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Apr 7, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 7, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 7, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:09
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. Hey, yo. How we doing?
0:21
Un partido de, de numeros, for those listening in Spanish. Oh, muy bien. Um, I just wanna say this, everybody. If, uh, Kelly and I pass out before the two hours elapse, there's a reason for this.
0:31
Um, we are, uh, there's an inhalant. An inhalant, I believe that's the technical term here in the studio. I think so, yeah, yeah. It's a bit of a cloud. Um- There was some spray painting going on out- outside, I believe.
0:40
I just wanna, my inhalant rankings, I go gasoline number one. Oh, okay. Love the, love the smell of gasoline. Could chill in a gas station all day, be no, no, no problem for me. Glue number two.
0:50
Paint is the worst, and it smells like paint in here. Yeah. And there's a haze in here. Th- there's a legit haze in the studio right now. So yeah- All right... if, uh, if, uh- Work here...
0:59
you start seeing Gil or I wobble a little bit, th- that's what's going on. A little wobble. [laughs] A little wobble. A little wobble. Um, and not the dance either.
1:07
Um, on the show today, Paul Sporer on baseball, Jay Cohn on Ovechkin and hockey.
1:12
Uh, the home stretch of the NHL regular season, and Alex Ovechkin does the impossible, breaks the all-time goal record yesterday, um, in perfect fashion, by the way.
1:21
Right on his spot, uh, to the left of the goal there on a circle. A perfect slide afterwards, head first slide, picked up off the ground. It was awesome. And by the way, what- And the Caps lose...
1:31
and Friday night they didn't want to, uh, he didn't wanna go out there and score on an empty net, right? Which that's just awesome. That's awesome. Yeah.
1:38
I, I know a bunch of folks back in DC who had, uh, tickets for Thursday, so they're a little disappointed, but what are you gonna do? What are you gonna do, for God sakes?
1:46
Um, but I wanna get to the bottom of whether, uh, all this has hurt the Caps in the end. Uh, Wes Reynolds on, of course, the national title game tonight, and, uh, preliminary Masters thoughts.
1:55
And after the show, um, after Stormy's two hours, we're gonna do a m- a Masters beating the book podcast. That's right, we are.
2:02
Um, so pr- the, the prelim to the Long Shots podcast, you and Matt Brown will, uh, join us here in, join me here in studio. Mm-hmm, yeah. Okay. That'll be fun.
2:10
Digging into the Masters for a few hours yesterday, so ready to go, Gil. Ready to go. Ready to go.
2:15
Haven't fired on everything 'cause, uh, you know, Vegas is gonna take their sweet time posting odds for the Masters, but- Oh, when this state gets legitimate sports betting, it's gonna be on. Yeah.
2:23
NFL draft, we'll talk that as well. Kelly and I both making bets on that. Uh, of course, the headline is the national championship game tonight between Florida and Houston.
2:31
Florida and Houston, where this, uh, it started out as, uh, Houston as a one-point favorite. It is now Florida as a one-point favorite. A total at 141.
2:41
For those who are trapped, who were trapped under a heavy object on Saturday, and I know we're a day and a half later here, Kelly, but there are times where a day and a half later and we haven't had a, we haven't had our go at it.
2:52
Yeah. We need to have our go at it. Um, Florida had already advanced to the national title game, of course, with their win over Auburn. And then Duke is, I, can I say crushing?
3:04
I, I don't know if crushing is too hard, but, but they're up 14, Duke is, um, with just over eight minutes left in this game.
3:10
Matter of fact, we have a, uh, we have a tweet giving you the exact, um, well, win probability on this. But Duke has a, you know, Duke has a prohibitive win probability.
3:19
They're up 14 on Houston with over eight minutes left in the game. Um, exactly 8:17 left, 59-45. And at that point, by the way, we're sending back tweets and f- tweets back and, not texts.
3:34
Well, texts back and forth, not tweets.
3:35
Texts back and forth between us, me and some others as well, where it's like, wow, um, you know, if Houston's not shooting 9 of 17 from three at this point, they're pr- even if it's 6 of 17, they're down 20.
3:49
Right, it's a blowout. It's a blowout. You and I were right betting Duke early in the week. Mm-hmm. All of our guests who came on thereafter say, "Houston plus the points. Oh my God, they're ridiculous."
4:01
Um, and here it is from Evan Maya. This is, uh, Evan, uh, Miyaka- Miyakawa, who goes by Evan Maya on, uh, Twitter. With 8:17 left, Duke had a 98.5% chance of winning. And he says, "Then the Houston kill shot happened.
4:14
They outscored Duke 25-8 from that point on." But this is, this reminds me of when, when Parlay was producer five, and we talked about, like, in, the Auburn Virginia game, uh, in that tournament in 2019.
4:26
This was just epic. Because from that point forward, so down 14, Houston goes on a 10 to nothing run. 10 to nothing run to cut the lead to four.
4:36
Um, but Duke got two Proctor free throws and then a flag, Cooper Flagg splashed three to put Duke back up nine with 3:03 left in the game. So Duke's back up nine with 3:03 left.
4:49
By the way, that Flagg three-pointer, the only Duke field goal made in the last 10 minutes and 20 seconds of this ball game. [laughs] That alone- Incredible... is in- impossible, and yet that's the case.
5:04
Um, and at that point, Duke's up nine with 3:03 left. You're still in, in, you know, not only are you in win mode, you forgetta, forget that. You're not even thinking about that.
5:12
You're like, "Okay, well, they look like they're still gonna cover maybe here."
5:16
Uh, and I actually think the single biggest possession that gets lost in this happened then, which is that Duke is up nine under three minutes left. Houston has the ball. Uzoh misses a three. Tugler gets the board.
5:28
Sharp misses a three. Cryer gets the board. Tugler misses a nine-footer. He gets his own board, sticks it back. Uh, Sharp sticks it in for a layup to cut it to seven.
5:38
That possession was just Houston's scrappiness getting every board. Like, I, I remember Todd texting at that moment going, "Is, is Duke ever gonna get a rebound? Can we get a rebound here at some point?"
5:48
'Cause he had Duke. Um, so it's seven at that point. That's immediately followed by Proctor coughing it up. He did not have a good final stretch.
5:55
Um, two more free throws to knock it down to five, then they traded two free throws.
5:59
Then with Duke up five, uh, Joseph Tugler commits the technical foul by reaching over the out of bounds line to knock the ball out of Sion James' hands with 1:14 left.
6:08
And Kneppel hits the technical free throw, so Duke is still up six with 1:14 left in this game. Remember this- With a gift, too... you're still covering- Yeah... forget winning, you're still covering.
6:21
With, with a gift of a technical foul. Like, what are you doing? Textbook technical. Yeah. I'm like, [laughs] what are you doing? Yeah, I mean, the refs have no choice at that point, right? Yeah. Okay.
6:29
And then Kelvin Sampson and the coaching staff make a decision that I'm not gonna say I was questioning at the time, but I certainly was like, "Oh, that's a choice," which is they let the possession run. Mm-hmm. Right?
6:45
They're like, "Okay, we're down six, just over a minute left. Let's play this out." You know, the Jim Valvano days, you're fouling left and right here, and forcing one on, one-on-ones.
6:55
And so they play it out, um, and with just, you know, they, they pl- it goes, the shot clock goes al- almost all the way down and Kneppel misses the late shot clock layup. Tugler contested, he misses it.
7:07
Emmanuel Sharp three-pointer with 33 seconds left to cut the lead in, le- cut the lead in half to three. Then a steal by Wilson. Wilson misses the three, Tugler gets the board and, um, dunks it in on the follow-up.
7:22
Mm-hmm. Right? So instead of a tie game in one possession left territory, Houston is still down one.
7:31
In the end, it probably hurt Duke that they didn't, that Houston didn't make the three and had, and had the follow-up, too, to still be down one. Um, so at that point... Oh, so excuse me. Oh, right.
7:43
So at that point it's a, it's um, it's a one-point game. Proctor misses the one and one, which is, again, this is like you...
7:53
As you're watching this, you're like, "I cannot believe what is, what is just developing before my eyes." Proctor misses the one-on-one, and then Flagg gets fouled. You have to... This is the football thing.
8:03
Wait, football fouls are flagged. Flagg gets fouled here. Right, yeah. [laughs] On what is a terrible call. So all that said, right, Duke just gacking this away.
8:13
But Flagg gets fouled for the over the back on Juwan Roberts, which was ticky-tack. It's like the ref was waiting to make the call, like he couldn't wait.
8:21
He was staring at Flagg and Roberts passing the ball, like, "I can't wait to make this call." Yeah, it was a, that was an awful call. He makes the call.
8:26
And then Juwan Roberts, what, a 62% free throw shooter, nails them both, 'cause of course he does. Houston is up. What in the world is happening?
8:35
And then the, Duke's final possession, Flagg got the shot he wanted and he came up short. LJ Cryer hits two free throws, they're up three, and then the desperation three at the end. That's your ballgame.
8:44
Katie, bar the door. Unbelievable. I, I'm still in shock. I'm still in shock, Hill. It's a day and a half later, I still can't believe it. Yeah, me too. Me too. I, I mean, not even just wh- whatever with the bets, right?
8:55
Like, yeah, we were looking good- Whatever with the bets, right...
8:57
we were, we were looking good forever, but just the fact that we're sitting here today [laughs] and still we're talking about Duke losing this game, it's just mind-blowing what happened down the stretch.
9:05
And I, and I'm with you, like this is... I, I mean, good on Houston. I would've been fouling down the stretch. Like, that is, and it's really what helped turn the, turn things their way.
9:13
A couple things go their way, and all of a sudden they've got, uh, you know, they're down one and then get, then got a lead.
9:19
Um, but man, uh, the fact that we're sitting here today not talking about Duke being in the national championship game is just shocking. It's incredible.
9:25
Nine to nothing run for Houston in the final 35 seconds of this game. Does that ama- I mean, that's, that alone. It's wild. It's wild. No matter how, no matter how you break it down, whatever way you slice it.
9:33
And even, even, even throw all of this stuff out, right, Hill? Like, everything, where, how, how much Duke was up, how much... The, the drought they had at the end, the Houston comeback.
9:42
If you told Duke Cooper Flagg gets the shot he wants- Oh, they got-... with the game on the line... it was like a 12-footer. I mean, it was exactly what he wanted. It's exactly what you want. Yeah.
9:52
But give, give Houston all the credit in the world, and then, you know, again, when the line came out, the first line was Houston minus one, and I was mildly surprised by that.
10:00
Because everybody, I get r- there's recency, 'cause that was the game you just saw, but everybody just saw how miraculous, how fantastical that win was. So I figured Florida would probably open as favorite.
10:09
No, it is Florida as a minus one favorite. Um, but then after, you know, when Houston was the one-point favorite, my next thought after the initial mild surprise was,
10:19
these guys really gonna lose the national title after that? Mm. Yeah. I mean, nothing, nothing should scare them off at this point. Nothing is overcomeable, is not over...
10:30
You know, nothing is, is too daunting to be overcome with this team. It's amazing. Yeah, I agree with you. I don't know about you. Um, we definitely still lean to Florida.
10:41
Maybe I'll have a bet on Florida before, uh, before tip tonight, but nothing so far, because I, I think it would be Florida or nothing for me- It's, dude-... but after that game Saturday night... I'm just gonna say this.
10:50
Anybody who comes on the show, we're gonna have Dr. Bob on the show today, too. Yep. Dr. Bob with his last college basketball appearance.
10:55
Anybody who comes on the show today and dares say, "Oh, this team has, this team is clearly the better team and they're clearly gonna win this game," come on, at this point.
11:05
I don't think anybody will, but I'm just saying, if they did. E- even these, like, just we, we've been talking for weeks now about being in this, you know, in this era of these s- these super teams in college basketball.
11:15
These super teams can still go that, that long of a scoreless drought at the end of a game, it's just incredible. 10:20, one field goal made for Duke. The formula needs Houston.
11:26
Or if Florida wins, Todd Golden becomes the third exception in three and a half decades to the Sweet 16 prior experience clause, along with Danny Hurley in 2023 and of course Kevin Ollie in 2014.
11:40
Todd Golden trying to buck that. Houston's always been qualified. Uh, we'll come back. More on, uh, the weekend, including the race to 10 in baseball. Not so much. That's next.
11:51
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12:04
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12:15
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12:21
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12:35
Every sport, every edge, one price. Get full access now through August 1st for just $59 at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander.
12:46
We get tweets as we inhale paint fumes and are, uh, you are watching our slow demise, both of us. Gil's like, "I think it's a bit brighter in here today, too."
12:55
I'm like, "Nah, I think it's lit- legit, the smoke paint haze- It's-... that we have reflecting light." Not bright, yeah, blinding 'cause of the, the, like, the rays of light. Um, we had tweets beating the book.
13:05
Jack Olaquire. Hey, we met Jack Olaquire. Yeah. It says, "Gil and Kelly, heading down to Baton Rouge with my brothers Jim and Jeff." It's Jim, Jeff, Jack, and, and there was a fourth Jay.
13:15
Uh, "Just replayed Fezzik Friday. Could you please explain binomial distribution [laughs] in the hopes your ratings go up?" Yes. He caught my joke on- [laughs]... with Fezzik.
13:24
I'm like, "Yeah, keep saying binomial distribution, Fezzik." [laughs] Ratings are just dying. People tune in. Fake follower, "A couple of weeks ago, uh, I X'd you.
13:31
I bet one unit on each of your four formula picks that you gave, Duke plus 370, Auburn plus 340, Houston plus 750, and Florida plus 950," Florida being the fly in the ointment. "And I asked what could go wrong?
13:44
Evidently nothing. Tonight I'm paid for one of the two dogs. Thank you." You are welcome. So he is, he's good to go with, uh, Houston at plus 750 or Florida plus 950 tonight.
13:53
Chuckism1, "I don't know if I can trust any of your bets today. It might be the fumes." You're not kidding, man. Fair. I'm not sure I would either.
14:00
Anthony Ventresca, "I need your opinion on The White Lotus season finale. Also, let's go Gators."
14:05
Okay, I will not do any spoilers about The White Lotus season finale, because I wouldn't want anybody to do it to me because it's too close to the original air time. Okay.
14:13
We have to push White Lotus talk back a few days. I will just say this, I thought it lived up to everything. I thought the f- I thought the finale was great.
14:23
So- As painful as the season was, I thought the finale was great. In the end, it was all worth it? I don't know about all that, but it was, it was a, it was a satisfying final episode.
14:33
So next week when the Masters is over- Yes... green light or red light for Kelly to, to watch it? 'Cause I still haven't watched episode one yet. Green light it. What else you gotta do? Green light it.
14:42
Well, like, like there's so many good thing, good shows out there, you know? I, like I hate wasting time watching bad shows, you know? Uh, I'd say, I'd still say yes. Okay. I'd still say yes.
14:52
Uh, Ice Cold Gambler, "Do the, uh, do VSIN hosts have a h- over under on when Kelly weighs less than Gil? Kelly looking slim on the TV screen. Good work, Kelly. Way to stay committed to the workout."
15:01
What you trying to say, Jason? [laughs] Well, well thanks. I think I still got quite a ways to go, though, for that one. [laughs] Yeah, he's got a little work to do, my friend.
15:08
Mikey P, "One of the best sports times of the year. You guys picked the wrong week to start inhaling paint." [laughs] He's got the old, uh, the old shot from Airplane!, the movie from 1980. Oh.
15:16
"You guys picked the wrong week to start inhaling glue on that one." Uh, NCI 95 Gambler, "I hope you guys had a great weekend. Flying into Las Vegas Friday morning, would love to come say hi.
15:25
A question for the golf expert on the show. What are the best books that offer in-play [laughs] golf bets since I'll arrive one day after the Masters starts?" Gil chuckles.
15:33
Uh, uh, uh, MGM Caesars if you're looking to live bet the golf, but everybody will have stuff posted in between rounds if you're looking for something. For the, for the Masters in between rounds. Yeah.
15:43
For in-play, in round- Yeah, MGM Caesars... MGM Caesars.
15:47
And then, I mean, look, all, all the books will, but it's, it's, those would be the most reliable of when you can, when you can get on and make a bet at pretty much any time.
15:56
Uh, Stringfellow Hawker, buddy, he says, "Thanks for the recap. Had Duke, Houston under 64 and a half, and flag most outstanding player. Fell asleep in the middle of the second half.
16:06
Woke up to why are they interviewing Kelvin Sampson? What the hell happened?" Yeah, that's understandable. Bro, I'm telling you.
16:13
Trip Tepper, "Duke's inability to rebound and number 14 being a very skittish inbounder was the cocktail that sunk Duke. They looked like a team who didn't have a well-prepared press break.
16:24
Shire managed the last two minutes poorly. Kelvin worked him." Uh, I like a lot of that, including the, they apparently, you know, their, their lack of having games this season where they were in tight situations, right?
16:37
They only, like what, Kentucky, Kansas, they lost both of those. Those were tight. But other than that, they kinda had a cakewalk season. Mm-hmm.
16:43
And Houston was always playing, well, not always, but they had more close games here. So yeah, you're right about the inbounds passes. They just, they, it felt like a high school team that hadn't practiced that.
16:54
And I would add one more thing that sorta got lost in that last stretch of time.
16:59
There was a few open look threes that Duke had where they, on, in a normal free-flowing game, would've shot them, and I thought they were a little skittish on those as well, and that was flag and, and Knipple at, at one different point.
17:13
Um, and Stringfellow Hawk adds, "It's a huffing game with Gil Alexander and Kelly Bidlack." [laughs] It really is today. Um, we'll get into more college basketball again with our guest, Dr.
17:23
Bob Wes Reynolds, coming up here, uh, on the show. Uh, the race to 10 and the March-April market in baseball, which I have bets on in both, and because the Dodgers exist, neither really inspire much hope.
17:34
The race to 10, uh, could've been, could've been end, you know, could've ended yesterday. The Phillies came from ahead and then came from behind to beat the Dodgers. Uh, the Dodgers still lead, though, at nine and two.
17:48
Let's just start with the race to 10. The race to 10 could/should end today at Washington. Dodgers could get to 10 wins, and they'll get there alone if that's the case. Uh, here are, here are the records here.
18:00
This is supposed to apply, this, these both ap- you know, apply to both the race to 10 and March-April, obviously. Dodgers are nine and two. The Giants, who lead the NL West by percentage points, eight and one.
18:11
How about them Giants? Padres are eight and two. Rangers are eight and two. Look at the run differentials, by the way, in the second column. The Rangers are eight and two with a minus one run differential. Jesus, man.
18:23
You gotta try to do that. [laughs] That is impressive. And lo- Five and O and one run games... well, and that's why. Five and O and one run games for the Rangers, and they lost another game by 11 runs.
18:32
So that'll get you eight and two with a minus one run differential. Remember, run differential is a tiebreaker at Circa. Uh, Phillies and Cubs have each won seven. Cubs have lost five, though.
18:43
Phillies have only lost two. And then our race to 10 pick was the New York Metropolitans. They're six and three.
18:50
And by the way, when I was sort of mapping it out making that bet, Mets 17 to one to win the race to 10 pre-flop. Six and three is where I thought they'd be right now.
18:59
Didn't quite get there exactly the way that I thought they would, but six and three is where I thought they'd go because the schedule just crescendos for them in terms of ease in this, you know, race to 10 pocket.
19:08
But the Dodgers were so ridiculously good early that none of that will ultimately matter. Angels, Yankees, Red Sox also with six wins. So that's where we stand. By the way, my r- my March, April team, the Twins,
19:21
it could not have b- it, it, it could not have gone worse thus far. They had a six-run lead yesterday. They gacked that to the Astros. Oh my gosh. Yeah, so that's not fun.
19:29
I, I j- I can't get over the rest of these NL West teams. [laughs] Three NL West teams at the top. Giants, Padres, you're great, but, but you got no shot. That's ba- that's basically all I've heard.
19:39
That's all I've heard since the start of the season. Before the season, you mean? Yeah, yeah. Well, I mean, look, I, I love the Giants. You know me.
19:45
Um, that offense is not restaurant quality quite yet, but they got the, they do have sneaky good offensive players, I will say that. Like, Elliott Ramos is, is on fire early. Yaz is always clutch.
19:59
Can I call Mike Yastrzemski Yaz? I'm probably not. Yeah. Probably, probably not allowed to. You guys are close. Uh, yeah, well, no, we're, we're close. [laughs] Well, I think Carl Yastrzemski gets Yaz.
20:05
He, he might have an issue, yeah. Um, yeah, his grand- his grandfather. Um, but I, so I don't know how sustainable those are the Giants, although the Giants have, you know, good pitching.
20:14
And then the Padres are, are really great, too. So I mean, those three teams, who knows how long that could last for, where it's a three-headed monster towards the top.
20:21
But the Dodgers obviously the favorite, and they are the favorite to win the race to 10, which I don't know how many people had them race to 10 'cause the, the numbers were not very sexy to do that.
20:31
Uh, did you have a winner in golf this weekend? Oh, no, no, no, not at all. Not even close. No. Uh, congratulations, Brian Harman, getting a W again.
20:38
It was, uh, if you watched at all this weekend, the, this is y- you know, we probably don't talk about it enough with betting golf.
20:45
Sometimes weather just wipes you out, and that was like, I, I had some guys that were in the hunt in the race on Saturday, and Saturday morning I'm watching, and winds are blowing so hard the pins are, you know, basically bent in half.
20:58
And oh, man, e- every- everybody I had, Fleetwood, Keegan, Berger, all just went backward, backward, backward, and it just became survive as long as you could to the end.
21:07
And Brian Harman gets it done, so good for him back in the winner's circle, uh, after a, a British Open championship. What was that, last year? Year before?
21:15
How many Masters bets you gonna have available on the, uh, Beating the Book pod today? Well, let's see, Gil. Let's see. I made a few yesterday when some markets started to open up. I will have, I added one outright.
21:26
I did add one outright. Well, look at you. Um, and then I will have a few others.
21:31
I did add one placement b- uh, market bet, and then I've got a few others circled that I will, I will be betting, but just still waiting for shops to open up so I can correctly price shop. All right.
21:41
Are these are the old ones that you already talked about? The ones that- No, these ones, you can throw these up, guys. All right. Yeah, this is, this is kind of my updated portfolio so far.
21:49
So we had the two I made earlier in the season, Akshay and Sepp Straka on the outrights. I will be adding to Sepp. I'm, I'm, I'm n- not maybe in the outright markets.
21:58
I will be adding, though, a top five and top 20 on him. Um, I'm bullish on Sepp again, Gil. I still don't think the numbers, uh, are short enough on him overall. I, I really like him this week.
22:07
So, uh, Shane Lowry was the one outright. You, I think you're gonna hear him be pretty popular this week, but I understand it.
22:13
Ev- what he's doing, uh, on approach right now, what he's gonna be able to do around the, around the greens. We've had some weather down in the Augusta area here the past couple days. Supposed to get a lot of rain today.
22:24
Doesn't look like it's gonna be bad during the Masters, but you know if you get weather, Shane Lowry's never a bad look.
22:29
Uh, so played an outright on him and covered it with a top 10, and then I'm pretty heavy on a Morikawa top 10. I don't think I'm gonna go in an outright on him, though.
22:35
Yeah, looking, looking fairly pristine this weekend right now with the weather forecast at Augusta. But you know how weather works. Yep. Stuff changes. Uh, Joe Peeta's got a baseball play on the other side, as do I.
22:47
Paul Spohrer on Major League Baseball. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. You're probably not great at betting every sport. Let Rhythm help.
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23:18
What's that promo code, Kelly? What is it? VSiN, as in the Vegas Sports and Information Network. [laughs] I think it's Vegas Stats and Information Network, but sure. [laughs] That works.
23:26
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23:43
That's Kelly Biddle to my left, everybody. Uh, Joe Peeta has a, uh, baseball play. Would you like to hear Joe Peeta's baseball play today? What you got, Joe?
23:49
Uh, Joe Peeta, who on the year, on the year here on the show, 10 and eight for plus 1.83 units. So after a scorching start, uh, 10 and eight plus 1.83 units. And what did Joe say?
24:03
He goes, "I'll do it as long as people wanna see me in positive." But once it gets negative, he said it gets a little dicey. Is that the Roxy thing now?
24:11
Everybody, all of my, all my baseball guys, they're like, "As soon as it goes bad, I'm outta here," they say. Yeah. I don't know about that. Um, Joe is, uh, pumped about this one, though. He's got the Orioles today.
24:21
Baltimore Orioles is Joe's play. Orioles taking on the, uh, Arizona Diamondbacks, a little interleague play. Joe's got it at plus 109. That is exactly the price that it's available at right now.
24:31
Orioles plus 109 at Arizona today in Major League Baseball. I am, uh, you can predict what I'm gonna do, and I've already done it. I made a, a bet or two on this. The Athletics are back in Sac Town. Oh, yeah?
24:45
Yeah, you're very, I can tell- S-... you're very excited by this. So we're, we're go- we're going over? Yes, we are. It's at eight. It's at eight. Um, I got, I have two bets.
24:55
I have eight, over eight minus 142, I think I laid, and eight and a half, even money. I m- I made a couple bets at different times. I was like, "Oh, eight, eight and a half." Um, so I've got both of those.
25:07
Um, but I do have an eight at, at w- an extra juice. The eight and a half is the, we'll go with that officially, eight and a half, uh, even money. It's in Sacramento. It's Sutter Health Park.
25:17
Um, and I don't know if you heard my whole, uh, spiel on this last week, but essentially when you go from Oakland to Sacramento, everything you read about at off-season is, oh, the dimensions are the exact same thing.
25:30
Their in-play dimensions are the exact same thing, but the foul ground in Oakland, and I hear people parroting this now, even some people on this network. It's like, "Oh, you know what else I noticed? The foul ground."
25:40
Um, the foul ground in Oakland was such that f- that balls turn into outs, and they do so in a way where, where you're watching Major League Baseball, you don't really process it.
25:50
And so we'll keep going back to the well on this. This is Michael King against Luis Severino. Guess what? Fly ball pitcher, fly ball pitcher over in Sacramento today, Padres at Oakland.
26:01
They haven't really adjusted these numbers much. They haven't adjusted them at all. What's the, do you know what the to- do you know what the record is, like, on the totals? They're undefeated so far. To the over?
26:11
[laughs] Yes. It's only been three games though, I think. Right? Three. Right now. [laughs] Have I got that right? I got, do I have that right? I'll look it up.
26:16
Paul Spoor is here, ladies and gentlemen, not to be outdone, talking Major League Baseball with us, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow his work at FanGraphs, Sleeper and The Bust Podcast.
26:24
He joins us now from Austin, Texas, where we hope Charlotte, his dog, makes an appearance as well. How you doing, Paulie? I'm doing well. How are you? She's right over here. There we go.
26:33
[laughs] Charlotte over the left shoulder today. What did you say to, Kelly said to me, what did you say? You wanna be Paul's dog in, in another life?
26:39
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, in reincarnation I wanna come back as Paul's dog. Look how comfortable just that couch looks back there- [laughs]... we always see Charlotte curl up on. Henry over there. We got Charlotte here.
26:47
You, you'd be remarkably well taken care of. I'm- [laughs] See?... one of those people that is, uh, ve- very obsessed with their dogs and making sure that their lives are perfect.
26:56
Next, next time we have Spoor on, if you're just casually curled up in a, in the, on one of the couches, and like, "Is that Kelly right there?" Yeah, don't be surprised. Yeah. Yeah.
27:03
Um, okay, Paul, let me just ask you this. What of these- Yes... is sustainable, what is not? Let's go through some of these teams, okay? Yeah. Obviously we're, we're not even at 10 games yet, um, in most cases.
27:15
San Francisco Giants, let's start there. Eight and one. Now, when I say sustainable, I'm not saying they're gonna have that pace. At, right. But generally speaking, sustainable or unsustainable?
27:27
You know, Gil, I'm pretty tough on your team right to your face often. [laughs] But I see a little bit of heat here.
27:34
I gotta be honest, I absolutely adored the Willie Adames move, um, after really liking the Chapman move the year before.
27:42
So two key moves to establish a beautiful left side of their infield, which not only has the benefits of their offense, but their defense is really gonna help all of their pitchers.
27:51
Even if you're not a heavy ground ball guy, any ground ball you get over there, you're gonna feel very comfortable. It's gonna be played brilliantly.
27:57
And then you've got guys like Jung Hoo Lee, and Eliot Ramos, and Patrick Bailey, kind of the youngish core that's coming up. You know, uh, Jung Hoo Lee's a little bit older.
28:06
Uh, Eliot Ramos I think is in his age 25 season. Age 25, I think, for, for Bailey as well. So they're not super babies. Uh, age 26, in fact, for Bailey. But they're young for this team, for sure.
28:17
So they now have more than half their lineup, uh, is kind of intriguing guys on the right side of 30. Chapman's a little bit over, um, and then those other four guys, so not quite, uh, not quite half their lineup there.
28:30
I fudged it a little bit. I'm not as big on Tyler Fitzgerald.
28:33
I'd like to bring him into the mix, but I just don't believe it, so I'm not gonna lie to you there and say that, uh, 27-year-old Tyler Fitzgerald fits there too.
28:40
But the pitching was something I already liked for this team. So now that they're adding a compelling, uh, lineup to the mix, I do think there's some viability here. This is a bloodbath division.
28:52
I'm really eager to see how these teams are gonna beat up on each other. But you have four teams now that I feel really strongly about.
28:57
I already like the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks, and I'm being swayed by this Giants team early on. They have to stay healthy, as does any team, but I think they really have to. They don't have depth. They are old.
29:08
So I think they're on a little bit more of a line. But if they do find a, a good bit of health in San Francisco, I think that they're gonna be, uh, competitive again this year. Uh, division odds, 19 to 1.
29:20
Would you take a swing at that? I have a hard time getting away from the Dodgers there, and this is w- uh, as somebody who picked the Diamondbacks to win the World Series. Okay.
29:29
So, you know, you got somebody upending things when you get in the playoffs there, but it's hard for me. I think I need a more enticing number, and the fact that they started eight and one- Yeah...
29:38
is why the number isn't quite as enticing as it, as it could be. Maybe wait for them to hit a lull.
29:43
If you really like it, you really wanna get in on the Giants for the division 'cause you just really got a feeling, let 'em lose four in a row and then jump in.
29:50
You got plenty of time still where these numbers are gonna go up and down. I don't think right now is the time to go for it at, when they're eight and one.
29:56
Uh, Texas Rangers, eight and two out of the gates, uh, a year removed from their World Series title. Five and 0 in one run games with a run differential of minus one. Maybe I'm answering the question.
30:08
Sustainable or unsustainable? Actually, uh, at that clip, no, of course not, right? If they, if they keep under a negative run differential. But I don't believe that they're going to, is the thing.
30:18
I think the offense will get better as the season goes, kinda make up for the pitching, uh, maybe, you know, riding hot right now and maybe not being as strong as it's been. Uh, plus I think they'll add in season.
30:29
I think this is a good team. I, I really felt all the way that Texas and Arizona had classic World Series hangovers. That's why I like both this year.
30:37
I don't have them going back to the World Series against each other, but I have Texas making the playoffs, making some noise, and as I mentioned, Arizona winning it.
30:43
So I like both of the 2023 World Series participants to bounce back this year. So at this level, the way they've done it, no, of course not sustainable.
30:51
But will they get better and smooth out things like their run differential in Texas? I believe so. So, uh, pretty sustainable in general. Again, not an 80% winning clip, but at a, at a high-end winning clip.
31:03
Uh, the last one, bizarro version of this. I think I know the answer, but I have to ask. Atlanta Braves, 1-8. They continue like that, or does this turn around dramatically? I think it turns around dramatically.
31:13
This is one of those teams that, you know, everyone has as a, as a contender on some level, whether you have them winning the division or not, and they're off to a wretched start.
31:22
And I'm not gonna say that we wouldn't notice a 1-8 run in July if it happened, but we wouldn't be freaking out. We're freaking out because it's the beginning of the season, and we wanna change all of our priors.
31:31
I don't see anything that has changed here in, uh, in nine games that would completely take me off this team. You know, they got the Reynaldo Lopez injury. Okay, that's a bummer.
31:41
They still got two studs at the top there with Sale and Schwellenbach. Uh, I'm a big Grant Holmes fan. I like him in the middle there. A.J. Smith-Schauver's a compelling young arm, and of course Strider's coming back.
31:50
That's the thing, too. They're adding two MVP, you know, top of their scale candidates. A Cy Young candidate and an MVP candidate are gonna come back.
31:58
And obviously they wanted to just kinda hold the fort until then, and they started 1-8. But I just, I just don't see this continuing.
32:04
This feels like Houston last year, where we wanted to bury them, and we even got to a point. And I'll, I'll raise my hand. I got to a point.
32:10
They were 19 and, like, 35 or something, and MLB now starts running the numbers. No team that's ever been 19 and 35 has made the playoffs, this, that, and the other. I'm like, dang, maybe they really are in some trouble.
32:20
And they came out of it. And I think this Braves team is even more talented than that Astros team, so no, I cannot quit the Braves. I thought you would say that. All right, DFS to take us out.
32:29
So, uh, we're looking at a pretty fun day today because there are a lot of good pitchers. It's, uh, it's not quite an ace day, but there are some guys at the top that, that you can be very interested in.
32:39
Logan Gilbert, um, in Seattle against Houston. Houston, a tough lineup, respect them, but in Seattle I'm always interested in, in the Seattle pitcher. You mentioned Michael King going to the Athletics.
32:49
That could be a little bit dicey because of that park for sure, but Michael King is a stud. I like Justin Steele versus Texas, and I like Logan Webb versus Cincinnati. Webb, Gilbert, and Steele are all at home.
33:00
And look, I've been wrong so far on Hunter Green. Uh, uh, he was a fade for me this year. I still have some concerns about him maintaining his home run rate, but he's looked great so far.
33:09
He has the best stuff plus in baseball right now. He goes to visit your Giants. That's gonna be a really interesting match up. And of course, Kodai Senga versus Minneso- uh, Miami, excuse me, you gotta love.
33:19
Don't sleep on K- if you want to zig, don't sleep on Casey Mize against the Yankees. That's all I'm gonna say. That, that, that's a risky one, but that's a good zig if you wanna get off the board there. I like zigging.
33:29
Um, real quick, yes or no answer. Would you have given Vlad 14 years, 500 million? Yeah, if I, if on the Blue Jays specifically, because they can look at it as the grand picture.
33:38
When he was putting up, like, eight WAR, they were paying him $12. Okay. So they can kind of look at it as the entire picture. I love when the players get paid, especially gener- Thank you, Paul. All right.
33:46
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34:01
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34:13
Don't miss out. Bet smarter today at firstbet.com. Gil Alexander, we got tweets that beat the book. All- Jesse, Jesse Welch just got me. [laughs] Just got you.
34:22
That was me laughing coming back from a break at Jesse's tweet. Oh, we'll get, we'll get there. JD in Florida. Uh, didn't know Jason Weingarten moonlighted as a painter. Haze and fumes everywhere.
34:32
You're not kidding, man. I don't know if we're gonna make it. I think it's getting better in here. Okay. I, I don't know. I just called the network by the wrong name last segment, so. Yes, he did.
34:40
He has no idea where he works. For eight years. Chuckism1. Hey, if Kelly passes out, can I be producer number 10? Yes, it's yours, Chuck. [laughs] That's how it works. Whoever gets to the chair first. That's it.
34:51
Whoever gets to the... That's right. If Kelly goes to the ground, not only will I not help him in getting up- That's right... whoever gets to the chair, chair first. Primetime, cowboys_cubs1. Yo. Hey, man.
35:01
Lean in and listen very carefully. Inhale. I highly recommend inhaling. I've done all I can do. #suckitfezzik. [laughs] Fezzik does not like that, that, uh, close that I have. We've done all we can do.
35:11
[laughs] He doesn't like that. Thank you for noticing, Primetime. Best li- listeners notice everything on this show. I love you guys. Brian Schaefer. Not so fast, Gil, with the race to 10. Listen to this, he says.
35:22
I would say your Giants will get it. Raining on East Coast, uh, right now. The Dodgers will get rained out today. The Giants will win and have nine wins, and then it'll come down to tomorrow, and guess what?
35:33
The Dodgers might get cold canceled tomorrow. It will be in the 20s. So he's saying they might get a game canceled because of cold tomorrow. Hmm. That's his prediction. Okay. Now, can you imagine
35:45
if that's what prevents the Dodgers to win the race to 10 and somebody else sneaks it in? Somebody else is gonna be the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear.
35:52
And by the way, what, what gets me about this is- What a brutal loss that would be... this will just, this will just tease us because the Mets will get to about eight when this happens. Right, right, yeah. Eight or nine.
36:01
Yeah. Oh, so close once again. Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panties. I know it's Shock G. Don't send me emails. I tell you what, Gil.
36:10
After watching Duke beat the brakes off of Bama, I was so confident they'd win the whole thing that I cashed out my plus 440 Florida ticket and put it all on Duke to win the whole thing. Finish me. [laughs] Finish me.
36:20
It's the first time we've ever got a tweet where somebody said, "Finish me." Oh, I, I, I, I found another useful, uh, cash out option tip, uh, out there- Oh... for, like, where the cash out option becomes actual useful.
36:31
I mean, Matt Brown and I were talking about this. Uh, when you have golf bets that have, like, definitely lost- Yes... I'll take anything back. You'll take anything. I'll take anything back.
36:40
It's a fantastic strategy, Kevin. I, I had Tommy Fleetwood, top Englishman, he was like the third Englishman- [laughs]... down the leaderboard with no shot.
36:48
You, you were like- And I was like, "Yes, I will take $6 back, thank you." I was gonna say, $6 and 8 cents? That's right. Give me that. Yes. Uh, this is, uh, Drew from Boise. Oh no, there's so many of these.
36:56
Frank Doyle, "Found I have a, uh, 20 to one Draymond to win Defensive Player of the Year ticket over the weekend. I knew this must have come from a numbers game.
37:03
Dug back in the recent archives and yes, on November 21st at the twen minute, 20 minute, 25 second mark, Zach Cohen mentions Green as a potential, uh, Defensive Player of the Year candidate as he will, quote, 'lobby for himself on his podcast,' unquote."
37:17
Zach Cohen did text me saying that he absolutely remembers saying this on our air. Yes. And, uh, we'll never forget it. Did he remember also ruining the show, uh, Impractical Jokers with a comment as well?
37:29
[laughs] Drew from Boise, "Gil, Posey's Giants are running, stealing, going first to third, second to scoring, and have an awesome bullpen. Six innings and over pressure, bust pipes." Don't I know it, Drew.
37:40
Watched every one of these games so far. Chance Copperpot, "Yo, I'm on a heater. Do you lower your bet size the longer a good run lasts? I know the losses are coming. What say you?"
37:50
Chance, you would be the first guy I know who does that actually, but I understand what you're saying. 'Cause you feel doom is p- is impending. Yeah. I want, I almost wanna say this is smart thinking. Yeah.
37:59
I almost wanna say it too, but- 'Cause nobody asks that. They usually ask the opposite, right? Right. I'm on a heater- Yeah... let me double- Yeah, let me step it up... let me double, triple what I'm betting.
38:07
But is it worse to then continue your heater and then you pare it down artificially? I, I, I wouldn't. Yeah, I wouldn't do it. I, I would be betting what you've been betting. If I'm being honest, I, I wouldn't do it, but
38:18
I hear what you're saying, Chance. We'll do more tweets 'cause there's tons. We wanna get to Jake.
38:21
Jake Hahn joins us now courtesy the Progressive Guest Line, co-host of The Point, the fantasy hockey show on SiriusXM channel NA, uh, SiriusXM NHL that is, @JayHahn4. That's the number four, H-A-H-N. Jake,
38:34
I'll meet you on the corner of, uh, Spadina, and I couldn't think of another, uh, w- cross section there in Toronto. How you doing, man? S- Sp- Spadina and Bloor is a safe play.
38:42
I can meet you at Spadina and Bloor, no problem. It's a little busy. I, I don't know, maybe we'll pick a, pick a more quiet spot to meet up. But it's good to be with you guys. This is my favorite time of the year.
38:50
I think like a lot of sports fans, April is just, it's special, right? Final Four over the weekend. We got the championship tonight.
38:56
It's Masters week, so I know me and Kelly are, are fired up for that, and hopefully the weather's turning.
39:01
It, it, it really isn't where I am, guys, but, uh, hopefully it's turning where, where you guys are and it's getting a little bit nicer, and, uh, hockey playoffs right around the corner as well. So- Yeah...
39:09
I'm in a, I'm in a great mood on this Monday. It was spectacular weekend. Uh, Vegas weather-wise here was for sure. Let me, let me ask you real quick then. Masters, have you made any bets before we get to hockey?
39:18
Any Masters bets? Uh, Collin Morikawa 18 to one is in for, for the Masters. Now, a little concern maybe about the weather coming up for this weekend.
39:27
Some early projections looking like it could be cold, maybe a little bit of rain, particularly on Friday.
39:32
So if you wanna fire up the Euro grinder angle, maybe this is, maybe this is the type of Masters we go back to when Danny Willet won it and when it's a little lower scoring and, and cold weather comes into play.
39:43
Sometimes you maybe favor those Euros. So obviously Morikawa isn't that angle, but three straight top tens here at this tournament, guys. He's proven to be a, a major player. Big tournaments, majors, he steps up.
39:54
He's usually in the mix. He's won a couple before, so I trust him here.
39:58
And I think at 18 to one compared to some of the players around him, uh, in a tournament where I feel like there's probably only maybe 10 guys that can win when they show up, I, I think Morikawa gives you some pretty good value here.
40:08
Um, okay, to hockey. Alex Ovechkin does the unthinkable. 895 goals. Again, his 895th, got his 895th yesterday on Long, uh, in Long Island. Uh, Caps loss. It, it's just unbelievable. I, I wanna just take a moment again.
40:23
Like, this was something we thought with an age curve that he wouldn't get till maybe late next year, and then all of a sudden this year happened, and it was fitting. It was right on his spot, right?
40:34
Um, just a, a s- a, a one-timer. He goes into the head first dive. There he is getting champagned by his teammates, um, and then picked up and the celebration ensued. It was just amazing.
40:45
I, I guess your thoughts on that, but really the question I wanna ask you is while the Caps are, you know, deadlocked, they're not deadlocked, but they're in a dog fight with Winnipeg and Dallas for the most points this season in hockey.
40:58
Recently, the Caps have lost five of seven, and my question is more- Yeah... to you about has this hurt the Caps in some way, this pursuit?
41:06
Oh, no, it's, it's an excellent point because watching this team all year, Gil, I've been waiting for them to hit a speed bump.
41:12
They've been the most consistent team in the NHL, never losing two, three in a row, never letting anything bleed longer than a, a week, right? And it's a long season.
41:20
Even the best teams go on some sort of losing streak at some point. It just never really happened for Washington.
41:25
The last couple weeks amongst this OV great chase and everything that's been going on, they've quietly had some really bad results, Su- Sunday included, losing 5-1, uh, to an Islanders team that's likely not going to make the playoffs.
41:37
They gave up eight goals to the Sabres a couple weeks back as well, so some concerning results. But I think this happened at the perfect time for them.
41:44
With a few games left, if, if the OV chase bled into the last game or two of the season, I think things could get a little bit dicey, but the fact that they can celebrate, put this behind them, have the, the positive vibes, and now get back to playing the Capitals hockey that they've been playing all season with a few games left, maybe even get Ovechkin some rest as well, which could be crucial for an older player.
42:04
I think this happened at the perfect time for Washington, and they're staring down a first round matchup with the Montreal Canadiens, which on paper may look easy, but a Habs team playing with confidence, uh, with those home games at the Bell Center, that could be a dangerous potential first round matchup.
42:17
So they definitely need to tighten it up here over the next week or so. Yeah. I think, I think that's a pretty good sentiment, that, uh, it's over now. Good for the Caps.
42:25
They got it over when they did as they go for their, uh, fourth President's Trophy, and then obviously what they really care about is a great performance, uh, in the postseason.
42:33
What did you land on today, Jake, in the NHL? Yeah, for, for the NHL today, look, the big story today, guys, uh, is the St. Louis Blues going for win number 13 in a row. 13.
42:43
Now, the NHL record, if you're wondering, for wins consecutively, is actually 17. The Blues can't get there this year. They can max out on 16.
42:50
They don't have enough games left to get to 17 wins in a row, so it would actually have to carry over to next season. This is probably the toughest game le- left on, on their calendar.
42:58
And I think it's interesting from both angles, because Winnipeg needs this one bad. They wanna lock up the Central division. This is a huge game for the Jets, and St. Louis just doesn't lose right now.
43:07
So you can make a strong case for Winnipeg here on home ice.
43:10
All good things come to an end, streaks end, but at this point, I'm taking the Blues at anything plus money, guys, and I'm just gonna ride this win streak, because the way that they're playing, they're finding different ways to win games.
43:20
They beat a good Avalanche team over the weekend.
43:23
You can argue this is a tough spot i- in Winnipeg, but I, I just think they're playing better hockey than the Jets right now, so I, I'm gonna take the Blues at the plus money price. You're gonna take the Blues today.
43:31
Hope, uh, Winnipeg, uh, closes out better than OKC did, Kelly. Yeah. Oh, jeez. That was not fun for those of us who wanted them to get to 70, and, uh, that's a whole 'nother story.
43:41
Uh, okay, uh, just one team under the radar before you go. Give us one team that most people aren't thinking about that you think has value to win it all once they get in the playoffs.
43:50
So it'll tie into a, a play I could make tonight, guys. Love the LA Kings on home ice against the Seattle Kraken. Puck line, regulation, w- however you wanna play it to get some better odds.
43:59
I like the Kings, and they would be that team for me, maybe not necessarily lying in the weeds, Gil, but they have not had a good time against Edmonton in the playoffs over the last few years.
44:07
Potentially could get them again. I think this is the year you see the LA Kings finally beat the Oilers. Jake, love it. Always great to see you, man. Thank you. Always a good chat with you boys.
44:17
Uh, uh, enjoy Masters Week. Yes, you too. What a, what a great week it is. A tradition unlike any other.
44:22
We'll of course have full Masters talk as the week progresses, and a special Beating the Book podcast with Kelly and Matt today on that subject as well. Wes Reynolds has some thoughts on that and more.
44:32
Title game tonight. That's next, right here on The Numbers Game.
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