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Aug 12, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 12, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 12, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. However you're taking us in, we certainly are grateful for it.
0:20
Any way pleases us. Kelly's still waiting for, uh, someone to do all those methods, all those platforms at the same time. That is correct. No takers. People are like, "That sounds dumb." Zero. It's Gil Alexander.
0:32
That's Kelly Bidlin, by the way, producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
0:35
Captain Jack standing by, the commissioner of sports betting, Kelly, I don't know if you know that, commissioner of sports betting, uh, to talk about the state of the state, state of the industry.
0:43
A little later on in the hour he'll be in studio courtesy of BetBash, Spanky's sports betting conference, the best sports betting conference there is.
0:51
Uh, and Drew Dinsick standing by momentarily to talk, uh, football, maybe have some tennis picks for us. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. JasonH11, "Come on, Kelly. Arby's large roast beef with Arby's sauce is the shizzle.
1:01
Add a large curly fry and a Dr. Pepper and you have a meal for a king." Yeah, just can't, just can't get there. Can't get there with the, with the beef. I loved Dr. Pepper as a kid. I don't like it as much as an adult.
1:12
This is also like my mustard thing, though. Yeah. I know we're just, we're gonna not, we're gonna not stop getting tweets on this. No, don't do it. Like, "I don't like mustard." Don't do it. "I don't like mustard." Nah.
1:21
And, and, and the al- the always the follow-up question, "Even honey mustard?" Like yes, no, anything that has mustard. I hate mustard. Right now we're gonna have 30 mustard tweets.
1:30
Michael Burns, "Derek Stevens is in Missouri today," oh, he amends it to tomorrow, "presenting to the Missouri Gaming Commission. We are getting closer." All right, we shall see.
1:39
This is from, uh, Futures Bet, BP @futures_bet, "Guys, are you worried about Minkah Fitzpatrick in the AFC East now? Biggest cheap shot artist in the league, ask Nick Chubb.
1:48
He will take a shot at Allen when running this year. Guaranteed that could sink a Bills futures bet." Oh, that's interesting. I didn't think you were going that way.
1:56
Uh, Cleve points out that the Minkah Fitzpatrick-Jalen Ramsey trade is an interesting one in the sense that Minkah had his worst season last year. In the sense that they're both washed? Yeah.
2:06
Well, he said Jalen might not be washed. [laughs] So Ramsey might be okay. Yeah, Ja- that, that, Jalen might not be the, but that Minkah has show, shows signs now of just being on reputation.
2:15
Yeah, I, I, I know I'm not going to worry about one specific player headhunting a quarterback- No. No, I'm not gonna... in, in the NFL.
2:23
JT, SpeedToBurren725, "I only wanted to bet $50 at DraftKings to, uh, for, uh, someone to have any team to go 20 and 0 and have a perfect regular se- uh, perfect season in the NFL."
2:34
Any team to go 20 and 0, so all the way through the Super Bowl is I guess what they're saying here, 17 and 0 and then, uh, three playoff games. But you know how much- Is that, is that pays 50 to 1?
2:44
[laughs] You know how much? It's only 50 to 1. You know how much they let him bet on it? $1.27. Oh, my gosh. Yeah, it's just a horrible experience. Oh, man. Eric- Get it together...
2:55
Eric Berg, "If you think the Bills most-" You're only giving him 50 to 1. 50 to 1, come on.
2:59
"If you think the," uh, Eric Berg, "If you think the Bills most wins is a good bet and 15 to 17 wins is possible, then you need to sprinkle on McDermott Coach of the Year 40 to 1. Shop around.
3:08
I find a, I found a 65 to 1 last week." Yeah, but I think, Eric, that goes against Cleve TA's parameters. I don't think McDermott's gonna win it. The high expectations are there. Yeah.
3:17
Yeah, I, I mean, I, I don't, I should pro- no, the sprinkle word though is m- is probably appropriate. I mean, if, if you think the Bills are gonna be as good as I do, then yeah, maybe a little bit on there.
3:28
Jeff Levine says, "I prefer seven to one parlay from DraftKings. Padres reach National League Championship Series, Tigers reach American League Championship Series. What do you think?"
3:37
Oh, I, I see what he's saying because I have a- Oh... because I have a Padres-Tigers matchup at 66 to 1. Um, I, I like that, Jeff. I like that. Yeah. That gives me two teams to root for then too if I make that bet.
3:49
Tronsky, "Hey, Kelly- That's more than one. "Hey, Kelly, I don't know who's, uh, who are these hooligans that are keeping Arby's afloat. Gil should be shaming any listener that supports their meat.
3:58
Probably the most unsustainable beef in the country." Wow, okay. Wow, we got one on the other side. Drew D- oh, and then let me, this one will segue nicely into Drew. This is a tweet for Drew from Tim Bowers.
4:08
"Gil, I've been listening and enjoying Drew's deep dive previews, but the only thing I'm curious about is they seem to be pseudo-planning to save a lot of teams until later in the season, as I was wondering what his early season strategy is regarding Survivor."
4:20
Well, we have just the man, uh, @whale_capper on Twitter, Deep Dive podcast with Andy Molator, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. It is Drew Dinsick courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
4:31
Drew, how you doing, man? Good, although I'm reeling. I had no idea Kelly Bidlin was an anti-mustardite. I, uh, I, I gotta rethink things here. [laughs] I, um, I'm, uh, I'm, I'm, I'm tilting.
4:44
Um, but no, I'm, I'm excited to talk about Survivor. It's cool that like the, the, thank you to the listeners who are listening to the Deep Dive and giving us this feedback.
4:52
Um, I wanna qualify this entire conversation with, um, I am about, I'm far from the authority on how to optimize and EV play Survivor. I'm not an [laughs] especially good Survivor player.
5:04
I think the deepest run I've ever made is probably like week eight. I've never shipped any pool, let alone the biggest and most aggressive prize pool in all of contests, football contests.
5:14
[laughs] So, uh, it is a dream, uh, to ch- to, to, to, to, uh, to chase this, uh, championship. But, um, I, uh, I, I have been kind of lobbying for a lot of the good teams, save them for later because I feel like,
5:29
you know, there, there are kind of three things at play when it comes to picking your Survivor.
5:32
You obviously want a team, uh, that is likely to win their game any given week, but you also want to mi- maximize your EV by picking against, uh, the consensus, uh, which is to say, uh, not having the top choice on the board unless there are some weeks where you just don't have a choice.
5:47
Um, and then, you know, when it comes to specifically the Circus Survivor where you pick a Thanksgiving and a, um, uh, and a Christmas game, like you gotta save some teams. You gotta save the Chiefs. Yep.
5:57
You gotta save the Commanders so that you can pick them against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and Christmas. So to answer the gentleman's question, though, you're not, so you're not purposely saving good teams for the end.
6:09
That's just the way the cookie crumbles for you early on.
6:12
Well, yeah, and but I, I think in general, uh, it makes sense to, um, you know, to lock in the good quarter- the good teams s- as good teams as in, like, Bills, um, you know, do- well, Chiefs is self-explanatory because of Thanksgiving, but Bills, Ravens, uh, Eagles, I, I do think kind of saving those teams for as late as you can, uh, in the calendar this year makes sense.
6:33
Um, you know, as you go through the season, and maybe I'm too anchored to what happened last year, but, um, by the time we got to November, it was, like, haves and have-nots where, uh, you know, you had the favorites go on just some absolutely hellacious run of, uh, of win, you know, winning over even closing numbers in the market, uh, for money lines.
6:52
Like, it was, it was, uh, just a heyday for the good teams, uh, against the dregs over the last third of the season last year.
7:00
Uh, and I'm not saying that that will happen every year surely, but, um, you know, it does feel like the, uh, the quarterbacks in the NFL right now are pretty clearly stratified, and you g- you're gonna want the guys that are kinda rounding into playoff form, uh, to be carrying the, the torch for you in the, uh, final weeks of the season, of course, besides week 18 when a lot of those teams are gonna be playing for nothing.
7:21
But, um, yeah, I think ultimately, like, the, the month of December, if that's where what it comes down to to win your pool is you're gonna wanna have, uh, some of those options at play because future value is, like, the last piece of the puzzle where, um, you know, if, if there's a team that presents, you know, meaningful value at the end of the season when, you know, everybody else is, is down to the dregs, then that's your distinguishing char- that's, that's, that's how you win your pool.
7:43
Let's, uh, let's w- let's wrap this up with a little brass tacks here. How many entries do you think you'll have in Circa Survivor? And- Yeah, yeah...
7:50
and then how will you, uh, and what teams, like, what will be the percentage of which teams you'll be on? In other words, if you get six, will three be on the Broncos? Will you avoid the Broncos entirely? Yeah.
8:01
[laughs] Like, how, what are you thinking? Broncos week one is tough to wa- Week one I'm talking about. Yeah.
8:05
Broncos week one is really, really tough to, uh, to steer clear of because you're getting, of course, uh, Cam Ward on his first ever start on the road against the best defense on paper in the NFL.
8:16
[laughs] That's a pretty, that's a pretty, uh, a pretty nice spot to, to use the Broncos. Um, also Broncos' future value is, is not that great. That's right. There's not another...
8:25
I don't think there's another game all season where they're gonna be favored by more than a touchdown, so you kinda might as well.
8:30
Um, I think my idea answer is I'm probably gonna have six, uh, at least six, uh, Survivor entries. Uh, haven't entirely decided yet. Won't be signing up until the 21st, 24th sign up weekend.
8:42
Um, and, uh, I'll probably split 50/50 where I'm gonna go contrarian with three of my six and try to find a team, you know, f- find surprise winners in the early few weeks of the season in the hopes that there is just carnage and chaos elsewhere, uh, and then use three of my entries and, and be a little bit more chalky over the first quarter of the season just to try to make sure I have some live entries for mid-season and beyond.
9:05
I like it. Resonates with me. I think I'll have six again, and I think that's kinda how I'm playing it as well. Uh, okay, you have done these deep dive previews for all, for the NFL teams. You're going team by team.
9:17
Uh, all 32 will be done, and
9:21
I, I think the question I wanna ask today is which is the team that from the time you've done it, the time you guys did, you and Andy did the preview till now, is the one where you're like, "Ooh, I don't know if I should've been so strong about this team.
9:34
I kinda feel differently about them now"? Is there a team like that? Uh, I'm not that far off market [laughs] with anyone.
9:44
Uh, so it's tough to say, but the two, the one that's changed the most to the good and the one that's changed the most to the bad are actually pretty obvious for me. Um, the good is the Seattle Seahawks.
9:54
All of the questions- Ooh... I had about, well, who's gonna, you know, like, i- is the line coming together? Is the offen- is K- Kubiak gonna be able to give you better offense than, than, um, uh, than Grubb?
10:04
Is, you know, who's the wi- what wide receiver's gonna emerge to take some of these targets, uh, that are vacated by Metcalf and Lockett?
10:10
And, you know, all, all of those questions to this point in the preseason are being positively affirmed with what you're seeing in the joint practices, training camp reports, um, and to a lesser degree, the preseason game.
10:22
Um, and so I think the Seahawks, uh, to me at least, are the bigger risers, biggest risers. Um, and, uh, to me, the biggest fallers is, like, it's not even a question, it's the Cowboys. Ooh.
10:32
The Cowboys defense in the joint practice against the Rams was so bad, and I was like, I, I, it was, it was, like, staggering, like the degree to which they were not ready to play. And,
10:44
you know, you can point to the fact that they weren't full, full strength secondary, that Mike Parsons isn't out there. Okay.
10:50
Like, [laughs] there are holes all over that defense, and, uh, if your answer if you're a Cowboys fan to how you're gonna compete is, "Well, Dak's back.
10:57
Our offense is gonna be able to go score for score with some teams," they wanna be a running team, and they can't run the football.
11:03
Like, the degree to which their interior offensive line was getting zero, uh, one-v-one wins against the Rams was, uh, was, uh, also again, like, staggering.
11:11
So, um, yeah, I think, um, my numbers, the biggest side edge I have for week one is Eagles over Cowboys on Thursday night, and, uh, I think betting against the Cowboys is gonna be a healthy exercise for me all season based on the way the market has them versus my number.
11:27
Music to my DC ears. I'm glad I asked that question. Wow, I did not expect those two answers. [laughs] Um, more questions for Drew about, uh, his going through the NFL teams on the other side.
11:37
Plus, does he have any week two NFL preseason plays that are still, uh, playable? Mm. Anything in Cincinnati, in tennis today? Drew Dincic, whale capper on the other side, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa.
12:03
Don't forget about the sharp plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information. And alerts directly from the pros.
12:12
We invite you to check out sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. Numbers Game live from Circa. Uh, as I mentioned, Drew Dincic kind enough to join us as always for a second segment.
12:23
Whale_cappers where you can find him on Twitter, and of course, he's the co-host of not one, but two podcasts, the Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, Dincic Classic, and then the new Dincic, NBC Sports Bet The Edge.
12:33
Uh, the formula of which people are, have taken to as well. Uh, let me, uh, before we get back into football, any tennis plays in Cincinnati today, Drew? Uh, all I bet in Cincinnati is Jannik Sinner to win.
12:45
Jannik Sinner to win. [laughs] Drew is, he is off till the US Open. Next week, podcast baby. Correct. Let's go. And Drew might be here in studio. [laughs] And I might be remote. Uh, okay, back to the NFL.
12:57
Uh- Oh, I'll set up matches for Drew. I'll say the names. We'll go match by match. Oh, there you go. There we go. It'll be really exciting. Perfect. Uh, back to the NFL. So week two is upon us in the preseason.
13:08
Uh, I sat here and speculated earlier in the week, uh, about what we saw in week one, namely the overs thus far, including the Hall of Fame game, 14 and two. Um- Mm... and I, you know, all kinds of possibilities.
13:21
One, one possibility is completely random. Two, um, three, four, five are all speculative. Some people think it's new kickoff rules.
13:28
That didn't really check out with average starting position, uh, field position, though. Uh, is it the fact that the offenses are simply more prepared? Uh, do deep fourth-string defenses wear down more?
13:39
Defenses in soft coverage? It's on and on and on with speculation. What did you think? Uh, I think that it, it has to be something... I, I, I guess it could be a bunch of small things adding up, but this was such a,
13:54
um, you know, significant change from the norm that I feel like there's something probably behind the scenes macro that's not obvious, uh, that's driving this. Um,
14:07
for a clarity, like 14 and two is maybe the headliner 'cause people think of, like, well, what would, what would, what would I won if I bet every over [laughs] kind of thing.
14:16
But the margin by which these went over was what caught my attention, right?
14:21
This was this 7.8 miss on the closing total, and you could've been like, "Well, you know, like, all of these factors existed last year, and they're getting more insignificant, and this is a gradual ramp-up of just sort of, you know, more scoring in the preseason."
14:35
And it's like, no, no way. Last year, week one, the closing totals were, like, 36. This year they were a little bit higher. Like obvi- like s- like seriously, people were betting into over day of.
14:45
You saw steam, uh, on Saturday and Sunday after the results from Thursday and Friday, and it was like, and it still wasn't enough. Uh, the closing totals missing by a touchdown is insane.
14:55
Um, and there probably is some truth to the small things. Like, um, it felt like coaches in general were giving more rest to first-string defensive players who matter, right?
15:08
It was a little, a little bit of like, you know, some of the, the, the gas came off of the defensive side of the ball.
15:15
Um, more of the gas was clearly evident with the offensive side of the ball in terms of there was maybe less vanilla offense in sort of the, um, crunch time of second quarter, fourth quarter.
15:25
Um, and I think, you know, if I had to guess, uh, and the fact that they've been so vocal at the league office about what a poor quality product the preseason is, um, it may have just been as straightforward as a memo to refs and coaches and teams generally.
15:40
Like, "Hey, we need to put a better product out there."
15:43
And so for that reason, there was a little bit more, um, attention to detail and emphasis, and less of an exhibition feel in, in kind of key moments of these games that got you o- on average an extra touchdown.
15:55
And, um, if that's sort of, if that's the sort of kind of silent hand that's pushing this and giving you these 44-point games instead of these 36-point games [laughs], then guess what?
16:06
[laughs] The week two preseason totals are wrong. [laughs] Like, all of them. [laughs] Not, not adjusted enough. They are up. Not adjusted enough. They're adjusted two points relative to what we saw last year.
16:16
The preseason, average preseason total last year was 38 for week two. Um, we're gonna see presumably more first-team offenses across the NFL, um, and probably more first-team defenses maybe.
16:28
Um, but, uh, you know, if, if this is an effort overall by the NFL to try to create a product that is more engaging with people in the preseason, considering they're asking fans to effectively pay full price for tickets to these games, uh, then, uh, I think your average preseason NFL week two total should probably be 44.
16:46
And I don't come up with that number randomly. That was the average total we saw in week one, and I'm not exactly sure what's any different week two than week one. Like, you know, defenses are gonna try harder this week?
16:56
Are we sure? Why, why would they? I, I, I honestly, uh, don't really have, um, you know, much skin in the game at this point.
17:03
I've played a handful of overs where I've, you know, see pretty clear signs that you're gonna get first-team offenses, uh, for a quarter or so, but, um- Can I, can I ask- Maybe it's just, it's, you know- And let me just inter- interrupt you for-...
17:13
ground robin overs. I, I... the theory sounds great. I'm just curious, was there anything... 'Cause w- 'cause one, everything follows the initial thought of maybe a league memo. Sure.
17:23
Was there something that was said or, or that you gleaned from something that led you to that kernel to begin with? Well, the commissioner is the one that s- most vocally complains about this.
17:35
[laughs] So, I, you know, it's sort of, uh, you know, intuitive that they've, they've, they've tried a lot of things to make this a better product and nothing is working. Um, so yeah.
17:46
I, I, I have, but nothing, nothing specific. I don't have any in, in, no, uh, uh, no smoking gun, so to speak. Um, but, you know, it, I, I also will kind of note that, um, uh, eye test, I couldn't see anything, right?
18:01
[laughs] Yeah. Like, I watch- I tried hard yesterday to figure something out.
18:04
Watched a lot of, you know, kind of garbage time football and was like, "Yeah, I guess there's a lot of scoring," but it doesn't really f- like, it's not obvious to me that there's something different here.
18:13
But the problem is I don't have a real good reference point, because I never watched the garbage time [laughs] of preseason- Yeah... in years past because it was unwatchable. [laughs] So I don't know. It's tough to say.
18:23
It's still pretty unwatchable. I mean, I, that's why w- that's why I think randomness is still a possibility.
18:27
Like, if, if the scoring all of a sudden w- wasn't as great this week, would you immediately come down from this position? I mean, it, you know, I just- Oh, of course. Yeah. If the average- So. Yeah.
18:35
If we, if we're back to, like, 38 points a game, I'll, I will back off surely, but- Yeah... um, eight point, and, you know, and, uh- It's a lot. I give you that... eight, eight point miss on the close- Yeah. For sure...
18:44
uh, we're, we're talking about, yeah, we're talking about, um, you know, pretty clearly something macro is going on that's not being captured.
18:51
And, uh, yeah, I think, yeah, it, I'm probably gonna small stake ground robin some overs this weekend and see if I'm right So that, that's, I was g- that was my next question, have you made any?
18:59
But y- you, you haven't yet, but you're gonna round-robin a bunch of overs. Yeah, I think, uh- Okay... yeah, th- there's, there may be specific
19:08
w- spots to, to, uh, to target, uh, you know, specific games to target once we get a little bit more information on who's playing.
19:14
Yeah, I mentioned, uh, to you via text, I was like the, the, uh, brain-dead, uh, over p- uh, over teasers, the super teasers- [laughs]... was just the most passive income-y stuff you'll ever imagine in sports betting.
19:25
Back to the, uh, the macro of the, of the full season, uh, I asked you about, you know, what, what, uh, thoughts have changed since when you did the previous. Now you mentioned Seattle- Mm...
19:34
to the good, Dallas to the bad. Uh, I don't, I've asked this of others. I don't think I've asked this of you.
19:40
What is the most outlying Drew Dincic opinion based on what you've taken in anecdotally, and what is the most consensus opinion you've been hearing, maybe it's a team to win the division, maybe it's a team on a season win total, whatever it is, that you cannot get behind, that you hear often and you're just like, "I just do not understand this opinion"?
20:00
Ooh. Uh, the second one is a tough one. Let's circle back on that.
20:04
But the, um, uh, the qui- kind of quiet consensus opinion that I'm starting to really, really kind of line up with is the, the Patriots offense is gonna be just a much different animal this year with Josh McDaniels calling the plays and Drake May in year two.
20:20
Um, it looks to me, at least from what we're seeing in joint practices, most cl- obviously against Washington, but then also, you know, to a degree in the preseason game was, um, just it's, it's [laughs] it's a,
20:32
a, it looks like a more coherent vision. Um, and it looks like the protection is at least above the Mendoza Line. Um, so Drake May might actually take a pretty significant step forward this year.
20:42
You know, I, I was, I came into the, the cycle looking at his data last year and being pretty unimpressed, and being like, "Man, people are really expecting a huge leap when there's not a, a good sign that there is going to be one."
20:55
Um, but then now kind of getting a, a fair rating on their offensive line and, and the skill position players that they have to, uh, to work with there, it's, it, this looks to me like a pretty decent offense.
21:06
I think people are wildly overrating the Patriots' defense. The Patriots might just be, like, an over-, um, cash cow for the first half of the season until people correctly adjust their priors.
21:17
But, um, yeah, the Patriots offense to me looks like a, a pretty s- pretty strong unit.
21:23
But everybody is sort of there, I think, or at least getting close to there, uh, or will be there by the time the preseason, the regular season starts.
21:30
Um, the one that, um, the, the angle that I'm really struggling, uh, to kinda line up behind, um, is maybe that the AFC West is gonna be this big competitive division again. Hmm. Um, I, uh,
21:48
I, the, I don't really have anything I can say bad at all about the Chiefs' offense.
21:52
Uh, and Pat Mahomes and company look to be pretty well, uh, constructed to outscore people and put away games the way they always do in the regular season.
22:02
Um, and while I acknowledge sort of the, you know, the, the spirit and the excitement around Denver right now, it's tough for me to see Denver beating [laughs] Kansas City on the strength of their defense, which is l- so much more random.
22:16
So, um, yeah, I, I, uh, I was originally thinking like, "Hey, the schedule's sequenced well, that betting Denver now, and then, you know, kind of coming in over the top with Kansas City mid-season is, is, I think, still the right play."
22:30
Kansas City, much tougher schedule in, uh, September, October. Um, and, uh, and so I think, yeah, having Denver in pocket now makes sense.
22:37
But I, I've, I've softened a lot on Kansas City actually being in, uh, you know, at, at risk of losing the West. Drew Dincic, everybody. Drew, thank you as always. All right, best of luck, guys. You too.
22:48
Captain Jack on the other side. Bet Bash is here. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN and Winners Circle Proxy are giving away two grand prize packages for the Circa Million 7 contest.
23:01
Each includes a fully paid entry, full season proxy service from the team at Winners Circle Proxy, and an exclusive behind-the-scenes tour of our VSiN studios in Las Vegas. It's free to enter.
23:11
Just go to winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin and fill out the short form before August 17th. Don't miss your shot to play for $6 million in guaranteed prizes this season. Go to winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin. It's Gil Alexander.
23:23
Uh, it is Bet Bash. Bet Bash 5, I believe it is. Five. One in, uh, New Jersey, now four here in Las Vegas.
23:31
Uh, and as part of Bet Bash, uh, a numbers game tradition, we always like to bring in lots of folks from Spanky's super awesome sports betting conference.
23:39
And our first one from this year has arrived, the commissioner of sports betting. I hope he still has that in his bio. It's Captain Jack Andrews, co-founder of Unabated. How you doing, man? Great, Gil.
23:48
It's great to be here, and I do have it still in my- Oh... Twitter bio. Yes. I, uh, I, I am, I am honored. That is what you are, by the way.
23:55
We'll get to the state of the state here moment- in, momentarily, 'cause I think you're a good guy to, the best guy to speak on the industry, uh, in many ways.
24:02
Before we do, tell everybody what Unabated is about, the, uh, the elevator pitch. Sure. Uh, Unabated is a site that has, uh, tools and resources to help you make smarter bets.
24:13
We have calculators to derive alt line value. We have simulators to, uh, play out the distribution for prop bettors and for NFL season wins. Right now we're in NFL season win season, right? Yeah.
24:28
And so if you want the most comprehensive way to simulate out the season and see the value in alt season wins, uh, it's a great tool. Rufus himself designed it, built it, so it, it's, it's top-notch.
24:42
Rufus Peabody, who will be on the show tomorrow. Uh, and then, um, you, someone who has been to Bet Bash many times before, what is it that you look forward to the most with this conference?
24:52
I would say for th- 360 days of the year, I am sitting at my desk behind a screen- Interacting electronically with people [laughs] And this is a time when I get to shake hands, and I get to share a drink, and I get to, uh, meet in person all these people that I've been talking to- Yeah...
25:10
all year. It's the one time we all gather in the same place. Human contact. Yes, human contact. An underrated thing. All right, we got three topics here, Jack.
25:17
We gotta get them all in eight- eight minutes and 30 seconds. You ready for this? Mm-hmm. All right. And these are some of- some of the things that, uh, I have talked about on the show with, uh, Bill Krackenberger- Mm...
25:24
which I know you've chimed in- you've listened to, but you haven't had a chance to chime in on. And but you are front and center on a lot of these in terms of, uh, having thoughts.
25:32
Tax law changes, uh, specifically, uh, was the matter for those who- who don't remember, uh, Pork sort of added on, much like back in 2006, uh, with Bill Frist- Bill Frist's Pork back in the day with the internet gaming, uh, laws.
25:50
But this is about taxing bettors in a different way in terms of, uh, being more egregious, in other words, only being able to use as a deduction 90%, I believe, of, uh, of winnings versus losses.
26:02
Or did I have that wrong? Losses versus wins. Losses. Yeah. You can deduct losses up to the point of wins. It's...
26:08
There's a misconception that this is a- a- a tax break for gamblers, that, uh, that 100%, that was a tax break. It really wasn't a tax break, it was just fairness.
26:18
If- if you end a year and you don't have a profit, you shouldn't have to pay money in taxes for income you didn't make. So I think your audience is probably familiar with the- what the bill's about. Yeah.
26:29
And- The big, beautiful bill. Right. And- and now we're at a point where w- when will it change? Will it change? I think it will change. It will go back to the 100% deduction, but when will it change?
26:39
Because if it doesn't change by January 1st 2026, there's a lot of people, like myself, who have to figure out if we still wanna do this thing we do for a living. Yeah. And it's- it's very impactful.
26:52
So now the question is, will this change before 2026? Your representative here in- in Nevada is Dina Titus, and she came out with that Fair Bet Act right away.
27:03
Uh, but you know, she's also been trying to get rid of the federal excise tax for nine years. Mm. She's been trying to get- raise the W-2G limit for six years.
27:12
Hasn't been too effective, and she's of the wrong party right now to get things done in Congress. That's right. I don't think that bill's going anywhere.
27:19
Then it becomes a question of, well, can they- can they pork it back into something else and get it changed in 2025? The windows are slim, and- 2025 appears to be toast, right, on this? Well, it's not totally toast.
27:31
In- in September, we have a government spending bill that is gonna go through Congress.
27:36
And then after that, there could be another reconciliation bill, and that's your best chance, is to get it into another reconciliation bill. Uh, I don't know that they'll- that will happen, though.
27:46
And here's the thing, Gil. A lot of people are suddenly experts in congressional politics- Yes... and how things work. And most of us sports bettors- Yeah...
27:55
we're- we're apathetic about everything in life other than sports betting. And so suddenly everyone's an expert, including myself. I'll- I'll admit that.
28:04
So none of us know, and it really comes down to will this happen in 2025? I don't know, but we're not quite at the point where you need to figure it out for 2026 yet.
28:14
I w- I'm waiting until like November, December- Yeah... and then we'll- we'll figure out if wholesale changes need to be made on the way we play and- and report.
28:23
But there is a scenario here where you say you're donezo on this, perhaps. Ah, there's a scenario where I- I do major changes to what I currently do. Okay. Let's put it that way. Let's put it that... All right.
28:32
Uh, the other thing is, uh, one of the other things, multi-accounting.
28:36
This is the matter that I talked about with, uh, Bill Krackenberger the other day about the notion, he didn't say the sportsbook, I'll say it, the Fanduels of the world, who say, "Yeah, if we find multiple people on the same IP address, we're going to, uh, reserve the right not to pay."
28:49
Mm-hmm. Yeah. This is happening to a lot of people. It's been happening for, uh, the past six to nine months, I would say.
28:57
I g- I get a lot of these guys that reach out to me on Twitter DM and say, "Hey, this is what's happening. What do you advise?" Uh, the first step is people need to be more careful. They need to be less sloppy.
29:11
I don't think a lot of bettors realize how much these sports bet companies, these sportsbooks can see about you. It's not just your IP address.
29:21
The geolocation software can pinpoint where your phone is to within eight inches, including altitude, how high a elevation, how high off the- the floor it is.
29:30
So if you have four different phones all lined up on one desk, they can tell they're all lined up on one desk.
29:37
They- they know that it's not four guys sitting around in a big room all saying, "Hey, let's all bet this at the same time. Come on." That- that doesn't fly anymore. And so y- you need to be more careful.
29:49
And the other thing is, is this isn't worth the time of the sportsbooks to investigate, for the most part. Now, if it's a big money, if there's a lot of money involved over a few different accounts, it is.
30:00
They're basically giving you the runaround, because that's their right to do. And unfortunately, the state regulatory commissions kinda back 'em up. They let 'em- they let 'em, you know, put you through the wringer. Mm.
30:11
So when you get into a situation like this, if you're- find yourself in this way, just try to get out of it.
30:18
You know, try to give them what they want in terms of proof of, uh, you know, identifi- identification and all that, and then see if they'll just close the account and send you your money back.
30:29
And you were saying off- off a- off air, you were saying by law there is no... Th- they can't possibly, uh, do this against syndicates either. There's no law that supports them doing this.
30:40
This- this is something that I think is gonna h- it- it has to hit the wall at some point in the next couple years. Every sportsbook has in their terms and conditions that syndicate betting is illegal.
30:51
That's unconstitutional. There was a ruling in 2010 by the Supreme Court, Citizens United versus the FEC, and basically what that says is you can't treat a group of people different than you treat an individual.
31:05
And if you have- A rule in there that says we treat a group of people, a syndicate, different than, than we treat an individual, technically now unconstitutional. Nobody's challenged it yet.
31:16
It's gonna be very expensive to challenge, to take a big sports book to court, uh, over this. But, and it's gonna bubble up to multiple jurisdictions and possibly the Supreme Court even. And so
31:30
eventually this will get challenged, Gil. Okay. And I think sports books should back down on leaning into that rule until, you know, we, we know more. Last thing, and this is the most interesting of the bunch,
31:41
uh, sweepstakes betting- Mm... exchange betting. Where, where do you see all of this going? This is a great time.
31:49
A, a lot of people are talking about the death of sports betting, and I think this is, like, a, a second life we have now with the sweepstakes operators that are out there in states where they are still permitted.
32:00
And now we have prediction markets that
32:02
could be governed by the CFTC, which creates a whole new world of possibilities, including a new world of, of, uh, how sports betting winnings are taxed, but we won't get into that today, um, less tax. And
32:17
I think everyone's gonna lean into this. Every one of these major operators is going to have some kind of pivot, including, uh, you know, maybe they will have an exchange clearing house for certain types of bets. Mm-hmm.
32:30
Here's the thing about the way prediction markets work right now. It's all just money lines. There's no props. There's no sides and totals. Same with sweepstakes. Uh, no, sweepstakes has full functional sports books.
32:41
Right, but there's a lot that they don't have in terms of futures and that kind of thing. Right. There's a lot that they don't have. Yeah.
32:46
Uh, and sweepstakes aren't regulated, so when you have issues, eh, you're kind of out of luck. But with prediction markets, there is a lot of possibilities here.
32:55
It's something that everyone should be kind of getting aware of and see how it fits into their sports betting. I think it's a, it's a world of new possibilities.
33:03
I think there's gonna be a lot of major players coming into this space if the CFTC allows them in, and that's sort of an unknown. They don't even have a, a commissioner yet. That's a commodities exchange. Yes. Yeah.
33:15
It's, it's, they, they basically oversee, uh, commodities exchanges the same way the SEC oversees the stock market. Rufus, uh, real quick, 10 seconds.
33:22
Rufus asked, uh, someone on the podcast, uh, the guy from Novig- Mm-hmm... "Do you think, uh, this will, what, where will this be in five years?" He said either 0% or 80% of the market. You agree with that assessment?
33:32
Yes. Uh, Henry's very smart, and I think he's correct. Wow. Interesting. Captain Jack Andrews, everybody, from Unabated. Enjoy the conference, man. Appreciate it. Always do.
33:42
Coming back to recap all the bets next here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, site of Bet Bash 5, Spanky's sports betting conference. Nice of Captain Jack to s- to, uh, hang out. Yeah, awesome. Great to see him, as always.
34:07
It's, uh, you know, uh, for, for those who just want picks, it's not the sexiest conversation in the world, but, you know, you gotta drop down and get the state of the state from him. Mm-hmm.
34:16
That, that last part about, uh, exchanges and sweepstakes, though, that's the future, man. And by future, I mean, like, it's now already, but most people aren't really aware.
34:27
But, uh, Sharp is better, so that's where they're going right now, um, much to the chagrin of some sports book operators. It's gonna be- Let's just put it that way...
34:34
gonna be very fascinating to see how this develops over the next few years. Bro, every time I'm in California, that's what I'm doing.
34:41
Uh, here are the, uh, here's a recap of all the best bets courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN. We have four tennis bets today, and they are all doggies, one on the men's side, three on the ladies' side.
34:51
Yesterday, again, one in three, but the one was a +319 dog that came home on Terrence Atmane. And today, one of these has already started. Ellis Idel. Ellis Idel's +264 versus McCartney Kessler.
35:07
Uh, she is up a break late in the first set. She is trying to hang on here with her serve. Uh, but it's 15-30, up 5-4 for Ellis Idel in the first set against McCartney Kessler.
35:18
Let's see if she can hang on here for the first set. Still to come today, Adam Walton on the men's side, +311 against Jiri Lehecka.
35:25
And then also on the ladies' side, Ashlyn Krueger, +181 versus Jasmine Paolini, and Lucia Bronzetti, or as Kelly said probably more properly this morning, Lucia Bronzetti, +235 versus Jelena Ostapenko.
35:37
So four big dogs in Cincinnati today. Can we, can we, can we, uh, edit that part, uh, uh, Darnell? Let's save that for la- for later. Oh, when you said what, or Kelly said better?
35:46
Where Kelly pronounced it [laughs] yeah, yeah. Yeah. Where Gil says Kelly pronounced it better. Uh, all right. Pre-season action. Added one more, uh, to the card t- this morning, actually last night.
35:56
Uh, Chiefs, Seahawks over 39 and a half. These are early in the week. I bet these, uh, on Sunday. Giants +1.5. Bills, Bears over 36.5. vsin.com, uh, is where you'll find those. I put them in right when I bet them.
36:10
And then the one I did add yesterday, Eagles 2.5. I was interested to see where that line was gonna move. They are facing the Browns this weekend. Uh, it was sitting, what was it, Eagles one yesterday?
36:22
I was wondering if there was gonna be some Shedeur love pour in, and I might even get the Eagles at a plus price.
36:28
And then in the afternoon, it started to race out, uh, to the Eagles, like, toward E- they're at three right now most places. I was like, "Well, yeah, let me jump on this 2.5 while I still can."
36:37
As soon as I saw something about, uh, the, the football card market did not at all react to Shedeur Sanders' performance- Oh, really? Yeah. No, nobody cares. Not- They're like, "Yeah, no, I get any rookies."
36:46
The pre-season stuff is funny, man, because the line movement, it's so, it's, it's based off of such different reasons, right- Yeah... than what you encounter during the regular season.
36:57
So when you, I think during the regular season, we do a pretty good job of where do we think a line's gonna end up moving, or at least which direction during a week. You like that one?
37:05
[laughs] That Shedeur love did not come into play whatsoever. Ellis Idel up a set, +264. Let's go, Ellis. Let's go, Ella. Ella, Ella. Mark Borchardt, baseball, base winner on the show today.
37:19
Uh, Yankees-Mets parlay, New York state of mind parlay, plus 139 is what that pays. Shop around, of course.
37:26
And then he's on an over tonight, Diamondbacks and Rangers, over eight and a half, as the Rangers look to, uh, actually score some runs like they did last night against the Diamondbacks, come from behind win.
37:38
Maybe that's a, uh, trend. Let's see. Beginning of a trend, I should say. It's all brought to you by GBank, all the best bets each show, every host, every guest, every play recapped by GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
37:50
I wanna talk to you about, uh, with Drew's theories, where they're, uh, here moment- moments from now. Uh, GBank Visa Signature card, though, get it today. Built with sports bettors in mind.
37:58
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38:05
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38:14
Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank. Should I read some tweets? Ron Burgundy style? Do it. Uh, I don't know if I wanna do that. Uh, James Fessler, "In Tua's health, I do not trust," he says.
38:28
"I used Miami alt unders and some big MLB money lines to improve Liverpool EPL [laughs] odds. Two combo tickets that, uh, even Drew Dincic and Chris Felica might even approve of."
38:37
So he's, uh, he is betting against the Tua health, essentially in this. Oh, I think it's... I, I just think no matter what you think about the Dolphins, it's you're thinking alts.
38:46
'Cause either you're way down on them and this all falls apart- Nope... and it's a disaster- Nope... and it, they're one of the worst teams in the league.
38:54
I think it's great advice, and I think that applies to several teams. I think it does too. They're, I, to me, they're the top, though. I think you're right, Dave. They are the top team it applies to.
39:01
Because of the Tua matter. Yeah. They're top, I think. You could make a case for a lot of teams like that. Indianapolis, I think there's a disaster scenario for them too. I, there's a bunch of those.
39:11
Chance Copperpot, "I'm scared of what the Arby's cheese and beef is made of, but it tastes good. I make my own. The sauce on the onion bun is just Russian salad dressing.
39:19
Melt some sharp cheddar on deli sliced roast beef in a pan and whip up some horseradish sauce." [laughs] Logic- Yeah, I'm not, I'm not really sure what it is, but I'm, I'm, I'm with him on the cheese sauce.
39:28
Like, I, I don't know what- Yeah. I know... the difference is between, like, a, you know, a, some nachos at a ball game that's bas- probably the same damn thing, right? The cheese sauce.
39:36
But I, uh, I don't like that either. Logic3227, "I coach youth basketball and flag football. We stop after every away game to eat. Their number one choice, hands down, is always Arby's." There you go. Wow. All right.
39:51
Uh, Bob C- Does that, does that surprise you? That their number one choice is Arby's? That the kids' number one choice. No. Arby's is good, man. That surprises me a little bit.
40:00
When I was growing up in D- As a kid, we want, like, you know, the chicken nuggets and stuff like that, McNuggets...
40:03
in DC growing up, in that region of the country growing up, Roy Rogers Fast Food Restaurants- Roy Rogers... was the jam. Yeah. Yeah. Jam. Bob C-137, "I got the VSiN Watch app.
40:13
I thought I'd get a great Kelly Bidlin watch face when the hands flail wildly, but I guess it's just access to shows and content." Huh? "I'd really like a Bidlin watch face option." Oh.
40:24
[laughs] I don't know what he means. He wants more Bidlin, I guess, is what he's saying. So- "Do I contact Mr. Musburger directly, or what do I do?" he says.
40:31
[laughs] Prime- Send, send him a letter to his ranch in Montana. [laughs] Prime Time, yo. Hey, man, I'm so, I'm sorry. "I used to work with dude whose wife was Arby's manager, and he'd bring in Arby's lunch once a month.
40:41
Then we found out how the sausage was made, and when that was explained, Arby's will never be the same to me. Now Arby's equals..." [laughs] Oh, man, I don't wanna hear- I won't, I won't tell you this...
40:49
I mean, I kinda wanna hear this 'cause I don't like it already, but- No, you'll have to ask Prime Time. I don't have the answers.
40:54
[laughs] Um, JasonH11, "Gil, do you feel any pressure deciding what question to ask Drew, knowing it's the only one you'll get to ask?" [laughs] Drew is very thorough. He's extremely thorough. Very thorough.
41:09
That's an interesting question, though. That's very perceptive of you. Yeah, very perceptive, yes.
41:12
You have to, you really do have to choose based on the time left what question you wanna ask based on how long you think the answer's gonna be. Okay.
41:20
So that's why they're like, "Picks real quick, and then we'll get to the good stuff."
41:23
By the way, do you agree- Very glad you, Ron Burgundy, did that one 'cause I was actually la- Jason and I was laughing very hard off, uh, during the break on that tweet. I, I mean, Drew is very thorough.
41:31
That's why pod- that's why podcasting is his medium of choice, right? Yeah, that's right. Do you agree with his, his thinking about his theory that,
41:40
I, I w- I don't wanna put words into his mouth, but the, the sort of ridiculous way to say it is the NFL made a call, right, to the teams or, or memo or whatever- Mm-hmm... and said, "Yeah, these games kinda suck.
41:51
Let's, uh, let's make sure we, uh, have a better product," and what that means is perhaps playing more starters on offense and, uh, yeah, if you don't, you know, if you- Well, look, I-...
42:01
you don't want to on defense, no big deal... I can't rule that out just because we've seen that type of thing in sports, period, over the past few years of, "Hey, these All-Star games gotta be better.
42:13
How do we make a Pro Bowl better? This has gotta be better." Can't rule that out completely. I don't, this is really tough.
42:20
I think it's, I think it's a fascinating thing that happened in week one because I think the part, I think the part I, I disagree with you a little bit on is, and not that you've fully said this, but the...
42:31
I think f- like, what, 14 and 2? Dude, that's a big number. It kind... Drew bringing up the, the differential, like, I don't know how much randomness there is. Like, I, I'm kind of- Oh, I'm-...
42:42
with Drew that I expect a lot of scoring again this week. I'm, I am not making a definitive statement on anything. But I don't have the reason. I don't have the reason. I do not have a reason.
42:49
I'm not making a definitive statement. What I'm saying is randomness is still an option for me. Yeah, a- and then, and then he said he went back and re-watched a lot of the garbage time. And he couldn't figure it out.
42:58
And he couldn't figure it out. Yeah.
43:00
Whereas that was kind of the one thing where I was like, "Man, I kinda think there's something to this garbage time play where you're, you have some quarterbacks on the field that at least have some NFL experience versus some third, fourth stringers."
43:13
It was very w- odd watching Jameis Winston throw to a, uh, little wide receiver wearing number zero out there. Yeah. I think this is, this is not what, it's not what you deserve, Jameis.
43:22
Rambo Davis, "I heard you talk about sports cards on air today and wondered if you were into collecting the Topps tennis sets that are out." Oh, wow. I don't know about those. Give me that.
43:33
I have a, uh, I have an r- or, like, a rookie Iga from back in the day that someone got me. Fred Currier, "Will Jason ever be back?" Jason, uh, doesn't wanna do it anymore.
43:42
Jason Weingarten, our buddy, I s- I still text with him all the time, but Jason doesn't wanna come on the, on, make appearances media-wise anymore. Kelly, do you have anything to say about [laughs] Kidding. No.
43:53
James Fessler. No, you've nailed it. [laughs] Uh, 2024, I'm looking, I'm looking at your tennis cards. Are they nice? Nice looking? Yeah. Whi- which ones did he say? Uh- I'm looking at 2024-... Topps tennis sets...
44:05
yeah, 20- I'm looking at a 2024 Topps Chrome Tennis Factory Sealed Hobby Box. [upbeat music] Okay. Nice. Sometimes- We love cards. Yeah. What do you mean? I love them.
44:15
I've searched for a Wembanyama, this, like, rare Wembanyama. I went around to, like, local Walgreens and whatever, never, Wal- uh, Marts, never found him. So yeah, I'm in, I'm into sports cards still. If, if, you know,
44:26
tennis is available, I'm all about it. Uh, let's go, uh, Ellis Idell, let's wrap this up. Money Moves with Stormy and JBT next. Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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