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Apr 7, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 7, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 7, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
0:08
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSIN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It's my little buddy, Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Yeah. Kelly- Right here on the Vegas Stats and Information Network. [laughs] I just stepped outside, got a breath of fresh air. I'm feeling a lot better.
0:26
I know what you did. You stepped outside 'cause you wanted to, like, memorize the name of the company that you work for. [laughs] Like, Vegas Stats, I gotta remember this.
0:34
Um, still to come this hour, Bob Stoll, you know him as Dr. Bob, and Wes Reynolds standing by to talk, uh, Masters and college hoops with us. Yeah. Uh, first though, our VSIN bracket challenge update.
0:45
We didn't update the bracket challenge. Oh, yeah, let's go. I, I don't know where I'm at. I went one and one, so, uh, am I still right there? Uh, you can't win. Ah, shucks. Where's Matt Brown at? Is he still leading?
0:55
Matt Brown in first place. Wow. Matt Brown would have it clinched, but for one thing, that in tie range is Jensen Lewis, co-host of By the Books. Ooh. So Matt Brown's got 60 points, Jensen's got 50.
1:10
Tonight's game is worth 10.
1:12
So if Jensen hits his bet tonight and Matt does not hit his bet, now of course what Matt could do, 'cause Jensen's game theory here was not very good, 'cause Jensen, Jensen already put in a pick. He already submitted?
1:26
He put in under 142 on the Florida-Houston game. Oh, you- So now we-... we know what Matt's doing... so Matt can just match that. Now, if Jensen is smart, he's faking him out, right?
1:36
And he's leaving that up for as long as he can, then he's gonna get Matt to match it, and then he's gonna go to something else.
1:42
Because if Jensen hits his bet and Matt does not, Jensen wins because he got, the tiebreaker would be, and tonight's game is worth 10 points, it would be a tie between those two, the tiebreaker is most points in the last round.
1:56
So Jensen would win it. I mean, I don't wanna text Jensen to purposely fake out Matt. I, I will text Jensen and purposely tell him to fake out Matt.
2:05
But I kinda wanna give him a heads-up of I know exactly what Matt's gonna do. Now, in the real standings, the listener standings, which w- first prize is $3,000, second prize 1,500, third $500.
2:16
The, the one that matters a little bit more. The one that matters a little bit more, it's a log jam up at the top.
2:21
But, uh, Omar Ara, Donald Cho, we're only getting the first three letters of their last name, both tied with 70 points. Omar 29, eight, and two, Donald 26, 12, and one.
2:32
But then you got a couple guys at 69, you got a third guy at 68, so it's anybody's game. We'll see. We shall see. I, I'm just li- like, there is, you and I have known Matt Brown for, for many, many years.
2:45
Wow, since we were, since we were children.
2:47
What percent chance is he, is he going to check if Jensen, or to check standings, then see who's in sh- uh, uh, who, who, who's got a chance to catch him, see if they've submitted their selection- 100%. 100%. Of course.
3:01
I know what he's doing. Yeah, Jensen. Jensen, what are you, b- but maybe Jensen is outfoxing him, though. I don't know. He might be. He might be. Say again, Reynolds?
3:08
See, Jensen, Jensen strikes me as too above board to do that, though. Jensen strikes me as, "That's my pick and I'm going with it." That's what I think so- Yeah... too.
3:17
Well, we gotta, we gotta make sure he plays this correctly. It's all game theory at this point, boys. Wes Reynolds joins us now, ladies and gentlemen, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
3:26
You can find him on Twitter @wesreynolds1. That's the number one. He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Wes? I'm doing well, guys. How are you? I'm doing well.
3:35
You would do the same thing, right? If you're Jensen, just fake him out and just go something else right at the last minute. One, 100%. Yeah. 100%. Got to.
3:43
There, there, there, there are no Marquee of Queensbury rules here in this- [laughs]... uh, VSIN bracket challenge. I have no idea what that means- Me either [laughs]... but that's fantastic. Me either, but I love it.
3:53
Marquee of Queensbury. [laughs] I love it. Yes. Um, okay, well, let's start with college hoops. We'll, we'll crescendo to the Masters. The Duke finish against Houston, you are a basketball historian of sorts.
4:07
Where does that rank for you in just the all-time epic collapses given the stage? Yeah, it, it certainly has to rank up there high.
4:16
When you, when you look at Houston being down, uh, 14 with 10 minutes to go, it's like, okay, this team, this team just can't make enough shots, you know? Here we go again with Houston, right?
4:27
Uh, they can't make enough shots. The offense is getting clamped down. But the one thing about Kelvin Sampson's teams is that defense stays true for 40 minutes, and, and that's what they're gonna do.
4:39
They're gonna keep guarding. They're gonna keep trying to rebound and get stops, and that's what they did against Duke. Duke didn't make a basket for the final 10:31 of the game.
4:49
So, you know, it o- only got to the line a, a few times, and Houston just kept guarding and guarding and kept, you know, leaving them one and done, not giving up any offensive rebounds, and that was what was most impressive about Houston.
5:02
They are plus 11 in the rebound margin against a Duke team with a lot of size, uh, not only Cooper Flagg, but the big 7'2" kid, Malachat, who by the way did not have a rebound- No... in the game.
5:13
This is a guy that's gonna pr- probably be a lottery pick in the NBA draft. Certainly probably worked his way up, the, uh, young man out of South Sudan, and just, it was a non-factor.
5:23
And Houston this year has been different than previous years where they've had shot makers, and they've had guys like Jamal Shed.
5:30
They've had guys like Marcus Sasser that can make big shots but aren't necessarily great shooters. Well, this year they have LJ Cryer, who's the guy that kept them in the game.
5:40
Uzoh was dealing with foul trouble, and Emmanuel Sharp was the guy that made them late and, and really kept them in.
5:46
And I just thought the poise of Houston not panicking Because K- Kelvin Sampson said after the game they'd been in this situation before, and they had on the road against Kansas.
5:56
I remember they were down six with, like, 20 seconds left to go in regulation, and they forced overtime at the fog and eventually won in double overtime.
6:04
They were in this situation in Arizona where they were down in the final few minutes in the second half. So this team just stays composed, and they stay together and, you know, were able to pull it off.
6:14
And, and press offense I think has gotta be, like, topic A at, at basketball coaching clinics across the country. Because Duke- Oh... acted like they had never seen a press before- Never... because they hadn't. Yeah.
6:25
Because they'd b- they were up in all these games in the ACC. And, you know, when you're up 15, it's like, well, they're really not pressing you here in the final seconds, and, and Houston did.
6:34
And Houston's ferocious enough in half court defense, and, and then in press defense they certainly were and got those turnovers. And then they get the ball out of Flagg's hands, make Proctor shoot the foul shot.
6:46
Proctor is only 69%. He hits the, or misses the front end, and it just all kind of snowballed and all bit by bit, little by little, just kind of worked out for the Cougars late.
6:57
Mal watched, put some numbers, uh, to what you were saying. Minus 20 plus minus in 21 minutes. Not good.
7:04
Uh, and we went through this in the first segment sort of guessing line style, which is just there were so many moments in that run.
7:09
And by the way, it was one field goal in the last 10:20, that Flagg three that splashed in. That put Duke back up nine with over three minutes left.
7:17
And there was that possession at that moment where Houston had four shots at it on one possession. They kept getting boards before Sharp put in a layup to cut it to seven.
7:29
And it was sort of an innocuous possession at the time, 'cause you're like, "Well, they're still down seven," right? There's, you know, it's, it's two and a half minutes left or whatever it was at, right at that moment.
7:38
But that, you look back on it, they needed every one of those, right? They need that possession just as important as anything else. That was big.
7:46
And then the other one I brought up, Wes, was then after the, the tech, right, where, uh, where Tugler reached over the out of bounds line, uh, and knocked it out of Sion James' hands, and then Knipp- uh, Knipple hits the, uh, hits the free throw, the tech, to put Duke back up six.
8:02
There's 1:14 left, and Kelvin Sampson says, "No fouls, we're playing this out." In that moment, were you surprised, or were you like, "It's exactly what he would do"?
8:12
I was surprised actually, because, uh, you know, when, when Tugler got that T, you thought, "Okay, now it's over. Now you're getting into the foul fest."
8:19
So now if you're on the under here, you're like, "Oh man, here we go. This is gonna last for about 25 minutes here in, in real time," 1:17 on the clock, 'cause it's gonna be foul city down the stretch.
8:32
But Kelvin does not foul, and Kelvin's a little bit more conventional.
8:36
Because if you saw in the first half, and this is one thing I do disagree with, uh, is with a lot of coaches, not just Kelvin Sampson, where you get a player with two fouls and he auto benches him immediately. Yeah.
8:47
And I don't, I don't, I, I like it when you roll with it. It's like sometimes you gotta say, and as simple as this sounds, "Don't foul. You know, ju- just don't foul here. You got two," instead of auto benching.
8:57
But yeah, he does not foul, so 47 seconds left to go. Knipp- Knipple, uh, misses the layup, Tugler gets the block, Sharp goes down and hits a three.
9:06
Well, there's only, like, 32 seconds left, so it's like, well, now you can't play it out. This is not the NBA where you got a 24-second clock. And, and was able to do that, and was able to pressure the turnover.
9:17
They get the lay in, and then the pressure where they get the ball, like I was saying, out of Proctor's hand, or into Proctor's hands and that was the key. You did not want Flagg up there.
9:27
You did not want, uh, any of, any of the other guards or Knipple up there. I think Knipple's, like, over 90%, and Flagg is in the mid-80s, so you didn't want those guys at the foul line.
9:37
And they got the right guy at the foul line, and then Houston, uh, ends up pulling it off. Roberts gets fouled and takes the lead for good.
9:43
It's so amazing though, 'cause and I pointed this out in the first segment too, is w- with that, you know, the inbounds pass that got stolen, they miss the three and then they get the follow-up jam to cut it to one, right?
9:54
If they make that three, it plays out differently too, because then they don't foul. Houston get... Uh, D- Duke gets one shot to either win or we go to overtime, right?
10:02
So everything worked out almost perfectly for, uh, or exactly, you know, as it should have for, for Houston to have pulled this off. It's just an incredible ending. And so it comes after that game, Houston is installed.
10:13
You can't make a bet unless it's installed, uh, Wes. I don't know if you know that. Houston a one-point favorite, now Florida's a one-point favorite.
10:20
Do you agree that if this were not a national title standalone, that n- that most people would opt not to bet this, and they would just sit back and enjoy a game that who knows at this point who would win?
10:31
More than likely, because it, it i- it is I think a coin flip game.
10:34
These have been two of the top teams in all the metric sites, the, the KenPom and the Bartorvik and Haslam, and everybody that does these metric sites, Evan Maya, would have these two teams as top four teams in America, and they certainly are, uh, by getting to the national championship game.
10:50
Uh, so it really is, there, there's any number of ways I think this could go, and you could make a case really for either side. I personally bet Houston, uh, plus one tonight.
10:59
I just, I'm gonna go with the team that can put clamps on you defensively, and the team that can slow the game down and make it more of a half court game.
11:07
We saw Florida and Auburn, which was up and down, but it still went under the total.
11:12
I just think I'm gonna go with the team, if it's gonna be tight, which I think it is, the team that can slow the game down, and I think that's Houston. Yeah, Houston. Formula play, Kelly. Formula play on Houston.
11:22
That's right. They apply. Todd Golden trying to buck it again. I'm just rooting against the Gators tonight. That's your thing. Go down, Florida. [laughs] Florida State, let's go. Baseball school.
11:34
Wedge FSU baseball school- [laughs]... into the, into the conversation. Uh, Wes kind enough to join us for two. We'll talk about the Masters with him on the other side.
11:42
It's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network.
11:44
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12:03
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12:24
Get VSiN summer special right now for only $59 until August 1st at vsin.com/subscribe. How you doing, man? You okay? You feeling a little lightheaded yet after all this paint?
12:35
I don't, don't do what I just did the last two breaks and leave the studio, 'cause you realize how bad it really is. [laughs] Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, we're, no, we're, we're, we're going down. We're going down. Eh.
12:44
There's no question we're going down. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate it. By the way, went to, uh, my restaurant, my home game rest- home team restaurant yesterday.
12:52
You know which one, at the Aria? Uh, Carbone? Uh-huh. And, uh, not only- Delicious as always?
12:59
Not only was, uh, Bill, Bill Adee and, uh, and girlfriend there as well, I don't know if she wants to be named or not, um, but so was a dolled-up Isaiah Wrinkle. So, so was- Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa- Yes...
13:10
whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa... my, I mean, Mile- Miles was there, Alex was there, but a dolled-up Isaiah Von Wrinkle was the, was the highlight for me.
13:18
What w- what was, this was, like, an owners, managers dinner or something? I don't know. All I know is I'm rolling into my spot and there they are.
13:24
They, like, wave me down from across, and I'm like, "Look at these guys." Wow. I mean, well-deserved. No, I mean, this is awesome. Anyway, what was I- It's a great group right there... why was I bringing that up?
13:35
Oh, 'cause I s- 'cause I've messed up my shirt. Do you have weird things in life that bother you more than other human beings, and you're like, you hate yourself because it bothers you so much?
13:42
I think I messed up a shirt 'cause I got spackle on it. I was gonna say, I mean, like- Yeah...
13:46
I know myself at 38 years old, I would not walk into an Italian restaurant wearing a white shirt of any kind because it is a- Well, it was not white... it is a 100% chance that I will spill something on it.
13:55
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Jesse Welch, "You wanna know what would be a super unique segment this week? You guys, [laughs] you guys should list what your own masters dinner would be.
14:03
That would be incredible radio." [laughs] Came back from last break laughing at this one, Jesse, yes. 'Cause everybody does that. Everybody does this. Oh, God. The num- And good for Scotty Scheffler.
14:14
I do believe his menu is, like, bu- designed for, like, a 10-year-old if I've seen it. Like, it's like, uh, you know, good old brisket, Texas brisket, and, like, it's, like, chicken and I don't know.
14:23
That's, that's why Max Holmes has gotta win this. [laughs] Gotta win this. The numbers, guys. If only Duke could have finished the last minute of that game as abruptly as that Paul Spoor [laughs] interview wrapped up.
14:32
Yeah, I kind of ran him into the wall. I didn't say yes or no, I said, just real quick, I thought I said yes or no. Sorry. I don't know. Sorry, my bad. We- we'll play it back.
14:40
Che- Cheeseburger sliders, firecracker shrimp, Texas-style chili, and then ribeye or blackened redfish. That's what, uh, Scotty Scheffler's got. That is so American.
14:50
T43, "I thought one fun way to play tonight's game was Houston to win the first half, Florida win the second half. Houston could run out of steam and Clayton will find a way. Five to one shot."
15:00
He's got him, I guess, most outstanding player. Brian M, "If Kelly goes down, I'm surprised you guys are playing the old Burger King crown game. I expected a detailed line [laughs] of succession for the producer role.
15:09
Maybe ring the bell of [laughs] San Marco." That's right. We should have a detailed line of succession. Eh, we'll have Tom Check sitting back there. He's done the job before. He's done the job before.
15:18
He's done the job before. He's looking on how to get in there. LosVegas514, "Yo, I have a bracket with Houston to win the championship. The pot is $500. I know you're not a fan of hedging. Hedge or not to hedge?"
15:29
That is not the question. Um, I don't know, how much does that 500 mean to you, man? Yeah. I don't know. Cspec, s- sorry for [laughs] for, sorry for the lame answer, but I don't know. No, I think- Yeah...
15:41
you always answer that correctly. Yeah. It's i- if it's a, if it's a life-changing amount of money- Yeah, man... for whatever that might mean for you, like, then yeah- Yeah... yeah, it's something you should consider.
15:50
If not, let it ride. Sus- Cspackler, he said, "Who cares about brain damage? Gil will not move from his microphone. He has a show to do." Thank you, Cspackler. That- You're darn right I do... that is, that is the truth.
16:00
That's great. This man is a machine. I'm liking that tweet right there. Bing. That's how you, that's what happens when you like it. It goes bing.
16:06
Jonathan Call, "Has anybody discussed the pathetic performance by Bruce Pearl in the Saturday loss?" Oh, I did not. "Took two timeouts home with him while not scoring from the four-minute mark until 31 seconds left.
16:17
Can't draw up a play during those crucial moments." Well, not only can he not draw it up, but did you actually see, like, the assistant coaches drawing up the play, and Pearl was, like, kind of a supervisor?
16:26
Did you see that? Mm-hmm. I was a little taken aback by that. Anyway, Wes Reynolds kind enough to join us for segment number two.
16:31
Uh, Wes, did you notice that about Bruce Pearl, where he was like, "Yeah, that looks like a good play"? Yeah.
16:35
Well, yeah, I thought, I thought he got outmaneuvered by his old pupil, uh, Todd Golden, who was of course on his staff back there in, uh, '14 to '16 down in Auburn.
16:45
And yeah, he, he seemed like, "But, well, I, I don't really necessarily know what to do here," and, you know, just letting them play it out.
16:52
But sometimes you gotta manage that possession by possession, especially when it's one or two possessions down the stretch, and Auburn really didn't do that on Saturday. No, sure did not. Uh, okay, to the Masters.
17:03
Um, the, uh, I always like to be official here, the, uh, the 89th Masters on CBS. You see that Jim Nantz is like, "Oh, one more con-" His next contract goes to, like, 2030-something. He's like- Yeah...
17:14
"That'll be my last Masters." So he's got, like, a decade to go. Um, what have you bet so far, Wes? Let's start with that.
17:21
Just a couple actually, uh, i- in the hopper, because the, the, the thing about the Masters is this, these are up since, like, last fall.
17:29
So you constantly get maneuvering in the market, so whatever happens, and in talking to other fellow bettors, you probably end up on more guys than you would normally want in a smaller field, which is now down to 95 players with Vijay Singh's withdrawal this morning.
17:43
But, uh, you end up with more guys, and because you have such a lead-up to it, it's also gonna be the most bet golf event of the season.
17:51
So when you're looking at these prices, you gotta really look around to try to find value, because you don't get as much perceived value as you would think... necessarily because these prices are, are all beat down.
18:03
Like, if, if you even notice, and I'm looking on the graphic there on the first page, you'll get a fair amount of the LIV players.
18:09
Because a couple years ago when this first happened, the LIV players, because they were out of sight, out of mind, and you really weren't modeling them for stats necessarily, and they had only played, like, a couple of events, those prices went to the moon, and then those guys really showed out in the majors, especially the Masters a couple years ago.
18:28
So that, you know, they're, they don't wanna get caught with their pants down again necessarily and give these big prices on Brooks Koepka or Jon Rahm or DeChambeau or any of these guys.
18:39
So that's why you're see- that's why you're seeing them, I, I think, so low, and you're not getting the value where it's like, "Okay, I'm gonna sneak up on them 'cause they're ignoring these players on the board."
18:49
All right. Did, did I hear who you bet so far? Maybe I missed it. Who did you bet? Okay. Okay. A, a couple. Yeah, I forgot to give those out. No, that's all right.
18:55
I, I, I do, I do have some Ludvig Aberg that I bet, uh, around the time he was winning the Genesis. Now, he misses the cut last week at the Valero, and that trend is usually not your friend there.
19:06
But there, there was some really bad weather, at least from a wind standpoint, if you watched that tournament this weekend, uh, at the Valero, so I'm willing to ignore that. So I already had a ticket on him.
19:16
I already had a ticket on Justin Thomas at about 28 to 1.
19:20
Uh, that's not something I necessarily love this week, 'cause some of these guys that you bet, you're gonna like when you bet them, and then come the week- Yeah...
19:27
of, like, when you're handicapping a normal tournament, it's like, I don't know if I would necessarily play them this week. So, uh, uh, do have a, a piece of him.
19:35
And then I'm probably gonna have one or two short guys here, because this is usually a class player that wins this event. You, you've had some longer odd guys win here, but not as many as you would think.
19:46
So I'm trying to figure out how to play Rory McIlroy without necessarily playing it outright. That might be a top five. That might be a top 10. But it, it's, it's the same thing every year, Gil.
19:57
It feels like it's Rory's year, right? [laughs] It, it, it's like this, this has gotta be his year. This is it.
20:02
He's been trying to complete this since, uh, 2015 was the first time he's been trying to win the Masters to complete the career Grand Slam. But Rory is in the best form he's ever been in. Yeah.
20:12
And his game, I think, is really in the best shape because he's already won twice this year.
20:16
He's already won at Pebble Beach, which was a signature event, and then he's won at the Players Championship, which is the quasi, quote, unquote, "fifth major," or what it used to be referred to as.
20:26
So he's, uh, he's in the great form. Uh, and, uh, you know, trying to figure out how, how deep I wanna go with, with long shots on the board.
20:34
There certainly are some interesting prices, but I don't think this is one you necessarily wanna load up because there's so many different markets that you can bet here.
20:43
You can bet those top 20s and the top 30s and whatnot, and make or miss cut props and nationality props.
20:50
So yeah, you don't wanna, I think, go crazy and like, "Oh, I got a bunch of guys at 150 to 1 to win the Masters," because those 150 to 1s don't usually get home here. Yeah.
21:00
Wes, I, only a couple outrights for me, uh, that, that I bet before this week. Added Shane Lowry yesterday, and then I might end up on what other short shot with you. I'm looking at Rory, too.
21:10
I, I think that's where I'm gonna be attacking. It, it is... I think there are very little guys that can win this event. D, how are you y- handling the LIV players?
21:16
'Cause I do think it's interesting this year as opposed to p- uh, past years where you've got, you know, Neiman's been playing well. Jon Rahm hasn't finished outside the top 10. Uh, Sergio Garcia's playing good golf.
21:27
Is there anybody you're really considering there? A couple. Uh, Cameron Smith at 70 to 1, who really hasn't gone, you know, done very well so far this year.
21:36
But, but it's one of those things where you gotta ignore the recent form, and you gotta look at the long term, and it's like this guy just loves this place, and he's finished inside the top 10 a ton here.
21:45
So that would be one I would look at. You mentioned Neiman. There's a guy that I think because he's won a couple times, and we talk about win equity all the time, Kelly, on long shots, I think he's priced way too low.
21:58
I think 28 to 1, 25 to 1, he should be, like, double that because he's never gotten it done in a major.
22:04
So you wanna be careful with some of those guys that are, like, the hot guys coming in, but because this is a whole new level.
22:10
But I'll tell you one that I think I am gonna add, and he's a guy I won on a couple weeks ago. I'm gonna play Min Woo Lee, I think, at 60 to 1. All right. I, I think so.
22:19
I think he's got the game here, and now that he's got that win, I think he comes in in a different frame of mind. So Min Woo's probably gonna make the card, and I will have that column reas- released tomorrow morning.
22:29
Column released tomorrow morning, and long shots is when, guys? Long shots recording at 11:15 tomorrow. Recording at 11:15 tomorrow. Yeah. So out thereafter. Yeah, out thereafter. All right.
22:40
Wes, we'll get to that music segment. You and I in our dream music segment sometime this summer, okay? [laughs] You bet. Looking forward to it. My man. Wes Reynolds, everybody, on the Numbers Game. Coming back with Dr.
22:49
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23:38
Weekend tweets @BeatingTheBook, always appreciated. Sean Mayer, "Duke's best inbound the last two minutes was when the guy got the tech for stealing the ball while he was out of bounds." [laughs] You are correct.
23:50
Got the tech. You are absolutely right. And even at that point, it looked like Duke was gonna win and maybe even cover. They were up six with 1:14 left, and Kelvin Sampson said, "Let's play it out. No fouls."
24:00
And the rest is history. Cspackler at it. He says, "Uh, why are you guys talking so slow?" And, like, Foghorn Leghorn. 'Cause we're- Yeah...'cause, 'cause if this continued- [laughs]... that would happen for sure.
24:10
Uh, Max Homa need to win this tournament, though.
24:13
Marnold J: "A and G mental picture of the day, Spoor giving Kelly belly rubs, telling him he's a good boy, asking if he wants a treat, then bringing him an adult beverage." [laughs] Man, I'm okay with that.
24:23
Yeah, that's funny. Especially after going down to Austin last summer, woo. Good eats and the barbecue. Yes, indeed. Woo. By the way, you make an NFL draft bet? Um, not anything else this weekend. No.
24:35
I did, I did tell, uh, Mr. Felica on going on the over nine and a half with Ashton Jeanty, which I completely- Oh... plan on losing. Okay. What'd you plan on losing? [laughs] Okay.
24:44
I, but, I'm a believer w- with Chris, though, that, like, these teams got m- they got, uh, other things to worry about besides running back at the ti- at the top of this draft. Made my first bet.
24:54
Uh, I took Travis Hunter to go number two, minus 135. Feels like it's going Ward, Hunter at the top. After that, I gots no idea. None. I don't know what the Giants are doing. I like it.
25:06
I, yeah, I'm honestly number two and number three, I'm, I'm trying to just stay away from. I have no idea with these teams. It gets murky after that to me, but I think Travis Hunter is going to.
25:15
I think the Browns are like, look, why would the Browns sort of enhance a strength already and take Abdul Carter? I just don't see them doing that. I don't. Yeah. Anyway, we shall see. Draft, uh, mere weeks away.
25:27
Masters and then into draft, full draft coverage after that.
25:29
Uh, this man had Houston plus the points the other day [laughs] in the national semifinal, and, uh, didn't look good till late, and then all of a sudden, not only did he get the cover, they won outright. It's Dr.
25:39
Bob, everybody. Bob Stoll comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line at drbobsports.com, drbobsports on Twitter. Predictive sports modeling pioneer. What do you have to say for yourself, Bob?
25:50
It worked out after all. It did work out. I, they played so bad the entire game, fumbling the ball away. Like, I've watched Houston play a few times, and I'm like, God, they're, like, fumbling it off their leg.
26:01
They're not grabbing onto rebounds, and it seems like they get a rebound, and then they fumble it away. And then Duke's... I was like, "What is going on here?" Yeah, it did not look good.
26:08
But [laughs] Duke hasn't been in many close games, and they- Yeah... showed their inexperience. I mean, man, Houston's been in some close games, and, uh, they, I mean, it, it showed in the last couple minutes.
26:20
It really did show.
26:21
I mean, I spun that the other way earlier, 'cause I, I, when I first started talking about this, and I had Duke before you had come on the show, I had Duke minus the points, and, you know, my whole spin was, wow, you know, Houston's 9 of 17 from three.
26:34
If they're, again, if they're even 6 of 17, they're down 20, right? Like, to me- Right. Yeah... it was just amazing that they were still even in it at all.
26:41
As Kelvin Sampson said famously after the game, he was like, "How much were we down by?" They're like, "14." He goes, "[exhales] Good thing it wasn't 17," you know? [laughs] Yeah.
26:48
'Cause that would've been all the difference. But it works out, and I think you're right.
26:51
I think it really can be distilled to that one k- Duke was just not used to playing games like that, and they, and it, and it showed. So it's the national- Yeah... championship.
26:59
I'm not sure if you're aware of this, Bob, tonight. Uh, Houston and Florida. Houston opened as a one-point favorite. Florida is now the one-point favorite. Total at, uh, 141. Is that what I'm seeing right now?
27:10
Um, I said earlier that if anybody comes out here and tells you, "Oh, this team's absolutely crushing tonight," they're probably just, you know, delusional, 'cause who knows what will happen here.
27:20
But I'm just curious- Yeah... from a, from a numbers standpoint, what do you have? Well, these teams are pretty even. My ratings make it a pick.
27:29
Um, I think everybody loved Florida coming into the tournament, and, you know, Florida hasn't been... I mean, they're two and three against the spread.
27:36
You rarely see a team that makes the championship game that has a losing spread record [laughs] throughout the tournament.
27:44
Um, and I, you know, I, uh, there aren't too many of those, and they actually, I think I looked it up, and tried to look it up, and it's 4-7-1 against the number for those teams. So it's not a good omen for them.
27:53
But, uh, a lot of what I, part of what I do in the tournament is there are certain statistical, I call them statistical profile indicators.
28:01
There are certain metrics, offensive rebounding, three-point shooting, certain things that, that, that, that can indicate success or failure relative to how, you know, where, where you otherwise would be in the NCAA tournament.
28:15
There are certain statistical things that make you a good NCAA tournament team. Houston has those. Florida doesn't necessarily have...
28:25
Those aren't, they're not negative, but Houston has been positive in, in those, in those, uh, profile, statistical profile indicators throughout the tournament.
28:33
They are probably the first, maybe, probably, I think they're top in the, in the statistical profile indicators as a team that should do well relatively in the tournament.
28:41
They're 3-1-1 against the number in the tournament. So based on that, which has, uh, been a good indicator over the years, uh, I made a half-unit play on, uh, on Houston. And I dug into the, the matchup a little bit.
28:54
I mean, Houston is not a good two-point shooting team, and Florida, just like Duke, has a, an elite two-point defense. Duke was third in the nation in two-point defense.
29:04
Hou- Florida's fifth in the nation in two-point defense. But Houston has actually performed relatively better offensively against good two-point defensive teams because they can knock down threes.
29:14
They're, they're now number one in the nation in three-point shooting percentage, and I mentioned that when they face Duke.
29:19
They don't need to be great inside the arc, and they're not gonna maybe try to be, 'cause Duke is so good. And when they do miss shots inside the paint, they get a lot of those rebounds, which is what...
29:28
I mean, they're, they're a great offensive rebounding team. And so similarly, they're facing a Florida team that's great in two-point defense, but that hasn't hurt, hurt Houston.
29:38
Houston's offense, like I said, relatively better against better two-point defensive teams. The thing is, they need to face a team that doesn't shut, that doesn't, that does, that allows them to take some three-pointers.
29:49
So I looked it up.
29:50
A- against teams that are in the top 70 in lowest defensive three-point attempt percentage, so three-point attempts as a function, as a percentage of overall field goal attempts allowed, they faced five teams that are in the top 70 in not giving up three-point shots.
30:06
Houston's only had four losses, but three of them against, been against those teams. They're two and three straight up against teams that rank in the top 70 in not allowing three-point shots.
30:16
Uh, Florida's 119th in that metric, so they're out of that range. They don't necessarily stop the threes. So if Houston can get off some three-point shots and make, like I said, if they make 35, 36%,
30:26
then I think that's, I think that's a winner. You know, so, uh, they just, they just are one of those teams that, that, that should be good in the tournament based on their statistical profile. So far they have been.
30:37
Uh, so I did a half unit bet on Houston at, uh, plus one tonight.
30:40
I hope folks paid attention to every word of that, and especially like newer, newer or newish bettors, because that is, and, and by the way, within that, Bob, is one of the things that I think you do the best, which is, you know, you do a great job of this team has a great two-point defense.
30:55
Guess what? Against this team, that doesn't matter, right? It gets nullified because it's not the opponent, uh, that, that, that it, that, you know, is good for exploitation. So it's...
31:05
And, and then against the, you know, defending the arc, Florida is not one of the great teams. So that's kind of, that feels like a masterclass in handicap. Now it has to manifest tonight.
31:15
Obviously, anything can happen in one game, but I'm, uh, I'm feeling what you're, uh, what you're putting down there. What about the total? Any, any take on that, 141? No, I made it 140, so it's not...
31:27
You know, but the, the, um, in the NCAA tournament, I, I have, I don't know, the last 33 years, as far back as my database goes, the under's 19 and 14 in the, in the championship game. So, and it's in the dome, you know?
31:39
That can, that can affect scoring a little bit, shooting, although it didn't affect it the other night. Houston made a high percentage of threes.
31:45
Uh, but normally in a dome, teams don't make as many three-point, three-pointers. Um, you know, it's just, it's Clayton. It, it, it, it's, it's Florida.
31:53
It's up to Clay- like, if he can penetrate the Houston defense, but who has? I mean, Houston's two-point defense is also elite. So it's gonna be interesting. Um, if Houston makes their threes, great. If Clayton Jr.
32:03
goes off again, then Florida probably wins, but Houston's defense is so, so good, and they rebound so many of their missed shots. So I, I just would rather have Houston.
32:13
I think the line is more than fair, and the indicators favor them, so. But I don't see much on the total. Like I said, I make it 140, and it's 141, so I'm not betting the total. Yeah.
32:21
The, the total, by the way, feels like it's like, oh yeah, Florida will, you know, Florida against a normal team is in the 160s.
32:27
Houston is obviously the lower totals, and they just, like, jammed it in the middle of that. Average jump. Yep. Yeah, yeah. That's, that's what it feels like. Bob, you are a joy.
32:34
Thank you for all the appearances during the season, man. All right, good to talk to you guys. Have a good summer. Enjoying his time off now. Dr. Bob, he goes into summer,
32:44
the summertime of year here early, gets to enjoy his family, and then college football. He's, he just goes nuts working on preparing for teams. Obviously, with the transfer portal now, it's even that much more difficult.
32:54
So he's got his work cut out for him, but he gets some time off. Yeah, we ha- we, we gotta have a good summer [laughs]. Well, that dis- Bob, how?
33:01
That dissertation on the national championship game that he just gave right here, and by the way, we need to cut this and put it social, is about as convincing as I could have possibly imagined we would've gotten, 'cause now I'm totally betting Houston after that.
33:13
Okay. I like it. Yeah. I, that was, that, that was great. And what he said made a, made a whole bunch of sense to me.
33:18
Now, again, one game, anything can happen, but that was, uh, even though it's only a half unit from Bob, pretty convincing to me.
33:25
Uh, Houston and Florida, 8:50 Eastern tip-off, 5:50 Pacific, here on the West Coast from the Alamodome in San Antone. Kelly and I on the other side will recap all the bets on the show today, hosts and guests.
33:36
There's a bunch of them. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:39
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland, Kelay Bidelon on the old Twitter machine. Uh, we get tweets at Bet On The Book. Jack Olacuir chimed back in.
34:08
He said, "Hey Gil, fourth brother is Jerry." They got four brothers all with the, uh, first letter J. But he's flying down. He said, "Smells in our truck too. Jeff is complaining binomial distribution once more."
34:19
People like the binomial distribution. [laughs] Uh, NewYorkMess16, "We need Houston tonight so next year when we try to weed out a champion, it's either the tried and true formula or the anomaly of UConn." Yeah.
34:31
Again, formula, tried and true. Houston always qualified. They're the formula champ tonight.
34:37
Florida and Todd Golden trying to buck the, uh, no previous Sweet 16 experience, only with two historical exceptions, Kevin Ollie in 2014 and Dan Hurley in 2023, both with UConn. That's what he's referring to.
34:50
Um, best bets from GBank, the official bank of VSiN. Every host, every guest, every sport, and every show recapped so that you can, uh, sort of do your little cliff notes here at the end. Um, I have, uh, a few.
35:03
One, I've got the Padres A's over. I had an eight minus 142, and then I also played eight and a half even. So I played both of them just, uh, being full disclosure here in my betting accounts.
35:13
Travis Hunter, second overall pick minus 135, my first NFL draft bet as the toe is dipped on an event that used to be a cash cow for bettors. Last couple years, uh, not so much. Kelay Bidelon, Bidelon, what do you have?
35:29
Yeah, you guys can throw up my Masters, uh, graphic again. I got nothing tonight. I, I mean, nothing... I don't know, college basketball? I might just be sitting and watching. I might end up on Houston. Eh.
35:38
I think I'm betting Houston. I'm just, I'm very okay just rooting against Florida. I think I'm betting Houston. Uh, yeah, so here's what I got so far. Again, Akshay Bhatia and Seth Straka I bet earlier in the season.
35:47
Uh, however, I probably will be adding bets to Straka. I've got a lot of top 20s, uh, uh, and top 10 stuff circled, um, just so you guys know out there, but we are [laughs]... His name is spelled wrong. [laughs] Okay.
36:00
Um, I got a lot of that stuff circled, just waiting for markets to open up here in town, um, so we can price shop, uh, correctly, but there were a couple I wanted to jump in on early.
36:09
I saw a plus 140 on Collin Morikawa, uh, at a sh- at stations here in town where tie is paying full. Thought if anything that'd probably go the other way, so I wanted to get that bet in.
36:18
I understand, it, it sounds like we're hearing a lot of Morikawa love already. Um- Yeah, feels like it... I get it. He rates out very, very highly for me.
36:25
I've, I've just got Morikawa winning questions at this point, so I will be happy loading up on a top 10, uh, for him and just leave that alone at plus 140.
36:34
And then Shane Lowry is the only other outright I added 45 to one, and then played him, covered him in a top 10 market at three to one. Um, I don't know.
36:44
Other outrights Gil, I think it's gonna be these three that I have, and then I am probably going with Scheffler or Rory, 'cause I think it is those two at the top, and they're a, a little bit in a, in a tier by themselves heading into this Masters.
36:58
It's, it's an interesting tournament always because it's, [clears throat] not only is it the most predictable of all courses, but it's a small field, right?
37:04
95 now with, uh, Vijay Singh pulling out this morning, as Wes said. And then there's a group of what? 15 to 20 guys who are past champs who have no shot at winning, right? Yeah. So it's a ver- You always get that, yes...
37:17
it's an artificially, uh, uh, you know, small field always at, uh, at Augusta. Joe Peta's on the Orioles today against the Diamondbacks, a little interleague play. Joe Peta with his play. Thank you, Joe.
37:28
Orioles +109 is his baseball selection of the day. Uh, and then we got, uh, Jake Hahn on the show. Jake's got two hockey plays. He's on the St. Louis Blues, uh, money line +143.
37:41
Um, Blues trying to extend their, uh, their winning streak here. And then he's got Kings on the puck line, minus the goal and a half, +122.
37:47
Speaking of Collin Morikawa, Jake Hahn on Collin Morikawa, uh, Morikawa to win the Masters 18-1. Um, then after Jake came on the show, the next one was, who was it? Oh, we just got Dr. Bob. Dr. Bob. Yep.
38:02
Who's on Houston with a half unit. Houston Cougars tonight, half unit. Uh, GBank, the official bank of VSiN, upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new GBank Visa Signature c-ca- [laughs] Signature card customers.
38:13
The paint is getting to me. [laughs] First new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
38:21
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38:32
That's visa.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Uh, congratulations to, uh, the UConn Huskies, Geno Auriemma and the UConn Huskies. I don't know if anybody had a bet on them to win it all.
38:45
Um, but Paige Bueckers completes her college career. She'll be the number one pick in the, uh, WNBA draft. She is hard not to love- Yeah... Paige Bueckers. Man, they cruised, didn't they? They crushed- They cruised...
38:56
Dawn Staley and South Carolina yesterday. And I don't know what it, I don't know what this is, and I don't know if you're like this at all, but this'll, I don't know what this says about me.
39:04
Um, when Paige Bueckers hugged Geno Auriemma, and I haven't watched, I mean, let's be honest, I, I've watched less than five minutes of- Mm-hmm... women's college basketball this year probably.
39:14
But when they hugged, and I'm obviously familiar with Paige's story and all the injuries, uh, I got a little misty about it. And I don't, I don't know what it is.
39:20
Maybe it's, you know, when Coco Gauff won the US Open, I didn't have a bet on Coco, and she just started sobbing uncontrollably. I started sobbing uncontrollably.
39:28
So I don't know if it's a, uh, a thing with, uh, you know, with women's athletics where the, the emotion hits me in a different way, but I felt so great for them, uh, for both of the, for the entire team.
39:38
UConn runs away with it yesterday, which was awesome. I mean, sports are just overwhelming sometimes, right? I mean, people reaching their dream. It's incredible. It's awesome. It's incredible. It's awesome.
39:46
And she's been there for 17 years, so yeah, worked, worked hard at it. Uh, we also have a Jensen Lewis update. Jensen has texted us.
39:53
Jensen, co-host of, uh, By the Books with Dave Ross, our buddy here, uh, weekday mornings at the network. Well, this is good timing, too, 'cause Matt Brown is up next, so- Oh, okay... he's probably walking in right now.
40:05
So he can't hear this. Can't even hear this, yeah. All right. So, so in the VSiN s- bracket challenge, the, the VSiN employees and hosts included in their, uh, section of this, Matt Brown 10-point lead over Jensen.
40:17
They're the only two people that can win this, okay? This is no, no cash prize. This is just for pride and bragging rights. Although maybe we can drum up a c- a cash prize before it's- Maybe... all said and done, yeah.
40:27
Yeah, maybe there's a, maybe it's a bare- Side bet... maybe bare-fisted boxing if they get tied. No, that's not even tied betting. Oh, oh, I like that. [laughs] Okay. So Matt has a 10-point lead.
40:34
The, uh, the result of tonight's game, winning picks get 10 points. So the only way that Matt can lose is if Jensen's pick is correct and Matt's is incorrect. Jensen has already put his pick in, right?
40:48
So that it's viewable.
40:49
And we were saying out loud here on the show earlier, I hope Jensen is doing that so that he fakes out Matt, so that Matt will wait till the end, see that, will try to put in the matching pick so that he will clinch it, and then Jensen will do the rope-a-dope and immediately change his play so that he has the opportunity to tie, and the tiebreaker is most points in the final round, and he would therefore win.
41:11
So Jensen has texted us, um, and he has said, uh, I love when he starts his text by saying, "Jensen Lewis here." [laughs] I know it's you, Jensen.
41:21
He says, uh, "Cam sent me the clip of you and Kelly, uh, talking about the bracket competition between me and Matt tonight. I love it," he said in capitals.
41:30
"I wanted Matt to know that pick to see if he'd bite if," uh, he says, "I have the other one I really liked that I will potentially switch to before lock tonight." Yeah, you get, you get to- Let's go...
41:40
you get to know Jensen Lewis just a little bit more. Yes, you do. Yeah. Yeah. He's got a little more game in his game than we might have imagined. Not, not just the nice former pro athlete- No...
41:50
coming here to do shows and gonna- Mild... put some picks in. No, trying the old, old rope-a-dope on Matt Brown. Mild-mannered reporter from a daily metropolitan newspaper. That's not him at all.
41:59
There's Matt Brown right outside the studio, so he definitely didn't hear any of that. There you go. He's probably hearing it right now, though. [laughs] Yeah, I, I don't know what you want. Let's move on.
42:06
Um- And on to weather. [laughs] Weather on the ones. Don't you love that when local radio says, "Weather on the ones"? Yep.
42:13
Uh, last thing, I, I briefly alluded to this this weekend, but the Oklahoma City Thunder's pursuit of 70 wins, man, did that crash and burn. Not only will they not get to 70, they ain't getting to 69 either. Nope.
42:27
Square root of A something. These, uh, trying to think of the reference. Sorry. Uh, okay, these standings- Drake... thanks. Mm-hmm. Uh, I thought I got one for once. Thought I got one for once.
42:39
I brought, I brought, I brought Drake. These standings are gonna be so important with the West, h- how this ends. I, I'd be like, OKC, I, I'm loaded up on OKC bets. You don't wanna see Luka Dončić ever.
42:48
Clear, like, that, if that wasn't made apparent last year, I mean, yesterday, this is, Luka, uh, lives rent-free inside those guys' head a bit, and I, I'm scared of them running into the Lakers.
42:59
Well, tomorrow with Drew, to that point, I know he's been concocting this in his lab, potential Western Conference series prices, and jot them down and then how you might be able to exploit them once the playoffs actually start.
43:12
We'll do that. Mm-hmm. Um, but getting back to the point here, I know you hijacked that for a second. Is Degnault done now for Coach of the Year now they can't get to 70? Is that over? I think so, but...
43:24
And is Draymond winning Defensive Player of the Year? Like, the Dort bets are not gonna come through. I don't know. No, I still, I still don't get that one. I still don't get the Draymond love.
43:31
I, I- You wanna say he's up there, it's fine. He, you can make, we can make a lot of great cases for Draymond.
43:35
The problem is, is that when you can't answer one pushback question, it's like, well, yeah, but all of that started when Jimmy Butler got there. That's correct. Almost precisely.
43:47
So, like, I, that kills his case almost immediately to me. Oh, and then there's a, a bigger question we have to talk with Drew.
43:52
I wish we had more time to talk today, but, uh, all y'all NBA hardos sort of take the Houston Rockets and you cast them aside very dismissively, very casually. Yeah. And, uh, they beat OKC and they beat the Warriors.
44:06
Mm-hmm. Yeah, they look- Back to back... they look good. We have to have a serious Houston Rockets discussion. Yeah, it's fine. I, I, I'm fine losing to the Rockets. I don't believe in them.
44:13
[laughs] I, I, I'll be, I'll keep being that guy. I'm fine losing, though. I don't believe in them. I don't believe in them. And as they beat you, you're like, "Yeah, I'm fine with this. This is perfectly fine.
44:21
Shoulder's fine." Be betting against them. Cody Bellinger things. [laughs] Stormy is next with the aforementioned Matt Brown, who heard nothing about what we just spoke. That's next on VSiN, the sports betting network.
44:31
Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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