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Apr 4, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 4, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 4, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
43:17
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Harry taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It's Kelly Midlin, live from Bar Canada, the D. How you doing? I'm, I'm doing great, man. Just chipper, just a great morning, you know? Chipper? Yeah, that's right. You're very chipper this morning, I can tell.
0:28
[laughs] Uh, it's Thursday, you know what that means. It's Zach and Crack. Zach and Crack. Zach Cohen. What's he gonna talk about? A little tennis, a little basketball, little whatever- Mm-hmm...
0:36
from Zach Cohen, uh, one of our senior writers here at the network. And of course, Crack, Bill Krackomberger, unscripted. Find out how that whole, uh, Tropicana closing went with him. Did he, uh- I missed last week.
0:48
Was he going out, was he going out big, uh, at the Trop? Oh, he had a, he had- Final days? He had a great story. [laughs] He and Randy McKay and all their buddies, like, they,
0:57
they know from their experience that when a casino closes, whenever you see any of these jackpots, they are obligated to give it out, right? Oh. 'Cause those are, those are the losings, in theory, of others, right?
1:08
So it's, they must give it out before the casino closes. [laughs] So they were like, "We're going in there. We're gonna flood the zone with bodies."
1:14
[laughs] And then they, they came to the, uh, they forgot one pesky detail, which was, there's a whole clip about this on Twitter, which is, "Oh yeah, it's, it's owned by Bally's, and they own multiple casinos, so they can just spread the money out."
1:26
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's, it wasn't a mom and pop deal. Right, they could just move the money from the machines- Right... over to the other ones. Yeah. Oh, man.
1:33
But I think he, I think he went, so we'll get, we'll get, uh, thoughts on him o- on the closing of a, a Vegas legend, legendary property. I was cracking up.
1:41
I think it was Las Vegas Local that had a tweet the other day that was like, "Man, everybody's really freaking out about a casino closing they haven't been in in 20 years." [laughs] I'm like- That's very true...
1:48
yeah, yeah. It's very true. Great pla- great place to park, though. Great place. Uh, let's start, though. I gotta, uh, we gotta talk about Stefon Diggs, that went down during the show yesterday.
1:58
We'll, uh, flesh out what, if even, you know, the betting markets, uh, budged on that, and we'll talk about it, uh, a little bit more.
2:07
But basketball first, I just wanted to mention, this has nothing to do with betting off the top of it. Did you see this Malachi Flynn drop 50? [laughs] It's crazy.
2:15
Malachi Flynn, who for most people listening to this is like, "Is he still at San Diego State? I'm just curious." Uh, Malachi Flynn plays for the Pistons. They lost, no surprise. But he dropped 50. Uh, he becomes the...
2:27
This is from Tim McMahon. M- Malachi Flynn made NBA history versus the Hawks last night. No player has ever scored 50 points with a lower career scoring average entering the game. That per ESPN Stats & Information.
2:39
5.2 points per game, and he tickled the strings to 50 balloons last night. That's what I used to say at basketball camp.
2:46
I don't even know, I don't even wanna tell you what my thought process was when I saw this last night.
2:50
It was like, saw this come down, and then I was like, "Man, he scored 50 for the Raptors when they had that bad of a night?" Because they, they [laughs] got blown out.
3:00
[laughs] And I'm like, I'm like, "Oh, he doesn't play for the Raptors anymore." Yeah, Raptors, Raptors. Yeah, yeah. Ba- back up on the Pistons, sure, yeah. Hawks win 121-113, but they don't cover.
3:07
The, uh, the, the, I only re- I only bring that up because I brought this up some time ago when guys... Remember that spate of games where guys were scoring 60 all of a sudden?
3:16
And I said, "Oh yeah, you gotta be, like, real, a prominent player to score si- 60," but the NBA is littered in history with guys that have scored 50 who you're like, "Wow, he scored 50."
3:25
So one of the other, uh, bottom-scoring averages on that was Tracy Murray. Tracy Murray, I was at that game in Oakland when he played for the Bullets, and he dropped 50 out of nowhere.
3:34
And there's this other game with Willie Burton of the Sixers, for those who saw that. I wanna say it was in the '90s, but don't hold me to that. Might've been the early 2000s.
3:42
He scored 53 in a game where it was, like, all free throws almost. It was, like, 28 free throws or something. [laughs] So anyway, just rando, M- Malachi Flynn. Terrence Ross, my only question on that one is,
3:53
has he had more than one where he went 50? Te- like, Terrence Ross has had, he's had a couple random massive...
4:00
I feel like he is the classic example in the past six years of if you heard of random bench guy having a monster game- Yeah... it, it's, it's Terrence Ross. But, uh, wh- when he was on the Magic.
4:11
Um, but, uh, [laughs] yeah, I don't know. That was my question when I first saw this. Let's, uh- I think he's had a couple, but Let's bring up some more bettable things. One, the Bucs lose last night.
4:21
And this is of note because- So gross... remember, they were 30 and 13 when Adrian Griffin got fired. And I remember bringing it up at the time and saying, "All right, uh, why are they firing this guy?"
4:34
And a lot of people did, right? Like, the 30 and 13. The proof was not in the pudding, if you will, in the standings.
4:41
But all the basketball heads were like, "Yeah, you know, the Bucs just can't get better with Adrian Griffin. 30 and 13 is a bit of a mirage." I'm paraphrasing.
4:48
But that was essentially, you might even had that, that opinion. I did. And so they hired Doc Rivers. There, there was, there was three games, I think, where he was the interim coach.
4:56
They are 15 and 15 now under Glen "Doc" Rivers. They lose by 10 to the Grizzlies last night as 12 and a half point home favorites. Yeah. So, I mean, I'm just gonna ask, because Doc Rivers most famously as a coach,
5:13
yes, he has the one title, but he had, what, three Hall of Famers probably on that team? In KG, Pierce, and Rondo. Um- At least two. At least two, but you get the idea. Yeah. And then
5:29
since then, he's been the king of losing three to one leads in post-seasons. He is the, I mean, sits alone. There is no Mount Rushmore of that. He is the, the master of that.
5:40
So I ask you, for those who think the Bucs can sort of rise up in the playoffs, you would say? I would say that there's still a chance. I mean, look, the Eastern Conference is such a mess right now that there's
5:53
Y- y- you have one team at the top who's putting together, Boston Celtics, who are putting q- quietly putting together one of the best regular seasons, uh, in NBA history Again, if they win out, they will tie for the 15th best regular season record of all time.
6:05
Yep. 82 game schedule. Yeah, and you go look at, like, you know, simple rating systems, just like strength of schedule involved with what your net rating is throughout the...
6:11
They're like a top five team in NBA history right now. So they're gonna be the one, the ones that you gotta get by. But every other one of these teams has question marks.
6:19
I mean, is Cleveland, they're still getting healthy, they're getting all their pieces back, but are they good enough to take that leap and take down a team like the Celtics? I don't know.
6:28
I'm not necessarily there on them yet. Um, man, I still got a win total on them to sweat out, I just realized looking at their, uh, record. [laughs] I need five more wins, Cleveland, get it together. Uh, Orlando, I, I...
6:40
There's a lot of these teams, look, Orlando, that have had great regular seasons. You really trust them in the postseason? No. New York Knicks, injury question marks, right? Just like Philadelphia.
6:49
Is everything gonna be okay injury ri- wise when these guys get, teams get to the playoffs? I think Philadelphia will be. Joel Embiid you're seeing play, uh, back playing.
6:57
I think he will be, but are they gonna run into one of these t- tough opponents too early on for, for him to, uh, not to give him enough ramp-up time to be truly healthy? I...
7:07
The Pacers, the Heat, the Bulls, the Hawks are all flawed basketball teams. So with all the problems wrong with Milwaukee, you should, they should still be able to get to the Eastern Conference Finals.
7:20
It's just a matter of will. And then go up three to one and the Celtics will have them just where they want them.
7:23
[laughs] That's, that's actually sound, it sounds very possible for either one of those teams to go three to one and then bl- and then blow it.
7:29
Even as I say that, I like, I feel the Heat raising their hands like, "We're still here." I mean, sure. Yeah. Um, Victor Wembanyama. Have I talked about this guy at all? [laughs] Ever on this show?
7:39
Uh, yesterday, uh, call it a spite bet, call it whatever you want, I made an additional Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year bet. The best number in Nevada, or at least in Las Vegas, was nine to one.
7:50
It was better at other place- DraftKings had, I think, still 12 to one yesterday. Um, obviously if you have skins and that kind of thing, you got an even m- you know, better numbers than that.
7:59
Uh, after I made it, and I already have a pre-flop on it, as you know, um, people sort of, sort of came out just like in a, in a tidal wave in terms of like former players on podcasts and on television.
8:15
Dennis Scott on NBA TV made the, made the, uh, plea for, uh, Victor as Defensive Player of the Year yesterday. Gilbert Arenas, Agent Zero, did it on whatever that podcast is that he does.
8:25
And Draymond Green himself, a former Defensive Player of the Year, um, he came out and said he's been wrong.
8:36
Oh, by the way, I know I said on here a little while back, Wemby shouldn't be the Defensive Player of the Year, and I lied. Wemby should be the Defensive Player of the Year because he is that amazing defensively.
8:47
The way he impacts the game on the defensive end, whether it's off the ball, on the ball, it's a problem.
8:52
When you, when you start driving to the hole and, like, guys may have a layup, maybe not, and they just turn out and go the other way, that's a problem, and that's a blocked shot in a sense. You know?
9:01
And no one will account for that. It's like a screen. You go set a screen, no one's gonna give you an assist, but the guy's wide open to knock a shot down.
9:10
You drive into the lane and get a layup and you see Wemby and you just go the other way, that's a blocked shot. I don't know what lab he was created in, but I need to go create me a son in that lab because [laughs]...
9:20
dude is unbelievable. He is. And I'm just gonna say, you got former players, you got current players, you got a former Defensive Player of the Year saying it.
9:29
Um, and the tidal wave has begun, and I actually think these now, forget about a little schmendrick like me, these guys move the needle. Oh, yeah. And I think it's coming, and they're all right.
9:41
I'll, I'll, I'll probably be joining you. We were texting about it yesterday. I mean, the fact...
9:45
We-- you've often brought it up, but like when we were, when nobody was having this conversation, it's all about, we're talking about voters, we're talking about national narratives.
9:53
Now that it, there's every show and everybody that you listen to is having this conversation- Thank you... that's what I care about then when I'm looking at odds that are like 10 to one.
10:03
So I might be getting involved with you. [laughs] I'm glad you... I'm glad. Welcome. Welcome. Um, and it's right. Again, one guy when he's on the court, Victor, they're the best defensive team in the league.
10:17
When he's off, they're damn near the worst. And the other guy's got Ant and Naz and Conley who are defensive players, right? It's not the same thing. We went through the numbers yesterday. No need to belabor the point.
10:31
Zach Cohen on college hoops and tennis next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
10:45
Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with the free VSiN daily newsletter. In today's newsletter Oh, we got Tulley's take on the Final Four.
10:55
We got Texans odds movement after their trade for Stefon Diggs, and Masters betting primer. I don't even know if that's in there. I'm just gonna work it in there. We gotta talk Masters odds later today. Yeah.
11:06
Yeah, let's do that. Get expert analysis, the latest odds delivered straight to your inbox absolutely free. Visit vsin.com/newsletter to subscribe. It's Gil Alexander, it's, uh, Kelly Bidlin.
11:16
Uh, should I do my tennis plays here right before Zach? Yeah. Go that way? Uh, okay, so yesterday, by the way, the match from the day before that got suspended because of rain into yesterday, we lost on.
11:28
That was on, uh, Korea, um, minus 122 I believe it was. But we did hit Taylor Townsend, uh, in Charleston, South Carolina yesterday, plus 126, dog. Uh, she won it in straight sets against, uh, Ekaterina Alexandrova.
11:44
So we're, again, we're just dipping our toe in here early in clay season, and I wonder if, I think we're two in one now off the top if I'm not mistaken here in clay.
11:51
So today's the first day where I'm sort of getting a little Getting a little jiggy with it, if you will- Oh... with, with the clay, uh, 'cause the hard court season was great. Uh, we do have three plays. I do.
12:01
Uh, Tatjana Maria against, uh, Julia Riera. Uh, taking the shot on Maria. Again, her clay court numbers traditionally j- are, are a tick better than Riera's. Uh, taking her at minus 110.
12:11
And then I'm, I am taking flyers on two big dogs, uh, whose clay numbers, uh, in different ways are better. In the first case, Francesca Jones, on lower tours her clay numbers are out of this world.
12:24
I am going to bet on that translating against L- uh, Laura Siegemund at plus 225. So big dog Francesca Jones here on the clay. This is in, uh... By the way, all three of these are in Bogota, Colombia.
12:36
Uh, and then Hailey Baptiste, uh, I believe she's a DC, by the way, plus 172, also shouldn't be that big of a dog, uh, based on her clay form against Marie Bouzková. So getting a little nutty with the clay here early.
12:49
We'll see how this goes, but three plays. I, if this goes well, all systems go. If it doesn't, just a reminder to sort of, you know, tread lighter. Yeah. E- enter the season lightly. Yes.
13:00
I still couldn't find that Corey yesterday. I'm still working on that. I do have a couple first-round leader golf bets, uh- Please... if anybody wants to get involved this morning at the Valero Texas Open.
13:09
Uh, Ludvig Aberg and Corey Conners are already out on the course. Uh, Aberg, sorry, one under through four. Conners, one over through three. So maybe a good thing you didn't miss, uh, miss out on those.
13:21
Hideki Matsuyama's the other guy I bet, though. Um, 40 to 1 on a first-round leader bet for him. He has not teed off yet, in case you are interested.
13:30
Most of these you can also get on live if you wanted to hop in on Aberg here. Excellent pronunciation on Aberg. What is that a- above the A? That's not an umlaut, that's something else, right? Yeah.
13:40
I'm- All right, Kelly... not exactly sure how that works. Kelly, Kelly's gonna get back to us on that. Yeah. Uh, Zach Cohen joins us, ladies and gentlemen. Always a, uh, pleasure to have Zach on.
13:47
Part of the Zach and Crack duo here on a Thursday on The Numbers Game. He's a decent writer and editor. You can follow him on Twitter on Betting on X, or @bettingonx I should say.
13:56
Uh, comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. How about you guys? Doing very well. You have some tennis today as well, right? Yeah, I'm on the clay as well.
14:06
I have, uh, Stan Wawrinka minus 120 against Mariano Navone. Uh, that's a match where Wawrinka's facing a guy that loves to play on dirt, but I do think that the slow courts are gonna help Stan quite a bit.
14:17
I just think he's a guy at this point in his career, he needs a lot of time to load up his shots, especially that backhand, but this will give him the opportunity to do that.
14:25
Navone, uh, a guy that's really, you know, an impressive mover on clay, an all-around player that has had a good season, uh, is a really good clay court player, but I do think that he lacks kind of the firepower you need to beat Stan.
14:36
I do think that Stan has, uh, had enough rest in the last couple of weeks to come out here and, you know, kind of break that rhythm he's had of where he's lost second-round matches over the, uh, last couple tournaments.
14:45
You get to... In clay season, you get to say things like, "Loves to play on dirt." Yeah. Yeah. You get to use phrases like that. That's, that's, that sounds like a cool tennis phrase. The dirt, the dirt baller. Yeah.
14:53
[laughs] Uh, you like some in the NBA tonight as well, Zach? Yeah. I have the Knicks minus three and a half against the Kings. Uh, I...
15:00
We just saw them go on the road, beat the Kings by eight points, uh, in a game where they really dominated on the glass.
15:07
Uh, I do think that losing Malik Monk hurts the Kings in a match-up like this where, you know, the Knicks have been one of the best defensive teams in the league over the last 10 games.
15:16
And then also just the match-ups here are kind of concerning to me for the Kings.
15:20
I think that Jalen Brunson can match the production of De'Aaron Fox, and I do think that having Isaiah Hartenstein, that's one of the best post defenders in the league right now.
15:29
I think that he's gonna kind of make things difficult. On Domantas Sabonis, I'm just a little bit nervous about, you know, the status of Josh Hart in this game.
15:35
He's listed as questionable, but, you know, knowing him and the minutes he plays and the, the, like, the love he has for Tibbs, the mutual love, I would guess he'll be out there if he's not, you know, dealing with something really significant.
15:45
Let me just throw this at you because, uh, I asked this of Drew Dinsick in some form earlier this week, and I'll ask it of you. Is there a... I'll ask it a different way.
15:52
Is there a team or team that you feel heading into the playoffs, obviously a little more than a week away now, the end of the regular season, that you feel you have rated higher than the conventional wisdom or lower than the conventional wisdom?
16:06
East or West. I think that I'm really coming around to the fact that the Sixers can do some damage in the playoffs.
16:12
I know that's kind of, you know, the wrong answer because we haven't really seen them, you know, without Joel Embiad, with Joel Embiad, but he's back now. I thought he looked good in that game against the Thunder.
16:20
He's gonna have some time to kind of get his feet under him, you know, kind of get the minutes up before the postseason.
16:25
I do think if they do avoid Boston, there's really nothing getting in the way of them making a run to the Eastern Conference Finals.
16:30
What we've seen from the Milwaukee Bucks this season has not been enough to scare me off of them, you know, potentially winning that 2-7 matchup if that's what it is.
16:38
So I do think the Sixers are a pretty good bet to, you know, kind of make a run in the playoffs, whether it's Eastern Conference winner or, you know, finals with the hope of hedging.
16:46
But I don't think that, you know, it's out of the question that they go make a run and potentially even win the East. Zach, you think that's a good bet right now?
16:52
We were discussing that yesterday, and I, I, I guess I'm a little s- too scared of the timing of if they end up in the play-in tournament and you're kind of risking with that ticket.
17:00
But obviously you're gonna get way better odds now betting it than if they get out of there and are in the playoff fields. Do you th- do you think that's a good bet now? I think it still is.
17:09
I mean, I would've liked it better at, like, 20 to 1 to win the East, like, five days ago, but, you know, it's... I think you could still get it at 15 to 1.
17:16
I have a lot of faith in them winning that first play-in game if they do end up playing it and getting, you know, the seven seed. So I do think that it's pr- still a pretty good bet.
17:23
I think that they're probably the second-best team in the East. Zach, we got a question the other day from, uh, Trip Tepper, loyal listener, also a loyal listener to the whole network, uh, about tanking.
17:31
Was this the time f- to, uh, to bet on, on, you know, against teams that are tanking?
17:36
And I did a whole thing about how, um, you know, the math of the ping pong balls is such that it's different from when we did our whole Tankapalooza thing some six years ago.
17:45
And the other big thing this year is that, you know, multiple NBA execs, multiple NBA executives have said this might be the worst draft ever. The draft is on June 26th and 27th.
17:58
Obviously, we've got the whole NFL draft to get to way before that. But you had some thoughts on this as well. Yeah, I mean, I do some draft writing for, uh, RealGM. I do a lot of, like, player profiles.
18:09
I used to do it for Forbes Sports, now I'm doing it for RealGM. I just kinda cover prospects and, you know, do some profiles on them, longer write-ups.
18:17
And I do think that, you know, it's just a little bit of a cop-out in my opinion to say that. I think that obviously y- it's a little weaker at the top.
18:24
Like, the guy, the, uh, the player that's at the top right now, Alexander Sarr, people are gonna come in hopefully not expecting him to be Victor Wembanyama.
18:31
But you're not gonna get that instant production from the number one pick. But at the same time, I do think it's a pretty deep draft, and I do think that there are going to be stars in it.
18:39
So I think that, you know, the, the way that these people talk, I think that it's kinda just setting themselves up where if they do happen to have a bust, they could be like, "Oh, it, it was just a bad draft."
18:47
But I do think that [laughs] there's a lot of talent in this draft, and I think that, you know, teams are gonna be happy with the players that they're getting. Yeah.
18:54
Do you lament the fact that we don't have that many draft options like we do for the NFL? No. I mean, I can't stand draft betting. I think it's so difficult with all the smoke that gets put out right before the draft.
19:06
Like, it ends up just messing with you, and you end up making the wrong plays. So I'm happy that there's not that many draft options.
19:11
I'm, I'm sure there will be soon, like, you know, in a week or two I'm sure that we're gonna start seeing more NBA draft odds. But yeah, it's, it's not something that I would be dying to bet even if I could.
19:20
Yeah, I would disagree with you about that NFL draft thing, except for the fact that last year was exactly how you described it, so. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, I can't really disagree anymore.
19:28
By the way, the 2000 NBA draft for, uh, draftniks or draft heads, c- largely considered to be the worst draft of all time. Uh, number one pick in that draft, do you remember who that was? No. Kenyon Martin. I don't.
19:41
[laughs] Kenyon Martin was the number one pick. I- But here, but here's your- I know who it- Yeah, here's, here's, here's your other, in the top 10. Stromile Swift. [laughs] Darius Miles. Darius Miles.
19:50
Oh, I love Darius Miles. [laughs] Marcus Fizer went fourth. Mike Miller had a career. He was fifth. Mike Miller, yeah. Yeah. Uh, then DeMar Johnson, Chris Mihm. Oh, Jamal Crawford was in there too.
20:02
Joel Przybilla, and Keon Duling. I could go on, but you get the idea. Hey, Enes Kanter would come in at 16. Darius Miles, Darius Miles was a success if you count The Perfect Score. That was a great movie.
20:12
[laughs] That's right. Yeah. That's great. Yeah. Was it with Scarlett Johansson? Yes. [laughs] Yeah. By the way, Jamal Crawford would we say had the best career of that bunch that I just mentioned? Probably so, right?
20:23
Yeah. Yeah. You know Turkoglu's in there too. He's obviously a career- Yeah, Turkoglu went 16th. He, uh, was in a championship series with the Dwight Howard-led Magic back in the day. I wanna say it was 2009.
20:35
Uh, but yeah, that's about it. So that's, that's the one you're trying to top if you believe the NBA execs. But maybe what you're saying, Zach, is, is just their way of setting it up so that they don't look bad.
20:44
Uh, appreciate it as always. Good luck with the tennis. Um, and you said the, you said no real thoughts on the Final Four games.
20:49
I don't want people thinking I'm not asking you about that, but you're not really, you don't have much conviction here. Yeah, not much. Again, I guess I have a slight lean on Alabama.
20:56
You know, I, I do think UConn's gonna win somewhat easily. It's just a lot of points for a team that I do think is really good offensively.
21:02
So I think that if Alabama gets hot from three, they can make it a little bit closer of a game. But yeah, I'm not gonna end up playing anything.
21:07
I'm, I'm more looking forward to these games, uh, tomorrow night in the women's tournament. Oh, man, I... And you know what? I don't think, you know, a lot of people have that feeling.
21:14
A lot of people have that sentiment given the, uh, given the spreads. I don't necessarily, but I get the idea. Uh, thank you, Zach. Appreciate it as always. Thanks, guys. Zach Cohen, everybody.
21:25
Again, our, uh, senior writer and editor. @bettingonX on Twitter. We'll come back. Texans odds, how they move with the Diggs trade next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
21:39
For a limited time, we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits for free. Just sign up at vsin.com/splits.
21:46
VSiN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in all the action, find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money does not match the public opinion.
21:55
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22:03
That's where y- [laughs] that's where you go now to claim your free two-week access to VSiN's betting splits. Don't strike out on potential winnings. Visit vsin.com/splits and start making smarter baseball bets today.
22:15
Let's go Guardians, five and two. Day game today. Other bets too. Quick turnaround to Minnesota. What's that? Other bets too. You're allowed to bet o- other things other than baseball. Oh, that's correct. Yeah.
22:25
Yeah, I don't know why we specifically say baseball in our read, but. [laughs] I think it's to highlight that the season's started- Yeah... and we have splits for them now. That's right.
22:32
But we have splits for everything. Uh, yeah. Um, all right, Stefon Diggs. Yesterday on the show, um, while we were doing it, the trade came down where the Buffalo Bills trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Um,
22:47
and everybody goes crazy about that. You know, we, we immediately, after the show, we looked up at our screens here at the casino. We're like, "Oh my God, they're doing, like, an hour on this trade." Yeah.
22:57
Um, here's, in our world, in the betting market, here's what moved. Let's start there. The Texans in acquiring Stefon Diggs, uh, Super Bowl 25 to 1 to 16 to 1. To win the conference, 12 to 1 to plus 850.
23:11
These are at DraftKings. To win the division, the AFC South, from plus 135 to plus 115. C.J. Stroud's MVP numbers went from 12 to 1 to nine to one. Bills went oppo. To win the Super Bowl from 11 to 1 to 12 to 1.
23:24
To win the AFC from plus 550 to plus 700 to seven, uh, seven to one. To win the AFC East from plus 140 to plus 160. Josh Allen's MVP from seven to one to eight to one, his MVP candidacy, if you will.
23:38
So, uh, how do you characterize that? Movement, but, you know, in a... I, I would, I would argue more than, uh, slightly more than an incremental way, right? Slightly more than I thought it would. Yes. Yes.
23:53
And I would disagree with the nature of the moves. I, I, I completely agree. That's exactly how I would describe it. It... I'm, I'm not shocked that things moved. I, I thought they would've moved a little bit.
24:04
This is maybe a little, on both teams, this is more than I was expecting. Um- I don't know. They, I mean, I know we caught it while we were in show yesterday.
24:13
I don't know if you've had more time to, to think about your thoughts on the trade. I like, I like it from both sides. I really, I actually do.
24:20
I, I like that the Texans are seizing on the moment of what they have with C.J. Stroud on a rookie deal and trying to go all in as quick as possible to make themselves a true championship contender.
24:32
And for the Bills side of things, I think you know what you have with Josh Allen and those tight ends, and this Stefon Diggs thing has been a storyline, not a good one, for the past couple seasons now, and I think it was time to part ways.
24:44
Um, let's get into some of the, the numbers on it. Here, here are the facts, by the way.
24:47
Buffalo Bills sending, uh, the four-time Pro Bowl wideout and two day three draft picks, one this year, one next year, to the Texans for a second round choice, uh, in 2025.
25:01
So Bills sending that with, um, Diggs for the second round choice next year. Still feels a little bit like Houston overpaid a little bit to me, but I, I, I don't have a problem. You, you say it all the time.
25:14
Well, how do you win a Super Bowl? With a quarterback on a rookie deal- Well-... or he's a Hall of Famer, right? That's right. You, you, you, you take advantage of that, and you try to surround him as, as best you can.
25:24
Now, here's the story with Stefon Diggs. Um, so last year, because up until last year, everybody thought, you know, Stefon Diggs, one of the best, I don't know what, 10 wideouts conservatively in the NFL.
25:37
Maybe some people even thought higher of him. Uh, after Ken Dorsey was fired in November, the Bills' offensive coordinator, you may remember that, Diggs' production dropped under Joe Brady.
25:47
Uh, Joe Brady coming back this year for the Bills. Uh, Diggs averaged 45 yards per game the rest of the year,
25:56
43.1 including the playoffs, and scored just once in seven regular season games and zero times in their two playoff games under Joe Brady.
26:06
Now, um, let's go to a couple of these tweets because how do you spin that information? That, that sounded, oh, wow, uh, maybe Joe Brady was the problem with Stefon Diggs. Well, maybe.
26:17
Tima Risk from Pro Football Focus, uh, he says it this way. With Ken Dorsey, 84.5, uh, receiving grade, 27.2% target rate, 2.26 yards per route run.
26:30
Then under Joe Brady, all of that dropped from 84.5 receiving grade to 65.6, from 27.2% target rate to 23.9%, and the yards per route run goes from 2.26 all the way down to 1.24 under Joe Brady.
26:45
Let's just do one more of these before we pop back in with Betts, because again, everybody making the point about from Dorsey to Brady, this is where it sort of went bad for Stefon Diggs, and it's a bit of, I would argue, it's a bit of chicken and egg, right?
27:00
Like, what do you believe on that? This is a, uh, this is a, a Twitter account that legitimately has made their whole, you know, quest in life putting Steve Tasker in the Hall of Fame.
27:13
Uh, it's called Put Steve Tasker in the Hall of Fame, the former Buffalo Bill. S- um, this is with Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. Josh Allen's quarterback rating when passing to Stefon Diggs was 76.97.
27:27
His quarterback rating when not passing to Diggs, this is under Joe Brady, went all the way up to 93.39. So again, under Joe Brady, when Josh Allen is passing to Diggs, way lower quarterback rating than when he is not.
27:45
Bill's record, however, with Joe Brady, or not however, but Bill's record, by the way, with Joe Brady as an offensive coordinator, they were seven and two last year. And remember their record without Brady before that,
27:57
and with Ken Dorsey, it was five and five. He concludes Bill's are Super Bowl, are still Super Bowl contenders. So all of that to say, what does this mean for us betting-wise? So again, that's a bit of chicken and egg.
28:08
Do you believe the narrative that Stefon Diggs was a victim of the change in offensive coordinator, that Joe Brady just didn't maximize all that Stefon Diggs could bring to the table, or do you believe the opposite of that, which is, no, Joe Brady figured out that the Bills are actually gonna be better by minimizing
28:29
and not scheming for necessarily Stefon Diggs? It's the latter. You believe the latter. I believe that, yeah. I kind of do too. I don't, I don't think that means Stefon Diggs is a bad wide receiver. I don't either.
28:40
It was just reeval- I think you, you, you put it, you phrased it perfectly.
28:44
It's just when he came in as offensive coordinator, to maximize the offense on the team, it meant, uh, Diggs taking a bit of a step back in that offense. Steve Fezzik has chimed in. You're familiar with Mr. Fezzik.
28:56
[laughs] Steve Fezzik, only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. Um, he mentions here via text, he said, "Bill's under 10 and a half. Hurry." Okay. Uh, he leans Houston over nine and a half,
29:11
even with some juice. I disagree with him about the Houston thing, and I've said that before here. I said it last week when we were talking about, again, we don't have the full schedule.
29:19
We don't know how schedules are gonna be arranged, if there's, you know, three straight road games or what the aggregate rest is. We don't know any of that, but we do know opponents.
29:27
And for me, when you look at the Houston Texans opponents, and, and by the way, I love the fact that it's this unbelievable Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs trio of wide receivers for a guy in C.J.
29:38
Stroud, who we obviously on this show love. I love the coach. I love DeMeco Ryans. I love so much about this Texans team. But that is, again, holding two thoughts in your heads at the same time.
29:51
You know, you have to look at who their opponents are. And again, besides the division games against the Colts, the Jags, and the Titans, some people feel the Colts and the Jags are good.
30:01
But besides the division games, your home games are going to be against, oh, what do you know, the Buffalo Bills, the Stefon Diggs revenge game, what it'll be called.
30:11
Uh, also the Lions, the Dolphins, and the Ravens, and the Bears, by the way. But Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Ravens are some of your home games that are not division games. And your away games outside of the division are
30:26
Green Bay.
30:27
Y- you have some easy ones in Min- in, you know, New England, I suppose some people think the Minnesota Vikings aren't gonna be any good, but it's Green Bay on the road, Minnesota on the road, New England, the Jets, the Chiefs, and the Cowboys.
30:40
So I don't think there's anybody who's gonna argue that Jets, Chiefs, Cowboys on the road, plus Bills, Dolphins, Lions, Ravens at home, those... I just mentioned seven games. Yeah.
30:54
Where if you go three and four, you're probably like, "Oh, thank God," right? Yeah, I was gonna say, if you're go- if you're going four to three, you're happy as hell. Yes.
31:03
But I mean, two and five ain't out of the question there. So I'm just saying as, as much as I love, and then, you know, pick random losses in the rest of them, but I, as much as I love the Texans, and as much as I,
31:17
I think, you know, great, e- absolutely exploit the rookie deal for C.J. Stroud, exploit in a good way, and add parts, as much as I like that, you still have that schedule because you have a first place schedule. Yeah.
31:29
And that's the issue. And so again, you can love this team and still think that... Let's put it this way. Even if you don't believe in my under, it should caution you to go over. Let's put it that way. I agree.
31:41
At the, at the very minimum. So I, I disagree a little with Fezzik on that. Yeah, I, I, I think I agree with you. I mean, that's not one I'd be runni- running to betting over on.
31:48
Also, how surprised would either one of us be, though, if C.J. Stroud just continued to go nuclear on this league and- It wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world. Right, exactly. Yeah.
31:56
But I'm just saying cautionary note. 'Cause, uh, 'cause, you know, most people are like, "Oh my God, Stefon Diggs is playing for the Texans." Everybody overreact. They're gonna be great. The Bills are gonna stink.
32:04
And we, we went through it yesterday. Curtis Samuels and Khalil Shakir are their best two wide outs on roster right now. Yep. Have time to address that, but
32:12
maybe Joe Brady figured it out, and maybe Josh Allen figured it out. Like, we don't want someone who's unhappier. And by the way, does that rear its head in Houston as well when things are going so well as is?
32:24
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33:01
It's code ANG, and earn a $500 bonus bet for every $1,000 you wager now. Try to induce Kelly to do the, uh- Promo code ANG. There you go. Like a numbers game. There you go.
33:13
Um, so the beauty of doing this show is not only do we have the best listeners ever, but most of our guests also listen and live text it sometimes, or always, always have comments.
33:24
So Fezz was listening, uh, and Steve Fezzik, uh, chimed in. He said, I'll quote, "I agree strongly with you that the Bills under is the better bet of the two."
33:36
Getting back to the Diggs thing, and I was saying how I disagreed with, uh, with Fezzik on the, uh, on the Houston over call that he made. I would actually lean under.
33:44
He said, "I agree strongly the Bills under is the better bet. I think Houston will move to 10, so I'm more getting in front of the likely market move playing the over nine and a half. You're right.
33:55
I would then go under 10." So there you go. Um, and then he's got some other stuff that he's texting about, which is unrelated. [laughs] Um, she'll get it too. Maybe some other time. Workout plans?
34:05
Uh, no, VSiN plus, plus, plus. Um, so that, so I just wanted to, to tie that up.
34:11
One thing that happened yesterday, Kelly, that I, before we move on to Masters odds, 'cause it, w- we're only a week away from the Masters, for God's sakes. Whoa. We gotta talk about this.
34:19
Um, but before we get there, the other big, the other, the, the biggest college basketball news yesterday was, did you hear about this UConn plane kerfuffle? Yeah.
34:30
So I, uh, uh, the bottom line is, once I just give the details here, the question is gonna be, is this a thing or not a thing? So apparently, do we have the tweet on this? 'Cause I wanna get the details correct on it.
34:40
But the UConn trip, um, got delayed, and it got delayed to the point where, here's what Jeff Goodman had to say about it over at Goodman Hoops on Twitter.
34:51
He said, "What this delay me- means is that UConn probably lands," we're talking about yesterday now, "around 3:15 to 3:30 AM local time, and gets into the hotel around 4:30 AM.
35:03
Can't wait to hear Dan Hurley today at a media, at a media availability. Should be in rarest of rare form." [laughs] I believe he was live tweeting about it last night at, like, 1:00 AM. Hurley was?
35:14
As they were sit- as they were still sitting, uh, in Hart- Was it Hartford they flew out of? Yep. Um, yeah, I don't, I... Little scary, what mechanical issues with, like, not just one plane, but, like, a second plane.
35:27
Then they ended up on a much smaller plane. So I, I, I don't know. I, it's, it, it feels like it's still, uh, far enough out that this shouldn't really impact things. Well, so this is nice.
35:37
They were originally, by the way, uh, expected to fly out of Bradley International Airport around 6:00 PM. Mechanical issues caused the delay.
35:43
Team was unable to find another plane to take them cross country, uh, to Phoenix.
35:48
Ultimately, the replacement aircraft slated to take them experienced an additional two-hour delay into Thursday morning due to weather, then a minor mechanical issue [laughs] that was resolved by an onboard mechanic.
35:59
Huskies were supposed to take off before midnight, but wound up departing sometime after 1:00 AM. They arrived in Arizona around 3:00 AM locally, or 6:00 AM Eastern. Okay, those are all the details.
36:10
That's exactly the question, Kelly. So that's, 'cause my response to that was, "Okay, we're talking about 18 to 21-year-olds, still more than 48 hours away from tip-off. Thing or not a thing?" Not a thing.
36:24
I don't think so either Now listen, as a guy who has an Alabama ticket, I'll take any- Right... incremental edge I can get. [laughs] Sorry.
36:32
I do think this is one, though, we say not a thing now, but, like, this is where, a- and I'm not saying this should influence a bet necessarily- By the way, yeah... but listen to what people have to say about it today.
36:42
Like, yes- Sure... I'm interested to see, hear what Hurley ha- Hurley and the players have to say about it. By the way, if Alabama wins or if Alabama makes it close, everyone's gonna say it's 'cause of the plane.
36:52
Tired legs, Gil. They were exhausted. They couldn't keep up with Alabama. Mechanical issues. [laughs] Weren't for that, would've been a 30-point blowout.
37:01
I don't understand, though, wa- what, what other sporting event I feel like did we just have something li- like this happen with? I, I just don't... Wh- why do we have to... Like, why, why are they leaving so late?
37:11
Like, I, I don't... It feels late to me to be leaving for the Final Four. I- Yeah, all the other teams are already there. Yeah. Like, I, I don't know. Just, eh, we, we talk about it.
37:19
We, we talked about it all the time in the NFL with, [laughs] with the Europe, uh, the, the games in Europe, right?
37:24
About the teams choosing to fly, like, right after the, right after the d- uh, game the week before or later in the week, and how much that tripped up some of the teams.
37:33
I, just when I see this stuff, like, why did you choose to leave so late? Yeah. I mean, like, we... A- and don't tweet at me the kids got school to do or something like that. Come on.
37:41
[laughs] Well, listen, I'm glad they resolved the mechanical, uh, issues, and I'm glad they got there safely. We should probably say that as well. Yes. Um, but yeah, from, I, I don't think it's a thing.
37:50
It's also one of those situations, can you ima- imagine being, like, I don't know if I've ever experienced...
37:54
I've experienced a lot of rage in airlines, but never, like, when it's involving a tr- like, the trip of a lifetime, right? Like, you're going to the Final Four, like, how upset can you get, you know? Yeah.
38:03
Like, who you, who you supposed to get too mad at? Also, have you ever, like, flown on a plane where you, like, randomly end up on a, on a f- flight with, like, a women's collegiate basketball team?
38:12
That's happened to me a couple times. Yeah, yeah. [laughs] They're, they are unbothered by anything. Right. They're having the greatest time. It doesn't matter. So, like, I, I would imagine this would be the same.
38:20
I think you're probably, I hope you're right. Yes, I think you are. Um, all right, Masters next week. Cannot wait. Um,
38:28
as always with the Masters, we always say this, it seems like every year now, where it's like, okay, Rory McIlroy trying to get the career slam. This is the one that has eluded him.
38:37
And then there's the matter, of course, Rory McIlroy is the, uh, second shot on the board at 10 to 1. Jon Rahm's 12 to 1. But of course, the short shot of all of them is Scottie Scheffler. Four to one, Kelly.
38:50
Four to one. Now, I love Scottie Scheffler, right? Uh, he has one major. It is this tournament. Should it be four to one? Meh. I don't know.
39:03
But I also, I, from a, from a bookmaking perspective, I understand wanting to put this as short as possible- I do... and not have, uh, too much exposure to it. Um- Four to one at DraftKings shop around, of course.
39:14
Yeah, r- correct. Yeah. Yeah. That, that's important. Um, and yeah, [laughs] I, I don't know. A, a better question, will I be going back to a top 10 on him? I, I don't know.
39:23
Yeah, I, I'm not gonna be betting this outright price. R- Rory, b- I, I'll tell you what, though, I'd rather bet four to one on Sco- uh, on Scottie Scheffler than f- 10 to one on Rory McIlroy right now.
39:32
Can we play a little name association? Yeah. I'll just, I'll say the name, you just give me your immediate thought. All right. Scheffler, four to one. Uh, probably no, no. N- no bet for me. Rory McIlroy, 10 to 1.
39:42
Might be, Scottie Scheffler might be a top 10. Look, Rory McIlroy, no. If anything, he'll probably...
39:47
I, I wanna see what he does this week, Gil, but if it's like this week, I'll probably be looking to fade him next week. Jon Rahm, 12 to 1.
39:55
Jon Rahm, the only LIV golfer I would have any interest in backing in this tournament. Really? Yes. Not, not even the next guy, Brooks Koepka, at 18 to 1?
40:04
No, 'cause we, we, we talked a little bit about this on Long Shots. Ma- uh, make sure to check that out for Valero if you're interested in betting. We talked a little bit of Masters there as well.
40:11
Also, we have our Masters primer up at vsan.com. Get you set for all this. Myself, Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds all wrote for it. Um, here, like, here's the thing with the LIV guys.
40:21
What, y- I think you gotta remember from the be- from the betting side of things, what happened last year, right?
40:25
The books got kind of caught off guard by Brooks Koepka and the, and mainly Brooks Koepka, when I talk about the LIV golfers.
40:32
And I mean, he finished second in the Masters, won last year, kind of came out of no- kind of, kind of, you know, they kind of came out of nowhere, and they had these long odds on them.
40:40
I had a long ticket on Brooks Koepka. You're not seeing that this year.
40:44
The, the books right away with the Masters odds, it was, okay, we're pricing these LIV guys in like they're just, basically like they're in their prime PGA Tour form. What was he last year, about double this?
40:54
I mean, I had a, I had a, a f- what, a 50 to 1 or something ticket on him. Oh, shit. Wow. Yeah. Wow. Okay.
40:59
So, like, th- that's, I think it's very clear that the books are not, they are not gonna "fall asleep," quote, unquote, or let, let anybody, you know, get one by the goalie with one of these LIV golfers, 'cause they're all priced pretty, uh, pretty short, we- and shorter than they should be, in my opinion.
41:15
It just, it always bears re- repeating with Brooks Koepka. He has won five majors. Yep. Five. Three PGAs, two US Opens, and twice has finished second at the Masters. He's awesome.
41:28
[laughs] So it's not like he hasn't come close here. Yeah. No, I, I wouldn't have a problem with anybody betting him. Jon Rahm, I think, is the only guy I'll be interested in. All right, let's move along.
41:37
Xander Schauffele, 20 to 1. Lock in a top 10, top 20 bet right now. You know that, Gil. Come on. [laughs] You mean you're not gonna bet him to win it outright, Kelly? [laughs] No, I will not be. Jordan Spieth, 22 to 1.
41:47
Oh, no. Are you- No, I've no, no interest. Spieth, Spieth's been a little up and down this season. I can't really figure him out. I w- I won't have any interest at 22 to 1.
41:55
Did I just see above your head that Julius Randle is having season-ending surgery? No, no. Is this a breaking, uh, report there? Um, Viktor Hovland and Joaquin Niemann and Hideki Matsuyama and Ludvig Åberg.
42:08
By the way, I looked it up. That's called, that's called a, uh, that little, uh, circle above his, uh, his A- Mm-hmm... is called a o-ring. Okay. Swedish, and it's its own letter. Just wanna point that out. Oh, wow.
42:22
But all those guys are 25 to 1. Hovland, uh, Hovland I doubt I'll have any interest. Just another guy, another one of these, uh, PGA guys that has not really put toget- put it all together this season.
42:32
Niemann's the perfect example. I love Joaquin Niemann. I wanted him to stay on PGA Tour. He's, he's won a couple times here recently on LIV Tour, on the LIV. You would think he'd be about double this price usually.
42:43
I think this is the one, the perfect example. They wanna make sure not a lot of people are coming in on long numbers on Niemann. So at this number, no interest. Hideki, yes. Yes. I think this number should be longer.
42:53
Yes. I already bet him for the Masters, but I bet him for this week, too, Gil. If you're betting him this week, you gotta be adding a ticket right now, whatever number you can get on the Masters.
43:02
JT split with Bones, 28 to 1. Any thoughts? I have a, I have a ticket on him. I hope he gets better after the Bones split. All right, we're coming back. Hour number two, unscripted with Cragman Bill.
43:11
Cragamberger is next exclusively on a Numbers Game at VSAN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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