta or anything like that. But I think we're gonna see a lot of these tight games, and it's, Knicks, you gotta close. You gotta close. It's been a...
33:08
It was a problem in game two. You... It was great to see you push and have the comeback in game three, but th- I mean, those last couple possessions were an absolute disaster. Brutal.
33:17
Uh, Hawks get the money 'cause the Knicks were favored by one, one and a half at close. And it goes over the total, which had gone down- Yeah... all the way to 214 and a half.
33:26
Uh, the other two games, Toronto and Cleveland. Toronto led by as many as nine in the first quarter, 21-12. They led 31 to 25 end of first quarter.
33:34
Led by as many as 10 in the second, but Cleveland came back to take a lead, and it was tied at the half. 54-52 they took the lead. 54-54 at the half.
33:42
Third quarter Raptors up by as many as seven, but it was only 83-81 after the third quarter. And then the fourth quarter happened. [laughs] 91-90 Toronto. The Raptors dominated the rest of the way.
33:53
35-14 the rest of the way, including 16 and, uh, 16 to nothing run to go up 25 at 124-99. They win it 126-104. Both RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes end up with 33. 33 points. 20 Cavalier turnovers.
34:09
And so the Raptors are on the board. Cleveland, uh, oh, home, home court. Everybody's held serve so far in this series. Cleveland up two to one. Game four back in Toronto this weekend.
34:19
And then the T-Wolves take a two to one lead over the Nuggets. Your Nuggets. Uh, we learned before the game that Aaron Gordon was not gonna play. Yeah.
34:28
And it, it- I, I had to buy off some of my bet, but I still, I still let some of it ride and I've got these Denver series bets. It ain't looking good.
34:34
It looked like the Nuggets didn't want to play at that point because the T-Wolves blitzed them. It was 25 to 11- Mm-hmm... after the first quarter. And at 43 to 29 they went on a 12-3 run to boost the lead to 23.
34:47
It was 61 to 39 at the half. They led by as many as 27 in the third. They led by 20 after three. Denver never got within 12 from that point forward. 113-96 Minnesota. Jokic 27 and 15 in des- in defeat.
35:00
How about Desunmu with 25 to lead the T-Wolves- Huge... with nine assists. And Jaden McDaniels backs up his mess, his smack talk with 20 and 10. By the way, note this three-pointers in this game, dreadful. Yeah.
35:14
Uh, twen- uh, was it 17 for 66 combined for 25.76%. So by o- Jokic two for 10. His three-pointer's broken right now. So big under in that game for under bettors as well. 34% from the field overall for Denver. All right.
35:29
Uh, this is, uh, this is pretty impressive by Minnesota. We'll, we'll get to this, to the games tonight here coming up. Yeah. But let me just ask you this. Um, one of the Hawks or Timberwolves wins their series.
35:39
Who is it? Timberwolves. Yeah. Timberwolves. I, I, i- I think that. I would, I even would've said that before the series though too. I, I, I mean, this... We've seen the Timberwolves do this before.
35:51
I mean, quiet last night. Anthony Edwards worried about injury stuff. He was in foul trouble and only had to play 24 minutes. That's big. [exhales] I mean, and this... If Aaron Gordon, Aaron- Oh...
36:00
if Aaron Gordon's out- It's over... it, it, it, it's probably over. The way the Nuggets played last night felt like it's over. Yeah. Yeah, it w- And Jokic has been, that three has been terrible.
36:11
All of a sudden it's like short game not great either. We'll get to three games tonight next, and Paul Carr on soccer.
36:17
[upbeat music]The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas.
36:36
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Still on the show today, Felik and Fezzik. Let's call- Oh, yeah, the comedy duo Felik and Fezzik.
36:45
Paul Carr standing by to talk, uh, Prem with us and FAI, uh, excuse me, FA Cup semifinals, was I about to say. That's right. I have no idea what I was about to say. We got tweets beating the book. This is from, uh,
36:58
Purple Kevin at 11/11, who was talking about Crack yesterday, says, "Always so great to listen to on the radio. Always appreciate his honesty and stories. I also feel horse players are the worst."
37:08
Uh, Crack was talking about that yesterday. "Their time is way more important than ours. Derby should be great. Six great horses. Great show, Gil." Thank you. Um, NFL totals.
37:18
Oh, what was his, what's his react- Oh, 'cause, uh, David Purdum came up with Imperial Palace. We were trying to figure out what, what was in place of the Link. Hmm.
37:24
What, what preceded the Link there in the middle of the strip, and David Purdum from ESPN said, uh, "Imperial Palace." And he's like, "What do I win?"
37:30
[laughs] I said, "I'll check the prize closet," and NFL Total said, uh, NFL Total said, "You probably have a Manscaped in that closet," still for him. Okay, maybe so. Um, Chris of St. Barts, "Sweet hit on Ty Simpson.
37:43
All credit to Chris Felika on that one, Chris." And Chris adds, "Uh, tailed your Caleb Downs plus nine and a half as well." Glad you did. Vig Hater, "Totally admire what you do.
37:52
Appreciate your time day in and day out, even if I can't listen every day. Solid all around." Thank you, Vig Hater. Yeah, appreciate that. Giuse- Giuseppe Bad, huh? "Big thanks to all of you.
38:00
Had Simpson under, Simpson first round, over quarterbacks first round, Simpson on the Rams after listening to your shows. Uh, I guess Mitch and Paul, he's, he included as well in here. Now we just need Beck first round,
38:10
and I can thank Kelly Bedell." No. Yeah, that didn't happen. Oh. That didn't happen. Paul, Paul, Paul. Yayo, "Limited on Fanatics, but holy blank, shout out Chris Felika. He had, uh,
38:22
Ty Simpson going," or no, he had, "Rams first pick being a quarterback. So many ways to bet it," right? What were those odds? Those were- Did you screenshot? 15 to one. Okay.
38:32
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Big time shout out to Chris Felika on the Rams taking Simpson. It pays to listen, y'all," in caps. Uh, let's see. Nate Green, "Listened to a ton of draft mental,"
38:44
he has a word for them, "because I like to waste my life, and nobody had a nugget like the Bear hat on Simpson." Mm-hmm.
38:50
John Balducci, "Thanks Chris Felika, 22 to one Simpson to go 13 overall," and on and on till breaking dawn with all these. One more, Jason Williams, "Many thanks.
38:58
Had Rams first pick at quarterback at 13 to one and Ty Simpson to the Rams specifically at plus 650." That, that was, like, one of the first, like, draft takes we had too, it felt, it felt like.
39:09
Felika, Felika brought this up weeks ago at this point. He actually himself was sort of talking about it way back when. I know, a long time ago. Like- Yeah... dur- like, still before the Natty even happened- Oh, wow...
39:24
that it could be a thing. Paul Carr joins us now, Curtis the Progressive guest line. He works at True Media Networks, where I believe he is the, uh, the king of all media there, I believe is his title.
39:35
Um, you can follow him on Twitter at Paul Carr. P-A-U-L is how you pel- spell Paul. It's the conventional way. You know, these kids go with the strange spellings these days. [laughs] And C-A-R-R for his last name.
39:45
Paul, what's happening? I'm good. I'm good. Uh, my daughter likes to go to swim meets.
39:50
She's a swimmer, so we'll go watch high schools, and one of them s- there was one girl spelled her name P-Y-P-E-R-E this week, which is Piper somehow. P-Y-P-P-R-E? P-Y-P-E-R-E is Piper. Wow. I got one for my KML days.
40:04
Should I tell this- Kids these days... have I told this story from KML? I don't know.
40:07
I used to take, I used to do a slow jam show, and I used to take requests, and, you know, folks would call older, younger, and this- Oh, I know this story [laughs] No, no, that's not that one I'm gonna tell. Oh [laughs].
40:15
This, this little, this young girl, yeah, I was in my 20s, this young girl, she was probably in her teens at the time, she called in 'cause she, she was adorable. She was always, had a great personality.
40:23
She was like, um, she's like, "I wanna send a shout-out to my boyfriend," whoever it was. And I was like, "Who's this?" She goes, "You know who this is, Gil," 'cause she called a million times.
40:31
She goes, "This is Shaquandelon." Uh, she's like, I was like, "Okay, how do you spell your name?" Not that I needed to know, but I was just curious. [laughs] And she was like, "Why don't you try it?"
40:37
I was like, "Okay, S-H-A-Q-U..." And she starts screaming at me, and she's like, "S-H-E-K-W..." And she just went off from there [laughs]. I'm dying here. L-Y-N-N-E-E. It was fantastic. Adorable girl. Yeah, no doubt.
40:50
I wonder what Shaquandelon's doing these days. Hope she's okay. [laughs] Shout out to her. Paul Carr is much easier. Pay, P-A-U-L C-A-R-R. All right. Yeah. You have one Prem pick for us tomorrow. What do you got? Yes.
41:03
Uh, we're just gonna keep fading Tottenham because they haven't won a game since December 28th, winless in 15 straight in the Premier League.
41:10
Uh, they gave up a stoppage time equalizer against Brighton last week, so they keep kind of inventing new ways to lose or at least not win. Uh, they're in the relegation zone. Doesn't look good for them.
41:19
So actually, I'm, this may be the first time all year I bet Wolverhampton. Uh, I will take the Wolverhampton double chance at plus 115 against Tottenham tomorrow. Uh, Wolves is already relegated.
41:28
They haven't looked great the last couple games, but they're back at home. They beat Liverpool and Villa there in the last six weeks or so.
41:34
Uh, so it's a little more vibey than usual maybe for me, but I mean, I don't know how you cannot bet against a team that hasn't won since almost Christmas. Uh, the last month of the season gets a little vibey.
41:45
So I'll just take Wolverhampton double chance plus 115 against Tottenham. The rare vibey bet from Paul Carr, Wolverhampton double chance versus Tottenham, a relegation special, uh- Yeah...
41:55
with W- Wolves definitely relegated, and Tottenham fighting for their lives, two points behind West Ham for that final relegation spot, or ahead of, however you wanna couch it. Right. All right.
42:07
Now there's, uh, we talk about Premier League. Um, we're familiar with the Champions League because you've, you've told us about it for so many years.
42:14
Top four in the Prem get to the Champions League, and then we talk about the draw and how fugazi that is, and we, we talk about it from year to year. And then once a year, we talk about the FA Cup.
42:24
Explain to folks what that is, if you would. FA Cup's a giant knockout tournament in English soccer that runs concurrently with the domestic season, the Premier League season.
42:34
So they're, they start with, like, 750 clubs, and this goes down to, you know, Joe's YMCA or something can enter this if you, you know, pay the fee and get through the red tape and whatnot.
42:43
And then the Premier League clubs, the second, third, fourth division, the pro teams come in later, you know, a few rounds into the tournament.
42:48
So we're down to the semifinals now, so we've got three Premier League teams and a championship team remaining here. But this is...
42:55
I, I guess imagine if there were, in college basketball, if all of Division I, Division II, Division III had a giant knockout tournament they kind of ran, you know, from November to March, uh, and all in, you know, just one game and done.
43:06
That's kind of what we have here. Okay. So let's start with a game tomorrow. Man City, and this is, this always trips me out, right? Like, American sports fans can't wrap our heads around this. So this is like...
43:18
G- give us like what a, give us an American sports equivalent to this. That's my, my, that's always my follow-up question. Yeah. What's this like?
43:24
It's, it's pause the regular season for college basketball and go play a, a knockout game.
43:29
So if you ran the NCAA tournament essentially concurrent with the regular season, and, you know, those were just kind of separate competitions, that's what we have here. But then they put, like, NBA teams and stuff, too.
43:40
Like, uh, I mean, this is like- Right... yeah, 'cause it's all the different levels. Yeah, yeah.
43:43
You run NBA Cup simultaneous with the regular season, but you also bring in, you know, I was gonna say CBA, but that doesn't exist. The G League or, you know- Right...
43:51
whatever other semi-pro type of league you want into that tournament. You'll end up with NBA teams at the end probably, but it, it's some fun getting there. Okay.
43:58
So just, so put us in the heads of the, uh, of the players who are playing for Man City. They're deadlocked with Arsenal. Yeah.
44:03
It's 70 points atop the Premier League table with five matches left, and now they go play this FA up, FA Cup game. I don't know why I have so much trouble with that. FA Cup semi against Southampton. Right.
44:15
W- are they mentally into this? At this point, yes. I, I don't tend to bet FA Cup much early on, because they're... Y- you just don't know what the lineup gonna look like.
44:26
A lot of teams will, the Premier League teams will try to get through the first few rounds with, you know, the, kind of their reserve team or something like that before bringing out the big guns once you get into the, you know, round of 16 quarterfinals, wherever it might be.
44:38
But at this point, you know, it's the semifinals, obviously. You can taste the trophy. This game is at Wembley. This is not a, a home game for either teams. This is a big one.
44:46
So you can pretty much treat this just like any A team game for all the teams that are left. Okay. And so you have the under three and a half goals, Man City and Southampton. Yeah.
44:56
So Southampton, familiar name if you follow English soccer. They're in the championship, the second division this season. Uh, playing fairly well, unbeaten in 20 straight games. They're in fourth place.
45:05
Uh, City is obviously playing well themselves, now up, uh, first place in the Premier League for the first time since August. But they're not blowing the doors off people like they have been.
45:13
In the last 22 games, they've only scored four goals themselves once, and 16 of those games had three or fewer total goals. Uh, they're not gonna have Rodri probably in the midfield, so there's a little bit of control.
45:23
And Southampton has some injuries and some missing players at the back, so I think they'll try to keep this tight. Uh, it's, you know, this, I think, will be kind of a cagey final type of game.
45:33
Uh, maybe we saw a little bit of a preview in how Man City-Arsenal went, where, you know, both teams kind of felt each other out, uh, and it, it slowed down a little bit at times.
45:41
So I think we'll have a final type of game. This is at Wembley, so under three and a half minus 130. Okay. And I should add, this is a 90-minute bet, 'cause this game could go to extra time.
45:50
Always a good- But this is a 90-minute bet. Always a good clarification. And then Sunday, Leeds and Chelsea. How are you playing this? I'm taking Leeds to advance at plus 135.
45:59
So this is a advance however they advance, whether it's win the game outright, win in extra time, win or advance on penalties. Uh, this is the to advance or to qualify market, some books will call it.
46:10
Chelsea is a disaster. I mean, choose your bad American franchise, and Chelsea makes them look competent by comparison. Uh, they're now the seventh in the Premier League.
46:19
They sacked their manager again for the second time this season on Wednesday. Uh, they've lost five straight league games without scoring for the first time since 1912. That's not good.
46:29
Uh, lots of injuries, suspensions for Chelsea, so this is really just a fade Chelsea, kind of like fading Tottenham.
46:34
Like, I have no reason to believe in Chelsea, so they'll probably win this game by three goals or something ridiculous. But I will take Leeds to advance at plus 135. All right.
46:42
So in the Prem tomorrow, Wolverhampton double chance plus 115 versus Tottenham. And then in the FA Cup tomorrow, Man City, Southampton under three and a half goals.
46:49
And Sunday in the FA Cup semis, Leeds to advance plus 135 versus Chelsea. Paul, always a pleasure. Good luck with all the bets. We'll be tailing you. Thank you. Have a good weekend. Paul Carr, you too.
47:03
Courtesy of the Progressive guest line. We'll come back, Chris Velika, all of his plays, and he's got multiple sports. Kelly and I will wrap things up in the NBA next.
A Numbers Game
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