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Apr 8, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 8, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 8, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:14
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Transcript
0:00
Good Monday morning to you.
0:01
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all brought to you by DraftKings, live from Bar Canada here at the D in downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander.
0:13
It's Kelly Midlan, producer number nine, so much more than a producer here on a numbers game. What's happening? Not much, man. Not much. Just playing, uh, playing Name That Song before the show. Yeah.
0:23
With, uh, Matt in the background giving you all the answers. Yeah, that's right, yeah. Yeah. Let's go, Kansas. Um, I don't know if you know this, national championship game tonight- Let's go... between UConn and Purdue.
0:33
Huskies favored by a touchdown in this one. Uh, we'll get into all of that with Dr. Bob. One final appearance from Dr. Bob this college, uh, basketball season. He kind of nailed UConn, Alabama.
0:45
He's like, "I got UConn against the spread, but if there is a-- if there was an underdog this past weekend in the Final Four, meaning either Alabama or NC State, which is the one that is the most likely to pull off the outright, it would be Bama."
0:56
And somehow I think he threaded that needle perfectly based on what we saw, uh, on Saturday.
1:01
He will give his thoughts on the championship game tonight, as will Mike Somich from The Handle here at VSiN, big college basketball head.
1:07
Uh, we'll get their thoughts whilst talk baseball with Paul Spore, uh, hockey with Jay Con, as is our, uh, our tradition here on Mondays on a numbers game. Um, before we get to
1:19
the national title game tonight, and a look back at Saturday, and even a talk about the women's game, I just want to say this because, uh,
1:27
it-- whenever you're turning on any mainstream media or anything this morning, all you're hearing about is John Calipari. And, uh, John Calipari, in case you missed it, is, uh, signing a five-year deal at Arkansas.
1:37
Now, Kelly, people are talking about this with the gravitas of, uh, you know, when you were in school, and they were like, "Hey, what was the event that, uh, started World War I?"
1:46
And they're like, "Oh, the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand in, uh, in Austria, of course."
1:51
Uh [laughs], or from a sports perspective, "Oh, uh, Dante Culpepper going to the Dolphins is what created Nick Saban's seven championships at Alabama."
2:00
Okay, so people are like, the way that they're talking about this is, okay, Rob Lanier gets fired at SMU. Uh, Andy Enright goes from USC to SMU.
2:08
Eric Musselman goes from Arkansas to USC, and now here we have this seismic thing of John Calipari going to, uh, Arkansas, which, you know, from a, from a legacy standpoint is a little odd, right?
2:21
That he would go from Kentucky to Arkansas. But in today's day and age, and the way that things soured at Kentucky, you get it.
2:26
But good God, does that-- the betting perspectives are not, uh, enough for me to, uh, make too much of it.
2:31
So I want to talk about it here at the outset, then I won't-- then I don't want to talk about it again, 'cause I think it's just getting way too much juice this morning.
2:36
But, um, listen, when you're at Kentucky and you three out of the last four years go nine and sixteen, that was a pandemic year, so we kind of let that slide, right?
2:47
But then two out of the last three, you lose to a fifteen-seed St. Peter's, and this year you lose to a fourteen-seed in Oakland.
2:53
Yeah, it's probably, uh, you know, you're, you're probably on the outs, and you're at odds with alumni, boosters, with everybody. Um, from a betting perspective, what does this mean?
3:06
Let's say, does, does it make you want to bet Arkansas to win the, the, the national title next year? Uh, it does not me.
3:13
Because even though the NI- the NIL money will flow now with the Walton family, with the Tyson family, with Jared, Jared Jones at Arkansas, John Calipari has exhibited no ability,
3:27
yet he may learn, but to date, he is still in this one-and-done frame of mind. And he can talk about, well, now I, you know, or they can say in theory, "Well, now he's got all the NIL.
3:37
He's got all this money that he can use for NIL." Um, he ain't Nate Oats.
3:42
And again, for those of us who had Nate Oats and Alabama futures, which again, for the last two weeks I've said I'd no, no thought that it would ever really get home because of the behemoth that was UConn.
3:52
But the point of the Nate Oats bets was this dude got it. Not only did he show coaching prowess when he had the Brandon Millers of the world, but in the transfer portal, right?
4:02
Be- forget the fact that he had a five-star. He did get one five-star in Jaren Stevenson. But in the transfer portal, he was able to get Grant Nelson. He got, uh, Latrell Wrightsel. He got Aaron Estrada.
4:12
He got these pieces in volume where you're like, this dude totally gets that the object of college basketball is to be old and stay old now. It is not about one and done, which Calipari has made his hay on.
4:28
It got him one championship at Kentucky, or, you know, some years ago, one championship in fifteen years. But that ain't the way that it goes in college basketball.
4:37
So I don't know that it should induce a bet on Arkansas for you. Maybe you feel otherwise. Doesn't for me.
4:44
The other side of it is, okay, if we see some markets about who's Kentucky's next coach, you know, which is not really everywhere, but if that market would be available to you, it's all the u- it's all the suspects that everybody else is saying.
4:57
I have nothing to add, Oats being one of them. And by the way, just personally, because I have known one kid since the age of eight who actually just went transfer portal, uh, into, uh, it-- to, to Alabama.
5:10
By the way, when I'm talking about NIL, I'm talking about transfer portal simul- you know, as a, as a co-commingled thing. Right. Um, so I'm a little bit in a panic this morning that Oats would leave to go to Kentucky.
5:23
I don't think he will, but people are saying it's eighteen million dollars buyout. If you really want someone bad enough, these schools have eighteen million dollars to pay. Sure.
5:32
But I hope that Oats recognizes that what he's doing at Alabama is every bit as valid as what he could do at Kentucky, and he needs to stay there.
5:38
Plus, the whole thing about less pressure at a school like Arkansas than there is at a basketball-focused school like Kentucky is. The other, you know, the other one, Danny Hurley, who is again on the cusp.
5:49
If UConn gets it done tonight of a second consecutive championship, he'll probably get a call. Jay Wright will probably get a call. Jay Wright's sixty-two. I don't know why Jay Wright would want to come back.
5:58
Maybe he would, maybe he wouldn't. Uh, the price will matter, of course, with all of this. Um- Rick Pitino was a, was a name bandied about last night, but he's 71 years old.
6:08
You probably don't want a return to Pitino at 71 years old. Um, you're an NBA guy. The most intriguing name is Billy Donovan to me. Billy Donovan, who has sort of,
6:19
I don't want to say floundered in Chicago, but they're not really going anywhere- No... in Chicago, and he's the guy who won the last back-to-back title, uh- Yeah... titles in the, in the NCAA at Florida.
6:29
I, I do think times have changed though, right?
6:31
I mean, I th- I think for so many of the, uh, so many of these coaching conversations, it is, it is about understanding that new landscape of how to best utilize the transfer portal and NIL and be...
6:42
I mean, I, I, I mean, Calipari is, like, maybe the best example of, hey, the, we capitalized on the one-and-done system, but the system's changed and, and moved on.
6:52
So it's, I don't know if Billy Donovan would be a great coach in college basketball right now. I don't know.
6:56
I think, I think it's very understandable why a lot of these college guys, and we've seen it so much with football, are looking towards the pros because they don't want to mess around with this crazy recruiting landscape anymore.
7:07
Yeah, Chris Beard, Scott Drew, all kinds of names being bandied about. Anyway, fr- from a betting standpoint, it really doesn't, uh, move the needle for me either way. Tonight's game, of course, ought to be the headline.
7:18
Uh, UConn, again, seven-point favorites against Purdue. Uh, the Purdue-NC State game on Saturday in the Final Four was just dreadful from just a viewing standpoint. Uh, Purdue wasn't very good.
7:30
It didn't have to be, though they get credit, uh, for doing all that they had to to not only win, but cover against the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack were just not at their best.
7:40
The Cinderella story, uh, comes to an end, and, and Purdue deserves credit. I'm not trying to take credit away, but you understand it was not a, it was not a classic. They did what they had to do.
7:49
The second game was, um, fascinating in that Alabama, I think Dr. Bob called it perfectly, right? UConn somehow gets the cover in the end, but for twe- you know, for 28 minutes of that ball game, Alabama was in it.
8:04
It was 56-56 with just over 12 minutes left before UConn finally separated for good. They we- you know, 90 seconds later, they were up eight. It never got closer than six after that.
8:15
By the way, that was the thing about the NC State game.
8:17
You know, in retrospect, I, I don't want to just sort of dismiss it as, as how I characterized it, because there was a, there was a point in that NC State game, and this will get lost in history. It was 39-33 Purdue,
8:29
uh, early in the second half, and NC State had about four...
8:34
Not had about, they had exactly four different possessions where they could have cut into that six-point lead and four shots that, uh, did not go in, and they could never get closer than that.
8:48
But there was a moment in that game where Purdue, who hadn't played well, was super vulnerable. NC State had all the opportunities in the world to not only cut into the lead, but actually take the lead.
8:58
Uh, cut into the lead, but a- actually take it. Um, and that didn't happen. And, and the, the Alabama thing was, I said l- last week, and again, holding the Alabama ticket,
9:08
I've got this 60 to 1 on them, which I got in June, because of all the Nate Oats offseason stuff. Never thought they could be the...
9:14
The thing that you couldn't have counted on was the behemoth and the Goliath that was UConn. But I said for Alabama, I'm pretty sure I said this on air. Certainly ought.
9:24
Alabama had to go Villanova 1985 percentage-wise against Georgetown. Yeah. But they had to do it from three. So in the first half, they go eight of 11. They do exactly that, and they're still down four. It's incredible.
9:35
It's, it's unbelievable how good UConn is. I, I mean, I think it's one of those, like s- when you've looked at the box score afterward, you're like, "Well," like you just look at the box score.
9:44
You could be like, "Well, Alabama, like, that's, that's everything they would've wanted to do."
9:48
And then you look down to the UConn section and you're like, "Well, o- okay, UConn did just, just as well at everything Alabama was sw- wanted to do." It's incredible.
9:56
And then you look at things like assists and rebounds, and they out-rebounded them 37 to 29, out-assisted them 20 to 9. Uh, just, just wild what UConn's put- doing right now. We're gonna get Dr.
10:07
Bob's thoughts on the game tonight, and Mike Somich's, but I, I will tell you that preflop, um, I'm not getting in front of UConn. I know a lot of people think... I, I thought NC State was getting too many points.
10:19
I thought Alabama was getting too many points. I do not think Purdue is getting too many points. Okay. Uh, maybe I'm oh for three. Maybe Purdue does cover. Maybe Purdue has a shot at winning this outright.
10:29
I just don't see it that way. I just think this UConn team is, um, we didn't, we didn't think of them midway through this season as this juggernaut, but here we are, and this team is just... They have all the answers.
10:42
Uh, we'll talk about most outstanding player here on the other side and what the betting implications are of that heading into tonight's game.
10:48
Um, but I just think this is-- I am more excited for this game, Kelly, just from a fan's perspective because you have an actual traditional matchup of big men. Oh, yeah.
10:56
In Zach Edey, you have this unbelievable offensive force, and in Donovan Clingan, you have this unbelievable defensive force. Big men.
11:04
It's a throwback to actual big man versus big man, and then everybody else really good too in terms of the complementary parts. But what a, what a traditional look this game will have to what we remember from yesteryear.
11:18
So with apologies to Houston and, and the Jamel, uh, excuse me, and the Jamal Shed injury, um, these are certainly two teams that perhaps were on a collision course the whole time. Can't wait.
11:30
We'll talk more about most outstanding player. Numbers game, VSiN. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Get ready to tee off with a special Masters edition of VSiN's Long Shots this Tuesday.
11:46
That's tomorrow, 11:00 PM Eastern. Kelly, are you aware of this? Kelly? Oh, I'm aware. Join VSiN experts Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin. Hey, what do you know?
11:55
As they break down the field, analyze the best bets, and uncover hidden long shots like the 50 to 1 Steven Yeager ticket Wes cashed on the Houston Open.
12:01
Uh, and not to mention the, uh, Akshay Bhatia ticket that Matt Brown cashed yesterday. Did Wes have Bhatia too yesterday? No, just Matt, I believe. Just Matt.
12:11
From the favorites to the dark horses, we'll give you the inside scoop on every player and their odds of taking home the green jacket.
12:15
Whether you're a seasoned golf bettor or just getting into the game, our expert panel will provide insights and strategies to help you make informed betting decisions. Tune into Long Shots on Tuesday.
12:23
It's called Long Shots 11:00 PM to get a competitive edge and maximize your winnings during this iconic golf tournament. Don't miss out on this exclusive Masters coverage at vsin.com/masters.
12:32
VSIN, the sports betting network. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
12:36
And that really is a tradition unlike any other, of course, around these parts too, is that once the NCAA championship game concludes, we all transition full throttle into the Masters, the first major of the calendar year in golf, and really, um, not only the most prestigious, uh, but from a betting handle, the, the largest.
12:56
A lot of that has to do with you have a whole winter to make your bets- Yeah... also at the Masters. Um, but I think it would be anyway, right? It's just there is something about Augusta. Matt is going.
13:06
Matt Brown is going to Augusta. Yep, he will be there. Oh, man. Boots on the ground. How good is that? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Uh, we're doing a Beating the Book podcast tomorrow morning right after a numbers game.
13:16
Uh, Kelly will be, uh, joining us. Matt maybe. Yeah, maybe, Matt. Sia Najad will definitely be joining us as well. So we'll do the, uh, traditional Beating the Book Masters podcast, uh, tomorrow as well.
13:28
Uh, we get tweets at BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. This is from Forest Lehmann. Keeps wanting to talk about Nas Reid. He's like, "Let's go. Weingarten needs that Green Bay house.
13:38
Let's talk Nas Reid." Nas Reid, uh, for a six man, of course. Uh, Mike Rouse letting me know there's no more slow jams in, uh, Chechnya by law, apparently. Okay, that's big.
13:48
Uh, JasonH11, "As an East Coast sports fan, I am livid with the starting times of events. 11:00 PM Eastern tomorrow for the Long Shots Masters preview is complete BS. Kelly got sushi?"
13:58
[laughs] Now, he's joking, but what he's- Yeah... talking about is the game tonight tips off, and this happens every year, 9:20 Eastern, 6:20 Pacific. What are we doing? We're still doing this? Yeah, I don't know.
14:14
It, it, it's ridiculous, but I don't know, at the same time, we get, we're gonna, we're gonna get mad about this every single year. [laughs] I know. I know. I know. It is, it, it is, it is ridiculous.
14:22
Like- I'd like to get mad about it every year... when, when we can sit here on the West Coast and- Yeah... say, and say, "It's ridiculous"- Yes... that's when you know it's really bad. It's really bad.
14:30
That's exactly right. Uh, and- Like, like I don't even get like that, right? Okay, like I always understand the you're trying... Y- yes, you wanna go after 5:00 our time, right?
14:39
Pacific time, so you kinda get people out of work is where you wanna decide most of these sporting events, but why is it, why, why does it need to be 6:30 our time?
14:48
You know, [laughs] start it up at 6:00, 5:45, I don't care. And lastly, uh, New York, uh, New York Ball Giants 42, Steve says, uh, "NC State showed the downside to Cinderellas.
14:58
We all love a great run, but if it results in an awful Final Four game, is it really worth it? Also, Wemby had seven blocks, and, uh, the defensive player of the year odds didn't change, shaking my head."
15:07
Oh, tell me about it. Um, speaking of golf yesterday, real quick, Matt Brown had Bhatia at, what, 65 to 1? What did he have him at? I'm not sure. I'm not exactly sure what number he got. I know it was a late add for him.
15:20
I think he, and I think he hedged a little bit, so he ended up with 50 to 1, basically. But Akshay Bhatia ended up winning- I, I feel so bad he had to hedge, but man, I hope he hedged.
15:28
[laughs] Like that was- A little bit. Little bit... that was ba- that would've been bad. For those who missed it, Akshay Bhatia wins the Valero Texas Open, and does so in a one-hole playoff against, um, Denny McCarthy.
15:39
And the only reason I bring this up on the, as, as a tournament right before the Masters is, first of all, this qualifies Bhatia for the actual Masters, which is awesome for him.
15:47
But he was up six strokes when the back nine hit yesterday. A- and that, Gil, that is kind of when I tuned out. You tuned out because, 'cause Kelly's on air. Sitting here on air.
15:58
You're not even thinking about it- Doing live at Sunday with what we've done... 'cause you're like, "This tournament's over." Yeah. We're tracking the women's college basketball. We're tracking NBA.
16:06
Little does he know, McCarthy birdies 10, pars 11, and then the last seven holes goes birdie, birdie, birdie, birdie, birdie, birdie, birdie for a record 28 of nine holes, and forces the playoff. And then
16:23
he hits a putt on 18 that looks like he's going to win the tournament in regulation, if you will. And then Bhatia sinks this even longer putt, and is so pumped up that he starts pumping his left arm.
16:39
So I'm texting Kelly. I'm like, "This is unbelievable." Kelly has no idea what's happening. He said, "What are you talking about?" I said, "This golf tournament is just mayhem." Well, I, I caught it at that point.
16:47
By that point, you had alerted me. So Bhatia's pumping his left, "We're, we're going to a playoff. This is unbelievable."
16:52
And then like a tennis match where like a player, you know, in tennis this happens all the time where they, they call the physio. They call the trainer over. "Hi, you know, I'm, I'm losing.
17:00
Why don't you take a look at my stuff so I can have a breather," whatever. Bhatia hurt his... Not only hurt, he partially dislocated his shoulder- Ugh...
17:09
pumping his fist 'cause he was so pumped that he tied the golf tournament up. [laughs] And then, but he's still able to hit. So he hit an approach shot, I believe it was, or the shot before the approach, pardon me.
17:20
And, uh, then McCarthy, after the s- after the 28 on the back nine, he goes into the creek, and then I'm sure Bhatia's shoulder felt a lot better, and then he wins the tournament easy peasy.
17:28
Well, well, and that's where I was confused on the air. We brought this up how many times during primetime action where we're like, "Well, we're watching it, but we don't have the audio," right?
17:34
We, we don't have the audio. So, so I see McCarthy. Well, McCarthy goes into the water, and then Bhatia, uh, Akshay Bhatia walks, walks away with a, with the trainer or whatever. Yeah.
17:46
And I'm like, "Is he really about to withdraw from this tournament?" [laughs] Like- A walkover... when, you know, when all he's gotta do- That's right...
17:52
like, I'm like, I feel like with one arm, he'd at least have a chance. Like- He had the, he had the Masters on the line. Yeah. [laughs] He wasn't quitting. Anyway, that was awesome for those of you who had Bhatia.
18:01
If you did, good for you. Uh, what a tournament. Um- Uh, the, the, the part that sucks for me, for, you know, for someone like me who maybe had him, like he just...
18:10
I, I mean, it's always easy to say this, but yes, he was close to, close to an add for me last week, but I left him off the card. But I kind of had him circled for some Masters bets, like thinking it'd be good.
18:20
Oh, you did? But now what are you supposed to do with a guy like that? I mean, he's got a dislocated shoulder.
18:24
Could you imagine, like, going back, like if he had lost that tournament, going back to his wife being like, "Yeah, I got really excited when I, I made that putt, and I, I pumped my fist and- Yeah, I dislocated my shoulder Especially s- [laughs] Especially since he's what I [laughs]
18:38
died on so bad. I'm like- But like, I mean, we've heard of more ridiculous sports injuries before, but that's up there. The worst part about that, Gil, is this is the guy who I never understood.
18:48
They, they run these PGA Tours, sometimes when they run alternate events, it'll be like three times a year, right? When there's like two events on a weekend, and Bhatia's won one of these before.
18:58
So it was-- I kinda, I, I kind of thought months ago he was qualified for the Masters. [laughs] So you're like, "Oh, wait, no, you can get a PGA Tour win- That's right... but still doesn't qualify you for it."
19:08
That's right. So he had to go win that dang thing yesterday. Yep. It's amazing. Anyway- Oh, wow. Wow... can't wait to talk Masters all week. Uh, hopefully we'll get Tindall in here maybe and, uh, do his formula.
19:17
On the-- He-- By the way, speaking of the formula, college basketball formula wins again. That's another reason why there was never a thought of Alaba- the form- of Alabama winning, despite the futures tickets.
19:26
The formula was telling us Alabama and NC State cannot win this tournament.
19:31
And all along UConn's been in it, and Purdue's been in it most of the time, and no matter the outcome tonight, the formula wins, uh, for another year. You didn't need a formula for UConn, though, that's for sure. Yeah.
19:41
Um, but the formula, again, tried and true, six criteria, gets it done. One of these winners, uh, one of the, one of these teams, whoever wins tonight, will qualify. Uh, most outstanding player.
19:50
So this does exist somewhere still, right? Most outstanding player?
19:53
Yeah, I, I don't really-- I never understood the timing on this, 'cause even last week it was odd, like when they finally posted it places, then they took it down.
20:01
I-- It's not up at DraftKings right now, I don't really know why. Um, but you know, we talked about this a lot last week. We did.
20:06
Like I think if you do see odds for it this week, okay, Eady, uh, is, could be a good substitute bet for Purdue if you really like them tonight. But check the odds. And UConn, who the hell knows?
20:17
[laughs] Yeah, Clingan, Clingan is understandably the short shot. But right after Eady, Tristan Newton, Cam Spencer, uh, Cassell's there as well. Um, or was there as well.
20:28
I just wanna point this out again if it, if it pops up. We have not had a most outstanding player on a team that did not win the championship, so in other words, on a losing team, in 41 years.
20:40
When Hakeem Olajuwon of the Houston Cougars won most outstanding player in the 1983 tournament, when NC State beat Houston, of course, on the final, uh, Derrick Whittenberg lob, which ends up being a, a short shot that Lorenzo Charles plucked out of the air.
20:54
When most outstanding player, Hakeem Olajuwon, failed to block him out, I should point out. [laughs] Uh, and NC State ends up winning that title.
21:01
So it's been 41 years, and it's, it's interesting that that doesn't happen anymore. Oh, okay.
21:08
Well, I was gonna say, d-d- it feels, it feels like to me even more so in this day and age, we would stick to the, we stick to those kind of rules. Like, we're not even gonna consider someone who doesn't win it.
21:19
There is a cultural question there, right? Like, are we just too macho? It's like, "You win or you lose." Like, are we tied in that? I mean, sure.
21:25
I, I think, I think it slightly applies to every one of these awards conversations we have. Yeah. It's also, like, you know, NCAA tournaments, I don't know if you know this, but I'm old enough to remember,
21:34
there was a consolation game. Yeah. Forgot about that. [laughs] They used to play a consol- I knew that, but- Like, in, like NC State would be playing Alabama before this game tonight for third place. So would Americans.
21:46
That used to happen. This isn't the Olympics. Who cares? And it's just like we're, we don't do that stuff anymore. [laughs] Tonight, NC State and Bama for third place. No, it doesn't happen anymore.
21:54
I mean, like, I don't, I don't even-- I wanna say it'd be great for bettors, but I don't even know if that would be the case, 'cause how-- Wouldn't you question motivation the entire time? Of course you would.
22:01
Of course you would. You'd be like, "Who cares about being at this game?" Like, who do you think cares more about this? Right, yeah. I do have one bet though. Kainer Oaks. I bet, I bet the under on this game.
22:10
I did bet the under on this game. Oh, you did? Yes, yes. Okay. I, I'm not getting involved with side. Like you said, I, I don't really have much interest in that.
22:16
Uh, but with these two teams, in defense they've played, and Eady, and Ala- the fouls might rack up. I like the under on this one. Okay. Okay, we got a pre-flop. All right. Uh, let's talk some baseball.
22:26
Paul Sporer will join us for Fan Grafs next. It's a numbers game at VSEN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSEN, the sports betting network.
22:35
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22:45
The VSEN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in all the action, find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money does not match the public opinion.
22:54
You can check out not just today's action, but future events as well. Take advantage of this limited time offer, though it is limited.
22:59
Visit vsen.com/splits now to claim your free two-week access to VSEN's betting splits. Don't strike out on potential winnings. Visit vsen.com/splits and start making smarter baseball bets today.
23:10
Start s- start making smarter bets in every sport today, for God's sake. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlow live from Barcanada, The Barrage, at The D, uh, in downtown Las Vegas. I got a great text.
23:20
We were just talking moments ago about I am old enough to remember when they played a consolation game, a game for third place, uh, in the NCAAs, and I had to look this up. The last one was in 1981.
23:36
Kelly, who could forget that Virginia beat LSU for the third place game in 1981? Who could forget? I'm sure there was a lot of effort given on both sides. Well, so it's funny you mention this.
23:49
So I bring up the third place game, or the consolation game as we used to call it, and Steve Fezzik has just texted me.
23:53
He goes, "Listen, if they play tonight, NC State and Alabama, I've got the over [laughs] in your fictitious third place game. [laughs] Uh, NC State just played their 10th straight elimination game.
24:04
They will run with Bama." So there you go. There's your betting advice for a game that's not gonna happen today. [laughs] That's not gonna happen. Yeah, it'd be like an NBA All-Star Game. But I understand his thinking.
24:11
Nobody's gonna play defense in this game. You gotta, you gotta try to assess motivation. Uh, by the way, women's title. Don't wanna-- We, we've gone 30 minutes, we haven't even mentioned it.
24:20
Congratulations to Dawn Staley, uh, and the South Carolina Gamecocks. Uh, they complete their undefeated season with a title. Dawn Staley and South Carolina's, uh, third, um, 38 and O,
24:33
74 and one the last two seasons 109 and 3 the last three seasons. And of course, uh, they beat- That's not bad... Caitlin Clark and Iowa, uh, who loses in the championship game for a second straight year.
24:46
But Caitlin Clark, as Dawn Staley even, uh, mentioned in her post-game thoughts, uh, really, uh, you know, carried a lot and, uh, really brought a lot of people into the women's college basketball tent.
24:58
Paul Spohn joins us, uh, to talk baseball from FanGraphs. But Paul, you were saying off-air, like, that's the case for you too with women's basketball. Comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. A- absolutely.
25:08
You know, I'm, I'm a Longhorn, so I, I follow my Lady Horns a bit here and there, you know, when the tournament time comes around, but was never really heavy into the women's game. Caitlin got me in, you know?
25:18
Um, started watching late last year with the tournament, and she's just so dynamic. And then you learn that there's tons of great talent, and that South Carolina team cannot be slept on.
25:27
They're an absolute powerhouse, and they're not slowing down, by the way. Uh, they got Pow Pow coming back for a fifth year. Yeah. They're gonna lose Cardoso, but they're bringing in an elite, uh, uh, recruit as well.
25:39
They're insane, so they're, they're gonna be, you know, untouchable again. Caitlin probably gonna be the... Or not probably. She's gonna be the number one pick in the WNBA draft. But yeah, there's just so much talent.
25:48
I think that's really what, what you learn when you do sit down. If she brings you in, then you s- then you realize, wow, there's a lot of exciting talent in the women's game. And I really did enjoy it.
25:58
This was the first year that I was, like, really into it, knowing more than just a couple stars. I was knowing different players across, uh, many teams and, and, and w- very enjoyable watch.
26:08
If you bring Paul Spohn into the women's college basketball tent, this is a perfect example, 'cause all Paul does is watch baseball and beat 12-year-olds in MLB The Show- [laughs]... from across the world.
26:19
That's all he does. No, they beat me. They beat me. Oh, sorry. They beat you. [laughs] No, no, no, no, no. The, no. The, yeah, the kids dominate an old man like myself. Oh.
26:27
I am ancient in MLB The Show universe at this point. [laughs] Sorry. Sorry if I've mischaracterized it, Paul. That's right. Um, okay.
26:34
Uh, the, I wa- I was gonna ask you this anyway, but Forrest Lehman does it by tweet, so I'll go to his tweet. Was Tommy John ever this relevant as a player? Um, we gotta ask you about this.
26:44
By the way, the Tommy Lasorda joke was, thank God that Billy Grabarkewitz didn't hurt his arm, 'cause then we'd be talking about Billy Grabarkewitz surgery, uh, for the rest of time.
26:54
[laughs] What, what- I know who that is too. [laughs] Yeah, me too. I think I had a baseball card of his. But this is, this is really bad.
27:03
Like, here we have Spencer Strider, where it hasn't been, uh, confirmed yet, but it appears as though Spencer Strider, um, may have to have Tommy John surgery. He had Tommy John surgery when he was at Clemson in 2019.
27:15
Mm-hmm. Uh, we already found out about Shane Bieber. He's gonna have TJ. Um, is it the pitch clock, Paul? Do you buy that that's what's doing it? No, it's, it's not the pitch clock.
27:26
I'm not even sure that the pitch clock is necessarily exacerbating it. We're always looking for a single smoking gun, and it's never really just one thing. But if, if it is gonna be one thing, it's the velocity.
27:38
This isn't new. The pitch clock didn't just bring in this era. It's an convenient scapegoat because fatigue pitchers do, you know, pitch worse and, and will get hurt more.
27:49
And so by lowering the pitch clock, you are creating more fatigue, which can breed more injuries. But I don't think the data is there to suggest that this is the reason behind it.
27:58
It is the velo with which players throw with. And we're show, we're, it's very clear that the, the innings management things that we're trying aren't doing anything.
28:07
So frankly, I think you should just be using a player's bullets when he's got 'em, you know? When a guy shows that he's ready to go, use him.
28:13
Now, I'm not saying run him into the ground and be irresponsible and just, you know, let guys throw a buck 30, uh, you know, 130 pitches every outing, but, but enough with the babying stuff of, like, 60 innings this year and then 90.
28:27
That's not working. Let guys throw when they're healthy, and if they, if they break, they're gonna break. They're, you, you cannot prevent the breakage is the point.
28:36
So- And, and I think we're just seeing that because of the velocity. So unless there's a change there, and I think the only real change you could do, you can't tell 'em to throw slower.
28:43
That's not gonna happen, 'cause that's where the money is. You get money based off of being able to throw hard. Uh, would be to move the mound back a little bit. Not feet.
28:51
I'm talking inches to start, but obviously that would start to curb velocity. I think that's really the only, only way we're gonna see the velocity start to slow though.
29:01
Stefania Bell may have, may have had the most salient sort of explanation. She goes, "This is a multifactorial problem.
29:05
Max effort, max velocity, overuse, early specialization, and more throwers seem to be training towards metrics like spin rate, et cetera, versus functionality.
29:14
Bottom line, pitching demands" And I think this is what I said last week, which is I, I just said, "Humans aren't intended to throw this fast." She said, "Pitch- Correct.
29:21
"Pitching demands exceed biology," which is her way of saying what I did, which is, I think that's it, right? And, and Ozzie Guillen's old school line is, "Fat doesn't get pulled," right?
29:32
So he was, like, talking about the players of yesteryear. Yeah. The reason they didn't have these injuries, 'cause they weren't as tightly wound of an athletic specimen, was his very layman sort of explanation.
29:42
A- absolutely, and, like, there, there is something to that. And, you know, people wonder, "Well, why were the guys able to throw so many innings back then?"
29:48
Because they were downshifting and then upshifting for a tough batter and kind of getting through. It's not that they were better or tougher or anything like that. It was a completely different game.
29:57
They weren't asked to empty the tank at full bore for as many pitches as you can. That's what we ask of our pitchers today.
30:03
If we were still playing the way we did back in the day, then your top pitchers of today would be going 300 innings.
30:09
You don't think Corbin Burnes could, could pitch like the guys of yesteryear, but even do it at a, at a better clip? Of course he could.
30:15
But the MLB way is full bore from pitch one, whether you're facing the one hitter or the nine hitter. There's just not really any sort of management and downshifting because everyone can go bridge on you.
30:29
That's the thing. Ev- everyone can go yard. There aren't as many weak spots.
30:33
Obviously, there's weaker hitters than versus the studs, but not nearly to the degree that we would see back in the day, where some guys were purely in there for defense, and they couldn't hit to save their lives.
30:44
That's an easy out. That's two pitches. Then you go hard against, you know, Reggie Jackson when he comes up. So different game, but Stefania does nail it. It is multifactorial. The velo is the biggest change, though.
30:55
That's the biggest thing, is that guys are just throwing harder and harder, and at such a young age, that the breakage is just part of it.
31:02
I mean, you got some psychotic parents out there wanting their kids to get TJ so that they can throw- [laughs] Oh my God... you know, thinking that they can throw harder. Yeah. Oh. It's insane.
31:11
I remember Jesse Foppert, who used to play for the Giants, lived down the hallway from me in, in San Francisco, and he became a pitching tutor. And he used to say the parents were the worst.
31:17
Like, the parents- Oh, there's no doubt... yeah, he said the parents were- The-... were just the worst. Uh, we're- They're a big part of it. Yeah... going to the specialization piece.
31:24
I know we're moving on from this, but, like, that's a big part of it, too, is that they're gonna push these kids to go year-round. Every player talks about play multiple sports. Don't go too crazy with this.
31:34
The parents don't allow it. Uh, real quick one-word answer: uh, does it make you not want to bet Cy Young futures this early?
31:42
In other words, at least if you're gonna bet a Cy Young future, make the run-up, the ramp sh- as short as you can so as not to have to dodge these Tommy John surgeries. No, but it's why I'll go with a long shot.
31:55
I know that's not one word, but, uh, that's why I'll go with a long shot because the injuries are gonna probably break the top guys at some point anyway. I see.
32:01
So in other words, d- don't ever just choose a shorter shot because it's- Exactly... it's already a bad deal. Don't make it even, you know. Not, not in March. Yeah. I'm not taking Strider.
32:10
Not that I didn't think he could win it. Right. But give me the guy who's a long shot, and then let's reassess in July. Give me your DFS thoughts for the day, 'cause we do have full baseball today.
32:18
We do have full baseball, and we have Colorado. So you can get Colorado and Arizona. An interesting pivot would be to use Gallen out there, though. Obviously, this Rockies offense is not particularly scary.
32:28
So I am kind of intrigued by that notion. Can't go with Blake Snell today. I'm excited to see him pitch, but he's the top price out there. I think that's a little bit too nerve-wracking.
32:36
If you're looking for a cheap pitcher, former Tiger Spencer Turnbull looked really good in his debut against Cincinnati. I like him at St. Louis there. He's 6,900 at DraftKings. I think he's pretty interesting.
32:47
And this guy's coming off one of the worst outings, and he gets the Dodgers. But if you wanna go crazy pivot and just go off the board with, like, a 1% shot, Bailey Ober against the Dodgers.
32:57
I'm still fully in on him even after the disaster against KC. All right. Now, how about, by the way, how about the, uh, the Johnny VanderMeer, uh, flirtation yesterday? Close. Close. Whoo.
33:07
Five, and Reniel Blanco after a no-hitter, goes five and two-thirds scoreless before giving up the only hit he gave up yesterday. That was pretty amazing. Paul, thank you. Appreciate it, man. Thanks. Take care.
33:18
Wearing the cap of the eight and two Pittsburgh Pirates. Eight and two out of the gate. We'll come back. Some hockey with Jake Hahn next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:34
DraftKings Sportsbook, one of America's top-rated sportsbook apps, is giving new customers a shot to turn 5 bucks into $150 instantly in bonus bets with any college basketball bet. Download the app and use code VSIN.
33:48
Well, yeah, use that, code VSIN. When you sign up, DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours. My computer is freaking out, Kelly. Freaking out. Solar eclipse happen yet? Is that what's freaking out?
34:00
[laughs] It's kind of funny you say that. I've had some computer issues myself this morning. Freaking out. Uh, solar eclipse, by the way, you excited? Do you have eclipse fever? Sure, yeah. Totally. Yeah. Absolutely. No.
34:10
Doesn't sound... I think you're lying to me. Totally. Yeah. I think you're lying. I mean, like, I, I wanna see it. Like, it's kind of like fireworks for me. You're not supposed to look at it, Kelly.
34:16
Like, I, I want, I wanna see it for, like, a minute, and then, and then I'm good to move on with my life.
34:21
It, it will be interesting, though, to, to, to operate throughout the entire day with a, what, a shadow cast over us basically. [laughs] I don't th- I don't think that's really what's going [laughs]...
34:31
I don't think that's really what's happening. The sun's covered, right? [laughs] Whatever. Well, the full solar eclipse is when, yeah, the moon goes, right, is, is perfectly blocking the sun from the earth. Right.
34:41
We're, we're getting that today- Well, we, not-... just partially... not in Vegas- Right. Yeah... we're not getting the full. Right Yeah, like the middle of the country's getting it. Middle. Yeah. There's a strip.
34:47
So we're gonna get a little sliver of sun. Yeah. But don't look right at it. So, so am I not to say maybe it's not overcast and shadow, but we're gonna have le- less light than we would normally. Oh, yes. For a s- Right?
34:59
... for a spell. For a spell. But not, like, all day. Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. For, like, a couple hours.
35:03
I think I heard we're supposed to start seeing this basically as soon as the show gets over, like in an hour. I think, like, an hour after the show. Yeah. Jake Hahn might be in, uh, full solar eclipse territory.
35:13
I'm not sure. Comes to us from Canada. Where in Canada? Toronto, I think. Progressive guest line, uh, courtesy of that. He joins us. How you doing, Jake? Uh, I'm doing great, guys. Very close.
35:22
Actually, Niagara Falls, I believe, is the spot to be today, or at least one of the spots, uh, to be.
35:27
If I, if I bought a boat or rented a boat and went out, uh, into the middle of Lake Ontario, I might be able to, to grab a good spot. But I, I don't plan on doing that with my day.
35:35
I've got a, a Jays home opener to go to tonight, which I'm, uh- There you go... that's very important. Yeah. So you're, so you're going to the Jays home opener.
35:43
Uh, does, does American college basketball move the needle at all for you? Oh, big time. And it actually works out perfectly, although sometimes they push the first pitch back a little bit with the home opener.
35:54
You get some stuff happening before, maybe a longer anthem. They bring out this big Canadian flag. Uh, but about a 7:10 first pitch. So hopefully with a quick game, maybe the, the pitchers cooperate. And what is it?
36:05
A 9:20 tip-off tonight. I can head right to the, right to the bar after and watch the, uh, watch the, the college basketball finals. Oh, that's true. It works out perfectly. That's true. Yeah.
36:13
It starts out, starts late enough where you can do a double-header. Yeah. You can watch an entire baseball game before it even begins. Yeah. Yeah.
36:19
Jake, what, what if you had to take your boat out but not your boat out to the wa- then would you watch the solar eclipse? Would it be the same thing? No. No, it's not. Okay. Not the same, the same thing.
36:29
[laughs] No, not the same thing at all. I was just curious. Uh, wait. So before we get to hockey, which I know you're here to talk about, but this is much more interesting to us, have you made any Masters bets yet?
36:37
And if not, who are you thinking about making? Yeah, so that's a great question. And, and, uh, in previous years, I probably would have a portfolio of maybe at least three or four guys up to this point.
36:46
But I find the futures market, uh, these days in golf to be Kind of weak, right?
36:51
They, they put a lot of these numbers up there, and it's almost like, okay, if you, if you really need to get your Masters bets in, you can get them in. But I find the week of, you tend to get the best numbers.
37:00
And, and the market sort of settles a little bit, and guys that I want to bet, I end up getting a better number on.
37:05
Maybe even get some promo- promotions out there from the sports books trying to compete for your dollars, because you do... You know, it's a big week, right? It's Masters week.
37:12
A lot of people, a lot of casuals will come in and bet the event.
37:14
So I find the, the last couple of years, I, I usually wait until the week of, unless there's a, a real good young player that you can find at triple digits that you want to beat the market on.
37:24
Uh, those are the only guys that I would tend to jump on, uh, early. So nothing yet for me, guys.
37:29
I have my eye on probably five, six guys, uh, to, to build a card this week, and I'm, I'm curious if, if Kelly, Gil, uh, either of you guys have anything in. Yeah, I'd ask Kelly. I have none yet.
37:39
I have three so far, and mainly going along the lines of what Jake was just talking about.
37:43
Masters, you can kind of add some guys along the way, but you got to make sure, like Jake just said, that it's gonna be a better number of when you're betting it than when you get week of.
37:52
I do think when you're talking top of the board, like Jake just said, you're m- usually better off just waiting till week of and seeing how books, uh, uh, reshape things.
38:00
But I do have, I have JT, Hideki Matsuyama, and Will Zalatoris. So I love my Hideki, uh, bet at 34 to 1 from, like, a month ago. I love that one.
38:10
Uh, but this is where, you know, you're kind of gambling on taking these prices earlier in the year. Zalatoris and JT not playing as hot, uh, recently. We'll see.
38:17
I still like those guys and how they fit at the Masters, uh, but, you know, not bets that I would make right now. Okay, fair enough. Um- Love, love the Hideki bet. Love the form that Hideki's in, uh, right now, guys.
38:30
I'm gonna have a tough time staying away from my guy Shane Lowry. It's, [laughs] it's just difficult. He seems to love this course. I know... You feel like he's going to be in the mix on the weekend.
38:38
It's just actually winning the event. At the, at the end of the day, it does feel like a big boy's gonna win this event, and I would count Hideki in that big boy conversation.
38:46
I mean, he's won the Masters before, obviously. He's very comfortable, and he comes in in just unbelievable form.
38:51
His around the green, uh, around the green work, which is, you're obviously really gonna need this week at Augusta, uh, is going to come in handy.
38:58
So I really do think that the winner comes from that first page, uh, of the odds board, and, uh, and Hideki certainly has to be in that conversation right now.
39:06
I also s- Yeah, so it's funny you seized on that, because after the show on Friday, Kelly will vouch for me on this, I actually brought up the fact that you had Hideki, and I think if we did, totally unscientific, but if we did a...
39:20
If we had a way of going back into VSiN history, not just this show, but every show on VSiN, golf, that, that ever spoke golf, and if we aggregated the amount of time that we have spent collectively on Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, and I would even extend it past them, right?
39:35
Yeah, Xander Schauffele. Zalatoris. Yeah. [laughs] Schauffele, Spieth. Like, if we did that, they all have a chunk of time.
39:42
And I think of the, of the big names in golf, Hideki is the guy that we've spent the least time proportionally on for his talent level. Would you agree with that? I, y- yeah, probably.
39:52
I would also say, you know, he's been up and down over the past few years, and this is probably the b- right now, is one of the best stretches of golf that he's put together over the past couple months, uh, in years.
40:04
Uh, uh, so yeah, I think there's a reason why we're talking about him right now. Still one of the great iconic golf moments, when he won the Masters and his caddy bowed- Oh, sports moments, right?... on 18.
40:13
Like, that still gives me chills. Just chills. Yeah. Absolutely. All right, uh, hockey. About four games left, and yet somehow we're extending the season, the regular season 10 more days. We're still milking this.
40:22
Um- Yeah... but obviously teams are jockeying for position, uh, in the wildcard race, uh, in both the East and West.
40:31
Give me the proverbial team that is either just in or just out that could, that could get flipped on, either East or West, the proverbial team that no one wants to face, and they'd rather them not even make the postseason at all.
40:45
Is there a team like that? Yeah, I think in the East, that team probably doesn't exist.
40:50
Uh, uh, we've been following this, uh, Eastern Conference playoff race, if we even want to call it that, for a while now, and it's, it's tough.
40:56
It's one of those years, and you guys probably see this covering the NBA, where you get a year and there's just...
41:00
You know, someone's got to make the seven seed or the eight seed, or I guess now it's a, it's sort of a pl- a play-in type situation.
41:05
You get teams that are five games below 500, and you just know they're gonna be, you know, served up to the top seeds in the first round. That's what I'm seeing in the Eastern Conference right now.
41:14
There's about five teams battling for the two playoff spots. I don't see any of those teams doing any sort of damage. Maybe Pittsburgh.
41:21
If Pittsburgh gets in with some good vibes and Sidney Crosby playing at this level, I could see them giving someone a good ro- uh, round in the first round, but ultimately not factoring into a, to a cup conversation or anything like that.
41:32
I still go back to Nashville in the Western Conference. They were as hot as anybody for about a month. Cooled off a little bit, but now they're back to finding their game again.
41:40
I think the Preds are the team that, uh, that no one seed in either conference wants to face in the first round. Yeah, Preds right now inhabiting the number one wildcard position.
41:48
They look pretty safe, uh, to make the, uh, to make the playoffs. Th- you're right, though, the East is a complete log jam there with the, uh, Red Wings, Penguins, Caps, and Flyers all one point.
42:03
Right now the Red Wings inhabiting the number two position, but the Penguins, Caps, Flyers one point behind.
42:08
And I guess in the case of, like, um, some of the Metro teams, like the Caps, they could get in a different way, too, right? They could still make it via the division route as well, so it's gonna be interesting.
42:17
We only have two games in hockey tonight. Uh, basketball, the NBA clears out for the college basketball national championship. Uh, baseball does not. Full day of baseball.
42:26
But two games in hockey, uh, and I'm curious if you have any thoughts on the Penguins and the Maple Leafs, with the Leafs a minus 160 favorite, and the Golden Knights and the Canucks, with the Canucks a shorter minus 125 favorite.
42:38
Yeah, both games a lot of intrigue here, guys.
42:40
I think you have a, you know, Canucks, Vegas, you're looking at two teams trying to find their game before the playoffs, and, and Pittsburgh and, and Toronto, just a massive game for that Eastern Conference playoff race that we just talked about, right?
42:51
With the, the Penguins making this charge. Everybody left the Penguins for dead a couple weeks ago. This team was done.
42:56
You know, they traded off, uh, one of their top players at the deadline, and they had to start to look towards the future in, in Jake Guentzel, and now all of a sudden there's a possibility they could play each other in the first round.
43:05
If the Penguins get that three spot in the Metro that you just talked about, Gil, they would likely play Carolina, where Jake Guentzel went in the first round.
43:11
So that is still on the table, a bit of a, a revenge factor there. He played with Crosby for, for so many years. So the Penguins are coming in playing some good hockey.
43:19
I just, I don't love the price for them in Toronto against a good Maple Leafs team, uh, that still does have their sights set on trying to get home ice advantage in the first round, and trying to pile up goals for Auston Matthews as well.
43:29
So I like the Leafs to get it done. Uh, and I, I lean towards the Vancouver Canucks here on home ice. I think this is a pretty fair price, although Vegas has found their game.
43:37
You guys have asked me about the Knights- Yeah... quite a bit when I've been on with you. It does seem like the Golden Knights are starting to find their game a little bit, uh, heading into the playoffs.
43:45
[upbeat music] All right, Jake Hahn, let it be noted that he is, uh, choosing the Jays over the Leafs tonight. Likes a home opener in baseball more than the Leafs. Who's on the back of his- I get the Leafs game Thursday.
43:56
Oh, there you go. Okay. [laughs] His street cred has- Turned it around... has been retained. By the way, who's on the b- Jays jersey? Back, on, uh, on the back of it. It's a Roy Halladay jersey. Roy Halladay.
44:06
There you go. Thank you, Jake. My favorite. We're coming back. College basketball. Dr. Bob next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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