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Aug 12, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 12, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 12, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:40
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It is Gil Alexander, ladies and gentlemen.
0:19
The band is back together. The return after weeks of vacation on end, Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy. How you doing, man? I'm doing great, Gil.
0:28
It's great to be back after a week off in beautiful, sunny South Florida, and, uh, just recharged, ready to go, man. Let's get to football season. Your friend got married. Friend got married. No- Sti- still married?
0:39
Still married, still married. And they said it wouldn't last. Th- yeah, just saw, actually, he just texted me, he's in Thailand right now enjoying his honeymoon. Oh, nice. Yeah, yeah.
0:45
That's where he decided to go to [laughs] his honeymoon. He said, "Let's go to Thailand." Gil, I think we talked a little bit about this on air.
0:50
[laughs] It was the event of the season in South Florida for this wedding, okay? Oh, really? Oh, yeah. Tru- yeah, Trump Doral, the whole thi- like, half the thing was rented out. Oh, my. It was- Wow...
0:59
I don't know, it was, like, 400 people or something insane. Wow. Yeah, [laughs] it was, it was pretty ridiculous. Um, glad to have you back though, man. Glad to be back, man. I'm ready for football season.
1:09
It was fun watching some preseason action over the weekend. It was. We'll get into all the, uh, the quarterback debuts.
1:15
As, as small sample size-y as they were, you got at least four franchises that have gotta be thrilled with what they saw on the field. We'll get into all that. Um, Mark Borchardt on the show to talk baseball with us.
1:27
Michael Montesano with 10 plus season-long college football plays, season wins, conference winners, Heisman thoughts and bets, all of that with him. Samich, Sam Obami a little later on in the show as well.
1:41
Um, we don't- In studio with us. In s- oh, is that right? Yes, the great Mike Samich I believe at the shield with us. Mike Sam Obam in the studio.
1:48
Yeah, or on the table as we like to say here at the D, the lovely D, the beautiful, majestic D. I don't often go back and, uh, review guests from the previous week, but Kelly, when you were gone, it was Bet Bash 4.
2:00
You've made it an annual tradition now to not be here while Bet Bash is going on. [laughs] Spanky does this whole thing, and Kelly's like, "I'm outta here."
2:06
I know he's probably- It's gotten to the point where, like, it has been random. I think it's been three years in a row, it's been random for different, like, r- I mean, it was a wedding.
2:13
It was one of my best friend's wedding, right? Gotcha. Like, but, like, people have started to pick up on it, so, like, I keep getting these messages now of, like, "Hey, are you, like, anti-Bet Bash or something?"
2:21
I'm like, "No." [laughs] I'm just like, "I'm not there, sorry." Spanky and Kelly, the town is not big enough for the both of them.
2:26
[laughs] Uh, but I wanna thank Spanky 'cause, uh, it was Bet Bash 4 la- yeah, uh, last week. He put on a, just a f- fantastic conference.
2:32
Again, I, I like to think it's the, the evolution, the natural evolution of the Sloan, the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference that we all used to go to, and the gambling part of it, the sports betting part of it, we used to just sort of break off and do our own thing.
2:44
But, um, we get the drift. First of all, Spanky was on with us here at the, uh, table on Monday, so thank you to him for showing up. Uh, that was the day where Warren Sharp actually was on the show.
2:52
But from that conference, uh, Elihu Feustel, Captain Jack Andrews, Steve Fezzik, Carl Sack, Matt Buchalter, Michael Montesano, Rufus Peabody, they all made the trip down here to be on the show during the week, and I just can't thank people enough.
3:08
When we used to be at the South Point, they used to roll down in an Uber, which isn't cheap, by the way- Yeah, yep... uh, down to hang with us, so I'm super, super grateful about that.
3:16
Um, and then I had, you know, the last thing is the, the distinct honor of moderating a panel again this year, and I got to do the panel that Billy Walters was on. Yeah, you did. I saw, I saw bits and pieces of that.
3:29
I also saw bits and pieces of Carl Sack. Uh, I did, uh, end up tailing him on, uh, Thunder over win total bet. Oh, there you go. Yeah. I w- I was right on the edge anyways.
3:36
All I needed was one, one smart person to push me over. That was it. I was like, "All right, I'm in." He's the smart person official. Yeah. Um, you're supposed to just check out entirely, Kelly.
3:44
You're not supposed to watch the show when you're here. [laughs] Um, but anyway, got to meet Billy Walters. He was... Just such a, a thrill to do that.
3:50
And then when you, when you moderate a panel that he's on, 'cause we had three other people on the panel, including Alex Kane, CEO of Sporttrade- Mm-hmm... who's, like, super-duper smart, who's been on the show.
3:59
Um, Sean Flaherty from, you know, West Virginia legislator, and then of course, uh, Susan Hensel, who, uh, used to be at the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board.
4:06
So your thing as a, as a moderator of a panel with Billy Walters is you know people are there to see Billy Walters, but then you have to try to also incorporate everybody else.
4:13
So, like, the first thing you do is you just go, "Go, Billy." Basically, you just roll the ball out in the court for him. Yep. And somewhere between 13 to 15 minutes later, right? Because I knew that was gonna happen.
4:25
Spanky warned me that was gonna happen. Yep. Then it's the dance of, "Okay, do I interrupt him?" [laughs] Like, a little pish- Oh, man... little pitcher like me interrupting Billy Walters.
4:32
So I kinda did, and then he, like, took 90 more seconds. I'm like, "Sorry for interrupting," [laughs] you know? And then he goes on.
4:37
The, the thing Gil and I talk about way more than the audience realizes probably with, uh, certain guests. Yes. But that's... But you've, you've talked to Billy before. I have never talked to Billy Walters- Oh, really?
4:47
... before in my life- I don't-... just 'cause Brent always used to do the interviews here. Yeah, Brent always did. Yeah. I don't know why I thought you had him once or twice. No. Okay, okay. Never. Never.
4:55
So it was, it was super thrill. Anyway, just- That's awesome... just that's all I wanted to say.
4:58
S- just shout out to Spanky, and Bet Bash 5 will be next year, and hopefully everybody will get ahead of that who hasn't been to the conference before.
5:05
Uh, more than any of the panels, it's just about hanging out with people and networking. Yeah, I mean, all I heard was great things, and yeah. I mean, that, that's the part.
5:11
I, I mean, the, the, the networks, uh, you know, the, the panels are awesome. Uh, but, like, the networking, it's just everybody comes in town. It's something, like- It's amazing...
5:19
we always talk so often about some of the, you know, I'll use Drew Dincic as an example. Bill Adee was so excited to meet Drew Dincic, had never met him before. [laughs] Perfect example. Like- He's like, "He's real, Gil.
5:27
I didn't know it." Some of these guys we talk to every single week that we rarely get to see. Yeah. But can I tell a great Dincic story? Did this come up on the air at all last week? I don't know.
5:35
The Dincic Olympic bet that he gave me? Which one? Oh, man. Okay. By the way, you getting to the, the 40 golds was huge yesterday. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. 39 and a half over.
5:43
I kept re- I kept trying to remember what number it was. It was 39 and a half. 39 and a half over. Yep. Right? Okay. Yeah, so good on him.
5:47
So one of the ones he hit, I'm- Wait, what, what, my best story from vacation would be a betting story, even though I do su- I do subscribe to the if you're gonna take vacation, take some time off, don't even think about stuff Saw your tweet about that, yeah.
5:59
But I'm, it's, oh, thank you. Yeah. But I, but of course had the Hard Rock app, I had to check it out. Sure. I'm like, "Well, let me download this." Of course. And then they've got, like, the risk-free bets, right?
6:06
So I'm like, I don't even know what night this is, in Key West, this is like last Monday night or something. [laughs] I'm like 10 drinks deep, at least, okay? No, not you.
6:15
And I'm, I'm like, "Hey Drew, you got something for the Olympics tomorrow? I gotta use up, like, this like risk-free bet," you know? It's like $100, we get $100 back.
6:23
And he's like, "Yeah, bet on this random dude to m- to medal in, like, the 1,200 meter whatever," right? Sprinting, okay? And I'm like, "Okay, who?"
6:32
They don't have the m- a to medal option, so I'm just gonna go onto gold. [laughs] Sure. And this guy w- this guy [laughs] hits at, like, 16 to one. [laughs] I don't even remember his name.
6:40
He'll be, Drew will be on with us tomorrow to recap- Yeah... the Olympics and then move forward, o- obviously football.
6:44
But like, and he got to do his podcast live as one of the many podcasts that got to do, uh, their podcast live during Bet Bash. Um, but the networking is the whole thing to it. Yeah.
6:52
Um, the only problem is b- Bet Bash is now during the week, not during the weekend. So for us it's, it's a school night every night, so it's tough.
6:59
The only time I went to Legacy Club, Brian, uh, Musburger, and Bill, d- uh, sort of coaxed me into going, and it's like we got two hours sleep that night before the show I did. Right. So. Yeah, that's, that's tough.
7:10
It's tough. Yeah. But it's great. It's fantastic. Um, in your honor, before we get to the first break here, in your honor, can we talk about this golf tournament? [laughs] Yeah, like- Um-...
7:18
whenever I get a text from Gil without me prompting about a g- uh, a golf tournament, I know it's really caught his attention. [laughs] And you cannot repeat that text, that's for sure.
7:26
So anyway, the, the, the details, um, for those who missed it, Max Reisman was winning the, uh, the Wyndham Championship, right? He was winning it big. He, he eagles 13 to go up four, four strokes.
7:37
Four strokes with five to play. Easy-peasy, right? Uh, not exactly. Then he has a quad on the next hole. He goes out of bounds, ends up with a quad. Brutal. He's in a tie after 14.
7:48
Now he gets back, um, that tie at 17 under. He gets a, he gets a birdie on 15 to go back up one. Then on 16 he gaks two putts.
7:59
He misses a gimme that would k- maintain the lead, then he misses a gimme that would've kept him in a tie, and he ends up losing to Aaron Rai by two strokes.
8:08
This is not what I w- first of all, did you have, uh, Aaron Rai? I had a p- I had a piece of him live, but it was small. I grabbed him at 10 to one yesterday morning, so that w- Wes, Wes Reynolds did have him...
8:18
he had him pre- yeah, he had him, uh, pre-tournament. He- As part of his golf portfolio. Yes.
8:22
He, he, w- I've, when I flipped it on, I was, I was out and about yesterday and I kind of was watching a bunch early, and then I got back and I was like, "Oh, he tie, like, it's tied."
8:29
And then I [laughs] I had just- Oh... gotten back after the quad, [laughs] so I didn't see the quad live.
8:34
So I wanna, I wanna ask you though, of course, about this other thing, in case you missed it, which of course SportsCenter didn't have anything about this, but the, the- Did they really not?
8:42
Uh, when I watched it last night, not a peep about- Wow... Ma- Matt Kuchar. So Matt Kuchar used to be an ATM machine, top 10 guy, PGA Tour. Yeah.
8:50
Um, as Wes, the aforementioned Wes Reynolds, tweeted out while this was happening yesterday, so Kuchar can't make the FedEx Cup playoffs. He can't get to the top 75 to qualify for his St.
9:00
Jude, the first of the three FedEx Cup events, and he won't drop out of the 125 for the FedEx fall, which is a whole nother thing, right?
9:07
So w- basically you don't have to know the details right now, but essentially there was no motivation whatsoever, nor could he win the tournament.
9:13
So he's on the final hole, and you explain this to us, Kelly, better than I will, which is darkness is setting in- Yeah... and, um, he decides after his tee shot on 18 to just quit.
9:26
Yeah, so basically we kept kind of waiting. W- was the horn gonna blow? How were they gonna finish this? Yeah. And, and there are, like, look, this was a very unique situation golf tournament, right?
9:36
You're talking about the last regular season golf tournament with the playoffs starting this upcoming week. Really a big incentive for them to get the thing done and get it done by Sunday, right?
9:46
So there was a lot of discussion over the past couple days, were they gonna have to cut a round?
9:50
I mean, there were, yesterday you had guys finishing their second round at the beginning of the day, and then they still got in four rounds.
9:55
So what had happened, it happened, was on that, that, at that point it had gone on longer than where they had s- uh, you know, shut it down the day before because of darkness.
10:05
They blew the horn or whatever, and at that point those guys, i- in this case, got the option. Would they like to cont- would they like to play it out, or would you like to pick it up tomorrow?
10:15
And Matt Kuchar said, "I'm gonna pick it up tomorrow," while everybody, the rest of his group decided to play out the rest of the hole and finish. And Matt Kuchar got to...
10:24
I feel like the one part that doesn't get brought up enough about this- His post-match explanation was ridiculous. Yeah... well, uh, w- no, it's just him standing a- like, he still has to watch with the group.
10:32
It's not like he just left the course- Oh, right... and was like, "All right, I'll see you tomorrow morning." Well- So, like, he had to hang out for 20 more minutes anyways...
10:38
there, there is no feasib- there is no feasible explanation for why this, like, there's no reasonable explanation, I say, why this happened.
10:44
He, and then he, by the way, he hits his tee shot into the group in front of him on 18, so his post-match, his post-round, uh, press conference was like, "Oh, I was trying to influence Max," meaning Max Reisman, "to show him, like, this is how you should," you know, I don't know what his exact quote was.
11:01
I mean, that was bizarre enough already, right? If you thought you were gonna be the guy who didn't finish the hole, why were you rushing to tee off? That's what I mean. Can you almost- It's completely hypocritical.
11:08
It, yeah, he almost, yeah, almost hit Aaron Rai, who's basically setting up for his approach shot to go win the tournament. What if he hits him? What if he actually hits him? When, then what?
11:15
Dude, [laughs] luckily he shanked it so bad. Anyway, people who had bets on this had to wait till the next morning. Is that true, in many cases?
11:21
Yeah, I believe that took, uh, six minutes for him to, uh, uh, finish the, uh, round this morning. Yes. And, uh- Six minutes. Yeah, he shows up and I think he parted. That according to Rick Gamen, yes.
11:29
Uh, made par on 18. It took six minutes. Uh, the difference, by the way, between where he could have finished if he, uh, made a par or bogey yesterday, $58,000. Matt Kuchar has made over $59 million- Yeah...
11:40
in his career. Yeah, for people who come back and say, "Well, it was the money," well, okay, it was, but yeah, that was weird. Uh, Mark Borchardt on Major League Baseball, what he's betting next
12:00
Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Kelly's handing me tickets. Did I Venmo you this money? Did we do this? We were gonna- No, I believe you owe me again. Oh, do I? [laughs] No, you're good. Okay.
12:09
By the way, if you haven't heard, VSiN is now proudly owned by Mussburger Media. To celebrate, VSiN is offering its lowest price ever, a special three-year offer.
12:19
Now, the reason I bring this up, you're probably like, "Wait, didn't this expire yesterday?" We extend one day. We extended it today, through today. That's it. Last day.
12:28
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12:40
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12:48
If you're looking to subscribe to VSiN for the first time, please visit vsin.com/special to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N/special. Kelly, 350 bucks, three years VSiN Pro access, over 75% off the monthly price.
13:05
They have been going like hotcakes. I mean, that's huge.
13:07
I, I mean, I think for a lot of our subscribers out there, or if you're even a newer subscriber, you probably know already whether you're gonna be here long term or not. So if you know you're going to be- Yeah...
13:17
take advantage of the great savings. Where's the expression going like hotcakes come from, do you think? Yeah, no idea. Just an expression to, uh, represent the love of hotcakes in general?
13:24
Yeah, I mean, I've always enjoyed a good pancake, but you're right. No, I'm never, like, pushing people out of the way, like, you know, "Give me those hotcakes-" Oh... "before they go."
13:31
[laughs] Ladies and gentlemen, from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert, and I really mean undisclosed today, 'cause I do not recognize where he is, Mark Borchardt, base winner, courtesy of the aggressive guest line.
13:41
What's happening, Mark? Hey, Gil. What's going on, man? Uh, yeah, I'm in, I am in an undisclosed location. I don't even know where I'm at myself. Man, Mark said off air, he goes, "I think there's a lake here."
13:51
[laughs] Between two desk lamps. I think you can look out the window, Mark, and confirm that, if there's a lake or not. How are you doing, man? You know, I can s- I can see the lake from, from my window.
14:00
It's actually, actually, actually good to get out of the heat, Gil. Oh, tr- trust me. I know. I know. We have that in common, Vegas and the, uh, the Arizona desert.
14:09
All right, uh, let me start where I've asked you this before many times, but for those of us who have Braves to miss the playoffs bets, and mine is not as good as others. I have plus 750.
14:17
We here on the show in the VSiN contest have it eight to one. Will Hill has it at 15 to one. I think Felika has it even longer than that. The Mets are not really cooperating.
14:28
Uh, they're not really participating in the, uh, the demise of the Braves, 'cause the Braves are a half game in the playoff picture right now. Do you think the Braves are making this or not? I, I do, Gil. I, I like them.
14:38
You know, if you look at their starting pitching, and if you just go to my website and just look at their expected ERA based on strikeout percentage, walk percentage, ground ball rate, uh, you look at Sale, he's 2.44.
14:50
The new pitchers they have are good by those metrics. Uh, Grant Holmes at 2.61, and Swallenback's been really good, 2.95, and then it rounds out with Freed at 3.71 and Charlie Morton at 4.0.
15:04
So it's controversial to a lot, but I have their starting pitching based on those numbers, uh, and other numbers as well, as number one in baseball. So I think they make it 80% of the time, Gil.
15:14
So I, I, I think that this- Well, fair... pretty good opportunity, pretty good opportunity.
15:17
I think you can get them to make the playoffs right now at minus 150, and, uh, I'll probably, probably go down till the, till the season's end. [laughs] But the numbers look good, you know? All right.
15:26
Well, if they're one of the three wild cards, 'cause I, I assume, maybe I shouldn't ass- I shouldn't assume, but I assume you don't think they're winning the division at this point. Um, who are the other two wild cards?
15:36
And the reason I ask is because, uh, I made very few pre-fla- preseason baseball season-long bets. One of the... You know, obviously I did a Padres over, was my favorite season win total bet.
15:49
That looks great at 81 and a half. Cubs over 84 and a half, starting to look better and better.
15:54
Season wins, still to me, the most tried and true, you know, defy negative variance, 'cause there's 162 games kind of bet to make.
16:01
The only other thing I did is, people will remember, I bet the Giants, like for the first time ever preseason, I bet the Giants to make the playoffs, to win the National League, to win the World Series, because I figured they, they can't win the division against the Dodgers, but if they can get in, and somebody's got to make it in the National League, um, I think the Giants' starting pitching is equipped in a way that they could actually do some damage.
16:28
Now, here's the thing. You can get probably, uh, not probably, you can get better numbers on all of those categories for the Giants right now, double kind of what I have.
16:36
So I got them to make the playoffs at about plus 170, uh, two or something like that, 175. It's double that. Um, World Ser- excuse me, NL Pennant, 27 to one, it's double that basically.
16:48
World Series, 55 or something like that, 53, 46, we have it on screen. It's kind of, it's double that, more than that, 125 to one.
16:56
Could the Giants, for those who are interested in betting them, can they actually get there, just barely on the outside looking in?
17:03
Okay, so what I have is I have the Padres as pretty much a lock by my numbers to, to get a wild card slot, so 96.9%. We mentioned the Braves. I've got it 79.6%.
17:14
And then the Diamondbacks I have as, as, as third most likely at 53.8%. But I do have the Mets at 39.9%, and then the Giants at 16.6%. So that's pretty much, and there's some outliers, too. The Cardinals 10%, roughly.
17:28
Uh, the Cubs 7%. And that's kind of how I have the, have it sh- uh, the, the National League shaken down. So they can make it.
17:35
Uh, I think 16.6% off the top of my head is like maybe plus four something, and, uh, so they're not really getting much value, at least at DK, at plus 350. So, uh, but I, I agree with your logic.
17:47
I think they still have a chance, Gil. Geez, and Diamondbacks just barely over 50%, huh? Exactly. You know, they're, they're to not make the playoffs at D- DK at like plus 380. That's a good price.
18:00
I don't like their starting pitching, and, uh, you kind of look at the, the way it's, it's, it's, it's made up, and this is... I'm, I'm looking at strikeout percentage, primarily last 10 median.
18:10
And, and you look at Gallen, he's a 16.7 strikeout percentage, 6.2% walk rate, 49.4% ground ball rate. Gives him a base winner ERA of 5.08. Now the, the rest of the guys, Kelly's at 4.52.
18:25
Fa- uh, Brandon Pfaadt's good at 3.04. But then Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery, 5.73 and 5.38, that's alarming.
18:33
And so you throw that all in the mixer and, and, uh, with, with the, of course the bullpen ratings and the offensive ratings and the fielding ratings a- and that's kind of how it goes when you simulate the season.
18:42
So I, I, I agree with the numbers looking at the starting pitching, Gil. I don't think it's very good other than, than Brandon Pfaadt. He's, he's good.
18:48
What's the best Mark Borcherd base winner s- you know, play right now till end of season, either to win division, make or miss playoffs, whatever category you want to go to? I like the Astros to win the division, Gil.
19:03
I think, I think to the numbers, and really to my eye, they look really good, and I think you can still get them at maybe -170-ish. I've got a -320, 330 to, to win that division, and, and I like that.
19:16
I, I like to lay the wood, Gil, when I can. [laughs] And, uh, that's what I'm gonna do with, with that Houston team. Again, I, I got 'em on a lot of, you know...
19:23
Some, some of these teams you bet over the course of the season, and I just, I hope Houston can do it 'cause I got a lot of positions on 'em, Gil.
19:30
Houston Astros right now, percentage point, singular, ahead of the Mariners in the American League West, seven-and-a-half game lead over the Rangers in that division. What did you play today?
19:42
Well, today, speaking of a lay the wood parlay, I am gonna lay the wood, uh, primarily with the Yankees. I think that they should be priced at -611. They're priced at -300. So- Oh, man...
19:54
uh, I think that I'm gonna put them in a parlay there.
19:56
And it's, you know, when it gets like that, it's like the percentage, there's the incremental percentage points make the li- the American money line look greater than it is. So it's- True...
20:04
really not that high for the Yankees. True. Yeah. Yeah. And then so we go, so then we go, and, and, and I'm gonna go with the Cardinals today. I really like Sonny Gray.
20:11
Gil, I don't know if you've heard my Sonny Gray, uh, Hypnotize. You know Biggie, Hypnotize? I did a Sonny Gray rap with how he pitches. Uh, it's, it's must-see. If you haven't seen it, you gotta go- [laughs]...
20:23
go look at the archives. Wow. And [laughs] so- Link me... I did. I... Yeah. And, uh, anyway, [laughs] anyway, I'm gonna have him. He's my fifth, uh, ranked base winner, uh, pitcher. Uh, I, I don't like Andrew Abbott.
20:37
He's been, like, serviceable, I guess, but his advanced numbers are poor, and, uh, I think we have just a little bit of an edge with the offense with the Cardinals here.
20:46
So it's gonna be Cardinals and Yankees, and you're, you're risking, uh, one unit to win 1.37. That's kind of my primary play. I like the Twins a little bit, uh, with Pablo Lo- Lopez versus Brady Singer.
20:59
And then I'm gonna go with the Brewers and the Dodgers, kind of a, a, a, a preview of the, of a playoff potential game. And I'm just not sold on Kershaw from what I've seen, and the numbers aren't sold either.
21:10
I've got him right about league average. And, and Peralta's serviceable at, uh, 20%, more than serviceable, 20% better than, than league average. And I have the offenses surprisingly, uh, pretty equal.
21:21
This Milwaukee offense, even without Yelich, uh, has been impressive. I mean, they went in, into Atlanta and just hit the cover off the ball there, Gil.
21:29
You, uh, you care to sample some of that Sonny Gray, uh, Biggie thing for us right now, or you wanna- I can't, Gil. [laughs] Oh, okay. [laughs] No, I can't. No. Just thought I'd ask. [laughs] Gil... Yeah.
21:38
Feel, feel like I really needed to. All, all right, um, last question here before you go. Team, and I've asked you this before and I just want to get this sense 'cause people are thinking futures plays.
21:48
Team that if they get into the playoffs, so if they get in there, give me a one, two, three ranking of the best setups for playoff structure. Well, I talked about the, the Rangers.
22:01
I don't think they're gonna get there because DeGrom's coming back. I, I, I th- I mean, I would agree with you to an extent. Like, if you're looking... Are you looking kind of outlier-type teams? Yes.
22:10
You know, I would agree with you on the Giants. I think that's probably, uh, the best idea.
22:15
But, I mean, really, for me, if you're looking at the Phillies, you're looking at the Dodgers, the Dodgers are tough, [laughs] Gil. Yeah. They get...
22:21
It, it's a big que- if they get Yamamoto back, it's like, I, I can't really see past Dodger blue, Gil.
22:28
I, I, I love your perspective because, you know, in a year where I say I think it's more of a free-for-all than anything, you, you have the pushback on that. You're like, "Well, still at the top, though, these teams."
22:36
It's a ca- a b- big caveat 'cause I'm a huge fan of Yamamoto, Gil. Okay. All right. But, you know, you're being s- you're being loyal to the numbers as well. Mark Borcherd at Base Winner. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it.
22:47
We'll come back. Thanks, Gil. August MLB wins update, and the NFL, of course. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Football season, for real, almost here. Need a contest proxy?
23:03
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23:42
So head over to winnerscircleproxy.com now and book your appointment. Again, that's winnerscircleproxy.com, VSiN's preferred proxy partner. You excited for contests? How many are you gonna be in it, Kelly?
23:54
How many entries this year? Good question. Uh, two millions as usual, and then Survivor I gotta figure out. Probably one, maybe two. One million's for me. I don't know how many Survivors. I usually go, like, five.
24:08
I always do two millions 'cause I do one for myself and then I do one with a friend, a friend out east. Okay. Uh, Steve, by the way, the, uh, the 10.3 leg, uh, teasers, not good in week one this year.
24:21
They were, like, three and three in terms of the games that qualified. Only three got there, three didn't. But Steve Fezzik texting in this morning, uh, he is, he is banging all the overs week two NFL pre-season.
24:35
I mean, what they, they, they had- He gets-... to have done well in week one. Well, he, he says overreaction to low scoring games in week one. A few of the games were low scoring. Um, so overreaction.
24:44
He says new kickoff rules should increase scoring by one and a half points. Can't ha- can't have NFL week two totals comparable to week one. Week two has historically been much higher scoring.
24:54
So Steve Fezzik pounding the overs in week two in NFL pre-season. We'll get to the amazing world- Good to know. I started two and 0. Made, actually made two bets in the pr- uh- There you go... pre-season. What'd you do?
25:04
So that was nice. Vikings, um, and then who did I play early? Patriots. Um- That was a barn burner. Yeah, that was a barn burner. Um, so yeah, those both got home. That was nice.
25:17
It's, uh, it's fun watching the pre- uh, pre-season stuff. What did you think about the, uh, the kickoff rule? Matt Brown had a, a... He, he, he dug into this a little bit. All right, what's his take?
25:26
Um, with the tw- uh, he tweeted out yesterday, "Gathered starting field position after returned kickoffs, um, from eight of the pre-season games yesterday. 48 kicks in total.
25:37
Mean starting position 31 yard line, median 30 yard line, minimum 14 yard line, max 80 yard line, opposing 20."
25:44
So was kicking around basically where we see in these teams start off with the ball at, and it's right around the 30. So I, [laughs]
25:52
I don't know about you, Gil, it, it took me watching all of, like, two games before I was like, "All right, well I've, I've figured out if I was a coach what strategy I'd be going with," and it's the
26:02
kick it in a yard or two into the end zone and make the guy decide. Let... Make the, make the kick returner decide if he wants to take it out or not. Fezzik convinced, right? Convinced that it's, what? What did I say?
26:14
1.5 points increase in scoring, and he's adamant about it. We'll see. Yeah, he was talking about that all summer. All summer long. I remember listening to some, uh, this summer talking about it. All summer long. Yeah.
26:22
Shout out, uh, shout out to the, uh, the Ravens, uh, starting, uh, young man by the name of Owen Wright, who I've talked about on this show many times. Oh, I meant to text you multiple times.
26:32
Owen Wright, seven carries, 33 yards. Uh, 4.7 yards a carry, one catch for 17. Oh, uh, you know, not that I'm noticing the box score or anything. Anyway, I used to give- Oh, I, I caught that he was on the ticker.
26:44
He was making the ticker 'cause he was like, you know, the leading rusher or whatever. Was on the Ravens practice squad last year. They have a s- they have a deep running back depth chart.
26:52
Um, that's redundant, but they do. Obviously starting with Derrick Henry, going through Keaton Mitchell, who's coming back from injury. Um, so could be, you know... Can, can he make that team this year?
27:01
Can he, uh, make a 53 otherwise? The reason I'm so locked in is I used to give the kid baths. [laughs] I've known him since he was a toddler. I've known him since he was born. Uh, so I, I'm super...
27:12
You know, keep in contact with him every day, so I'm, I'm super excited for him, see if it happens. Uh, we'll get into the, uh, the quarterback play, which is just unbelievable.
27:20
Um, y- four, at least four teams couldn't have asked for more. Drake May, I guess with the Patriots, was more, like... It was an, it was a non-event. But, uh, so I don't know if the Patriots can.
27:29
And they're going with Jacoby Brissett, so it's not as, uh, big of a deal for the Patriots. But man, oh, man, if you're a, if you're a Broncos, Bears, Skins, or Vikings fan, boy are you excited.
27:41
Well, I guess we should get into it right now, Kelly. How about that? Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure. Um- No, I was just going back over. Yeah, I guess- Yeah...
27:45
more, I guess more of these games did go under than I, than I realized. I feel like I caught a lot of the higher scoring ones, like, later in the week. Um, let's start with...
27:54
I mean, let's start with Caleb Williams since he is the number one pick in the draft. Bears couldn't have wanted more. Again, these are all small sample sizes, but the Bears beat the Bills 33 to 6.
28:03
Over the course of 20 snaps, including two penalties that spanned two drives, Caleb Williams, uh, four of seven, the number one pick in the draft, four of seven.
28:13
By the way, would have resulted in two more completions had he not had two drops. Four of seven for 95 yards, had a 13 yard scramble, got the Bears into the red zone tr- uh, twice. Both trips resulted in field goals.
28:25
But he was making plays out of structure. Found DJ Moore for 12, extended a play, firing a dart to Cole Kmet on the run. Dumped off what looked like a no-look pass to DeAndre Swift that went 42 yards. I mean, come on.
28:38
For a first performance, [laughs] four for seven, 95 yards. Mm-hmm. One carry, 13 yards, for Caleb Will- uh, Caleb Williams and the Bears.
28:45
A, a franchise historically, of course, famously starved for good quarterback play. Yeah, that was, uh... He was one where I, I don't want to say I'm shocked by that.
28:55
It was a, it, it was a great performance [laughs], uh, week one by the first overall pick that's been highly doubted. Um, I think once we get to your boy, uh, Jayden Williams. Oh, Jayden Daniels. Or J- Daniels.
29:05
Jayden Daniels. That was the one where I was like, "Whoa". Well, for those of us who, uh, still dream of Robert Griffin III and the year 2012, the greatest quarterback who's ever lived. Okay, maybe not.
29:16
But I'm saying that was the year of, of hope and glory all destroyed by injury. We now have Jayden Daniels. Jayden Daniels had a very brief performance.
29:26
Two of three for 45 yards, 42 to Dyami Brown, baby, and then three yards into the house, where the safety was not fooled. No. And Jayden Daniels was like, "You're not catching me." Yeah, ain't catching me. Yeah, yeah.
29:37
I, I like that that was the clear, like, like, some of these defenders gotta feel out- Oh... what these rookie quarterbacks are really like. And you can almost tell where it was like, "Go for the quarter if you want."
29:45
And he's like, "All right," like, "No problem." Please, please don't get hurt, Jayden. Uh, that was- I love, I love you... uh, I, I, I am, I am very much in the camp, Gil, of, "Okay, it...
29:53
Guys, it was, it was one drive pre-season week one." Of course, yeah. It's a small sample. But, but- But... what could you have possibly wanted to see more out of that drive?
30:02
I, I think for four of these teams you can say that. I think you can say that- Yeah... for the Bears. I think you can say that for Washington, the taco holders. What was... What did I...
30:09
What was the stat I caught that Washington had, like, six passes?... completions of that length or something a year ago? Yeah Something saying like that.
30:17
I don't know if you know this, but Sam Howell was the quarterback. Sam Howell, by the way, played pretty well for Seattle. Uh, side, side note. Um, all right, if you're a Denver Broncos fan,
30:27
um, it's c- it's becoming clearer and clearer that I think Bo Nix may, I don't, may start week one. Yeah, I think so, too.
30:35
Uh, looks like Bo Nix, Jared Stidham, and, and by the way, Zach Wilson not close to the other two. Bo Nix, 15 of 21 for 125, a touchdown. He threw a pick on the first drive, and then he was just great.
30:48
Three carries for 17 yards. Um, he was the second quarterback into the game,
30:54
got a smattering of snaps with the starting offense before s- before spending much of the day with the second team against the Colt second team defense.
31:00
Um, led the offense to a field goal just before the half, and a touchdown to open the second half. Four scoring drives in five possessions. One yard touchdown pass to Marvin Mims among that 15 of 21 for 125 yards.
31:12
Good on Bo Nix. Good for Sean Payton to see that. Um, he's gotta be thrilled by, again, the first performance. We'll see how it happens in w- listen, we'll see what happens in week two.
31:24
All of this could get torpedoed real quick, too, for all these guys, but you couldn't ask for more if you're a Broncos fan- Yeah... for Bo Nix. I think the one that...
31:32
There was a few of these situations over the weekend, not necessarily with rookie quarterbacks, but him, I, I took away kind of the same thing that you did, uh, Gil, that it, it's like w- okay, what does Michael Penix Jr.
31:44
have going for him? He's still got Kirk Cousins ahead of him, right? Right. But if you're the Broncos, w- how much, how much crap have we given Sean Payton over the past six months? Oh, 100%.
31:53
I think this is the way you gotta play Bo Nix here early. Like, we've gotta figure out as quickly as humanly possible- Yeah... what we have in this guy, or it's time to move on. And Drake May and Michael Penix Jr.
32:02
are on our graph, and Michael Penix Jr. was nine of 16 for 104 with the Falcons, but again, Drake May, Jacoby Brissett starting, with Michael Penix Jr., Kirk Cousins is starting.
32:10
So there's the ur- the urgency and the need, as you say, Kelly, to see what you have as quickly as possible.
32:16
Not quite as there for these other four franchises who are just [laughs] again, after one performance, they gotta be thrilled. The Vikings, lest we forget, J.J. McCarthy, um- Ooh...
32:26
in the Vikings' 24 to 23 win, he throws a pair of long third quarter touchdown passes, one 45 yards to Tristan Jackson in single coverage, and another 33 yards to Trent Sherfield Sr. against a busted coverage.
32:39
Um, that'll overshadow the interception he threw down the first possession as, as well as a few other shaky passes.
32:44
But they approached the game, the Vikings did, as if Sam Darnold is their likely week one starter, giving him one possession before McCarthy took over.
32:51
Um, I think Darnold led the Vikings, by the way, to the Raiders four yard line before a fourth down pass was incomplete in the end zone.
32:57
McCarthy played the next six possessions, completing 11 of 17 for 188, while also scrambling twice on third down for 18 yards. I mean, he took 19 drop backs total.
33:08
Again, 11 of 17 for 188, earning a PFF passing grade, by the way, of 84.0, which is very good. I thought he was awesome. I, I watched- They gotta be thrilled... I watched most of, most of his snaps.
33:21
I thought he looked great. A- a- and Bo, Bo Nix was impressive, too, but b- even Bo Nix, a lot of his came to, ag- against more of the, you know, backup defen- uh, defenders. J.J.
33:31
McCarthy, 90.5% of his passing yards were through the air as opposed to after the catch.
33:36
Got the ball out faster on average than Darnold, or for that matter, Gardner Minshew of the Raiders on the other side of the field there. Uh, all four franchises. Small sample size, first look, they all gotta feel good.
33:46
August MLB wins next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:01
Back on the numbers game, live from Bar Canada, the Barrage, Bar Canada at the D. Uh, it's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlack, Numbers Game, right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. We get tweets of beating the book.
34:12
Always appreciate the feedback. This is from Jack Larkin at Sport Trade. "Oh, so bummed to have missed this with, uh, Alex Kane and Gil, the panel, but know the conversations had to have been awesome."
34:23
Well, uh, Billy Walters was there, so it's kind of gamed. The game was gamed. Bruce Dobegan, "US women's basketball squeaker, the difference in USA gold medal count pushed it over 39 and a half. Who needs Caitlin Clark?"
34:35
Oh, don't start with that. But yes, Drew gets it done with the over. And Cole Hawker, that was the guy, uh, one of the, uh, the ra- uh, the, the sprinting bet on. Cole Hawker. Sprinting? Racing? What do we call it? Yeah.
34:47
The least you could do is remember his name. Yeah, I, I totally forgot. Racing. Sprinting. Racings. [laughs] What was the length? Uh, 1200, 1500 meters. Yeah, not considered a sprint.
34:57
But I guess for those guys it kind of is. So what's that called then? Yeah. Yeah. Well, it's- A race? I mean, they're going. And they're all- Are, are they all races? Only sh- only the short ones can be sprints?
35:05
Well, 200's a sprint. I mean, for... They're sprinting. I just don't know what technically is called a sprint. 1500 is not technically a sprint. No, like I get that part. Yeah. But I, I... That they feel left out then.
35:16
So- Long distance? Teasers, parlays. [laughs] That's a mid-distance, I would imagine. Teasers and parlays. "Yesterday I saw what golf's version of a sour rooter is with Matt Kuchar." Yeah, you did.
35:27
That's Crackseole term for the, for the folks who hang around the slot machines. Oh, it, we, and we didn't even- Blow smoke in your- Yeah, we didn't even mention too, Aaron Rai.
35:33
Hey, come on, man, you finally got a win on tour. Oh. It's that easy, bro. Yeah. Just, just have a guy completely collapse in front of you. It's that easy. That's how you get it done.
35:41
Oh, CRG Futures, thank you, went out of, went out of their way to, uh, to ask my, you know, to answer my question of what's the origin of going like hotcakes.
35:50
It's either, it either originated in the 17th century or in the 1800s. Not sure here. Conflicting reports. But it's, uh,
35:58
when a simple, uh, when simple cornmeal versions were sold at church bake sales and snapped up by the congregation before they went cold. Anyway, that was the Google explanation. Yeah, see, like I still don't understand.
36:10
That's, uh, like that, that's a definition of why they were so in demand? Like that doesn't, that doesn't help explain that Kelly is not happy with the work that you've done to answer our question.
36:20
[laughs] That you were too lazy to try to answer the question today. Google, Google not a good answer. That's not a good answer by Google.
36:26
Michael Burns, "I bet the Giants World Series 100, uh, 100, 10 to 1 this morning." Ian McDonald, "I had longer odds on Mark Borchardt rapping than me winning the lottery." Scott C, "Sunny, sunny, can't you see?"
36:37
[laughs] Sunny gray, biggy thing. Sorry. Uh, numbers guys- What song was it again? "Sunny, sunny, sunny, can't you see?" Okay. All right. Na-na, na-na, na-na-na-na-na.
36:47
Numbers guys, Mark Borchardt missing his calling as a lumberjack with all the wood he's laying. James Sott, "Thank God you guys extended that three-year deal. I was slacking here, plus lost power most of last week.
36:59
Thanks, uh, tornadoes in Cleveland, but email sent. Now let's talk Cincinnati Open, let's go."
37:04
Oh, uh, what he's referring to is that, uh, one of the rare days here this time of year where we don't have tennis picks on the show.
37:11
By the way, uh, thank you Sebastian Korda for hitting a plus 236 for us yesterday against Sasha Zverev, also getting the over in that match. Kelly, when we do our New Year's resolutions,
37:22
can you remind me to have as one of my New Year's res- resolutions, just skip grass season. [laughs] Just skip it. Yeah. It's only five or six weeks. Just skip it.
37:31
I, I'm gonna have to tell you every day to pass on grass, man. Like, it is a major problem, man. I see the grass, I'm like, "Hey." [laughs] But I'm just... I, what was it? Was up 26 before clay.
37:42
Clay, by the way, was more unlucky. Clay's still good. We, we went crazy in the Olympics on clay. Uh, we are, since the Olympics, up 13 more units, but grass just destroyed us in the middle. Destroyed us. Ugh, rough.
37:54
Rough. Anyway. So what- There's no, so there's no Cincinnati Open today because there's only, like, a couple matches. So we're, Toronto and Montreal extended to today. The finals are today.
38:03
I don't have a play on either final, uh, because of bad weather in Canada, both venues. Um, that ends today. By the way, Amanda Anisimova in the, uh, in the women's final against, uh, Jessie Pegula.
38:14
Um, not sure if that started, but the, um, Cincinnati, the Western and Southern Open, the tune-up for the United States Open, tennis' final major.
38:25
And, uh, the added benefit of watching the Western and Southern Open, not to, you know, besides the fact that Iga is playing and Carlitos is playing on the men's side, and I already have bet both of them to win, but is that you get to see corny Chris Collinsworth family commercials throughout the entire week and a half.
38:40
You ever seen those Western Southern Open commercials with the Collinsworths? No, I don't think I have. [laughs] Oh, it's just cringe-worthy. It's much worth watching just for those. I'll have to check that one out.
38:47
Oh, it's awful. The, the Travelers Insurance commercials have been getting to me recently. Um, so yeah, no Cincinnati open plays today, but we'll resume with those tomorrow.
38:54
And so they go two weeks of Cincinnati and then it's straight into the US Open? Uh, I want to say there's a week off. Thought there was, like, a week off or something. Yeah, okay. And then it's, uh, US Open.
39:01
Uh, Chris Heath, by the way, nice to hear, uh, Kelly, I'm 0 and 2, and both were bad beats. Ravens game under and Cowboys money line. Oof. Terms of week one.
39:11
That was the other ones of, like, like I wa- I was watching a bit of that Cowboys game last night. It, it's another good example, and I think it's the right approach b- by both those teams.
39:20
I mean, we know, we know Sean McVay kind of punts on the preseason anyways, but, like, okay, Stetson Bennett and Trey Lance. [sighs] Get out there.
39:27
Like, we're g- I would, I like the idea of playing those guys as much as possible during the presea- You need to figure out if those, so those are people worth keeping on your roster or not going forward.
39:36
Stetson Bennett got uncomfortable there, didn't it? Yeah. What was that, four interceptions? Four picks. Yikes. And they all kind of were similar looking. Yeah. There we go, boy.
39:44
He's al- he's also one of those guys that, like, I do this a lot with kickers, evaluate the pads, right? Where I'm like, you know, like how, how they're, like, not wearing anything.
39:53
I'm like, "This guy's gonna get destroyed if he ever gets hit." Stetson Bennett needs some bigger shoulder pads, man. Like, he's a small guy. Evaluate the pads. Evaluate the pads. Yeah.
40:01
Um, we, the preseason just, I don't know what it is. I am not as big of a fan of preseason as others are, clearly. But I, I, now that we're down to three games, again, it takes away, this was the week, right?
40:13
Heading into week two of a, of a four-game, of a four-game, uh, preseason arc, where we would have the Dr.
40:20
Bob play, where it's like, okay, teams that are coming off a loss versus teams that are coming off a win, was this unbelievable ATS performance. And then he had a subset, which of course Bob wouldn't share with us.
40:30
[laughs] That was even better than that. That's right, yeah. That was the whole key to it, and so he would tell us what games it applied to. But when it's three now, they don't...
40:36
When it was four, every team, with rare exception, all 32 teams played it the same way. Yeah. And it was like, okay, week three was our big push, and then week four we rested everybody, right?
40:46
Um, but now with three, some teams punt on it completely, some teams go hard, some teams wanna see this position, some teams don't. So it's, it's, there's no uniformity to it anymore.
40:55
I was surprised at how much kind of across the board starters we saw the, uh, in this, i- in week one. Now, I, I think that leaves me quite, like, does week two...
41:05
I've also for- I've also forgotten and had to remind myself, like, three times in the past month that it's, it's shortened, and that it's, uh- Yeah... four weeks.
41:12
[laughs] And then there's the, and then there's the awkward week off between then and the regular season. Right. That's the part that's the most annoying. So, 'cause, but, like, do you...
41:19
Like, I think week three's still gonna be similar to we- how week four has been. We're, we're not gonna see anybody. Like, I think you're gonna be seeing these guys in week two, and that's about it. Why risk injury, man?
41:28
Yeah, why risk it? I'm, with most of these guys, why risk it? Odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Since we talked about all those quarterbacks- Yeah... is there a bet?
41:35
Caleb Williams remains a short shot at plus 140. Jayden Daniels cut a little bit. He's down to plus 450. Remember, he was seven to one, plus 650 most of the offseason.
41:44
Marvin Harrison Jr., who, like, played very little and didn't get any targets for the Cardinals, plus 750. Malik Nabers, who's getting rave reviews at 14 to 1.
41:54
And then the Nix-McCarthy duo that we just talked about, 18 to 1 and 20 to 1 respectively. Yeah, tw- what? Twisted ankle for Nabers, I believe I saw. So we'll see- Yeah...
42:04
we'll see what the rest of his preseason, uh, looks like. The, um- I think it's Jayden or nothing. So that's what I was- Still... that's what I was just gonna ask you. So I do have bets.
42:12
I made bets when this, like, first opened up on Worthy and Keon Coleman. Keon Coleman at a longer number that's out there now. Worthy at a shorter number that's out there now.
42:23
Um, uh- I still like Worthy with my better, my, my, uh, the bet I like better on him is to lead the, the rookie receive, uh, receivers in yardage. So I have that bet. I actually like that one better.
42:34
So I have two bets there. But man, like I, I was, I was staring at these and I think it w- a- If, if you bet J.J. McCarthy, though, I can't be upset with you. I'm sorry, go ahead. What was your reason?
42:43
I don't, I don't know. I, like, are you... I don't think that's a... I still don't think he's starting. I still think we see Sam Darnold to go.
42:50
I don't think he is either, but that's one of those situations where as soon as there's a reason to put him in, he's going in. Yeah. I just, I- Regardless of what they're saying now.
42:59
I'm sitting here, and I know we're now... I, I, I'm not even trying to b- like, take too much out of one series. No.
43:05
But man, every t- every time I rethink this market I'm like, "Is this just g- at the end of the, at the end of the year, are we just gonna say Jayden Daniels, like, ran away with this thing and we're all idiots for not betting it?"
43:14
Maybe. I hope so. Like, if he, if he stays upright and is not injured- That'd be it... I, I have a feeling it's... Yeah. I think his odds should be a lot closer to Caleb's. Jayden, please stay upright.
43:24
Um, to me it's Jayden Daniels still at that number, if you haven't bet it yet. Um, but then again, if you s- I understand the reasoning for J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix at those numbers.
43:35
If you feel they're the ones who are gonna get the run. Bo Nix may start week one, and even if J.J. McCarthy doesn't, I don't think it's that crazy to think he'll start early. I don't think I, I don't think...
43:46
I personally could not bet Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison, or Malik, Malik Nabers in this market. No, I could not. The, tho- those numbers are too... I, yeah.
43:52
Give him a quarter of a- By the way, we can all lose, we can all look stupid with Marvin Harrison Jr. Too, right? Same reasons for, for Jayden Daniels. We'll be like, "Oh, Marvin Harrison scored a billion touchdowns."
44:01
Yeah. I, I- So I don't know... I think that Cardinals team's tricky, man. I mean, it's another one if Kyler, if Kyler stays upright, right? If he doesn't get hurt, like, that team could be dangerous.
44:09
By the way, I know I keep teasing the August, uh, MLB season wins. I promise I will do that before Michael Montesano, who's on the other side. Uh, college football.
44:17
Montesano, who won the booby prize at Circa, Circa millions the first year, obviously NFL picks, uh, bets as, we had him on the, uh, the air here last week on the show here on The Desk.
44:27
Bets so many different sports, and he has a ton of college football plays. We will get to each and every one of them, double digits worth, season long, next on A Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
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