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Aug 11, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 11, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 11, 2026 | Hour 3
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45:12
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:11
eSports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. So many ways to take us in, we just, uh, we're just glad you're choosing one of them. That's right. That's right.
0:22
Gil Alexander, that's Kelly Bidlin. What do you have to say for yourself rolling in here, uh, after a bathroom break here, right as the clock is going? 'Cause you got that down pretty solid there. Oh, yeah.
0:31
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Well done. Yeah, the crew usually judges me on my pace, you know, from, from the bathroom- Yeah... back here. Yeah. But that was a, that was a slow, leisurely walk this time.
0:39
Have you ever made it through a three-hour show without, uh- Yeah... going to the restroom? Yeah, it's rare though. Rare, yeah. I'd say once a month, something like that. Joe Sheehan gonna join us. Once a month.
0:48
Joe Sheehan gonna join us this hour. I'm gonna ask, you know what I'm gonna ask, first question to Joe coming up? What? You're a baseball guy, right? You know baseball out- Four out... more, yeah.
0:58
Were, were you aware of what was going on last night in the moment? We'll see what he says. Mm-hmm. Uh, we got tweets of Betting the Book. JC, @JC562076, "Titter, the tip, and late night doctor's appointments.
1:15
We're so back. Welcome back, Gil." Thank you. It was al- I know it took a day- It was-... to sort of get in the groove again... it was only funny because it happened right after clarifying- [laughs]... just the tip.
1:24
Matthew Mayberry, "When you go to, uh, Titter especially," [laughs]... "don't click the tab just the tip." Yeah, no, I know. Mako, "Just the tip inducing Gil into the Freudian slip of Titter instead of Twitter- Yep...
1:35
was amazing." Yep. And Keith Kadakia, "Just go on the Titter, huh?" Ben McGovern, "I'm sorry, but the NFL is by far more confusing to explain to people." Oh, stop it.
1:46
He says, "Just start by trying to explain what a catch is," [laughs] oh yeah, there's that, "then after the 30 minutes you finally get to illegal procedure, alignment, and PI penalties.
1:53
I'll take explaining the infield fly rule any day." Ben, I respectfully disagree. There's nothing more impossible to explain than baseball. You know what, I'm tired of this argument actually. Yeah.
2:02
Because, like, if you, if you get anybody not from the United States, good luck with either one of those.
2:07
Yeah, but football at least you can say you got four plays to make 10 yards, on the fourth one you sort of decide do you wanna go for it or not. If you don't, you punt it.
2:17
Then all the other stuff, I, I know- Yeah, but-... ca- catch has been a problem, but you learn the, all the penalties relatively quickly. There's no pen- there's no exceptions to rules within rules.
2:28
I feel like, I hear you say this more than anybody though. Like, the, it's the nature of, like, starting and stopping that's just so odd for, especially for a European audience.
2:38
Of the like, "Okay, it's first down, and okay, this didn't work. Everybody come back and we're gonna do a second down." Yeah, but that doesn't make it tough to explain.
2:45
Anyway, I'll die on this hill, baseball is by far the hardest to, to explain.
2:49
I, I mean, I would agree with you, but- Montreal Max, "Enjoying our four days in Toronto with Benchish Sunday night and tonight, along with that bizarre delay in the Red Sox Jays last night.
2:58
And Belinda will get more crowd support tonight as it's still cold here on Americans, but Iga gets the most support from a 200,000 Polish pop- population here." Oh, okay. Hmm. Interesting breakdown.
3:08
And, uh, Roman Doggo, [laughs] he says, "Gotta be honest, I was hoping Gil and Drew would briefly discuss the GM situation at North Carolina."
3:17
[laughs] You know what I would- No, no, that's for, that's the VSiN plus, plus, plus subscription. Drew and I have those conversations all the time.
3:25
I did read that tweet coming back from, coming back from the restroom, but I was like, "What did the Panthers GM do?" [laughs] Oh, no. I missed that news. Ah, not that, not that calendar. Not that one. Nope. Nope.
3:34
Not that one. I, uh- Hey, uh, more, uh, pre-season. Please.
3:37
Not really line movement, but, uh, Zach Taylor confirming that Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Dexter Lawrence will all play in the pre-season opener. The Bengals already huge favorites though.
3:49
They are seven-point favorites, this is not moved, they were seven-point favorites before that announcement. Remain seven-point favorites against the Lions on Thursday. So you remember Zach Taylor did this last year too.
4:01
Mm-hmm. Remember the, the Bengals were the team where they didn't play anybody in the pre-season, and so they decided to switch it up last year. Yep. Um- 'Cause remember their terrible starts to seasons. Correct.
4:10
Everybody was going nuts about it. That's, that's exactly right, Kelly. They had terrible starts to the season, so they figured, hey, maybe play these guys more in the pre-season. Well, guess what?
4:17
They're still one nine and one straight up in their last 11 pre-season games. So there you go. Yeah. Enjoy that.
4:26
Hey, uh, beyond the pre-season, which again, begins in earnest, we had the Hall of Fame game, but week one of NFL pre-season, of the three-week arc of NFL pre-season begins, uh, on Thursday.
4:36
We talked a lot about pre-season betting tenants yesterday. I'm pumped. But how about- Let's get ironed...
4:41
and we, and we talked a lot about travel, case you missed it, a deep dive into Australia travel- Very well done by you... with the Rams and the Niners. Thank you very much. Yeah, that was great stuff.
4:50
Let's talk about NFL week one starting quarterback odds. You can bet on these. Um, Bet365 has these. Bet365, FanDuel had some up.
5:01
Uh, I, I gotta give Bet365 more love though, 'cause they do great golf markets, do great NFL, and I don't g- I just don't go there as often. When you talk about- Yeah... the Kelly scouring, I just- Yeah...
5:10
don't head there right away. Yeah. Um, n- a lot of these are not bettable, let's be honest, but, um, you could see the Chi- we'll, we'll show these. NFL week one starting quarterbacks.
5:20
The Chiefs, for instance, Patrick Mahomes expected to start week one. He's minus 1,000. Um, remember, this is the first snap. Mm-hmm. So if they go wild cat or something, you're screwed.
5:32
Uh, Raiders, Kirk Cousins expected to start, minus 900 over Fernando Mendoza. And the Vikings, Kyle, Kyler Murray still expected to start. He's minus 1,200. Okay. We cl- we... Oh, sorry.
5:44
I was just gonna say, this is, I'm just gonna bring up how you and I kind of first talked about one of the ways to utilize Cal sheet when, like we first started. Mm-hmm. I don't think these numbers are steep enough, Gil.
5:55
No, I don't either. Like, this is, we've, we've had the Raiders tell us that the Kir- that Kirk Cousins is their starter for training camp.
6:02
Okay, I w- I think we'd assume that means it's gonna translate over to the regular season. I don't know, mi- minus 900's deep enough. Just, okay, maybe you don't have to make a huge bet.
6:11
Make m- make a smaller bet, pick up a few pennies as you head into the NFL season. I don't, I don't think there's any world that we're living in where Kyler Murray doesn't start for the Minnesota Vikings.
6:20
I don't know if you've caught some of those stories, but the, apparently they're running, like, the old playbook with J.J.
6:26
McCarthy and a completely new playbook with Kyler Murray, and trying to say these guys are splitting reps with the first team, and it's like, eh, kinda have a feeling the guy running a new playbook is probably gonna get the call.
6:36
What's, what's the explanation for why J.J. is running the old one? I- just 'cause it's more suited to, uh, his style. I'm gonna guess less, uh, there's, there's less Runigan things involved. Hmm.
6:45
Well- I, I actually think K- those are the two- But, but, but-... we've heard things about...
6:48
but finishing your thought, 'cause I don't think you finished it, which is, i- as a bankroll, as a bankroll building mechanism- I would lay these. I would lay both those. Yeah. Yeah, and I agree with you.
6:57
Then there is the case of the Cleveland Browns, where we, we alluded to this yesterday. We talked about it a little bit. Deshaun Watson is not nearly as high as those other would-be starters on the other teams.
7:10
Deshaun Watson's minus 300 for the Cleveland Browns.
7:13
Shedeur Sanders is plus 230, then you see Dillon Gabriel and Taillon Green rounding out the quartet of Brown quarterbacks on their roster right now on their depth chart.
7:23
But you were saying yesterday, and this is widely reported, Deshaun not looking good on the practice field- Yeah, yeah... to say the least. Do you really believe, like, would you bet Shedeur Sanders?
7:34
I just could not bring myself. Okay, okay, so this is one- I couldn't bring myself to do this. No, me either. Yeah. And, a- and, and look, I, you know, I'm talking that confidently about these other teams, right?
7:43
Rewind three months ago. I, I'm shocked this is even a conversation. I really thought it was gonna be Deshaun Watson. And, and man, I, all, this one is worth tracking, whether you're a Cleveland backer at all- Sure is...
7:55
for the season. Yeah.
7:56
Like, Todd Monken was, I mean, he, he was put under the gun a bit yesterday from the, from the press of like, you know, ha- having to answer a lot of these questions because he didn't really have a good explanation of why, uh, Deshaun Watson all of a sudden ended up taking all of the first team snaps as a, like, starting last weekend.
8:14
I believe it was on Saturday, he took over all the first team snaps, took them all through the weekend, when he had been struggling so much before, before that, and splitting the reps with Shedeur.
8:23
Then he kinda came out and was like, "Ah, we just changed our minds last minute. Like, Shedeur's gonna get the first team looks today." So apparently he did yesterday. I-
8:32
and Gill, it's, it sounds like it's much more of a real battle than, than I would've thought it was going to be. Oh, I definitely did not anticipate this at all, 'cause I was definitely in the camp of
8:42
you, you, you paid him $230 plus million guaranteed, talking about Deshaun Watson. It hasn't, uh, just to say that it hasn't worked out- Right, yeah... would be the understatement of, of all time.
8:52
But here on the back end, you wanna just try to milk whatever you can out of him, so obviously you're gonna just force, you know, you're gonna force him in. There's not gonna be a question about this.
9:01
No issue with Shedeur holding the clipboard, so to speak. Mm-hmm. But apparently if you stink enough in practice, this goes into doubt. Well, and, and, and the money's, the money's gone, right? It's gone.
9:12
So it's not like you're getting any of it back, so yeah. Like, I- Yeah. And, and you're right. For a long time, I didn't think this way either. Sunken funds. Or su- Yeah.
9:18
Yeah, I didn't think this way either for a long time. I thought like that, but you're like, okay, if it's, if it's, if Shedeur's beating him out, like, there's no reason that you would say we have to play this guy.
9:28
Like, the money's gone. So I, I don't know. I think it's really fascinating to watch. My God, Deshaun Watson, though. What? H- what happened? What happened?
9:36
Well, re- remember also this, the, you know, people can also scoff at these markets, but remember Kelly and I were doing these a month, a month and a half ago, two months ago even, and remember we showed Atlanta, and Tua and Penix were, like, neck and neck, and you could have bet Tua at that point- Mm-hmm...
9:53
at a really reasonable number. But now as the season has gotten, you know, a month away, people kinda realize, well, there will be no Penix, so wh- but you could have bet that at a very reasonable number.
10:03
So there is value in these if you time them correctly, and if you sort of, in the case of that Atlanta one, you sorta said, "What are people seeing here? Why would they ever...
10:12
Even if Penix was ready to go, why would they rush him back? Why would they..." And, and we're not talking about this after the fact, 'cause we talked about it at the time. Yep.
10:19
I'm just sort of addressing anybody who would, who would scoff at betting these, regardless of what the limits are. Kirk Cousins, you got, could've gotten at minus 200 on May 7th. Yeah.
10:28
Just looking at- What was, what was Tua back then? I am so, I just- Because luckily had this right in front of me. The point- Minus 125 on that exact date.
10:35
Yeah, yeah, minus 125, because the, the point is, even if Penix was technically ready to go, why would you risk bringing him back quickly when you made the acquisition of Tua to begin with?
10:45
A- and also there's that thing of think about how the trajectory of this will go. If you start Penix and he falters- Mm-hmm...
10:55
then you ruin the kid's confidence even more than it might be, 'cause I don't know what's going on in his head at this point. Right. Versus let Tua
11:05
fall, so to speak, right, on his own game, and then bring in the kid with the, uh, you know, the Batman cape on. Right, yeah. It was, uh, I'm, like, I'm looking at others.
11:15
We had the Cardinals was up June 9th, minus 295 you could've laid on Jacoby Brissett. Yeah. That's off the board now. That's- Yeah... you can't e- can't even bet it. Anyway, gotta time these right.
11:25
And, and inevitably, look, I know, 'cause there's gonna be somebody out there who's like... And you're right. Meth. Chances are one of these 32 favorites is gonna get hurt, right?
11:36
Can we get through a whole preseason without any starting quarterback getting hurt? Doubtful. But obviously we don't know where that's gonna happen, and if you're betting on that kind of
11:45
speculation, right, probably doing this wrong. Joe Sheehan, MLB's got a bevy of picks next. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
11:55
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12:26
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13:05
That's jointhesharps.com and use promo code VSiN50. Skill Alexander, um, usually before this next guest is on, I read 13 tweets, I believe was the correct number. 13.
13:16
But, uh, I'll do him the favor of just reading two today before he comes. Okay. Bobby Gettys: "I am equally as happy winning the Red Sox July bet as I am that the Red Sox will now always have a spot in Gil's heart.
13:26
Welcome being, uh, welcome to being a Sox fan." Uh, thank you. He said, "I used my winnings for my circuit entries, so perfect timing." Yes, I will be using my winnings for circuit entries as well.
13:38
Bobby was hanging out here for, like, a week last week, pretty sure. Pretty sure he hung out with everybody at VSiN. Oh, yeah. Who- And hit every panel I think Will told me he, uh, met Bobby Gettys.
13:47
I believe it was Will. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Um, I, the, the Sox will always have a place in my heart. You are absolutely right about that.
13:52
And Corbin: "Woke up this morning and tried to wrap my brain around the baseball debacle and wonder why the MLB, the major, why, why MLB can't seem to grow the game with amazing rules like these.
14:02
Almost as confusing as someone trying to explain the college baseball brackets." Common thing here. [laughs] Um, let's start with that with our next guest.
14:10
Joe Sheehan joining us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at joe_sheehan. The author of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter at joesheehan.com. He's got a bunch of picks for us.
14:19
But Joe, uh, first of all, hello, welcome to the program. Uh, I would like to- I wanna know who narced on my joke. Who, what's that? Who told you? About the tweets. Who, who narced on me? Oh, I ca- I can't say.
14:31
I cannot say. I cannot say, Joe. Um, maybe I'll tell you off air. The, uh, I have to ask you, though, that you're a baseball hardo. You love baseball. You know baseball.
14:43
Would you have known, or did you know if you were watching it live, did you understand what was going on in the moment in the strange scenario last night at Fenway? No.
14:56
And I actually stayed up all night studying and looking at the play, because I have four or five, uh, media hits today, and everybody's gonna ask me about it, so I had to get to an answer.
15:08
I- i- in the end, they actually did make the right call, even if it feels wrong. Yeah. And just to, I know we don't have video here, but first and third, one out, but everybody thinks it's two outs.
15:19
Fly ball, Red Sox runners run because they think it's two outs. Play made. Uh, Blue Jays double up the runner at first, but they don't make a play on the runner at third.
15:30
And basically because they left the field without appealing at third base or making a play on the runner at third base, that runner, as long as he crossed the plate before the out at first was made, as a le- legally scores.
15:43
Now, it doesn't, doesn't sound fair. The Red Sox made an egregious base, two egregious base running errors and they get the run anyway.
15:51
But by the book, the Blue Jays had to make a play on the runner at third, either directly or on appeal, for them to get that out. And because the run crossed the plate before the third out was made, the run counts.
16:04
It becomes a timing play at that point. It, it's just, it's- Yes... it's fascinating because, uh, all of us who have watched a bajillion baseball games, it sort of goes against our baseball instinct.
16:16
And then I, I guess I'm just thinking about this now, if, if you've watched this many baseball games as we all have, the fact that I don't remember ever seeing that ever before is also amazing then, right?
16:30
Like, of all the games, I've never seen that happen before.
16:33
And, uh, what I was saying to Kelly earlier, and I don't know if this h- this helped, but it helped me a little bit, is I think I would've, it would've felt more natural if it was the ball that was trapped in the outfield, then it would've felt more natural.
16:46
Like, "Oh, I get it," then, you know, then, then they should've appealed, but they walked up. But since it was so routine, it seemed odd. I think that was part of it for me.
16:56
Had the Blue Jays, had the Blue Jays made a play at third, it would've been the fourth out of the inning, and there is a rule on the books that allows a fourth out to over, supersede what happened before, and the run would not have scored.
17:07
A fourth out play, I wanna say happens maybe every four or five years. Hmm. You know, a couple times a decade.
17:12
Apparently there was a similar play when John Schneider was ma- the Blue Jays manager, was managing in the minor leagues. This actually did come up in, you know, 10 years ago when he was managing in A ball.
17:22
So, you know, maybe he should've known, you know? Yeah. [laughs] But, uh, it, it is a very rare play. It is an edge case in the rule book.
17:28
And, uh, while the umpire's got it right, it's definitely one of those where you're like, "Did they really?" Yeah.
17:33
Well, it makes me feel better that you and Jensen Lewis, who precedes us on the air, played at the highest level in the majors, neither would've sort of picked up on it, like, instantaneously.
17:43
Um, Red Sox go on to lose two to one, even with that run counting. They've lost three in a row, and as Kelly said earlier, they suck. Three in a row. They suck. Yeah, it's true. Get it together. Get it together, Red Sox.
17:55
Um, there, by the way- Vikings... just real, s- sorry about this, Joe.
17:58
[laughs] We just did a whole thing on, uh, who's starting first quarterback, first, uh, quarterback, uh, starting quarterback first week of the season.
18:05
Adam Schefter reporting just at this moment, the Vikings have named Kyler Murray their starting quarterback, so there you go. I assume that means for the regular season. I would assume that too. Yes, I would say that.
18:14
Yeah. Okay, so there you go. Uh, let's talk baseball. Let's, let's go to your bevy of picks. Pirates are at the Marlins. Which way you going here?
18:22
And before we start, let me just make the point, Gil, these are all sides and a couple of futures. I'm not betting totals anymore, and there's been some really good research done over the last couple of weeks.
18:32
Uh, Ballpark Pal, who, uh, your guy Steve Fezzik has brought up on the, on the show before- Yes... looked into the performance of the baseball coming off the bat.
18:39
This isn't drag issues, this is actually co- coefficient of restitution, how hard the ball comes off the bat, and it's definitely something that's been going on with the ball since, uh, since the break.
18:48
So I don't play totals right now. With all of the machinations with the baseball this year, I don't think totals are playable at this point.
18:54
So these are all gonna be sides, starting with Paul Skeens against the, the Marlins tonight down in Miami. There's been all this conversation about Skeens. He hasn't pitched well.
19:03
The ERA, the baseline numbers, are really bad. But when you look underneath, you see that there's a two-run gap between his ERA and his FIP over the last couple of months.
19:14
The last four starts, he's given up a 444 batting average on balls in play. He's pitching fine. You look at the strikeouts, you look at the strikeout to walk ratio, and he's somebody I want.
19:24
If I'm getting him at minus 112, I think that's a steal. Skeens is actually just as good as he was a year ago, he's just getting crushed on balls in play, and that's mostly about the Pirates' defense and luck.
19:35
Let's go to the Yankees and the Mariners. Yankees, we talked about a little earlier with Borchard. I just feel like they are, they're, they're always the team that has reinforcements coming, right?
19:44
Whether it's starting pitching, um, whether it's, of course, the looming specter for the rest of the league of Aaron Judge. When will Aaron Judge come back is the real, the real question.
19:53
They seem like at full strength they're still the best team in the American League, despite not helping at catcher or at relief pitcher, uh, before the trade deadline. Uh, you've got them today against the Mariners?
20:03
Yeah, it's mostly, it's mostly because of that, the starting pitching depth. Just an incredible rotation. When we get to the playoffs, they'll have Carlos Rodon back as well.
20:11
You're talking about a team that goes six starters deep. They'll have Ryan Weathers going tonight against the Mariners. The Mariners are a bottom five team in baseball against left-handers.
20:19
Neither one of these teams is scoring a lot in the last, uh, month or so. The Mariners have had issues all year. Their best hitters, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Josh Naylor just haven't shown up this year.
20:30
Uh, the Yankees, you know, it, it's not a good lineup, but I think it's gonna be a little bit better against Brian Wu. Wu has a large home road split this year, but like Skeens overall, it's mostly BABIP.
20:41
So I wouldn't put too much on that. But we've got both of these teams coming off an off day. I think that's an edge for the Yankees, who have the deeper bullpen. So a lot of reasons to take the Yankees.
20:50
It's at a small number tonight. A's gacked the game in a big way to the Rays last night, gave up an eight-run frame to take a four-run lead to a four-run deficit. They lose 10-6.
20:59
But they would've won on first five for bettors at plus money. You're taking them first five today at plus money against the Rays. Yeah, they've been a little competitive for half a game.
21:08
Sometimes the second half, sometimes the first half. Uh, they took two from the Red Sox over the weekend. Uh, I think that, uh, Nick Martinez has been way over his head.
21:16
You look at the gap between his ERA and his underlying numbers, and that hasn't been very good. He's somebody who has typically been fly ball prone and home, and homer prone, and that hasn't been the case this year.
21:26
Put him in Sutter Health Park tonight. I think Mason Barnett can hold down the Rays, who aren't a particularly good offensive team, um, in this park tonight.
21:33
And again, I'm getting a good plus number on a team that, you know, is facing a pitcher who's a bad fit for Sutter Health. So give me the A's at plus 140 for five innings. Just hold on.
21:42
And Brewers over the Padres at Petco tonight. Yeah, they lost a tough one last night because they basically had no bullpen available.
21:48
They let Logan Henderson pitch into the seventh, which is not, you know, that's an off-label use of, of Logan Henderson. He gave up the lead in the seventh. Tonight they get a fresh bullpen back.
21:58
We'll see maybe Abner Yribar isn't available, but everybody else will. You've got a better starting matchup with C- Kyle Harrison going against Walker Buehler.
22:05
So I think the Brewers could win this one from the front with Harrison out-pitching Buehler, and I think it w- win, they can win this one the back with a good bullpen performance. So give me the Brewers tonight.
22:14
All right, make me smile with your futures. What do you got here, Joe?
22:19
Listen, I keep thinking about our buddy Paul Spor, who was on here about a month ago, talking about how not only would the Tigers win the division, they would win it going away. And I kind of laughed at the time.
22:28
I was gonna reach out to him, but I let it go, and now I think he was ahead of all of us. The Tigers now plus 410 to win the division, plus 7,000 to win the World Series.
22:37
I think a piece of both of those makes sense, because the division, look, they're still the best team in that division. And you said yesterday, you know, they would go for it. They didn't really go for it.
22:45
They traded their best two pitchers, uh, starting pitchers. But they do have some depth. Um, they're gonna get some hitters back. I, I still worry about the bullpen, but they're just chasing teams, like the White Sox.
22:54
You got the, the Guardians, the Twins in that mix. They're just better than them.
22:58
But give me the Tigers to win the division at plus 410, and then if they get into the postseason, I think they got as good a chance as anyone else, and 70 to 1 is a big number.
23:05
Yeah, I distinguish it from two years ago when they traded Flaherty. Then they really weren't going for it, and they made the playoffs. This year I think they still had an eye on it.
23:12
They still figured, "We can still do this even if we do the responsible thing." That was the distinction. Thank you, Joe. Appreciate it. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:28
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23:54
Get a full year and save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's VSiN.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bitlan.
24:05
Uh, in the hizzay here, uh, in case you missed it before the break or during the Joe Sheehan segment, we were rude to Joe, but it popped up on our screen 'cause we had just done week one starting quarterbacks.
24:14
Kyler Murray will be, confirmed, the Vikings' starting quarterback week one. Nothing surprising about that, but it is confirmed now by Adam Schefter.
24:22
He will be the fourth different week one starting quarterback for the Vikings in the last four seasons. That is not optimal Not great Not great But not a problem for Kevin O'Connell, you know? Not great, Bob.
24:32
He's got this all figured out. Sam Darnold winning ball games for them. The, uh, we were talking about some of the odds and how these can be good bets. Just pulled up some of the ones from years past.
24:42
How about August 3rd, 2025 is when we had this conversation, Gil. Colt's week one starter, Anthony Richardson minus 245 and Daniel Jones plus 186. Now refresh my memory. Daniel Jones started week one?
24:59
Yeah, he did, and he played pretty dang well for a few weeks. When did, when did the band incident happen with Anthony Richardson? That was middle of October. And- It was actually later than I would've thought...
25:09
middle of October. Now here, get... Here's the thing. Obviously Daniel Jones had the great start to last year. I couldn't remember if Anthony Richardson started a game, but Anthony Richardson,
25:18
you were just saying this, we were just talking about this off air. A year l- and we're almost a year later, right? It's 10 months later. Mm-hmm.
25:26
Is still having vision problems from that band snapping back and hitting him in the eye. What's the, what did your m- your mom always say? "You could've lost an eye." Yeah. Like, he l- he legitimately- Oh, yeah...
25:37
could've- Yeah... and he's still having vision problems. Like we have, we have not talked about that incident enough. Wow.
25:44
It is just tr- it c- it's- I feel like you and I have- I don't wanna use the word tragic, but it, like, could be It could be, yeah. Yeah.
25:49
I feel like you and I have, just 'cause you and I are b- we're both amazed from when it, when it happened to now. I'm just, every time I see anybody using one of those, I'm like, "This is an accident waiting to happen."
25:58
Like, "This is [laughs] gonna snap," and like, you know, or they're gonna lo- they're gonna lose hold of it. It's gonna hit you right in the face, right in the eye.
26:03
Ooh, was it, was it hinged to something, or would he have both arms on it? I'm not sure. Yeah. I'm not sure, but yeah. Oh.
26:08
There, there's an article from Yahoo, this is three days ago, like, th- th- them talking about him still struggling with that.
26:15
Uh, that, man, that's been another odd camp saga, I guess, with the Colts and the backups because there was, m- m- remember, I mean, it was, what, two or three months ago that there was, I can't remember if it was Anthony Richardson demanded a trade or they were, like, agreed on a trade was gonna happen.
26:33
He's still there, and then, like, early reports was that he was playing pretty dang well and had, like, clearly tooken, taken the backup job, but then the recent, recent reports [laughs] are him and Riley Leonard are locked in a battle for the number two spot.
26:46
If Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson were in a fight, who would you root for? Oh, Josh Allen, for sure. Come on. He lo- he loves them both so much. Anthony Richardson was, like, a one-year flirt.
26:54
[laughs] You know what I mean? One-year flirt. Uh- I did have an MVP ticket on Anthony Richardson, though, like two years ago. I, trust me, I remember. Be- bets that will never be forgotten. Anthony Richardson, MVP.
27:05
Still not as good as our Taulia Tagovailoa Heisman bet. That was an all-timer. That one was an all-timer.
27:10
Our prime time action, Taulia Ta- Tagovailoa, and he proceeds to go out on a Thursday night and throw three picks in the first half. And so what I love about that one is it's right up there.
27:18
It's not quite as good, but the timing's better. It's right up there with the Will Hill Rutgers to win the Big 10 Tournament basketball and all. Oh, I- We're like, "Dylan Arbor, Ace Bailey? Lock it in, 200 to 1?"
27:29
No, I thought that, I thought you were gonna bring up the Cody Bellinger, uh, home run- [laughs]... in the World Series in the 2020- Yeah... when you were worried about his shoulder. You're like, "Oh, shoulder's fine."
27:39
Me handicapping baseball, but how can his anytime- [laughs] What, what, what'd I bet? Was it anytime home run? I don't, I can't remember, but he, like, just- It was like under total bases or under RBIs- Yeah...
27:48
or something. I'm like, "He's battling back from this shoulder injury. How do they have this line?" We were live on- And then just jacks one out of the park... we were live. Kelly goes, "Shoulder's fine."
27:55
[laughs] He had separated his shoulder, it was like the game before. Yeah. Right? Wasn't that what it was? Yeah. They didn't know if he was gonna be available. They p- he popped it back in- Yeah... and went and played.
28:05
I'm like, "I'm betting every under. No way." Tweets @BeatingTheBook, Brian P., "Hey Gil, didn't this happen in Field of Dreams, the fourth out? And then the kid turned into a doctor or something? Love the show, guys.
28:15
Keep it up." Thank you. [laughs] Thank you, Brian P. Field of Dreams, not something v- uh, just Field of Dreams versus Moneyball, Field of Dreams is not something I watch over and over.
28:24
I know a lot of people love Field of Dreams. They think it's the best baseball movie ever. For me, it's Moneyball, just 'cause there's so many great sneaky lines and scenes in there. Oh, man.
28:34
Wait, wait, you would say that's the best baseball movie ever? No, no, for me it's, uh, Money- b- no, I'm not saying it's the best ever. I'm just saying- Okay... Moneyball to me is imminently rewatchable.
28:44
No, no, I completely agree with you. Yeah. I completely agree. I, Field of Dreams is great, but you're right. Like- Yeah, I'm not trying to watch that again...
28:50
it's, from the rewatchability, I have, I've probably seen Moneyball more times than Field of Dreams. Yeah, and Moneyball has such a, like, an important place in my life for handicapping and all that. Right. No, totally.
29:00
And it's just, just there's so many. The, uh, "Do we care how he gets on base?" Jonah Hill's like, "You do not." [laughs] When I point to you- Yeah... it means you can answer. [laughs] Do I dare speak to that?
29:09
You do not. Uh, okay. Oh, I wanna talk about this tweet. I didn't, I was gonna wait till Todd was on tomorrow. Todd Wishnev's gonna join us tomorrow, but all the reports from BetBash were spectacular. Mm-hmm.
29:20
Like, I r- I, I wasn't at BetBash. I, but I, I got so many tweets about people who were there, and it just felt like to me, people enjoyed BetBash in a way this year, at least the people that I'm closest to,
29:32
as, like, greater than they even did in previous years. Like, people were really having a good time with people. They were there to learn. They took it seriously, with one exception. One exception, which was, uh, Fezzik.
29:44
[laughs] Fezzik had a tout ethics seminar. Yeah. So, uh, Friendly Neighborhood Capper has tweeted me. He goes, "My understanding is Todd, Todd Wishnev caught some strays at BetBash.
29:56
Todd's appearances on VSiN are amazing. He does such a good job of explaining live betting strategy and the math behind it. Categorizing him as a square bettor or a sleazy tout is baseless."
30:05
So I don't know if they categorized him as a sleazy tout, but, um, someone who was on stage there with Fezzik immediately, like, mocked and dismissed Todd, and y- uh, le- legitimately used the words, "Look at him,"
30:21
meaning, meaning commenting on, like, apparently his appearance equates with he can't possibly be this good. Now, let me explain. I, I will be the first to admit, I am very protective of my friend Todd Wishnev. Mm-hmm.
30:32
I, Kelly, am the only one that was allowed to make fun of Todd No. I, I'm super protective of Todd. Todd had a 187 unit positive college basketball betting season.
30:43
And by the way, these aren't like tout th- Todd, Todd is, Todd doesn't sell anything. These are not, these are not tout numbers where you're playing two stars and three stars.
30:50
These are all by one unit, that he was plus 187. So by tout currency, right, it's like he had a 374 unit positive season. Yeah, right.
31:00
[laughs] But some guy goes on stage and immediately dismisses him, and also adds, uh, or someone else added in the audience, I'm not sure, you could only get 5% of his plays.
31:12
And Mike Palm then apparently on our air goes on and cr- and corroborates that, hating on it. All y'all need to stop with this BS.
31:23
Like, the w- the biggest, I have so many pet peeves with the sports betting corner of the world, but maybe my single biggest one is nobody can seem to give credit to anybody else. Mm-hmm.
31:34
And it just, I don't know what it is about the DNA of sports bettors, not all, but n- but, but a ridiculously large percentage of people who don't have the grace and the humility and the just the, the decency to actually praise someone when they, when they do something outlandish.
31:51
By the way, the day that you, talking to all these people, the day that you have a plus 187 unit anything, I, I'll wait. Get back to me. What Todd did was unbelievable. And by the way, you can get...
32:04
I, I wasn't even there on some nights, right, following his plays. But even if you're sort of casually in the Discord, and you have outs in front of you and you're paying attention, f- let's be conservative.
32:16
You could get 50% of them, no problem. Well, that's usually the way Todd sets it up too. Yes. Right? It's- And n- no one's saying you're gonna get all of them. No one, no one is making that claim.
32:26
But to, to belittle him, first of all, by appearance, that, that's just ridiculous. Let's just stop with that, right? That prejudice.
32:32
But to then act like, "Hmm, how can I come up with another way to be dismissive of a g- of a guy who did so well? Oh, I know, I'll go with this narrative that he only, that you could only get 5% of his plays."
32:47
Just shut up. Like, it just drives me crazy that people are that, are, are that petty in this corner of the world. Anyway, I wasn't gonna bring it up, but the tweet came up, so I had to. It, it drives me nuts, dude.
32:58
Yeah, he was, uh, Fez was on with Dustin and myself before he went over to the panel, but I didn't catch any of that 'cause it was on while we were on air. Yeah. It was on 9:00 hour on Friday. So yeah, that was going on.
33:09
I've only heard a couple f- uh, secondhand stories about it. Chris Heath, "Costner is in two other sports movies better than Field of Dreams." Oh, Tin Cup has to be one of them. Tin Cup, ooh, yeah.
33:20
I like- What's the other? Tin Cup's a better movie, you're right. Yeah, Tin Cup's better. Field of, Field of Dreams is a beautiful thing, but I'll, I'll go back to the Brad Pitt line as Billy Beane.
33:29
"Who's not romantic about baseball?" And what was- What was the other dude- Didn't, didn't, uh- Or did that s- It's hard, it's hard not to be romantic about baseball. What was the Benito, uh, or not Benito. Bull Durham.
33:41
Benicio Del Toro at the end of Traffic in the pool when he's wired goes, "Who doesn't love baseball?" Same sort of sentiment there. Uh- Costner's done a million sports movies. Oh, he sure has. Draft Day.
33:53
But I'm trying to think what's the, what was- For the Love of the Game. What was- Bull Durham. Bull Durham. That's probably what he's talking about. Bull Durham was the other one. Um, we'll recap the bets.
33:59
Race to 40 regular season home runs. We'll touch on that after the break as well, where it's close between Schwarber, Alvarez, and Caminero. Also Hunter Goodman, not to be outdone.
34:10
One home run separates all four of those guys. That's next on the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:15
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:33
A Numbers Game. Un partido de numeros. Live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin. Yo. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
34:42
By the way, I, I say that now, and people get mad at me for saying it, but it was always a Numbers Game tradition for me to count producers. Yeah. And it was, it wasn't meant- You know I've-... in any way.
34:53
Yeah, you know I've never taken it any way. But- Yeah... you know, I, I understand. But now maybe, maybe I should lose it. I understand and appreciate the people out there, yeah. Yeah, I get it. Yeah, absolutely.
35:00
Absolutely. Uh, we get tweets. Beat of the book. This is, uh, Bri- Brian M. Uh, "Animal House," he said, "immediately came to mind when I said only I can make fun of Todd."
35:09
[laughs] This is apparently a, a, only we can do that to our pledges in Animal House. Uh, Patrick Kelly, Moneyball, "Do I care how he gets on base?" [laughs] You do not. "Todd Wishnev is awesome," he says.
35:21
"For me, do I care how I win? No, I do not, and I will credit wherever credit is due if credit is desired, nor will I blame because it's on me." No, and he doesn't, he doesn't require credit. I'm just defending,
35:31
I'm just defending the BS. And you've, I've gotten close to pulling the trigger a couple times in the past couple weeks on Moneyball. You're gonna make me watch Moneyball now in the next day or two.
35:42
Well, here's one from Kevin. Is it Mole, Kevin Mole, or Kevin Mole? Mole, Mole, Mole. [laughs] That's what I was go- Uh. Mole, Mole, [laughs] Mole, Mole. "Agree on Moneyball rewatchability. Best exchange.
35:54
Uh, Hattie, 'You want me to replace Giambi? What about the, what about the fans?'" [laughs] And w- Ro- Rob Washington, "Yeah, maybe I could teach one of them." [laughs] That's a great scene. Brad Pitt.
36:04
You know what I ha- Yeah. What I hated was the, that's one of those movies, don't, don't go watch real interviews afterward- No... of what's true and what's not. No.
36:11
'Cause, 'cause of course, like, of course that's the one scene you're just- Of course... you're praying is partially true, right? It's just nowhere close.
36:19
What do, what do they show up at his house, like, on Christmas Eve night or whatever? Yes. Yeah. Like, just a complete logical situation.
36:25
Or, like, Dave Justice, uh, uh, you know, a later career Dave Justice is on that A's team. Oh, I love that scene in the batting cage. Try to get the, it...
36:32
Oh, no, not the batting cage one, but he's, he, so he's trying to be a leader now 'cause, uh, Billy Beane, uh, that's played by Brad Pitt, is trying to m- you know, suggest to him that he should be more- Mm-hmm...
36:40
of a team leader. And so he says to Had- Hadeberg Who's really at the center of Moneyball in real life and in the movie, played by, what's that actor's name? Chris- Pratt... Pratt.
36:50
Uh, he says, he says, "What's your greatest fear?" He's all, he got, he goes- [laughs]... "Uh, I don't know. A general, a ball hitting my general direction." He, he goes, "Ha ha, you're funny." Good luck with it.
36:59
[laughs] "No, no, really." He goes, "No, no, that's really it." [laughs] That's right. He's like, "Good luck with that." The, uh, no, w- remember the batting cage?
37:07
And Brad Pitt goes, he was like, "Hey, we, you know, we kinda need your leadership, right?" Yeah. "That's why we brought you in here," feeling, David Justice kinda being all cocky.
37:13
Like, "No, he brought me in here 'cause I'm a big time player, and you're paying me like that." Brad Pitt, "No, y- the Yankees are paying you like that." That's a- "We're paying you to do this."
37:22
Yankees are paying you half your salary- Yeah, right... half for you to p- for play against them. To play against them. That's right. That scene, God, that was a great scene.
37:29
Uh, Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panties, says, "I literally would have fought someone over this Todd Wishnev comments at BetBash. Are you kidding me? He's giving out these plays for free, and he kills it.
37:38
WTF does appearance have to do with betting?" Thank you. Two Drinks In, "Thank you, Gil, for standing up for Todd.
37:44
I could only listen every now and then to the Discord, but I had at least a 65% ability to hit the number he posted. Also, if you're like Fezzik, you can take a derivative of his play and still make money.
37:53
And sometimes you get a better number than Todd also." Bond Plate, "Pretty pissed hearing how Todd was treated in Vegas. Lame. I can only speak from my experience.
38:00
Todd helped me build a model and taught me a ton about attacking college basketball in-game. A lot of what I use today came from those lessons. Nothing but respect for Todd Wishnev." Um, Montreal Max.
38:14
I'll, I'll, I'll have to read through that later. I don't know what he's saying there. Um, okay. Bets. Belinda Bencic to, for me today is my tennis play. This is in Toronto.
38:24
This is the back half of the quarters in the 1000 tournament in Toronto. The men are in Montreal. They're playing all their quarters today on the men's side. Again, 1000 is just a notch below the Slams.
38:35
They go from Canada to Cincinnati and then to the US Open. I'm on Bencic, Belinda Bencic, plus 130 versus, uh, plus 140 versus Coco in the, uh, semi. That's 7:00 PM Eastern, 4:00 PM Pacific today.
38:49
Just going to look that up. Thank you. And, uh, Tigers most wins in August, 60 to 1.
38:53
They were idle last night, but they got a three-game set at home against the Guardians, three-game set at home against the White Sox after that as they look to move up in the division and in the wild card race.
39:04
They're only a game out, I believe, in the wild card race. Um, at least that was it before yesterday. I think it's still a game out. Uh, 10-point teaser also. I hesitated.
39:13
I didn't know if I wanted to put this up on the screen because again, these are, the, the availability of these as a preseason function, as a, a preseason betting tool, is getting worse and worse every year.
39:25
But I still found one offshore. I paid minus 130 on this. Dolphins, Commanders over 25 and a half. Buccaneers, Jets over 26. Rams, Chiefs over 26 and a half.
39:35
Just something we do in the preseason every year if you can still find them. You, sir. Yeah, preseason week one bets for me added the Packers plus one today. They have moved to, like, one and a half point favorites.
39:50
As I told Gil, I will continue to try to, uh, do these updates during the show because I'm betting these a lot during the show. Yeah. I was betting them Friday during the show as news was coming down.
39:58
Um, and then yeah, made the Packers play today. And an update on this, this is from Brian Batko, Steelers reporter, steelers.com.
40:06
Uh, "Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers says he has not discussed with head coach Mike B- Mike McCarthy whether he'll play Thursday night versus the Packers.
40:13
Much like last year, he said it doesn't matter to him whether he does or doesn't."
40:17
I don't know if you caught this while you were out, but, uh, we had McCarthy, like, saying, like, on the first day of camp, like, or early on in the camp that he'd love to see Rodgers play 30 to 50 snaps in, like, multiple preseason games.
40:29
What the- And Rodgers then kinda, like, laughed it off afterwards.
40:32
So it was very confusing when that came down, 'cause Aaron Rodgers has not played a lot of preseason football, uh, over the, over at least recently over the course of his career.
40:40
Did he, did he take a, did he take a break from him talking politics to, to notice that McCarthy said that? What a, what an appearance. By the way, it was, like, of course that day. Yeah. That day on the show.
40:48
Like, right before that happened, I was, like, kind of defending the guy for the first time- [laughs]... for the first time in years. Yeah. Dust and I texted afterward, and was like, "Of course." Of course.
40:55
"Of course on that day." Of course. Uh, so Packers, uh, taking a point there. Uh, six-point teaser then for me. Colts up to seven and a half. Chargers up to seven and a half. That Colts number has moved.
41:05
Titans, I am ta- took two and a half. That number has moved. I believe they're laying that now against the 49ers on the road. And then Chiefs money line, which I still really like.
41:15
This has moved a little bit, but not a ton. Well, I still see one and a halfs out there. Two and a halfs mainly, though, on the board as they host the Rams.
41:22
I love how Aaron Rodgers' latest thing, did you catch this, when he's defending himself now against no one in particular when he's on a rant?
41:28
He goes, "Hey, I'm back with my, I, I'm, I'm good s- I'm in good stead with my family now. What are you gonna say now?" Like, what an accomplishment, Aaron. Well done.
41:36
I still don't know, like, like, like we've, we've given the guy a lot of crap over the years. Like, what, that, that was just an awkward situation- We never mentioned that...
41:44
that I was gonna say, that I- We never mentioned that... never commented on. Yeah. I mean, I mean, I'm, look, I'm sure he heard a lot of that, right, from some secondhand sources and stuff like that.
41:55
But yeah, dude, wei- weird go-to defense. Gu Ramirez, "Tell that lame-o," I'm not sure who he's referring to, 'cause there's several people, "he couldn't hold Todd Wishnev's tennis bag. LOL. Wishnev is the man."
42:06
Yes, he is. Uh, Mark Borchard, base winner on the show earlier today. Uh, Mark is on the Blue Jays giving the run and a half versus the Red Sox. That's plus 146 on the run line. And then the base winner parlay.
42:19
Fez doesn't like it when he does this, but he's got one for us all the time. Diamondbacks, Dodgers plays, uh, pays plus 120. D-Backs, Dodgers money line parlay.
42:28
It was interesting that, uh, and Mark said this correctly, like, he's always pro Diamondbacks, and yet he doesn't love them at the current price to make the playoffs. Blue Jays, though- Oh, man...
42:38
he, Blue Jays he does, though, at plus 550 to make the playoffs.
42:40
I must have been doing something [laughs] during that brief bit of conversation, 'cause I was just gonna add in, this is, I, we have gotten, Mark has been bullish on the Diamondbacks the past couple seasons, and he has been very quiet about them this entire season Yeah, he has.
42:55
I mean, even like heading into the season he wasn't very- No, I think he-... he wasn't really talking them up too much... I thought he said something heading into, but yeah, he's been quiet since for sure.
43:01
Drew Dincic, he is, uh, with some men's picks on, uh, the tennis side in Montreal tonight. Rafa Nadal versus, this actually might not be tonight. Have these started? I'll check. Yeah. S- starts at 11:00 AM Pacific.
43:14
Thank you, Danny. Uh, Rafa Nadal versus Arthur Fils. He's going over 22 and a half games.
43:19
If I were to play that match, that's how I'd probably play it too, because I cannot, I, I could not pick a winner here to save my life on that match.
43:27
That's two great young players meeting up here for the second time in a short amount of time. And he's on Jakub Menšík plus 115 versus the American Ben Shelton in one of the other quarters.
43:38
And then coach of the year play from, uh, Drew, Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens, 10 to one. Said he did great with, uh, better than the sum of its parts with, uh, the San Diego, excuse me. There, I did it.
43:49
The LA Chargers defense. Oh my gosh. I did it Two days in a row. Joe Sheehan. There, there's one for me and one for you. Yeah. Joe Sheehan, Pirates today at the Marlins. Pirates are minus 112 at the Marlins.
44:00
Yankees minus 124 versus the Mariners. Uh, the Athletics, first five money line plus 140 versus the Rays. They won the first five against the Rays yesterday before getting destroyed. Brewers minus 116 at the Padres.
44:12
And then how about these, a couple futures. Tigers to win the AL Central plus 410. Tigers to win the World Series at 70 to 1. Oh. Wow. Dig it. He's going hard on the Tigers, harder than I did even.
44:23
Uh, and then, uh, we said this real briefly. We can touch on this in 20 seconds, but race to 40 home runs, you have two guys with 35, Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Schwarber.
44:32
You have a few guys with 34, uh, Junior Caminero, Hunter Goodman. But any other batter has Matt Olson in there. Mm-hmm. At 34. Like, he's not listed otherwise. Yeah, no, he's not. And he's at 34 at plus 950.
44:47
There was some home run category where I mentioned Olson earlier in the year. I think you mentioned him in the, like, race to 20 real early. Something like that. Real, uh, by the way, Browns news real quick.
44:55
Todd McGinn said the unofficial depth chart will say Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders at quarterback one. He's not ready to name a starter for the Bears game. Wow. Prop Points is next.
45:07
Enjoy from VSB, Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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