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Apr 30, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 30, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 30, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:17
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you take us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's up? Live from Bar Canada. The D, what's happening? Doing great, man. No power drills this morning. Ready to roll. Oh, free to do
0:32
unfettered radio. There's actually, like, nobody in here today. It's a little bizarre. [laughs] Please, please, come back drills.
0:39
Um, okay, on the show today, Drew Ditzik will join us to talk, uh, I don't know, we'll see if we can coax some tennis out of him. I don't know if that's gonna happen or not. NFL draft fallout- Mm-hmm...
0:50
let's just say, if he wants to say two words about that, 'cause he didn't have a good day. Maybe he wants to just wrap it up. Uh, and then NBA, we'll talk with him as well.
0:57
Plus he'll be the, uh, onsite and numbers game reporter live from the Kentucky Derby. And the big thing, the Kentucky Derby. Yeah. Yeah. Why are you looking so serious at me? Just, just us sending him out there.
1:07
Oh, okay. He's not going for any other reason, Gil. Kelly- Just for a numbers game... Kelly stared at me with a stern expression. Uh, okay, and then, uh, Paul Carr on the Champions League, Paul Spore on baseball, and
1:18
the headline of today's show, the Guardians are still alive. It is April 30th. I don't know if you know this, this is the last day of April. It's a 30-day month. I mean, it did sneak up on me a couple times. We are live.
1:33
We are not there by any stretch. We'll go through the scenarios for circa players like myself and dead heat players alike coming up on the show. Yep. Af- after a unbelievable night of baseball.
1:47
I was gonna say, that went about as well as it could have for you, right? It went perfecto yesterday. Okay. [laughs] Yankees lost to the Orioles, which was always a possibility, right? It was in Baltimore. Yeah.
1:55
Orioles shut out the Yankees. Did they shut them out at the end? Yeah, I think they did, uh, two to nothing. And then, um, then you had the simultaneous games where the Angels came back
2:07
from a three to nothing deficit in the first inning to beat the Phillies. So the Yankees and Phillies are of no matter to those of us at Circle. We'll get into it later. And then, uh,
2:16
the big one, the Atlanta Braves and the Seattle Mariners dueling no-hitters through six. The Braves manufacturing a run- Oh, yeah...
2:26
to go up one to nothing, and you're like, "How many different ways can this ball club win baseball games?" And Mitch Haniger, San Francisco Giant great. Kidding. [laughs] Two-run Jimmy Jack in the ninth.
2:39
Let's just put it this way. So everybody at the Aria Sportsbook- Let's go, Haniger... Ari- Well, everyone at the Aria Sportsbook is watching the Lakers game on the big screen.
2:45
There's this totally obnoxious Lakers fan who's, like, making enemies with everybody, and then they go after him at the, when Denver finally wins, and he wants to fight him. It's this whole thing.
2:52
But I'm, they let me go up in the little VIP area, which is elevated. They can't see me, and when Haniger hit the home run- [laughs]... they didn't even know I was up there. I let out this guttural scream.
3:02
Like, I'm going bananas. Ah. And you could tell they were all like, 'cause it had nothing to do with the basketball game. They're like, "What, what just happened?" Uh, okay, we'll get to that. I like that bar outside.
3:10
I don't, I don't hang out in the sportsbook there very often. You are a total bar outside guy. Well, I, I mean, we- Yeah... if you got a good TV set up and I get a video poker- Yeah... in front of me, but I'm, I'm good.
3:19
Okay, we'll get to that. NBA last night. Uh, let's get to the ones real quick that we can get to. OKC completes the sweep against New Orleans.
3:26
One, two, three Galveston for the Pelicans, the Zion-less Pelicans, and, uh, this Western Conference great playoffs that we were expecting, uh, sure hasn't happened yet. We get a sweep with the T-Wolves.
3:37
We get a sweep, uh, with OKC, and, uh, so there you go. The number one seed Thunder, first franchise playoff series win since 2016. Good on them. Yeah, great on them.
3:50
Um, I mean, I think this is, like you said, no Zion, that totally changed everything for New Orleans, but hey, OKC, Minnesota for, for all the doubters out there, it's a, it's a clean sweep in the first round.
4:01
Onto the second round, where I think we're gonna get some better series, Gil. Oh, I think we are. Celtics, uh, before that took down the Heat, no problem.
4:08
They take a three to one lead now back to Boston to try to complete the five-game series. They're 102 to 88 in a game that wasn't quite that close, to be honest with you. Derrick White went crazy in this game.
4:20
Um, the only thing though is this, and I re- I wonder if you remember this exchange we had a couple months ago. I said, "The only thing that can stop the Celtics in the Eastern Conference is a Porziņģis injury."
4:31
And you looked at me and you said, "Yeah, but everybody says, like, why is everybody saying Porziņģis get hurt?" Porziņģis got hurt. Yep. And people were of course doing the, uh, the, "Hey, was it an Achilles injury?"
4:39
I'm apparently the official Achilles doctor- Of course he was. Yeah... of the United States of America. He had a calf strain. We have to go to you on that.
4:45
He had a, he rolled his ankle the previous possession, so that already makes you think, well, it's not an Achilles. It was whatever happened there.
4:51
Plus he had that tape over his calf, so you couldn't really see what was going on with the calf, and then they never really showed a shot of his face afterwards that I saw, which you, you need that confusion.
5:00
So- He w- Yeah, he was grimacing- Yeah, so-... on the sideline... MRI today. I, they, they're saying that it's not that, and I don't believe it is either, but I mean, that's a big loss if it's extended. Yeah, it sure is.
5:13
Um, you know, i- it's, I think he's got time. You know, how, how much is it gonna matter? When's it gonna matter?
5:20
Those are the big questions this time of year, but yeah, man, I mean, that was the big addition for them this season, and sure, they've got more than enough firepower still that you could make an argument that they could easily get through the Eastern Conference without him.
5:31
Um, but like you said, that was the big addition, the big addition this year with all the other pieces, um, around, around, uh, Brown and Tatum and him.
5:39
And yeah, man, that would be big if he mi- he missed significant time. And then the big one last night, the Nuggets and the Lakers.
5:47
Nuggets look, looking to close out the Lakers with a gentleman's sweep in what is the most ungentlemanly of gentleman sweeps based on the fact that the Lakers ended up leading in this series 76% of the time.
6:00
4:11 left in the game. 95-95. Jamal posterizes LeBron. 97-95 Nuggets. 97-95 Reeve- Reeves. Bounce, bounce. Good. We're tied at 97. Murray drives the whole. 99-97 Nuggets. 99-99 now. 3:04 left.
6:15
AD called for a foul on a Jokic bunny. Lakers challenge it, win the challenge, but lose the timeout. A horrible rule in the NBA where on your second challenge, even if you win, you lose a timeout. Bookmark that.
6:29
Later, Jokic baby runner. 101-99. 2:36 left. Nuggets on top. Reeves then from three, and the Lakers are on top. 102-101 with 2:12 left. KCP from eight. Moment might have been too big.
6:40
Ball goes seven, but grazes the front of the rim right to Jokic who lays it in. 103-102 Nuggets. 1:46 left. LeBron r- uh, tough to the rack in traffic. Lays it in. 104-103 Lakers. 1:33 to go.
6:51
Could that have been the last field goal? As a professional. We'll get to that momentarily. Murray elbow jumper, no good. Gordon fights off both LeBron and D'Angelo, gets the board back to Murray from three. Bottom.
7:02
106-104 Denver. 1:06 left. Reeves misses a six-footer. Jokic misses a four-footer. LeBron fouled by Porter Jr., hits both free throws. 1:06, 1:06. 26 seconds to go.
7:11
Denver does not call timeout just like they didn't in game two. This time Murray fading to his left in midair hits a 15-footer with 3.6 left. Lakers no timeouts left. Remember that challenge?
7:22
LeBron impeded by Jokic, gives it up to Taurean Prince. Half court heave, no good. No foul either. They weren't gonna call that. Ball game, series Nuggets in one of the strangest gentleman sweeps ever.
7:34
And somebody asked me yesterday on Twitter, "What is the origin of a gentleman sweep?" And somebody, uh, they traced it back to a blogger, uh, at CBS Sportsline in 2011.
7:41
It's actually a dude on Twitter in 2010 that we saw before this. Some random dude's like, "I call that a gentleman sweep." Um, plus 38 the Lakers were in the first half in this series.
7:53
They led by at least nine points in every game, and they led at halftime in every game. And Jamal Murray, who hits the game-winner in games two and five. This is from Nick Wright over at Fox Sports.
8:04
I thought this was an interesting tweet. And Nick Wright is, like, the biggest Lakers apologist and biggest LeBron guy there ever is. So for him to, uh, come out and be so, uh, I guess gracious about it.
8:16
But he was really, I think, a great tweet about putting Jamal Murray in context. He says, "Jamal Murray is one of the most unique players in NBA history.
8:23
Zero All-Star appearances, zero All-NBA teams, no regular season accolades at all, yet only MJ, Wilt, and AI have more 50-point playoff games than Murray.
8:34
He's got one iconic playoff run under his belt, two other awesome ones, and now this year with a true walk-off buzzer beater and another near buzzer beater and 32 points on one leg. Legendary." I think that's accurate.
8:47
Wasn't gonna play. Had a calf injury. Emotional conversation with Malone, Coach Malone before the game. "Uh, I'll play." Boy, did he ever. Malone didn't want him to go. Sounded like the Nuggets didn't want him to go.
8:59
Uh, Jamal Murray's one of the... I know we talk about these e- everybody gets the playoff tag, or aren't they even doing a commercial on it now, like making fun of it?
9:06
But like Jamal Murray in the playoffs- Not a thing... is a different thing. Sorry. Yeah. Like, he is a different guy in these, in these big time moments.
9:13
Like you're just talking about the walk-off buzzer beater [laughs] shots, like, he makes over and over again. There's not a lot of guys you'd say you'd rather have in that position than him.
9:22
Well, we have one conference semifinal set now. And by the way, do you wanna run the La- we wanna run the bl- little... I can't even say it. Yeah, yeah. LeBron- The LeBron sound first before we move on to that? Yeah.
9:33
LeBron exiting the season. You know, not making anything dramatic and- No, not at all.... playing it nice and patient. So LeBron after the game. Could have been your last game with the Lakers? Um,
9:46
I'm not gonna answer that. Appreciate it. All right, well- And he's out. [laughs] It's b- it was bad audio, but he was asked, "Are you gonna be with the Lakers, uh, next year?"
9:55
He was like, "Mm, I'm not gonna answer that." Um, he's done this before. He knows exactly what he's doing. Um, he ain't leaving LA. He's just setting it up so that he can get whatever he wants with management.
10:08
Let's get this guy. Let's get that guy. Yeah. I mean, he does- LeBron... like you said, he does this every time. Yeah. It's always calculated. He knows exactly what he's saying.
10:15
He knows ESPN's gonna run that soundbite, uh, soundbite 900 times between now and the next season. Um, I don't know what happens with this Lakers team. Sure, there's all this Bronny James stuff out there.
10:24
Um, you know, I, I would assume LeBron is back, but man. By the way, how about that thing where, like, Michael Porter Jr. hits AD's arm and then he crashes to the ground as if he's been shot?
10:35
Haven't we seen that before with him too, where it's like, did he really get hit that hard? Oh, it was like... That was weird. I was like, I, I- It's the second time... guess he had a stinger or something, right?
10:41
Didn't we see that last year also? Yeah. Where it happened in the playoffs where we're like, what happened to him? Well, I... That looked weird. I, I mean, if, if, if...
10:48
I, I won't re- I'm not gonna entertain this for long because I really don't think it's the last we see of LeBron James. But man, if we do, it is not age that forced him into retirement. No, he's fantastic.
10:56
It is Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets that have forced him into retire. LeBron will be 40 in December. Yeah.
11:02
Uh, Minnesota-Denver, the two-three in the Western Conference is set, and Denver's series price is north of $2, Kelly. Is this where... W- we're showing 230 here at DraftKings. Was this where you thought it would be?
11:15
Yeah, it's like exactly where I thought it was gonna be. I'm a little [laughs]...
11:19
I, I was itching to get in on, on something with Minnesota this price that was about right, right where I thought it'd be, and it's actually coming down a little bit at minus 210 a lot of places here in Vegas on Denver.
11:29
Probably will just be a, a series I end up attacking, uh, uh, game to game. All right. I think Denver has an advantage in game one. I might end up on Minnesota series price after that.
11:38
We'll get Drew Didsick's thought on that price and everything NBA and beyond. Tennis, NFL draft. It's a numbers game at Vsiz, the sports betting network. Guardians 2 coming up.
11:56
Back on a numbers game live from Bar Canada at The D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. One correction, by the way. It wasn't Mitch Haniger. It was Garver, Mitch Garver who hit the home run I was so out of my mind [laughs]
12:10
and I was like, "Yeah, whatever. Whoever hit it." [laughs] I was like- Get your Mitchs right, okay? What's that? Get your Mitchs right. Uh, Minnesota Twins great Mitch Garver, it should be pointed out.
12:19
Um, so thank you for everybody making that correction. Um,
12:22
but I also buried the headline when I was talking about we're gonna update the scenarios for both Circa bettors and for, um, Dead Heat shop bettors on this Guardians March, April bet. So you know how I said
12:37
I wasn't going to make a May bet, most wins in May, 'cause at this had been so mentally exhausting and surely whatever I do in May is not going to be nearly as exciting. The odds aren't gonna be nearly as long. Yep.
12:50
Chances are we aren't gonna get nearly as close to the finish line. You did say all this, yep. Yeah. [laughs] Let me just show a tweet before we get to Drew. This is, uh, from Mr. Lucky. Now, Mr.
13:01
Lucky, uh, I love you, and I hate you. Um, I'm kidding about the hate, but you, you'll understand what I mean here. I hear pressure.
13:08
I had no in- I had no intention of getting in on this, and I, and I did m- I did s- hold true to my promise that I would not do it at a Dead Heat shop, okay?
13:16
But apparently, not apparently, evidently middle of the day yesterday, uh, Circa put up their numbers for the first time for most wins in May, and Mr.
13:25
Lucky on Twitter, Mr._Lucky_777 to be exact, he, uh, throws this up with an LFG, and posts a screenshot of several teams in the most May wins market at Circa in Major League Baseball.
13:40
And my only response was, after looking at it- [laughs]... oh, no. So ladies and gentlemen, not only will we update the Ap- the March, April Guardians play, but I will reveal my play for May as well.
13:54
Dear God, I can't believe I'm doing this again. Drew Dincic joins us, everybody.
13:57
He's the host of not one, but two podcasts, the Deep Dive with Andy Molator, Dincic Classic, and of course, the new Dincic, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher.
14:05
He joins us now from his lair in the LBC, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Drewsky, how you doing, man? Not too bad. That Orioles, uh, 11 to one is kind of tasty.
14:14
Uh, Orioles playing some pretty good baseball right now. I don't know, and I'm, I'm, uh, I'm, I'm intrigued to see where you're going here. Yeah, Samich on the show yesterday s- said he might play the Blue Jays 28 to 1.
14:23
I think he did. So he took the Blue Jays 28 to 1, most wins in May. Um, before we get to the derby, which I... By the way, you going to Churchill Downs for this? Yep, uh, getting on a plane tomorrow about this time.
14:35
What a life. What a life. Do you, uh, have one of them, uh, mint juleps? Do you, do you dress up for this, Drew? What do you do? Uh, dress up, yes. [laughs] That's part of the pomp and circumstance. Yeah. No question.
14:47
Yeah. Uh, mint juleps are disgusting. Yeah. Um, they are way too sweet of a beverage. They have, uh, some other alternatives there. The Woodford Spire is a pretty good one.
14:56
Um, but, uh, just in general, I, I like a, a drink with a little less heat when it comes to the sweet. Uh, and, uh, so for those reasons, one mint julep just for the tradition is about all I can do.
15:08
Um, because I, you know, look, like the flavor profile, it's fine, but the way they make them there is just, it- the simple syrup is just over the top. So, uh, can't, can't do it. Uh, can't do more than one.
15:18
Any man who uses the phrase flavor profile knows what he's talking about. [laughs] Let's, let's bookmark that. We'll get to the 150th Run for the Roses here momentarily, and get your thoughts on the race.
15:28
Uh, but first, and then we'll see if you have any tennis, we'll talk NBA. Would you like to do a brief postscript on the NFL draft? It did not go- Oh, sure, sure, sure...
15:37
did not go well for you as, as you were very transparent about. Um, what ha- happened?
15:43
Well, uh, so first of all, it should be very clear that, uh, uh, I take draft betting very seriously because of just historical kind of, uh, reasons, and, uh, it's embarrassing to lose on a market that is informational, but, you know, information based.
15:58
Uh, and last year, I got caught up in solving the puzzle and, like, kind of overthinking things as opposed to just listening to the guys with the information who came through in spades on the day of, uh, and, uh, I paid the price for it last year.
16:11
So this year, my plan coming in was, well, I'm just gonna wait for the mail.
16:14
Um, and, uh, in general, uh, as far as getting decent sized betting, you know, bet, bets in on the draft, you're kind of stuck just betting the top.
16:24
Uh, like exact picks two three had something like, what, 10 times the limits per click, uh, that, uh, over-unders did and things like that offshore.
16:32
So, uh, I was really just kind of preying on those markets, hoping that the mail was correct, and it turned out it was, uh, it was all poison. Uh, and that is the way it goes. I will do it again next year.
16:42
Same approach, I think. Uh, and I, and ultimately, um, yeah, it was, uh, it was a rough, uh, rough way to go. I mean, the, the swinging for the fences on the, on the big prices failed.
16:51
And then, uh, and then to make things worse, uh, you had, uh, a late run of wide receivers that sunk my big jumpers- Oh, I, I've-... which, uh, really, really stung. So it's a- I was th- Yeah.
17:01
I was thinking of you the whole time that happened, Drew. Oof. Oof. I was like, "This dude does not deserve to have this happen to him as well."
17:08
[laughs] Um, I was like, uh, with apologies to Kelly Bitland, who was the beneficiary of such things, so. Yeah, yeah. You, you know, you know when I knew I was in trouble was when the Chiefs traded up, uh- Yeah...
17:18
'cause then you're like, "Oh, oh God," like they're only doing this if it's to take a wide receiver, and it was. Yeah. And it was like, oh God, that, uh...
17:25
Now, like, anyone who has eyes for a wide receiver is gonna reach, and, and sure enough, you have the Niners of the world taking the Ricky Pearsalls, who I've learned is a player. Ricky Pearsall. Um, yeah.
17:36
Yep, from Florida. Yeah, yeah. And, uh, yeah, you know, it was, it's a, it was, uh, that was a tough way to go down.
17:41
Uh, and, uh, I think I had some over nine, out nine and a half offensive linemen that didn't come through.
17:47
Um, my threading the needle on some of the, uh, over-unders for offensive defensive players missed 'cause there was a record number, what, 23 or something offensive players.
17:56
And, uh, yeah, it was, uh, it was just all around gross. Uh, and, uh, funny enough, like, um, Thur- Thursday night, I was just on like full tilt.
18:06
I was like, I just have to like close every account Put away my phone, like I'm gonna do something stupid. [laughs] And so- Yeah...
18:14
uh, and then Friday, Saturday, Sunday, rather than like get involved betting-wise, uh, ended up going to the, the Congressional Cup, uh, here down in Long Beach. We had a, you know, very famous sailing race.
18:24
You of course know it because the winner of the Congressional Cup gets the, uh, crimson blazer. Sure. Uh, and, uh- Sure. Who doesn't know that, Drew?
18:30
There was the 56th, yeah, 56th running of the crim- of the, uh, of the Congressional Cup in Long Beach. And, uh, this is sailing match racing.
18:37
[laughs] Uh, and there was no way to bet on it other than like $5 with my friends who were there watching with me.
18:43
And it was, it was kind of a good way to sort of reset and not, uh, just kind of tilt and dump, uh, you know, on, uh, considering the, uh, state of mind I was in after losing all the Met Draft bets.
18:53
So, uh, it was a- I've- It was a fun weekend. And, uh, hat tip to Chris Poole, uh, for taking down his second, uh- Sure... uh, Congressional Cup. Sure. Well, K- And, uh, I mean really and truly.
19:01
It was a passing of the baton, uh, Gil. Obviously. Uh, he beat, he beat seven-time world champion Ian Williams. I mean, like- Oh, this man. This, this kid, this kid from Connecticut, he has got something.
19:11
I don't know if ultimately this will translate to Olympic success, uh, in Paris, but I will be b- I will be watching the sailing quite closely.
19:19
[laughs] W- what's the specialty cocktail out at the, uh- What, what, what- At the Congressional Club? [laughs] Okay.
19:25
So they sell the little splits of, uh, champagne, and they give you a little funnel to put on top so that you can sip it like a, a gentleman. Yeah. Ian Williams won seven in a row, Kelly.
19:35
Clearly that guy has not met anybody in my tribe. [laughs] Um, let me just say this. Uh, one, first of all, Rufus is someone who I think sailed at Yale. That, Rufus Peabody, I believe. Possibly.
19:46
So like he tried to- Really? Yes. I think he tries to handicap sailing as well. Like, it's a whole thing.
19:52
Um, I, the last question is about the draft before we move on, and, and you, you answered in there, you answered it already, which is you said, you know, you want to, you, you will be betting this next year again.
20:05
And I did want to ask that just a little more clearly because one of the things that I said was, are, is anyone capable of having a good year in a draft now? Sure. Um, our own Matt Humans just destroyed it- Right...
20:18
right? But there was this, uh, so good on him. Uh, Will Hill did very well. But are the days of just knowing that it's going to be a winner every year, them days are over, aren't they? Uh, yeah, maybe. I, I don't know.
20:32
It's p- it's, uh... I guess it probably depends on the year, but for me, yes. [laughs] Yeah. I guess that's the answer. Yeah.
20:38
Uh, our friend, uh, you know, our friend from the, the Mega Pod, Luke, uh, he went like 15 and two or something. Did he really? We're in, we're in all the same chats.
20:47
We're in all, we're getting all of the same information, and he was just, uh, he was just picking his spots more effectively. Good for him. He was like, "Okay, this guy's gonna get buzz.
20:54
He's, he's gonna, he's going up boards. I'm taking a, I'm taking an under now. This guy's going down. I'm taking an over now."
20:59
And like, you know, uh, not, not to, you know, uh, like unit shame or anything, but like- Yeah...
21:05
and, and he's in a legal market, so he has access to more books and, you know, you can, I'm sure he, he, he made, he made it all worthwhile.
21:11
But like while he was making most of his very, very good bets on the draft, I had one option, Mr. Irrelevant.
21:18
[laughs] Like I mean that was kind of like the world that I was living in, uh, as far as, you know, just, you know, the menu of choices, so. When the wide- Uh, that- When the... W- I'm, I'm sorry to interrupt.
21:27
When the wide outs thing happened at the end, Drew, it was one of those moments, and if you've bet long enough and you have friends who bet, you know this feeling where you're like, "I'm not going to text Drew.
21:36
I'm just not going to text him." [laughs] "I'm gonna give him time, and he'll come out whenever he's ready to come out."
21:43
Uh, real quick in, uh, 60 seconds before we go to break, 'cause we'll talk NBA and Derby on the other side. Anything in Madrid or you've, you've completely steered away from Madrid in tennis?
21:51
No, no, Madrid has been amazing. Are you kidding? Oh, good. Okay. This has been a great tournament. Well, you- Like shockingly good.
21:57
Um, and the match-ups left here are, are very, very good and very important, I think, to watch. Um, uh, on the women's side, I have a big old bet on Aryna Sabalenka to ship at I think five to one.
22:09
She of course is the defending champion here. Uh, and she's got a match up tomorrow again after, after ending the Danielle freaking Collins streak yesterday. Yes. Yes.
22:19
Uh, she's got a re- a rematch of last year's, uh, beat down on, uh, uh, Mirra Andreeva, uh, tomorrow, and I think she can come through.
22:25
So, uh, still a long way to go 'cause Iga's playing darn good tennis, but, uh, Madrid has been phenomenal. She sure is. Iga Świątek, the world number one. All right, so Sabalenka against Andreeva.
22:35
He's got Sabalenka, uh, tomorrow. We'll come back. NBA, Derby with Drew. It's on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Game live from Bar Canada at The D.
22:47
Gil Alexander, Kelly Hedlund, and Drew Dintzer kind enough to join us for a second consecutive segment. Uh, just to clarify on the tennis, uh, Drew has Sabalenka to win Madrid.
22:56
He is not playing Sabalenka money line against Mirra Andreeva, the good Andreeva sister, uh, Kelly, for Jonathan Vontobel fans out there. [laughs] The, the, the one at VSiN Legend? Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
23:06
VSiN Legend Erika Andreeva, who's good too, by the way, but not quite as good as Mirra. Ugh. Uh, all right, back with Drew, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. You can follow Drew, by the way, on Twitter.
23:14
I didn't mention this before. Not only does he d- the d- not only does he do the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast, but @whale_capper on the old Twitter machine. Um, okay. NBA, sir. Hmm.
23:27
Let's talk about the three games.
23:29
W- let's talk about three games tonight, two games tomorrow, and then let's talk about the series price that has been established for the conference semis between the T-Wolves and the Denver Nuggets.
23:36
First of all, tonight, triple header beginning once again with, uh, the Knicks and the Sixers.
23:41
Knicks looking to close out the Sixers in game five back at Madison Square Garden, minus four and a half, total 202 and a half. Anything here?
23:50
Uh, so I'm riding out Knicks series as the biggest bet that I had coming into this, uh, round one of the playoffs, and I'm riding out Knicks minus two and a half games as well.
23:59
So, uh, fi- a 4-1 Knicks, uh, win would be just absolutely wh- exactly what the doctor ordered tonight. Uh, but, uh, I think four and a half is a little high.
24:09
My fair was three and a half here, so, uh, I wouldn't go run and bet into the Knicks right now. The total 202 and a half is a little high as well. I would've made this one closer to 201.
24:19
Um, and ultimately, like, man, these unders are running, like, so hot. It's, um, it's unbelievable. Face melting hot unders right now in the NBA playoffs.
24:28
And, you know, the later we get into these series, the more these teams have solved each other, the more this becomes, you know, s- longer possessions at the end of the games and, you know, more iso. Yeah, it's...
24:38
I would expect that we see continued d- depression of the totals here. Uh, so I think, uh, if you made me make a bet on that game, I would take an under 202 and a half. Okay.
24:47
Uh, Magic-Cavaliers game five, series knotted up at two apiece. We're back in Cleveland now. There's been a 20-point lead in each of these first four games. Uh, home court has meant everything.
24:58
Cavs now back to a four and a half point favorite, total 201 and a half.
25:02
Yeah, so, um, [clears throat] I am, uh, losing faith in the Cavaliers being able to ultimately get this one home, and, uh, I'm taking some defensive precautions by playing their team total under 10, uh, 3 did I get?
25:15
103, I think. Um, the, uh, 103 and a half, excuse me. 103 and a half, I'm on the under for the Cavs, and I'll, I'll ultimately, like, this is, uh, pre, pre, uh, series I have bets.
25:28
I laid the price on the, uh, Magic, I'm excuse me, on the Cavs to, uh, to win the series at minus 190, and we're back to that same price.
25:36
Um, and I, uh, I, I, you know, I've just kind of lost face- faith in this kind of g- gutless group of, uh, um, you know, basketball players in Cleveland.
25:45
And, you know, the Magic have sol- you know, they look at least like they're, you know, some of the, um, uh, you know, just in general nerves of first time playoffs of, w- is starting to wear off for them.
25:57
Uh, and the, uh, I think ultimately the defense that they have with their best lineup, uh, particularly end of game, is just so f- so good. Uh, seeing the Cavaliers break 100 here would be surprising.
26:07
Uh, very sincere questions about Donovan Mitchell's health after he looked so good in game one. He has been very, very hit or miss since then.
26:14
Uh, and, uh, you know, I think the second-best player for the Cavs is Jarrett Allen. That's a problem.
26:19
I think Franz Wagner is, you know, kind of taking matters into his own hands in terms of aggressive, um, creation, and that is working phenomenally well to help the Mavericks, excuse me, help the Magic, uh, snap out of some of their, uh, half court woes.
26:32
So, uh, I could see the Magic winning this game and winning the series, but, uh, it's largely gonna be on the hands of defense.
26:38
And so, uh, Cleveland Cavaliers was sort of my way to try to get out of a Cavs series bet, and we'll see if I can thread the needle where the Cavs ultimately win without ever scoring 100 points in this series.
26:48
[laughs] Cavs, who openly tanked to once again face the Magic. And then there's the, uh, Pacers and the Bucks. It's game five. It could be a closeout game for the Pacers. They're up three to one.
26:57
Remember, though, it is in Milwaukee.
26:58
Still no Giannis, still no Dame, and in some weird way, with the Pacers favored by four and the total at 215, in some weird way, with the looming specter always of Giannis or Dame, 'cause you never know when they might appear,
27:12
maybe it's still a pressure situation for the Pacers here? Yeah, and I, I put a line through Dame. I think, I think it's very unlikely we see him.
27:20
But, uh, I do in the back of my head think there is a non-zero chance that Giannis is upgraded from doubtful to questionable, uh, during the course of today.
27:29
Uh, at least from what I've heard, he seemed like he was doing a pretty decent amount of work on Sunday.
27:34
And, uh, he is always the kind of guy that, uh, I err on the side of going, uh, when you think it's very unlikely that he goes, 'cause he does tend to perform well through these type of injuries.
27:45
And I think, um, you know, his style of offense in particular is not as important in terms of rhythm, uh, as say some of the other guys who have missed big time. So, uh, I played some Bucks money line.
27:57
Uh, it, uh, it feels like a gamble.
27:59
[laughs] But, uh, and ultimately if there is no Giannis in this game and I'm counting on, you know, Bobby Portis and, um, you know, Pat Beverley, like, I'm gonna feel pretty stupid because...
28:09
You know, that, but, like, like the fun takeaway or the main takeaway here is I- people are gonna give the Pacers flowers for whatever happens here, right? Like they, they've, they've exceeded expectations.
28:21
They're gonna get a pat on the back. I'm not seeing it. Like, this team is not playing as well as I think they are giving credit for. There's been a lot of shooting luck for them at the, particularly at home.
28:30
Uh, and I think, uh, they're gonna be a pretty, uh, a pretty clear bet against next round the way the market is pricing them right now. Anything tomorrow before we get to the Derby?
28:38
So the Heat looking to, uh, actually the Celtics looking to close out the Heat back in Boston, 13 and a half point favorites. That's a total of 200.
28:46
And then game five between the Mavericks and the Clippers back in LA, but the Mavericks are two and a half point road favorites. 209 the to- the total, pardon me, there.
28:55
Yeah, I'm at a pick'em there, so I can't get to two and a half, uh, and I'm at 207, so I did play, uh, some Clippers two and a half, and I played some under 209. I have no opinion on Heat-Celtics.
29:06
I assume the Celtics come through, uh, and, uh, just kind of eagerly awaiting for more details on the Kristaps Porziņģis, uh, calf d- calf injury 'cause, you know, uh, it probably not gonna matter a ton for this next, you know, next round of the playoffs.
29:20
But for the Eastern Conference Finals, it certainly will. And for the finals, if the Celtics get there, it certainly will. So, uh, that's kind of the only thing to really key, you know, monitor, monitor with the Celtics.
29:29
And, um, yeah, I think, uh, Mavericks-Clippers to me is, is a coin flip.
29:33
I, I'm surprised that there's still as much enthusiasm for this Mavericks team, uh, as there exists in market, considering Luka looks pretty hobbled and his three-point shot has completely abandoned him.
29:43
And, uh, you know, you have Kyrie, who is finally solving some of the Clippers defense that really was, you know, stumping him early in the series.
29:52
Uh, but the rest of the supporting cast for this Mavericks is not as good as they were billed. Okay. Uh, so the Knicks are your biggest position. That's what you're really, uh, keyed in on tonight. Need, yeah, yeah.
30:01
Nick's, Nick's coming through with ju- you know, just, just, yeah Okay... just win, please. We got three minutes. Let's talk about the 150th Run for the Roses, the Derby, with Fierceness as the favorite.
30:12
Uh, the short shot, if you will. Just, uh, south of $3 right now. Sierra Leone right behind Fierceness. How you doing? How you betting this? Well, uh, you know,
30:24
if there's one common theme for all of 2024 to this point, it is that chalk has been pretty much unbeatable. Um, and so it is tempting to just line up with Fierceness. Uh, he is the fastest horse.
30:35
He has the best, uh, you know, his, his data in the preparation races was, is infallible. Like, he is clearly the fastest horse.
30:44
Uh, I have sort of taken a stand against him, uh, as I continue to try to find a way into a huge price [laughs] in the year 2024 that has not come.
30:54
Uh, and, uh, the reasoning on betting against Fierceness is, um, this is a very, very fast, early speed... There's, this is, this is kind of a, a Derby of years gone by.
31:07
Uh, they changed the qualification prac- uh, um, the, like, uh, methodology for the Derby, uh, to make, to get the better horses in the field and to try to keep some of the sprinters out.
31:17
Um, but because of this particular run-up where you had a lot of the really, really good three-year-olds get scratched and/or kind of flame out and/or not be allowed to run because of, um, you know, Bob Baffert being suspended, uh, it's, it's a little bit of a lean field, and a lot of sprinters got in.
31:33
And you have early speed in this race, uh, in addition to Fierceness, who is a front-runner.
31:39
Uh, and I think in particular the fact that you have a horse like Door Knock get drawn into the one, uh, and he is an early speed horse, and they're just gonna have to go, uh, I think this sets up similarly to the race we had last year and the year before where the early fractions were just blazing hot, uh, and that caused, uh, you know, two years ago it caused a complete pace m- meltdown.
31:59
Uh, last year it caused, uh, a, a little bit of an opportunity for Mage to come through off of, he was 17th to the wire, uh, at, at the first, um, you know, at the first turn, uh, and then ultimately kind of worked his way through the pack to win.
32:13
And I kind of think this is how this race sets up more so than Fierceness being able to go wire to wire. Uh, so I'm, I'm circling some of the horses that have, uh, closing speed.
32:23
Uh, and I think, uh, the one that I'm the most excited about is Honor Marie, who I bet into in the fixed pool at 20 to 1. And the case for Honor Marie is, you know, he runs off the pace.
32:36
He's, he could be the last horse [laughs] to cross the first wire. Like, it wouldn't shock anyone.
32:40
Um, but I will say that what we've seen from him this week working out is a lot more tactical speed than people re- you know, realized he has.
32:47
Uh, and he's a horse that seems to be taking the right steps in terms of improvement, uh, to where if this is a fast first portion of the race and you have Fierceness on the lead and using his energy coming from 17 to get out to the, to the lead, that's a longer trip, uh, I think you have a potential for him to kind of run out of gas at some point, uh, which will set up the, the opportunity for Honor Marie.
33:08
Uh, Catching Freedom is sort of the other one that fits that exact mold. Uh, and I kind of see Catching Freedom and Ho- Honor Marie having a, a showdown down the stretch, uh, to, to determine the winner.
33:19
And, uh, Catching Freedom got Honor at, uh, the Louisiana Derby, and, uh, this time the tables will turn, and our 20 to 1 will get in. Honor Marie, right around 20 to 1, as Drew said. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it.
33:31
Best of luck, guys. Guardians next. Kentucky Derby time. Are you ready for the greatest two minutes in sports? Saddle up with DK Horse, an official DraftKings affiliate.
33:46
Right now, new customers who download the DK Horse app can get a 100% deposit bonus up to $250 when they opt in with code VSINHORSE, all one word.
33:55
Just deposit $25 or more and complete the pil- uh, the play through requirement. Download DK Horse now to join the Run for the Roses action only on the DK Horse app. It's Gil Alexander, it is Kelly Bidlin.
34:07
Uh, now for the good part. Not that Drew wasn't awesome, but you know what I'm talking about here. [laughs] Yeah, I know what you're talking about. When you gonna get to the good part?
34:15
[laughs] What you know about Houdini, by the way, Kelly? Uh, great magician. Yeah, not that Houdini. [laughs] Um, okay. So here is the diliosis. By the way, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
34:25
Can I read a couple tweets first? You gonna do that? Is that nice? Of course. Um, oh, the numbers guy just said, "No Beating The Book Derby edition? Maybe next year?" We haven't really done a Derby pod in a long time.
34:35
It's called Friday. Yeah. [laughs] Chris Falica for two segments and Drew Dincic live from the track. Riley Grant, "Enjoy hearing, uh, Drew handicap the 150th Kentucky Derby on ANG.
34:46
Might be the best summary of the race heard all week." There you go. Uh, this is from Mike Alvarez, "I had the over one and a half times," he's talking to Drew here.
34:55
He says, "I had the over one and a half times you were asked for Gray Poupon during the Crimson Cup. Please let me know if it cashes."
35:01
[laughs] "Beez Betts, with a name like Rufus Peabody, I am not shocked to hear that he sailed at Yale." [laughs] Um, and then everybody... Oh, here's one. JasonH11, "Totally agree with Bidlin about sports books.
35:13
The Bar Outside or adjacent are the best. Overhang Bar at Circa, the bar adjacent to The Mirage, et cetera.
35:19
Little video poker, a Jack and a ginger, and not having an obnoxious sports fan in your ear is the, is the shizzle," he says. [laughs] The shizzle.
35:28
And then there, there are just a myriad, just too many to read, uh, of folks. Again, and let me just say this about the Guardians bet.
35:35
The reason this has been so much fun is not only that it's the perfect length bet, again, not as short as a tennis tournament, not as long as a season where your mind will inevitably drift about futures, but this is almost, you know, a perfect month, little extra change in the March, April.
35:49
And so it is the perfect length to get immersed in something. And the, the joy of this has been that so many of you have tailed the bet, um, to the extent that the reasoning back in March resonated. I appreciate that.
36:02
And Kelly, I will say this again. It's not only the people who have tailed, but it is so many folks on Twitter who are not even financially incentivized who are rooting this on that have been so kind. I love you all.
36:14
It's really been awesome. It's fun, yeah. It's fun to, to do it as a group. Now, here's the deal. Everybody's got one game left. I mean, the Cardinals and Tigers play a double header today, but they're not involved.
36:25
So everybody's got a game left today. The Braves are 19 and 8, the Guardians are 19 and 9, the Yankees and Phillies are 19 and 11, the Dodgers are 19 and 12.
36:36
By the way, you have the Orioles and Cubs also with 18 wins, a game behind in, in the win column, if you will. The Orioles are 18 and 10, the Cubs 18 and 11. Here's the deal.
36:47
After yesterday's unbelievable trifecta of the Orioles beating the Yankees, the Angels coming from behind to beat the Phillies, and then in dramatic fashion, Mitch Garver, two run Jimmy Jack in the ninth to beat the Braves for the Mariners.
37:02
There you go, Garver. Way to go, Mitch Garver. [laughs] Mitch Garver was hitting 30 homers a year and nobody knew his name in Minnesota, by the way. Apparently, I didn't even know his name yesterday.
37:11
I was gonna say, I'm just learning about him. [laughs] Um, okay. Here is the scenario for those of us, we'll do both. We'll do Circa and we'll do dead heat shops.
37:19
For those of us who bet this at Circa, remember, there's no dead heat on this at Circa.
37:23
Circa's tiebreaker rules are if the same, or if two or more teams finish with the same number of wins, the first tiebreaker is fewest losses, and the second would be best run differential. Right now,
37:36
Braves and Guardians have the exact same run differential, the best in baseball. But the Braves have one fewer loss.
37:45
So for us to win the bet at Circa, it is very clear the Guardians must beat the Astros tonight, and the Braves must lose to the Mariners tonight. That's it, Kelly. That's it. Simple. Very simple.
38:00
Guardians must beat the Astros. They're an underdog, by the way. Carlos Carrasco is shaky. Not quite as shaky as the Astros starter, Hunter Brown, by the way. And then we gotta get a big game later
38:12
from Luis Castillo of the Mariners. Gotta be good Castillo tonight. That's it at Circa. Guardians win, Braves lose, we take the money. If the Guardians lose, it's a 90-minute stagger between these two games. Okay.
38:27
Guardians start 90 minutes earlier. If the Guardians lose, it's over. If the Braves win, it's over. It's simple. Now, for the dead heat shops, this is a little more c- it's, it's a little more complicated.
38:38
So here's the deal. There is, there's three options that could happen here at the dead heat shops. Let's go to the one that is... You could win this outright, but it's kind of outlandish.
38:48
The Guardians would have to win, and Atlanta, the Yankees, the Phillies, and the Dodgers would all have to lose for the dead heat shops to win it outright. You'd have to hit a five team parlay tonight.
39:00
Cleveland would have to win Atlanta, the Yankees, Philadelphia, the Dodgers would all have to lose. Okay, probably unlikely. Also unlikely is a dead heat scenario. Now, that was the outright.
39:11
Now, here are the dead heat scenarios.
39:14
The dead heat scenarios, the, the unlikely one is if the Guardians lose, you would also have to have Cleveland, Atlanta, the Yankees, Philly, and the Dodgers all lose as w- uh, Cleveland are obviously the team that would lose.
39:26
You'd have to have Atlanta, the Yankees, Philadelphia, and the Dodgers also lose. And by the way, in that scenario, the Cubs and/or Orioles could join the dead heat if they won. Okay. Yeah.
39:37
That's probably not gonna happen either- Yeah... 'cause not all those teams are gonna lose. You would figure one of them would win, at least. Here's the most likely result, though, for dead heaters. Yeah.
39:47
Which is the one in the middle. Which is, again, which would you rather have? Would you rather have the two team parlay to win it all at Circa? Yes.
39:55
Or would you rather have the surer thing, which is all you have to do to get into a dead heat for the dead heat shops is if the Guardians win, you're getting money of some kind in a dead heat.
40:08
The issue becomes if the Guardians win,
40:13
but Atlanta, any of Atlanta, New York, Yankees we're talking, Philly, or the Dodgers win too, you're either in a two team dead heat, a three team dead heat, a four team dead heat, or a five team dead heat.
40:26
And again, with dead heat math, yes, they split it. They divide it among how many winners. So if it were four, let's say, you'd have to divide it four ways, but then you also reduce the stake.
40:38
So it's the math, how can I put this? Dead heat math sucks. So if the Guardians win and you're in a dead heat shop, what you're really hoping for is
40:48
as much carnage of those four other teams, Atlanta, the Yankees, Philly, and the Dodgers. Yeah. I mean, once you get past chopping that, like, one, one other way, man- Yeah... it, it gets brutal. Yeah.
40:59
So that's- I, I think I'd r- it's actually, it's a good question. There's definitely a mathematical answer to what is [laughs] what position you'd rather be in.
41:06
But just, but w- non-mathematical, just you instinct as a bettor. Yeah. Would you rather be in the position of two team parlay, you win the 65 to 1?
41:14
That's what I got it, and other people got it 50 to 1, 40 to 1, whatever. Two team parlay, Guardians win, Braves lose. Remember, the Braves are a favorite, and the Guardians are a dog.
41:24
That's what I was just going to look up. Okay. Would you rather be in that position, winner take all or nothing, or would you rather be in the dead heat position where it's more likely,
41:33
right, that you just split it and you get something out of the final ticket here? And by the way, along the way, we've all made money betting the Guardians. I had the one hedge against them, right, that, that hit.
41:45
It, it's not a question of losing at this point. But there's nothing like anywhere close to what we could have tonight. I mean, I guess the answer is you have, you'd rather have a dead heat? Eh, for me.
42:00
But, like, I don't know. I- No, 'cause I-... I lean that way, too. I wouldn't because the dead heat could be so many ways. It could be so many ways. It could be so many multiple ways.
42:07
I mean, you're gonna get dead heated to death. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. But here's the deal. I am rooting for all of us. I hope we all win dead heat. Like, I hope if I can't win at Circa, I hope you all win dead heating.
42:20
I really do. I hope folks make tons of money off this. And here's the deal now, 'cause we're a long way. I, I'm not getting excited about it. We got two big outcomes tonight. But yesterday we showed the tweet earlier.
42:33
Uh, the gentleman who t- who tweeted out Circa put out May, most wins in May in Major League Baseball, Mr. Lucky, Mr. underscore Lucky underscore 777.
42:42
I said I wasn't gonna get involved, but Circa put out their numbers, and he was kind enough to post them on my Twitter feed yesterday.
42:49
And my response was a simple, once I looked at the handful of teams that he had up there, I just go, "Oh, no," because I saw a price in those six teams, or excuse me, the seven teams that he posted there. Was that eight?
43:01
Eight teams that he posted there. I saw a team and I'm like, "Oh, no. Is that really the price on them?" Kelly Bidlin, do you have any idea who I, who I selected? Oh, you do, 'cause I told you. Oh, I, uh...
43:16
Wait, did, wait, did you? [laughs] Now, now I'm, now I'm misremembering. Yes, I did. Yes. I mean, you went back to Guardians, right? The Cleveland Guardians. Okay, I was just- Again... just looked at me weird.
43:24
[laughs] In the month of May. Kelly just spoiled the fun. The Cleveland Guardians again. This time not as sexy of a number. It's 16 to one. But I am going back to the Guardians well, whether we win or not here.
43:40
16 to one, and here's the reason, Kelly. You ready? Their schedule, once again, is unbelievably, ridiculously fortuitous. Cleveland Guardians 16 to one. Want a little snapshot of who they gotta play?
43:56
Three versus the Angels at home, four at the White Sox, three at the Angels, three at the Rockies. That, sir, is 13 of their 29 games scheduled in the month of May. Bottom feeders. Let's go. Let's go.
44:13
Guardians 16 to one in May. I can't believe it. I'm sorry, Adam Burke, I lied
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