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Apr 27, 2026
A Numbers Game | April 27, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 27, 2026 | Hour 2
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45:22
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM Channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Hey.
0:27
On this Monday morning, post draft, pre-Derby, the hits just keep on coming. Well, we got, we got Dinzik, Dinzik tomorrow, Somich on Wednesday. Gonna try to do a Felica, um, [tsking]
0:43
I'm gonna try to do a Felicus- You doing a Derby pod? Well, no, I don't... That's a great question. You know I- You should... you know I used to do Derby pods. You should. Why?
0:50
Why are you trying to get me to do a Derby pod? That's a g- that's a good one. Yeah. [laughs] Well, I mean, I, I don't, if you don't wanna do it, don't do it, but you've got great, you've got great horse guests.
0:57
I do have great horse guests. It's very true. And horse racing guests. And horse racing guests. [laughs] That's right. Um, yeah.
1:06
Well, Somich might be a little busy this week, that's kind of on top, don't- Well, no, I don't know. It's gonna, it's, um, you know. You could always grab Drew and Felica.
1:13
I could always grab Drew and Felica, but you know what, you know what I think I'm gonna ask.
1:17
I don't, I just, I don't know if people have time, but I have in, in, uh, in addition to, uh, in addition to Felica, of course, I have, um,
1:27
uh- Yeah, Danny did a great job last week of, uh, making sure we got out, uh, got out in, got out in front of it with Mike Somich, got him on the books early. Yeah. I could do a Felica Fornatale Derby pod.
1:39
That might work. We'll see if Chris has time. Be Chris, Chris Felica time pending.
1:43
By the way, one, one, uh, time, uh, time willing, one, one other thing on Defensive Rookie of the Year, Danny Higgins, who often fills in when Kelly is not here, uh, our producer, Danny Higgins. Danny.
1:54
Danny, shout out for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. You know who he's thinking about betting on?
1:58
Jacob Rodriguez of the Dolphins, who we listed at 25 to 1 at DraftKings, but you can find him even longer, and his, uh, his reasoning, tackling machine, just like Schlesinger was, or Schlesinger. Schlesinger.
2:12
Everyone pronounce it- Harrison Schlesinger. Yeah. So Jacob Rodriguez, shout out from Danny Higgins for, uh, Defensive Rookie of the Year. We got tweets to Beating The Book.
2:18
Jesse Welch, uh, had tweeted earlier, "Jesse, I'm reading all of your tweets, and I'm, and those that you're sending back and forth with Chance Copperpot. Again, our deepest condolences on the passing of your father."
2:28
Um, people chiming in to Jesse, really nice listeners chiming in on, on Jesse's, um, sad news of the day, so just the best listeners in the game for all kinds of reasons.
2:40
Real Knicks, "I called a hot tub a Jacuzzi for 40 years until my ex and I bought one and realized that it was a brand name. What's worse, first time in, like in it, I got water in my ear and needed a Q-tip to get it out.
2:52
LOL." [laughs] Yeah. Again, brands that are so, um, identifiable with the product that in our lexicon we have, we almost use them interchangeably.
3:05
Jacuzzi, Kleenex, Xerox, Q-tip, these are not what the, these are not what they actually are. Kleenex is a tissue. Xerox is something that made copies.
3:14
But the brands were so pervasive that they became associated with the product itself. Uh, Xavier82, "Good morning, Gil. So post NFL draft, which particular wagers saved your draft this year?
3:24
Day one for me, it was Chris Johnson, second quarterback taken. Day two was Carson Beck, drafted by Arizona, plus 450 for me." Look at that humble brag on Carson Beck, plus 450 for Xavier82.
3:33
Xavier, my draft didn't need saving. I won five and a half units. It was a great draft for me, so no saving needed.
3:39
It wasn't like the, uh, Derek Stingley to the Texans at three or Joe Alt to the Chargers at five saving drafts. Yeah, you had what? A couple, like two to three to ones, but nothing like crazy long.
3:49
You just hit most of your bets. Yeah, I hit most of my bets. Yep. And there was, you know, good $2, $3 dogs in there. Mm-hmm. Yeah.
3:56
Disc Golfer, "A wise person told me," my mom, he says, "that generic brands work 99% of the time, but always get name brand Q-tips," he says. That's good advice. Thanks, Mom. Thanks to your mom- Hmm... Disc Golfer.
4:08
Bobby Gettys, "I know we say if you could look at one stat in an NBA game and guess the outcome, it would be three-point shooting, not according to Sir Charles Barkley. You see this last night?" [laughs] I, I heard this.
4:17
No, I didn't. He said, "Rebounds and turnovers. Gotta love 'em," [laughs] says Bobby Gettys. Yeah. I can't think of anything more deceptive than rebounds in an NBA game, uh, in terms of a box score.
4:28
Chance Copperpot, "Talk about Q-tips and not Q-tip. Not a very vibrant thing coming from the young Gillionaire." Yeah. The, the- Hmm...
4:36
theme of the, uh, Beating The Book podcast for all these years, and Betting Dork before that, Q-tips, vibrant thing. You knew that, Kelly. I did.
4:44
Brian Piercy, "Tri-," uh, "Tried off-brand Q-tips one time, felt like a fork in my ear." [laughs] A fork. You know what? That's all I've needed to hear on this story. That's great. I'm n- I'm never going off-brand.
4:57
A fork. Brian M., "I would think Mendoza won't be the favorite until he starts. Book's probably thinking the Kirk Cousins experience coming to Vegas could take some time to derail." That's interesting,
5:10
that now that, is that the pr- is that the prevailing sentiment that Cousins is starting in game one? No, I don't. I don't, I don't believe that's my prevailing sentiment. I don't think so. Yeah.
5:18
I, I, I think he's just saying, I, I think maybe he's just saying wait till it's like official- Yeah... official, official. Yeah, that's probably right. And- I, I, I don't know, though. I don't know.
5:27
Maybe it's some of that, Gil, but I think it's a lot of just like this is a running back drafted third overall. He's gotta be great, right? Like they're gonna give it to him every way possible.
5:35
Oh, Colin Murphy, "Would Vinnie Meatballs do the Derby pod? Guy's very sharp on the ponies." Vinnie Maliulo, Vinnie Maolio. There you go. Or Vinnie Meatballs. I don't know, maybe, maybe my sp- Chrissy wants to do it.
5:47
We'll see. I'll make some, I'll make some queries. Supposed to have dinner with Chrissy this week. We'll find out. All right, this is the, uh... Oh, before I do the baseball thing, did you wanna say your Jokic thing?
5:56
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. The one, so this has been crazy. Uh, Nikola Jokic, as we've talked about, struggling in this, uh, in these playoffs- Struggling... with Rudy Gobert, uh, guarding him.
6:08
Um, a lot has been made of that. His three-point shooting with Jokic, it is- It's terrible... it was a question kind of coming in about, okay, and we, I mean, we've talked about it ever since he came back, right?
6:19
We knew he rushed back from injury. Was there s- was there lingering issues? And there's been multiple injuries that have been kind of murmured here over the past, like, few weeks.
6:29
But man, the, the shooting and inability from downtown to hit a shot has really become incredible. And we finally saw in the last game him really just kind of stop. He, he only took three.
6:41
Finally went 0 for 3 in 41 minutes on Saturday's game. Or this is how his series has gone: 0 for three, two for 10- [laughs]... one for seven- Yeesh... two for seven. Nikola Jokic hasn't made...
6:55
He's had one game where he's made more than two three-pointers since the beginning of March. Uh, let's say they get bounced here one of these next three games by the T-Wolves. Is the
7:07
really brain-dead, "He's only won one championship," crowd gonna start rearing its head? Like, the Jokic detractor crowd will be like, "Hey, how good can he be if he's only won one championship?"
7:18
Which is completely unfair, 'cause he's not surrounded by players. Yeah. Right? But it's like- No, I don't, I don't know. I mean, I don't know. It's probably b- it's been unfair probably with most people in the past.
7:28
Yeah. So he's- Yeah, he'll probably be all right. I mean, he's had Ja Morant. Like, I, I- Yeah. Only won with him, yeah... so there's a lot, a lot of guys that have, haven't had a Ja Morant- Oh, listen...
7:36
that have gotten that tag. Listen, Barkley and Ewing is always the final part of the sentence, right? But they never won a championship. So anyways, uh, real quick, five for 27 from three in this entire series.
7:46
I'm staring at a one and a half going under tonight. I mean, he al- I, like, la- I think last game he was finally like, "This is bad for me to keep chucking these up." So you think it's in his head?
7:55
Oh, I think it's i- I think it's in his head, his wrist, whatever's going on. Yeah.
7:58
But last game finally pulling the rip cord on even trying, I, might be a good enough, uh, sign for me to go under one and a half tonight. You're getting, like, plus 125.
8:06
I was ho- I was hoping it was gonna be two and a half, 'cause he's still putting up a lot of attempts. But, uh, one and a half at plus money I might be betting. Under. Yeah. Okay. Uh, okay.
8:14
As far as, uh, the Reds betters. Red Legs betters. Cincinnati Red Legs. For those who, uh, rode the Reds train with me here, March, April, let's update the standings. Here's where we are.
8:25
This is the March, April standings, which by the way, of course, is just the normal MLB standings at the beginning of the year when we do it at the start of the year.
8:31
So March, April, the Braves have the best record in all of baseball. Braves just, they took two out of three from the Phillies over the weekend. By the way, Phillies, just no account baseball team.
8:41
Though they did win on Saturday. But the Braves are 20 and nine with a plus 65 run differential. Oh, by the way, all these teams, these are the only six teams that have a shot now. This is it. Oh, okay. All right.
8:52
Everybody else mathematically eliminated. These are the only six teams now with three games left. Oh, I did not check this over the weekend. I actually thought you were in a worse spot, okay?
9:00
Oh, no, no, no, I'm not in a... I'm... It's- We're live, baby. We're live. We're, let's put it this way. Let's go. We're, we're live for a dead heat. I don't know if we're live for an outright anymore.
9:08
Yeah, it's probably gonna be- Yesterday the Braves won and the Reds lost. We were looking really good up until then, but the Reds, uh- The Reds-...
9:14
the Reds bullpen, which had the best ERA in all of baseball, might still by the way, but they had the best ERA in baseball heading into yesterday's game. Finally they got got. Tigers got to them late.
9:24
So Braves are 20 and nine. The Dodgers, who actually have a run differential of two runs better than the Braves, are 19 and nine. They're in second place. They're plus 67.
9:34
Now remember, there's no tiebreakers in the March/April. This is just, it will just come down to wins. But those, those run differentials will come into play when we talk about April only.
9:44
But in March/April, Braves 20 and nine, Dodgers 19 and nine, Padres now, Yankees, and our Reds. Padres, Yankees, and Reds all have 18 wins. Cubbies mathematically still alive at 17 and 11.
9:57
Now, uh, the Braves and the Reds are idle today. They do not play. Reds, uh, Braves and Reds start their final three-game set in the month of April tomorrow. The Braves are hosting the Tigers.
10:10
Our Reds are hosting the Rockies for a three-game set. The handicap of the Reds was always the schedule, was always the pitching, was always, and we get to s- we get to finish with the Rockies.
10:20
By the way, Rockies much better than expected at the beginning of the year. Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Cubs all play tonight. Padres and Cubs start their three-game set against each other tonight.
10:31
So they'll take care of each other. I think the Padres will. Unless the Padres sweep, we won't have to worry about them in terms of scoreboard watching.
10:38
Dodgers sadly start a three-game [laughs] set with the Marlins tonight, who I believe are the $3 favorites. We're gonna... So basically what we're gonna need, by the way, the Yankees. Who do the Yankees play?
10:47
Oh, they're at the Rangers. Yeah, Rangers. So I think the, I think, I think the Yankees, I think the Rangers can take one from the Yankees. So basically to get a dead heat, here's what we need.
10:55
Reds need to sweep the Rockies. Dodgers need to go two and one at best. And then the, the real tough one is the Braves have to go one and two at best against the Tigers. Well, here's- Which is possible.
11:08
All that's possible. If all that happens, we, we dead heat with those two teams. Yeah. Which is no shot. Hey, we got a shot. Yeah, we got a shot at that. It's s- I don't know. An outright is, would be miraculous.
11:16
But a, but a dead heat seems realistic. Don't worry, Gil, I've got you covered. I've gotten it figured out. Rockies at the Reds.
11:22
You just play the Rockies on the run line every game because the Reds just win every game by one run. You hit the game bet on the run line, take the run and a half. Your Reds bet still gets home. You cash everything.
11:33
There he is. Betting's really easy. It's really simple. Really s- By the way, here you're April only in case you bet at, at Circa, where tiebreakers of fewest losses and run differential does come into play.
11:45
The Padres and the Braves are vying for that title. Padres 17 and five, Braves 17 and seven. Everybody else on the outside looking in. So Could be interesting. Braves trying to take both of these.
11:57
We'll come back, Wes Reynolds will join us next on the Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:07
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12:15
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12:23
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:39
Ladies and gentlemen, we got ourselves a podcast that I think you ought to know about. It's the VSiN Daily Diamond podcast. This is, uh, Jensen and Dave. Jensen Lewis, Dave Ross.
12:50
I'm not sure if you're familiar with, uh, Jensen Lewis and Dave Ross, Kelly Bilin? Jensen, former ballplayer. Oh, really? Uh, Dave Ross, Captain America. Real, like actual Captain America?
13:00
They're, they're the co-hosts of a little show called By the Books that precedes us here every morning.
13:04
And, uh, they do a segment called the VSiN, they, they do a segment called The Daily Diamond, which is now packaged as a podcast. They break down the Major League Baseball slate every single day, one game at a time.
13:15
Available on your favorite podcast platform. Love it. Good-looking graphic. Good-looking graphic. What would you call that? A, uh, a, like a sepia tone kinda graphic right there? Sure. Sure. Okay.
13:26
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, Wes Reynolds joins us. He sh- I don't even know what that means... what'd you say? I, I don't even know what that means. Oh. Sepia toned?
13:32
You know, like, uh, pictures that, like, have a brownish kind of- Oh... hue to them- Okay... kind of thing. Yeah. Then yes. It's like we're, it's like we're teaching, uh, it's like we're teaching seventh grade over here.
13:41
I found one problem, though. What? Breaking down the slate, period. One game at a time. No period. No punctuation. Wow. Okay. Wow. We are, we're like grammar police over here. No one, no one likes a grammar stickler.
13:53
That's what we're being. Florida State English degree, baby. [laughs] Is that what you got? Your degree in English? Yeah, I, I have an English degree from Florida State University, yes. That's useful. Sad, right?
14:01
What a useful degree that is.
14:02
Uh, we l- West joins us for two segments, uh, every day, or every Monday I should say, on this show, and we decided that today we were just, for the two segments, we're just gonna let Kelly and Wes live on air hash out when they're going to record Long Shots.
14:15
[laughs] So here's Wes Reynolds, everybody, on the show courtesy of Progressive Best Line. How does this go every week for you guys? You guys have a negotiation? There's not a set time, Wes?
14:23
There's usually a set time, Gil. Yeah. There usually is. Just, just don't ask me about any, uh, graphic design, uh, analysis or criticism, uh, with fonts and, uh- Yeah... punctuation and whatnot.
14:35
Uh, I let the professionals take care of that. Okay. Well, good. I was just talking about my, uh, my March/April bet. You're a, you're a Cincinnati Reds fan, Wes? That's, is that correct, yes?
14:45
That i- that is my boyhood team. Uh, the triple A affiliate was the Indianapolis Indians, so- Oh... we would get the Reds in every year, the glory years of the Reds.
14:52
So we'd get Pete Rose and Barry Larkin and, uh, and some of those guys. Uh, Lou Piniella as manager, who went into the Reds Hall of Fame, uh, this weekend in Cincinnati.
15:02
And, uh, uh, they're off to a much better start because I'm always discouraged by them, and I'm always like, "Sell the team, Bob."
15:09
Uh, that's the m- the, uh, saying on Twitter with, uh, owner Bob Castellini, that maybe the Reds aren't wanting to win as much as certainly that passionate fan base in Cincinnati is.
15:21
But they're off to a very good start this year, and we were talking over break, uh, Sal Stewart has been an absolute revelation- Yes... and I think has been like a, a real power, uh, output in that lineup.
15:31
Elly De La Cruz, he'll still strike out a fair amount, but he's drawing more walks. So he is starting to be a little bit more of a disciplined hitter. Don't get me wrong, he's still a free swinger a little bit.
15:42
But when you've got guys like Matt McClain, he had two homers on Friday night, and he's not gonna give you a very good average. But there's power in that lineup.
15:50
Obviously playing in that ballpark, you're gonna produce runs. Uh, you know, it's not, it's not the biggest park in the big leagues for sure.
15:57
But the bullpen, as you mentioned, Gil, has been one of the best in baseball so far, and they've had to be because that starting pitching- Oof...
16:05
has been, uh, ir- erratic, uh, I guess is a fair word, uh, to say the least. Uh, Andrew Abbott's just been terrible all around. Brandon Williamson walks too many guys. Chase Burns still has dominant stuff.
16:16
And of course, uh, Hunter Greene, uh, not part of the rotation currently with the injury. But it's been an encouraging start, so I'm gonna enjoy it while it lasts for the Red Legs. Yeah.
16:25
Um, Chase Burns goes in the first of the three games against the Rockies, uh, tomorrow, and then it's God help us with the other guys. But it's, you're, you're so right about Williamson and Abbott.
16:34
The other thing about this bet, besides trying to win it, right?
16:38
And we are one of these, the final six teams remaining, and our Reds bet here at 35 to 1 to try to cash this, is that these monthly bets in baseball not only lock you into the Major League Baseball season, but they, they get you to know a team intimately- Mm...
16:53
for 30 days. So there is nothing about the Reds, right, that I'm not aware of based on daily lineups, their rotation, their bullpen, all that kind of stuff, how Terry Francona manages.
17:03
And so if you do this six times a year, maybe it's six different teams, uh, it's a, it's a great way to take in Major League Baseball as well. I do think you're, you know, bringing up Hunter Greene, though.
17:13
The absence of Hunter Greene, which was confirmed right after I made the bet, might be the difference between us cashing this and not cashing this.
17:21
Like, it could, it could very well, there's no way I can prove this, right? But it could very well end up being that and that alone that prevented the cashing of this Reds ticket.
17:31
Again, two wins behind the Braves with three to play. Uh, the NFL draft was last week, Wes. We never really got to talk about that.
17:40
Um, let's do a little, a sports talk radio, but maybe there's some betting involved in this as well. What were your react- what were your big takeaways? What were the big headlines for you?
17:48
Well, I, I thought a couple of, of the poor teams, obviously, that have some poor reputations in terms of drafting in recent years actually had very good drafts.
17:57
I thought the Raiders, I thought John Spytek You know, by and large nailed it, uh, uh, wi- with their draft. I think the Raider fans and Raider Nation should be very encouraged.
18:06
I think the Jets had a very good draft, uh, and, and they certainly need it.
18:11
So you would expect that these teams are gonna have good drafts, but I think kind of the, I guess, holistic picture of it, and what I finally I think first noticed, and maybe it was starting to be pronounced over the last couple years, 'cause we've certainly seen it in basketball because you have many less players drafted, but we're starting to see I think the NIL factor now in college football.
18:33
You're starting to see more guys stay in college that would ordinarily be early entry guys.
18:39
So I feel like the sec- like, not even just the first round, but I feel like the second and the third round were much stronger in years past. And now this time around, because- Interesting. Yeah...
18:49
you have less prospects, you have some more reaches early on in the second and third round. 'Cause what do they say? The championships are always won on the second day, or that's at least the cliche that goes around.
19:00
But I think that you're starting to see that now, and I think you're maybe starting to see more teams reach a little bit because that talent pool just isn't as deep now with some of these early...
19:11
'Cause some of the early entry kids will be like, "Okay, I know I'm not in the first round, but I'm gonna be in early entry. I know I'm gonna be drafted in a pretty secure spot."
19:18
And you're just not seeing that anymore because all these teams have to spend money so they stay in college now.
19:25
I'm curious about this, and this falls sort of right into your wheelhouse, which is, you know, then when folks do the sort of, uh, au- autopsy on the draft, one of the ways they measure is based on a consensus of mocks which GMs overperformed projections, right?
19:42
Mm-hmm. And which GM underperformed. So Washington and Carolina, I saw one big graphic, Washington and Carolina were said to have done the best in terms of out-drafting the consensus, getting value that is.
19:55
And I think even beyond this metric, uh, the team that is being roundly criticized is the San Francisco 49ers, who with Dejon Str- uh, Dejon Stribling as, as the first pick of the second round, wide receiver of Ole Miss, that was considered largely like a massive stretch.
20:11
And, um, Kaylon Black, your guy from Indiana, the running back who was, uh, the second pick that the Niners had in the third round, he was considered a reach as well. Do you consider him a reach?
20:24
Well, I'm a little bit biased here obviously, [laughs] Gil, because he's from my alma mater- Yeah... and they won a national championship.
20:30
And he also, by the way, was the first player that was drafted that was not a combine, combine invite. Yes, correct.
20:36
He was not invited to the scouting combine in Indianapolis, but he had a very good Senior Bowl, uh, down there in Mobile, and kinda raised a couple eyes where it's like, eyebrows, where it's like, okay, he's gonna be drafted.
20:46
But, you know, he was the third running back. I did not expect Kaylon to be the third running back off the board because the first two, I believe, were, were the Notre Dame guys. Yes.
20:56
Uh, uh, Love and, uh, Price at the end of the first round, and I think rightfully so. But, you know, I, I'm not gonna bet against these guys.
21:04
And the thing about, about these Indiana guys is they came, of course, from a lower program that was, uh, early years FCS and then transitioned to D1 into the Sun Belt.
21:14
So these guys are hungry guys, the Kaylon Blacks and the Elijah Serratts and the Aidan Fishers. You know, they were with Signetti at James Madison and then followed him to Indiana.
21:26
So you're gonna get some of these guys, and that's what the fascinating thing is about the draft, 'cause we do these grades immediately. Yep. And I understand for content's sake, but it almost seems absurd, right?
21:36
You know, that we're doing these grades. It's like, hey, sh- show me the report card in five years from now and let's see how many are with the team, how many are starting, how many are contributing.
21:44
But yeah, I guess from a pure power ranking standpoint on a draft board, maybe Black went a lot earlier than I thought. I thought he was gonna be maybe a fourth or fifth rounder.
21:53
Well, let's put it in our currency, which is betting. We were just talking about Offensive Rookie of the Year. Black is 30 to 1. He's actually on the screen, on the screen.
22:01
So he made it into the top 12 here, 12 guys we were able to fit in.
22:06
Um, is there a flyer you would take, or do you feel, uh, as to the betting market as you did in cer- in terms of overall draft assessment, that this is way premature to make a wager?
22:16
Uh, I mean, eh, you know, you could throw a dart if it's a little bit of a longer shot.
22:20
Like for Offensive Rookie of the Year, one guy I would look at, and I'm not being biased here, I just think that he's gonna get a lot more run because they need so much help at that position, Omar Cooper Jr.
22:30
at 18 to 1, uh, for the New York Jets.
22:33
Uh, they still have Garrett Wilson, who's their number one receiver, but Omar Cooper, like, there's nobody standing in his way to be that second starting wide receiver, uh, for the Jets.
22:43
Now, you gotta say, okay, uh, is Geno in this offense gonna put up any numbers? But Cooper Jr. might be the offensive guy a little bit down the board that I would certainly look at.
22:53
And then for defense, you're probably looking at shorter guys like Reuben Bain at plus 550, maybe Caleb Downs, who falls to the Cowboys, who the Giants had two chances to grab- Yep...
23:06
and passed on him, and I think that they made a big mistake there. You would not have gone with Maui Go at 10? Is that how you would've, you would've played it that way? I, I, I think you got Reese early.
23:16
I would've went with Downs though. I just think the- Oh... talent supersedes the position need. And then of course the Cowboys come swooping in. I'm like, "Oh, God, here they come." More with Wes on the other side.
23:26
It's a numbers game right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas.
23:43
Majestic downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Cracking. [laughs] Was crackulating. We got tweets, beauty of the book. NoMUDoug, an elderly gambler.
23:57
I never saw an elderly gambler. I'm just noticing that for the first time. He says, "I live with what I term as grammar Nazis, although you qualify conceptually. I can't use the term for a tribesman."
24:05
Thank you, NoMUDoug. That's very, uh, caring of you. I wanna clutch my pearls Yeah, yeah. Uh, Scott C.: "NBA is an association because at this point..." Oh, this is a great tweet.
24:16
He said, "NBA is an association because at this point it is lightly associated with the game of basketball- [laughs]... we, we used to enjoy." [laughs] I love that. Love that. That's, that's great.
24:26
By the way, I did, I did, uh, I meant, I meant to, forgot to get back to you on the, the AI definition was wonderful earlier when I put, when I punched it in of why is the NBA- Oh, yeah...
24:34
an association, the others are leagues. Bec- And it literally just said because it's an association of teams. That's right. It's like, w- what? It's, uh, that's right.
24:42
So it's like a, but it's a league- Someone, someone explained that... of teams. The other one's just a league of teams. Someone one day when conceiving this was like, "I've got it, an association."
24:52
Super Jerk, I can't read your tweet. Sorry. Though, appreciate the, uh, the sentiment. It's kind of off topic, but okay. Johnny B.: "The draft controversy is all about the Bills pick."
25:01
Oh, yeah, we talked about this earlier, Johnny B. He said, "I had Bills to take linebacker. Took Edwards, which was linebacker/edge. Thankfully," he said, "DraftKings only took a max bet of a whopping $9.36 on it."
25:15
He goes, "Ha ha, they're a joke." Uh, they are. They absolutely are with stuff like that. Sean's Fox Plays: "Lock of the century was Houston winning game four. You got two injured players.
25:26
By losing extends the time that they need to be able to get back. You can also have the same thing tonight as OKC knows the series will be extended, but a loss tonight adds another day to get JWill back."
25:37
It's a little all over the place, but I get what he's saying. He believes there's cons- He, he- I don't. Yeah. I don't, Gil. Okay.
25:43
It's like the Thunder wa- the Thunder wanna lose tonight so that there's a better chance- I-... that Jaylen Williams could be available- I, I, I don't know... for later in this series- It, it-...
25:50
against the Phoenix Suns if necessary... if, if, if that's what he was saying in the second part, then- And, and to push back the second round start, I guess.
25:56
If that's what he was saying in the second part, I would disagree with that, but it's this old school... He took it too far, but it's the old school conspiracy. This is the first part he was saying it.
26:05
You know, it was like, oh. I thought where he was going was broadcast money related. Like, oh, of course they want to extend these series for that. But then he was doing it with injured players.
26:14
It was a little, little weird. I agree. Um- The day after locks. It's amazing. There's always a lock. Just always. Always a lock. Yeah. This golfer's amazed that we read Brian Pierce's fork in his ear comment.
26:30
I like his fork in his ear comment. I have, uh, I've got a couple, I've got a couple ways I wanna transition back to Wes, and I don't know which one to go. Yeah. All right. Go with, let's, let's, give us a choice.
26:37
You wanna go Indiana or you wanna go NBA? I'll take NBA. Okay. So, uh, the one thing we didn't really talk about in that Denver game- Yeah... there's a, there's a... Did you catch what happened at the end of it?
26:48
And the fight- Oh, oh... that ensued? Oh, I'm sorry I didn't even bring that up. And like, we're just, we're, like, we're not even gonna consider suspensions here.
26:55
Okay, so you know- Which I think we all kind of knew, but the, a fight spilled into the crowd.
27:00
So for those who missed this, what Kelly's referring to, I'm glad you brought this up 'cause it's my, my bad for not having done so.
27:05
'Cause I sent you guys a text immediately, right, where I'm like, "If that's Draymond Green, he's not suspended?" That was the text I sent you guys. Or anybody else. Well, he- Now, I don't wanna say that, but yeah.
27:17
Yeah, he's the best example. But maybe it's a bad example 'cause they'll be like, well, Draymond, history of, of doing this stuff. But Nikola Jokic took a dead sprint to Jaden McDaniels- Mm-hmm...
27:28
and made contact with him. That's, we're not even t- considering a suspension for that. It's not even on the table.
27:35
And I don't even care about that part, but it's the usually, it's the part when w- this spills over into the crowd, there's usually suspensions, and we saw it earlier this year.
27:43
I heard the Hoop Collective guys talking about this.
27:45
AJ Mitchell got a suspension for the same sort of thing happening against the Wizards in the regular season, but it's AJ Mitchell and it's the regular season, not Nikola Jokic and not the playoffs. Let's bring in Wes.
27:55
As we bring in Wes, let me say that Brian M says, "Reddit says the NBA is a nod to the ABA." I brought up the American Basketball Association earlier. That pre...
28:02
Yeah, I said the NBA specifically called an association because of its 1949 merger between the Basketball Association of America and the National Basketball League serving as a nostalgic nod. But that's not an answer.
28:11
It's not an answer. An association of associations is what we're going with now? Why, why did the, why did the first Basketball Association of America- Right. Yeah... decide to go with it? Yeah. Right.
28:18
Wes Reynolds joins us now. Wes, these are the burning questions that we try to, uh, get answers to here every morning. It's public service. Um, what about the, uh, Nikola Jokic thing?
28:27
We're not even gonna consider that as a suspension possibility? Yeah. We have superstar rules in, in this league, in the NBA.
28:35
I know that might shock some people, but yeah, Jo- Jokic, uh, McDaniels, uh, of course that was pr- predicated on McDaniels kind of breaking the code, right?
28:45
He laid it in when you're supposed to dribble off the clock- Yeah... and, you know, not run it up. And, uh, Jokic, uh, was old school and did not take too kindly of that. So no suspensions there.
28:55
And then they're probably, it's probably like, you know, uh, uh, arbitrary justice, if you will, in the fact that Minnesota is now down two players, uh, losing Ant Man and losing, uh, uh, Dante DiVincenzo.
29:09
So it's like, are we really gonna drop the hammer where it feels like we're against this team, you know, w- with, with this thing? So, so maybe that was a little bit of a part of it.
29:19
And, uh, uh, that's actually an angle I'm playing a little bit in the game tonight. Uh, Ayo Dosunmu, of course, had 43, the game of his life, and he's a quality backup player. The Bulls kind of gave up on him.
29:31
So all my Chicago friends are like, "Oh my God, I can't believe we gave up on this guy. We always knew this guy could do it." And then he, he does it in a, uh, clutch situation where they needed to.
29:41
But now his point total, by the way, tonight is 20 and a half. Hmm. And it was 11 and a half previously. Yeah. Now he's going to get more minutes. That's priced in. It was 11 and a half in game number three on Saturday.
29:52
He has 43. So it's kinda like on principle alone, you know, you, you ki- you wanna fade that. You wanna go to the under. Now, have they priced it enough to get you involved?
30:04
And that's the ultimate question if you wanna bet it. I think at 20 and a half, juice the under, and I'm seeing like 20 and a half, uh, minus $1.20 to the under.
30:13
That's where I'm gonna go with because it's gonna have to be by committee To fill in for Ant-Man and for, uh, DiVincenzo. So Bones Hyland certainly is gonna get more run. Naz Reid is gonna get more run.
30:26
Uh, Mike Conley is gonna have to be involved a little bit more in the offense even though he doesn't score a lot. But you're gonna have to see multiple guys make up for that.
30:35
So I think maybe you get a little bit of an inflation on Desonmu here tonight. Okay, so under from Wes, 20 and a half on, uh, Ayo Dosunmu's point total.
30:45
I, I will say it again because I don't want it to just g- get sort of s- you know, take it out into the, uh, to the ether. But Mike Breen was right. That was a masterpiece. 43 points on 13 of 17 shooting.
30:57
Five for five from behind the arc, 12 of 12 from the stripe. W- I don't even know what the equivalent- It was incredible...
31:03
I don't even know what the equivalent to that performance is from a guy who, you know, you're not expecting. By the way, he led them in scoring in game three as well. He, he is a very- Yeah...
31:12
good player in the final year of his deal at age 26, and I heard someo- I saw someone tweeting about this last night. There are warnings for this though in the past.
31:20
Jordan Poole got a massive contract off of- [laughs]... a very short run of success. And Jordan Poole's numbers beforehand were better than what Ayo's have been so far.
31:30
So this might be really interesting to see where we go out of this season, Gil. Yeah. Well, I don't know. You were, that's a, that's a good, that's an interesting comp.
31:38
Although Jordan Poole doesn't, didn't seem to ever have his... He didn't seem to get it. Well, yeah. How can I- Easier to say now though, right? No, even at the time. He got it, right? Right.
31:47
He got it right in the face from, uh- Hey... Draymond Green, so. Well done, Wes. So he did get it in some kind of way. Well done, Wes. Well done. [laughs] Stepped right into that one. Oh, man. Uh, okay.
31:58
Let me, uh, w- first of all, what was the Indiana transition to Wes? Oh, I just wanted to recap rookie of the year from last segment.
32:04
So that was, uh, Wes' favorite for rookie of the year are Fernando Mendoza, Omar Cooper Jr., and Caleb Black. Anything those guys have, no, I'm just, I'm throwing in Fernando. He did mention him. Um,
32:15
we'll, we'll, we'll let that one slide, Wes. All right. You have a prop in baseball today as well, right? I do. Uh, uh, it is Minnesota and Seattle. Short baseball slate, by the way, uh, on a Monday. It's a travel day.
32:27
I went with Connor Prelip over strikeouts. Four and a half, uh, the juice is kinda gonna vary, but, uh, he's pitching for the Twins tonight. Had his first outing, uh, you know, has got a really good slider.
32:39
Like, at least that's an out pitch. Like, we see guys that, you know, don't really have that third strike pitch where you can get it out. Like, I, I think that that's what he's gonna use against Seattle.
32:50
And S- Seattle is kind of a free swinging team. If you look up and down that lineup, when you, lineup, when you got Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez and those guys, this is a little bit of a free swinging team.
33:02
They like to hit for power. So you can get a lot of whiffs, uh, with, with that slider. So I liked Connor Prelip over four and a half strikeouts tonight. Okay. Little baseball prop in addition to the basketball prop.
33:14
Um, and if I said to you, last thing here before you leave, if I said to you, "Give me the two teams in the NBA finals," 'cause it occurs to me as we go back, you know, we talk about the T-Wolves and the injuries.
33:23
If the T-Wolves can figure out a way to win one of these last three games against the Nuggets, boy, the Spurs, assuming they get through their series against the Blazers,
33:32
the whole thing about the Spurs and, you know, not playing players in that last game, so they were facing a two, three series with the Nuggets.
33:40
All of a sudden now they get this semifinals, conference semifinal series against a banged up T-Wolves team, and it's sorta like, wow, this played right into their hands. Mm-hmm.
33:52
Uh, who's in the NBA finals right now, Wes, if I, if I had, uh, if I asked you to guess? I, I still think Thunder in the West, and I agree with Kelly's point earlier. No, they're going for the throat.
34:02
They're not gonna do this gentleman's sweep thing to wait for J Dub. They're, they're gonna step on Phoenix, uh, tonight, I believe. And then in the East, oof. Who knows? The East sucks. The East is kinda hard.
34:13
They suck. It's kinda hard. I, I'm still gonna say Boston though. Me too. I still think, even though the three point variants could get them. Celtics, Spurs, come on. Make it happen. Thank you, Wes.
34:23
Appreciate it very much. You bet, guys. Thank you. Wes Reynolds, everybody. Coming back on A Numbers Game.
34:28
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:43
Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas. Gil, Kelly, and tweets. We appreciate them always. BeesBets, "As a Nuggets fan, let's be honest," he says.
34:54
"Jokic's full on sprint towards McDaniels isn't really all that fast. Had McDaniels not been chirping about the defense earlier, doubt that happens." Oh, you're, you're right about all that, BeesBets. All of it.
35:05
Still the point remains, if it were somebody else, would they be suspended? Mm-hmm. Yeah. The, the, uh, I am like, I'm also so sick and tired of, in almost every sport, the unwritten rule stuff. Oh, yeah.
35:17
Like, Jokic, you got, uh, like, like you got your ass kicked. You've gotten your ass kicked in three games against this team. Sorry. He gets to, he gets to g- le- do whatever fancy layups or dunks he wants on you. Yeah.
35:30
It's what you deserve. Stop him. You wa- you wanna stop him? Stop him on the defensive end. Minky Monkey Man, "When Kelly referenced his English degree from FSU it reminded me of a family story.
35:42
My sister attended a prestigious New England institution, but insisted on studying anthropology, much to the chagrin of my pops, who was paying." [laughs] My dad had a, uh, my dad had a line about- Oh, man...
35:53
liberal arts colleges. My dad, who's an engineer- Yeah... and he believed in having a trade and that kind of thing. Which is, which is why the other son was, that, that's the one he was proud of.
36:01
No, you know, I'm kidding. Um, but, uh, he used to say about liberal arts colleges, he'd be, he'd go, "What a bull..." [laughs] And, and he wouldn't finish that sentence. Fine. Uh, BWP, Bi-Week Picks.
36:12
This is a really good list. He did a great job. He said, "Things you cannot go generic on in addition to Q-tips: ketchup-... ranch dressing, and aluminum foil. Completely agree. I, I, I, I'm, I'm with him.
36:24
I didn't realize I had str- such strong opinions on this, but absolutely. Well- I'm going Heinz ketchup every day.
36:30
I think if you're buying ketchup in a store, yes, but I believe there are better ketchups at certain, like, fast food restaurants. Oh, we just talked about this the other week. Yeah. Yeah, okay. That's fair.
36:39
There, there are some outstanding ketchups in some of these places. Yeah, if I'm going to, I'm going to the grocery store though, it's Heinz. Yes, I agree with that.
36:45
And then you just tap on the 57 and the ketchup comes pouring out. There you go. And then, and then- And then ranch, like, you know what? I've messed around with some of the other ranches, but it's still Hidden Valley.
36:53
Hidden Valley's still got the best. Hidden Valley. They got the best. It's... Uh, other, other products that, uh, whose, whose brands were so powerful they became synonymous with the actual product itself, widespread.
37:06
Google, right? Google's one of those, I guess- Mm-hmm... in the online era. Mm-hmm. You had to call. Um, Band-Aids. Band-Aids. Mm-hmm. They're bandages are what they are. They're not Band-Aids, right?
37:17
I did add Pepto-Bismol to buy weeks picks list. Pepto-Bismol. I'm not go- I don't go generic Pepto. They've got that formula just right, Gil. Just right. Jell-O. Jell-O. Jell-O pan, brand Pudding Pops. Jell-O.
37:30
It's jelly. Um, and then I think someone older than me would be able to... Isn't Yo-Yo also a brand name? Oh, probably. That became just a, it's a Yo-Yo. What are the, what would you call those things? A Yo-Yo.
37:41
Yeah, but there's, there's actual, a real name for those. Yo-Yo's a brand, I think. A, a- You can't play with my Yo-Yo... a disc dispatcher with a string on it that retracts. [laughs] I believe that is incorrect.
37:54
[laughs] Uh, Minky Monkeyman adds to that story. Says, "On graduation day, my father greeted my excited sister as she walked off the stage with a handshake and a 'Congratulations on your fishing license.'" Yeah, man.
38:05
Yeah, man. I, I took my sweet ass time, five years, and told him to put that diploma in the mail. My mom's got it in a safe somewhere though, I know that much. She ain't letting that thing go. Yeah.
38:14
Uh, shall we go country clubbing? Let's do it. Let's go. [upbeat music] Yeah. Come on, Danny. Hey. Let me see a little more enthusiasm. Come- oh, yeah. Glow stick performance. There we go. There's some more. Okay.
38:29
I don't know who all I got there. Ben Wilson's family. What? Hung out with Ben Wilson a little bit this weekend. Oh, did you? I didn't get a call from him. Hey. Hey, how wa- hey, b- by the way, we, we...
38:39
Can we say this out loud about what, uh, Jonathan Van Tassel organized behind the scenes? Yeah, sure. J- I don't know... JVT, Jonathan Van Tassel, co-host of Money Moves.
38:47
This is very non-cou- this is kind of country clubbing, but not really. Not really. Yeah, no. But it's like, I don't know. My, my, my little buddy Owen, right? Who's on the Buccaneers practice squad.
38:57
Owen wouldn't, as a kid, he wouldn't, he refused to play flag football, 'cause he was like, "I'm a football player." Even when he was like eight-years-old, I was like, "Owen, we're trying to get you in flag football."
39:04
He goes, "I will not play." Yeah. He's like, "I'm a football player. I'm not playing flag football." Anyway, JVT is organized, has organized, I just found this out on Friday. I was, I was that kid, too.
39:11
Worked out a little differently for me and Owen. [laughs] You and Owen, yeah. Uh, JVT, I learned on Friday, has organized, I was not invited by the way, has organized a- You were invited. You were invited on Friday.
39:23
No, no, no. I was not the original group of invi- invitees, therefore I was not invited. There's not an original group. No, there was. And s- and so you, he's forming a v-sin flag football team. Yep.
39:35
And so you guys had a practice. They had a practice. They, flag football doesn't start till September. These guys had a practice on Saturday. Now, here's our ringer, Danny Higgins, who played pro football in Denmark.
39:45
Danny's the quarterback. Mm-hmm. Danny's the quarterback, and so Danny is like, "I still got it," afterward. The league would not exi- Yeah... I mean, the team would not exist- The team would not exist without Danny...
39:53
without Danny. It's all, yeah, it's all- I mean, I'm not playing it unless Danny's playing it... it's all rigged. Right. Danny's the, he's the ringer.
39:58
So I asked Danny for a review of the practice, and he says, uh, [laughs] he says, "I'm gonna take some guys out o- on my own, because they gotta work on their, quote, ball catching," unquote. [coughs] Yeah.
40:09
It, it, yeah, yeah, look, look- Fantastic... ball, ball catching. If, I, like I told JVT- Yeah...
40:15
he might be able to twist my arm and if, you know, we, we, we could chalk it up to exercise, and a lot of the people are involved with the early shows, right? So, like, they're, these guys are getting up early.
40:23
It was early on Saturday morning, right, Danny? And that's like 7:00 AM, Saturday morning. So, like, I understand maybe I don't have much going Friday night, get out Saturday morning, get some exercise. It's good.
40:33
I'm definitely not doing extra practices with Danny, where he's gonna yell at me for my route running or something like that. [laughs] That's so great. Hit it right in the hips. Oh, man.
40:42
But I hear a lot of that, aren't I? Yeah.
40:44
All right, French Open, my only advice here on the men's side is I, and my advice was, if you weren't listening to a numbers game last week, you should start listening to it regularly.
40:51
'Cause we, we talked about the Carlos Alcaraz wrist injury, wearing a wrist guard. Zach brought it up. Drew brought it up. I brought it up.
41:01
Not necessarily in that order, though, though Drew was the first one to text both me and Drew about it. So shout out to Zach.
41:08
But I talked about it here on the show that it's like, okay, look, wrist injuries are wrist injuries. If he's not playing in the French, and Jannik Sinner's just sitting there at minus 120, you gotta bet Sinner.
41:19
And so I did, talked about it on air. You did as well. You jumped on it. Mm-hmm. Jannik Sinner minus 120.
41:25
And we weren't sure if he was gonna play in the French, which by the way, starts at the end of May, towards the end of May, or if he would be hampered if he played Roland Garros.
41:33
Well, we were on the air and it was announced, he is withdrawing not only from Rome, the clay court tournament, the, the last 1,000 before Roland Garros in the French Open, um, but he's also going to miss the French Open itself at Roland Garros.
41:47
So it was, it was announced last week. And so it, here's the thing with tennis lines. It took a long time. Like, there's, there's a whole notion about sportsbooks being asleep at the wheel.
41:57
They were not asleep at the wheel. They were in a coma. Oh, it was incredible. Yeah. It just took forever. Like, we were sitting there, I was like, "Oh, I already betted at that one. Oh, I already betted that one.
42:05
Oh, there's o- I got in one extra one." Yeah. Right, before it moved. Anyway, Jannik Sinner is now minus 260. Drew Dinsack, who's on with us on, on Tuesdays, he said his non-Alcaraz price on Sinner is minus 400.
42:18
So by that If you like Drew's number, there's still value on Jannik Sinner at minus 260. And if you ask me the question, Kelly, uh, who else on this board might actually win the French Open?
42:28
Hey, Gil, who else, uh, like, you know, in the French Open field actually has a chance to beat Jannik Sinner? That's a very good question. Thanks. Just thought of it. Yeah. Uh, I'm gonna say nobody.
42:38
What, what's the-- You know who I wanted to ask you about? W- uh, catch, catch me and others up on- Yeah... uh, Lorenzo Musetti and Joao Fonseca. Great question.
42:48
Musetti has really good clay court n- Let, let me just start, uh, I'll even start at the beginning. I'll run into those two guys. Sascha Zverev, a great player,
42:56
was in the French Open final, probably should've beaten Alcaraz a couple years ago, got hosed by one of those French Open umps on a call. Mm-hmm. "No, I'm sorry, the ball did land there.
43:06
You can see the ball mark right there." Um- Great hair. Yeah, but it, it's, I feel like it's passed him by. I feel like his shot is, has come and gone.
43:15
Novak Djokovic, if he's gonna win a 25th major, it's probably not on clay. Arthur Fils has great clay numbers. I don't think he can beat Sinner, though. Musetti, to answer your question- Mm... great clay numbers.
43:27
I don't think he can beat Sinner. Has he not had as good of a season, like, this year, 2026? Well, remember he got hurt. Remember we were about to win that quarter? Oh, yeah. So we haven't really seen that much of him.
43:38
'Cause I feel like you, you were, you were, you got high on him, I feel like, last year and were betting him a lot, right? Oh, yeah. And then it kinda, I feel like I hadn't heard from him in a while. That's why.
43:45
No, he was up two sets to none on Djokovic, and then he pulled out with the injury, remember? Oh, nine to one or six, whatever it was. Joao Fonseca, I faded Joao Fonseca yesterday with, uh, Rafa Nadal successfully.
43:56
Joao Fonseca is just, he's just not ready for the prime time quite yet. Gonna be a great player. He's just not r- Everybody got a little premature with him. But a better year this year so far than- Nope. No? Not really.
44:08
Nope. Okay. Nope. So yeah, that number feels really short on him, then. Nope. Okay. Casper Ruud has been to the finals of this French Open. He's 30 to one.
44:14
He's a really good clay court player, but do I think he can beat Sinner in a final? I do not. Cerundolo, great clay numbers. Shelton's gonna win a major, but it's probably not gonna be on clay.
44:24
That's Francisco Cerundolo. That's correct. So all of that to say, I mean, they're great players. Some of them love this surface, but you're still not gonna beat Sinner.
44:33
Hey, after I said that, I don't even remember what the other Cerundolo's name is now. [laughs] I don't remember the other one. Juan Manuel. I, I, I knew it was, I knew it was two names, but yeah.
44:40
Do you remember, do you remember what Mirra Andreeva's sister's name is? Oh, boy. You do not. Can I take the break? Sure, sure. I'll close my computer. All right. I'll close my computer. Okay, take the break.
44:51
Take the break. There'll be no cheating here, and I'll take my earpiece out, too. Anyway, so I already bet Sinner on the men's side. As far as the women are concerned, I haven't made a bet yet. Iga got sick in Madrid.
45:01
She had to pull out of a match. I've never seen- Ooh... her pull out of a match ever. I'm talking about, like- Coco too short, right? No, not too short. Coco, Coco's got a sh- C- Coco won this tournament.
45:12
She's got a shot here, plus 650. Um, I have not made a bet on the women's. I will talk more about that tomorrow with Drew, ladies' side, about the French. Coming back on the Numbers Game.
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