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Apr 29, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 29, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 29, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Ladies and gentlemen, it's radio's Gil Alexander.
0:22
Alongside our returning champion from Turks and Caicos, Kelly Bidlin, everybody, back in the fold. How you doing? Returning champion. And, uh, I'm, I'm glad to be back. Happy to be back, Gil.
0:31
Uh, I only thought about leaving you and staying there about four times. [laughs] Really? I- And just, uh, continuing a career as a, as a bartender, uh, for some bar down in Turks and Caicos. It's a career.
0:41
I can't blame you, man. Blue waters. It's gorgeous. Oh, what a time. White, white sandy beaches. Fantastic. You, were you there, were you there long... Well, I guess you just answered it.
0:50
I was gonna say, were you there so long that you were like, "Okay, maybe I can't do this any longer"? Um- Or- The problem is when you go somewhere for a long period of time, right?
0:57
You have those, those first few days where you're kinda getting settled in, and then you get very used to things. Yes.
1:03
Like, the idea o- of removing yourself from the day-to-day life that, that you've, uh, grown accustomed to over the first few days, uh, that, that was a bit challenging.
1:12
Do you have that person in your life, I do, uh, Debra Song, fashion stylist, who, who claims that I cannot check out on an island? And I'm always like, "Oh, yes, I can." Oh, no, yeah, yes. Yes, I can. Yes.
1:20
But, but I will say it's like, uh, it's like a Jekyll and Hyde thing, right?
1:23
Because during the day, completely checked out, and then I'd be fu- uh, furious trying to figure out how to watch NBA games and stuff that night.
1:32
That was a li- a little bit more of an issue than I thought it was gonna be.
1:34
Well, speaking of which, your, your travels to, uh, Turks and Caicos did not prevent you from, uh, doing very well in this VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, which is continuing.
1:45
Vsin.com/challenge for all who, uh, wanna see the standings here. Uh, right now, as we get to the very end of the first round, or we're getting to the, we believe here, to the end of the first round.
1:56
Of course, the Clippers and Nuggets series is the one outlier that's two to two. Um, Doug Kazerian, 14 and three. Ooh. Stevie Fezzik, 13 and seven.
2:07
You are in third at 11 and six, with JBT right on your heels at 11 and seven. How about that? How about that? It's been- Kelly Bidlin. It's been a good first round so far.
2:16
Yeah, I, I think I mentioned, uh, on my final days here, Vegas was ushering me out of town. It was, uh, it's been good so far.
2:22
Hit JT, Justin Thomas, as soon as I left, so that was three golf outright hits in the, that past four tournaments. That was nice. And then, uh, NBA first round betting has been awesome so far.
2:31
If the Clippers can, uh, win this series, it will be an excellent first round. Well, that's the thing, right? So, you know, I was reminded of this last night watching the, uh, the Stars and the Avalanche in hockey.
2:42
The, the Avalanche in that series, and this is somewhat anecdotal but not really, I couldn't find one hockey person, right? Who thought that the Avalanche w- uh, who thought that the Stars were gonna win this series.
2:54
They haven't yet. It's three to two, Stars. Um, and obviously there were injuries too involved in that.
2:58
But still, the, all the hockey hardos, I, I don't under- one person, I didn't hear one person give the Stars a chance in this series. And the NBA equivalent of that is, um, the Clippers and the Pistons, largely. Mm.
3:12
Anecdotal to some degree, but I think that's kind of the consensus. Pistons down three to one in a series where, quite frankly, that should be two to two.
3:19
Um, but it nonetheless down three to one, and now the Clippers, who play tonight. Tonight it's, it's four games in the NBA, three of which are potential closeouts, uh, in the Eastern Conference.
3:29
Uh, all, all series in the East are of the three to one variety. The Pacers look to close out the Bucs. The Knicks look to close out the Pistons. Um, and the Celtics look to close out the Magic.
3:42
By the way, Pacers eight and a half point favorites, Knicks five and a half point favorites, Boston 11 and a half point favorites in those respective series. And then it is the Clippers and the, uh, the Nuggets tonight.
3:51
The only two to two through four games in the entire NBA playoffs, with the Clip Show as a one and a half point road favorite. Do you have a play in any of these tonight? You know what?
4:02
I'd love to come back and be really exciting, Gil, but no, I have no bets at all tonight, uh- In any of them... in any of these four games. Yeah, nothing so far. Um, look, I think there are...
4:11
The Clip- the Clippers at this point, I'm just gonna be, I'm just gonna be riding my series bets with them.
4:15
I, I do think that we are, now that you're kind of looking at a best of three in that series, with Denver home court, I was surprised after game four what we saw series price get reposted as.
4:25
I thought it was gonna be a little bit closer, uh, to a coin flip. Still get money, uh, plus money on Denver. I wouldn't be w- I would still like the Clippers.
4:33
I think the Clippers should ha- uh, be up at least three-one in this series. But man, you're talking about best of three now with Nikola Jokic on one side, and you get two games in Denver po- potentially.
4:44
A- that's scary. I, I, uh, would be leaning, game-wise would be leaning to the Clippers tonight, but man, I really, I really don't have much there.
4:51
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Nuggets go home and look, look solid, uh, in Denver. I think the Celtics ca- take care of business tonight.
4:58
However, if you were gonna bet it, I think all series long, and I've made a couple of these, it'd be Magic or nothing. I just don't know how you can lay all these points.
5:05
Um, especially when you look at such, at such a short total between those two teams with Magic-Celtics. Uh, I wouldn't be running to lay the points, but I do think the Celtics get done.
5:13
Bucs, Pacers, Pistons, Knicks I think are interesting tonight. I could see Knicks winning big. I think they go home. I think they've stolen momentum a bit. I think they could put up a big number on Detroit, uh, tonight.
5:25
But yet no, but yet no play from you. No play yet. I'm waiting to see where this number goes. If it hits five, it'd probably be a bet on for me.
5:32
And then the other one I'm waiting to see where this number goes is Bucs-Pacers. I think that there is, I think there's a lot of people running to overreact to Da- uh, Damian Lillard being out and Bucs season's done.
5:42
Yes, Bucs season is probably done, but when you're talking about catching seven and a half, eight points with this Bucs team, who keep in mind played a lot of basketball without Damian Lillard toward the end of the season and really saw their offense come into form, um- I think this might get over-adjusted a little bit.
5:59
I'm gonna be watching this one today. It would be Bucs or nothing for me there from the game. But Pacers, Pacers series bet for me. I'll, I'll be rooting on that one getting home.
6:06
Um, I'm curious what your thoughts are on these other two three-ones out west specifically. Obviously the Cavaliers and the, uh, Thunder respective one seeds completing their sweep, so they move on to the second round.
6:17
But the, uh, the three-one series in the West are not built like the three-one series in the East because in, in all cases of the three-one series in the East, it is the home team, or excuse me, the, the lower seed, if you will.
6:29
Pardon me. I always get a lower and higher seed messed up.
6:31
The higher seed, uh, who came in with the home court advantage, they get chances to win it in game five tonight, and then if that fails, they have game six and seven to, to still, uh, get that opportunity, seven being back at home.
6:43
Out West, it is the h- it is the lower seeds that have the three to one lead, right? Respectively, the Timberwolves, the six seed with a three games to one lead over the Lakers.
6:53
Um, game f- game five headed back to the Lakers, uh, to, to LA rather, with Minnesota only getting home court, of course, in game six. That's how it works when you are the lower seed.
7:03
Same will be the case with the Warriors, uh, as they head into game five at Houston, not tonight of course, but only game six back in San Francisco.
7:11
So it's a little different, uh, uh, a little bit different of an alchemy obviously in those series. But I'm curious, because of that, do, does a adjusted series price on either the Lakers or the Warriors interest you?
7:24
Excuse me, excuse me, pardon me. The Lakers or the Rockets interest you at all? The, uh, Rockets are what? About a pl- a seven to one shot. Is that right? Six to one, let's call it.
7:34
And the Lakers are p- Lakers are only b- you're only getting plus 350 on the Lakers to come back from a three to one deficit. Do either of those series prices, adjusted series prices interest you?
7:45
That, that Lakers price is a joke. Um- It is. Total joke... Rockets I would be much more interested in the, in than the Lakers.
7:52
I think you've got some w- I, I, I mean w- Warriors game, and we'll talk about it from last night, it was incredible.
7:58
But Jimmy, you know, Jimmy Butler, you do have to say he looked, he looked very much injured, playing through, playing injured through a lot of that game before fourth quarter Jimmy shows up and kind of puts things away.
8:08
But- 27 points, 12 of 12 from the stripe... but I, I think there's still questions and concerns about that going forward, and this Rockets team, look, they, they gotta have.
8:17
They, we knew this was gonna be a problem heading into this. Where is this, where's the consistent offense gonna come from?
8:22
And Jalen Green, when you do nothing like you did last night, it's gonna be very tough for this team to win basketball games. But w- we see them dominating Golden State, uh, you know, on the offensive glass.
8:32
Steven Adams with huge games. They've unlocked something there, uh, a little bit, which is gonna give you extra possessions, extra opportunities. And in a playoff-type atmosphere, that is massive.
8:42
So I look, I think, yes, Warriors probably get it done still, but if I had to bet on one of those, it would be Rockets.
8:47
And one, the one I'll bring up with the Lakers, Gil, I don't, I feel like this is a lot more the national media perspec- uh, y- uh, rhetoric that I've heard the past couple days. But what, what did...
8:58
Like, the Timberwolves have been constructed and have constructed this roster since the Karl-Anthony Towns trade. There is no, there should be no surprise about Minnesota having a three-one lead over the Lakers.
9:09
Everybody's freaking out about the Lakers' season possibly coming to an end. The trade wasn't for this year, Gil. [laughs] The trade was for the future of what to happen with the Lakers.
9:18
I, I have pointed that out a few times in your eyes. It's driving me insane. Everybody's like, "Well, they traded for Luka. What a disaster. What a disaster." [laughs] Ke- Kelly's getting very angry.
9:25
I can't believe how much I'm hearing of this. It's like- Yeah, if you had less than one segment for Kelly to get angry, it cashes...
9:30
the, I mean, the Lakers are playing w- they're essentially playing in my mind with house money this postseason. Like this, this roster is a nightmare. Every... JJ Redick getting killed for playing those guys- Oh...
9:41
every minute in the second half, I don't necessarily blame him, Gil- You-... because where else is he supposed to turn to? You can't. You, and, and w- you have four guys scoring almost all your points.
9:49
It's not a recipe for, for long-term success this year. Back to your Jalen Green points. This is the four games in this series. Seven points, 38 points, nine points, and eight points. Yeah.
10:00
Um, that ain't gonna get it done. Last night, by the way, Butler 27, as I mentioned, on 12 of 12, uh, shooting from the line. Podziemski, what a game. 26 points, six of 11 from behind the arc.
10:11
Uh, Curry with only 17, so it was not a big Steph Curry game, and somehow the Warriors figure it out in the end. Uh, in defeat, Alperen Sengun, 31 and 10, dominating whenever he sort of wants to.
10:23
Um, he just backs up to the basket and gets it done. Didn't on the last shot. VanVleet, I mean, this was a game that the Rockets just squandered from, from Fred VanVleet. Yeah.
10:33
25 points on eight of 12 shooting from behind the arc, and that 12th was the desperation one to try to tie it. He was just insane. But the Rockets were only 19 of 31 from the stripe.
10:44
So that had a lot of bearing on the game last night as well.
10:46
Uh, in a game where Golden State was down seven at the half and started the, the third quarter on an 18 to one run, and still, you know, were down late, figured out a way to win it.
10:56
Just an unbelievable, uh, an outcome there. It didn't get the cover, though, as many of us who had the Warriors minus three and a half lamented. Mm-hmm. But they do win by three, and I... It just feels like
11:09
they might not be the better basketball team, but they're the most ex- they're the much more experienced, and that's what the handicap was coming into this series, and so far it's manifested.
11:17
I mean, just look at the end of that game last night, right? Kerr, awesome. Going to, going to hack Adams to get him off the court. Genius.
11:22
But Jimmy Butler showing up in the fourth quarter, that's what you bring him in for. And then Draymond Green, shut down defense at the end of that game to seal it. Uh, Mark Borchers on the show to talk baseball with us.
11:31
Paul Carr, Champions League. Drew Dinsick on the NBA and tennis. We'll talk Browns week one starter odds. Uh, some hypothetical round two series odds in the NBA. We'll get to those on the other side.
11:43
It's the Numbers Game at Beason. The eSports betting network. Kelly's back.
11:46
[upbeat music]A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
A special Numbers Game investigation reveals that this Saturday is the first Saturday in May. Yeah, I know, really, we figured it out.
12:08
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12:15
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12:25
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12:32
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12:45
Mike Semich will be on the show to talk Derby with us on Wednesday. Or excuse me, on Thursday, pardon me. He's booked up on Wednesday, so we get him Thursday. That's right.
12:53
And then, uh, Chris Fallica, The Bear, doing, uh, some Derby talk with us on Friday. Looking forward to that. I don't think I'm ever gonna forget now, uh, ever, ever when the Derby is, but especially this one.
13:04
Do you remember the promo we were recording with, uh, Fallica on standby waiting on air, uh, waiting, uh, waiting to, to come on air with us, and was hearing everything we were saying?
13:12
Gil and I were recording a promo where it was just me and him talking, but none of the audio was gonna be used. [laughs] And we knew Chris could hear everything we were saying.
13:19
[laughs] So we were just talking trash about, about the Derby and horse racing. Yeah. That's right. And Fallica comes on, he's so furious at both of us. [laughs] Ah, the hijinks here. Sophomore hijinks.
13:30
The first sentence was, "It's the first Saturday in May, Kelly." [laughs] We get, we get tweets at Beating The Book. This is from Ray, Ray393939.
13:38
He says, "If the Rockies win 30 games this year," and by the way, the Rockies fell to 4 and 24 yesterday.
13:44
He says, "If the Rockies win 30 games this year and the Dodgers/Padres or Giants win 100 plus, the Rockies would finish 70 plus games back in the division." That checks out, Ray. It does.
13:54
"Wouldn't this be the worst team ever in professional sports?" Well, any way you slice it up, if they keep on this pace, they would be the worst team, uh, in baseball history for sure.
14:05
As far as other sports, well, there's some competition. Like 4 and 24. Yikes. They're on pace to win less than 24 games now, fewer than 24 games. It's insane.
14:15
Like, it's hard, it's almost hard to just stumble into a record that bad. Uh, Kenots, Jay Calphona, "Gil, I asked Kelly the same, but do you have any idea or connects to see why Hard Knocks preseason is no longer?
14:27
My G-Men ruined it, ruined it all for h- for, ruined it for all, huh?" They kind of did.
14:33
Uh, the Joe Shane, Saquon Barkley thing was such an epic disaster and window into the worst thing that could happen with football teams and player personnel, that it kind of did.
14:44
I don't think anybody wants to do that again. Yeah, I looked it up quick before the show. They, uh, yeah, it was offered. Nobody wants to do it, right? I don't think anybody's gonna do it again.
14:52
And then wasn't the pivot to go to college football, and they wanted to do Belichick with North Carolina? Yes. But I think he, they, they passed on that, right? That's got Lombardi's fingerprints all over it.
15:02
[laughs] Uh, Ron Ponywas, who, Jr. Oh yes, you're right, Ron. Uh, Belichick Saban documentary. I mentioned the Parcells S- I mentioned it as a Parcells Saban doc, but you're correct, it was Belichick Saban.
15:13
That's what I meant.
15:14
Primetimecowboys_cubs1, "Yo, hey man, when I become king, my first rules, the word pivotal should never again be used to describe a playoff game, and two, when an NFL player is cut, team must include in its press release the video of said team war room and team execs slurping one another."
15:29
Yeah, that whole, the whole slurping in a, in the war rooms has got to go. [laughs] LosVegas514, "Yo, welcome back young Kelly.
15:36
Please tell us you didn't get banned from the luxurious Ritz Carlton Casino in Turks and Caicos with another one of your famous blackjack runs." Nope. Nope, still good there. Still good there.
15:44
That, uh, quote unquote casino is a room, by the way. Oh, is it? [laughs] Yes. I- I've never been over there... I might have been inside it. [laughs] JasonH11, "Kelly's back.
15:53
Make sure you tell the story about landing the big old fish." Yeah, we saw the picture of you landing the big old fish.
15:57
I don't wanna brag or anything, Gil, but I'm quite an expert fisherman, and I was able to reel in quite a wahoo. Quite a wahoo, okay? Is that what they, is that what they say, wahoo? That's [laughs] what it was.
16:06
And I was, we had a good fishing day. Good for you. Good for you, man. Me and my brother. Was it a struggle? Did you, did you fight with it? Yeah, I was fighting it for like 30 something minutes. Really?
16:13
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. It was ter- it was ter- I was having my brother feed, feed me beers. I needed beer breaks. I was like, "Quick, get, get the bottle over here." Really? Oh, yeah. Yes. Oh. Dead serious.
16:20
That's fantastic. My arm was in pain for, I don't, like a day and a half afterward. Did you think you were gonna lose at one point?
16:27
I don't wanna say lose, but like, I, the thing you don't wanna do in those deep sea fishing stuff- [laughs]... is, is, is be the guy who quits and needs someone to step in. Of course not.
16:35
So like, but I got, I got close, Gil. I was, I was way for it. Good for you. The arm was, the arm was in pain. You know, if you're into that kind of thing. Yeah.
16:42
Uh, Bob Sacamano, "When are we getting your picks for most MLB wins in May? Also, don't sell your April Twins pick short. You also gave out the Mets 12 to 1 and the Red Sox 7 to 1, both of which I took."
16:54
Yeah, look, so do we, can we flash those up? Do we put those in? This is where the, uh, March, April standings stand, if you will, right now, with two days, two games left for everybody.
17:04
By the way, it's one of these rare times where all four teams that are still involved in this have played the exact, uh, amount of games. They've, they've all played an equal amount of games.
17:13
That d- doesn't usually work out with the schedule on these. Uh, but it did for these four teams. They've each got two games left.
17:20
The Mets are 20 and 9, the Giants are one game back at 19 and 10, uh, each, and the Tigers are 18 and 11, I believe that is. 18 and 11 it is. Yeah, 18 and 11. My bad. Okay. Uh, Mets have two games at home versus Arizona.
17:35
Tough opponent, but the Mets have been good at home, but that's a tough opponent. Giants have two at San Diego, Dodgers two at home versus the Marlins after their come from ahead win over the Marlins yesterday.
17:45
And the Tigers, while two games back, they're the best in the run differential column. So now what does that mean? What that means is that William Hill/Caesars ties result in a dead heat.
17:57
You never want that Um, but at Circa, if you did it at Circa, it's a tiebreaker. The tiebreaker is gonna be fewest losses, but because they've all played the same number of games, that does not come into play here.
18:07
If it's a tie, they're both gonna have the same record, and the second tiebreaker is run differential. So that's why the Tigers are still alive here. But if the Mets win tonight
18:18
or either of their final two games, the Dodgers are probably the quickest one to be eliminated at Circa, right? Because- Right... they're not gonna win on run differential. But all four of these could dead heat.
18:28
It could be a few of them, it could be two of them. Uh, we'll see. That's where it stands right now. Mets, Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, and for me, the minimal self-loathing will be if the Dodgers or Tigers win it.
18:39
Man, talk about the, just the difference in shops, right? With two games left to play- Yes... of how much more alive you feel if you've got a Tigers ticket [laughs]- Oh, yeah... uh, here in Circa.
18:49
Now, to, to answer your question though, Bob, uh, and thank you for the kind note about, uh, that I, I shouldn't sell my Twins or the Mets, because I had the Mets raised to 10. That's what he's referring to. Hmm.
18:59
So I bet them in the wrong market, which is why I would be terribly h- h- you know, hating myself if the Mets win this. Um, but it has come out, William Hill Caesars just put out their May numbers late last night.
19:12
I have looked at them. I have done my research. We haven't seen them yet from Circa, pardon me, or MGM. We will do a whole thing on this tomorrow. I already have the team I think I'm gonna play. I have five candidates.
19:25
I've already picked the one, but we'll go through all five. Brad Magnus, "Yo, is this potentially Giannis' last game with the Bucks? I don't see how they can keep him and then lose him in free agency."
19:33
He's still under contract for one more year, isn't he? Hmm, believe so. I believe so.
19:38
Dan Groeschel, "I have a few poor choices currently sitting in my portfolio, but I'm trying to figure out which is worse, betting the Rockies over 58 and a half wins pre-flop or eating gas station sushi?"
19:49
Yeah, [laughs] that's not good. Rockies, they're not getting to 58 and a half wins. Chris Heath, "Would I have needed Kelly's rant to start at the beginning of this segment to cash the under one and a half?
19:58
Just, uh, asking." Uh, we'll get to more of your tweets. I just wanna get to these potential, uh, NBA series, round two series match-ups and what you think, Kelly. And we'll do this with Drew later, too.
20:09
But with all the ming three to ones, with the exception of the, uh, the Clippers and the Nuggets, if Indiana, let's, let's, let's advance everybody who has the three to one leads.
20:19
So Indiana would then, the four seed, would then take on Cleveland. Cleveland will be a prohibited favorite in that series, or would you consider an Indiana bet?
20:29
Oh man, I think that's gonna be a tough one, uh, for me to have a bet on, because I think the price is gonna be attractive on Indiana, who I think has a puncher's chance, if you will. Okay. Yeah.
20:42
I, I, this Cavs team, though, I'm gonna stop, like, I, underestimating this year. They, they have, they have looked the part throughout the entirety of the regular season.
20:51
Um, absolutely dismantled the Miami Heat the last two games, and just something you don't see out of the Miami Heat, right? Really, uh, really dying there in the last couple games.
21:01
I, I, I don't think it's one I'll be involved in, but it would, it, it would be, it would have to be a Pacers plus games with the, uh, you know, plus money or p- or, or nothing for me.
21:10
Uh, for those who missed it, Cleveland beat Miami by 55 points last night, uh, in game four to complete the sweep. It's the fourth largest playoff win in, uh, NBA playoff history.
21:21
They won the four games by a combined 122 points. That is the most ever for a playoff series. Um, just an unbelievable, I mean, they, they led yesterday 35 to eight, and at one point 70 to 25.
21:33
They would have had the biggest win in playoff history in terms of margin, except for a five to nothing Heat tear at the end that prevented that.
21:41
I, I, I think the, y- the other thing you're seeing, I think the difference with this team as, as in your, uh, compared to years past, Gil, is really, is the coaching. Like, it, it's what, what's going on?
21:50
We've got JB Bickerstaff in Detroit right now, and he's been outcoached by Tibbs on the other side i- in Detroit. I wanna say it was all his fault for what's happened to the Cavs in post-seasons past, but
22:02
y- y- you're looking at a very different Cavaliers team that made adjustments halfway through the Miami series that were huge, that led them to, uh, to that sweep.
22:10
With apologies to the Pistons, Knicks are up three to one. Knicks-Boston, right, if both close out.
22:15
Knicks-Boston, the three-two, what would the, would that series price be longer on the Celtics than it would be for the Cavaliers, or shorter? Oh man, great question.
22:25
Um- Either way, would you, would you wanna take a flyer on the Knicks or not at all? What- Pos- possibly. Gotta see. I mean, this, this Boston team's banged up right now.
22:33
You got multiple injuries at multiple different, at multiple different parts. Who are you more likely to take a flyer on, the Pacers versus the, the Cavs or the Knicks versus the Celtics? Pacers, probably. Okay.
22:44
We'll do the West one. And Mark Borchardt on baseball next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network coming back. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, it's thesharpplays.com. They also have AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros.
23:06
Check 'em out, why don't you, at sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. One, one other hypothetical here, 'cause we didn't really get too far into it in the East.
23:15
But if we were to extend the three to ones, and just for giggles here. Now, I know these series are not nearly over, I don't think, but who knows?
23:24
Um, as much as I love the Dubs, respect to the, to, to both the, uh, the, the Lakers and the Rockets, even though they're both down three to one.
23:32
But if it is the T-Wolves, the six seed, home court against the seven seed Warriors, who are both up three to one, what will the series price be?
23:42
Keep in mind, the Warriors were high with, I think we saw a minus 200, but basically they were consensus minus 180 against the two seed Rockets pre-flop. What will the series price be against the T-Wolves?
23:54
Warriors minus 120. I'll go with that. How about that? Oh, it'll be that, it'll be that short, huh? Yeah, I think so. I, I think Minnesota's a, a challenging matchup for them.
24:03
It's gonna be, I think, I, I got some, it'll be a very, very interesting... series if that plays out.
24:09
'Cause I think we're seeing, uh, a lot of what Minnesota's doing right now with the Lakers, so you're gonna be able to...
24:14
The big question is Go- is Golden State gonna be able to play Minnesota's size off the court, or is the size that they're gonna be able to lean on going to be what puts Minnesota over the edge?
24:24
That would be the b- that'll be the, uh, the big, uh, the big thing in that series. When are y'all ever gonna learn with the Dubs? When are you gonna learn? Okay, see, different matter.
24:32
But up until then, I think they got a shot to, to advance.
24:35
Ryan Hyatt, we get tweets, "While it's great to have Kelly back on the Numbers Game with Gil, we need to drop the charade and have a full accounting of Kelly's suspension thinly disguised as a, quote-unquote, 'vacation' with AI-generated photos and social media posts."
24:47
By the way, here is the AI-generated photo that he's referring to. This is Kelly, uh, after a 30-minute battle with this fish. Winner. "I win," he says. Boom. Yeah, look at, look at my, look at my brother to the right.
24:59
He's got two wimpy barracudas. That's your brother on the right? That's my brother on the right. Yeah? The great Adam Bidlin, pharmacist.
25:05
[laughs] I don't think, I don't think this entire time you've ever mentioned your brother. [laughs] Man, this, this is the whole idea of the trip.
25:12
We have, the family never sees each other, man, so it was- Who, who's my guy on the left? Uh, th- that's my stepfather, Dale. Oh. Off to, off to the left, man. Oh, Dale. Expert fisherman right there. Dale and Adam.
25:21
Uh, Uncle Bush, I wanted to, uh, I waited till Kelly came back to use this, uh, to use his so much more than a producer skills to find the guest audio that suggested he, his Rockies over win total bet 58 and a half on March 27th.
25:34
I know this because I tailed. Oy vey. Did you have over on the Rockies? No. I don't, I don't remember that either. This man's not making baseball plays.
25:41
Brad Magnus, "Yes, Giannis does have another year, but do the Bucks trade him this off-season instead of letting him walk? They could get more this off-season compared to the trade deadline next year.
25:49
Bucks can't have an Angels Otani situation." If you're to take Giannis at his word, he won't go anywhere. But who knows?
25:55
It, it's, it's the biggest, uh, like that is the single biggest thing actually to come out of that Damian Lillard injury. It's not what happens to the Bucks this year. Right.
26:02
It's what happens to the Bucks over the summer. 'Cause it, it's been, this has been heating up for the past couple off-seasons, and yeah, I th- I think they'll be having some serious conversations this summer.
26:11
Sam Ginsburg, "It's good to have Kelly back, but you missed the headline. I believe while away, he actually did officially change his name to The Vacationing Kelly Bidlin." Yes, he did.
26:19
[laughs] Now you've got that reputation.
26:21
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's kind enough to join us from an undisclosed dis- uh, undisclosed location in the desert, I should say, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line to talk some baseball with us.
26:29
It's Mark Borchardt. How you doing, Mark? Gil, I was in tears laughing, uh, about a minute ago because Kelly's [laughs] Kelly, he's a producer for this gambling talk show. Brother's a pharmacist.
26:43
Here you are the host, the voice of sports betting, by the way, when nothing wrong with that, but it, your brother's a doctor. I just thought that was really funny. Yeah, we're the- The parallels there, yeah...
26:51
we're the ones that mom and dad are proud of. Oh, yeah, yeah, don't worry, Mark. Not pictured, my sister, the biomedical engineer for, uh, for Phillips, okay? Also a doctor. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. So there's that.
27:02
So there's that, yeah. Um, Mark, I asked Paul Spor yesterday, I was like, "Hey, uh, Rockies on pace to go, uh, 24 and 138. Do you think they'll get there?" I just wanna ask you a different way.
27:12
Think they'll ever win again? How bad is this? In your, in your lifetime metrics here, how bad is this getting?
27:19
Um, I think that they're better than what they've performed, um, from a, from a paper standpoint, just fr- t- talking from a betting standpoint.
27:26
If you look at, like, the combined, because this is a good question 'cause it's like, well, are they gonna have the worst record or the White Sox?
27:32
Kind of like the, from a, from a expected, uh, runs scored per game minus, uh, runs against per game, and you look at the Rockies, and they're, they're pretty bad.
27:43
They're minus 1.5, but the, the White Sox are minus 2.4 based on, you know, the aggregation of statistical analysis I do.
27:51
And so, like, I'm s- I think that there's probably good value in the, in the market right now, um, with the White Sox with the worst record 'cause they, they, they are awful on paper, um.
28:01
So yeah, so I sh- you're right, I should point that out. Rockies are four and 24, but the Ri- the White Sox are seven and 21, only three games better.
28:09
We were throwing around in the group ch- in the group text last night, we were throwing around, if you had to put a combined
28:15
adjusted season win total on the Rockies and White Sox combined, what would that be right at the moment?
28:22
And the number we came up with, I'm gonna guess you're gonna disagree with this, but the number we came up with was 94 and a half. So one wins 50- Hmm... and one's win 40, one wins 45, let's say.
28:35
Well, I got, I got the White Sox at 48, and I gotta scroll down to the, to the Rockies at 53. Oh. So that would be, I guess, whatever that is, 101. 101. 101. Little higher. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. 101. Yeah.
28:46
Uh, what did you land on today, sir? Well, I'm gonna go with a, a base winner parlay, and, uh, surprise, surprise, but I, I really like today's parlay. I'm gonna go with, with Philadelphia, with Wheeler.
28:58
Uh, he's my base winner number four with an offense that's the number two, uh, in, in baseball. And I'm gonna play them, uh, with, with Boston, it's Crochet. He's, he's my number five guy with a number four offense.
29:11
I think that's, that's pretty good right there. And, and if you put it in a parlay, uh, it'll pay about plus 155. You know, one of the things that's interesting about, uh, the, uh,
29:22
I wanted to say the, I was gonna say the Eagles, but they're not the Eagles, they're the Phillies. I've got my Phillies shirt on.
29:27
Is their record at home is, is really good, and this, this is since they've, they've installed the humidors in 2022 a- across baseball. And the Phillies are 172 and 101. Uh, return on investment, 4.9%.
29:43
And, and I can say that because Carl Sach and Killer Sports does such a good job putting that together. But I thought that was a pretty, uh, impressive stat, how good Philly has been a- at home.
29:54
And it, it kind of makes, and we've talked about this a little bit on the show, uh, the analytics department there, I'm super impressed.
30:00
They have this guy, uh, he's a Bayesian statistician, and he's known outside the baseball community. He's like a, he's like this famous Bayesian, uh, e-[laughs] I wanna say economist, but, but statistician.
30:11
And, uh, so they put together this team, and they're, they're really good at home.
30:15
And the other thing about Wheeler that I c- I kinda wanted to mention was, uh, you know, I wanted to tell the story of, of I was i- i- in Binion's one time, uh, in a drunken stupor playing cards.
30:27
And I remember when Randy Johnson, he was pitching, and he was really, really good. And the guy said, "Well, who are you gonna b- who are you gonna bet on tomorrow?" The guy I was playing cards with.
30:34
And I said, "I'm gonna bet against Johnson." I thought I was clever, right? You know, well, you always gotta get the underdog. And the guy looked at me like, like the world was coming to an end.
30:43
He said, "How can you bet against, how can you bet against a Hall of Fame pitcher like that?"
30:47
And so I thought, well, you know, today for this morning, I'm gonna go look at a Hall of Fame pitcher, the most recent one, Clayton Kershaw.
30:54
And if you were just to blanket bet Clayton Kershaw over his career, speaking of 5%, you'd ab- you'd be up close to 5% on your money just, just, uh, betting Kershaw.
31:04
So I, I think if you have this Hall of Fame type of a pitcher, uh, I don't think there's anything wrong with, with, with backing the guy, Gil. Um, so again, the parlay is what again, for, for those who missed it?
31:15
Uh, Bo- Philly and Boston. Philly and Boston. I missed one, the... Yeah. Yeah. Um, let me ask you this. You also threw in the Killer Sports thing. What do you primarily use Killer Sports for?
31:23
People might be interested in that. Well, I th- I like the home and away splits that, that he has there. There's so many ways to use it too.
31:29
It's like I, I use it for a, a variety of ways, but, but particularly the home, home and away splits. Uh, I use it for, uh, hits average, that sort of thing.
31:38
There's, there's a lot of things, uh, you can, you can do with it.
31:41
In fact, uh, you know, I've, I consider myself pretty adept at, at, at using, uh, handicapping tools, and I, I don't even think I've scratched the surface on that one, Gil. That's Carl Sack and killersports.com.
31:53
That's, uh, it, just great job that he does over there.
31:56
Um, and by the way, a, uh, cash if you had Bayesian or Bayesian as most people pronounce it, uh, a Bayesian, uh, drop from, uh, from Mark Borchardt here on the show, by the way, at Basewinner, basewinner.com.
32:08
Do you have a straight bet for us here before we leave? Oh, why not? Let's go with, uh, the Yankees minus 145. I'll lay the sauce here.
32:17
You know, Rodon is 90% stuff plus, and he's been able to use the stuff plus number to get the strikeouts. He's in the 96th percentile there, and, and I'm good with that.
32:27
I, I think that the, uh, the, the bullpen, although Williams has struggled, uh, if you look at, like, the collection of the numbers, uh, i- i- in the, uh, the, the most optimal, I think, sample size, I've got them fifth in baseball with the fifth offense in baseball, uh, against Kyle Gibson, and I don't think that anybody would, would compare him to Randy Johnson.
32:47
You, you're looking at a stuff plus number in the eighth percentile. So I think that laying the sauce here with, with Rodon is, is justified. Okay.
32:55
Um, before we let you go here, so the, the May numbers, May most wins is about to come out. It has already at William Hill Caesars.
33:01
It should come out at Circa and MGM, I'm assuming, as they have, uh, been want to do, maybe DraftKings as well, though DraftKings begged out after the first month last year.
33:10
Uh, are you in any way interested in, in, in betting on this kind of thing? You haven't yet. Oh, I think it, I think it's a cool bet actually. I, you know, I, I, I guess May is coming up.
33:18
I'll have to run the simulations. I could actually run it for the month and then come up with something. There it is. I think I'll tweet that out for everybody, yeah. And what, would... Uh, do me a favor.
33:26
Don't do it until tomorrow after our show here. [laughs] So we can, I can do my thing, and we'll get my bet, and then I'm curious what you'll do after that. Okay, cool. Yeah, yeah, definitely.
33:34
I'll, I'll, I'll run it and tweet it out to, after your show. There you go. Mark Borchardt @basewinner, basewinner.com. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it as always. My pleasure.
33:42
Uh, we will come back, some Champions League with Paul Carr next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Derby day is almost here. Why not make your first bet your best bet with First Bet?
34:00
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34:13
Don't miss out. Bet smarter on the derby with firstbet.com. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate y'all. Best listeners in the game. Keno Walker wants to say welcome back to you.
34:23
Uh, welcome back, welcome back, welcome back. I think he's doing a little John Sebastian, uh, Welcome Back, Carter, Carter there. Mm. Sure, yeah. Sure. You don't- Totally...
34:31
you don't know what Welcome Back, Carter is, do you? Nah, like, I, like, I do, but I don't. Okay. It's one of those I know the name. John Travolta's first acting. Really? Yeah, it was a TV show in the '70s. I, okay.
34:42
And the song. Yeah. Oh, anyway, uh, NewYorkMet16. Kelly's like- No, like I like actually picture it now that you bring it up... yeah. I could, I could picture him. It was, uh, up your nose with a rubber hose.
34:52
He was Vinnie Barbarino. That was his character's name. Anyway, the song was Welcome Back.
34:55
Uh, Scott, NewYorkMet16, "Never to wish one ill, but with the Mets and Giants looming in most wins for April, uh, that would cap a rough stretch for you, Gil, with being on the wrong side of the half point several times in the basketball contest too.
35:08
Just means May is turnaround month." I hope you're right. Uh, this is from RichPSM, "Regarding the Rockies over 59 wins," that was Jason Weingarten's call. Yes, not you, Kelly Biblin. Jason Weingarten.
35:20
He said Colorado should be able to find that many wins, so even Michelangelo has a bad painting. Should we buy low now [laughs] on, uh, on that? Um, on Jason, yes. On, uh, on the Rockies, no.
35:31
By the way, speaking to Jason, Jason is on the show tomorrow as he always is on Wednesdays. Kelly's smiling already. Maybe we'll bring Paul Carr in this for, Paul Carr for this as well.
35:39
Paul Carr here to talk Champions League with us and his Champions League bets. Maybe the greatest, uh, four semifinalists ever in Champions League history.
35:46
Paul Carr joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from Topeka, Kansas. So, uh, Paul, I just wanna start by saying before we get into your soccer, so Jason's coming on the show tomorrow.
35:54
Jason has been obsessed with three things over the course of the last week, and he will not- Uh-oh... stop talking about these things. Uh- Okay... Sha'dor Sanders' slide was one of them. Sure. Um, Bill- Understandable...
36:06
Bill Belichick's girlfriend, which- I didn't, I didn't really care about until- [laughs]... like she made a big deal of the 60 Minutes interview and she was chiming in. She's like, "We're not talking about that."
36:16
I'm like, "Oh, what is this?" Oh, I think for- Yeah... I, for three guys here that have worked in media for a long time, I think it's extremely fascinating. [laughs] It is. I, I, I'm with Jason on this one.
36:25
And, uh, 'cause we were also sold the bill of goods that they met in the airplane. Remember that whole thing? Mm-hmm. Yeah. Right.
36:30
Um, and then the third thing that Jason is obsessed with is this viral thing, 100 men versus a gorilla. Which I said yesterday- Oh, no... on the show, right?
36:37
I, I, I, I think all of this is a nonsense conversation because, as you point out, Kelly, first of all, guys have these kinds of conversations all the time. Why this went viral, I have no idea.
36:46
But I said yesterday, there's no chance for the 100 men. The gorilla is completely winning this, and the, the, the line should be minus a bajillion on this. [laughs] But Jason, Jason will come on the show tomorrow.
36:57
He's really serious about this. He said he has a plan. He's been spending an inordinate amount of time on this, a plan for how the 100 men will win.
37:06
Well, well part of this conversation is it's always the, we were talking about it off air, what are the rules? This is why guys have these- Right... types of conversations, right?
37:14
Like, do the human beings get time to plan? Is there any weaponry or tools involved? You can plan all day. It's very soft. You, you can plan as long as you want. And, and what is- You get, you get no tools.
37:23
Yeah, what is winning? Like, how many men can die and the men still win? Exactly. Well, 99 can die, and if you, if the, if then the gorilla dies- Okay... it's a win. So, okay, a- a- Okay...
37:33
and I asked you this, can I sacrifice a human being to build weapons out of his bones? [laughs] You don't have enough time to build weapons out of his bones. Well, well, I know, how much prep time do I have?
37:41
These are the questions that go into this. No, there's no time out. You don't get to call, like, a 20 second time-out. Be like, "Gorilla, hold on for a second. I gotta make a weapons out of this guy."
37:48
They don't get, like, an hour to strategize or anything? I have to, I have to make weapons out of Jim. [laughs] Are we getting average men? You know, this, is this like you and me, or is this like NFL players?
37:57
Well, we'll find out. There's a big difference there. We'll find out. Also a good question. I, I actually don't think that matters, but we'll find out from Jason tomorrow. [laughs] 100 men versus gorilla.
38:05
I would take the 100 people. Sounds like Jason is, uh, Jason may be a little too online. Need to get him outside. The mind of Jason Lingard is a fascinating thing. All right, I just mentioned it moments ago, Paul.
38:14
Um, you think this is the greatest four, uh, Champions League semifinalists ever? I think so. So we're going back to the '92 for the Champions League era.
38:22
Um, I mean, there, you have four of the top six teams in Europe, and pretty much therefore the world, that are left. You have the League One champs in PSG, the likely La Liga champs in Barcelona.
38:33
Inter Milan has been the best Serie A team over the course of the season, though they have stumbled a little lately and may not win the league.
38:38
And you have Arsenal's the second-best team in England, which is generally the deepest league in the world. So you got four of the top six. You know, there's no Liverpool or Bayern, but, you know, you've got that.
38:47
For me, it's also very important to have four teams from four different countries. Yeah. I don't want to see match-ups that I see two to four times a year.
38:55
So you, so you could make a case that, you know, a few years ago there were, like, two Spanish teams in the semis six straight years, I think. Barcelona and Real Madrid, Atletico, some combo of those.
39:05
So you could make a case they, those might be better from a quality standpoint, but those aren't, just aren't the match-ups I want to see.
39:12
So you've got four teams that are basically one seeds, maybe two seeds if this were an NCAA tournament. They're from all different conferences. You get different styles of play.
39:20
This is about as good as it gets from a Champions League perspective. All right. By the way, we can sort of reflect in the odds to win the Champions League, right? If you delved into this.
39:27
Uh, Barcelona two to one, PSG plus 220, Arsenal plus 250, and then Inter Milan is the, uh, the dog of them at plus 450, if you will. Yeah.
39:36
Um, okay, you don't have a play in the Arsenal PSG game, but tell us how you feel this might transpire. Yeah, this is, this is an interesting one. So you have, it's strength against strength.
39:48
PSG has one of the best attacks and pressing
39:52
attacks in the world, and Arsenal has probably the best, most solid defense in the world, though they are missing one of their, their center backs, Gabriel, who's been with them for most of the season. He's out.
40:02
So it's, it's kind of it's still irresistible force, immovable object kind of thing. Uh, and Arsenal handled Real Madrid pretty easily.
40:10
I think we've learned in the past couple weeks Real Madrid probably not as good as they, their talent could've, should've been.
40:16
Uh, not to diminish what Arsenal's done, but just to say this is a, a very different sort of opponent in PSG. Real Madrid does not press your back line. PSG will do that as well as anybody in the world. So
40:27
I, I struggle a lot with this one. I, I, I... You put a gun to my head, I'm taking PSG to win, if I have to pick a side here, at plus 250 or so, plus 240.
40:36
I think that's a pretty good price for a match-up that's close- closer to a toss-up than that. But I don't have a great feel. There's not a lot here that would really surprise me in this game.
40:45
By the way, I buried the headline. You're coming off a sweep, aren't you, in the Premier League? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. Yeah. We're on a sweep. We're cooking. All right.
40:51
So he's, he's taking a pass on the side in the Arsenal PSG match, but you are, but you do have a bet in it. Yeah, I do like Ousmane Dembele's maybe been the best player in the world this year.
41:01
Uh, one of the Ballon d'Or favorites. He's got 32 goals in 44 games for PSG this season. So I have him to score a plus 250.
41:08
I mean, you score the equivalent of a goal, you know, three goals every four games, and you get a pretty decent price on this. Even against an Arsenal defense that's very good.
41:16
Again, PSG will press Arsenal like they really haven't seen much this year. So he's gonna get, you know, a couple opportunities. He's a volume shooter as well. Not afraid to fire from distance for better and worse.
41:26
So he'll have his chances, so plus 250 on a goal for him. That's, that might be the highest it's been all season. I would bet that it is, uh, and I'll take that here. Volume shooter, Kelly, Ousmane Dembele.
41:35
What does that mean in soccer? Like- Means he takes a lot of shots... four, four shots? Means he takes a lot of shots. Oh, yeah. I would, I would say, yeah.
41:41
Yeah, if there's, like, five or more a game, that's, that's a volume shooter, yeah. Do, do you remember which VSAN host used to refer to his dating, uh, prowess as volume shooting? [laughs] Do you remember who that was?
41:50
No, I don't at all. [laughs] The great Greg Peterson. He used to say, "I'm a volume shooter." He just meant, he just meant going out on lots of dates. I'm just telling you what he said. Oh, hoops. Oh, well.
41:59
That was the best. That was his best line ever. Uh, and then he would give you Abilene Christian's entire roster after that. Uh, all right. Barcelona and Inter Milan. You have, you do have a play on the side here.
42:09
Yeah, I feel- Man, I almost feel too good about Barcelona in this one. So mentioned Inter is good, but they are just scuffling the last two, three weeks especially. They're an older team. They're not super deep.
42:19
Uh, Marcus Thuram, one of their starting forwards, may not play in this game, and we just saw them play Bayern Munich, and they obviously advanced past Bayern.
42:26
But they gave up 40 shots and 3.8 expected goals to Bayern over the two legs. Probably pretty fortunate to get through. Everything that Bayern does well, press you, lots of attackers, get numbers forward.
42:37
Barcelona does better, and I just think this game's in Barcelona. I feel like this is trouble for Inter Milan. I like Barcelona laying the goal and a half at plus 160. I just don't see Inter holding up.
42:51
Also, this, mentioned, it's in Barcelona. It's the first leg. Barcelona will not want to go back to Milan with just a one-goal lead 'cause, you know, weird things happen in knockout tournaments.
43:02
So if they're up, you know, a goal late, like Barcelona's gonna press for another one because their best defense is a good attack.
43:08
So Barcelona's defense itself not great, but their attack's so good that I'll lay a goal and a half here at plus 160. All right.
43:14
So today, [clears throat] pardon me, today Ousmane Dembele goal plus 250 in the Arsenal PSG game, and then tomorrow it's Barcelona minus the goal and a half at plus 160 versus Inter Milan.
43:25
Uh, before you go here, Paul, speaking of, uh, the Premier League, which you swept, uh, your last three-pack of picks- Yep... uh, we're at the point in the season, there's four, five games left.
43:34
We know Liverpool's won it all. We know who the teams are- Yep... that are getting relegated. I guess we still have a Champions League four five question. Yes.
43:43
Is that the only thing you'll bet into at this point or, or will there be other opportunities perhaps? Yeah. I was looking at the slate, the weekend slate last night, and it, yeah, it just gets weird. Yeah.
43:54
We're firmly in the point of what does this team have to play for? What does this team not have to play for? Uh, yeah, definitely cautious these last few games.
44:02
And yeah, that race for the top five now and Champions League spots, it's basically five teams for the last three spots. Wow.
44:08
That's the most interesting thing to watch and the most competitive thing from a what are they playing for standpoint.
44:12
Yeah, Newcastle, Man City, Chelsea, and, uh, Nottingham Forest, and I guess Aston Villa also, uh, involved- Yep... in that as well. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. You bet. Have a good one.
44:21
Paul Carr @PaulCarr creatively, C-A-R-R on the old Twitter machine. We'll come back. Drew Dinsick on the NBA and maybe some tennis plays next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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