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Apr 29, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 29, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 29, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
This is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all proudly brought to you by DraftKings. Live from Bar Canada, the D, it's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:21
What's happening? Not much, buddy. How you doing? Ah, you really wanna know? [laughs] Got another construction project going on around us today. It's okay.
0:33
The Guardians blow a three to one eighth inning lead on the cusp of being six outs away from just needing to win tomorrow, and now this. Yeah. We'll get to the Guardians here coming up on the show. Uh, this is,
0:45
in many ways, has been the most immersed I've ever been into a bet ever, if I'm being honest, because of the perfect length of it, right? It's not so quick like it's tennis tournament quick. Right.
0:58
And it's not so long that it's season long long, where you sort of drift away, but it's the perfect amount of time.
1:03
And because you have every single team in baseball in your rear view mirror approaching, it is complete immersion and complete... I've watched every single pitch of every single Guardians game.
1:14
And it looks like the books are gonna get away with a big mistake here. [laughs] Uh, we'll explain coming up what the scenarios are now, 'cause we're not dead yet. Nothing's over till it's over.
1:25
And it's a different set of circumstances for those of us who betted at Circa- Yeah... as it is for those of us who betted at Dead Heat shops. So we wanna get into that.
1:32
Guardian 65 to one, most wins March, April, is what we're referring to here- It does... for those who are new to the show.
1:36
It, it was definitely a moment, a moment for us on live bet Sunday, yesterday, [laughs] where I was like- Oh... "Oh, no." I was watching the game out of the corner of my eye when they lost it. I was like, "Oh, man."
1:44
But, but you know what, you know what the takeaway though is for the whole thing? The Atlanta Braves are so much better than every other team in baseball- Mm... it's not even funny.
1:54
And we'll talk to Mark Borchardt about that coming up here momentarily.
1:56
Jay Cohn on what has been for, for all of us who are p- s- soaking in the NBA playoffs, which has been by and large a series of blowout series, with a few exceptions, which we'll get to.
2:08
Uh, the NHL looks like it could have eight three to one series if the, if the Golden Knights win tonight. So it hasn't been, uh, that comp- actually, you shouldn't say eight. One was a sweep.
2:17
The Caps got swept, so seven of eight would be three to, uh, three to one. Uh, Mike Somich on the Kentucky Derby, his thoughts on the NFL draft as well. Uh, we'll get into all that.
2:26
Let's start with the NBA, and let's start, Kelly, with I guess the most recent. Let's do it that way.
2:32
Yesterday, yesterday's games beginning with, well, let's start with the one sweep that ended up happening in the first round. Minnesota ends up sweeping Phoenix four games to none.
2:43
They do so with a 122 to 116 win yesterday as a one-point dog. Minnesota goes on, and it looks like, shouldn't say this, but Denver up three to one in their series against the Lakers.
2:54
It looks like it'll be a T'wolves Nuggets, uh, conference semifinal series if the Nuggets can get things done, if they can take care of business. But Anthony Edwards with 40 points.
3:03
Uh, Devin Booker and KD scored a combined 82 of the Suns' 116 points. And I just wanna stop for a moment in time, because of course we, we'll talk about Minnesota.
3:16
We'll have plenty of time to talk Minnes- uh, about Minnesota.
3:19
But the Phoenix Suns mortgaged everything, and I feel like w- mainstream networks are so focused on the Lakers all the time that the Suns aren't getting destroyed enough here.
3:31
Um, and by destroyed, I mean remember when they got KD, um, they sent Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, four first-round draft picks, Kelly, '23, '25, '27, and '29. Talking about years.
3:45
A 2028 first-round pick swap, um, not to mention second-round picks from Milwaukee as well, 'cause it was a three-team trade. And then for Bradley Beal, they sent Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, five second-round picks.
3:57
[laughs] It's just unbelievable. They mortgaged everything. Not only could they not win a series, Kelly, they could not win a game. Sportrac has it, by the way. Yeah, it's real bad.
4:08
Yeah, this is what the off-season [laughs] looks like. And, uh, all the money, uh, that you're gonna, that's still left on the books for the, uh, for the Phoenix Suns, um, it, it's, it's, it's tough.
4:19
Um, I don't even know if [laughs] I don't even know how to be... You're right, the Suns is a conversation that goes under the radar. There's not...
4:25
Here's the t- toughest part about this conversation: there's not a lot of answers. Like, there's not- There's, there's no, there's nothing to talk about...
4:30
like, when, when people are like, "What are the, what are the Suns gonna do?" Uh, there's not much they can do. That, that's the biggest thing. Uh, is Frank Vogel gonna lose his job?
4:39
Probably, 'cause someone loses their job when things like this happen, right? And you can't, players, uh, you're not doing anything with those contracts. Um, I don't know.
4:48
[laughs] I've heard Kevin Durant trade stuff, and you're like, you're not, uh, you can't trade Kevin Durant. Nobody's taking Bradley Beal's contract. I don't know what they're doing.
4:56
Would the Warriors entertain taking KD back and running it back? Or w- or is it just too old, and, and it would be sad at this point? [laughs] Wow. Well, definitely it would be a little bit sad. [laughs] Yeah.
5:06
A little bit sad regardless. It might be. I'd have to look at the money, though. I don't think they could make the money work. Yeah, I don't know. I- Uh, it, it's so sad, though.
5:13
Like, wait, like we're, are we all gonna think back at, at when Durant's career is done? Are we all just gonna say, "Man, c- if you could've just stayed with Golden State and i- you realized- Yes...
5:24
the greatness that you had there"? Yes, because he's not associated with any one team.
5:29
He's like that rare player, like who, who does he go in the Hall of Fame as a, like if this was baseball and you had to put on a, a cap of the team that you wanted to go in as, like who would he pick even?
5:39
It, there's- That's a great question... I don't know. I mean, he's gonna pick the Warriors I guess. I guess. I guess. But that's just- It's gotta be them or Oklahoma City.
5:47
You can't possibly consider Phoenix or Brooklyn... in some ways it's a sort of, I, I get it, he's one of the greatest players of all time.
5:54
He's won championships, but in some strange way, there's a little bit of melancholy to it because of that. Th- there is. Yeah. And I was thinking bit about, a bit about it last night with that, and compare that to-
6:06
The, the, the situation that will be continuiv- continuing to evolve in San Antonio of just if you're a star player that can swallow your pride and be okay if you're, you know, kind of one of these younger guy- younger stars.
6:22
Swallow your pride and be able to go play with Victor Wembanyama and be the number two most likely for your entire career, but realize the greatness that you could end up achieving.
6:32
I can't wait to see that happen because that is... Durant, I mean, Durant bolted out of Golden State because he couldn't hand- he couldn't handle all of the, all the heat he was getting, right? For real.
6:41
All you're gonna do is win if you're with Steph, right? If Denver is about a minus 150, minus 160 favorite against the T-Wolves in a series, where's your bet? This is gonna be really tough.
6:53
I, I have a feeling I'm not gonna be betting that series. Timberwolves get a little bit extra rest here, not that they even really need it. Uh, Nuggets gotta play one more game.
7:01
A pl- I, I, uh, you know, all the pause in the world to the Lakers. Oh, and, and by the way, Lakers have led every game big, so you never know. Yeah, yeah.
7:08
The time [laughs] we put is the, the, the time where they've been leading in the series, have you seen that stat? I'll have to pull that up. Oh. It's the Lakers by a mile. By a mile. It's crazy. Sure.
7:16
Um, I'm not doubting Denver, but like we talked about all along, Minnesota is the one team that gives them trouble defensively. You're gonna be able to throw Gobert at, at, uh, Nikola Jokic.
7:27
I- it does get interesting, and they get, they get thin real quick, right? Like that, that Denver starting five has been amazing. Amazing.
7:35
There's not much off the bench though, and there's not much big be- uh, bigs off the bench to help much. So like, I think it's gonna be a series.
7:42
And Anthony Edwards, every game, is just becoming like moves up a notch on my favorite players in the NBA list. Like he is incredible.
7:51
Um, also yesterday, Indiana takes a three to n- uh, three to one lead against the Milwaukee Bucks in their best of seven first round Eastern Conference series. Of course, this is the series where there's no Giannis.
8:00
Uh, Dame couldn't play yesterday because his Achilles has issues, and then Bobby Portis gets ejected in the first quarter yesterday.
8:08
There was a moment there where it looked like Khris Middleton would have to leave the game as well. [laughs] I thought he was done. I thought he was done. He basically ran straight to the locker room, or hobbled.
8:14
Do you agree with me this is the greatest thing that could have ever happened to Doc Rivers, these injuries?
8:18
That now he doesn't have to take the blame for what's happening here, that they would have probably lost anyway. I didn't even really think about it that way. You- That's all I could think about yesterday...
8:27
you are so right. You are so- That's the best thing that could have happened to him... it is the greatest thing that could have happened to him. Yep.
8:31
Outside of winning a championship, this is [laughs] the best situation that could happen for Doc Rivers. That is so bad to say. It looks like Indiana and New York will play. Looks like.
8:41
Both are up three to one in their respective series.
8:42
The New York Knicks beat the Sixers yesterday in what I thought was Philadelphia, but I'm watching the Guardians at the sports book, and the game they had the audio on, obviously, was the NBA game between the Knicks and the Sixers, and I had to keep looking to remind myself that the game was in Philadelphia.
8:58
Philadelphia is supposed to be one of the great sports towns in America. Is, right? Overrun with Knicks fans. Overrun. Joel Embiid kind of blamed the game, [laughs] the game on that. [laughs] Yeah.
9:07
Um, Jalen Brunson, 47 and 10. Embiid missed all five shots that he took in the fourth quarter. Didn't get a board in the fourth quarter. Anunoby was great on defense. 16 and 14, by the way.
9:18
He D'd up Embiid in the fourth. Um, and the Sixers have no bench. Payne had five. Uh, Batum had one. And they go back to New York looking for the gentleman's sweep to the Knicks.
9:27
If it's the Knicks and the Pacers, the Knicks are gonna be large favorites, aren't they? Yeah. Would, would you consider taking the Pacers? Yeah. No.
9:34
I would, I, I [laughs] I'll probably consider the Knicks at almost any price. Really? I, I think the Pacer- the Pacers are an extremely flawed team that are gonna get by the Milwaukee Bucks. Um,
9:44
I don't believe in them at all. I, I'm really interested to see what the, uh, what the n- what the price is on that series.
9:49
And then the only series so far, and the only other one we haven't discussed from yesterday, the Clippers and the Mavericks out west, they're now knotted up at two games a piece. 2-0, I, I...
10:00
This is the first thing I said to JBT when he was on last week, when they had the first game where they looked terrible with Kawhi. I'm like, "They, this, they, they're, they gotta do something about this.
10:08
Like, he's, they're awful with him." And yesterday, no Kawhi. Clippers go to 2-0 in this series without Kawhi, 0-2 with him. Uh, James Harden, unstoppable down the stretch. Mm-hmm. 33, 6 and 7 with the float game.
10:21
Uh, playoff Paul George showed up yesterday, 33, 6 and 8. Um, in a game where the Clippers were up 31 in the second quarter, the Mavs got within two twice in the third quarter.
10:31
Like, it didn't even take them that long to make up that deficit. But then the Clippers would go back up 11. The Mavs would eventually tie it at 98 and 100. They actually took a one-point lead at 105 to 104.
10:41
But, um, huge three from P- from, uh, Paul George, and then Harden's float game, just unstoppable. This is the one series that it's two to two.
10:49
Do you have any idea what to make of this going forward in a, in a de facto best of three?
10:54
I wanna say I'm still very confident about the Dallas Mavericks, but Luka Dončić, his knee is looking worse and worse throughout this series.
11:01
I, he was cl- I mean, I, he was clearly affected by that, uh, yesterday, big time. I, I mean, he wasn't game three. Yesterday was more noticeable to me. Uh, that's an issue. I, I ca- can...
11:11
[laughs] I mean, I don't, it's, like, kind of amazing with all these guys involved that this might come down to a Kyrie versus James Harden, Paul George type series. Yeah. It's kinda what it's looking like right now.
11:21
I, Jason Kidd's driving me nuts on the Dallas side, so, like, why is Maxi Kleber playing 22 minutes? He just brought in Gafford. You got Derrick Lively in the draft. They've been amazing. Why is Kleber out there?
11:30
I know he's, what he's done in the past. Shouldn't be playing this many minutes. Still believe in the Mavericks. Still believe. Of course, Luka getting two fouls in the first 2:23 of that game- Mm...
11:38
had a impact as well. Uh, we'll talk about Saturday's games a little later, and we'll update the Guardian's bet. Little baseball break with Mark Borchardt on the other side.
11:46
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Numbers game proudly brought to you by DraftKings here at Bar Canada at the D. Don't forget about our daily newsletter, Bill's Late Nights become Your Mornings, the lovechild of Bill Adey on a daily basis.
12:11
In today's newsletter- Lakers face elimination again. JBT and Zach Cohen write all about it By the way, I left out the key word. It's free. Free? Free. Won't cost you nothing.
12:22
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12:31
Podcast, everything there in the newsletter. Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. A lot of people chiming in on the question of, like, who would KD pick as his team?
12:43
I lo- I love our, I love our audience. We have the best. I got six immediate tweets- Immediate... and they're all right. They're all right. They're all correct.
12:48
Uh, Kyle, "KD will be going to the Hall of Fame as a Sonic." There we go. Chance Copper Pot, "KD goes into the hall as a Seattle Supersonic. Book it." Jamie Leva, "Durant should retire as a Sonic. It seems fitting.
12:59
Have a great day, gentlemen." It does seem fitting. That would. How would that work? Like, [laughs] is that even possible? You need a jersey. Like, can't Seattle, the city of Seattle- [laughs]...
13:09
make up, like, a fake jersey that the NBA can't, uh, sue them for? Oh, man. Was he not one year in a Sonic jersey though? At the beginning of his career? I thought he was. Drafted. God, did he play an entire season?
13:21
I think he did. I don't even remember. Uh, Michael. This is at, uh, Mike AM4561. Uh, McMahon on ESPN, he said, "Suns are 0 and 6 in the playoffs since Mady Sbea tried to draw a charge on Joker."
13:34
Yes, I was thinking this in the last segment, but I didn't say it out loud. All of this, uh, with the Suns couldn't happen to a nicer owner. Get Pablo Torre on the show stat. [laughs] Pablo Torre finds out.
13:45
One of, one of me and Gil's favorite shows on the DraftKings network. Great piece on that story. Oh, it's so good. Highly recommend watching. So good. Go watch. Yep. So well done.
13:54
Uh, let's take a little baseball break 'cause I was talking about the Guardians bet, uh, and specifically my, my large takeaway from all of it.
14:01
The, uh, it might be the obvious one, but good God, did it leap off the, uh, the screen in all of these days just fully immersed in baseball, is how much better the Atlanta Braves seem to be than everybody else.
14:12
We bring in Mark Borchardt from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert.
14:15
You can follow him @Basewinner on Twitter, basewinner.com, and of course the bet, and of course rather, the Bet US podcast, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Mark? I'm doing good, Gil.
14:25
Um, I'm, I th- I agree with you. I think the Braves are the best team in baseball, even though I'm wearing my Philly, uh, shirt today. Isn't it, and it, and it's one of those things, right?
14:34
I've talked about the, the word I use is the incongruence between the 162 game regular season, and then, uh, if you're one of the top two teams in your league, you get to play a, you get to skip to the best of five.
14:44
Still a best of five. Other teams have to play a best of three before that. And so anything can happen in that short of a series.
14:51
Even with that, which I acknowledge, and I'm the king, who perhaps of acknowledging, aren't the Braves so good? Like, why shouldn't we all have a futures play on them? Yeah, they are.
15:03
I mean, they're, they're the only team in baseball with a projected run differential of over two.
15:08
Uh, you look at their, the, the components of, of how they're made up and, and runs scored per game, I have them just generally, uh, of course, each game's different based on the components they're facing, but it's 6.18 runs scored per game versus 4.17 runs per game.
15:26
And then kind of to contrast that, and the Dodgers are pretty good too. They're, they're close, so 5.92 runs scored per game, uh, against a 4.13 runs scored per game. So I definitely think...
15:36
And then let maybe, maybe throw like a, I don't know, like a Baltimore in. So that, that goes all the way down to 4.95 runs scored per game and 3.83.
15:46
So the, the, the difference between Atlanta and, and the Dodgers, I think, is, is really significant.
15:52
Uh, so those two teams, I think you should probably, if you, if you can, just, just s- find a way to put them in something because I th- those, those teams are so darn good, Gil. I mean, uh, you know, watching the...
16:05
Do you remember, and you've, you've been around almost as long as I have. We've been watching baseball since 1975. Do you remember like a first three lineup, the Dodgers, those... I mean, Ohtani and Betts- Never...
16:16
and Freeman? Never. I mean, it's just, it, it might be the best ever in baseball. I mean, that's a big claim, but like that's, that's what the numbers show, Gil.
16:25
Yeah, but if w- in the Braves case, it's, it's further down the lineup than that, right? It's almost seven deep where you're terrified. And like Ozuna might be the best of all of them at this moment.
16:36
Acuna really hasn't been Acuna level to this point. They've obviously, like the Guardians, they lost their ace to Tommy John. Um, you know where the real difference is to me also with, with Atlanta? Defensively.
16:49
If you, if you are not hitting a screaming liner or grounding it through the infield or hitting it out of the park, like anything that has air is going to get run down in that outfield. It's incredible. Uh, just so good.
17:02
Yeah. Well, you know, you make a really good point, the depth of their lineup. And you also said that Ozuna might be better than Acuna, and it certainly would come out, uh, the last 500 plate appearances.
17:13
And what I do is I do base runs created, uh, and I adjust for park factors. So Ozuna is just above Acuna. Actually, he's at se- 6.75 runs. Acuna at 6.62. Jeez.
17:26
So they're, they're neck and neck, but I thought that that was a really good observation 'cause that, when I was running these today, I, I noticed that he had just jumped Acuna. So, uh, but, but they are.
17:34
They're, they're just so deep and that, that's, uh, you, you gotta factor that in. Yeah, you don't, you don't miss a baseball detail when you have a 65 to 1 that's gonna die a fiery death at the end. Believe me.
17:44
Uh, okay. I think you still have a chance. You still have a chance- Oh, yeah... though, on it, Gil, don't you? We still have a chance. Still have a chance. It could be done tonight, but we still have a chance.
17:51
Um, okay, let me ask you this about Cy Young. I made a bet on Logan Webb last week, 10 to 1 to win the National League Cy Young. I wanna ask you about that. You can find him at 8 to 1 still at DraftKings.
18:03
But I also wanna ask you about Shota Imanaga of the Cubs, who's 20 to 1. Would you make a bet on either for NL Cy Young? Well, personally, I wouldn't.
18:16
Um, I'm trying to think of the, the guy who You know what's interesting is this guy, this, uh, Jared Jones here. And I mean, I didn't know Jared Jones. Honestly, Gil, from Mike Jones, the rapper, before the season.
18:28
[laughs] And this- Mike Jones. Mike Jones. And I know Mike Jones, you know? [laughs] But I didn't know Jared Jones. And, and this guy's...
18:35
[laughs] Dude, he's- he's got the best base winner ERA, uh, in the National League at, at 2.40. 42% above from a strikeout percentage, 40, or 53% below from a ground ball percentage.
18:48
So I mean, there's- there's- there's nothing not to like about that guy. Uh, and then, and then I can't even, you know, I, I can't even find the other guys.
18:55
They're, they're all the way down there on, on, on the charts, so. Uh, I, I wouldn't... The only thing about the, the thing about Webb, though, is he's gonna get a lot of wins.
19:04
So it just depends on how those voters vote, and, and wins has been a big component over the years, but strikeouts has, too, and he's kinda, he kinda lags in that department, Gil.
19:14
Jared Jones Pirates is, uh, 50 to 1, by the way. 50 to 1 to win the NL Cy Young. Do we have, uh, Mark Borchardt doing Snoop Dogg? Do we have that available to us? Oh, we'll see if it's on. I'm laid back.
19:23
Got my mind on my money, and my money on my mind. There it is. Hey, the Snoop, he got Snoop lyrics. He's got Mike Jones at his disposal, and yet he's in a lab doing baseball saver metrics. This is fantastic.
19:34
All right, what do you got today, sir? Well, I- Oh, go ahead. I'm sorry. Oh, one thing I wanted to say about, about Japanese pitchers in the National League is this Yamamoto, he has been Yama-be-there, Gil.
19:44
That's up your alley. [laughs] Yes. Yes. And [laughs] you, you look at expected ERA, 2.62. That's fourth in the, in the National League, uh, by my numbers. But, uh, you asked about today, and I will deliver.
19:57
I will give you a parlay today, Gil. I'm gonna go, uh- What a shocker... Minnesota. Yeah. M- B- Base winner parlay. Minnesota with Joe Ryan.
20:05
You know, Joe Ryan has the highest strikeout percentage on the board over his last 150 plate appearances. Of course, this is adjusted for park factors, too, but 32.8%, uh, strikeout rate over his last 150 batters faced.
20:20
And he's going against a guy, Bryce, or he's going against a guy, rather, [laughs] um, Garrett Crochet, who has the second-most, uh, strikeout percentage, uh, coming in.
20:31
But I, I think that, that it's kind of the, the, the equality in this comparison stops there. Uh, you look at this, uh, this, this White Sox bullpen, it's, it's awful.
20:42
I have the White Sox bullpen, bullpen 30th in baseball compared to the Twins' bullpen, and the Twins' bullpen is the best bullpen in baseball from a, a K minus BB standpoint, 19.8%.
20:55
Uh, and like I said before, that's amazing considering their best player, uh, is still in, on the injured list, Gil. Yeah. By the way, uh, Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 35 to 1 in the NL Cy Young. Just wanna clean that up.
21:06
Uh, by the way, Yama be there. Do you know who's sang that? Do you know which two, uh, sing, sang that duet? Do you know? I do, but I can't remember it off the top of my head, so. Michael McDonald, James Ingram.
21:16
1985, I believe it was. Um- That's right. That's right. We, you brought up the White- Of course you knew that... We brought up the White Sox. Let me just ask you this, this closing question. Rockies have seven wins.
21:24
We talked about the Guardians bet, which we're gonna update the scenarios momentarily. But at the bottom of MLB, the Rockies have seven wins. The White Sox and Marlins both have six.
21:32
Do people who have Marlins bets have a shot at this? As far as, like, the worst team to, to finish? Of all, of, of... Well, yeah, the fewest wins in baseball this year. No, I don't think so.
21:43
I think it's gonna come down between, uh, um, White Sox, Rockies, and A's. Yeah. But hopefully it will be the White... The White Sox are, are just atrocious.
21:50
The, the, and their, their best two players are, are, I don't know if they're back in the lineup now, but they've, they've been injured the whole, the whole, uh, s- first, first month, Gil.
21:56
The A's look pesky, though, don't they? Yeah, but if you look, if you look at the, the components of their team, you know, they're, they just can't get the hitting. They're 84 w- rate of runs created plus.
22:08
It's, like, fourth in baseball. I don't really like their starting pitching. But I tell you, one thing you can't ignore is Mason Miller, and somebody's- Oh... gonna get him maybe. Dude. You know.
22:17
Hopefully it's the Orioles, if you're an Oriole fan. Mason Miller, I saw him close one of those games against the Yankees, and the Yankees were like, "Who is this dude, and how quickly can we acquire him?" Well, yeah.
22:29
He's the kind of guy- Yes... he, he'll tell you, "I'm throwing a fastball. It's gonna be up, elevated." Yeah. "Hit it." And, and they, they can. That's right. Here you go, Juan Soto. Here you go, Aaron Judge.
22:37
It's gonna be 102 in your face. Try to get this. Mark, thank you. Appreciate it. My pleasure, Gil. We'll update that Guardians bet. More on the NBA. Numbers game. VSiN, the sports betting network, coming back.
22:50
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game live from Bar Canada at The D. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. Numbers game. Um, we had tweets of beating the boat.
23:00
This is from Joby, The Real Joby. "Any chance we can get Al Bernstein appearance on ANG in the coming weeks? Talk some boxing. Lot of low-key compelling fights over the next few weeks. Canelo on Cinco de Mayo.
23:10
Uh, Usyk and Fury. And for the boxing hardos, Beterbiev and Bivol." All right. Ooh. We'll, we'll look into that. Should I stop being surprised by Canelo on Cinco de May- like, does it happen every year? Feels like it.
23:21
Okay. Okay. Thank you. Feels like it. Yeah. Uh- I mean, like, I know it's a thing out here in Vegas, but, like, it feels like it's every year. You mean Canelo fighting on Cinco de Mayo? Yes. Yes. Yeah, just to clear.
23:32
Like, some people are gonna be like, "Yes, Kelly, Cinco de Mayo is every year." [laughs] No, yes, I meant Canelo- Uh-... fighting on Cinco de Mayo. Leiva says, "Mike Jones who?" Also, excellent Yama be there reference.
23:41
Michael McDonald, James Ingram. Oh, 1983, he says. CB Moore, "Boy, did I not think you were gonna use the F word fiery, but remember, it wasn't the pod, LOL."
23:49
Uh, Corbin, "Not sure if you guys have seen the trailer for Clipped. It explores the rule of Donald Sterling and the horrible things that happened over the years there in LA.
23:57
But the worst thing, it looks like they project Rivers to be a half-decent coach in the series. Yuck."
24:02
Uh, Stringfellow Hawk, "Got my mind on my money and my money on my mind is the title of a song from Atlanta hip hop group The Youngbloods. It slaps." Uh, Bill Hooker, Bill Hooker, "I got distracted.
24:11
I didn't catch the second half of the parlay with the Twins." Did you catch the second half of the parlay with the Twins? No, I was just gonna ask you about that. [laughs] I might have to text Mark.
24:19
Did he not get to the second half? I don't know if he got to it. [laughs] All right, let's make sure we get that Um, I wrote down Twins.
24:24
I wrote down the first leg too [laughs] for whoever tweeted that And Robert Washburn, uh, I hear Yama be there on more-- If I hear Yama be there on one more time, I'm going to Yama blow my brains out.
24:33
That's from 40-Year-Old Virgin. [laughs] That's, that's- Yeah... that's all I was laughing at when you brought that up. Great song. Was, was that scene. Okay. So excited, I finally have the courage to tell you.
24:41
[laughs] If you don't turn off this Mike McDowell song. That's right. All right, Cleveland Guardians bet. Um, I, I'm gonna say what I said earlier.
24:49
In many ways, I've been more immersed in this bet than any bet I've ever had because of the length of it, because of the breadth of it.
24:55
Uh, we have 65 to one for the Cleveland Guardians to end up with the most wins in baseball by the end of April. It's a March/April bet.
25:02
Few games, I think four games in March, um, four days of baseball in March, and then all of April. Um, this is a bad number, and
25:11
boy, oh boy, if the Guardians win that game yesterday, they were up three to one in the eighth. If they hold on and win, all we have to do is win tomorrow night. Uh, if that is-- That is if you bet it at Circa.
25:22
So let's go through the scenarios right now as we stand here. The Braves are 19 and seven, the Guardians are 19 and nine, the Yankees and Phillies are all 19 and 10. The Dodgers are next with 18 wins at 18 and 12.
25:36
Uh, and then there's four teams with 17 wins, the Brewers, Orioles, Cubs, and Royals. So, uh, two days left, today and tomorrow, then it becomes May. The Guardians do not play today.
25:46
They do not have a scheduled game today. All the other teams I just mentioned play twice today and tomorrow. If you made this bet at Circa like I did, there is no dead heat rules.
25:59
Uh, it is a tiebreaker where the first tiebreaker is fewest wins. So you have the-- If you're tied for the most wins, the team that has the fewest wins would win the wager.
26:09
Um, the second tiebreaker would be best run differential if they both had the same record, wins, and losses.
26:14
So as a result of that, for the Guardians to win this bet, if you bet it at Circa, non-dead heat rules, we essentially, Kelly, would have to hit a five-leg parlay. Five-leg parlay.
26:28
But we-- it's not exactly a file-- a five-leg parlay because we have seven chances to hit that five-leg parlay. Let me explain. Guardians would have to win tomorrow night at Houston. That's the first thing.
26:40
Guardians would have to win tomorrow night at Houston on April 30th. But the Braves would have to go O and two tonight and tomorrow night at Seattle. Um, this is not correct, what, what's up on the screen.
26:55
That's for-- That's a different one. Let me, let me go through again the Circa rules.
27:00
For us to win the bet at Circa, the Guardians have to win tomorrow night, the Braves have to go O and two, and the Yankees and Phillies would have to do no better than one and one.
27:11
Guardians have to win, Braves O and two, Yankees, Phillies can't do better than one and one. If that happens, the Guardians still win the bet. But that's the only way the Guardians win the bet.
27:20
So if the Braves win tonight, the bet is over. We lose. 'Cause the real bugaboo is the Braves have to lose twice in Seattle. If the Phillies won tonight, it would still extend into tomorrow.
27:31
If the Yankees won against the Orioles tonight, it would still extend to tomorrow. Now, remember, the Phillies are at the Angels, so by, in terms of matchup, the Phillies might have the easiest go of it at the LA Angels.
27:43
So Guardians must win, Braves must go O and two. Really, the, the proper way to say that is they can't win again. Uh, and then the Phillies and Yankees can't do better than one and one.
27:53
Now, that's the Circa non-dead heat tiebreaker rules. If you have bet this at a dead heat shop like at DraftKings, it's a different set of circumstances. So the different set of circumstances are as follows. Um,
28:11
you don't have to have the Braves go O and two. It's a different, it's a different sort of calculus. Let me explain here on this. The problem is you could also end up with a massive dead heat tie, which is the downside.
28:26
So I'm gonna, I'm gonna do it off the phone here, Kelly, because it's the only way to do it, uh, in a linear fashion here. But here's the deal.
28:33
So with the-- with that scenario, if you're in a dead heat shop, and this is gonna be tough to sort of explain, but the bet will win outright for you if the Guardians win tomorrow night and the Braves, Yankees, and Phillies all go O and two, and the Dodgers do no better than one and one.
28:52
Okay? I know that sounds completely ridiculous for you to win the bet that way. You're right, that's almost impossible because that's way more than a five-leg parlay. Um, you can also win the bet, by the way. Um,
29:07
that, that's the way you win the bet outright. Talk about outright. Now, okay, so you have a, you have a bit of a less of a chance to win it outright than even the remote circumstances of the Circa folks.
29:17
But you do have a shot at dead heating this, which I know is not sexy, but here's the deal on the dead heat.
29:25
So if the Guardians win tomorrow night, the Braves go one and one at best, the Yankees go one and one at best, the Phillies go one and one at best, and the Dodgers possibly could join you at two and O.
29:37
But that is not that unlikely. There also is a circumstance where you could dead heat it if the Guardians lost, and then all those teams went O and two, right?
29:47
The Braves went O and two, the Yankees went O and two, the Phillies went O and two, and the Dodgers go one and one at best.
29:51
Also, keep in mind in the Guardians lose scenario that the Brewers, Cubs, Orioles, and Royals would also join the head-- the dead heat if they went two and O, if that makes sense. So
30:01
if you're in a dead heat shop, you're probably not gonna win it outright.
30:05
You're probably not looking forward to a-- You're probably not gonna win a dead-- You're probably not gonna get a dead heat if you lose, if the Guardians lose tomorrow night.
30:12
So your best opportunity to dead heat if you are on the Guardians most wins March and April at a dead heat shop is the scenario where the Guardians win tomorrow Braves no better than one in one.
30:26
Yankees no better than one in one. Phillies no better than one in one. And whether the Dodgers can join or not by winning out is the only thing you would have to worry about beyond that. So that's kind of where we are.
30:40
So it's a different set of circumstances based on the rules. I'm not sure which one you would prefer. If you landed on this right now and you got to choose.
30:50
Oh boy, I, I, I'm the wrong person to even ask because I'm s- I'm so jaded by betting golf in dead heat, so it'd be like, "Just get me out-" De- "... of the no dead heat situation." Dead heats are the worst. Yes.
30:58
Like, I almost, I almost prefer being in the Circa circumstance. 'Cause, 'cause let's be honest with this. I would. I have won a lot on the Guardians the whole way through.
31:07
I bet, I laid out what I was gonna do Friday on the show, where I was like, "I'm not gonna bet the Braves on Friday," but if, if the Braves won on Friday, which they did, I would then bet the Braves on Saturday and bet them on Sunday, which I did.
31:17
So we lost the Braves bet on Saturday, but then bet even more yesterday. So we've made money on this, not even close to 65 to one is the problem. But I think at this point, I, I'm with you, I hate dead heat so much.
31:28
[laughs] Hate it so much. I mean, how many- That-... how many teams are we talking about potentially that could be tied?
31:34
Well, in the Guardians win dead heat scenario, it's a potential one, two, three, four, five team tie. I mean, that is gonna be brutal. Bro. That is going to be brutal- In the Guard-... if that happens. Yes.
31:45
That, that's the likely dead. If the Guardians lose one, it could be up to nine teams. Oh. But that's not gonna happen. So let's talk about the Guardians win. You're gonna be losing your mind at five.
31:52
[laughs] The Guardians win thing, if it's, let's say it's four, let's say the Dodgers don't go two and O. Right. Let's say it's four.
31:57
You're, you're still, it's still gonna be such a horrible feeling to have gone a month plus, actually gotten a long shot dead heat, and then look at your account and being like, "Are you serious?" It's brutal.
32:11
It's brutal. I'm just, I, anybody who's made this bet with dead heat rules, just, just make sure you're aware of, like, what's gonna happen. 'Cause it is, it is tough.
32:20
It is tough when you look at your account and you're like, "Wait, what? How? Why?" Well, th- and this is, think about how much more brutal this is than hitting a golf top 10- Yeah... for four days. Yeah.
32:30
This is, we had a, let's say they didn't get a 65 to one, let's say they got a 50. We had a 50 to one shot, we spent 34 days, we end up being completely right about everything basically.
32:42
But because maybe we lost a game to rain, ultimately. Although, again, I'll, let me just be fair, the Braves were actually unluckier than the Guardians. Right, yeah.
32:52
Like, the Braves and the Guardians were the unluckiest. The Braves lost two games to rain, the Guardians lost one game to rain, and both teams lost their ace, Spencer Strider and, uh, Shane Bieber.
33:02
And yet both teams are still tied for the most wins in baseball. By the way, I don't really have a great answer to, to the solution of something else in place of dead heat.
33:11
[laughs] 'Cause it's almost crazy to me that Circa does do what they do for the tiebreaker- You're like, you're like a-... but it's also... we're like a politician. You guys are terrible. [laughs] What would you guys do?
33:19
I don't know. [laughs] I don't know, but you guys are terrible. So there it is. That's where it stands. If the Braves lose tonight though, for the Circa folks, this continues into tomorrow no matter what. We shall see.
33:32
Uh, we'll come back. We got horse racing with Mike Somich. So much to get to. A little hockey break. The NHL playoffs in full swing. Jake Hahn next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:49
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It's Kentucky Derby time. Are you ready for the greatest two minutes in sports? Saddle up with DK Horse, an official DraftKings affiliate.
33:59
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34:12
That's the play through requirement. Download DK Horse now to join the Run for the Roses action only on the DK Horse app.
34:18
And we will have Mike Somich, uh, with us a little later on to talk about the 150th Run for the Roses. One of- It's a great looking graphic. Why doesn't the promo code just Somich or Samo Bomb? Samo Bomb.
34:31
He's gotta be doing, like, 90% of the content. They were like, "Should we go with Samo Bomb or Horse?" And they're like, "We'll go with Horse." Or, Horse might be easier. [laughs] Horse might be easier.
34:39
People might have trouble spelling Samo Bomb. Oh, uh, uh, so Mark Borchardt, I, this might have been my fault. I might have moved him along. The second part of the parlay was what? Phillies.
34:47
Twins and Phillies money line parlays. Twins and Phillies. Also, congratulations to our buddy Preston Johnson and Jason Weingarten, but, uh, specifically Preston Johnson. Crawley Town- Made the playoffs?...
34:58
made the playoffs in League Two. Playoffs? Yeah. That's awesome. Yes. I di- that is one thing I forgot to, uh, check this weekend.
35:05
It is one of the most awesome sports stories ever, because Preston, again, we were just doing podcasts, right? And he was on Daily Wager. He bounces from Daily Wager. They're like, "What ha- happened?"
35:18
He's like, "I'm out of here." Uh, and then Preston ends up buying this soccer team. They hate him. They hate Preston. He's this Yankee who comes in, all this Moneyball stuff.
35:31
He's getting rid of all their lovable great players, supposedly great, and they make the playoffs, baby. Let's go.
35:37
The one, the one thing I could tell just looking at the standings a couple, or the table, a couple times is the, the lack of, of, the lack of draws with the team.
35:45
I'm like, well, if that's the, if that doesn't signify an American owner, I don't know what does. Like, we're, we're not gonna draw with anybody. We're win it or lose it.
35:51
And, like, the, the players they got rid of never, didn't make the playoffs, played on this other team. It's just a great story.
35:57
So now, by the way, if they were to win the playoffs, which is a whole nother thing, they would advance to League One. The Wrexham thing is they went from three to two to one in consecutive years, but they spent- Yeah...
36:08
millions and millions of dollars. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, that show's great. They're also very open on it- Yeah... o- open about it on that show of how much they're spending, basically. That's right. That's right.
36:16
I don't know if this know, this man knows about, uh, League Two soccer, but he sure knows about the NHL. It's Jake Hahn, everybody, uh, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
36:24
Of course, Jake, the co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL. You can follow him on Twitter @JHan4. The number four. Why the number four, Jake? That's ju- that's just my number.
36:36
It's always been my number, so I, I rolled with four, and I've, uh, I've never changed it. I don't know much about League Two soccer. I, I can't really help you guys out there. I think I know about as much as Kelly.
36:45
The fact that he knew that it's a table and not standings, that's as, that's as far as my knowledge goes, uh, of soccer. [laughs] That's very, very impressive. That's right.
36:51
When he came out with the table, it was very impressive. All right, let- let's just do these macro. So in the Eastern Conference, um, Caps got swept. Uh-uh. And then the other three are three to one.
37:03
Carolina three to one over the Islanders, uh, the Bruins three to one over the Maple Leafs. I don't know if you know this, they haven't won a cup since 1967. Uh, and then Florida three to one over the Lightning.
37:13
And a couple of those, they just got off the schneid in game four, right? Uh, is there a team that is down three-one that you would make a bet on to win, to come back and win? In terms of- The series...
37:23
yeah, in terms of actually coming back to win the series, I, I just don't see it with any of these teams. I, I think, I think Carolina wraps it up in five.
37:30
That felt like a five-game series to me where, okay, Islanders are gonna find a way to win one at home, goes back to Carolina for five where they have a distinct home ice advantage and they should wrap that up.
37:40
So I don't see it there with that series, and that would be the biggest long shot of any of them to come back. I could see Tampa making it a bit of a series.
37:48
Obviously, they'd have to win tonight, uh, to force another game. But I just think Florida is distinctly the better team there as well. Uh, the one that I actually c- would be the Leafs-Bruins series. Uh- Ooh...
37:58
at the end of the day, the Bruins usually break the, the hearts of Maple Leafs fans.
38:02
But these series tend to go six, seven games, so if Toronto can get the win in Boston on Tuesday night, I, I think they have a good shot of, of winning game six back on home ice and forcing a seven.
38:12
So ultimately winning the series I think would be tough, but if you are looking for a, a price to get in on, I think it would probably be the Maple Leafs, and then maybe give yourself some hedge opportunity if it does get into that, uh, that game seven situation.
38:23
But ultimately, guys, I, I do think that all of those teams in the East that are up 3-1 are up 3-1 for a reason and should probably find a way to close out those series eventually.
38:32
All right, but you just made the people listening on Game Plus in, uh, Toronto very happy with that, uh, that bit of daylight for them. What about the West, though?
38:39
So the West, and we'll, we'll leave the, uh, Stars and the Knights, 'cause that's the only series- Yeah... that's played three games. But we also have three three-to-one series currently.
38:47
Colorado up three to one on Winnipeg. It's been an interesting series. Winnipeg took the first game. Uh, Vancouver three to one over the Preds, and then the Oilers three to one over the Kings.
38:57
Any of those teams that are down three to one that you could see coming back and winning the series, and therefore making a bet on?
39:04
Yeah, Jets fans probably feel, like, a bit of deja vu from last year, where they won game one against Vegas, and they looked really good and everyone thought, "Okay, are the Jets gonna go on a run?"
39:12
And then Vegas just won four straight, and obviously we know what the Knights were able to do after that.
39:16
So, uh, Colorado's [laughs] maybe hoping for a similar fate, uh, as to Vegas last year, where, okay, yeah, you lose game one against the Jets, then you kinda get on a roll.
39:24
When, when they get it into, uh, a different gear, guys, there's few teams that can play at the pace that the Colorado Avalanche can, and I just think that the Jets are having a really tough time keeping up with that pace.
39:33
I think they're a deeper team up front, but just with the, the, that pace that I referenced that Colorado's playing at, I think it's just too difficult for Winnipeg, uh, to come back in the series.
39:42
I think people in Winnipeg are already trying to sell their, their home game tickets, guys. So I think waving the white flag here, uh, in this series.
39:48
I, I do think in the Nashville-Vancouver series, for large chunks of that series, Nashville has been the better team. But last night is just, that's, that's a tough loss to come back from.
39:57
You're up 3-1 with three minutes to go in the game to tie up the series, and you let Vancouver score two goals, and then the quick overtime winner. So that is just a, that's a crippling loss right there.
40:07
And again, I, you know, referencing LA and Edmonton, another series that's now 3-1, I thought LA was distinctly the better team in that game last night.
40:15
Dominated the play five on five, just could not score a goal o- on Stuart Skinner and the Edmonton Oilers. Oilers get their one power play and they score on it, and they win the game one-nothing.
40:25
So a frustrating loss, uh, for LA.
40:27
I, I would give Nashville, I think, the best chance of any of those three teams to, to claw their way back into the series, just because Vancouver is still down to their third-string goaltender and, and facing some challenges there.
40:37
Let me just give you the actual numbers from DraftKings to see if this in any way changes your mind. The Kings are 12 to 1 to come back and beat the Oilers. Islanders, 13 to 1 come back to beat the Hurricanes.
40:47
Lightning, nine to one to come back and beat the Panthers. Leafs are eight to one to come back and beat the Bruins. Uh, Jets are plus 750 to come back and beat the Avalanche. And the Preds, uh, what is that?
41:00
Uh, six to one to come back and beat the Canucks. By the way, they already have a Hurricanes-Rangers series price, where the Hurricanes are minus 140 and the Rangers are plus 120.
41:15
Give me, uh, on that one, guys, uh, at, at plus money. I mean, the Rangers were my cup pick at the start of the playoffs, so I think I have to ride with them. And we all knew this series was going to happen.
41:23
Or, and again, it's still, uh, Carolina still needs to win one game for it to officially happen, but I do like them to, to get it done against the Islanders.
41:30
Um, that's a series we a- we've all had circled really for the entirety of, of the season, seeing that those two teams in the Metropolitan division were just in a tier, a class of their own.
41:39
So it almost feels like their playoffs will officially start in round two, that round one was almost a warm-up for both of these teams.
41:45
Uh, I'm a little surprised a- at the series price, just because the, the Rangers, you know, they do have home ice advantage in that series, and to ha- see them open up at, at plus 120, very interesting to me and as somebody that, that really likes this Rangers team.
41:57
By the way, is it common practice for them to put up a series price of a series that's not yet established, even if it's only one game away? Is that, like, a thing?
42:05
I think, I think that just speaks to how obvious the, the, those first two round series were. The fact that they're already ready, locked and loaded with odds for us to, to bet that second round series.
42:13
I'm surprised they didn't post them, like, two months ago. I, I've seen DraftKings do it before, but it's, it's rare. Yeah. Yes, it's rare. [laughs] All right. Tonight we have a double header.
42:21
Uh, Lightning-Panthers, game five, the aforementioned, get game five in that series. And then the Stars and the Golden Knights, game four. Yeah. Golden Knights won the first two on the road.
42:30
Stars come back, win it in overtime. Overtime in game three. Your thoughts on these two? Game three was awesome. I, I loved game three. Obviously, the Stars were in a desperation situation.
42:41
You lose two games on home ice, and you're thinking, "Okay, this, this thing could get away from us really fast." So they went into Vegas, they found a way. It's never gonna be easy to win games in Vegas.
42:50
Like we saw, they needed overtime. Wyatt Johnston with a, you know, a great tough angle shot. Uh, that kid is a, a heck of a player and just continues to get better.
42:57
He's been moved up in Dallas's lineup as well to try to create a little bit more offense from some of the, the top players. I just, I still can't get behind them a- as a road favorite here, guys.
43:06
That, I l- I do love the Stars team. I think they're a slightly better team than Vegas. And even though they lost both on home ice, I, I thought that they looked pretty good at times in those games.
43:15
Uh, just based strictly on the price, I'd have to roll with the Knights here. If you could find plus money on home ice with a Vegas team, I think this game should be close.
43:23
And if I think it's gonna be close, I, I gotta side with the home team at plus money here with Vegas. And just to clarify, nothing in the other game?
43:31
No- nothing, no, uh, no play on a side, but I, I do like Sam Reinhart over three and a half shots on goal in that game. He continues to shoot a lot.
43:38
Uh, and Andrei Vasilevskiy, the, the goaltender for Tampa Bay, over 28 and a half saves for that one as well. I, I think if Tampa has any shot, it's going to have to be a 30-plus save performance, uh, from Vasilevskiy.
43:50
Yeah. And, uh, can I just say this again, like, about the Golden Knights?
43:53
'Cause I don't think it gets said enough here, 'cause people here in Vegas are like, "Yeah, of course we got to the Stanley Cup finals year one and won it in year six."
44:00
44 years it took the Caps to win a Stanley Cup, and they were only in one finals before that in the first 43. Still, it's still one of the most amazing sports things I've ever seen. It's incredible.
44:09
They made me leave the bar early, Gil. The, all the fans show up, and I said, "I gotta get out of here. I need to go watch the NBA." Too many Go- Golden Knights fans. They have no idea, Jake. None.
44:18
[laughs] They're too young to know. Thank you, Jake. All right. Appreciate it. Jake Hahn, everybody. Um, @jakehahn4 on Twitter. Thanks, boys. Thank you, buddy. Uh, we'll come back.
44:27
Kentucky Derby with so much more NBA as well. [upbeat music]
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