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Apr 3, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 3, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 3, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:11
VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all proudly brought to you by DraftKings. Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlan live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Glorious downtown Las Vegas.
0:23
Still to come this hour, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke. Um, you know what else we have to talk about, Kelly? What's that? 'Cause we're, we're talking so much, uh, Wembanyama at the outset.
0:34
We gotta talk about what maybe is the biggest betting thing in the NBA last night, the, uh, Faccenda injury reporting. Yeah. We'll have a chat about that. Some breaking news coming down right now. Uh-oh, what you got?
0:45
Uh, Stefon Diggs traded to the Houston Texans. Wow. Well. Stefon Diggs traded to the Houston Texans. It, it soured in Buffalo, did it not? Yeah, I mean, th- well, there was all that... I mean, what is it?
0:58
I think the past two years, right? It wasn't even just last year where it just weird stuff with him on and off the field. I mean, bo- both on and off the field. What'd they get for him, by the way? I don't know.
1:09
It's just coming down. He- Wow... uh, I'll be working on that. That'll get back to you. So C.J. Stroud, enjoy Stefon Diggs, for all you Houston Texans backers who like that.
1:19
Yeah, all Schefter's got right now, "For draft pick compensation," so more to follow. Draft pick compensation. Obviously we will ramp up the NFL draft talk as the month continues.
1:28
Uh, right now, though, always a pleasure during college basketball season to have, uh, the Circa Millions booby prize winner from NFL handicapping days gone by.
1:37
It's our friend Michael Montesano, who, uh, loves himself some college hoops, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. He is en route to Buffalo to take a flight to come here. How about that? For the Final Four.
1:49
How you doing, Michael? I'm doing great. I can't, I can't wait to get out there. All right. Before we get into your, uh, thoughts on the Final Four,
1:57
can you just give me a few minutes or even a few seconds, or however long you want to, on, on your thoughts on Victor Wembanyama and Defensive Player of the Year, sir?
2:07
Well, I'm trying not to get angry, as everyone else is. It seems like we're, we're at the point now where anger is setting in when we look at all the defensive metrics for both Gobert and, and Wemby.
2:19
I think last night just kind of, uh, put everything in perspective. I mean, what he did against Joker was just, was unbelievable. Now, I know Joker had a great night, too.
2:30
Um, but Wemby with nine blocks on the road, I think he's setting himself up for a, um, a nice little run the last five or six games.
2:39
I mean, I quickly went to the defensive metrics, the basketball reference for both the, uh, Timberwolves and the Spurs, and, you know, I, I love JVT, and I know he said Rudy Gobert is the anchor of that defense.
2:54
But they have four other anchors as well, when you look at the defensive metrics, and Wemby has nobody. And so, I mean, that has to take into some type of consideration.
3:05
The voters, well, we're at the point now where the voters just, they have to use some common sense.
3:09
Let's start using common sense when we look at everything, and if you use basic common sense with this, it's something we've never seen before.
3:18
You cannot go back to the old ways and say, "Ah, we're just gonna give it to, uh, the best defensive player on a top five team." This is something that, um, it's once in a lifetime possibly for a rookie.
3:30
Even though he is a rookie, his numbers are, are head and shoulders above Rudy Gobert, and I, again, I've nothing against Rudy Gobert.
3:37
He's a tremendous defensive player, but he has significant help with him [laughs] surrounding him, and Wemby has nobody.
3:44
[laughs] Any thoughts on, uh, Anthony Edwards getting one second place vote for MVP, which we are led to believe is Michael Wilbon's vote based on all of his comments?
3:56
Michael Wilbon, I love Michael Wilbon, I've followed him for years. If he votes for Anthony Edwards one or two, he should have that vote stripped from him immediately.
4:05
[laughs] Um, and that leads me to believe he might be voting for Gobert and not Wemby. He's not using any common sense. Yeah, me t- me too. I drew the line as well. I'm like, "Well- Oh, without a doubt, yeah.
4:15
[laughs] Without a doubt, he's voting... [laughs] He's a Gobert voter. When you start hearing stuff- Yeah... when you start hearing stuff like that, it's just like, "We're doomed. I think we're doomed." Ugh. All right.
4:24
Well, let's segue to college hoops. Um, obviously a Final Four with two spreads, and we just talked about it. It's two of the five biggest semifinal spreads. They go back, I shouldn't say of all time.
4:35
They go back all the way to 2003. Uh, it starts, it gets m- I guess it gets murkier, uh, prior to 2003, but those are two of the, the biggest five spreads, uh, since 2003 in semifinal games.
4:48
Where do you stand on both of these games? Do you feel like, and you are a guy who has a Crimson Tide future as well. Let's, uh, s- let's put that out. It's the Huskies by 12. Let's start with this game. Can 'Bama cover?
5:02
Can they win it outright? Y- yes and yes. And again, I'm not, I'm not trying to play a homer here 'cause I have tickets. I'm just trying to use, uh, talk from a, uh, an analytical point of view.
5:15
When you have three-point variance the way, uh, Alabama has, I mean, they could get extremely hot. We've seen it before, and we've also seen UConn in this tournament. I've gone back and looked at the numbers.
5:27
They have not shot the ball particularly well from three-point range.
5:30
I think the, the key defensive me- uh, the key offensive metric for Alabama that I don't know if anyone's talking about is, what are they gonna shoot from two-point range? 'Cause they like to get in the lane.
5:40
It's gonna be tough trying to score over Clingan, and they can do it.
5:45
I mean, with the exception of the Illinois game, every team in the tournament, I even went back to the Big East tournament, every team shot over 40% from two-point range.
5:53
And obviously if Alabama goes five for 33, they're not gonna win. If they hit their average, 10 or 11 from, from three, and they shoot 40% from two-point range, easier said than done, I understand all that-
6:06
This game will be close, and they might have a shot to pull it out at the end. Yeah, I, I, by the way, Nate Oats m- might be my favorite coach in the country at this point.
6:16
Like, I just think that he is- Oh, he's fa- he's fantastic He is fantastic. I think he's figured out some stuff that others haven't quite gotten to.
6:23
Um, his ability to, uh, recruit not just from high school, but also in the, in the portal has been awesome.
6:29
Uh, they're super likable, and it's going to be fascinating what, what this approach is to try to beat a Goliath. Again, a team that we talked about yesterday.
6:38
Like, if you just go through their run, UConn's I'm talking, since the Swe- I mean, for the whole couple tournaments, but since the Sweet 16 particularly from last year, again,
6:49
320 minutes of basketball in those eight tournament games. They have trailed for five minutes and 50 seconds of them, including just 23 this year. And they, you know, what are their four...
7:01
The first four games, they l- they have had margins of 39, 30, 32, and 31 at different points in those four respective games this year. So this is just gonna be fascinating to watch.
7:14
And then, of course, the, uh, the game that precedes that, which is just every bit as fascinating. Purdue sitting in at nine right now.
7:21
This is sort of, you know, ticked up and down a little bit, but it's nine in favor of the Boilermakers right now against NC State.
7:28
And it's, you know, the narrative that we're hearing from most is, well, you know, Zach Edey and boy, how is, how is NC State gonna defend that? How is Burns gonna stay out of foul trouble?
7:38
I was saying this yesterday, I, I kind of believe it's gonna go the other way, and I feel like I'm on an island with this.
7:44
Mike Samage kind of agreed with me yesterday, which is I almost feel like the refs, the officials are completely aware of this, right?
7:50
And are going to bend over backwards after the 33 to 13 disparity in free throw attempts in the Elite Eight for Purdue. Um, their advantage, I should say, 33 to 13 free throw attempts.
8:01
So they're gonna bend over backwards the other way. How do you see this? I, yeah, I've thought about that a lot the last couple days as well. I haven't made a play on this, um, game in, um...
8:11
I'm gonna look at it a little bit more, but I mean, refs are human. They hear what's going on in the media and what's being said.
8:17
I think, you know, whoever's reffing the game, they will go back and watch the last couple games and see, okay, well, that could have been a foul. Well, that, I don't know, if he does that, that could have been a foul.
8:26
I mean, you know, Edey got away with, you know, e- anything and everything in those, in the last few games. So it's going to be very interesting. Will he get in foul trouble, you know, right off the bat? I don't know.
8:40
But I do think he will get called for some calls that he hasn't been called for, um, in the last few games. And the key for NC State is, are they going to make their, I mean, for some guys it always goes down.
8:51
Can you make your out- your, your three-point shot? How are they gonna do from three-point range?
8:55
They have guards that can play, and they have some really, really underrated gritty guards, and you need great guard play in the tournament to win. I think we've talked about this in the last time I was on.
9:06
And if, if the guards can come to play, all the talk is about Burns, and I understand that he's a great player. But the guards need to come to play, uh, again, uh, for North Carolina State to have a shot.
9:17
And I think they could kind of keep it close, you know, the first half.
9:20
The question is when Purdue, if Purdue makes a little run, because we've seen the runs that Purdue has made the last few games, can they withstand those runs and, and, and, and get back into it?
9:31
Yeah, I just want to say that thing about the guards again because I've had, you know, Adam Stanko for years on this show was saying this. He's certainly not the only one.
9:39
But one of the more tried and true, um, you know, NCAA March Madness handicapping tenets is who's got the best guards? And if you look at the Cooney Award finalists, three of the five are in the Final Four, right?
9:52
Mark Sears from Bama- Yeah... Braden Smith from Purdue, Tristan Newton from UConn. And the other two, by the way, they were Jamal Shed who got hurt, right? And so Houston didn't get there largely because of that.
10:00
And Tyler Kolac from Marquette who have, obviously they had a deep run as well. So it's, it's about as, you know, I have a formula, but that's about as good a formula as, as there is.
10:09
So bottom line these four, man, are you taking the dog plus the points in these? What are you doing? I'm not gonna take Alabama. There's actually a, a... I'm looking at the first half of, uh, the NC State Purdue game.
10:23
I, I really, I think I like that under the total. They're playing in a stadium, different sight lines. NC State likes to kind of control the tempo.
10:31
They're not a tremendous, uh, outside shooting team even though they do need to shoot well to be successful. Purdue's got a top, top 20 defense.
10:39
Um, you know, if you look at that first half, I think some jitters from both sides in a, in a big stadium like that. It's not easy shooting in those stadiums.
10:47
Um, you know, I think that both, you know, all the teams will eventually get used to it in the second half. But the first half, I, I, I like that under, um, um, Purdue and N- North Carolina State.
10:57
But as far as the games go, um, I'm gonna have to look at it a little bit more when I get in town. Okay. Uh, you know, but Alabama, I, I, I go back to the 1999 Duke team. They were the one of...
11:08
They were probably the best team in the Ken Pomeroy if you, in adj- in adjusted efficiency margining, uh, margin, and they lost. So it gives me some hope, I think, for [laughs], for Alabama to get the job done.
11:19
All right, we gotta run, Michael. Uh, safe travels. But last thing, tomorrow night, NIT final, Seton Hall three and a half point dogs against the Sycamores of Indiana State. Any thoughts in five seconds?
11:30
I'm going Seton Hall. The better conference. Oh, wow. They're just, you know, more tougher defensively.
11:35
I know they got the home crowd, Indiana State, but I think Seton Hall, they got robbed from getting in the NCAA tournament. You know, they want, and so did Indiana State. Okay.
11:43
But I just think they're a little bit tougher defensively. Thank you, Michael. Safe travels. We'll see you here. All right. All right, guys. Take care. Little N- little NFL on the other side next.
11:57
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, check out vsin.com. Just a quick glance once again, just looking at the, uh, top here. Valero Texas Open odds, picks, and predictions.
12:09
We'll talk a little Valero Texas Open later on the show. Yeah, we will. Masters primer out today as well. Masters primer in there. Um-
12:18
Live Miami best bets and golf odds from Wes Reynolds, and of course, just a plethora of NCAA tournament stuff. Also, that Michael Lombardi piece on, uh, Now or Never for Trevor, all at vsin.com.
12:28
Check it out, the new vsin.com. Check it out today. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Um, so we mentioned the Stefon Diggs trade, uh, a little before, uh, we had, uh, Montesano on.
12:39
So Stefon Diggs goes from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans. What were the terms of the deal? Now we have a little more detail on this. Yeah.
12:47
So it's, it's basically Diggs, a fifth and a sixth to Houston for a second, I believe, is what it was. A second in 2025. Correct. Correct. Yeah. Thank you. Next year, second, uh, yeah. Um, so C.J.
12:59
Stroud now has at his disposal not only Stefon Diggs, but of course, you know, talking from, uh, from days gone by, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. So that's quite a nice little receiving corps now for C.J. Stroud.
13:14
Sure is, yeah. On the other hand, or if you're Buffalo, you get out from under his contract, Stefon Diggs' contract, which I think they're probably thrilled about in Buffalo at this point.
13:25
But if you look at their current roster- Yeah... and we're what? April 3rd, we have a draft in front of us, and obviously there's still time to pick up other randos. But if you look at their,
13:37
just their depth chart at wide receiver. Curtis Samuel, welcome to number one. [laughs] Curtis Samuel becomes your, your- Yeah... wide out, your, your wide receiver one. Uh, yeah. Who, who else we got?
13:50
Curtis Samuel, former- Khalil, Khalil Shakir... former Panther, former Skin. Mack Hollins, of course, yeah. Khalil Shakir, and, and Khalil Shakir is probably your number two. But I mean, the rest of them are what?
13:59
Shorter and Hollins and Hamler and those kind of guys. Yeah. They gotta, they gotta make some additions, w- we'll say. Yeah, they got to. I think they'll be targeting that in the draft- They have to...
14:08
where there's, uh, supposed to be about 20 first-round wide receivers. Of course, they have two great, uh, tight ends in, uh, Dalton, uh, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox as well, but still at wide out, a little thin now.
14:20
Yeah. Whereas Houston is robust. I still like the under on Houston, though, based on the season opening. Yeah. Yeah. I'm, I'm also like, this is... You know I'm a big Josh Allen guy. I, I don't...
14:30
This whole Diggs thing, whatever's been going on there the past year or two years now, I am wo- I'm wondering if they might be better moving on from him. Like, it is- It just, Diggs just always upset on the sidelines.
14:41
Yeah. Just always angry about something. And then, and there were, what, there were games late in the year where they, they, they just... He, he wasn't really a factor.
14:48
Like, he really- He, he was very ineffective this past season late. I mean, and the drop. The drop, ugh, on that Josh Allen like 70-yard bomb right on the dot. Oh, yeah. And just boop, c- couldn't hold it in.
15:00
Could've, could've been one of the greatest plays [laughs] we've ever seen in football, and he hauls that in the... Can't catch it. Draft props are not robust quite yet.
15:09
Um, but we do have some interesting markets, specifically about specific players to specific teams. Yeah. Which team will draft J.J. McCarthy? This is available at DraftKings. This got steamed big time yesterday.
15:23
Yeah, yesterday. Vikings are the short shot at plus 105, followed by the Giants at plus 275. The Commodores are three to one. Patriots plus 350, and then Broncos are plus 550.
15:35
Everybody else, [clears throat] and by everybody else, I mean only one listed here, the Raiders, 30. Yeah. No, no, everybody else. Everybody else. Yeah. 35 to one or longer, yeah. [laughs] Okay. The Vikings got steamed.
15:45
Yeah.
15:45
I, I mean, I, I don't know about you, but I, I have seen in a few, few of the mocks I've been kind of reading up on recently that there's, uh, seems to be a strong belief the Vikings are gonna trade up into that top 10, um, a- and take McCarthy.
15:56
Um, and, and the most popular one I've heard I f- is, I feel like is the Chargers', uh, spot at number, what, number five they would trade into to grab him. Um- Would they have to?
16:06
The Chargers might not, wouldn't have to trade in to grab him at all. They could just sit at five and grab him probably, unless someone's bonus, you know, doing a smoke screen thing.
16:14
Here's the thing, Vikings currently have the 11th pick, right? Mm-hmm. Does J.J. McCarthy fall to 11? F- wow, I can't believe I'm saying fall to 11. [laughs] No, I know. I know. It's crazy.
16:24
But like that's the way that it's being talked about now. He would have to fall to 11. So yeah, that- The Chargers are at five. Right. So that's what I'm saying. The Vikings, I think the, the...
16:32
What people are thinking is the Vikings need to trade up for, to that spot- I see... to get a- get ahead of the Giants. Gotcha. 'Cause the Giants might take him.
16:40
Chargers were, and the Chargers were not listed there because they have Justin Herbert on that J.J. McCarthy list. As fond of J.J.
16:46
McCarthy as Jim Harbaugh is, I would think that Jim Harbaugh is g- I mean, to me, the most, the most connected team to a specific player to me is the Chargers and Joe Alt.
17:01
I think the, I think it's clear they're going offensive lineman. So I, that to me is the, is the, is the biggest thing.
17:07
Now, it should be, it should be mentioned that what we're, we were here a week ago- Man, I hope you're wrong 'cause I've got, [laughs] I've got a lot... That's where I've got Nabers going.
17:16
[laughs] You, oh, you have them drafting Nabers. Well, that could be. But I agree with you. I, I think- That could be... I think one of tho- one of those positions is where they're gonna end.
17:22
I'm just saying if you're going to d- if you're going to dive into one of these markets, and you made me do one of them right now, that would be mine. The, the J.J. McCarthy thing, again, all this is lying season, right?
17:32
Mm-hmm. 'Cause a week ago, wasn't even a week ago, remember we were all that steam on McCarthy to go number two- Yep... to Washington? Um, so that quickly has died down a little bit. Yep.
17:43
Um, you know who had a pretty- I mean, it ha- it has and it hasn't, right? I think the, the overall- Yeah...
17:47
sentiment that he's still way, gonna go way sooner than we would have thought, right, a month ago seems to be...
17:55
I mean, at this point it kind of, it kind of seems like it's gonna happen from everything [laughs] we're hearing. You know what's the best line about J.J.
18:00
McCarthy going second is, and I don't quote him often on the show, is Bomani Jones. Mm. Bomani Jones has a line about that he goes, about the buzz of J.J. McCarthy going second to Washington.
18:10
He goes, "Here's how I know J.J. McCarthy is not going second to Washington." He goes, "Because if J.J. McCarthy was going second to Washington, J.J. McCarthy would be going first."
18:20
And his point there is that if you are that enamored [clears throat] by a guy, [clears throat] pardon me, who won a national championship, th- y- your narrative for loving J.J.
18:29
McCarthy is he won a national championship, he made all the right decisions when he w- and when he was asked to make plays, he made all the right plays, right?
18:36
So it's not what was on the field, but it was he, he played as great as you can for what he was asked to do at the right times, and they won a title. Right. And he's, and so I understand his point.
18:47
His point is if you buy into that so much as he is worthy of the number two pick, well, then why isn't he the number one pick either? That's his, his take on that.
18:56
And so there is a little kernel of wisdom in that where it's like, yeah, no, I agree with that. He's, he's not gonna be one or two is my point. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I, and I get that. It is, it is interesting.
19:05
Um- So that's why the Vikings and other teams have come to favor. Yeah, 'cause you've got special playmakers at the top, right? Yeah. W- w- with what we would consider Qu- uh, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.
19:13
Um- The Bo Nix thing is interesting because- This one, yeah, I, this one is just as interesting to me... 'cause the Broncos are really the only team
19:22
that falls under the category of has shown tremendous interest in Bo Nix. Like to a minus 150 bet. To minus 150. [laughs] Wow. Vikings four to one, Raiders five to one, Giants seven to one.
19:35
But you, you, you get to, you know, if you hadn't had a feel for who's gonna draft a quarterback or who, who covets a quarterback, it's the usual suspects towards the top of these. Vikings, Raiders, Giants. Right. Yeah.
19:45
Yeah.
19:45
Well, yes, all the, which, and all the t- y- you know, quarterback needy teams make sense, but, like, I don't know, for this one to manifest, like, there's, I don't know, there's a lot of different things [laughs] that's gotta go on for Denver to get in a position to get him.
19:59
Like- Denver's at 12 currently. Yeah. Like, I, I mean, is it, is it, I, I don't know. Like, are they- Wait, but Denver doesn't have to trade up for Bo Nix. No, no, I'm not necessarily saying that. Yeah.
20:06
But you still gotta wait for 11 picks to come off the board, and then we're, everybody's assu- There's no other trades that happen, nothing else. Yeah. Where this guy's just gonna fall to him at 12?
20:15
I'm just not running to play [laughs] minus 150- I mean, he would-... for something like that... he would be, he would be the fifth quarterback selected at 12- Yeah...
20:25
if they got him at 12, assuming Michael Penix wouldn't, you know, go before that. So [laughs] it's just like, yeah, on the one hand, I hear what you're saying.
20:32
On the other hand, really, like, the five are gonna be picked before 12? It's insane. I know, it's insane. The, uh... I'm, I'm really wish I would've bet that, uh, [laughs] over four and a half heavier than I did.
20:44
[laughs] Over four and a half on, on, oh, quarterbacks? Yeah. Yeah.
20:46
'Cause when those markets opened, I, I bet 'em both in town just to pick up some free money 'cause it was over f- over four and a half at even money, and then under four and a half in another shop here at plus 115.
20:56
But that don't... Like, there's five. Five are going. Of all the draft wisdom we have imparted, and I'm sure it's not just us over the years, the single most just consistently right one is teams justifiably, right?
21:13
They go crazy for quarterbacks. Yeah. Quarterback needy teams go crazy for quarterbacks. They go Coco for, uh, what's that? Cuckoo for Coco. What is it? Coco.
21:20
Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs for quarterbacks in the first round- There you go... because what's the Chris Collinsworth line? Most important position in football is quarterback.
21:28
Second most important position is backup quarterback. Like, you're nothing without a quarterback. You're nothing. And if you don't have it, you are just a different category. Mm-hmm.
21:38
And so it, it's justifiable, and they prey. Now, the, the talent assessment of this is the other side of it, which is that is the most inexact science there is. So on the one hand, you're justified going after it.
21:48
On the other hand, there is rarely any s- like, the success rate of actually picking the right guy is super low.
21:56
And as our buddy Matt Brown has said, which I think is accurate, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow specifically in modern times, and I went through. Remember, I went draft by draft since that draft.
22:08
Nobody has drafted well with the exception of Tr- Yeah... you know, Trevor Lawrence was the first pick in the draft. He's the only quarterback since Burrow and Herbert were drafted that has done anything in this league.
22:19
[upbeat music] So it's the most inexact science there is. And even that. [laughs] And even with that- Right... they're still gonna go crazy drafting these guys. So I don't know. I, I don't have any thoughts.
22:28
Like, I don't, I wouldn't recommend a bet on either of these at this point. I would recommend not betting, uh, the, the favorites in both of these markets right now.
22:38
Yeah, I wouldn't play minus 150 on the Broncos, that's for sure. We'll come back. The injury reporting in the NBA and what to do with the Sixers specifically beyond that. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. For a limited time, we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits- Splits... for free. Just sign up on vsin.com/splits.
23:02
The VSiN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in all the action, find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money does not match the public opinion.
23:12
You can check out not just today's action, but future events as well. Take advantage of this limited time offer. Visit vsin.com/splits now to claim your free two-week access to VSiN's betting splits.
23:22
Don't strike out on potential winnings. Visit vsin.com/splits and start making smarter baseball bets today. It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets at Beating The Book. This is from B2B's Bets.
23:34
He said, uh, "Steve Fezzik has to use the fine money to get down on, [laughs] on," oh, he said, "on minus 3500 basketball plays. Just kidding, kinda," he said.
23:42
Talking about where, uh, Fezzik does with our, um, with the pass post fines. Um, Mr. Postman619, "I'm with Will. I have the Pirates over 74 and a half wins, and yes, to make the playoffs plus 450.
23:54
Great five and O start for the Buccos." Jeff Levine, "Eyeball opinion, Kansas City Royals much improved. Pitching, contact speed, young superstar.
24:02
Recommend finding, uh, over wins 74 right now with sprinkle on division nine to one where there is no clear standout." Okay. Tom Collins about the Bills. He's saying what we were saying.
24:13
He said, "The Bills are eating, like, 30 million in dead cap to make this happen, and now their number one receiver is Khalil Shakir. Their best pick is number 28 overall." Uh, Jason H.
24:22
Lemon: "Is it against VSiN policy for producers to play Sigma Derby live on air? Asking for Kelly." [laughs] Is it Jason who's always asking that? Is it- I think so... someone never wants me to play Sigma Derby on air.
24:32
Let's watch- Do it one day... watch you go crazy. Yeah. Watch you get excited. People like an excited Kelly Bibble. We'll do it on a summer, uh, summer Friday. [laughs] That's right.
24:41
When we're lacking, uh, lacking content for a day. [laughs] Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California.
24:47
You can follow him on Twitter at Spreadapedia, and he comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. It's Jason Weingart. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good.
24:55
I feel like, uh, playing Sigma Derby on air would be encouraged. [laughs] Not, you know- Yeah, as a promotional tool for the day, you mean? Yeah. No. I mean, just in general.
25:08
Like, I, I, I would, I, I think you should be playing, uh, you know? Yeah. Well- We call it Sigma Derby on air.
25:15
Well, the way to do that then would be is to be move, move this whole operation here over to that table, but then we'd have to box out, like, a bunch of people that wanna play it. That'd probably be a problem.
25:25
[laughs] Yeah. That would be a problem. We could definitely set up over there. You kidding me? [laughs] Hey, Jason. So we're just going through those tweets right there.
25:31
Somebody would lo- You know, we have one guy who loved the, the Royals, one guy who loved the Pirates there. What's been your, uh, very quick first week of baseball observations that might be, uh... How can I put this?
25:43
I said this to Borscht earlier. Something that at least you've taken note of and you're like, "Maybe I should keep an eye on this." Okay. You want one? Um, the Marlins.
25:53
I was so anti-Marlin [laughs] last year, and I would just come on and say the meanest things about them.
25:59
[laughs] And they would find the, the dumbest ways to win, and I forget what their record was in ru- what one-run games last year, but it was astronomically, uh, good, and it, it ended up costing me a lot of money.
26:12
And now they're 0 and 5. They already had a team meeting. Um, you know- I love- Just doesn't look like- I love the team meetings, yes, this early. [laughs] How many we had in baseball? I love, I love...
26:22
Two at least in the first week, which is, which is abnormally high. Marlins and A's. Yeah. [laughs] Uh, no. The, the Angels had one too after the second game of the season. Oh, right. The Angels.
26:32
So at least- Not the A's. I'm sorry. Yeah. The Angels. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but yeah, the Marlins, just, just huge disappointment.
26:39
By the way, to answer your question, so last year the Marlins were, uh, 33 and 14 in one-run games. 33 and 14. Wow. 7 and 3 in extra innings. Yeah.
26:55
And so managed to win 84 games when their pythag should have been 74. We talked about that. Yeah. It was a- Yeah... that was a bummer last year.
27:04
And of course, this year I didn't bet the under and, and it, it's, uh, you know, can't really take anything away at five games, but, but looks good through five games. [laughs] That's right. It sure does.
27:15
Um, Marlins currently, uh, the old 0-fer right now to start the season at 0 and 6, uh, with the minus 19 run differential. Um, any, have you, have you added any awards?
27:26
I, I wouldn't ask this of anybody else through five games or six games of a season, but of you, I will. Have you added anything? Well, can we talk about the, uh, the basketball for a minute? Oh, please. The NBA?
27:38
Yes, absolutely. Um, so I had two futures bets that I made before the NBA season, and then I promptly forgot about them. Well, only forgot about one of them, and then just really haven't paid attention.
27:52
Um, one of them is the Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year, which does not sound like it's going to get there. But the other one [laughs] is, uh, Naz Reid, Sixth Man of the Year. Whoa. Man.
28:04
Um, I was looking, I was looking at this a couple days ago. I, I showed Preston, um, who also has the bet. I say, "Hey, look. Uh, we're gonna get second place in Wembanyama and, uh, Naz Reid."
28:19
Uh, Malik Monk's like minus 1,100 Reid's the second favorite. Then I look the next day, and all of a sudden the odds have dropped significantly. I have no idea what happens. Turns out Malik Monk's hurt. Yes.
28:30
Um, wanted to get your guys' opinion. What do you think's going on there? Am I, am I all of a sudden live with my, uh, my Malik, or my, n- excuse me, my, uh, Naz Reid ticket? Oh, you're live all right.
28:40
I think you're very live, Jason. What, what number do you guys have on that? 50. Oh, man. I'm ac- I'm actually surprised it's not longer. Wow. Wow. That, that's a great ticket.
28:48
I mean, I, I, I think Naz Reid might end up winning this award. I don't think it's gonna be Malik Monk. I, I'll say that right now. I don't, I do not think it's gonna be Malik Monk.
28:57
No, 'cause it's enough games still to go. I, I know it doesn't sound like a lot, but it's still a, it's still 10% of the season, right? And we broke it down yesterday.
29:04
There's not that big of an edge between, like, four, these- Right... top four guys and their stats. The only, the only thing you have, and I do disagree with JVT.
29:12
Uh, JVT was on a little earlier, and he was talking about how, you know, Reid as a starter, that that should not... How...
29:21
I, I'm paraphrasing, but he was basically saying that he should get credit for what he does as a starter too. Yeah. Um, I don't know that I view it that way. So that, that to me is the answer.
29:31
Jason, you, yes, you're live, but I think the, the p- the problem, or really the, the sort of the fly in the ointment is how many of the voters will now say... 'Cause he's starting a lot of games.
29:42
How many of those voters will be like, "Well, yeah. Well, that's great, but those aren't sixth man stats, and so I can't vote for him because of that"?
29:50
And I think there will be some voters who will be on the JVT side, which is, "Eh, it doesn't matter. He's still, he's still played enough at sixth man, so I'm still gonna vote for him." And I'll count those. Yeah.
30:00
So I think that's, that's the rub. I, I can see that. I mean, I think stepping in and starting when your team needs you should still be counted, you know, as a, a sixth man sort of role. But again, I'm not a voter.
30:11
I didn't pay attention to this any of the year.
30:14
Um, the only thing I could say, or the only thing I can add is I think historically, and I'd have to actually look this up, but it works for, uh, uh- All, all sort of awards.
30:26
Usually you don't win awards when you spend the last 10% of the season injured. That's right. Um- Yeah... O- Ohtani last year was a bit of an exception. Um,
30:36
but yeah, I, I, I don't, I, I think being hurt really hurts Monk and, and Reid gets the last opportunity to kind of make a statement, so I'm, I'm pretty excited about that all of a sudden.
30:45
I also don't think your Wembanyama is dead either. I'm just gonna say it. I don't think it's dead. Uh, I do. I don't. I do. I mean, he's still, like, 12 to 1.
30:53
I mean, you could bet so much on this if, if you think it's wrong. Like- I, I think I will... I'm not saying- I think I will. I, I- I, I- Here's the thing, 'cause we don't- I, I want it. I want it to win. No, I know.
31:03
We all do. But I, I guess what I'm saying is there has never, uh, l- none of these award mar- or award markets in any sport are a true reflection of what is actually at play, for all we know, right?
31:15
'Cause we don't know what these guys are thinking. The most, the most indication we have is, like, a straw poll that was done on, uh, MVP in the NBA this morning.
31:21
We have some sense of what some folks might be thinking about an award. But generally speaking, we don't really know how accurate that Gobert, Wembanyama difference is, right? It's probably way more narrow.
31:36
Doesn't mean that I think Wembanyama's the favorite. I don't, right? But 12? The fact that tw- there were some numbers as the season approached, as the beginning of the season approached.
31:45
I know some people have, like, 50 to 1 on it, whatever. But I think right before the season, it wasn't that much longer than it is now, which is an insane thing to think about.
31:55
That he's now played 60 basketball games at the height of defensive prowess, and he's barely moved in the market. It's insane. What are we doing? I don't know.
32:06
I think he has a ch- I think, I think cooler heads are about to prev- Uh, Brian Windhorst, just on a podcast this morning, he talked about it. He's gonna vote for Wembanyama now. What is March of the Penguins, Kelly?
32:17
<< And nobody knows, but one day, one penguin moves one foot. >> [laughs] Sorry. << Best follow him and migrate across Antarctica. >> That was my Morgan Freeman, Kelly. Uh, Jason. Sorry about that.
32:28
Is Jason still with us? I'm sorry. Jason, are you there? I'm right here. Oh. I'm right here. All right. Any baseball plays? I got a minute left. Any baseball plays today? Not much today.
32:38
I'm still kind of, you know, uh, waiting around. I haven't, haven't really bet much side-wise. Uh, when I do bet, I'm just kinda doing some square stuff, like betting against the A's 'cause they're the A's.
32:49
Uh, real embarrassing stuff with Oakland. I just can't, can't believe it. But, uh, I guess just 'cause we're running out of time, uh, can we talk about Juan Soto real quick? Go quick, yeah.
32:58
It, it took, like, a week for the market to, to sort of coalesce that Juan Soto is the best player in the NL. Or, or sorry, the, the AL.
33:07
Um, I honestly didn't know if he's gonna give up that spot at the top of the MVP market all year in the American League. He's, he's really good. I just wanted to say how much I love Juan Soto. Okay. There you go.
33:17
Jason and I had him at 100 to 1 a couple years back, and he finished in second to Bryce Harper. That one hurt. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. Jason Weingarten, everybody, from under a cloud of smoke.
33:30
[laughs] The, the connection was getting shakier as that one went on. [laughs] Yeah. Maybe it's time to get out. All right. We got tennis, golf, and Embiid in the injury report next.
33:39
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. DraftKings has a great hookup right now. Uh, exclusive offer for new DraftKings customers.
33:57
You earn a $500 bonus bet for every $1,000 you wager. Nothing wrong with that right there. You can earn up to $2,500 worth of bonus bets in your first three days on DraftKings. Don't wait.
34:09
Download the app now and use code ANG when you sign up. That's code ANG, and earn a $500 bonus bet for every $1,000 you wager now. I don't do it for this one, Gil. I know you don't. I know you don't.
34:22
Like, like the NBA awards- I know you don't... there are rules to these things. I know. Except I don't think we're reading the other one as much, so I wanted to, like, give you an in on this one. Yeah, I think it's gone.
34:30
[laughs] I think it's gone. So we're gonna have to, have to have Kelly, uh, just chime in on another one. Um, okay, let's get to a few things here real quick before the end of the show. One, tennis.
34:39
Um, vsin.com/picks for all subscribers. Every host, every guest on this network, every sport, every single one of their picks gets put on vsin.com/, uh, vsin.com, pardon me, vsin.com/picks. Gotta be a subscriber.
34:55
The reason I bring that up is because my one tennis play of the day, I'm on Taylor Townsend. Uh, Taylor Townsend in Charleston, South Carolina, the Charleston Open. Again, on Har-Tru,
35:06
a hybrid surface, which is a nice way for the ladies to segue from hard courts to the slow red clay of Europe, which is coming up.
35:15
Har-Tru, which I played on multiple times in Florida with, uh, Deborah Song Fashion Stylists back in February. Do they look like clay? No, it's like a green-gray. Okay. You- So it's, it's not granular. It is granular.
35:29
Oh, it is granular. Yeah. Oh, okay. But it's not, it's, it's, it's not like clay clay. Gotcha, okay. You know what I'm saying? It, it's, it's not bad. 'Cause if, I feel like Florida's got a lot of clay courts.
35:37
That's what I'm saying. Oh, no, no, their Har-Tru is all over the state of Florida. Okay, okay. Yeah, the state of Florida is overrun by Har-Tru. Again, it comes from a quarry.
35:43
The material comes from a quarry in Charlottesville, Virginia. And most, and a lot of the southeast of this country has Har-Tru courts.
35:50
Charleston, where they're playing today, I, I got Taylor Townsend last night at vsin.com/picks. Here was the point of all this, bringing that up. Uh, [laughs] sorry about the, sorry about the whole Har-Tru sidebar.
35:59
Are, are you kidding? I'm about to Google who owns this quarry. Oh. I wanna buy in on this quarry. Kelly, you need to own a quarry. You're just out there making tennis courts?
36:06
Like, wh- wh- wh- You sh- Like, it's a monopoly on one type of tennis courts. Start a quarry. I don't know how, how much that takes. [laughs] Start a quarry.
36:13
You gotta dig pretty aggressively, and then come up with a surface. [laughs] And then call up the ATP and the WTA, and they go, "You should play on this quarry surface." I got a new surface for you.
36:22
[laughs] That's right. Kelly hardcore, okay? [laughs] All right. So Taylor Townsend was at plus 126 last night. When I gave it out at visa.com/picks, she is now just plus 105 against Ekaterina Alexandrova.
36:37
The question becomes would I play it at plus 105, and the answer is that's teetering. I'm not gonna tell you not to, but it sort of, like, breaks the rules a little bit, if you know what I mean.
36:46
So Taylor Townsend was the play at plus 126. I don't know that I would've necessarily recommended her at plus 105. I might have. It's, like, right on the edge.
36:57
Um, and I'd love to update you our, about our play yesterday, Kelly, on, uh, Federico Correa in, uh, over there in, uh, Estoril, which is in Portugal, but it still hasn't resumed. They played three games.
37:13
We're down a break. Still hasn't resumed, so I don't have any result on that. What happened? Just, just, just inclement weather. Oh, weather, okay. Yeah, yeah.
37:20
[laughs] I thought there was, like, lightning, I thought it was darkness or something. Sorry, but I'm trying to look up this Quarry right now- That's okay... 'cause it's really- Okay. Well, you look up the Quarry.
37:27
Uh, yesterday, uh, Joel Embiid ended up playing for the Sixers.
37:31
By the way, he had himself, with all the Wembanyama talk, he had himself a nice little stat line in the Sixers win over the, uh, Thunder, though, uh, SGA did not play for the Thunder. No Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
37:41
No Jalen Williams. No relation. No Tyrese Maxey. Yeah. Embiid, 25, 6 and 7 in his return. Also had three steals, six turnovers, it should be mentioned.
37:51
But, uh, you know, the injury report was, you know, at first he was like, "Well, he's not playing at all," you know? "He's not gonna play." Then all of a sudden he was playing. And so, uh, there you go.
38:01
NBA handicappers enjoy that kind of life. Yep. What do you do with the Sixers right now in terms of any post-season thoughts? Because they are two losses, in, in the loss column, they're two behind the top six.
38:17
There's no threat of them falling to 9 or 10. So they're two... And one of the teams that they're two losses behind, you'd have to overcome both. Is it the Heat and the Pacers, I believe? Yeah, Heat and Pacers.
38:27
Play the Heat on Thursday. They play the Heat tomorrow- Yeah, tomorrow... in Miami, which w- has a huge effect on that because if Miami wins that, you can k- Katie bar the door of them getting in the top six.
38:36
So then they are going to be in the play-in, 7-8 play-in. For them not to get into the playoffs, it would require them losing two in a row. Yeah. They would only have to win one of two games.
38:45
It's very fascinating to me right now because that is a, if you believe, this is the o- this is the only way I would bet this.
38:53
But I do think, I mean, b- let's not forget what Joel Embiid did at the beginning of the season. He was the MVP without a doubt, number one with a bullet. Forget everybody else we're even talking about right now.
39:05
That's how good of a season he was having. I mean, Gil, if they, this is, this is where, th- this is again, I love the play-in tournament, right? Me too.
39:13
Because these questions arise, and it is, I think if you, if you could tell me for sure they would grab that six seed, I'd be in on the S- on the Sixers right now, for sure.
39:22
There's not that much competition in the Eastern Conference. The Boston Celtics are amazing. We haven't talked about the Boston Celtics enough.
39:29
You just go, like, uh, yeah, some of the simple rating systems over t- uh, over time, Gil, where you take, like, record versus strength of schedule and net rating, what you've done in the season.
39:37
The Boston Celtics are having, like, a top five season in the h- in the history of the NBA right now. And we, nobody even really talks about it. Now, do I think they're that good? Yes, I think they're that good.
39:48
But how many other true contenders are there? We've seen the problems with the Milwaukee Bucks. There's no reason why, why the Sixers couldn't win the Eastern Conference if you get a healthy Embiid, to me.
39:59
So if you believe he's gonna be healthy, and they can grab that six seed, I w- I mean, I would be, I would be hammering these bets right now.
40:06
I'm just not there because I think if you get into a play-in situation, we already know that's i- immediately dicey, right? You could l- you could lose one game, possibly. They're probably not gonna do that.
40:16
There'll be seven or eights, so you're gonna have to lose twice to get bounced. But still, you lose twice, you're out of it completely.
40:22
And if you advance from there, you're playing the Bucks or, or the Celtics in round one, and haven't really given Embiid a whole lot of time to get healthy. So it's really, really interesting.
40:33
I think it's a really interesting betting topic right now because it is, I wouldn't hate you if you wanted to go out there and take a 13, 14 to 1 on them to win the Eastern Conference, and whatever to win the NBA Finals.
40:43
You could, a few weeks from now, end up having really, really good tickets on the Sixers. I just, I don't believe they're gonna pass the Pacers. I, I, I know a lot of people do.
40:53
I'm not in that camp, Gil, so I can't, I can't make that bet right now. Sixers to make the play-in, minus 1,000. Sixers to make the playoffs, remember, two routes. Mm-hmm.
41:04
Either regular season to get in the top six, or winning one of two once you're in the play-in because they're gonna be in the seven, eight. To make the playoffs, minus 1,100. The no is six to one. No bite on the no.
41:17
They have a super e- by the way, they have a super easy- No... schedule to try to get into the top six to begin with. But again, if the Heat beat them tomorrow, that's probably not gonna happen. Yeah, right. Correct.
41:26
Yeah. Yeah. But you still, again, but it's still a play-in. It, it's not a lock that you win, that you don't lose two in a row.
41:33
No, no, no, it's, I, I mean, if I had to bet that one way or the other- If you had to, you'd go no... it definitely would be the no. Yeah. Without a doubt. Yeah.
41:38
Because of, yeah, like I'm, I feel like people don't think about that at all. I mean, it's one, two games you're talking about potentially. I, I mean, you, two losses, you're out. See you later. Yep.
41:48
All right, uh, warm up to the Masters. Let me just say before we, uh, before you even give your picks, Valero Texas Open, the week before the Masters, do you bet tournaments before... majors differently?
42:01
Um, a little bit. I think it's just more of which guys you have to be a little careful with.
42:04
I think there are some guys, like Rory this week is probably a perfect example of, uh, you got a lot of guys in this tournament.
42:10
It's a great field this week, but you got a bunch of guys that are coming in that are completely not in form, uh, ahead, with the Masters just a week away.
42:18
I mean, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, these are stars of the game who really haven't done much this season.
42:26
So I, I, I don't know how, how many guys I would, I, I, I would warn people to tread lightly with, Gil.
42:32
I have no interest with Rory, and with the current number he's at, though, nine to one to win this tournament, the guy really hasn't done a whole lot, a whole lot on tour so far this season, and I do think he, all he cares about is the Masters a week from now.
42:44
He's a guy, yeah, like, uh, Ma- Matt and I talked about on Long Shots yesterday. Lis- download now, uh, the full episode. You can go, uh, listen to all our picks there.
42:52
Uh, he brought it up, like, like I'm, I'm fading him in a matchup against Matsuyama. Like, Matt brought that one up. I'm playing that. Matsuyama's a guy I'm pretty high on this week. He comes in.
43:00
Um, I mean, look, is he a guy that might be looking a little, a little bit more towards next week? Sure. Uh, he is in form so far this season, has some good tournament finishes.
43:09
Uh, T6 of the players, he's won already, one at the Genesis, T12 at the API. Really good season he's putting together. I already have a Masters bet in on him. I did bet him this week, though, uh, with a top 20 as well.
43:21
Corey Conners, this is the only place he's won at in his career, so [laughs] I bet on Corey Conners. He's having a pretty good season. T13 of the players, T8- T18 at the API.
43:29
Um, he was a pretty high model result for me this week, so I am in on... The only two outrights for me this week, Hideki and Conners.
43:36
Um, top 20 is on Hideki, Conners, Alex Noren, Keith Mitchell, um, and then a few tournament matchups for me, uh, this week.
43:45
But yeah, it's definitely, the biggest, the biggest lesson I would impart, try to impart on people, Gil, is don't be mad at yourself for whatever you bet this week as you're leading into next week. Yeah, yeah.
43:55
You know, if you're getting excited about betting the Masters- Yeah... you don't wanna come out of this tournament- That's right... upset about something. Great point. So whatever that means, dial back to that level.
44:04
Last two things, just to tie up, uh, some, uh, loose ends here. If the Celtics win their last seven regular season games, they will tie for the 15th best record in the history of the NBA 82 game schedule.
44:14
And I would like to vote for the most confusing moment of today's show over the last two hours. That would be the, uh, discussion about the Tampa Bay Rays stadium and day, night splits. [laughs] They get a couple tweets.
44:24
Just, just wanna throw that out there. We've done all we can do. Gojo and Golick are next. Enjoy, from Visa, the Sports Betting Network.
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