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Aug 13, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 13, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 13, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy. Hey-o.
0:21
What's happening? Not much, man. You good? Yeah, we were having such an interesting conversation pre-show. We should just really just roll, dude, just roll the open over our conversations every Saturday.
0:29
VSiN plus, plus, plus subscription. Yeah, that's right. [laughs] That's right. It was, it's a, it was a offshoot of our Lenny Kravitz conversation- It was, yeah... which became an Enrique Iglesias conversation.
0:38
Which I was telling you I've had, I've had the Lenny Kravitz conversation with, like, three other people at this point, that la- the conversation lasts at least 15 to 20 minutes.
0:46
For those who missed it, what his place is in music. Just, and just why is he famous? Fit him in. Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting. Anyway, uh, on the show today, uh, JBT joins us. How about that?
0:59
Uh, we, we were able to book JBT MLB college football with him later on the show, actually coming up pretty soon, actually. Pete Futak on the Big 12 as, uh, college football, but 11 days away.
1:11
Jason Weingarten on baseball. Paul Spohrer will join us as well. Uh, throw in some DFS with him. And then, uh, Paul Carr with his Premier League pre-floppers, all his season longs in the Premier League. It's interesting.
1:23
He goes, uh, from golden boot to relegation and beyond. We'll do that with Paul Carr a little later on the show. Um- I'm excited. Nothing like a 14- I am actually pumped... nothing like a 14-month sweat, Gil, you know?
1:34
Just one season. [laughs] That's right. Premier League, we barely ever end. You could, you could have that ticket forever.
1:40
Um, okay, let's get the tennis picks out of the way, then we'll get to what was a spectacular night, I thought, in baseball yesterday.
1:47
Uh, nothing yesterday because there's only a couple real matches beyond the qualies in Cincinnati. This is the last big tournament before the US Open. Sorry, Cleveland, I know you got a 250. My apologies.
1:57
Uh, this is 1,000, both on the men's and ladies' side, the Western and Southern Open. I have, uh, two on the ladies' side, three on the men's side.
2:05
These, again, every host, every guest, every sport, every pick at vsin.com/picks for subscribers. My tennis is there every day. Zach Cohen's got tennis every day.
2:14
On the ladies' side, I have one play that I don't think you can play at the current price.
2:19
Last night, again, this is why it pays to be a subscriber, Ashlyn Krueger last night, plus 189 over Donna Vekic coming off her silver medal performance at the Olympics, and her runner-up performance, remember, at, uh, at Wimbledon.
2:33
Uh, Krueger now plus 140-something I'm seeing. I would not play it that low. That one is probably out of whack to me.
2:41
If you can find anything like plus 155 or up, I'd play it, but right now that one's probably unplayable. That's why you gotta be a subscriber. Victoria Tomova, though, you can play that.
2:50
Plus 187 is what I have her at over Karolína Plíšková. She's right around there right now. And then on the men's side, a trio of plays.
2:57
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, your, your boy, Kelly, uh, plus 113 over Frances Tiafoe. It's only a couple cents worse than that right now. Jordan Thompson, plus 165 over Hugo Humbert.
3:10
The Aussie, Jordan Thompson, that's in pocket. And Alex Mickelson's a little higher now. Uh, he's kind of on the edge. I'm seeing him at, like, minus 130. I don't know that I'd play Mickelson, quite frankly.
3:21
But if you did, I wouldn't, I wouldn't hate you. But don't play it any higher than that. He's taking on Tallon Griekspoor. Uh, but I got him at minus 119 last night.
3:28
So it's Krueger and Tomova on the women's side, though Krueger not in pocket anymore in terms of the parameters of where you should play it. Davidovich Fokina, Thompson, and Mickelson on the men's side.
3:38
Mickelson teetering on not being playable. Alejandro's, he's grown up to, uh, how do you say the, the, the second last name? Yeah. The first last name? I used to say Davidovich. Davidovich, I thought it was. Davidovich.
3:48
Right? Yeah. But yeah, but everybody pronounces it Davidovich. Oh, okay. Yeah. It's cool. We're, we're evolving. It's okay. And Frances Tiafoe, of course, is Tiafoe, but some people say Tiafoe, you know. Oh, really?
3:58
It's a whole, oh, it's a whole thing. Kelly Bidlin- Kelly and Bidlin pronouncing, uh, women's, uh, tennis names throughout the US Open It, uh- We're, we're planning that... yeah, yeah, we'll be doing that.
4:07
Uh, I mean, I was, I'm a little angry right now 'cause Davidovich I feel like I, I've, I've comfortably gotten down for the past couple years, and now this is like just a curve ball to, uh, for me.
4:16
Putting you through changes, Kelly Bidlin. Da- Davidovich, Davidovich. [laughs] I know. That's what they're telling me it is. Uh, Davidovich. Uh, okay, S- Samsonova is Samsonova you should know as well.
4:27
Get ready for that- Oh, no... as well. Uh, it's a whole thing. All right, baseball last night was awesome for, for a couple reasons. One strictly just baseball, the other betting. I mean, both have betting implications.
4:37
But, uh, first of all, what a, what a game at Oracle Park in San Francisco last night.
4:41
The Braves beat the Giants one to nothing in 10 as the Giants' post-game announcers, Greg Papa and former Giants Sergio Romo and George Kontos were moaning about afterwards, um, I think a little too much, by the way.
4:55
But what they, their point was correct, which is what a offensive way giving a ghost runner to end a spectacular classic pitching duel in Major League Baseball.
5:07
Uh, with a, with a ghost runner all you need to do was a bloop and a sack fly. The Giants couldn't do that, so the Braves win it one to nothing.
5:13
But it was the pitching duel between Chris Sale, who I will not call the presumptive NL Cy Young Award winner, but man, did he solidify it, uh, last night.
5:20
His, uh, let's put it, he s- he solidified his, uh, short shot status, let's put it that way. Uh, Chris Sale yesterday, seven innings of scoreless ball, gave up three hits, 12 K's against no walks. Is that good?
5:34
Uh, and then there's Blake Snell. There was a gentleman on Twitter last night who was like, "I don't know. If Blake Snell throws a no-hitter, do you think...
5:40
And then the Giants get in the playoffs, do you think he could be a Cy Young?" I'm like, "He's two and three. No." God, then I saw Mitch Moss reply, and I was like, "Going to bed."
5:48
I was like, "How am I going to bed before Mitch Moss?" [laughs] Are you guys entertaining, by the way? Mitch and Paulie deserve all credit for getting up at that hour They really do.
5:55
They really do Uh, but Blake Snell took a no-hitter into the seventh last night. Remember, two starts ago, he threw a no-no, so he's trying to, he was trying to do a Johnny Vander Meer with one game in between.
6:06
Uh, not to be. He, he went six and a third, gave up no runs, two hits, 11 K's against three walks.
6:13
Um, so it was just awesome, but the Braves won it one to nothing, so that was great, and again, Sale solidifying his, uh, front runner status in the NL Cy Young race.
6:21
The other thing was the Yankees were a minus 360 favorite against the White Sox, and they, they left nine runners on base in the first four innings. [laughs] And- Hey, that, that's the White Sox time to dominate...
6:36
and the White Sox, who had won one in their last 24 before last night, were like, "We're taking you down," and boy, did they. 12 to two, and we've gotten...
6:46
I, I just want from a historical standpoint, I w- I just want to get to the point, 'cause people are like, "Wow, minus 360 favorite loses."
6:52
When I was growing up in the old baseball world, Kelly, or at least when, uh, we've been tracking, you know, big favorites, I remember, like, in the early 2000s, there was a Randy Johnson pitched game for the Yankees where they were north of a $4 favorite taking on, you ready for this, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
7:11
Mm-hmm. And the Devil Rays took them down, and that was a big deal because it was north of a $4 favorite. But here's the story.
7:18
Until the year 2016, from that Randy Johnson performance until the year 2016, there was only, like, two $4 favorites in all of baseball in any game. One, one, the Yankees won in a game in 2005.
7:32
The Twins lost in a game against the Nationals in 2007 as a minus 435.
7:37
It was only starting later here in the last part of the last decade where the $4 favorite started to become a little more common, and I do mean a little more, um,
7:49
peaking in 2019, the year that the Nationals beat the Astros eventually in the World Series. The Astros were so good that in, at least, you know, not good in real life and then good per the market.
8:01
In August and September of 2019, heading into that postseason, the Astros played nine games in which they were lined as north of a $4 favorite, three of which they were north of a $5 favorite. Wow.
8:17
You may, you may ask, what did they do in those nine games? And this is the betting cautionary note as inspired by last night's Yankees loss at minus 360. They went seven and two. So what does that mean?
8:28
Seven units to the positive and then nine and a half to the negative with the two losses. So you can't, like, I mean, for those who think that this is, uh, easy peasy, it's baseball for God's sakes. Right. Yeah.
8:39
Anything can happen. Not just throw it in a parlay and, uh, and check tomorrow for the winnings. Well, I'm glad you brought that up, 'cause, you know, like, you know, for those who do tennis parlays on a daily basis,
8:49
and, and Lord knows I've done them, but, like, when you get to minus 500-ish and beyond, you do have to also ask yourself, is it even worth the risk of putting- Yeah, absolutely... this in my parlay? Absolutely.
9:01
Does it boost my parlay enough to even entertain that possibility of it killing my parlay? Anyway, so the Astros in 2019 were the peak of this. Uh, this year alone, Action Network posted this last night.
9:13
The Dodgers, I don't remember this. In eight- Me too. Me either... mid-April, they were minus four to f- minus 432 favorites against the Natties, and they lost.
9:23
And then last night, the Yankees at minus 360 losing to the White Sox. I also don't, like... It doesn't feel like... The 2019 notes don't surprise me at all except for I don't, I don't remember the mi- up to minus 500.
9:34
I don't remember $5 favorites. [laughs] Oh, no, the highest, the highest one was minus 521. Oh my gosh. They beat the Angels.
9:40
I do feel like- They lost, they lost as a minus 518 favorite to the Tigers that year in August.
9:46
I mean, I do remember, like, when we were doing prime time action, I mean, that was one of my, my one live betting strategy always was the Dodgers go down a run. I was like- Yeah...
9:53
"I'm just betting the Dodgers," 'cause- Yeah... it felt like they were $3 favorites every single night. I, I don't feel like we've seen as much of that this year, but I could be wrong.
10:02
Feels like really a c- you know, a couple years ago was when we kind of hit the height of that. The 2019 was definitely the peak. There's only a couple, we're talking about north of $4 now.
10:10
Only a couple in 2017, only a couple in 2018. In addition to the nine Astros games in 2019, there was a couple others. So there was 11. Hmm. 2019 was by far the, uh, the peak.
10:19
There was nothing in the, uh, in the pandemic year of 2020. Two instances in 2021, four in 2022. I'm not sure how many last year, but only two this year.
10:28
Um, I did make a baseball bet though yesterday of, uh, remainder of the season long, if you will. Still a quarter of the season left. That's insane.
10:37
Mark Borchardt and I are doing our Q3 on Monday, so everybody's rounding the, uh, the quarter poll, if you will, uh, here in the next few days.
10:45
I bet the Diamondbacks to be the number one seed in the National League at 12 to one. 12 to one.
10:55
The Diamondbacks, who, by the way, have the best record, not only one July for the best record, outright at Circa dead heating at, uh, William Hill Caesars, but they're the leader in the clubhouse in August, nine and two.
11:08
Now, they do have injuries, right? Um, even though E-Rod, Edward, Eduardo Rodriguez is having a second start back tonight, uh, Ketel Marte gonna miss the rest of the series.
11:18
He re-aggravated the ankle injury, so he's getting an MRI today. Um, hopefully he's okay. Um, they're getting Gurriel back, but Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno, they're not expected back for several weeks.
11:31
So there are injuries, but 12 to one, only three and a half behind the, uh, Dodgers for the number one record in the NL with a quarter of the season plus to play. I took a stab at that. We'll come back. JBT joins us.
11:44
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
I always look forward to, uh, Paul Carr's Premier League season-long appearance. I'm pumped too. I am, am, I'm actually very pumped about that.
12:08
Uh- I, I think I tried to book him like two weeks ago, and he was like, and it was like the first time ever Paul was like, "All right, give me like, give me a little bit of time."
12:14
[laughs] We, I, we actually hit him up during Bet Bash week. It, we, we didn't really have that much of a, that much room for him. Right. He was like, "Uh, give me one more week." [laughs] So he'll be here later.
12:24
By the way, Nigel Sealey, all his Premier League stuff at vsin.com, where you can really find every sport under the sun- Yep... being addressed.
12:33
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides, all at vsin.com. Check it out. We don't- I believe, I believe I see a matching bet too, between, uh- Oh, do you now?...
12:43
between Nigel and Paul Carrios. A matching season long? Yes. Ooh, I likes, I likes. Uh, we'll get to that later on.
12:50
Uh, before we get to some football stuff, 'cause there was, there's a, some sneaky injury and off the field stuff happening. Just wanna mention one more, uh, baseball thing.
12:58
First of all, oh, we, we glossed over the August wins. This, for whatever reason, didn't come up properly yesterday, so just to, just to clarify on August wins right now.
13:06
The Diamondbacks nine and two lead August, Padres eight and two. Those teams just, they don't, they apparently do not lose baseball games anymore.
13:14
Astros, Cubbies, both at seven and three, along with the Dodgers also at seven to three. Twins and Los Gigantes seven and four.
13:21
By the way, that Braves Giants game has had huge, as does this entire series, huge playoff implications in the National League wild card picture.
13:29
The Braves trying to stave off the Mets and the Giants for that number three position. And of course, some of us around here, Kelly, have Braves to miss the playoffs
13:38
positions, and have Giants to make, you know, to make the playoffs and go far in the playoff situat- That's, that's the thing about the Giants.
13:46
That Blake Snell performance last night, the Giants are absolute, with Logan Webb and Blake Snell, they are the proverbial you do not want them in the postseason team.
13:54
Well, it is like the, I, you know we were kind of, we're kind of joking about the Cy Young conversation, but it's more about, like, if, okay, if he can get on, fully on track, right?
14:02
And then, uh, what you gotta deal with with Blake Snell in the postseason, 'cause he was- Well-... stumbling coming out of the gate. Yeah, but Blake Snell in his last
14:10
41 and a third innings, no, check that, 42 and a third innings, I believe I have that correct, has given up 14 hits. Yeah, that's not bad. Hits.
14:22
Bob Melvin, who of course had a front seat to a Cy Young performance last year season long, he was asked last night, w- is this better than that? He goes, "Yeah, it's better than that. It's, he's way better."
14:33
He said it feels like every night he's gonna throw a no-hitter. Like, he's just- Wow... incredible, Blake Snell right now. Um, the other thing in baseball, so Andy V- [laughs] Good for Giants fans.
14:42
[laughs] It was, it was a shaky start to the season. Well, took him like three months to drive up from San Diego. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. That was, that was my joke before.
14:50
All right, so last thing on baseball here, uh, before we get to, uh, to the NFL, is Andy V tweeted last night, uh, one of our great listeners here on Numbers Game, he talked about the Marcell Ozuna conundrum.
15:02
Um, and every time we've ever brought up Marcell Ozuna on this show when it comes to winning awards, I have always said, "Hey, he was suspended 20 games in 2021 for domestic violence."
15:12
And so giving Marcell Ozuna a w- a, an award even three years after, I'm not saying I, uh, I'm not, I'm not making a judgment myself, I'm just saying will enough people vote for him for an award even if he is in play?
15:26
And so what you have this year in the American League and the National League is a fascinating situation, because in the American League, Aaron Judge is rolling. Rolling.
15:34
42 homers, that's seven more than Santander for the, uh, Orioles. 107 RBIs. That's 10 more than Jose Ramirez has. And then at 329, he is only 18 points behind Bobby Witt Jr.
15:51
18 points. That's it. Remember when, uh, we first brought up this Aaron Judge, uh, gets the field Triple Crown thing?
15:58
Um, people were worried because Stephen Kwan was coming off, you know, Stephen Kwan was going to get to enough, uh, at bats to qualify. Stephen Kwan is behind him now. But Bobby Witt Jr.
16:09
[laughs] Who's, what was that, I'm gonna give you the exact run that Bobby Witt Jr. is on to only be 18 points ahead of Aaron Judge. Bobby Witt has a batting average of 430 in his last 30 games. Yeah. With 52 hits.
16:21
It's insane. And he's only 18 points ahead of- [laughs]... of Aaron Judge. So Aaron Judge, that's how close he is to the Triple Crown.
16:26
Triple Crown, which has only happened once, 2012, Miguel Cabrera with the Detroit Tigers, since, since Kelly, since 1967 when Carl Yastrzemski did it. Okay.
16:38
Now, in the National League, um, s- uh, Kelly is frantically going around, seeing where we, we're getting audio. We're, we're shutting down everything as we're doing this.
16:46
[laughs] Uh, in the, in the National League- Is it your computer? [laughs] No, I don't know what it is. I think it was my phone maybe. National League, okay, the Ozuna conundrum is this.
16:55
Ohtani is the Judge equivalent in terms of, 'cause it's, Judge is minus 1400 to win MVP in the American League, and Ohtani is what, minus 1100, something like that? So Ohtani, 36 homers, 85 RBI, 298.
17:10
Ohtani minus 1800, Judge minus 1400. Oh, so, oh- MVP, is that what you're asking? Yeah, so Ohtani even a bigger favorite. Yes. My, my bad. He's even a bigger favorite, yes.
17:17
And then the, the Triple Crown real quick, um, the yes price nine to one on Judge. Nine to one on Judge. Actually, it's nine to one on, on Judge and Ohtani. Okay, so here's my point about Ohtani.
17:29
It should not be nine to one on Ohtani, 'cause here's the thing. Ozuna in Atlanta, Ohtani has 36 homers, he's in first. O- O- Ozuna has 35. This was Andy V's point. Ohtani has 85 RBI, Ozuna has 90,
17:43
and Ohtani is hitting 298, Ozuna is hitting 302. Yeah. So O- Ozuna is actually- That's-... closer to the Triple Crown than Ohtani is. What, is there an, is there a line? It's just Ohtani versus the field?
17:56
Yeah, there's a no price on him. What's the no price? Minus 1800. I mean, he's close to getting it, he's close to not getting it. I wish there was a price on Ozuna. Right. I'd like to see what that is. Yeah. Yeah.
18:05
The, the, the... What, what Andy V is pointing out is that Ozuna in the MVP market is 70 to 1. Mm.
18:11
And I'm just saying this is interesting because the betting market is reflecting what I'm talking about, like the reticence to vote for a guy like Ozuna. But think how historical the Triple Crown...
18:21
Remember in 2012 I went through the whole thing- Yeah. Yeah... where I'm like, "You have to give it to Miguel Cabrera," because it's been, at that time, 45 years since someone had done the Triple Crown. Yaz in '67.
18:32
So you can't, like, ignore it and just give it to Trout. They gave it to Cabrera correctly, and then they gave it to Trout the next year. Um, but now it's been 12 more years since someone's had the Triple Crown.
18:42
If Ozuna got it, he's 70 to 1 to win the MVP. Think how, think how stats evolve and how we perceive them. I'm just- It's- It's just very interesting. I want to say you...
18:53
I, I mean, we must have been talking about Ozuna, 'cause it was this hypothetical situation. I mean, it feels like two months ago we were having this conversation.
19:00
Yeah, the same conversation, where I brought up the domestic violence. And, and you asked me, like- Yeah... "What, what... Do you think he'd win?"
19:04
And, like, I, I th- I, I don't feel as sure saying it now, Gil, 'cause I think it's way easier to say in June or whenever we were having the conversation, but I still think he, I think he'd get to the Triple Crown.
19:14
I think he's winning it. I don't, I don't think- I don't know how you box out a Triple Crown. I don't, I don't think he's winning it. Okay. That, that's, that's just how it...
19:22
You know, it's like f- Felix won the, Felix won a Cy Young winning 12 games in 2010. Was it 12 or 13? I can't remember. In 2010. So we, we got over not having to win games.
19:34
But I, that's why I bring it up, and I think Andy V makes a great point, because it's like have we gotten that far past the Triple Crown being something? A Triple Crown is a made up thing, right? Yeah. Yeah.
19:43
It's like, okay, they just decided home runs, RBI, and average was, was the thing. But it ha- didn't happen for 45 years, now it hasn't happened in 12.
19:50
But Cabrera getting it in 2012 means we've just X'd it out from our brains as a thing? Maybe. It's interesting. 'Cause he's 70 to 1. He's not even close- Oh, my God. Yeah... in the MVP market.
20:00
I don't- And I don't know that I c- I don't hit a flyer on that ticket, though. Like- If he didn't have the off the field stuff, I don't...
20:06
I, maybe I would recommend it, but I can't in good conscience, because I don't know how these guys are gonna vote. Um, the other interesting quirk about this is, uh, you may- Well, what do you mean maybe?
20:14
You may- You definitely would at 70 to 1. I de- I, yes. Right? If he didn't have the... Yeah. Okay. Yes. I definitely would. You're right. 302 is what he leads the National League batting race with, 302.
20:27
Carl Yastrzemski won it in 1968, the year after he won the Triple Crown, with a.30056, which rounds up to 301. [laughs] A generous round up to 301. So that's the lowest of all time. So this is...
20:42
It's also fascinating from that standpoint. Yeah. Yeah. From a baseball standpoint. Anyway, um, you wanted to bring this up, and I think it's a good one. Jahmyr Gibbs of the Alliance, hamstring injury last night.
20:52
Uh, thing or not a thing? Yeah. We got a- Could be... we got a couple injury things to, uh, go through in the NFL. J.J. McCarthy with right knee soreness after his great pre-season performance. Yep.
21:02
He's not expected to start week one, so not as big of a deal, assuming it's not a big deal. Assuming it's not serious, it's not a big deal. The Gibbs one's one to watch out for. I, I mean this is...
21:11
I mean, it was practice last night. He suffered this kne- uh, uh, hamstring injury they're calling it. Um, I, I saw a couple reporters tweeting out that possible ACL involved. Ugh. Oh, no. So I don't...
21:25
I mean, keep out- keep an eye out for news on that one in the, in the next da- couple days. I mean, that would be a massive, massive injury for a team that a lot of people like in the NFC.
21:34
And then Hassan Redick wants to be traded from the Jets. [laughs] And then in his division, everybody's a- Did you catch all this yesterday? Everybody's asking the Patriots if Matthew Judon is available.
21:42
[laughs] So Re- I mean, Redick's doing the... I, I mean, d- what... He gets traded and doesn't sign with the team, and is now going to hold out. [laughs] Or I don't even, I don't even know what he's gonna do.
21:55
I mean, I don't really... Some of these you don't really believe. It's kind of like Aiyuk, right? Like Brandon Aiyuk's kind of in a similar situation where you're- We're, we're almost a week since.
22:02
You weren't here when I've, I did a whole Brandon Aiyuk thing. Were you here when I did the Brandon Aiyuk thing? No, no, no. Yeah. We're like a week away. I'm more convinced than ever he's staying in San Francisco.
22:09
Well, I love that he keeps going back and forth, but it just, it, it feels like an NBA thing. This doesn't feel like an NFL thing. That's right. It feels like an NBA- Drama...
22:16
I can demand where I'm gonna get traded and it's all gonna work out. And you- And the NFL's like, "It doesn't work that way." It doesn't work that way. You're an NFL player. Yeah. You do not rule the roost. Sorry.
22:26
And, like, it's the... It's not so much the trade, it's the contract on the other side that's the problem. You asked off air does this change your opinion, the Judon thing or the Hassan...
22:35
Or obviously the Judon thing doesn't, but, or the Hassan Redick thing, does it change your opinion of anything? It does not. I still feel the Jets are the cream of the crop, and I still feel
22:44
that only one team is coming out of that division because their schedules are so tough. JBT next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from Bar Canada, The Barrage
22:58
Bar Canada here at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell. Uh, we have a lot to talk about with this gentleman, so, uh, no small talk, Kelly. I know you're urging to have small talk with me.
23:07
It's Jonathan Von Tobel, everybody. He's the co-host of, uh, VSiN. [laughs] Watch that promo coming up. On VS- of VSiN Prime Time, along with Tim Murray, and of course, our senior NBA analyst.
23:19
JBT joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jon? I'm good. It's a busy time. Very excited. Uh, I, I don't know if, uh... I'm gonna, I'm gonna derail you just for a quick moment. Please.
23:28
I've decided to be an EPL guy this year, uh, so very excited to watch what's gonna transpire starting this weekend. That's my new thing now.
23:36
Um, very much looking forward to, uh, everything footy involved, uh, both American and European. So let's go. I enjoy this about you, that you make a conscious, deliberate decision to be about something. Fair.
23:46
And it's the Premier League for you this year. All right, cool. You have any thoughts you want to share? Oh, absolutely not. I'm just excited to watch. [laughs] This is gonna be my first... Yeah, like, I will say this.
23:56
All right. About, like, uh, six years ago or so, I, I was, I was an EPL guy again, or, like, for the first time, and I was... I dedicated myself.
24:03
I actually have, like, two or three Queens Park Rangers shirts somewhere in my closet, uh, the year that they were up, and I think Chaz Austin, uh, was one of their strikers.
24:11
I was gonna be big on QPR, and then I believe they got relegated that year, and then it's go- kind of been downhill ever since. So, uh, I tried, but my team has been eliminated, so I'm waiting. All right.
24:19
I'm gonna fight the good fight, but until then I'm just gonna watch and, and track for the first time, uh, this whole full season. I wanna see what it's all about.
24:25
JBT, our senior NBA analyst, our junior Premier League analyst. There we go. I like that. There you go. I think we'll call him that. Okay, about the NBA.
24:31
Uh, this is a little sports talk radio-ish, but I wanted to get this from you. Um, so you know, I'm in the tank for Steph Curry.
24:38
Even a week ago, before the championship game, this is after the semifinal game, when he, when he dropped 36 against Serbia, I sat here and I said, "Great Steph Curry.
24:46
I'll take great Steph Curry over great anybody else." And to me, he is conservatively one of the 10 greatest players of all time.
24:53
And I was watching yesterday some m- mainstream media show, uh, on Fox actually, and they were talking about how, like, that gold medal solidified his legacy, and I was- my head was gonna explode.
25:04
Um, that was awesome, though, wasn't it? I mean, I don't have- Yes... uh, my, my question is not so much about...
25:10
I mean, do you consider Curry, who won four championships, probably should've won six with the Warriors, could've certainly, uh, and then gets the gold medal, did he need that to solidify it?
25:20
And then how great was this whole thing anyway? Uh, no, he did not need that, and in fact, Ill, I'd take it a step further. I think you can make an argument that Steph Curry is the greatest player of all time. I like it.
25:30
Uh, given his i- you know what I mean? Well, given his impact on the game, right? Like, changing the position, everything that we have seen, his ability to change games i- in an instant.
25:38
I mean, we saw it in that gold medal game. I mean, you're talking about four bombs from three, one of which had two guys in his face. You never really doubted the, the, his impact on winning, his impact on the game.
25:49
I think you can make that argument. He's been absolutely incredible, and of course, you have the championships to boot as well as the gold medal now.
25:54
But I thought it was awesome, and, and as somebody too, like, look, like, I had France to win gold, so I was hoping that they would pull that thing off.
26:00
But I think at the end of the day you get so wrapped up in the moment, which is like, gold medal game, this is it, biggest kind of stars step up in the biggest spots, and there's Steph Curry just doing what he does and having all the fun in the world with it.
26:13
It was hard not to get wrapped up in that.
26:15
But I thought beforehand that you could make the argument he is the greatest basketball player we've seen, given his impact to the game on top of the winning and everything else. He didn't need that gold medal at all.
26:24
This dude has been among his, the best of his peers, and I, you can argue the best at what he's been, especially at this generation. He's been incredible. I'm a big Steph Curry stan.
26:31
You'll, you'll never talk me out of it. Yeah. I, I was screaming at the TV by myself alone in the apartment yesterday, like, "What are you talking about?"
26:37
Uh, everyone over the age of 60 who, uh, saw Wilt play just lost their minds when Championship said that. I mean, that's the problem. Yeah. Like, I don't, I don't wanna defend them, but it's like- Yeah...
26:44
they're, you have so many great players from so many different- That's why I say top 10... eras, that it's, like, almost impossible to compare.
26:51
LeBron, KD, and, and Steph doing that specifically in the semifinals, but all three of them, three of the top 10 players of all time. And you can't talk me- Yeah... off that position. 'Cause they're unicorns.
27:02
E- each one of them is a unicorn. Um, all right, this is a curve ball. Political betting, apolitically speaking, you had a thought. Yeah.
27:09
I, well, I've been fascinated tracking, like, the market, you know, for, for a long time now and just seeing where it's been going, and obviously with the, uh, the change in terms of the potential Democratic nominee and whatnot.
27:19
But, but I thought one of the more interesting markets that, that hasn't really been talked about a lot is we, we talk about who's gonna win outright, right?
27:24
But I thought the popular vote was one of the more interesting ones. I think it's seven out of the last eight years the Democratic Party has won the popular vote, and I thought it was really cheap when we started.
27:32
I mean, we were talking about, Gil, I, I was tracking it at, like, minus 200-ish.
27:35
And it took a while, even as the, the, the, Harris started to move, right, in terms of the odds to win this thing, the popular vote remained pretty static at, at minus, like, 250, minus 270.
27:45
We've seen in the last few weeks that thing really escalate up to minus 500.
27:49
But I thought that was kind of the underrated part about this, 'cause in betting we talk about all the time is, like, hey, value, and a lot of people think it's gotta have a plus price next to it.
27:56
But I thought when we were looking at really cheap prices of, like, minus 250 on that popular vote, I was surprised that it took as long as it did to snap back, and here we are now at minus 500.
28:03
But it's been something I've been fascinated by throughout this entire time. Yeah. 2000, uh, Bush beats Gore not winning- Yep...
28:10
the popular vote, and then Trump beats Clinton not winning the popular vote, if I have that correct. Those are the two modern-day, um, quirks in that electoral college versus the popular vote. Okay. Yep.
28:23
Uh, our guides are out, pro football, college football, college football guide and pro. Uh, become a VSiN Pro subscriber today. Unlimited access to our betting guides and everything else we do. Early bird price, $175.
28:35
Full VSiN access through the Super Bowl. And JBT, you were integral to this. Uh, you focused on the Big 12. We're gonna have Futac talk about the Big 12 a little later on the show.
28:44
You also, of course, right, right in your wheelhouse, your bread and butter, talked Mountain West, or wrote about the Mountain West more accurately. Yeah.
28:50
And what is your big sort of macro statement from that conference? So I think that the big statement would be that I do understand the love for Boise State in the Mountain West, right?
29:00
I mean, they are the odds-on favorite to win this thing. They are a lot of popular selections to make it to the college football playoff as the, uh, you know, Group of 5 bid because of everything they got back, right?
29:09
Their entire starting defense, they've got a five-star transfer in Malachi Nelson. He actually might not win the job. But, and you have obviously one of the best players in the country in Ashton Jeanty.
29:18
But for me, I don't think minus 110 is a fair representative of the rest of the conference behind them. Because Fresno State has the best quarterback in the conference in Mikey Keene.
29:27
UNLV has a ton of returning production from a team that was one of the best ATS squads in the country last season, and was second runner-up to Boise State last year in the Mountain West.
29:36
Uh, the team that I ended up landing on, I, I bet too, I bet UNLV at 8 to 1 at Circle when that was available. That's gone right now. But Wyoming at 14 to 1 is still a, a perfectly playable number for me.
29:46
Uh, you do have Bohl leaving, right? Craig Bohl is gone at head coach. But you have Jay Sawvel coming in. He's been the defense coordinator for the last three years.
29:53
You got about six guys coming back on this defensive unit, a lot of them up front, so you're gonna have a lot of continuity there. And on offense, entirety of the offensive line's back, Gil.
30:01
Your top three rushers are back, and a quarterback that you really believe in, Evans Svoboda, who does kind of, uh, is reminiscent of Josh Allen, right? 6-foot 5, 240. Where's number 17?
30:10
But I think overall when you look at them, the ability to play the big boys at home, Fresno State, uh, excuse me, uh, Boise State has to go out to Wyoming late in the season. It's a very strong home field advantage.
30:20
I thought looking elsewhere other than Boise State in this conference was the way to go, and I landed on UNLV Wyoming, but at current prices I still think Wyoming at 14 to 1 is playable by my measure to win the Mountain West.
30:31
Some late night Saturday mustard uniform viewing, uh, through the years- Yeah... on Wyoming, on the Cowboys. 14 to one to win the Mountain West.
30:38
Check out all of JBT's stuff and all of our stuff in the College Football Betting Guide. All right, uh, we flashed up August wins in Major League Baseball a bit earlier. You have a play.
30:48
Who are you, uh, who's your money on? So I got the Twins at 20 to one. Uh, and I think it moved a little bit off of that, but, and they got off to a good start. They, they were- Yeah...
30:55
up there and tied with the lead with six wins, and they took the first two from Cleveland, and then over the weekend they lost the last two of that four-game set. Uh, got a win yesterday, but I, I like this Twins team.
31:03
The schedule, like, it gets a little dicey in the middle, but the front end and the back end of the schedule set up really nicely for them.
31:08
And given the way that this lineup has been performing, thought it was worth it to go at 20 to one.
31:12
And the market kind of agreed with me a little bit in terms of the way that it moved, but I, I, I need a little bit more here.
31:17
Was hoping they'd get, like, at least three out of the four against Cleveland, but think it's a winnable series, and that's kind of all you need. You just need to get these series.
31:23
But I really wish the Diamondbacks or the Padres would chill out for a second- [laughs] That's right... because, uh, those two teams would not, will not stop at all. They will not stop.
31:30
I said earlier, they will not lose a baseball game anymore, apparently.
31:33
Uh, and, uh, good on you that I got to the, to the Mets, we were talking about this off air, that I got to the Mets before you did, because the Mets are four and six. Not a good start, so good to have the Twins. Yeah.
31:44
I, I was surprised though, 20 to one. I was like, "Wow, that's, that's-" Oh... that's one of those where you, like, go to open it up, and then all of a sudden it was already at, like, seven.
31:50
I think when I saw it, it was, like, 770. I was like, "All right, well, I missed out on that one." I saw nine to one at William Hill circa, I was like, "Hmm, pretty good."
31:56
And then my eyes bugged out of my head at, at 20 to one, and then they go ahead and, you know, get off to this start, four and six. Right. By the way, we, we didn't take it down all the way to the bottom.
32:06
The Diamondbacks are five and O in one-run games. Yep. The Pittsburgh Pirates are at the bottom of this month. They are one and nine, and are O and six in one-run games. [laughs] Oh my gosh.
32:17
Two against each other, by the way. That's brutal. Diamondbacks and Pirates. Sometimes it just comes down to that. Any baseball today, John? Yeah, I put a small bet on the, uh, I've got the Dodgers here.
32:26
Uh, I know Stone's gonna get the start for them. I, I think with Mookie Betts now back, uh, this lineup does look a little different.
32:31
Mookie Betts obviously looked a lot better yesterday coming back in and, uh, going yard, driving in another run. I think this lineup is now a lot more potent. We saw the market kind of get a little watered down.
32:39
We saw this open minus 117, we're up to minus 130. I, I think anything under minus 130 is still playable, but we're kind of getting to the point where, uh, you, you kind of want to tap out there.
32:47
But the Dodgers there, and then I'm still waiting, I actually haven't checked, I got a little busy, but I wanted to see what the team total market was gonna look like for Seattle. They're taking on Tarik Skubal.
32:55
We know that Julio Rodriguez came back on Sunday, but he went O for five for five strikeouts. I still don't really believe in this lineup, and I think Skubal will be able to hold them down.
33:02
So was looking at a team total in the first five for the Seattle Mariners to see where the market was gonna be when multiple shops open up.
33:08
But for sure, got the Dodgers, uh, in the cart as well, and then my, uh, we'll probably go back to the Braves. Want to see what the market does. I know Circa had them slightly favored, other places are at pick.
33:17
How dare you? Cl- closing the segment with a Braves thought over the Giants. [laughs] Uh, you winning this thing against Dustin? Good getting it in. You winning the, uh, weight loss challenge against Dustin, yes or no?
33:27
Yes, yes. Yes. There it is. That's all you need to know. Boom. Jonathan Vontobel. Thank you, JBT, appreciate it. Good to see you guys. @meJBT, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
33:36
Uh, who's gonna start week one in the NFL? Worth another gander. We'll do that next. It's a numbers game at VS, the Sports Betting Network. A numbers game on VSIN, the Sports Betting Network.
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So head over to winnerscircleproxy.com now and book your appointment. Again, that's winnerscircleproxy.com, VSIN's preferred proxy partner. How you doing? You okay, man? You good? Oh, yeah. I'm good.
34:47
I'm just- Just making sure... I'm, I'm laughing at the, uh... I'm gonna st- I'm gonna steal We Get Tweets From You and m- and get Kelly Gets Press Releases, and, and it's just com- Kelly Gets Press Releases...
34:55
it's comical.
34:56
The, the two I've gotten this morning, "Swingers Las Vegas to open crazy golf hospitality experience at Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino coming November 8th," and then, "Daytona Lagoon hosts two-night rooftop concert featuring Jordan Raynor."
35:11
I don't know who Jordan Raynor is, and I'm assuming we're talking Daytona, Florida. Get, get back to that swingers thing. What was that now?
35:16
Uh, yeah, it looks like some little, uh, like, putt-putt thing's coming to Mandalay. Oh. Yeah. The way you read it made it seem like it was for swingers. Oh, yeah, and I thought, when I first read it, I read- Oh...
35:25
Crazy Horse, not Crazy Golf Experience, so that was a little different too. We get tweets at Beating The Book, best listeners in the game.
35:31
Primetime accusing, uh, producer number five and eight, Jeff Parls, the Grover Cleveland of producers, of, uh, voicing a, uh, ad. Jeff Parls chimes in, "Not me."
35:40
[laughs] Je- Jeff wanted no part of identification with it. Uh, Forrest Leeman. Oh, Forrest, this is good. Uh, "If Ohtani is a landslide this year, shouldn't he open minus 1,000 next year pitching?" Yeah.
35:54
It's a great point. Sure. It's a great point. Uh, Frank Doyle, "Ozuna Triple Crown number at, uh, BetMGM Colorado." Oh, this is good. Mm-hmm. Thank you for this, Frank.
36:04
Uh, Sh- Shohei is eight to one to win the Triple Crown, Ozuna 13 to one. They do have no prices as well. The no on Shohei's minus 1,400, the no on Ozuna minus 3,000.
36:17
Uh, this is from, oh, DGen Southern Gen, who says, "Yeah, with Ozuna it's not only the domestic violence, it's also the DUI incident." You're right.
36:24
Um, "And in case you missed it about Snell and rehab starts this season, Snell threw five no-hit innings with, uh, 10 K's for AAA Sacramento on May 17th, and four perfect innings with seven K's for Single A San Jose on May 12th."
36:37
And that's what Bob Melvin was saying. Bob Melvin, who witnessed front row again from the dugout step, um- You know, his Cy Young wi- his, his Cy Young season, he's like, "This is, this is better."
36:48
He's, every time he goes out there, you think he's gonna throw a no-hitter. It's always like that.
36:52
The, the, when you gotta go ba- you know, back to the minors or on a rehab start or something like that, it, you usually tend to feel bad for those guys.
36:59
But I always think about stuff like that where you're like, it's gotta be such a relief sometimes to be like, let me just, uh, let me just throw, throw some fastballs by these, uh, AAA guys, uh, these bums down here in the minors.
37:10
That'll, that'll get you back in form. This is from my NC95 Gambler. If you have Jason on your show later. Is Jason on today? He is on today. He is on today. Oh, NCI95 Gambler. Can I call you, can I call you that?
37:24
Um, I don't even have to. Th- this is a, this is a request that, that already was gonna make itself.
37:29
You said, "If you have Jason on your show later, uh, can you please ask him about NL Rookie of the Year, in specific about Jackson Merrill's chances of winning? Thanks."
37:37
Uh, not only was I gonna ask that, Jason has been text bombing me about this for the last few days because he has a j- he came on the show and talked about- Yeah... Jackson Merrill.
37:46
While we have been pondering, not just us, but everybody has had their eyes on, hey, can Paul Skeens win NL Cy Young? Which I have repeatedly said, again, according to the Tom Tango numbers, he's got no shot whatsoever.
37:58
He would've had to have been pristine the rest of the way to even have a, a, a chance in that conversation. He has not been.
38:05
And so Skeens is not gonna win the NL Cy Young, and then Chris Sale might have just, you know, shouted that out for, for real after his performance last night just to, uh, to butchers that.
38:15
But we thought it was a done deal that he was gonna win NL Rookie of the Year, and maybe he will. But he has gone from a minus 2,000 favorite, something like that- Oh my gosh. This-...
38:26
to a minus 450, and even in some spots, a minus 400 favorite, which again, still a big favorite, but not what he was. And Jackson Merrill is down to plus 250.
38:36
Now the reason that Jason has been going crazy, not only because he, he recommended it, he has bets.
38:41
Jackson Merrill had like, was it three nights in a row where he tied up games for the Padres in the eighth or ninth innings with homers? So I mean, he has just, just been doing it in dramatic fashion.
38:53
Um, and so Jason has been texting me over and over about how he doesn't feel like Skeens should win even the Rookie of the Year. Obviously, he's talking through his bet, but that's, it's, it's a big deal.
39:06
We'll ask Jason about it later. Yeah, I thought I saw, I thought I saw Skeens at minus 900 this morning. Maybe more. And down [laughs] to minus 450. Right. I'm pretty sure that's what I saw. Maybe it was last night.
39:14
Stephen at Brosek 1870, two Mondays in a row, two different Mikes swing on my Illini with an under bet. What bad starts to my week? It was Montesano this week. Who was it last week? I can't remember.
39:23
[laughs] Oh, that's good. Mike Stacks, I heard you say yesterday McDonald's is leaving Circle. With all the pull you have, can you please tell Derek to also close the coffee shop upstairs and bring your sushi place in?
39:34
Okay, I'll be sure to get on that with Derek. Derek, 10 hours in his office plotting the demise of the, of McDonald's. Wow. Mike Stacks. Oh. From Delray Beach, Florida. Man, I was down there last week. Oh, Delray.
39:44
It's changed. It's changing on me, Gil. It's changing. To the good? It's get- it's getting too fancy. It's getting too Boca Raton. Oh, Delray, Delray is very fancy. It, it's getting too Bo- Boca Raton-ized, okay?
39:53
Like it's, it's... All my old like crappy dive bars are gone and stuff like that, and I, I don't, I don't like it. I don't like the changes. How dare you talk about Del Boca Vista. Yeah. Uh, this is from Jason Stark.
40:04
Not that Jason Stark, but another one. Is JBT so desperate to win the weight loss contest that he had to shave his head too? [laughs] Hey, anything helps, right? Hey, man. That's absolutely right. When is it?
40:14
That final weigh-in's gotta be coming up here, right? It's coming up. Wasn't it right before, right before NFL season? And, uh, you know, they bring up the sushi spot. I was waiting for your return. Oh, yeah.
40:21
Wait, oh, you... Oh, I see what you're doing now. You're, you keep pushing it back. I thought it was supposed to be last week.
40:26
No, no, no, I thought it w- I th- it was supposed to be last week, but I thought it would've been disrespectful. You were the one who kind of made this a thing. Oh, man. Well, we gotta set the date then for that.
40:33
We gotta s- we gotta set it this w- this month. It has to be like at the end of next week, let's say. This month? Let's say- He keeps, he keeps pushing it back. I don't know. It's August. I said the end of next...
40:41
Well, let's just make it a date. Okay. It's August 13th today. Yeah. Let's say Friday of next week. Friday of next week. So what is that? It's a, it's a good idea. What is that?
40:49
[laughs] It's a good i- you're gonna con people into listening on a Friday, and it's a good job. I like it. That's what I do. 23rd of August, bam. Sushi announcement. 23rd of August. All right. It's coming, folks.
40:59
Um, you have five tennis bets. I gave you a baseball bet on the, uh, Diamondbacks' number one seed. I don't know if I'll have a bet in this category, quite frankly. Uh, but this is week one starting quarterback odds.
41:09
These are available where? DraftKings has these? Oh, we're all over the place today, Gil, 'cause I, I'm using multiple books here. Oh, okay.
41:15
This is FanDuel and DraftKings because, uh, some have only a couple listed, some have, uh, the others listed. Okay. So yeah. Um, I don't... I, I mean, I think these are all kind of accurate.
41:24
The Broncos after Bo Nix's great performance the other night. Bo Nix minus 245. Jarrett Stidham is plus 186. Zach Wilson is 70 to 1.
41:32
Zach Wilson would have to have two injuries happen in front of him, uh, for that 70 to 1 to cash. That sure feels like it. Oh, yeah. He's, he is way down on the depth chart.
41:40
My, my only question with this one is, do you feel like we've... Like, I think it's probably accurate, but man, that's a big swing towards Nix- Yeah, it could be closer... after one week.
41:48
Yeah, it could be closer than that, but, uh, but he's the favorite, I think. Um, we'll skip the Raiders for our purposes right now. Russell Wilson's minus 520. Justin Fields did not look good. I mean, that's like...
41:58
Y- you could have made an argument before that game- Yes...
42:00
that like, hey, at plus money with Russell Wilson not, like, not even been able to, you know, really practice going through an injury, just the possibility that he... Like, this is one, this is one we're...
42:11
You know, we've gotten used to talking about these markets, Gil, right? But worth the reminder, the read the fine print, right? This is just week one starter. Doesn't matter who's starting week two.
42:21
Week one, first snap is what it means. Right, first snap. Yes, first snap, so. First snap.
42:26
I mean, like, if Russell Wilson, for whatever reason, can't play week one, maybe they still wanna play him week two or get him back ASAP. Right. But- But if they're both healthy and this is done
42:35
right this moment- With Wilson, yeah... Justin Fields is plus 350, Russell Wilson minus 520. For those who missed it, Steelers lost to the Texans week one of preseason 20 to 12.
42:44
Fields was five of six for 67 yards, but he was sacked twice, and he had two fumbles on snaps from the center, so there you go. Yeah, it's, it's not great. Vintage Justin Fields. [laughs] Vintage.
42:56
Uh, Patriots, Jacoby Brissetts, $9 favorite. Drake May barely got any action, plus 550.
43:01
And then the, uh, even though Sam Howell played pretty well for the Seahawks in, in week one of the preseason, Geno Smith still an $8 favorite for the Seahawks to take the first snap week one.
43:09
Man, if I, if I like knew, if I, if I knew, someone told me Geno Smith was not gonna be injured between now and, and when the first game occurs- Someone told you that?
43:19
I, I, I feel like I'd be running to l- to lay even minus 800. We'll see if we can get anybody to tell you that. Yeah, that'd be nice. So, so let me- Anybody want to tell you that?
43:26
But while you're at that, let me know about every other significant injury- Yeah... in the NFL this year. That'd be helpful. And then the one I skipped for a purpose is a, is a literal coin flip here.
43:36
Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew. What book is this? They have them both at minus- This is Fan- FanDuel. DraftKings does have this up as well. O'Connell l- slightly bigger favorite there, I think minus 10- 130 there.
43:47
All right. So FanDuel has it minus 113 and minus 113. And Antonio Pierce, won't you be my neighbor? He has said they will announce it after week two. Yep. After this game. I have no idea.
44:00
So does it come down to this game's performance? Is that what this is about? Man, I would think if he said that, then they already know, but I don't know. Here's what- I would've said Gardner Minshew before last week...
44:12
here's what I'm gonna do, 'cause I don't have the, uh, courage to ask Antonio myself. I'm gonna ask Delicious to ask Antonio, and then maybe Delicious will tell me. That's a smart move.
44:20
Yeah, that's how we're gonna do it. Right now I have no insight. Or the valet guy, just, you know, yeah. Valet guy, just ask about all kinds of other stuff. Welcome back. Pete Buttigieg on the Big 12 next.
44:29
It's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network.
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