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Aug 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 11, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 11, 2025 | Hour 1
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Transcript
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0:59
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
1:12
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. However you're taking us in, we do appreciate it. I'm Gil Alexander.
1:23
That right there, ladies and gentlemen, is Kelly Bidlin. Hey-o. How we doing? Producer number nine. So much more than a producer. What's happening? How was your weekend? Oh, pretty good. Yeah? Yeah, it was nice.
1:33
We had the, uh... Actually, it, it, it's, it's, it's the weekend always of the... There's the hacker convention weekend. Oh, hacker convention. Which I have a cousin that's out here every week for. Mm.
1:43
I have a friend that's out here, or every, every year for. I have a cousin every year, a, a friend every year for. It's absolutely terrifying. I learn something new that they're working on that terrifies me.
1:52
Um, but yeah, it's always busy. And then we got BetBash week. It's just a s- it's several weeks in a row of busyness. Wow. Love it. Wow. It's fun. Didn't even mention the Star Trek convention in town also.
2:01
Oh, oh, oh my gosh. Yeah. I have a, I have a video of that, by the way. Do you really? Yeah, yeah. So I stopped by the Rio Saturday night. I was bouncing all around on Saturday night.
2:09
Stopped by the Rio, where both conferences were kind of being housed at, and there was, like, one bar of, like, nerdy hackers drinking. Yeah. One bar of Trekkies drinking.
2:18
[laughs] And then they were, Gil, they were set up where there was hundreds of Trekkies watching Star Trek within the r- Rio. Yeah. I have a video of it. Maybe I'll get Wyatt to pull it up. I, I will say this.
2:26
I have attended a Star Trek convention, 'cause my brother was friends with the showrunner for many years, and so I've attended, not one, I've attended multiple of these. And there's, like, grown...
2:35
I say this with no judgment, 'cause who's to say that what- No, no. Yeah... we like in life is, is more important than what they like in life.
2:40
But there are grown men and women dressed in their Star Trek character of their- Full uniform... of their choice. Yep. Lined up to ask questions of, like, the show writers, completely dressed up, right? And in costume.
2:53
And they will be like, "Hey, uh, in, uh, episode, in Season 4, Episode 7, Scene 3, when you wrote so-and-so," the writer's like, "I have no idea what you're talking about." [laughs] They are that nerdy about it.
3:04
And then I'll- Anyway... I'll maybe give the details later on this, Gil. Yeah. And then when I'm leaving the, uh, Rio and heading home, I order an Uber, right?
3:11
Uber driver screwed up, forgot to switch his, his, like, driver profile or whatever, and a, a part- a full f- a full-fledged party bus arrives to pick up just me. Come on. Swear to God. I, I got a video of it.
3:24
It's hilarious. Oh, wow. Wow. See, that's, I asked how his weekend was, and that's what I got. Yeah, yeah. All right. Uh, on the show today, Paul Spohrer on Major League Baseball as we near the quarter pole this week.
3:34
Quarter of the season left, and some change right at this moment. Uh, gonna ask Paul to power rank his teams in the American League and National League as post-season power ranking t- power rank teams.
3:47
Uh, that includes teams that are on the inside of the playoff picture right now and on the outside per league. Gonna get that feeling from him.
3:53
Wes Reynolds on what was a spectacular golf tournament, uh, this past weekend, the first of the three. Oh, so... Yep. The 70. Now we're down to 50 for the FedEx Cup. Um, did you have Justin Rose?
4:06
Did Wes have Justin Rose? Oh, man. I think this is gonna be a difficult conversation- At the St. Jude's... on the show today. Oh, no. This is, uh, uh, Wes had Tommy Fleetwood outright.
4:16
I- You, on principle, can you have Tommy Fleetwood outright? Hey, man, Cameron Young got it done last week. Tommy had every chance. I, I hear you, though. I had a top 20 on him.
4:25
Um- Two-shot lead with- I got in- Two-shot lead with three to play. Yeah. I got in heavy on Scottie Scheffler on Saturday mid-round at, like, four to one. If he could just make a putt.
4:36
D- he was so good on Saturday, and then Sunday- Yeah... just couldn't make anything. So it was one of my worst golf tournaments of the year, actually.
4:43
And then I don't know if you talked to your friend Chris Felica, but oh boy. Oh, no. Yeah. He had a nice J.J. Spaun ticket, uh, in a winner-without-Tommy-Fleetwood-and-Scottie-Scheffler market.
4:54
So the only b- the only person he had to dodge was Justin Rose. 45-year-old Justin Rose becomes the, uh, the oldest European to win a PGA Tour event. Is that- Really? Did I read that correctly?
5:04
Wow, I didn't hear that one. No. Did I hear that right? I'm sure you, I'm sure you're pro- you're probably right. Oh. It was a great tournament, though. Awesome tournament.
5:10
Uh, we will do, and, and Adam Burke, by the way, we need Adam Burke to come in here, VSiN managing editor.
5:14
Not only the, uh, you know, the brains behind all of our guides, college football, pro football, and beyond, but, uh, he deserves to talk some smack to me right now as we head to the, you know, again, the quarter pole of the MLB season.
5:26
Because his Cleveland Guardians are right now at this moment would be on pace to go over their season win total. And we have that, uh, bet from before the season. I have him on the under. He has them on the over.
5:38
Guardians, despite their loss yesterday, not only thinking about eclipsing their season win total, which has them just above 500, but try to get into the post-season only a half game out of the playoff picture right now in the American League.
5:50
So we'll talk to Adam about that. And then we will do, this is a great market that we, that, uh, you found, Kelly. Uh, season wins in the National Football League head-to-heads. Mm-hmm. Head-to-head season win match-ups.
6:01
Where's the value in that? Um, and I have, like, I thought this was a great market over, was it DraftKings? Yeah, DraftKings, FanDuel There's, I have four of them that I love.
6:09
By the way, none of them in, of course, nobody in town 'cause I- Nobody... I did check that. Nobody in town. Yeah. Nobody in town. I broke it even into tiers, Gil. I broke mine into tiers, that's how much I liked. Hmm.
6:19
I was like, [laughs] here, tier, tier one that I would definitely bet, then I got some, I got some heavy leans, too. Also got a, uh, got some tennis picks coming up.
6:26
Got four tennis picks which we'll get to here momentarily. Great weekend in tennis for us. Uh, and then, or do you wanna do them right now? You wanna do them right now? Yeah, we can- Eh, we'll do them right now...
6:34
get them in quick. By the way, three and three on Saturday, including dogs of plus 142, plus 196, and plus 263. So that was a heck of a day- Great... on Saturday. Yesterday, three and one,
6:47
and I wanna focus on the o- on one that we lost, by the way, a plus 147 dog yesterday, mind you. The one that we lost, um, first of all, 0 and 6 on break points in the first set for, uh, for our guy f- um, [smacks lips]
7:01
I'm forgetting now who it was. It, it- Jensen Brooksby and somebody else. It, well, we faded Jensen Brooksby. I, I wanna say Flavio Cobolli, but it wasn't Flavio Cobolli. Now it's of course escaping my mind who it was.
7:10
But, uh, anyway, he had, uh, he was O for six in the set. It was, it was, uh, Arthur Cazaux. Cazaux was the guy. Um, he was O for six on break points in the first set. Okay, you lose that set.
7:20
It, tennis happens sometimes. But I just wanna say in, in, uh, in set number two, game two, and this is where the match fell apart, it was a 30-minute game featuring 40 points and 17 deuce points.
7:36
You will bet 1,000 tennis matches and never see this. Of course, you, we lost that on Cazaux and then that, that match collapsed. But anyway, a great weekend, three and three with the three big dogs on, uh, on Saturday.
7:45
Three and one yesterday. Today, four plays. Two are in the, oh, there it is. By the way, this is, this is what it sh- looks like at flash score. How crazy is that?
7:51
[laughs] It's just- You sent it, you sent this to me and I was like- You never see this... I was like, "What am I looking at?" For like- It's incredible...
7:56
it literally took me a minute to realize it was just tennis scores literally g- uh, point by point. You could watch a sitcom from the beginning of- [laughs]... from the beginning of that game to the next one.
8:05
Anyway, uh, today, four plays. Two start early in less than an hour. Uh, on the men's side today, uh, one big dog, again, the biggest dog we hit on Saturday was on Terrence Atmane. Terrence Atmane.
8:19
Or in English, we'd say Terrence Atmane. Yep. That's how, that's how it looks phonetically for us, uh- [laughs] Terrence Atmane... us Americans. Terrence Atmane. Against Joao Fonseca, your boy, plus 319, Kelly.
8:31
Still at, like, plus 273 right now. I'd still play it. Atmane, his, his, his numbers are really good on hard courts, and he should not be this price. Should Joao be the favorite?
8:40
Sure, but it should be nowhere near this price. Terrence Atmane, looking for a second straight big dog winner on him at plus 319. Again, vsi.com/picks. Get these overnight for subscribers.
8:50
Hugo Humbert, plus 124 versus your boy, Big Foe, Frances Tiafoe. Hugo Humbert, plus 124. Only a couple cents worse now. I'd still play it.
9:01
And then on the ladies' side, Taylor Townsend, who is now a favorite against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, as opposed to being dogs in all of her previous matches here in this tournament in Cincinnati.
9:09
Taylor Townsend at minus 130, and then Maya Joy. How many times have we bet on Maya Joy? Yeah, you've bet her a lot. Plus 122 against a Katarina Alexandrova.
9:17
So it's Atmane and Humbert on the men's side, Townsend and Joy on the ladies' side. Uh, to football, 'cause that's the big one. NFL preseason one, preseason week number one in the books. And,
9:31
and, and including the Hall of Fame game that preceded that, 14 and two to the over. Of course, we would've been, we, we had a f- we had a, one more game, but that was suspended.
9:43
The Lions-Falcons game didn't go 55 minutes after the players decided after a major injury, "We don't feel like playing anymore," and the officials stopped it with just over six minutes left, gotta go 55 minutes.
9:53
But 14 and two, including the Hall of Fame game, to the over. And Kelly, the question becomes on this, here are your options. One, it's completely random that this happened,
10:07
and, you know, books will adjust, so I'm just looking for an explanation. Maybe this helps us somehow in our handicapping. Was it completely random and is likely to just, you know, not happen anymore?
10:16
Obviously, there's gonna be adjustment two. Or two, um, any number of reasons, right? There's two A through two F and, or two G on these, right? Mm-hmm.
10:25
Is it the new kickoff rules, which I'd have to go do a forensic dive into, see if it's, you know, now that it's gone not only from the 25 to the 30 yard line, but from the 30 to the 35.
10:36
And we talked about this last year. When you do the, uh, w- Steve Fezzik was good at this. Moving it from the 25 to the 30 is not enough of a deterrent.
10:45
Y- you actually don't score that much more points-wise offensively on an average starting position per drive. But when you go from 30 to 35, that bounces.
10:55
And if you're the Jacksonville Jaguars, apparently you only need five more yards, you get a field goal. [laughs] Right. [laughs] Um, but so, so it's new kickoff rules.
11:03
It's the fact that defense are playing soft coverage. Ticket writer right down here at Circa just said to me, he goes, "They don't wanna make a tackle." He says it's all business decisions, right? Everybody has a theory.
11:11
Um, if you look at the scoring per quarter, per quarters, which I did. I got this in Bill's daily newsletter. Oh, did you? Check it out. Oh, I get, I get it. Yeah, you were quoted in it, yes. I gave it to Bill, yeah.
11:24
Um, and, and i- typically in an NFL game, second and fourth quarter scoring is more, but this was really stark. Yeah. Uh, total number of points in the first quarter, 152.
11:33
Total p- number of points in the second quarter, 256. More than 100 points more. Total number of points in the third quarter, all the way down to 127.
11:42
Total number of points in the fourth quarter, and this includes with the game where they just quit playing, 223. So 152 to 256 to 127 to 223. Maybe the two-minute drill on offense [laughs] is, is more prepared.
11:57
Maybe fourth-string offenses are that much better than worn-down fourth-string defenses. There's so many theories, right? Okay, so- Do, do you have any more options you wanna throw out there? No, I could go on...
12:10
So I, I read what you wrote. I, it, it's, this is not gonna sound very exciting. I agree with you. I don't really know that there's too much to take away from it.
12:19
Uh, I, I ended up watching way more than I thought I would. If I had to say one thing that just stuck out to me, it, in general more than anything else, it just felt like offenses were further ahead of where- Yeah...
12:31
the defenses were at. And more of what you're talking about, that second, the third-stringers being ahead. Leading rusher, week one, NFL preseason, Owen Wright, Tampa Bay- Let's go... Buccaneers. That's awesome.
12:41
A name that means something to some of us around here. Coming back, uh, we'll talk some match-ups. National Football League season win total match-ups next on The Number Game, Numbers Game at VSiN.
12:51
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:08
This season's biggest edges start before kickoff. Get yours with VSiN PRO. Right now, new subscribers get both the NFL and college football betting guides, your one-two punch for smart betting.
13:16
These guides are packed with team previews, power ratings, betting systems, and the best bets from VSiN's top analysts. And that's just the start.
13:22
You'll also get daily best bet emails from our hosts and guests, real-time betting splits and market insights, 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app, plus full access to VSiN.com's tools and data.
13:31
Sign up today for $9.99 or save 50% with the PRO annual plan. Sign up now at VSiN.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. You see the big news? Was, uh, Captain America Dave Ross...
13:44
By the way, great to have Dave Ross back on the air this morning with Jensen- Yep... on By the Books. Finally got the moving truck to show up. [laughs] Was he, was he going crazy about this?
13:53
So you hear the big deal this morning? UFC and Paramount. Paramount is gonna become the new home to all UFC championship events in the US under a seven-year agreement that begins next year.
14:06
Yeah, that's a, that's a- Seven years. Se- And I, what did I say to you when we f- when the deal first came down? I said, "Man, Dana White must've gotten paid a grip." You know what I mean? I mean, he must have. Yeah.
14:15
The terms came out. Seven years, $7.7 billion. Yeah. Ladies and gentlemen- That'll do it... UFC, I won't say it has arrived 'cause it already o- obviously has arrived, but this puts it in another stratosphere.
14:31
I didn't even... Like, I, I would love to talk to someone like Dave about it. No more pay-per-view.
14:35
And we'll pro- Well, I think there's a big pay-per-view this weekend, so maybe we'll ask Jordan about this- Starts next week... by the way. Next year, yeah. Um, the, uh, just j- Man, I thought it was shocking.
14:43
Like, I, I didn't know. I was like, "Is this something that, like, people knew were, was coming?" I didn't. Was expected? You know what I mean?
14:48
Like, to go away from a pay-per-view model for fighting is, it's kind, that's, that's kinda odd. You don't see it.
14:55
To, to do so, you, you had to have been given a price that made it worthwhile for them, and 7.7 billion apparently was the tune he wanted to hear. Here's the big question.
15:05
Will you, will you, Gil Alexander, watch more UFC? Yes. Really? Yes, I will. Okay. All right. That answers it then. There you go. Because h- here's the real answer to that question.
15:15
Ask me if I have a Paramount subscription. Do, do you have a Paramount, uh, subscription, Gil? I have no idea. [laughs] I might.
15:22
I thought you were gonna say yes, so like [laughs] I, it, this is how, this is what it's come to with these streaming services. Yeah, I know. I know.
15:27
Did I ever get Paramount, or was that Discovery g- Like, I can't remember if I have Paramount or not. Did I... What was the, what was the Beatles thing on? I don't remember.
15:35
I did this with Apple TV like a week ago- Yeah... though. I was like, well, they were like, "Log back in." And then, then I just, like, resigned back up for it apparently. I was like, "I already thought I had it.
15:43
I didn't mean to re-sign up for it. Dang it." Um- You, you gotta get that thing. Was that, was that, uh, company that was, uh, advertising? No, we did. I did get it. And it didn't work. And it sucks.
15:53
I don't wanna say that. [laughs] I don't... What is it, Rocket- Rocket... Rocket something. Yeah. It, it works for every, like, major brand company. I see.
16:00
If you're looking for your football stat sites and golf stat sites and stuff that you're paying subs to, no, it's not gonna show up. Uh, let's look at...
16:08
So let's take a, a revisit, revisited look at who's gonna take the first snap for a few of these NFL teams before we get to the season wins match-ups here.
16:16
Real quick, let's not spend too much time on this, but, uh, you wanna start with the Colts, Saints, or Browns. Which way you wanna go first? Let's go with the Saints.
16:24
Let's go with the Saints, who by the way, in case you missed it, uh, Spencer Rattler got the start. He was 7 of 11 for 53 yards, ho-hum. Uh, Saints fans were losing it on the last quarterback, which was J.T. Taylor.
16:36
[laughs] But in between, it was Tyler Shuck. Tyler Shuck, 15 of 22 for 165. He did throw a pick six, but besides that, he looked pretty good.
16:46
Uh, and now the Saints' odds for first snap, um, for the first game of the reg- Well, first snap. I suppose it could be a different game than the first game. [laughs] That, that would be a story.
16:56
Uh, but week one starter odds, what do you have on the Saints? Minus 245, uh, for Rattler. Shuck is plus 190. Haener, 40 to 1. You feeling Shuck after that performance at plus 190? No, I'm just upset that...
17:07
Well, well, I guess we didn't really have him available to us. But when, when did these first come up? Like May? And we were like, "Should Rattler and Haener really be the dogs to this Tyler Shuck guy?"
17:19
Nothing like Rattler looks amazing, but I really think, I think he's gonna end up getting the week one start. Well, although Shuck is Kellen Moore's guy, right? He was the, he was coach when they got him, so that's...
17:28
I don't know. Shuck was pretty good besides that pick s- [laughs] Besides the pick six is a terrible phrase at the end of a sentence. [laughs] Yeah, right? Besides the pick six. He was great besides that disaster.
17:36
No, but I mean, he w- he really was pretty good. I, so I think, d- do you think that the preseason matters more for this team than the other two we're about to get to? Hmm. This quarterback race.
17:47
For, for first snap it does. Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Well, I think the Browns are starting... Well, I don't even think, I shouldn't even say that.
17:56
I think the Browns are starting Flacco at this point because of Pickett's injury. The Browns, by the way, Shedeur Sanders, in case you missed it, 14 of 23 for 138, two touchdowns, no picks. Dude, he looked good.
18:07
He looked good. Um- Like, I'm not going off of numbers. I watched that, like, entire, every snap he played. Yeah. I, I thought he looked pretty dang good, Gil. Browns' odds are? Flacco w- minus 156, Pickett plus 150.
18:20
So this has come down a little bit. Flacco was a bigger favorite when it, when Pickett was out with the injury, right? Yeah. Shadour jumps Gabriel.
18:29
Shadour is 13 to one now, Dylan Gabriel is 14 to one to take that, uh, week one first snap. I think it's Flacco. I think it's Flacco.
18:38
See, I, this is the one I was asking you about the pre-season, because I think this, I actually think the pre-season matters less for this one, and this is more about which vet looks best in practice here over the next few weeks.
18:49
Yeah. I, I, before the injury, I would've said Pickett. I think I did say Pickett, but now, now it feels like Flacco to me.
18:54
And then the Colts, Anthony Richardson minus 245, Daniel Jones plus 186 for the Indianapolis Colts. By the way, Daniel Jones in his, uh, week one pre-season debut for the Colts, 10 of 21 for 144, no touchdowns, no picks.
19:09
Anthony Richardson, two of three before the injury to the finger, 21 yards. Anthony Richardson minus 245, Daniel Jones plus 186. You believe that? Yeah. Okay. All right. You gotta trot out Richardson.
19:22
I- you got another... If you gotta pull in week three, week four, week five again, fine.
19:28
These are markets I would, full disclosure, if we had them, I would not bet them, but you know what a market is that I would full disclosure bet this? Right now, I would not bet this. Yeah.
19:37
I would be- I, these first snap ones, I don't real- I don't really gravitate towards them. The limits are probably pretty low. But you found these season wins match-ups over at DraftKings, and if I had access to these,
19:50
I would be going crazy on these. Um, season win match-ups, National Football League, one team versus one team, and there are odds.
19:56
And so this is like betting a tennis match, uh, just in terms of the odds, but you gotta obviously wait a full season for these. Kelly, I love four of them. Should I give you all four of mine? Sure.
20:06
Before we get to yours? You look confused over there. Go for it. All right. We did- Well, we're supposed to do this in a half an hour, but it's okay. Oh, you wanna do it in a half hour? No, no, no. We already started.
20:13
Go ahead. Oh, we can do it in a half hour. Let's do it in a half hour. We're, we're, we're fine. You know what? Instead, let's do the survivor thing. Let's [laughs] do the survivor thing. Let's do the survivor thing.
20:20
This is, you're right. Let's, let's do those in a half hour. The survivor thing, so this is... We'll get to your NFL [laughs] we'll get to your NFL season wins match-up. Sorry, we had a lot to get to.
20:28
We got f- we got Matt Human's fast food rankings to get to. Yeah. We got a lot of stuff to get to here. This is something that just caught my eye, uh, as we head into survivor this year.
20:38
Uh, and this is what, I wanna give credit to the, uh, to the gentleman who- Michael Fiddle. Michael Fiddle at Fiddle Picks.
20:44
Uh, I don't know Michael, but this was pretty, uh, pretty v- uh, visionary sounds a lot, but this was, uh, he had foresight with this, right?
20:51
Uh, to ask Grok, Twitter's AI arm, "Hey, what's the best path to win Circus Sports survivor contest?" Obviously, gotta include Thanksgiving and Christmas in there. Now,
21:05
this is pretty interesting to me, because first of all, Grok made an error at the end. It botched the last five weeks. It skipped a week before Christmas and added a week after Christmas.
21:19
So that's the first thing with AI. A- and I don't know what I remember da- uh, what I did with Rob, uh, Rob's 1 versus 100, uh, you know, gorilla versus, versus humans.
21:28
All I did was pull in page one of this tweet though, Gil- Yeah... so it w- I didn't do all the breakdown afterward. Okay. Just what the, what, what Grok spit out for picks.
21:35
But I just wanna, I just wanna point out, so, so it did make an error. That's the first thing when you, when you ask a AI, you know, make sure that they're actually telling you facts here. So there was that.
21:43
But I think there was something interesting about it, because if you are to win this, um, you gotta zig when others zag. I don't think you have to zig as much as AI was zagging here, the way Grok was doing.
21:55
But this is, so the first week was Denver Broncos, right? Which would be a pretty consensus pick, minus seven and a half favorites over the Tennessee Titans.
22:02
Week two, it went Dolphins two and a half point favorites against the Patriots. Okay? Yeah, it's got some- That's the first one where you're like, "Okay."
22:11
I mean, I mean- But, but maybe you understand it, 'cause you're like, "Well, you're gonna have to use the Dolphins maybe at some point," or maybe that was one of the iffy teams you have to use.
22:17
I just want- And, and you'd rather use them earlier, right? Yeah. Okay. In case of injury. Okay. Makes sense. Tampa Bay Buccaneers then are seven and a half point favorites against the Jets. Okay, we're good.
22:26
Rams, seven-point favorites against the Colts week four. Yeah, still good. Here's where it gets very Groky, AI-ey, if you will. Week five, Seattle Seahawks, one and a half point dogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
22:38
[laughs] This is where you're like, "Okay, we're the, we are not dealing with a human anymore." Week six, Green Bay, two and a half point fa- favorites versus the Bengals.
22:48
Week seven, Steelers, four and a half point dogs at the Bengals. [laughs] And it goes... So the first, basically what I'm saying is the first four weeks it sort of checks out, and then after that it goes haywire.
22:59
It also, again, makes the i- the error at the end. So I just point this out because it's like, we will track this, by the way. We will save this, and we will see how it does, but it's,
23:08
uh, one of the interesting things is the team that it picked on the most, the team that it picked on the most- Yeah... Cincinnati. [laughs] Which, which checks with, which tracks with last year, right?
23:21
Oh, I thought it was Giants that it picked on. No. Well, that's what he, that's what Fiddle said, but I did it week by week. It's Cincinnati. Oh, it is Cincinnati? Okay. It's Cincinnati.
23:27
So, and just in case everybody- Yeah... everybody, people that use more AI than Gil, [laughs] Gil and I probably do, the guidelines, right? Yes.
23:34
So what he had to punch in here, map out a path to maximize the chance at winning Circus Survivor, uh, using lookahead lines, currently priced schedule insights, and survivor pool strategy principles. So it is that.
23:48
He went with the Cowboys over the Chiefs as the dog on Thanksgiving, and the Chiefs over the Broncos on Christmas. And like I said, it botched it at the end. Coming back.
23:56
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:08
Oh, we invite you to play the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros. Go to it. sharpplays.com.
24:21
Check it out. We get tweets at Beating The Book. I remember Ron Burgundy threw them. Yeah? Yeah. Yeah. Cool. I haven't checked it. I haven't checked it either. This is gonna be good to play.
24:28
Spud Webbsports, "Another great day in Cincinnati, Gil." Well, let's hope it's a third straight, uh, nice day here in Cincinnati. Uh, let's see. Scuba Scott, yep. Shuck had a great game except for that pick six.
24:39
I said the same thing yesterday where I had this great five team NFL totals preseason parlay to the over except for that Chiefs game. Well, I will say this.
24:45
My, uh, my brain dead over teasers were so brain dead, it was like having passive income. So I did those two. I had the four team, I had the four team nine pointer, and I had the three team 10 pointer over teaser plays.
25:02
Yeah, my only question I guess was with the game that got suspended, did you play that one? That one got reduced on the four to the three. Really? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
25:09
I know we, I know we got- Yeah... a couple tweets and emails- Yeah... about how that was graded differently. Well, we got, we got an email. Bill Ade sent us an email where someone got it graded a loser- Yeah...
25:17
which is complete theft, complete robbery. Can't do that. No. Uh, let's see.
25:24
Cleve TA chimed in on reasoning, by the way, that we're, we're being told by, uh, by Mike Rouse about, well, you know, what's with the over trend.
25:31
He said, "Thought possibly the new kickoff rules are leading to so much scoring in the preseason so far." Not really, though.
25:35
Average starting field position following a kickoff has been 29 yard line, the same as last season. That's why I said I'd have to do a forensic sort of check on it. Yeah, you and I were talking during the break.
25:44
It was just, it, it like, I don't have a great, a great answer.
25:47
But it seemed, it seemed to me, I flipped on a lot of games where it was like, hey, there's Mitch Trubisky and Mike White who have played a lot of snaps now starting at quarterback in the NFL, like carving up a third, fourth string defense.
26:02
There's Jameis Winston in the game at the end of the third quarter for the Giants.
26:06
Going from four games to three games, I don't think, in preseason, I don't think we've fully been able to wrap our hands around what that means. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And I think- I, I don't have an answer. Yeah.
26:16
That's literally the best I have, is just it felt like offenses were, were clearly ahead. Fred Curry, you're looking forward to Kelly's party bus ride story.
26:23
Hey, Rel, you haven't lived until you've seen the anime convention that was just held in DC last weekend. We were talking about conventions here.
26:29
And Kevin Ryan, Gil, there are a few certainties in betting golf, but a no-brainer is that Fairway Jesus will collapse when leading on Sunday. That guy. Yeah. Man, that is rough.
26:37
At least, at least in the United States, right? He wins in Europe. Can't win in the United States. Let's talk some baseball. Paul Spor joins us now from Fan Grafs, @Spor on Twitter, @S-P-O-R-E-R.
26:47
And of course, the host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast. How you doing, Paulie? What's happening? Uh, I'm doing pretty well, Gil.
26:54
You know, Tiger's sputtering a little bit, uh, has some people concerned, but it's all right. We're in the dog days. It's that time of year, and obviously football creep is, is officially here too.
27:04
[laughs] So, you know, it, it, it's all right. I, I, I don't hate football, I'm just very defensive about baseball. I know you are. Just look at the, the dripping with sadness in his voice. So sweet.
27:13
It's like, oh, the football creep from a baseball hardo. It's here. Well, Paul, let me, let me ask you to do something for us here. Um, quarter of the season roughly left. I mean, it's still an- Mm-hmm...
27:23
eternity, right? Still an eternity to go. Quarter pole maybe. Uh, what'd you say? I'm sorry. Quarter pole. Quarter pole. The actual quarter pole. That's right, the actual quarter pole.
27:30
Paul and I like to make sure we use that correctly as opposed to others. Mm-hmm. Um- Mm-hmm... okay. Can you, for us, can you power rank per league
27:40
teams, uh, that are either on the inside of the playoff picture currently or on the outside in each league if they were all to make the playoffs?
27:48
In other words, give us the most, give us the power ranking of teams per league as playoff teams, if that makes sense. Yeah, right. Right, right. I think, uh, I think in the AL you're looking at probably the Mariners
28:03
might be my top team if they're clicking, right? Wow. This offense the way it is right now, the way they're built for a playoff run, I, I, I think is unquestioned, right?
28:12
It, it really does come down to the offense, right? But I am talking about right now where that offense is starting to click and, and that's even without Suarez doing anything yet.
28:20
You gotta expect that he's gonna get hot again at some point.
28:22
I never thought he was gonna stay at the same level he's been all year, uh, just because that was gonna be hard, especially coming back to Seattle, which is a tough park. Uh, but Naylor's been interesting.
28:32
J-Rod's finding his groove. Of c- of course, Cal Raleigh having an MVP caliber season. Arozarena. Polanco carried them early.
28:38
And then even, like, uh, Cole Young, the rookie coming in and putting up some good numbers down in the bottom third of the order.
28:43
So yeah, I think in the AL, they, the Mariners would be my number one team for a playoff situation because you're gonna go Gilbert, Kirby, Wu, uh, you know, in whatever order. That's insane.
28:55
You do have a bridge to Munoz and then Munoz himself. Yeah, I think I'd go Seattle. And then, I mean, probably my Tigers, like, 'cause they are still set up nicely for the playoffs too.
29:09
I'm, I'm a little nervous about where they're at right now and the lack of swing and miss in the bullpen is definitely, definitely concerning, but Skubal, Flaherty, Mize is not a bad top three.
29:18
You got a, a legit ace and then two guys that are pretty good there, and maybe other guys would move in. Like, I can't imagine Charlie Morton would emerge to get in there.
29:27
But if he's pitching well enough, then yeah, he could take one of those spots too. And the lineup is, is really pesky top to bottom. They don't have a, a true super duper star yet.
29:35
I don't think Riley Green is quite there at that level, neither Carrie, i- is Carrie Carpenter. But they can get you all nine spots of the order. So I put my Tigers second.
29:44
Obviously, I can't do it this long for every team here. I think I would then go, honestly, even in the shape that they're in, if they make it, I think the Yankees would be number three- Ooh...
29:52
given what they would have going. That's what I was most interested in. I- if they make it in. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. If they make it in. So I, I think I would have them third. And then, um,
30:01
you know, probably this Toronto team. I, I, I've become sold on them and, and they would be really close with the Yankees. I could see re-ranking that, you know, depending on what things look like in October.
30:10
But, you know, Berrios, Gausman, Scherzer, if healthy, is a really nice trio.
30:15
Obviously, it's old, but once you're in the playoffs, if they're upright and good, you love that sort of experience and, and greatness from those three.
30:22
Plus you got Bassett and Lauer sitting there if one of them flops or if Scherzer gets, gets hurt or something. And they've kinda turned around their offense this year. They're still anchored by Vlad Jr.
30:30
and Bo, uh, and Kirk really, but then Addison Barger's come on. Love Varsho. Uh, Springer when he's healthy. So yeah, I think I'd have them next. That's four. Then the Astros Then the,
30:42
honestly, if they made it, if they made it- Yeah... I think of the Guardians next and then the Red Sox. I, no, maybe not. No, no, no, no, I can't do that. Cross is gone. Rang- He's not coming back. So, yeah...
30:52
Rangers nowhere in sight. Rangers and Red Sox nowhere in sight there, huh? No, no, no, no, no. Let me get the Rangers in. Yeah, yeah, let me flip on that.
30:59
Let me go after the, uh, uh, Yankees there, it was Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, Rays, Guardians. I got to move the Guardians down. Okay. I forgot, um, Crossé. All right.
31:12
I was thinking about their great bullpen, but it wouldn't be anything in October without him. Uh, by the way, I have a Rangers August bet. That's not frustrating at all.
31:19
The, uh, the Rangers, the first 24 of 25 games in July were averaging 5.7 runs per game. Mm-hmm.
31:26
Starting with the last game in July, so the last 10 games total, they are averaging three runs a game, and in the last, [laughs] in the last five games, they're averaging less than two runs scored per game.
31:36
So it's literally, they were waiting for me to make the bet- Just absolutely fell apart... and then they're like, "We are not scoring anymore for you." Right. Um. They're like, "Oh, you- Yeah...
31:42
you bet on the offense that was cooking. Now we're gonna go back in the tank." That's right, but pitching, right. And what about the National League? How would you rank them?
31:50
So looking at the National League, I think right now I'm still going Dodgers number one, right? You look at Blake Snell getting into form, Glasnow.
31:57
We're gonna assume some things on the health piece there, but if you're going Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, and, you know, or even Kershaw mixing in for one of them, right?
32:07
He's, I know he's got his playoff issues, but he's still awesome. So I'm still gonna, I'm still gonna go Dodgers one, Phillies two, Brewers three, but that's a, that's a 2A, 2B situation.
32:15
I have a tough time splitting them, and I just love what the Brewers do.
32:18
But I wonder if they're more of a regular season, you know, full season grind team than they are playoff team, where I do think stars can be a bit more important. So I'm gonna go Phillies, Brewers, Mets, Cubs, Reds.
32:35
Oh, wait, no, no, got to get the Padres in there. I'm sorry. Padres over the Cubs, I think, in the playoffs, then, uh, then the Reds, and then the Marlins. Okay. I know they're, like, very much on the fringes.
32:47
So the, that's all very interesting because- Or the Giants... to me, again, you, your AL's, again, the AL's tough, right? But you had the Yankees third. Mm-hmm. Do you think they get there?
32:56
Do you think they get to the postseason? I do. I, I think push come to shove, I, I still think they're gonna get there despite some of these issues that they're having. You know, closing down games has been tough.
33:06
Obviously, we know the trials and tribulations of Williams, and then the new guys they got, they all kind of went belly up right away.
33:12
But I still think, you know, they got two legit aces with the lefties, Freed and Rodon. I like Warren. Let's see what Schlittler and Heal can do down the stretch.
33:20
And the Brewers, who I believe you had third in the National League, who appear to never, uh, have any intention of ever losing another baseball game. Right. 9-0 in August. Yeah, they don't lose.
33:28
Are you n- so you're not completely buying into them. Is that a fair... Third is still good, but you're not, like, over the moon. For, for October. Yeah.
33:38
For October, I'm still a little suspect on, you know, Freddy Peralta I think would be, you know, playoff ace. That's great. Woodruff is too if he's healthy, but man, I love what he's done.
33:47
Is he gonna run out of juice because he's coming back from injury? That's, that's a huge wild card for them. If they don't have a B. Woody that's pitching well, I think that's where they really get undercut.
33:57
And again, the offense, like, they kind of have to get things going, and it's hard to get contact and get players on base in October. Now, if you can, and you keep that, that, uh, wheel spinning, that's a huge thing.
34:08
But it is very difficult, and they rely on that sort of contact to sort of get things going, and I just wonder if that can go pretty quiet in October. Do they have the home run power to catch up?
34:17
'Cause home runs are so important in October. I have a Tigers-Padres, uh, World Series matchup, 66 to one, which I still really like, and sadly- It's really fun...
34:27
sadly, I paired the Mariners with the San Francisco Giants. Yeah, that's not gonna work out. Oh. [laughs] Not gonna work out. Paul- Sorry, Gil. That's in- that's an interesting...
34:35
By the way, I love how muddled the AL became 'cause I still don't know where the Blue Jays are- So muddled... and all that, you know, after, after that exercise. Right. Uh, thank you, Paul. Appreciate it, man, as always.
34:44
No problem, Gil. Paul Spohrer. Thanks for talking to me. Take care. @Spohrer on Twitter. Always fascinating. We'll do those NFL season win total match-ups next, I promise. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:55
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:13
Have you been watching the Survivor documentary, Kelly Billings? Yes, I'm a bit into it. Circa- [laughs] he's a bit into it. Circa Survivor. I mean, I'm, I'm into it.
35:21
I'm not, I'm not all the way caught up is what I meant to say. Oh, I bet you're into it.
35:23
Circa Survivor, the quest for $14.2 million, 10-part documentary series following the drama, strategy, and heartbreak inside the world's largest legal football contest.
35:32
You catch the final five episodes starting tomorrow, August 12th through the 16th, 9:00 PM Eastern.
35:37
And if you missed an episode, you can watch the first five episodes, that's the first five episodes now, at vsin.com/survivor.
35:43
Unlike episodes one through five, where I had a little sneak peek, I have no idea how six through 10 go. Bump, bump, bump. No idea. I heard you're cussing a lot. People, uh, people really, uh...
35:57
Gila, you can't think of better words? Lot of, lot of Gil dropping F-bombs. That's what I heard. Why can't you think of better words? Feh. Goldnefish.
36:07
Um, also, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, we're doing a draft on Wednesday. Yeah, you are. During, during Follow the Money, um, Dustin Sweetolson will take over the helm.
36:19
He will host the, uh, the first ever VSiN draft of season-long NFL bets. Now, the five categories, so there's 10 of us who are in this. Draft order has been selected. JBT is your number one pick.
36:32
Jonathan Vontobel's got your number one pick. Um, it's a snake draft. I feel like that happens a lot. Not that there's any really- What, that JBT gets the number one pick? Yeah, yeah, I don't know.
36:41
[laughs] He's always g- he's always getting Circa Futures' number one pick. This guy. I, uh- This guy. The randomness always feels like it plays out in JBT's favor very often.
36:50
So this, this is Wednesday, 4:00 PM Eastern, 1:00 PM Pacific. JBT with your first pick. Dave Ross, Captain America, number two. Stormy with three. I got four.
36:59
Tim Murray five, Jensen six, Maher seven, Patrick Maher seven, Mitch Moss eight, Matt Youmans nine, Paulie Howard 10, and he'll snake with Paulie, so he'll get two picks there.
37:08
But this is five categories, uh- Damn, they're doing this in the Follow the Money time slot, and we got Mitch and Paul eight and 10. Dang. Yeah, it's messed up. That's rough. Messed up.
37:17
Five categories, 10 picks total for each. Um, the five categories, win total overs, win total unders, division winners, then player props, and then stat leaders.
37:30
So not even a betting category with the fifth, just stat leaders. No awards, and you can't do, as, as Isaiah just taught me, you can't do alternate
37:41
season wins in the same direction if somebody had that in that direction. Mm-hmm. So if you do Saints over, I can't do Saints alternate over. Ooh, well, well thought out by the brass- Yeah, man...
37:49
as we just discovered during the break. Yeah, and the awards also. Isaiah had answers for every question. I, yeah. Yeah. Uh, y- you cannot bet on the stat leaders. You can bet on the stat...
37:58
Oh, you can bet on the stat leaders too, right, on s- in some books. Yeah. Okay, so there's that. So there's five, so there's five categories, obviously. Otherwise, we wouldn't do it if you couldn't bet on it. Silly me.
38:08
Uh, but no awards also because, um, uh, Isaiah said y- those, we won't find those out till well after the regular season, so you can't do that. We want it to end of the regular season. So they've thought it through.
38:17
So, uh, that it is. VSIN's Pro Football Futures Draft, Wednesday, 4:00 PM Eastern during Follow the Money. The normal hours of Follow the Money, we take over with the draft, hosted by Dustin Sweetolson.
38:29
That'll, uh, that'll be fun. That'll be entertaining. Yeah. Hopefully you're gonna get a lot of good bets out of that. Dustin hosting it will do a great job. Um, he's gonna have his hands full.
38:38
He's gonna have his hands full. We'll see who's... For everybody who's keeping track of picks selected. I was gonna say, does Dustin have to write down the picks as he's hosting? I don't know, man.
38:45
Or is somebody else gonna do that? I, I mean, you, you and me have got a lot of experience doing these- Yes, we do... prime time action days, so it's, uh- Oh... we know what works well, we know what doesn't. Yep.
38:53
We know where there's some potential hiccups. It's, uh- That was just me, you, and Matt doing golf. Yes. Golf one and dones, and we couldn't get it right. We couldn't do it without arguments.
39:01
This is also why Dustin's the perfect host, though, because Dustin could ri- can rip on everybody on that screen- Oh, yeah...
39:07
and nobody's gonna get, like, overly offended or anything like that, 'cause that's Dustin being Dustin. All right. Kelly, uh, did a great job finding this. This is available at DraftKings. These are favorite NFL...
39:16
So these are NFL win totals, but in matchup form, head-to-heads, with odds. Um, and I lo- There's a bunch of them. What'd you say, 25 different ones, somewhere in the, 20 to 25, somewhere in that? Yeah.
39:28
I, I guess I would, I would guess even more than that, but yeah. The, these are the four I like the best. I actually liked a few more than these, but the four I like the best. So the first one, uh, Steelers.
39:37
This should be a plus, by the way, on the Steelers. Steelers plus 175 versus the Bengals, who are minus 160 in this matchup. Steelers plus 175 versus the Bengals. As much as my little buddy over here, Kelly Bidlin.
39:51
By little buddy, I mean he's losing a lot of weight. Uh, as much as you are, you know, sort of fade in Steelers mode on a perennial basis- About to crack that 220 mark... I think there is... Are you re- 220?
40:03
No, tw- tw- I was gonna say... the 220s. Oh, I was about- 220s, but still [laughs]... I was about to say. Good God, what just happened? Um, sorry, weight loss aside. Yeah. Pardon, pardon me.
40:12
Uh, I think there is a world where the Steelers have a better finishing, finishing, uh, record than the Bengals.
40:21
All right, another thing we should definitely throw out there, 'cause if you are interested in betting these, these are at DraftKings. They are a three-way market, right?
40:28
There is a tie i- i- i- that you have to incorporate. Yes. So just keep that in mind if you're going to bet. Okay. I got the Steelers plus 175 versus the Bengals.
40:35
If you, uh, I don't know if we have the Steelers' schedule handy. I'll call it up here too. But there is, there is a world where the Steelers get out to a ridiculous start here, uh, as they did last year, by the way.
40:47
I mean, they start out with the Jets, at, at the Jets, home Seattle, at New England, home Minnesota, then a bye, then home Cleveland. I mean, there's a world where four and one is, is maybe not even unlikely. Oh my gosh.
41:01
And if you start out with that kind of thing and bank those wins, you know, they still have games against Indianapolis, they still have Chicago, they still have Miami, they still have Cleveland again.
41:12
They still have division games where Pittsburgh's always feisty. And Cincinnati is, you know... Look, I, I, I'm bullish on Cincinnati, but you're giving me plus 175, and that's the point of this. The price is right.
41:22
Give me the Steelers plus 175 versus the Bengals. I also have the Tennessee Titans plus 160 versus the Indianapolis Colts. Joe Pete and I were talking a little bit about this this weekend.
41:34
I think there is a doomsday scenario for the Colts. Oh, totally. Yeah. This, this is less about the Titans for me, which, by the way, we had Cleve in here and others who are bullish on the Titans. I, I get it.
41:44
There's a, there's a scenario where the Titans are good-ish, right? Six wins, seven wins, that kind of thing. This is more about there's a scenario where the Colts...
41:51
Would it surprise you that much if Anthony Richardson was hurt and Daniel Jones sucked at football, and the Colts end up winning four or five games? No. It would not. Or, or they, or they both suck, right? Right.
41:59
Like, like I'm gonna be the guy here that's always gonna take a gamble on Anthony Richardson, but, like, we, we've seen it. Yeah. It could happen.
42:05
He could start three games, be terrible, and then Daniel Jones goes in there, and guess what? He's not all that great either. 100%. Plus 160 on the Titans in that matchup with the Colts.
42:13
Then I like the F- this one boggles the mind to me. How are the Falcons plus 245 against the Buccaneers?
42:19
Taking nothing away from the Bucs, Falcons have one of the top four easiest schedules in the National Football League, and if Michael Penix is anything like the flashes he showed at the end of last year, I don't know.
42:32
I mean, as, as good as the Bucs may be, you don't think this is a neck and neck at the end of the season? I'll take plus 245 in a heartbeat on that.
42:40
And then the final one is I just think one team is better than the other. Cardinals, not as sexy of a price, but minus 115 versus the Seahawks. I am bullish on the Cardinals.
42:47
I am probably, per the market, bearish on the Seahawks. So those are the four I love the most. So that's one, actually, though, you'd rather pr- you'd probably just rather play Falcons division price, plus 250. Correct.
42:57
Little bit better. Yeah. So with, with all, with all of these, you should always not only shop from book to book, but within the same book, market to market. Yeah.
43:06
So let me just say this again, though, what I was getting at earlier. First snaps, I don't think I'm betting those if those are available to us. I think it's just something we talk about to fill some time.
43:16
These I would actually bet if we had these. You, sir. Yeah, I split it into, uh, in a couple tiers 'cause the, the top three I would bet. Tier two's kinda like heavy leans.
43:26
Commander, I was s- shocked this one wasn't on your list. We brought this up last week. I, it was, it was like fifth or sixth for me. Yeah? Yeah. Yeah.
43:31
Commanders, uh, laying a price against the Patriots, but I am just... And this is another one, this is more about the Patriots for me.
43:37
I'm just not nearly as high on this Patriots team, uh, as a lot of pe- others seem to be. Uh, I think there's just a lot of question marks that I still have.
43:45
Can the defense really play as w- as well as everybody expects it to? Um, can Drake May go back out there? I, I think Drake May looked good last year. Can the, can that whole offense really take it to another level?
43:55
That's a question mark for me, and I, I'm a believer in Daniels, man. I, as long as he's healthy out there, I'll lay a price. I, I, that's... I haven't made any pro Commanders bets.
44:05
This is the one I actually think this would be the best way for me personally to wanna play the Commanders. Um, Ravens over the Lions. This is just a... I think that NFC North's gonna be tough, Gil.
44:17
I think the Lions do take a... I don't think they're gonna be bad, but I do think they take a slight step back. We're talking about two of the better teams in the NFL, right?
44:24
But I do think they, they take a slight step back with the coordinator changes that they have to make, a couple changes on the o- or change on the offensive line. I think that comes into play.
44:33
And then the Broncos over the Chargers. This p- probably the one I like the most, actually. Plus 110 over the Chargers. That was like six or sevens for me. Yeah.
44:40
Now, now there's a lot on here, and I think this comes into play. You could say this about the Ravens-Lions. You could say this about the Broncos-Chargers.
44:46
You could say this about a couple others further down the list for me, too. I'm a little scared of that tie coming into play. [laughs] Like that is... I, I don't know if the Broncos are gonna...
44:55
I agree they're gonna be better than the Chargers. They better by them by four wins, and I don't have to be worried about this at all. Meh, I don't know, maybe. Um, okay, tier two, Packers over the Vikings.
45:05
This is just I'm a little higher on the Packers, a little lower on the Vikings than seemingly everybody. Ravens over the Chiefs. That one's tight.
45:12
I prob- I would not bet this 'cause I could see both those gu- both those teams having really good records. But the pl- I thought plus money on the Ravens was a little surprising.
45:21
And then the one we matched on, Cardinals over the Seahawks. I would... Let's, let's freeze these and keep these, uh, close to us so we can actually examine these at the end of the season.
45:30
The biggest difference between yours and mine, I took three big prices in four of mine. Yeah. You, you didn't take any big prices. Yeah. No. And I think, I think that'll be the way to do it. We'll see. We'll see.
45:40
Let's, let's keep 'em in mind and, uh, look back at 'em at the end of the season. We'll come back. Wes Reynolds will join us. Adam Burke, Matt Human's fast food rankings, all that and more.
45:50
Numbers Game, VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
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