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Apr 4, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 4, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 4, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It's Kelly Bidlin, and I look like I'm falling off the screen. You notice that? You're fa- you- you're fading away, Gil. I should, I should move over a little bit. [laughs] If I go, where is it? This way?
0:29
I'm almost out there. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, what's happening, y'all? It's, it's a good way to mess with Savannah today, though, if you just wanna move an inch to the left every segment.
0:38
Yeah, yeah, or an inch to the right. Oh, yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, it's Friday. You know what that means. Falica and Fezzik, hour number two. Chris Falica, The Bear, from Fox Sports.
0:47
Uh, how many sports he'll have a bet on, there's no telling. Usually around three or four. Mm-hmm. Sometimes five. We'll find out from, uh, Falica. Final Four, of course, included in that, and Fezzik Fridays.
0:57
Steve Fezzik with always a bunch on his mind. He's got things to complain about. He's got things to, uh, point out. Uh, can't wait for that, hour number two. Dr. Bob will join us as well.
1:07
Oh, I have to text him a reminder that he has to come on. Don't wor- let me, let me do that right now as we're on air. Two weeks in a row. [laughs] Yeah.
1:13
He said, "Send me a reminder or I'll walk my kids to school," so, uh, he- Would you like me to finish the coming up? [laughs] No. No, no, no, I'll do it right now. Hold on. I got a reminder.
1:21
I'm saying it right now on air, reminder. Um, okay. Uh, Dr. Bob on the Final Four coming up here momentarily. Adam Burke, our managing editor at VSiN, all his thoughts, Final Four, baseball, and beyond.
1:31
And Dallin Cuff in moments from ESPN. Yeah. Dallin Cuff on video this week, too, because of- Stop it...
1:37
the past couple times we've had him, he's been in between, like, he'd be like, "I'd love to, I'd love to join, but I'm gonna be coming off a radio show, and then I gotta get to a TV show, and then I gotta go, like, probably play in some game."
1:46
The man is busy. He's busy. He's a busy man. Looking sharp on, uh, ESPN, so he'll, he'll, uh, chime in on the Final Four and, uh, maybe some soccer- Mm-hmm... as well. Uh, we'll get into that.
1:56
Um, and we have, uh, Are We Sure? Estamos Seguros? coming up momentarily. That's right. Uh, the Friday edition of that. I just wanna say this, though. Warriors beat the Lakers last night. Ooh, baby.
2:05
Did, did you watch every second of it like I did? Oh, I fell asleep, uh, early in the third quarter, Gil. Well, you missed a few things. One, let me just say this.
2:13
The Warriors beat the Lakers 123 to 116 in a game that the Lakers never got to one possession. Mm-hmm. They got as close as five.
2:21
Um, the Lakers were down six with the rock in the last minute, and then Draymond Green stripped Luka on his way up for a shot, and I j- [laughs] I just, this is why I'm bringing this up is for you because you made the Lou Dort bets.
2:37
Montasano made the Lou Dort bets. I was mad at myself for not making the, the Dort bets. Still may make it, but after last night, and Reggie Miller having a sexual experience watching this.
2:49
[laughs] It's just re- It's like, okay, Reg. I, I got it. You, you think he should be the defensive player of the year. He's up to minus 345 now.
2:57
Whether you, whether you agree or disagree on whether he should be the defensive player of the year, the fact that that one play and a reaction- Well, it's not just the one play.
3:08
It's because Draymond is also out there telling you, "Listen, this is my last shot at winning this. Give it to me." I hear you, but he was doing that the past two days.
3:17
These odds were, those odds remained the same until that game occurred last night. Yeah. That happened, and now he's down to minus 340. Minus 340. Uh, the aforementioned Dort is seven to one.
3:26
Mobley in between, still at four to one. Everybody else 50 to one or longer, including Shay, who's 150 to one, which a case can be made for Shay, too.
3:34
Um- This, I think this is still way more up for grabs than th- those odds in, in the game. I would, I would agree with you there.
3:39
I'm just telling you, that was, uh, that was Draymond center stage in a big game, and with that win, by the way, of course, the m- the more important thing is, that is a large win for the, uh- Oh, huge for the Warriors.
3:49
Yeah... for the Golden State Warriors.
3:51
Uh, as the Warriors now, now again, if the playoffs were to begin, it's still a Lakers, Warriors four five, with the Lakers having the, uh, home court 'cause they are one game better in the loss column. But
4:02
the Warriors are a, uh, a nine iron away from being the three seed as well, and they got the Nuggets tonight in a back-to-back. So that's a monster game tonight also. Nuggets 47 and 30 in the three hole.
4:14
Lakers 46 and 30 in the four hole. Warriors 45 and 31 now in the five hole. By the way, the Grizzlies 45 and 32, as, as are the T-Wolves right behind that, and the Clippers 44 and 32. It's just a log jam.
4:26
It really is, but G- uh, Gil, if you can get up to that three seed, any one of these teams that finishes in that three seed, and, and Houston, good on you for banking enough wins to get up to that two seed right now, and that you'll probably not finish worse than the three seed.
4:39
Um- Oh, they'll be two. Yeah, right. Yeah. They'll pro- they'll be two, but you get, if you possibly get to avoid... I mean, think about what the Thunder path could be, and I've got Thunder Western Conference tickets.
4:48
It could be Thunder verse, I'll say the Clippers 'cause I've been building up the Clippers so much, right? It could be Clippers.
4:55
It could be Warriors or Lakers before you even get to the Western Conference finals, and I don't wanna, you know, I don't wanna see either one of those teams right now. Uh, just wanna leave, leave that with this.
5:05
The Warriors now, since acquiring Jimmy Butler, are 20 and five straight up, but with both Curry and Butler in the lineup, right? 'Cause those guys have taken games off.
5:16
With Curry and Butler both in the lineup, do you know what the Warriors are? Uh, I don't know. One loss? 19 and two. Two?
5:25
That's, that's a record that should be, uh, getting the attention of everyone, including the Thunder. When Moses Moody starts, you know what the Warriors are this year? 24 and four. Point that out as well.
5:35
They- But 19 and two with Butler and Curry I, I'm still gonna go back to if they're gonna be, if they're gonna be a real thing, and by real, I mean Western Conference finals, NBA finals, right?
5:44
'Cause I think they're good enough to be there. It's Kuminga or Podziemski like he was last night. They've gotta be a consistent factor. No question. No question about it.
5:53
Um, by the way, Luka, just have you, has your opinion changed on a player quicker than it has on, on a guy like Luka? He just, first of all, he was O and six, by the way, from behind the arc. Broke a 104... What is that?
6:03
How many games in a row did he have a three? Was it 114 games in a row? I have to look that up. Uh, don't, don't hold me to that record To that number.
6:10
But, uh, he, he, 0 for 6 last night and then that, uh, Draymond steal at the end. Uh, okay, are we sure? Estamos seguros? Sports and sports betting edition. No intro. No intro.
6:21
I'm gonna start with, uh, okay, I'm getting rid of my Draymond question. I'm going back to the rest of the NBA awards. Oh, so what was the Draymond question?
6:27
Are we sure Draymond Green will win, win Defensive Player of the Year? Uh- We kind of already discussed. Well, no, I think it's not 100% sure, no. I, [laughs] I agree. Yeah. All right.
6:35
[laughs] Last of the awards question real quick. Uh, Mark Daigneault, are we sure he's out of the Coach of the Year race? Oh, I'm, I have a bet on it. 'Cause he's 17 to 1, Gil. He's 17 to 1.
6:46
I, I saw 14 to 1 this morning. [laughs] It's, it's, it's shortening as we speak. Six games left for the Thunder, and the one that they will have the shortest spread in is probably tonight at Houston, six and a half.
6:58
I, I still don't think it's a bad bet. If you wanted to get involved, because it does hit, we've, you, we've said it since the beginning. You made the bet.
7:06
I didn't make the bet, uh, which br- Drew brought it up at 200 to 1 a week and a half ago. I was talking about it before Drew and wasn't smart enough to make the bet. Right, yeah, yeah.
7:13
Um, but it, it just, it just hinges on them getting to 70. If they get to 70, I, I think he's winning it.
7:21
So if you think they can win the rest of these games, I don't, I don't think it's a bad bet still if you wanna get involved. Well- All right...
7:27
and let me, and let me just say this, that the way that the schedule works out, because I've, I've al- I've always said if they clear Cleveland, right?
7:34
What is the, what's the s- the phrase I use is the fly in the ointment is if they clear Cleveland with the last two or three games still re- remaining to go, do they sit players and therefore not get to 70?
7:44
But here's how the schedule works out. The meaningful games, the ones where they still have not clinched home court in a potential NBA finals, is at Houston tonight, and then it's back-to-back against the Lakers.
7:57
After that, when it might not matter, quote-unquote, anymore, it's Phoenix, Utah, and New Orleans. Yeah.
8:03
So it w- the way that the chron- the chronology of the schedule works out so 70 may happen no matter what, if that makes sense. Mm-hmm. No, exactly. Yeah. Exactly.
8:12
All right, uh, college basketball Final Four this weekend, we're all pumped. Are we sure any of these four teams left can win the NCAA tournament?
8:21
Yeah, I mean, I, I, I think Duke will, but if you ran a simulation of this 100 times, all four are winning at some point. Sure, any, uh, any of these four can win. There's no doubt.
8:31
Are we sure Cooper Flagg should be a plus 110 favorite to win Most Outstanding Player? Um, he should be the short shot for sure, best player, best team.
8:44
You're suggesting that it, that he should be longer than that, that it shouldn't be plus 110? Feels pretty dang short.
8:49
Yeah, well, I, I still say it's Cooper Flagg, 'cause if Cooper Flagg does anything, you know, equ- all things being equal and Duke wins it all, they're, they're not, they're not even sniffing anybody else, so it's gonna be him.
8:59
Are we sure Alex Ovechkin will break Gretzky's regular season goal record this season? [laughs] Seguro que si. [laughs] Um, we have, uh, we have seven games left for the Washington Capitals. Seven games left.
9:13
He needs two to tie, three to break. Your question is are we sure he's gonna break? Yeah. Um, by the way, they play the Blackhawks tonight, and the Blackhawks are terrible on D in terms of, uh, goal prevention.
9:25
Um, I am not 100% sure is the, my answer to that, but he could do it tonight also. Yeah. Like, he could, if he would do it with a hat trick tonight, that would be unbelievable.
9:36
By the way, though, I don't know if you caught this, the, the, really sort of the local scuttlebutt in the DMV, um,
9:42
Joe Beninati, uh, and, uh, and Craig Laughlin, who used to play for the Caps, Craig Laughlin, for those who are Caps historians, came over in the Rod Langway trade in the early '80s.
9:51
Caps got to their first playoffs with Craig Laughlin. He does color for the Caps. Who could forget?
9:54
This local broadcast team, and Joe, the, the, the play-by-play guy, has been their play-by-play guy since before Ovechkin even was there. Wow. Um, three of these remaining seven games, they don't have the broadcast for.
10:07
They're putting him in a booth just for archival and social media purposes, but the NHL has gone all in on this Ovechkin thing.
10:14
So every remaining Caps game, as long as this hasn't been broken yet, is gonna either be on an ESPN channel, a Turner channel, or NHL Network.
10:23
And so because of contract or whatever, three of the games won't be broadcast locally, and this for, like, Caps fans, if it happens on one of those three nights, is a complete travesty.
10:33
So they have to, NHL has to step in. Bettman has to step in and just say, "Okay, let them have their local broadcast." Yeah, it's always tough. It, it- It's, it's ridiculous...
10:41
NBA and NHL playoffs, I believe the NHL's the same way, right? You get into that same sort of thing where it's like the local guys have it up to a certain point. These guys have called ev- Yeah...
10:50
almost every one of his goals ever. You're not gonna let them do these? Yeah, it'd be strange. Stop it. All right, are we sure nobody in the NL West can catch the Di- Dodgers, Gil?
10:59
Because I see a lot of good records in the NL West. [laughs] The Giants are five and one and in third. [laughs] Five and one and in third? Um, it, we're not 100% sure, no.
11:08
I, as much as we love the Dodgers and the Dodgers are great, we are not 100% sure, 'cause they're, so the Padres are really good too. All right, give me a percentage that the Dodgers win the NL West. Oh, very small.
11:19
Oh, that they win the NL West? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, very, very high. Over 98%? No. No, absolutely not. Absolutely not. Anything else or we're after the break? All right, one quick one.
11:28
Are we sure Aaron Rodgers will be a member of the Steelers next season? I've asked this question roughly four times, I think.
11:33
Yes, because I think you nailed it early, which is he clearly wants to play for the Vikings, and he's, like, holding out any possible [laughs] hope that they change their minds. Yeah, we're, we're almost 100% sure.
11:43
Now that's over 98% that he's ending up with the Steelers. We'll come back. Dallin Cuff on the Final Four next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:02
Put your skills to the test in the Hoops and Horses Pick 'Em Challenge, brought to you by our friends at First Bet.
12:06
Sign up for free to play at vsin.com/hoopsandhorses, and make your picks for Saturday's marquee horse races and basketball match-ups.
12:12
Top pickers will receive First Bet vouchers you can use to bet upcoming races on First Bet, including the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May the 3rd.
12:19
From the hardwood to the home stretch, play now at vsin.com/hoopsandhorses. Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beat of the Book. Always appreciate the feedback from everybody.
12:28
Uh, Chris Hartman, "Question for crack yesterday, how does a man who carries a man bag full of items not travel with his own soap and toilet paper? Not an advantage play relying on hotel toiletries. I expected more."
12:40
He said, "ANG and the Potter, two of the best hours of the week. Thank you both." It's not a bad idea. Thank you.
12:45
I mean, i- if you're settling in for a long, long casino day session, I'm just thinking back to some of my poker days, like, those bags come in handy, and you throw a lot of things in there.
12:55
[laughs] Those aren't bad suggestions. Mookie, Mook Franchise, "Hey, Gil, Love, Love on the Spectrum dropped on Netflix, season three. I think you enjoyed the first two seasons. Amazing show." I love that show.
13:05
Life-affirming, Love on the Spectrum. Uh, thank you for that. Uh, this is from, let's see, oh, A. Rell, "Are we really sure, Gil, that the Giants under five and a half wins next season is going to happen?
13:16
Winston and Russ are major upgrades from Malik Nabers. Defense isn't that bad." Um, he said under five. It's actually under five and a half. Yes, I'm sure. It's my favorite one.
13:25
[laughs] Seriously, go through that schedule. They're not winning six. Just F- hey, man, I- [laughs]... nobody loves Jameis Winston more than me, okay? Yeah. And yeah, and we're, we're, we're going under.
13:33
This is from Hmm @kujawkhappy. He says, "So the NBA West team with the second-best record is 150 to 1 to win it all. Make it make sense." 'Cause they're young. They're young, the Rockets.
13:46
Okay, so this is a difficult conversation to have because it's, I could go, "Yeah, Gil, but so are the Oklahoma City Thunder."
13:52
Yeah, but- And it's just the ta- the star power of Sa- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the talent level of everybody I love is just one notch higher, and I, I don't trust the Rockets either, so. Uh, last one here.
14:03
Bentley, "I'm sorry, ANG is part of my morning routine, listening while I get ready for the day. Turned it on YouTube TV today, and Kelly is disappearing. I topped out at four bills before I changed things.
14:13
Congrats on not having to move furniture to unplug things." What does that mean? But I mean, thank you. Thank you, though, Bentley. I don't know about that last part. Appreciate it.
14:20
He's saying- [laughs] I don't understand the last sentence. Yeah. But thank you, Bentley, I appreciate it. I should probably edit. [laughs] Uh, real quick, last two are we sures before we get to Dallin.
14:27
Okay, are we sure- Yes... Shedeur Sanders will be selected in the first four picks? You know, I'm not sure, and I'll tell you why.
14:34
Like, I just randomly googled the first mock draft today, and it came up Lance Zierlein at nfl.com. You know where he has Shedeur going? Uh-oh. 24th on a trade. Cleveland trades up to get him.
14:44
I also believe I saw DraftKings repost a draft position for him at seven and a half. Yeah, man, I'm not sure at all about him anymore. It's getting interesting. Um,
14:54
and then are we [laughs] are we sure, now I'm trying to remember my wording on this. Are we sure- Yeah... the Bills should be the most expensive over on win total bets out there at DraftKings?
15:03
'Cause let me, I'll clarify. Oh, jeez. There's several 11 and a halves. They are minus 145 to the over- [laughs]... which is the most expensive over at the 11 and a halves.
15:11
You have no idea how long Kelly and I spent tr- tr- translating this to each other this morning. Okay, um,
15:17
I am sure that among those teams, they should be the most expensive to go over 11 and a half, but getting to 12 with a first place schedule is not, is, is always dicey. Let's be clear about that.
15:29
Because let's give them five and one in the division, which is being generous. But if you- I don't think it is. I think five and one is accurate. Okay. Yeah. So let's give them five and one.
15:37
You still, your, your remaining home games, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Saints, Bucs. Yeah, that's a lot. So- Well, Saints will be easy...
15:47
you, but you gotta, you gotta figure out a way to win eight games between your division games and those home games. Where you're gonna make your hay is on the r- on the other road games, 'cause that's easy-peasy.
15:57
Jets, uh, excuse me, pardon me, Falcons, Panthers, Browns, Steelers, Texans. So you go four and one on those. Anyway, you can cobble together 12. They should be an over on 11 and a half.
16:07
They should be the, the most favo- uh, the highest favorite of those teams, but it's never easy with that schedule. Never easy. Let's talk some college hoops.
16:15
Special numbers game investigation reveals that the Final Four begins tomorrow. Dallin Cuff from ESPN joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line to navigate and give us his favorite bets on that.
16:25
How you doing, Dallin? I'm doing very well, guys. How are you? Doing very well. Thank you for making time in between your busy schedule of TV and radio hits. Thank you. We always appreciate it.
16:34
Um, let's do these, uh, chronologically tomorrow, uh, beginning with the, uh, the appetizer, uh, this between, of course, uh, Florida and, um, and Auburn. Do I have that right?
16:47
Yeah, all of a sudden I'm, like, getting, I'm going nuts on it. Florida and Auburn. Florida a two and a half point favorite at the Alamo Dome tomorrow. Um, total 159 and a half. Your thoughts on this, sir?
16:59
Uh, I think, I think there's value in Auburn, honestly.
17:01
Um, you got a Florida team that I know is playing, uh, uh, they're not, they haven't actually, I don't know if they've topped out in terms of how they're playing, but I do think the narrative around Auburn and their struggles is a little overplayed.
17:13
I mean, they did cover the last three games. Now, I know against Michigan they were down nine with 10 minutes to go. They got 'em in the last 10 minutes and covered.
17:19
Um, they, they, they barely covered against Michigan State, but they were up, we were outside the number the entire game, essentially, uh, until the last couple possessions. So I think this Auburn team is, um,
17:30
they still can play at a higher level. We know that. I think Florida can as well, but I think they will learn from the, the loss they suffered in The Jungle. They will defend better.
17:37
They were terrible in that guys, game, guys, and they lost by nine handily. Um, they did not keep Florida out of the paint. Florida's able to get shots in the paint. They were spraying for threes.
17:46
They got played in transition. They, they did not play well, and they, Florida played without Elijah Moore. So I realize I'm giving you all the reasons why Florida should probably cover this game.
17:53
I just think, I think this is closer to a coin flip. You're gonna give me two and a half points, I'll take the two and a half points.
17:56
I think Auburn can, uh, undoubtedly win this game, uh, a- assuming Jani Broome is at 100%. And Jani Broome- Uh, and that's a good question... and Jani Broome says, no, no limitations, he says. We, we- Yeah...
18:06
we're to take him at his word, I would, I would guess? I think we kind of have to. I think that's [laughs] kind of the deal right now. Yeah.
18:12
You know, you gotta, gotta believe that this guy, w- if his arm falls off, then he's not playing. But other than that, I think the guy's in the mix. And if he's able to go at 100%, then I think that's the case.
18:21
He'll say whatever. We'll see it when the first few minutes, how he's playing. And, and in Graham, he did come back into that game against Michigan State, which does bode well as well. Yeah.
18:28
After saying apparently, according to reports, "I'm done here," he did show up Willis Reed style, and then hits that three. You, you could see him on the sideline. His, you could read his lips. He said, "I'm done."
18:36
I was like, "Oh my..." I was watching that game in a brewery on a huge TV, and I was like, "Oh my God, this guy's do- Are you kidding me?" Yeah. Then he was back a few minutes later. Yeah.
18:43
Um, well, he says no limitations, so he's a go. Florida two and a half point favorites again, uh, in the early game, and by early I mean, uh, the f- the f- what is that? 3:09 PM Pacific, start time 6:09 Eastern.
18:56
Houston Duke, the nightcap. Duke favored by five here. Uh, Duke, the short shot to win it all. Do you see it that way? And what would you do with the spread here? Total 137 against Houston. Same thing.
19:09
I'm on the dogs here, and I, I, I, I like, I like Houston and the number. I know it's moved, uh, and the money's coming in on Duke, or it's gone from four and a half to five and a half.
19:17
Um, a- a- but I think this is a situation where Houston is more than capable of winning this game.
19:21
And the, the level of physicality and the, how hard they're going to make it for them to run things through their pick and roll.
19:28
I'm very interested to see how, whether it's Cooper Flagg, Konknipple, Tyrese Proctor, if they're, when they're... Because you know this is gonna happen.
19:36
They're going to blitz the ball screen, and they need to keep it in the middle floor. You don't wanna play it on the side.
19:40
But sometimes they, they're very effective at clearing out the side and playing a two-man game on the side and, and having, you know, making hay of it. The, the Blue Devils are so...
19:47
But this, this is really hard to do against H- Houston. When they blitz that ball screen, are they all able to play out of it? And able to hit the short roll man?
19:53
And able to get it reversed and get that ball playing at the side, and you play in an advantage situation. I'm very interested to see how that hand- they handle that.
19:59
At times too I've, I, I wonder if, if Jon Scheyer wants to post Cooper Flagg and make them double, 'cause they're gonna double big to big, and believe that he can play out of it and through it, and then create advantage situations on the opposite side of the floor.
20:10
So I think it's a great chess match. I think this is a Houston team that they can shoot it more than, uh, teams in the past. That's my, that...
20:17
My question is not will they be able to slow down Duke offensively, as, as gifted as Duke is offensively. It really is, are they going to be able to score enough?
20:23
'Cause Duke's defense is elite, and they have positional size at every position, and that poses a lot of problems.
20:29
And they can switch a lot of screening action, keep the ball in front of them, and make you take contested shots.
20:33
And although Houston can make some contested shots, that's not exactly where they wanna live, is taking contested threes.
20:39
Um, they w- They, they're very good from three-point line, but they don't take a ton of attempts per game. They're like bottom hundred in the nation in three-point attempts per field goal attempt.
20:45
So I think this situation where you have value though in the five and a half points, I'm gonna take the five and a half points. I think Houston can win the game.
20:51
I think this is a one or two possession game, and Duke is, is finally tested, um, at a level we haven't seen since Clemson beat them in February. Talking to Dalen Cuff from ESPN.
21:00
Dalen, I leave you with this, and I won't put you in a bad position and ask you to rank all four of these coaches, but I'll just ask.
21:05
[laughs] In, in a crunch time situation, talking all four here, Golden, Pearl, Scheyer, Sampson. In a crunch time situation in a tight game, of those four coaches, who is the guy you trust the most to figure it out?
21:21
To do something to give his team that edge that is necessary to put them over the top? Wow.
21:29
Uh, that is a tough question, 'cause no matter what, guys, we are leaving this Final Four with a, with a new head coach to win a sh- first time head coach winning the championship at least.
21:35
Um, I think Golden will do things out of the box late. We saw that in Texas Tech. He's done it since USF. He will foul ahead of time. He will make the right decisions. Um, a- and I credit him. I credit Scheyer.
21:45
I think Bruce Pearl motivates his guys in a different way.
21:48
I'm gonna lean toward the old head here in Kelvin Sampson, and the reason for that is there is a culture about which Houston plays with, that when the, when the chips are down and they are struggling, these dudes lean into what they are and who they are.
21:58
And at the, at the, at the base level, they are junkyard dogs that will compete for 40 minutes. And every coach you talk to that plays them, it just feels and looks different.
22:06
So late game, when you're trying to draw something up, sometimes those dudes just find a way to make a play. So I, the question is, yes, do I, I trust Kelvin Sampson.
22:14
But it's the culture that he's built that I'm leaning into, that those guys sometimes, somehow just find a way a- and that's where I'm gonna go. All right. Appreciate it. Dalen, thank you so much for the time.
22:24
We'll be, uh, watching you this weekend. Thanks, buddy. Dalen Cuff, everybody. Appreciate you. Be well. @dalencuff, D-A-L-E-N-C-U-F-F, on the old Twitter machine. Mm-hmm. Yep.
22:33
Like it, like it when he wears those light suits. Yeah. Always, always looking sharp on ESPN. It's a good look. And we appreciate him joining us all season long. Yeah, man, for sure.
22:42
Adam Burke, we appreciate him joining us as well. That's a busy man, too. Our recent managing editor. Next, baseball, college hoops next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:05
Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. ANG as in Abe Numbers Game, the fine show you're taking in right now. You know, I was just about to say you've been mailing that in, but you just came through.
23:17
There you go. Well done. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. That's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. I don't know if you've ever met Kelly Bidlin before.
23:27
He's shrinking before our eyes. What I used to do is make up different things for what the ANG stands for, but that, uh- Yeah, that's what I mean... that gets dangerous sometimes.
23:35
Who knows what's gonna come out of my mouth? Um, let's see. Jo- we get tweets that beat the book. JoeC714, "Couldn't listen to you guys all week 'cause I was in Maine for work all week.
23:44
Messed up my morning routine, and it was c- [laughs] and it was cold." [laughs] Are we allowed to say cold A- A? No? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Cold AF? Yeah. Okay, there you go. He was in Maine complaining.
23:54
That's what- Maine is beautiful, by the way... what gorgeous building am I looking at? Have you ever been to Maine in the summertime? Does that say armory? What does that say? Oh, I...
24:02
Kelly's literally walking up to the... This, look at this guy. Look at this guy. [laughs] Look at his big hand. His face getting in the camera. Oh man, we've got a little too comfortable here. Uh, Joe C- That is crazy...
24:13
by the way, Maine in the summertime, gorgeous Oh, I went to Bar Harbor once Bar Harbor, man... one of the greatest weekends of my life. Just- Have the, have the lobster...
24:22
blueberry beer, blueberry pie, lobster nonstop, and just do it all over again for, like, three straight days. It was amazing. Uh, A.
24:29
Brown down in Jungleland says, "On behalf of all those who ta- who, uh, tail Drew on Dagnal200to1, Coach of the Year, can we just stop talking about it all together?
24:37
Your daily mention of the odds dropping has us dreaming [laughs] when in the end we'll all be fighting Kelly for a teddy bear at the CLV store." That's right. Can I get that teddy bear right there?
24:46
I'm looking for, uh, one of those snap bracelets, uh, this time around. Oh, yeah. That's, that's what I got my eyes set on. Maybe, maybe those, uh, those, uh, fluffy dice I can get right there.
24:54
Ladies and gentlemen, he is a part of the glue- Fluffy dice... that holds this, uh, operation together. His name is Adam Burke. Uh, he is a baseball savant. You can tell me no different.
25:03
The greatest baseball previews I've ever read in my life back at Bang the Book back in the day. He's our recent managing editor. He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, @betting...
25:12
Excuse me, skatingtripods, a classic Twitter handle for Adam. How you doing, Adam? I'm good. Uh, Portland, Maine, there's a bar called Mash Tun. Uh, they have a great beer list. My wife loved the bourbon sangria.
25:25
Uh, it's down on Wharf Street. Really, really great spot. I love Maine. It was awesome when we went there. It's, it's gorgeous. Absolutely. Did you just say bourbon sangria? That sounds fantastic. Yes. Okay.
25:35
Yeah, I can't do that. I'm gonna look into that. [laughs] He's gonna look. The problem is Adam is gonna look at it, you know, look into it now while we're doing this. Uh, all right, baseball season.
25:43
Um, what do you like today, sir? Uh, still working my way through the card here, but, uh, I guess I could throw you guys one that I do like.
25:51
I like the first five over four and a half, uh, in this matchup between the Nationals and the Diamondbacks. Jake Irvin is a guy that doesn't miss a whole lot of bats.
25:59
The Diamondbacks are swinging it really, really well to start the season, as you would expect. I mean, last year they led the league in runs scored, and I don't think this offense got any worse.
26:06
I mean, they basically just replaced Christian Walker with Josh Naylor, who's a, a pretty good hitter in his own right. So I think they're gonna get some run-scoring opportunities against Irvin.
26:15
And then Brandon Pfaadt, you know, while he's really good at missing bats, the command can be kind of hit or miss. Gave up a lot of hard-hit contact in his first start against the Cubs. Lefties hit him really well.
26:26
He's got an issue with the platoon split. Nationals should be able to throw six lefties at him today. So I like over a thir- the first five, excuse me, over four and a half in that Diamondbacks and Nationals game.
26:36
And we were talking, you and I, about this a little bit off air. This is not an official play from you.
26:40
But you, you are of the mind that if the Dodgers do trip up here [laughs] in the month of April, for God's sakes, it's April 4th, but if they do, it is most likely, the first time to trip up, let's say, it's most likely to occur this weekend at some point?
26:54
Yeah, I think so. I mean, I, I think they could lose tonight, to be honest with you. Jesús Luzardo added a sweeper this year, and it's a really, really nasty pitch, and he's got a tremendous arsenal to begin with.
27:03
He's just a guy who hasn't been able to stay healthy.
27:06
Uh, the one thing that's concerning is, you know, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has thrown the ball really well in his first two starts, but he is stepping up here from facing the Tigers last time out to facing the Phillies this time out.
27:17
Also, long way from home, first road trip in the US. Of course, they played a couple games in Tokyo to start the year. Uh, I think that the Phillies here, you know, are, are a decent look for tonight.
27:27
I was kinda hoping to get a little bit more on the price, um, but it is one that I may add to my card here throughout the day. But I understand why this line has moved toward Philadelphia.
27:36
I mean, and, and also, look, this may very well be an NLCS preview in this weekend series. Yeah. Um, Joe Peta's picks are coming up, by the way, after a two-day hiatus on the show. Joe Peta's picks are coming up.
27:46
Uh, and he points out, though, that the Freeman loss, right, Freeman being out of the lineup against a lefty tonight, not as big of a deal for the Dodgers as it might be against Nola and Sanchez, two righties, this weekend as well.
27:58
So that's a point we should probably make about the Dodgers-Philly series.
28:01
Dodgers 8 and 0, two away from, uh, being the betting casher in the race to 10, um, with a 2-0 head start, remember, earlier before the rest of the league began. Uh, to the final four, sir.
28:15
Your plays in either game are what? Well, I gotta say one thing real quickly on today's MLB card.
28:22
Uh, if, if you're looking through the card and you see Luis Castillo's name next to the Mariners, that is not the Luis Castillo. Ooh. That is Luis F. Castillo.
28:32
That is not the guy who's been a, what, eight-year Major League vet now. Different guy, same name.
28:38
So if you're out there looking at the Mariners and you see them as a big underdog today against the Giants and Justin Verlander, just keep in mind that's not the right Luis Castillo, because that's something that I think, uh, could definitely trip people up here today, seeing that big of a dog price, uh, against the Giants.
28:52
So I just wanted to throw that out there- That is, that is excellent-... for everybody... excellent- Little, little PSA... actionable or, or unactionable, whichever way you choose to play it, betting information.
29:00
That's good. Um, that, by the way, big cruel joke by the, by the Mariners to do that. Yes. Yeah, and a pitching change actually too.
29:07
Bryce Miller was supposed to go today, so they're sending out, like I said, the other Luis Castillo. Uh, as far as the final four goes, I mean,
29:15
look, you know, the, the Auburn-Florida game is a little bit perplexing because statistically these two teams are remarkably similar, right?
29:22
They're only separated by 0.4% in three-point percentage, about 0.5% in two-point percentage. They're both top 10 teams in effective field goal percentage defense. They have identical three-point percentages against.
29:35
Statistically, they line up very, very similarly. The difference is Florida's playing at a really high level, and Auburn hasn't really been playing at the same level here of late.
29:44
So I do think that Florida absolutely deserves to be favored in this game. I, I don't know what you're gonna get out of Bruce Pearl's team. I have a pretty good idea of what I'm gonna get out of Todd Golden's team.
29:54
Uh, so I mean, I think because of how similar these two teams are, and even their shot selection is pretty similar too, I, I kinda lean slightly towards Auburn getting points just because I think this is a super close game.
30:06
But to me, this is one where you take the Auburn money line and you don't even worry about the two and a half if that's the side you wanna go with, 'cause I think Auburn wins the game or the spread doesn't come into play at all.
30:15
What about game two? So in, in game two, I mean, I, it, it, maybe this is a little bit square, maybe this is a little bit, you know, kind of basic thinking, but I mean, I, I like Duke.
30:28
I mean, you know, Houston is a team that really the only thing they can do on offense is shoot the three. And if they don't shoot the three well in this big venue like the Alamodome, they're gonna get...
30:37
They m- they have the chance to get run off the floor in this game because Duke is so good offensively in so many different areas, and they're almost as good defensively as Houston is.
30:47
So I just, you know, the, the Cougars when they face elite competition, because they have no semblance of a half court offense for the most part, they really, really struggle.
30:56
And I think Duke has the opportunity to really exploit that here. Duke has tremendous size. Obviously, they can get to the basket. They can shoot it from deep.
31:04
Houston can only shoot it from deep, and if they don't do that, they're gonna struggle.
31:07
So I think Duke is the side there, despite the fact that, you know, you're laying five in a game where statistically there's not a whole lot of gap between the two teams.
31:16
Uh, so last segment I asked Dallin Cuff from ESPN to give me the coach that he trusts the most.
31:21
Of the remaining four coaches, Golden, Pearl, Shire, and Samson, who's the one that he trusts the most to make a, and I didn't say it this way, but a plus EV decision basically that will, that will be just enough of an edge, that give his team just enough of an edge to, uh, perhaps put them over the top.
31:37
He came up with Kelvin Samson. He did, he did concede Golden might have the most analytical viewpoint, but he went with Samson.
31:43
Uh, I didn't wanna put, get him in trouble 'cause he often has to interact with these coaches. You, I don't have the same burden here.
31:48
Tell me the coach of the four that you trust the least, that in a crunch time situation you're like, "Oh, no, not this dude." I mean, the least it, it has to be Bruce Pearl, right?
32:00
I mean, you know, he's had some great teams in the past that he really hasn't been able to get over the hump. And you know what I mean?
32:05
I, I also think that, you know, with Auburn, you know, with, with a guy that, you know, could be a little bit of a loose cannon in Baker Mazara, like, does he do something stupid in this game at some point?
32:16
Can Florida bait him into something? You know, will Pearl have the wherewithal to, you know, kinda calm him down, keep him sort of squared away in this game? I, I don't know.
32:25
But Pearl is a guy that I, I think of the four that are left here, I would trust the least. All right. Adam, um, the Cleveland Guardians tied for first in the AL Central at two and four. I mean- Yeah...
32:37
that's the way to spin it, I guess, at this point. Uh, any, any remarks you wanna make? We're obviously oppo on this. We'll be tracking it all year. But any takeaways from six games? Uh, well, I got a takeaway.
32:48
Uh, Petco Park is gorgeous. [laughs] Nice. I went there on Wednesday. It was my wife's birthday. There was a day game, so- Hey... quick 28-hour trip to San Diego. And, uh, you know, I mean, the park was fantastic.
32:57
The game wasn't, but the park was great and, you know, a really, really cool atmosphere. A lot of craft beer. That was great.
33:03
But the only other thing that I could really mention is watching Kyle Manzardo at first base, it's like watching a baby giraffe try to walk. He is really bad over there.
33:11
[laughs] So that's something that could kind of inhibit them- Yeah... you know, when David Fry is able to come back. But honestly, they just, the bottom of the order is terrible.
33:19
I mean, they have no depth in that lineup whatsoever, and, and that's something that they're gonna have to address as the season goes along. All right.
33:24
Um, I thought they were getting a defensive upgrade at first, uh, without Naylor, but we shall see as the season progresses. Thank you, Adam. Appreciate it, man. Have a good one, guys. You too.
33:33
Adam Burke at Skating Tripods, VSiN managing editor. Always love having him on the show. Dr. Bob, we hope, on the other side. Final Four next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Horse racing fans, get ready. VSiN at the Track: The Road to the Kentucky Derby is live today and every Friday leading up to the Triple Crown.
34:02
With key Derby prep races this weekend, we're breaking down the top contenders for this year's Run for the Roses.
34:08
Join experts Mike Samich and Aaron Halterman today at 2 p- uh, 2:10 PM Eastern on the VSiN YouTube channel at VSiN Live for expert analysis and insights. Don't miss it.
34:17
VSiN at the Track streaming live, 2:10 PM Eastern as we count down to the Triple Crown. Shall I run Burgundy through some tweets? Sure, Gil. Oh, I know how much you love that. Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book.
34:29
This is from a Martel, Martel J. "Profit X plug incoming." Oh, he likes Profit X. What do you got? "Not only do they have the tightest baseball money line spreads," he says, "they also have White Lotus exotics. Come on."
34:43
He says, "I got Belinda to die +450, move to +250. #movingmarkets." Come on. Profit X has that? Is, is it too late in the season for me to be like, "Whoa, spoiler alerts here"? I don't even know who the character is.
34:55
Oh, that's fantastic that they have p- that they have White Lotus exotics at Profit X. Have we, uh- Oh... I know we've talked about it, but have you, have you dabbled, uh, uh, with, with Kashi at all?
35:05
'Cause- No, I have not... didn't I just see that just got legalized in all 50 states? Which- Oh, I didn't see the latest... would include one Nevada. Yes, it would.
35:13
Let me check, let me check my list of- Let me get my- Let me check my list of states. Yes. [laughs] Nevada is on there. Well done. Mike Rouse, "Odds that Fezzik later references a movie today, -450." Oh.
35:25
"Odds on a Val Kilmer movie +110." I don't know if Fezzik does Val Kilmer 'cause Fezzik's, Fezzik's references are, like, even- The Big Lebowski's, like, -175 alone. [laughs] That's right.
35:36
I don't know, was he a Top Gun guy? Do you remember when, uh, producer number seven, Jason Connor- That's Dave Ross. Dave Ross works a Top Gun reference in every week.
35:43
My, my favorite Jason Conn producer number seven moment. Was he producer? Yeah, producer seven. Uh, when the new Top Gun, the latest Top Gun: Maverick came out, he was like...
35:51
I was like, "I haven't been to a movie theater in, in, like, years." And he goes, "You're not gonna go see Top Gun: Maverick, Gil?" I'm like, "No." And he goes, "Really?"
35:59
[laughs] He was so incredulous that I wasn't gonna go see that. Logic3227, "Yo, I went to Bar Harbor, Maine in the summer about 10 years ago. It was one of the best weeks of my life." Yes.
36:09
"Of course, only I would get into an argument with a complete stranger who was a Pats fan on a whale watching trip." Yeah, you probably shouldn't. That's awesome. [laughs] That's...
36:16
I, I just, I feel like that's what you do on vacation in Bar Harbor, Maine. What do you mean you don't like the Pats? Lobster, blueberry pie. Lobster. Getting in fights [laughs] on whale watching boats Cowboys_Cubs1, yo.
36:27
Hey, man. Country Club and K. Michael Biddlin never mails it in on Fridays when he does show up on Fridays. Let's go Cubbies. Sorry, Jason, if that is your real name, talking about Spreadapedia. Damn. #SoCalbias.
36:38
I don't know, that's unprovoked shot at Jason. Yeah, and me, I guess. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is a pioneer in the industry, um, and he works harder than any human being I've seen ever in this industry.
36:50
We used to go to, uh, not only did we live, uh, close to each other when, when we were in San Francisco together, but I got to witness how, how hard he worked just in person.
36:58
But also, uh, when we would go to, like, the MIT Sloan Sports Conference, everybody would be out hobnobbing, networking, and Bob would be like, "I gotta go to my hotel room and handicap 130 college basketball games.
37:08
See you later." Wouldn't see him for, till the next day. It's Dr. Bob, ladies and gentlemen, @DrBobSports, @DrBobSports on Twitter. How you doing, Bob? I'm doing good. I'm glad I could make it this week.
37:18
Sorry about last week. That's all right. You know, uh, I don't wanna take you away from, from taking your kids to school, man. I don't wanna be that guy. I want you to be that guy. [laughs] That's, that's not good, Bob.
37:31
It's not father of the year material right there. I, uh, your kids, kids would love a sick day on Friday. Long weekend. I, I assume you, I assume their mom would take them to school in your, in your absence.
37:41
Is that what I, I would hope? She would, but- Okay... she would. But I could say, "Uncle Gil says you can stay home today." [laughs] Don't, don't do that.
37:49
Um, what do you do, by the way, now that, so, so after this, right, so college football is not for months away, what do you do once this finishes now? Uh, take some trips with the family. There you go.
38:02
Try to help my wife clean the kitchen. Um, play a little tennis, maybe a little golf. I like it. Try to stay a little active. Would you- I try to lose about...
38:14
I, I, I, I go from about 220 to 210, and then I gain that weight back during football season when I'm sitting on my ass for 100 plus hours a week. All right. Okay. Well, let's try not to go potty mouth, but I hear you.
38:24
Um, okay. Oh, sorry. Oh, no, that's all right. It's, uh, it's okay. You were just- That was okay. Yeah, yeah...
38:27
you were just, you were just trending that way, so I just did a little- I feel like clean the kitchen- Yeah... was, uh, brought up very specifically. [laughs] Maybe she's upset.
38:35
So, a- and I just wanna, the last question before we get to your final four thoughts here is, do you, now that, now that j- transfer portal exists,
38:44
does this complicate your life in a way that you have to start college football, and college basketball for that matter, prep earlier, or does it make it moot and you start later now? No, I, I have to start earlier.
38:59
It used to take me about an hour and a half maybe to do, hour and a half to two hours to do every Division I college football team.
39:08
Now it's more like two and a half to three and a half hours, just 'cause I've gotta sort through all the transfers, and I've had to incorporate, it's not qui- it's not as easy as it used to be.
39:19
I mean, I have to incorporate talent ratings, um, you know, and then look how they did at their previous school, if they did have performance at their pr- previous school, if they did get in some games.
39:28
I h- I have to transfer that to how they might do in the current system they're in, et cetera. It's just, and coaches are moving around a little bit more than they used to. So where'd that coach come from?
39:37
How'd he do in his last, you know, his, his last, uh, stint? Did he improve the, improve the offense or improve the defense? Were they better, worse, et cetera? So I, it's just a lot more factors now than there ever was.
39:47
It just takes me longer to do each team, so starting earlier is, is, is, is what I need to do now.
39:52
Okay, let's go to the final- And I think it's actually helpful, 'cause I think I'm better at making those adjustments than the market's been, and my season win totals have done well over the years, as you know, and they have done well in recent years too.
40:03
Yeah, I, I would actually corr- I corroborate that.
40:06
I think your, you know, w- your, your ability to evaluate, um, you know, the absence of a player and the inclusion of a player just becomes that much more on steroids now to me, it would seem. Yeah.
40:18
Let alone, let alone in-season injury adjustments. All right. Florida, Florida, Auburn. Florida favored by two and a half, 159. First of the two national semifinals. Your thoughts on this one?
40:29
Well, you know, I mean, obviously it depends on Jani Broome, right? I mean, if he's 100%, then I would be betting on Auburn here, getting two and a half. I don't think if he were 100% the line would be two and a half.
40:40
I think it'd be one and a half or maybe two. Um, my ratings favor Florida by 0.6 points if he w- if Broome was 100%. Now, he's not 100%. He's got an ankle injury, a knee injury, an elbow injury.
40:54
How much that hurts his level of play is a guess. Um, I, you know, if, if, if they're one bucket worse, if his injuries cause them one bucket, that's two points right there.
41:06
Um, that gets you to two and a half from my 0.6. Um, my guess is that it's one to one and a half point. He could be, he could be fine.
41:14
He could play his normal game, and if so, I think Auburn would be a good bet in that case. Hard to know.
41:18
I think one to one and a half points would be about the adjustment I'd make, and it's, that gets me Florida by one and a half to two.
41:25
Um, not enough level to be playing, not enough value to be playing the game, and there's a lot of uncertainty.
41:31
You could say, "Well, you know, maybe it's a, maybe it's a, maybe it's a money line play if, if Auburn, if he, if he's good to go and he's 100%," then, you know, then Auburn might be a play on the money line.
41:42
'Cause there's more variance in a situation like this, and if there's more variance, then the money line underdog play becomes a better value play than the spread.
41:50
'Cause if he's not on his game and he's really struggling, then plus two and a half doesn't matter, they're gonna lose by, by seven or eight maybe. So, um, I, I would probably rather have Auburn here.
41:59
I'm not betting the game. Don't recommend betting it necessarily, but if you are gonna bet Auburn, I'd, I'd consider the money line just 'cause of the variance involved in, in Broome's injury. I like it.
42:07
Plus 130 is what we're showing. Always shop around. And then Duke, five-point favorites over Houston, total 137. Yeah, I do have a play here. Um, I took Houston plus five, uh, and I lean, lean with the under.
42:21
It's 136 and a half or so. Um, my ratings have consistently [laughs] been on Duke in the tournament, and I've had them as bets a few times. Um, but not in this case.
42:32
I mean, Houston, I think is, I think it's gotten a little too...
42:34
I think the blowout of Alabama has, has enhanced the line a little bit, um, which is great because I was, I was on, uh, I was on Duke and that game is the best bet, so I was happy for that.
42:44
But I think now the line's gotten a little bit out of hand. Um, Houston's the number one rated defense in the nation in points per possession allowed, adjusted for opposing offenses faced.
42:53
I think they're capable of slowing down Duke. Duke's got the number one rated offense in the nation. Um, but they've only played three games all season against top 20 rated defenses.
43:03
They have not faced many good defenses. And in those three games against top 20 defenses, those being Kansas, Clemson and Auburn, they lost two of those three straight up. And they lost to Kansas and Clemson.
43:15
They beat Auburn by six. So they haven't really done well against the three, and they dominated bad defensive teams. So maybe their, their great offensive rating is skewed a little bit toward, toward, you know,
43:28
doing, doing well against bad defensive teams. Um, but they've lost two of the three against the top 20 defenses they faced.
43:34
Now Houston's had a few losses against elite offensive teams too, so it's not like they're immune to, to, you know, to, to losing to, to elite teams. I mean, they lost to Auburn, Alabama.
43:43
They split a couple games with Texas Tech, who are all top 10 offensive rated teams. But they've also won five games against top 10 rated offensive teams, and all three of their losses were by five points or less.
43:53
So they've been able to hang in these games against elite offensive teams. And I think the key to this game is the three-point shooting. Duke has an elite two-point defense, one of the best in the nation.
44:05
I think they're second in two-point, uh, defense allowed. But they are, they are susceptible to three-point shooting though.
44:11
They have, um, they've got a good three-point defense overall, thirty, 30.8% season, but they've given up twenty-four percent to, to the ten bo- worst than average teams they faced, and 33.2% to the other 28 games they faced.
44:23
Okay. So they are susceptible to some good three-point shooting teams. So I think, I think the matchup's good. I took Houston plus five. I make it three, and I lean toward the under. Thank you, Bob. Chris Velika next.
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