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Aug 11, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 11, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 11, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
47:13
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
0:16
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, Let's Go Places. The numbers told the story.
1:02
They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Midland. Hello. I'm way behind on tweets.
1:19
You know how people give me, uh, crapola for reading tweets? Mm-hmm. Maybe you don't get as many tweets as we do. Sorry. Maybe. Sorry, maybe I just lashed out. Uh, New Jersey, New York.
1:29
Mark, Mark Borchardt standing by to talk baseball with us. New Jersey, New York, GV: "Uh, regarding the start of your, uh, Red Sox Blue Jays explainer, my dad kind of has the perfect way to explain baseball.
1:38
No other sport has a list of rules where every rule has an exception, and every exception of that rule has an exception to the exception. We will keep seeing them." Absolutely.
1:45
Anthony Salvato: "As far as players knowing rules, if umps declared runner scores, then they'd at least had a chance to appeal third. 15 minutes on a call to New York. Geez.
1:53
By the way, Monasterio on third base was told by the coach one out." Oh, so he had [laughs] he had no excuse. Yeah.
2:00
Chris Heath: "I love how Dustin constantly references wrestling, but when asked if he watches, he responds, 'No, I'm not in seventh grade.'" [laughs] Okay, that is such a great call-out. Love, love Dustin.
2:10
I, I might not have directly called that out- Yeah... a- as clearly as that tweet just did, but I was confused by it.
2:17
He kept making wrestling references, but then it was asked once or twice who he like, you know, what, what does he watch now, and he's like, "I don't watch wrestling."
2:23
Dustin's parents when he was watching wrestling in sixth grade, like, "What are you doing?" [laughs] I think that's how his parents felt. Brian Point Shafer: "Find someone that loves you like Gil loves Ziga."
2:32
You c- say that again. Three Jacques, 3131: "Ah, yes, the infamous fourth out to go along with the fifth ball, fourth strike." [laughs] Third... Can I say that on air? I don't think I can.
2:42
[laughs] And of course, the fumble in the end zone equals touchback rule, all of life's great mysteries. Oh, man. Very true.
2:48
And then Patrick Kelly: "Uh, in baseball, isn't the fourth out most times a swung third strike, not caught, batter goes to first, the next batter's out?" Yes. Yeah, right, yes.
2:57
And finally here, I'll, 'cause I'll, I want to talk to Borchardt here, but he says, Steve Gronewold, "I am 58 years old, and I heard you mention the Yacht Rock album from Keith Urban on yesterday's show.
3:06
I have to wholeheartedly agree that he did an amazing job. You never know what you'll get on a Numbers Game. Welcome back from your vacation." Yeah, man, it's great. Golf handicapping yesterday.
3:15
I want to say I went, I made it through at least half the album. It's spectacular. Good shout-out. It was a good, it was a good, uh- He, he does it so lovingly... good one from you.
3:22
You know who, uh, does baseball lovingly? This guy. Mark Borchardt, uh, base winner, who's on the road today just outside of Whitefish, Montana, joining us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
3:33
Mark, thanks for the effort, man. Appreciate it. Gil, I wouldn't miss it for the world. Actually, I would if I was driving with two dogs for 20 hours last week. [laughs] Oh, man. But, uh, glad to, glad to have you back.
3:45
And I, you know what? I haven't been able to congratulate you on your month-long with Boston. Thank you, sir. What, that's gotta be a play of a lifetime.
3:52
I was telling Kelly, I think you probably have, like, 20 years of monthly betting before, you know, the break even hits at 80 to 1. I, I don't know, maybe the math's wrong on that, Gil. No, that's probably true. Yeah.
4:02
That's why, that's why I was like the, the guy who, uh, tweeted after the first day, the Red Sox lost the first day of July by eight runs, and he sarcastically was like, "Yeah, Gil's monthly play off to a blazing start."
4:11
[laughs] And I was like, "That dude," I was like, "You c- you should take a break for 80 months now because there's nothing you can say." Yeah, no, I appreciate it.
4:18
It, it was a, it just worked out as perfectly as you would want all of your bets to ever work out. We'll see if we can't do it with Detroit again here in August. Have you done your, uh, August simulations at all?
4:29
Yeah, man. And you know, I've, I've, I've really kind of delved into it. You can go to my site. You can read the division odds, not only the division odds, but the, um, or the, or the, or the regular, the whole odds.
4:41
B- but DraftKings doing division, by division odds- Yes... the month of August. Yes. And I, that's so intriguing.
4:46
And I have all these, these odds, uh, processed, and, and I, I updated it today, so I'm probably gonna put a, a, a, a post up there about the division odds.
4:55
But if you're looking at, like, the overall odds, I know you have Detroit, and, uh, I've got Philly. So, so I'm looking at Philly right now, plus 800. I've got them plus 336, and I, so there's still value. Yes. Hmm.
5:07
And, uh, that's the team I mean. It, it really, like, changes your whole perspective. I, I love this. Yes.
5:13
I'm so happy they did this because it gives you, what, I guess you're six months in the baseball season, last I checked. And, uh, it gives you six shots at it, and it's really, really fun, and it's fun to handicap, too.
5:24
So, so check out my site. I think I'm gonna probably have a, a division odds update, and I'll, maybe I'll do the league, uh, the, the overall odds as well today, Gil. I cannot r- I, I want to echo what you just said.
5:35
The, the monthly markets, yes, we've won a couple now, including the big one last month.
5:40
But the monthly markets have allowed me, and this speaks to you, you, you and I have been following baseball and handicapping baseball since the dawn of time.
5:50
And after years and years and years of doing that, you are a human being. You're going to run into a wa- the game changes for me. I stopped doing daily baseball.
5:59
And it's tough then to sort of process a 162-game schedule. This was the perfect tonic for that. It immediately broke up the season so perfectly into ways that I could not only digest it...
6:12
and learn, but also love it again in a different way. Not that I fell out of love with it, but it rekindled the love for it.
6:19
So I just, I can't recommend it more even beyond betting what, what the monthly perspective does. What did you, uh, what did you land on today?
6:28
Well, today I'm gonna, I'm gonna talk about this Toronto team because I think that they're showing value in the, the, uh, futures markets as well. Uh, but today I really like them.
6:39
I, I've got them, uh, it's an interesting play for me.
6:41
I've got them on a run line minus one and a half plus 147, but I also have the under seven, and, uh, if you're looking at, uh, at Dylan Cease, I, I think that he's got to be the front runner, Gil, at least, uh, by my numbers to, to win, uh, the AL Cy Young.
6:58
And then, you know, they, they really still their, their lineup is, is, is not great. They got rid of a couple pieces, but they're like 15th in baseball, and then the bullpen I have for Toronto, sixth in baseball.
7:09
So I, I wanna just check real fast because I, I'm, I'm, I'm flipping around here, Gil, on my laptop, and it's a little bit different for me.
7:15
But I have them, uh, 20% to make the playoffs, so plus 382, and I think that they're at DraftKings at plus 550.
7:23
So I think that that's a pretty, uh, good opportunity to get an underdog, uh, with a, with a decent chance, a 20% chance at plus 550. And, and you look at, and they picked up Soriano, which was a weird trade.
7:35
I don't know what you, what your thoughts were about that trade. It was a weird trade that, that, that they ended up upgrading. Yeah.
7:40
So I think you got a good one-two, Dylan Cease, your Savage is good and, and, uh, you know, you've got three pitchers that are, that are, uh, quality pitchers there.
7:48
And so I think that's a pretty good futures play as well. Plus 550 to make the playoffs on the Toronto Blue Jays. It's interesting, a lot of these teams, I, I-- By the way, Soriano was this early season- Mm-hmm...
7:59
Cy Young play for a lot of people, and I pointed out at the time like, "He's ni- he has a 95% strand rate. Like, this is not gonna last." Uh, and it didn't. But yeah, that's a, it's definitely an upgrade for them.
8:09
Um, but I think like even Detroit, right? With w- it's, they, they trade Schoop, they trade Mize, and everyone just assumes again like, "Well, they're giving up." No, no, no, no. It's like sneaky.
8:20
They get Joba back from an injury. He was hitting triple digits on the, on the gun the other day.
8:25
Um, Melton, while being very fortunate, has pitched great for the Tigers, and obviously Valdez, if you ever get Framber to do his thing.
8:34
So it's like these, these teams under the radar, like there's always a way that it breaks completely well for you and breaks completely poorly in that spectrum.
8:41
And so if it breaks well for any of these teams, it could go very well, to your point about the Blue Jays. No, no parlay of the day from Base Winner? Is, are we deprived of that? Like, you know what?
8:50
I'm gonna go with the, I'll give you, I'll give you the parlay 'cause, 'cause it's just, it's your first day back after- Thank you [laughs]... what seems like, uh, months off, Gil. Like, you know? Months.
8:58
Yeah, I'm gonna go with, uh, with Ari- [laughs] I'm gonna go with Arizona Dodgers. And, uh, it's, it's basically a little bit better than even money.
9:05
But, uh, I'm looking at Arizona today and, and, uh, they've got a guy, you're gonna love this one, Mitch Bratt, Gil. Oh, yeah. And every time I look at this guy, I'm thinking Funkdefied, Debrat, 1994. Debrat.
9:19
What do you know about that, Kelly? Nothing.
9:20
Um, and, and, and I thought, you know, I thought Dustin was gonna be on the show today, and I thought, "Well, you know, I wish Gil was on the show 'cause maybe you had Debrat in the studio." I did. 1994, Funkdefied.
9:29
I did. I met Debrat, yeah. I bet. Oh, and, and so that song, so I listened to the song a little bit today. It's a great song. Really good.
9:37
I, I don't know Big Poppa, and they use the same Isley Brothers, uh, you know, uh, sample. I, I think Debrat might be a little bit better. But you're looking at Debrat, he's a lot better pitcher today.
9:46
You're looking at Mitch Bratt today. [laughs] A lot better pitcher. I've got the game priced at minus 201, and then, and then Snell makes his return. I've got the Dodgers heavy favorite.
9:55
Even min- they're minus 265 in the market. I think it should be over minus 300. And so put them together in a parlay. Uh, it's plus 120, Gil. There you go.
10:04
You had Mark Borchardt with a Funkdefied Debrat reference on the show today? I did not, Gil, but I'm never gonna rule Mark Borchardt out from, uh, making a solid, uh, music reference. Okay?
10:12
We- Wes Reynolds, the ball is in your court. Now- This is, it's a battle... I wanna let you know, if I was in my studio, I could probably rap something about this parlay to the Debrat. Yeah.
10:21
And that would be really epic. But, but I'm, you know, since I'm on the road, I, I figured I'd, I'd, you know, the degree of difficulty would be tough on that, Gil. I love it. Yeah, you're on vacation.
10:29
Take it easy, Mark. You're right. By the way, Fu- Funkdefied still stands the test of time. Sounds good.
10:33
By the way, about the Diamondbacks, um, not a, not a person who usually puts out great tweets, but he has a, he has a point on this one. Um, Felika just texted me this and Will, which is...
10:44
Oh, and in the group chat with Fez and, uh, Todd also.
10:46
Bob Nightingale, "The Diamondbacks," your Diamondbacks who you just mentioned in your parlay, "battling for a wildcard berth, are 14 and 3 this season against the Rockies and the Giants," so they're feasting on the bad.
10:56
"They also still have nine games remaining against the Rockies and the Giants, um, who are a combined 48 games below.500." Advantage Diamondbacks. Do you like them as a playoff bet?
11:10
I don't, which is really weird because I've be- I've been so high on them- Yes, you have... to make the playoffs, Gil.
11:14
But, but if you're looking at, at, uh, a playoff percentage for me, it's 35% plus 182, and I, so I think that the, the market value is actually the other way to bet the no.
11:25
But one of the things I did touch upon was Lovullo, and if you remember the, the show that we did, uh, uh, for, for VSiN, I, Lovullo was my manager of the year at 22 to 1, and if he can do it with this component, you know, they, they're starting pitching's like 25th to me.
11:40
Uh, the offense is decent, but 10 to 12. And so he's been doing it with smoke and mirrors, and I think Lovullo is, is been really under- undervalued there. Uh, for, for me, he should be the, the manager of the year.
11:51
But to make the playoffs, I, I'm not showing value on him, Gil. Dodgers still winning this whole thing once the playoffs start? I ye- I think that they will.
12:01
Um, you know, I, I think that when I did the simulations yesterday, the Yankees actually showed really good value winning the American League. Mm.
12:11
And if you look at their pitching I talk about a, a top three, boom, boom, boom, and you've got that. So I think that, that, that one...
12:18
And, and again, that's a, that's a health thing because, you know, Bellinger with the hamstring, then you've got St- Stanton, who knows, and then Judge, of course. Um, so you have- Yeah... you have those health issues.
12:27
But I think if, if everything goes good for them, I think the Yankees to win that, that AL, that, that- I- I think I... Plus 100, right, to me. I so agree with you about the Yankees, though,
12:37
being the, the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear. It all comes down to when does Judge come back? Sooner the better, obviously, but they are stacked when fully healthy. Thank you, Mark.
12:46
Thank you for Funkified as well. Mark Borchardt, everybody. Baseball- Yeah, my pleasure... coming back on The Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:55
But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
13:06
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
13:19
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:25
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
13:32
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:38
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:45
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:55
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
14:03
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
14:16
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. [laughs] Kelly Bidlin hates Little League baseball.
14:33
[laughs] Football is back, and some of the best betting opportunities of the year start with the NFL preseason. Sign up for VSiN Pro today.
14:38
Get both our NFL and college football betting guides packed, and I mean packed, with team previews, power ratings, proven betting systems, and best bets from VSiN's sharpest minds.
14:46
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14:57
Start today for just $9.99, or get a full year, save 50, uh, 50%, pardon me, with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now.
15:06
We have a, uh, TV in the studio, and, uh, both yesterday morning and this morning, it was tuned into, you still say tuned into? Uh- Sure... the Little League World Series.
15:16
And, uh, yesterday Kelly was basically shouting at Danny Higgins, "Get this crap off the TV," 'cause Kelly rules this studio like an emperor.
15:24
And then today it's, I guess DC was playing Pennsylvania, and this, this 11-year-old kid, Everett Choi, is on the hill, and, and Kelly is shouting at Danny again to get this thing off the television.
15:34
That's how it's wor- that's how it's working, just me always yelling at Danny. No, no, this is, Danny and I got onto it a little bit when this first started 'cause Danny's very pro Little League World Series.
15:42
Hey, I, it's awesome. It's, it's, what a dream for these kids, right? It, I, I can, I can get behind that. Hmm. But when we're doing a show, I would like informational television off to the side.
15:51
Maybe I wanna see what kind of stuff Everett Choi has. Yeah. Five foot two inch Everett Choi. But NFL Network's Patriot stats from last year would be better for you. Hmm. We got tweets. Tim Bowers is a Tigers fan.
16:01
I love these Tigers guys. Remember the, I got a bunch of tweets. Do you know Terrance Gore got traded, right? Oh, but there were, there were multiple people that were concerned about your sanity after that bet.
16:10
And then by the way, I told you I responded to one of them, "Oh, no, that can't be true," and he actually responded back like I was being serious. I'm like, okay. Uh, dude, there, there, it was like loving concern.
16:19
Like, I'm ta- I'm talking like- He's still okay... like tweeters you would recognize- Yeah... that clearly left you off the tweet just to be like, "Hey, Kelly, like, he, he's okay, right?" Like.
16:27
Well, they, they clearly didn't see me talk about it. I know. That was the best part. I'm like, yeah, you just listen back to it. Tim Bowers: "As a Tigers fan, you should know, one, rain forecasted this week."
16:35
Oh, that's not good. "Two, Tigers have around 27 blown saves." Yeah, I'm aware. "Three, Cleveland just has their number. In 13 games last year, Tigers scored 34 runs versus them.
16:46
They're 0 and 6 versus them this year, and on pace to score 24 runs versus them." Yeah, I don't buy into that stuff so much. Michael Salvino: "Gil, welcome back." Thank you, Michael. Uh, [laughs]
16:57
DrActorKJ: "Gorillas, shorter legs and muscular frame, have to waddle on legs, causing arms to swing wider. Spider monkeys, having long, thin legs and," uh, what is it? "Prehensile tail acting-" Prehensile tail.
17:11
[laughs] "... as a third leg, are able to propel themselves forward on two legs more easily without needing to waddle. #biologynerd." All right, besides the tail- KJ-... it still all checks out, man.
17:21
KJ, you can tweet every day, every hour with all your stuff. For real. There, there's a lot more- Yeah... waddling going on back in the day. Any breakdown of that kind of stuff I enjoy.
17:30
Uh, HoopsByHoots: "Coming from an umpire, the easiest way to think about a fourth out appeal is whatever is most advantageous for the defense. Another scenario where this would come into play would be missed bases.
17:39
Scenario of bases loaded, two outs, and a grand slam is hit." God, God bless everybody, like all the- Yeah. Yeah, uh, the, there's just the Little Leaguers playing today. Yeah.
17:47
You don't, you don't think every, every coach is bringing this note up before the games? Oh, God, what a miserable meeting that is to sit through. One more.
17:54
Ryan McKinney: "Gil, any thoughts of using your Red Sox most wins winnings towards an entry in Grandissimo?
17:59
Not only do I think you'd have a legitimate shot to win, but imagine the great radio it would produce for the coming months." [laughs] Oh, it'd produce great radio all right. I don't even know.
18:07
Hey, man, this is- Gil, you got knocked out in the first round. How do you feel? Yeah, like- First week, how do you feel? Gil already takes Survivor about as serious as anybody I know. Yeah.
18:16
I don't know that I wanna be sitting next to him for how many, uh, weeks, how many months of, uh, sweating out a Grandissimo. I don't need that. I don't need that kind of anxiety.
18:23
I got a couple pr- uh, NFL training camp notes for you real quick. Mike Vrabel said at a press conference today that Drake May Will not play in the first pre-season game. That number has moved a bit.
18:35
Colts were catching a point and a half. They're now laying two and a half at the Patriots. That game is on Thursday. LaFleur says Jordan Love plans to play in the pre-season opener.
18:45
Packers move from a point and a half favorite to a- Hmm... a point and a half, or sorry, point and a half dog to a point and a half favorite at the Steelers.
18:51
And the Jags will not play their starters in the first pre-season game. They go from a one and a half point favorite to a three-point dog at New Orleans.
18:58
Hope you listened to the show yesterday about, again, all the, all the things about getting ahead of moves in pre-season football, and even if you're behind the moves. This is why I'm just gonna keep- Yeah...
19:06
throwing these out- Keep doing it... because we keep getting this new- the news like this in these- Yep... mornings right when we're on air, and these numbers keep moving.
19:13
And, like, like I added another bet today, Packers. Speaking of Survivor, which we just talked about with Cleve, we talked about, um, just moments ago with, uh, Grandisimo, let's just do our yearly- Mm-hmm...
19:24
Survivor primer. For those who may never have played Survivor before, just your, your basic tenets of Survivor. Um, I always start by saying the game is misnamed. The object is not to survive.
19:37
You have to fight the instinct. We are human beings, and our brains are wired to last as long as we can in Survivor because it's fun to play. And when we're here, we get to talk about it all the time, right?
19:46
And you wanna be in it as long as possible, but the object is to win. And what I mean, so the game is misnamed, and it makes you think that the object is to survive. No, the game at some point...
19:55
In other words, you shouldn't just take the biggest favorite every week and think that that's the way you play, is what I'm trying to say.
20:00
At some point, you have to play strategically and put yourself out there, if you will, and take risks. Um, the object is to win, not survive. It's called the illusion of false hope.
20:10
By the way, can, uh, shout out to Tom Federico, Jason Lisk over at, uh, Team Rankings, and, um, Jason Lisk's- A great group... Bet Labs- Yeah... do just a great job about Survivor primers through the years.
20:23
Um, know the size of your pool. That's always gonna matter. In other words, the s- the smaller the pool, the less risk you have to take. The larger the pool, the more at some point you have to take.
20:34
That's just like daily DFS basic strategy. Know your specific pool rules. We alluded to that with, with, uh, Cleve, who's, again, Optimizer.
20:43
You can actually toggle between, toggle between rules of different Survivor contests. Circa, there is a Thanksgiving and Christmas quirk. Those act as their own weeks, mini weeks.
20:54
Um, whereas in the Splash contest, you have to do double entries in multiple weeks. So you have to know the rules. You can't start Circa Survivor without paying attention to Thanksgiving and Christmas.
21:05
If you played it without that knowledge, you ain't doing it correct, right? So you have to know the rules of your pool. Cleve alluded to this. This is the biggest thing, future value.
21:14
Future value is maybe one of the bigger determinants in everything you do in Survivor. Um, it's about future schedule, right?
21:24
So the Chargers are not only a huge favorite, the biggest favorite on the board in week one, but it's also great to know that the Chargers, after week two, the schedule gets way harder.
21:35
So it makes the Chargers in weeks one or two that much more, um, appealing of a play. But of course, you also wanna know what the full pool is playing, so you have to consider that.
21:48
Yes, they don't have much better future value than playing them here, but do I want to play them when so many others are gonna play them in ca- in case there's a major upset? There's all these kinds of factors- Mm-hmm.
22:02
Great example... that you have to consider when playing Circa Survivor. Um- I mean, that one's a great example, 'cause I don't like- It's a great example... I don't know how often we see that with...
22:11
Yeah, like, I mean, what percentage through the first two weeks it's gonna be heavy. Oh, it's gonna be a lot. Heavy Chargers. I mean, and honestly, Gil, it's one of the few notes I've made already of- Yeah...
22:19
like you're probably using the Char- Chargers in the first two weeks of every entry that you have. And Kelly, we've never seen that franchise lose a game they're supposed to win. [laughs] Not, not at all. Never.
22:28
But like just the, the future value, right, of, of not knowing, right? Right. You don't know. You don't know what the Chargers could turn into down the road, that their opponents could turn into.
22:36
If you save them, there is a chance, and in the NFL, a, a decent-sized chance, right, that an opponent shows up down the road where you're able to take the Chargers when almost nobody else is.
22:46
And, and I think one of the biggest points that doesn't really get addressed necessarily when people talk about Survivor is often the best option every week in Survivor is taking the team
22:59
that is a big favorite, but just a few percentage points lower in win probability than the most popular. Hmm. That's probably the optimum, generally speaking. It's not gonna be the case every week.
23:11
But generally speaking, that's sort of the North Star you're looking for. It's a good call. Yep. Um, and then I do wanna dispel- 'Cause then you're just, then you're on a big favorite, right?
23:19
But you're just not on the most popular- Correct... selection that week. Correct. Most likely. Yeah. Most likely. Not that that's foolproof. Hmm. None of this is, [laughs] right?
23:26
That could go down, that could go down spectacularly in flames too, but, you know, just wanna point that out. That, that's a good guide for, for in general, for a week-to-week basis.
23:35
And, and then there's a couple, closing, there's a couple things. Some things are true, right? There are things that are true, and then there are things that are myths. Road, uh, here's something that's true.
23:43
Road favorites do lose more than home favorites, okay? That's something that is true that people banty about. Yep. You know what isn't? We talk about this every year. This notion that you don't wanna play division games.
23:55
"Oh, I, I'd play this team. They're a big favorite, but Kelly, it's a division game. I don't wanna trust that." Ah, division opponent just knows them better. Ooh, we can't do that.
24:02
Well, we've thrown this out for a few years. Mm-hmm. I haven't updated them, but this is from 2000 to 2023. Shout out Federico and Lisk for putting this together. Guess what, guys? Um,
24:15
over the last, over, over that 23-year span, with sample sizes of over 1,000 games in each of these categories here, or e- or 1,000 games total in this whole endeavor, division rivalry games have resulted in fewer upsets among likely Survivor picks than non-division games have.
24:33
They've even broken it down in terms of point differential in the spread, from five to six and a half points, seven to eight and a half points, different categories. Overall, you see at the bottom, division games,
24:43
77.5%, non-division, 75.5%. In other words, in the division games, the r- the favorite manifests even greater.
24:52
And you see in each of those categories, Kelly, the only one where that's not the case is the nine to ten and a half point category, where the non-division games slightly, the, uh, slightly- Yeah...
25:05
come in at a higher rate than the division ones. But generally speaking, that is an out-and-out myth in Survivor. Mm-hmm. Still, it's a division game. You can still play it. Don't be scared. Don't be screwed.
25:16
Coming back on a numbers game right here at VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSIN, the Sports Betting Network.
25:29
Don't forget about the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, alerts directly from the pros.
25:37
Scan that QR code on your screen for more information, sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander, we get tweets, beating the book, Jesse Welch.
25:44
It's a few days old now, but I just got around to listening, but this most recent Pablo Finds Out pod- Oh... was something. Pablo Torre. We talking about Kawhi? Yeah, man, like part 13.
25:55
Oh, he has just been all over this. We're, we're at a point, though, so I don't know how you, 'cause you, you've listened to a ton of them. I don't know if you're fully caught up. The...
26:03
And I could spend, like, 15 minutes on this. I, I think we're at a point where we're gonna start asking the...
26:08
The questions are gonna start to be asked about is this just an isolated Clippers-Kawhi thing going on in the NBA- Yeah... or are there others? Great point.
26:17
'Cause it is the, there, there- What, what Kelly is referring to, for those who don't know, is the circumvention of salary cap. Salary cap, yeah, to pay Kawhi Leonard- Yeah... to stay in LA, in it allegedly.
26:29
And this is, the, it's now, Pablo's now tied in three different companies that have been attached to this. Right. And when you start hearing things like that- Dat, Dattronics was the last or something like that, yeah...
26:38
yeah, it's like, okay, if one team's doing this with three different companies- Wow... what's to stop any other team? Well, if they only had a b- living, breathing commissioner, maybe they could do something about it.
26:48
It's pretty bad. Billy Charlebois, "Looking forward to the upcoming Las Vegas residency of Barry White, the Wizard of Oz, and Cleve T. A. coming up at The Sphere. I'd listen to this Cleve T. A.
26:57
guy read directions for building an IKEA bed. Holy golden voice." [laughs] Yeah, he said he was, uh, he was, uh, like his raspy, tired voice from BetBash. Yeah. He sounded fantastic. "Bet your boots off.
27:09
Fellas, I'm dying over here because I have a few Sonny Gray/Cy Young tickets. The odds range from 75 to 1 all the way to 120 to 1. Been watching him slowly climb the ladder all season.
27:17
I could really use a bad game from Ceas tonight." Yeah, you could.
27:21
And 3JackH3131, 3Jacques, "Gil, ruling the Giants and Chargers out for Survivor week one based entirely on the fact that Darden Herbert have their super hot girlfriends at camp.
27:31
Ask Lombardi how that's working out for Belichick at UNC." Yeah, I'll be, I'll be sure to pick up the phone and ask him. Oh, man.
27:38
And 3Jacques also adds, "Gil, if you're having trouble keeping up with tweets, should we send you an email? How about a s- how about a Snapchat? What's your pager number?" Yeah, no, no.
27:45
[laughs] Just, yeah, hit me on the hip with a pager. No, no, no, please, just tweets. I'll get to them all, I promise.
27:51
Uh, I was, uh, upset that I wasn't at BetBash last week 'cause I didn't get to hang out with, with everybody, like Cleve. Mm-hmm.
27:56
Also didn't get to hang out with Drew Ditzik, who I'm hearing from multiple sources has been dispensing hugs. Cleve said he hugged him. Uh, Will said Drew gave a big hug. [laughs] I've known Drew for a decade.
28:06
I've never gotten a hug from Drew Ditzik. There's Drew. Let's show this picture. Look at this. This is Kelly, Matt Brown- Dinner Friday night, man.
28:12
[laughs] And the, uh, and the two, uh, stars of the Deep Dive podcast, our Drew Ditzik on the left and our Andy Molitor on the right. Right. Look at the four of you guys. Where were you guys at? Right there.
28:21
We were over at Oscars. Oh, that's right. Ne- I had never eaten there before, by the way. Great hamburger. Yeah, we, I had steak. Should have ordered the burger.
28:28
Drew Ditzik joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, the host of the Deep Dive and, of course, Bet The Edge podcast. What's happening, man? Oh, nothing bad. Yeah, Oscars, uh, delivered.
28:38
Um, I got, uh, uh, the, uh, braised short rib with a little bit of a m- medallion of foie gras on it. Oh, good. Uh, so tender. You just kinda, like, poked it with the fork and it just fell apart. This guy.
28:49
Uh, it was outstanding. We got the, we got the magnum of, uh, 2023 Napa Cab. Uh, it was excellent, so yeah, all together it was this outstanding dinner.
28:59
Although, I don't know if you, Kelly told you this story, but, uh, he lost cr- credit card roulette. [laughs] It was, uh- Oh, he did not... it was a tough pull. [laughs] You know what? There was a follow-up.
29:08
Well, we just did it w- just the tip, just the tip. Yeah, just the tip, uh, for the dinner. But, uh, I, did I also screw up the tip, Drew? I think that was also something.
29:17
I think Matt called me out on screwing up the tip. I don't recall. [laughs] Okay. All right, yeah. I hope no one tuned into the show right before you said, "Just the tip," so.
29:25
Yeah, I did, that's why I made sure to say it a few times. Yeah. [laughs] Um, Drew, uh, I also got nothing but rave reviews for- Yes...
29:32
your tennis seminar, which not only was Kelly in attendance for, Joe Peta texted me about it. Uh- Mm. P- Preston showed up in the middle of it, I'm told as well. [laughs] Yes. Preston Johnson.
29:42
Preston Johnson, a surprise middle appearance, yeah. So kudos to you, man. Yeah. You had fun doing it? Uh, oh, yeah, absolutely.
29:49
Um, the, uh, you never really know, uh, what the attendance is gonna be like for a seminar 'cause, you know, as you kind of alluded to, BetBash is whatever you make of it, and a lot of times, you know, afternoon on day two, uh, people are kinda winding down.
30:06
Um, but we had, uh, outstanding attendance for the tennis betting seminar. Um, it was genuine enthusiasm- Yes... from a lot of young players- Love... um, to kind of try to understand tennis better.
30:20
Um, the, um, you know, we prepared about 50 minutes of mater- Say we, uh, my, myself and the co-host, Tim Dennis, who came all the way over from London to talk tennis at BetBash.
30:29
Um, you know, we prepared about 50 minutes of content for the people, left about 10 minutes, uh, of time at the end for Q&A. Um, got an hour of questions.
30:39
Uh, and just kind of ripped, uh, ripped on, you know, live betting strategies and, uh, you know, market observations and, uh, you know, pe- people were, uh, asking all of the right questions.
30:51
Um, and I guess my g- my underlying kind of read was people saw what I saw at Wimbledon, which was $100 million matched in running- Mm-hmm...
31:01
in a, you know, a quarterfinal match, and they're, they're just like, "Wow, well, uh, if this is the ti- kind of liquidity we're talking about for in-running tennis, then, uh, I better get, uh, I better get familiar."
31:12
Um, and you know, so for, for that reason, I think, um, you know, it was, it was a, a pretty successful endeavor.
31:19
Um, met a lot of nice people, um, learned some new tennis betting strategies myself, and, uh, and yeah, as Kelly alluded to, uh, seeing Sports Cheetah, uh, was, uh, was an awesome throwback.
31:30
Haven't seen him in a couple years, and he looks, he's, uh, he's looking great, so that was very cool. Beardless. Okay, you have to do a double take, right? Oh, gosh. You're like, "Preston, is that you?" Um, okay.
31:39
He had, like, the final question, too, when Drew was up against the wall from Spanky being war- warning him on time. [laughs] It was very dramatic. I was sitting at the back like, "Fireworks could happen."
31:48
Spanky had to Sandman Drew off the stage at the end, yeah. [laughs] Um, so real quick then, before we get to anything else football-wise, let's talk tennis for a second. Sure.
31:57
Do you have anything in Canada today in tennis? Uh, yes. I, I'm on over 22 and a half for the Fies-Hodar match. Um, that one should be absolutely awesome. Banger. Banger. Uh, we saw these two-- we saw these...
32:10
What's that? What are you on? It's a, it's a banger, this match, yeah. Oh, banger. Absolutely, it's a banger. Um, we saw these two go toe-to-toe recently.
32:17
Uh, the market has completely flipped on the opinion of who should be the favorite in this one from what we saw then, and, um, I kind of disagree. I think it's just a very coin-flippy match. Me too.
32:26
I think Hodar, uh, is, you know, his, he's, he's, this is obviously his coming out year. Uh, you know, he's, he is, uh, bursting on the scene.
32:33
Uh, you could entirely convince me if he's on the other side of the draw from Sinner at the US Open, he's your runner-up. I wouldn't be surprised.
32:40
Um, but that said, he's, uh, you know, Fies is, uh, is a slightly more kind of complete and talented player when healthy, and I think he's healthy right now, so, uh, I think that's gonna be a, uh, a really, really close match that, uh, almost certainly goes three sets in my opinion.
32:54
Um, and, uh, yeah, that's the match of the day for me. Um, I think, uh, um, the prices on the, on Tien and, uh, uh, and Nakashima are reasonably fair. They should both come through. Me too.
33:07
Um, but the Shelton-Mencik match I disagree with. I think that should be 50/50. I like Mencik there. If you can get a plus 115-ish, uh, that's where I got in.
33:16
I think I see still plus 110s around, so, um, any kind of plus money involved on, uh, Jakub Menc- Mencik should look good, and, uh, that should be, um, serve, serve-fest.
33:28
Um, the surface is not really playing especially into the strength of the servers, um, but Mencik and Shelton have two of the best servers on tour, so, uh, that one's gonna come down to the fine margins of who can do better in tiebreaks and, uh, who can really outlast, uh, and I think Mencik's got a decent shot.
33:45
Nothing on Coco and Belinda Bencic? Nothing there? I, I wanted to take on Coco, but... I'm taking her on. Yeah. I'm going Bencic. You're taking her on? Yep. I got Bencic plus 130.
33:55
I'm not sto- I wouldn't stop anyone from that one. No. No. Um, yeah, I, I, I came real close to pulling the trigger on Osaka and Bencic in the women's side today.
34:04
Um, ultimately, I didn't get the best price on Osaka, um, so I passed on that one, and then Bencic should be able to get the better of Coco, but, like, frankly, like, the way that the surface is playing and how outstanding it, it has been for, uh, the strong returners like Iga and Svitolina, um, make me a little nervous that Coco's gonna, um, be pretty, uh, pretty dangerous on return in this one, so I passed.
34:31
Real quick, uh, US Open. Do we think Carlitos and Jannik Sinner are playing in this thing? I think Sinner almost certainly will play.
34:41
My guess is that his pull, you know, his, uh, pulling out of Cincinnati and kind of the rumblings about knee injury question marks are pre- you know, precautionary, um, and it's a little bit more of a load management situation.
34:54
Um, I think, um, the fact that he burned, [chuckles] he burned himself out on the clay swing lead going into the French Open and then had such a lackluster performance, took the opposite approach into Wimbledon, went in ice cold, you know, no, no warm-up tournaments, just smack dab, you know, smack, uh, onto grass, uh, uh, and managed to, you know, make it through unscathed, I think that's probably in the back of his mind of, "Well, let's just do that again."
35:22
Um, no, no reason to, uh, you know, fire bullets in Cincinnati in the heat, uh, and put yourself in harm's way and then turn around to do it again in Flushing Meadows in two weeks is kind of my read.
35:33
Um, plus, yeah, as you know, Gil, famously, Sinner has completed the Grand Sl- Semi Slam or whatever they were talking about. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah. The, it would be won all of the Masters 1000s. Yeah.
35:48
Um, whatever nonsense that was after he won Rome. Um, it's just important to note, yeah, he's won all these tournaments. He's gonna be the year-end world number one, playing Cincinnati or not.
35:58
Uh, he is gonna be the, uh, you know, the, the odds-on favorite at the US Open, performing well in Cincinnati or skipping it. Um, and so, uh, I'm kind of looking at the odds board right now.
36:08
He's dipped into the 50% range for the US Open. I think that's a bet on. Uh, and then I do think Carlos will play, but- Okay... that's speculative. Coming back, NFL with Drew next.
36:18
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
36:33
Back on a numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Can we show the picture of, uh, Drew, Kelly, Matt, and, uh, and Andy one more time?
36:41
Look how, Kelly, look how your f- your head is now almost as narrow as Matt Brown's is Almost. James Farra tried to put his jacket on me. That didn't work. Tried to put Matt's jacket on you? Yeah.
36:53
That is the greatest testament to your weight loss that I've ever heard. It, it was the greatest compliment I've gotten so far. Yeah. James wanted me to wear his jacket for the shoot, uh, documentary shoot we were doing.
37:01
Yeah, Drew and Andy. Andy cracking jokes the whole time. Andy was hil- Andy's hilarious. Oh, I, I, I mean, everybody's extremely sober in this picture. Oh, okay. It, it got a little rowdy at the table.
37:11
I'm not even sure I heard Drew talk for, like, 20 minutes 'cause we, the three of us were yelling at- [laughs]... things over each other. Uh, let's see here. This is- It happens... this is on Twitter.
37:18
BetOnPete, "How can you not be romantic about baseball after the Red Sox were awarded a run due to the fourth out rule?" [laughs] "I bet the Jays will have a player stay on the field between innings for a few weeks."
37:28
Love that line from, uh... Yeah. Is that from Moneyball, Brad Pitt? Yeah. How can you not be romantic about baseball? By the way, Moneyball, I could watch it a million times and still enjoy it. Yeah, me too. Me too.
37:37
So many great lines. S- first base is easy. Tell her how easy first base, playing first base is in squash. [laughs] It's extremely hard. It's incredibly difficult. [laughs] It's incredibly difficult.
37:45
Billy Charlebois, "Keep reading tweets, Gil. As much as I love the betting analysis, the extras are what gives this show its heart, and the fact that you interact with the viewers is a huge part of that.
37:54
Great LL Cool J reference. Leave your drawers in the hamper." Yeah, no, no, there's, th- I'm reading tweets till the end of time. It's not, it's not up for debate.
38:00
LasVegas514, "Yo, everything's right in the world when Base Winner references the brat in Funkdefied. Welcome back, by the way." Thank you. That was amazing from Base Winner.
38:09
Richard Burkhardt, "Did I just hear sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear come out of Gil's mouth?" You did.
38:14
Paul Nelson, "You're nationwide today, Mark in Montana, and my, and I'm at 39,000 feet, and welcome back." And one from Cleve TA said, "Week one, Houston plus the points."
38:24
Evan Klein, "If Kelly didn't hate kids so much, he'd know Alabama has a girl on their team who's absolutely kicking butt." That's right. How dare you?
38:32
Hates k- hates k- hates kids, specifically the team with a girl on it. Oh, yeah, I had no idea what that was talking about at first. [laughs] Oh, okay, Little League World Series. Yeah. And, and, and Ankit Kadakia.
38:42
We'll end on this one. Ankit Kadakia, "Just the tip, huh?" Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Drew Dintzer, "Got enough to join us for a second segment, courtesy of the Progressive guest line."
38:50
You can follow Drew on Titter, on, on Titter- [laughs]... on Twitter for, for that. @whale_capper. Don't go to that other site. [laughs] That could be something else entirely.
39:00
[laughs] @whale_capper, uh, co-host of the Deep Dive podcast with Andy Molator. NBC Sports Bet the Edge with, uh, Jay Croucher. Uh, we d- we left the women out of the US Open, then we'll get to football.
39:10
Anything to say about the US Open on the ladies' side? Oof, man, it's gonna be very competitive. Um, I'm definitely drinking the ego Kool-Aid, which I'm sure you are feeling as well. Mm-hmm.
39:20
Um, I'm definitely very, very, um, suspect, uh, with what in the world is going on with Sabalenka. Um, she's still the market favorite, I k- I suppose.
39:31
Um, but this is now, you know, kind of a little bit of a, uh, crisis of, of, of, uh, quality from her. Yes. Uh, really s- going back now a couple months.
39:42
Um, just haven't seen anywhere close to the consistency and u- and dominance that we saw from her in the first half of the year. So, um, yeah, she's on, uh, she's on fade watch as far as I could tell you.
39:52
Um, the other kind of clear and obvious, uh, player that you have to, you know, be prepared to cover is Coco, I mean, excuse me, is, um, uh, Naomi Osaka.
40:02
Uh, I think Osaka just being as good as she is on hard court and what we saw from her on clay and grass, where she t- typically struggles, I think is signal that, uh, you know, she's in outstanding form right now.
40:15
Um, obviously the fact that she's made a deep run as she has in Toronto is, is, is, uh, is useful, uh, signal as well, and a lot of the best prices have evaporated for, uh, Miss Osaka.
40:26
But, uh, if you can still find a 12 to 1-ish type of price out there pre-flop, I think, uh, you go for it.
40:32
Um, but there are, I think, about seven contenders on the women's side with a realistic chance to win, realistic meaning better than, like, 5% chance.
40:40
Um, and where they land in the draw and how they, uh, you know, how the draw is balanced is probably gonna determine most of my action for the US Open, and it usually does, right? Mm-hmm.
40:50
Like, we don't really talk about sort of the process of getting futures down.
40:54
But for me, um, I'm firing a lot of futures in the off season for the Australian Open just based on what I'm reading, who's changing coaches, who's changing tactics, et cetera.
41:04
I'm firing all throughout the clay season into, uh, the Roland Garros futures book just because you're getting a sense of, like, whose game on clay is doing well, and there is a ton of on-ramp for that tournament.
41:15
Um, so you kind of have to be early.
41:17
Uh, similarly, if you see players playing well throughout the spring and into the clay season who you know excel on grass, I'm usually filling up my W- Wimbledon, uh, futures book before we even see anyone play on grass.
41:30
Um, but the US Open, you know, the, the prices are usually pretty cooked by the time we get to hard court season, and so most of the, my futures action there comes during the, um, uh, you know, post draw, uh, timeframe, where you s- you, you're really trying to key on, uh, your up-and-coming players who got favorable draws on, in the weaker portions of the, uh, of the bracket.
41:51
That's an excellent breakdown, and I, I think you're right. I don't think we've ever gone through that precisely as, as you just did right there.
41:57
And, uh, Drew, Zach, and I will strive to do a, uh, podcast post draw prior to the US Open.
42:02
And as Drew has said many times through the years, the beauty of tennis, the beauty of tennis is that it, it cleanly puts the Grand Slams right in between the NFL season. [laughs] Right?
42:13
The, the men's final at the US Open is always the first Sunday of the- Yep... NFL regular season. Speaking of which, you and Andy on the Deep Dive podcast, how many teams? Have you done all 30 already?
42:24
How far through are you? We're, we're ha- we're halfway. Halfway. We, uh, we just, uh, turned, we t- we hit the halfway pole, uh, on, uh, Wednesday of last week.
42:32
Uh, we're into the NFC West this week, which obviously matters a lot.
42:37
Um, and I think the, um, uh, EV, N- NFC West this week, NF- AFC West next week, and then, uh, we'll, we'll wind down with the, uh, with the South and the South. As one does, wind down with the South- Yeah...
42:51
appropriately so. Uh, we, we had Cl- we had our buddy Cleve T.A., who I know you met for the first time in person, uh, at BetBash. Sure. We had him on earlier. He as always was spectacular.
42:59
We talked a little bit of, of futures and, but specifically on some awards with him. Have you made any- Hmm... pre-flop futures or awards plays thus far?
43:09
I think my only awards exposure right now is Jesse Minter Coach of the Year. Ooh. Um, I think he's taking over a really, really talented defense in Baltimore.
43:19
Um, and the signal that I get from seeing Minter's Chargers teams is he got more out of the sum of the parts both of the last two years he was in charge of that defense.
43:29
Um, I'm really, really excited to see what he does with a defense that has kind of a jack-of-all-trades keep player like Kyle Hamilton, who, uh, and for my money, is one of the best cover players in the NFL.
43:41
Um, I'm excited to see what they look like with a, a decent pass rush this year. Um, it's gonna depend on Roquan Smith having a bounce-back season.
43:50
He was pretty, uh, horrific, particularly against the run last year for some reason.
43:54
I'm hoping that was injury-related and that he still has another year before he, you know, kind of, uh, kind of fades, uh, you know, into his 30s.
44:01
But, um, uh, but, you know, Minter kind of specifically having a Ravens team that crashes the party in the top five of defenses, right?
44:10
If, you know, if you, if you kind of polled I think a lot of people, including media members, about who are the top five defenses, I think they would name six teams, and they would have them in some order, and the Ravens would be out of that mix surely.
44:23
Um, but as I kind of look at them on the fringe of the top 10 in terms of personnel and the fact that Minter gets the most out of his, um, units, uh, I, I, he, they could crash the party.
44:34
They could be a top five defense. That could be enough to launch the Ravens into the one-seed conversation, um, in a relatively wide-open AFC.
44:41
And I think in that world, even though their win total is 11, and this typically goes to a team that's expected to be middling to poor and exceeds and gets into the playoffs, um, you know, if he's a new coach and he sp- and it's specifically perceived to be his unit, uh, that is kind of helping the Ravens get to, uh, the one seed and the home, you know, home, home, home field and, uh, preferential path to the Super Bowl, then I could see him getting Coach of the Year.
45:07
Jesse Minter from Drew. What number are we sitting on Jesse Minter right now? He is 10 to 1 over at DraftKings. 10 to 1. Yeah, I love that. I love that.
45:16
At faraway places where, uh, I got down, it's more like eight to one. So 10 to one's a great price. Selfish question from me. Yeah. Laremy Tunsil, torn triceps. Mm.
45:26
On a scale from zero to 10, zero being un- un- unseared, 10 being completely incinerated, how cooked are my Skins? I would say they're a seven and a half to eight.
45:40
Um, we're not in well-done territory, but we're in, like, medium well. Yeah. Um- I think so... the, yeah, Laremy Tunsil is a top three offensive lineman by my ratings. Um, he is... And specifically, like,
45:55
if there's any world where you are like, "Oh, Jayden Daniels is gonna have a bounce-back year," it's gonna be because he's gonna stay healthy this year. Exactly.
46:02
And that's gonna be because he has Laremy Tunsil protecting his blind side. [laughs] Exactly what I said yesterday. Yeah. And now you have light that all on fire and, uh, I, I don't know, man.
46:11
I, Daniels is, is, he has a relatively small frame. Um, I'm nervous about, uh, what pass rushes are gonna do to him. Uh, I mean, it's still a fairly good line outside of, uh, the out tackle position.
46:24
But, and I'm, I mean, I'm guessing what, Connerly is probably gonna get the call-up- Yep, Josh Connerly... into this spot. Yep.
46:30
Um, but, uh, yeah, I, I'm, it was gonna be, it was gonna take something special and, uh, now, now you're kind of seeing a trend in the opposite direction, so yeah. Exactly what I said. So, uh, you, they al- Oh.
46:42
They were already a team that had a very thin margin of error, and now that margin is already manifesting poorly. Well, that's a fun way- Yep... to end the conversation, Drew.
46:51
[laughs] That's, uh, that's probably what I thought was coming, but I just wanted some confirmation. Uh, appreciate it, man. Um, sorry I missed you again. Of course.
46:58
But, but looking forward to you coming for our- Awesome, dude... contest week later this month, man. Yeah, man. Uh, these contest sign-up numbers, they're looking pretty good. Looking good. Drew Dinsing, everybody.
47:07
Thank you, Drew. Coming back right here on a Numbers Game. More NFL
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A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
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