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Apr 25, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 25,2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 25,2025 | Hour 1
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44:50
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Transcript
0:02
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
This is Wyatt Tomchek, everybody, next to me in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. How you doing? I'm doing... You know what, Gil, the streak is over. What streak? The Green Bay Packers- Oh...
0:33
have finally taken a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL draft. Well, I'm glad that you're, you're a Green Bay Packers fan. I'm glad you're happy about that. Yeah, did you s- I mean, I loved the announcement.
0:42
The crowd, right away, they knew what Mark Murphy was talking about. Yeah. Uh, Michael Montesano texted me right away because he hit [laughs] hit his bet on that. Good on Montesano. He hit Green Bay wide out.
0:52
He hit Buffalo cornerback. Mm-hmm.
0:54
And again, we'll, as we'll talk about here momentarily about the draft, this might be the only way to bet some of these drafts moving forward, is to take shots on teams' positional players.
1:02
So good on, uh, Michael for those yesterday. Um, not to mention Matt Brown saying g- take a shot at Courtland Loveland, uh, excuse me, uh, Colston Loveland going, uh, as the first tight end as well.
1:14
So- That was, that was a big surprise... uh, over Tyler Warren- Yeah... as, as Tyler Warren just, uh, Colston Loveland, by the way, as, as Tyler Warren just falls right into the lap of the Colts at 14.
1:22
We'll get into the NFL draft talk here momentarily. Uh, it is Friday, Falica and Fezzik hour number two, for Wyatt tries to hijack it into Green Bay Packers radio for two hours. Falica breaking down the NFL draft.
1:34
Uh, he's got some soccer picks as well. Uh, I know he has a baseball season-long play that he has made, a missed playoffs play. We'll get into that with Falica.
1:43
And I don't know, maybe, maybe, Wyatt, just maybe he has a, uh, pick for the next pope. [laughs] With our text chain yesterday- [laughs] I don't know... he, he was telling- Maybe. I don't know if he was serious or not...
1:55
he, when he was saying, uh, he was giving the odds out for the, uh, for- Why, why the silence when I said that? Why the blank pause? No, I was just, I was just thinking about how funny it was.
2:03
It's like, he, he sends the text, and I was, I tell them, I was like, "You could have told me these were horses, and I would've totally believed you," some of the, some of the names.
2:09
They have, they have convened the conclave, and, uh, the belief is that the, uh, I don't know if you know this, that the Holy Spirit will move the conclave to find the worthy successor, so of, uh, of, uh, Saint Peter.
2:19
So we'll see. Falica, these, these are odds that are actually up, by the way, offshore. Uh, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke, Paul Carr with his soccer bets this weekend, uh, we'll do all of that.
2:29
We'll update March-April wins.
2:31
I know that the Mets are running away with the one shop that had just April wins, but we will update the March-April, 'cause March-April is coming down to a four-team race, and we will get into that.
2:40
Plus, I have a couple, actually, it's two baseball picks in one. Uh, we'll do that, uh, momentarily as well.
2:46
NFL draft, though, round number one, uh, for me, it ends up as kind of a nothing burger, kind of a wash with everything.
2:54
Uh, the Saints did not, while, while Montesano, good on Montesano for hitting, um, the Packers to draft a wide out and the Bills to draft a cornerback, the Saints did not go defensive line edge at nine, so my big payday did not happen.
3:08
Um, hit just as many as I, [clears throat] as I missed out on. So it's a big nothing burger for me.
3:12
But I think the takeaways, generally speaking, on the draft are, are, you know, that and also, you know, one of the things that happened yesterday on the run-up, again, this is if you were able to watch live odds as the day progressed,
3:28
somebody knew that Tetairoa McMillan was going to the Panthers at eight. And so the live odds on the, on the exact eighth pick crashed on McMillan.
3:38
And it's one of those things where when you're watching it, it's easy to say now, you know, I, you hesitate because you're like, "Well, what would be, what would make you feel the stupidest?
3:46
If I, if I followed this steam, if I chase this steam, and then it ends up not being Tetairoa McMillan?" Finally, I couldn't resist. I did at plus 140.
3:53
He ends up a minus whatever favorite, like a huge favorite, and he does go to Carolina at eight.
3:57
But there, there's some wisdom in that too, which is we prattle on about this draft for weeks, in our case, maybe two solid weeks of it for sure, uh, once the Masters clears, and in the end, maybe [laughs] the best strategy besides the positional a- angle that, uh, we were talking about all week with the Saints and D-line, which didn't happen, but with Montesano's that did with Buffalo and Green Bay, maybe the other way to play it is just hang out till the final day, s- watch the live odds, and just go with that.
4:26
And maybe you just come in, you make one bet, and you're done. Like, that's another thing. Which then is, is, uh, tough for us in Las Vegas because they close at the- Yeah, can't do that here. Yeah...
4:32
and then you got scheduled maintenance for [laughs] the day of. Schedule, scheduled maintenance. [laughs] You do have to have a, uh, view to an off, uh, to a faraway place. Yes. Let's put that, let's put that clearly.
4:42
As far as the, the, uh, you know, the other sort of w- there's, there's other macro things.
4:46
One, Drew Dincic dubbed it as the flat Earth draft, where prospect four through 40, I believe he, he sort of couched it as, it, it's kind of a flat Earth.
4:57
There wasn't much of a difference in terms of evaluation regardless of position, and so if we have another draft like that, um, we have to sort of understand that none of us knows a damn thing And that betting, or the way I put it was, it's the draft is already the most inexact science in terms of teams trying to project talent into the pros.
5:20
It's already about as inexact a science as there is. And then for us betting on the inexactness of that is a whole nother level of meshugas, right? It's just, Wyatt's looking at me like, "What?"
5:30
It's a whole nother level of- I've known this dude for four years. I know that. I know these words. [laughs] Okay. It's a whole nother level of craziness, right?
5:35
Where you're like, "Well, are, are we really sane doing this?"
5:37
And so yesterday, getting back to the top of this, so, so Cam Ward obviously goes number one to Tennessee, and this was, we should probably say, you know, the history here, was that up on, up to the draft, right, and there was no last-minute trade prior to the draft, but every team went into that draft yesterday with its original first round pick.
5:57
That was for the first time in the common draft era that began in 1967. So we had never had the exact order stay put, right, without trades polluting it. Yeah, I was thinking about that. I was...
6:09
When, when they were going through a- and they mentioned on air, it's like, "Yeah, everyone has their first round pick," I was like, "Wow, is there's no trades?"
6:14
Like- Well, trade happened pretty quick after Cam Ward, though. That, that, that definitely, uh, threw us for a loop. Adam Schefter breathlessly, uh, if you were watching the ESPN telecast.
6:22
By the way, brief aside, was anybody watching the ABC telecast of this?
6:26
They, ESPN had their ESPN crew, and then, uh, Disney, obviously they're affiliated with ABC, they had their ABC crew, and every time they went to a, uh, you know, a player being drafted, they'd go to the montage, the highlight montage.
6:38
They jacked the music up so loudly that you could not hear the announcers- Are-... waxing poetically about the player. Is this, were you watching, do you have YouTube TV? Yes. You know, so I have noticed this.
6:51
I noticed it during the college football season on ESPN, where I was like, "Man, I can barely hear the announcers," and I could hear the band just like- So maybe it's a YouTube TV thing.
7:00
I, I don't know what it is, but I, I had that happen before. I hear them. The whole time I'm like, "Are they gonna correct this? Are they gonna correct this?" All night. Wouldn't, they, it didn't correct.
7:06
So, so right after Cam Ward goes to Tennessee, Schefter breathlessly, if you're watching the ESPN broadcast, comes on and you know the deal.
7:12
The Browns and the Jags make a trade up top, and the Jags move up to two from five. The Browns go back from two to five. The Jags get the number two pick. They get a fourth and a sixth rounder from the Browns.
7:25
But the Browns get the fifth pick, right, which they ended up using on Mason Graham, the defensive tackle out of Michigan. They get next, and they also get a second and fourth this year.
7:35
So they have two of the first four picks today in round number two, the 33rd and 36th overall. We'll see what they do with either of those. Maybe a quarterback, maybe Shedeur. We'll see.
7:46
Um, we'll learn a lot about what the Browns' plans are with what they do with those two. But they get the, uh, the fifth pick, the second and fourth, and next year's number one.
7:54
To draft Travis Hunter at two, and this is where I now bleed into sort of my opinion on players, right?
8:02
I, I'm on record as saying as great of a kid as Ashton Jeanty is, and it is a phenomenal story, a kid who did everything right, eschewed NIL money, stayed at Boise State, wanted to create a legacy there.
8:13
He'll get, he's like, "I'll get my money in the pros." Um, but I just don't know what the Raiders, like, I just think the pairing with the Raiders at six, what, are we making him out to be Saquon already?
8:23
We're making him out to be Derrick Henry. We're making him out to be even Josh Jones, who all three of those guys went to already good teams. And in the case of Henry and Saquon, are generational backs.
8:33
Are we expecting this of Jeanty if we're drafting him at six? That, that, that's just my opinion.
8:37
And then the thing with Travis Hunter is, and I kind of agree with what a lot of people are saying about Travis Hunter, which is you're trying to be both a wide receiver and cornerback.
8:46
The Jags are indicating that they're gonna let him do that. Can you be great at either if you are doing both of those things?
8:52
And every NFL player that you hear talk about this, to a man, says it's not going to be possible for him to be great at one of those if he's playing both of those.
9:03
And so, and the Jags, are they, are they a Travis Hunter away from winning the Super Bowl? I don't know.
9:08
I, I just, I just find both of those picks, Jeanty at six and Travis Hunter at two, to be a, a, a little dicey for me, and I'm, I'm happy to be wrong. I hope I'm wrong about both.
9:17
I'm certainly, I certainly hope I'm wrong about, uh, um, you know, these kinds of things 'cause they're kids. I only, I only hope well for them.
9:24
But just from a player personnel standpoint, I don't necessarily think they're going to be worthy of what just happened. But, but getting back to that trade, what that trade in essence did,
9:34
and I think we can trace it to this trade, because I think if that trade between the Browns and the Jags doesn't happen, maybe this doesn't follow.
9:42
But because of that trade, what ended up happening is one through six, so Ward to Tennessee one, Carter, excuse me, uh, Henry to the, it turns out to be the Jags at two, Abdul Carter to the Giants at three, Will Campbell to the Patriots at four, Mason Graham ends up going to Cleveland at five, and Jeanty to the Raiders at six.
9:59
Those six picks, because of that trade, ended up being exactly what we thought the first six p- picks were gonna be 48 hours before the draft.
10:11
So the last 24 to 48 hours where we heard the rumors of, remember the last, the last couple shows we did, last two or three shows we did, "Oh, Jeanty to the Jaguars at five. Oh, McMillan to the Jaguars at five."
10:24
Everything we thought the draft was gonna be at the top in, for the first three weeks of April ended up being the case probably because that trade happened.
10:33
And there's no way as bettors, getting back to our real point on this, there's no way as bettors we can anticipate stuff like that. By the way, the Jags and Browns kept it pretty quiet, right?
10:42
Up until, up until the day of. Oh, that was... Yeah, I was gonna, I was gonna ask you, were you a little bit concerned, I know you had Travis Hunter going number two, when that trade happened that the Jaguars moved up?
10:51
No. Okay. No. It, it felt like they were absolutely making that trade 'cause they think Travis Hunter is going to absolutely catapult that franchise.
10:59
Um, and there's, there's a bunch of other things about the, uh, the draft too, which is, you know, the books here, and then we'll talk about from a Nevada perspective.
11:08
Did the books, and Will Hill brought this up, he had, he was kind enough to have me on Shoulda Bet More, his podcast, yesterday, and he brought this up. Did, did the books leave money on the table because of all of this?
11:17
Like, I think people who won on this draft, probably it was more modest generally, and, and I don't know if the books ended up losing, but it felt to me like they probably lost a little or, or probably coulda won for the second con- you know, second consecutive year.
11:30
I know they took maybe in some cases a small loss last year. But I do feel like they might be leaving money on the table. Do I think their behavior will change in coming years?
11:39
I don't, because I think the muscle memory of them getting killed just is emblazoned in their brains and they'll, and they'll never change, despite the fact that they probably coulda won yesterday.
11:49
Uh, we'll come back, more NFL and baseball next.
11:51
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:09
Right now, you can check out round one of the NFL Draft recap, round two and three best bets, and Greg Peterson's MLB best bets.
12:16
Later today, you can check out Zack Cohen's NBA best bets and player props, Jonathan Davis' NHL picks, and weekend EPL and FA Cup picks. I think Paul Car has an FA, uh, FA Cup pick coming up as well.
12:28
Right now, you can sign up for our summer special for only $59 for full VSiN Pro access. That's until August the 1st. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
12:38
Skill Alexander and Wyatt Tomcheck in for the vacationing Kelly Billings. Kelly Billings caught a massive fish. I, I was- Did you see that? I was gonna me- mention that.
12:45
[laughs] He, uh, I don't know who, who else is in the photo, but Kelly's obviously got this massive fish and he's like, "I won." This broadcasting thing doesn't work out for him. Fisherman.
12:53
I wonder how long that took to reel in. That was a, that was a pretty big fish. I think Kelly had a little fight in him. Have you ever, have you ever done deep sea fishing? No, I have not. Would love to, though.
13:01
I feel- Would love to... I feel like I would get seasick. I've done the thing where you, you s- you stand in the water. What do you call that? Fly fishing? Yes, yes. Yeah. Yes.
13:08
Yeah, that's, that was, uh- I was like, stand in the water, you mean like, just with, like at the beach? I, I didn't get it. Oh. [laughs] I was like, I was like, "What are we doing here?"
13:14
You get- I Larry David-ed my way through the whole thing. I'm sure that wasn't annoying [laughs] at all. What are we doing? Oh, man.
13:21
By the way, if you want a good laugh after the show, you remember the f- uh, this last season of, uh, Curb when Larry's trying to talk to Siri? Uh-huh. Just re-watch that one. I did that with my roommate.
13:29
God, we, we were crying. See, that, see, the scene with Siri, though, was too, was too try-hard to me. Oh, no, I thought that- Like, that was th...
13:37
Uh, the people who loved that scene I think love the fact that, 'cause it's like s- it's like w- it's like Curb Your Enthusiasm 101.
13:45
[laughs] And I felt like everything else is more, much more natural and you don't see it coming. That, you kinda saw coming to me. Wasn't it? Yeah, it, it just felt at home.
13:52
'Cause l- how many times have you used Siri and it doesn't work? But yet, during the Super Bowl, when we kept talking about Nick Sirianni, this dang thing kept popping up. Yeah.
13:59
I was like, "The w- uh, the Eagles cannot make the Super Bowl ever again." My Siri just kept going off every time at work. By the way, speaking of the Eagles, man, they always do well.
14:08
31st pick, they trade with the Chiefs to go one up. Jahad Campbell, linebacker from Alabama. Howie Roseman always gets it right. I thought the Giants, by the way, Giants can't be sad.
14:18
Speaking of the NFC East, Abdul Carter, and then they trade up. Uh, they trade up into the first round with the Chargers to grab Jackson Dart, uh, from Ole Miss. Oh. So. Rams, right?
14:29
[ts] Uh, I think, no, I think- No, no, the Chargers took the running back from, uh, North Carolina.
14:34
I th- no, I think the, the, the Giants traded with the Chargers to grab Dart, and then Atlanta traded with the Rams to grab James Pierce, I believe. Now you're making me think. Well, was it the Texans?
14:44
Texans were a part of one of the trades, I think, with the- Oh, maybe. No, you're right. Yes. The Giants traded with the Texans. Yes, there we go. That's correct. Giants traded with the Texans to grab Jackson Dart.
14:52
You're absolutely right. Chargers grabbed Omarion Hampton a few picks earlier, uh, running back outta UNC at 22. So yeah, Giants, uh, with the 25th pick grabbed Dart.
15:00
So Dart and Carter, uh, Dart via trade with the Texans, good on them. Good on the Giants.
15:06
I mean, you know, you're not going anywhere this year, but that's, that's two good perhaps, I don't know what Dart, if Dart will ever play, if he will be a thing, but that's certainly a, a, a fine first round for them, it would appear on paper.
15:17
We get tweets at Beating the Book. Jamie Leiva, uh, talking about, uh, oh, I guess maybe Dave Ross talked about this and Jensen talked about this.
15:23
He says, "The gentleman from the DC area," he's talking about me, "had the Mets first to 10 and the Twinkies most wins by end of April. To be fair, the Twinkies were based on schedule. Have a fantastic day, gentlemen."
15:34
Yes, as we'll get to here momentarily, we'll show March, April, um, the real killer thing for me is I ended up betting Mets f- first to 10. They didn't get there.
15:43
I think they were at eight when the first team got to 10, and they are crushing the April onlys, and they are kind of in the driver's seat. I th- it, it's a four-team race.
15:53
I kinda think it's a two-team race, as we'll show here momentarily. Well, maybe we can show it now. Can we show it right now? Uh, yeah, we can show it right now. Um, 'cause right now you have the Mets.
16:00
The Mets at 18 and seven. So the Mets are 18 and seven. They have six games left. Four at Washington, two versus the Diamondbacks at home. Mets are 18 and seven. Six games left. Four at Washington, two versus Arizona.
16:16
San Diego and San Francisco both have 17 wins. San Diego's 17 and eight. The Giants are 17 and nine. One win behind the Mets. Remember, this is a dead heat at William Hill Caesars.
16:28
This is a tiebreaker when it comes to, uh, Circa, if you bet it there March, April. Um, and the tiebreaker is fewest losses, first tiebreaker. Second, uh, is, the second tiebreaker after fewest losses.
16:41
What is the second tiebreaker after fewest losses now? I forget already. It's- I don't know... it's fewest losses and then it's, oh, man, I forgot already.
16:47
Anyway, fewest losses is the, uh, is the first tiebreaker on that. And so the problem is, even though they're one game behind San Diego and San Francisco, one game behind the Mets for most wins March, April,
16:57
the Mets have six games left. The Giants and Padres only have five games left, and two of them are against each other.
17:04
So I actually, even though they're one game back, they are behind the eight ball Because, and again, San Diego's is, is, uh, three versus Tampa, two versus the Giants, all at home.
17:15
San Francisco is three versus Texas at home, then the two at Petco at San Diego.
17:21
The team that I think is the real challenge to the Mets, both from a tie perspective and maybe even to clip them, the Dodgers do have six games left like the Mets do.
17:30
The Dodgers are two wins behind the Mets for March, April. The Dodgers' remaining six games, though, are, ready for this, three versus Pittsburgh, three versus Miami, all at Chavez Ravine.
17:41
So y- so you almost- That's a gauntlet of a schedule... so you almost have to assume the Dodgers, I mean, Dodgers at worst are five and one there. I mean, they look like a six and O, but at worst are five and one.
17:50
I mean, it's baseball, anything could happen. But I guess what I'm saying is this feels like the Mets are the favorite for sure, but I think the Dodgers are the sneaky team that could, uh, still clip them at the end.
18:01
So anyway, that's March, April. Um, thanks for the, uh, thanks for the tweet, uh, Jamie, as well. Lance Schaefer, "Gil, my Bears take basically a big body wide receiver that plays tight end. Bowers was there last year.
18:13
How do they not take Ty Warren? Warren is so obviously going to be a star," and then he says, he said, oh, he says, "Ryan Poles just doesn't get it." Yeah, Ryan Poles may not, man.
18:24
Um- I will say as, as a, as a Green Bay Packer fan- What he's referring to, by the way- Yeah...
18:28
is that they went Colston Loveland, um, tight end from Michigan, as opposed to Ty Warren, tight end from Penn State, wears 44 as a tribute to John Riggins.
18:36
Matt Brown was the guy who came on here late on the show a couple days ago. He's like, "That's a bet. Colston Loveland, top tight end." It was like plus 475 or something like that. Yeah. So good on Matt. Uh, uh, yeah.
18:47
100% bias here, I'm a huge Michigan fan, watch a lot of, uh, the Wolverines games. I think Colston Loveland is the real deal.
18:53
I mean, he was putting up, Gil, some impressive stats, and he had quarterbacks who really struggled even just throwing five-yard outs. I think it's gonna be a real good pick for the Bears.
19:01
Although I will say I thought Tyler Warren was the best tight end. I think Colston Loveland was definitely, you know, 1B. I can't keep up with your teams. You're Michigan- No, this is always fun...
19:09
you're Michigan- Yes... you're Green Bay Packers- Mm-hmm... you're Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee Bucks, hopefully we win tonight, down, uh, 2-0. Ah, it's a little tough right now. And Atlanta Braves. Atlanta Braves.
19:18
Now, all of it's based on- All right... really my dad. My dad used to work for the Braves, so that's why it's all, uh, yeah, I'm, I'm a bi- big Braves fan. Family's in Wisconsin.
19:26
Dad went to Michigan, so I grew up watching those games. I just happened to pick the Bucks, you know, 'cause they're in Milwaukee, and then Golden Knights. All right. 'Cause they're in Vegas. And UNLV.
19:34
Golden Knights down 2-1, best of seven first round series. Yeah, it's not good in the playoffs for my teams here, Gil. Uh, teasers and parlays.
19:40
Shout out to Gil, Luke, Vegas Refund, and Drew Whale Capper for the hard work and content provided on the NFL draft. Everyone appreciates it. Hopefully you can all run it back next year on the pod. Thank you. Hope so.
19:50
Hope it's less of a flat Earth, uh, pod. And this is from Brian, Brian Schaefer, who, um, I think this is a sentiment that, that needs to be brought up. He s- he says, "Gil, I am done betting on the draft."
20:02
He said, "I had Warren to be the first tight end, saw he went to minus 1,000 yesterday and was all excited of the line move, then I get heartbroken yesterday with Loveland. This just makes us realize we know nothing."
20:14
We don't. We don't know a thing. We really don't on some of this stuff. And I hear you, man. Like the same thing with the Saints, uh, to pick a defensive line edge position player. I got it at seven to one.
20:26
It was plus 450 a couple days, few days before the draft.
20:30
It was the favorite going into yesterday as well, and they don't go defensive line, uh, or edge because the draft broke in a way where they just didn't feel like doing that. So, uh, you know, I hear you, Brian.
20:41
I, I think that is a valid sentiment. Um, now will we, as the draft approaches next year, will, you know, will we bow out of the draft?
20:49
No, not entirely, but I do think if y- I think the lesson, again, going back to the first segment is if you reduce it to a couple basic tenets, which is those positional plays are smart, and maybe I watch the movement the day of.
21:01
I, I got a question for you, and with this draft, obviously we only saw two quarterbacks get r- uh, taken in the first round. It wasn't really quarterback heavy.
21:09
Do you feel like you have a better idea of the draft if you see there may be four or five guys that can go in the first round of quarterback, or do you think it's easier when it's less like this?
21:18
Oh, you're relating it to quarterbacks specifically? Yeah, like you- I'm, I'm not sure if you can relate it to quarterbacks specifically. Um, probably if it was more quarterback heavy, though.
21:27
I mean, that's all just by percentage. It's a higher percentage of the first round, so maybe it's that much easier based on that. But I just think this entire thing was flat Earth right after the top.
21:35
Uh, Torch D, "Well, I read some fake news article that said the Broncos were thinking about trading up for Travis Hunter. I bet on the Broncos' first pick to be a cornerback at 20 to 1. That worked out." Good for you.
21:45
Broncos do go Jadyn Baron, cornerback from Texas, uh, with their first pick at number 20. Um, let's see, Chad Lee, "One simple rule to follow, deep sea fishing, take motion sickness meds right before venturing out.
21:56
Otherwise, you'll be super tired if taken morning of." By the way, I do have a baseball play, uh, today.
22:02
I have not talked about this in, in previous days because we've had some combination of ground ball pitcher, uh, and, you know, a fly ball pitcher named deGrom. So it's not, it was not quite as ovary.
22:13
The opportunities weren't in, uh, Sactown, in Sacramento, Bay Area, and Baghdad.
22:18
But today we do have such a situation, Wyatt, uh, and I'm betting first five over and full game over in Sacramento between the White Sox and the Athletics.
22:28
You are not required to watch this Major League Baseball game, but you can bet on it. Over five, first five, over nine for the game. Luis Severino going for the Athletics, Tyler Gilbert going for the White Sox.
22:40
Fly ball pitcher, fly ball pitcher. Let's go over. Both first five and full game, that's the baseball play of the day from moi. We will come back. Um, Paul Carr, soccer plays? That's on the other side.
22:53
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
Don't forget about the sharp plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros.
23:16
We invite you to check it out, sharpplays.com. It's Gil Alexander, Friday from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Uh, we get tweets at Betting The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback.
23:26
StringFellowHawk Our buddy, he's a Giants fan here. "That Giants trade was horrible," he says. "They could have got him or Sanders," talking about Dart or Sanders, "in the second round.
23:36
Now they got two less picks for offensive linemen, which they've needed for years. I hate them." [laughs] I love fan, fans who hate their teams. Oh, I was with you for 25 years. Trust me, I know the feeling.
23:48
Um, I generally think trades... I, I mean, again, I'll get back to the Travis Hunter trade. I think Jacksonville's stupid. Like, I just...
23:57
You trade a first round pick next year, not to mention, you know, in this year's draft other picks, but a first rounder to move up from five to two to grab Travis Hunter, who, again, like, is he gonna make you a Super Bowl champion?
24:11
I just, I just don't see the wisdom in it. Uh, and I'm being... That's an understatement. Jared Albert: "Yo, Gill, would like you and Fezz's opinion later during hour two.
24:20
24-year-old guy coming solo to Vegas for a few nights. Where should I stay, eat, and hang out?"
24:25
Well, Jared, the answer to that question, I'll ask Stevie later, but the answer to that question depends on, uh, a lot of things. One, what are you coming here to do?
24:32
Uh, the Cosmo would be one answer if you're trying to, you know, hang out and watch people and talk to people, if you know what I mean. Um, the Wynn would be the place if you're rolling with a lot of cash.
24:43
And if you're just here to bet sports, Circa would obviously be the, the place to go. By the way, the pool at Circa, not too bad for watching people, if you know what I mean.
24:50
Dan Groeschel: "It's been about 12 hours since the pick, and I'm already exhausted with Packers Twitter and the green and golden tweets." Yes, uh, they get the speedster Matthew Golden at 23. Green and golden, get it?
25:04
Banshees of Atlantic City: "Betting on a papal conclave?
25:07
It isn't hard enough to decipher the intentions of NBA awards voters, now I have to handicap the movements and inspirations [laughs] of the Holy Spirit when he continues to ignore all the advanced metrics?"
25:16
That's the thing about the Holy Spirit, doesn't care about the metrics. We'll see if Malik has a pick later. And D Jun s- uh, D Jen Southern Jet, it's so great hearing from fans of different teams and their takes.
25:26
Uh, he says, D Jen Southern Jen says, "Happy Fontenot finally didn't fudge it up for Falcons fans Friday, [laughs] Gill and Wyatt." Uh, that's the Fontenot finally didn't fudge it up for Falcons fans Friday.
25:38
"So glad the Falcons actually drafted someone that the fans can actually get behind," and is referring to a couple picks maybe. Uh, Atlanta
25:46
goes, uh, early in the 15th pick, they go with Jalen Walker, the, uh, linebacker from Georgia. Uh, Jalen Walker, uh, at 15, and then later they traded, they traded back into the first round.
25:56
They traded with the Rams and took James Pierce, uh, the edge rusher out of Tennessee. By the way, you see James Pierce? Didn't he have a WNBA girlfriend, uh, in that shot? Did you catch that?
26:06
Is it Raekia Jackson, is her name? Eh, little, uh, little sort of thrown in nugget during the draft yesterday. That and Jaxson Dart's mom. Swole. Paul Carr is swole, everybody.
26:17
He talks soccer with us every week, uh, maybe multiple times a week. You can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R.
26:23
Part of, uh, True Media Networks, which is advanced analytics, uh, which, uh, they have permeated throughout major sports in North America.
26:31
Also the host of the Expected Value podcast and part of the Ringer Soccer Betting podcast. He joins us now from his, uh, home in Topeka, Kansas. How you doing, Paul? I'm good.
26:41
My, my favorite part of draft night is the war rooms and trying to see if there's people I know in there. 'Cause we work with NFL and a lot of the- [laughs]...
26:49
analytics staffs in different areas, but it's just, just trying to find the guy or the girl in the background like, "Oh, yeah, we were in a meeting with her or him," or things like that.
26:57
My- So I spotted a few of them last night... I, I think I have a couple. One is the group congratulations, right? Mm-hmm.
27:04
Uh, that everybody sort of like you see right after they make their kick, right after they make their pick, pardon me. Yeah.
27:09
But before it's announced to us, the audience, everybody just glad-handing each other, just shaking hands, dapping it up like they solved, you know, g- uh, global cancer, right? Right, right.
27:20
Uh, Wa- Washington, for instance, you know, I'm waiting, I'm a Washington fan. I'm waiting for their pick. They go with Josh Connerly, uh, tackle from Oregon. I couldn't tell you anything about him.
27:29
And in Adam Peters, the GM, we trust. But the way that they were [laughs] congratulating themselves- Yeah... you, you'd thought that, uh, you know, Darrell Green dropped to t- 29 again, uh, in terms of Redskins history.
27:40
Yep. So it was just so funny to watch that. And then my second thing is my imitation of every GM tonight after their second round pick. Uh, here's my imitation of every GM after their second round pick tonight. Okay.
27:49
"Oh, my God, we couldn't believe he was still available." [laughs] Right. Everyone. "We, this guy was a first rounder on our board, Gill." That's right. "Oh, my God, I can't believe he fell into our lap."
27:59
Um, you, by the way, so I mentioned, uh, Michael Montesano came on here yesterday. Uh, he nailed, uh, cornerback to the Bills. I believe it was five to one. Don't hold me to that.
28:08
Also, uh, or maybe that was wide receiver to the Packers was five to one, but he also hit Buffalo going to cornerback. I mentioned Matt Brown had, uh, t- first tight end to go, Colston Loveland, plus 475.
28:21
You, uh, you made a bet based on this show some time ago. Yeah, this was in December. Uh, Cam Ward to go number one overall at, at plus 300. I can't remember the guest you had on talking about it.
28:32
And, and I don't watch a lot of college football, so I didn't have a, like, preconceived notion of anything.
28:37
But it was basically, the take was basically, like, Cam Ward is by far the best prospect, and at that point, it looked like the Titans or, I forget who else was in the mix, but somebody who needed a quarterback was gonna be number one, and Ward seemed like the clear number one guy.
28:51
So I was like, "All right. That, that's enough for me. Let's go." It might've been Montesano, and three to one wasn't even the best. Like, we forget there was a whole period- Right...
28:58
of this, you know, this year where Ward was not, uh, fait accompli to go to, uh, Tennessee at number one. Yeah. All right. To global football, if you will. All right. Uh, let's just talk about the Prem.
29:08
Liverpool is on the cusp of clinching this? Yep. They get a point this weekend against Tottenham, and it's all over. So a win or a draw.
29:14
I mean, it's been over more or less for several months, but officially they would clinch with a win or a draw against Tottenham this weekend. All right. And, uh, how did we do last week? Last week we went two and one.
29:25
We got a Newcastle loss. This wasn't a pick, but Newcastle loss d- doesn't help our top four play, but they're still even money to be top four, and Brentford got a nice win.
29:34
Uh, so they're now Uh, odds on favorite to finish top half, which we got at plus 400 before the season. But two and one overall on the picks last week. Nice. Moving the chains. All right. We have a three- Yep...
29:42
pack as always from you, but we should point out that two are- Mm-hmm... in the Premier League. One is an FA- Right... Cup semifinal pick.
29:49
Could you explain to the person, we do this all the time when an FA Cup, uh- Yeah... pick comes up randomly annually.
29:55
Could you explain to folks where does the FA Cup rank in the hierarchy of international soccer tournaments? Yeah.
30:02
So the FA Cup is a domestic tournament in England, and it has clubs from the Premier League all the way down to, you know, Gil's YMCA team or something. Correct.
30:11
There's 700 clubs that enter this tournament, and the Premier League teams come later in the competition, et cetera, and they almost always win. But it's the oldest domestic competition in the world.
30:21
It started in 18, I forget, '76 or something like that.
30:25
So very prestigious in England, and every country has some version of a tournament like this, where it's kind of like playing your conference tournament in college basketball, but playing it, like, stretched over the course of a season instead of all in one weekend.
30:36
Okay. See, I even got that wrong. I called it an international tournament. It's a domestic tournament in England. Right. Uh, shall we start with that one, FA Cup semifinal pick? Sure. Yeah. This one is on Sunday.
30:45
This is a semifinal, so this is a knockout match, so this is a 90-minute bet. Uh, under two and a half in Nottingham Forest and Manchester City.
30:53
This game is at Wembley, and Forest is a, you know, they wanna win this game one-nil. Like, they want nothing more than that. They beat City one-nil earlier this season. Uh, and that's what they're gonna try to do.
31:03
City's attack has gotten better in some ways.
31:06
The team has gotten better the last few months, but Erling Haaland is out with an injury, so this is not a, the high-powered City that we're used to seeing the last few years. Forest is gonna keep it tight.
31:15
It's a knockout match, you know, so if it goes to extra time at 1-1, you win your bet regardless of what happens in extra time.
31:22
So I just think this is a classic Forest type of game, knockout, cagey type of match in the semifinals, so simple under two and a half at minus 105. Cagey type of match. Nottingham Forest, Man City. Cagey.
31:34
At Wembley, under two and a half goals. That is on Sunday. To the Premier League. Yep. You have two plays tomorrow. What do you got? Yep. Got another under here, so more rooting against human achievement.
31:45
Uh, Chelsea-Everton, under two and a half. I got this at minus 110. I saw some minus 105s, maybe even monies out there this morning. Uh, this game's Saturday. Everton has been an under machine lately.
31:56
Seven straight games under two and a half goals. This is the David Moyes effect, their old manager who's back. Uh, we hit this one last week against Manchester City with ease.
32:04
And Chelsea, you know, they're fighting for a top four spot, but their offense has been pretty anemic lately, just six goals in their last six games, and two of those were against Ipswich, so those barely count.
32:13
And so you have a team that doesn't score a lot lately against a team that's not super interested in goals at either end in Everton. Pretty straightforward here, too. Under two and a half. I got it at minus 110.
32:23
You might be able to find better out there right now. All right. And then you have, uh, one of our favorites, the win to nil bet. We should point out in this day and age, this is not win to NIL.
32:31
That you don't, you don't get an- Right. [laughs]... NIL deal if you win this. Right. Yeah. This is win to nil. What do you have here? That's a very different thing. Yes. Yep. Y- yeah, win to nil.
32:39
Uh, some books have this pre-made. Some books you parlay a win with both teams to score no, so there's a couple different ways to get there, uh, depending on how your book, uh, lists the options.
32:49
So I have Newcastle win to nil against Ipswich Town at plus 105. This is Saturday. Uh, Ipswich Town is on the verge of being relegated.
32:58
Newcastle is fighting for a top four, or really top five spot now, and a Champions League berth. Five games against newly promoted teams this year, Newcastle has won them all and allowed a total of one goal.
33:08
And you throw out one game where they got an early red card, and they've only given up a total of two expected goals. They run a little bit hot, but not terribly.
33:15
They've just dominated these newly promoted teams on the whole, and Ipswich is very much that, a bottom three in just about every offensive and defensive category this year, which is why they're gonna go back down.
33:25
So Newcastle to coast at home, win to nil, plus 105. All right. Chelsea-Everton under two and a half goals tomorrow in the Premier League.
33:31
Newcastle win to nil against Ipswich Town, also tomorrow, and then the FA Cup semifinal on Sunday. Nottingham Forest and Man City under two and a half goals on Sunday. Paul, enjoy the weekend. Good luck with the bets.
33:44
Thank you. Have a good one. Paul Carr, you too. Paul Carr, everybody. @PaulCarr on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Jason Weingarten, all his thoughts and bets on the other side.
33:53
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
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35:04
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the feedback. JC, @JC562076, "Did your viewer say 23 and solo trip to Vegas? My goodness, us married millennials dream, am I right?" I believe he said 24
35:19
and single on his way solo trip to Vegas, but your sentiment remains correct. [laughs] It's pretty amazing.
35:24
JasonH11, "I hope Kelly really caught that fish and it wasn't one of those where the guide hooks it and Kelly just reels it in." Kelly says it was all him For the record, Trip Tepper.
35:34
Trip, I think you're right about this. He said, "The trades by the Jags and the Falcons respectively were bonkers. Atlanta also gifted the Rams a 2026 first round pick. Browns and Rams both fleeced their trade partners.
35:45
GM Terry Fontenot commits elder abuse [laughs] on Arthur Blank two years in a row on draft night." Uh, yeah, I've been going off about the, uh, the Browns and the Jaguars.
35:53
I don't know if I meant going off, but I just, I, I do not see the wisdom in trading your first round pick. First... I mean, picks in general, I don't think some teams get how valuable they are, but firsts, my goodness.
36:07
Uh, for Travis Hunter and then Atlanta doing it, I, I just don't, I don't get it. Um, you've gotta be right on the cusp of winning a Super Bowl to do something like that, to me.
36:18
Scott, New York Mess 16, "May have to put an R rating on, uh, Numbers Game second hour as Chris Felica was potty mouth on his podcast and Gil drops an F-bomb on the, uh, Will Hill podcast.
36:27
Get the dump button ready, 'cause who knows what Fezzik may do." Yeah, I'm, I'm pretty good at car- compartmentalizing. Uh, but we'll see with the guests. You can never tell with those guys.
36:37
Joe C714, "Wasn't the Rams moving their pick to the Falcons this year for the 2026 first the best move besides the Browns? What's the over-under for Falcons wins next year? Love it."
36:47
Uh, so he's, he's with that sentiment, uh, about, uh, trading firsts not being a great thing. Uh, Dgen Southern Gent, uh, already said that one.
36:56
Uh, this is 3JackH3131, "Gil, it's been a long week and I'm thankful for it being Friday, but can you explain, if you know what I mean, in more detail? It felt like the second half of the draft made more sense.
37:05
Maybe it's because those teams win." Um, I think there is some wisdom in that, that those teams do win, and there's a reason why they win. I can't remember what I said if you know what I mean, uh, about, though.
37:17
I must say that. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, comes to us from under a cloud of smoke, @spreadapedia is his Twitter handle, and he comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. It's Jason Weingarten, everybody.
37:26
How you doing, Jason? Good morning. It's, uh... Doing pretty good. You know, had the draft last night, got to watch the, uh, the Flipper game, and now we're gonna do the draft again. Got some, some baseball today.
37:38
It should be a good day. Can you, uh, or am I allowed to say this, or are you gonna be mad at me for saying what the, the exchange that just happened before we got on air? Am I allowed to talk about that real briefly?
37:45
'Cause I thought it was funny. Go for it. I, uh, Jason is engaged to his lovely bride, bride to be, and, uh, I asked Jason, I go, "Is there a date?" And Jason, you said what? May 18th.
37:57
And then what did you quickly say right after that? Uh, apparently I was wrong and it's May 31st. [laughs] She, off camera, she's like, "May 31st." [laughs] Jason, Jason is- Of course... Jason is off to a flying start.
38:11
Um, okay. Let's, let's start with the draft before we get to your baseball plays. You've been tweeting about Shedeur dropping here, and Shedeur is available tonight.
38:19
Uh, you think that he w- I mean, Cleveland's got the first pick tonight, they've got the 33rd overall, they got the 36th. So that's first and fourth in the second round.
38:28
And then New Orleans has the 40th pick, which is the eighth pick in the second round. So w- within eight picks, you have the Browns and the Saints with three picks.
38:36
You th- you might think they would wanna draft a quarterback. Do you think they do? One of them. Uh, I, I don't really see anything that's changed overnight that makes me think that you need to draft him here.
38:49
If you didn't wanna draft him at 23 or 32, or move up to get him, I don't necessarily think you need to draft him at, at 30 or 30, you know, or 30, 33 or 34.
39:00
Um, honestly, I'm not even sure he's gonna be a second round pick. I think he could drop to the third.
39:04
Uh, you know, the narrative around him was all narrative that I think ESPN did a massive disservice to him last night continuing to talk about him, you know, when Cam Ward was being selected.
39:15
I thought the, the draft coverage by ESPN last night was, was, you know, horrible. Um, you know- You're, what... Can I stop you there? You're absolutely right about that. That was really weird.
39:25
Like, Cam Ward is about to be drafted or wa- or was just drafted, and they're still going on about Shedeur. I thought that was really a disservice to Cam, too, for sure.
39:34
I said, I said this morning on Twitter, and, and I said it in all seriousness, but Mel Kiper should be pulled off the air today.
39:41
I mean, in no, in no world should he have been allowed by the production to go on the draft and just continue to talk about Shedeur Sanders when it was clear that not only was he not gonna be drafted, but his analysis was completely wrong.
39:55
I mean, he embarrassed himself on the air last night. They're talking about putting him in the Hall of Fame as a contributor. I think last night should clearly end that conversation. Um,
40:06
you know, I'm, I'm- The, y- yeah... It, it calls up, it calls up another thing about the broadcast, too.
40:11
This came up, uh, Will and I were talking about this on his podcast yesterday, which is we've also gotten to a era, this is a little different than what we were just talking about, but we've also gotten, and 'cause you brought up Kiper.
40:21
You remember the, the famous footage of him saying the Colts, the In- the, at, the, you know, the Indianapolis Colts don't understand the draft, and then Bill Polian came on and went after Kiper.
40:30
ESPN, they don't go after, they don't say much negative anymore about players.
40:35
It's become way too vanilla of a broadcast as well, where nothing that controversial is said 'cause they're all s- kinda scared about any backlash, or maybe they're too far in bed with the NFL now with their TV contracts.
40:48
So that's part of the broadcast, too, that I, that I sort of miss, um, a lot about.
40:53
But, but the Shedeur thing's interesting, and again, I, I'll, I'll say it again, I think a lot of the hate towards Shedeur is drift hate on people who don't like Deion.
41:01
I did think that the, the NFL assistant coach who, who really went after him but was anonymous, that that's gutless, right?
41:10
You should, you should think- I thought that was, I thought that was unprofessional, and I was surprised that the NFL allowed that to be published on one of their own, you know, their own site, essentially.
41:18
Um- To- totally agree. And, but I will say this, right? But on the other hand, and Shedeur might be a nice kid, on the other hand, um, people don't like flashiness if you haven't done anything.
41:30
And people might perceive him to be that way, right? He doesn't do himself any favors either.
41:35
I think both things are true The NFL doesn't care that he's Deion Sanders' son, and I think it actually works against him significantly, especially with Deion being a prominent coach.
41:45
If you're an NFL coach and you're on the hot seat, the last thing you want is Shedeur Sanders in your quarterback room having to answer questions every week about Deion wanting your job, or Deion getting questions about his son every week at his Colorado press conferences.
41:57
It's, it's a disaster of a situation. Deion did his son no favors the last couple years, kind of, you know, putting all this focus around him and doing all the stuff he did. Uh, the NFL didn't buy it.
42:08
When it came time for, you know, everyone to, to ante up at the table, the NFL said, "No, we're not interested." Yes. He's gonna have to wait, and he might keep waiting.
42:17
I, I'm not sure he goes in the top half of the second round. Hmm. Um, he will get drafted. He will get drafted. He will have an NFL career. He will get an opportunity, but I'm not sure it's gonna be early today.
42:29
I'm not sure when it's gonna be. Um, and it's just the writing's been on the wall. It's been on the wall for months. It's been on the wall since, since him and his camp said he's not going to attend the draft.
42:38
And everybody who's been hyping this and talking about it, and ESPN has done just, just an incredible disservice to Shedeur, you know, putting him in this situation to begin with. He's probably been getting bad advice.
42:51
Um, there's so much around the draft. I mean, we only have a couple minutes, but, uh, Travis Hunter mentioned last night that he was looking at Zillows in Jacksonville on Wednesday night. Yeah. So- Yeah...
43:02
this whole narrative around the trade, you know, happened. I mean, it seems like they had a trade, you know, at least in principle, a day before.
43:09
So, um, so much of this narrative and, and stuff surrounding the draft is, is just, there's no truth to it at this point.
43:16
Um- Well, you, you are correct that the proof is in the pudding, and no one thought well enough of, of Shedeur to, to go first round.
43:22
And, and yeah, I mean, the Travis Hunter trade stuff and looking at Zillow in Jacksonville's a little bit eyebrow-raising as well.
43:28
By the way, Shedeur minus 350 to go to the Browns, uh, today at DraftKings, plus 350 to go to the Raiders, six to one to go to the New Orleans Saints. Everybody else, 12 to one or longer. Real quick, baseball.
43:42
Skeens versus Yamamoto. I know you've got a opinion on that tonight. Yeah, it's gonna be a good game. Like I said last week, with, uh, Yamamoto was playing against Strom and the Rangers.
43:51
I'll be waiting for the first inning price to tick higher today, and then I'll bet the best first inning price I can get. Total's currently seven, so you're gonna get a very nice number there.
44:01
Uh, Yamamoto's within a dollar of Skeens for the Cy Young favorite, so you have the two Cy Young favorites going against each other tonight. Should be a great game. I'm looking forward to watching that.
44:11
I got Chris Sale and the Braves minus 124, and, uh, Abbott and the Reds minus 114 versus the Rockies. Any time you can play a minus 114 versus the Rockies this season, you're probably gonna have to do it.
44:23
Um, you know, go, uh, go Dodgers, I guess. Go Do- Are you making a play on the Dodgers, though, or no? No, I'm thinking about going to the game, though, tonight. Should be a fun game. Um- Okay...
44:35
that's gonna be the, two, chance to see two Cy Young pitchers. It's gonna be, be a game worth watching. Absolutely, but we do have the two picks from Jason. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it, man.
44:45
Jason Weingarten, everybody. Coming back with Falica and Fezzik next.
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