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Apr 2, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 2, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 2, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, K Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Biddle, everybody, producer number nine.
0:22
So much more than a producer. What's happening? Not much, man. How you doing? You doing okay? I'm doing fantastic. Health-wise, anything you wanna share? No, nope, nope, good.
0:29
Just everything's great, just a fantastic Wednesday. It is Wednesday. It is Wednesday, right? Yeah, Wednesday. Is Wednesday, yeah. [laughs] Okay, just curious if you wanted to share. Uh, on the show today, so much.
0:38
Uh, Nick Whelan will join us.
0:40
Uh, Nick Whelan, who does, uh, Prop Points here on the st- uh, on the, uh, network, will join us, uh, to talk all sports with us, uh, here momentarily, including, well, not beyond props, but also, um, he's also a Rotowire senior analyst, we should say.
0:55
He still does that. But we'll talk multiple sports with him. Uh, we will have Jim Root on from Three Man Weave to talk Final Four with us. I doubt he's betting the college basketball crown, but who knows, maybe he is.
1:06
Mm-hmm. Um- Never know with those Weavers... you never know with the Weavers. Paul Spohrer on baseball, JBT on college and pro hoops, and Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke.
1:15
I also wanna revisit, uh, my theory in Sacramento later on the show. We'll do that. I gotta start, though, with, uh, the NBA. What a banner night. Can we say that now? A blue ribbon night in the NBA. Yeah.
1:27
Does anybody say that anymore? No, probably not. Um, not that I say that either. That was generations before us. But- But I don't think that really works.
1:33
Don't you, don't you have, like, a blue, or is it blue ribbon, like, the prize fair? It's a blue ribbon day. [laughs] That kind of thing.
1:39
Um, first time in NBA history last night that two former MVPs went for 50 on the same night, and the second time in history that any two players have gone for at least 50 points, 10 boards, and five assists on the same night, joining Wilt Chamberlain and Elgin Baylor in 1963.
1:57
I'm of course referring to Nikola Jokic and Steph Curry in their respective games last night. We'll start with Jokic.
2:04
The most points by a player in the NBA this season, 61, and it is also the most points in a triple-double in NBA history. 61, 10 and 10 for Jokic, in defeat, by the way.
2:21
In defeat, in double overtime. By the way, the NBA playoffs, say what you will about the NBA regular season, the NBA playoffs are awesome, and the playoffs kind of felt like it started last night as we- Oh, yeah...
2:31
as we talked about yesterday on the show. Uh, Jokic played 52 minutes, 38 seconds. Who's counting? He didn't leave the court after halftime.
2:40
Actually, after checking back in at the 6:28 mark in the second quarter, he never went to the bench again. I'll do the math for you. That's 40 minutes plus straight that he played, uh, of his 52 minutes plus.
2:53
By the way, there's only been a two other 60-point triple doubles in NBA history. 2022, Luka had one where he went 60, 21, and 10. God bless. Okay.
3:05
Uh, and then James Harden had one, um, in 2018 where he went 60, 11, and 10. Again, last night, though, 61, 10, and 10, the most points in a triple-double in NBA history.
3:16
Uh, the game ended, though, and this is, again, these have big playoff implications in terms of seeding. The T-Wolves had a lot to play for, so did Denver in terms of seeding.
3:24
The T-Wolves basically had two miserable possessions in regulation to end regulation and to end the first overtime.
3:31
And in the second overtime, they seal the win, the Timberwolves do, on a Nickeil Alexander-Walker pair of free throws. He purposely missed the third. The sequence at the end was this. Oh. Den- Denver was up a point.
3:43
They get a steal. Russell Westbrook has the ball. He's got a two, he's got a two on one. He has a choice, um, either pass it to the better free throw shooter and hope for fouls,
3:56
um, or basically, you know, tr- tr- I guess try to, try to pull it out and, and, you know, waste time. The bottom line is he goes in for the layup himself and gaks the layup. Denver gets the board.
4:11
Excuse me- I mean, this is-... Minnesota gets the board. This is high school basketball stuff. They go all the way down court. Clock's running down, and we're in the last seconds. Remember, Denver's up one.
4:20
And, uh, Alexander-Walker shoots a three, and Westbrook fouls him with.1 seconds left on the clock, thus the two free throws made and then the purposely missed one, and the T-Wolves win.
4:34
Uh, Westbrook with the two gaffes at the end. Now, again, the big question, should the Nuggets have not attempted the layup and pulled it back- Absolutely... uh, to run the clock? I think that's the answer.
4:43
Yeah, absolut- uh, that was the bigger gaffe than- [laughs]... W- Westbrook g- Westbrook getting lost on defense and not being able to find the wide open three-point shooter and then closing out too late for a foul.
4:54
Th- that's nothing new for Russell Westbrook. Well, he was the last guy back down court. Right, yes, but still, I- Yeah... that part's nothing new for Russell Westbrook.
5:01
Knowing time, score, situation, I expect far more from a player of Russell Westbrook in that, in, in that ti- in that situation.
5:09
You saw Christian Braun running down the court, too, 'cause that's all he's been doing all season. All season he's just out on the break waiting for a Jokic bomb pass for him to lay it in.
5:19
And th- this is what these guys get used to, and it w- man, it was a terrible screw-up from th- from them at the end. One more thing about Jokic, by the way. Uh, there have been 91 60-point games in NBA history.
5:29
There have been 7,117 20 rebound games in NBA history, and 237 20 assist games in NBA history. He becomes the second player in NBA history to do all three in a single season. The other person, Wilt. It's always Wilt.
5:46
It's always Wilt. It's always Wilt. It's always Wilt. Um- We did have, um, Straw Poll come out today, too, but- S- little Straw Poll...
5:53
the Bontemp Straw Poll is getting, is kind of funny this year because I feel like he puts it together and it gets released the mor- like, the very morning after Jokic has some ridiculous game.
6:03
He does have interesting timing. [laughs] Yeah. It's, it's been kind of comical this year. Uh, it's, it's very much what you would expect.
6:10
Um, Shai, 77 first place votes, Jokic 23 Is where we're at And it's kind of reflected in the MVP- Yeah... market, right? Where, where Shai is still more, minus 2,000.
6:20
Um, so it did, I believe it did tick down a little bit. Hmm, looks pretty prohibitive to me. Minus 2,000, nine to one on Jokic. I think this was even higher, though, going into that game last night.
6:29
But based on that straw poll, that doesn't wanna make me bet Jokic. No, no. 'Cause his straw polls are usually pretty dead on. The, about, this one at this point- Yeah... it is the, by far, the most predictive.
6:38
Obviously we're the closest to the end of the regular season. Uh, but these have been pretty, pretty rock solid over the years. And yes, I, I could not recommend a Jokic bet right now.
6:46
So the Nuggets' loss, uh, puts them, I mean, they're, they're still in third now, but now they are only a half game ahead of the Lakers for that third spot.
6:56
What preceded the, the Jokic performance in defeat was Steph Cur- no, Steph Curry doing that damn thing in, in victory- Incredible... for the Warriors against the Grizzlies. Steph, 52, 12, 10, and five. Is that right?
7:12
Did he end with 10 assists in the end? Let me- Let me check that one... I, I thought he f- fell short on the assists. What I have here might be wrong.
7:19
Anyway, 52 points and tw- and, uh, he, he ended up with a double double anyway. That's the first time he's ever had 50 with 10 plus rebounds. 10 boards, yeah. 10 boards, eight assists. Yeah, 52, 10, and eight.
7:31
That's correct. Did he also have five steals in this game? Is that also correct? Um, or somebody's just, or I got bad stats here. But 12 threes he made. That matches- No, you're right, five steals... five steals.
7:41
And a block. [laughs] And a block. 12 threes, matches his season high. He had 32 points at the half, going 11 of 16 from the field, eight of 10 from outside the arc.
7:50
And after he made his last three, Steve Kerr just, was just, like, shaking his head like, "I can't believe this dude." Um, Jimmy Butler scored 27. Draymond had 13, 10, and 12. He had a triple double.
8:01
Warriors move into fifth place in the Western Conference now. Uh, they have one fewer loss than do the Grizzlies, the aforementioned T-Wolves, and the Clippers, who are six, seven, and eight right now.
8:13
So with seven games left in the Warriors' season, what a monster win, particularly because they own the tiebreakers against the Grizzlies and the T-Wolves. They do not against the Clippers, by the way. Right.
8:23
So it's not, uh, it's not a done deal that they end up in the fifth spot, but I just wanna say this, 'cause right before the show you could've done the enhance thing on me down there at Circa.
8:32
I finally did pull the trigger on the Warriors to win the West, plus 775 here at Circa.
8:37
'Cause the q- the only question that needs to be asked after that game yesterday, and I did a- ask this of you and Montesano last night via text, was do you trust any team in crunch time more than you do this trio of players, Curry, Butler, and Draymond?
8:52
N- And, uh, for me, the answer is a resounding no way. They, they are the most trustworthy group of players I want at the end of any game.
9:00
And that in- by the way, that includes better teams, like the Celtics, Cavs, and Thunder. In crunch time, I don't know. Plus 775, I'll play that for the west for sure.
9:10
So I don't know if you noticed, and obviously we didn't talk about this anymore, but the text exchange that you bring up, I thought you worded it perfectly. Yep.
9:17
And it was a resounding yes by me, that there i- th- there is no other trio that I would trust more- Yep... end of game situation. Gotta play a whole game though, right? I lo- Sure... I love the Warriors. Absolutely.
9:27
Y- you gotta play seven of these games, gotta play a whole game. You're gonna have to get yourself into those situations. I think they're as dangerous as anybody.
9:34
Um, I mean, I think they will get- Well, that, that's where the price comes in. That's just not even money. It's plus 775. Right, exactly. Exactly. Yeah. So, um, yeah.
9:41
I've still got the, uh, I still got the, the, the Thunder on top. You, you wanna do the, the Kelly Western Conference confidence rankings real quick? Oh, I was gonna save that for later, but we can do it now if you want.
9:49
Yeah, yeah. We could go through that. So the Warriors, it would be Thunder one for me. So I do have the Thunder one. I've got plenty of bets on them to win the west.
9:55
I understand where you're coming in with this Warriors bet. Warriors are number two. Yep.
9:59
Confidence ranking, this is just how f- how confident am I gonna be with how, where they end up in the Western Conference playoffs, right? Warriors number two, Nuggets are number three.
10:09
Um, yes, they have that loss last night. We're still talking about Nikola Jokic, and when you compare him to the rest of these teams that are left, I'll take the team with the best player. Uh, Nuggets three for me.
10:19
Clippers are four. This team has become a top 10 offensive and defensive team. I love what they can do on both sides of the ball. I've brought them up before.
10:26
I think they could be very dangerous if any of these teams that run into them. Timberwolves, I've got five. Uh, look, this team's been up and down, but a lot of strong pieces still left on this team.
10:35
I think they can make some noise in the playoffs. Lakers six. I am not gonna d- uh, count them out when you have LeBron James and Luka Dončić. Uh, on the offensive side of the ball, they could take this team very far.
10:47
Grizzlies, Rockets go seven, eight for me. I don't know how serious I can take them as contenders, though. Nope. Same here. The seriousness ends after number six. Defensive Player of the Year, Draymond out to minus 165.
10:59
Dort shortened to 12 to one. And our buddy Michael Montesano was betting him at 71 and 40 to one not too long ago. Is Dort a bet? I don't hate it. [laughs] I act- actually, I, I like it.
11:13
I, I've finally come around to, look, the Defensive Player of the Year got hurt. Uh, he got a blood clot, right? He's out. Yep. Sorry.
11:20
This is, this has all been who are we gonna try to replace this award with for Victor Wembanyama. I've finally gotten to the point, Gil, of just give it to somebody on the Thunder.
11:29
Give it to somebody who's been on the best defense all season long. And it sounds like the ESPN guys are starting to say that out loud about Dort now, aren't they? Yeah. Yeah, a little bit.
11:36
And they wield quite a bit of influence. Uh, we'll come back, college basketball with Jim Root, Nick Whalen on a bunch of sports, Paul Sporer on baseball.
11:45
We can get to the, uh, Texas Open, the Valero Texas Open a little later on golf. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights. Right now you can check out Wes Reynolds' Texas Open preview, Greg Peterson's college basketball and MLB picks, and catch up on the NBA with Zach Cohen.
12:10
Later today, you can check out Adam Burke's MLB best bets, Steve Makinen's MLB and NBA analytics reports, and Zach Cohen's NBA picks.
12:17
To get access to all the articles and betting guides on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for as little as 9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today Skill Alexander. It's Kelly Billy.
12:28
I don't mean to be gross. Can I be gross for a second? Yes, please. I probably have asked this in some form before.
12:33
What is the, uh, what is the ailment or the temporary defect on a human body that is the smallest but causes the most pain? If, if you- Oh, man, I mean, I know where you're about to go. Yeah.
12:45
And I don't know if I could think of one that beats it. The terrible name, but, uh, have you ever had a little, like, a canker sore in your mouth somewhere?
12:53
Yeah, yeah, they're awful, and es- especially when we have to talk for two hours, yeah. Oh my God, every word. You know, you know what I get- Pain...
12:58
especially when you dry it out here in Nevada, when you get, like, the cracks in your, like, around your nails- Oh, yeah... those are really painful too. Around your nails? Oh.
13:06
Yeah, like, I'll get them, like, I'll get, like, cracks in my skin around my nails. It's terrible.
13:10
Anyway, anyway, boys and girls, sorry to share that with you, but, uh- And you, you know the, you know how fierce I type, so it's- Oh... it becomes painful. I've gotta p- you know, I've gotta type through the pain.
13:20
Torch D, by the way, the one who put his satin on your panties, um, he said, "Yo, word, yo. Dagnall should be the front runner for Coach of the Year. What are the other favorites doing better than him?
13:30
Not to mention he's doing all this with a super young team. I think the only thing Atkinson is doing better is keeping his players out of trash AT&T commercials." [laughs] That's from Torch D.
13:40
Um, yeah, I'm with you, man. Again, going to the NBA standings, Thunder, they gotta go 7-0 down the stretch to get to 70.
13:48
We'll see if they care, 'cause right now with 12 losses and the Cavs with 15, it looks as though the last couple games won't matter at all, so we'll see how they play that. We shall see.
13:58
Um, I know that Bickerstaff took a lot of money over the weekend. I, I disagree. Like, I think it's... I think Dags is a good bet if you're in the 20s. I don't hate it right now.
14:09
You di- you disagree with the money in the market. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
14:11
I disagree with the move, 'cause I thought, I think that was live, I think that was very live if we were talking about a Pistons team that was got, got up to the th- fourth, third seed in the East.
14:19
And you could say, "Hey, look at this massive improvement." They've still, the improvement's been incredible. I'm not trying to, to downplay that. But yeah, they could still get up to the four seed.
14:29
Three seed's out of reach at this point. I don't, I don't really think he's all that realistic.
14:33
I think Atkinson, you could get in on a good price now that we haven't seen in a long time at minus 260, or do you take the long shot with Dags where 70 wins is still in play? I think 82 games matters.
14:43
Like, I don't think you can determine these awards after 70. And if you go five and five in your last 10, and you end up with Cavs 60 and 15, it kinda should matter. Totally. I agree. Um, let's talk some college hoops.
14:55
Ladies and gentlemen, he is one-third of the Three Man Weave group. He might even say a higher percentage, but we'll go with one-third, not to cause, uh, some dissent. It's Jim Root, everybody, James Patrick Root.
15:04
You can follow him on Twitter @secondchancepoints. You can follow Three Man Weave @3MW_CBB. Comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Jimmy, how you doing? I'm good. I'm ready to rock here.
15:16
I got about 24 hours till I'm on a plane down to San Antonio, get in person for these big games. So, uh, I'm excited. Oh, look at- I'm excited to talk to you and excited for the weekend.
15:24
You see that little brag in the middle there? See what he said right there? He, he's go- he's going to the Valero Texas Open. Oh, that's what he's doing. That, that's what he's doing, yeah. That's what he's doing. Yes.
15:31
[laughs] Um, so wait, before we get to all- Yeah, I made a big call. I- Before we get to all that, are you suggesting that you do not have college basketball crown fever? Is that what you're suggesting?
15:40
I don't quite have the crown fever, although had I been betting every over, maybe I would. Uh, it seems like that has been quite a, a play for people, and games have been flying over even late in games.
15:50
But it has not quite taken over my household, unfortunately. Yeah. Um, didn't we go two and two with the overs, though, yesterday? Or, or did we win- Was it two and two?
15:58
I think the first day might've been four and O, and- Four and O the first day... may- might've started two and O yesterday and then it didn't go well. Yeah, no, I wasn't...
16:02
Uh, went four and O, uh, four and O the first day, two and two, so I don't know if it's a thing anymore. Moving forward as they get to the very exciting final eight, um, in the Crown.
16:12
I think the cool kids call it the Crown. All right, to the Final Four. Um, we have the, the four number one seeds, once again, the only the second time in NCAA tournament history, 2008 being the other.
16:24
Um, and I'm curious, first of all, in your brackets, is this what you had? I had Texas Tech over Florida, uh, mostly because I was like, "I can't pick all four ones, can I?"
16:35
Uh, but quite honestly, they've been the best four teams all year and by a little bit of a, a margin, especially late in the year with how well Florida played. They put themselves up in that stratosphere.
16:44
So it felt like I had to pick someone that wasn't one of the, the one seeds, and I went with Texas Tech, and hey, they almost got it done, so I can't really put too much shame on that.
16:53
But yeah, I thought the other three one seeds would get there. Yeah, well, and you should have probably had Texas Tech, to be honest with you, but just didn't work out in the end, obviously.
17:00
Uh, okay, let's do these in chronological order. Don't, don't pay attention to the times we had there on screen, but Florida-Auburn is the first game on Saturday. Auburn, a two and a half point dog here.
17:12
Uh, Florida two and a half point favorite. We don't know the full extent of Jani Bream's injury in terms of what, how, you know, what percentage of, of full strength Jani will have on Saturday.
17:22
But the Gators two and a half point favorites. 159 and a half is now the total here. Um, I'm seeing a 159 where I'm looking. Any thoughts on this? Did you bet this one? I haven't bet it yet.
17:34
I'm leaning towards Florida and, and thinking about if I can get in there on a Bream report or when I see him down at, at practice. There's another brag for you, Gil. I got to slip it in there.
17:43
[laughs] Uh, the open practice is on Friday. Uh, if he looks a little gimpy or, or just, you know, tentative. I just overall think this is a pretty bad matchup for Auburn.
17:51
Florida took them to the woodshed at Auburn earlier in the year, and they did not have Han Laghten in that game. They did not have Elijah Martin in that game, so two of their top seven players, including a key starter.
18:02
And that was when Auburn was rolling. That, that was not when they were, you know, late in the year, kinda took their foot off the gas pedal. That was middle of the season at Auburn Arena.
18:09
Florida dominated the paint, uh, really just kinda was, were more efficient scoring the ball and, and I think had a really good game plan against Auburn.
18:18
They're gonna probably make Jani get his, especially with him being under fif- or under, under 100%.
18:25
Um, so I think the volume's gonna be really high for Bream, but if they're, you know, able to limit Pettiford, able to limit Jones, able to limit Baker Mazara- I think that sets up well for Florida because they've just got a lot more options to score offensively.
18:38
So I, I'm leaning towards Florida. And if I can kind of figure out that Broome's really not 100%, then I think that's gonna end up being a, a pretty good side there. Yeah.
18:47
Usually at this point I would say I'm not hearing any Auburn love this week from anybody, and that should concern folks. But I'm, I'm not sure I'm in disagreement with you at all on that. Then it's Houston, Duke.
18:56
Duke is favored by five here. Uh, 136 is the total. Duke, per the betting market and I think b- per the eye test as well, considered to be the front runner here. Uh, you see it that way as well? Yeah.
19:10
I, I think they're the best team. They're the most talented and, and quite honestly, I've been really impressed with Jon Scheyer and, and what they've done offensively.
19:17
The, the structure that they've had this year where they get guys in really good positions.
19:21
They get their, their guards going downhill with lobs open to Malach or they get Flagg isolated in the middle of the floor where you've either gotta send help or he's gonna just score over you with kind of like a floater or a jumper in the lane.
19:33
They, they've had really impressive just style on the end of the floor I didn't think they had the last couple years.
19:38
But if there's a team that's really built to, to compete with Duke, I think it's Houston, 'cause I think you can out-physical them a little bit.
19:44
I go back to the Clemson blueprint at, at Littlejohn Coliseum back in February. They got to basically every loose ball, played them to a draw on the glass, got Flagg completely out of rhythm.
19:53
The first 35 minutes of that game, maybe even 37, it, it was not a good Cooper Flagg game.
19:59
And with the mature physical adults, like fifth-year seniors that, that Houston's got, I, I think they can give Duke a bit of a battle, make it a half court game.
20:08
And you've got that added little element of, of maybe some revenge for the returners.
20:13
You know, Houston's got four starters back and a couple bench guys from last year where they probably feel very justifiably that they should've beaten Duke.
20:21
And had Jamal Shed not rolled an ankle, they, they really would've had that. Uh, and I think five is a little big. And, and analytically look at- Mm-hmm... you know, some of the projections, it is, it is big.
20:30
Bart Torvik's got Houston ranked higher. So I, I, I definitely lean that way. I haven't pulled the trigger yet because I fear Duke a- and just how talented they are.
20:39
But man, heavy lean towards Houston and, and I'm thinking about locking that one in. If I made you make a Final Four most outstanding player bet right now, 'cause this market is available.
20:47
Cooper Flagg is the short shot, plus 109. Walter Clayton Jr., Florida, plus 303. Johni Broome, Auburn, eight to one. LJ Cryer, Houston, plus 950.
20:58
And then every, by the way, we'll show some other numbers here 'cause we're showing the FanDuel numbers up here. But those are the short shots, one per Final Four, uh, participant.
21:07
And then you see everybody else after that. Knipple over there at 30 to one is interesting to me. Yeah. If I, if I made you make one bet, wh- which would it be?
21:15
It'd probably be either Flagg plus 120 or Uzoh 16 to one, Milos Uzoh for, for Houston. Uh, Kelton Sampson talked about it after they beat Purdue, like Uzoh's ascension has really synced up with Houston's ascension.
21:28
I, I think he's kind of their secret leader, maybe not emotional leader, but j- how they play, they go as Uzoh goes. Uh, and that, that's just a little bit more open, Houston, like who's gonna win it for them.
21:39
I, I, I sort of buy the Knipple angle for, for Duke, but just with the, uh, the attention that Flagg's got and how popular he is, him, Clayton, Broome, first team All-Americans for those teams.
21:52
The other guy's gonna have to be like overwhelmingly better for them to get it 'cause it's a human-voted award.
21:58
Uh, back in 2023, or excuse me, 2022 when Kansas won, and I really don't think Agbaji was the best player at the Final Four.
22:04
It was, it was, um, either Remy Martin or the big guy, McCormick, and they still gave it to Agbaji. I think people just default to the best player. So it's gotta be overwhelmingly somebody else.
22:15
Whereas Houston's a little more balanced. So i- if I'm, if I'm buying Houston to win the whole thing, then Uzoh 16 to one intrigues me. All right, Jim. Sorry to bother you on your way to San Antonio- Yeah...
22:24
and then maybe the Masters after that. [laughs] I don't know where you're going, but have a, have fun. I wish I had a ticket to Augusta. If you got one, let me know, Gil. Oh, no. Trust me, I do not.
22:32
Safe travels, my friend. [laughs] Thank you. Cheers. Thanks for having me, guys. Jim Root, everybody, @secondchancepoints @3MW_CBB for Three Man Weave. Check him out with all his thoughts on the Final Four.
22:44
Nick Whalen, our own Nick Whalen. Yeah. We can finally say that. On multiple sports including the NFL, next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:34
Start today and get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Harold Irving, "I've had crown fever for years." Crown Royal. Yeah.
23:45
[laughs] That's my kind of crown. There we go. Tom F at T for- I just got way too excited about that tweet. Yes, yes you did. Good job. Yes, you did. Tom F, T for three, "Digital Underground shout-out."
23:54
Yes, thank you for catching that. I appreciate it. And Chris Hartman says, "Kelly, life hack for the cracks on fingers for you. Super glue." Super glue?
24:03
He wants you to put Super Glue- Like I'm gonna go to the hardware store and get Super Glue? On your hands. Like how does, do I moisturize first and then apply the Super Glue over that? [laughs] Is that what I do?
24:14
I don't know, man. Li- living in South Florida, never, never had to moisturize the old hands, uh, Gil. But you, you move out to Las Vegas. Oh, yeah. It's a thing. It's a thing.
24:23
Uh, let's talk, uh, let's talk multiple sports with, uh, one of our favorites. We always used to introduce him as a RotoWire senior analyst. He remains that, but he's also a VSiN co-host now. That's right.
24:33
Uh, along with Jeff Erickson for Prop Points. And he joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. It's Nick Whalen, everybody. How you doing, Nick? I'm good, fellas. I'm good.
24:43
Uh, yeah, I appreciate the, the warm welcome from you guys, from everybody else at VSiN. You can catch Prop Points 2:00 to 3:00 PM Eastern, Monday through Friday right here on the network.
24:54
So, uh, yeah, this'll be, this'll be a nice warm-up for our show later this afternoon. Very nice. So right after, so Money Moves is right after us with Stormy. Mm-hmm. And then it's Prop Points. Yep. Um, okay. Right.
25:04
So, w- Nick, let's start with the NFL. I have a couple questions. Yes. So season win totals now coming out. Um, any thoughts on that out of the gates?
25:15
Yeah, you know, I was talking with Kelly earlier this week, and, uh, we, we had some initial confusion. I sent him some plays that I liked, and he's like, "Oh my gosh, you bet all these already?" [laughs] I have not.
25:23
I wanna make that very clear. I have not put anything in. But I, I love the discussion when these win totals come out, right? Like, we, we're still, like, a month away from the schedule coming out.
25:30
We haven't even had the draft. But, you know, when, when you look at these win totals, it, it forces you to kinda come up with a narrative.
25:35
You're checking on the, you know, the, the schedule of opponents, even if we don't know the order. And really, the, the win totals for the NFC West, Gil, are, are what jumped out to me first.
25:45
And, you know, I look at Seattle at eight and a half, and I, I really lean under on that. Now, they do play the AFC South and the NFC South, so you have some, some gettable games against both of those divisions.
25:55
So I think that's part of the reason that number is at eight and a half. But there's so much uncertainty with this Seattle team. Obviously, you're bringing in Sam Darnold, who to me still remains somewhat of an unknown.
26:04
Now, if he was running it back in Minnesota, I think we'd feel a little bit better about that, but I think we're gonna find out very quickly, you know, how much of that is actual, actual progression for Sam Darnold versus, you know, just being coached up by Kevin O'Connell, being in a great situation, playing with the best receiver in the NFL.
26:19
You got a new offensive coordinator for the third time in three years. You know, they shed some talent, uh, really on both sides of the ball, but especially offensively. I like Cooper Kupp.
26:28
We'll see how many games Cooper Kupp plays at this point in his career. You know, Jackson Smith-Njigba's a really nice player. He's not Justin Jefferson.
26:35
They don't really have that, that crazy high level number two like Addison. They don't have a great tight end.
26:40
And this was at times I thought the worst offensive line in football last year, and we, we know what Sam Darnold can look like behind a shaky offensive line. So that was one that jumped out.
26:49
I like the over on nine and a half for the LA Rams. I, I really think this might be the best team in the division right now.
26:54
I know San Francisco just kinda gets the incumbent status, uh, automatically, but the Niners have done nothing [laughs] but lose talent this off-season, and, you know, things are gonna get more and more difficult for them.
27:05
Pretty manageable schedule, I think, for the LA Rams. Obviously, they get the NFC South and the AFC South as well, so that's another one. You guys know I'm a Jacksonville Jaguars fan. Hmm.
27:15
I don't think I w- I don't think I've ever recommended taking a, a Jags win total over. Made a lot of money over the years just auto-fading the Jaguars, but seven and a half, man, I, I think this is doable.
27:25
I think this is doable. I think we finally have a reasonable coach in place. This is a team that won nine games in both 2022 and 2023. You look around at that division, I don't know if the Colts are gonna be very good.
27:36
I don't think Tennessee's gonna be very good. Feels like you can maybe split with the Houston Texans. They also play Seattle, the Jets, Carolina, Arizona, Las Vegas out of division.
27:45
So I'm, I'm not saying this is gonna be a 10 or 11 win year for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but, uh, I think they could push the over on seven and a half. Wow. Um, you had thoughts on multiple.
27:54
Let me just throw, I'll just throw in a couple more, and you just give me- Sure... one sentence on them. Arizona, eight and a half. Mm-hmm. Yeah, so Arizona and Seattle at eight and a half.
28:02
You know, it's like one of these is going under for sure. I don't know which one necessarily. I, I feel a little bit stronger probably about Seattle, but I don't really like this Arizona team either. I, I really don't.
28:10
I don't think they got any better. You got some aging pieces on that offense, a ton of holes to fix defensively. I, I think this one is, is a win higher than I expected it to come in at.
28:18
KC and Buffalo both at 11 and a half. Honestly, I like the over on both of these. Wow. You know, I think there's still, there, I think there's still a pretty clear, you know, line of demarcation in the AFC.
28:29
You know, you got your three or four teams at the top, and certainly I think Kansas City is one of them.
28:33
Yeah, the Chiefs got very lucky over and over last year, but I, I think, you know, getting Rashee Rice back is going to be massive for this team.
28:40
You know, I think we talked a lot about, man, Mahomes doesn't look like Mahomes. This offense feels broken. Well, I, you know, you're missing one of the 10 best receivers in my opinion in the NFL.
28:49
You bring him back, you bring back Hollywood Brown.
28:51
Uh, you know, I, I think for a Kansas City team that was, you know, for, for a while looking like they were pushing for 17 and 0, I think it's totally reasonable that this could be a 12, 13 win team.
29:00
And, you know, I was actually out on Buffalo last year. I thought that might be their, their soft reset season where they'd still be competitive, but they wouldn't be elite.
29:07
And I, I, I feel better about this roster now, uh, than I did this time last year. And, you know, yeah, New England's better in that division, but Miami doesn't feel as fierce.
29:15
You know, I'm not really scared of the New York Jets. So I think Buffalo is set up well, uh, you know, for another, another very Buffalo-like season. Wow. Kelly, ask me about Washington nine and a half real quick.
29:24
Hey, uh, Gil, do you, uh, love or like the over nine and a half on Washington? Adore. [laughs] I adore it. That's shocking. I'm shocked to hear this. No, I, and I'm like you.
29:34
For many, many years, for right, better part of two, two and a half decades, I was always fading, but I love the over on that. 10 and seven? You don't, you don't think they can go 10 and seven? Uh, okay.
29:43
NFL draft, any thoughts at the top? Oh, man, the, th- this is a very interesting draft in that, you know, I, I think it's more of, like, an infrastructure type of draft, if that makes sense.
29:54
You know, you don't necessarily have these, these flashy names at the top. It...
29:58
Yeah, it's starting to feel like Cam Ward, you know, to Tennessee or, you know, even if Tennessee were to trade out as the number one pick, you know, that one to, to me makes some sense.
30:06
You know, Jayden Sanders just kind of being in for some teams, out for others has kind of thrown off, uh, the top of the draft. But I, I haven't really bet a whole lot, uh, in terms of the NFL draft right now.
30:16
I, I will say one thing that I have been tracking, though, is the, the receiver market as far as the first receiver to be selected.
30:22
Like, a week and a half ago, Ted McMillan was, like, minus 650 to be the number one receiver drafted. We have seen quite a surge from Matthew Golden, who of course, you know, had the great 40 time at the Combine.
30:33
You know, McMillan's now just minus 200 to be the first receiver off the board. Matthew Golden now plus 150. That's an interesting market. That's something I would look at. I, I still think McMillan is that guy.
30:43
Um, but, you know, I think there are some teams that, that might prioritize the speed of Matthew Golden.
30:47
So that, that receiver market, you know, the changes we've seen there, we haven't really seen that at other positions. So, uh, that is something that, that maybe I would take a look at. Okay.
30:54
Um, once again, um, Nick is the co-host of Prop Points.
30:57
Give us, in our last few minutes here, a sort of snapshot of what folks will get on Prop Points when it pertains to either the Final Four or the NBA or anything else you wanna talk about. Yeah.
31:09
So I am, I am kind of our resident NBA guy, uh, if you will. Uh, not, not sure I would give myself that title, but, you know, I, I split the show with Jeff Erickson. He's my co-host.
31:18
Uh, we host two hours of radio together every day as well. You can catch that on SiriusXM Fantasy. And, and Jeff is a baseball guy. He is a certified baseball guy. He's been doing this for 25-plus years.
31:28
So this time of year, you know, we, we do at least one segment breaking down daily baseball bets. That's usually Jeff's forte. We still break down the NBA, although, uh, good luck, uh, on tonight's slate.
31:38
I know you've taken a look at that, Kelly. Mm-hmm. Uh, we have nine games, and seven of them are currently holding double-digit spreads.
31:43
Uh, one of them had a double-digit spread last night until the Denver Nuggets, uh, ended up playing into double overtime, and now, you know, there's some expectation that they could rest some guys on the second night of a back-to-back.
31:53
But it's a healthy mix of baseball, basketball. We'll talk plenty of March Madness. Uh, mix in whatever's going on. You know, as we get closer to the NFL Draft, you know, we'll have some special shows coming up for that.
32:02
We talk a lot of golf as well. Both Jeff and I, uh, are big golf guys. So we try to bring a variety. You know, I think that's kind of been our, our bread and butter at Rotowire over the years.
32:10
We're not one of those sites that just specializes in one sport, and that's all we do. Uh, we, we try to be jack of all trades as much as we can. What's your strongest Final Four opinion here?
32:19
[sighs] Well, from the start, guys, I, I've not put together a fantastic bracket for the 25th year in a row, but Florida and Duke has been my, my national championship matchup.
32:30
I, I have Florida beating Duke in that matchup. Right now I'm, I'm just looking at a Florida-Duke money line parlay. I know it's boring, you know, coming down to Saturday night's games.
32:38
You can get that at about plus 135 at the DraftKings Sportsbook. I, I, I feel good about both of those teams winning straight up. I do think we get two close games. You know, Florida obviously has already beaten Auburn.
32:48
They only played once during the regular season. But to me, Florida is just the more consistent team. Their role-players show up more consistently. They're as deep as anybody in the country. Not 100% sure.
32:58
Jai Broome is going to be 100% for this game. I mean, it looked like it was both elbow, knee, ankle, everything on that play. So I, I think that's something that's gone a little bit under-covered.
33:06
And, you know, Auburn's gotten off to some sluggish starts so far in this tournament. So I'd maybe look at a first-half under. Maybe look at Florida on the first-half line.
33:14
You know, Auburn survived shooting 39% against Michigan, 42% against Michigan State. Can't do that against Florida. All right. Prop Points, Nick and Jeff, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific right here at VSiN.
33:25
Appreciate it, Nick. Great seeing you, man. Hey. You guys too. Thank you. Also doing his thing at Rotowire still, for those who, uh, might be wondering about that.
33:33
Uh, when we come back, I, uh, continue with my Sacramento ballpark theory, and Paul Sporer tells me I'm an idiot, probably. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:50
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna know where the money is really going?
33:55
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34:02
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34:12
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34:19
Get VSiN's exclusive betting splits for as little as 9.99 for your first month at vsin.com/subscribe. We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciated. Uh, Chris Hartman wants to clarify.
34:29
He says, "Kelly, uh, Fuel at Circa," the little shop across the way here, "probably has a small tube of super glue available behind the counter. Seals the crack. Moisturize after it dries," he says. Okay.
34:40
And Jesse Welch adds, "My interest is oddly piqued at Kelly's health all of a sudden." Hmm.
34:43
[laughs] Corbin, uh, Corbin says, "As someone who had the Timberwolves plus five and a half in-game tied to a couple other things that hit already, I took the m- the, uh, Nuggets money line at a big price when they were down six in the first OT.
34:57
I thought I middled it perfect, then Westbrook happens. That was the definition- Oof... of betting in the NBA this year." That's the definition of betting the NBA period, I find.
35:05
Um, okay, yesterday on the show, so I, I, I mentioned this m- with Mark Borchard yesterday, um, but essentially after the, uh, Cubs beat the Athletics in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park, uh, they beat 'em 18 to three, Mark Borchard started talking about the ballpark in Tampa Bay and, uh, how that roster conformed to that ballpark, and then I took it in another direction.
35:28
Here's what it sounded like. And I think that, that Tampa Bay really has designed their team around Tropicana Field.
35:35
And now that they're not there anymore, it'll be interesting to see k- kind of if those pitching numbers remain low, and so far they have.
35:41
Uh, but, uh, I, I think that that would have more of an impact, uh, than, than the other, the other one. So we'll s- we'll see what happens.
35:48
So, see, see, that's interesting, because what that triggers to me by that same logic, right? So what was Oakland's ballpark known for? Oakland's ballpark was known for, um, vast amounts of foul ground.
35:58
So I wonder when you say that the Tampa Bay was tailored to their ballpark, I wonder if the Athletics really, right, the pitching profile was tailored to that Oakland ballpark where foul ground was really sort of quietly used to their benefit.
36:11
And if that goes out the window now, does that become a thing? Again, it's only one game, so total didn't adjust today, but I think by that same logic, that's an interesting thing to look into. Day.
36:23
So yesterday I go ahead and I, I bet the over, right? It didn't adjust. In fact, it went against us. It went down to eight. Uh, it went over by the end of the third inning.
36:32
Um, by the way, then I made an in-game bet that didn't win, 'cause then it kind of s- it got stifled.
36:36
But the point is, what I was trying to say there is, and for those of us who have bet baseball for as long as we have, and in a different lifetime that's all I used to bet, right, daily-
36:45
The, it's the notion of did Oakland have fly ball pitchers tailored to the immense amount of foul ground that existed in Oakland?
36:53
When you see comparisons between the ballpark in Oakland and Sutter Health Park now in Sacramento, which by the way seats 14,000, everybody says, "Oh, the dimensions are similar," but not foul ground.
37:04
In Sacramento, it immediately goes into the stands once you get past the infield. Joey Estes, who, uh, pitched the, uh, the Athletics' first game, fly ball pitcher. Luis Severino yesterday, fly ball pitcher.
37:15
Today, Jeffrey Springs, fly ball pitcher. And it only adjusted to nine. Paul Spoor we bring in now from FanGraphs, at, @Spoor on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
37:28
Paul, I never wanna overreact, but I kind of feel like I should overreact here.
37:33
I mean, I definitely think with, with this park and a bunch of fly ball pitchers, you, you do wanna start looking and see if they're gonna adjust the numbers on you, or if it's gonna remain a soft spot for you to attack here.
37:44
Because I do think that fly ball pitchers definitely had it easier in the Coliseum because of all that foul territory, exactly what you were saying. So yeah, I, I think you're onto something.
37:53
And you're right, we don't wanna overreact early to things, to anything really. We have to be very, very smart about that, but that doesn't mean you ignore everything.
38:02
You don't just bury your head in the sand and not look for anything that you can play. And especially something like this where they're not adjusting the numbers, I, I think you're onto something here. I really do. Yeah.
38:11
I mean, as long as they're throwing out fly ball pitchers, that stuff really matters, and it's, it's, this is a great, uh, sort of lesson for new bettors about analytics versus the eye test.
38:19
It was Dean Oliver who w- was more of an NBA analytics guy who said famously, or at least I found it to be fa- famous back at Sloan, back in the day at the MIT conference, where he was like, "Listen, our eyes can see one game better than analytics, but analytics sees everything-" Right...
38:34
in a better way than our eyes do. And it, and foul balls caught in Oakland is not something you'd ever process, right, watching a baseball game.
38:42
But when you watch this now, you're like, "Oh, yeah, those aren't outs anymore, so the batter just gets another..." So anyway, that's when a- And-...
38:49
when a roster is tailored to a ballpark, this is what happens when it changes suddenly. Absolutely.
38:54
And people, you know, mistakenly thought that, uh, Oakland, the Coliseum was, was a pitcher's park inherently, uh, or that you couldn't go yard there. No, it was the foul territory. Yeah.
39:04
It was, it was 100% the foul territory. There were some cold nights, sure, that it was tougher to go yard, but when their home run hitters were on, the ones that they've had over the years, they could go yard there.
39:13
It's not, it's not that difficult a park to hit homers. It's always the foul territory, and now that's gone in center home, and that's a huge, huge difference. Day game.
39:22
I'm going over today again in Sacramento, where again, we're not allowed to call them the Sacramento Athletics. Oh. They're merely the Athletics. Um- Simply the Athletics. Not a stupid- Simply the Athletics.
39:31
What is your big... I'm, I'm just curious to know this from you. What's your biggest takeaway? I don't wanna say takeaway. What's the thing in this early part of the baseball season? Obviously, the Dodgers 7-0.
39:42
Who knows if they ever lose a baseball game ever again? Um- Torpedo bats.
39:46
[laughs] Beyond, beyond the obvious ones, what's like a Paul Spoor thing that you've noticed where you're like, "Okay, this I didn't expect," or, "This could be a thing"? What, what is it? Uh, Padres stealing bases.
39:59
They've got, uh, they've got 13 steals so far. They've got some guys running wild, including Fernando Tatis, who's already commented about it and said, "Hey, I was on one leg last year. What do you expect?"
40:10
Uh, you know, he only went 11 for 14, which is still a great rate, by the way. 11 steals in 102 games for him. He's already got four this year. Manny Machado has a bunch. Xander Bogaerts has three.
40:19
They're kinda running wild, and that's an interesting dynamic.
40:22
We've seen teams running more with these new rules for sure, but I think some of the teams that have really taken advantage of it have been maybe some of the, some of the lesser teams trying to get an edge.
40:31
Washington, uh, for sure has been a big part of it. Cleveland is a team that, you know, they, they had a great season last year, but they kinda win on the margins, bullpen, base running, things like that.
40:41
This is a powerhouse team, San Diego, at least on paper, and they're really diving into the steals. They're only behind Pittsburgh, who's also, uh, up with their stealing this year, mainly 'cause they can't hit.
40:51
So the [laughs] any hit that they do get in Pittsburgh they're trying to turn into a double. They have 17 steals to San Diego's 13. But that's something that definitely jumps out.
40:59
You know, I know Kelly was kinda jokingly talking about the torpedo bats. I know it's like the biggest thing going, but I, I don't wanna say I couldn't care less, but I'm, I'm completely unmoved by it.
41:09
Because they're not new. They're not the reason for the success, uh, uh, of the Yankees this weekend.
41:16
And, like, it's just a, a new shiny thi- uh, quote, unquote, "new," again, been around since I think 2019, uh, that people are drawing their attention to.
41:25
I saw some pitchers whining on Twitter as if the, like, last 50 big innovations haven't been pitcher based. [laughs] Shut up, Max Scherzer. Yeah. Whining and carrying on about it. Um, I don't mind it.
41:37
I think players should use it if they think it's gonna benefit them. I love the golf club analogy that I've been hearing a bunch on, like, MLB Network. I think that that is the perfect analogy.
41:46
Across the board, being fitted for clubs tailored to your swing. Not only that, but also having it as a club for different things. We saw Junior Caminero use it in a pinch hit at bat.
41:56
Maybe he feels like, "I can get base hits better with this, and I can get homers better with a regular bat. So if I'm gonna have four at bats in the game, I'm gonna use the regular bat.
42:04
But if I'm coming off the bench and I need a base hit, maybe I go to the torpedo bat." I like it being used as like a club in your bag. So I don't think there's a whole lot to make of it.
42:14
It's an interesting-ish story, but it, it's not making guys inherently better, uh, nor is it illegal, so there's no real issue with it. All right.
42:22
Love having you here on a Wednesday because we get full day baseball starting in the morning. Uh- Yeah... if you were a fantasy player today, how are you playing this? If I'm looking at the...
42:31
Well, first off, it's, it's ace day. Big time ace day. Uh, 20 of the 30 guys go and rank in my top 60, uh, with 6 of my top 10, uh, rankings right now, so there's tons of ways to go with the pitching.
42:45
Skubal and Skeens are my top two guys, uh, for the year and for the day. You can go Zach Wheeler against Colorado at home. I mean, there's a million options for pitching.
42:54
If you wanna get a little cutesy and maybe save some budget if you're doing DFS or whatever, you can get a little bit cheaper with somebody like Orion Peppio against Pittsburgh. I'm a very big Peppio fan.
43:04
Clay Holmes at Miami is probably gonna be coming in a bit cheaper because the money's gonna go toward the Skubal, Skeens, Wheeler, Crochet, Reagans, uh, Snell.
43:12
Again, I could name them all, but I, I, we're running out of time here. It's just so many different ways to go.
43:17
Now, if you're looking for offense, where do you go on a day like this when 20 of the 30 pitchers are, are pretty damn good? I think you start looking at those Padres.
43:26
So if you do wanna save some on pitching to try to get some Padres in your lineup going against Ben Lively, I like that. Easton Lucas is like a fill-in for Max Scherzer right now for the Jays.
43:35
I don't even know if he's gonna be a full-time starter there and go more than two, three innings. But I think maybe some, uh, some Nats could be interesting. I think Phillies against Kyle Freeland.
43:45
Kyle Freeland's a solid pitcher. I, I wanna be clear here. He's a solid pitcher. Still gonna take my shots against him, though. So some Phillies and, of course, Dodgers.
43:53
They're getting Bryce Elder, uh, filling in for Manny Aldo Lopez. Hook 'em Horns with Bryce Elder. He is a, a former Longhorn, but come on, it's the Dodgers. I'm not, I'm obv- obviously gonna go for them anytime I can.
44:04
So a lot of ways to go on today's board with all the great pitching. Paulie, love it, man. Baseball is here. Couldn't be more excited. Appreciate it, man. Take care, y'all. Paul Spoor @Spoor.
44:15
Dodgers, by the way, 7-0 now. Padres 6-0. Everybody else with four wins or less as they make a mockery out of the race to 10. Just a mockery. We'll come back. Golf, the Valero Texas Open next.
44:29
Numbers Game, Visa, the sports betting network.
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