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Aug 11, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 11, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 11, 2026 | Hour 1
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47:00
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander alongside Kelly Bedell, and everybody. Yeah, man.
0:21
Aren't you glad to be back? Uh, yeah. Uh- In studio. Uh, I'm glad to be here with you.
0:26
I'm always glad to be here with you, but you real- [laughs] I mean, this was, how many weeks where you missed great pre-show meeting conversations like we just had, okay?
0:34
Oh, that, that, that you can't put a price tag on. Breaking down toilet paper around the world. Speaking of which, couldn't help but notice as I came down the elevator, you were, uh, going back to the studio- Yeah...
0:43
and I have an overhead l- view of you. I got a bald spot or something? You, you were really, uh, really tamping down that arm swing. Is that, like, by design? Well, haven't we had this conversation before?
0:53
I- That gave you a complex about it? No, I've... Well, well, yeah, we've had that, and you- Yeah... sure did. You did. Yeah. You nailed it. It was always something that was in my head. Yeah.
0:59
And, and Gil just, just picked it out perfectly. But no, I think it's, I think it's physics, man. I think it makes sense. As I've lost weight- Oh, you don't have to go out outside. Right.
1:09
Like, I think there's, like, a little bit of, like, a swing momentum of, like, getting your momentum going forward when you're a bigger guy. Glad we got that solved. I think that's what's going on.
1:18
So what you're saying, you were doing a roundish thing before. Makes sense. Mm-hmm. Okay. Uh, that as important as the show we're about to do. Cleve T.A. joining us today. Let's go. Go.
1:29
Uh, among the many, I don't know about many, but among those that do preview guides, and we're talking VSiN at the top. Mm-hmm.
1:37
We're talking about our buddies, Aaron Schatz, Warren Sharp, everybody who, uh, does annual pre-season NFL football guides for the upcoming season.
1:45
Cleve's is always one I look forward to because it's very succinct, it's very betting-focused, specifically, like ours is, and he's got a take that, uh, I always wanna hear. Yep.
1:56
And we will talk to Cleve about, uh, some of the features, new features that he has, uh, in his new, uh, cleveanalytics.com revamped website with survivor opt...
2:06
He had this last year, but I don't think as quite as streamlined as it is this year. We'll ask him. Yeah, it's, uh- Survivor optimization- It's nice... tool on there as well. Did you play around with it?
2:15
I played around with it. It's pretty cool. I, I, I, I don't know if I can say I played around with it. Okay. I looked at it and I clicked a couple times. It is. Yeah.
2:24
I mean, look, I think for having whe- whether it's his or, or somebody else's, just having those type of tools as you're preparing for survivor run, which we're gonna talk about today, very important.
2:32
Appreciate the password you gave me, by the way, on there as well. It was very creative. I didn't set that up, you did. [laughs] Oh, you did. Oh, so whoever did, I appreciate it. Uh, so Cleve on football.
2:40
Drew Dinsick, of course, off his, uh, performance at Bet Bash, was awesome by all accounts, his tennis seminar. He was awesome, yeah. Still waiting for Spanky to send me the, uh, the video- Oh, my God... of that.
2:52
I would like to. If you need me to break down the last 15 minutes of it, I can do that play-by-play. Oh. It was fantastic. Spanky had to come in and say, "Wrap it up"?
2:59
Oh, yeah, Spanky, oh, no, he wasn't happy, and I was wondering how much longer we were gonna go. And of course, Drew was asking, answering every question that was asked, and then- Of course, he's great...
3:08
and then out of nowhere, Preston Johnson appeared in the middle of the crowd- [laughs]... without his beard, so nobody recognized him. And he was asking- And Drew, Drew from the stage was like, "Preston?"
3:15
Yeah, yeah, he was asking the last question. I was very entertained sitting at the back. Drew will talk, uh, if he has any, uh, tennis in Canada for us today, we will get that from him. Also, NFL talk with Drew.
3:25
Mark Borchardt on baseball, Joe Sheehan on baseball, packed show, great guests.
3:30
And I wanna start the show with something we don't normally do, which has nothing to do with sports betting, but it has to do with just, for those of us who have watched sports all our lives, the never-ending amazement of the sport that is baseball to me.
3:41
Which, and, and I always, I've brought this up on many occasions before. I always go back to the dream team in 1992, the Barcelona basketball team, USA basketball team.
3:50
It, to, to just give you a sense of how basketball ha- wasn't completely global at that point, like, hadn't really- Right... spread to every corner of the earth.
3:58
I remember after one of their wins, uh, Team USA was, uh, up there at the podium and, and a reporter asked Karl Malone specifically, "Uh, why does a basket count for two points?"
4:09
And Karl Malone in his aw shucks kind of way was like, "Hey, you know, some things just are." [laughs] Right?
4:13
And then that, that led to a whole conversation throughout my life with my buddies of, like, what's the hardest sport to explain to people? And it's always baseball.
4:19
Because imagine sitting, if you ever tried this, and I have, sitting with someone who is not from this country- Oh, yeah... and you try to explain base- baseball has rules within rules within rules within rules.
4:29
Like, once they, once you think they've got it down, then you have to explain the infield fly rule to them. Right. "Oh, I thought you said that was a third strike."
4:36
"Yeah, but the catcher dropped the ball and there was no, you know, first base, there's nobody there, so you gotta throw it there for an out." Um, there's any number of these things, right, in baseball. Mm-hmm.
4:45
Rules within rules. Did you see this last night in the Jays-Red Sox game? I was telling, I was telling Danny, I saw the highl- I saw the highlight this morning.
4:52
I saw the first full highlight, Gil, and I was busy getting ready, and I'm like, "I'm gonna need to see this four more times before I understand this." I, how many baseball games you think you watched in your life?
5:01
Oh, five. Five bajillion? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Me too. Um, I needed to, I needed to watch it a few times too.
5:08
And, uh, what's so funny this morning, well, we'll get to that, but it's two to nothing Blue Jays, for those who missed it. It's two to nothing Blue Jays. By the way, Red Sox lose their third straight.
5:16
They finally got the memo that it was not July anymore. They suck. They're terrible. You, you realize when they won 27 out of 30, people were accusing them of cheating. It's gotta be cheating.
5:24
[laughs] Well, here's three losses in your pie hole. We're not cheating. No, okay, so it's two to nothing Jays. Sox have runners at first and third, one out. I think it was the seventh inning.
5:35
Don't hold me to the inning. Doesn't matter the inning. Two to nothing Jays, Sox have runners at first and third, one out. Huh? Fly, fly ball to center field. Right. Caught. Second out, right? Mm-hmm.
5:45
Both runners, first and third base, thought that there were already two outs when that was, when that ball went off the bat of Xander Raffaella. Because that's what it said on the scoreboard?
5:56
The scoreboard, I, the announcer- Or is that still up for- The announcer tried to make a big deal about the scoreboard. The scoreboard is just a guide for fans. That's a good point.
6:03
The scoreboard is not what people are going by. Yep, that's a good point. Um, but they both thought, maybe, maybe they did think because of the scoreboard, I have no idea.
6:09
But they decided, they thought it was the second out, and they thought there were already two outs, and they thought that that ball in, you know, in the outfield caught was the third out. Mm-hmm.
6:17
But it was the second out, and so then what do you do? You throw the ball back. They, they throw it to, they threw it to first base for what they believed was the third out, right? End of inning. Yeah. Wrong.
6:30
[laughs] Apparently, what happened here is something I've never seen on a, on a diamond before. The Jays had two options. They could have thrown to third base, right, and record the out on that runner. Or
6:46
after rec- uh, because, because getting to this point is the umpires then consulted. We thought it was the end of the inning. The ums- umpires then consulted and said the run scores from third.
6:55
So apparently what the Jays could have done, they had two options. They could have thrown to third and recorded the out on that runner. Mm-hmm. Or- 'Cause both runners left. Both runners left. Right? Yeah.
7:02
Or two, after recording the third out at first base, they could immediately appeal the runner at third before abandoning the field. Appeals take precedence on plays that also involve the recording of a third out.
7:14
Otherwise put, let me try to do another way, since the runner from third scored before the third out, the run counts because it's not a force, but a timing play. What Toronto- Right...
7:24
should have done, again after the, the out at first, they legally could have thrown to third and appealed that runner left early. That would have been the elusive, what they call fourth out. Which is by the, the...
7:34
Real quick, that's just my favorite part of this story. Does it confuse it further? Because Gil, Gil, have I... How many games have we watched, and have I ever heard of fourth out? A fourth out.
7:42
Never heard that before in my life. And that would have replaced the third out and nullified the run.
7:46
But once all, this is the key to the whole thing, once all the infielders cross the foul line, once all the Jays cross the foul line- Okay...
7:53
meaning they were already basically considered in the dugout, the ability to appeal the play was lost, and once that happened, the run was officially counted. It, it's, it's just a, sort of a mind...
8:04
What I love is the blowhards on Twitter who are like, "Is it too much to ask the players to know the rules?" And then they recite exactly what I did 'cause they learned it 20 seconds early [laughs] or 20 seconds earlier.
8:14
It, the, uh, there's another way that I would sort of try to convey it, which is the confusing part I think to some also might be if the ball was trapped in the outfield. Right.
8:25
That would have been more normal for us because then there would have been confusion- Mm... as to whether it was the second or, you know, or that it was the second out or thir- or the third out, whatever, the third out.
8:36
And then it would make sense, but it was just such a routine fly ball that we're not used to seeing it that way. So did the umps end up getting it right in the end? Yes. They did, right? Yes. Yeah. They got it right.
8:48
But like, but- Because it is, it's a timing play with tags... but, but literally none of the players, not John Schneider, the manager, nobody of the Blue Jays, n- like nobody got it. Right.
8:57
And so it just, it's back to the baseball's impo- baseball is the most- And then-... nuanced thing ever.
9:03
And then is the biggest takeaway for any teams, like the make sure you challenge, right, or make a big deal about it before your players leave the field? That last part for sure, yes.
9:14
Like, if there's any doubt, don't abandon the field. [laughs] If there, if there's any doubt, everybody just sit down. Sit down and don't leave the field at all. Scream at each other. [laughs] Anyway.
9:25
Well, I don't know, but to your question, I don't know how they, I, I don't know how both runners thought it was two outs. Maybe it was the scoreboard. I don't know. But scoreboard is not official.
9:32
I, I, I heard that this morning- Yeah... of the scoreboard was said up that way. The scoreboard was def- definitely said two outs, but again, that's not, that's not what you go on.
9:38
If, if you, if, I don't know how you reacted, but if you could have seen my, uh, my eyes roll when I heard the, the phrase fourth out this morning. Fourth out. [laughs] I'm like, "Yeah, baseball. Sure."
9:45
I- It's only been going on for about 700 years. I have never- Now I got a fourth out... never heard that rule either. Anyway, that was, uh, uh, the, the never-ending quirks of baseball.
9:53
I just- Then, then I heard someone talking about it a- uh, they were playing a sound bite from someone talking about it after the game, who was talking about a fourth out like that happens all the time.
10:00
I, I texted Jensen actually on the drive here.
10:02
I was like, "Jensen, if you were on the field," Jensen Lewis, who hosts By the Books with Dave Ross before us, who played at the highest level, played for the Cleveland Indians, was their closer.
10:10
Um, I said, "Jensen, if you were on the diamond yesterday and that happened, would you have known at all what was going on?" He goes, "Oh, hell no." [laughs] I don't know if he said hell, but he, he said no.
10:18
He wouldn't have known either. Who would have? I'm texting him right now how many fourth out games he played in. [laughs] Uh, I do have a tennis play today.
10:26
We are at the, uh, the back end of the quarterfinals in Toronto. We're still playing the full quarterfinals in Montreal 'cause I think they had rain last night and they all got swept away.
10:35
I assume that's why they, the games, the, uh, matches weren't played. But I am on Belinda Bencic tonight as a plus 140 dog against Coco. These two have a little bit of history. China Open last year,
10:47
uh, Bencic got mad at Coco's, um- I was a little surprised to see Bencic... coaching box. What's that? Oh, yeah, I remember that.
10:56
She was, she was like, "They're cheering right before I serve," then, you know, she's saying this to the ump. Then Coco said something and B- [laughs] Bencic barked at Coco. She's like, "Hey, I'm not talking to you.
11:06
I, I'm too old for this," these mind games. [laughs] "I'm too old for these mind games." I got Bencic tonight plus 140 versus Coco in what should be a, a banger of a, uh, quarterfinal match going with the dog there.
11:16
You can still get that price or close to it right now this morning. That was for subscribers last night. Iga last night though, man, Iga advances to the semis. Coco heat check, though.
11:25
We're b- we're back, we're, we've swung back to pro Coco, right? This just price- In terms of her game? Yeah. Oh, she's playing very well. Okay. Oh, yeah. It's just price went too far for you. Yes. On Coco. Correct.
11:36
Belinda Bencic shouldn't be a plus 140 dog here. No, sir. That's the only tennis play at the 1000 in Toronto tonight. Coming back, NFL, Cleve TA, Drew Dincic, and more.
11:47
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13:17
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13:32
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13:51
Start today for just $9.99, or get a full year and save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweets, Kelly. Not sure if you're aware of that.
14:03
We got tweets. Tpars2, one of the puzzle categories tonight on Wheel of Fortune, this is last night, was a numbers game. Hey, how about that? Bill Margoluisky, crazy situation in Toronto.
14:14
Yeah, I really wanted him to send, like, the, the, a puzzle when it was complete. When it was complete. Yeah, when it was complete. Or you could trust him, is what you're saying.
14:21
I'm gonna go with the first word was the, Gil. Oh, the numbers. [laughs] Oh, that's right, 'cause there's three. Never mind. Uh, this is from Haji. "Hey, Gil, I ran into some guy at the South Point, says he knows you."
14:32
Steve Fezzik inside the South Point? Well, that's news alone right there. Parlay cards are out. You know I have to, you know I have to scan through with these tweets.
14:39
I have to, like, uh, aggressively go around the, uh, crack Maldonado battle going on [laughs] here that I've been, I've been tagged into. Oh, God. Uh, let's see here. Uh, Kenny G, who's a listener to the show.
14:52
"Welcome back from vacation." Uh, thank you. He said, "I was in town last week to sign up for Circa, and guess who I ran into? Dustin. Dustin Sweetelson, my mishpocha, on his way to do his show.
15:01
He was kind enough to stop and give a few minutes of his time. Also met Mike Palm at the Long Bar. Have a great show." Thank you, Kenny G. Appreciate that. Uh, this is from, let's see, Colin Murphy.
15:11
I don't think, um, Kelly's arm swing is because he lost weight, or his tamping down of the arm swing is 'cause he lost weight.
15:18
He says it's more so because Dustin has adopted you into the New Age Outlaws and pulled you out of the Bushwhackers. I don't know what any of that means, but okay. Dude, me either. I don't- Yeah...
15:26
there's, there's, there's a lot of re- re- wrestling references going on when Dustin's in. Oh, yeah. And I, you know I don't get any of them either, so. Dustin back on Cash It Out, nightly. That's right.
15:34
Here on the network. Go check it out, man. It's great. JasonH11, "So you're saying Kelly walked like George Jefferson?" That's right. [laughs] He s- he did walk like George Jefferson. Not exactly.
15:43
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, I was watching the Red Sox game live and listened to the explanation from the umps and the broadcaster. I listened to you explain it and I still don't understand it." Yeah. I get it.
15:52
NoEMUdug, "But what if you cross the international date line at third?"
15:55
[laughs] And LFC Tunnel Records, "I'm not a biology nerd, but I imagine there's a major arm swing difference between a spider monkey and a gorilla, AKA Kelly of the past." There we go. Yeah.
16:05
I think he, I think he called you a gorilla. That's, the gorilla needs more help getting- Yeah... that momentum going. That's a good call, LFC. By the way, so I just, I just looked up the rule. Yeah.
16:15
I actually think this happens more often than we're just aware of.
16:17
So, like, the fourth out rule allows the defense to record an extra legal out after three apparent outs are already made, which can supersede the third out and nullify a run.
16:27
But, like, don't we kind of see that often when there's tag-up situations? Yeah, I've just never- Like, let me throw it over to third... I've just never heard it referred to that way. Me, no, me neither. Yeah.
16:35
But it's, uh, like, I actually think it just happens more often. I, we just don't hear them say, "Oh, there's the fourth out rule." What was Jensen's response to your, uh, text? What'd he say?
16:42
Oh, it was very, it was very pitcher focused. So I asked him, "How many f- fourth out games did you play in?" Yeah.
16:48
And he said he definitely pitched in a game, either the bigs or the minors, where he had to record four outs because on the third out there was a dropped, uh, third strike and the ba- and the, and runner reached base safe.
16:59
Yeah. That's more normal. I'm like, like, Jensen, we kind of all know that one. Yeah. I b- I was talking about this one. He goes, "But never have I played in a game with the infamous fourth out rule," like last night.
17:07
Um, last thing. And by the way, 'cause I left this hanging about the tennis stuff. Uh, Iga in the semifinals in Toronto, real quick, 10 seconds.
17:15
If she manages to win this tournament, Cincinnati, she's got two more matches to do that. Forget the fact that she's won three out of four Slams and is one Slam away from the Career Slam.
17:24
This will be her eighth 1000 title. Eighth different 1000 title. Do you know how many 1000s there are? 10. If she wins this, she would be- Wow... two shy of the thousands Slam in addition to the actual Grand Slam suite.
17:38
That, that's, that's more am- that's almost more amazing than the Slam thing. H- how many shy? If she wins this, she'll be two shy. She'll have eight out of 10. Yeah, that's pretty damn good.
17:46
I think the only two that she won't have are, get ready for this, Dubai and Wuhan. Huh. Beginning and end of the tennis calendar. It's a m- it's a, uh, it's incredible. She's plus 150 right now to win Toronto.
17:57
Clearly, clearly the best all-court player of her generation. It's not even close. What did we look at yesterday? What, what were her odds of US Open? Nine to one? Nine to one. Okay.
18:06
Something, something s- I'm gonna play the game... something seems to have unlocked her after the first set against Kostiuk in the round of 60. I'm gonna play the game you always play with me with Scheffler in golf. Oh.
18:15
If she wins this tournament- Yeah... and then she wi- she wins in Cincinnati, right? Cincinnati next? Which she won last year. Okay, and then she wins in Cincinnati, Gil, what are her odds to win the US Open?
18:25
Oh, it would drop significantly I mean, like half? Plus 450? Oh, at least, yeah Is that right on that pattern? She won and one.
18:31
Oh my God, yeah Yeah, one and one By the way, I'm doing Cincinnati radio for the Cincinnati Open thanks to you. Nice. Appreciate that. Uh, August wins. Our Tigers, our Tigers did not play last night.
18:41
Um, but we have at the top of the standings now after the, uh, Tigers were idle. Tigers I think are in fourth or fifth. There we go, fifth. Rays with a massive...
18:51
Was that a, was that a seven-run inning they had last, yesterday? Was that an eight-run inning to, uh, take a deficit and turn it into a big w- uh, margin of victory over the Athletics in Sac Town last night.
19:04
I think they were down 6-3 and they won 10-6. They scored seven in, in one frame. Rays are eight and one here in August. Cubbies, seven and two. Phillies won yesterday. They're seven and three. Padres won yesterday.
19:16
They're seven and three. There are our Tigers who have played fewer games. They're six and two. Tigers still have the best run differential if you are, uh, scoring at home for the circuit tiebreaker.
19:25
Tigers tonight begin a three-game set at home. The friendly confines part of August begins for the Tigers tonight. Three against the Guardians, three against the White Sox.
19:34
Huge playoff implications for them, both division and wildcard, let alone our August bet. I s- I still can't believe. I just can't believe the names of the teams that are on this graphic.
19:44
Oh, I'm glad you brought this up. We're 11 days in, 10, well, we've completed 10 days of August, so we're roughly a third of the way into August. Mm-hmm. So like [laughs] Checking, yes. [laughs] Yeah.
19:56
So what I'm saying is not necessarily like far into it- Right... but also not negligible amount of days. No, not at all. This is the one, we've tracked these monthlies now for almost three years.
20:06
This is the most have/have-nots month we've ever had so far at this point. Sure, sure feels like it. All of these teams on that graphic have won six or more games, right?
20:14
There is like w- I'll look at my things, but I think there's like one team that has won five games. I'll get this, uh, right.
20:21
Yeah, I mean, there's like- Yeah, three teams have won five, four have won four, and [laughs] then the rest of them, right, like eight have won three and four have won two, including the Dodgers.
20:31
So it's like a complete gap. Usually the, the m- biggest amount's in the middle. It's the opposite here this year.
20:36
I mean, e- everybody, if you're watching at home, right, everybody on this screen is currently in the playoffs except for what, the Blue Jays and Mets and one of the NL wildcard teams, like Padres or Diamondbacks?
20:45
Yeah, correct. That's pretty wild. And the Tigers are out on the outside looking in. Oh, Tigers, Tigers, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Uh, okay, so Rays, that Rays game last night.
20:52
They ha- they were down six to two entering the eighth inning. Oh, so it was eight in eight runs... played at eight in top of the eighth. Yeah And I think they like scored six before they even recorded an out.
21:01
It was ridiculous. This just in, A, he's not great at baseball. [laughs] Yeah, they're not. All right, how most wins. We tried to get to this yesterday. We didn't. Most wins, fewest wins. Most wins, fewest wins.
21:11
You can bet on this. Most regular season wins, the Dodgers are still the short shot. Uh, if you look at the current standings, the Brewers lo- I mean, every, every night matters here, right? Mm-hmm.
21:20
So the Brewers lost last night, so, um, the Do- the Brewers are seven. Let, let me give, well, we'll give the records here. The Brewers are 74 and 45.
21:30
Again, we're about to be at the quarter pole of the MLB s- regular season. The Brewers have won three more games than both the Dodgers and Braves, who are exactly three games behind the Brewers at 71 and 48.
21:41
The Rays are the, uh, fly in the ointment 'cause they've won 72. They're 72 and 46. So if you look at these numbers right now, the question becomes, is there a bet here?
21:55
If you wanna do strength of schedule the rest of the way, which I think is the most informative thing about this, because now is the time of year, Kelly, where strength of schedule in baseball matters. Mm-hmm.
22:04
Because it's a short enough runway where it's actually a distinction that you might wanna sort of look at. Yeah, you've got enough sample that you could actually go off of that now.
22:13
Let me start with the Brewers, Braves, and Braves. The closest, uh... Well, Brewers are at the top right now.
22:19
Brewers have the fifth hardest remaining schedule by aggregate opponent win percentage left in Major League Baseball. Braves have the fourth hardest remaining schedule. Rays are middling at 14th. Dodgers, eighth easiest.
22:31
That's why they're plus 105. But when we first started doing this, who did I recommend? The Brewers. They were over $4 at that point. Yeah. They still have a three-win lead over everybody.
22:42
I don't know if they're gonna get there, but remember, the Dodgers couldn't care less about having the most. They just wanna be a one or two seed. So I still think,
22:50
I actually think the Rays are the best bet now, because the Rays I think are going to have to stave off the Yankees in the end. Mm-hmm. And so I think they'll be pushed. I don't think the Dodgers will be pushed.
23:01
Ultimately, ah, again, the Brewers' schedule is hard, so I don't know. I do, uh, I, I hope people bet the Brewers when I said to. I'd bet the Rays now if I had to make a bet. Yeah, this was, this was, man, a month?
23:15
It feels like it was a month of us saying, "Brewers, Brewers, Brewers." Brewers, Brewers. They're oh, four to one. They were four to one still like last week. Yeah, and now they have the lead by three wins.
23:22
They weren't in the lead then. Oh, even, even for some of the ti- like last week they had taken that lead. Yeah. And they were still, you were still getting like four to one on them. Oh, okay.
23:29
Um, yeah, and we said it every time we brought it up. I think Dustin and I talked about it a couple times too. I never bet it, of course. And now of course plus 260 doesn't look nearly as nice.
23:37
And you go, you go and reexamine the schedules left, and I, I think you pointed it out fairly. Uh, then that's what I wrote down for today too, is Rays. I'm like, if I had to bet something right now, it'd be Rays.
23:46
And by the way, most, uh, excuse me, fewest regular season wins, I would r- I would go and bet the Rockies now. They're even money. They're 46 and 73. I know the Angels have one fewer win right now. They're plus 150.
23:59
But the Rockies have the ninth hardest remaining schedule, and I just think they stink at baseball. I, I, we s- we're even showing plus 105. I'd bet the Rockies now. I wouldn't think too hard about it.
24:09
Not a huge conviction bet, but that would be my recommendation there. [upbeat music]BSIN, the sports betting network $30 million guaranteed prizes.
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24:58
I know this, uh, next gentleman is big on playing the Circa contests. Uh, he's also big on putting out what I love, uh, every year.
25:07
I was talking about it earlier how, you know, we have a decent NFL preview guide here at the network. Our buddy Aaron Schatz has done one for many years. Warren Sharp has done one for many years.
25:17
But, uh, this gentleman is, is developing a tradition of doing this as well. It's been a handful of years now.
25:22
It's our buddy Cleve TA on Twitter, C-L-E-V-T-A, uh, known throughout the football betting community, and he's got his new free, free 2026 NFL preview guide out at cleveanalytics.com. TA, what's happening, man?
25:40
What's going on, guys? We were rehashing, uh, the Bet Bash week last week, and you kinda hear it in my voice.
25:46
I'm still, uh, still recovering, but it was a, it was a really fun time, and got some really good compliments on the guide, so it was, it was really, really nice to see and, and I appreciate it from, uh, from everyone who, uh, stopped and, and talked to me last week.
25:58
Well, I, I was telling you off air, I got more than a few folks who texted me. They were thrilled to meet you. Um, so that, that alone, right? Mm-hmm. People were like, like, 'cause they'd never seen you before, right?
26:08
So they were, they were happy to see you, and they're i- influenced by your work. How much are you enjoying, I think I've asked some version of this in the past, doing the guide itself?
26:18
Because I think you, you would, you would answer, "Well, you know, it's part of my process anyway, so might as well, aw shucks, put out a guide." But it seems like you're really enjoying this more and more every year.
26:28
I don't know if enjoy is the right word- [laughs]... because it's a, it's a, it's a labor, labor of work in the summertime.
26:34
I've got two young kids now, and, you know, you got a lot of their activities to, to attend, so I've been pushing it off later and later in the summer. It used to be I would release it around 4th of July.
26:43
Now it's, you know, I think this year it was late July. So, uh, it just, it's getting harder and, you know, I've added more things to it.
26:52
I've, you know, instead of one-page, uh, team previews, I've added kind of a second kinda cover, you know, page with, with some more data and, and charts and, and numbers and things like that to, to spruce things up.
27:03
But, uh, but yeah, I don't... The, the actual process itself gets a little, you know, can wear on me, but it does help for my process.
27:09
And again, just hearing, you know, everyone, uh, with the compliments and, and, and how much it, it helps them and, and things they can get out of it, I, I...
27:16
it does make you feel good, and so that's the satisfaction I get personally from it. So, um, yeah, the, the, kinda the output is where I get, uh, I get that satisfaction.
27:26
Well, we're gonna talk about some of your picks, both, uh, team futures and some awards here coming up.
27:32
Uh, but I wanna talk about one of those things that you have going on on the site, which is your survivor optimizer, which I, I know you, I think you started to dabble in this in a previ- in previous years, or at least last year I remember you did so.
27:46
But now it's all tricked out. You can actually toggle to the rules of varying contests, right? Including Circa, which we just talked about moments ago. Yeah.
27:57
So I had a kind of a basic version last year which would, you know, just helps...
28:01
Obviously, we know survivor is a combination of, you know, pure math when it comes to, you know, uh, uh, pa- you know, a optimal path and all those sorts of things you have to plan out for the full year, and, you know, you don't wanna get stuck without, um, certain teams available during the holiday weeks and just towards the end of the year, especially with this many survivors, uh, you know, in the contest.
28:23
So, um, you know, I've, I've kind of advanced things a little bit more. I've added...
28:28
Yeah, you can, you can either, if you're in Circa Survivor with their sp- you know, specific rules with the holiday weeks, you've got that.
28:34
You can drop down to the new, you know, Splash Sports Survivor, uh, rules, which have, what, eight double weeks- Yeah... that you have to choose from, and they're like random weeks. Mm.
28:43
Like, weeks three, six, nine, and then I guess 12 through 16. So, um, you know, I've got that as- The, the fact they make you do week three is so cruel. [laughs] Right? Double on week three. I know. [laughs] Yeah.
28:55
And, and then also just if you're in, like, an old school standard 18-week pool, just kinda pick one team a week, I've got that option as well. So, you know, that, that is in there.
29:04
And then just, uh, just added a handful of features that I think is interesting that I l- you know, I wanted to use and, and, and look for.
29:11
Things like, you know, you can, you can start from different weeks, so if you're, uh, in a contest that, you know, a second chance pool, for example, you can start, you know, mid- mid-season.
29:22
You can, you can pick a week there. And then also, like, I know people wanted to see, like, I wanna... I know specific weeks that I know for sure I'm going to pick a team, or I think I'm gonna pick a team.
29:33
You can lock those teams in for those specific weeks- Oh... and then rerun- So cool... the, the path to see what it looks like.
29:39
So, and I, the final thing I have that I think is really, I don't, I don't think I've seen anywhere else, now this is a little bit more detailed, but obviously understanding where the rest of the pool is going to be on certain weeks, so essentially the pub- I call it the public- Yes...
29:52
uh, pick percentage. Um, you know, you can cr- you can insert your own percentage for any game of any week and see how that affects the, the algorithm, uh, and the path, because obviously the more, you know, uh,
30:07
saturated, uh, a certain pick is a certain week, and you can use, you know, public pick information that's out there, uh, aggregate that, or just insert your own and just see if that changes the path, uh, going forward.
30:19
You can do that as well. So- A bunch of different things I have, and then I just qu- you know, the, the qualitative, uh, aspect of, you know, just kinda talking through the different options.
30:28
I, I have that, uh, and I've had that for a number of years.
30:31
So that's all on there, and like I said, it's not, you know, a lot of people have this information, and, uh, it, you know, it's a little bit more art than science, uh, to some, some s- you know, re- uh, respects.
30:42
But, you know, at least understanding the path, I think you've got a tool in your back pocket, and that's what I try to provide. Super cool.
30:48
Yeah, I love the, I loved the be able to lock in a team for a certain week down the road. Yeah. Like, that's great, 'cause it, so many times we're writing notes off to the side with that stuff.
30:57
And then, yeah, the percentages, Cleve. I think that's a, it's a great bonus. And for anybody playing in these contests, yeah, definitely go check that out. It's simple, easy to use, free to use. Go check it out.
31:06
And just, well, uh, is it, is it free to use? I wanna clarify that. Oh, that's subscriber, yeah. The, yeah, the guide is free, but the- Kelly's giving away for free. [laughs] Goodness. Yeah. Yeah.
31:15
Spending other- Oh, man... someone else's money. Man. Um, so yeah, no, no, the Survivor Optimizer- Just kidding... is behind a paywall. Yes? The preview is free, yeah. Yeah.
31:23
The, the optimizer, so I have, I have, uh, uh, the Survivor tool with the analysis, along with, um, you know, just my, if, if you're in, in a ATS pick pool, I, I pick all s- all games every week, uh, with kind of the Circa Millions Frozen Lines, um, so the people that, that wanna participate.
31:38
So that, that's on the, uh, on the site as well. That's, um, that's one of the options, so- Okay... uh, that's up there. It's fantastic.
31:44
All right, let's get to, uh, I mean, we'll, we'll get a bunch more after the break here, 'cause you're, you're kind enough to stay with us for two. But let's just start with the basic.
31:51
Who you got in the Super Bowl this year?
31:53
[laughs] So I've got, uh, the Rams over the Texans, which, man, when I was putting this preview together, and I, I put some nuggets out there, um, you know, during the process that I did like Houston more than the market.
32:06
Uh, and then as I release it, you know, we get Aaron Schatz has Houston, uh, and we, there's others who have talked about Houston as kind of the, quote-unquote, "kind of sexy AFC team."
32:16
So I'm a little bit, uh, taken aback that so many are on them, and maybe they see the same qualities that I do.
32:22
But, um, but yeah, I still think it's just such a flawed AFC, you know, between Mahomes', uh, injury and just so much defensive turnover on that roster.
32:30
And then I, I think Buffalo, outside of Josh Allen, I think the roster is really, you know, mediocre. Um, just a ton of new starters on defense. Uh, and then Baltimore, obviously new coaching staff.
32:42
Lamar, you know, who knows if last year was an aberration, but, um, he's slowing down. I just think there's a lot of holes in the AFC, and, you know, the one thing I know for sure is the Houston defense is elite.
32:53
Uh, and they are gonna be elite again, and they play a very manageable schedule.
32:58
And, you know, adding David Montgomery on offense, getting, uh, you know, potentially Tate Dowdle back, I think really adds to this offense. They can be at least above average.
33:08
Uh, I think they've got a shot to get theirs. And then the, you know, NFC, the Rams are kind of the clear and obvious choice. I ha- initially had San Francisco.
33:15
I actually have San Francisco winning the division and the Rams coming in second, but then the Rams making the Super Bowl, so a little bit of a quirk there.
33:22
Um, I, I just think at the end of the day, like, it'll take some time to gel.
33:26
I think the front part of the Rams' schedule is really brutal, especially from a travel perspective, and for an older team, you know, could cause some problems.
33:34
So I can see them having a little bit of a hiccup early, and then hitting their stride late, getting into the playoffs, and then making, making a run with the best roster in the NFL.
33:42
So, uh, I do have the Rams there, uh, from the NFC. Yeah, we were talking yesterday extensively about, uh, how they're choosing to travel to Australia, trying to just minimize jet lag by getting there late.
33:52
We'll see if that, uh, works out. One thing before the break here, we have a minute.
33:56
You, you, you casually threw in a little nugget there about Buffalo, and you had a, you had a section in your guide, which teams that made the playoffs last year do you expect to miss the sea- uh, to miss it this season.
34:06
And you said the Panthers and Steelers, and I think a lot of people hearing that would be, like, nodding their heads. "Okay, I could see both of those teams."
34:11
But as you continued, you did get to the Buffalo, and I think your sentence was, "I wouldn't be that shocked if they missed it." Yeah. I mean, I just think the roster is, is pretty poor, uh, uh, around Josh Allen.
34:26
They've got, I mean, D.J. Moore is kind of the big upgrade. He was a shell of himself last year. You know, he'll help, but, like, that's still a weak wide receiver corps.
34:34
Um, you know, you've got Joe Brady obviously taking over for Sean McDermott. Uh, defensively, you got Jim Leonard as a new DC.
34:40
I mean, they, no, no team had more turnover on defense from a snap pers- uh, percentage perspective than the Bills, and they didn't really add anybody that I would call, you know, say is a, a needle mover.
34:51
So they're really relying on a lot of young guys having to step up, especially in the secondary. So I'm dubious that they fix any of their, especially in the run, run defense perspective.
34:59
I think their defense will be, you know, you're gonna need a lot of work from, from Jim Leonard- Okay... to, to upgrade the defense. And then schedule-wise, I mean, it went from a top 10 easiest schedule last year.
35:09
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36:08
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin in the house.
36:27
And, uh, Cleve T.A. kind enough to join us for a, uh, second segment where he's rudely interrupted by commercials. My God. That's right. It's just not allowed.
36:35
Biggest takeaway from that first segment though, Gil, is that Josh Allen is the most valuable player in the history- I-... of football. [laughs]... was gonna ask you how you took that news. Yes.
36:44
Cleve, by the way, with his free 2026 NFL preview guide available at Cleve Analytics. That's C-L-E-V Analytics. Yes, he's from Cleveland, or he lives in Cleveland. CleveAnalytics, um, dot com.
36:57
And, uh, continue, by the way, finish your, your Bills thought if you would. I know you were, said something about schedule there at the end. Yeah, yeah.
37:05
So o- outside of the roster, just that, you know, they went from one of the 10 easiest schedules last year to, to one where 11 of the 17 teams they're, they're playing this year are favored to make the playoffs.
37:15
If you look at, they've got two really brutal stretches. So the first five weeks you got at Houston, Detroit, Chargers, New England, and the Rams. That's, that's a brutal way to start the season.
37:26
You get a little bit of a reprieve, but then from weeks 10 to 16, you've got the, um, one of the, the worst kind of rest situations in the entire NFL.
37:36
Um, I think 46 total rest days in seven weeks, which is the single toughest, um, stretch when you also consider who they're playing in that stretch. That's a bunch of playoff teams as well.
37:47
So I mean, they literally go from, like, a Sunday night to a, a Saturday, and then there's a Christmas game. Like, all different days of the week. It's a really, really tough s- s- tough stretch.
37:56
So you know, I, I just think it's a, it's a tough schedule to navigate. Obviously, they have the new home field, so that, you know, I don't know how that's gonna play out.
38:04
But, uh, I just think, you know, I know it, it's, it's tough to say outside of, you know, the best quarterback probably in the NFL in [laughs] Josh Allen, uh, things are not great for this team.
38:14
Uh, but, uh, he does so much to raise that floor that I, you know, if they don't make the playoffs, it wouldn't stun me, but also he's, like, Superman at this point.
38:23
So he's probably gonna carry them, uh, on his back and, you know, win their typical 11, 12 games and, and make the playoffs, but- By the-... it shouldn't be an easy stretch...
38:31
by the way, biggest takeaway from the first segment, Kelly, was that you tried to give away the survivor tool for free. Ri- that's right, yes. Yeah, yeah. That, uh, was the biggest takeaway. Quality promotion from Kelly.
38:38
[laughs] I don't wanna, I don't wanna give away everything that you have in the guide, but one more team question, because you, you go through a bunch of stuff.
38:46
You do, you know, based on, you look at headlines and current market win totals, which teams are you higher on than the market, which teams are you lower on than the market. That's all in the guide.
38:55
Just one last team question, which is you, you always mention since 2008, talking about betting lines here, at least one team has made the playoffs each season with a preflop, preflop number of plus 280 or longer.
39:08
If I recall correctly, last year that was the Tennessee Titans. Who would be your pick this year?
39:15
Well, last year was tough to, to find, um, a sleeper, and actually I think, uh, you know, this year I, I even write about it. I pick the Titans again. [laughs] And it's only because honestly the options are so limited.
39:28
I- Yes... I was talking to somebody, uh, last week- It's flat... at Bet Bash about how- Yeah... I think what's going on is Miami and the Cardinals are sucking out...
39:37
Like, they're s- lo- they're such long shots with their strength of schedule and how poor their, the rosters are.
39:42
They're such long shots to make the playoffs that they're flattening the odds a lot more towards the middle.
39:49
So normally you get a team like, you know, the Vikings or, you know, teams that are y- might normally be a little longer shots. Tho- those are, those teams are barely, you know, um, favored to miss the playoffs.
40:01
Like, you've gotten a lot, and even with the Seattle and New England last year at seven and a half and eight and a half, you know, uh, wins expected and, and them making the Super Bowl, I think a lot of people are starting to find those, you know, those New Orleans Saints of the world.
40:15
Like, the teams that, um, normally would much be longer shots are closer to, you know, even odds than you would expect. So to me, it, I tr- I pick the Titans again. [laughs] Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment.
40:27
Again, not that I expect it to happen. I actually am not predicting it, but if I had to pick one of these longer shots, I went with them.
40:33
Just, you know, you get Brian Daboll in there to help Cam Ward maybe get the one-year bump. Um, they add Wandale Robinson, Carnell Tate on offense, you know, real weapons.
40:42
And defensively, Robert Saleh, we know he may not be a great head coach, but we know he can coach defense. Um, you know, they, they might have enough defensively to, to main things, maintain things.
40:52
And then, you know, the schedule went from the single toughest last year to one that should be much easier, uh, you would expect this year with a last place schedule.
41:00
So I pick the Titans, but I don't feel confident this year. I usually have a, a strong sleeper, um, and I don't feel confident. I do think the Jets are gonna be really scrappy. Mm.
41:09
And if you wanna ask me what was the single most surprising kind of team chapter, it was the Jets. You can read all about that, but there's so many interesting factors for them. Uh, I think they'll be better.
41:19
I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but, you know, that is one, if you really wanna go deep, um, amongst the really bad teams, that one would be the team that I think, uh, has some level of a, um, of a chance to be scrappy at least.
41:33
Every week that goes by I'm getting higher and higher on the Jets, and it's a, it's not a good feeling. Yeah. It's not a good feeling. And by the way, it was terrible of me.
41:39
I highlighted the Titan, that he picked the Titans last year, but you had a lot of great calls last year, and in previous years too.
41:44
Uh, LFC Title Records asks on Twitter, "Can we get Cleve's opinion on the Browns win total of five and a half?" Uh, he says he's pounding the under. What do you think about the Browns?
41:56
Yeah, it's, uh, I think the number's right on. I have them right around six wins. I think that the talent, um, you know, they've really upgraded from, from the draft the last two years.
42:04
They've got really good talent, and it sounds like by all accounts that their two young wide receivers, Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion, are, are playing really well.
42:13
Like, they're legit starters in this league, uh, along with Harold Fannin. You've got, you know, you've got makings of a solid offense.
42:19
Obviously, the quarterback situation is, uh, the big, uh, question mark, and Deshaun Watson is favored, uh, uh, from all accounts. Sounds like he's going to be starting. So who knows how that goes.
42:30
But- Uh, I just, I think the talent is, is just upgraded.
42:34
The defense obviously takes a hit without Myles Garrett, but they still have, you know, Jared Verse is not a, you know, he, he's, he's not Myles Garrett, but he's still one of the top, call it 12 to 15 pass rushers in this league.
42:45
So I think they've got enough defensively to, to keep them in games. And, you know, I, I think the schedule should be fairly, um, soft. So I don't know.
42:56
Uh, this is a team that i- you know, is really banking on next year being, uh, where they get their quarterback of the future, two first round picks.
43:04
So, you know, you, you kind of bump into that thing where how much are they really gonna wanna win at the end of the year? Are they gonna sit some of these, some of their starters late?
43:12
That causes some issues with the win total. So, um, you know, I'm right on the number. I don't think there's really much value either way.
43:18
I think they're better than most, um, consider, um, after the Myles Garrett trade, but I, I wouldn't. I, I think their window is pretty narrow.
43:27
I think five to seven is really, like, uh, there, there's not a lot of volatility, uh, either way because of, uh, the talent, but then also bumping into, you know, expectations for the team going forward.
43:39
Uh, let's talk some awards. I noticed you did every award. I noticed you [laughs], you did not do Comeback Player of the Year, I don't believe, in the guide. I don't think you wanted to be part of that. Is that true?
43:48
I did not. Yeah. I don't wanna dabble in that market, to be honest. Yeah. It's, it's really tough. Uh, let's talk about a couple. Let's do MVP first. You have Drake May as your number one choice.
43:59
Yeah, I'm actually surprised his number is, is as low as it is, um, double digits. He's behind, like, Justin Herbert, which I don't understand at all.
44:06
Like, I, I get that Mike McDaniel, um, is a big upgrade, but, like, that's still a big leap. Drake May should've won the MVP last year.
44:13
Anyone, uh, I think that pays attention to the numbers, and look at the surrounding talent he had versus what, uh, Stafford had, uh, with, between coaching and, and Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, et cetera.
44:24
I think Drake May did way more with, with, uh, much less. So to get him at double digits, I think, uh, is, is a nice bargain.
44:31
You know, and we've gone through all the, I know you've talked about all the different, uh, profile of winners.
44:36
Um, you can, you can see, uh, on the, uh, in the preview and obviously on your show we've talked about a number of times.
44:42
He, he checks all those boxes, and I think it's pretty interesting that, you know, lately it hasn't been any of the teams with the, the biggest win totals or the, the teams with the highest expectations to ma- to, to win the Super Bowl that have won MVP.
44:56
It's, like, kind of that second tier of quarterbacks that are winning. It's, like, outside of the top five when it comes to playoff odds. It's, it's interesting.
45:04
It's like you've got to be good, but not kind of the, uh, elite expected team, um, to win it all.
45:10
Those are the, that's where the, kind of the, the, the bucket of quarterbacks have won the most recently from, from MVP, and he's kind of sticks out, uh, in that as well.
45:18
So I think Drake May is, um, I think he's a really good quarterback. You add A.J.
45:22
Brown, Romeo Doubs, an improved offensive line, I think he's gonna put up big numbers again, and I think he's, um, he's my favorite at this number. At this number, and you also mentioned Brock Purdy at his number.
45:32
So Drake May, 10 to 1, Brock Purdy, 18 to 1, uh, your best bets for that. Let's do one more. We have 60 seconds here. Coach of the Year I thought was pretty interesting. Who'd you end up with there?
45:44
So I took Brian Schottenheimer.
45:45
Doesn't totally fit the, the historical narrative, um, of kind of the really bad team that, uh, improves or jumps up a bunch of wins, but I mean, they were seven and nine last year, Dallas.
45:54
Look, if this team gets to 11, 12 wins, it doesn't take much for the media to over-hype a, a Dallas c- head coach. And I actually was impressed with what Schottenheimer put together last year.
46:03
I thought he did a nice job with that offense. Um, you know, improving on the defense, uh, through the draft, uh, and obviously adding Rashan Gary as well.
46:11
You know, this doesn't have to be a great defense for them to improve four or five wins. So I think at this number it's interesting.
46:17
I also had Kyle Shanahan [laughs] as a long shot, which again, doesn't fit the historical narrative, but because of his car accident and maybe he gets that narrative if they win the NFC West- Oh, interesting...
46:26
um, at a long shot could be worth a look. So those are two that I like. Unless Tony Farmer puts him in jail beforehand, then that's a pretty, no, that's another thing. [laughs] That's a whole 'nother thing.
46:34
Cleve, I'm sorry I missed you last week, my man. Thank you so much for the time. It's Cleve T.A., cleveanalytics.com. That's C-L-E-V-E analytics.com is where you can access his Pro Football Preview Guide.
46:45
On Twitter, of course, it's Cleve T.A., C-L-E-V-T-A. Thank you so much, man, and we'll get you on the Megapod this year again. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. My man, Cleve T.A., the best in the biz- Oh...
46:57
on the football side of things. So good. Bart Borcher, baseball next
A Numbers Game
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