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Apr 25, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 25, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 25, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:19
Uh, this is Christmas for adults, y'all. Christmas for adults, the NFL draft. Cannot wait. I need this to just happen already so that we can- so that the speculation stops.
0:29
But we got one more hour to talk this through, so I hope you will indulge us. Uh, Cleve TA, no finer draft analyst, uh, in my opinion, than Cleve TA.
0:38
No finer football follow, quite frankly, than Cleve coming up on the show. Chris Felica, The Bear, from Fox Sports, about to break the tie about the wide receivers, over under six and a half.
0:48
Uh, it's you and Zach versus... You're- you guys are the over. That's right. Drew and Matt on the under, six and a half. And so, uh, Chris has a bet on that. He's gonna break the tie.
0:57
First, real quick, uh, we get tweets at Bet You the Book. Am I allowed to read those? Yes? Oh, okay. Righty-o. Uh, this is from, uh, Primetime.
1:03
"Pretty, pretty sure Antonio Pierce was on the phone speechless due to hearing breaking news that the Commies are drafting May number two overall." See, stop doing that. No, they're not. Stop it. [laughs] Indiana Jet.
1:15
Uh, "If you're looking for someone with proven accuracy, Peter Schrager is five and one predicting the Jets picks over the last few years.
1:22
He missed last year, but was one of the few who accurately predicted that they would go edge rusher." And then he continues on, but essentially we wanna know who did Schrager have this year. It is Brock Bowers.
1:31
Jamie Leva, "If I can teach you to play frolf," that's Frisbee golf, Kelly, frolf, "and blow a bubble at the same time, can we start ta- talking sushi spots? Cashed my Nas ticket last night, 61 to one.
1:41
I might be able to afford it." Jesse Welch, "Listen, fellas. Swear someone gave out Nas Reid on ANG. I grabbed it too at 50 to one. Had to be Drew, right? Drew Dincic." It pr- it probably was. Probably was.
1:54
Um- I mean, we, we talked a lot about him, but I would... I wouldn't have con- seriously considered a bet back in November or December because I had Bogdanovich and Powell tickets I thought were looking great.
2:05
So it wouldn't have been me. [laughs] Someone gave it out. Someone did. Wasn't me or Kelly. Ladies and gentlemen, he's The Bear. You know him from Fox Sports and The Bear Bets Podcast.
2:12
He joins us now currently, uh, courtesy of the progressive guest line. It's Chris Felica. How you doing, Chris? I, I was the one that gave out Nas Reid at 60 to one.
2:21
[laughs] Of all people, the one guy who could not care less about the NBA was Felica all this time. I care about, I care about...
2:27
I, when, when do we officially get screwed on our Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year bet? When does that officially happen? Oh, next week. Next week- Okay... it happens officially. Yeah, next week.
2:35
We're all looking forward to that, believe me. By the way, 14 to eight in the known votes on that. 14 to eight in favor of Rudy Gobert. That's the latest you saw? Yeah. Okay. It's amazing. It's truly amazing. Yeah.
2:48
Not good is how I would define that. All right, Chris, let's start with the wide receivers. Break the tie for us. You went over or under six and a half wideouts.
2:56
I went, I went over ju- just because we're definitely getting six. We're getting the obvious three.
3:02
We're getting both Texas guys, and we're gonna get Brian Thomas even though the medicals, some teams have a red flag on him.
3:07
So all that really means is we need one team to poten- in, to potentially jump back in or take a wide receiver late, whether it's, uh, Labakani, whether it's a Legette, whether it's Keon Coleman, whether it's Tony Frank, so who...
3:20
someone. A- and I, and I think this, there might be a little thing out there, like if the Patriots take a quar... the Patriots need bodies and players.
3:28
If they take a quarterback at three, like w- who's to say the Patriots don't jump back in at the back end of the first round and, and take a wide receiver to pair with their quarterback? 'Cause they have nobody.
3:39
So, um, I'm on the over at p- at plus money. I'm, I'm, I'm on the over. All right. You also have a thought on... But you understand why the people... You, you, you should say this. You- Oh, abso- absolutely.
3:49
I totally- You understand the under...
3:50
I, I totally get, get the theory, and that's kinda, kind, kind of what w- uh, Todd McShay was talking about too, with the, like, why the offensive tackles and the linemen going early is the way to look.
4:02
Because there are so many wide receivers potentially available at the back end of the first round or early in the second round. So I totally get what, uh, what, what Drew and Matt are saying. All right.
4:11
And if someone c- That, that, that's, that's why they post these numbers and we get to bet into it. That's right. If someone came to you right now and said, "Okay, what's available right now that I should bet?"
4:21
What would you say?
4:21
I, I think the one thing that, that, that is still available that, uh, I bet, and it's actually a little bit of a better number now than when I bet it, which is interesting, is, uh, Jackson Powers Johnson from Oregon, the offensive lineman, over 31 and a half.
4:36
Um, he did not appear in Jeremiah's mock, if I remember correctly. I, I think he's someone that, uh, teams have a little bit of an injury concern and a medical red flag on him.
4:46
Uh, he's, he, he, he's a player that I, that I haven't really heard connected to the first round much lately.
4:52
And even if he goes 32, you're still a winner if the, the Chiefs or whomever take him, uh, with, with the last pick.
4:56
So, uh, uh, JPJ from Oregon, the offensive lineman, over 31 and a half is, uh, something that's still there at plus money. All right.
5:04
Now, of course, the question that everybody wants the answer to, and we will get it within hours.
5:08
[laughs] After one and two, if you believe it's Caleb and Jayden to the Bears and the Washington football team respectively, what happens three, four, five, six, seven?
5:18
I, I, I, I think, a- and Drew mentioned it before, uh, w- well, you mentioned it via Drew, is there, there's a pretty strong belief out there the Patriots want JJ McCarthy. So I, I think they may potentially look...
5:35
Well, may, the Giants are looking to move up to three. They want Drake May.
5:40
So there's, they, they don't think they're gonna be able to do it, but if the Giants were to move up to three, they would take Drake May at three.
5:47
The Patriots would have the sixth pick, and they would trade back with the Cardinals to go to four because the, because they would know- [laughs]... whoever it is.
5:55
With the Chargers, like the Chargers in at five would be the sitting duck trade partner where the Patriots would be able to get McCarthy at six.
6:02
So you'd have your quarterbacks go one, two, three, four, and then at five the Chargers would take- Um, either, uh, Latham or Alt, whomever, whoever they want.
6:12
Uh, six then, the Cardinals would get their wide receiver, Marvin, Marvin Harrison. And then at seven, the Titans would take whomever the Chargers didn't take at five, Alt or Latham.
6:22
So that, that's kind of what we're looking- Wow...
6:23
but, but if you know, if you notice this, you're, you're looking at a path of these wide receivers potentially falling a little bit, uh, to eight, nine, and, and that's something that I, I think y- you need to kinda...
6:38
I- if you're trying to marry a, a pick to the Falcons and the Bears at eight and nine, I'd be careful there, 'cause, 'cause I think that's an obvious trade up spot for teams 11, picking 11, 12, 13, 14, that maybe want an offensive lineman, maybe want one of the wide receivers that fall, uh, maybe want Brock Bowers, who might still be there.
6:59
So a- and I think that's one of the things that, as a Jets fan, like I, I kinda think that Joe Douglas is a little bit worried about that.
7:05
Like, they're kinda just sitting there, and, uh, they may not even know right now who they're taking, because it's ultimately going to be who is left a- amongst Bowers, wide receivers, off- left tackle, that, that they may have a, uh, a plan for.
7:19
So if one of their guys isn't there, don't even, don't even be surprised if Jets trade back a little bit too, because they don't have a second round pick. Okay, so just let me clarify that again. Uh- Mm-hmm...
7:29
Caleb one, Jayden two. Your scenario- Mm-hmm... that you just came with was, uh, Patriots trade out of three with the Giants. Giants go to- Mm-hmm... three and take Drake May. Mm-hmm. Yep.
7:39
Who trades with the Cardinals at four and takes JJ? The Patriots trade back to four. Oh, they trade back to four. Take, take JJ. They take JJ.
7:48
Uh, then it's Latham or Alt at five for the Chargers, and then the Cardinals- Mm-hmm... get their man, Marvin Harrison, at six. Yeah. Gotcha. Okay.
7:55
Now, because you're a college football guy, uh, you're different- Mm-hmm... you're different from all of our other guests. So I wanna get your...
8:02
to other guests today anyway, 'cause we got a great ranking from, uh, David, uh, Silverton over at Our Lads yesterday on how- Mm-hmm... how he has the quarterbacks and the wide outs ranked.
8:11
Can you give us yours for both of those positions? Quarterback, I, I would say Caleb one, Jayden Daniels slightly behind him, Michael Penix three,
8:27
Drake May four, JJ McCarthy five. Would you draft Penix in the first round despite, as, uh- Yes... you would? Yes. Despite the medicals? Yes. Yes.
8:38
And, and supposedly his medicals did not come back a- as bad as they were rumored to be. So like, i- it's one of the... And, and this is something we've talked, like I was not on...
8:49
Uh, like do I think maybe these guys are first rounds? Like, like Bo Nix, I don't think he's a first round pick at all, but someone's... you hear someone's taking him in the first round.
8:59
And I, I was over four and a half on, on the quarterback, 'cause I thought Penix would be a first round guy. I couldn't quite get there with Nix, but...
9:07
And I even joked on the podcast, like if I hear Bo Nix's name called tonight- [laughs]... look for, look for me at the local blood bank and, and wherever else in the pawn shop, uh, give, giving, giving things away.
9:18
But fortunately, I kinda got wind of that early enough, where I was able to kind of kinda get off some of my Bo Nix, uh, over 32 and a half position, so it won't ultimately be that bad.
9:29
But I do think we're getting five, a- and I, and I think... It was funny. I, the, the person who I trust and can get a lot of my information from, he, he gave me Quay Walker a couple of years ago at first linebacker.
9:40
Uh, when, when I had been, been talking to him earlier in the week, he, he was like, "What, what are, what are you looking at? And give me some examples." And, and he came back immediately with Hammer, Nix.
9:54
I mean, H- Hammer, Penix under. Hammer it before it changes. Mm. So he's very confident Michael Penix is going early.
10:01
And the other o- the other two that he said to play were, uh, were Latham under, which I think is super juiced now, and Terrion Arnold under 15 and a half. Uh, he, he, he thinks that Arnold is gonna go pretty high.
10:15
So tho- those were the three that my guy, who, who's been pretty good to me in the past, pretty confident on. And then it was funny, he came back the next day a- and, and was like...
10:23
Because I had put a couple more, uh, numbers in, in there for him, and he goes, uh, J- J- JPJ over. They, they, no, no way. Uh, that's, uh, probably better than all of them.
10:31
So that, that, that, that, those are the ones that I'm kind of invested in. Uh, Wiggins over is another one, but again, that, that nu- the, the juice is through the roof there. But...
10:40
A- and that's the thing, i- if you don't mind laying the big number, laying 240, 260 on the over, then, then go ahead and do it, 'cause it's more about the 26 and a half or 24 and a half rep position than I...
10:51
in, in my opinion, than it is 240, 260 or so. If, if the information's right, the information's right.
10:57
You didn't, uh, happen to follow up with your guy about the Penix thing by asking the, uh, the obvious follow-up of, uh, "Which team do you think it is," did you? No.
11:06
I, I did, I did ask him, uh, at the courtesy of Will Hill's, uh, thought about, about the Rams, and he said, he said to me, like the Rams don't have any more money on the book for Stafford a- after the year, so they could be interested in a quarterback.
11:19
They've done their homework on quarterbacks. But, but he doesn't, he thinks the Rams are in a win now position, and the Rams probably are not gonna go quarterback- No... uh, round one.
11:28
So- I'd have asked- Probably will... I'd have asked Antonio Pierce, but he was on the phone this morning, so I really couldn't. You should have. Yeah. Hey, hey. Ex- Who you picking?
11:34
Exclusive at Numbers Game report right there. [laughs] Antonio Pierce was on the phone this morning. That's right. Thank you, Chris. Appreciate it. You're welcome. Good luck. You're welcome, bud.
11:43
Chris Falica, who may be in the same location Matt Brown is if things don't go his way. [upbeat music] [laughs] Maybe. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Check out the new vsin.com, why don't you? Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state. That's always interesting. Mm-hmm. Betting tools, betting guides, betting splits Also some MLB stuff.
12:14
First five inning best bets and analysis for today from JVT. Got day baseball. Got day baseball in Cleveland specifically. Might be of interest to some around here. Josh Applebaum on, uh, top picks for MLB as well.
12:26
Adam Burke on Major League Baseball. And everything NFL draft you could possibly want, vsin.com. You gotta love, uh, sports betting, where there is NBA playoffs- Oh, yeah...
12:36
NHL playoffs, NFL draft tonight, and somewhere in Las Vegas, Gil will be sweating out a Guardians day baseball game on April 25th. Bro, I'm so glad it's not during the draft. Yeah. You have no idea.
12:51
Um, this is from, we get tweets at Beating the Book sky-high. @bet... What does it say? BetOrBrewer. Uh, "So you break serve/steal home court, then you consolidate hold court.
13:03
If you win the next, are you then holding serve, or is that a second break? What is holding serve? Is consolidating the same as holding serve? 60% of the time, I'm going to get this every time." He has no idea.
13:12
What do you say? He's joking about it though. Tom F., "I've had Baltimore in this bet, uh, most wins March and April, so rooting for Gil's Guardians." [laughs] I love that they're my Guardians.
13:21
Just borrowed them for a month, Adam Burke. [laughs] Uh, as a, as a backup he says he's got the Guardians. Thank you for that.
13:27
He says, "With A's and Yankees on deck, the O's could be the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear." I, yeah, uh, the problem is, if you're not at 17 right now, it gets a little dicey.
13:39
The O's do have 16, but the O's got those games against the Yankees coming up as well. You're right, the O's are the only other team that should be mentioned right now.
13:45
'Cause if you're two back, it's kind of difficult now with five game, five days left, or six days left. Uh, Joe Ryan, "The pick for Nas Reed was made on a numbers game." You ready for this, Kelly?
13:55
October 31st, I recall I was listening to it that day's pod, uh, to that day's pod at the gym- [laughs]... and placed my bet during my workout. And he shows, and he shows a screenshot of his bet.
14:06
So October 31st, we'll go back in the archives and we'll get that for everybody. I, I, I'm only chuckling because I've gotting, I've got... Gotting.
14:12
I've gotten multiple, uh, tweets with exact dates as well that are not that date. [laughs] Okay. And then the always lovely Phil Weiss, he says, uh, "It's a good thing coaches never lie, especially Harbaugh."
14:24
Actually, Phil Weiss, Harbaugh's about as straightforward as they come. That's almost as bad as your tweet. What was the tweet he had last week that was the worst tweet of all time?
14:33
Oh, he thought the Warriors were the opposite of the most beautiful thing in sports. Which will always be your worst tweet of all time. Yeah.
14:39
But Phil Weiss, yeah, it's a little, it's a little less bad, the Harbaugh thing. You want a updated top five odds real quick? Yes. Let's do, okay. So update, before we get to Cleve, updated top five odds. Yes. Okay.
14:48
No, no Caleb Williams, no Jayden Daniels included here, okay? Okay. Yeah. Drake Maye minus 4,000. Wait, wait. What, what pick are we talking about here? Top five. To go top five. Top to go top five.
14:56
Just odds to be top five. Okay. Okay? Drake Maye minus 4,000. Wow. Marvin Harrison Jr. minus 3,000. J.J. McCarthy minus 200. J.C. Latham plus 225. Malik Nabers plus 275.
15:10
Joe Alt plus 280, and then it dips down to 17 to 1. And I still react to that by saying absolutely do not bet any of those minus prices, because none of us knows. None of us knows.
15:24
Yeah, I like my Harrison positions, but man, minus 3,000, I, I wouldn't be running to lay that right now. You know who might, uh, have some insight on this? Cleve TA, everybody. C-L-E-V-T-A. Cleve stands for Cleveland.
15:35
Uh, he's been on the Megapod with us many times. He's been on a numbers game. He is one of the finest football follows there is on Twitter.
15:42
Uh, he comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line now, from his home of Cleveland. What's happening, TA? What's that, what's up, man? How you doing? Good. You mean the home of our Guardians, right?
15:52
All of our Guardians. All of our Guardians. Yeah, we're... [laughs] That's right. Cleve A- Cleveanalytics.com, by the way. I need a win today, Cleve. Let's go. Let's get it done. Um, okay. Yeah, we'll do our best.
16:03
[laughs] Thank you. I appreciate that. Where do we start here? What do you...
16:07
Le- let's start with what you think is the w- is the most conventional, conventionally heard take that you're hearing from lots of people that you just don't buy at all. What would that be? Oh, boy. Um,
16:23
that's a good question. Um, I'll say... Well, I don't know if it's conventional or not.
16:28
It's just something I've heard a lot, uh, in the, in the last week, was that, uh, Latu was gonna go ahead of Turner, uh, as the, the number one edge and number one defensive player. He got steamed up a ton.
16:40
So a lot of guys who, you know, I respect putting him, uh, uh, with the Falcons, and I just, I didn't buy it.
16:47
At no point did I buy a 20, you know, almost a 24-year-old, um, edge rusher who has got neck problems, who was me- medically retired just a couple of years ago, um, just leapfrogging a 21-year-old, uh, five-star recruit who produced the minute he stepped on the field at Alabama, who produced really high, uh, uh, combine metrics, played for Alabama, all those things.
17:10
Like, I just, that just never passed the smell test for me, and maybe I'll end up being wrong, and, you know, we could talk about it, but Turner under nine and a half is one of my larger positions at plus money, and I think it's still available.
17:21
Um. Yeah. But I did see he is, he's, like, minus 200 now, uh, to be the first defensive player taken. Uh, so maybe he, he's been steamed the other way.
17:30
But that was one that I was hearing a lot from, like, everybody, uh, because I think it was one of those things where Turner was almost too easy and almost too obvious, and people just want to be contrarian.
17:41
And I just didn't make sense to me, and I saw Schrager and Jeremiah's mock this morning. They both had him in the, like, 27 to 30 range. So clearly, uh, not, you know, not everyone is as, uh, over his medical issues.
17:53
And, you know, that's one that, to me, just never made sense. Well, so that's one of your bigger positions. I wanna, I wanna get to your others, but let me ask this question since you bring it up.
18:01
Do you feel like most of this draft run-up has just been
18:05
betters talking at each other and just, it, it just batting a, uh, you know, like, the tennis ball back and forth in a way that i- that is different from previous years where maybe we had some legit intel?
18:16
But, but short of that intel, it just feels like that's what's happening, right? Doesn't it to some extent?
18:23
Yeah, you know, and I, and I tweeted this, I actually tweeted a year ago at this time, like a couple days before the draft. I had heard at that time, this is before, you know, the, the blow up.
18:32
[laughs] I think everyone's mocks and everyone's, you know, it was like the first losing year you'll, you know, you could remember in the draft if you bet- Yeah... you bet it historically.
18:39
And it was all about, I think if you recall, a couple weeks prior, that was when all of the, uh, uh, Detroit Lions players and the Colts players all got busted for, for gambling.
18:50
And, um, you know, they're talking about how like the, in the locker rooms and in, in the facilities, there's these geo trackers that are tracking, you know, everyone's phones.
18:57
And I think a lot of the teams, I'm not, and I'm not sure if they got a memo from the league, but I think a lot of teams got freaked out about all of that and just sharing information, especially now that betting is so huge on the draft.
19:09
And last year was one, you know, probably the b- you know, it was gonna be the biggest year after the COVID year. And I think just teams just got tight-lipped and said, "We're just not going to risk it."
19:19
And so what you were hearing last year, I mean, at this time, people were still talking about Levis going too. Uh, you're, you're hearing, uh, Tyree Wilson w- was gonna go, uh, ahead of Will Anderson.
19:28
That didn't work out. Like, everything was wrong. I think Jalen Carter was supposed to go to Seattle. That didn't happen. They passed on him. Yeah. So- I remember that... you know, we saw a lot of that misinformation.
19:37
And, you know, I've got, I've got some contacts with teams and, you know, in the pa- years ago, I would've...
19:42
I mean, I could literally have a conversation with somebody [laughs] on a team about what they're doing during the draft.
19:48
Now, I, I can't get even like a response or more than just a, "We'll see," response to, you know, "Hey, what are you guys thinking?" Like, it's just impossible to get any sort of information.
19:59
And, you know, I tweeted about it last week that the same thing's happening this year, uh, in my opinion.
20:03
Now, maybe things have changed in the last few hours or overnight, but I think that what you're seeing from a lot of reporters is more what they're hearing from other teams, not, you know, what they think other teams are thinking are gonna happen, not necessarily from those teams themselves that are, that are making these decisions.
20:18
So I think that, that... You know, and these reporters have to come out with nuggets, right? Like, uh- Have to... Peter Schrager can't come out with nothing. He has to have some, "I'm hearing this, I'm hearing that."
20:29
Like, there has to be or he's just, you know, the, the, he's just not useful at all from, from that, from an NFL network perspective.
20:35
So, uh, you know, I think some of that is coming from agents and some of that's coming from other teams.
20:38
So personally, I don't have anything concrete anywhere, and I know people are talking, uh, I think you guys might have talked about it earlier, J.J.
20:46
McCarthy's steam going, you know, uh, top five and number three, you know, to the Patriots. Like, I'm hearing a lot of that, but I don't, I just don't buy it that just all of a sudden
20:56
the, the, everyone kind of knows concretely that's gonna happen. And the fact that he was still second in the odds, I think he might still be now, uh, to Drake May going third, just kind of says it all.
21:06
Like, if that was the case, if it was that hard, you know, you know, ironclad, you would've had him, you know, at least minus 1,000.
21:12
And so I think, um, you know, I think there's one of those where it was just value, and it just was closer to a coin flip than it was, you know, where, where he was sitting, you know, maybe 24 hours ago, and that, and the people are just taking the value and, and embracing the variance more than anything.
21:25
We got a... Oh, so go ahead, Gil. Just to update a couple of those. Yeah. So yeah, Mc- we talked about before McCarthy minus 200 to go top five, but he is plus 180 to go third overall. Drake May minus 240 there.
21:35
And then going back, uh, to Cleve's point on Dallas Turner, under nine-and-a-half, currently plus 140 on that, uh, on that draft position. So very bettable if you buy into that.
21:44
Give us one, uh, we got 30 seconds here before the f- before the break here, Cleve. Uh, give us one other big position you have.
21:51
You know, one that I liked is, uh, Trey Benson to be the first running back taken, plus 125. I think you can find that or in that, in that ballpark. I think any plus money.
21:59
Uh, the other kind of competitors are Blake Corum and Jonathan Brooks.
22:02
It's a really weak running back class, but you know, Corum is, just doesn't have a lot of the, the same, you know, athletic metrics that, that Benson and Brooks has.
22:10
And Brooks is coming off of a, of a knee injury, so Benson's kind of the cleanest of all of the top prospects. And I think Dallas would be...
22:17
You know, if you could find Dallas drafting Benson in round two, I think if you could find that exact, that would be a really nice, um, selection.
22:24
I haven't taken that one, but that, that's one I'm, I, I like a lot, is just Benson to be the first running back overall. Yeah, what do they have, 52? Is that their number pick, something like that?
22:32
52, somewhere in the second round. Uh, okay. Yeah. Cleve, hang out. One more segment of this. We'll get all your other, uh, big positions and how you see it going, your best instinct at three, four, five, and beyond.
22:45
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Gil Alexander, Kelly Biblin, live from Bar Canada here at the D, downtown Las Vegas.
22:59
Cleve Ta, C-L-E-V-E T-A, kind enough to, uh, hang with us for a second segment here courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Uh, wanna follow up on a couple things.
23:08
The running back that you said that Dallas will pick is who again, Cleve? Trey Benson from Florida State. Okay, 'cause my, my Cowboys buddy is texting me that they're obsessed with Jonathan Brooks.
23:20
So now we, [laughs] we have a little- Okay... yeah, I don't know if it's Brooks or Benson there. But- Um- But that doesn't mean... I mean, Benson could go ahead of him, you know. That's correct.
23:28
That, that, that was, uh- That's right... so, so minus first pick. I, I was just thinking if there is a connection, but, uh, but yeah, I mean, it could be. You know, that's a Texas...
23:35
You know, he, he's out of Texas, so they're close to him, but, um, yeah, that's interesting.
23:39
Uh, you said also off air, I wanna say this too, but getting back to what we were talking about, about the uncertainty of this draft. What was the Peter Schrager line about the, uh, about Kingsbury?
23:48
Could you repeat that for everybody? Yeah.
23:51
So Schrager, if, if you follow him, he's, he's had these kind of off-season podcasts with a lot of the N- the f- the old NFC West guys, with McVay and Kingsbury and, um, [smacks lips]
24:01
uh, Shanahan, and obviously Kingsbury leaving and, and going to Washington as their OC. He said this morning on air, he's like, "I don't even know what they're gonna do, and I'm as close to Kliff Kingsbury as anybody."
24:11
[laughs] They're like best friends, and so- Oh, no... he's like, "If I don't know, then there's no way anybody else knows."
24:15
So that's, that's a similar feeling [laughs] that sentiment that I have with, with kind of my contacts. So, uh, I just, that just kind of shows you How tight-lipped a lot of these teams are.
24:24
Now, maybe there's a leak at a team or two, but it's just, I think it's more of a, of a league-wide thing right now that, uh, the teams are just not going to, to, to spill all the beans unless there's a real purpose behind it and they want you to know it, and then that's a different story, right?
24:38
So it could be strategic on that end. Okay, let me, let me rephrase all of this by asking this, because then it gets back to what Drew was texting earlier.
24:45
Like, yeah, Jayden Daniels to Washington is a favorite, but minus 1,000 is a little too high. So okay, given the uncertainty of all of this, if I said to you right now, I'm like, "All right, it's 24 hours from now.
24:57
You ended up with either a very small win or a very small negligible loss in this draft," would you take that right now? Um, I wouldn't, only because, you know, I actually don't have as much risk right now.
25:14
I think with, with the lower limits, uh, all over the place, and just I haven't... I'm only taking big minus money, uh, wagers if I have concrete, like, information. That's how I've always treated the draft.
25:25
So I won't speculate and take, like, a long kind of a, a, a big minus number. So everything I have is pretty much plus money. Okay.
25:31
And so, and so, you know, I, yeah, yeah, I'm sure it's fine to take a small [laughs] a small win. But, like, I don't have enough risking.
25:38
Like, even if I lost every single wager that I've taken, it's not gonna really kill me. Okay. This isn't like, if this was, like, week five of the NFL and I lost every game, that would, that would take a major bath.
25:47
This isn't, this isn't even... I'm probably, I would say in terms of risk, I'm like, this is like a Thursday night and Monday night game combined [laughs] sort of, you know? That- Gotcha...
25:58
in terms of amount of money at risk. It's not that much. Okay. So, uh, to me, I'll take my chances. I just wanna get the perspective on that.
26:03
Okay, so then what are your biggest positions of the ones we haven't mentioned?
26:09
Yet again, like I said, a big, big positions is, is kind of relative, but I, I, the couple that I mentioned that I liked already, and then I'll, I'll add... So I have Nate Wiggins, uh, first cornerback at 40 to 1.
26:20
You can see I take a lot, a bunch of, like, longer shots. He's down to, like, 16 to 1. This tells you how flimsy the market is.
26:25
I, I tweeted it yesterday, and it just, it plummeted immediately just 'cause it doesn't take much to move these lines. [laughs] I wouldn't take it at 16 to 1, but you know, I took a long shot there.
26:34
I do like his under, um, draft position. You can fi- it depends on the book, but anywhere from 26 and a half to 28 and a half. And 27's a big number. That's Arizona. They could use a corner.
26:44
But, you know, you can get 26 and a half under at, you know, plus 211. I, he's falling in many people's eyes 'cause he's very thin, but he ran the fastest 40 at the combine amongst cornerbacks.
26:54
He's 20 years old, comes from Clemson. Like, I, I profile, like, I've got a whole database, and we could talk about, you know, historical trends and those sorts of things.
27:02
But th- this type of profile, like, teams will, will overdraft a very, very fast guy like this. Like, we see it all the time. I mean, you know, the Raiders used to do it all the time, right?
27:12
They did it with Henry Ruggs a couple years ago. So, like, I, I'm just taking the chances that there, there's enough teams that need it, that have a need.
27:18
The top of the cornerback market is not v- you know, Mitchell and Arnold are fine, but they're not, like, elite guys. So there's just not enough separating. I mean, Dejean is a, you know, hybrid safety cornerback.
27:29
Like, he might move positions. So there's enough wiggle room there for me that I think he can go under and then, you know, like I said, the long shot with, with him first cornerback off the board.
27:38
Um, I mean, otherwise I like to take a look at, uh, teams matched up in terms of the first position, uh, that they're drafting.
27:46
Again, lower limits, but you can get some really nice numbers, and I, I, I'd like the Ravens to take an edge or defensive lineman at plus 500. I got that this morning.
27:55
Um, my thought process there is that the, they do need an offensive lineman really badly, but the offensive line position, especially at tackle, is so deep that, a- and the edge rusher is so weak it drops off significantly at the end of round one, that they'd rather just kind of, you know, draft f- you know, uh, I guess horizontally and take the, the edge rusher or defensive lineman at the end of first round and then come back with a, with a lineman in the second round on the offensive side 'cause, you know, just kind of the value perspective.
28:23
So that's one. You know, my Browns, I have a plus 500 to take a wide receiver first. They, they don't have, they don't pick till, to pick 54, but th- they were at 500 last week. It's, it's 250 now.
28:33
I would still take that. I think it's between a tackle and a wide receiver.
28:37
Um, and you know, they, they only have Jerry Jeudy really under contract next year, and that's one thing, uh, you know, that I think people should look at if you're, if you're looking at, um, you know, these types of wagers at the end of first round.
28:49
Don't look at necessarily what their roster looks like today.
28:52
Take a look at who's under contract for next year because especially at premium positions, uh, because a lot of these playoff teams and these GMs, they have job security.
29:00
They don't need to necessarily draft for need today. Th- they have to plan ahead, especially when you have a quarterback with a, with a huge contract.
29:07
So that's a situation where, yeah, you might think the Browns are set at receiver 'cause they've got a couple of guys, but you know, uh, Amari Cooper doesn't have a contract, Elijah Moore doesn't have a contract.
29:15
Uh, Cedric Tillman, who was their s- their third round pick last year wasn't very good. So the, I think wide receiver's a, a good spot for them.
29:22
And then the last one I like is, um, Houston, or sorry, Carolina first pick to be an offensive lineman at plus 175. That's the second largest, or that's the second favorite behind a wide receiver.
29:34
And it's funny because only reason wide receiver is favored, I think, is because o- Xavier Legette, I don't know if you saw this. Um, so they have the 33rd pick.
29:42
He, he came on, uh, uh, a podcast a few days ago and said that the Pa- Panthers [laughs] said that they would take him if he's there. [laughs] I love that. But, which is funny.
29:50
And so the, his over under I think went from 41 to 33, which is where they pick, and that became the lead, you know, the favorite, uh, in terms of position group.
29:59
But then, you know, I told some buddies when I heard that, I started laughing. I said, "Well, I'm sure they tell that to 20, 30 different guys." Yeah. Like, of course, I mean, that's just like a common thing.
30:08
And he and Dave Canales, the head coach, was asked about it yesterday at a press conference, and that's what he said. He's like, "I probably told that to 30 other guys too."
30:15
So, um, you know, that one I think has value 'cause offensive line is a huge need for them. And um, uh, I don't think that they're, uh, necessarily gonna take Legette there, so I, I think that one has value too.
30:25
That's like- So those are just a couple that I like. Yeah, I like that. That's like, "That g- that girl said hi to me." Like you're the only person to say that to.
30:31
Uh, real quick, now you, you mentioned the thing about the trends, and I've seen you throwing this out. How, how r- uh, much do you rely on your historical stuff?
30:41
Yeah, so I think for me, like k- in order of hierarchy of how I, I look at some of these draft wagers historically has been if I have, you know, concrete information, like, that's automatic bet, right?
30:50
Like, this is fire as much as I can. Uh, if I don't, if I'm, you know, absent that, which is happening a lot this year, uh, I look at... I, I've gone back, I've got a database going back, you know, 30 years.
31:01
Um, and obviously the, the GMs that are, that are around now, I'm looking more recent, you know, it's like the last five years. Just how often do they draft younger players versus older players?
31:10
How often do they, um, draft for athleticism? Uh, how often do they draft for premium position versus non-premium position? All those sorts of things.
31:18
And you'll see, like, there's a handful of GMs that have a, quote-unquote, "type," right? Like Brian Gutekunst, who's the Green Bay, uh, uh, um, uh, GM. He was actually, uh, on a...
31:29
He, he had a, a, a press conference a couple days ago, and there's a clip of him, you know, they asked him about athleticism in, in round one. He said, "Yeah, uh, uh, high athleticism players have the highest upside."
31:39
And, like, he was pretty open about it. And in my notes you'll see, like, uh, if you go to my website, he's only drafted athletic players. We... I look at relative athletic scores.
31:47
He's had, um, six picks in round one in the last five years, and they've all had a high athletic score. And so, you know, Jerry Jones in Dallas, they only take younger players, uh, in round one.
31:57
Jason Licht with Tampa, uh, four first round picks since 2019, all are in kind of the elite athleticism standpo- uh, uh, character or category.
32:06
So those types of things I think are important when you look at kind of profiling the, the type of players that they'll take in the first round, and that helps me when I look at some of these kind of first, you know, first pick bets from a position standpoint, and then doing some of the mock drafts and some of the over/unders.
32:19
It gets... You know, it helps me kind of filter out some of the noise and gets me to, like, players that can really, you know, move up the board- Mm-hmm... or maybe are higher than, than what the consensus are.
32:28
So, uh, take a look at that.
32:29
If you're doing a mock or if you're, you know, looking at some of these over/unders, you know, that might help you kind of give you a sense of, um, you know, where certain teams might be looking from a position and, you know, trait standpoint.
32:39
That is so good, man. CleveAnalytics.com, C-L-E-V Analytics.com, and of course, @CleveTL, uh, CleveTA on Twitter, C-L-E-V-T-A. Last question, I need a 20-second answer. What happens at three, four, five?
32:52
Your best instincts hour before the draft is? [sighs] I'll go with...
32:57
I'll, I'm just gonna stick with Maye, Harrison, and I think the Chargers trade back with the Jets, and the Jets take Nabers, and the Chargers I know are being linked to Latham. I think he goes 10. Ooh.
33:09
That's my, that's my guess. Kelly, you would love that if Nabers went five. You don't care which way. Well, it works for me, yep. Yeah. Cleve, appreciate it, man. You're the best. Thank you so much. Thanks, guys.
33:19
Cleve TA, Guardians fan. He's gonna bring the Guardians home for us as well this morning. That's right. He's gonna do that first, and then he's gonna win on the draft.
33:26
Uh, honestly, though, that, that stuff, his ch- historical trend stuff on the draft, who else has that? That's awesome. CleveAnalytics.com. Kelly and I will run through all of our draft bets next.
33:38
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
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33:59
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34:07
New customers bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code VSIN, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billy. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Mike Alvarez. Oh, I always love Mikey.
34:19
He says, uh, "On my recent trip to Las Vegas, I posed as a valet for, uh, at, at Antonio Pierce and gi- at Gil's building and outed Gil as a certified Raider hater to Antonio Pierce."
34:31
[laughs] "He is not happy with you, Gil. You have a tennis player with a repaired Achilles chance head-to-head against him." This is from, uh, Jay, @TouchdownJesus.
34:39
"Not where I thought we'd be for a Guardians game on April 25th, but here we are sweating it out. Let's go." Motor City Mike. Oh, it was always gonna be tight. Oh, it was always gonna be- It's Cleveland...
34:49
we were never gonna run away. No, no, he didn't mean that. He just meant I can't believe that here we are on- Oh, that, that we got a chance to cash... April 25th, that we got a chance. Yeah. Okay, okay.
34:57
Three out of four, come on. Motor City Mike: "I haven't heard much talk about running backs anywhere." Oh, we just did. "Any opinion on first running back drafted? Brooks is the betting favorite at minus 20."
35:04
Yeah, we just did. Uh- [laughs] You know, you say it like we've spent all this t- [laughs] no, we've barely talked about that market over the past couple weeks. No, but we just, but we literally just did.
35:11
But we just did. Yeah, we just did. Two, yeah, two to one on Benson. I'm kind of... You know, as a Florida State guy, I'm a little upset I didn't get involved with that. Rick Olier has an interesting point.
35:19
He said, "Kelly was saying that McCarthy was minus money to go top five, but he isn't even the favorite to be picked three, four, or five at any book I've seen.
35:28
Is this the books trying to [laughs] is this the books trying to consolidate? What does consolidate mean? I don't know, and frankly, it scares me." [laughs] None of these people watch tennis.
35:36
Um- No, I mean, that's, I mean, that was, that was not my point. That was more Cleve TA's point, but it is, it is a good one.
35:43
I mean, he is minus, what did I just say, minus 500 to go top five right now, and he's not the favorite in any of those? Yeah. Brian M: "Do you have a flight home to the DMV booked for-" Minus 200. Sorry, minus 200.
35:54
"Do you have a flight home to the DMV booked for Sunday night so you can do a rain dance depending on how the MLB weekend turns out?" Oh, I see. He wants a rain 'cause Yankees are playing in Baltimore. I should.
36:04
I should look into it. And then, uh, Trip Tepper: "Jonathan Brooks tore his ACL last season at Texas, so based on your conversation on that medical uncertainty, Trey Benson would be a safer running back pick."
36:14
And then Coach Brian was asking, "Are you guys thinking the Cowboys draft a running back in round one?" No. No, no, no, round two. "I've seen the number of running backs over a half in the first round, uh, at plus 850."
36:24
No, I think we were talking... I, I was certainly thinking round two. Oh, Cleve chimes in. He says, "Yes, round two only." Um, okay.
36:31
We should probably give our bets Yeah, and that was the way-- And that was to clarify that even more.
36:34
Like Cleve- Cleve when he brought that up, he wanted to see if there was an exact price out there for Benson to the Cowboys, no matter, no matter what round. Right. Right. Correct. Yeah.
36:43
So that would have been a long number, much longer than you're really able to bet.
36:47
Oh, Jason H 11, just sitting here in New York unable to bet the draft, thinking I might be happy at the end of the night that [chuckles] that, that was the case.
36:54
And the three Jack H three one three one, great NFL draft coverage all week. Always appreciate the fact that guests are willing to admit that nobody really knows. Also, can we get the- Yeah.
37:02
Oh, he wants a commercial taken off. Um, okay. Yes, and I think, uh, uh, as we wrap this up, and we'll give our, all of our bets again. But as we wrap this up, I think those are the biggest headlines.
37:10
The biggest headlines are it's just different now. Mm-hmm. It's different. Teams don't talk like they used to. And it started last year, and it's carried over to this year.
37:19
And so there is a bit of a feeling of it's not so much intel anymore as just... Cleve said it about Schrager.
37:27
Like, the content providers have to provide content, so a lot of times it's based in a, you know, with more flimsy information than others, right? Yeah.
37:39
Or some speculative- Like, you know, f- for example, if a show is talking about Nas Reed being a good selection for sixth man of the year- Correct... a few months ago, but didn't actually bet it themselves.
37:49
Just like that. Just [laughs] like that.
37:51
Uh, and then there's the case of look at Daniel Jeremiah, who I pointed out earlier, while he provides a mock draft, he is clear to say, and I don't know if this is him recognizing, like, "I carry a lot of weight here."
38:01
He's like, "I've-" I think so..."I'm just attaching teams to players. I don't know if they're going where they're going." But yet now everybody's like, "JC Latham, top five." We don't know.
38:10
Uh, and then the other, the obviously the, the nuts and bolts mechanics headline is, I think we know Caleb Williams is going first. I think we kind of all know that. I'm pretty sure Jayden Daniels is going number two.
38:20
You know how I feel about that. I thought it strongly last week enough to make a bet on him on his minus 125. After that, I gots no idea. Yeah. None.
38:31
I don't- I, I, I think the key too is I, I know it might be frustrating for some, for some people out there listening, but this is...
38:37
Like, we've had a lot of smart guests on over this p- you know, this past week, but even over the past couple weeks talking about the draft, and their openness to, to saying that, I- Yeah...
38:46
you know, "Hey, I'm not betting a, a ton. There's a lot, you know, sh- information's shaky." Um, look, l- a lot of us got beat bad last year, and when we don't really see the, the, the landscape improving, right?
38:58
There's no reason to go s- uh, you know, chasing some wins that really [laughs] you're really chasing. We really think we're chasing. And yet look at all our bets. [laughs]. So here it is.
39:07
Here are mine, uh, in case you missed it at any point this, uh, week and last week and the week before, 'cause these were always the last couple weeks in the last three weeks.
39:14
Y- but you're less than you were a y- a year ago, two years ago, aren't you? Uh, maybe by a touch. Okay. Okay. All right Not by that much. Uh, Jayden Daniels, second pick of the draft, minus 125.
39:22
This is exactly six days ago. This is when the number crashed on him.
39:26
I had no intention of being in this market, but once his, uh, agent was liking tweets about how the Commanders had four quarterbacks at once, and, uh, he didn't like that, and Mike Florio ran with it as stupid, everybody decided that Jayden Daniels wasn't gonna end up as the number two pick, and I got Jayden Daniels minus 125.
39:44
Marvin Harrison, third pick is 25 to one.
39:47
I did that based on the blowup scenario of the draft, which is if the Patriots actually don't love one of these quarterbacks and they don't get a trade that knocks your socks off, there's the receiver, um, the best receiver in the draft staring them in the face.
39:58
They just get stuck and have to pick be- best available player. I guess we'll take this guy. Right. 25 to one. Joe Ault was the very first bet I made.
40:05
Fifth pick in the draft of the Chargers plus 450 because Harbaugh said he wants a cornerstone offensive lineman for his franchise. We'll see. They could trade out and not, and not pick him. But that is a plus 450.
40:16
By the way, if Joe Ault goes fifth, that's a pretty good thing for me because then I'm like, "Okay, at least I'm not gonna get crushed here." Yeah, you got a good number on that.
40:24
Uh, Roma Dunze bet under eight and a half was about Felika, who said the Giants are really obsessed with him. Dallas Turner under nine and a half. Um, that was the notion the Falcons are gonna pick him eighth.
40:34
I got him at plus money. Better number out there now, plus 140 right now on that same number. Plus 140, still there. Uh, not as many people think that he's going to Atlanta at eight. Jaguars' first pick.
40:43
Actually, you know what? Along with Joe Ault, this was my first pick, and I actually bet it twice. Yeah. Jaguars' first pick was the cornerback. Cornerback. Every mock draft back then had Jaguars picking corner.
40:54
I believe they have the 21st pick, if I'm not mistaken. Uh, no, wait, 17, something like that. Now I'm getting all confused. But they're, uh, mid, a little past the midway point of this draft. Um, then another- 17. 17.
41:05
Thank you.
41:06
Then like the Jayden Daniels second pick in the draft, I wasn't gonna get involved in quarterbacks, the total number of quarterbacks at four and a half drafted in the first round, but I ended up picking-- I ended up betting the under at plus 160 because I just thought the price on the over got way too high.
41:20
I've never thought Bo Nix is a first-round quarterback, and I don't think Michael Penix, because of the medical history, will induce a team to do so.
41:28
Now, I say that while saying, "Hey, I understand you're not anything in this league without a quarterback," so I get why teams go quarterback crazy. But at plus 160, sure, I'll take it.
41:37
And then the other ones were likely Marvin Harrison, 25 to one, going number three. These were just fun exacts here in town. Top three, Caleb, Jayden, Harrison, 40 to one.
41:46
Top five, Caleb, Jayden, Harrison, Drake May, Alt 200 to one, and then neighbors of that same top four at 200 to one. Man, those c- those could be fun if we get one of those home.
41:58
[laughs] If-- Let's just say, if Harrison goes three, my, my night is done. I've done my work. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's it. Yeah, exactly. Um, okay. For me, Jayden Daniels, number two.
42:08
Uh, I waited, like, like two hours longer than, uh, Gil, so I got 15 cents worse, minus 140. Um, and then tried to go bet it again, and the price had moved big time, so I'm Jayden Daniels minus 145 over Drake May.
42:19
That was basically just a substitute- Nice... for the second pick. Nice. Um, but, uh, ended up making that. Marvin Harrison Jr., this was my, uh... Uh, Marvin Harrison Jr., third pick, 30 to one.
42:30
Uh, we kind of made that together last week. Marvin Harrison Jr., too, the Cardinals specifically was the first bet I made, minus 170. Um, so that's up there. Malik Nabers then fifth pick plus 225.
42:41
Dallas Turner hit a couple times over three to one to be the eighth pick, and then him top 10 as well. So hopefully that all comes back around, uh, as, as it's looking like today. That would be nice.
42:52
Uh, and then Keon Coleman under 46 and a half. Uh, a little bit of arbitrage there on the quarterback situation. And wide receivers over six and a half plus 190.
43:03
Let's go wide receivers Keon Coleman excited to play real football next year. That's right. Football that will count. That's great. Um, yeah. I was- You kind of chuckling about it? You closed quickly at the end there.
43:11
So you, oh, 'cause you had two quarterbacks. You have the quarterbacks over and under. Yeah, it, it's kind of stupid to talk about. Yeah. It's just, yeah, I have over- Right...
43:17
I have over four and a half at even money, under four and a half at plus 115. All right. So I ask you, as we, as we leave here with 60 seconds, your best instinct, what actually happens?
43:28
Caleb first, Jayden second, and then what? You believe Jayden second, by the way? You're with me. I believe Jayden second. Yeah. I believe Jayden second. I think, I think three I have no idea about.
43:38
I real- I real- I think it's the, I, it's further- Is it gonna be a trade fest? Are we getting a trade? It's, it's gonna be a trade fest. Oh, you believe that. It's g- I think it's gonna be a trade fest, yes. All right.
43:46
And, and it could start there with three.
43:48
Um, I don't think our Marvin Harrison stuff's completely ridiculous, just 'cause I think there is a possibility that the pa- the Patriots get a little too greedy with what they're, what they think they can do, and then what they end up doing.
43:59
Um, I, it, all likelihood though, I think it goes quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. I don't know what team it is there at three. Right. But I think it's three quarterbacks in a row.
44:08
And, and I'm, I'm gonna go dra- I'm gonna go old, uh, Draft Day the movie, Kevin Costner. Arizona Cardinals, just draft Marvin Harrison Jr. You don't need to trade. All right. On three, which team botches this draft?
44:21
One, two, three. Giants. Jets. [laughs] Okay. There you go, New York. Uh, we've done all we could do. GoJoe and Golick are next to join from Vista, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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