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Apr 9, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 9, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 9, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:34
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's the Numbers Game. Gil Alexander, Kelly Betland in the hizzy. Heyo.
0:21
What's happening? Not much, man. How about you? By the hiz- by the hizzy, I mean Circa. Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
0:28
Uh, less than 48 hours before the beginning of a tradition unlike any other, the 89th Masters. Heavy, are you ready to go heavy on golf one more time, Kelly? Yeah. You're not, you're not golfed out yet? No, man.
0:39
Let's go. I'm ready to talk about it for at least 24 more hours. You are so ready for this to tee off already. [laughs] Hey, it's Masters Week. I, uh, don't we feel like that for, like, the, during the Super Bowl?
0:49
How often do we say that after a, the, the week in between of the Super Bowl, you're like, "Let's kick off this game already"? Oh. The, the Masters at least you say. If there was any week to go golf heavy- No, exactly...
0:57
and we will today. That's what I'm saying. This is the week, this is the day. That's what I'm saying. This is- The Super Bowl is, is just a interminable slog. Yeah, it, the two weeks. Yes. The two weeks is ridiculous.
1:07
[laughs] No question about it. Nah, man, it's been great. Um, far more bets than I thought I'd end up with. I knew you would do that. Yeah. See, I'm trying to tamper it down. Trying to tamper it down.
1:17
I don't regret any of them. Ask me that on Monday, but I don't regret any of them right now. Well, it's Wednesday. I hope not. [laughs] I'll ask you the same question tomorrow.
1:25
[laughs] Same time, see what happens on Friday. Yeah. Uh, we do have Si Najjad to talk Masters with us as well today. Uh, he from the Monumental Sports Network, all of his Masters thoughts.
1:35
Um, I don't know, we'll ask every guest really for their Masters talk, uh, Masters thoughts and bets even though they're talking about other things. Michael Monosono on NBA awards.
1:43
JVT on this Michael Malone firing yesterday with three games left in the season, uh, for the Denver Nuggets. They're like, "Coach, GM, you guys can't fi- you can't figure it out, you're both gone." So that's interesting.
1:56
I've finally gotten to the bottom of it all. Uh-oh, you got a loose, uh, beard, beard hair again. No. Once again, it's sticking straight out. Oh, wow. That's gonna, uh, distract me at all for two hours.
2:04
It's gonna bother Gil. It's gonna bother Gil. I finally figured it out, Gil. Both the, everybody in the Western Conference is so terrified of the Oklahoma City Thunder- Ah...
2:12
that they're just getting ahead of off-season moves. Is that what, something she came up with? [laughs] So instead of losing and then having to fire your head coach, they're just getting it out of the way now. I see.
2:21
I'm gonna say that's incorrect, but okay, let's go with that. Um, baseball yesterday, let us begin there. May we begin there? Yeah, of course. Um- Overs abound...
2:31
Oakland and Sacramento last night, or we should say from Oakland to Sac Town, Bay Area and back down. Who knew Tupac Shakur was talking about baseball overs- I like-... all those years ago?
2:41
I like that you are correctly teaching me those lyr- lyrics, 'cause I always thought it was from the Bay Area to Sac Town. But no, I've got the lines mixed up. That's right.
2:51
If you could take away anything from this show, let it be that. Mm-hmm. Uh, last night we went, uh, over, first five and full game in Sacramento.
2:59
I also had an over first three, by the way, one, uh, stray skin that I did as well. Uh, how about one inning of baseball? Yeah, let's do this. At the end of one, it's your Athletics six, the Padres three, over.
3:12
They are never that easy. Let's just point that out.
3:14
If you're new to betting, if t- if yesterday was your first day of betting, and that was the first bet you ever placed, do you think there's somebody out there, that was the first bet they ever placed? Uh, man.
3:24
'Cause, 'cause just quit now. That's a great question. [laughs] Just wrap it up after that one. Probably. Probably. Yeah, no, that, it does not get, it does not get any, uh, easier than that one.
3:34
Um, as, uh, Oakland rolls to a 10-4 win over the Padres, and the question becomes, and again, for those who, for those who missed it, my explanation of this has to do with the Athletics, primarily their roster construction and how it conformed to a lot of foul ground in Oakland with fly ball pitchers, and how now when they make the transition to Sacramento, well, that will result in O- in, in overs because a lot of these balls that would've gotten caught in Oakland continued to be pitched to the opposing batters.
4:04
And when you have two fly ball pitchers going at it in these scenarios, we just keep betting the over. Today, once again, guess what? Guess what? It's not rhetorical. You're in. Two, two fly ball pitchers.
4:18
Once again, now I haven't bet the first five yet 'cause I, I didn't see it before the, uh, show, but I did bet the over in the full game. I will add the first five as well.
4:24
Um, Oakland, again, not Oakland, the Athletics, pardon me, hosting the San Diego Padres. [laughs] How dare you? Uh, Randy Vasquez going for the San Diego Padres. Uh, Osvaldo Bido going for the, uh, Oakland Athletics.
4:36
Guess what? Fly b- uh, not the Oakland Athletics, the Athletics. Fly ball pitcher, fly ball pitcher, we're going over again. Now, they did adjust to nine and a half this time. Yeah.
4:46
So w- and yesterday was, remember, we got an eight and a half. They bet against, the market went against this down to eight, and, um, that went over again in the first inning.
4:55
So over nine and a half is the play, and I'll do a, uh, I'll do a first five here by the end of the show, probably by the next break as well. Now quest- question for you. Yes, sir. I wanted to, wanted to ask you.
5:03
I mean, nine and a half, do you think we're seeing, is that, is that 100% park adjustment in what we've seen go on so far?
5:11
Or does this, does this have to do with pitchers, or is it most likely just a- Oh, they're, they're, it's, it's-... little bit of both... their first adjustment. It's their first- Oh, first adjustment. Yes. Okay. Okay.
5:19
It's their first adjustment, for sure. And, and the fact that it, well, no, I shouldn't say that, because there's bullpen exhaustion today as well. So that's part of it, for sure. Okay.
5:28
So it's not complete ballpark adjustment. But a large chunk of it. You think we've gotten to that point? I think w- I think we're seeing the first signs of it.
5:35
And, you know- 'Cause it's also, it's become a c- it's become a popular betting story too. Yes, of course.
5:40
Be- and yesterday, by the way, everybody who was reacting and everybody was, was so pumped on Twitter yesterday reacting to us, um, but they were also like, "Hey, can we keep it down from now on?"
5:48
It's like, it's kind of too late. It's, yeah, it's out. Yeah. It's out. It's out there.
5:51
By the way, real quick, I do, for those who are interested, I do have a tennis bet that's about to start in Monte Carlo on T- I'm on, I'm on Frances Tiafoe, big T, big foe. Nice. Against, uh, Alexei Popyrin.
6:01
Uh, Tiafoe is a, uh, slight dog in this. Slight plus money. We're playing Tiafoe. If you want, you know, if you wanna sweat during the show today. Back to baseball for a second. The other implication of the Athletics
6:13
win over the Padres is that we kind of hit a, a de facto, not an actual bet, but we hit a de facto three-team parlay yesterday that keeps the race to 10 alive. Can you believe that this is still alive?
6:28
So let's, first of all, the March-April bet is on the Twins. The Twinkies couldn't be any worse. Like, I don't know what happened with them.
6:34
They, they are just, uh, so far through April 9th or through April 8th, they've just been terrible in the March-April.
6:40
But as far as our race to 10, we have the New York Metropolitans at 17 to 1, race to 10 wins in Major League Baseball. Can we show the New Yo- uh, the path that I had with the Mets? Um, this is when you're doing this.
6:50
Not, not that one, guys, but the other one before that. Yeah, if we-- When I'm doing this handicap, you go through the games, right?
6:56
And then the series that the team is about to play, and you sort of project what their path is, and this one is to a finite 10 wins.
7:02
And so on the left, what we have here is the projected path that I had them going to 10 and three, which is to say, and remember when I first talked about this Mets bet race to 10, I said, "Let's say they only go one and two against the Astros to start."
7:16
By the way, the, the, the other thing about that thing last night, before I forget, Fezzik immediately, like, texts on the group text yesterday, "I'm going under. Let's bet dinner on that Athletics game yesterday."
7:26
So within one inning I have a dinner at Delilah's courtesy of the brash, smack talking Steve Fezzik. There you go. No, no dinner will ever taste as good. Uh, I was gonna ask you where, you beat me to the punch.
7:37
You picked a g- uh, one of the correct options. He, he picked it for me. 'Cause I, my, my follow-up was gonna be like, "Is he gonna use like a Caesars out here?" But no, no, you went Delilah's. You're making him pay.
7:47
Here's the thing with Stevie, yappity yap, yap, yap. But there's a couple sports, I just keep my mouth shut. I'm like, "Okay, Stevie, you wanna challenge me on this? Go ahead." [laughs] Anyway, back to the Mets.
7:56
Projected path, uh, 10 and three. And I said when I talked about this or- originally, I was like, Houston, let's say they go one and two against Houston.
8:02
And by the way, Stevie did say, "If they go one and two, they're not gonna win this." He might be right about that.
8:07
Um, but then I had them sweeping the Marlins, going two and one against the Jays, sweeping the Marlins again, and winning that last, that 10th game f- to, to open up at Sacramento. So it didn't quite go that way.
8:20
They did go one and two against Houston. The Miami and Toronto series were flipped based on what I had 'em at. And Miami, they've won the first two games. So basically they're exactly where I thought they would be.
8:28
The New York Mets at eight and three. Here's the thing now. In these standings of the race to 10, the Padres lose to the Athletics. They're nine and three. The Dodgers lose again to the Nationals. They're nine and four.
8:42
The Dodgers have lost four of their last five after starting eight and one. The Cubbies win yesterday. Remember, the Cubs play that initial two-game set before the actual domestic s- uh, season started.
8:55
They played that two-game set against the, uh, Dodgers in To- was it in Tokyo, I believe, to begin the season? Okay, Kelly's looking at me like I don't know. Uh, nine. So the Cubbies are now- It was, right?
9:04
Yeah, I believe so. They, they beat the Rangers, so they're nine and five. So the Padres, Dodgers, and Cubs all have nine wins. They've got the inside track. Any of those three teams can win the race to 10 today.
9:15
And by the way, in most of those cases, they're all favored. I think they're favored in all three cases, some more, more dramatically than the others.
9:22
Our Mets for this market, eight and three now, with the Giants having lost yesterday, eight and three, and the Rangers having lost at eight and four. So here's the diliosis.
9:32
We have to hit a de facto-- After hitting the d- the de facto three-team parlay with the, uh, Mets win and the Dodgers and Padres losses yesterday, we have to hit a de facto four-team parlay today, which is a Mets win, and the Mets will get the first crack at it this morning, once again hosting the Marlins.
9:48
They ought to win that, and we will have the ultimate tease, right?
9:51
We will have the Mets get to nine, and then either the Padres, Dodgers, or Cubs will win one of their games today, get to 10, and we will be knocked out of this.
9:59
But if we hit this, that the Mets win today, and let's just say the Padres lose to the A's, the Dodgers lose to the Nationals, and the Cubs lose to the Rangers. Hey, anything is possible.
10:10
I believe Kevin Garnett once said that. Then what would happen is, this is exactly what he meant for the race to 10. This is exactly what- [laughs] When he screamed that, he was like- Anything is possible.
10:18
In the race to 10 in 2025. Um, if that happens, all of the teams pictured on the screen, including the Giants and Rangers, everybody's idle tomorrow, and then it would be a decision on Friday.
10:31
And why do I say it will absolutely be a decision for the race to 10 on Friday? Because the Cubs play the Dodgers, so we will have a dead heat.
10:42
If, if that scenario happens today, which again is a long shot to happen, but if it does, we will have a dead heat of some kind on Friday that will either include our Mets or not,
10:54
because none of them play tomorrow, and because the Cubs play the Dodgers on, on, uh, Friday. We are guaranteed somewhat- Right... at least one team gets to 10.
11:02
So the best we can do is a dead heat of two, but most likely what happens is we're knocked out today.
11:08
But the fact that we're still talking about this, the da- you know, like the, when the Mets were busy starting two and three, 'cause they've won six in a row, and the fact that we've ended up right where we thought we would end up and the Dodgers just stopped winning baseball games, is pretty incredible.
11:23
So looks like we're about to have the ultimate tease, but you never know. None of those, none of those teams are huge favorites today, though. Dodgers minus 180, I mean, they're, they're the biggest. It's the biggest.
11:34
Padres are dogs against the A's. Yeah, Kelly guessing lines on baseball. That would not, I would not have had that. [laughs] Let's not, uh, let's not do that. Uh, we'll come back and we'll talk, uh, some golf.
11:45
JBT will join us, talk NBA. It's a numbers game at Visa. The Sports Betting Network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights right now.
12:02
You can check out Wes Reynolds' Masters preview. It is there. It has marinated, and it is available for reading. Is this a year for Rory McIlroy trying to get the, uh, career Grand Slam?
12:12
And Greg Peterson's MLB picks later today. You can check out Zack Cohen's NBA best bets, Steve Makinen's MLB and NBA analytics reports, and Jonathan Davis' NHL picks.
12:22
Right now, you can sign up for our summer special for only $59 for full VSiN Pro access until August 1st. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Never used to being on camera when I, uh, read the promos there.
12:33
I mean, I'll start. Hoops right back at it, huh? He d- he doesn't, uh, hibernate for a, for a week or two after, uh- No. Hoops, hoops, there's two things with hoops. Hoops- Hoops...
12:42
college hoops, thus the nickname, ergo the nickname And never stopping running... and Major League Baseball, all while jogging with his headphones on and microphone in his hand, as we've seen. Extremely impressive.
12:55
And Brent Musburger following him in a, uh, vehicle, uh, narrating the whole thing. [laughs] I think that's true. That's, uh, that's exactly how it was done, yeah. [laughs] Yeah? Okay. I'm just curious.
13:05
Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. This is from, uh, this is from Martin Callaway. He says, "How about the over hitting in the first inning, but the Padres team total not clearing last night?"
13:13
Yeah, four and a half on the Padres team total. That's not fun for those who had the over there. Primetime, uh, "Yo. Hey, man, best week of the year.
13:22
Oh, yeah, scheduled my fake annual vasectomy appointment for Masters [laughs] week, and in-" [laughs] That's great. "And installed Peach Crown as a minus 40, uh, 420 favorite bottle of my annual spring break.
13:33
And, yes, I plan on consolidating the break. Boom. #traditionlikenoother." Boom. Uh, let's see. Uh, Seth Holycross, "Morning, guys. I found your show after taking betting seriously this year. Great show.
13:45
Thanks for what you do. I love baseball, and I'm s- " He says, "We are 16 and 5 this year so far while watching your show and using angles from, [laughs] from 1980. Haha, let's go." There you go.
13:56
I don't know that part, my man, but okay. 16 and 5 is 16 and 5. That's right. Um- I think he's just calling you old. Yeah. I think that's what it was, Gilley. Maybe it was. You know, I, I do, I do remember 1980.
14:07
And what- I do not. I just want that on the record... and what, and what of it? [laughs] That's my point.
14:11
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, let's talk some, uh, some multiple sports, but maybe NBA first and, uh, foremost, with Jonathan Vontobel, our senior NBA analyst, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
14:20
You can follow him on Twitter at me, JVT. John, before we do anything else, do you have a Masters selection? This is a mandatory question I'm asking of everybody today. Sure. Boom, boom.
14:30
Uh, so I'm, I'm building up a portfolio. I will say the, uh, the one that I am gravitating toward that I like for some whatever odd reason, uh, I'm feeling my boy Justin Rose this week. Ooh.
14:39
Uh, I think he can get this done. Over 66 rounds played at the Masters. Uh, he's actually top 10 in true strokes gained. Uh, I think we know that he's a good putter, especially if that thing gets hot.
14:49
Uh, he can get it done. So if we're saying pick the outright you feel the best about, uh, the Justin Rose long shot, I am in. He's like 100 to 1, right? Something like that. Yeah, baby, 115 to 1.
14:59
Let's get this thing going. I believe in him. Uh, hopefully, I've been making fun of Matt Humans 'cause he really hates Sergio Garcia, and, uh, I really hope that it comes down to a Sergio, Justin Rose, uh- [laughs]...
15:09
playoff once again because, uh, Humans did have Justin Rose that year, and he ended up, of course, not winning that thing. So, uh, I, I kinda hope for that as well.
15:15
Sergio came up on the, uh, the Beating the Book Masters, uh, podcast. He's, he's been playing very well, right? Sergio been playing excellent over on LIV. Yeah.
15:23
Comes in with, uh, the most strokes gained, uh, on the LIV season of all the LIV golfers into the Masters. Uh-oh. Watch out for Sergio. I, I like the Rose selection, JVT. I considered him for a first-round leader bet.
15:35
Hmm. Didn't end up making it, but I considered him. Yeah. What was his first round number? Uh, it was, like, 60, 70 to 1. Oh, that all? Okay. All right. Um, every, again, every guest will have a Masters thought or two.
15:46
Uh, let's talk NBA and the big news yesterday.
15:47
And we got off air here yesterday, John, and, uh, with three games left in the season, and now today, this morning, you could say it, at least with all the teams in the Western Conference, um, playoff picture, three games left.
15:58
That's the story in the NBA.
16:00
And the Denver Nuggets go ahead and say, "You know, um, let's match the deepest into a season, uh, ever firing a coach," and they do so by firing Michael Malone, the winningest coach in Nuggets history.
16:12
Won a championship here, obviously, a couple years ago, and then they let the GM go as well. What do you make of that, sir? Uh, I think it's a little ridiculous.
16:22
L- I, I think that this is a Nuggets team, when you talk about ownership and the front office, that let a championship roster deteriorate.
16:29
We, we saw how good they were, how deep they were, and then they cry poor when Kentavious Caldwell-Pope comes up for free agency and say, "Nah, we can't deal with the second apron. We can't deal with the luxury tax.
16:38
We gotta let him go."
16:39
And the pieces that you have acquired, whether it be through the draft or through free agency, to put on this roster to supplement the losses you've taken over the last few years, have not really panned out.
16:49
Christian Braun is a good player, but that's really about it when you look at the depth of this roster. They've allowed this to happen. It's a group that doesn't play very well defensively.
16:57
In the year of our Lord, 2025, DeAndre Jordan is your backup center. There are things that I don't really understand why they have done the things that they have done from a construction standpoint.
17:07
And then at the end of the year, when you're still pushing for 50 wins, [laughs] by the way, uh, you are looking at Michael Malone, who is a hardass.
17:13
And I don't know about you guys, Humans and I talked about this yesterday, that probably does rub some people the wrong way. I enjoy that sort of leadership, the no-nonsense, this is what you're doing wrong.
17:22
But maybe that wears down. But you hear from people in Denver, and it doesn't seem like some of the players really wanted this to happen. There was a lot of respect for Malone.
17:30
It seemed that there was a constant pissing match between him and Booth in the front office, and it ultimately led to them, to them getting, uh, or excuse me, f- to them letting him go. So I don't agree with it.
17:38
I think this is a team that's in a tailspin at this point right now, as we know. They've lost four straight heading into the matchup with Sacramento tonight. But I, I don't agree at all. And think about this.
17:46
I texted this to Kelly and Zach Gill. On the free agent market for coaches, you've got two [laughs] really good ones in Taylor Jenkins and Michael Malone.
17:53
Oh, and by the way, Mike Brown was fired this year, and he had a great record for Sacramento.
17:57
So a lot of great coaches, but I, I hate this move for Denver Year of our Lord and pissing in the same, uh, paragraph there from JVT That's right And just wanna note that.
18:04
Um, okay, so from a gambling standpoint, if you, and I'm not saying you are, John. Mm-hmm But if, if you were bullish on Denver, Denver right now eight to one to win the West, double that up for the, for the NBA title.
18:15
If you were bullish in any potential path for the Nuggets, does this affect that for you if you had that opinion? I, I mean, I guess to an extent, right?
18:25
I, I just, I have, I would say that if you were bullish on them, I don't know what you were watching. But if I was that guy, I, I don't know if this would really change too much for you.
18:33
You still have the best player on the floor in Nikola Jokic. You, you still got a, a decent roster around him, especially when you're talking about the starting five.
18:40
I, I don't know how much a coach like Malone changes things to a degree. Now, I do think that he is a coach that adds wins on the margins. I think he's a great Xs and Os guy.
18:49
I think he'll have them prepared, certain out of bounds plays, things like that.
18:52
Maybe you don't get that to the extent that Malone would offer it to you, but is that enough, that difference, to get you off of your position, if you will? So I don't think that would be the case.
19:01
I, I would feel that if you're high on Denver before this firing, a lot of your logic is I've got Nikola Jokic, bro, and nobody else does, and you still have Nikola Jokic, bro.
19:10
So I think that you're going to be fine if that was part of your logic heading into the firing.
19:14
Give us the JVT most outlying opinion, three games shy of the playoffs in the East, and the JVT most outlying opinion in the West. It could be a s- potential series matchup- Sure...
19:26
who you think might win, whatever the case. So I think in the East, I don't know if this is too outlying, uh, but I think it's maybe the, the, the, not the mi- the, the majority.
19:34
I do think the Pistons can win a playoff series a- and I think that they're a legitimately, like, dangerous team in that regard. They, they are very big at the most key position, which is up front at point guard.
19:43
They have a very good coach in JB Bickerstaff.
19:45
They've had a shooting around Cade Cunningham that they can take on weak perimeter defense like that of the New York Knicks, uh, who they might face in the first round, whoever it may be.
19:53
I think the Pistons are a legitimate threat to win a first round playoff series.
19:57
And when you have an alpha player like Cade Cunningham, I think that's something that a lot of people would not want to deal with if you're talking about an opposing team.
20:04
So I don't know if that's, like, a super outlier p- opinion, but depending on where they're priced in their first round series, I'll be gravitating toward the Pistons, whether it is to win the series outright or, you know, within a couple of games, whatever it is, and how the market's priced.
20:15
In the Western Conference, I mean, I guess the outlier performance, we talked about this last week, or the outlier opinion would be, like, uh, when do we start believing in the Clippers to an extent of being a legitimate threat?
20:26
They are now upwards of, I think, the fourth seed in the Western Conference. Th- dude, did this do this again? [laughs] Yeah, it did. What is happening? [laughs] Dude, Steve's gonna kill me. This happened last time.
20:35
It happened yesterday. I fixed this. I, uh, I can't do this. [laughs] Anyway. Just roll. [laughs] I, I... Yes. For the record, Steve Cohen, I set the sleep timer. I don't know what's happening here. [laughs] Okay.
20:45
Um, and it was actually, this actually probably isn't a good sign. [laughs] Can I tell you that this happened yesterday- Right... with the guys on the books?
20:51
Right When I was talking about the Clippers- When you bring up the Clippers. [laughs] Yeah, when I... And it happened yesterday too. It happened yesterday when I was talking about the Clippers too. So maybe it's a sign.
20:57
I don't really like this. [laughs] Oh, man. Uh, but I would say [laughs]
21:28
...
22:26
I just don't wanna get in trouble. It happened yesterday. Oh. [laughs] I mean, like I swear I, [laughs] I set it up right. Uh, thank you, John. Enjoy the games.
22:32
Good luck with the bets, and, uh, we'll talk to you as the playoffs begin, man. No more of this regular season stuff after this. Yep, looking forward to it. Thanks, guys. My man, Jonathan Votovo and me, JVT.
22:42
All right, enough messing around. The 89th Masters next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
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23:07
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23:15
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23:27
Check it out. And when I say check it out, I mean check it out. Yeah, seriously. Like this, this is one of those weeks. Oh.
23:32
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23:45
Big foe. I'm gonna leave it right there. Big foe break, Monte Carlo. Let's go. Nice. Clay season in full effect. Gil and I just figured out we're gonna do the show remotely from, uh, Europe during clay season next year.
23:54
Yep, next year, clay season, we're just gonna take a train. Right. Monte Carlo, uh, Rome, Madrid, Paris. Yeah. I think it'd be great. Yeah.
24:03
We'll set up a little studio in one of the, one of the cars, one of the train cars Sure... on the train Train cars. Sure Train. That's what they're called, right? I believe so.
24:11
Uh, yesterday in the, uh, world of deportes, there was a couple great comebacks. And by, and I'm, when I say great, I mean not for everybody. We'll get to that momentarily. But in hockey, did you see this?
24:23
The Canucks were losing to the Stars five to two, and in the final minute of regulation- No way... the Canucks put the biscuit in the basket three times. A minute left, 30 seconds left, seven seconds left.
24:36
They force overtime, and they win it. They consolidate the break, if you will. Is, is this one of the, was it, I'm sure you don't know the answer, but empty net each time? Oh, yeah, it was, they had an extra man. Okay.
24:46
They, no, no, they had an extra man, I believe, but it, but it wasn't, I don't, it, w- I mean, still, still- No, I know, I know. I always-... scored three times in the last minute...
24:54
I always wondered, though, like when, when you're down three that late, like, you know, sometimes they don't even, they don't even really try, 'cause it's like you're down three. You're not down two.
25:01
So it's like, did you maybe get the one goal, and then you're like, "All right, get off the ice. Like, we gotta get an extra skater on."
25:06
Well, I wasn't watching, quite frankly, to know all the details, but yeah, I mean, they had an extra man, all this, and they, but that's, that's never happened before in the history of the NHL. That's wild.
25:14
Never happened before. By the way, you know what else hasn't happened before that I was shocked by yesterday? The, the Celtics won their 33rd road game. It's never happened before.
25:22
The Boston Celtics storied franchise, they'd never won 33 road games. I thought that was amazing. The Celtics as a franchise? Yeah. Okay. I thought it was amazing.
25:29
The other comeback, and this is the one that's not as fun for some around here- Ah. Get it out. Get it out.
25:38
So, uh, Kelly Bidlin, my, uh, little buddy over here, he had the, uh, Timberwolves minus, was it three and a half yesterday? Three and a half, yeah. Against the, uh, Milwaukee Buckaroos.
25:47
I don't even know what we closed, like six? Yeah, six. T-Wolves, uh, winning by 24 early fourth quarter. I mean, it's Katie bar the door, right? That's over. I mean, I, Gil, uh, uh, tell me if I'm wrong here.
26:00
Tell me if I'm wrong. All right. I did the thing that you should never do as a bettor. No. I'm like, "They're up 24 points in the fourth quarter. This is over. There's too many other good NBA games on." You turned away.
26:09
I'm flipping TVs, and I'm marking it a winner, Donnie. Like, this is over. In the words of Chuckie Booker, you turned away. Um, yeah, Bucks 110- They did... T-Wolves 103. Good God, what a turnaround.
26:23
39 to eight run to close the game. [laughs] Is that good? 39 to eight. Oh, by the way, in a game of massive implications for the Timberwolves- Yes...
26:31
it should be noted, because the Timberwolves now are in the eight hole, as we just mentioned, a game behind that entire, you know, cluster of teams, Clippers, Nuggets, Warriors, Grizzlies.
26:42
So in the eight hole, remember how the play-in works in the NBA, I guess, for those who need the reminder, uh, 'cause we haven't said it yet. Seven plays eight, nine plays 10.
26:51
Seven-eight winner is your seven seed in the playoffs per conference. The loser of the seven-eight game then takes on the winner of the nine-10 game. Loser of nine-10 eliminated.
27:01
Winner of loser seven-eight, winner nine-10 becomes the eight seed. Hope that made sense. Um, so sorry about that, man. Yeah, at least your Warriors took care of business last night. Yep.
27:11
I have a feeling that was gonna be, I have a feeling that's probably my last sizable wager of the NBA regular season was that Warriors game last night. That, as JVT was bringing up, this Suns team is just, they're- Oh...
27:22
they're toast without KD, and it's, there's very little effort going on out there. Has there, I mean, I wanna say there has been, right? 'Cause there was the whole Brooklyn Big Three.
27:30
But, like, the Suns Big Three, quote-unquote, might have been even worse in terms of their body of work.
27:38
I want to, I wanna make sure I- Because the Brook- the Brooklyn Nets Big Three, they were never on the court at the same time really, right? Yeah, there was a, yes, there was a lot- Yes... of that. Yeah. And what?
27:47
We had the Durant with the foot on the, on the line, right? That's right. That could- The toe on the line... yeah, that could- That's right... who knows what could've happened. This was just an abject disaster.
27:57
Talking Booker, Durant, and Beal. I'm, I'm, I think it's gonna be really fascinating how we look back at Kevin Durant and his career in 10, 15, 20 years.
28:05
I'm always amused by the people that try to burn the Warriors by saying, "Oh, well, you know, Durant." They won two without him, one before and one after. Like, that whole narrative is nonsense.
28:15
Yeah, and he's- Durant is the guy that you should be looking at and be like, "Well, he kind of freeloaded on them." Mm-hmm.
28:21
I, I ain't, I don't, I don't- Even though on those two teams he was arguably the best player, I get it. But I'm just saying, like, the, you're right. The legacy is a fascinating thing.
28:29
He was, and I don't, I think there's a lot of, uh, like I lost a little bit of respect for him even back then when he chose to go to the Warriors.
28:35
He's the pr- he just, he has r- You know, we used to call Dusty Baker in San Francisco- 'Cause-... when Dusty Baker was the manager of the, of the Giants, we used to say he had rabbit ears. What does that mean?
28:44
That he listened to sports talk radio every night. Yes, right, yes. Right? And so- We know this about Durant... KD is, there's too much of that. He's probably listening to us right now. He is, he is totally, probably.
28:52
He's got burner accounts and everything going, yeah. Yeah. [laughs] That's right, he's listening to us right now. He's, he's angry.
28:56
I, I mean, there was the like, I mean, I know we're, I know we're going back a lot of years now, but like there was that part of me like, "Hey, you wanna be a star player in the NBA and go down?
29:05
Like, you, you don't go join up with Steph to win a ring. Like, you go do it on your own, man." Yeah, that's what them kids do today. Well, I mean, the Miami Heat did that, right?
29:12
The whole I'm taking my talents was all about that. Yeah. That's a generational thing in the NBA. The, the people of a certain age just can't comprehend it. Yeah, but that was more like the three of them coming together.
29:21
You know what I mean? That was like KD just like latching his- Yeah, you could explain it off all you want, but let me just say, you know, Michael Jordan, no one, no one was going to play with Michael Jordan.
29:31
They were like, "No, we're gonna try to beat him." That was how it was back in the day. That's, I mean- Yeah... and that's how, that's my point. I wish these guys would all still look at it that way.
29:38
Yeah, different generation. All right, the 89th Masters, a tradition unlike any other from Augusta, um, where you have, uh, and we'll go with the topic sense here.
29:47
Once again, um, the Masters, of course, the most predictive of all golf tournaments from year to year in terms of the predictive nature of each, of, of, of the course at Augusta. Uh, you have a
29:59
7,555 yard course where scoring on the par fives is the key of it all. And I just wanna seize, obviously now you have Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy who are...
30:13
the short shots to win it all, and then it's double digits for everybody else.
30:16
Uh, you and Matt Brown were kind enough, before you did all your long shot stuff yesterday with Wes, you were kind enough to do the Beating the Book podcast on the Masters. That's available for everybody as well.
30:24
And Matt's topic sentence, which we didn't start with, but we got to shortly thereafter, and I wanna see if you agree with this, 'cause this is a way to contextualize this tournament, is that Scheffler and McIlroy obviously in play.
30:38
But after that, his point was that then that entire group, Rahm, Morikawa, Schauffele, DeChambeau, Ober, JT, right? You have this, Koepka, Matsuyama.
30:49
You have this group that he said after the top two, Scheffler and McIlroy, where they're almost all not in top form.
30:56
And so it makes for a very weird dynamic this year where your bets, and I'm paraphrasing Matt, 'cause I don't wanna hold him to it literally, but basically your bets, one of your instincts ought to be to jump over that group to take a long shot.
31:10
Am I paraphrasing him correctly? Uh, you- And do you agree? I would, I would sp- I would phrase it more as I think there are, I think you did a great job at the beginning.
31:18
There are major questions in, in the- I, I strayed at some point... in the middle group. Yes.
31:21
I think, I think more of the point was look top, look right at the top of the board, or you could make, I could make just as good a cases for some guys that are further back as these guys that are in this mid-range.
31:32
That's better said. Yeah. It's better stated, correct. That, that, yes, Scheffler, McIlroy in play, but the guys beyond. 'Cause Matt ended up on Rory too, so like it, it's, it's, yeah.
31:41
Well, no, he's one of the top two, though. But I'm saying, like, that group afterwards, which in any other tournament, right, you'd be like, "Oh, well, I like Mc- Morikawa. I like Ober.
31:49
I like Koepka," whatever, that it's just because of Liv also, you just don't know with a lot of these guys. I mean, like, we, we could just, well, go down the list right now.
31:57
Rahm, okay, he's finished top 10 in every Liv event he's play, played this year. Liv fields are not very big, though, Gil. He hasn't won one. Right. Like, that's a little bit of a concern.
32:05
I think Jon Rahm's a, still one of the best players in the world, but it would be nice to know if he had won heading in. Collin Morikawa, he's struggling to win these days.
32:13
And if you go back and look at where his big wins have come, it, they came during pandemic times where there wasn't g- people on the golf course. There wasn't fans out there, and he's had trouble closing on Sundays now.
32:24
Xander Schauffele coming off of injury. Xander could be the one, he could be the sleeping giant that nobody's thinking of. I keep saying it, been saying it the past couple days, Gil.
32:33
You find Xander mid-20s, you wanna, you wanna bet him, I have no problems with that because he could absolutely l- come back and look like he did last summer where he looked like one of the best golfers in the w- world winning two majors.
32:44
Bryson DeChambeau, I think there's gonna be a lot of excitement for him. I actually think he's one of the guys I have less questions about.
32:52
We have seen him win a major in the past year, but he hasn't performed as well as some of the other guys on, on the Liv Tour this year.
32:59
Ludv- Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, I will group all three together. All three of these guys could win this tournament.
33:06
They are three of the top, absolutely top 10, probably top five players, uh, no, top 10 players on the PGA Tour. All of, Aberg and H- Matsuyama have both won this year.
33:17
All three of them, though, have not put together any consistent stretches of multiple weeks. And then Brooks Koepka is, is not Brooks Koepka right now. So yeah, you can poke holes in all those. All right.
33:28
What Kelly did at bet, his entire card. Can we finally do that, your entire card? Entire card, yeah. On the other side, some NBA dra- uh, some NFL draft stuff as well. We'll get to that.
33:38
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
I thought Fezick was gonna be mad at me for me slamming him earlier. He goes, "Text by text, nice shirt." [laughs] Thank you, Stevie. Want to know where the money's really going?
34:01
Unlike other sources, our betting splits come straight from Circa and DraftKings sportsbooks, giving you insight into where the sharp action is landing.
34:07
Circa known for taking big bets from pro bettors, while DraftKings provides a broader market perspective. That means you're getting the real action, not just public money, but the kind of wagers that move lines.
34:16
See the percentage of bets versus percentage of handle on every game across every major sport, helping make you a smarter bettor, more informed bets as well.
34:24
Get VSiN's summer special right now for only $59 until August 1st at vsin.com/subscribe. Flip bets. Oh man, that's been a long time since you've done that. I was thinking about that the other day.
34:36
I was like, "I gotta do that. I don't even think I've done that in the studio yet." Wow. That's absolutely right. We gotta, we gotta bring that back. Uh, we get, do we get tweets at Beating The Book?
34:44
We do get tweets at Beating The Book. Torch- Probably, probably gave Darnell a heart attack. [laughs] Torch D, the one who put a satin on your panties. He said, "Did you see Ja's grenade last night?" Yes.
34:54
What is he doing? Did you see, did you see Jalen Wells making- Oh, yeah... that was scary. Oh my gosh. That was very scary. [horn blaring] Not yet, guys. Not, not yet. Not yet. Not yet. I know it's me.
35:07
I know you're very anxious. Just gotta get through the tweets. [laughs] Chad Lee, "JBT joining the ranks with The Bear and Dr. Bob with the potty mouth this morning." It wasn't really qualified as a potty mouth.
35:16
Oh, yeah, no, that's fine. Yeah, that's completely fine. It's just that he said year of Lord, and then he threw out that word. I, I- You know... I do chuckle. He uses it often.
35:22
I do chuckle e- anytime you s- you say the year of our Lord, 2025. Yeah. It's comical, sorry. 3JackH3131, "Another ga- another day goes by and the Numbers Game increases its bougieness."
35:33
Yeah, we're getting, we're getting insufferable. He says- Why? Just 'cause we wanna tra- go take a train around Europe to do the show? [laughs] He says- What are you talking about?
35:40
He says, "Now we're riding in train cars and sipping martinis on our way to Monte Carlo. Just remember to book a slip for your yacht and hold those pinky fingers high."
35:47
[laughs] That's a good point about the, the slip for the yacht. I'm not a martini guy. Not a martini guy. I would hate to own a boat. Just have your friend own a boat. You, you, you, you find friends that have boats.
35:58
That's right. You don't buy boats. Cheap prop bets. Durant likely to tweet at you from a burner account for your comments. How dare you question him?
36:04
And Jack in a Prius 2.0, "Yo, I wasn't gonna bring it up 'cause the pain is still so fresh and raw, but since you did, I actually had the Stars minus a goal in that-" In a game last night.
36:14
By the way, Zalla Torres is my Masters pick. And, uh, Jason, uh, Weingarten has just retweeted the show schedule, so we know he will be here later. [laughs] That's news for me and Kelly. We thank you.
36:24
That wasn't for you guys. That was for us. Uh, Dan Groeschel, "How about the Guardian Sox game yesterday? Nada portos, then a walk-off walk in the ninth, extending.
36:34
Unrelated, how soon is too soon to pay attention to a certain streak happening for a certain Chicago team named for a piece of clothing?" Oh, man, speaking in riddles now.
36:43
I think he's talking about the Sox and not the Cubs. That's correct. [laughs] [clears throat] Uh, and Jim Fouch, "Would you use Wess Reynolds' approach to construct DFS rosters for the Masters?"
36:56
I'll, I'll cede that one to you, sir. "Would you use Wess Reynolds' approach to construct DFS rosters for the Masters?"
37:02
I guess, I guess I'm, I'm going to read into that a little bit and assume you're talking about some of the stat modeling that we do, and absolutely I would. I would say yes. Yeah, absolutely- Yeah...
37:10
it applies the same way.
37:11
There is, uh, I, i- if you live in states, I, I mean, frankly, I haven't g- I haven't gotten into golf DFS at all because I could not play golf DF, uh, I could not play DFS of any kind here in Nevada.
37:22
Um, if you're a golf bettor out there, though, most, most golf bettors that, that I know, Gil, that do not live in Nevada, yes, they absolutely play DFS along with betting golf weekly. Uh, White Sox, by the way, Andrew.
37:33
And, and a lot of that, a lot of that is because you can find, what you often find is some of what the salaries are for DFS for golfers will be off from what the betting odds are. Yeah.
37:43
So you can find value, just like you're finding value in outright market prices, you can find value in some of the DFS numbers. You know who's a big DFS golf guy? Todd Wright, our buddy. Makes sense. Yeah.
37:53
White Sox have lost six in a row, by the way, just to, uh, clarify. Uh, okay, now, time to go country clubbing for the Masters. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah. Good vizzy. I forgot about this guy.
38:05
It's actually, uh, you think Hootie used to jam this, used to rock this in his office? I, I'm, I'm really much appreciating the crew back there now. Have you seen this? Oh, wow. Wyatt's up and down. Look at that.
38:16
Savannah's waving the phone. [laughs] Look, Rob back there. There we go. Oh, wow. Uh, I don't wanna, I don't wanna hear all this music in the Butler cabinet ever again.
38:24
[laughs] I know we don't have a Max Homa problem this year, but my, we might have a Daniel Berger problem. Let's take care of that real quick. All right, let's hear everything you bet. Let's hear it all.
38:35
You went crazy, didn't you? I had someone, uh, ripping me on, uh, Twitter for one of my bets. [laughs] Having to do with Max Homa. Max Homa in such, such bad form right now.
38:45
I lo- I love the guy, but it is, he is an easy target. Someone go, someone tweets me, "Did you really lay -118 with Zach Johnson in a matchup over Max Homa?" Yes, I did. [laughs] Yes, I did. You did.
38:56
Max Homa's a disaster right now. But- They started this up...
38:59
the most egregious aggressive bet you made, I'll be just tip, uh, again, for p- people who missed it yesterday or missed the podcast, you are picking on Bernard Langer in a matchup also. Yeah, yeah.
39:08
The, I might as well- Yeah... get those two out of the way- Yeah... 'cause they're the kinda, uh, d- kinda, well, actually I have a ton of tournament matchups.
39:14
This isn't a tournament matchup, it's top German, uh, in the Masters. Yeah. Steven Yeag- there's only two of them, so it's basically a tournament matchup.
39:21
Uh, I played Steven Yeager and I laid -325 over Bernard Langer, yes. I, can I tell you something? I hope Bernard Langer gives you a scare. I don't want you to lose, but I hope he scares you. Uh, I, he has before.
39:33
Picking on an old man. He also, he also had an emotional, uh, press conference yesterday, 'cause this is, will, will be his final year. This will be his final Masters. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
39:41
So this is- And that's the thing about the Masters, again, just to be serious for a second, you have a, you have a short f- you know, a small field to begin with, right? 95, I believe, is the current number.
39:50
Yes, 95, yeah. 95, and then you have about 20 dudes, 15 to 20 guys, the Jose Maria Olazabals of the world, who have no shot whatsoever of winning this tournament. Right.
40:00
So it becomes this really small tournament where almost everyone will make the cut, uh, oftentimes as well. A, a lot of the main contenders. A lot of the main contenders. Yeah. And so, yeah. You still have to cut at 50.
40:11
It's just a different, it's just a different animal. Anyway, go ahead. Yeah, it really is. Um, probably don't have time for it now, but I had a really funny interview with Bernard Langer one time. Oh, wow.
40:20
He's just, okay, real quick. He's just, uh, uh, it was at a Champions Tour event, was able to grab him, did that whole like, like, "There's Bernard Langer, let me grab him for an interview, see if he'll do one quick."
40:29
He was very okay doing the interview. I just have a feeling this is him kind of being German, but it was, like, him very okay doing the interview.
40:36
He looked miserable throughout the entire time, and then wanted to talk with me after for, like, fi- 10 more minutes. Oh, nice.
40:42
Was, like, the nicest guy ever, but he looked miserable the entire time I was talking to him. But he felt the, the joy of Kelly Biddle. That's right, he felt the joy. Yeah. He felt the joy.
40:50
All right, outrights for the Masters. I am in on Rory. I got him at plus 735. I think it ends now. The Grand Slam, career Grand Slam drought, we fi- it's finally over, Gil.
41:03
Rory gets home, he slips on the green jacket on Sunday. He's a happy guy, I'm a happy guy, a lot of bettors are happy people. Uh, look, I- This is his 11th try. 11th try.
41:12
He, he is, he is coming into this tournament in better form than he has in any of those others for his tr- uh, attempt to c- uh, close this out. So really do like Rory this week.
41:21
I think that pricing between him and Scheffler should be a lot tighter than it is. Uh, they are definitely the top two guys, though, in this field.
41:28
Well, not, this is no disrespect or, or shade or anything for, uh, against Scottie Scheffler. I think he can still, and probably still will have a great Masters.
41:36
The way I would describe it, Gil, is I think Scottie Scheffler probably has a higher floor this week.
41:41
Rory McIlroy has the higher ceiling, and I'm gonna bet on that with the chance for him to complete the career Grand Slam.
41:45
So, uh, Rory in the outright market, also covering him with the top five, and then Shane Lowry was the only other outright that I did add this week, covering him with a top 10, uh, in that market, 45 to one.
41:57
I still saw 45 to ones out there yesterday on Shane Lowry. Um, really like what he's doing with his iron play right now.
42:04
If it, it's, it, it, around the green play is gonna be, proba- be go- going to become important at some point this week. It always does during the Masters.
42:11
He's one of the better, better guys out there when it comes to scrambling and around the green. Really like his ability to, to show up big this week at Augusta.
42:19
Uh, other outrights I bet earlier in the season, Akshai Bhatia at 90 to 1, Sepp Straka at 100 to 1. Uh, Gil, I know you're in on Sepp. I would absolutely bet Sepp at current price, too. I think it's around 70 to 1.
42:30
Um, I think he's a good bet at current price. I added on, uh, top five and top 20s on Sepp Straka, so I- Ooh, I went top 10. Interesting that you, you did the other two. Yeah.
42:40
Yeah, I, like, did it for a little bit of the top five to cover my outright and then went heavier on the top 20s. Um, so yeah, top 20s, plus 160, plus 180.
42:48
Was waiting for Circa to post prices, so I did add a couple of these bets, um, last night. Welcome Las Vegas sportsbooks to the Masters. [laughs] That's right.
42:55
Uh, Collin Morikawa, one of my bigger bets is Collin Morikawa this week, just in the top 10 market, though. I'm not betting him anywhere else.
43:01
Uh, do, I think I, there are trust issues with Collin right now and whether he can close out these big tournaments.
43:07
However, history at the Masters, history in majors, how well he's done this year, he check, he checks all the boxes this week. Wouldn't be a surprise if he wins. I'm just gonna play him in the top 10 market, though.
43:17
Couple other top 20s that I really like. Robert McIntyre has played really well this y- uh, this year on tour. We always talk about lefties and, and how their game should set up well at Augusta.
43:28
Uh, I think Bobby Mac could have a big week. He's a guy, uh, that I bet multiple times in the top 20 market.
43:34
Another guy I bet pretty heavily in top 20 market, I have no interest in outright bets on this guy, uh, Corey Conners. Uh, plus 160, he has played some incredible golf here of recent.
43:44
Last four, three tournaments, T18, T8, T6, and third the last four tournaments. Uh, all top 20 finishes for Corey Conners. The irons are really heating up.
43:54
His scrambling and around the green play, which has not really been his strongest suit, he's actually been very, very good with, um, so far. Let's see. Uh, I'm gonna run through everything else really quick.
44:06
Tournament matchups. Berger over Tur- Tony Finau. These are kind of all n- uh, number plays for me.
44:10
Berger over Burns, Schauffele over Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas over Patrick Cantlay, Spieth over Koepka, Keegan over Aaron Rai, Zach Johnson over Max Homa. I have some first round leaders too, Bill.
44:22
First round leaders on the other side. Yeah. Uh, among our guests in the second hour, Sia Nejad, known for his first round leader bets as well. We'll do that and more Numbers Game. Peace.
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