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Aug 12, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 12, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 12, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
This is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. Why am I talking in staccato? I don't know. I don't know either.
0:20
Keep it going, though. It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hey-oh. Kelly Bidlin. Good show today, Kelly. Yeah, man. Looking forward to it. G- Bet Bash Week is here. Bet Bash Week.
0:33
Betbash.co for everybody who's interested. Uh, I think their panels all start tomorrow. I think they have other events, probably the networking thing or the speed dating thing probably happens today.
0:42
If- I saw, I saw Spanky directing, like, traffic basically, uh, in the, in the garage mahal. Uh, too, way too busy for me to even say hi, so I had to just walk over here. Really? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, wow.
0:54
So it's in full effect. Yep. There's some stragglers in today. Um, and we have Captain Jack in studio a little later on. So we only, we, we have one Bet Bash guest today. Tomorrow it's a cavalcade. Mm-hmm.
1:03
At least three tomorrow. Tomorrow it's Dr. Bob and Rufus Peabody and- Ed Fang... Ed Fang tomorrow. Yeah. Captain Jack today on the state of the state, the state of the sports betting industry.
1:15
We have, uh, three topics I wanna get to in the span of one segment. Big to- big picture topics we'll get to with Jack. He, of course, co-founder of Unabated, uh, which we'll discuss as well.
1:25
Drew Dincic, as always, with his Tuesday set NFL, tennis, whatever he's playing today in Cincinnati. Have you been able to catch any of the Western & Southern Open? Uh, watched a little last night. Not too much, though.
1:38
Not too much. Uh, AFC East preview. Kelly and I are, uh, backtracking. We're going back, right? We're gonna go back to some of these divisions.
1:43
Yeah, circling around, make sure we hit everything one more time before the season gets started. See how we feel, see if thoughts have changed.
1:49
Mark Borcher from under, uh, from an undisclosed location in the desert talking baseball with us. And a little, uh, look at the, a couple baseball things. Home run leader, M, um, MVP, Cy Young.
2:01
By the way, there's a change atop the Tango rankings. Oh, really? Oh, yeah. There you go. Like it's- Where's little tease... Tom Tango who has, uh, correctly picked with his Cy Young tracker
2:13
his, his ultimate numbers, I should say, at the end of the regular season. 32 of the last 38 eventual Cy Young winners, based on his formula. It's a very simple formula. We have a new leader.
2:24
Y- you kinda hinted at it yesterday, though. It is just amazing where, I, like where, these odds moving all the time, of just, i- nothing, there's so little settled. Oh, yeah. And we are August 12th.
2:35
Like, there is so little settled. Well, there's so little settled, but on the other hand, I have maintained the whole time- With the big ones, right. Yeah, with the big ones. With the... We'll get to it.
2:43
But it's like the MVP stuff to me has never changed in my mind, and I know because we do content, not just we, but the network and everybody else who does content, that you've gotta come up with some, oh, I don't know, you know, Manny Machado, an LMVP or, or Kyle Schwarber an, an LMVP.
3:01
I, I just, I've sta- stuck, stuck by what I've said the whole time, which is if Shohei... Well, we'll get to that next segment. I'm already starting that segment now. [laughs] Anyway, uh, tennis yesterday.
3:10
Can we do tennis real quick? Yeah, for sure. Uh, yesterday, um, was one of the more interesting tennis days we've ever had. I had four plays, and the first three sucked. Is that a correct term I could use on air? Yeah.
3:24
Is that all right? Uh, they all lost, and some of them in strange fashion, the Humbert one also. Humbert was like, he was up a s- he was up a break in the first set.
3:33
He was crushing Tiafoe, and then Tiafoe just pressed a button and that was the end of that. And then a funny thing happened.
3:38
Pick number four was the plus 319 dog on Terrence Atmane, spelled for Americans Terrence Atmane, against your boy Joao Fonseca. Straight set win. So- Joao goes down...
3:51
so it was a complete salvage of the day, um, [laughs] with the plus 319 dog hitting.
3:57
And today there are four more plays, Kelly, four more plays in Cincinnati as we are about to enter the business side of the, uh, the tournament in Cincinnati.
4:06
Again, the, uh, Cincinnati hard court tournament, the Western & Southern Open, is the prelim to the United States Open, tennis's fourth and final major of the year.
4:14
Now, for those who are like, "Eh, this guy always," you know, if you're new to the show and you're like, "This guy always has tennis picks at the, at the beginning of every show. What's his deal?"
4:20
Uh, uh- Dude likes to bet tennis, bruh... dude likes to bet tennis, bruh. And he also does it via the data, right? I'm not, uh, I'm not just pulling these out from you-know-where.
4:29
These are all based on hard court numbers. And today as it goes- [laughs] Oh, man... four, four large dogs. I didn't, [laughs] I didn't really look at these earlier.
4:39
Yeah, this does not usually happen, but this is what happens. Again, at VSiN.com/picks for subscribers, you get this the previous night.
4:46
And, uh, typically it is a CLV fest, not that that always manifests in wins, by the way. That's- There are, there are three names on here I've never heard before.
4:54
Do you want a crack at the, uh, pronunciations of everything? Yeah, sure. Can I do that? Kelly Bidlin pronounces tennis names, ladies and gentlemen. B- b- b- bum, Adam Walton. Good one. Well done. Nailed it. Money line.
5:04
Going- Plus 311 versus Jiri Lehecka. Nicely done. Jiri Lehecka, that's right. Thank you. Uh, Adam Walton, did you bet him last week? Uh, last week and a couple weeks before that to, w- we, when I was- Okay...
5:16
on vacation, he won as a big dog in some way, yeah. Okay, so I have heard of him before, then I just forgot about it. Uh, here's l- two names in the same match- W-... I've never heard of...
5:24
Adam Walton currently at the same price, plus 311 versus Jiri Lehecka. That's the only one on the men's side. All right, and we continue on the women's side, I believe, with- That's correct... Ella Seidel- Mm-hmm...
5:36
money line plus 264 versus McCartney Kessler. That's right. Ella Seidel's six-month hard court number's fantastic. McCartney Kessler. She's another one. Sounds like a- Yeah... sounds like a fancy one.
5:48
You think McCartney Kessler and Jensen Brooksby should date? Yes. Yes, they definitely should. To have the most gentile children ever? Ah, we, we, we gotta create the, uh- [laughs]...
5:56
we gotta create Love Island of tennis players here with, uh, with, uh- Oh, I'd watch that... with Leylah doing her whole thing. Leylah. Leylah.
6:03
C- Leylah couldn't be more, couldn't be more adorable about her dates, by the way. And she was, she, she was wide open about it, like-Like she, she's told everything.
6:10
All right, we got Ashlyn Krueger, money line plus 181, big Borussia Dortmund fan, versus Jasmine Paolini. Know that one. Krueger's a little less right now, but still playable, plus 170. Okay, Lucia Bronzetti?
6:24
Yeah, I think that's right. Or Lucia? Lucia? I think Lucia is probably correct. Okay, Lucia Bronzetti. Lucia Bronzetti, yeah. Plus 235 versus Jelena Ostapenko.
6:31
Yeah, uh, Bronzetti also a little shorter than that, but still playable, plus 221. Ostapenko is not playing her best tennis.
6:37
Neither is, neither is she or Paolini, both of whom are names that some might recognize as, uh, both are former top 20 players. Did Ostapenko ever make the top 10? I'm not sure. Maybe she did when she won the French.
6:49
Um, but neither are playing their best tennis right now, and they appear vulnerable to me on hard court. So those are the four, Adam Walton on the men's side, and then Seidel, Krueger, and Bronzetti on the ladies' side.
6:59
Nice. Um- Those, these were easy today. This was... I, I should have passed. Yeah. I should have passed on this one today.
7:05
[laughs] You should have, you should have waited for the Anastasia, uh- Whatever match that was I-... Pavlyuchenkova one. Whatever match that was I pointed out with Zhan Zhan last week, that match was- Lois Zhan Zhan...
7:15
that was one of the more absurd ones I'd ever seen. Yeah. Um, all right. So we'll see how those go. One of those is this morning. One of those is in less than an hour. Uh, MLB August wins.
7:24
We didn't really go through this yesterday, so I just wanna... We have the Rangers. That was my play. Let me just speak for myself. I have the Rangers 30 to 1.
7:31
The Rangers had come-from-behind win against the Diamondbacks yesterday to raise their August record, you ready for this? To 4 and 6 after getting swept this weekend by the Phillies. So the Rangers are, are, are distant.
7:44
But you know what this might prove to be, Kelly? Meaningless for 29 teams. Yeah, seriously. Because it, it wouldn't matter if I take the Rangers or anybody. The Brewers are 10 and 0 in August.
7:55
10 and 0 plus 43 is their run differential in case you needed tiebreakers later. They're crushing in that too, and they've got the most, or a tie for the most games left with 20.
8:06
So you, we knew coming in they had the most games that they were playing, right?
8:10
Um, the interesting thing is when you go into the current odds, by the way, do- currently the Mariners are second at eight and one, and I mentioned this yesterday briefly.
8:18
If you, if you have a Mariners ticket, we had Mariners in July. So once again, me mistiming things tremendously.
8:25
[laughs] But if we, you know, even if you have the Mariners and you're like, "Well, eight and one, only two wins behind," but you have two fewer games left. Yeah.
8:32
So it's like you're actually w- you're actually further behind. Phillies are eight and two, Guardians seven and two, and the Padres [laughs] who we had an earlier month, seven and three.
8:41
Sh- shout-out to Scott at the gym, I'll bring him up once again, who I was just on the treadmill and he just jammed his phone, uh, phone into my face, just said, "Mariners," on it.
8:48
They haven't lost since he done, he's done that. Yeah. Good. All right. You and Scott very close at the gym, by the way. Welcome to that. Yeah, we've just, we've just met up once. Okay. So now you can still bet these.
8:57
This is- This is crazy... this is one thing to talk about in, in retrospect, but you can still bet these now because the DraftKings of the world keep these up, and good on them for keeping them up. Yeah.
9:05
The Brewers are only, can I say that in quotes, "only" minus 125. Now again, the Phillies, who are second here on the board at plus 270, have two fewer wins.
9:18
Um, but how many games left do the Phillies have, uh, compared to the Brewers? Brewers have 20 left, and the Phillies, uh, let me just check on that again. I be- the Phillies have 19 left. Am I correct in that?
9:28
Um, they have, yes, no, they have eight, they have 19 left, correct. So the Mariners, who are third here, have 18 games left at plus 850.
9:36
Everybody else is 30 to one or longer, which is pretty interesting because in having 20 games left, I mean, you could still- Right... stink it up. Right. It's f- I'm, I'm not saying you should be running to bet- Yeah...
9:48
a long shot, but Gil, do you remember 12 days into a month, w- these two things. No. Having an odds-on favorite 12 days in, and then there are three teams plus 850 or shorter, and everybody else is 30 to one or longer.
10:04
Yeah. Though, if you said to me, "All right, who would you bet now?" I'm not sure I would have the, uh, the gumption, the chutzpah, the moxie to bet any of the long shots.
10:14
The Padres are the one that s- that kind of sticks with me a little bit. They're seven and three, but they only have 18 games left too, right? Mm-hmm. So it's, uh, also I should say. So that's the thing with the Brewers.
10:26
It's not a, if you have more games, it's one thing. It doesn't necessarily g- you're gonna mean a, you're gonna win a month. It doesn't mean that.
10:32
But if you come out 10 and 0 and you still have more games left than anybody else, it is a major advantage the way that they're playing baseball, and it doesn't hurt that they're three and 0 in one-run games.
10:42
The Marin- by the way, all this comes down to the one-run games. Mariners are three and 0, excuse me, uh, Brewers are three and 0, Mariners four and 0, Phillies two and 0, Guardians four and one, Padres two and 0.
10:52
Those are the top five teams in, in one-run games. By contrast, our Rangers one and four after their one-run victory yesterday. What's, what's, uh- So, so, so would I take the Padres at 35 to 1?
11:04
Would I take the Mariners at plus 850? The answer is probably no. What, uh, I gotta get a, I, I, I gotta make a futures play, uh- On?... for baseball. I don't know. You know, any- I'm, I'm gonna leave this open.
11:16
I'm gonna l- no, for like a World Ser- I need a World Series ticket or something. I love my Tigers-Padres matchup. So, I, okay, I was gonna ask you was, like, do I- Love... I'm feeling the Padres too.
11:25
I've been feeling them for the past, like, couple years. Yeah. I mean, it's kinda burnt me, but I think I wanna get involved with some Padres somehow. 66 to 1 is what I have that matchup at.
11:34
I, I, I just feel like the post-season setting with that bullpen favors the Padres. Knocking at the door. One game back in the NL West too, by the way.
11:46
Coming back, uh, baseball awards, and we have a new leader in the Cy Young tracker next. [upbeat music] A numbers game VSiN, the sports betting network Hey there, uh, Kelly. Do you wanna bet smarter? Hell yeah.
12:04
Start with smarter insights then. All right. Right now you can check out Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, Steve Makinen's MLB bullpen betting systems, and Matt Youmans' final fast food rankings. Yes, indeed.
12:15
Well, that all sounds cool, Gil. Where can I get it at? Well, funny you ask. Wes Reynolds', uh, BMW Championship preview's also there, Tyler Shoemaker's WNBA picks, and Lou Finicaro's UFC 319 preview.
12:26
Right now, to answer your question, Kelly, you can sign up for as little as $9.99 to access all the VSiN Pro articles. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. $9.99, that's, like, less than $10.
12:38
We should do the whole show like this. [laughs] Like we're having a sincere conversation. "Why, funny you ask, Kelly Bidlin." [laughs] We get tweets to be in the book. Management must've let us up that, eh.
12:49
Yeah, it's touch and go. [laughs] Mike Rouse, Mike Rouse, "Can't we blame the early Monday tennis results yesterday?" He's talking about the, uh, the losses to begin the day.
12:58
He goes, "On the listener who tweeted about the start of the Joint match, total jinx." Oh, he's talking about our buddy, Joe C., who in Joint was up a break. He was like, "Oh, I'm so glad I got in the Joint bet." Oof.
13:11
Oof. I like listener on listener blame. Yeah. Sorry, Joe, still love you. LosVegas514, "Yo, I was listening to your last segment yesterday about Arby's in Rockville, Maryland."
13:21
Oh yeah, we were talking about Youmans' fast food rankings. He says, "Let me tell you, that is no longer there as of November, 2024." Oh my God. "However, it was there for five decades on Rockville Pike.
13:33
I remember it as a youngster as well. #nostalgia."
13:36
Yeah, I was mentioning with Arby's, 'cause Youmans has them ranked top 10, and what I was saying that the, I, what I love most about Youmans' s- uh, fast food rankings, besides the fact that I've never even seen one or two, let alone eaten there, uh, Portillo's and, uh, Culver's, uh, is that he had the, uh,
13:52
he had the wherewithal to say, "I don't care what the too cool for school crowd says, I'm putting McDonald's, I'm putting KFC, and I'm putting Arby's up there-" Mm-hmm, mm-hmm... up high.
14:01
And I mentioned as a kid in DC there was an Arby's on Rockville Pike, and that's what LosVegas is talking about. Like, we, it would be a road trip to the one Arby's on Rockville Pike in Rockville, Maryland.
14:09
I'll say it again, love Arby's. Can't, I don't, I won't, I don't get any of their roast beef sandwiches of any kind. [laughs] I think the rest of the menu's good.
14:18
You, do you go there for the Euros, for the Euros now, the giant- I've, I've gotten one before... yeah. I have had one before. Quite tasty. Quite tasty. I have had one of those before.
14:25
Uh, let's do some baseball here, uh, real quick. Uh, this is, let's start with the home run leader market. Currently Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners with 45 home runs, 45 Jimmy Jacks,
14:39
followed, this is Major League Baseball we're talking here, followed by Shohei and Schwarber, both with 41. Aaron Judge and Eugenio Suarez, Geno Suarez, each have 37. I believe those are updated. Let me, uh- Yeah...
14:53
let me make sure those are correct. Yeah. All right. So odds to lead Major League Baseball in home runs, then sort of follow suit with their, Cal, with those.
15:00
Cal Raleigh is minus 200 to finish with the league, with the, uh, Major League lead in home runs. Shohei plus 320, Kyle Schwarber four to one, Judge 14 to one, and Suarez 30 to one. Now, just a bit of
15:15
sort of recency stats on each. Di- didn't Shohei, uh, homer h- last night? Uh, he did. Third time in three games. Yeah, this didn't move. Well, Cal Raleigh also homered for his third time in three games. Oh, okay.
15:28
Yeah, th- th- good, no, 'cause it was a good question b- by you, 'cause I typed these up before games started yesterday- Yes... and the odds have not moved.
15:35
So Cal Raleigh, seven homers in his last, l- let's use 24 games. Most recent 24 games for each of these guys. All right. Why'd I pick 24? Eh, I don't know. I'm sure it'll be, uh, there'll be a reason. Eh, not really.
15:49
It just kind of checks out nicely. I love that. Uh, Cal Raleigh, seven homers in his last 24 games. As I mentioned, three in his last three. Shohei, 10 homers in his last 24 games.
16:01
As I just mentioned, three homers in his last three games. Schwarber, 12 homers in his last 24 games, so he has really been the one that has, uh, gone deep the most of late.
16:14
And then the, the last two guys, and let me just eliminate Judge and Suarez. Sorry about this Judge fans, but the injury, uh, is too much.
16:21
Aaron Judge, seven homers in his last 24 games, zero in his last seven, six of which have come since he's come back from injury.
16:29
And then, uh, Eugenio Suarez, eight homers in his last 24, only one in his last 17 ballgames.
16:37
So I would throw Judge and Suarez out, not only because they're eight behind Raleigh, but also they're just not doing it right now,
16:44
and you'd have to expect them to turn it on all of a sudden, which is possible of course, but you got, you're eight behind and you're not doing much right now.
16:51
So this really to me is a three-man market, Raleigh, Ohtani, and Schwarber. And the question is, I certainly wouldn't lay the minus 200. That's not fun. Even with a four home run lead, I don't think it's a lock.
17:05
So it comes down to would you bet Ohtani at plus 320 or Schwarber, uh, Schwarber at four to one? I wouldn't hate you if you bet either of those two. Would I? Probably not. Probably not where I'd put my money
17:18
with all our betting choices, but it's, it's, but if you're saying you must, it's either Ohtani or Sw- or Schwarber. I'm gonna shop around town and see if these are up somewhere.
17:28
I'm, I think I'm gonna put a small little bet in on Ohtani and Schwarber. Okay. Those are the two. To me- Just b- I'll bet them both and just hope they c- one of those guys beats out Raleigh...
17:36
those are the only two bets that make sense to me here. Um, AL MVP and NL MVP. It's interesting odds though, so, like, okay, so, uh, 'cause we can translate this to AL MVP a little bit. Like, d- I'll ask the question.
17:47
Do you think Judge, are there concerns over Judge, Judge, and he's not gonna be able to flip the switch and get back on track here? Is that- Not to me there aren't. Okay.
17:56
See, uh, that's the other thing we were talking first segment a little bit about this. I just, I really think- With content, people, you know- Oh...
18:03
oh, let's, or is Cal Raleigh MVP or, or, or in the NL we talked about briefly. But Judge is -150 for AL MVP. Mm-hmm. Cal Raleigh's +110, is the numbers I saw last night. Maybe they moved overnight.
18:15
Judge still has a way better slash line than Raleigh. 337 batting average, 446 OBP, 691 Sluggo. Raleigh 247, 354, 593, so Judge better in all three.
18:29
However, as we mentioned when it comes to homers now, 45 homers to 37, and in RBI, because of Judge's absent, account, uh, absence with the counting stats, 98 to 86.
18:40
Will this come down to which of the teams make the playoffs? So right now both are in the inside looking out. Obviously the Yankees more precarious position.
18:50
By the way, we're showing -130, -105 now, so this got tighter- Is it DraftKings?... from when I saw them last night. These are DraftKings numbers. So it, I think that's what it should be.
19:01
I think that's kind of what it... I think Judge has the slightest of edges. I think if both teams make the playoffs,
19:07
listen, if, if Judge does nothing the rest of the way, obviously it's a different story, but I expect Judge to become Judge here very quickly again. That's, and that's where I was at.
19:15
So recent form is not concerning you too much, where Raleigh's- Right... Raleigh's on the rise again, right? And Judge is- We s- well, Judge is, he's trying- Sliding...
19:23
trying to sort of find his way again after the injury. If Judge just returns to Judge form, we still have a quarter of the season left. Yeah. That's what I'm saying.
19:30
It's like we, we really can't make too much of a snap judgment right now. So to me, Judge is still the proper favorite. But Raleigh's obviously, it's, it's obviously a two-man race.
19:39
Nobody else has a shot and everybody else is reflected in the market 100 to 1 or longer. NL MVP, Shohei's -20,000. Yeah, that, that's done. Schwarber 18 to 1, Machado 80 to 1, PCA, Pete Crow-Armstrong 100 to 1.
19:56
Shohei's a better slash than all of them, with the exception of Machado's batting average. He's got 41 homers, 77 RBI, so again, tied with Schwarber there in the NL. Others have more RBI.
20:11
Schwarber has more RBI than he does, and I think Pete Crow has a w- Pete Crow-Armstrong has one more RBI than him. But I've always said the same thing about this mark, and I'll say it again.
20:19
It comes down to Shohei's pitching, and Shohei's pitching is the end all be all to the discussion, and that's why he's priced as he is.
20:25
He's only pitched 19 innings thus far, but in those 119 innings, a 2.37 ERA, a 1.11 whip and 25 Ks against five walks.
20:33
So I'm not saying 19 innings pitched is, is a differentiator currently, but he's gone from one inning to two innings to three innings to four innings. He pitches again tomorrow.
20:42
You know, as long as the innings keep continuing, and let's say he ends up with 50 innings pitched and he has these kinds of numbers, it's not even a discussion. So that's that. Now Cy Young, AL and NL.
20:53
AL, Skubal -425, Crochet +480. Tarik Skubal of the Tigers, Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox. -425 to +480.
21:04
Kelly Bidlin, I'm here to tell you that in Tom Tango's Cy Young tracker, where he has picked eventually, again, the final regular season numbers. We're obviously not a final net right now.
21:14
But in the final numbers, he's picked 32 of the eventual 38 Cy Young winners, AL and NL, the last 19 years. He's got Crochet at 66 points and Tarik Skubal at 64.4. Wow. How about that?
21:28
And the reason is, again, it's all done by a very simple formula. Innings pitch divided by two minus earned runs plus strikeouts divided by 10 plus wins. And Crochet has a couple more wins, right? He's 13 and four.
21:44
Skubal had a bad outing last time out. He's 11 and three. Crochet's ERA is.11 better. Skubal has him on whip. But it's, it might be closer than we think, and maybe, according to Tango's numbers, maybe even Crochet.
22:00
By the way, we're showing now this is s- shorter than what I just said. So this moved even from last night. Skubal -200, Crochet +150. Getting tight. Is this, uh, uh, uh, this is blasphemous to me.
22:13
Skubal has been so awesome every time I've seen him, Gil. Th- this, this, this sounds ridiculous. But like you said, it changes every time. Don't ask me how many games I've s- watched Garrett Crochet pitch, though.
22:21
[laughs] And NL Cy Young, Skeens is -650, and he ought to be. So okay, so where are we at with that? Is that- And way ahead in, and way ahead in the Cy Young tracker... done or not done yet? Is that done?
22:31
Did we finally get- Done... past the Skeens? We're worried about- Done... the innings thing. NL Cy Young, done. Just 'cause the other guys don't have that many more wins than he does.
22:39
They have, like, Wheeler has 10, Sanchez has 11 on the Phillies. Skeens has seven. That would, that should be their advantage where they crush it, but they're not crushing it. So that one's over to me.
22:49
Coming back on A Numbers Game. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Oh yeah, Survivor, part six tonight. Circus Survivor, the quest for $14.2 million.
23:03
10-part documentary series following the drama, strategy, and heartbreak inside the world's largest legal football contest.
23:09
You can catch the final five episodes starting tonight through the 16th at 9:00 PM Eastern, so episode six is tonight. Missed an episode? You can watch the first five now at vsin.com/survivor.
23:21
You know, uh, we should really remind ourselves to get our entries. I feel like we- We're fine...
23:26
I feel like we've entered the period of time where we're like, "Oh, oh, oh, I'm gonna start to get dream," like wake up from dreams like, "Oh my God, I didn't enter yet." I'm not worried about it. I'm not.
23:34
After last year.
23:35
After last year I'm no longer worried about it, 'cause I think we always had these concerns before, but then we, we were at the D last year and the literally sign-up location was four feet away from where we were broadcasting.
23:47
Yeah. And now we just got that right down there. I'm not worried about it. M- I will be within the last few days. [laughs] I'm not worried about it. I can guarantee you I will be within the last few days.
23:54
Now, maybe I should be more worried about it, though. What was it, two years ago?
23:58
It was two years ago, Matt Brown and I were doing contest signups on the last day and hitting a couple places in town, and By the time we arrived at Circa, they were, like, getting close to the shutdown period, and I, we r- we walked in here, Gil, and there were lines, like 40 people back.
24:17
I had to maybe call in a favor. Oh, yeah, that's right. And by call in a favor, I mean I yelled at Jeff Benson behind him. That's right. "Jeff, I need help. I need help." I do seem to recall that. We got tweets.
24:27
Be in the book Larry Fresh. "A women's tennis Love Island would be amazing. Can we get Delicious on that Love Island too? How would Kelly feel if Zane Bidlin was a contestant in 2047?" Zane Bidlin.
24:39
Is that what you named your kid? I thought it was Zizu. Yeah, I thought we were going with Zizu too. Yeah. Hmm. ThreeJackH3131, "I'm sorry, but how can Kelly go to Arby's and not get roast beef?
24:48
Roast beef and cheddar with honey sauce is an all-time top five sandwich. There was a time when you could get five for $5. Talk about positive EV." No.
24:56
Would you like to describe the roast beef sandwich that you were doing off-air at Arby's? Uh, yeah, sure. I don't, yeah, I don't really care. Heck, I think it's a great restaurant.
25:03
I still eat at it every once in a while. I just get other things. But no, just the, the roast beef that's just been like, it's like the hotdog sitting in hotdog water, you know?
25:11
It's just, like, been, it's just, like, in water, and you get warm roast beef. Like... Oh, it sounds delicious. I, I don't, it doesn't do anything for me. I'll take a cold roast beef sandwich, a deli sandwich any day.
25:23
Steven Brosek1870, "Tennis names are like the New York Times crossword. The pronunciations get harder later in the week." I'm not sure that's true. And Kevin Ryan, "Gil, do you or Kelly ever go to Scottsdale?
25:32
Because there's a Culver's and a Portillo's within a quarter mile from each other, and both of the restaurants are near the TPC where the Waste Management is held every year."
25:41
Well, we have a, uh, someone who's, uh, from an undisclosed location in the desert. Maybe it's close to Scottsdale. I'm not giving anything away. Mark Borchert joins us now, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
25:51
You can follow him at Basewinner, basewinner.com. Mark, have you, uh, ever gone to a Portillo's or Culver, and specifically the ones in Scottsdale?
26:01
I have not been to that Culver's there, but there's a, there's a Culver's right next to my wife's office, so I'll hit that pr- every now and then. I'm sure it's really good for my health. I've, I usually don't.
26:13
You know, I try not to poison my body, Gil. [laughs] But like, gosh, they have a butter burger there. You know? Ooh. They, they put butter on the burger. I mean, that can't be good for your heart.
26:22
I, I didn't tell my cardiologist that, but, uh... No, I know, I know where you're talking about, the, the, the Porti- Portillo's and the Culver's.
26:30
But it's, it, more importantly from a baseball standpoint, it's close to Salt River Fields. So, yeah. Wow. Very close there.
26:36
You could probably, uh, you could probably walk off your meal walking down to Salt River Fields. A spring training staple, Salt River Fields, as well. Uh, all right, Mark.
26:45
Yeah, you, and the one time you went there, you couldn't get me in. You're like, "Dude, I can't get you a ticket." [laughs] So I remember that. That was, yeah. Yeah. Could, didn't have many favors to call in back then.
26:54
Uh, all right, Mark, let's, uh, let's look at these divisions. And specifically, you know, again, your numbers have been pretty steadfast on the Yankees, as I recall. They've been s- pretty steadfast on the Dodgers.
27:06
Let's talk about, let's talk about the Yankees first. AL East, Blue Jays are atop the, uh, division. Red Sox are four and a half back. Yankees are six back.
27:13
Is there a play on either the Red Sox or the Yankees, or do you think the Blue Jays get home on this? I think the Blue Jays are favored by my numbers. They're 56%, but the Yankees are 31% to win the division, and- Hmm...
27:26
you know, I think they're not priced like that. I think they're, they're priced, like, plus 400. I think that's a good bet, Gil. Four to one on the Yankees to win the divisions. It is- Yeah.
27:33
I like having Mark on because he is, there's a little bit of voice of reason with him, right? Yeah, yeah. Like, people like to, to kill the Yankees when they're down, but okay. Interesting.
27:41
But- He says my Yankees bet is still alive. By the way. Yeah, that's right. What's your bet again, Mark? Minus 220 from, like, three weeks ago. [laughs] Bet it at the worst possible time, Mark.
27:49
Mark, you gotta teach him how to run the bases in the field. [laughs] That's the other thing you have to do. Uh, what about the AL Central? Tigers, six and a half game lead over the Guardians.
27:58
Tigers are still winning that, right? They're good, yeah. Yeah. I think they have... Let's see. I'm trying to look and see what their... Oh, to win the division, Gil, it's 97.5%. Ooh. Man. Okay.
28:11
So yeah, I think that they've got that, that sewn up. It- And they got a good team. You, you gotta look at the components that, that kinda power the ratings and stuff, and they're, they're better than Cleveland.
28:22
So I mean, you know, Cleveland's behind them, so it just, it makes sense that from, from a logic standpoint. AL West, Astros, one game lead over the Mariners, six and a half over the Rangers.
28:33
Yeah, this, uh, this one's, uh, uh, 50/50 for me, but I have Seattle at 49.5%. I think there's s- there's a little bit of value. I think they were, like, plus 125. Uh, but I'm, I'm really bullish on this Mariners team.
28:48
You know, if you look at the, uh, you know, offensive components, the defensive components, they're better than the Dodgers and they're number one in baseball, Gil.
28:58
So I think that there's, there's some opportunity in the futures market. It might not be in that particular bet, but, uh, you know, maybe to win, to win the World Series, Gil. Yeah.
29:07
That's the thing with this, it's like... Uh, by the way, I feel this way about the Washington Commanders.
29:11
I've likened them to a baseball team that it's sorta like they may not win their division, but if you get them in the playoffs, that's not the team you wanna play kinda thing.
29:20
And, uh, by the way, Astros minus 150 to win the AL West, Mariners plus 120, so priced similarly to what Mark was talking about. Not quite, but close. The rank, the- I think one of the things... Sorry, Gil. No, go ahead.
29:30
Sorry to be, to, to, to jump in there, but because I wanted to say this, 'cause one of the things that I'm not pricing in is the, I think there's a home field advantage in Seattle that we're not seeing. Hmm.
29:42
And because we, uh, we don't have, uh, a, the, the, the playoff data to kinda support this, I think they'll have a distinctive advantage if they get some home games in the playoffs.
29:53
You look at how they've done regular season-wise, uh, at home, this is since 2023, so the last three years, uh, if you bet 'em, if you blanket bet 'em and you're, you're only down, like, two-tenths of a percent.
30:07
And you say, "Well, you're still losing," but Yeah, that's really, like, if you can break even b- blanket betting a team with all the juice, that goes to show you that I don't think it's being valued enough in the market, uh, the, the home field advantage that they have.
30:21
So I think the Seattle team, I mean, gosh, you look at the best offense in baseball right now. Uh, and then bullpen-wise they're top 10, and the starting pitching's really good too.
30:31
So you, to throw out together, I think that that's, that's kind of the team to focus on for, for the post-season, Gil.
30:37
Uh, National League, Phillies have a six-game lead over the Mets, Brewers have a six-and-a-half game lead over the Cubs, uh, and then the Dodgers with only a one-game lead over the Padres.
30:46
Is there a bet in any of those three? There's a little bit of value. I just looked at that, and there's some value with the Cubs. I...
30:54
You know, the Brewers are just defying gravity, but they're, they have the advantage on the Cubs. Even with that, I have the Cubs with a 27% chance to win that division. So, uh, they're getting value.
31:05
I think it's like plus 450, something like that, in the market. And then, uh, the Phillies are 86.5 to win that division. Oof. And then the Mets are the 13.5. And then Dodgers and Padres, Dodgers 68%, Padres 31%.
31:21
I thought that price was kind of lousy, uh, both ways for, for, for the Padres. But there, you're still a little bit of value with the Padres.
31:28
You know, I was lucky enough to get down on the Padres at plus 750, so I'm liking that. But, uh, that's kind of how the percentages shake out with those particular teams, Gil. Okay.
31:36
So Padres, still no value currently is what you're saying. Your, your number's one thing. There's a little bit. It's like- Yeah... I think 31% is like- Yeah... plus 220 or something like that, and then they're plus 250.
31:47
So a little bit, but, uh, uh, there was a lot, uh, you know. Yeah. When they, after the deadline, they really shaped up good and, and, uh, I think they still do. Uh, that'll be interesting to see, you know, how that
32:01
N- National League, uh, plays out. Uh, the Dodgers pitching's still so good, so, uh, it's, it's, they're gonna be hard to beat, I think. What do you play today, Mark?
32:12
Well, speaking of the Yankees, uh, I'm gonna go with the Yankees, a New York parlay, Gil. Uh, Yankees, Mets, uh, I think it pays, uh, well, probably about, about one-and-a-half to one. It, it, Rodon's been really good.
32:26
You look at his strikeout percentage, uh, last 17 median, it's n- it's in the 98th percentile. He's got really good command, uh,.19 BBK. And then they're going up against this, this Minnesota team.
32:40
I, I, their bullpen, they got rid of all their guys, so they're 20th in baseball from a bullpen standpoint.
32:45
You know, the Yankees bullpens, they've blown a lot of games, and, uh, uh, it's really kind of hit home, 'cause I've, I've had them in a couple games that they've blown.
32:53
But if you look at the component ratings for their bullpen, sixth in baseball, still really good, and their offense is third in baseball.
33:00
And then if you look at the Mets, well, the Mets, their bullpen's second in baseball. Offensively, they are second in baseball as well. So I think the New York parlay.
33:08
The other thing too is I w- I wanna do the Arizona team, uh, to go over, Arizona, Texas over eight and a half. And I think that... Do we have a little bit of time? Sure. Just, just real quick.
33:20
Arizona's components would suggest an over team, but they haven't really done that over the last month. But I think that that's, that's an aberration. Uh, I think they're gonna be an over team, uh- Mark...
33:30
running the, running the season out, yeah. All right. So New York, New York parlay, and then the Arizona, Texas over today from Mark. Base winner. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. Hey, thanks, Gil.
33:40
Coming back with some football talk. AFC East next on The Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
The NFL season is almost here, so close you can taste it. VSiN is on the clock tomorrow, 4:00 PM Eastern.
34:03
10 of your favorite hosts go head-to-head in the 2025 VSiN Pro Football Futures Draft, battling to lock in the best season-long NFL props before the odds shift.
34:12
Catch all the action live on VSiN tomorrow at 4:00 PM Eastern. JVT on the clock with pick number one tomorrow. Five categories in this, Kelly. Five categories.
34:24
Everybody, uh, I think, picks twice from each of these categories, if I'm not mistaken. Uh, and the categories are, you, I can tell you're, you're, you're excited for the categories, uh,
34:36
season win overs, season win unders, uh, stat leaders, season-long individual player props, and what's the fifth one? I'm already forgetting the fifth one. Divisions. Division winners. So those are the categories.
34:50
By the way, with division winners, how can we not duplicate, though, on those? Well, I guess we, well, let's, I understand that we can't. That's gonna be tough, though, because...
34:58
Oh, I just, I think I just voiced a strategy. Never mind. [laughs] I, I mean, I'm sure you can pick different teams in, in a division. No, no, you can. You can, but I'm just saying. Never mind, I, I don't wanna...
35:11
Yeah, you get what you, you, you- Yep... you feel what I'm- Yep... sending out there? Yep. Okay. Yeah. Uh, that's tomorrow, 4:00 PM Eastern, with our host. Are you ready for this?
35:18
'Cause Mitch and Paul are gonna step aside. It's usually during, uh, this is during Follow the Money hours. Dustin Sweetolson is your ring master, your master of ceremonies. [laughs] Ring master.
35:29
[laughs] Oh, he's gonna do a great job. This should be very entertaining. All right. Very entertaining, and a lot of good bets, uh, given out there. Have you started making a list? Oh, yeah. I got my list. O- oh. Yeah.
35:40
The list is completed. Yeah, pretty much. Wow, okay. The problem is is that somebody's inevitably gonna take one of your picks, right? And so then you gotta- Y- yes. Yeah. Yes. That's the issue. Yes.
35:49
For everybody involved that's listening to us right now, come up with, uh, at least five extra picks. Yeah. JoeC714, I didn't know the score of the match yesterday. He was the guy, J- Joe C.
36:01
was the guy who mentioned the joint thing, and so he was accused of jinxing our, our early picks yesterday. He said, "Was trying to be funny. Got my joint in the morning." No? Okay. Super jerk chimes in this morning.
36:12
He goes, "I never knew there were 50 different fast food chains in the country. Who eats this crap?" Matt Humans eats this crap. [laughs] You ask a question, I'll give you an answer. He's a medical marvel. He can do it.
36:23
Man's incredible. Seriously, one day in the future, long after he, you know, many years from now when he, when, when he's no longer with us, there should be a, a study. How is he able to overcome this?
36:36
You mean when he, uh- Three to five meals at a fast food place every day. I don't know if he's... Is he still doing that? Yeah. I don't know if he's still doing that. I, I read the pre, I read the preamble.
36:45
Is still- So he says he's doing... Oh, okay, still in there? Okay. Yeah. The, uh, and yes, by the y- yes, when he, uh, when he passes at the ripe old age of 148 years old. That's right. [laughs] We're all gone before.
36:56
Then everybody will know, yes, there should be studies done. Rick Olea, "Gil, please, we must all know. What is your secret roast beef sandwich spot?" Arby's, Rockville Pike, Rockville, Maryland. Oh, it's gone.
37:05
That's how secret it is. Jaco Bellis, "As with anything, definitely shop around for the Cy Young numbers. Caesars has Crochet at plus 475 versus plus 150 at DK." Ooh, that's a big difference.
37:16
And Last Name Nash, "Kudos to Mark being able to make his point before the hard out. A true pro in the industry." You hear that, where he's like, "Do I have time?" And he knocked it out.
37:23
All right, AFC East, Kelly Bidlin, "We all agree the Buffalo Bills are the cream of the crop and the crop of the cream, right?" Mm-hmm. Beating hard times, that is my dream. Um- Yeah, for sure. Totally...
37:33
no question about that. Little Curtis blow for you this morning. Yeah, thank you. Um, our buddy Cleve does such a great job in his preview. Was looking at his AFC teams yesterday.
37:45
Such a great job of sort of, uh, isolating luck factors from the previous year. So if you had to say anything negative about the Buffalo Bills, and you'd have to search, right? Oh, that's fine. Get, feed me this.
37:57
It's okay. Okay. I'm ready for this. You'd have- I've, I've seen this stuff, yeah... you'd have to search for it, right? Including in Cleve's write-up. Yeah.
38:02
And what Cleve had to say was, you know, eighth lowest adjusted games lost due to injury. Okay, that's big. Yeah. Red zone- There's something to be aware of... red zone efficiency was second. Oh.
38:13
That tends to sometimes regress. Team that can e- that can replicate that in my mind. Turnover luck number one in net EPA from turnovers. From turnovers? Yeah. Yeah, okay. That's something you need to be aware of.
38:24
Basically, best injury luck in the league among the offensive line after finish second, after finishing second healthiest in 2023.
38:31
They faced eight of the 10 most injured teams in the league by adjusted games loss last year, and they did an incredible job holding onto the football, fumbling on offense the least amount in the NFL, and recovering those that, that did hit the ground at the third highest rate.
38:44
Remember, fumble is all luck. Fumble recovery is just fumble luck. Mm-hmm. And on defense, they forced the most fumbles in the league and recovered them at the third highest rate.
38:52
By the way, the, the, their ability to force turnovers on defense masked a lot of defensive mediocrity, let's put it, last year. Uh, 100%. 100%. So that, the, if you were looking for something...
39:05
Now, everything else is glorious, beginning with, of course, Josh Allen. They're, they're not bad up front. Yeah. The secondary's still a nightmare. Uh, it's gonna be a nightmare this year.
39:12
The, the, the pass rush is gonna have to get home 'cause that secondary can be picked on. Even with all that, best team by far in the division.
39:19
Best team by far in the division, best team to me in the AFC, best team in the NFL to me. I have bet them most wins in the NFL. Um, I have not bet these yet, but I have brought it up on the show.
39:28
I will bet over a win total, um, 12 and a half I think is plus money I saw out there. I will bet over their win total though too, 'cause it's kinda like the, it's kinda like the outright bet in golf.
39:40
You don't want Bills to finish with 14 wins and you to somehow have missed out on the most wins market, right? Yeah. Like, you might as well bet both. So I already bet the most wins.
39:50
I will bet over that, uh, over the win total. I'm also going to look into...
39:55
I, I thought more shops were gonna post more of these markets, 'cause I feel like they did in the past, Gil, but the, um, the last undefeated team is up places. I've seen that. Yeah.
40:05
The win streak props I haven't seen as much. I have not seen those. The Buffalo's schedule, they start off with the Ravens. Oh boy, is it real light after that.
40:15
So I am gonna load up on some prop bets with the Bills of last undefeated team, longest winning streak, that sort of thing. Buffalo Bills fifth easiest schedule. Patriots, by the way, have second easiest.
40:25
Bills fifth easiest. Four home games through week five. Four toughest opponents all at home. Baltimore week one, Kansas City week nine, Cincinnati week 14, Philadelphia week 17. Yep.
40:37
I love, you and I had discussed this a lot, 'cause this was a, this was the fourth down thing with the comma- uh, with the Commanders last year, right? Right.
40:43
Where so- there are some teams that are, that is gonna be more sustainable with. The, the Bills, y- you would, you would expect regression. I'm sure there could be some.
40:53
But the red zone efficiency, if there's one team, they're the, they are the team I'm least worried about that with in the NFL 'cause they have the greatest red zone cheat code in the NFL with Josh Allen. Yep.
41:04
Remember the one where he sc- [laughs] was it the regular season game against the Chiefs and he scored J- uh, Josh Allen up from, like, the 20 yard line or something and, and, uh, Jim Nantz, in the most hyperbolic way, go, "That's the greatest play of the NFL season."
41:17
I'm like, "Easy, Jim. No award then." [laughs] Uh, as far as the other three teams, let me just say something real briefly, right? And Cleve points this out in his preview very well.
41:26
We highlighted Aaron Schatz' and Warren Sharp's, let's highlight Cleve's here, which is, you know, Tua, when Tua plays, the Dolphins are actually really good and that, and, and this...
41:36
People should not lose sight of this.
41:38
In the 10 games that Tua started and finished, they were six and four, the offense ranked eighth best in the NFL by EPA, fourth on dropbacks, and in all other games where a backup started, you're talking about Huntley, Skyler, and Boyle, Miami was two and four and scored a total of just 80 points on offense, 13.3 points per game.
41:58
So, by the way, their offensive line was horrific, 32nd in adjusted line yards, or as we like to call it, dead last. So I guess all I'm saying is, yes, that's a huge if, can Tua stay healthy? But if he stays healthy
42:11
Hey, that short passing game that he loves so much- Bro... they're good. New England, let me just say, and we'll get your comments here at the end. I just wanna give one other thing.
42:19
New England, for all the hype of Rabel and D- and Drake May, they, they tried to retool their offensive line, and they ended up with Will Campbell, Garrett Bradbury, and Morgan Moses. And as Cleave says, Campbell,
42:34
short arms, might have to play guard. Moses, solid for an 11-year career, but he did post the worst PFF blocking grade of his career last year.
42:41
And if they s- you know, and the, and the deal with, uh, Bradbury is [laughs] this is a quote, "He's not good." So that's...
42:48
And by the way, Stefan Diggs coming off an ACL, so there's, I mean, a lot of injury questions with them. And then the Jets, just I'll distill it to one sentence. Justin Fields has a ceiling.
42:57
The Jets are gonna try to have a r- big running game with Fields and Brees, but what if they fall behind? Then what do they do without any really big weapons besides Garrett Wilson on the outside?
43:08
And the defense, just post solid last year, sucked, fell off a cliff. So of those three, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, what say you? What's the best bet of all of it? I'm gonna go a quick, quick hit comments on each one.
43:22
I'm a long-term believer in what the Patriots and even what the Jets are doing. I think there's young talent on that Jets team. I think Aaron Glenn's gonna be a good head coach. Hmm.
43:32
I think this could take a whi- this might take a couple years. I don't think Justin Fields is the answer. You're gonna have to move on from that eventually. I am high on Drake May. I, I love Rabel.
43:43
I just think this roster still has holes, as you t- brought up. I think offensive line, the defense, everybody's getting... I think everybody's getting too excited about this defense too quick. The Dolphins,
43:54
things that have happened in training camp have held me back from making these bets, Gil. I still think I'm going to throw in an alt over under wind total, 'cause what, what if- Dol- Dolphins. Dolphins... Dolphins.
44:05
What if everybody is just healthy? That's an, that's the thing. That's why I went, and this was in the Vsan Pro Football betting, Betting Guide. That's why I ultimately went Bill's Dolphins Exacta. Yeah. One, two.
44:16
Just... And then my last line was, "Don't let me down, Tua," which is also my way of saying, "Just stay healthy, please." I think they're alt over or they're alt under hits. I, I, I don't even think- Yeah...
44:25
it's, it's the in between. We'll come back. Drew Dincic, tennis in the NFL. On the other side, it's a numbers game at Vsan. The Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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