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Apr 30, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 30, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 30, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. However you take us in, we appreciate it.
0:20
You don't have to do them all at once, just one of them works. We appreciate that. It's Gil Alexander alongside my little buddy, Kelly Dillon.
0:25
And when I say little, he is disappearing before our, before our very eyes, despite gaining a couple back- Very upset about that... on vacation. You, you actually made me feel better about that on the air yesterday.
0:34
Eh, take them off. The, the vacay pounds, they, they were added. You were there for a long time. And drinking a lot of frozen beverages that- [laughs]... had, had a lot, a lot of sugar in them, Gil. A lot of sugar.
0:46
Uh, well, we got a lot of sugar on this show today. Oh. I, I don't know. I don't know what I just said right there. Oh, okay. Uh, A- AJ Schultz talking, uh, NHL playoffs with us.
0:53
He's the co-host of, uh, Puck Cast with Stats Man and AJ over there at, uh, Rotowire. He plies his trade. Uh, country clubbin' with Kelly, the Byron Nelson this week, couple weeks before the PGA Championship.
1:05
Looking forward to your thoughts on that. Will Hill, all of his bets. JVT on the NBA playoffs. My God, we'll talk about this momentarily, what a couple of, uh, finishes last night that was, especially in Indiana.
1:18
I almost feel bad for the guy. I feel like every time there's some terrible Clippers loss, it's like, "Hey, JVT happens to be on the show." [laughs] And then there's that.
1:26
[laughs] The NBA hardos taking it on the chin with the Clippers at this point. Oh, man. JVT will be there. Uh, uh, Jason Weingarten is coming on the show.
1:34
Jason, we're gonna talk Bill Belichick's girlfriend, 'cause he's obsessed with this subject, and I actually do think there's a betting tie-in.
1:40
And Jason, if there's one thing he's more obsessed with, with, with than Shedeur Sanders and Bill Belichick's girlfriend, it's 100 Men versus a gorilla. Jason has concocted an entire plan to defeat the gorilla.
1:53
Oh, so he's on my side? Uh- He's on your side, and the both of you are ridiculous, and someone on Twitter said it. I, uh, forgive me if I don't remember who it was.
2:01
But they said, "Gil, you love betting against human achievement. This is your finest- Oh, this was [laughs]... this is your finest moment." Oh, you're right. This is the ultimate. That was a great tweet yesterday.
2:10
[laughs] This is the finest moment. I gotta find that. [laughs] Um, and of course, I am burying the headline, coming up this hour,
2:17
May win, May most wins Major League Baseball, which we have done as a little cottage industry here on this show. I know others do it as well. Um, our history on this is a very solid one.
2:28
Uh, we hit June last year on the Astros, both at 25 to 1 and 17 to 1. We came one out shy in March, April, hitting a 65 to 1, which is the worst gut punch loss I've ever taken in anything in my life. Mm.
2:42
Uh, came a game away in May last year. Uh, July, April, July, August, September, not so great last year, and then the worst call was this year, um, for the, for the March, April, which was the Twins. But Kelly,
2:55
I just picked the wrong market on the Mets. I did the Mets race to 10, and it looks like the Mets... Well, not looks like.
3:00
The Mets, for all intents and purposes, have clinched the Circa March, April, where run differential is the, uh, is the tiebreaker.
3:08
[clears throat] Something ridiculous would have to happen tonight for that not to manifest, and they have clinched at least the dead heat for the William Hill Caesars March, April win as well.
3:20
By the way, DraftKings, like last year, begging out of anything beyond March, April. It's kind of, it's kind of weird.
3:28
Is it, uh, is it that they don't want people having seen a month of baseball, or is it a technology shortcoming? No, no, I w- No, it's definitely not the second one. I don't know if it's not definitely that.
3:38
I, I just wonder. Well, the wei- I guess the weirder part to me is I don't know for sure that they weren't the first ones to start this market.
3:46
Uh, th- I will tell you that I noticed it at Caesars William Hill first last year. Okay, okay. But I, I, I could be wrong. I don't know. But anyway, they did this last year.
3:54
They, so it's only gonna be- They bowed out after we, yeah, after the first month... so it's only gonna be Circa and William Hill Caesars. Those are the only two shops. Uh, for May, we will get to it. I have my play.
4:02
I will tell you why I'm playing it.
4:05
But as far as the, uh, Mets-Dodgers, as soon as the Mets started crushing Arizona yesterday, I spent the whole game, knowing that I picked them race to 10, but not for, for the month, I spent the entire game jabbing my pupils with the sharp point of a pencil.
4:18
You shouldn't do that, bro. Yeah. If anything, use the other side. I mean- I re- I recovered pretty well still. Okay, uh, NBA, last night.
4:25
Uh, this is, the one series of the first round that we probably talked the least about was the Pacers and the Bucks, though Wyatt tried to make it a thing.
4:34
I kept telling Wyatt, I was like, "Yeah, the Pacers are just a better team. Pacers are just a better team." Um, but you know, he's a Bucks fan, and I get it. I, I had a Pacers series bet.
4:41
Um, Pacers end up winning this in five. They beat the Bucks, uh, by one point, and they d- they beat them 119 to 118 last night.
4:52
But if you're just looking at the final score of this, my goodness, they beat them in overtime. First of all, Milwaukee led by four in regulation with under a minute left. Giannis at the line on a and one.
5:03
He misses that free throw. Tyrese, two free throws, uh, then after a Milwaukee miss, a dunk by Tyrese, 'cause apparently it was just the, the matador defense the entire night against Tyrese. He gets the hoop at will.
5:16
Horrible last possession for Milwaukee in regulation, where Giannis has this like, you know, baseline jumper from f- 15 feet out, which was ridiculous. It goes to overtime. And then Milwaukee does it again.
5:28
This time they lead by seven with 40 seconds left in overtime. There's no way you're losing this. This is going back to Milwaukee. Oh, a funny thing happened on the way to the gentleman's sweep. Yeah, not so much.
5:42
They're up seven with AJ Green having one more free throw attempt, by the way. AJ Green, amazing that he played for the Bengals all those years and now with the Bucs. Yeah. Um- Talented guy... he misses the free throw.
5:54
Nembhard hits a three to cut it to four. Then Gary Trent Jr., who was awesome offensively in this game, Gary Trent Jr. ended up with 33 in this game But man, oh man, what happened to him down the stretch here?
6:08
He throws it away, throws it to Nembhard. Halliburton right to the rack, layup, and one, hits the free throw. AJ Green on the foul. Oh, awful, awful turnover, but whatever, Gil. They're still in control.
6:17
Cuts, cuts it to one. So Milwaukee is up one, right? But, you know, at the very least they'll get two free throws here, and then the Pacers will have to hit a three to tie, and you know how that goes.
6:27
Maybe they'll foul them, so they're still in the driver's seat. But then AJ Green throws the ball to Trent Jr., who lets it go through his legs out of bounds, five-hole. What was that? Oh my God. I, wait, wait, wait.
6:43
Was this a bunch of nine-year-olds playing basketball? I've... I mean, he Buckner'd it. What's the, what's the, uh, Mr. Bean music that they play in the background? The Benny Hill music in the background? Exactly.
6:51
It was that. That's like... And then of course, so the Pacers have the ball with just over 10 seconds left. They're down one. People are losing their minds, 'cause you know what's about to happen.
7:00
Halliburton just goes right to the rack, scores with just over a second left. Pacers up one, ballgame.
7:05
Then Giannis, like, flicks it three feet inbounds, [laughs] a desperation 90-footer misses, and the Pacers advance to take on the Cavaliers in the conference semifinals. Giannis 30, 20, and 13 in defeat.
7:19
Maybe his last game with the Bucks. Who knows? It's- We don't know. The Bucks made 19 threes in this game and lost, 19 of 40. They out-boarded the, uh, Pacers by eight, but 17 turnovers, including those last two.
7:35
Uh, here is from, this is from Auto- uh, Automatic NBA. The Pacers trailed by seven points with less than 40 seconds left in the game and won.
7:42
NBA playoff teams in the last 20 years were previously 0 and 1,176 when trailing by seven or more points with 40 seconds or less remaining before tonight. 0 and 1,176, Kelly. Well, now it's one and 1,176. Unbelievable.
8:00
It's wild. There were all kinds of, uh, crazy stats about the ending of this game. Um, Doc Rivers, this is another, [laughs] this is another one I pulled in.
8:10
Uh, since 2000, NBA teams 90- 943 and 19 in the playoffs of leading by seven-plus points under 35 seconds. Doc Rivers is 34 and 17 in these situations. Oh my God. Oh [laughs] my God. Yeah.
8:22
He's responsible for 17 of the 19? Yes, apparently. I'd have to double-check that stat. Pretty crazy, right? That cannot be right. I, uh, Doc's, uh...
8:31
Man, he's, uh, he- he's, he's, he's, uh, had some moments here at the end of games, uh, in his career. It is... I don't know where to st- I, I could talk about this game for 10 minutes. It is...
8:41
The fact that that last... Like, take away even some of the other points. The last Halliburton drive, I mean, it's Tyrese Halliburton versus Giannis Antetokounmpo, and it is clear everybody out.
8:53
Giannis, Defensive Player of the Year, two-time Defensive Player of the Year. I mean, squaring up against Tyrese Halliburton, and he goes right by him. Right by him. Right by him for an easy layup. And that is...
9:04
It's tough for me to say that, Gil, after Giannis, who, yes, like, there's, there's no secret. I love Giannis and Josh Allen above, like, anything else on this planet, so I will always defend him.
9:13
The dude showed up like a gladiator last night- He was great... with Damian Lillard out- Yep... and everybody writing this team off. Gian- and all these rumors swirling of is Giannis gonna be here next year?
9:24
Where is he going? Is it gonna be Miami? Is it gonna be Brooklyn? And that dude still showed up in a Bucks uniform and put up a 30, 20, 13 game and played like an absolute beast. I mean, he controlled that entire game.
9:39
And yeah, they needed the points from Gary Trent Jr. and the Base- uh, Pacers' storm back in the second half, um, and end the season.
9:46
But man, it's tip of the cap to you, Giannis, 'cause that was a hell of a game and, and you put up a heck of a fight. And you see Giannis had to deal with Tyrese's dad after the game. Right. There's this, like...
9:54
I don't, like, it, it- Did you see the Inside the NBA exchange on this? No, I did not. Oh my God. But, but, but the, it- That was about as- His, his father should not be allowed at an NBA game. No, no.
10:04
But that was about as heated a debate as there was ever on that show.
10:08
Um, Charles and Kenny taking the side what you just said, which is he should never be on the court after a game, let alone taunting somebody, father or not. You're a fan. There's no difference between a fan.
10:17
It's a fan on the court. And Shaq ridiculously taking the other side. "You should be able to deal with that. That's part of the territory." It's like, it was just a ridiculous debate. Also, what, what else?
10:26
How b- how better could Giannis have handled that? Oh, he handled it fantastic. I mean- He just looked back and... Here, so, um, bottom line here.
10:35
We have our first conference semifinal series, and, uh, you know you can't bet on anything unless it's installed, Kelly. And they installed the Cleveland Cavaliers as only, I'm gonna use that word- Mm-hmm. Yeah...
10:47
a minus 450 favorite with the, uh, Pacers plus 350 coming back. Are you surprised? Is that short? Uh, no. A little bit. I mean, we, we guessed this one a little bit yesterday.
10:57
We talked about- I thought it would be a tick higher... we thought it would be a little higher than this. So look, it would be, it's gonna be look at Cavs or nothing. But there's...
11:04
I understand the popularity around Indiana right now. I just... You've got a...
11:10
Eastern Conference is tough to separate in your mind from what you're seeing in the West versus the East, and that the top two teams in the East I still think are such a notch above. I do too.
11:19
I, I think it's gonna end up being the Knicks getting through. And the Knicks and Pacers are not bad teams. They are good teams.
11:24
But there is still a, a very big separation in tiers between where they are at and where the, uh, Cavaliers and Celtics are at. We'll get to the rest of the NBA last night with Will here on the other side.
11:34
Will Hill joins us, uh, to discuss not only the association, but everything he's betting in Major League Baseball as well today. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:44
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Want to bet smarter?
12:02
Start with smarter insights. Right now you can check out the Kentucky Derby betting guide, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, and Wes Reynolds' CJ Cup preview. That's the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
12:12
And later today, you can check out Zach Cohen's NBA best bets and player props, Jonathan Davis' NHL picks, and Steve Mackinnon's MLB analytics report.
12:19
Right now you can sign up for our summer special for only $59 for full VSiN Pro access until August 1th, uh, August 1st, that is. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
12:30
We get tweets at BettingTheBook, always appreciated. Jeremy Larson, "Paul Carr is in the category of auto tail blindly, crushing it with his picks on a, on a numbers game.
12:39
He hit the, uh, Dembele goal score yesterday within four minutes." Yeah, fourth minute. Fourth minute or within five minutes. It ended one, ended one-nothing, right? Uh, did it? Think so. Yeah.
12:47
'Cause I think it was the only goal. That was quick and easy from Paulie. Uh, let's see. This is, uh, Ryan- Did, did he kill it while I was out? You, you, did you catch my text yesterday? No.
12:57
There's some odd 2025 trends going on on the numbers game. Oh, yes. Yes. Well, like Paul Carr, I think he missed, I think he, I think he, uh, missed one bet when you were on vacation.
13:08
Like, he was flaw- basically flawless except for one game, and then like [laughs] you, you said he went three and O over the weekend when I was out. When you were gone. I'm like, "Man, this is kind of a thing."
13:16
Paul Carr needs one of us to be gone. Ryan Tijerdsma, "This is the Rockies' May schedule. I don't know who's gonna win the most games in May, but I'm pretty sure I know who's gonna win the least." Brutal schedule.
13:25
They just need to win in any month. Forget their schedules at this point. Marlon J, "A lot of sugar on the show today." I didn't know Delicious was making a cameo today.
13:33
[laughs] Uh, Chuckism1, "I found Nuggets 45 to one to win the West before game five last night. It was too good to be true. I had to take a flyer." Uh, we'll get to more of these tweets because I, I...
13:44
Real quick before we get to Will, and we'll bring in Will for this actually. Will Hill joins us now, @notthewillhill. That's with two Es on the the on Twitter. He's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast.
13:54
Comes to us courtesy of Progressive, uh, Guest Line, also part of the Chris Felica Bear Bets empire over there at Fox Sports, and star of the Mega Pod. How you doing, Will? Boys, what's going on? Thanks for having me.
14:04
Always good to join you guys. Uh, I'm hoping one of these weeks I can come on a Friday so I can curse like everybody else, but always good to be with you. [laughs] That's right. It's a non-cursing day.
14:13
We have earmarked Wednesday as a non-cursing day. I'm just- Yeah... I'm just upset that we don't get to see Will today.
14:18
He had some microphone troubles, or we had some troubles back there, and he was, uh, he's looking ready for summer, Gil. He, he's all swole, had the T-shirt on, looked like he'd been hitting the gym.
14:27
Will's ready to show off the summer bod up there in Connecticut. Yeah. Looking, looking, uh, looking swole as the kids say. So the other, the other three NBA games.
14:34
So we talked about the, uh, the just amazing finish, ridiculous finish in Indiana as Indiana advances to take on the Cavs in the 4-1 Eastern Conference semi. But the others were Boston, gentlemen sweep against the Magic.
14:45
They finished that off. Uh, so Boston is on their way to the conference semifinals as, as well. Um, Pistons, as we briefly mentioned, they do stave off elimination.
14:56
That was the one in the East that, that was a staving off of elimination.
15:00
The Pistons are taking it back to Detroit game six on Thursday with a 106-103 win over the Knicks in an interesting finish where Tom Thibodeau, after injuries to both Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson, didn't call timeout to get either of them back on the court.
15:14
Yeah. And then JB Bickerstaff does the proper thing. He fouls up three. Yep. Way to go. Uh, so it works out for the Pistons.
15:21
And then the other one last night, and this is, I'll bring in Will, because, Will, I'm curious your thoughts on this. The NBA hardos love the Clippers.
15:27
And Kelly, you and I said, we said the whole time ago, "Does, does Nikola Jokic still play for the Nuggets? Do the Nuggets still have home court?" And the Nuggets roll last night, 131 to 115.
15:38
Game six back in Los Angeles on Thursday night, um, as the Clippers try to stave off elimination. Will, do you have a play on any of those, uh, Thursday night games or any of the two tonight?
15:51
Obviously, uh, the two games tonight, Warriors and Rockets, Lakers and T'Wolves, as both the Lakers and Rockets down 3-1 but on their home courts tonight in game five.
16:02
Yeah, I have plays in just about everything, and I am still, uh, however many hours later, just stunned at Bucks-Pacers because I was doing Beast in Prime Time with Matt Humans, and, uh, I, I turned the channel.
16:13
Matt Humans was like, "Oh, the, the Pacers were the one." I said, "How? How is it possible?"
16:17
It was, uh, what, Zach Seven was shooting a free throw with 40 seconds left, and it, it's, uh, coincidental that Greg Anthony was doing the game for NBA TV because the other great Pacer comeback in history is the, uh, the famous Reggie Miller eight points in nine seconds.
16:31
I'm not sure if you mentioned this at the beginning. Uh, and he was on the Knicks there, and he, he was famous for the slip. That led to the Reggie Steele.
16:37
So with Greg Anthony, uh, involved with both these, and Greg Anthony actually started to talk about that game, the Bucks w- game last night in the past tense.
16:45
Like, oh, you know, Giannis in both of these wins did this, this and this, and the game wasn't over. You don't usually [laughs] hear announcers do that. Just stunning.
16:51
And, uh, it looked like the Pistons were gonna do the same thing. They were very close, very lucky they didn't throw that inbounds pass away. Uh, as far as tonight, I, I just think the Warriors, I, I like the Rockets.
17:03
I think the Warriors might punt. We've seen this, them do this in the past. Last time they were up 3-1 on the road for a game five was in Memphis in 2022, and they lost by 40.
17:14
Uh, Curry played 41 minutes Saturday, 39 minutes on Monday. Uh, it's an older team, one day off in between games, th-three games in five days. I just wonder if they get behind early, do they punt here? So I like Houston.
17:27
Uh, it's a dangerous strategy to, uh, when you only have the one chance at home to close it out, to just treat this as a, you know, a gravy game and, and say, "You know what? We'll take care of it in game six."
17:37
That only leaves you one chance to close it out in game six at home. Um, and not that they can't win a, a road game seven, but, uh, I think Houston wins, and I also, I also think the Lakers win.
17:46
I think Minnesota has already been called for four fouls. The Lakers are already in the bonus. Breaking news. Uh, I, I just think the Lakers are gonna get a lot of calls tonight.
17:53
[laughs] And, uh, look, they, they have not been able to finish, so maybe you, you know, you're more interested in, like, a first half bet because the fourth quarter they just run out of steam here.
18:01
But, uh, game two when they were down one-nothing, they won, they won comfortably. I, I see a similar sort of game tonight.
18:07
Yeah, T-Wolves I think collectively outscoring the Lakers by over 30 points in the fourth quarter alone. Um, Rockets favored by four, Lakers favored by six. Just so I'm clear, are you betting both against the spread?
18:21
Yes. You are. Yeah. Okay. Uh, those are tonight's games. Anything Knicks-Pistons Thursday night, game six, Detroit favored by one and a half, total at 212.
18:31
Clip show, six and a half point favorites against the Nuggets in game six back in LA, 211 and a half the total on Thursday. Uh, I like Detroit.
18:41
I, I think this has been a weird series because the Knicks won game one at home, and the road teams I think are 4 and 0 since.
18:46
And, and actually I had, I, I was on with you guys a couple weeks ago before the playoffs started. Detroit in six, nine to one and 12 to one.
18:52
Man, I, I feel like I should be headed back to Detroit up 3-2 with a chance to either, you know, hedge or just let it ride or whatever. They, they let some games get away. They almost let last night get away, but
19:02
boy, this is starting to feel eerily similar to last year if you're the Knicks, where you just run out of bodies. Uh, the injuries start to pile up. Uh, Brunson banged up.
19:11
Uh, you know, they, they're sort of limping to the finish line here.
19:14
I think Detroit gets this one at home, and Knicks probably win in seven, but again, if you're a Knicks fan, this is probably all too familiar for you for, for, for last year.
19:22
Um, a- as far as the other one, I'm starting to see some seven with, with Denver-LA. I, I'm gonna take it.
19:28
I just, uh, I, I said this before the series, and, uh, it looked like after three games the, the Clippers were just a much better team. But, uh, I picked Denver in seven. I bet Denver in seven, plus 375.
19:38
I said, "If you don't have trust issues with the Clippers, then I have trust issues with you," because I, how do you, how do you trust this team? Harden, Kawhi, the history of everything.
19:47
Like, are you confident the Clippers are gonna win this game, game six? Are you, you...
19:51
Like, I, I could totally see a scenario where the Nuggets go in there and just close them out, so I will take the six and a half or seven.
19:58
Um, you know, life on the line, I think the Clippers probably win the game, but I, I don't trust them, and we're starting to see the old, you know, Harden in big spots.
20:05
He was just a complete non-factor last night, Christian Brown shutting him down. So, uh, I, I mean, the series has felt destined for seven the whole time, but, uh, I, I'm gonna take the points with, uh, with Denver here.
20:16
I don't know that they're gonna shoot what, uh, 17 to 33 from three last night. That was an outlier shooting performance, but it just felt like they were getting every loose ball quicker, faster.
20:26
They just, uh, I know it's a cliche to say, oh, they wanted it more, but it, it looked like they were a step faster than the Clippers last night. By the way, back to Detroit and the Knicks.
20:33
You, you, first of all, you're right, Detroit almost threw the ball away late too as, uh, as well. Um, but you mentioned it yesterday on text. You're like, "Detroit could be up five to nothing in this series."
20:42
And I said- Yeah... "Okay, easy. Maybe it's four to one, though." But they, they really coulda, shoulda perhaps won this series already.
20:48
They were up eight in the fourth quarter in game one, then they gave up that 21 to nothing, uh, streak to the Knicks, and then of course the foul that wasn't, uh, in game number four.
20:58
So, I mean, and you had what, Detroit in six to begin the series? Yeah, nine to one. Then after game one I bet it again at 12 to one. Ugh, man. Okay. Yeah.
21:07
Uh, by the way, Cleveland seven and a half point favorites in game one against the Pacers on Sunday. Any thoughts on that? No, looks about right. Um, I actually thought Cleveland would be a little bit higher.
21:18
I'm starting to hear some, like, some sentiment from the Pa- oh, the Pacers could push it to seven or maybe don't sleep on the Pacers, they could win this series. I, I don't really buy that.
21:26
To me this is tossup between either Cleveland and five or Cleveland and six. I, I don't think it's a sweep. I don't think it goes seven.
21:33
I don't think Cleveland's in any real danger of losing, so th- you know, g- tossup between five or six, but I think Cleveland's moving on. Cleveland's really, really good. All right, you got 30 seconds.
21:42
Baseball today, have you played anything? Uh, over nine and a half in Yankees-Orioles. Orioles giving up a million runs, Yankees swinging good bats. Carrasco's not very good, and Povich isn't either for the Orioles.
21:52
And how about this, four to one on the field for American League MVP Judge versus the field. Was that less than 30 seconds? [laughs] It was less than 30 seconds. I'm gonna need you to fill. No, I'm kidding.
22:02
Um, four to one against the field, does that exist anywhere? Yeah, DraftKings has the field four to one, so you can ev- get every other player in the American League. So you're saying, so which side are you on?
22:12
I like the field. You like the field. It's a long time to go. Okay. Yeah. The way you said it, I thought you were taking Judge. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah, okay.
22:17
So four to one, you're taking the field against his beloved Aaron Judge. All right. Will Hill, everybody. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it as always, man. See you guys, thanks. Will Hill at, not the Will Hill.
22:27
Once again, Shoulda Bet More, the name of his podcast. Not only is he on the Megapod, but of course, uh, with Chris Fallica over there at Bear Bets, all the Bear Bets podcast at Fox Sports.
22:36
Uh, we'll talk some hockey with AJ Schultz on the other side, and then Major League Baseball most wins month of May. I will tell you what I have bet. We have all day to bet it. [laughs] That's it.
22:48
They didn't give us much more time than that. Coming up. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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Don't miss out locking your all-in summer package now at CircaLasVegas.com. That is one heck of a deal. Uh, it is. It, it's a, it's an amazing deal. Um, this is...
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G- go check out what Circa prices are like on weekends during the football season, and then you'll realize how great of a deal this is. I, ve- very rarely, Gil, do I grab...
23:58
This is what I did w- when I, first time I saw this, I, I went into our graphics of where they are stored, copied this image, and then texted it to, like, eight people where I was like, "By the way, if you're thinking about coming out this summer-" Oh, for sure...
24:08
like, u- like, utilize this." 100%. Dr. Bob was telling me yesterday he wants to come out. I should have mentioned this to him. Yeah. Like, I got a deal for you. Uh, we got tweets that beat in the book.
24:16
Ian McDonald, "Agree with Kelly's comments about Freak's effort last night. Um, no question about it." Also, he says, uh...
24:24
Oh, this is from CRGFutures, said, "John Halliburton," that's Tyrese's dad, "is lucky Freak showed incredible restraint and didn't knock him into next week." Totally agree. I don't know what Shaq was, was talking about.
24:33
That was ridiculous. I, I mean, and this is like, uh, unfortunately, like until we ha- uh, we're not gonna have big changes when it comes to stuff like this until something like that happens.
24:42
And there wasn't even, Giannis wasn't even- Ah, he was great... yeah, I mean, he wasn't even over the top yelling at him, I thought. Like, sure, there was the kind of like in his face moment, but it's a fan on the court.
24:52
Get off the court, bro. And Charles- I don't care whose dad you are...
24:54
Charles Barkley made the point, imagine if some, some dad did that to Tyrese Halliburton after they got knocked out of a series, Tyrese's dad loses his mind.
25:02
And a couple things I can guarantee you, Shaquille O'Neal and Charles Barkley would not have handled that nearly- Yeah... as well as Giannis did. [laughs] Oh, Charles would not have.
25:11
Stringfellow Hawk, "Going to miss, uh, Jason's gorilla breakdown as my wife's giving her doctoral dissertation this morning. I'll catch it on the podcast."
25:19
First of all, Stringfellow, tell your wife, uh, break a leg, good luck to her. Also, your choice between that and the gorilla dissertation is, is a curious one. Well, maybe that's- Well...
25:27
maybe it's a doctoral dis- dissertation on- On the gorilla... on the gorilla. Yeah. Shrek McFee, "Seeing this quote from Dion during his draft makes the entire Shedeur situation much more believable.
25:37
Different times, but not very different attitudes. Self-inflicted," he said. And this is the Dion quote from when he was being drafted, and I remember this draft unlike any other. He said, "I was in the Giants room."
25:46
This is Dion back in 1989. "I was in the Giants room. They sat me down and gave me a thick book, thicker than a phone book. I said, 'What's this?' They said, 'This is our test we give all the players.'
25:55
I said, 'Excuse me, what pick do you have in the draft?' They said, '10th pick.' I said, 'I'll be gone before then. I ain't got time for this,' and I left."
26:01
And there are some reports that, uh, Shedeur, if he weren't picking in the top five to seven picks, he wasn't interested either, and he tanked the interviews. Yep. Yep.
26:10
Um, and then Matt F., "A gentleman's sweep only occurs when it goes [clears throat] W-W-W-L-W. The L after up three to nothing is the gentleman part, as if you let them win one so it wasn't a sweep.
26:22
Any other four to one win is not a gentleman's sweep."
26:25
Matt, I agree with your literal interpretation of a gentleman's sweep, but do you really think the Orlando Magic did not get gentleman swept out of the Celtic series? They did not follow that format either.
26:35
So I'm just saying, there should be a little leeway here. Yeah, completely agree. Yeah. Uh, oh, one more, pardon me. J- 'cause I need this, 'cause I said, when you put this up, I said, "This can't be real.
26:43
I have to double-check." Jack, the guy who tweeted that ridiculous Doc Rivers stat that Kelly gave later tweeted, "I made this up because StatMuse didn't have the actual numbers."
26:52
[laughs] I knew that couldn't have been real. That could not have been real. Uh, let's talk some hockey. Yeah.
26:56
First time ever on the show, AJ Scholz, editor, uh, for Roto Wire, co-host of the Puck Cast, which he does with Stat Man and AJ. You can follow him on Twitter at AJScholz24. That's S-C-H-O-L-Z.
27:08
Joining us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, AJ? I'm doing great, guys. Thanks so much for having me on. Really appreciate, uh, jumping on with you this morning.
27:16
Uh, let's for the, for the Vegas, well, thank you for coming. The, the Vegas Golden Knights fans last night had a heart attack, and then they end up winning.
27:24
[laughs] Uh, Minnesota looked like they had scored the, uh, go-ahead goal with just over a minute left, but by the tip of a skate were ruled offside.
27:33
What was interesting, it was the second chal- it was the, uh, it was the coach's challenge that did it. The initial challenge, uh, did not, uh, did not qualify, but the coach's challenge for offsides did.
27:45
That goal gets wiped away, and Vegas ends up winning it, uh, in overtime on a Brett Howden goal. Um, how you feeling about the Knights in this series? Can the Wild recover from something like that? Absolutely.
27:56
You know, I, I think they're, uh, looking good. That's... I, I'd have been down on Vegas if that had gone the other way.
28:04
Um, you know, credit to the coaching staff there in making that call because, you know, with the coach's- Yes... challenge, if they're wrong, now you're giving the Wild a, a power play right at the end of the game.
28:15
Like, that, that was a ballsy move to, to make that call. Um, you know, they've won back-to-back OT games now, the Knights have, and it, it looks like, you know, obviously they'll have to go back to Minnesota.
28:26
That'll be a challenging game six for them. But if I'm a, if I'm a Knights fan, I'm feeling good because worst case scenario, you have game seven back home, and I, I've been to a game there.
28:38
Uh, it, that is quite the arena. That's quite the atmosphere and, you know, I'd, I'd be feeling confident that that's our worst case scenario of having to play home in game seven.
28:47
Yeah, that, uh, back in Minnesota again tomorrow night where the, uh, Wild plus 142 to extend that series.
28:54
Uh, one more from last night before we get to your thoughts on tonight's games, which is, um, the Toronto Maple Leafs were up three to nothing in this Battle of Ontario against Ottawa. Now it's three to two.
29:05
Um, Senators minus 120 in game six tomorrow night as well, and the adjusted series price on this for the, uh, Sens is plus 334. Uh-oh. Uh, would you consider this plus 334 at all? 100%.
29:22
100% I'd be- I definitely would look at that. You know, you have to imagine Ottawa, they've got the momentum. It's, it's a real thing in hockey.
29:31
They're playing back at home in game six, so then you're getting game seven toss-up.
29:35
And while, you know, while I was just saying Vegas has to feel great playing at home in game seven, if Toronto, the team that's dropped the first round series for the last, you know, 10 years, whatever it is [laughs]
29:49
, um, you know, has to now go to game seven after being up three-nothing, that's not a confident group coming back. So, uh, I definitely, I like both those prices.
29:58
I like the minus 120, um, and I, I would seriously consider that, that plus 300-ish, whatever it was, um, for Ottawa as well.
30:06
That would be for a franchise that has not won a Stanley Cup since 1967, talking about the Leafs, of course. That would be the cruelest of all exits. [laughs] Oh my goodness. Yeah.
30:16
After having looked like they were just rolling here up three to nothing. Um- And that has happened a handful of times in the history of the, uh, of the NHL playoffs.
30:25
So it is still a rare occurrence, not quite as rare as in other sports, but still a very rare occurrence to come back from a three to nothing deficit. Tonight we have a trio of games, AJ.
30:33
I'm curious your thoughts on, uh, on a either of, or on any of these where the bets are. The Panthers look to close out the Lightning in Tampa. Uh, they're up three to one in the series. That game is a coin flip.
30:44
Caps look to close out the Canadiens in five. Uh, Caps are a minus 170 favorite. And then out west, the Blues and the Jets knotted up at two apiece.
30:52
The home-standing Jets tonight in game five, the President's Trophy winners, they are minus 172. Any thoughts on any of those? Yeah. For Washington, uh, I like them on the puck line.
31:05
You can get around plus 140, uh, on, on the puck line, and I think, you know, this is a good opportunity for them. One, you've got, they're playing at home. You've got Alexander Ovechkin.
31:17
Uh, two of their, their wins in this series have come by that two, at least a two-goal margin.
31:23
Um, and you've got Montreal, they're not gonna likely, it's not official yet, but likely aren't gonna have starting goal tender Samuel Montembeault available.
31:33
Jacob Dobbs has looked fine, um, but you know, he's a 23-year-old netminder going up against the Caps who are one of the best teams in the league in a elimination game.
31:44
Like, it, it just feels like a little bit too much for, for the youngster there. So I like Washington, uh, on the puck line there to get a little bit of value. I like Ovechkin to score in this one.
31:55
I think those two pair up really well. You can get Ovie, uh, anytime goal scorer about 110. Uh, single game parlay of those together would be, would be my play on that one.
32:06
Uh, and then over to, uh, in the Jets game, I'm looking at the goal-tending odds, uh, prop for that one. You can get, uh, Hellebuyck. Uh, I'm actually gonna take him under 21 and a half, uh, shots at, at plus 105.
32:22
Um, they have, when they've won their first two games, the last two have been a disaster for Winnipeg. No question about it. But w- the two games they won, they actually limited the shots that Hellebuyck had to face.
32:33
And so if they're gonna go back home to Winnipeg tonight, get a win in that game, uh, obviously the money line, uh, is giving up too much juice for me to take that one.
32:42
But Hellebuyck goal prop, I think under, if they can limit the amount of shots he faced, they should come away with a victory.
32:48
All right, AJ, before you go, we don't usually ask this of guests 'cause, uh, you know, we do betting shows.
32:53
We're al- we're often too cool for school to ask this, but w- what your friends would always wanna know is, who do you think's in the Stanley Cup finals at this point?
33:01
Yeah, I mean, I think for me, I, I've been on the Jets as my Stanley Cup pick. Um, yes, they lost those two. I'm not gonna give that one up. I, I still like them to make it there.
33:11
Um, and I thought this Florida-Tampa series was gonna be much more of a, of a battle, uh, but Florida has just looked really, really good.
33:20
Both those teams have two of the top three netminders, top four netminders in the league in Bobrovsky and Hellebuyck. Um, so I would go with Jets and, and Panthers in, in the final right now. All right. Mark them down.
33:32
Winnipeg, Florida, Stanley Cup Final. AJ, really appreciate it, man. Thanks so much. Yeah, anytime. AJ Schultz, everybody, from RotoWire joining us. May wins, most wins, Major League Baseball next.
33:52
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. That's sharpplays.com.
34:08
Check 'em out. We get tweets at Betting The Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Burner @burnerocchi, I like that, uh, Twitter name, burnerocchi, "Love how the show is evolving.
34:18
I don't know about you, but I definitely need more golf," uh, excuse me, "more gorilla talk-" [laughs]... "more, more underestimating the human race, and more deep-sea fishing. Wait, and Kelly has a pharmacist brother?
34:28
We need a separate segment on that alone." You, uh, you wanna, you wanna hear the funniest story about that actually? So I, I was, I was around my brother at Christmas time. I didn't know, I didn't know he was a doctor.
34:40
What? So he doesn't really talk about this, but my, my, my brother was s- he, he was sick a little bit in college while he was in college, so he, he missed a little bit of time. I didn't know he's a pharmacist.
34:50
I didn't know he was a doctor. So like, I like bro- I brought up how, I don't know, made fun of him basically for not being a doctor, and he was like, "Well, actually." Actually. It's quite an embarrassing moment for me.
35:00
Actually, producer number nine. [laughs] It was quite an embarrassing moment.
35:04
[laughs] Brian M., "The Circa all-in package includes a guest spot day two on a numbers game if Kelly's out with brown drinks your first night." [laughs] And Dan Groeschel, "Shaq's bit has grown tiresome to me.
35:15
At halftime last night, Jokic was three of nine shooting for 11 points, eight assists, and four rebounds, and his team was up eight. Shaq thought Jokic wasn't playing well.
35:23
I used to enjoy their show, but now it's unbearable." I still enjoy the show, but I will say this, Shaq goes to the four rings thing way too much. Every discussion now is four rings.
35:35
He's, yeah, I mean, he's, he's the, he is the weakest link of that show. He is the weakest link. They, they, they would be fine without him. Uh, okay, ladies and gentlemen, it's, uh, it's time. You excited, Kelly?
35:44
I'm very excited for this. Um, you don't have to answer that. I can see it in your thoughts. No, I, I, I, I am. I'm sorry. I'm, I'm te- Oh... I'm texting you Rob Moreno's, uh, gorilla research, which is really important.
35:54
We're gonna get to later. I'm about to do May most wins in Major League Baseball, and all these guys can think about is the gorilla dissertation. Just wanted to make sure you had- Coming up from Jason...
36:01
wanted to make sure you had important information ready, okay? I appreciate that very much. It's my job. Uh, once again, in case you missed it earlier, uh, we did this all last year.
36:08
It was the first time that Books ever did this to our knowledge was last year. I just happened to like, the day before the Major League Baseball season started, I just happened to like, "Well, I don't have much else.
36:16
There's no tennis today." Mm-hmm. Let me peruse, 'cause there's thousands of, not thousands, but hundreds of, uh, Major League Baseball markets available, and they had the most wins, and it was amazing.
36:24
Cleveland Guardians 65 to 1. It came down to April 30th, and Hunter Gattis Gave up a home run to John Singleton with two out and the one out away from winning 65 to one. Never mind. It, it hurts.
36:37
Uh, we ended up winning in July, though, on the, uh, Astros 25 to one and 17 to one respectfully, uh, respectively at two books. And we didn't think they were gonna continue.
36:45
We, we weren't sure they were gonna continue month after month. Yeah We weren't sure they were gonna continue.
36:48
It was such a, for us, it's such a great way to talk Major League Baseball because as opposed to dealing with a 162 game slate, and you can, you can drift off, you're always engaged with monthly bets, and there's a lot of opportunity here, I believe, from a betting perspective.
37:04
So, um, the first thing, by the way, March, April, once again, just to put this up real quick, the Mets, sadly, I bet them race to 10 and not most wins, uh, March, April. I bet the, uh, the Twins.
37:16
They didn't even come close. Mets 21 and nine, Dodgers 20 and 10 going into tonight. At Circa, the Mets have almost completely clinched.
37:24
Uh, there would have to be a 26 run, uh, turn of events tonight between the two games. The Mets would have to lose, and the Dodgers would have to win by that amount for it to go a different way at Circa.
37:34
So Mets are gonna be the Circa champions. Could be a dead heat at William Hill Caesars, but again, it, one combination of the, uh, you know, if the Mets win or the Dodgers lose, it's the Mets outright on everything.
37:44
Good on anyone who bet the Mets in March, April, and by the way, we just put up April on the top there because one of the books had just April. Mm-hmm. Um, okay. For May, DraftKings does not have this.
37:56
This is only at Circa. This is at William Hill Caesars. Circa and William Hill Caesars, the only two shops that are doing this. Um, remember the rules. At William Hill Caesars, if it's a tie at the end, it's a dead heat.
38:08
That's never fun for bettors 'cause it's not just a split. There's a little more math involved, and so you just always feel lesser than.
38:15
Kelly knows this from golf, um, in terms of, like, top 10s and top fives and that kind of stuff as well.
38:21
At Circa, where I prefer to do this, there is a tiebreaker involved, which is fewest losses, the first tiebreaker, and the second tiebreaker is run differential, as we just talked about with, uh, the Mets and the, the, uh, Dodgers in this past month.
38:36
First thing you do is you just take a look at what's the total number of games being played by each club, each of Major League Baseball's 30 clubs, in any given calendar month.
38:45
And so for the month of May, Kelly, we have a bunch of teams, most teams, more than half of the teams, play 28 total games in the month of May. I don't know if you know this, Kelly, 31 days in the month of May.
38:57
Are you aware of that? Yes. Okay. Uh, then there's, uh, eight teams that play 27 games. You see them listed on the screen, and three teams that play 26 games. The Yankees, Marlins, and Padres each play 26 games.
39:11
Now, 28, 27, and 26, to be honest with you, is not much of a difference based on what we've seen in the past.
39:18
There were months last year where it was, like, a five-game difference in terms of what teams were playing in a given month. So in May, it's only 28, 27, and 26.
39:26
So your instinct will probably, your, your knee-jerk instinct is, well, you wanna play the most games, right? 'Cause you want the most opportunities to win. But at Circa, where the tiebreaker, again, is fewest losses,
39:39
uh, not the worst thing in the world to play two fewer games.
39:43
So I was going through this, and I'll tell you, you know, there were, there were five teams that caught my, caught my eye, and I'll go through the four that I didn't take first.
39:53
And the four that I didn't take first, just to give you an idea of some of the candidates here, um, the Chicago Cubs, William Hill opened this yesterday or, or the, or the night before, so, like, 36 hours ago.
40:07
They opened the Cubs at 14 to one. They got bet down to plus 450. Circa opened them a little less than 24 hours ago yesterday. They've gone, they opened at four to one. They're at plus 425.
40:19
Uh, so they are the short shot in both of these. These are the, uh, Circa numbers that we are- Yes... showing on the screen. Cubs plus 425, the short shot.
40:28
Now, I looked at the Cubs, and they do have a lot of easy opponents, right? They play the Pirates. They play the Marlins. They play the White Sox. They play the Marlins again. They play the Rockies for goodness sakes.
40:37
But I couldn't play them not only because of their, of their short number, but some of the good teams they played are really good, right? They play the Mets three times. They play the Giants three times.
40:48
Uh, they play the Reds, by the way, who have a plus 43 run differential. They play them five times. They play the Brewers. So when you, i- if you do the exercise, and this is just one way to sort of quantify this,
40:59
if I did the current run differential one game before the end of April, the current run differential for every single team in the Major League Baseball standings and just added and subtracted, right?
41:10
Just did the aggregate of them, the Mets end up, excuse me, the Cubs, pardon me, end up playing a, you know, a schedule with an aggregate of minus 70 runs. Minus 70. Okay. That's not that great, by the way.
41:23
I was shocked at how short their odds were. Not that great. It's way too short for the Cubs. Now, if you bet them, great. I just did, the number's too short. Wasn't for me.
41:32
Um, the other w- the other couple I thought about, the Detroit Tigers was an interesting one for me. They went from 14 to one to nine to one at William Hill. They went from plus 1175 the other way to plus 1225 at Circa.
41:44
Those are the current prices. They play the Angels and the Rockies early, but then the rest of their schedule, there are no patsies the rest of the way. So while that was tempting, I didn't go with them.
41:54
Uh, a third team that was not tempting was the, uh, that was tempting, but I didn't go with, was the Giants. Giants from William Hill went from 20 to one to nine to one.
42:02
In Circa, they've gone from 12 to one to plus 1250, so a little tick the other way. Huh.
42:07
They do play the Rockies, the Athletics, sorry, Athletics, I didn't mean to keep you in this conversation, with the, with the Marlins also.
42:14
But, you know, the rest of the games they played, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Royals, Nats, Twins. I mean, it's a pesky schedule. That wasn't good enough for me either.
42:25
By the way, just to give you a contrast, I said the Mets' collective aggregate run differential of, of opponents minus 70.
42:32
The, uh, the Giants minus 335 The Tigers minus 510 because they play, uh, because they don't really play great teams, but they play a, a schedule of mediocrity.
42:44
The one, the, the runner-up for me was the Philadelphia Phillies.
42:47
Philadelphia Phillies who went from six to one back to 11 to one at William Hill and at Circa from 10 to one to plus 1050, so they're available at double digits. Aggregate run differential of opponents minus 530.
43:00
Phillies are, they, they do play the Pirates, the Rockies, and the Athletics in there, if you consider the Athletics in that group, which I'm not sure I do, but the rest of the schedule's pretty pesky.
43:09
And I wouldn't hate it if you bet the, the, uh, Phillies 'cause I do think they're an underperforming team, but I'm just not prepared to just say that they'll break out of it this quickly.
43:20
The team that I went with, the San Diego Padres.
43:24
The San Diego Padres, uh, who have gone from 16 to one to 14 to one at William Hill and at Circa from 25 to one, which is where I got them, to 10 to one, still double digits. Look at that schedule.
43:40
Three against the Pirates, three against the Rockies, three against the Angels, three against the Marlins, two more against the Pirates, plus three against Toronto.
43:50
The only teams with positive run differentials they play are the Atlanta Braves at plus two and then Seattle and the Yankees. It is the cakiest schedule you can possibly hope to have.
44:01
And by the way, they got back Luis Arias in their lineup yesterday, and Jackson Merrill, last year's Rookie of the Year, Brandon Lockridge, Jake Cronenworth, all expected to come back in early to mid-May as well.
44:14
That schedule has an aggregate of minus 536 opponents run differential when added and subtracted up. The San Diego Padres, MLB most wins in the month of May from a numbers game right here at VSiN.
44:31
Coming back with gorillas and more. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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