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Apr 4, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 4, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 4, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Yeah. It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hey.
0:21
Uh, [laughs] hey. [laughs] Um, Chris Fallica coming up, Steve Fezzik coming up. It's our favorite hour, the... I don't know, crack is my, is a favorite hour, too. It's hard to choose between these two hours.
0:33
It's hard to choose, and any hour that features Kelly Bidlin as well. Oh, that's- All those- Oh, thanks, man... all those hours. What a guy. Well, 'cause as I was saying that- What a nice guy...
0:40
then I was thinking to myself, I was like, "That's not very nice," 'cause it's, yeah. Um, we got tweets @beatingthebook.
0:45
Bruce Dobbigan, "Montrealers all used to go to Wells Beach in Maine for the shuffleboard and saltwater taffy. I left my fillings there," [laughs] he said. [laughs] Thanks, Bruce. Little TMI, but okay.
0:57
What, what year is this? I don't know. Michael Burns, [laughs] "Boothbay Harbor, Maine, lobster at the dock on the picnic table. Unreal." Yes. Boom. Boom.
1:06
Uh- Does anything get better too than a q- a g- like Maine, a lobster roll in Maine right on the side of the road by the water? [laughs] Nothing. PAW is a little upset with the Maine talk.
1:17
He says, "Show's becoming too bougie." [laughs] He's like, "Hope it returns to form. Long summer coming." But I was talking about polo the other day- Yes, you were talking-... so it could be worse...
1:26
you were totally talking about polo. I don't know what's... I, uh, PAW, I'm with you. I don't know what's happening. It's a g- uh, it's a loose thing. I can't, I can't rein it back in.
1:33
Chris Fallica, he's bougie, uh, ladies and gentlemen, comes to us from his, uh, castle in Connecticut. You know him as The Bear. He, uh, runs The Bear Pod empire over there at Fox Sports.
1:43
You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A, to give us horse racing picks, soccer picks, college basketball picks, and then the good stuff, NFL draft. How you doing, man? I- I- I'm, I'm good.
1:56
Now, you had me dreaming about heading down to Clinton, Connecticut, for the, to the Lobster Landing for a good lobster roll. Man, I don't even know what that is, but it sounds fancy. Sounds great.
2:04
[laughs] It, it's not as bougie as Maine- [laughs]... but a little, little red shack right on the, on the coast in Clinton, Connecticut. [laughs] I love that comment, "Show's becoming too bougie," the Maine talk.
2:13
When we get JVT back on, he'll crush us all, don't worry. It's the polo over here. Yeah, exactly. All right, let's- Or, or- Let, let's start with the, the Fallica brand staples. Let's start with horse racing.
2:22
What do you have? Yeah.
2:23
Uh, we, unfortunately last week, Cornicopian did not get home, so where, where our great numbers that we have that Caesars, William Hill wouldn't let you bet, that they would've won those bets on, uh, they, yeah, he, 45 and one or even faster than that, didn't get there.
2:38
So, uh, we'll see. Maybe he'll get to the Preakness and win that.
2:40
But tomorrow, the things I can bet on, uh, the Gazelle S- the big card at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial tomorrow, uh, and the Gazelle Stakes is tomorrow, which is a three-year-old filly race.
2:50
A- and that's the race I have a bet in. Um, I bet the number four horse. I like the number four horse early on. Um, Saffie Joseph's horse, who is the second time out against winners in this race, six to one morning line.
3:02
Uh, I, I think this horse was much the best, uh, at Colonial la- last race out.
3:07
A- and I think if you look at the favorite, Ballerina Duero, who's even money for Chad Brown, that horse is kind of pace dependent, and it doesn't look like there's a ton of pace in here.
3:16
So I think, uh, early on, the number four horse gets the jump on Ballerina Duero and, uh, pulls the minor upset. Okay. My response to, "We're too bougie," is, "What are your horse racing picks?" [laughs] Right, exactly.
3:27
Uh, okay. How about soccer? You got Everton in a double chance here with Arsenal? Yeah. I, I, I do. I mean, Everton is a team that's lost once, uh, in their last 10 Premier League matches.
3:36
Obviously, uh, lost 1-nil to, to my squad, Liverpool, uh, the other day in a, in a, in a good match. Uh, they played much better since I said, since Moyes has come over.
3:46
Arsenal's not a team that's gonna be scoring a lot of goals. Um, Everton tend, tends to defend very well.
3:52
Uh, it feels like this could be a, uh, a 1-1, a, a nil-nil, and maybe even Everton pull out a, a 1-nil, uh, type win. It's just gonna depend on how they bounce back from, uh, the Merseyside Derby the other day.
4:04
Uh, Everton probably out of, uh, out of, uh, Everton staying up, Arsenal really, no real chance for the Prem title, but, uh, a win would put a little bit of pressure.
4:12
But I, but I think Everton at home, uh, minus 105 with a double chance is the way to go. Okay, and I'm sure you heard it. You and Dr. Bob are simpatico. You like the Houston Cougars plus the points as well against Duke.
4:22
Y- yeah. I w- I was listening to Dr. Bob, and, you know, I, I can't believe you're taking him away from the Dad of the Year award. That- I know [laughs]...
4:29
that's very, even though he didn't sound too broken up about not having to take his kids to school. But yeah, I like Houston in this game. I think the line is, is a little bit disrespectful, and Dr.
4:37
Bob, uh, hit on it too, just the way that Duke blew out Alabama. And, and we knew, everyone knew Alabama was gonna shoot, like, one in a million from three-point range after they lit it up against BYU. Yeah.
4:50
That was the easiest thing to see coming in, in, in the world. But if... you kind of hit on, hit on it too. Like, you look at the ACC and you look at the Big 12, the ACC was down bad this year. Yeah, they ran through it.
5:03
Big 12 was a much better conference. Houston ran through that. It got seven wins against top 15 KenPom teams this year. Duke's got four.
5:12
A- and if y- if you look at, like, the comparative ratings and y- you take a look at, like, KenPom, take a look at Warwick, you take a look at, like, Haslam, the ratings got this game at a pick.
5:22
Um, I, I think the way that game went last year in the Sweet 16, I know it's a completely different Duke team, but Duke, uh, uh, Houston was up six when Shed got hurt in that game.
5:31
They're probably gonna win and probably gonna go to the Final Four last year. A lot of those players from Houston are back. They scored 35 points in 27 minutes after Shed got hurt.
5:41
I think there's a li- a little bit of a we, we have another opportunity to, to, to advance to the national championship game with a win over Duke. Uh, I, I like Houston plus the five and a half here.
5:50
And how are you betting the other game? I'm betting, uh, I'm betting it, uh, Florida team total over 81 and a half. I, I, I, um, I still, I'll believe it when I see it. With Denai Broome, uh, being healthy.
6:03
It did not look good. Even when he came back in the game, he grabbed the rebound with, with the left arm, one-handed, flung it down, uh, hit the three. Uh, we'll see.
6:12
So I bet, I bet over 81 and a half Florida team total 'cause I think obviously if he's gone on the defensive end, uh, that will really help Florida get the second chance opportunities.
6:23
And I think if you can find a, an under 29 and a half, I, I know exists here, uh, Broome combined points and rebounds, that might be something to look at as well. Okay.
6:33
Uh, let's go to Major League Baseball, and of course, uh, as famously as the Dodgers out to an 8 and 0 start and the Padres out to a 7 and 0 start- Yeah...
6:41
you have the Atlanta Braves who are out to the old 0 and 7 start. Yeah. Didn't see that coming necessarily. No. You have a bet. No. Yeah, I, I know they're going to get Spencer Strider and, and Ronald Acuña Jr.
6:53
back, but 0 and 7 a- and it's 162 games, sure, but they made the playoffs last year with 89 wins, and we had that great number on them to miss the playoff last year, and they just got in.
7:03
So now you're already spotting the Dodgers and Padres, two teams that you're gonna be obviously competing with one of them for a wild card spot, uh, y- you're spotting them seven win- seven wins.
7:13
Like, like, that is a l- y- you gotta go, what, 89 and 55, whatever it is now, uh, the, the rest of the way to, to get, just get to 89. And Giants obviously look better with, with the new manager.
7:26
Arizona will be better over the course of the season. You've got the Mets and the, and the Phillies in the division as well that you're in. Like, plus 180 to, to miss the playoffs on the Braves, I, I think, uh...
7:37
We'll, we'll see what hap- what, what happens to them. I mean, they got the Phil- y- they got a, a series in Chicago coming up with Cubs.
7:43
Uh, they drop another couple of games here, I think you're gonna see that number drop even more. And the always fun worst record market. You have a, uh, you have made a bet there as well. Yeah.
7:52
I b- I bet, I bet the Rockies plus 150 to have the worst record. Uh, the rotation is not good.
7:57
At some point, uh, they're gonna bring it, be bringing up a bunch of prospects like Zach Bean, uh, d- once they can control the, uh, the contract time a little bit more. The White Sox might just be okay this year.
8:08
Uh, they may not be, like, 49 wins bad, but, but I think if you get the Rockies at plus 150, like I said, in a division with the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and, and Diamondbacks, like, there aren't very, very many wins to come by in that division.
8:21
Kinda feels a little bit like the White Sox were last year, uh, in, in the Central with Tigers and the Twins and, uh, and, and the Guardians as well. Okay, I saved the good stuff for last. The best stuff for last. Yeah.
8:32
Um, 'cause there's something about the NFL Draft when we start talking about it, it just, it just moves everything else to the side.
8:39
Some position market bets you have made, starting with Jaxson Dart, uh, of course, quarterback out of Ole Miss, largely considered to be the third quarterback to go, but who knows in the end.
8:51
Uh, 24 and a half is his number draft position. You went which way? I went under. I, I, I think, again, will he be the second quarterback off the board? Who knows?
9:00
Depending on, uh, what mock and what you believe about Shedeur Sanders. But, uh, wouldn't the Pittsburgh Steelers be a very logical spot, I think, at 21?
9:10
Even if they sign Aaron Rodgers, you need a quarterback moving forward. Uh, may- maybe Jaxson Dart falls there. But I, I think he's the guy where there's a lot of buzz a- around him right now.
9:20
So I did go under, uh, 24 and a half, and, uh, and I saw some pretty short numbers, like a plus 350 or a plus 400 on him, uh, being the second quarterback taken, which I wouldn't play that just 'cause it seems like that's not fair.
9:32
But I, I, I do think, uh, he is a, a, a selection in the top 24 picks.
9:37
[laughs] This one definitely caught our eye because there's a lot of mocks that have the Raiders going Ashton Jeanty, but his draft position is nine and a half, and you go over here. I did go over just because I, he...
9:48
The, the Raiders have a ton of needs. A- and I know Pete Carroll's an old school guy who likes to run the ball a- and a running back. But if you're the Raiders and you have all of these needs, you, you can take a, a,
10:00
a, a Jaylen Walker fr- from Georgia and o- an offensive lineman. Maybe you take a... You don't gotta take a tight end because you got Brock Bowers. But they have so many needs.
10:08
Wouldn't you rather take either an offensive lineman or a pass rusher?
10:12
And then at the top of the second round, this is a deep running back draft, whether it's TreVeyon Henderson, someone who Chip Kelly is familiar with from Ohio State, uh, Caleb Johnson from, from Iowa, Don Sampson is there.
10:23
It feels like the, the bang for your buck taking a, an impact player at a position other than running back at six, and then taking the running back at the, with the fifth pick of the second round.
10:33
That seems like the way to go for me. I mean, m- and it allows you still to potentially have Jeanty go to the Bears at 10, which I still wouldn't do either. Yeah, Raiders at six, by the way, just to clarify.
10:44
And, uh- Six, yeah, but not 10... if it were anyb- if it were anybody but Pete Carroll, uh, [laughs] you know, this would seem obvious. But who knows? Who knows what he's thinking. I'm betting that. I, I'm taking Chris.
10:54
You like that, the over. When, when, when Chris Fallica comes on- I think with plus money on that, I got plus 140 on over nine and a half. I like it. I like it. I, I, I think that's a good bet.
11:00
I agree with, I agree with the Raiders. Got too much else to do. They shouldn't be worried about running back. And if Chris Fallica's telling me that, who's watched way more Ashton Jeanty than I have- Yeah.
11:09
No, I agree with all that... I'm following along. Y'all just gotta convince Pete Carroll of that.
11:12
[laughs] Great, great, great running back, but I don't think the drop-off is that, is that far as to the guys we were talking about who they could get in the top round here. Makes sense.
11:20
Lastly, Colston Loveland, tight end out of Michigan, 19 and a half. Under. I, I went under on this. I mean, the, the Colts are mocked basically in every draft to take a tight end, whether it be Hammer or Tyler Warren.
11:31
Uh, we saw the impact that Brock Bowers had on an offense last year. Uh, you got Anthony Richardson in a quarterback situation where you need an offensive player at security one.
11:39
It, under 19 and a half for me on Loveland. Spectacular segment, Christopher. Thank you as always. Thank you, sir. The Bear, El Oso, right here. Fezzik next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:58
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting networkThe VSiN Summer Special is here. From Aug- from Augusta, rather, to the NFL Draft, MLB, the NN- NBA, and NHL playoffs. Let me say that again.
12:09
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12:15
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12:29
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12:43
Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback. This is from, boop, da-doo da-doo, David J, "I literally watched the Arizona-Washington over +4.5 in first five line drop from +108 to -106 in real time after your chat."
12:58
Oh, talking to Adam Burke after the chat on the show here with, uh, me and Kelly. "You've made it. Sincerely, a fan." Uh, David J, a fan, he says. This is from, uh, JC, "Definitely getting too bougie.
13:11
Get some hyphy juice and Hennessy and let's get back to normal. Go Dubs." Um, [laughs] I'm with you, man. The Maine talk, it's out of control. Speaking of which, Newseg, "Nothing better than the seafood in Maine.
13:21
Gotta try the seafood pie at The Steakhouse in Wells, Maine. The steak is obviously incredible, but that seafood pie is amazing. If you wanna get away from people for a while, Maine is the way to go."
13:30
Thought you were gonna say seafood pie again. And Rick Olier, "Hey, guys. Happy Final Four weekend.
13:35
I'm sitting here sipping tea with my pinky out and wanted to know your thoughts on high-end art and perhaps the best route to take my yacht while traveling the Mediterranean," quote, or excuse me, hashtag, "a bougie game."
13:47
Yeah, I don't know what's happened today, and yesterday with the polo. Um, it's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin here as well, of course, behind the glass, because it's time for Fezzik Fridays.
13:56
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. I was gonna take a sip of water, but it's too quick.
14:09
Ladies and gentlemen, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest, it's Steve Fezzik in the hizzy.
14:15
Hearing about you guys talk about Maine, I just wanna go ahead and re-watch Mystic Pizza and head to New England. Well, there's a cash. Movie reference is cashed. There it is.
14:26
I guess that's a movie reference, 'cause he said a movie's name. Um, how are you, sir? You good? I'm, I'm excellent. Getting... I'm thinking to myself, Gilly and I are gonna play tennis right after. Yes.
14:34
And Gilly was compromised the last time we played. We split- Yeah... and you were, like, um, the injury report, um, some digestive issues. I'm fine now. And now you're fine, and you're looking thinner. Yeah.
14:46
And, um, money's pouring in, I guess. [laughs] You know, you know what's better than Ozempic? Canker sore in your mouth. I have a- It'll make you not eat... I, like, have a little pimple underneath my nose- Oh, man...
14:56
and it's, like, unbelievably painful. Uh, you wanna s- [laughs] you wanna start with, uh, with, uh, Dr. Bob and his work ethic as a- I love Dr. Bob. Yeah.
15:05
Because he's like, he doesn't, he doesn't need to, like, price every single game on the board, and I'd be the first to tell him, like, "Hey, you know what?
15:14
You know, you don't have to have, like, 38 plays," [laughs] you know? And, and, and, like, and, and no human can do that, but he does it. Yes. And by contrast, I, this is my pet peeve.
15:23
I'm gonna throw people under the bus. I'm sorry. One of the things, like, I see, like, it's the end of August, right?
15:28
And here comes, like, a big group of, um, um, betting specialists or someone in the gaming industry, and they're going out, and they're d- they're having a binger in Vegas, like, like, like, one week before the season starts.
15:39
Right, right.
15:39
And here everybody is, you know, playing their roulette, in their keno, pulling their slot machines, and I'm like, "Why would I ever wanna, like, you know, be associated with or purchase that, th- those persons' picks- That's right...
15:52
that are basically coming out and saying, 'We are complete square balls, and we're just here to, like, have a good old time and gamble like dumbos'"?
15:58
No, I mean, i- honestly, I, I gave the example of the, when we used to go to Sloan, and the g- and the sports betting part of the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT years ago, we would sort of go off to the side and, and do our own thing.
16:11
Um, and Bob would never be with us because Bob was always back at his hotel room doing stuff. And I just remember one year being like, "Maybe, like, not do the sunbelt tonight and just, like, come out?" Yes.
16:22
And he, it was, like, against his DNA to even consider such a thing. Well, and just think about the Sloan is in March.
16:27
What, what nor- rational human being that actually bets for a living would possibly co- you know, give up, you know- Yeah... four days to, to travel to M- to Boston in March versus- And, and-...
16:39
it's a big money-making thing... yeah, end of February, but he was on a panel. It's the same thing. Same thing. And he, he'd only go 'cause he was on a panel, right? Yeah, yeah.
16:44
Otherwise, he wou- he wouldn't even go to begin with.
16:46
Um, you have another pet peeve, sir, which, uh, I always like going through your tweets, and you use, things make you angry, some things an- make you super angry, but, uh, you said, "My pet peeve, guys who don't wanna lay big vig in a hockey or baseball game," since we're on the subject of your pet peeves.
17:02
Um, "And then try to engineer clever, cheaper vig options like betting the team to win in regulation in hockey or to not bat in the bottom of the ninth in MLB." Yeah, it, it drives me bonkers.
17:14
W- the reason being is that, I mean, these bookmakers, it, it's just a chart, right?
17:19
So, like, if you're, you can bet, like, a team to, uh, a favorite minus 170, or you can bet that home team to not bat in the bottom of the ninth and get a much cheaper price because they could win in the bottom of the ninth, or they could win in the bottom of the 10th, and basically it, uh, whatever it's worth, 50 cents, 55 cents, it's, it's all being priced correctly.
17:38
So don't think you're getting a bargain to play an alternative line like that on a big favorite. You're still playing the big favorite is where I'm getting. It's- Okay...
17:47
y- y- I mean, you're not laying a big vig, but you're still paying the tax.
17:50
You pay it one way or another, and I would argue you're paying probably more of a tax going to this alternative because at least when you're just playing the money line, if you like, if you like the Tigers today, just play them, you know, minus the 240 or whatever the price is.
18:04
You don't have to try to get too cool for school and find a cheaper way to play it. Okay. There are exceptions to everything, though, with Steve Fezzik. You will find this out about him.
18:11
Uh, yes, he hates parlays, but there are some time, there are some instances where parlays are justified, and you, sir, one of those justifications is a correlated parlay, and you have one in one of the two Final Four games.
18:24
Yeah, so I'm gonna pull back the curtain a little bit because, like, I'm, I'm very much anti-parlay when the two plays have nothing to do with each other. Um, base winner and I go back and forth on this.
18:34
Have, you know, having said that, if you're a winning player and you put everything in parlays, your ROI actually spikes through the roof. Your, your variance does also, so you could make the case that way.
18:42
You're gonna make more money per dollar wagered, and you can circumvent some limits. But, um, pulling back the curtain, so we have a situation here with Duke-Houston.
18:50
I think it's, the, it, there's a double correlated parlay here. Hmm. If I come to you from the future and I say, "Gil?" Yes? "There were 120 points scored in this game." Yeah. Who would you like to bet, Duke or Houston?
19:01
I'll, I'll take the points, thank you. There are 155 points scored in this game. I'll lay the points, thank you. So that's one correlation, that clearly the higher scoring the game is- Yeah...
19:09
the more likely Duke, you know, boat racism. The second correlation's a little sneaky. Todd Wisniewski's a king at this.
19:15
We're all good at it, obviously, is that if Houston is covering in the end game, Houston will probably be down one, two, three, or four points, or up one, two, three, or four points, so there won't be fouling in the final three minutes immediately.
19:28
The n- the non-foul zone, we call it. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah.
19:31
By contrast, if Duke is ahead and covering by six, seven, eight, nine, 10, that's gonna be a very long final three minutes, and you're gonna probably get an extended game, and the g- so it would be more likely the game will go over.
19:44
So Duke is correlated to the over, and Houston clearly correlated to the under, so you've got the great pioneer had just come on saying he likes Houston and he l- and, and he's, he's looking to the under, so the correlated parlay makes a lot of sense.
19:56
Put me down for that, Kelly, as an official play. Take Houston plus five parlayed to the under 136 and a half. Nice, uh, nice tease for the old, uh, G Bank official best bets coming up. Nice to do that.
20:07
And for those who missed, again, for those who are newer to better, new- newer to betting who might have missed what we were talking about there in the middle, I, I think, I think the, the Houston plus the points with a low total makes sense to a lot of people, and if the total were 30 points higher, Duke minus the points makes sense.
20:21
What we were referring to there in the middle was the end game situations in college basketball, in, in pro too, but college it's really pronounced, which is when a game, when, when a team is beating another, let's say, by four points, right?
20:35
As the clock is winding down, there is no incentive to foul. They believe in their minds, "We just get a stop. We get a score. We get one more stop. We can win this ball game."
20:44
But there is a, and we all know this from college basketball gone by more than we do recently, but certainly when it's an elimination thing and certainly at a tight here in the Final Four, if you are down 7-8, then it's the foul fest.
20:56
Then it's the, okay, in order, it's we gotta Jim Valvano this now. Ex- exactly. Jim Valvano famously invented this, um, for those who weren't around or, uh, back in 1982.
21:08
Um, Valvano, in the first round of the tournament, his team trailed Pepperdine with, like, a minute to play, down eight. That's right. Started hacking.
21:15
Pepperdine's 85% free throw shooter missed two of them, and NC State should have been eliminated in that game. That's right. They won in double overtime. Was that the double overtime game? I can't recall. Yeah.
21:25
I do remember there was, like, a little dude on Pepperdine that was talking smack. [laughs] And, you know, "Ah, low, you're nothing. ACC, you're going, you're, you're going home." Not so much. Not so much.
21:34
They win that, and of course, they famously win the title against Houston. Five slamma wasn't worth a dama- [laughs]... as we used to say back then. That was 1983, by the way. The altitude got to Hakeem.
21:44
What about the elevation? Hakeem. [laughs] Hakeem. This is, uh, Olajuwon used to spell it with an, with a, uh, without the H at that point. It was Hakim Olajuwon. Remember, he added the H later.
21:55
I always mix him up with the, uh, the wrestler. Oh, I know. You're, uh- [laughs] You're interesting.
21:59
Um, okay, much more to talk about, including, uh, you wanna give some accolades to some, uh, properties here on the strip. Um, we'll do that as well. We'll talk about some NFL season wins that you like. Mm-hmm.
22:11
Give a shout-out to Drew Dinsick on the whole alt season win totals. 100%. We'll, we'll delve into MLB alt totals, um, as well, and then, uh, Spanky on, uh, on pick sellers.
22:22
And, um, I think a, the big thing I wanna talk about here is, 'cause I, and I saw this, uh, tweet from you earlier, and a lot of people always have questions like this.
22:30
Speaking of college basketball, when we have a two-and-a-half-point spread, like we do, to buy a half point or to not buy? You're the best guy to talk about this.
22:40
Steve Fezzik right here, @FezzikSports, by the way, is his just absolutely ridiculous Twitter, which again, tread lightly. Must follow. Proceed with caution. Must follow. [laughs] Coming back.
22:50
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And with the Sharp Plays, you're joining a team that's never had a losing year. What do you have to lose? Start today. Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander.
23:40
It's the Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Um, I'd read more of your tweets, but it's, like, main, [laughs] like, 25 main tweets.
23:49
Um, and you know, we've already got accused of being too bougie today. Uh, Joe Peta's baseball plays. You re- Let's go... interested you in that? Is that something you might be interested in? Yes, sir.
23:58
Uh, Joe Peta's baseball plays, who, by the way, Joe, uh, on the show, nine and six plus 2.83 units.
24:05
He was on fire, and then he had a one in three day where he would've been four and O if he had played him, uh, first five. Look at you, ready to, ready to pounce.
24:11
By the way, Trading Bases is the book that Joe Peta wrote about betting baseball, and I highly recommend it. Oh, there you go. About him modeling baseball during his convalescence....
24:21
from getting hit by an ambulance in New York City. We have a- Yeah... Joe Theismann moment here. That's correct. All right, his three baseball plays today. Ready? He's on the Padres.
24:30
Padres plus 148, uh, pick number one from Joe. Uh, Padres plus 148. Uh, Padres trying to go to 8 and 0. They're at the Cubs at Wrigley tonight. They are a, uh, plus 142 proposition.
24:45
Don't forget about the 42 degrees for the kids from the Beach City, though. [laughs] Okay. By the way, that's a day game at Wrigley. [laughs] I have no idea what Stevie's doing. Day, day game at Wrigley. It's cold.
24:55
Padres plus 148. Yeah, it's cold there. Uh, he's on the Mariners, plus 135. Seattle Mariners today, plus, uh, 135, taking on the San Francisco Giants at Oracle in The Bay. Talk about cold, Friday night in The Bay.
25:10
Uh, so he's on the Mariners there at plus 136. And then Brewers, a slight favorite. Brewers are minus 108 today, are the Milwaukee Brewers. Um, they're taking on the...
25:20
Well, it's escaping me now who the Brewers are playing. Who are the Brewers playing? They're playing the Reds again. The Reds. They're hosting the Reds. The Reds have lost three straight games one-nothing.
25:28
Has that ever happened? How is that possible? I'm sure it has, but that's, that's, uh- I mean- Has it happened four in a row is the question... I mean, that's- Yeah...
25:37
gotta be like a once in a generation type of situation. Uh, Brewers are hosting the Reds today. Is that correct? Yeah. At American Family Field there in Milwaukee.
25:46
So it's a little higher than what Joe got it at, but still playable I would think at minus 115. So Padres, Mariners, Brewers from Mr.
25:53
Peter, who by the way, also, uh, texted in, uh, 'cause I, we brought up the Pepperdine NC State game from 1983. He said, "NC State Pepperdine, coached by Jim, Jim Harrick, by the way, at the time- Hmm...
26:03
uh, Pepperdine was, was the last Friday night double overtime game.
26:08
Uh, it was the, it was the last Friday night game that was a double overtime game, and there was no three-point line, remember, back then for that incredible comeback, even though there was a three-pointer in the ACC that year, which was like 15 [laughs] feet away.
26:20
True story.
26:20
[laughs] Yeah, the ACC, if I, if I can interpret this, I'm doing it off the top of my head, so I might not be accurate, but there was a conference or two that implemented the three-point line before it was made national.
26:31
And there are guys like Whittenburg that just went nuts- Yeah... because they loved that shot. Yes. Derrick Whittenburg from Tamaqua. All those NC State guys were from DC. Hmm.
26:39
Um, okay, let's, uh, let's continue with the, uh, the Fezzik Follies. First of all, let's, let's, let's do the, the Vegas part of this.
26:47
You wanted to, and I don't know what inspired this, but you wanted to talk about the best places to stay- Yeah... in Vegas. So Vegas has gotten more expensive, and people are down on Vegas.
26:55
You know, it's still a great place to go, and if you love sports, and you're an adult, you don't have kids, and you love partying, you know, [laughs] Circa is the place to stay.
27:05
I, every time I run into Bill 80 on a Friday night, and he's like, "You know, the Legacy club's open, Stevie." [laughs] And I got my work to do, like Dr. Bob, but I'm not as diligent as Dr. Bob. So, um- Yeah...
27:17
I've gone up to that Legacy Club, and especially in, you know, the summertime, Friday nights, The Plaza has fireworks at dusk.
27:24
There's no better place to be than having an old fashioned up at the Legacy Club, watching the fireworks from outside. But just Circa, swim, Barry's, uh, you know, the best sports book in the world. It's just incredible.
27:36
You have the South Point, and it's, it's, it's flowers, as the kids say. All right, so if you are driving and you have a car, because you're off the strip, South Point is such a great option.
27:44
They got everything from Michael's World Class Restaurant to, like, a bevy of different restaurants, and we were just at the South Point Buffet. It was quite good.
27:54
And just across the board, bowling and arcades and something for the kids, and there's always something going on, you know, in their arena.
28:02
And they really, uh, blackjack pays three to two, reasonable limits, and the place is always packed. It's like old school Las Vegas. Give someone good bourbon, good gamble, good value, and they'll come. Free parking.
28:17
South Point does it great. Look at you. And you're absolutely right about all that. And because it's a bougie Friday here on the show, uh, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the Wynn. Oh my gosh.
28:26
So if budget [laughs] is no concern- That's right... you're on corporate budget and you can stay at Wynn or Encore, what a great job they do in their poker room and in their sports book, that boutique sports book.
28:37
And I gotta tell you, that sports book, I'm, I'm, we're always negative about people. They treat me right. I have done a couple angle shoots before. No. I have. You?
28:47
And they've just been like, "Steve, can't have you doing that anymore." And I'm like, "I'm sorry. I'm sorry." And that, w- we, we just had one come up, and Doug Costenada and his whole crew over there, so good.
28:58
And, uh, Johnny Velo did a great job, you know, and he was managing the book, and it's continued. And I gotta tell you, Delilah's, that supper club. Oh, yeah. Oh, but W- Wing Lei, every restaurant they have.
29:09
Allegro's just tremendous. I, I, it raises my spirits just to walk into the place. Great parking, um, across the board. Love the Wynn.
29:18
Wynn, Encore are the only, the only two hotels where I still feel like I'm on vacation, even though I've lived here- Yes... for, for eight years.
29:24
Um, okay, Kelly and I were doing NFL season win totals, uh, this week, yesterday primarily. You have three that you love. Yeah, let's go.
29:32
So I purposely have a bias, because if, if you add up the, every team plays 17 games, so the average should be 8.5, but it's typically, like, 8.6. So there's value.
29:44
T- people wanna bet overs, not unders, so there's more value in unders than overs, so I intentionally picked three unders that I like.
29:51
Let's start with the Kan- And if you add up the entire pool of season wins, it exceeds the total amount of wins that is actually possible. Correct, and you could get ties. Yes.
30:01
And people once asked, "Does a tie count half a win?" And I'm like, "No, it's a tie. It counts as zero wins." So, so the, so the market is shaded slightly to the over.
30:08
So it turns out if you bet every single team, if you shopped and bet every team under, you'd actually be a favorite to make money. Yeah. So first under, Kansas City Chiefs 11 and a half.
30:17
I know they won every game last year. I get it, but, um, their point differential was lousy.
30:22
Like, it was like they outscored their opponents only by 60, so the Pythagorean points guys are gonna say, "Hey, last year they only won 12, and they're not gonna be as good this year. Kelce's a year older."
30:33
Uh, I, I see Kansas City winning 10 games under 11 and a half. Okay. You, it's an under fest. You have a couple more unders. Yeah, let's go Seattle under eight and a half. What are we doing here?
30:43
So last year- [laughs]... Seattle was supposed to win eight games.
30:46
They won 10, but their, again, their point differential was real close to zero, and now at best it's a lateral move at quarterback where they get rid of Geno Smith and they bring in Darnold.
30:56
But even if those two are equivalent, and I don't believe they are, I think Geno's just a little bit better, I mean, it's a brand-new situation for Darnold. Good luck. I don't think it's gonna be thrown to J.J.
31:05
this year, and Seattle just lost, you know, a stud wide receiver, so Seattle under eight and a half wins. Um, Patriots under eight and a half as well. Wh- where is this number coming from? I get it. Upgrade at coach.
31:17
Um, quarterbacks look, young quarterbacks looking good. They're gonna be better. Yeah, they won four games last year. We'll give them seven. The Patriots suddenly gonna win 10 games? I mean, under eight and a half. Okay.
31:29
And the reason, just to clarify, the reason that you and pro bettors still love betting season win totals pre-flop is?
31:37
If I'm right, I'm very likely to win, because I don't have to worry about any one play or game or situation. And obviously in football, the sample size is only 17, but in baseball- Baseball... it's 162.
31:51
So if you're directionally correct about- That's right...
31:53
a team, and you go ahead and, and identify it in retrospect, like the Reds to go under, who can't hit a lick, the Little Red Machine that can't hit, um, get those guys torpedo bets, we, um...
32:05
If you're directionally correct, you, you, you can't lose. You know, you know, you're going to win your bet. Yeah.
32:10
Oh, as I say all the time with baseball, 162 data points, you can overcome negative variance even if you're wrong for, for a month if your handicap is good. Exactly right.
32:19
Um, and so what about the alts in the NFL, which we always give our buddy Drew Dincic a shout, uh, about, 'cause he was sort of the first guy to talk about the alts in NFL and MLB. Yeah.
32:30
Love that Drew came out and said, "Hey, I'm gonna go ahead and sell a game," basically. So if, if a team, like with Kansas City, instead of playing them under 11 1/2, Drew would play them under 10 1/2 plus, like, 230.
32:42
Yeah. All right? Why is he getting such a great number? Well, it's because the, the bookmakers are using, like, the, the binomial d- distribution. Danger. Warning. Math coming. But it turns out- [laughs]...
32:53
that, uh, i- if you just plug in a team's binomial distribution, they should, they should land on the number about 18% of the time. It's like, it's a shockingly high number.
33:02
So that would say, oh, 68% of the time you've got an extra game, you're gonna win your bet.
33:07
But the binomial distribution is wrong for several reasons, including your anchor f- pre-flop number may not be correct, and injuries, changes to the team over the course of the season.
33:16
You cannot use a binomial distribution to properly price all this. Whenever you say binomial distribution, I just see the ratings soar in front of my eyes. It's amazing.
33:26
I don't have- So the solu- the, the, the conclusion is that it's, um, it, there, there's a, there's a wider tail to the distributions than you would expect. That's it, bro. It's just- Sorry...
33:35
bringing people into the tent is what you're doing, Steve. I appreciate it. $60 fine. Yeah. To, to buy the half-point in the Florida game or not, next, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:44
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa, it's Gil Alexander. Let's do our GBank official best bets of the day.
34:01
GBank, the official bank of VSiN. Every host, every guest, every show, recapping at the end of every, uh, show with all the picks, courtesy of GBank. First of all, mine, Duke -4 1/2 versus Houston. And then Dr.
34:15
Bob rolls on in here with everybody else, is like, "Houston +5 1/2." Well, we can both be winners at five. Middle and the middle. But I don't like being oppo Dr. Bob, so I'm on Duke. We got that early in the week.
34:26
And the Warriors to win the West +775. Also Mark Daigneault, of course, uh, to win Coach of the Year at 50 to 1, but that is not listed. Kelly is on the Bulls tonight, laying the points in the association.
34:38
Uh, he, too, made a Duke bet earlier in the week, -4 1/2 versus Houston. NFL draft, he's got NFL draft fever. He's done first-round quarterbacks over 2 1/2 -300, first-round running backs under 2 1/2 -310.
34:51
He is not shy about laying the juice. And Tedarella McMillan under 18 1/2 draft position at -190, uh, the standout wideout from Arizona. Stevie, Steve Fezzik, he's parlaying Houston and the under.
35:04
Houston and the under in college hoops, uh, in the national semifinal against Duke, a correlated parlay, and then three NFL season win totals, Chiefs under 11 1/2, Patriots under 8 1/2, Seahawks under 8 1/2.
35:18
Also, Chris Felica next? Am I, uh, correct in guessing who's next? No, Dallin Cuff. Uh, he had two places on both dogs in Final Four, Auburn +2 1/2 against Florida, Houston +5 1/2 against Duke.
35:29
It's a Houston train from our guests. Adam Burke, Nationals, D-backs, first five over 4 1/2 runs today. And then in the national semifinals, the Final Four tomorrow, Auburn on the money line versus Florida +133.
35:42
Duke laying five for Adam Burke. Here is Chris Felica with his plethora of picks. Final Four, Houston + the 5 1/2 versus Duke. Florida team total over 81 1/2 in their national semi.
35:55
Soccer, Everton double chance -105 versus Arsenal. That's tomorrow. And then in the Gazelle Stakes, Aqueduct, race number nine, the number four horse early on at six to one. I'm sure you've already bet that, Steve.
36:07
Already down. Then his futures. [laughs] Braves to miss the playoffs at +180 after their 0 and 7 start. Rockies to have the worst regular season record +150, and then three NFL draft bets, all positional plays.
36:19
Jaxson Dart under 24 1/2. By the way, that means he will be drafted before 24, uh, the 25th pick in the draft, I should say. Ashton Genti over 9 1/2, meaning he will be drafted after the ninth pick in the draft.
36:32
And Colston Loveland under 19 1/2 draft position from the Bear. Dr. Bob, Houston +5 versus Duke in the Final Four. And Joe Peda Not pictured on the screen today, but Joe Peta with his baseball plays.
36:48
He's on the Padres, plus 148. Uh, Padre try to go to 8 and 0. Mariners plus 135, and then he's on the Brew Crew minus 115 in their game in Major League Baseball. Is that all? Is that all we got today? I think that's it.
37:03
All of them, G Bank, the official bank of VSiN, all courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
37:08
And don't forget, with G Bank, uh, there's always good things happening, including, well, including upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new G Bank Visa Signature Card customers.
37:19
First, new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
37:25
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank.
37:36
That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. We get tweets at Beating the Book.
37:42
Jason Stark, "Mystic Pizza is Connecticut, which also has the superior lobster roll to Maine because it's hot butter, not cold mayo." You- Same region... get your Mystic Pizza right.
37:52
Matt Trudell or Matt Trudell, "If you make it to Maine, look me up. Free lake tour on Sebago Lake for the day for you and your guests. Yes, Kelly, we will have bourbon sangria and bikinis."
38:02
Uh, DJ Jams, "Can you ask Fez a question? If I were to make a 5, 10, 15, 20 leg parlay to win half a million, how would I do it? Am I asking for a friend?" [laughs] Michael Wozetek, "Did I miss Joe Peta's MLB plays?"
38:16
Yes, but I hope you got them just moments ago. Ray Tuttle, "It's the easiest under in the league," talking about the Giants in football. "Giants have a massive downgraded quarterback and a brutal schedule.
38:25
Absolute miracle if they win four games," he says.
38:28
Oh, as to your question about when was the last time the Reds, I assume he means the Reds, lost three straight one-nothing games, according to Russell Smith, it happened in 1960 against the Phillies, or maybe it happened to the Phillies, as I'm not clear by the tweet.
38:42
Um, and then Rich Copro, "Steve forgot to mention this little tidbit, um, that, uh, all seats are free at the South Point," which is one of the reasons why, uh, he won't set foot anywhere else that charges.
38:54
And to answer the question about the 10-team parlay, uh, South Point has an excellent parlay card, ties win, so take the, the 10 best numbers on the board.
39:04
Go, go on over and play a 10-team parlay during football season with the, um, like if the line's plus six and a half, play plus seven, ties win in the NFL. Tell them I sent you.
39:13
Uh, last thing about the alternate, uh, alternative season win totals, MLB. So MLB, Circa, Jeff Benson's crack crew put up alternative MLB s- season wins where they- Which is great...
39:24
plus or minus s- six games, and it turns out all things being equal, it's the opposite of football. In football, you want to sell a game. In baseball, you actually wanna buy the game.
39:34
So if you like Cleveland famously, um, to g- w- y- are you on the, the under? No, you're on the over. The under. Under. Under, under.
39:40
So instead of playing under 81 and a half, play Cleveland under 87 and a half minus 250 is the superior bet. I played a little under 87 and a half as well. That, my man, is a winner. Thank you very much.
39:51
Okay, uh, college basketball.
39:53
Uh, we happen to have a two-and-a-half-point spread this weekend, so this falls right into s- to something you were tweeting about, um, which I don't think you necessarily made the correlation that there was a, a game that was lined to two and a half this weekend.
40:04
Yeah. Um, buying onto the three, correct or incorrect? It all depends. So I've been, uh, my friend Billy, I love Crack Man, and he's been, you know, a proponent of it.
40:15
Alan Boston famously says, you know, "Two, three, and five to do the buy," and I've been the guy who's like, "Where's the data? Show me the data." I keep tweeting unabated. They're blowing me off.
40:23
I don't know why, but I- I, I can't imagine why, Steve... Carl Sack to the rescue, killersports.com provides the data.
40:30
It turns out that if it lands on three 4.5% of the time or more, all right, you should buy the half point. Say that again.
40:39
If, if a game l- a favorite is favored by three or within a half of it, if they are gonna win by three 4.5% of the time or more, the buy for 10 cents is correct. So it turns out it's really close. It's a close call.
40:53
Early in the year, these favorites win by a little less than 4.5%, but late in the year, they win by a little more than 4.5% such that all things being equal, given you are already gonna bet plus two and a half, then you should indeed plus three lay at dollar 20 is a slightly, slightly decimal points superior bet.
41:11
However, the total on this game's 159 and a half. Ah, yes, that's the next question. And so the lower the total, the more valuable this point buy is.
41:19
So to answer the question, it's really too close to call, but I don't believe it's justified in this case- 'Cause the total is so high... because the total's so high.
41:26
Um, what about that little detail you mentioned here that, that early in the year it's less than the percentage you gave, but later in the year it's, it's a little higher than the percentage that it would need to hit exactly on three to justify it.
41:39
Is there anything to that intuitively- Yes... why that happens? Yes, because we're really not sure about the power ratings on teams.
41:45
So there's some teams that are flawed with their power ratings, but by the end of the year, we have a high level of confidence in all of our power ratings, and so the, the, um, there'll be less variance in the results.
41:56
That is very interesting, very actionable information on that, like. Um, did you wanna mention anything about Spanky here and his, and his take on, uh, 'cause I know you sell picks and, uh, you wanted to say something.
42:05
Yeah, so, so, so Spanky does a great job with Bet Bash and all that he does.
42:10
He's, he made a statement that was, um, in general correct, and he said, and I'm toning it down a little bit, he says, "Never buy sports betting picks from anybody," and I actually in general I agree to that as just a, a, a piece of advice.
42:23
Never get involved in a land war in Asia, things like that, you know? [laughs] Um, but there's always exceptions to the rule. Yeah. Maybe there isn't in that case. Yeah. Um, and like, so I'll, I'll talk about, like, Dr.
42:34
Bob. I'll talk about- Yeah... I'll, I'll talk about Carl, um, Sack. I mean- Yes... I, I don't wanna like, like, be negative about Spanky, but Spanky is a dumbo to say you shouldn't buy Dr.
42:45
Bob, and Spanky is a dumbo to say you shouldn't buy Carl Sack. These guys- Well, you didn't, you didn't have to call him a name, but I understand what you're saying.
42:52
Well, well, well, I, I, well, and, and, you know what, if you're betting $20 a game or $80 a game, you shouldn't buy, but if you're a big bettor, these are guys you, you should absolutely have their information to assist you to winning.
43:02
I think even if Spanky were here, I think he would say, "Yeah, no, those two guys, you're, you're right." I, I think he would probably say that.
43:08
And, and I, I think, and the fact, I know for a fact Spanky has bought guys, so he's like- Yeah... he certainly does.
43:13
But, but what he said in general is correct, but there's, like, I could off the top of my head I could give you 20 guys that absolutely, you don't think having their information, let's say you could get it for free.
43:21
Let's say get, get it for a dollar, all right? Yeah. Obviously that's gonna help me win more to have that information in my back pocket. Carl, Carl Sack, I, I said this when he was on air earlier this week.
43:32
He is the one guy in the one sport that I will play his stuff no matter what. Honestly.
43:38
I, I totally will because I've, I have witnessed his plays over more than a decade, and it's just incredible how good he is at this stuff, and he gives Aaron Renning a lot of cr- credit by the way.
43:47
He's not the only one who's great at it, but he, uh, he's fantastic. Another guy. I mean, no, I mean- Yeah... w- you don't think it's gonna benefit you to have Aaron Renning's plays? Of course it is. Yeah.
43:55
Yeah, absolutely. And I, and by the way, I think Spanky would absolutely agree with you. There, there are exceptions to every rule, but I, yeah. I mean- Never say always. Okay. All right. [laughs] Oops. Yeah.
44:06
See you, Fezzy. Never say never. Uh, little bit of Twitter Fez just bled onto the show there. Uh-oh. That's a preview of his Twitter @FezikSports. I haven't cursed yet, but I got 10 seconds maybe. All right.
44:16
Let's try, let's try to resist. Bob started trending that way, by the way. [laughs] We had to, we had to pare him back. I know you guys, you potty mouths. Binomial distributions and potty mouths. Stormy is next.
44:26
Money moves. Enjoy, uh, Keith Irizarry. Uh, Irizarry, pardon me, Keith Irizarry is our co-host today. Enjoy from VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
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