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Apr 26, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 26, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 26, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlan. Sup?
0:20
Live from Bar Canada, the D, downtown Las Vegas, on the morning after the first round of the National Football League draft. Ho, ho, oh boy.
0:30
Um, before we get into all of that, let me just say, stat show, Tim Murray, his thoughts on that. Paul Carr, Premier League. Chris Felica will join us. Jason Weingarten. Dan Bespers, best audio in the biz on the NBA.
0:43
We'll get to all of it. Guardians update. We'll do it all heading into the last four games. But we got to start with the absolute madness of last night, and the fact that... Le- let me just say this.
0:54
We know people who did great in the draft. We know people who got destroyed in the draft. Mm-hmm. Kelly, you and me kind of it was... It ended up being a nothing burger.
1:03
We just kind of [laughs] Well, let me, let me put it this way. If, if yesterday on the show if you told me I would, I would squeak out a few bucks, I'd be like, "Give it to me right now."
1:11
Remember I asked p- I asked some guests, I was like, "Do you take a $1,000 winner loss right now and move on?" And we got different answers for that. That's basically negligible loss on- Right... on, for, for me.
1:20
It's like a, like a rounding error. It... Let's go through this one by one, and we'll obviously crescendo to the eighth pick in the draft, because that is where this went haywire. Caleb Williams goes to the Bears.
1:32
He goes into a great situation, uh, because they would draft, of course, Rome Odunze at nine later. So you have a wide receiver room, you always love the room- [laughs]...
1:42
with not only Odunze, but of course Keenan Allen, people forget- Yeah... DJ Moore. Um, t- it's just a great situation for a guy getting picked number one. That doesn't typically work out that way.
1:54
You typically go to a really bad team. Not the case here with the Bears. We, we never really talked about it on the show either, but, like, did you catch all the stories about them, like, working out together?
2:03
Like, I thought it was a, it was kind of [laughs] you know, get- getting ahead of yourself a bit. Like, Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams working out- Yeah... at, like, Bears facilities and stuff over the past few weeks.
2:13
Caleb Williams. My big takeaway from Caleb Williams last night was how he pr- he projected confidence. Like, that guy does not lack confidence whatsoever. Mm-hmm. He's like, "I've been here before."
2:22
Then Washington, and this is, this was, it was nice to hit- Yes... a, uh, nothing but net elbow jumper to start off our draft betting.
2:28
Jayden Daniels goes to the DC skins, and he does it, um, in a way that I, I don't think Washington ever wavered, quite frankly. And a week ago, I made my case as to why I never thought they wavered on that.
2:38
Uh, ended up getting that at a very low price when the market demanded that I actually bet it in a market that I had no intention of betting. Then it... The chalkity chalk continued. There were no trades at the top.
2:49
Drake May went to New England at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. went to Arizona at four.
2:56
And then at five, Kelly, and this is where I thought, "Oh, this is gonna be one of these epic drafts that I was so used to having for like three or four consecutive years."
3:05
We used to bet the draft on a numbers game before any other sh- Mm... well, I, and I think before any other show on the network did. I really do. Like, that'll get lost in history.
3:12
But we used to crush this draft back in the day, um, years in a row. But Joe Alt goes to, to the Chargers at five, plus 450, and that was the one where I just stuck to my guns about. Jim Harbaugh said what he wants.
3:26
He said he wanted to start the franchise with a cornerstone offensive lineman, a 10-year guy. Boom, there it is. Joe Alt, plus 450, and I'm like, "Oh [laughs] this is gonna be a great draft."
3:37
[laughs] The other flyer was the intel on Rome Odunze going six to the Giants. That did not happen. They go Malik Nabers at six. Then the Titans, who coveted an offensive lineman, they end up going with the
3:51
second-best offensive lineman by most people's draft boards, but really one, two. They go JC Latham from Alabama, because if he couldn't get Alt, they would go Latham. Yeah.
3:58
And that one, it should be noted before we get to number eight, remember that a lot of people, a lot of buzz on the Titans going wide out. Mm-hmm.
4:06
And remember my story when I made my first bets at stations where I was like, "Wow, it's seven to one," and there's all this buzz, and I was like, "Wow, should I bet?"
4:12
And then I, then I stopped myself and I'm like, "This is the last position they need." They have DeAndre Hopkins. Uh, they have- No, that was one of the we- uh, Ca- they got Calvin Ridley. It is- Right? Yeah...
4:22
Calvin Ridley, Treylon Burks, uh, Westbrook Akina. They... That was one of the weirdest- Yes... rumors of the entire draft. I agree. Completely agree. And they end up going offensive lineman.
4:32
I, I mean, and before we even get to the big one here, I, I mean this was... Where were all the trades, right? Like, we're sitting there like- Where were all the trades?...
4:38
wait, all we're talking about for the past two weeks is all these trades that are gonna blow up these top s- you know, at least three through five. They were surely gonna come, and none of them, none of them came. Yeah.
4:48
By the way, at vsin.com, Adam Burke does a wonderful job. What happened in the first round [laughs] very simple title, what happened in the first round- [laughs]... of the NFL draft.
4:56
And he notes that by the end, there were six trades by the end of the draft, by the end of the first round of the draft, but not at the top. And then
5:06
I have no way of proving that this draft would have gone wildly different had this not happened. I mean, surely Dallas Turner's getting drafted here now, right, Gil? Everything's going to script. [laughs] Let's...
5:17
Our night's about to get even better. This pick forgi- We'll get to the football in a moment, but this pick destroyed three of my picks in one fell swoop. [laughs] It was Dallas Turner.
5:29
It was under four and a half quarterbacks. When you knew this happened- Yeah... that was toast. I think there was another under I had on Odunze, something like that. Michael Penix Jr.
5:38
to the Atlanta Falcons, the picked, uh, the pick that shook up the entire 2024 first round of the NFL draft. What the what?
5:49
The Falcons, who had just committed $100 million guaranteed to Kirk Cousins, two of which, uh, two of those years guaranteed, go with Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington. And the world was just...
6:04
When the, when it first, when the buzz first, when Schefter got on screen and said, "They are thinking about a quarterback," and specifically Penix, everyone's mouth just dropped. Like, what?
6:15
Now- What are you talking about, Adam? We're like, "What i- what is going on?"
6:18
Uh, Cousins' agent, Mike McCartney, told Pete Thamel from ESPN, he said the Falcons only notified the quarterback, Cousins that is, that they'd pick Penix while the team was on the clock.
6:30
McCartney said there's frustration and confusion coming from Cousins' camp because Atlanta did not use its first-round pick to make the team better in 2024. Here's the quote, "Yes, it was a big surprise.
6:39
We had no idea this was coming. The truth is the whole league had no idea this was coming. We got no heads-up. Kirk got a call from the Falcons when they were on the clock. That was the first we heard it.
6:48
Never came up in any conversation." Now, I wanna be clear about this. By the way, see this little piece of paper right here? This is when I'm, is making bets at stations.
6:56
You know, they do that thing where they print it out and they're like, "Hey, do you wanna keep this?" Right. And I was like, "N- uh, oh, yeah, let me keep it just in case." Yeah. This is what I did.
7:03
So what was this, two weeks ago? Less than two weeks ago? Position of Falcons first selection in 2024 draft, Kelly, quarterback, 100 to 1. [exhales] Right here.
7:15
I, I couldn't believe, I couldn't believe we even had the t- 100 to 1. I w- That's crazy. I can't believe DraftKings even had Falcons listed this short. Yeah, I can't believe it either. I mean, why, why?
7:26
Why would you have them? [laughs] So let, let me be clear about this now. Now, could Michael Penix end up being a good NFL quarterback and a really good NFL quarterback or even a great NFL quarterback? Yes.
7:37
Let's hold two thoughts in our heads at the same time. So the, he might. None of us are, none of us are that savvy enough to know what he will end up being.
7:46
Remember, uh, I was the guy, I think I was one of the lone voices who, I was like, "Jordan Love might actually end up being good 'cause he's holding a clipboard for all these years."
7:54
But it didn't make the Jordan Love pick good either, even though the f- the, the way that it worked out for the Packers was that Aaron Rodgers ended up having two really good years right after they picked Jordan Love.
8:07
That's not the point. The point is, is that, and I... Lean in for this, Kelly. The object of the NFL, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, is to win a Super Bowl.
8:17
So when you have Aaron Rodgers moving in age, up in age, right? The idea was you should probably improve the team, either offensively or defensively, to advance your, your cause towards that goal.
8:30
Instead, what- I mean, he had plenty of wide receivers. Come on... instead, what they effective- [laughs] what they effectively did was draft a guy who wasn't gonna get on the field, essentially.
8:40
The Falcons are doing the same thing with Kirk Cousins. Imagine. Imagine if, if, if yesterday the Jets had drafted a quarterback. Imagine, right?
8:53
We would be losing our minds even more than this, but the truth is this is the same thing. Right, right, I, yeah. It's the exact same thing. I was gonna say, yeah, yeah.
8:59
I mean, you just sunk all this money into, i- i- into Kirk Cousins, and at the age that he's at. If you were going to do this, you should have never signed Kirk Cousins. Never. So, so- Never...
9:13
what's funny about it, this is the part I couldn't get over right away, is none of this w- We love Michael Penix Jr. Love, love is our- You and I ha- you and I- Love him...
9:20
yeah, you and I have talked about this for months- Yes... how much we love the guy. W- what both the Falcons and Vikings did,
9:29
w- if you, if I just did a time machine back to a few months ago, I'd be like, "Oh, well this makes perfect sense. Surely J.J.
9:34
McCarthy is gonna [laughs] sit there and back up, back up Kirk Cousins for a year or two, and this is a great transition plan in Minnesota."
9:41
But now when you've got a 24-year-old quarter- rookie quarterback in Atlanta that you're drafting to sit behind him. After that, the draft just sort of became...
9:51
I have, ep- When that happened and it killed three of my bets in one shot, I was like, "Oh, all I have left is Jacksonville to draft a corner- [laughs]...
9:59
for, like, whether I'm gonna win or lose [laughs] this draft in the end." Would you, would you like to hear the Falcons GM explanation, uh, on, on the pick? Please. If we, if we have that one ready, yeah. Absolutely.
10:08
Let's hear. Fire it up, man.
10:10
That if you believe in a quarterback, you have to take him, and if he sits for four or five years, that's, that's, that's a great problem to have because, uh, because we're, we're doing so well at that position.
10:20
So it's, it's just as, as simple as if y- if you see a guy that you believe in at that position, you have to take him. That's Terry Fontenot, by the way, Atlanta Falcons GM. Gotta take him. No, you don't.
10:34
No, you do- I don't... No, you don't. Kirk C- I mean, if you're Kirk Cousins sitting at home- I- This is like, this is like RG III, 2012, right? Skins draft him second pick of the draft.
10:48
Fourth round, they're like, "And we're gonna take this Kirk Cousins guy to Michigan State, too." And RG III's probably like, "What?" Now this is Kirk Cousins. This is w- this is, that's a good comp. This is worse. Right.
10:58
This is worse. That... Oh, this is way worse. Yeah. I'm just saying from a, from a coming back to Kirk Cousins kind of perspective, right? Cousins had to be sitting at home like, "Are y- W- We didn't, we didn't improve.
11:10
I thought we were trying to win a Super... What are we doing? What are you doing? You didn't help it, us." By the way- I can't imagine-... offensively, defensively, I mean, neither. Right.
11:17
I, I can't imagine thinking the call was serious. Whenever they got the call, I would've been like, [laughs] "Stop joking. Stop. Like, it's drafted. This is a big deal. Stop joking around. Stop joking around."
11:24
You can quibble, like I, I would've... I thought the Jets were gonna draft Brock Bowers to improve, you know, to go for it. They ended up going offensive tackle. That's a fair debate- Sure...
11:32
but you're still improving your team. This was just off the charts bizarro. It sent the draft into drunkenness.
11:40
Uh, we'll get to some other things, including the R- including the Raiders pick and that odd trade at the end with the Chiefs and the Bills. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:48
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Start your morning with a daily dose of witty strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with the free VSiN daily newsletter.
12:05
In today's newsletter- Lots of draft recap, Michael Lombardi's thoughts on the Falcons big surprise, that and much more Picking up with the draft.
12:14
By the way, we bur- we also buried a headline with the Falcons too, of course. They passed on Lamar Jackson, of course, right? To start this whole arc, if you will- [laughs]... of quarterbacks. Right. Yeah.
12:23
Remember, not only passing on him, but remember that day where we walked in here and all these NFL teams went out of their way to tweet that they weren't interested in Lamar Jackson? Mm-hmm.
12:32
Falcons, I believe, are first among them. We get tweets at Betting The Book. "Trust the glove. Today, no support for you and your Guardians. My buddy has a kid who, uh, pitches for the Braves, so I'm committed."
12:42
Well, okay. That's fair. David Newell- That's a fair reason. Yeah. [laughs] Fair reason for you to root against. That's okay. "With Cleveland having a w-..."
12:48
Okay, we'll get to this, uh, Guardians thing coming up, I promise you. I have scenarios coming up as well. Trust me, you won't go to ESPN.com and see end of April scenarios.
12:57
[laughs] Those are exclusive right here on a Numbers Game at VSiN. Uh, David Newell- [laughs]...
13:03
he says, "With Cleveland holding a one-game lead for best record through April, but a significant underdog to the Braves for the upcoming series, do you think a partial hedge is in order?
13:11
Bet the Braves to win the weekend series?" Question mark. "Of course, a 16-win team could leapfrog everyone." I got it all covered, David. It's coming up. Las Vegas 514, he's a Skins fan.
13:20
He goes, "Yo, you and I, my friend, should be excited for our team's future. Long time coming. Now can we upgrade the Washington war room? I mean, really, LOL." Who are the...
13:28
By the way, the Jacksonville Jaguars had the weirdest looking [laughs] war room. I was like, "Oh, maybe upgrade that thing." Uh, I th- I thought the, uh, the Bears one was funny.
13:38
It looked like the, uh, like, you know, Star Trek Enterprise up there or something like that. I, I would like to... The, the funniest thing is every war room congratulating each other- Oh, oh...
13:50
after they make their pick. Especially when you're the Chicago Bears and you know you're drafting Caleb Williams for how many months now? Why did they use six minutes of the clock? [laughs] Why?
13:58
[laughs] Everybody's shaking. "Hey, great work." Oh, great job. "Great work. Hey, Bob, great job over there. Great work." [laughs] When Dallas made their pick, Guyton goes, "Great work, everybody."
14:07
By the way, here's my imitation of every GM after, uh, today's second round pick. You ready for this? My imitation of every GM after today's second round pick. "We couldn't believe he was still on the board."
14:17
[laughs] That's my imitation. Um- Yeah, you're gonna hear that a few times. Yep. Yeah. Uh, Nicholas Griggs, "Maybe have O's on next year to give out his picks. Unbelievable."
14:25
Apparently, O's Pearlman- I did not, I did not catch this... our old buddy who's been on this show, and if you all remember, somehow got damn Thunder Marley out of my brain- Couldn't get anything out of me...
14:35
which still spooks me out. Steel trap. Steel trap. Kelly Billy couldn't c- couldn't crack that cranium. Apparently, he picked the top 13 picks in the draft in a row. That was the...
14:46
By the way, the headline of this draft for non-bettors was, not only did we not have a defensive player picked in the top 10 for the first time ever, but the first 14 picks in the draft were all offensive players.
15:00
There's never been a... Forget the top of the draft. There's never been a run of 14 players from one side of the ball ever in a row, at any point in any draft, let alone the top 14. That was historic yesterday. Yeah.
15:12
That was nutty. Um, I gotta see that O's thing. Dan Peljet, uh, hap- oh, he's got a parlay he wants me to talk about. Bruce Dobingen naming the Joe Allpick, alter i- alter reality. I like that.
15:24
Daytime Degenerate, "Now the Falcons may lose a draft pick for tampering with Cousins also." Well, that was a theory that my buddy was talking about.
15:29
He was like, "I think they pick Penix 'cause they're gonna lose draft picks." I'm like, "That still doesn't justify it."
15:35
Um, Trip Tepper, "Falcons front office should be charged with elder abuse for doing this to Arthur Blank. Passed on Lamar, passed on Belichick, gave Cousins 90 million guaranteed, and a no trade clause.
15:46
Drafted a 24-year-old quarterback at number eight when you're in win now mode." Well, cl- clearly Lamar Jackson just wasn't old enough. That's the issue, right? Like, they like a nice- [laughs] They do...
15:55
Atlanta's plan for winning is you gotta be at least 30 years old, you know? You wanna be seasoned. Seasoned, yes. Well seasoned in the NFL.
16:02
Hoops by Hoots, "Next up on a Numbers Game, Wolf Blitzer with a CNN interactive map, but it's end of April win-loss MLB scenarios." [laughs] Totally. It's coming, I promise you. Uh, okay, back to the draft.
16:13
So Odunze goes nine to the Bears. Then we had our first trade. Uh, Jets traded out of 10. Minnesota was at 11. Obviously, they coveted J.J. McCarthy, and, uh, they were like, "Let's not take any more chances.
16:25
Let's grab him at 10." Wh- which is fine. Which is fine. Right? They still waited, and waited, and waited. Yeah. They didn't, they didn't make any huge leap up to four or five or whatever.
16:34
They got their guy right there at 10. They got their guy. Uh, then the Jets did not go Brock Bowers at 11. They went Fashanu. They went offensive line at 11. Uh, so good for them, 'cause you gotta protect Aaron Rodgers.
16:46
Obviously, got four plays in last year before the ruptured Achilles. So yeah, I mean, you could quibble. I thought maybe they'd go Brock Bowers, but instead they go offensive line. That's fine.
16:54
And then at 12, and, uh, let's shout out Michael Lombardi for this, 'cause he, he obviously had the intel on this, maybe from Sean Payton directly. Bo Nix to the Broncos. Now, [exhales]
17:06
remember the question I asked all guests the last couple weeks, "Which team is gonna botch this draft?" The answer's the Falcons, by the way. Nobody had the Falcons. [laughs] I didn't have the Falcons either, right?
17:17
But the Jets were an answer, the Giants were an answer. It's the Falcons. The Broncos could very well be the team that botches this draft, because Bo Nix is the reach of all reaches.
17:25
And Sean Payton, you know I've had only kind words for Sean Payton on this show- [laughs]... uh, believes that he can make Bo Nix into a great NFL quarterback. We'll see. We'll see. Hey.
17:36
I never watched Bo Nix for one second and thought he was a first round draft pick, let alone the 12th pick in the draft. Six quarterbacks in the top 12.
17:42
The last time six quarterbacks were picked in the first round of the NFL draft was 1983. It was the greatest quarterback draft of all time. John Elway went one to the Broncos. He turned out pretty good.
17:55
Uh, Jim Kelly went 14 to the Bills. Eh, pretty good. Dan Marino went 27 to the Dolphins. Pretty good. Six in the top 12 here. These are the same guys. Same guys. Same- Bo Nix, Michael Penix... come on, man. Same guys.
18:09
And then at 13, and I said this is the best tweet I saw on this. Can't wait for the Falcons to trade for Bo Nix in a few years.
18:15
[laughs] The joke, someone who was at Will or somebody goes, uh, "Falcons looking to trade up for Bo Nix." [laughs] That was the joke. [laughs] It's a good... Twitter was great last night, or even texting.
18:25
The other great one was on this Raiders pick. The Raiders then end up taking Brock Bowers. And there's somebody, I can't remember, I apologize for not giving credit, but someone was like, "Blanket auto pick."
18:35
[laughs] Which is the best way to describe this pick. Brock Bowers going to the Raiders. Brock Bowers, great player. Don't get me wrong. Every- Everybody loves Brock Bowers.
18:45
I w- but I said to my buddies, I was like, "What are they doing?" Who's throwing him the ball again? [laughs] My buddy Tommy in DC, he sends back, he goes, "I don't know, Gil. It's a g- pretty good two tight end set."
18:53
I'm like, "They don't have the luxury to draft 13 for a two tight end set. What are you talking about?" Brock Bowers, congratulations, you're a Raider.
19:01
This, but this is why, like, when we went over the Offensive Rookie of the Year numbers before the draft, now Brock Bowers, instead of being 22 to 1, he should be 220 to 1. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
19:10
Remember, we thought that was a great bet- Yeah... because we, we thought a team that, you know- We thought it'd be, you know, the Jets...
19:14
with a quality offense was gonna draft him, you know, whether the Jets or the Bengals. Yeah, 25 to 1 now, [laughs] so you get a better number on that now. And then the defensive players finally started at 14.
19:23
I, uh, can I go down? Let's, let's skip ahead because the Jaguars was my other bet. They were sitting there at 17. They had their pick of the litter of, uh, of cornerbacks.
19:33
I was-- I had the Jaguars drafting a cornerback first. Uh, there was Quinyon Mitchell, and there was also, uh, Terrion Arnold. And they pa- they traded out. They traded down to 23.
19:45
Then they also had, 'cause Philly then took, uh, Quinyon Mitchell right before them, and they had Terrion Arnold right in their face.
19:50
And instead they went Brian Thomas Jr., considered to be the fourth best wide receiver on the board. And then of course the Lions grabbed Terrion Arnold right after this.
19:57
So I got bookended by the two cornerbacks, and the Jaguars right in the middle lost. So it [laughs] ends up being just this draft that started so promising, went nowhere for me. I, I was in the car trying...
20:07
I felt so bad, 'cause I, I didn't even realize you lost that bet until like- Oh, it was brutal... until the draft was basically over.
20:12
I was in the car coming home when they were, like, when they were selecting, I thought to myself, I'm like, "Well, Gil's gonna get his cornerback, surely." Surely. Surely. Surely.
20:19
By the way, the Rams ended up with Jared Verse at 19.
20:22
Uh, when Jared Verse was shaking Roger Goodell's hand, he asked Roger Goodell, "Is this going to be live real football, or is it gonna be exhibition football like last year?" That's exactly what the quote was.
20:32
Uh, and then the, the j- the drama at the end. You, Felika, and who was the third person who had the over on wide receivers? Zach Cohen. Zach Cohen, you had the over. Drew and- Matt Brown...
20:44
Matt Brown had the under on wide receivers. Never in doubt. And it came down to the end. Surely they couldn't have been beaten, the unders, right?
20:55
But then Ricky Pearsall goes to the Niners and Xavier Legeck, Legeke goes to the Panthers, who trade in.
21:01
By the way, the Panthers, you should be ashamed of yourself for trading up in a draft where you ended up trading out of one. Like, you just should be, just on principle. I agree. Um- I mean, how bad is the NFC South?
21:12
Jeez. Oh my God. But wide out, wide out six and seven to close the round, and that prop determined by that. Oh, [laughs] man. By the way, I wanna shout out Mike Greenberg for one thing too.
21:26
He ma- he did a great job, I thought, when the Chiefs and Bills traded. When the Chiefs and Bills traded. I think we have, we have the wrong, don't we have the wrong, uh, Chiefs pick here? I believe we do on the board.
21:38
Uh, because the Chiefs ended up taking Xavier Worthy, right? The Chief- Yes. Yes. Yes. So we had the wrong pick up there. So the Chiefs and the Bills made a trade.
21:44
The Bills traded out, so the Chiefs traded in and grabbed the speedster of the draft, Texas, uh, wide out Xavier Worthy. And, um, Mike Greenberg did a great job of holding the panel on this.
21:54
Like, he kept coming back to it. He goes, "Wait a minute, guys. You're not understanding what just happened." He didn't say it quite in those words, but he's like, "Let's, let's stick on this.
22:01
The Bills, who are wide receiver needy, just traded out to allow the Chiefs, the team that they are desperately trying to pursue all these years, to draft the fastest wide receiver in the entire draft."
22:14
And I thought he did a great job of, like, getting the other guys on the panel, like including Lewis Riddick- Mm-hmm...
22:20
and the other guys that were on there, to, like, focus in on how unbelievably ridiculous in the moment that seems. Yeah. And he cited McDermott and then Reid having this great relationship. Who cares?
22:30
The relationship hasn't worked out well. And here the Bills are just like, "Here, take Xavier Worthy." It's like the old Eddie Murphy, uh, Saturday Night thing. [laughs] "Go ahead, take the newspaper."
22:38
[laughs] It's just incredible, man. Incredible. What drama. We'll come back. Little NBA on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:47
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at the D, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
22:58
By the way, Kelly, we always, uh, there's so many things we wanna mention on the show, and then we'll go two hours and be like, "Oh, we forgot to mention." We gotta thank a couple listeners.
23:04
Uh, Rod from Michigan, who gave us, uh, Canadian silver dollars this morning. Yeah, it's been an absurd week here at the NBA. Uh, actually. You needn't come bearing gifts. Yeah, really not. Yeah. We really appreciate it.
23:14
Thank you so much. It's so nice of everybody. Uh, and then we gotta shout out Frank from Buffalo- Mm-hmm... who got us these T-shirts.
23:21
A lot of people bring us T-shirts, but this one was, he had, uh, printed on the shirts an actual image of a walkover in tennis, somebody physically walking over [laughs] somebody else.
23:30
So those, we often get T-shirts and we're like, "I don't know if I'll wear this." That one I'd wear. I'd wear that around town. Yeah, yeah, I'll, I took a picture. We'll flash it up later in the show. Walkover.
23:37
Yeah, we'll flash it up. I'll get a, put in it for me at the end of the day. We get- Like you said, we meant to bring it up like every day. Yeah.
23:41
So we apologize, but we've gotten so many nice, nice gifts over the years, and everybody's so sweet. Uh, Trip Tepper, we get tweets of being in the book. Oh, there it is right there. There it is. Oh, there it is.
23:50
Throw that at tennis quitter. The walkover. Walkover. There you go. Bang. [laughs] Remember- Just need Alan Iverson out here saying-... if you're gonna quit, there should be some shame involved.
23:58
[laughs] Uh, Trip Tepper on Twitter, "Gil, you are so right. The cliché political posturing by the front office lemmings in every war room is peak artificiality.
24:06
The backslapping and handshaking is all orchestrated for video shorts on the team's social media feeds." Raj Bhatti. Wow. [laughs] I mean, we were laughing about it. That's a, that's a deep dive.
24:17
I was like pure anger in there. He's like, "I'll tell you why they do it." Raj Bhatti, "That pick pushed Bowers down to the Raiders and took them in a different direction than what they had planned.
24:26
Hopefully Bowers becomes what Waller was supposed to be." Well, Waller was great. He just got hurt. But I'm so... Uh, let me, let me do a Kelly Bidlin. I'm sorry. I don't care that it took him in a different direction.
24:35
I don't, I still don't make that pick. Wolf Named Wayne I believe that, uh, was John Hanson, the fantasy guru, that made that auto-draft comment. That was so great. Oh, blank and auto draft. [laughs] That was awesome.
24:47
Jason Stark, "Hey, Gil, do we know when NBA Defensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year are being announced? I can only find dates for the ones this week." Jason, uh, we assume it's next week,
24:57
where we'll all get crushed by Wembanyama not winning Defensive Player of the Year. But you're right, the NBA guards this information like, uh, you know, the nuclear code. So we assume, by the way.
25:07
Yeah, no, all, all we know is the ones this week. Yeah. Right? Yeah. They'll put out a schedule on Monday.
25:12
Uh, Daniel Coles, "Last night turned into the 2011 draft, where the Titans took Jake Locker eighth, Bla- uh, Jaguars took Blaine Gabbert 10th, and the Vikings took Christian Ponder 12th." You might very well be right.
25:23
History will show. And then Nevada Azer, "What? No love for Todd Blackledge? LOL." Talking about the '83 draft.
25:30
Yeah, I stuck to the Hall of Famers, not the Ken O'Briens and the Todd Blackledges of the world, or the Tony Easons.
25:35
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's the co-host of VSiN Prime Time each and every weekday night here, 6:00 PM on the network. He does it with Jonathan Von Tobel.
25:42
His name is Tim Murray, and he joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Tim? I'm okay, you know. Uh, you know, we've, we've, we've had better drafts, but it is what it is.
25:52
That's the beauty of gambling. So yeah, you win some, you lose some. Uh, we had a couple long shots that had a chance, and, uh, they didn't, they didn't come to roost. So y- we move on, Gil.
26:03
We, uh, we learn from our mistakes, and, uh, we, uh, we, we watch the tape. You know, whatever metaphor you wanna put on it. [laughs] We watch the tape. He's gonna go back and watch the tape of the draft unfolding.
26:13
On to Cincinnati. On to Cincinnati. The, uh, I said at the beginning of the show, Tim, that it is without question. This is not a prisoner of a moment comment.
26:20
It is without question the widest variance of draft results for bettors ever. Some people, I think our own Matt Youmans, just destroyed the draft. He crushed it. Uh, Will Hill did very, very well.
26:35
And then we know a bunch of guys who got crushed. I- so it is one of these weird drafts. What was... What, what did you have that you thought was going to hit that ultimately did not?
26:45
What was the bi- what were the big ones?
26:47
So the one that I really felt good about last night when I was on the air with, uh, with Michael Lombardi and Femi of Beefe was the way the first four picks fell, it gave hope to JC Latham going five.
27:02
So earlier this week, we had heard, uh... I, I had kinda got a, a little bit of a tip that Latham could be the pick at five.
27:10
Then I heard Daniel Jeremiah mention it on a podcast, and then it just really started to garner steam. And, uh, there was a shop in town that was offering 27 to 1 on Latham to be the fifth overall pick. So I grabbed it.
27:22
It wasn't a massive play, Gil, but I mean, to have a 27 to 1 ticket, which closed around plus 300 or something like that.
27:30
So I did have some alt there, but the way the first four picks went, I was of a strong belief that the Chargers weren't gonna get an offer to get out of five, even though everybody was just assuming the Vikings would go up and get JJ McCarthy at five.
27:45
So we were sitting there at five, and I was thinking, "Oh man, we got a chance to hit JC Latham, you know, at 27 to 1." Obviously, he goes seven. Joe Alt goes five. Still a good hit. You mentioned Matt Youmans.
27:57
Uh, shouts to Matt. That was a great hit by him, uh, plus 475 on, uh, on Joe Alt. Uh, and I think you had some of that too, right, Gil? I did. I had Joe Alt. Yeah. Yeah, I did. Yeah.
28:06
In fact- I had, I mean, I had a little Alt, so it wasn't a losing pick for me. Um, but I, I just... The, the, the... You know, when you've got an opportunity there.
28:14
And my bigger bet was Latham under 14 and a half, so that obviously came home pretty easily. But, you know, I mean, you know how it is, Gil. When you've got hope for a big, long shot to hit, especially- Yeah...
28:24
that early in the draft, that really, uh, that really would've set the draft in a, in a positive light. But you know, it, it is what it is.
28:32
The other one that was, uh, that I thought had a chance, and, you know, it was interesting because, um, you know, Stations Casino here in town was the first, uh, to put up draft props. Yep.
28:42
And then they didn't take down the team-specific draft props until around 2:00 in the afternoon yesterday. I guess the rule is you have to take down player-specific ones. Oh, interesting. And it's...
28:56
So I didn't know that, and I checked my app [laughs] and I- [laughs] I didn't know that either. You didn't know that? It's the first I'm hearing that.
29:01
So, well, so I s- I checked my app, and I saw that they still had them up, and they had Rams' first pick tight end at 14 to 1. And we started to really catch some wind that
29:15
the Rams were looking to trade up to get a pass catcher, and I believe it was gonna be Brock Bowers. And you coulda got eight to one on a wide receiver. So I was like, "All right. I'll take some 14 to 1."
29:26
And, uh, you know, as, as, as that pick, as Bowers kept staying alive, I was like, "Wow, this could happen. He could, they could trade up. Hell, they could just stay at 19 and get him." And then
29:38
once he passed the Broncos at 12, I was like, "I think they need to get ahead of the Colts at 15 to get Bowers."
29:45
Never did I imagine the Las Vegas Raiders, who traded up to get Michael Mayer in the second round last year- [laughs]... would draft another tight end, but they did.
29:56
So that was, uh, that was another one that I had some hope that, uh, ultimately didn't come to roost. Gee, it was another game.
30:01
If we could only had, uh, if we could only have had cameras at Kirk Cousins' house and Michael Mayer's house yesterday, and get their live reactions to their respective teams' [laughs] picks.
30:10
Um, yeah, I'd have- Two years. So Gil, how about this? Yeah. I'll give you a little... So two years ago, uh, Brock Bowers won, I think, what is it, the Mackey Award, I think is the tight end of the year.
30:19
And, uh, every Notre Dame fan was like, "This is outrageous. Michael Mayer had such a better year than Brock Bowers. This is a crime." And now he, uh, he's gonna get screwed again because Brock Bowers- Yeah...
30:30
is gonna come and take his job. By the way, I, I flashed this up earlier in the show, Tim. I know, I don't know if you can see this, but this was, this is- Yeah... Stations.
30:36
I have Stations' actual paper printout of, um... 'Cause what other kind of printouts are there? Um, but this is them, uh, Falcons' first selection. This is not from yesterday, but 100 to 1 on a quarterback.
30:47
Is what people could have gotten. Um- There was a-- I do know that, and I don't know the exact number, but I know I was talking to Derek Stevens last night, and I think they had an okay night.
30:57
Uh, I think on, uh, over-hitting on quarterbacks was good for, for Circa. Uh, Nix and Penix going in the first round was good for Circa.
31:05
Um, but what was really bad was the tight end going to the Raiders, 'cause that was a massive long shot.
31:10
And I think, speaking of stations, a buddy of mine, uh, had a 60 to 1 ticket on the tight, uh, the Raiders to select a, a tight end. I think he got it yesterday. So- Wow. Yeah.
31:21
I mean, there were some big bombs, uh, certainly when you think about Falcons to pick a quarterback with their first pick, Raiders to pick tight end. Uh, there were some big long shots out there to have.
31:30
Here's what I wanna know, Tim. Does any of this- Yeah... either from a future standpoint or season win totals in your head or Offensive Rookie of the Year, does any of this induce a bet for you? You know, that's a...
31:43
[sighs] Um, not initially. Um, I, I do, I do really like... And it's, I know, everyone, "Oh, you're picking the Notre Dame guy." But I, I like what the Raiders- [laughs]... have done now with their offensive line, right?
31:57
I mean, you know, I know they've got questions at wide receiver, and I'm not saying that they're gonna be a playoff team because they picked Joe Alt. But, uh, I think they've got some flexibility now.
32:07
They've got some really good bookends on the corners of their line, and Joe Alt being... I, I assume he'll go to right tackle. I don't know that for sure.
32:16
Um, but that would be my guess with Slater staying there at left tackle. But regardless, you've got a pretty interesting, uh, situation there.
32:23
And look, I mean, you look at the quarterbacks, um, you know, I haven't looked at the numbers there, Gil, but our Washington Commies- Yeah, baby... um, you know- You told me... Jayden Daniels, they didn't mess around.
32:33
They got a, a fascinating player. Um, I would guess that he would be the second favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I think they're gonna put the ball in his hands and say, "Let it fly, big fella."
32:44
So- Yeah, man... I think Jayden Daniels, um, you know, I, I gotta look at some prices.
32:49
But I, I, I'd be intrigued by him at Offensive Rookie of the Year, uh, certainly with, with Kliff Kingsbury being his offensive coordinator, and, and they got some weapons for him to, uh, to throw to.
32:59
So I- I'm fascinated how, you know, Jayden Daniels fares as a, as a rookie, just because he can do so much. And, uh, yeah, plus 650, I would, I would definitely take a look at Jayden Daniels there. Yeah.
33:09
When Kelly and I looked at it a couple days ago, before the draft, obviously, uh, that was one of the two that we had pinpointed.
33:15
Brock Bowers, we, uh, assuming that he had gone to the Jets, would've been the other, but that's off the board now. Uh, but Jayden- Yeah... Daniels was the other, absolutely. Uh, great times in DC.
33:23
They, uh, retired Darrell Green's number yesterday, and Jayden Daniels the next day. It's fantastic. Tim, thank you. We'll all be listening tonight, man. Appreciate it. #RaiseHell. Tim Murray, everybody.
33:38
We'll get to the bottom of that coming up. Paul Carr on the Premier League next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Numbers Game live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bedlam. Can you tell I'm, uh, stalling, Kelly? [laughs] Can you tell? Nobody could until you said it, Gil.
34:04
[laughs] Well, I thought maybe, maybe you guys should know. Uh, this is a, uh, great promo going on at DraftKings. Um, $5 to win $200. You bet $5, you get $200 instantly in bonus bets. You bet now at DraftKings.
34:20
Great deal, but you have to use the promo code V-S-I-N. It's promo code VSiN. Bet $5, get $200, new customers, instantly. Bonus bets with the promo code V-S-I-N. It's Gil Alexander. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
34:34
We also get, uh, we also get texts. We also are, like, aware of other people's tweet- tweets that aren't directly to us. Drew Dincic, uh, tweeted this.
34:42
Uh, he said, "I think Fontenot is the only person on earth who had a worse draft day than I did." Drew, Drew tweeted that out. [laughs] Uh, Cleve DM'd me. Cleve TA DM'd me yesterday.
34:52
Uh, he said, "I was on a YouTube show when the eighth pick happened, and it's literally the most stunned I've binned, I've been for a top 10 pick that I can remember. Just horrendous process. The guy is 24.
35:06
By the time Cousins is out, he'll be 27, and no idea if he can play. It's incredible." And then Cleve, uh, tweeted this out this morning, uh, and he's one of the best.
35:17
Cleve TA, one of the best football followers you could have. He tweeted out this morning, um, [laughs] and this is great because he had time to sleep on it. He said, um, "Woke still stunned at Penix to Atlanta.
35:31
I've watched the draft since I was, like, seven, and can't recall a more flabbergasting pick. They knew they had the eighth pick and would be there when they [laughs] q- when they courted and signed Cousins.
35:43
It's not like he had a free fall into the 20s or something." Co- correct. Just all of it is inexplicable. So, so, like, yes, I mean, how long were they thinking and planning this? It's incredible.
35:54
Al- also, if this didn't happen- It's surreal to a point. It, it really is. Yeah. One, one of the things I'm, I'm thinking about right now as you're reading what Cl- Cle- uh, Cleve wrote you,
36:02
would this have been kind of a boring draft if that didn't happen? Sort of. You know what I mean? Like, it kind of played out at the top. Well, 'cause we don't know how it would have gone had it not happened that way.
36:12
Uh, well, it's- Dallas, Turner goes eight- Right... and then everybody's l- you know. Well, that's a good point. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, this is from Chris Jason. "Buffalo should grab, uh, AD Mitchell today.
36:21
Uh, no loss by trading down. Franklin and Kool-Aid also available." Here's the thing about AD Mitchell. Can we decide on what we're gonna call him?
36:27
Uh, AD Mitchell, uh, then people say Adonai Mitchell, and then of course, those on the leaflet and those on the Mishpocha, we say Adonai Mitchell, which I think is how you really should pronounce it.
36:37
Just wanna say it, you know? Just wanna be clear about that. Oh, man. That's good. Michael... Uh, let's see. This is from Jack Locks. "Had Penix to go in the top five at 200 to 1, and him in the top 10 at 17 to 1."
36:48
Good for you, man. Yeah. Good for you. And then Steven, uh, Steven Vegas, "With the Cousins signing- Uh, to Atlanta happened. I beat MGM to the line moves on Cousins MVP and Atlanta Conference Championship.
36:58
I'm the smartest guy in the room. Then I saw that Penix pick at eight and cashed out both those bets at no loss, thankful for that option. Atlanta will never win anything. Wow. That's Steven Vegas.
37:10
I just wanna say this before we get to Paul Carr. Here's the bow on the, on the draft for me as a guy who loved betting the NFL draft. And for year after year after year, if only we had the tape to prove it, right?
37:24
My pinned tweet is still me going after Will Hill for the bets. That was in 2018, right? We crushed the draft. 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022. Every year. Every year.
37:39
And then last year was a disaster, and this year there was no profit at all. And it coincides directly with the NFL becoming really tight-lipped about the draft.
37:48
So now, can you have a year where you do really well like Matt Youmans did, w- like Will Hill did? Yes, you can.
37:55
But can you count on this being a tried and true, profitable, big time sports betting vehicle year after year anymore? And I believe the answer is no longer. I believe that is over.
38:07
I thought this, the past couple years have been interesting, and I think the talk around all that this year was really fascinating.
38:12
I, we were talking about during the break, I did not, I don't even know what his final tally was, but I do, I do wanna make sure we bring this up.
38:19
Matt Youmans, on his mock draft article, uh, his mock draft best bets article, nine and one on bets in that, in that article. The only one he missed out on- [laughs] That's amazing...
38:31
was a nine to one shot for the Bears to draft a li- uh, a defen- or offensive lineman with their second pick. Good on you, Youmans. Killed it. Um, Paul Carr joins us, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
38:43
You can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R. Comes to us from the Extended Value Podcast. Excuse me, the Expected Value Podcast. That'd be a different podcast.
38:50
The Expected Value Podcast, and of course, uh, True Media Networks. Paulie from Topeka, Kansas right here. Uh, I want your Dolphins perspective, and then 'cause you're in Kansas, I want your Chief's perspective.
39:00
What do you got? Dolphins perspective with my Dolphins friends, like Chop Robinson seems like a good player. I have questions, but I'm not a huge college football guy.
39:10
But I don't know if you're that good a pick, you only have four sacks your s- your last season. Seems a little weird to me. Um, and then I'm- [laughs] It's, it's a good point, by the way... I'm, I'm just ask- Yeah...
39:19
I'm genuinely asking. Like- Yeah... it seems odd to me. The, the stats seem lower, but again, I'm not, I'm fine with it. The Dolphins need- Yeah... an edge rusher among- Well, he's a, he's a linebacker though, isn't he?
39:27
... every defensive end. I mean, that's, that's part of it, right? Right. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, yeah. It's probably usage as much as anything. Uh, now my Chiefs fans, my Chiefs friends fans, uh, were super excited.
39:37
The best part of the draft was, like, the minute between the Chiefs have traded up and the Chiefs make a pick, because it reminded me a little bit of when they traded up to get Mahomes.
39:44
You didn't know for sure who it was, but you know if Andy Reid's trading up, it's probably gonna be for an offensive weapon. So that was super exciting.
39:51
So all my Chiefs fans are very happy that they seem to have a speedy deep threat who can actually catch the ball, so. Well, 'cause this is- Yeah, more weapons. Yeah, this is- Right... this is their ancestry, right?
40:00
Tyreek Hill to- Right... Kadarius Toney to now Xavier Worthy, right? Yeah. It's a, uh- Yeah... you can draw the line. Yeah, and again, a shout out Mike Greenberg. I just thought he was great. He- Yep...
40:09
so got it in the moment. Nobody else seemed to on the panel. He was like, "No, you just don't understand what happened. The Bills need a wide out- Right...
40:16
and traded that pick to the team they've been chasing desperately all these years, who then drafted Xavier Worthy, a wide out." It's just incredible. Fastest wide out in the draft. Yep. All right.
40:26
To the other football, the beautiful game, the global football. Yeah. Um, Liverpool lost. Have we had a, we, we have Falica coming up. Do we have a health check on Falica about this?
40:37
I have been afraid to text him anything. Yeah. This is one of those, you know, something bad happens to somebody, you just kind of let them be, and they'll reopen the lines of communication- Yeah... when they're ready.
40:45
Yeah. So I'm gonna listen with you and make sure he's okay before texting him about it. But yeah, they're pretty much out of the title race, like, plus 3500 to win the title now, well behind Arsenal and City. Wow.
40:57
Man City minus 250, Arsenal plus 225, Liverpool 35 to one. It is over. Uh, Everton- Yep... was that who beat them? Everton beat them? Yeah, big rivalry. Yep. Jeez. Wow. All right. What do we got this weekend, sir?
41:11
We're gonna start with the Everton game. Everton Brentford is on Saturday, going over two and a half at minus 120.
41:17
I know Everton is dead last in total goals this season, but it's still about two and a half per game, uh, on average. Uh, two-thirds of Brentford games have had three plus goals. That's fifth most in the league.
41:27
I think both these teams will loosen up after Everton's win over Liverpool.
41:30
Everton's not completely safe from relegation, but it would take a very unlikely series of events, uh, for them to get relegated, so they're virtually safe.
41:38
So yeah, just like the trend of goals all season, I think that's what we have here. So minus 120 on an over two and a half is always gonna look good to me the rest of the year. It is an official Paul Carr segment.
41:47
We have an over two and a half. Everton and Brentford- Yep... tomorrow. Uh, and then you have a thought on Newcastle and Sheffield United. Yeah. Both these next two plays are, again, I reference this, but it's the Dr.
41:58
Bob quote about, "If you must win, you must not be very good." [laughs] So Sheffield United is relegated with a loss here. So, you know, in theory, there's some desperation, but look, they're just not good.
42:08
Newcastle, uh, I'm gonna lay the goal and a half plus 125. They're the fifth best team at home this season, multiple goals in two-thirds of their home games.
42:17
And if, if you throw out the top three teams, they've won half of their home games by multiple goals. So it's fairly straightforward here. Sheffield, not very good. Even worse on the road.
42:25
Fewest goals, worst goal difference on the road this season. I know Newcastle's a little bit tired and battling some injuries, but they're just that much better. They're at home. I'll lay the goal and a half here.
42:35
All right, and then speaking of Man City, and let me just go to the, uh, Premier League table. So right now, Arsenal with 77 points, four games left. Man City, 76 game, uh, 76 points, but five matches left. Right.
42:50
You have a play on Man City here. So City just won at Brighton 4-0 earlier th- during the midweek. Brighton is a lot better than Nottingham Forest, and now City is going to Nottingham Forest.
43:02
And to lay a goal and a half, you can get minus 115, uh, minus 120 maybe on Sunday. I, I have played that. Forest is, again, much worse than Brighton. City's just starting to cook.
43:12
They've won their last four by a combined 17 to four, and those aren't fluky numbers compared to what their expected goals and their shots look like.
43:19
They've won half their league games by multiple goals, uh, and they've won all 11 t- games versus the bottom six teams, and eight of those 11 were by multiple goals. So this is pretty straightforward.
43:28
City crushes weaker opponents, and they're obviously chasing down the titles. They need to keep cooking, and they don't have Champions League to worry about 'cause they're out of that.
43:36
So there's no, you know, looking ahead to next week in the semifinals because City just has this title to focus on. So I'll lay the goal and a half at minus 115 with Man City at Nottingham Forest. All right.
43:46
Everton Brentford, over two and a half goals tomorrow. Newcastle giving up the goal and a half, minus one and a half, uh, plus money versus Sheffield United.
43:54
And then Sunday, Man City laying the goal and a half at Nottingham Forest. Paul, always a pleasure, man. Thank you so much. You bet. We'll talk to you next week. Champions League semifinals. Yes. Looking forward to that.
44:05
All right. Oh, Paul Carr, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You know, I buried the headline. You know what the most entertaining, or I shouldn't say that.
44:12
By entertaining, I mean most cringey part of the draft was last night? The very first thing that happened, Goodell comes out, they're booing him.
44:18
Em- then he br- they bring out Eminem, and Goodell refers to Eminem as, "Get out here, Em." And I'm like, "Ugh." Somehow you missed all the commercials for the past two weeks. Sakes, he called him Em. Chris Falica next.
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