Transcript 0:00 [upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they don't lie. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 0:17 Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Yo. 0:27 Who you can fo- who you can follow on Twitter @KellyBidlon. I don't know why he spells it that way, he just does. Uh, we got tweets beating the book. Joey Kiska, "Oberlin College of Ohio is the Yeomen. 0:39 John Heisman first coached there." I don't know what he means by that. Is the Yeomen? Uh, that must be their nicknames. By the way, I visited Oberlin, uh, as a youngster. Yeah, where's that again? In Ohio. Oberlin, Ohio. 0:51 Just outsta- about one hour out of Cl- outside of Cleveland, something like that. Um, everyone was just so nice. That's all I remember. Mm-hmm. Just everybody was so nice there. Mm-hmm. 0:59 Brian M., "Yeomen's work not from an acceptable statistical era," he says. [laughs] That's right. That's right. And then Scott, where I can't even read your thing. I'm not reading that, Scott, 'cause it's not nice 1:13 about somebody. I'm not reading it. Also got a, uh, I got one separate that yeoman is a clerical position. Hmm. Okay. Yeah. Yeoman's effort, not to be confused with a human's effort. That's right. 1:24 Which, again, you can find on the website where he goes through all the quarterback depth charts. VSiN.com for human's efforts. See what I did right there? Mm-hmm. 1:31 Uh, before we get to MLB most wins and, and fewest wins, I teased this earlier [laughs] 'cause something's wrong with me. I decided because past the preseason now, the first game of the season is on Wednesday, right? 1:42 It's a Wednesday Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and the Patriots, regular season. The next night, our time Pacific, Thursday night, but Friday morning Melbourne time, is the game between the Niners and the Rams. 1:58 And please, aside to an aside, please I don't wanna hear anybody say Melbourne like the Australians pronounce it, 'cause I don't wanna get in an argument with you like I did with Ron Flatter, 2:07 who I- Who, what was this again? Who I used, I used to refer to him- Melbourne. I used to refer to as our adult supervision here at the network. Whenever I said Melbourne, he goes, "It's Melbourne, Gil." 2:15 [laughs] I go, "No, no, that's how the Australians pronounce it." He goes, "It's Melbourne, and you sound dumb saying Melbourne." I'm like, "What did you say? Do you say Guadalajara?" Uh, yeah. Yep. 2:24 Do you, do you say Yerushalayim? Danny just remind me to work that in every time possible now. By the way- Melbourne. One more side- I'm gonna really lean into it now... one more side note. 2:34 Flatter, who by the way, every once in a while, this is you and me talking, right? Nobody's listening. Yeah. 2:39 Once, every once in a while I text Flatter, like every six months just to check in on him, how he's doing, you know, how, to see how he's doing. You know what he, uh, you know what his thing is now? 2:47 He's like, "Real friends pick up the phone and call." [laughs] You, you did tell me this a few weeks ago. [laughs] So, so Flatter is mad at me, the only guy I'm sure texting him. Stop trying to stay in touch with him. 3:01 He's mad at me. He, he's like the, uh, you ever see like a Bernie Sanders thing where like the ultra left wingers go up on stage and interrupt his speeches- Yeah... 'cause they don't think he's left enough? 3:13 That's how I feel with Flatter. In this analogy, I'm Bernie Sanders. Yeah. If, if- He's the, he's the far left... if you're gonna try to stay in touch with Ron Flatter, pick up the phone, okay? Oh, he's so mad at me. 3:21 Anyway, back to the- Something to chew on... back to the story. What was I talking about? Oh, yeah. 3:23 So Rams and Niners, then Melbourne time Friday morning, which is actually Pacific time here, and I'll use the Pacific Time Zone because the Niners and Rams are obviously teams in the Pacific Time Zone. 3:35 How are they approaching the travel? And so I thought to myself, self, 3:39 can we glean anything betting wise from the history of the international games in terms of teams deciding to arrive early for an international game versus teams that decide to arrive late? 3:51 And I threw out, again, I threw out the Brazil and the Mexico games. I don't want these time zones here, close time zones. I just isolated the London games, regardless of stadium, Ireland and Germany, right? Okay. 4:06 All of the Europe games. I know it's not Australia, but it gives us some sense. So I went through all of these games, and a lot of times, Kelly, this is a big project. 4:14 A lot of these times the teams arrived on the same day. Mm-hmm. So you have to throw those out. Yep. So here's what I found, and this was a long way to get to this. 4:22 [laughs] Remember just, remember how big of a deal this was though at the be- when they first started- Well... doing international games? Well, maybe this is still a deal. I'll let you decide. 4:29 So there are a grand total of, and now I can't find it, a grand total of, um, 26 games that qualified. Okay. 4:40 The team that arrived earlier in the week versus the team that arrived later in the week, and by earlier and later, I just mean minimum one game before, but those were only a couple of them. 4:50 Usually it's like three or four days difference. 14 and 12 straight up in favor of the teams that arrived earlier, so very right down the middle. Didn't matter at all to the outcome. 5:01 And again, just the, this is European games- This is just the European games... right? Played s- since the beginning. Since the beginning. Since we started doing international. 5:07 Since like 20 thir- since 2010 I believe we started the international season. 2009. Well, maybe it was 2007, something like that. I went all the way back to the beginning of it. 5:17 Um, matter of fact, since you asked the question, let me tell you the exact answer. Yes, 2007 was the first international game. Where were you the first time the Jaguars played in London? 5:26 [laughs] Against the spread in those 26 games that qualify, the earlier team is 17 and 9- Oh... against the spread. All right. 5:39 The team that arrived ear- now keep in mind again, for all these, I had to figure out for all these when they arrived, what the spread was- Spread, yeah... and all that stuff, right? 5:48 Now, the issue though is before you jump to bet... Okay, and by the way, for this game, I probably should've led with this, the Niners are going like a week early and the Rams are going right before the game. 6:01 Like this is a stark difference to Melbourne, to Australia. 6:06 So before you rush to bet the Niners, and by the way, the spread is the Rams minus three and a half, just know the history of these two teams, which is that the Niners have only played in two international games. 6:15 It was way back when, one in 2010, one in 2013. They went early in the week for both, and they won and covered in both of those. Ancient history, but still that's that franchise's history in these games. 6:25 And the Rams have played four international games. The first two that they played, they went early in the week. They lost both of them, and then they decided, "Let's try this differently. Let's go late." 6:38 And guess what happened? They won both of them and covered in both of them. 6:43 So the r- so both of these franchises are dug in to the extent that you can be dug in with that short of a sample size, but they have, they believe in these philosophies. Right. The Rams are going to do this, Kelly. 6:55 The Rams are gonna leave, so now remember the game Pacific time is Thursday night. The Rams are leaving LA Wednesday morning our time at 5:00 AM. That will have them arriving in Melbourne at 9:00 PM Wednesday. 7:13 Oh, excuse me, 9:00 PM our time, if you will. Yeah. Yeah, okay. 9:00 PM our time. Yeah. Pardon, not Melbourne time. 9:00 PM our time, Pacific Time Zone. So let's say they go to bed by 11:00 PM, midnight. 7:24 Breakfast, 8:00 AM, whatever. Game time, our time, 5:35 PM. So they are, the Rams are essentially saying, "Jet lag, schmet lag." That wasn't a good rhyme. 7:37 "We are just going to act like we are not leaving for the Pacific Time Zone." Yeah, right. "We are powering through it." The Niners are saying, "No, no, no, no, no. 7:46 We are acclimating to the climate," I mean, to the time zone, "a week in advance. That's how we choose to play it." So anyway, that was, that was... 7:53 I don't know that there's any definitive result from that, but those are the philosophies of how you're playing it. And let me just say this. I, I've never been to Australia, 8:01 but I went to Korea, if you remember, a few years ago. Me and, uh, Debra Song, fashion stylist, went to Korea- Mm-hmm... to visit the great Gracie, and I didn't... We were jet lagged on the way there kind of. 8:15 I mean, somewhat for sure. But you know where it really affected us? On the way back. It took, like, two weeks for me to get my sleep right on the way back. So to me, for me, having that personal experience, 8:32 I think the Niners' real effect is going to be the game after this. I think they're gonna have real trouble reacclimating to the Pacific Time Zone for their subsequent football game. 8:44 And I actually think, Kelly, I actually think the Rams are playing this correctly. Going late. Just- Yeah... act like you're, uh, "We are not going to be in Australia. This is not, we are not..." 8:56 You know, just tell yourself, "We're gonna power through this. We'll be back in LA right on the same time schedule." 9:03 And what- whatever happens in this game between the Niners and Rams, the real effect to me is I think the Rams benefit in the subsequent game because they will not have 9:14 acclimated to Australia time, whereas I think the Niners will suffer in the subsequent game from that decision in this one. Yeah, I think it makes sense. Man, I really wish they didn't do these on week one. 9:27 Like, the, you know, you- But, but if you're going to Australia, that's the only time you can do Australia. I know. I... It's just, well, just don't go to Australia. Like, that is... 9:34 Where, where do we see, like, didn't we see, we saw Brazil week one, right, the past couple years, or maybe one of the years. Uh, Packers-Eagles last year, I believe, right? Um, like, that one I kinda don't mind, right? 9:45 You're not, you're not even going crazy with the time zones. It's still a lot of travel, but you're not going crazy with the time zones. 9:50 Like, the European trips, yeah, like, you kind of make it work into, like, a couple weeks, right? You, you, it's go there and you get your bye. You have the option of getting your bye at least. 9:59 Those make sense to me more middle of the season. This is week one because of exactly what you're talking about. Yeah, you can't, you can't schedule a game in Melbourne week seven. No, I know, but, like, you're screw... 10:08 Like- Yeah... like, like, I, I agree with you. Like, there's a chance these teams are screwed up, and maybe one more so- Oh... than the other, that for a couple weeks at the beginning of the season. 10:15 I think, I think in the case of the Niners, they will be. One other preseason game on the move. I can't really tell you why, though. 10:22 Uh, New Orleans Saints have moved to the favorite on Thursday night against the Jaguars. That was Jags one and a half early this morning. It is now Saints one and a half pretty much everywhere. Okay. Um- 10:34 That was good stuff, man. I, I mean, I can't, can't even imagine the sprea- like- Well-... spreads would've been annoying- But you could-... but you could've found those... the, the Googling of who arrived first. 10:45 I was gonna say, that part would've been the, by far the toughest, right? Yeah, 'cause some were easier to find than o- I mean- Yeah, yeah, yeah... 10:51 some, some of them were, were known, but others were, you know, it took a, it took, took some digging. And in the end, what, what were really the results? 10:58 14 and 12 straight up for the early teams, 17 and nine against the spread for the early teams. I don't know if that's a significant enough sample size. I don't know if you can glean anything from it. 11:09 But as it pertains to this game, they've never been to Australia before. This is, this is completely new horizons, right, where it's just like this is a completely different philosophical approach to travel. 11:21 And oh, by the way, one last note. The Rams actually sent some of their team officials already on a trip to Australia. 11:32 They flew from LA to Melbourne and back, tracking when and how much they felt the effects of the jet lag, and they came to the conclusion that the best way to handle it would be to prepare at home, fly as close to the game as possible, let adrenaline carry them through the game, and then fly right home and rest up on the back end. 11:48 So they actually- That's hilarious... did a test of this already. Their week two game is Monday night at home against the Giants. Like I said, I think it will be a bad decision subsequently for the Niners. Coming back. 12:00 You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. 12:06 Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use. 12:14 No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. 12:33 [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Don't forget about our VSiN Pro intro offer. 12:45 You can sign up now for as little as $9.99. That is nine dollars and 99 cents. Daily best bets, exclusive betting splits, full access to tools and data. All you have to do is go to vsin.com/subscribe. 12:58 That's vsin.com/subscribe. 13:01 Uh, remember, you sign up for VSiN Pro today, you get both our NFL and college football betting guides packed with team previews, power ratings, proven betting systems, and best bets from VSiN's sharpest minds to help you bet football smarter all season long. 13:12 Start today for just $9.99. You get a full year and save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe today. Do it now. Why today? Do it now. The, what's the harm? Mm-hmm. 13:24 Uh, this is from, let's see, we get tweets on, on, uh, Beating the Book. Uh, 13:29 Montreal Max, "Great having you back, Gil, and after being out last night here watching my girl Belinda Bencic play Alex Eala, with the crowd 95% cheering on Eala, it was nice for Belinda to give a shout to us and that crowd yelling out, 'Belinda,' multiple times." 13:43 Um, what he's referring to is, and I've talked about this before, Alexandra Eala is the gr- is maybe the greatest thing to happen to women's tennis, in my opinion, in the last few years, because she has unlocked not only a massive Filipina tennis-loving audience, but also young people drawn to women's tennis. 14:03 And it is just this unbelievable rockstar kind of thing. She won her first 500 in DC, beating Jessie Pegula in the finals, uh, last week. Love that. 14:12 And, uh, Montreal Max was at the, was apparently at the tournament, uh, in Toronto, and, uh, Belinda Bencic, uh, shouting out those that actually dared root for B- Bencic. We had Bencic last night, uh, for subscribers. 14:24 Chris of St. Barts, "Fire any CFB futures yet?" I have not. You, Kelly? Have you done any college football futures yet? That is a great question, Gil. Yeah. Do I? 'Cause if I have, I don't remember. Uh, no, I have not. 14:35 I have not. Hmm. Colin Murphy. Let's see what Wes Reynolds has coming up. Colin Murphy, "Welcome back, Gil, Kelly. 14:40 I always thought a yeoman's, a fast food connoisseur, loves playing golf in extreme heat, night owl who hates broccoli." [laughs] Ah, you've r- we're onto our joke. 14:49 Uh, 3JackH3131, 3Jack, "Welcome back, Gil, Kelly, and friends. Did an amazing job holding the fort down while you were out. Now let's talk Survivor. Talk me out of taking the Raiders in week one." 14:57 Oh, we gotta do our Survivor segment. Survivor tenants, maybe we'll do that tomorrow or the next day. Yeah, we've got, uh- Okay... Cleve T.A. will be on the show tomorrow. Cleve T.A. tomorrow, baby. 15:06 I think that's gonna lead us into some Survivor talk, so yeah, I think we'll do that tomorrow. Yeah. Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panties, he said, "Rams got it right. 15:14 Minimize the chances of running into a poisonous snake. Australia's terrifying." Oh, God, yeah, that too. [laughs] Uh, Michael H., "BBC article on their app right now says that jet lag is worse going east than west." 15:26 Uh, I'm telling you, man, I don't agr- I don't agree with that. I'm one of those people, by the way, who feel like I never get jet lag until that time I get jet lagged. 15:33 Oh, no, maybe he, maybe I do agree with that because when I came back this way, it was just impossible to re-acclimate. Yeah. Um, Gordon Dye, "Big mistake by the Rams." He says, "Just got back from the Philippines. 15:43 The jet lag and time zone difference is real. I haven't solved it yet, even after several visits. Forget about a good night's sleep when you arrive." 15:49 Brian M., "The Niners are in trouble week two at home against," checks notes, "Miami. Never mind." [laughs] "Week two, week two, bye for the Niners." Yeah. Uh, that's true. Oh, good. There is that to consider. 16:00 That was good. Primetime Leon Sanders, "Yo, man," that doesn't, but the spread is, is where that will matter. [laughs] "Yo, man, kudos to, uh, Country Club and K. 16:08 Michael Billand for efforting and delivering on some great NFL guests while you were all, while, while you were away slacking. All of America, including Dave Ross, and thankful to Kelly. 16:16 Maybe Aikman or Gil's favorite color guy Romo could join the show. He's available." Oh, did you have a ex-Cowboy on the show? 16:21 Oh, that was, first of all, all, all credit to Dustin, but yeah, we had on Friday, on Friday, Bobby Carpenter, okay, Ohio, famous Ohio State running back, uh, r- running back, linebacker. Yes, yes. 16:31 Former Washington Capital Bobby Carpenter on. [laughs] Who also ended up playing for the Dallas Cowboys, you remember, for a- Ah, yes... for a while, right? Yes, uh-huh. 16:39 And then one segment after him, Daryl Moose Johnson. So I was like, I was like- Ah... "Dustin, we gotta get, like, Aikman or Emmitt and just, like-" Sully, sully the show some more. That's right. 16:47 I was like, "We gotta get one more and just, like, really run the..." Like, d- of course, Dave Ross was losing it. He was, he was not having it. Uh, we have a, we have a million, uh, time zone tweets to get to. 16:56 We will get to them, but Wes Reynolds is kind enough to join us as he does each and every Monday, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @WesReynolds1. That's the number one. 17:05 Wes, good morning to you, sir. Good morning. Are you guys saying that Tony Romo is going to be available soon- [laughs] He might Yes... to, uh, appear on a Numbers Game? I think he might be, yeah. 17:15 What is, what is your instinct on that, Tony? Uh, Tony. Wes. 17:18 [laughs] Not to, not to, uh, get too inside broadcasting, but if you had to bet on such a thing, if you were a betting man, you think Romo is back on, uh, on the broadcast this year or no? 17:29 Man, that's about 50/50 because they do have somebody in the pipeline. Of course, they're at CBS. They have J.J. Watt- Mm-hmm... who is on the, uh, number two team with, with, uh, the great Ian Eagle. 17:40 Uh, so they have somebody, uh, I, I think, ready to go if, if, if they need to do that. 17:46 And, and, and we see these personnel changes all the time, the guys that go into the studio, that go into the booth, and I thought J.J. Watt did a really nice job of that last year in the games that I watched. 17:57 Because look, we're usually watching Red Zone or maybe you're paying attention to one game, but of the games I watched, I thought J.J. 18:03 Watt was actually excellent, and, you know, he seems to be a likable guy, and obviously very popular and soon to be a Hall of Famer. 18:11 So they have somebody ready to go if, uh, if, uh, Tony Romo, uh, and CBS don't work it out. Do you have a NFL 18:20 thought or bet or just a, just an overall opinion on something that you feel is, uh, counter to conventional wisdom, Wes? 18:28 That you believe this off-season, that you haven't heard many others sort of be on board with, or is there one being bandied about that you just can't get with, that you've heard a lot? 18:38 Well, uh, I'll go to the NFC, uh, and in terms of the NFC South, which is kind of like Wheel of Fortune, I think, you know, where it stops is who you pick to win the division, because I don't think you have really one standout team. 18:51 So I think it might be Carolina again. Uh, I, I just, I look at everybody and there's questions there. New Orleans is a clear rebuild, I think, with a second-year staff and, and a young quarterback. 19:03 I still think that they're rebuilding. So I don't wanna say that they can't win it, but they're probably the least likely. Atlanta, who's gonna play quarterback? Is it gonna be Michael Pettus Jr.? Is it gonna be Tua? 19:15 You know, so it kinda feels like they're unsure of themselves. And then Tampa Bay, you wonder if they've kinda hit their peak a little bit. Like, they've, they're get- they're an older roster- Yeah... 19:24 even though Baker has improved his numbers both years. So as much as I'm not a believer, really a true believer in Bryce Young, he has shown some progress, but I think that there's a ceiling there with him. 19:36 I still think it might be Carolina again, kind of by default in that division. Every time Bryce Young comes up on this show, I am contractually obligated to say, "Kelly, what do you think about Bryce Young?" 19:46 I got no idea. [laughs] I got no idea, Gil. [laughs] He's small, that's what I know. I don't know if he's good. And I know that. I don't know if he's bad. I like betting against him, though. 19:54 Jury's still out on Bryce Young, Wes, according to Kelly. Um, okay, what about the, uh, the tweet that we just had earlier? 'Cause Kelly and I balked at it, which is, "Do you have any college football futures?" 20:03 And I said I would ask you, do you have any college football futures? A few, and then I'm kinda looking at the season win total markets, 'cause there's still some variance out there. 20:11 It's gonna get tighter as we get closer and closer to the season, where you can lay some heavier juice on a bigger number, like if you like an under, under five and a half, instead of, you know, playing under four and a half. 20:21 But I have a few. Uh, uh, one I do like, because it's like, okay, how is this playoff gonna shake out? Is it gonna be very similar to last year? 20:29 And it probably is with all the big conferences dominating, where you have 12 spots. 20:34 Say Notre Dame is gonna make it, 'cause I think that they probably are this year, and then you have a G6, you have an ACC champ and a Big 12 champ. 20:42 So that leaves you four Big 10 teams and four SEC teams more than likely taking eight of the 12 spots. 20:48 So if you look at the top three in the Big 10, the consensus top three in whatever order you look at is Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon. At some point, Indiana certainly has the schedule again to win 10, 11 games. 21:00 So who's gonna be that fourth team? The second tier, there's probably three candidates. There's Michigan, there's USC, and there's Penn State. 21:09 I think it might be Penn State, and I took them plus 450 to make the college football playoff. Hmm. Even though you look, it's a whole new team, right? James Franklin got fired mid-season. 21:19 They end up with Matt Campbell from Iowa State, who was not the first choice for the job, and he brings in 24 guys with him from Iowa State, and I think 40 overall transfers and most of his staff. 21:32 The schedule for Penn State, they avoid the big three guys. Like, they don't play Ohio State, they don't play Oregon, they don't play Indiana. 21:39 They do have to go to Michigan, but Michigan's got a first-year head coach in Cal Whittingham, so they've got plenty of transitions. 21:46 So I thought Penn State with an experienced group that went 11 and 2 at Iowa State, by the way, went to the Big 12 title game. 21:53 Assuming Rocco Becht is healthy, and I think he's gonna be, even though he got held out for the spring and just did seven on seven with that labrum surgery in the off-season, I think Penn State is a team that you certainly wanna look at. 22:05 They don't really dazzle you right away, but that schedule is just, uh, no real challenges in the non-conference, and you get kind of the back end of the league in terms of, uh, the layout of it. 22:16 Wasn't gonna ask about them, but since you alluded to them, Indiana, your Hoosiers, 'cause you went there, defending national champions, but obviously the NFL came calling. 22:25 But you legitimately think, and, and the betting market, by the way, they're the sixth shot to win the whole thing again, at nine to one here pre-flop. 22:32 You think even post Mendoza here and others, that they, because of that schedule, legitimately will get to the playoff and then I guess have a fighting chance at that point. I do, Gil. 22:43 And, and I think, uh, with, it, there's just roster continuity there, and I'm not gonna doubt Curt Signette, who's now 27 and two- Yeah, I wouldn't either... in two years, uh, there in Bloomington. 22:53 And you have Josh Hoover coming in from TCU, who is certainly a productive quarterback. Gotta get the turnovers down. Might have the best offensive line in college football with all the starters back, and defensive line. 23:04 They got two guys that were starters last year that they thought were gonna be out of eligibility, and now Stephen Daly and Kellen Wyatt are back. I think it's another good run for Indiana. 23:13 Curt Signette's building a monster there. I don't know. They got Howard week two, though. Watch out. That's al- that's always tough, Howard. Um, love Howard University, especially on a Friday afternoon. 23:23 More with Wes, baseball and golf next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 23:38 20 leagues, one mission, Just Win Bets, Baby is your premier source for daily sports betting picks. They break down the data so you can bet with confidence across the entire sports calendar. 23:46 Scan the QR code or visit justwinbetsbaby.com today and start betting smarter with Just Win Bets, Baby. The name says it all. Tweets @BeatingTheBook. Joe C, our buddy Joe C, JoeC714. 24:00 He said, "Having traveled a lot in the military," this goes back to our discussion, in case you missed, about the Niners-Rams game in Australia and the different ways that both teams are handling it. 24:08 Niners going hella early, to use the Bay Area term, Rams going late. 24:13 JoeC714 said, "Having traveled a lot in the military from Europe to the States, they told us the true time to re-acclimate to the local time zone is the days that correlate to the hours and time difference." 24:23 So in other words, 12-hour difference, 12 days. So he's on the Niners side of things. Chris Hartman, "Gil, Carbone Riviera, what an experience. The Yellowfin and spicy rigatoni vodka are worth it alone." 24:35 Well, spicy rigatoni vodka is a staple of the Carbone classic. Yeah, see I'm a little scared for the first time I go there that I'm just gonna end up ordering all the Carbone classics Well, they do a lot of the... 24:45 You can get the, uh, the pasta AOP at the, uh, Carbone classic, but they do it with crab at Riviera. Oh. Ooh, my God. All right. Yeah, I'm getting, I'm getting that one. Oh, [laughs] my God. 24:55 I'm getting that one for sure. Tried to go there on Friday night. Do you like people who do... You like people- Couldn't get in. Oh, you just thought you'd roll up in there? Yeah, you know, we called. 25:01 We made a couple calls. Matt Brown made a couple calls. We ended up over at, uh, at Oscar's. Oh. Myself, Matt Brown, Drew Dincic, Andy Molitor. Did you get the burger? Did you get the burger? I did not. 25:09 I got a, uh, steak. It was pretty good. Rookie move. Go with that. Pretty good. Go with the burger. But hey, good times. Good times. Good times were had with good people. That's right. 25:18 David Jed is gonna have a great table. Drew Dincic, Matt Brown, Andy Molitor. Mm-hmm. And you, Kelly Bidlin. David Chalifour, "Yo, welcome back. 25:26 So you said that we're so nice in Ohio, but end up in Boston where you f- [laughs] where you find us Mass blanks." [laughs] "180 degree d- 180 degree difference. Let's go football." David, I'd like to disagree, but yes. 25:38 Yeah, pretty much. Yeah. Justin D, "49ers minus 10 and a half at home against the Dolphins. Dolphins four to one money line. Smells like a Marco hold your nose special." 25:49 Yeah, I'm not saying they're beating the Dolphins, but that spread based on t- uh, re-acclimation to time zone seems pretty tempting, especially 'cause the Dol- who the Dolphins play week one? 25:58 They'll probably get hammered. Justin G, "So what you're saying is take the Dolphins week two in survivor?" I did not say that. [laughs] K- KJ, Dr. Actor KJ. He said, "Gil, there are, there are zero poisonous snakes. 26:13 There are, however, plenty that are venomous. #biologynerd." Ooh. Oh. I was- It was- First of all, I was just reading the tweet. Who was that? That wasn't me. Who was that? KJ, uh, Dr. Actor KJ. 26:24 Oh, KJ just went full altitude elevation on us. He's a s- he said he's a self-proclaimed biology nerd. He says venomous snakes, not poisonous snakes. Thank you, KJ. Appreciate that. Let's get that straight. Now you know. 26:37 Wes Reynolds. Now you know. Wes Reynolds, @wesreynolds1 on Twitter with us once again. Uh, Wes, venomous, not poisonous, by the way, just as y- sh- if you're scoring at home. Can I, uh, can I, uh- Mm-hmm... 26:48 can I ask you about golf currently? I know you have some baseball picks, which we'll get to here. Golf, are we about to head into the FedEx Championship arc here? Playoffs time, baby. 26:57 We are, and speaking, speaking of venomous, uh, for, for myself and Kelli- Kelly Bidlin, uh, felt like we got bit by a snake a little bit this weekend. 27:06 Michael Brennan, uh, who we have all bet, uh, somewhat routinely, and Matt Brown has as well. 27:13 [laughs] And one of the bigger hitters on tour, didn't have him, had it surrounded with Tom Kim, with Davis Thompson, and with young Benjamin James, and Michael Brennan ends up running away from the field and, uh, winning the Wyndham Championship. 27:26 So now we are in the final 70. We- we're down to 70 now at the, uh, FedEx St. Jude Championship, that of course being in Memphis. Uh, walking in Memphis, shout out to Mark Cohn, Grammy winner. 27:38 And then after this week, we go down to the BMW Championship at Bellerive in St. Louis, then that's the top 50. 27:45 And then the following week you're of course at East Lake where you usually are in Atlanta for the, uh, final 30, uh, for the FedEx Cup playoffs. 27:52 And what's our, and what's our format now for that third and final one at the Tour Championship? Are we doing a- the, uh, I- I always say it's the- Starting strokes? Yeah, starting strokes. What are we doing now? 28:05 They switched that last year actually. Uh- That's what I thought, yeah... they switched that to, uh, where you start it all over again. 28:11 And of course, uh, you know, Tommy Fleetwood, uh, finally, uh, got that first win in America. Still searching for a second one, uh, by the way. So you see him, uh, on the board there, on the graphic. 28:22 I think fourth choice. Uh, some of these guys too, by the way, they have not played since the Open Championship. 28:28 So they did not play any of the, any of the Midwest events in, in, in Minneapolis, in Detroit, and then of course the Wyndham last week. 28:36 So some of these guys are, are still getting off the deck a little bit, but looks like everybody is a participant this week that can be, that nobody is skipping this event, save for Daniel Berger who I believe has an injury. 28:47 So only 69 players officially in here, but yeah, you, you see the usual suspects here, uh, uh, with this, uh, as we, uh, wind down August. So Scottie, Rory, Xander, typical order there on the board. 29:01 And then, then there's a little bit of drop-off from the top two like there has been. So, you know, some decent mid-range prices on I think, uh, some very quality players. 29:10 And player of the year, of course, is still at stake here. That's gonna be a decider because- Mm-hmm... I don't think you've had really one standout. Mm-hmm. 29:18 You've had guys that have won multiple events like Chris Gotterup, like Cameron Young, uh, you know, like Sam Burns has been such a factor in the majors at pretty much every major this year. 29:29 So Ren- Rory of course won the Masters, but yeah, it's absolutely wide open, uh, for this, uh, crazy golf season we've seen. Does any book put up, pardon me, a market for 29:41 w- the end, the end of the three tournament point total rather than just this tournament alone obviously? I, I think that they still might. Mm. 29:51 I, I don't, I don't wanna say for sure because I'm not a- actually 100% certain of that, but, uh, you know, obviously you don't have the starting strokes deal for the- Right... 30:01 Tour Championship, so that's not gonna- That, yeah... 30:03 give you that bias that it would toward the chalky guys where it was like, okay, well, the guy who's a clear number one in the points, Scottie Scheffler, it doesn't matter if he played- Right... 30:12 poorly in Memphis or in- Yeah... the event lead up, he was still gonna be the overwhelming favorite. So- Yeah. Do-... there might be a couple that do, but go ahead, Kelly. That's a, that's a great point. That, that... 30:22 'Cause when they used to do it that way, that became a fascinating market. Well, you, you were almost, and they still have it up, I'll run through it in a second. Yeah. 30:29 You were al- uh, back when they were doing the starting strokes, you were almost obligated to like, if you were, whoever you were gonna bet outright for this week, right, in like the St. Jude- Right... 30:39 you almost had to bet them in that market too. Correct. 30:41 Because if they go win an event, they launch up the point standings, and all of a sudden you're starting, uh, the Tour Championship with five strokes or seven strokes. 30:49 So what you're saying is that they didn't care to make this interesting for bettors is ultimately. [laughs] Correct. Yeah. Uh, you're just, uh, FedEx Cup odds right now. 30:57 Scottie Scheffler plus 330, Rory McIlroy a little over eight to one, Cameron Young 13 and a half to one, Xander Schauffele 16 to one, Ludwig, Tommy Fleetwood, Sam Burns, all 17 to one. Yeah. 31:09 Not as interesting though, as Wes points out. 31:11 'Cause when you have the, the, the strokes, the first place heading into the final tournament was 10 under, nine under, eight under, seven under, and it cascaded down, and that was part of the calculus, right? Mm-hmm. 31:22 To be able to figure out where they would slot heading into the final week. Uh, okay, baseball. Uh, 10 games Major League Baseball today, as is, you know, usually the case on a Monday. Some teams don't play. 31:34 What did you end up with today, Wes? Yeah, just a couple today, and one being, uh, the Boston Red Sox, who were, uh, very, very good to you, uh, in the previous- Yes, they were... month. 31:43 But not gonna play a side necessarily here. What I am gonna play is, is a pitcher prop, and I think on the excha- changes you could still lay about $1.70 with juice. This has gone over, uh, in the overnight. 31:56 But, but Sonny Gray over 17 and a half outs here. So that means basically he's gotta go, of course, six innings. 32:03 The Boston Red Sox bullpen, uh, you know, the, everything has been going so well from them, uh, but, and people pro- might not have been paying attention, that they actually got beat in a series this weekend by the, uh- Mm-hmm... 32:14 the, uh, Sacramento Athletics or the Fresno Athletics or the Las Vegas Athletics, whatever you wanna call them. 32:19 [laughs] The Athletics, uh, who haven't won a lot of series, uh, lately, but, uh, certainly did w- take two of three in Fenway. And one of the byproducts of that is that Red Sox bullpen got used up a bunch. 32:31 They are very taxed. I think they used, uh, six relievers, by the way, yesterday, including Chapman, including Whitlock, including, uh, Moran. 32:39 So the only guy they didn't use is, uh, one of the guys that have been kind of their half ex officio closer, Justin Slayton. But that means that you're gonna have to get a lot of length from your starter in Sonny Gray. 32:50 And I think we're getting to this point of year in baseball, right, where you wanna manage your starters, but you gotta manage that bullpen too. And now the Red Sox are back in the race. 32:58 So, you know, I think Sonny Gray, Toronto pretty aggressive at the plate, even though they don't strike out a lot. I think you see him go six innings today. So over 17 and a half outs, lay the vig. All right. 33:09 On Sonny Gray, uh, starting for the Red Sox today against the Blue Jays. And then the Mets and the Braves, you took a total play here. Yeah, over, over eight and a half. 33:17 Uh, uh, some regression candidates here with, uh, Christian Scott and Bryce Elder. 33:21 And if you watch the Braves this weekend, they did get one, uh, in, uh, in the, uh, stadium up there in the Bronx, but the offense wasn't really quite there really for either team. 33:31 Uh, you have three pretty low-scoring games there. I think they get going here a- against the Mets. Uh, Mets obviously just playing out the string. 33:39 They finally got something going in Pittsburgh yesterday after they got shut down the first two days of the series. So, uh, uh, over eight and a half, uh, for me with the Mets and the Braves. Okay. Um, any instinct? 33:52 I'll just, I'll, I'll leave you with this. Team that no one wants to face in the playoffs in the American League and National League would be who? 34:00 In the American League, uh, I would probably say, I would say the Yankees once they get healthy- I think you're right on that... at, at the plate. Yeah. I think the Yankees. And then in the National League, 34:11 I know they're the favorite, but the Brewers. Yeah. The Brewers. They've just figured out a way to manage that staff this year. I like both of those answers. 34:18 Not the, not the answers one would expect, but I, I, I like them. Straightforward. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it as always. You bet, guys. Thank you. Coming back, Kelly's got some preseason plays. 34:28 [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 34:43 Back on a numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Wes, by the way, you know why I love having Wes on more than anything? Overall great guy. Overall great guy. 34:53 Um, but both on air and off air, we end up having musical conversations. Mm-hmm. And he brought up something. 34:57 I actually spent 90 minutes listening to his recommendation that he just brought up now, but I happened to listen, um, to it for 90 minutes when I was on vacation. He brought up- Yeah, what was this?... Keith Urban. 35:07 Are you familiar with Keith Urban? Yep. Keith Urban. Country guy. Country artist, but, you know. Plays guitar. Former husband, I guess, of, uh, Nicole Kidman. Is that your- Oh, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 35:16 Did you, did you just vomit out all your Ke- Keith Urban knowledge? Very, except I knew the Nicole Kidman part. Keith Urban decided to do a yacht rock cover album. Okay, that's badass. 35:26 Oh my Go- And I don't, listen, I, I don't, I haven't heard an interview with Keith Urban, but he clearly did it lovingly to the point where he wanted it to sound as perfect to the original as he could, with his own little spin on it. 35:40 But it was just done so deliberately. Every instrument, sound, and every, like the, and it was just awesome. S- uh, he did- I will be checking that one out. He did Robbie Dupree's Steal Away. You know that song? Mm-hmm. 35:52 Um, Baby Come Back by Player. Baby come back. You can sing all these. Just The Two Of Us, Grover Washington Jr.- Yep... Bill Withers. Sing that one for us. Just the two of us. [laughs] On and On, Steven Bishop. 36:04 You know that one? Uh, I don't know. On and on. Um, How Much I Feel, Ambrosia. Summer Breeze, Seals and Crofts. And oh, Gino Vannelli, I Just Wanna Stop. It was just fan- Oh my God. It was so good. 36:17 Anyway, there's your musical- Remember, I still, I still gotta drag you to Yacht Week crew the next time they're out here. Oh, I'm down. I'll do that. That's a great show. That's a great show. 36:24 And it makes me feel really young. Yacht Week crew. But like one of the younger people in the crew. Like when I go to the, uh, derby, uh, party at the South Point? [laughs] Exactly. I'm so young. Exactly that. 36:33 [laughs] Oh my God. Oh, man. Is this what the fountain of youth looks like? [laughs] Uh, Del Mind the Gap Radio, welcome back. Attending Raiders game Thursday. 36:43 After listening to many bash Dolphins win total, don't sleep on Jeff Hafley. Really like Miami, plus four in week one. There you go. Brian M, Brian Morianan. 36:52 Over under for that week two San Francisco-Miami game is 46 and a half. Feels like a 17 to 7 game hovering around the spread, but way under the total. So that's a good angle on it. 37:02 Dolphins are in Vegas week one, so knowing if they fly home and then back west or just stay out west will determine that. It's a great tweet. Yeah, that's, uh, talk about two nightmare situations, uh, colliding, right? 37:13 Like either you're hanging in Vegas- Yeah... or, or you're going all the way back east and flying out west again. P5 legends. Gil, I nominate you to relaunch the old Mike Lombardi Step into my Office vs. segment. 37:24 It's not about what we wanna hear, but what you need to hear. He says, "Of course, the UNC football GM has to be your first guest for advice. Welcome back, Gil." Yeah, I'll call Lombardi, see if that happens. 37:34 I'm sure he's got it all figured out. Torch D, uh, tweeting back, he says, "Well, I'm kinda disgusted with myself. I've been a huge snake nerd my whole life and I just called them poisonous. 37:42 Gonna take a long, hard look in the mirror. Will check back in tomorrow." That's- Get it together, Torch... Torch, if that is your real name. It's a very, very honest, 37:54 self-introspective, I think, or introspective- That was- That's, that's redundant... snake- Introspective look at yourself. Snake nerd? Is that what he called himself? Venomous. Apparently we would not get along. 38:02 Uh, snakes are disgusting. He called himself a biology nerd, not just a snake nerd. [smacks lips] Um, you have a couple preseason NFL plays for us. I do. I do. Snakes are gross. 38:12 Ladies and gentlemen- That's all I've got... Kelly Bidlin preseason plays. Just firing on these Friday, as Dustin and I were sitting here, and the lines were opening up. It was kinda great. 38:20 We had, like, opening lines on the show on Fridays, so we were running through these. Yeah, I got a be- uh, a bunch. We went through kinda quarterback depth charts, who we're trusting, who we're not trusting as much. 38:29 The coaches, obviously, we've talked up. Um, so mentioned, let's see, we'll start on Thursday, where we have games going. I have a teaser, six-point teaser, 'cause I can't help myself. 38:39 Like, I, it, it, like, the 10-point teaser's probably a little bit more valuable in the preseason. I'm totally doing the three, uh, leg, 10-point teasers. I don't even know if I should put them up because they're so... 38:49 You can't find them. Yeah, they're tough. Unless you're betting in a faraway place. They're tough. Yeah, maybe not. Uh, I b- I don't even know, I mean, is everybody offering six-point teasers? 38:58 I was a little surprised Caesars was doing their normal tease, uh, teaser pricing for the preseason. I saw the, I saw the six-pointers, yeah. I just can't, I can't help myself when I see these low totals, right? 39:05 So I was leaning, le- uh, actually, these are two, uh, these two are still both available still, Colts and Chargers. I teased up both of those sides. So Thursday, Colts at the Patriots, Chargers at the Texans. 39:17 Uh, two of those quarterback depth charts, I believe, a little bit more in, although I don't know if you've caught the... Here, uh, hope you're sitting down for this, Gil. The ba- more bad Anthony Richardson news. What? 39:27 [laughs] Thank God you warned me. There, there, there's been a couple, like, funny camp storylines. 39:33 Like, Anthony Richardson's one of those that when camp started, it was kinda, I, I g- I heard some, like, good things coming out, and he had secured the number two spot, and they didn't know if they were gonna trade him after the, like, there was indications that he'd be traded. 39:45 And now reports this morning that him and Riley Leonard are firmly battling it out for the number two quarterback spot. So I actually like that, though, for preseason betting, right? 39:53 You kinda look for those quarterback battles and where they're taking place, not often for the starting job, but often for that second, uh, second quarterback job. Mm-hmm. So you got that going on. 40:02 Trey Lance over there in San Diego for the Chargers. Oh, LA. Wow. Been a while since I've done that. When's the last time you called them the San Diego Chargers? Oh, yeah. It's been a while. Just did that. Wow. 40:11 All right. So those two in a teaser. It happens. Yeah. And then, uh, I'm picking on some injured teams. Titans, I, I took this when they were the dog. They are the favorite now against the Niners, uh, that night. 40:22 That is Thursday night. Man, it, it crossing the zero, so not a huge difference here, but hopefully you were listening earlier [laughs] when Gil went over what the, uh, preseason ATS records were when w- do- what was it? 40:34 Dogs of two and a half, right? Do- two and a half or less? Yes. Yeah, a lot of success there. So, uh, I caught it at the dog price. They have flipped to the favorite, so that one might be a stay away now. 40:45 And then the only other one I bet, I believe this hasn't really moved. Yeah, Chiefs. Chiefs, I played the money line. I, I kinda like the Chiefs setup. We talked about Sean McVay and the Rams earlier. 40:53 I think McVay is more of a punt it in the preseason guy. Chiefs, uh, Chiefs got an interesting, uh, quarterback depth chart right now c- heading into the preseason. We saw Chris Olave last season start a game for them. 41:05 He's, like, fourth. You're gonna see Garrett Nussmeier get a lot of plays, so depending on what you thought about him in college, maybe that's a bright side, maybe it's not. We'll find out. 41:13 And Justin Fields is there as well. I, I'm assuming we're not gonna see much of Patrick Mahomes. Like Justin Fields, you're always... Remember the Tyrod Taylor years? 41:20 You're always looking for the, one of those backups with some legs. I think that makes a lot of sense there in Kansas City. So small favorite. They're laying a point and a half with the Rams coming to town on Saturday. 41:30 I played Chiefs money line in that game. Uh, I just played a three-team, 10-point teaser. Nice. What you got? Dolphins, Commanders over 25 and a half. 41:43 Bucs, Jets over 26, and the one that kinda scares me, Rams, Chiefs over 26 and a half. Like it. [laughs] What could go wrong? Yeah, for sure. Yeah, absolutely nothing. What could go wrong? 41:55 I like that Bucs, Jets one for sure. Yeah. Again- Commanders... where, where you can get these, and it is, the, the places where you can find these. Oh, you know what's interesting? What's that? They, uh... 42:09 Oh, they make you... Okay, they make you bet a, a nickel, nickel, a nickel max on these now. The, uh- They will not let you bet more than a nickel, which is interesting because that bookmaker, 42:21 usually what they'll do is they'll let you bet it more... Oh, there they go. Okay, yeah, you can bet, just bet a second time. I was gonna say, that was weird. Yeah, so y- uh, nickel at a time. Okay. Well, there you go. 42:30 There you go. Uh, d- the Vikings, Giants line is a little interesting to me. I, I think this Vikings team is one I'll be jumping on a fair amount in the preseason for sides. 42:38 Like, this is another, uh, uh, quarterback depth chart where it's, okay, you've got Kyler and JJ McCarthy allegedly still battling it out for the starting quarterback job. 42:47 Um, so you would assume both of them are gonna get some snaps, even though it's probably gonna be very limited for Kyler- Yeah, Carson-... allegedly, by the way. Yeah Yeah. 42:54 Yeah, Carson Wentz there, yeah, Carson Wentz, whatever, whatever you think about Carson Wentz, him picking apart third-stringers on defense, fourth-stringers on defense, I can get behind. 43:03 Max Brosmer, I s- I've called the worst thing I've ever seen play quarterback, but you know, he, he played quarterback professionally last year. He did. 43:09 Do you, do you believe that the Browns have a quarterback battle going on? Do you believe that? Oh my gosh. So that's the other one. 43:15 I think, I think, I mean, ahead of Anthony Richardson, there's probably a couple other ones, but that, the Browns quarterback battle story has been wild to track because, like, end of last week 43:27 I finally started to back off of like, "Oh man, maybe Deshaun Watson does not have this one." It's been a terrible camp. Shedeur was like really splitting snaps with him and everything. 43:36 And then this weekend, this weekend all of a sudden it was like, no, no, Shedeur's just gonna like take snaps with the second team and Deshaun Watson's just, just taking the first team snaps. 43:45 Yeah, there's only one way to play it. Start Deshaun and then if that goes bad- I, I agree. 43:49 But, but I, but I do, like as you were talking about this just now, it is not outlandish to think that as, for as long as Deshaun hasn't played, that he could be like... Look, I mean, it could have passed him by a bit. 44:03 So we didn't, Dustin and I didn't really finish this conversation- Yeah... last week, but we got into it and, and it's, I understand the, we, we paid a lot to get this guy here. 44:12 You want, you wanna finally see- You wanna justify it. You wanna justify it, but also like you, you paid it. You, it's paid. It's done. Right? Like if he sucks- Yeah... 44:21 and you see that Shedeur Sanders might actually have something, I actually think you've got the obligation to play Shedeur over him. So I don't know. 44:29 It, I mean, look, it could make sense that it plays out that way, but I get it. Dylan Gabriel still hanging around, too? He's still hanging around. Yep. Allegedly. 44:38 Now I was, I was surprised that, that this was even a thing, which is why I bring it up. Cleveland, by the way, a one point favorite against the Bears week one of preseason this week. 44:48 I was, I was surprised at all that this was even being called a, a battle. I, I wa- Yeah... I was too, man, but you start looking at those and it- Yeah... it never, people make too much of them. 44:57 Some of the like, the camp tracker stuff. Oh my God, Deshaun Watson, those first like four or five days. So bad. It was like a bajillion interceptions. Like, oh, they just left and right. 45:05 [laughs] Uh, let's talk some Major League Baseball awards. Let's do a heat check. Some are, uh, unbetable at this point. Hope you got on them when we said to. And a couple have changed since I was gone. 45:16 We'll see if those are justified next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
