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Apr 26, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 26, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 26, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:32
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:12
VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bedell, live from Barcará, The Barrage, The D, downtown Las Vegas.
0:22
I just wanna read this one tweet, 'cause we have, uh, Jason coming up, Jason Weingarten, Dan Besbris, on the NBA playoffs. Kind of a ho-hum NBA playoffs night. Well, not completely. Well- But mostly...
0:32
it's just got- Yeah... the draft maybe could... I mean, Joel Embiid was ridiculous last night. We have to talk about that next- Joel Embiid was re- Yeah... that's, that's the biggest thing, was Joel Embiid.
0:40
And we got the Guardians scenarios to come up with too. [laughs] That's exclusively on a Numbers Game at VSiN. You will not see this on major media networks. April baseball scenarios.
0:51
All the scenarios that need to happen for the team to have the best record by the end of the month of April. [laughs] That's right. They're not aware of this elsewhere. I just wanna read this one tweet. Donation.
1:01
Dough, D-O-U-G-H. Get it? Ah. Uh, there might be good value on worthy Rookie of the Year, Xavier worthy Rookie of the Year, if he has even, uh, an above average season. Mahomes make everyone around him look better.
1:15
If the Chiefs have a better regular season than last year, people will say Worthy was the quote, unquote, "missing piece." And to that you say? I say I bet it about two and a half minutes ago.
1:23
18 to one here in town to bet MGM. Worth a flyer to me. You're kidding me? There it is. Chiefs trade up for that pick, Xavier Worthy. Caleb Williams- Pa- Pa- Paul Card and I were just talking about it off the air.
1:33
It could be, like, two catches a game and, like, a touchdown and 80 yards. [laughs] That's right. That's fine. Caleb Williams is two to one, he's the short shot, makes sense. Marvin Harrison Jr.
1:40
is actually six to one, be, uh, shorter than Jayden Daniels at plus 650. J.J. McCarthy eight to one with the Vikings.
1:47
Then it's Nabers nine to one, Drake Maye 16 to one, 'cause I don't know if you know this, but he plays for the Patriots. Then Worthy right there, you got him at 18 to one.
1:54
Bo Nix is in there at 18 to one, again, just 'cause he's a quarterback, and so he has the opportunity to do so. Odunze and Bowers rounds out the board at 25 to one. Let's bring in Chris Felica. He is The Bear.
2:05
I don't know if you know that. He is The Bear, not a bear, The Bear. Uh, he's the host of The Bear Bets podcast over at Fox Sports. He joins us courtesy of Progressive Guestline. Chris, how was your draft? How did it go?
2:17
It went very well. It wa- it was a really good night, and, um, you, you, you asked me the question right off the bat, so I didn't get a chance to just drop in the, uh...
2:26
Now, we don't have to f- we don't have to bother with these silly formalities, Mr. White. That was a great Eddie Murphy Saturday Night Live reference- Thank you... earlier in the show. Thank you. Thank you very much.
2:34
You, you, you could not get over my head. Thank you. A great skip. But no, it, it, it was, it was really... It, it, it was great.
2:40
I- The, the over quarterbacks, the, the over wide receivers, uh, Alt going five 'cause we knew it was gonna be an either/or. Yeah. Alt or Latham. Um, Jaxson Powers-Johnson not getting drafted w- was huge.
2:54
Uh, it, Latham going under four. It, it was, it was, it was a, it was a good night.
2:58
I got a little, a little silly trying to get a middle on Wiggins, um, 'cause he drifted up to 29 and a half, so I figured, uh, 26, 27, 28, 29 in three picks. I missed by one. And then of course Murphy getting, uh,
3:13
one pick behind Latu for the best top defensive player. Like, like, that was the thing that the Penix, uh, pick really screwed up, was, like, picks eight through 15 or so. Yeah.
3:25
Because, I mean, the, the assumption, I mean, it was gonna go... Well, the quarterbacks were gonna go over anyway, 'cause maybe the Raiders would have taken Penix.
3:31
Someone was gonna take Penix, and it was gonna go over, uh, the four and a half.
3:35
But I, but I think the fact that the, the Falcons didn't take a defensive player like they should have, nor did they trade the pick like they could have as well to recoup some picks, like, they, that, that completely screwed up everything following down, including...
3:48
I, I think, like, the Broncos, it, it did sound like... I, I heard you earlier, it did sound like Michael Lombardi had some pretty good intel that it was gonna be the Broncos- Yep... that took Nix.
3:56
But I think they were probably gonna tr- trade down a little bit, and maybe you wanna take him at, like, 19 or 20 or something. A- and once Penix went early, that kind of screwed some things up.
4:07
So, uh, but yeah, no, it, it was a, uh, it was a really good night overall for me. Good for you. Um, because as I'll say it a f- a third time, the widest variance in draft betting results there may ever be.
4:19
Certainly there has been, but may ever be. So I mean, some people destroyed, some people got destroyed, and Kelly and I was like one big nothing burger, generally speaking. Um, let me ask you this question.
4:29
Okay, so Penix, we all a- I mean, I think we all agree, like, again, it's two different thoughts. He may end up being good. That's not the point of the draft. Yep. Right? It's, it's a Jordan Love situation.
4:38
I was here defending Jordan Love for, for years. Oh, yeah. Like, when you hold the clipboard for three years, you usually turn out pretty good, and that turned out. Doesn't mean it was a good pick, right, at the time.
4:47
No. No. And, and that's the... And, and it's really not even a Jordan Love situation. Like, like I, I'm, I'm getting worked up when, when people talk about it that way.
4:56
Like, the Packers were a perennial playoff team that didn't have a ton of, like, pressing needs. Jordan Love was 21. It was the 24th pick in the draft.
5:06
This is the eighth pick in the draft and you're taking a quarterback- You're right... that's gonna be 24. You're right.
5:11
And then finally to come out and be like, "Oh, well, if he doesn't play for four years, that's, that's a good..." I'm like, no it's not.
5:17
It means you're gonna have a 27, 28-year-old quarterback who you spent the eighth pick on the draft on with defensive needs, a- and you have no idea if he can even play. It, it, it was, it was just a...
5:27
Either, either you had immediate buyer's remorse on Kirk Cousins and were like, "Yeah, I don't know if we should've given him $110 million guaranteed-" [laughs] "... or you screwed up the eighth pick."
5:37
It's one or the other. Yeah. I, no, no, I was, I was just bringing up the Jordan Love thing to, again, get to the whole thing of you have to hold two thoughts in your heads at the same time.
5:45
Just because someone- Mm-hmm... may end up being good- Right... doesn't mean it's the- Right... correct pick at the time. Um, so I wanna remove Michael Penix, because we're not gonna see.
5:54
If, if Kirk Cousins plays fine and stays healthy, we'll probably not- Mm-hmm... see much of Michael Penix this year. So I want you to put on... You go into the future here. Who is the first... Who, who gets...
6:07
As you see the season playing out with the Patriots and the Broncos, who do you think ends up getting crushed more? Drake May as a New England Patriot starting quarterback, or, or the Bo Nix era in Denver?
6:21
Where do you see this? Like, if we project- Oh...
6:23
to like guessing lines in the mega pod, and we're in the middle of, you know, week four and then week five, who do you think gets destroyed first, where we're like, "Oh, this was horrible"?
6:32
Probably Drake May and the Patriots, because he was third overall, and they just don't have any players around them on offense.
6:41
Now, I'm sure they'll address that today a- and take a wide receiver or so, but, like, May was viewed as a...
6:47
Uh, uh, you listen to, to, to Mero Hodge and listen to other quarter- other, other draft picks, players before the...
6:54
Like, everyone's like, "He's got a city here, and he's gonna be thrown right into the fire," 'cause they... I mean, they're not gonna... I mean, I would assume they're not gonna start Jacoby Brissett. I mean, they...
7:04
I- if they do, then more power to them, and that's a great thing to do.
7:06
But I think ultimately it'll be, uh, Drake May and the Patriots who wind up getting crushed a little bit more, because I, I, I do think Denver is a little bit further along in terms of the personnel, uh, that they have around Bo Nix.
7:18
But I, I was cracking up with the, "Oh, he's the highest rated, highest, uh, completion percentage ever." I... Yeah, he's throwing the ball four yards downfield. Of, of, of course you're gonna complete- [laughs]...
7:29
90% of your passes if you, if you're throwing the ball four yards at or behind the line of scrimmage. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Uh, there are some books that have second-round bets available tonight.
7:38
Do you have any thoughts on that? I, I would think, um... So, so what do we got? We got Buffalo picking first, right? Yeah.
7:46
You would as- you would assume, like, wide receiver, wide receiver might be the play with A- with, with, with AD Mitchell or, or, or Ladd McConkey, someone like that.
7:56
I, I, I think Newton, Newton the, uh, the defensive lineman from Illinois will probably go off the board pretty early as well.
8:03
But, but I would think one of those wide receivers, whether it was, uh, whether it's Mitchell or, uh, [lip smack] or McConkey, would probably be, uh, an early pick here. And then N- Newton is...
8:14
New- Newton, Newton was a pick that I actually... That was one of my, I don't wanna say bigger losses, but that was something I was wrong about. I did, I did play him to be picked in the first round, and he wasn't.
8:22
So that hurt a little bit. But I, I, I think, I think those three, one of those three guys will probably be off the board pretty early today. Who's gonna take the corner from Iowa?
8:31
Cooper, uh, Cooper DeJean, who's gonna take him? Um- And are we... And are they gonna keep him as a corner, or are they gonna make him a safety? That's the real thing I wanna know. That, yeah, that, that's the thing.
8:42
Well, well, what are the... The, the Chargers probably need defensive help there, right? Yeah. That, that, that could be a po- that could be a possi...
8:47
But, but again, they, they're another team that, again, we're gonna s- we're gonna see, like, the fir- the reaction to the first round might be a whole lot different after tonight when you see the Chargers take Joe Walt and then a wide receiver at the top of the second round- Right...
9:02
or, or, or, like, what, what wide receiver the Patriots now get w- to pair with Drake May. Like, we're, we're g- we're gonna get a better, a more fuller idea of, of how these teams actually, uh, are built up. Yeah.
9:12
Like I said, every GM today is like, "I couldn't, we couldn't believe he was still on the board." [laughs] Exactly. It's like a Ja- it's like a, it's like a Jackie Mason thing. Um- [laughs] What was the best...
9:21
You're a college football observer, Barner, you know- Mm-hmm... above all. Mm-hmm. What was the best second half of the first-round pick made in this draft, in your opinion? Oh, we just lost Chris.
9:36
I thought he- Or he's really thinking about this... I, I thought he was deep in thought. [laughs] We got a freeze frame on him- Minnesota... oh, he's back. Okay. [laughs] Start again, Chris.
9:43
I thought you were deep in thought. Yeah. I, I was, yeah, I was deep in thought. Yeah. I was gonna say, I, I wouldn't...
9:48
I, I don't like what Minnesota did to trade back up to get Dallas Turner, but, but I think he's the player that would, would... I mean, uh, I, I, I think he's an, an immediate impact player on that defense.
10:00
Obviously, I think Xavier Worthy is gonna be the, the, the player that everybody points to there, and, and, and obviously that, that is a great pick.
10:06
But I, I think if you're looking for, like, immediate, like, super impact, Dallas Turner I think is a guy who we all thought was gonna go in the top 10.
10:13
And for him to be there at 17, and the Vikings gave up a lot both to get McCarthy and Turner, so it, it better work out for them as well. The, the Falcons were the big loser in the draft, and it...
10:22
We'll, we'll see how it pans out for Minnesota. They, they, they got the guys that they wanted, but they, uh, they gave up a lot of future equity to get those guys.
10:29
I don't know how much interviews impress or don't impress you, or how much you care about interviews. I'm always interested to see how these kids react to stuff. Mm.
10:38
I would say Caleb Williams, like, just brimming [laughs] with confidence. Caleb Williams- Yeah... was like, "This is nothing. This is, um, first round. Who cares?" Yeah. It's great.
10:44
Um, but I loved both cornerbacks, who the Jaguars notably did not select. One right before them, one right after them. Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. Who did you... Who do you think is better?
10:56
Uh, I, I mean, I did not see a whole lot of Mitchell this year. I did, I did not watch a whole lot of Toledo.
11:02
But anytime you're taking an Alabama defensive back, and obviously the Eagles have a lot of experience, or, or the Lions rather, have a lot of experience with, uh, Alabama defensive backs.
11:12
Like, it, it, it's a, it's a good position. And to listen to, to Nick Saban last night talk about Arnold and the type of kid that he is- Yeah... he was Miss Terry's favorite player at, at Alabama.
11:22
I, I think in that scheme, he's got a bra- a, a chance to be good. By the way, we got a bet for today. I'm gonna go with, uh, QPR winner draw plus 140 against Leeds in the, uh, the championship league.
11:34
Who's fighting for one of those automatic promotion spots. On the road, they haven't been a great road team. QPR is just up for a couple of points to stave off relegation. QPR plus 140, uh, winner draw for today.
11:46
All right. We'll repeat that back, and he looks okay that Liverpool lost. That doesn't seem to be a problem. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Back on the numbers game, live from Bar Canada. At the D, Gil Alexander, Kelly Billy, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Uh, we're talking NBA, we promise. Yeah. Dan Bestperson will be here.
12:10
We're gonna talk NBA momentarily. But the draft is just... The draft just takes over. We get tweets at Betting the Book. This is from, uh, TheRGB, "As a lifelong Falcons fan, I literally threw up in my mouth." Literally?
12:23
When they drafted Penix. [laughs] Can you imagine if he literally did that? Then a long sweat to the bitter end with both over, uh, nine and a half SEC players and wide receivers.
12:33
Any early odds on the Super Bowl flyover he adds in. Uh, this is from, let's just see, Tom F, T for three. [laughs] Celtics and Jazz fighting to trade up for the Iowa quarter. [laughs] Cooper Tiffany. [laughs] Oh, man.
12:48
Because of course they are. How many times, like in an NBA draft, I would say if the Celtics and Jazz picked a player, I'd be like, "Because of course they did." Oh, that's maybe the tweet of the week.
12:56
[laughs] Um, Rick Pack. "Regarding Drake May, I heard last night the Pats are going to start Jacoby Brissett. I think that came from Mike Lombardi." That makes sense, by the way.
13:05
They started Jacoby Brissett to start the season. I would th- I don't have a problem with that. I would think so. Yeah. I was a little surprised Chris, uh, Chris said that, but I, I, I get it.
13:12
I guess I get it either way. Um, Guardian time. Yeah, buddy. Ladies and gentlemen, the Cleveland Guardians have four games left before the end of April. Five days left, they have four games left.
13:26
First of all, before we get into the scenarios, here is the path. This is when I made the bet.
13:31
So before the baseball season started, for those who are just landing on this show for the first time, uh, I made a bet on the Guardians at 65 to 1 to have the best record. Oh, excuse me, not... Let me be clear.
13:42
Have the most wins in baseball in the months of March and April. They played a few games. Uh, all teams played a handful of games, something like four games actually in, in end of March, and the entire month of April.
13:51
So I bet them 65 to 1 most wins. It was schedule analysis, uh, and really how you could avoid weather, that sort of thing. And I projected a path for them.
14:02
The left column here is what I thought they needed to go in each series in March and April, and what's on the right is what they've actually done. It's pretty accurate. It's almost dead on. Mm-hmm.
14:14
Uh, the left is 23 and 7. Right now they are 8- uh, right now they are, uh, 18 and 7 in the right column. Now, they can only go 22 and 7, not the full 23 and 7, uh, theoretically, because they lost a game.
14:27
Uh, we've had bad luck. Lost a game to rain in Minnesota that won't get made up before the end of April. It'll get made up in August. And lost their ace, Shane Bieber, Tommy John surgery. So it has not been good luck.
14:41
The only team unluckier though is the Braves, who also lost their ace, Spencer Strider, and lost two games due to rain. So here are, right now, here are the standings. The Guardians have the most wins. They're 18 and 7.
14:54
They did, uh, they got that 18th win yesterday with a gutty win. Uh, held on for victory against the Red Sox, 6 to 4 win after having a 5 to nothing lead, uh, on the strength of a José Ramírez grand slam.
15:06
So they're 18 and 7. The Braves and the Yankees. The Yankees lost to the A's last night. The Yankees only managed a s- series split with the Oakland Athletics 2 and 2. The Braves are at 17 and 6. They're in second.
15:18
Guardian's 18 and 7, Braves 17 and 6, Yankees 17 and 9. And then you have a slew of teams that have 16 games with very, uh, with differences in amount of losses.
15:28
Now, the tiebreaker at Circa, at DraftKings, this, they had this bet, but it's a dead heat situation.
15:33
At Circa, the tiebreaker is if teams end up with the s- with the, uh, same amount of wins, fewest losses, and the number two tiebreaker is run differential. What are you smiling about? Uh, uh, I'm sorry, man.
15:43
I was really not trying to distract you. What? It's the, uh, just things I find funny at the D, right? Oh. [laughs] Sorry. There's like product placement basically going on in the background of you right now- Oh, okay...
15:51
for Goodfellas. Oh, is that right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's like- Oh, I didn't notice that... it looks, it looks like an over the shoulder graphic, like you have a news report on Goodfellas coming up. All right. Move on.
15:59
Here's the- Go on. [laughs] Sorry. Here's the deal. No, that's okay. Here's the deal. [laughs] He's, like, bursting with laughter. All right. So now what does that...
16:06
That the Yankees lost last night and the Guardians win means that control of destiny has come back to the Guardians. So here's what it means now.
16:13
Here's the bottom line as the Guardians head into their final four games, which you couldn't ask for a harder assignment. Three are at Atlanta.
16:22
I think everybody's belief that they're the best team in baseball, and Dodgers fans might quibble, Yankees fans might quibble, but at Atlanta, it doesn't get any harder than that.
16:28
We always knew the hard part of this is at the very end. They've done everything that we asked them to do to this point. This has been handicapped perfectly to this point.
16:38
If we, at the beginning of this bet, could have taken this scenario right now, we would have taken it 100 times out of 100. If the Guardians go 4 and 0, okay, just play with me here.
16:48
If they go 4 and 0, because they control their own destiny, we win the bet. And when I say we win, it's because lots of people have tailed this bet. If they go 4 and 0, we win. If they go 3 and 1,
17:02
only the Yankees could beat us with a 5 to nothing finish. But the issue with the Yankees is they gotta go at Milwaukee for three and at Baltimore for two. So the likelihood of them going 5 and 0 is very slim.
17:15
Baltimore and Milwaukee could tie us if they went 5 and 0 and we went 3 and 1.
17:23
But I just mentioned to you that the Yankees play Baltimore, the Yankees play Milwaukee, so the schedule on that actually works out for us because theoretically those teams will beat up on each other.
17:34
So while 4 and 0 is a clinching win, 3 and 1 probably wins it for us also. Here's where it gets a little dicier. There are two different 2 and 2s. Uh, this is not the updated version of this.
17:49
If the Guardians go 2 and 2 and the two wins are against Atlanta, so they go 2 and 1 against Atlanta and then they lose at Houston in the last game.
18:01
If they do that, it's actually a pretty favorable scenario too because, yes, the Yankees could still beat us in that case with a 4 and 1 or a 5 and 0. They could tie us with a 3 and 2.
18:13
Remember, they're at Milwaukee, they're at Baltimore. And Milwaukee and Baltimore could beat us with a 5 and 0, but again, they have to play the Yankees, both of those teams, and they could tie us with a 4 and 1.
18:24
Philly, Kansas City, and the Dodgers could beat us with a 5 and 0. That's if the Guardians go 2 and 2, but two of the wins are against Atlanta.
18:32
So 4 and 0 we clinch, 3 and 0 we probably win, and the 2 and 2 where two wins are against Atlanta, winning two out of three, not outlandish at all to win it that way either. Where it gets dicey is everything below that.
18:46
If they go 2 and 2, but it's only one win against Atlanta in the three-game set, and then they win the Houston game, all of the scenarios that I just spelled out in the 2 and 2 where they beat Atlanta twice apply, but Atlanta would also have to lose one of their games to Seattle afterwards.
19:03
They're at Seattle. It's possible. So it's not, if they, if they go 1 and 2 in this series, it might not be a death knell.
19:09
Like, we could still be, we could very easily still be back here on Monday saying, "Oh, this is still alive if this happens tonight and tomorrow." If they go 1 and 3, the Guardians, or 0 and 4, it's over.
19:20
I didn't even bother going through those scenarios because you just want to avoid the 1 and 3 and the 0 and 4. So again, 4 and 0, we win. 3 and 1, we probably win. 2 and 2 with two wins against Atlanta looks pretty good.
19:31
2 and 2 with only one win against Atlanta probably ain't dead yet. And then 1 and 3 and 0 and 4 we lose. Let's go. Those are your exclusive numbers game Cleveland Guardian scenarios.
19:42
And Adam Berk, I'm giving them back to you in five days, I promise.
19:45
I could just, I could just see you in your, uh, your, like, race car bed at home jotting down all these schedule notes, looking up all the, all the sheets, newspapers in front of you with, with schedules, standings.
19:55
Once it gets to these few games, it's not that hard when you have the lead. [laughs] And by the way, when the Jaguars didn't pick a cornerback, I was like, let me look at scenarios. You're like, I got time.
20:02
[laughs] Yeah. But the NBA, I almost had to remind myself was on. The Magic end up destroying Cleveland in game three. Uh, apparently the venue is all that matters in that series.
20:14
So Orlando now, uh, gets off the schneid. They trail that best of seven first round series 2 to 1. Game four obviously, uh, remains in Orlando. Um, the second result last night, they won it 121 to 83.
20:26
They led by 43, I believe, at one point. Insane. Um, great game from Paolo Banchero.
20:32
The second game was fascinating because the Sixers got off the schneid in their best of seven series, to use the Chris Berman phrase, in their best of seven series, uh, against the Knicks first round best of seven series.
20:43
Uh, they win, do the Sixers, but this was an, an, a fascinating game because Joel Embiid ended up with a 50 burger in this game. A 50 burger.
20:55
But when he had four points in the first quarter and the score was 18 to 15, this was when he had four points, he grabs Mitchell Robinson's ankle and when he's on the ground, and it ends up being a flagrant one. Mm-hmm.
21:13
Some may have made the case for a flagrant t-two, which would have been an automatic ejection.
21:18
But instead it's only a flagrant one, which, you know, uh, the pool reporter got it out of the officials why they called it a flagrant one. They didn't think it was that excessive.
21:29
But let's be honest, remember that the two-minute report already said that game two- Yeah... that the refs blew it and that, um, that Tyrese Maxey was fouled not once but twice in that last sequence against the Knicks.
21:42
So the, there was no way they were gonna eject Joel Embiid. It's a star call too. Like, if it's to- It's a star call, but it's a makeup call... if it's Tobias Harris doing that- It's everything...
21:51
I think Tobias Harris gets kicked out of the game. Maybe. Joel Embiid, no. He has a- And then he had a Draymond and, you know, flailing leg incident later, uh- That's right... later as well that coulda got him booted.
21:59
That's right. Oh, 'cause Thibodeaux said, "Which, which one are you referring to?" Well, exactly. "The one that got called or the one that didn't get called?" Yeah, it didn't even get called.
22:04
But he scores 50, um- On what, on what, on 19 field goal attempts, one of the most efficient shoot, uh, shooting nights of all time. He, he made five threes in the process. Was great from the line.
22:16
And then reveals after the game that he has Bell's palsy. Oh, crazy. Which is a- Which I'm not very familiar with. I had to read up.
22:23
Well, we'll read the definition, but it's a, it's usually a temporary condition, but it affects your face. Remember the interview after game two? Mm-hmm. Where he was, had his hood acceptable. His head down, yep.
22:32
He was, he's hiding his face. He's wearing sunglasses. 'Cause, 'cause he says, he goes, "I have a beautiful face." So he [laughs] said that out loud. So, and he still scores 50. Man, Joel Embiid coming up big.
22:42
And obviously we'll talk about the, uh, third game last night with Vespers, where the Nuggets are sticking it to the Lakers again. Weingarten next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
They're showing Caleb Williams walking out for the pick. He is just, like, dressed to the nines. He just was like, "Yeah, this is cool. I got this."
23:01
I didn't get when we got off the air yesterday, I saw some live shot of him, like, playing cards, like, trying to build up the drama of him, like, burning the time. I was like, we all know he's going number one.
23:11
What, what's the hurry? Unfazed. We get tweets at Betting the Book. Nevada Azer, "I keep hitting the cash out b-button on this, uh, Bowers Offensive Rookie of the Year bet. It doesn't seem to work. LOL."
23:21
Uh, John Massey, "Devil's advocate, both Cleveland and Atlanta control their own destinies for most wins in April." Yes, I didn't mean to suggest that they did not. Atlanta does too.
23:30
Uh, but Cleveland, uh, for our point, from our point of view, does control their own destiny. Chance Copperpot, "Stroud, uh, was brutal last draft, and I wasn't really excited to bet this draft, but I did, of course.
23:42
I would like to thank Michael Lombardi for having such a strong opinion on the quarterbacks going over, uh, five and a half in the first round, or I'd have," or over five and a half, right, "in the first round, or I'd have been panthbered by the Falcons."
23:54
Uh, we mentioned that earlier. Michael Lombardi might have gotten it from Sean Payton directly. He knew, he knew, uh, what was coming. CJ, "Love following your, uh, Indians bet every night.
24:04
Will you have a May best record in baseball bet too?" Uh, I probably won't 'cause I am exhausted. I really am. [laughs] I'm exhausted.
24:13
Mike Alvarez, "Hopefully the Bravos are shaken to their core about the Falcons draft [laughs] and can't focus on baseball until May 1st. Uh, the Yankees just because.
24:22
What does a Dodgers five and O rollover parlay pay, by the way? Asking for myself."
24:26
Kevin Ryan: "Dylan, it would appear you've done more homework and an- an analyzation," he says, "on the Cleveland Guardians' first month on the MLB schedule than the Atlanta Falcons did on this draft. My lord."
24:36
And David Chalifour: "Need to hear Todd Wishnov explaining the Falcons pick in his football coach voice." [laughs] Um, couple things. One, 'cause someone asked about hedging, uh, the F- the, uh, Falcons.
24:47
The Braves are $2 favorites tonight, Chris Sale on the hill against Logan Allen. I will not be doing that tonight, but if the Braves win tonight, I will then jump in starting tomorrow. Uh, we will not lose money on this.
25:01
We will only win money on this.
25:02
'Cause I will jump in and, and, uh, and secure money 'cause I, uh, I'll get more than the outlay, and this'll be a win no matter what, but it won't any, it won't any, be anywhere close to 65 to 1. Make that, uh, clear.
25:14
Um, the other thing before we get to Jason, I'm glad you said this, 'cause we were talking about Joel Embiid. You said something off air.
25:20
You're like, "Because of the NFL draft, we might have missed one of the epic playoff performances," right? 'Cause we were all so locked into the draft.
25:28
Joel Embiid, 50 points, uh, efficient 50 with Bell's palsy, avoiding ejection. Like, can't quite, like can't, can't close his left eye, basically.
25:37
He's go- well, every time he's going over to the bench, he's getting eye drops. Yeah, Bell's palsy, by the way, I'll read this, is a condition that causes sudden weakness in the muscles on one side of the face.
25:46
Often the weakness is short-term and improves over weeks. The weakness makes half of the face appear to droop. Smiles are one-sided, and the eye on the affected side is hard to close. And this dude dropping 50. 50.
25:59
So you said that we made a mis- we might have missed it because of the NFL draft. Do you think that the NBA will decide, "You know what?
26:08
We should probably punt on the first round of the NFL draft and not play any playoff games on that night"? Do you think they'll get that memo? Yeah. Because I think it's a great, I think what you said- Yeah...
26:18
is a great point. We, we didn't, I forgot that they were even playing, I was so into the draft. Well, well, and even, like, okay, like today's a perfect example.
26:25
I think smart by the NBA today, you, I've never, I don't remember seeing this- Oh, yes... where they have an earlier scheduled game. We have a- They have three games today We have an afternoon Pacific game today. Right.
26:33
There's a 5:30 tip, 2:30 Pacific, Milwaukee and Indiana. It's like, why wouldn't you do that on [laughs] the, the day before- [laughs] I love that... the first round of the N- NFL draft. Yeah.
26:42
I think that could make some sense. That's exactly right. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California.
26:48
You can follow him on Twitter, @spreadapedia, and he comes to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. It's our old friend, Jason Weingarten. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good.
26:56
Um, you were just mentioning the early tip time for, uh, for NBA. I remember them doing that for playoff games, but it was, like, wanna say, like, the year 2000. Maybe, like, 1999. Oh. So it was a very long time ago.
27:11
Wow. But it's been, been a while. Was there any specific reason for this, by the way? Or are they just like, "No, let's try this out"? That's a great question. I don't know.
27:19
It, it, yeah, Jason's probably- I, I don't know. Yeah. But, but, like, I lo- I wish more sports had 2:30 PM Pacific start times- Me too... random game. Like- Me too... you know? It, it, the, I'm pro that.
27:32
Um- I think baseball, baseball should do it more often than just Wednesdays, right, during the week. Yeah, we should, I mean, there should be one day baseball game every day.
27:41
I, I, I mean, I think everyone's in agreement on that point except baseball itself. [laughs] Except baseball itself. Okay, before we get into anything you're betting here. By the way, uh, congratulations on Nas Reed.
27:51
Congratulations to you, sir. Yeah. Thank you. Um, the real, the real credit there in this one goes to Preston, though.
27:57
It was, uh, his bet that he, he shared with me, and I actually forgot that I had it till, uh, two weeks ago, so. That's right. [laughs] 'Cause someone- Um, I got, got lucky this time... someone tweeted us.
28:07
They were like, "Oh, you guys are the best. You gave out Nas Reed. Did someone on your show give out Nas Reed at 60 to 1 way back when?"
28:13
And I'm like, "I don't think Jason remembered he had it," so I don't know if it was Jason. [laughs] Yeah, it was me. I- Yeah. [laughs] If it was me, I don't remember. Yeah. But thank you.
28:20
I'll take, I'll take credit for it as- [laughs] Put it on my tab as the winningest guest in Decent history. There you go. There you go, yeah. Um, let's see. Since you bring up our buddy Preston.
28:30
Preston Johnson is who Jason is referring to. Uh, Preston used to be on Daily Wager on ESPN. Most people probably know him from that.
28:37
Preston and I used to do podcasts on college football bowl games where we would do, like, 40 college bowl games and we would charge a dollar. That's, that was our economic structure back then, right?
28:48
Preston now owns, uh, because of the wonders of NFT, he, uh, and, uh, he owns a, uh, League Two soccer team, Crawley Town, and they are headed to, into their last game. Jason, could you explain the scenario?
29:03
Uh, Crawley is one point out of the last playoff spot in League Two. If, if you're not familiar with League Two, it's, it's the league Wrexham's in that they just won and are getting, uh, promoted from.
29:16
Um, Crawley, same league. We're, uh, on the verge of the playoffs here. Uh, a win would potentially get us in, but we still need some help. Um, there's a couple games.
29:29
I think Barrow, Barrow would, would need to draw or lose to Mansfield. And, uh, we have this situation with Colchester and, uh, Crewe Alexandra that are both, um, in position. I think Crewe makes the playoffs.
29:43
Colchester avoids relegation with a draw. So both, both, uh, sides are incentivized to draw. Um, I don't think they're gonna come out and just kind of kick it around and, and not try to play.
29:55
That's, that happens more in other, other countries. Like Italy, they do that all the time. Um, I think they're gonna actually play at least the first half. But gotta keep an eye on these other games.
30:06
But, uh, obviously, like always, you can only control what you can control. So, you know, hopefully Crawley just goes out there and wins, and the other stuff falls into place. But, you know, everything, gotta win first.
30:18
Yeah. So, um, you know. I see. Worry about winning your own game always. So if you make the playoffs, again, for those who don't know what we're talking about, this is, uh, uh, Preston revamped the whole thing.
30:26
Obviously Jason's involved too. Preston revamped the whole thing going on a Moneyball approach. This completely rankled the Crawley faithful. Um, they hated him openly for this.
30:38
And now on the verge of a playoff position, how do you go up to League One? What do you have to do to go up to League One? We gotta win, gotta win the playoffs. Gotta win the playoffs. That'd be awesome.
30:47
Gotta win the whole thing. Multi-round, gotta win the multi-round playoff. Um- Okay. One step at a time. If you get to the playoffs, Pres- Yeah, exactly. One, one step at a time. Yeah.
30:54
Preston'll come on the show if you get to the playoffs. Oh, so this is a pl- That would be- There is a playoffs here. Yes Not the top whatever event- Correct. Not like the Premier League... advance promotes. Yes.
31:01
The four, four teams make playoffs. Okay. Bro, this would be so awesome. Let's go. Uh, okay. Uh, did you bet the draft? Did you do okay if you did? I did not bet the draft.
31:12
It actually felt liberating to, uh, not care and not have to worry about anything. Um, in the end, I, I ended up betting two bets for 50 bucks each yesterday and I, I went 0 and 2, so, uh- There you go. All right...
31:24
yeah. Yeah. Oh, what, what do you, what am I good for? What are you good for? Do you have any baseball today or anything that you're betting? I, I do have, uh, two baseball games today.
31:34
Let me pull them up for you real quick. My computer is deciding to be a bit slow. Um, I got the Nationals plus 114 and the Mets minus 126 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
31:44
Um, yeah, things just keep getting worse for the Marlins. They just lost, uh, Jesus Luzardo. Looks like he's, uh, he's the latest pitcher with, uh, arm problems. It is amazing.
31:55
You know, so I, I culled together these standings for the Guardians bet, um, religiously every day, and I go all the way through all 30 teams in Major League Baseball, and it is amazing how bad the bad teams are, right?
32:06
Like, and that includes the Astros. Like, what i- what is your story with... What would you, how would you describe the Astros at this point, who only have seven wins? You know, a lot of it is just unfortunate.
32:18
The, unfortunately, the variance that comes with baseball, sometimes you do all the right things and you still lose, but another part of it is a lot of their players are just getting old, you know?
32:27
Like José Abreu, he's old. Uh, Justin Verlander, old guy. Like, can only rely on these guys for so long.
32:34
Um, they kind of pushed off, uh, James Click, who, you know, did a really good job stabilizing the front office after the whole scandal and everything.
32:43
Um, and now they, they just have, like, Reggie Jackson and Jeff Bagwell and a bunch of guys, uh, you know, advising the owner, and the owner's trying to get more involved, and I don't know, just probably too many people trying to make decisions, and they, they had a good thing working and now they're, they're kind of messing with it.
33:01
Yeah, White Sox three wins, Marlins six, Rockies and Astros seven. One of those teams is not like the other, uh, at the bottom of Major League Baseball. All right, Jason, we gotta run.
33:11
Any other bet we should know about before you leave this weekend? Nothing exciting. I'll be back to full speed next week. Uh, Astros could be sellers if they keep losing. That- Yeah... that would be interesting. Yeah.
33:21
Hope that DEI job's going okay as well, Jason. Hope that's going all right. Oh, it's great. It's great. It's, uh, it's, it's, it's good. We'll, we'll talk about that next week. [laughs] Okay, we will.
33:30
Jason Weingart from under a cloud of smoke, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, everybody. More NBA on the other side. We gotta talk about the Lakers and the Nuggets and tonight's trio of games next.
33:39
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
Hey, don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:58
From the play-in tournament through the final, DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered with same-game parlays, live betting, odds boosts, and so much more. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code VSIN.
34:07
New customers bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code V-S-I-N, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Biblin, live from Bar Canada at the D on a Numbers Game. We get tweets.
34:20
That'd be the book. Always appreciate everybody. Uh, best listeners, honestly. You really are. We appreciate you so much. Uh, Trey Edge, "I had Bell's palsy recently. One eye couldn't blink for weeks.
34:34
Countless diet Dews streaming down the outside of my mouth and down my face. Not a pretty sight." Oof. Uh. "Usually takes months to recover, so what Embiid is doing is amazing." That's from someone who had Bell's palsy.
34:47
It's incredible. Thank you for that, uh, Trey. I know Embiid said yesterday, too, it's, you know, he really started to feel it just before that play-in game, and that was- Yes, he started to feel... That, uh, good point.
34:58
Right before the Miami play-in game. 'Cause we, I, uh, we were talking that day after, and I, I mean, I was- Remember, yes... I was shocked watching that game 'cause he looked, it looked like it was more than a knee.
35:07
It looked like something else was going on. That's right. You kept saying it. He's like, "Why is he so exhausted?" Uh, yeah. That's right, and now it all makes sense. Now it all makes sense, yep.
35:15
Uh, Martle, "For your Cleveland most wins ticket where you borrowed, uh, Adam Burke's team for the spring, [laughs] would you consider taking the Braves' series price for a small amount?"
35:24
That's another way I could hedge it. Yes, you're absolutely right. I, I'm glad that got tweeted. Yeah. I was gonna ask you about that 'cause I think- That's another way. I, maybe I will do that...
35:31
I think those series bets have become- Yeah... a little bit more common right, uh- Yeah... around the country, so. I'll see, I'll see what the price is and I'll try to figure it out.
35:37
Because the other way to play it is if Cleveland somehow wins tonight, well, then I just delay the hedging one more night also kind of thing. Um, so we'll see.
35:49
I'll take a look at the pitching matchup, what the projected game two line will be. But yeah, we will not lose money on this, I promise you that. Uh, Robert Busa.
35:55
Oh, this is a great question, Robert, and you're thinking along with the host here. He says, "Can you ask Jason when Preston and Jason are gonna have their own docuseries on FX?"
36:05
So it's funny, 'cause Robert, as I was talking to Jason there and I was looking at the clock,
36:10
if there had been time, I might have asked Jason this very question, 'cause I was thinking to myself, and then when there was no time, I was like, "I'm just gonna wait for Preston to come on.
36:17
If Preston is able to come on, I'm gonna ask him this." Preston and j- and Jason and all those guys, and their buddy Sean, who's, like, the real NFT billionaire of it all, they literally...
36:30
We went to dinner, and they were talking about doing a documentary on Crawley, and Preston's entire journey, making this boatload of cash, buying a soccer team, just absolutely hated by the fan base, this Yankee coming in and trying all these money ball tactics.
36:48
Here they are on the cusp of the playoffs now. They were gonna do this entire documentary, and then this Ryan Reynolds dude comes in and basically bites their entire idea.
36:58
[laughs] And now he's, like, beloved more than anything in his whole career for Wrexham. Yeah. He totally tilled their idea. Power of Hollywood there. Totally gonna ask Preston about that.
37:08
I think it's still a great, I think it's still a great idea just because of- Yeah... the, the beginnings. A- and, I mean, the NFT stuff and everything, which is- It's amazing...
37:16
an incredible, a, I mean, incredible story. It's an... W- was it, uh, CryptoPunks was their thing? Yeah. CryptoPunks. Yeah, CryptoPunks, yep. I'd love to explain it all to you guys, but, uh, I have no idea how to.
37:27
I think Ma- Matto has a couple of those, I believe, CryptoPunks. Matt Brown? Yeah. Really? Is he, uh, owning a soccer team? [laughs] No, no, no, no, no, just a couple CryptoPunks. I have a, uh, tennis play, by the way.
37:37
Uh, but- Tennis play... Braves minus 285 to win the series. Yeah, see, no. I'm gonna, I'm gonna do it game by game. I'm gonna do it game by game. I'm gonna, uh... This is, they're $2 favorites tonight.
37:47
I'm gonna p- I'm not gonna do anything with that game, and if somehow Cleveland wins, then I'll, then again, you've not hedged at that point, and we'll take one more game not hedging.
37:58
And then if they lose that one, then we'll do it for game three, that kind of thing. So I'll just prolong it as much as I can, but I promise you we'll lock in a profit. Um, so here's the deal.
38:06
So we're about to hit our tennis highs. The hard court season was unbelievable. Uh, up 26 units in hard court season. And then clay, uh, we're sort of spinning our wheels here in tennis.
38:16
All of the picks of every host, every guest, in every sport at vsi.com/picks. And then a couple days ago when we were in that DraftKings meeting, I'm watching a score [laughs] about to hit the season high.
38:26
She gaks, Anna Bogdan gaks a match point, and we lose that match. And then ever since then, it's like four or five matches in a row now, like it's a handful of matches where I have not won. So we're off our season high.
38:39
Hmm. Uh, so I'm almost hesitant to give this 'cause it's like, okay, why hasn't this worked out this week in Madrid?
38:44
But I do have one more play today, and it's one of those where if we win it, we're back to only being three units behind the, uh, the season high. Um, so instead of 26 right now, we're at 21 units to the positive.
38:54
Uh, I am on Mariano Navone. Mariano Navone. He's an Argentine. He's a great clay court player. He has great clay court numbers. He's plus 193. I got him at two to one.
39:06
I got him at plus 200 last night, vsi.com/picks, but he's at plus 193, still very much playable against Holger Rune. [laughs] Kelly's favorite player. [laughs] Do they still have all the names listed? Yep.
39:19
No, I mean, not in every place. We've, we've chopped down. [laughs] Did I say them in the proper order? I'm curious. I think you did. I'm trying to find the, the match right now. Oh, no, I said them in the wrong order.
39:28
Holger Rune. Dr- DraftKings has gone to just the two names. But- Most, most have. Yeah. But I'm never gonna just say the two names. Um, so the play is on Mariano Navone at plus 193.
39:41
Again, I got him at plus 200 last night for subscribers at vsi.com/picks. That's the play, and that starts, scheduled to start, you know how tennis tournaments work, in about 30 minutes. Plus 205 over at DraftKings.
39:52
Oh, there you go. Okay. So you can even get a better number. Um, NBA, the only... We didn't talk about last night because the series between the Nuggets and, and Lakers is over, y'all. It's over.
40:02
No one has ever come back from a three to nothing deficit in the history of the NBA to win a playoff series.
40:07
Remember, the Celtics got close last year against the Heat, but, uh, they got stomped in game seven at home [laughs] against the Heat. Um, it's not happening.
40:15
The Denver Nuggets are on the cusp of pulling off a second consecutive playoff sweep in two consecutive years against the LA Lakers.
40:22
And I just wanna say this, that Lakers got out to a lead yesterday, not quite the big lead like they did in the first two games, but when the draft was petering out yesterday, and so then I think we all turned to the game,
40:34
Denver wasn't exactly playing great in the fourth quarter. Like, the Lakers had all the chances in the world, and there was just nothing. Yeah. Nothing there.
40:42
AD after game two killing Darvin Ham without saying his name, like, "Yes, there's a bunch of times, uh, a bunch of times we didn't, uh, for stretches where we didn't know what we're doing on either side of the court."
40:53
Um, Lakers are done. We, we said before the playoffs, Kelly, that this Western Conference playoffs could be epic. It has not been at all. No. With the exception of the Clippers and the Mavs being knotted up.
41:03
Let, let, let's give it a little time. Okay. Let's give it a little time. You're right. It's, it's early, but I'm just saying. Phoenix could turn, too. I, I, I think that could turn into a series. Maybe.
41:10
I'm hoping it turns into a series 'cause I got over five and a half games. Let's put it this way. This isn't the start we expected. This has been...
41:16
I mean, we have, we have one that's 3-0, two that's 2-0, and we do have the Clippers and the Mavericks 1-1-1.
41:21
I would just suggest that the Eastern Conference with the Sixers and the Knicks, and some would say the Pacers and the Bucks, I won't because there's no Giannis, but I will say to me still, the Heat and the Celtics is still the headline grabber for me.
41:34
Like, I'm more excited for that- Oh, totally, yeah... than anything. I mean, we talked about that yesterday, right? It's amazing how one win- It's incredible... could just change, you change everything about that series.
41:44
And I don't, that's not even just the fans' mindset. That has to be, that has to be in the Celtics' minds right now, too. Of course.
41:51
Like, you roll in the playoffs with all that confidence, and then you take one loss at home against the Miami Heat, and we are right back to where we've been so many times before. All right. The early game.
42:00
By the way, oh, we, we also got a, uh, tweet from, uh, PAW, who's like, "Oh, the reason that there's an early, uh, NBA game," he says, "is because of the NFL draft tonight."
42:08
I go, "Yeah, but then why wasn't it yesterday?" We don't care as much about the second round of the N- of the N- NFL draft. Yesterday they should've been an early game, like you said. Oh, yeah. All right.
42:16
Tonight, or this afternoon, then, the early game is the Pacers. Pacers are six-point favorites against the Bucks. Game three, series knotted up at one apiece. Total 223 and a half. Any play? Nothing for me on that one.
42:26
Middleton is questionable if you are looking at betting this, um, and I think seriously questionable 'cause this line has mo- gotten, you know, pa- uh, through the five up to the six, um, here on the Pacers.
42:37
It, I mean, it, sidewise, it'd be Pacers or, uh, Pacers or pass for me. Um, but not- nothing in that game.
42:43
Um, Clippers Mavericks, I'm just gon- I was considering putting a game bet in on that one tonight on the Mavericks side, but no Tim Hardaway Jr. tonight. Not great. He is out, uh, with an injury.
42:53
That is not- Mavs favored by four and a half in game three. That series knotted up at one a piece. Yeah, Gafford also questionable for them. That, that's gonna be interesting to watch how those injuries play out.
43:02
Tim Hardaway Jr., for as much as, uh, I might have ripped on him during the year or if for, uh, you know, six-man consideration and him not really belonging with some of the other guys I thought, he's still one of the very few guys on the Mavericks roster not named Luka Dončić or Kyrie Irving that can score, that can score consistently.
43:19
So him not being in is kind of fascinating. I did play a, uh, I played a Luka 40-plus point prop at, like, three to one just I think coming back home. Lot...
43:30
Again, no Tim Hardaway Jr., a lot of the scoring's gonna have to fall on Luka and Kyrie. So I did play that in that game. I'd lean to the Mavericks side still though in that.
43:39
Suns four-point favorites trying to get off the schneid against the T-Wolves. I, I don't, I don't know how you can back the Suns right now. I'm hoping they pull it out.
43:47
I'll be rooting for them 'cause I got that series bet over five and a half games. Um, man, I, Timberwolves just looking real strong so far. So I, uh, it, it's gonna be interesting.
43:55
Is this a classic NBA playoffs, come home, everything turns around, you got veteran players like K- uh, like Kevin Durant, like Devin Booker able to take care of business?
44:04
I'm kind of expecting that, but I'm not betting on it. You laying the three with the Nuggets tomorrow, game four closeout? I am. I am. I'm glad you brought that up 'cause I'm, I'm going to.
44:11
I know, I think we said gentleman's sweep yesterday. Yeah, maybe not. I think LeBron, AD have thrown in the towel. Let's just call it over. Are you taking the nine with the Heat in game three? No. Okay.
44:20
No, I'm just gonna be a Heat fan. What'd I say? I'm not betting on them or against them. That's right, 'cause I'm gonna crawl across this table and slap you in the neck. That's right. [laughs] You told me I could.
44:26
Let's go Mariano Navone. Let's go Guardians. GoJoinGolick are next. Enjoy.
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