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Aug 12, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 12, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 12, 2026 | Hour 3
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46:07
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Transcript
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0:53
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:02
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus. Let's see, there's iHeartRadio, there's YouTube TV, there's Sirius XM channel 158. I could go on. Good job.
1:14
I choose to end there. Dustin kept leaving out Game Plus. I, I had to make sure we got Game Plus in. Uh- He's, uh... Is that the anti-Canadian stuff? Is that what he was getting- I, I, yes... hit with? That was it.
1:23
Literally, that was it. [laughs] And then people said that. [laughs] That was literally- The man loves Canada... all that was- For God sakes. Our meshpucha, Dustin Swiedelshon, who is on every night cashing out- Yes...
1:35
here at the network. Doing a great job. Did a great job here filling in last week and, and part of the week before. Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Dr. Actor KJ, oh, he's the, uh, biology nerd. Hmm.
1:45
I think he's the biology nerd. He says, "Oh, sweet innocent Kelly.
1:48
Living in the desert and having to play golf for hours with a temp of 99, 98% humidity with a heat index of 125, and profusely sweating just standing still are not the same thing.
1:57
Been in Memphis 16 years, still not used to it." Yeah, I bet it's brutal. I mean, I've lived in South Florida for a while, Venezuela, th- those, th- those humid places.
2:06
I prefer humidity over this oven of Vegas because maybe 'cause I grew up in it. I prefer the humidity. I do not. Hmm. However, I, I, I find people comical that s- like, that, that have a strong, strong opinion on it.
2:21
I don't know about strong, strong opinion. Like, they're both miserable. Oh, yeah. They're both miserable. Yeah.
2:24
David Chalifour, "Yo, I would do the club for 5K, but only the t- [laughs] only the tip and no ball striking." [laughs] Okay, I see what you did there. Thank you, David Chalifour. Best listeners of the game.
2:34
Rich Sports 1981, "Wishnev Wednesday. The worst segment of ANG always reminds me to take my trash out. Pause. Just kidding. Haters gonna hate on Todd. Keep crushing it, Todd."
2:45
Boudanboy, "I respect paying the bills, but that department of..." Oh, we, we don't listen to the commercials. Also, I don't know what that, yeah. I don't know either. I saw your tweet.
2:51
I don't, we, we don't- We don't know. We don't hear the commercials... we're not programming the commercials depending on where you're listening.
2:55
Ace to Cardona, "Which panelist was the motherless see-you-next-Tuesday lying about and taking shots at Todd? Completely unacceptable. Todd is a nice, brilliant guy who is crushing and helping people."
3:07
I'm telling you from yesterday, from the segment I did yesterday on it till now, nothing but nonstop, uh, support for Toddy Wishnev. I don't even know if he went and listened to it.
3:16
It is the great Todd Wishnev, the star of Wishnev Wednesdays in the flesh, courtesy of the Progressive guest- well, not o- okay, the flesh, that means he'd be here.
3:24
But he's courtesy of the Progressive guest line from Pittsburgh, PA. Toddy, good morning. How you doing, man? How you doing, Gilly? What's going on? [laughs] What- By the way- Yes...
3:33
I would say there's a fundamental misunderstanding in this whole discussion of whether you can get the number or not. Please.
3:40
If you understand how in-game markets work, it is not like a pre-game market where, you know, the game can be plus five, and then all the sharps come in on the side, and Dr. Bob releases, and now it's plus three.
3:55
My friends, if you watch the in-game markets, they are based on the closing number and the algorithm. There is not that much difference between all the different books' in-game numbers out there.
4:10
So you, for those who say that you only can get a small percentage, it's just factually incorrect. Yes, it is. Now, I can't look at that many books myself.
4:20
I only have, like, three or four books that I can still do this with, and those books are not that different.
4:27
Once in a while, yeah, okay, I do a lot of first half with, like, eight minutes left in the first half, 12 minutes left in the first half college basketball betting.
4:35
You might see 72 and a half at one book, 72 and a half at another book, minus 114, minus 121, 72 and a half, minus 108 somewhere else.
4:43
Maybe 71 and a half, minus 130 somewhere else, but that's pretty close to 72 and a half 'cause you're paying more vig, right? So that's, almost all of them are, are gonna be running the same numbers.
4:55
Now, what people are saying is very often it takes me time to make the bet, decide I wanna make the bet at the commercial.
5:02
Remember, there's only two minutes, and a lot of times you're 30 seconds behind because of the TV delay already. So maybe there's only a minute and a half. Now you've got to decide what to do.
5:11
I've got to go make the bet. It may be at, at a kiosk, uh, you know, if I'm sitting at Rivers. That takes time. I gotta come back, po- post the bet.
5:19
Now, sometimes the game has just started or h- has gone 30 seconds by the time I get my post in. So let's say I say over 71 and a half first half with eight minutes to go, and the first possession is empty. Guess what?
5:34
You're gonna get better than 71 and a half. That's right. I pointed that out. And if they hit a three, if they hit a three in the first 10 seconds, you're going to get worse. That's how in-game markets work.
5:45
So people like Cha- Chance Copper Pot, who gets a huge percentage of my plays, sometimes at better numbers than me-... is just watching the market.
5:53
So if he sees it come over his transom, then I'm playing over 20, 71 and a half first half, and it bumps to 73 and a half 'cause they just hit a three to start the possession, he waits, and sometimes it gets away from him.
6:05
He can't do that bet. Sometimes it comes back. He might get 70 and a half 'cause they might have a minute that, that there was empty from the six-minute mark to the five-minute mark.
6:13
All of a sudden he's got a better number than me, and he oftentimes wins and, and, and I lose, and I get angry and start cursing him out that he's getting a better number than me.
6:22
[laughs] So this whole nonsense that you can only get 5 to 10% of the plays is just ridiculous.
6:28
If you would like to continue to believe it, believe it, but you show your fundamental lack of understanding of the in-game markets if that is your position. Thank you. Well, I think, and I... Well done.
6:38
First of all, well done. Well done, Todd. Um, I think you are actually, uh, diagnosing the, the nicest part of that, which is fundamental lack of understanding.
6:48
I think worse than that, it's just, what was the gr- what, what did you say on one of the very first Wish Nev Wednesdays back in the day at the South Point?
6:55
Human being's worst invention ever, unquote, which I think a lot of- Oh, I can't stand human beings... yeah, a lot of people- And I can't wait till AI wipes out all of humanity. Oh, okay. All right. Here we go.
7:04
That will be a good day. Okay. [laughs] Okay. Now, now we're really getting to the m- Oh... to the crux of things with Todd.
7:11
But I'm, but I'm just saying people suffer in w- in the gambling community, maybe more exaggerated than others, they just suffer from this i, i- if they didn't get in on it, "Oh, let me figure out a way to make myself feel better about this," so they take shots.
7:26
It's just, it's just ridiculous. Anyway. And the guy at the, at the, at the, at the bet bash saying, "Oh, that guy can't possibly win. You see how fat he is?" Exactly. Yeah.
7:33
By the way, fatness does not stop you from being good- [laughs]... at sports gambling. That's right.
7:40
Now, it may stop you from hitting every tennis shot that you wanna hit because you're too fat to get to the ball, but it doesn't necessarily stop what is essentially a sit-in-your-chair activity. Well said again. Yep.
7:57
Please, Todd, go back and listen to my rant yesterday. Uh, okay. Don't- Oh, I did. I listened to it- Okay... and I thank you very much for- Oh... ranting for me. Oh, I hadn't- I appreciate it...
8:04
I hadn't even known that you had listened to it. All right.
8:07
WNBA, you had an interesting point in a little group chat this morning, which is the, the interesting difference between pre-flop first-half numbers, uh, totals, that is, and second-half totals. What do you mean?
8:20
Um, okay. So, you know, in, in college basketball it's fundamental where you get like, you get half the number minus four, half the number plus four in the first and second halves.
8:30
In the NBA, you get different situations first half, second half. So you m- and so you might have a 200 total. It's not 100 first half, 100 second half.
8:39
It's all based on how the teams have played first half, second half.
8:42
Now, the WNBA used to be even, so if you had a 180 total, it'd be 90 first half, 90 second half because they weren't that m- there, there weren't that many opportunities at the end where there were gonna be fouls because of the 24-second clock, et cetera, et cetera.
8:54
However, I've noticed this year it's reverted to an NBA style where they, you will not see on a 180 a 90 first half and a 90 second half.
9:05
You might once in a while see it, but very often you're seeing 87 first half, 93 second half, or vice versa. You might see 95 first half, 85 second half.
9:14
And I assume what's, what's happening there is people are tracking these teams to see how they do in the first half versus the second half, and that's why you're seeing these other numbers. Now, you can use...
9:26
Because it didn't used to be like that. Like, I've been betting NB- WNBA for a number of years, even before Caitlin Clark came into the league. You know, there was a league- No way... even before Caitlin Clark- Liar...
9:37
got in the WNBA. No, no. Get outta here. No one would believe it, but there actually was a league, and I used to bet it, and it was 90 in the first half, 90 in the second half on a 180. It is no longer- Oh...
9:51
that way, and this can be something you can theoretically work in your favor for in-game, and here's what I mean. Let's say you're watching a game and it's halftime, and it was a very h- I'll give you an example.
10:05
Last night, Sparks-Mercury, very high-paced game. 47 first-half possessions is a lot of possessions in a WNBA game, which typically might have 42 possessions, 41 possessions, 43 possessions. 47's a lot in a WNBA game.
10:23
And the first half of this game was 47-44. They didn't shoot that well, so it only got to 91. Now, the way they had run this game was the first half was supposed to be higher, the second half was supposed to be lower.
10:35
It might, I might be off on that and, and I'm saying the opposite, but I'm pretty sure I was, I'm correct on this.
10:40
The point that I wanna make is you can now take that third-quarter number, because you're gonna get a third quarter is gonna be about half of that second half number, and you can play that number
10:52
based on the fact you're, maybe even in the first half, right? Based on the fact... Scratch that. I'm sorry.
11:00
If you're, if you're going for a full-game bet in the second quarter of a game and you know that that second half's gonna be a lower-scoring, uh, second half based on the market, you might get a better number because you're gonna get a, a higher-paced game still in the second half.
11:16
Got it. I don't know if I'm, what I'm saying- Got it... is making sense. No, it does. Okay. But
11:20
the, the point is, is, and it doesn't really matter the exact examples 'cause I didn't do a good job with that example, but the point is, like last night, third quarter I wanted to play over in that Mercury game because just in case the game got out of hand or got too tight in the fourth quarter, I didn't wanna put myself in a position where the fourth quarter could whack my bet.
11:39
And that's what's nice about WNBA and quarter betting, is that the third quarter's likely to play very similar to the first half, whereas the fourth quarter, anything can happen.
11:47
You know, you might have a blowout, you might have a close game that can, you know, lower scoring and stuff like that.
11:53
So- I guess my point is, other than my horrible examples, which I did a terrible job on, the point is know what the second half line is going to be at halftime. Because if you know that, you can play that in your favor.
12:09
Does that make any sense? There it is. Yes, it does. Um, Todd, uh, Olivia Miles is plus 550 to win MVP. Is there any chance she could win it over A'ja Wilson? Any chance? I, you know what, she's so exciting to watch.
12:22
Unbelievable player. Uh, I mean, she, she might deserve it. I don't know how these, these voters go. I mean, A'ja Wilson is really amazing. Yeah, she's minus 550. So she's very, very difficult to stop. Yeah.
12:34
Todd, Todd wants AI- But, uh, this Olivia Miles is a lot of fun... Todd wants AI to wipe out humanity. That's my takeaway. Thank you, Todd. Got it. Appreciate it. Wishnev Wednesdays. Toddy Wishnev, everybody.
12:44
Coming back on A Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:52
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13:00
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13:08
[rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Football is back.
13:25
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13:32
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13:36
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13:55
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14:05
Todd, uh, wishing that, uh, AI wiped out humanity, I got, and then also that there apparently Kelly was a WNBA prior to Caitlin, Caitlin Clark. Allegedly. All the other stuff was filler. Allegedly. Allegedly.
14:16
May- maybe, maybe- Todd's a big De- Dijonai Carrington guy. He's pro Dijonai. Yeah, me too.
14:20
Uh, maybe one of these days he can just spend two segments explaining all ev- all of the controversies that have occurred in the WNBA over the past two seasons to me. Oh, Todd has his own unique bent on it.
14:32
I'm, I'm like, dude, this is- Yeah... I'm not, I mean, I know a lot of this is, some, some of it's serious, some of it not, some of it very sil- silly. I can't keep up with it though.
14:39
I, I legitimately just can't keep up with every issue that continues to go on in the WNBA. Oh, it's unbelievable. It's unbelievable. The latest one, by the way, is that the Indiana Fever head coach- Right...
14:49
Stephanie White- Saw she spoke before the game yesterday... she finally lost it on people, right? Because she got b- she actually s- I think after the Dijonai, Sophie Cunningham thing, where Dijonai- Right...
15:01
clocked her,
15:02
Stephanie White, coach of the Fever, actually said something like calming and sort of said, "I don't think that's in Dijonai's character," or whatever, 'cause I guess she coached Dijonai at some point before. Yes. Yeah.
15:14
And fans just ripped her. Mm-hmm. So finally she got up and she's like, "We gotta stop with this," like, "Enough of this." And good for her for doing that. No, no, she should. Yeah.
15:25
But, but I also understand the fans and team kind of feel in a way about it, right? Like- I, I under- I understand [laughs] their side of it as well... she took a swipe at her head midair, like it's, you know.
15:33
But I don't think you should go after your own coach for having- Yeah... calming words or, or intended to be calming. I do think that there's...
15:41
The one I've never understood about- Like, like somehow that equates with her not being on your side of this. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
15:47
I get, I get it, but like even just listening to her comments, they felt a little forced from that end, right?
15:51
Like she's like, "Do I really have to get up here to say that I defend my team and like, and I'm, I have my team's back?" Like felt a little forced.
15:56
I, I will tell you this, it is amazing to me that this league, which has, and let's again, let's say it, it's because Caitlin Clark was the driving force of all this- Mm-hmm, mm-hmm...
16:05
has more attention than it ever has had before ever in life, that they can't get out of their own way. I know. They cannot get out of their own way.
16:14
The off the court stuff or s- f- or antics on the court, whatever you wanna call them- Right, right... overshadow the games themselves. It's wild.
16:22
And it is this ev- i- both sides are entrenched in their viewpoints on this. They are r- they are absolutely resolute in how they see this, and they [laughs] it's just amazing to watch.
16:33
And my joke the other day- It's, it's amazing to watch it continuously get in their own way... it's inc- it's incredible. Right? It's incredible.
16:38
And it's, it's, with, with Caitlin Clark, like this, this is, you can't say this very often about many other sports, right? But like,
16:46
are we sure, are we sure they're ever gonna have more talent in the league than they do right now? It's a fun league to watch, man. You know me, like it's the golden age, and yeah, like the fact that you're...
16:55
Ah, it's wild. Olivia Miles is so good, man. She like- She's so good. Yeah. It's- The Caitlin Clark one I still don't get though of like the- Fever scoring 100 points a game, right? 100 points a game. What is it? Yeah.
17:05
12 games or something, WNBA record. That's fun as hell to watch. We brought this up when she first came in the league.
17:11
But like, okay, we know how this would've been wor- this would've been worked out in the '80s in the NBA. Oh, yeah. Even in today's NBA, this stuff gets worked out.
17:20
Like I can't believe Caitlin Clark takes like any excessive contact whatsoever and there's not someone's job on that team to settle it on the court. 22 and 10 for Clark yesterday. Kelsey Mitchell with 28.
17:33
Fever top 100 points again. Beat the Liberty 106-92. Yeah, gonna be fun in the playoffs too. I mean, what did, what does Kelsey Mitchell do? It's like 20 plus points per game for like 20 straight games.
17:43
Something ridiculous. Absolutely making that up, but it's been a lot. We could go on, but we don't wanna turn it into a complete sports talk radio. Well, I, let's talk, well, now I'm counting this.
17:51
It's, it's- Or maybe we can... hold on, this is a lot of straight games of over 20 points for Kelsey Mitchell. This is incredible Yeah, she's great It's like 20 games. Yeah. It's like 20 games.
18:03
Uh, earlier on the show, we started the show, we didn't start it, but like first segment of the show, we, we started talking about these win total match bets that are available at DraftKings.
18:12
And essentially, it's just a different way that you can bet into season win total markets- Mm-hmm... but not in the traditional sense of over nine and a half, under nine and a half, whatever.
18:23
Not alternate season win totals on a team, but team versus team in other words. And for those who missed it, we'll get to yours here afterwards, Kelly, but I just wanna repeat, there's a few ways you can attack this.
18:33
A team that you have higher than the market, sort of flush them out against a few teams. Yep. Pick on a team that you have lower in the market, or cherry-pick just a specific match up. I've done all three of those.
18:42
And, and look, can, can I a- Yeah... I think that's the most important part of the conversation, right? How to use a market like this. Yep. And y- you identified a bunch of them.
18:49
I think, yeah, like just the combination of the couple, right? Hey, maybe there's that team that you're not, you don't wanna go bet an over win total on, but you lean that way. Mm-hmm.
18:57
And you combine a team with a lean to the under, that okay, maybe this is where the, you could see a little value.
19:02
Yeah, in other words, would I rather bet the Falcons over, or would I rather t- have the, take a shot on them- Right... right, against another team and get more bang for my buck? My answer would be this.
19:12
Falcons plus 140 versus the Giants. Falcons plus 160 versus the Saints in their own division. Falcons plus 170 versus the Bucs in their own division.
19:20
Uh, the reason I didn't have the Panthers in there is 'cause it was only like plus 115, so I chose the longer shots. And then Falcons plus 190 over the Steelers. Again, I'm higher on the Falcons than the market is.
19:31
Mm-hmm. And I like the bang for your buck. All you have to do is have more wins than the team you're playing against at the end of the regular season, and that's how this works.
19:40
And again, as Kelly pointed out earlier, you can also get a push on these.
19:43
And this is like combi- okay, so what's the, like what, basically what Gil would be doing here is he's playing an alt over on the Falcons, but he doesn't need that alt over on the Falcons to hit to possibly win some or all of these bets, because all the Falcons have to do is have more wins than these other teams.
19:59
And alt overs ain't what they used to be. Mm. When Drew first came on the show and, you know- Mm-hmm...
20:04
properly identified the difference in pricing between your standard season win total and your alts, the alt pricing was way out of whack. It, it was awesome for the bettors.
20:14
Well, they've ratcheted that back, so then we look for something else to, or some other way to exploit. So we choose this one. Colts, by the way, I have plus 140 over the Steelers.
20:22
Seahawks plus 175 over the Rams, because I do think the Seahawks. Like, my biggest, one of my macro statements in this off-season, um... And by the way, let me be clear also.
20:32
These are just, we were tasked with glancing at these yesterday and coming up with our best ones. These are my best ones. I have not bet any of these yet. These are the best ones that I've come up with.
20:41
Seahawks plus 175 versus the Rams. I get all the Rams love, but the Seahawks, I really believe, like, if ever a Super Bowl champion was underrated heading into a subsequent season, it feels like the Seahawks kind of are.
20:56
Mm-hmm. And I got them plus 175ers of the Rams, 'cause I absolutely don't think that's outlandish, that they s- finish the regular season over the Rams. They don't.
21:04
Yeah, I mean, you're, you're lining up- And injuries-... two teams with similar win totals. Right, like- Injuries mean so much here, too, right? You have a bunch as well. Yeah, absolutely.
21:12
And I'm, I'm actually heading to a DraftKings state this weekend. I will be betting, I think, every single one of these. Th- this is, I, I mean it, Gil.
21:19
I, I think w- the options this gives you, this, this is one of my favorite, if not my favorite markets that I've seen pop up out of nowhere- Yeah... here in the past couple years.
21:27
I, I really, just really wish I had these before regular season win totals came out, because I think that's how, how you're divvying up that pie changes a little bit, and I do think that's a fair question, right?
21:39
How, how much should you be betting on these versus a team's win total? Oh, 100%. That's something you gotta figure out for yourself, and I'm gonna be figuring that out a little bit this weekend.
21:48
But there's too much value in some of these, I, I think, to, to turn away from it. So I think these are gonna be actually a fair amount of bets into this market for me, Gil. Ooh, I like your last one. Yeah.
21:57
Yeah, a fair amount of bets into this for me, but they're probably gonna be smaller, 'cause I've already bet these w- these win totals with a lot of these teams. The first one, this is the other one, though.
22:05
I was n- I was surprised that this was gonna be something where it offered some value in this market. Where there's divisions where you only think there's two teams really in a fight for it, go compare division prices.
22:18
So I already laid minus 125 of the Bills to win the AFC East. You can isolate Bills over Patriots- Coin flip... at minus 110. You're getting a better number than the division odds. It's a better number, yes.
22:28
Even the better number at DraftKings. How often do we say shop within the same shop, right? Yep.
22:32
So I just don't have to wor- I, I just have to worry about whether the Jets or Dolphins can ruin this, but I don't really think that's gonna be an issue.
22:39
So I started with that one, and then it was a lot of the win total related ones, right?
22:44
The Jaguars, I've talked about being high on the Jags, but I'm not necessarily sold on betting them to win the division, even though I kinda like it.
22:51
And I'm not nec- I don't know if I wanna run to bet their over regular season win total. Okay, so let me pick on a team I'm low on. Jags over Panthers, I don't know if I'm gonna go lay 185.
23:02
I actually think that's the one on this list that I'm not gonna bet. But, eh, mainly just 'cause I think, kinda like you identified, chasing some of those plus pl- prices- That, that's what I'm saying. You should-...
23:11
a little better... I, that would also be my macro strategy, is go for, go for shots. Y- you could bet more- Yeah... and go for some shots. Yeah. Yeah. V- Vikings over the Panthers, oh, I'm betting that for sure.
23:20
Minus 150, I'm a believer in the Vikings. I'm all, completely out on the Panthers. I think minus 150 is cheap. Play Vikings plus 115 over the Steelers.
23:28
Steelers, look, I, I, it th- wouldn't be, no shock at all if they end up being in that six, seven, eight win territory, but I think the Vikings have this, uh, this high-end potential, man. And then the Jets.
23:38
Cleve TA brought, uh, up the Jets yesterday, man. Yeah, he did. I've been, this is a team I've been getting a little bit higher and higher and higher on over the past few weeks.
23:46
Yeah, I'll pick on some of the bottom, bottom feeders. Jets over the Browns at plus money. Jets over the Panthers at t- over two to one. We don't say this often, but good job, DraftKings. Really good job.
23:55
I love this market. Yeah. Very cool. Okay, guys. Uh, we ta- we talked about Kyler Murray being the starting quarterback for the Vikings earlier. Might as well broaden it to a whole NFC North discussion.
24:05
Let's do that next It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:23
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24:57
That's jointhes sharps.com and use promo code VSiN50. It's a nice graphic there on the screen as well. Yeah, beautiful. A lot of things happening up there.
25:04
Um, did we talk about, uh, this before, a while, I was in San Francisco? Did I recommend the, uh, Quarterbacks doc again this year? Yes, you did. Okay. We talked about it quickly. Re- Yeah... oh, yeah. Really good.
25:16
Joe Flacco featured, Baker Mayfield, Cam Ward, Jayden Daniels.
25:21
Dustin and I had a quick conversation about it too, 'cause we both agreed that we will likely, even though I have not seen an episode yet, definitely a better chance of me seeing that than, uh, Hard Knocks. Oh, for sure.
25:30
I don't even think about Hard Knocks anymore. The Hard... Me either. Dustin- Don't even think about it anymore... and you know what? You and I have had the conversation. Yeah.
25:35
Dustin and I had never had the conversation together. Yeah. And we, he s- he said what we always say, just the formula. Like, the formula's played out. It's played out, yeah. It's a g- it was a great idea.
25:44
It's a great idea. It, it takes a specific team that has to have the good enough characters to make it work, a la Cleveland Browns, Baker Mayfield, Hue Jackson. Who names their baby Carl?
25:57
Coochie, Coochie, Coochie Carl back in the day, all that. Mm-hmm. The Cleveland Browns was a great one. Um, also, uh, for those who, uh, like, uh, sports documentaries, have you seen Rafa, the Rafael Nadal documentary?
26:09
No. Four, four-part series. Oh, geez. Unbelievable. We had no idea what this dude went through with injuries to get to 22 Grand Slams. It's incredible. Rafa on Netflix as well.
26:21
And then, uh, because people seem to like the Keith Urban yacht, uh, yacht rock, uh, musical recommendation from earlier in the week, are you familiar with Will Ferrell's kid, Magnus Ferrell? Bes- no, besides the name.
26:35
Will Ferrell's kid, Magnus Ferrell, is an aspiring musical artist. He's not only aspiring, he is doing it and doing it well. Uh, he is, uh, 22 years old. He has a, uh, song out now that's called Sl- Asleep Talking.
26:53
Asleep Talking. Okay. It is so awesome. Really? It is phenomenal. Smooth R&B. He is- Oh, I am listening to this... great vocals, great groove. Magnus Ferrell. Magnus. Incredible.
27:10
Like, I just couldn't believe it, 'cause it's sort of like, he's sort of like that Will Ferrell body type, and you don't expect this to come out of him. It's, it's outstanding. Outstanding.
27:18
Shout out to Magnus Ferrell for Asleep Walking. I got lost in, I don't even know the name of it, but one of the- Asleep Talking. Pardon me... one, one of the many, many, many Michael Jordan, like, mini docs. Yeah.
27:29
Like, I j- it was on NBA TV and I... Like, every time one comes up, I just sit down for, like, w- for however, whatever the remaining time is on it, just end up watching it, 'cause so, just, I, every...
27:40
How many amazing Jordan stories are there from when he played? Oh. And they're just, they're all so good. Um, I was trying to find it while you were talking, but the wa- I think it was the Hornets he was playing.
27:50
Do you remember this game where he was like, he started off miserable from, from the field, was like, he was, like, two for, like, 10 or something like that through, through three quarters, and some nobody was, like, chirping at him like, "Good," you know, "Good game, Mike," and then he goes and drops, like, 20 in the fourth quarter?
28:05
Oh, the Kevin- You know what I'm talking about? That's the Kevin Garnett story. This sounds like the Kevin Garnett story. No, it wasn't Garnett. It was- Oh, 'cause G- Garnett tells a story when he was, like, a kid.
28:13
That's right. Two minutes. And, and JR Rider was, was, was scoring, like, 30 on Mike, and Garnett was, like, hyping up his teammate and [laughs] and JR Rider was like, "Shut up." [laughs] "Shut up.
28:25
What are you talking about?" It's every story where someone talks trash to Mike- Yeah... and he just shoves it in their face. It's amazing.
28:32
Who was the, who was the kid on the, uh, on the Bullets, the Washington Bullets, that scored 37 on Jordan? Maybe this is where I was going. Do you know this story? Maybe this is where I was going.
28:41
Uh, Washington Bullets had a kid. Oh, God, I forget who this was now. LaBradford Smith. LaBradford Smith scored 37 points on Michael Jordan, and they, I think it was a home and home where they played him again.
28:56
Los- the next game. As Jordan [laughs] shortened that. And so Jordan comes out the next game and he scores, like, 40 at halftime. [laughs] It's ridiculous. I like the best, the best part about Mike that I just...
29:10
We, we have, we always have to talk about how these, these guys have to act, right? It's not just play, but how do you act and carry yourself? Is there anything better than Michael Jordan just zero blanks given, right?
29:21
Like, "You're gonna talk trash to me?" Oh. "I'm gonna score all over you and then talk trash to you. Talk trash to your mom probably. Talk trash to whoever afterward."
29:29
Yeah, the end of that Garnett story was Garnett telling JR, he's, "You're right, man. I should've said- [laughs]... shouldn't have said anything. Shouldn't have said anything."
29:35
Uh, we talked about Kyler Murray, the, uh, the stated starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings by Coach Kevin O'Connell yesterday here while we were on the air, and I went through earlier, again, for whatever reason, and Ma- you know, uh,
29:48
w- who was it? Will, yeah. Will earlier brought up the fact that Lombardi used to call him the Mayor of Munchkinland. Mm-hmm.
29:52
And people have this sort of, like, diminishing opinion or demeaning opinion of Kyler Murray, but in fact, when he has been healthy, as recently as 2021 and 2024, he has been really good, like cusp of top 10 NFL quarterback.
30:08
So- I, I mean, he's one of five, I think it's only five, Gil In history that have gone for 20, 10 seasons at the quarterback position. 20 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns. Yeah.
30:18
And, and by the way, all the numbers don't reflect necessarily his running numbers, and again, he's never played with receivers like this, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Ja'Marr Chase.
30:25
What about the rest of this division? I'll, I'll s- you know, look, as much as people wanna hype up the Vikings, it's still the Lions. Let's, let's, let's not, let's not get it twisted.
30:35
Lions are gonna be favored around 13 or 14 of their scheduled games. They got the sixth easiest projected schedule by DVOA. I mean, they're playing the Titans, the Giants, the Cardinals.
30:44
Remember last year, talked about the Tigers having the best run differential- Mm-hmm... in the AL?
30:48
Well, the Lions had the best r- win, uh, excuse me, best point differential in the NFC North last year and finished s- last. Uh, they came in last even though they were third in the league in DVOA.
31:00
One of two teams along with- Yeah... the Seahawks to finish in the top 10 of DVOA in all three phases, and they had a bustle of injuries. So- That was, that was DVOA and pro football focus, like all season long. Yes.
31:10
Remember we kept talking about that for the p- last, like, month of the season? So with all the Vikings talk going on the air, it's, it's still the Lions division. What about Green Bay and Chicago?
31:18
Green Bay, I brought this up when we talked NFC North before I went to, uh, San Francisco for the summer. With Green Bay, remember, they've made the playoffs three years in a row, Green Bay. Mm-hmm.
31:28
But they've made it as the seven seed every year. Yep. And so Green Bay's one of these really interesting teams because you think of, oh, they're a perennial playoff team.
31:36
Yeah, but if we still only had six seeds, they would never have made the playoffs.
31:39
And oh, by the way, if you then look at their three straight playoff performances, but instead look at it through total wins over that time span, they're 13th in total wins in the NFL over that timeframe.
31:51
So, and, and then we still don't know when Micah Parsons is coming back. Mm-hmm. Is the biggest thing with this team. They got holes on the offensive line. I don't really trust that receiving corps.
32:00
However, I think they're probably still... I think they're the, I think they're the most known team that we have heading into this season. In that division? Yeah. Yeah. A- and I think there is a relatively high- Mm...
32:13
floor, in my opinion, for Green Bay, 'cause I think Jordan Love is so good. I think Le Flore is good. I think I... It's a fascinating division, and I think Chicago might be the most fascinating of all of them.
32:22
Oh, I was g- I think it's a to- I think it's a toss-up. I'm actually, I'm actually surprised you're that convinced that the Lions- I am convinced it's the Lions... or, and, I mean, the...
32:29
So them, for them, it's the schedule gives them such a high floor. Yes. Right?
32:33
Like, it's, yes, it's going to be very hard for the Lions to have a terrible season just because of the schedule, but, like, that defense I think is a nightmare. Okay, speaking of nightmare defenses, though.
32:43
I mean, the Chicago- Yes, Chicago. [laughs] The Chicago Bears, um, first of all, Caleb Williams to throw over 4,000 yards, book it. The Chicago Bears, you are gonna get your first 4,000 passer this year.
32:55
And that, uh, I'll- 4,000 yard passer... okay, love that, and that was the bet. I don't know if you were here for it or not. I did the same bet with the Cowboys last year.
33:02
I went over their total points scored for the season. That's right. Well, here's the deal, and the reason for that is because their offense, the Bears offense, is going to be great. Their defense most likely will stink.
33:12
Um, worst defea- worst defensive DVOA projection this season. One of the biggest lopsided offense first, uh, offensive projections versus defense that the model over there has ever spat out.
33:27
And remember the thing with the defense. 18.3% of Chicago's defensive drives ended in a turnover last year. That's the highest turnover rate of the 2020s so far. That's crazy.
33:36
They went nine and O in games where they had multiple turnovers, three and seven in games they didn't, then 11.1% DVOA on first and second downs, 26th in the league, and then got ridiculously good on third and fourth downs.
33:47
The problem is, is that it's what happens on first and second downs is the most predictive. So, by the way, they recovered 10 of the 14 fumbles they forced on defense.
33:57
That's the second year in a row they've had unbelievable fumble luck. And for those who are shouting, "What do you mean? Maybe it's a skill," no. Forcing fumbles perhaps is.
34:05
Recovering fumbles is not a repeatable skill, and yet the Bears have done this for two years in a row. Yep.
34:11
So between the first and second down performance on defense and the ridiculous turnover luck on their part on defense, it is just, like, the regression is coming.
34:21
The offense is gonna be on the field a whole bunch, and it's going to be a fascinating season in Chicago where, maybe Caleb Williams, maybe he is special. Yeah. But it's a great division.
34:33
The bottom is the Vikings at eight and a half wins. The Packers and Bears are above them at nine and a half, and they're on the lines at ten and a half.
34:38
See, this is where-- And I know Will, I know me and Will are kind of on the same page with this. This is just division odds, though, Gil.
34:43
I think they're so bunched, it would have to be Vikings or nothing for me if I was gonna bet a division price. Same thing as the NFC South. Yeah. Just not good teams in the NFC South.
34:53
And again, I always put this disclaimer in. Think about what we think we know, and then everybody plays Survivor within three weeks. Oh, yes. 70% of Survivor pools are done- Yep... every year.
35:04
That's what makes this the greatest reality show of them all. Coming back on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:10
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:27
Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. A contest weekend coming up, uh, by the end of this month? Yes. For Circa? Two, two weekends. Two weekends from now. Excite, very excite.
35:41
Two weekends or three? Uh, three weekends. Three weekends from now. That's right. Uh, looking forward to that. Folks coming back in town. Um, we get tweets between the both. No emu, Doug. AI can start with LA. Wow.
35:56
Why LA? You don't like LA? Glorious weather. Uh, props profit. That's, uh, riffing off what Todd said earlier. I mean, I, I sent, uh, Gil an AI, uh, song yesterday. There's, AI's taking over. It really is.
36:09
Oh, it's, it... Can I tell you something? I am I wish we could just go back to how it was- Yeah. Oh, me too... a short while ago. 'Cause like you go, it's like, "Is this a Bruno Mar- No, it's not a Bruno Mars song."
36:22
Is this, is this real news? No, it's not real news. Was that Crosby, Stills & Nash I sent you with Little John on top of it? First of all- It's brilliant...
36:28
first of all, I get a message from Kelly on a platform I never get a message from Kelly on. [laughs] I'm like, "Is Kelly re- " Yeah. It was, what was it? A, uh, it was a Crosby, Stills & Nash with Little John.
36:39
It's just Little John, "Yeah," throw it in the middle. [laughs] It's fantastic. Uh, n- uh, let's see. Props Prophet, "A water from the heavens is Hilden water." You had this before? "It's the best water I have had ever.
36:50
They w- they're a well-respected pizza place here in LA carries it, and they know everything about water. Fiji water is wholly toxic," he says. Huh. He's just like- Hilden, with a D? That's what he said, with a D.
37:01
I've never seen this before. Yeah. It, it looks pretty fancy. We might have to give it a shot. Well, we like a fancy water. That's right, yeah. GV, New Jersey/New York, "Man, Gil's really sold on Tua, isn't he?" No.
37:13
It's just that we were tasked with talking about the best bets in that market, and for that I love the Falcons because I do think beyond Tua, just look at the skill position players on that football team.
37:25
And the defense, I know the James Pierce thing, I know what's going on, but the defense really showed signs last year at times. I just, I just feel like they are the most talented team in that division, for sure.
37:37
So I think the best way to play them is to pair them in that particular market.
37:41
Rich Copro, "I've, uh, been near Todd Wishev in a SportsBook South Point when he would say things like, 'Have you noticed that New Mexico always wins the second half?' At that point I would run to the window.
37:49
Las Vegas misses you, Todd," he says. Kenny Dillingham Sexual, that is a real name, "A tale as old as time. Kelly glazing the Bills and fading the Steelers into oblivion. What could possibly go wrong?" Yeah.
38:00
That's right, 2026 football season's right around the corner. Let's go Josh Allen and see you later Pittsburgh Steelers. Get out of my face. [laughs] Oh, God.
38:10
Cubsfan1643, he said, "Kelly, you just noticed on head-to-head wins," he said, "ties are graded as losses. Beware." I think you're thinking of- I, I've exchanged with him a c- a couple times.
38:20
He's pretty s- he's pretty sure. He's pretty sure? Sounded pretty sure. So- Oh, 'cause I thought he was, I thought he was referring to the one with the tie that has an option. Yeah.
38:28
But he's saying that in the head-to-head it does? Yeah. The ones that we were talking about? Yeah, the ties are- Well- The ties are losses? Was it w- Losses...
38:34
first of all, was it not prominently displayed, that language? Or where did- No, not, not at all... where did he find that language? Yeah, I don't know.
38:39
Cubs fan, if you're listening, yeah, send me a screenshot of those house rules. Yeah. I don't know Cubs fan, I'm not sure if that's correct. Um- No, I, but like, I, I, if he is- If he is...
38:47
it's, that's a killer to that market... it is a killer to the market and it's also, hey, uh, DraftKings, you wanna, you wanna let us know? Yeah... in a more prominent place if that's the case?
38:56
'Cause it's b- 'Cause why would you assume anything else? Why would you assume any- anything el- I mean, it's a, it's, that type of market, that's, that's a push. That's just a push every time.
39:07
Xavier82, "Todd, when you were betting the WNBA before Clark arrived and its popularity soared, could you bet game props like quarter totals that you do now?" Oh, got a little something with Todd.
39:19
Maybe he didn't read that voice and that's just me. Yeah, I was gonna say, I t- I actually took that as a real question. He says, "I remember it being pretty limited a couple years ago.
39:25
Tailed, um, Dani Alvari swoon plays," he says. Oh, blast from the past. Dani Al- Dani Alvari did not like being called Danny, that much I remember. Yeah, that's right. Forgot about that.
39:36
PAW says, "Magnus should have taken dad's route." Uh, PAW, send me your address. I'm sending you a box of Q-tips for Christmas 'cause if you can't hear That Smooth, then you, I can't even.
39:48
I don't even know what your ears are doing. It's so good.
39:51
It was- Well, wasn't the comment on Magnus- It, it, Magnet, he, he thinks that the m- he said Magnus should have taken dad's route, which is comedy obviously, and he says he shouldn't be a singer is what he means.
40:01
Let me tell you something, that song is a banger. It is fantastic. First thing I'm putting on when I get in the car. Dude, don't let the, don't judge a book by its cover. Just listen.
40:11
If I didn't tell you it was Magnus Farrell and then I gave it to you, you'd be all over it. I, I know like a- PAW, your address, Q-tips. Do you prefer the brand name or should I get the s- store brand for you?
40:19
I know a lot of people have turned on like, like just first of all they're like comedies just like aren't in movie theaters anymore 'cause you can't make any money off of it, right? So like, they just don't make them.
40:28
And, and I know a lot of people have like, turned on like, the Will Farrells of the world of like, he's in too much, he's not that funny anymore. Yeah. Can you imagine having Will Ferrell as your father though?
40:37
[laughs] Like th- that's gotta be the most supportive like, environment ever. I, I, that's how I would imagine, having seen Will Ferrell in a million different interviews. He, he, he never fails to crack me up.
40:49
He, he named his kid Magnus. He did. Named his kid Magnus. Mm-hmm. Um, by the way, that brings up a whole nother topic. Comics that never made you laugh that people love. Robin Williams never made me laugh. Ooh.
41:02
Like, not once. Yeah. I mean, I liked some of the movies but- Yeah. A lot of- Stand-up comedy though? Uh, just generally speaking. Yeah, yeah, no. Like, people are dying laughing at his antics. I just never... Yeah.
41:14
Uh, Elena Rybakina plus 106 versus Coco Gauff. You think there's ever been a Robin Williams to Elena Rybakina segue ever? [laughs] Elena Rybakina plus 106 versus Coco.
41:23
That's the play in the semis in Toronto tonight at the bank tournament there in Canada. They're in the semis on the ladies side in Toronto, semis on the men's side.
41:31
By the way, three of the four men's semifinalists, American. American. Ben Shelton, Learner Tien, Brandon Nakashima. Whoa, where he at? And guess what? Rafa Hodar is gonna beat them all, I think. Where's Big Foe at?
41:46
Where's my guy at? Big Foe's waiting for stateside. He's waiting for Cincinnati. Uh, I'm on Rybakina versus Gauff in one of the ladies semis, Iga's in the other one. Let's go both Rybakina and Iga.
41:56
Uh, also of course the li- the, uh, the Tigers, pardon me. Tigers most wins in the month of August, 60 to one, seven and two. Off to a really good start.
42:04
And then the, uh, 10 point teaser, again, not widely available anymore. These used to be a staple of preseason football, but you can find them in some places. Uh, I'm on the Dolphins commanders over 25 and a half.
42:16
These are the 10 point teasers. Dolphins, Commanders over 25 and a half. Bucs, Jets over 26. Rams, Chiefs over 26 and a half. What could go wrong? Cubs fan 1643 just made me so sad. What, oh, what'd he say? Oh, no.
42:31
About the more wins than thing. I, I, I, I'm going to Tennessee this weekend. I was bringing money with me, Bill. I'm still, I'm still not buying it. I, I wanna see the, I wanna see the language.
42:40
Yeah, I gotta figure that out with DraftKings. And where did he find the language? Like, yeah, that's the bigger question. Where, where'd you find it? Uh, okay. Oh. Pre-season. Yes, he did. He found it. He found it.
42:49
Once you put it in your bet slip- Oh... once, once you put it in your bet slip, thank you Cubs fan, then it appears. Sure. Well, that just killed that market a bit. Yeah, that's cool. All right, anyways- Yeah...
43:01
pre-season week one, [laughs] uh, Packers, uh, I'm taking a point with. I've got the six-point teaser, Colts and Chargers up. Titans plus two and a half, and Chiefs money line.
43:10
Yes, most of these have moved, moved in my direction. All of them are being put up at visa.com as soon as I bet them.
43:15
This is, that is the sound of a very, very sad Kelly Bidlin, and very sad for both of us who spent a lot of time [laughs] on it today. But how would you know? How could you know?
43:25
Well, no, 'cause there's no reason for me and you to ever put anything into a DraftKings bet slip because we can't bet it. That's right. So all we said was, like, "These are what I would bet."
43:33
Although it is good to know, I guess. Is that, is that how DraftKings does things now, if you, like every house rule pops up in the bet slip? By the way, DraftKings, shame on you for doing it that way.
43:42
Just put a little line at the top, man. Also because it's like- It's one line... you're way more likely to miss that after you've put it in the bet slip. Of course.
43:49
Yeah, I mean, and when I say fine print, he gave us a screenshot. It is fine print. I can already picture it without seeing it. There you go. All right. Look, look at that. Look at that right there. Golf this week.
43:57
That's how small it is. Oh, yeah. There you go. It's like classic fine print too, where there's 900 words in there.
44:03
Hey, remember DraftKings, when I said earlier, "Hey, we don't usually say this, but good job DraftKings"? I take it all back. Taking it all back. All right, St.
44:09
Jude Championship this week, Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim in the outrights mar- uh, outright market. Top 10 on all those guys as well.
44:18
One top 20 on Viktor Hovland, and match-ups so far, Sam Burns over Xander Schauffele, Alex Smally over Bud Cauley, Alex Smally over Jordan Spieth. Any other adds that I have will be up at vsen.com, uh, today.
44:32
I'm sure I'll be messing around in first round leader market tomorrow.
44:34
All right, and then a bevy of picks from, uh, some of our guests earlier on the show today, including the great Will Hill, uh, who was on, gave out some baseball plays.
44:43
He is taking the Cubs, number one seed in the National League at 15 to 1. Cubs find themselves three wins behind the, uh, Brewers right now for the number one seed.
44:53
Today, Major League Baseball, he's on the Tigers versus the Guardians. He's on the Yankees, Mariners under eight and a half. Oh, and he also played the Tigers to make the playoffs at plus 155 as well.
45:03
All that from Will on the baseball side of things. Uh, in addition to Will Hill, little late, little later on the show, who we got? Who we had on there? Nick Whelan? Nick Whelan had n- no plays. Did he have any?
45:14
Uh, we got nothing from Nick. No. Who was in between? I'm forgetting somebody, wasn't I? Do you- Nothing from Nick, nothing from Todd. Spora. Nothing from Spora. Oh, no, no, we didn't, had, we had specific picks.
45:22
Those guys. Okay. Very good. PW has, uh, tweeted me back. He says, "Q-tip is fine, brother. Just didn't feel it. I'll give it more time." Well, I appreciate that, PW. That's good. Give it a little more.
45:31
Give it a little another listen. This is, this is like a- That's not one of those that requires a second listen, though. That's one, the second you hear it, you're like, "Oh my God, what is this?"
45:38
I'm putting it on as soon as I get in the car. Yeah. This is annoying fine print too. Are you kidding me? NFL ties do not count as wins, period. The team must have more wins than the other team, period.
45:48
If both teams finish with the same number of wins, bets will be settled as lost. What? Oy vey. Yeah, Denver Lance says, "Once you attempt to bet it, the rules are clear." Yeah, if you have a magnifying glass.
45:59
Prop Points is next. The joy for Vsen, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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