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Apr 5, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 5, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 5, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:32
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story. They always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
This is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. What a Friday it is. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Kelly, we are, uh, as tends to be the case on Fridays, we are booked with guests. Yeah, we are. Paul Carr on soccer, Tim Murray, Chris Felica.
0:32
Tim Murray on college hoops, of course. Bob, Bob Stoll, Dr. Bob on college hoops, talking Final Four tomorrow. Uh, Felica on multiple sports. Jason Weingart from Under Cloud of Smoke.
0:41
We'll have Michael Monosono in here to talk college hoops with us. Um, so you and I have a lot of housekeeping to do. There's no time for small talk. [laughs] There's no time for small talk.
0:49
Hey, just take a step back from that ledge, my friend, okay? [laughs] First of all, uh, let's get the real important thing out of the way. Did you have, uh, Akshay Bhatia at the top of your golf leaderboard?
0:58
No, I didn't. No. Okay. [laughs] Of course, he was one of the guys I just left off my card, too. Three-shot lead for Akshay Bhatia. Just want to point that out. Akshay. All right. Uh, what's that? I'm sorry. Akshay.
1:07
Akshay, I'm sorry. Akshay. That's how much I was aware of him. Um, okay. Women's Final Four tonight. Uh, what are you doing on a Friday night, Kelly? I'll tell you what I'm doing.
1:16
I'm staying home and I'm watching women's college hoops. Yes, I am. There you go. And I'm excited about it. Uh, South Carolina, 11 and a half point favorites. A UConn men's-like spread.
1:27
South Carolina, 11 and a half point favorites against NC State. Remember, NC State and UConn has, have the chance of being both in the men's and women's college hoops finals.
1:35
Um, Dawn Staley trying to win her third national championship. Here, here's South Carolina's records here over this, this year, two years, and three years. 36 and 0, 72 and 1, 107 and 3, straight up. Is that good?
1:50
[laughs] That's pretty good. 11 and a half point favorites. And then of course, the night cap, the one that everybody's waiting for.
1:54
Caitlin Clark and Iowa, two and a half point favorites against Paige Bueckers and UConn. I have nothing pre-flop, but I will be watching. Yeah. We'll see. Maybe there's an end game.
2:02
Yeah, I mean, that's what I did with, with the- Yeah... Iowa U- uh, LSU game. I'm with you. I won't have anything pre-flop.
2:07
I am, I will be watching though, I imagine, and, uh, I'm looking forward to another good game, man. I imagine. What, what else are you gonna do? I imagine. I don't know. It's Friday night. I don't know. Who knows?
2:16
Maybe build a Bed Bath & Beyond. I don't know. Exactly. [laughs] We'll see. Uh, and then the big one, the Final Four tomorrow, of course.
2:22
Uh, two of the five biggest spreads in the history of the national semifinals, and if you put them together, as Crack talked about yesterday of all people, right? Crack was on this. Mm-hmm.
2:31
When you combine them, the largest combined spread of any two semifinals we've ever had in any one given year. Uh, UConn, the Goliath, 11 and a half point favorites against the NC State Wolfpack.
2:43
Um, that's the first one tomorrow as UConn just tries to continue destroying teams, um, not only on the scoreboard, but from a betting standpoint against the spread as well. The Cinderella story that is the, um...
2:58
That it... W- By the way, I got that messed up. Uco- UConn playing Alabama. Hold on, I messed this up. UConn playing Alabama, okay? Playing the Crimson Tide of Alabama, 11 and a half point favorites.
3:09
All that applies to UConn still. I didn't even hear what you said. [laughs] I think I... No, maybe I said it right. Maybe I said... I thought I said the Wolfpack for, for whatever reason. I don't know.
3:15
But, uh, they're playing the Crimson Tide. 11 and a half point favorites. I've got the future on Alabama. I have no intention, uh, or no, not no intention, but I have no expectation that this will win.
3:24
Uh, it's funny, even when folks were like, "Oh, well, you're gonna hedge." And I pointed out, I was like, "There's no way to hedge unless they got out to a lead."
3:32
And the point is, even if it's an early lead, there won't be hedge opportunities. Yeah. And then if it's a lead later, this is the part we always leave out of this hypothetical discussion.
3:42
If, if Alabama goes up, I don't know, let's just, just play with me here, and let's say they go up nine, and it's early second half, will your brain be able to toggle at that point to, "Oh, sure, I should really hedge out of this future right now"?
3:56
Or are you like, "I'm up nine." Well, I, it- "What's the point? I'm riding it." I mean, it is the ultimate example. Yes. I, I, I think you always do one of the best jobs of explaining when, when or why to hedge, right?
4:08
And it's what's changed with your handicap or your bet? Right. Well, and that, that's the perfect situation. It'll be like, "Well, I'm up nine-" Yes. We, we- "... with a ticket."
4:15
[laughs] We tend to leave that part out of the discussion where you said your brain won't be where your brain is now. Right. Yeah. So, uh, and- I, I figure you're in a tough spot, uh, to, to, to hedge.
4:25
I mean, I think you're riding with it. I think it's- Oh, you should ride with it... yeah, you're riding with it. And I'm cool with it.
4:28
And the, this game from a betting standpoint, I don't, I don't really know how you, how you bet this one for...
4:33
But just 'cause the variance we talk about with Alabama, like, it's scary enough that I'm not running to lay th- 11 and a half with UConn, yet it wouldn't surprise me at all if UConn just rolls by them. I lean dog.
4:46
I don't... Just full disclosure, I don't have a pre-flop bet in either of these yet. But I lean dog in both of these. Mm. Like, again, I get it. UConn is the Goliath. For- forget my future for a second.
4:56
UConn is a Goliath, but if I'm just landing on this game right now, 11 and a half points is still 11 and a half points, and I know they've crushed everybody since.
5:02
Remember, though, that Northwestern game in this tournament. They did kind of take the foot off the gas. Northwestern almost had a backdoor cover there for a second.
5:11
So even if the Crimson Tide are competitive with the barrage of threes, which is clearly their strategy in this ballgame, just flood the zone, shoot 50 threes. And I, and I mean that. I'm not just making up a number.
5:21
Yeah. They've shot over 40 in some of these games already. Shoot 50 threes and see how many you make. That's one way to keep this obviously within the number, if not win it.
5:30
And the other way is the backdoor could be open kind of thing. Mm. Um, so I, I would lean Crimson Tide plus the points. I would also lean with the Wolfpack plus the points, uh, against the Purdue Boilermakers.
5:40
And everybody's talking, and justifiably so, about, you know, the, the foul conundrum that officials have with Zach Edey. Uh, what do you do with this?
5:50
Um, I have said all week that I think it's going, if anything, it's going to be the opposite, that the officials are gonna... Officials are aware of what's being said out there. Boilermakers are nine-point favorites
6:00
If anything, they're gonna bend over backwards to not have a foul disparity between the Boilermakers and their opponents, in this case, the Wolfpack. It was 33 to 13 free throw attempts, uh, in the last game for Purdue.
6:13
I would, I would lean Wolfpack here plus the points as well. Haven't made the bets yet, but that's how I would go. Yeah, this is- Underdog and underdog...
6:19
this is the one w- this is the one all week that, that you and I have been a little oppo on, although it doesn't sound like either one of us [laughs] is that strong, 'cause neither one of us has run to the window here to bet it yet.
6:28
I'm still waiting to see where this moves. I, I'm gonna be on Purdue, uh, at some point, though. I'm waiting to see if this maybe ticks under nine. Perhaps I can get eight and a half.
6:36
I, I, I think that big man battle is, is the key. I'm interested to see how the whistles go. I, I just, man, I think it's, if we talked mid-'90s NBA, right? Like, Zach Edey is built for that.
6:48
It's still one of the most effective ways to, to score a- and, and have efficient- And DJ Burns is Zach Randolph. Yeah, right, yeah. Yeah. And have efficient offense i- in basketball is to go to a big man.
6:57
I th- I feel like DJ Burns is just gonna have his hands full trying to guard a, a, guard Edey, and you're gonna rack up fouls. I, I just, I could see this getting really ugly for NC State and Burns.
7:08
But you're, but you're right. If we, if we came here Monday and we found out that both favorites blew them both off the court, is that gonna be the most surprising thing in the world to me? It will not be.
7:15
Um, we actually have bets on some other things, though. One, two tennis bets. Let me get those out of the way. Uh, coming- by the way, one and two yesterday in tennis.
7:22
We hit the favorite, Tatiana Maria, in a match that was just delayed by weather and then by a power outage. It took all day to complete, uh, but got it done.
7:30
Lost one of the dogs, uh, outright on Hailey Baptiste in two sets, and then Francesca Jones, our plus 238 or whatever the number was on, on the dog that we had her at, she was up 7-6, 4-2 and gagged it.
7:43
So it turned a winning, a big winning day into a, uh, unit of a loss day. Still, uh, still up 25 units on the tennis season. Here are the two plays today. Luciano Darderi, minus 108 against Marcos Giron.
7:55
These are all on clay, by the way. Um, I think you can get a better price on Darderi than I got, uh, last night. So Luciano Darderi, uh, against Marcos Giron. Darderi is the play.
8:07
And then fading Ben Shelton with Brandon Nakashima in a battle of Americans. Brandon Nakashima at plus 103, which I think is right around that price.
8:18
Uh, the Nakashima-Shelton, yeah, Nakashima's at plus 105, so it's right around there. That one's in Houston. And the, uh, Giron-Darderi is also in Houston.
8:26
So both of these are stateside in Houston of all the cl- there's like five clay court tournaments going on right now. So both of these are in Houston, Darderi and Nakashima. You have an NBA play.
8:35
Last night in the NBA, it was a big day for play-in/playoff positioning, if you will. Um,
8:44
first of all, Warriors crushed the Rockets, so we can pretty much, even though mathematically it's not done, we can still pretty much Katie bar the door on any discussion of, uh, the Warriors getting knocked out by the Rockets.
8:57
Yeah. Uh, that, that seems to be a done deal now. Four games now, yeah. Yeah.
9:00
The issue is, of course, now in the Western Conference, uh, you have in the five through 10 teams, the Mavericks through the Warriors, here are your losses: 30, 31, 31, 32, 33, 34. So right now, who gets in the top six?
9:17
Right now, Dallas and Phoenix on the inside looking out. New Orleans, Sacramento, Lakers, Warriors on the outside looking in, but that's the order. Uh, by the way, Clippers' big win held on to beat the Nuggets.
9:30
So the Nuggets one game behind in the loss column of the T-Wolves, as are the Thunder for the number one seed. Clippers get a little distance between them at four and Dallas at five.
9:40
Um, and then in the Eastern Conference, the game of consequence, Philly beats the Heat. So the Heat now are on the outside. They're in the seventh spot in the East.
9:50
Same amount of losses, though, in the loss column as the sixth-seeded Pacers right now, and the Sixers one game behind in the loss column. You made a Sixers bet, sir. I did, yeah. F- I, I did.
10:01
I know we were talking about it all week and, uh, just kind of going back and forth.
10:04
I was, uh, the timing was important to me, but I, I was watching a lot of that Sixers-Heat game last night, and we just kinda, by, by halfway through it, seeing Embiid play well, I mean, he was gassed, but [laughs] seeing him play well, um, and looking comfortable out there, I, I w- I made the decision probably about a quarter of the way, a, a quarter halfway through that game.
10:22
I was like, "This looks like it's gonna be a Sixers win. I'm jumping in on Sixers futures, uh, before they continue to, continue to get too short."
10:29
And now we're, you pick up a win over Miami, at least put yourself into a position to play yourself out of that play-in tournament. That at least enough, is enough for me, Gil, to get in on the Sixers.
10:40
11 to 1 to win the East, 30 to 1 to win it all. Um, we talked yesterday, it's just gonna be a matter of, you know, who's left to face the Celtics, who can make a run, uh, through the Eastern Conference.
10:51
I do think the Sixers are a team that when we saw them at full strength earlier this year, you could easily have said they were the second-best team, uh, in the Eastern Conference with prime Joel Embiid.
10:59
So I, I'm buying in. We'll see where that ticket goes. It's obviously gonna get a lot shorter if they avoid that play-in tournament.
11:05
Yeah, um, Knicks beat the s- the Kings last night, which had implications for both teams, 'cause the Knicks, you talk about a, a logjam in the West.
11:12
Three, four, and five in the East all have 31 losses, talking Cleveland, Orlando, and New York. Remember, in that pos- in that case, you're, you're jockeying for home court- Yeah... theoretically in the second round.
11:23
Bucs still have a two-game advantage in the, uh, loss column, uh, for the number two seed there. Uh, a little more than a week left in the NBA regular season. Remember, seven plays eight, the winner is in the playoffs.
11:37
Nine plays 10, the winner will play the loser of seven-eight. The winner of that game will determine the eighth position of the playoffs. So they'll play, an NBA struggle with the play-in, that's for sure.
11:47
We'll come back. The bevy of guests beginning with college hoops. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
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12:14
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12:21
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12:30
I like that we all do the, like, I'm just gonna talk louder even though your mic's off. Yeah, it's not- Like, it doesn't work. It doesn't help anyway. In your splitting bets voice.
12:36
[laughs] Screaming about the newsletter. Uh, real quick also, 'cause we, we have... We said we have so many guests and we had to get all the housekeeping out. We didn't get nearly through all the housekeeping.
12:46
NIT yesterday, by the way, congratulations to anybody who had Seton Hall futures, like Chris Felica, who's one of our guests later today. He had futures on the Pirates, uh, to win the NIT.
12:57
And my deepest, most heartfelt condolences if you had Indiana State, um, which I know our buddy Will Hill did, among others. Goodness gracious.
13:07
Sycamores went up in this game, uh, 77 to 70 on an 8 and 0 run late in this game. So there was under three minutes left in the game. Sycamores are up seven.
13:19
After the 8 and 0 run, you're like, "Wow, Indiana State is taking this. Good for them." Um, Robbie Avila, the, uh, you know, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird, pick your nickname, um, he in...
13:33
Subsequently after that seven and O...
13:35
Uh, after that 8 and 0 run, Seton Hall goes on a 9 and 0 run to close it out, and part of that, Avila took this really bad three, I thought, with too much time left on the shot clock at around the minute mark.
13:48
And, and then by the way, Indiana State had a couple shots at it at the end to, uh, change the fate of the entire tournament, and they couldn't put the ball in.
13:57
And so Seton Hall, in the most dramatic of fashions, wins the NIT. So brutal if you had Indiana State futures. That's one of those moments in sports betting where you're like... You, you just feel bad for people- Yeah...
14:09
'cause you're like, you went this entire tournament. It looked like it was in your hands. How, how did, uh, Avila only have 10 shots, man? Come on. He was making some great passes, you know? But that...
14:20
He did, I thought he took an ill-advised shot early in the shot clock with about a minute left. Uh, we'll get to some more stuff. Let's talk some soccer though. Paul Carr joins us from the center of the country.
14:29
Really, I'm talking center. Like, if you take one vertical line and then one horizontal line, it's like- [laughs] Dead center... directly right in the middle. Topeka, Kansas.
14:36
It's Paul Carr, everybody, host of the Expected Value Podcast, and of course works at True Media Networks. He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Paul? I'm good.
14:45
I believe Lebanon, Kansas is the- Ooh... geographic center of the contiguous 48 states. It's probably two, two, three hours west of Topeka or so. Oh, okay. So I'm wrong. Lebanon. Lebanon, Kansas.
14:57
Pretty, pretty close though. Pretty close. Pretty close. All right, I gave it a shot. What was that word? Contiguous? Contiguous states, yeah. Yeah. As opposed to Hawaii and Alaska, which would not be contiguous.
15:06
I was not sure, yeah. Kelly Biddlin, everybody. That FSU education kicking in. [laughs] English major too. Oh, were you? [laughs] Yeah. That's great. Woo. Woo. All right. Well, Paul, we're off to a rough start already.
15:17
[laughs] Uh, all right. There we go. Uh, before we get into your plays, by the way, you're on a bit of a heater, aren't you, right now? Yeah.
15:25
I went 3 and 0 on the Premier League this week on the heels of a plus 280 over the weekend. Only needed, you know, two stoppage time goals to get the Chelsea win yesterday. Sure. So yeah. Sure. No sweat. Nice and easy.
15:34
We're rolling right now. Easy peasy. And no real change to the title race right now in the Premier League? Not really. Everybody held serve this week.
15:42
Liverpool, City, Arsenal all winning, so Liverpool's still got a two-point lead on Arsenal, three-point lead on City.
15:47
I still kind of lean City, plus given the prices at plus 200 over, uh, Liverpool's about plus 110, plus 120. But yeah, nothing I'm rushing out to play on any of those. Yeah, Liverpool with eight games left now.
15:58
Liverpool with 70, Arsenal with 68, Man City with 67. What do you make of the, uh, battle for fourth in the Champions League spot? Aston Villa 59 and Tottenham 57, although Aston Villa has one fewer games remaining.
16:11
I don't hate Aston, an Aston Villa play here. I think they are fairly clearly the better team over the course of the season. Uh, you can get... I'm pulling up odds here.
16:20
Tottenham's like a minus 145 favorite, so I don't mind Aston Villa at plus 120 or so, if you haven't played them already, which I have. Uh, Villa does have a slightly tougher schedule, which is why...
16:29
And, and obviously Tottenham has the game in hand. But I think Villa's just a little bit better, uh, than Tottenham is. So I, I would lean toward Villa in that, but it should be a fun race down the stretch regardless.
16:38
All right. Let's see if the streak can continue. We got a couple plays tomorrow, beginning with a, with a total. It's been a long time since you've had a total. [laughs] Two appearances.
16:47
Yeah, I got hot without the total, so maybe this is a mistake, uh, going back to it. But I'm gonna take the over three and a half in Fulham, Newcastle at plus 130.
16:57
This has just pretty much everything you need for an over.
17:00
You've got, I mean, Newcastle, their games this season have the most goals, period, well over three per game, uh, and most expected goals, so that's not a fluky sort of thing.
17:09
Fulham games have been wide open, especially lately. They've had nine straight games with at least three goals. Four of those have had four plus goals, all with, again, the underlying numbers to match.
17:18
Fulham's defense, not so good. Newcastle, very patient, takes good shots. Um, both have hot strikers. You know, Fulham has Rodrigo Muniz, Muniz, who scored an eight, eight goals in his last nine games.
17:28
Newcastle's Alexander Isak has scored in four straight. So just think this one's gonna be open. Neither team has a ton to play for.
17:35
Newcastle's on the fringes of the European race, uh, and Fulham is, is pretty safe from relegation, but I think this is just gonna be a, a wide open game with lots of goals. All right.
17:44
And then Everton and Burnley, you have a thought on that? Yeah, fairly straightforward here. It's a, it's a good price I think on an Everton win, even at the minus 145, uh, number I played.
17:55
It would go down to about minus 150. Uh, let's talk about Everton a lot.
17:59
They're 16th in the table, seven points clear of 19th place Burnley, but Everton's goal difference is minus 11, and Burnley's is minus 34, which is more indicative of what all the numbers look like, uh, the difference in these two clubs.
18:12
Uh, Burnley's been attacking more lately because they're desperate to stay up, and I think that plays into Everton's hands. They're still been pretty solid defensively. They like to counterattack.
18:20
Uh, the lineup's getting more settled and healthy. So here's the caveat. Everton hasn't won in 13 games, but, uh, that just means they're due, right? So, uh, Everton to win -145. All right, both of those are tomorrow.
18:32
[laughs] Uh, Sunday, I guess game of the week, Liverpool and Man U? Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Liverpool, Man United, one of the highlights of any Premier League season really.
18:41
And so Manchester United, so they blew a 3-2 lead in stoppage time to Chelsea yesterday, and they were both fortunate in the s- in- or they were unfortunate in the sense they lost the game when they were ahead in stoppage time.
18:53
But they were kind of fortunate to even be up three to two. They finished all three of their decent chances or half decent chances, uh, in that game, and that's kind of what United's season has been like.
19:03
They've been running hot pretty much all year. Uh, Liverpool's cruising. I mean, they're in first place. They've won 10 out of 12 since Christmas.
19:09
Their only losses, or the only times they dropped points rather, were to City and Arsenal, and they scored at least twice in all those games. So they're not just like sneaking through one-nil type of games.
19:18
They're, they're scoring the goals. Liverpool midfield's looking great. That's a weakness of Manchester United. So I just like play Liverpool win -145.
19:27
Uh, it's at Manchester United, but Liverpool's won two out of three there. Not a big deal. That game's on Sunday. All right, let's review. Fulham, Newcastle over three and a half goals tomorrow. That's three and a half.
19:37
Plus money though for Paul. Shop around for these numbers. Uh, also tomorrow, Everton outright win over Burnley -145 is the number that Paul quoted.
19:44
And then Sunday, Liverpool outright against Man U, also about a -145, uh, favorite in that. Paul, um, with apologies to the folks of Lebanon, Kansas, uh, we still love Topeka. Still love Topeka. All good. Thank you.
19:59
Yeah, and tell Felice, tell Felice I'm taking Liverpool so he can stop yelling at me about that. [laughs] It really is amazing. Have you noticed that he, he, he angry texted you last time? Yeah. Yeah.
20:08
Anytime I pick against Liverpool, I get angry texts from Felice. P- Paul does a, does a spot- So we, we're cutting it off...
20:13
Felice objects to something, and then he, he angry texts the both of us about the, about the whole, uh, [laughs] whole thing. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it, man. You bet. Have a good weekend.
20:23
Paul Carr, everybody, @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Again, The Expected Value Podcast is the name of his podcast. He is the host of that.
20:31
Um, in the, the housekeeping theme, 'cause there's lots that we still gotta get to we, oh, interwoven around these guests, uh, made my first NFL draft bet, Kelly, of the season.
20:41
Of course, the NFL draft not till later this month. Have you made any draft bets, by the way? Any- Yeah, I've got a couple. I've got a couple. You've got a couple. I haven't made any recently, though.
20:47
I kind of made some on the, on the openers, but you, you get to yours first, and I can, you know- I went to Stations, went to Palace Station after the show yesterday. Stations, by the way, shout out to Stations.
20:57
Chuck Esposito still the man at Stations by the way? Yeah. Yeah. Shout out to Chuck Esposito and everybody- Love the Esco... who, who does, uh, their stuff at Stations. They've got over 20 draft props up already.
21:08
So again, those of you not in the state of Nevada, uh, lucky you if you've got a, a, a wider menu available to you. We don't here, quite frankly, in this state. Um, but 22 plus props over at Stations.
21:21
I bet, and this is just by perusing everybody's mock drafts, and there is a very common theme to the Jaguars' first pick, and that is to pick a cornerback. A cornerback.
21:32
They need big help in the secondary, and so whether you looked at, uh, Jeremiah's last one or Kiper's last one, I can't remember who else I looked at, uh, everybody really loves the Jaguars picking a cornerback to address that need.
21:44
And so at Stations, plus it was, uh, even money, plus 100 yesterday. And so I grabbed that as my first NFL draft bet, and they immediately moved it to -130, which I think is still a good bet for that. I like it.
21:56
Yeah, I like it. Yeah. The, uh, no, you're right, they've done a great job. I think it was Stations, it was Stations and then Caesars were the first in town I think with draft props.
22:04
I don't know who was first, but they were both pretty close together. Um, I don't even know how many other books really have many up. Yeah. So like you said, great job posting as many as they've done.
22:13
I bet a couple there. Um, so far I have, what, a lot of these were on openers, but Marvin Harrison to the Cardinals -170. Believe Nayber's the number five pick plus 225.
22:23
And then quarterback, I've got quarterbacks over, quarterbacks under, uh, just picking off prices there. What did you- Wish I would've hammered that over four and a half at even money though.
22:31
What did you do first, the over or the under at four and a half? Uh, over first. Thank you. Thank you. What made you go back on it? That's a- Just, just 'cause they just opened and it was getting- Oh...
22:38
you were getting plus money. Over's like minus- I know... 300 now or something like that. Should be probably higher. The college basketball cavalcade begins with Tim Murray next.
22:47
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23:06
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23:11
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23:33
You don't have to limit it to baseball. That's right, yeah. You can get more than just baseball there. I was like, uh, you know, sportism is what that was. Woke up the D on that one.
23:40
I, I got a, at least three angry looks on that yell. Oh, did you really? Yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah, the Sigma Derby people don't like you very much, do they? [laughs] Look at them, angry. Angry mob.
23:50
Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book. Jeremy Larson, always appreciate the feedback, by the way, everybody. Best listeners in the game.
23:55
Jeremy Larson, "Thanks for more winners on ANG with Gilley Kelly" Paul Carr, um, Paul Carr trying to keep the streak alive. Oh, AB Power Moves, this is interesting.
24:04
He said he just noticed Caesars has Silver Slugger markets. Would love your thoughts on it. Uh, AP Power Moves, I'll take- AB Power Moves, I'll take a look at it this weekend.
24:13
I have not seen that, but, uh, Silver Slugger, by the way, uh, best offensive player at each position in baseball for those who do not know. Uh, Nevadazer, "Hey Gil, do you know..." Oh, this is a great question.
24:24
I was talking about this last night with somebody. "Do you know if the NBA is going to announce its award winner shortly after the season ends as it did last year? I haven't seen any dates regarding this.
24:34
I hope they don't make everyone wait until the summer." So this is a great question. So the NFL has a night Right? Where they designate right before the Super Bowl, "This is our awards night. We're giving them all out."
24:45
Baseball, we like to joke, and not- we're not even joking, it's damn near Thanksgiving, but that by the time they give away their last one. They wait for the World Series to end. Remember, it's regular season awards.
24:55
They wait for the whole post-season end, and then they mete them out one by one, and they telegraph the pass on the awards show by, like, having the guy's mother who's gonna win it give out the award.
25:05
The NBA is the most nebulous. You can't find it anywhere.
25:08
And remember last year, like, during the playoffs randomly we'd be watching TNT, and Ernie Johns will be like, "By the way, in case you missed it earlier today," [laughs] "...
25:16
uh, Rookie of the Year from our Atlanta studios." Right? He would do that whole thing. And you're like, "Wait, what? They gave out Rookie of the Year?" So there is no date that we can find yet.
25:24
So I'm not sure if the NBA's gonna do that again this year, where they just randomly during the playoffs let you know, "Oh, by the way, we gave out Defensive Player of the Year today."
25:33
Well, they, they, they al- I think they typically always do it near the beginning of the playoffs, but you're right. Yeah. I don't... There's never, like, a set night, set date night.
25:42
La- and last year it was a cou- one by one over a few days. Tim Murray, host of VSAN Prime Time, co-host along with Jonathan Vontobel, weeknights, uh, 6:00 PM right here at the network.
25:52
Joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Timmy, do you have any, uh, NBA futures this year, or NBA awards props? I don't.
25:59
I know it's a, a very, uh, hot topic here on the network regarding Defensive Player of the Year, so I'm eating my popcorn and, uh, listening to people get mad about it, um, which is always fun. But I, I just, uh...
26:10
Have you been working on that Ernie impersonation? That's pretty good. I, I al- Oh, that's a- That was a good Ernie... that's a, that's a staple of this show. [laughs] Right? It's pretty good.
26:18
In fact, whenever, uh, whenever, whenever- That's a solid Ernie. Well done... it, it, it comes up when, uh, former Cleveland running back- Right [laughs]...
26:26
and I don't know who he played for again this year, when Ernest Johnson does something- [laughs]... then I always bring it up like that. [laughs] Um, friend who's always from our Atlanta studios, I always throw it.
26:35
All right, Tim, I don't know if you know this, we got a Final Four tonight, we got a Final Four tomorrow. True. By the way, do you, are you watching the, the women's tonight? Heck yeah. Oh, absolutely. Heck yeah.
26:44
Uh, yeah. Uh, UConn-Iowa is, uh, is definitely appointment watching for me. Uh, that's not a knock on South Carolina and NC State. I don't think it's gonna be ultra-competitive. Hopefully I'm wrong.
26:54
But, you know, you know, it, it's, it's, it's been fun to watch. You know, I, I j- uh, you know, um, I'm trying to think back.
27:01
It was a couple weeks ago the second round games had wrapped up in the men's side, and there was a, a late night game, Stanford and Iowa State, uh, a second round game in the women's bracket.
27:11
And I turned it on, and the shot-making was just incredible. Incredible. You know, obviously- Yeah... 12 million people watched on Monday night the performance that we saw from Caitlin Clark.
27:19
And, you know, not to be short-changed, I actually thought the game that followed, USC-UConn, was, was just as entertaining. So no, no doubt. I'm definitely gonna be watching tonight. Uh, don't have any skin in the game.
27:31
Uh, [laughs] I did go, uh, uh, against the grade on Monday night. I took some, uh, I took some South Carolina. So, uh, I'm gonna h- I'm gonna sit back and lick my wounds. Uh, but, uh, we'll see.
27:43
We'll see what the market does here, because, you know, obviously, you know, you think back, Gil, to the player prop market for Caitlin Clark, and she just destroyed everything. So- Oh, she crushed it...
27:53
you know, when you want it, if you wanna go against the grade and go under 33 and a half points, you know, Godspeed, because she is, uh, capable of doing what she did [laughs] on Monday, which was just going absolutely nuclear.
28:04
You didn't have Indiana State future in the NIT, did you, by any chance? I had Indiana State last night. That was fun. Ugh. So that was, uh, up, up 77 to 70 with, uh- [laughs] Brutal... with two minutes to go.
28:15
And, you know, I just, I, I, I don't... You know, I, I... You know, I'm not playing the game at that, at that level, but, you know, understanding the game and, and just not understanding the possessions.
28:25
You know, when you're up and, you know, pulling threes with- Yeah... you know, 20 seconds left on the shot clock, it just made no sense.
28:32
Uh, and then their final play out of the, uh, out of the timeout with eight seconds to go, where I thought, "All right. Maybe they're just gonna get to the bucket here and force overtime."
28:40
And then, [laughs] you know, they d- they pulled a three with, like, four seconds. It got blocked. They put it aga- I'm like, "Oh, what are we doing?" So- Yeah...
28:46
uh, you know, congratulations to Shaheen Holloway and, uh, and Seton Hall. But that was a- Shaheen Holloway. Yep... that was a tough one. That was a tough one to swallow.
28:54
But, uh, you know, I guess betting against Shaheen Holloway in March is, uh, or March/April- [laughs]... is not a, not a profitable endeavor, if you remember back to, uh, to the St. Peter's days. Yeah, well put.
29:05
Uh, I mentioned the Avila shot with the shot clock having t- way too much time left on it with a minute left, yeah. I get it. You're wide open, but the seconds matter more at that point. All right. Let's do this.
29:14
National semifinals, let's do them one by one, chronological order. First- Yep... the appetizer, Purdue nine point favorites over the Wolfpack, total 146 and a half. What are you doing with it? I'm laying it.
29:27
Uh, I laid eight and a half, which is still available at a shop here in town. Um, you know, I think you can be patient, um, because NC State, Gil, uh, is, is the team that people want to win and cover.
29:38
Um, you know, I think this is a team, you mentioned the betting splits that we have over at vsan.com. Uh, early betting splits show that there's gonna be public dog action. And I get it, right?
29:47
This team is, is 9 and 0, uh, over the last nine games, has been the improbable run. DJ Burns has been phenomenal. But, you know, I look at a couple things here, uh, that, that leads me to liking Purdue.
29:59
Uh, and, and the first and foremost is, and maybe it just continues, but you look at what opponents have shot, Gil, from three against NC State, it's ridiculous in a bad way.
30:08
I mean, they are 28 of 117 from three, uh, in the NCAA tournament. So I think there's a bit of good fortune, uh, on, uh, on NC State's side in that regard.
30:20
Uh, the Sweet 16 game against Marquette, Marquette, a pretty good three-point shooting team, had good looks, went 4 of 31 from three.
30:28
And then Purdue, uh, you know, I, I think this is getting overlooked a lot because Zach Edey had the epic performance that he had against Tennessee, where he had 40 and 16.
30:37
Gil, Purdue is the number one, or was the number one three-point shooting team in the country based off of pos- uh, percentage. Mm-hmm. And, uh, they went 3 of 15 and still beat Tennessee, and covered, by the way.
30:49
So I think you're gonna get a more, uh, a positive regression from Braden Smith, Lance Jones, Fletcher Lawyer, uh, that back court.
30:57
And then lastly, I just think this is a really tricky matchup for DJ Burns against Zach Edey. Uh, DJ Burns going for 29 against Kyle Filipowski in the Elite Eight.
31:06
Uh, ultimately, I think it's gonna be a bigger challenge for him going up against Zach Edey, the frame that Edey is.
31:11
And, and for Edey, I think for the most part, Gil, you know, I don't think he gets enough credit for the athleticism that he shows, uh, the endurance that he has for a big guy like that running the floor as well as he does.
31:25
So I think it's gonna be a really tough go of it for DJ Burns. So, uh, I'm on, uh, I'm on Purdue. I laid the eight and a half.
31:31
And then secondly, I haven't gotten there yet, Gil, but, you know, DJ Burns player prop is sitting at eight and a h- or excuse me, 14 and a half.
31:38
It's now juiced to the under, so we've seen a little bit of a shift of the juice. I think he's really gonna struggle to, to score on a regular basis.
31:45
And he's a really good passer too, so I do think DJ Burns can maybe facilitate more, uh, in this game as opposed to, you know, kind of be the offensive force that he had to be against Duke. All right.
31:56
You know where I'm going. 11 and a half point spread with UConn over the Crimson Tide. Total at 160 and a half. Look, I, I got in front of the freight train in the Elite Eight. I, I, I stood on the train tracks.
32:09
I said, "Bring it on. Uh, you aren't, you aren't nine points better than Illinois-" [laughs] "... the Big Ten tournament champions."
32:17
There's no way that Brad Underwood is just gonna say, "Hey, guys, let's just drive the baseline and go at Donovan Clingan time after time after time again," but they did.
32:28
And I sat there in horror as I watched Illinois be tied at 23 and then be down 53 to 23.
32:35
So I have not gotten back in front of the freight train that is UConn, who has covered every single NCAA tournament game over the last two years by 14 points per game.
32:47
Um, I think there are unique ways if you want to try to poke the dragon, uh, go at the dragon, maybe a first half play on Alabama, hope that they're red hot from three, uh, maybe a first to 10 or first to 15.
32:58
But Gil, this, this UConn team, I wanna see them play Purdue. I think that'll be a good match up, uh, with the struggles that Alabama has defensively as a, you know, 105th best defense per KenPom.
33:11
I don't know how Alabama, uh, can keep it up for 40 minutes. So maybe a first half play, but I'm not doing it again. I got ran over, uh, on, uh, over the weekend, and I don't wanna do it again.
33:22
It was too much pain watching a 30-0 run. Yes or no answer. UConn's beating Purdue then in the title game, per your predictions? Uh, I'm gonna take the points with Purdue. How about that? Oh, okay.
33:32
We'll talk about it on Monday if you want. We'll talk about it, we'll talk about it then. Tim Murray, everybody, co-host of Vsauce Prime Time. Thank you, Tim. See you guys. Played a little college hoops himself.
33:41
Jason Weingarten next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
DraftKings Sportsbook, one of America's top-rated sportsbook apps, is giving new customers a shot to turn five bucks into $150 instantly in bonus bets with any college basketball bet. Let me repeat that.
34:05
Turn five bucks into $150 instantly in bonus bets with any college hoops bet. Download the app. Use promo code VSIN when you sign up. V-S-I-N, DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours. Uh, it's Gil Alexander.
34:18
We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate, uh, the feedback. Uh, this is from, uh, Steve in Vegas. "Had Batia, uh, first round leader 65 to one.
34:29
I think he needs to be on weekly dude as a first round leader sniper." Good on you, Steve in Vegas. Nah, Siya. He's talking about Siya shot at him. Oh, Siya had him. Yeah.
34:37
I think St- Oh, I thought he was- I think Steve tailed along. Yeah. I thought he was telling Siya- [laughs]... that he had it and just tagging us. All right.
34:43
Well, congrat- Siya, by the way, Siya's ridiculous with first round leaders. Siya's ridiculous. Yes, he is. He's ridiculous. Uh, Jamie Leyva, um, "Correcting Gil on a golfer's name. We have come full circle, folks.
34:53
[laughs] Have a great weekend, gentlemen." [laughs] And Bill Hooker pointed it out too, "If you had Gil to not mispronounce any name, you lost before any t- at any tennis discussion. Bad beat."
35:03
[laughs] Uh, for those wondering, I, uh, pronounced, uh, I pronounced, uh, Akshay Batia, Osh-K Batia, so my bad. It happens. It happens. Um- Hey, it happens to the best of us. Okay? Happens to the best of us.
35:16
Um, we'll get to more tweets. I just wanna point out, um, an earthquake. A lot of my East Coast friends are texting left and right. I know it's all over the place.
35:23
There was an earthquake on the East Coast, and it's being felt in New York City, Philadelphia, Connecticut, all, uh, New Jersey, all up the sort of northeast, uh, corridor of the country there. It was a 4.7 magnitude.
35:37
Now, for those of us with San Francisco or California sensibilities, um, who have been through many- Way worse. Yeah... many, many, many w- earthquakes and, and worse, right?
35:47
Um, this never sort of moves the needle for us, but here's the thing with earthquakes. Uh, earthquakes don't kill people. Buildings kill people- Yeah... uh, kill people in earthquakes, so I hope everybody's okay.
35:56
Don't mean to make light of it, um, at all because, uh, you know, anything can happen. Just scary and weird when you see one in that part of the country. Yeah. If you're, and if you're not used to it.
36:05
Like the first time it happens, you're like, "What?" Yeah. In... Oh my God, that was an earthquake. So, and there's all kinds of different ones.
36:12
There's rolling ones that feel like it's rolling, like a truck's rolling down, and then there's some where it feels like...
36:17
I remember being at the top of a building in one, and it feels like a super power, uh, you know, grabs the building and shakes it once real quick, and you're like, "Oh my God."
36:28
So it's, uh, I hope everybody's okay, uh, on the East Coast, uh, that felt that, and, uh, good on, uh, good on all of you, uh, to, uh, get on social and check on everybody else.
36:40
A real quick follow-up on the NBA awards stuff we were talking. It looks like that first, uh, so y- first...
36:46
If it follows what it did last year, f- all the awards that are not MVP will be announced during the first round of the playoffs, throughout the first round. Throughout the first- On different nights...
36:55
but that's the thing. Yeah. Throughout the first round. Do we know which night? Nah, nah, they have nothing in, they have nothing official in that sense. They are so much more vague than baseball and football.
37:03
Th- so they do them on the TNT broadcast- Right... uh, like before the games like you were talking about, 'cause you turn it on- Come on, let us know... and you're like, "Hasn't been announced earlier." Yeah.
37:11
And then MVP, if it's done like it was last year, is in the second round. Okay. Is, is when they'll announce it. All right. So that narrows it down a little bit. Yeah. Jason Weingarten's a Californian.
37:21
He comes to us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern Cali @spreadapedia on Twitter. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. One of my friends actually looked up the, the stuff, the NBA stuff yesterday.
37:31
He said he expects the sixth man around, uh, April 20th, was when they did it last year. So I mean, I guess you could look up when they announced it last year and kind of get an idea- So earl-...
37:41
when they're gonna do it... so early first round. Sixth man might be first. But again, it's a little more nebulous than the other sports, uh, and you can't find the same thing Yeah, it's ve- very confusing. All right.
37:52
Um, Jason, by the way, you're an earthquake guy, right? Like, you... How, how many earthquakes do you think you've lived through in your life?
37:57
I mean, o- the, the only one of consequence was the, the Northridge earthquake. Northridge. Yeah The, the, the last big one in LA.
38:06
If you were, if you were of a certain age, there was the '89, uh, Bay Area Series, um, earthquake,
38:15
the, uh, Loma Prieta earthquake, which of course happened during the Oakland A's, San Francisco Giants World Series of 1989, where the Bay Bridge actually collapsed, um, one level onto the next, and there were fires in the Marina.
38:27
It was awful. But the people in Southern California in '93 when the Northridge earthquake occurred said that one was even worse. Some people were at both.
38:36
Obviously c- again, it's structures that, that harm during earthquakes primarily. Um, and so, um, just California... Those, those were the worst we ever had in California way back when. I was a, I was a wee lad- Yeah...
38:48
but I was in LA, uh, during that time growing up. Yeah. My- I remember my brother, everything fell off his walls in, uh, in, in LA. All right, Jason, um, what are you liking in baseball today?
38:59
Have you played anything yet? Just starting to. Um, honestly, I have not been super, uh, super excited about going crazy, you know, betting, betting a ton of stuff early.
39:13
I don't think I have ton of, ton of edges the first, the first week of the season, you know? I, I kinda think you're just throwing darts early. Um, I do, I do, uh, I do have my eye on the Marlins, though.
39:26
At this point, I think it's, uh, it's becoming an interesting situation. Yes, it is. It's rare that, that you see...
39:33
And I, I'm really disappointed that I'm a year, uh, I'm a year late on this, but it's really disappointing that you see, uh, teams really like, oh, they're gonna have to throw in the towel after seven games.
39:45
This is what I was talking about last year, and I was just a, a year too early there. It's gonna end up costing me quite a bit of money. Marlins are 0-8. Uh, the A's- 0-8, yeah... 0-8, yeah.
39:56
The, the A's, who now are moving to Sacramento for three years in a 10 to 14,000, uh, capacity ballpark, uh, they are, along with the Rockies, considered pretty much the de facto worst teams. Rockies are 1-6.
40:10
The A's are 1-6. Um, you don't view the Marlins quite as poor as those two franchises, do you?
40:16
I mean, the Marlins at least have more of a legitimate excuse in the sense that their entire starting rotation is just out, you know?
40:25
And you have a Cy Young winner and Yuri Perez, and you have guys like that, and they're not contributing. It's just sorta, well, what do you expect, you know?
40:34
Like, so at least they have, they have a little bit of an excuse. Teams like the Rockies and the A's, like, they're just fundamentally broken. Like, they're not, they're not capable of building winning teams, you know?
40:46
They're just, they're just there 'cause they have to be at this point. What are you betting on this weekend, Jason? I like the Orioles today. Um, it's not- Oh, you do like the Orioles? [laughs] Okay.
40:56
Well, it, it, it's not- Yeah... it's not so much, it's not so much of a, "Oh, I love the Orioles," or this, you know, "This number's this reason for this."
41:03
It's, uh, more of a fade on their, the rookie pitcher for, uh, the Pirates, Jones, who I, I think is, is good. He's, he had a really great first start. But this is a lot of helium for facing the, the Baltimore lineup.
41:17
I don't know. Uh, did, did you see what the Norfolk, uh, Triple-A Baltimore team did this week, by the way, Gil? They scored 26 runs last night. Oh, we saw that, yeah. We were talking about this.
41:27
Greatest Triple-A team of all time maybe? Uh, I don't know about greatest Triple-A team of all time. It's a very good, it's a very good roster. I, I was actually watching that game, or I was betting on it at least.
41:37
I don't really watch the Triple-A games. Uh, but, but the Balt- Baltimore, it's just they, they're doing things. It, it's fun to watch.
41:45
Um, there's a lot of talent still to come, uh, you know, stuck in Triple-A right now for various reasons.
41:51
Do you, do you anticipate the Orioles trying to capitalize on that talent if this is a year where it looks like they can fight for the, the entire thing, the World Series title?
42:02
Yeah, I mean, a lot, a lot of those guys will be up in a month or two. Uh, part of it's just they, they don't have the bats for some of these guys.
42:10
Some of these guys are stuck at, at Triple-A just, just simply 'cause they gotta get bats somewhere. There's no room. Yeah. There's no room at, at the moment. Um, but yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm...
42:19
Right now I'm mostly interested, like circling the, the really bad teams: the White Sox, the A's.
42:26
I'm not necessarily looking to, to lay, you know, minus 200 against the A's every day, but I really am looking early at, at circling the, the, the bottom four or five teams.
42:37
And I'm very content to continue to bet against them, uh, 'cause I just don't think they're gonna get any better. I'm talking about the Marlins, the A's. Yeah.
42:45
Um, you know, like what, what, what have you seen that makes you think these teams are all of a sudden gonna- Not a thing... turn a corner? Nothing, right?
42:52
So, um, till the market adjusts, I'll probably keep fading some of these bad teams and see what, you know, what gives. Are you money line parlaying against them? Is that what you're doing?
43:04
I have not thought about that, but that's definitely something, something I would consider.
43:09
Um, I don't, I don't know if that's necessarily an effective long-term strategy, but you know, I, I do enjoy doing some baseball parlays every now and then. [laughs] I do, I do dabble in a little parlay.
43:21
Well, 'cause people were asking about tanking NBA teams, like if that's the thing to do, and I, I d- Let's put it this way. If you made me do one or the other, I would do the baseball version of it. I really would.
43:30
'Cause I think these teams are so bad, and I know it's early, but good God. Um, I'm doing this thing which we're gonna update here with Velika momentarily.
43:38
I'm doing this March, April most wins bet on the Guardians, and it really does come down to, so much of it is how many times are you playing the A's, how many times are you playing the White Sox, right?
43:48
It's like that's the key, like, calculus of the whole thing. So, you know. To...
43:55
By, by the way, I love that bet because it makes you, it, it forces you to lock into baseball every single day, not only watching your team, but also trying to fade the teams that you're, uh, you're competing against.
44:05
Jason, appreciate it, man. Thank you. Thank you. Have a good weekend. Uh, if, if you're an NBA voter, you have to vote for Naz Reid. I don't make the rules, but that's the way it works.
44:17
[laughs] Jason does not make the rules. Jason Weigard, everybody, at Spreadapedia, has himself a little wager that he wanted to, uh, stump for right there. Chris Velika joins us, The Bear from Fox Sports.
44:27
A multitude of sports next on a Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
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