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Aug 13, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 13, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 13, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate it. However you're taking us in, doesn't matter which way, we love you for it.
0:20
Great, we, we're super grateful. By the way, uh, Matt Boekhouder was on last week, Kelly, from Toronto, and he, he gets- No, you said, "I missed that." He gets jacked up to be on the show, you know, you know why?
0:29
Because GamePlus is on where he, where he is in Toronto. He sees us every day, and he's like, "I go, how often do I get to be on TV?" Oh, great. So he's, he's pumped about it. Shout out to the GamePlus viewers.
0:40
We got, we, we get a few- Oh, yeah... that stop by every once in a while and, uh, let us know. They love you, GamePlus. Yeah.
0:43
And GamePlus goes down into New York as well, so a lot of people in New York see us on GamePlus also, so, um- I think I've heard that, and then I think I've heard, uh, down into, like, Seattle- Vancouver...
0:53
yeah, like, Columbia... British Columbia. Yeah. Yeah. Man, GamePlus, we're all about you. We're all about the other spots, too. Uh, coming up this hour, Paul Sporer on baseball, Paul Carr on the Premier League.
1:04
Can't wait for that. And Jason Weingarten, the aforementioned Jason Weingarten from under a cloud of smoke, he's gonna be Jackson Merrelling it for about 10 minutes. He's gonna be like, "See? Here's..."
1:13
He- J- Jason Weingarten on why- This is wild... Paul Skeens does not deserve to win the Rookie of the Year. Could be a thing.
1:19
Uh, Pete Fiutak joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line to talk some college football with us from the heartland.
1:26
Peter @petefiutak, F-I-U-T-A-K, on Twitter, and of course, he is the emperor, the czar of CollegeFootballNews.com. What's happening, Pedro?
1:35
Speaking of, uh, being jacked of, you know, where this show goes and everything, how about the local aspect of this?
1:41
'Cause every once in a while I get someone like, "I was sitting in Vegas, I was having a mimosa, and all of a sudden I look up and there's Fiutak's dumb face on this big screen on VSiN out there."
1:50
[laughs] And I'm like, it like, it ruined my day. So, uh, so I like, I like that aspect to it, too. A little underrated aspect to your show there. Well, you know what you should do to counterbalance that?
1:59
You should have a Flavortown poster on the wall behind you. I think that would be- I know... Oh, wait. Look at that. I could totally make that. Oh! How did that happen? Yeah. Can I have posters on the wall?
2:06
I, I didn't see that coming. Hey, before you give your Big 12 thoughts and any bets, uh, AP preseason top 25 out yesterday. Did anything, did anything bother you? No, nothing bothered me.
2:18
It's like there's no, no Group of 5... I know I'm a, I'm, you know, the anti-elitist here when you, you always say, but there are no, uh, Group of 5 programs out there in either the AP or the coaches poll.
2:29
That's gonna change, like a Boise State and a Memphis is gonna get there. The same exact teams, uh, were in both major polls, just a little bit of a twist everywhere around.
2:37
Little bit of a Michigan, uh, downplay, a little punishment there, 'cause the people are angry in the AP polls about Michigan. They should be a little bit higher, but nothing to get into a twist over.
2:46
It's, uh, pretty basic. Uh, the only thing is, like, Notre Dame at seven, they, they could probably lose to Texas A&M in week one, and that'll change quickly.
2:53
But again, college football playoff rankings are the ones of record. This is just sort of a snapshot. To me, this is kind of the, uh, the official start of college football season when the AP comes out with this thing.
3:02
Yeah, I'm, I'm looking, I was looking at h- who, Big 10 and SEC... Oh, I guess, no, I was gonna say all the way up until the 10th spot is all Big 10 and SEC. Yeah. But I guess Notre Dame is in there as well.
3:13
Well, Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC. That's right. So they're obviously- Yeah. Yeah... right So there's the exception. Okay. Uh, Big 12. Utah, the short shot. Do you see it that way? Justify it. Yeah, definitely.
3:24
They, yeah, they get everyone back. Cam Rising's back at quarterback. Last year's team was a little bit, um, off. They were injured, wasn't quite the same.
3:32
They couldn't get the quarterback situation right, couldn't get their running game quite right. This year they're back and loaded. The running game is gonna be awesome. The lines are fantastic.
3:40
The schedule works out really nicely. Uh, the crazy part about Utah i- and th- the Big 12 champion this year is I think they're probably gonna be the three seed.
3:48
It doesn't mean they're gonna be ranked in the top three in the final college football playoff rankings, but it's the top four ranked, uh, conference champs.
3:56
So the, the Big 12 conference champ's probably gonna be ranked seventh or eigh- eighth-ish, but I think, uh, there'll be a problem with Notre Dame beating, uh, uh, Florida State, and Notre Dame's can't get into what, the top four, so we'll get into that another time, but so you might have the three seed coming from this bunch, and Utah's definitely the best team of the bunch.
4:14
Yeah, and Utah, you point out at CollegeFootballNews.com, if I, if I recall correctly, they would've been in an expanded 12 team playoff three of the last five years, and one of those years they wouldn't have been was the pandemic year anyway.
4:26
Yeah. Um, so this is kind of, uh, where they, where they should be housed anyway. And their schedule, man oh man. So Arizona State, Colorado, Houston, UCF are on the road.
4:38
Lot, lot of, lot of teams on there didn't go bowling last year. Yeah. So it, uh, i- it's a... You know, uh, Arizona's tough. Oklahoma State's kind of p- probably be a loss. I think Arizona State's gonna be better.
4:48
But overall, you know, with not just Utah, but this conference, unlike all the other c- main conferences, th- where's your true lightweight? Is Colorado your worst team in the conference? Probably.
4:59
I mean, TCU's a lot better, Baylor's a lot better. Cincinnati got better, uh, through the transfer portal this off-season. Houston upgraded a coach, and they're a little bit better.
5:08
So, uh, it's certainly not talent-wise, uh, the Big 10 or the SEC, but from top to bottom, there's not a game on anybody's schedule that you're gonna say, "You know what?
5:18
I'm totally stunned that Utah, the best team in the league, lost to Colorado." You're not gonna be, you know, floored by that.
5:25
You're not gonna be crazy if they lose the rivalry game to BYU, and that's gonna kind of go for every team, which in some ways is gonna make for a fun league.
5:32
The problem is you're gonna g- you gotta get to 10 and 2 basically to get in the expanded college football playoff, and you got a lot of 9 and 3 schedules this year. All right.
5:39
But you would bet them plus 320 Utah to win the conference? Yeah, they're, they're definitely the f- It's, Utah, Oklahoma State, uh, Kansas State's certainly good. Arizona didn't, Arizona didn't really lose anybody.
5:51
It's kind of been the underappreciated aspect of this is, uh, w- with the coaching, coaching change, Brent Brennan's great. Uh, a good old, uh, donor came in and did the...
6:00
You know, now it's pro- That is how, how this works. Big old donor said, "You know what? We're keeping everyone around."
6:05
So if you notice some programs and coaching changes, like, you know, Indiana getting all the James Madison players and stuff like that, you didn't see a lot of, uh, Arizona players go with Jedd Fisch to Washington because they were able to pay to keep them around.
6:18
For all the Kansas State folks listening out there though, who have got to be thrilled not only that Oklahoma is gone, but especially that Texas is gone- Yeah... 'cause Texas just had ownage over them.
6:27
You don't, you don't f- find that that's a f- a good bet at plus 380? Oh. [coughs] Definitely. They're, they're definitely in that mix. So, uh, again, they're right there at the top. I think Utah's at the top.
6:37
[coughs] Excuse me. Oklahoma State, um, again, then Arizona, but definitely Kansas State. I mean, they've got a dynamic backfield.
6:45
They've got some young players in there who can move, and it's, again, Kansas State, so they could, uh, really mo- [coughs] Excuse me. Oh, man. My God, Pete, Pete- Take a sip, Pete... medic. Medic.
6:56
We could, we could- P- Pete State. Pete should get you some water... Gil and I could fam for minutes on Kansas State, that's for sure. [laughs] Well, Ka- Sorry. Is Will Howard still there?
7:03
Oh, poor- [laughs] Poor, poor Pedro. You okay, man? You all right? I don't know. Pe- Pete, here's the deal. Here's the, here's the deal though. I'm good. I'm good.
7:10
I need you, I need you to make one value play to win the championship of the Big 12. What's the best price to win the conference? Uh, I would probably say Kansas State, among the ones- Okay...
7:20
the teams that are really right there in there. But, but here's the thing. Again, you're not totally insane to try to, to like any team in this conference to get there. So again, it's a really even league.
7:29
I mean, Baylor's gonna be back and loaded this year. I mean, we've kind of forgotten about some of these teams. Like TCU is only two years removed from, uh, playing for the national championship.
7:39
They're, they've got their groove back. They, they're not gonna be as good as they were two years ago, but they're really good again.
7:45
So if you wanna talk, like, crazy value play, if you're a big fan of one of these Big 12 teams who was outside of the, the teams we talked about, you're not absolutely insane.
7:55
I mean, you know, again, I, I don't think Colorado's gonna do anything, but West Virginia's really good.
8:00
Kansas, they don't have a true home game 'cause they're playing all their home games in Kansas City this year, but they're really good. Uh, Texas Tech's kind of a sleeper team.
8:08
So if you're talking va- the best value play on what you're showing up there, I would say TCU at 18 to 1. Hm. Because they're pr- I mean, again, I don't think they're gonna win, but value-wise, yeah, they're pretty good.
8:18
I'm trying to steer, steer Pete here. Not Iowa State at plus 950? You don't like Iowa State? Um, they've never really done it before. Um, and, but they're good. But again, they're a good piece of a whole pack.
8:30
In terms of winning the conference though, I think they're missing just a little bit. But they're, they're definitely good.
8:36
They're gonna definitely go to a bowl, and they're gonna be one of those teams that's gonna be a tough out each and every week. Since you bring up Colorado. Hm.
8:43
Obviously, this was the team that captured the nation's attention, um, for the first three weeks anyway of last season. Um, Deion, not, Coach, Coach Sanders not doing himself any favors with his press conferences. No.
8:59
Uh, it's just get- I mean, it's just turning. And, and for the, you know... I, I guess, like, the question being the, the season win total's five and a half. Let's start there. Do you see that going over or under?
9:09
And then just- I love- And then just off the field, public sentiment-wise, w- just w- how do you see this going for Deion this year? Yeah, not great.
9:17
I mean, badly because first of all, Deion Sanders is probably my favorite ath- one of my favorite athletes next to Michael Jordan of all time. He's my, uh, huge Prime fan. Uh, but under.
9:26
I mean, and, and I hope he proves me wrong, but look at their schedule. Yeah. I mean, and here's the crazy p- here's the tho- thing about this.
9:33
If this was a normal team, if you just had Coach Jones or any, could name it, you know, just a random coach and it wasn't Coach Prime, Colorado was awful in 2022.
9:44
And they went from, and, um, one win I think it was to now four wins. A lot of it's that they were in a lot of games, a lot, couple could've gone here or there. They could have been bowling.
9:53
He did make a big improvement in, in year one. It, it's, you, that would've been the narrative for any other program. You'd say, "Hey, look, that was a stepping stone year. You had to rebuild a lot.
10:02
And all of a sudden, hey, they made an improvement. Now let's, let's see if they can go from four wins to six and just kind of make that progression up." But because it was someone like, "Oh, we coming.
10:10
We're here," and, like, everyone's expecting national championships and stuff. The problem is, a- again, huge fan of Coach Prime, this is all frosting and no cake. You can't just transfer portal your way to win.
10:23
You've gotta, you've gotta get the lines. You've gotta build them up. You've gotta get a lot of good recruiting classes, and they just haven't done that yet.
10:29
So if they could just kind of, you know, take their time and relax and realize this is a process and you can't just fix it all right away, but that's not really how Deion Sanders seems to work.
10:38
Can't, that offensive line can't be any worse, that's for sure. What's your favorite season win total from the conference? Ooh. Favorite season win total? Uh, let's go with Baylor, uh, over the f- five and a half.
10:47
Uh, they're a whole lot better this year. Uh, and that goes for just about, again, it goes to just about everybody but Colorado in this.
10:52
Like, they're, the overs are gonna be k- If you're getting under six on any of these Big 12 teams and you're a fan of them, the over's not a horrible play because just about everyone's good enough to get to at least six wins.
11:02
But again, Colorado's kind of my team of the under, because if you look at that schedule, find me the sure thing win, including North Dakota State to open the season. All right. And last thing, five seconds.
11:11
If, if someone wins the Heisman from this conference, is it Cam Rising? I, I guess it would have to be. It's gonna be tough.
11:17
I mean, Ollie Gordon, the running back from Oklahoma State, but running backs don't win it anymore. So it, it's gonna have to be a statistical superstar, or Shedeur Sanders if Colorado does show up.
11:25
It's only gonna be 'cause Shedeur Sanders is gonna throw for 5,000 yards. There is Shedeur looming. Pete, uh, drink some water. Appreciate it, man. Exactly. I'll be better next time. Later, guys. Pay for UTech.
11:35
Uh, don't forget our college football betting guide is out. Check it out. Um, early bird special, access through the Super Bowl for $175. Check it out at vsyn.com. We're coming back with Jason Weingarten next.
11:49
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at the D. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Fidlin.
12:06
Kelly making signs to me off air. [laughs] What are you, what are you trying to signal? Oh, God. What, what's your story? Yeah. We just lost Jason, like, last we- Oh... or last second before. [laughs] Oh.
12:14
I was like- Oh, I got-... "Don't go to Jason." Oh, no, no, I got stuff to say. Believe me. Um- We're at Bar Canada here at the D, downtown Las Vegas. We get tweets. We always keep it real with you. Yeah.
12:23
We always keep it real with you. We the book. If nothing, we are. Yeah. We're certainly not pretentious about stuff. Yeah.
12:28
Uh, this is from Kevin Clonebone, "Gil, if you haven't, uh, talked, uh, about the sushi spot yet, when you do can you request they add a Gil special to the menu for a few months?
12:37
I'd like the full Gil experience when I fly into Vegas just for this. My wife has been waiting for this information for two years." Oh, that's a good point. We do need a... We do need dish recommendations as well.
12:48
Bro, just sashimi and nigiri your way through that place. Okay. All right. Uh, Trust the Glove, "It has become my hope to someday stay at the D so I can wander aimlessly in shorts looking lost behind The Voice."
13:02
[laughs] He's talking about these guys back here. Uh, this is from George Daley talking about, uh, first snaps, first week of the season. "Josh Allen's rookie season I got a good number on it.
13:11
Uh, Nate Peterman," he calls him Nate, J. Peterman, get it? [laughs] "To take the first snap. First play of the first Bill's game, direct snap to LeSean McCoy. Peterman took the next few snaps, but was later benched."
13:22
Ah, it sucks. I, I, the, you take away my injury note. Another thing that could happen. Yes. It can't always happen. Got a little Wildcat in there. [laughs] I have a...
13:32
If feel like Johnny Avello or one of these guys, you just gotta be laughing your ass off when that happens. Oh, yeah. Right?
13:37
[laughs] Eric Berg, um, "Gil keeps pushing his sushi spot back so he gets at least three more meals in. You gonna save it for summer 2025 content at this point?" There we go, Eric. [laughs] There's Eric.
13:48
Kelly's still waiting- No-... on eggnog round two, by the way. He, he wants... Let me just say this- Oh, now I got lumped in too. Hey, it's coming next Friday, okay? Let me just, let me just say this, Eric.
13:56
I pushed it back because out of, out of complete respect for Kelly Bidlin, and now he has viciously- [laughs]... turned this against me. I, I- As if I am just delaying this on purpose.
14:06
You know, just for that, you know what I'm gonna say to Kelly? Pronounced arm swing complex. [laughs] There you go. That'll, that'll keep him busy for a couple weeks. It's gonna be in my head for six months.
14:14
[laughs] Richard Palma, uh, "Oh, this begins the official Jackson Merrill Rookie of the Year campaign. It will commence today on the Numbers Game with lead speaker Jason. I bought my Merrill gold coins and sneakers.
14:26
Fight, fight, fight." Ladies and gentlemen, that's a perfect intro for Jason Weigard from under a cloud of smoke courtesy of the Progressive guest line somewhere in Southern Cali.
14:33
You can follow him on Twitter at spreadepedia. What's happening, Jason? Not much. How's it going? Uh, what about that? What about the Jackson Merrill stump speech? What do you got for NL Rookie of the Year?
14:46
Well, the Jackson Merrill Rookie of the Year campaign started on opening day when he was named the center fielder for the San Diego Padres. Um, he's, he's been up since day one.
14:55
You saw last night, he had the, uh, you know, the nice catch for the final out. You saw this weekend he had the home runs to take the lead in the ninth inning. Um, he's been doing all the stuff since day one.
15:07
It's just sort of the, the media, the m- the narrative, the market has not necessarily been paying attention. Because Paul Skeens, um, is doing some good stuff, some great stuff. He's a great pitcher.
15:19
There's, uh, nobody saying he's not, especially not me. But matter of fact is his entire body of work so far is 92 innings. We had a guy with minus 4,500 to win an award with a total body of work of 92 innings.
15:35
I mean, the narrative is wrong. The, the market is wrong. Uh, we could talk about that if you want. Well, I'm, I'm curious about that because, and again, this comes...
15:43
when it comes to awards, again, here's the, here's the disclaimer, none of us really knows, right?
15:50
None of us- But we have, we have the historical, you know, previous votes that show when pitchers, you know, are, are faced... Similar pitchers have not won the award with similar lines.
16:01
So unless you think Paul Skeens is that big of a PR guy and his girlfriend is that big of a deal that they're just gonna vote for him 'cause he's Paul Skeens, which I don't. Well.
16:12
Um, you know, the market- Ke- Kel- Kelly, Kelly and I are kind of going, "Well, okay." Eh, maybe. Yeah. Kind of a thing. Yeah. Kind of a thing.
16:17
[laughs] This isn't, this isn't like the, the, the NFL, you know, awards or Comeback Player of the Year. MLB voters, you know, at least are slightly more serious. Slightly.
16:28
Well, okay, he's gonna have more than 92 innings, right? Okay. So it's not gonna s- How many? Well, I don't know. That's the thing. But just finishing my thought from before.
16:36
Because it's awards, we never really know, right? We never really know what folks are thinking who have these votes.
16:42
Again, I'll use the, the year that, uh, my, my San Francisco story where my buddy said, "Hey, Brandon Crawford's MVP, right?" Right? He's not a bettor, he's just a fan.
16:50
And we never mentioned Brandon Crawford, and b- Brandon Crawford finished fourth, and he was 100 to 1, right? So it's like, okay, that's just an example of we don't really... We have...
17:00
We're too close to the sun is better sometimes, and so we don't really know what, what e- what everybody's thinking.
17:04
That said, I just wanna sort of just back off for a second and say, okay, just taking our betting h- hats off, and if you're thinking about perception and the general narrative that you're aware of, even when you're not actively seeking baseball information, Skeens is a thing, right?
17:25
So do you really believe, as great as J- and Jackson Merrill has been awesome, and you're right, those three games in a row where he had the dramatic home runs late that were, were super consequential to those outcomes for the Padres.
17:36
But do you really think they'll shut Skeens out if he gets to, let's pick a number, 120? Yes, 120 is, uh, you know, that's very low. Not for Cy Young. Yeah. I, I'm with you on Cy Young.
17:50
But for Rookie of the Year, that's incredibly... Spencer Strider had, I think, 200. Almost. Am I, am I... No, I'm sorry, he had 200 strikeouts. Um, he didn't have 200 innings.
18:00
I have to go look back at what Spencer Strider had. But Spencer Strider had way more innings than that. I mean, we're talking he has 15 starts right now. Skines has a total of 15 starts.
18:10
Conservatively, you could say he has five, six more, give or take, you know, when the Pirates shut him down, if they shut him down when they're out of the race. I think the maximum he could start is nine.
18:20
We're talking about a guy who's barely gonna start 20 games. If the Pirates cared this much, they could have brought him up on opening day. All right.
18:27
You know, if, if this was such a big deal for him to win Rookie of the Year, then he should've been up at the beginning of the season.
18:33
You're gonna shut out a guy, a 21-year-old starting center fielder who played, like, 19 games- [laughs]...
18:39
above A ball and has, you know, 20 home runs, is looking like he has an outside shot at a 2020 season in his 21-year-old year.
18:45
You're gonna shut a guy like that out who's been up since opening day contributing to a potential playoff team, you know, a team that's, uh, battling the Dodgers this far down the stretch for the, for the NL?
18:55
The Pirates, the Pirates are battling the Nationals for who can stay out of elim- you know, who can not be eliminated longer. So congratulations to Paul Skines. He's awesome. He started the, the All-Star game.
19:07
He's gonna have an amazing career. He's not gonna win Rookie of the Year. The market's telling you as much. I mean, he went from f- minus 4,500 to a minus 300 favorite. What's he gonna be next week? Wow.
19:18
I wound up Jason. So wait, so f- Yeah, no... so would you, would you tell people to bet, to bet Merrill at plus 250 right now?
19:25
No, I'd tell you to read the, the VSiN newsletter so you could've got him at 45-1 before the season- Bam... when I bet him the first time. And when you came on the show and mentioned it. [laughs] Okay. Yeah. All right.
19:37
[laughs] That was great. And I would've, I would've told you- That's great... I would've told you to read the other VSiN newsletter when Skines got up to 50/1 and I said, "Hey, that's a good price on him, too."
19:45
You'd be sitting pretty there. So, you know. [laughs] I think, I think we just gotta play out the, the string here, but- Oh, man. Do you have, do, do you have him at 45/1, Jason? Is that your number?
19:55
No, I got a, I got a lower number. I didn't get the best number on Skines.
19:58
I did have to take some, 'cause there was a time, you have to remember, and I wrote about this stuff in the beginning of the year, uh, Jared Jones, Skines' own teammate, was, was ahead of him.
20:07
You know, we, we had the two Japanese pitchers at the top of the board. I kept saying, "None of this is correct. You know, if anybody's gonna win, look at Skines at this huge number."
20:16
Um, but so I have a little bit on him. I d- I don't think he's gonna win. My, my money is, is squarely in camp Jackson Merrill. Um, also I'm real big on Chris Sale.
20:25
I don't know if you noticed last night, but he's within- He knows... four strikeouts of the, the strikeout title, and Dylan Cease, who's the other guy in charge, he goes to Coors this weekend.
20:34
So, uh, Chris Sale, got a lot riding on him right now. Sale, I was gonna say Sale was your best call of the year, but maybe not. Maybe it, maybe ultimately it will be Jackson Merrill.
20:43
Um- So that is to just- Why, why not both? And both. Why not both? Uh, M- yeah, well, he was, like, even money yesterday when we were ta- looking at this. Minus 150 Sale moves to- Coming to Sale now. Yeah...
20:53
yeah, moves to. And then Spencer Strider, his rookie year, 131 innings, innings pitched. Thank you. 131 innings with 200 plus strikeouts. Yep. And he didn't come close to winning and beating his teammate Michael Harris.
21:07
We have a similar outfielder versus pitcher thing coming up this year, and you're telling me that Skines is all of a sudden gonna get all these other votes with worse numbers than Spencer Strider? I don't know.
21:15
I don't, I don't think I buy that. When did, when did Paul Skines hurt you, Jason? When did it happen? What did he do? I'm just saying. I'm- I know. I'm joking... I'm not saying. I'm joking. [laughs] I'm just saying.
21:25
You know what? Jackson Merrill- I'm joking... doesn't have a hashtag Paul Skines Day, okay? Like, that's, it's not a thing. [laughs] Oh, I'm, I'm excited.
21:31
Now this, this race is awesome now 'cause Jason is fired up about it. I like it. Uh, what did you end up in, uh, with Baseball Today? Nothing. I couldn't find a single bet in baseball- [laughs] He's angry about this...
21:41
after all that. Very, uh, very upsetting. I'm, uh, I have to find something else to do with my time today other than betting. Can I lead Jason into another promo? What proxy do you use for contests?
21:52
[laughs] But don't answer that. I'm, I'm not in any of the, the contests. Oh, okay. I've, I've told you this before, I'd rather spend 1,500 bucks on a pair of shoes- Oh, yes. We've been through this...
22:00
than do, do one of these contests. We've, we've been over it. But speaking of contests, I'm waiting for my invite from the VSiN Friday football contest. It must've got lost in the mail. Oh. Must've got lost in the mail.
22:10
That's an exclusive, uh, party right there. Yeah. And we're all still waiting for ours, Jason. What can I tell you? Yeah, I don't know.
22:15
Maybe I gotta, gotta email, gotta email Bill about that or something, but I'm wait- I'm waiting. I'm sitting here waiting. You need a claw machine update, uh, on Friday, Jason. Yeah. Claw machine update coming.
22:25
I, I will. Uh, the, go, go, go Jackson Merrill. Jason Weingarten, fired up from under a cloud of smoke. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. By the way, Winner Circle- Thank you...
22:34
Winner Circle Proxy Service is the, uh, proxy service that I would recommend. How about you, Kelly? Me as well. Okay. Every single time. Sign up today at wonercircleproxy.com. Man, Jason was fired up. Come back.
22:46
Paul Carr will join us. Paul Spohrer first on baseball next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Barr Canada here at The D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
22:58
He is by far our tallest c- our tallest regular guest, ladies and gentlemen. He stands 6'5" tall and he weighs about, oh, I don't know, I'm gonna call it 155, 160. Built like the great Chris Sale.
23:10
It's Paul Spohrer, everybody, @Spohrer on Twitter, from FanGraphs, joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Is that an accurate, uh, description of you? It, it's very accurate, yes. Chris Sale, I'll take it.
23:21
Stop sign also works. The inflatable man out in front of a- [laughs]... used car lot. You know, there's a lot of different things you can go to. The wiffy arm guy. Stop, stop sign. [laughs] Right.
23:30
I, there was only one question for me to start this segment with, because we just had Jason Weingarten on, and for roughly 10 minutes, he went ballistic on why Paul Skines should not win the National League Rookie of the Year, and why Jackson Merrill should.
23:46
So I ask you, Jackson Merrill's plus 250. Should people bet on this? I think they should. Um, I, I'm certainly open to it.
23:54
I don't know that, you know, I'm as vehement about it being Merrill right now, but I think he has a really good chance to kind of solidify that narrative over the course of the next two months just by continuing to kind of do what he's been doing or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof.
24:08
Jackson Merrill's been amazing this year, and it is a little bit of an under-covered story, um, maybe because, you know what, he's like the sixth most popular guy on the Padres, not through his own fault.
24:19
He just got here. But Jackson Merrill's been amazing. Skeens, you know, started the All-Star game. He's been unbelievable, and I understand why he's the favorite.
24:28
But as they fall further and further out, I, I think that might play a little bit of a role, too.
24:33
The Rookie of the Year doesn't usually hinge on team narrative, but it could actually swing on that this year, and I don't know if I hate that.
24:41
I, I, I'm, I'm being a little inconsistent because I don't love it with like MVP, but I'm saying as like a tiebreaker, I don't know if I mind it between Merrill and, and Skeens, the fact that he's contributing, Merrill, to a playoff chase versus Skeens doing all he can, but the Pirates not really doing anything.
24:59
Maybe there is some merit to that being the, uh, the kind of decider. All right. Let me go back to something else we talked about early on the show. Uh, Triple Crown in the National League.
25:08
J- Aaron Judge, 18 points behind in batting average behind Bobby Witt Jr., so not quite- Right... there yet in that category, but obviously just ridiculous season for Judge. He'll win MVP going away barring injury.
25:22
Otani, 36, 85, and 298 in the Triple Crown categories of home run, RBI, and average. Ozuna, a home run behind, five RBIs ahead, and four points in batting average ahead.
25:36
If Marcell Ozuna won the Triple Crown, which would be only the second time it's happened in either league since 1967, should he win the MVP? Boy. [laughs] You know,
25:54
I don't know, uh, that I'm against it with Marcell Ozuna. He's been so amazing.
25:59
I understand that the thresholds are really high for a DH, and people will start ci- citing the war, and I don't think that that would be particularly fair, uh, just because, I mean, they, they get absolutely crushed, D- DHs do, in the war component.
26:11
And I get it, right? They're not contributing on defense. But you put up that kind of offensive season, and again, I, I revert back to, you know, like team context narrative.
26:21
It would also be pretty heavily weighed if he carries them to the playoffs, right? Because they're limping right now.
26:27
If he drags that carcass of a lineup, Marcell Ozuna, to the playoffs, I think that plays heavily for him, even though Ohtani would also be on a playoff team, of course.
26:39
And then you have Elly De La Cruz, who's not on a playoff team, who is probably the best all-around player this year with what he's does defensively and base running, but I think he's kind of left out in the cold, um, if only because the Reds kind of stink.
26:52
Marcell Ozuna, 70 to 1 when this show started to be the MVP. Wow. 70 to 1, and he is on the cusp of a Triple Crown.
27:02
Um- Now, I think it is a binary, though, that if he doesn't win it, he has literally no chance at the MVP versus if he does win it, Ozuna has a chance at it, right? 100%, 100%.
27:12
Like I, I think he has to win the Triple Crown to even consider. That's right, and that's what I was getting at earlier in the show, which is this is a fascinating historical thing because again, 2012,
27:24
Miguel Cabrera, your, your boy Miggy, gets the Triple Crown. Right. And people were entertaining Mike Trout, and I was like, you can't.
27:31
After 45 years of talking about this mythical thing, you can't ignore that he did it. You have to give him MVP, and they did. Right. Have, have... Does that happening make us not value this thing that we made up, right?
27:45
Triple Crown is just a home run, RBI, average. We decided that's a Triple Crown. Right. Does that happening, the fact that he broke the 45-year drought, mean that 12 years later we don't care about it at all
27:57
if someone does it? I wouldn't say that we don't care about it at all. I think there'll still be big advocates for it, and listen, Gil, we made all of this up, right? We made- We made it all up... a, a game up- Yes...
28:05
with four bases to run around and hit, hit a ball with a stick. We did. So it's all made up and that's fine, and like yes, the Triple Crown is made up, but it's also extremely rare. Yes.
28:13
So they did hit on something that doesn't really happen that often, as cool as it is. Um, so I do think it would bring back that cachet again.
28:20
Now, I think a lot of people realize that Trout was the better player that year. I think that... I think that's pretty obvious.
28:26
The Triple Crown was really cool for Miggy, and as a Tigers fan, I, I can't say I was super angry that he won it, but I think Trout was the better player.
28:34
And again, if we've got somebody else who is clearly the better player, maybe Ozuna doesn't necessarily- D-... uh, win with a Triple Crown. But I think he's got a great chance to do so.
28:42
But don't we- I think it brings back all the nostalgia again... don't we have a better player in Ohtani, really? Even if he wins the Triple Crown, don't we have that circumstance? Yes. [laughs] I mean,
28:54
s- sort of though, right? Aren't they doing the same stuff offensively- Well, I'm-... and neither of them plays defense...
28:59
I'm just playing with your analogy that you just gave, so I'm just, I'm just, I'm just riffing off that. Right. Yeah. So I'm just saying- So- Yeah... you know, do, do we value the Triple Crown a bit more than...
29:08
Also, the fact that like Ohtani has 33 steals. That's a component. Yes. That matters. Yes, it does. So- Yes, it does... you know, it will be quite a conversation, 'cause I think- That's right... you're right.
29:18
The fact that the recent n- the recency of Miggy's Triple Crown might take some luster from Ozuna to where maybe he doesn't win it automatically if, uh, MVP automatically if he wins the Triple Crown.
29:28
Yeah, and it's Marcell Ozuna with a domestic violence suspension three years ago. Correct.
29:32
And a DUI, and then some people, not us, but some people might counter by saying, "Yes, but Ohtani with the gambling stuff," which obviously is anybody's best guess. Not a one-to-one there.
29:42
Even- Not a one to- Even if you were to- Not a one-to-one in my book... put it on Ohtani, it wouldn't be a one-to-one. Not a- Yeah. No. I- But is this where the Wemby, the Wemby stuff comes into play?
29:51
Like are there any, are there any baseball voters that would say, "Well, you know what? We're gonna give this award to this guy for so many more years to come"? Of course. I don't know. So let's wait till he pitches
30:04
I don't know I can't get that out of my head. I mean, that would- Can't get it out of my head. I, I agree with the, the tweet before, though. It's like if, if he's that big of a favorite now, Ohtani, it...
30:10
And then he's pitching next year, he should start minus 1,000. Right, yeah. Sure. At 100%. Probably. Yes. Right. Okay. Paul, uh, just wanna ask you this. It's August, it's August 13th. Right.
30:21
In your heart of hearts, if I said to you right now, "All right, Paul, who do you really think is gonna end up in the World Series?" Do you have any idea? Like, are there two teams?
30:31
Is there one team in each league where you're like, "Am I... If you're really asking me right now, would I really think it's these two teams?" Or is that just impossible to answer?
30:41
I, I think it's, it's close to impossible. I, I, I would pick two teams, but I would probably lean blue blood. It'd be boring as hell to say something like Philly, Houston.
30:49
But if, like, I'm p- if I'm pinned, then I'm gonna go with the, with the dudes who keep doing it every time, right? Especially Houston to the ALCS all the time. And here they are again looking like a force.
31:01
And, you know, possibly Verlander waiting in the wings as their pitching is already rounding into form with Framber back on track, Hunter Brown looking excellent.
31:08
Kikuchi looks like they've unlocked a little something with him by paring down his arsenal and letting him focus I think his fastball, curveball, that they've really got him pitching.
31:16
Uh, so all of a sudden they could be four deep with the offense that they've got clicking.
31:21
And then Philly, I know they're in a bit of a lull right now, but I still look at the roster and I feel very, very strongly about it with the offense that they have, the more improved defense over recent years that they have.
31:31
And then that d- that depth of bullpen in the playoffs is gonna play well. And some of those guys are getting bumped around a little bit. That's part of why things have gone south. The offense isn't clicking.
31:40
But I still really, really believe in the Phillies.
31:42
So yeah, I'd, I'd give a boring ass answer, um, but that's the best I could do because it is wide open, and I really do think we have another dance where whoever gets in and starts clicking, th- they can go on a run.
31:52
As- Yeah... improbable as they might seem right now, whether that's the Giants doing it or, or people maybe not bought in- Oh... on the Royals yet. Whoever it is. I, I mean, y'all have a legit closer now, too.
32:02
I love Ryan Walker, really excited about that, uh, from a fantasy angle. You know I'm always crushing your Giants. Yes. But here you guys are- I just-...
32:10
lingering and, uh, and looking pretty strong with one of the best pitchers in baseball going in Mr. Blake Snell. I just heard Giants come out of Spor's mouth.
32:17
The reason I ask that, because I w- uh, Will Hill was kind enough to have me on the Shoulda Bet More podcast that he does, and we, and he asked me that. Like, you know,
32:25
i- and I, my response was, before this Philly swoon that they just had- Right... I would've probably said the Phillies are the one team I can still see being awesome at home.
32:34
They've got the great starting pitching and the lineup is killer. But now even them, right? Like, I just have no idea.
32:41
Throw them all up in the air, and that's why I advocate betting a, a real long shot match up, which I did with the, uh, with the Diamondbacks and the Royals at 400 to 1. Pick your long shot match up. Love it.
32:51
DFS to close, sir. 30 seconds. Well, a lot of studs today. You can go Scoobel, Kirby, Lugo at Minnesota. That, that could be a decent pivot. Hunter Green. I like Michael King. Nestor Cortes against the White Sox.
33:03
And then if you're flipping it looking for some bats, I think you can go Gamber. Uh, you, you go Arizona Diamondbacks against Gamber. You can go Mets against Stripling. I don't know who Zebby Matthews is.
33:11
I gotta read up on him. No shade to him. But I am gonna go some Royals against the Twins there, uh, if I'm looking for some bats, and Boston bats against José Urquidy. I like it.
33:20
Paul Spore, everybody, @spore, S-P-O-R-E on Twitter. Thank you, sir. Thank you. Have a good one. That Kansas City Monarchs hat, is that what you had on there? Yes? It's KC City Connect. It's KC City Connect.
33:32
Royal, Royal City Connect. There you go. Paul Carr on the other side. Season long Premier League plays. Thank you. You don't wanna miss it. It's next.
33:40
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Back on a numbers game, live from Bar Canada at the Dinkum, Alexander, Kelly, Midlan, where sports betting lives. I, uh, also mentioned to Kelly that there's a, there's a golfer behind him on a screen.
34:03
I'm beyond fascinated by this. Her first name is, and I'm not making this up, Asterisk. S- uh, finished, uh, runner-up, I believe, in the junior championships. Good for her. Asterisk.
34:14
That might be the worst first name I've ever heard. I don't wanna read a bunch of tweets, but I just wanna read this one after Jason's appearance.
34:19
Bill Jacoby said, uh, thanks to Jason for his, uh, VSiN MLB preseason write-ups.
34:25
Thanks to that, he has Merrill, Jackson Merrill, at 66 to 1, and Colton Cowser at 33 to 1 to win [laughs] American League Rookie of the Year. Colton Cowser's like minus 250 or something. So Jason just getting it done.
34:39
280. Minus 280. Yeah. Pardon me. Okay. Wow. Uh- There we go... ladies and gentlemen, he is here to talk about, uh, Premier League season long bets, but first he has a very sophisticated rebuttal to Jason's segment.
34:50
It's the great Paul Carr @paulcarr on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from True Media Networks and of course the Expected Value Podcast. What's happening, Paul? Oh, did we lose Paul? We lost Paul.
35:03
But it's a very stoic, frozen, uh, screenshot. It was a very... I thought he was... Oh, no, no, he's moving. Skeens down to minus 250. Minus 250 as we're speaking. Yes, as we're speaking. Did we do that?
35:12
This has dropped. I think I saw him at minus 900 this morning. Or am I making that up? Was that last night? Uh, it might've been last night. Still. Still. Um, Paul, your sophisticated rebuttal.
35:24
Gil, you know I'm a numbers guy. Yes. So I love the stats to back everything up. My very sophisticated rebuttal is that I have a Paul Skeens ticket at plus 1700. [laughs] There it is. That's all you need.
35:33
That's his rebuttal. [laughs] I have a Paul Skeens ticket. Uh, okay. Before we get your picks, you are doing... We, we never... We, I don't, I... Not, I shouldn't say we.
35:42
I do not do a good job of promoting this about you, but you also do soccer for The Ringer, among the many things you do. Yeah. Explain what you're doing for them this year when it comes to the Premier League.
35:51
Yeah, so we've done Ringer Soccer Show and their gambling feed for major tournaments and Champions League, and so part of the year.
35:58
And we're going once a week, mostly Premier League, but whatever kind of the big soccer story, US, Champions League, things like that. So should be in your feeds every Monday. Wow. Maybe Tuesday morning as we get going.
36:07
And we just did the Long form preview last night Multimedia empire this man is building. Multimedia. I like it. I like it. Yeah. Oh, okay. Who, wait, Paul, who are you doing that with? So we- Is that, uh, with Raheem?
36:19
That's Steve Sarudi- Okay... and Anthony Dabundo. I whiffed, whiffed on both. [laughs] Thought Raheem Palmer might be involved. Oops, sorry. [laughs] We were hoping Raheem was, was involved in it, yeah. Sorry, Raheem.
36:29
Yeah. Uh- Welcome to come on the show, though. All right, let's start at the top. Uh, who's winning this thing? Do it. Where's the bet? So this is basically a two-horse race. It's Man City and Arsenal.
36:39
But kind of, well, it's really not like it was at the beginning of last year, but it's how it was at the end of last year when City won the title by two points over Arsenal. And these two teams are pretty even.
36:49
I mean, as the prices you'll see are, you know, it varies a little bit book to book, but it's roughly, you know, plus 140 for City, plus 160, plus 180, somewhere in that range for Arsenal. I like Arsenal given the price.
37:01
Uh, plus 175 is where I got it. Their defense is better and deeper than last year when they were the best team in the league. They made a, a couple good signings there.
37:11
Now, the question is, and I think we talked about this last year, like, does Arsenal have another gear? I'm not sure they do, but I'm also not sure they need it.
37:19
Like, they and City were both at such a high level last year that, you know, just one little injury, one game or two here and there is obviously the difference.
37:26
So if they can hold steady or even, you know, stay, they got 89 points last year. If they get 85, I think that's probably enough to win the title this year. Uh, City's margin of error just isn't great.
37:37
An injury or two, you know, to one of their two or three key guys is a big deal. Uh, so I just like, you know, getting a slightly better price on what I think is, you know, closer to a coin flip between the two.
37:47
I have Arsenal at plus 175. All right. You know what I'm gonna say. If, if Kim, the valet guy at my building- Mm-hmm... lifelong Arsenal fan- Okay... just heard you say that- Nope...
37:55
he would be screaming bloody murder at you for this. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He, he does not want any part of being a favorite, and Arsenal hasn't won a league title since '04. So they've- Yeah...
38:04
got their work to do, but it's, it's there for them this year. He wouldn't even consider it a jinx. He'd be like, "There's no chance in the, in the world that it will ever happen-" Right, right...
38:11
to, to, to him 'cause good things don't happen to him. He's a, he is a true Arsenal fan. Yes, [laughs] he is. All right.
38:15
So Man City and Arsenal, let's say Arsenal and Man City in the order that you just gave them, if they're gonna fill two of the top four spots, top four spots eligible for the Champions League, the other two must be filled, and there are bets you can make to finish in the top four, correct?
38:30
And you like some, right? Yeah. There's about five teams that are, you know, realistic contenders for those other two spots, 'cause yeah, City and Arsenal are pretty much locks for the two.
38:40
And, you know, I mean, all, all five of these teams have questions. This is why they're not title contenders. But I like Newcastle at plus 230 to get into the top four. They have, you know, they're a pretty stable team.
38:52
They had some injuries last year, so they finished further down the table. But they have another year under Eddie Howe, who's one of the best managers in the league.
38:58
They might be signing, uh, center-back Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace, who's one of the best center-backs in the league. That would be a big deal.
39:04
If they don't get him, they'll probably sign someone else to reinforce the defense.
39:08
So they also don't have Champions League this year, which means you're missing those extra six to eight group games during the, uh, this first half of the season. So that's a big deal for Newcastle.
39:19
There's no European games to worry about. Uh, and just again, questions about Manchester United. Doesn't have a midfield, and Chelsea has a new manager, and Liverpool has a new manager, and Villa has a lot of turnover.
39:28
And Tottenham is not bad. I kinda like them for top four. Uh, longer shot as well. But Newcastle, plus 230.
39:35
I think the stability and upside that they have there is what gets them into the top four, and it's a good price on them. All right. We did a champion. We did to get into the top four.
39:44
There's obviously 20 sides in the Premier League. What about to get into the top half, to finish top half of the table?
39:52
I'm gonna go back to a team I played a lot last year and didn't work out all that much, just on a game-to-game basis. But I like Brentford to get into the top 10 at plus 400.
40:01
So I mentioned there's about seven teams for the top four spots, which means there's basically three top 10 spots left, and you, you can write off some of those teams that are relegation, uh, likely to be relegation contenders and such.
40:14
So Brentford at plus 400. Here's the case.
40:16
They were, they only had 39 points last year, but they underachieved their expected goal difference by 12, meaning, you know, given the shots they gave up and took, they probably should've had, uh, a goal difference that was about 12 better, which is a pretty huge number.
40:29
Uh, just like other sports, you talk about one-run games in baseball, one-score games in the NFL. Yeah. Uh, one-goal games in soccer are a thing. Brentford was 3 and 11 in games decided by exactly one goal last year.
40:40
That was the worst of any team that stayed up. So they're due for some sort of, uh, positive regression in that sense. And they just have continuity, you know?
40:48
They didn't fire their manager 'cause they had a bad year, so Thomas Frank is back for a sixth season.
40:52
Uh, Bryan Mbeumo is a attacker for them who had, was hurt for most of the second half of the year after seven goals in the first half. Uh, they probably still have Ivan Toney, who's the big scorer up top.
41:02
Uh, they have a, brought in a backup who got hurt. But they're, they're in decent shape on the attacking side. So all that, I just think Brentford at plus 400, one of the best run teams in the Premier League.
41:11
Got a pretty good shot at sneaking in one of those other three spots. All right. Let's go to the bottom. Three teams are relegated every year. Three teams come up. You have a bet for relegation. Yeah.
41:21
So last season, all three newly promoted teams went right back down. All right.
41:25
It's always tempting to just do that again because, you know, look, you were in a lower division, which mean you had lower wage bills, players weren't as good, et cetera, et cetera.
41:34
Uh, and I wouldn't argue if you wanted to do that, but I'm picking one of those teams specifically. Uh, Southampton, plus 110.
41:40
So you can get plus money on a newly promoted team to go down, which is just in general pretty good since about half of them tend to go right back down. Um, but the case is also this. Their defense was okay last season.
41:51
It wasn't great, and defense historically has proven to be more indicative of Premier League success for these newly promoted teams than offense. So if your defense isn't good, that's a bad sign for Southampton.
42:02
They also played a style that relied on a lot of possession last season, which they will not have in the Premier League because they're not one of the better teams.
42:10
So couple, just a couple of big strikes against them, so get plus money on, on that. Oh, and we lose Paul right before the, uh, the beautiful ending here.
42:20
So, so let's review the four that he has while we try to, uh, hook back up with Paul. Arsenal to win the title, plus 175. He likes that price. Obviously, a two, two-headed monster at the top between Arsenal and Man City.
42:32
He's got Newcastle to finish in the top four at plus 230. He's got Brentford to finish top half at four to one odds. Southampton, who just got up into the Premier League, now to be relegated right after that.
42:44
He's got them to be relegated at plus 110. By the way, real quick, Paul, uh, Preston Johnson's Crawley Town, which just won their opening game, they're still two leagues below Premier League, correct? Right.
42:55
They're in League One, right? League One. They got promoted up from League Two. And what, and what's in between, between League One and- Championship... Championship. Okay. Champion- You said Championship, you said? Yep.
43:04
Okay. So they're not a candidate, but maybe in two years. Uh, all right. Finally, Golden Boot. What do you got? So obviously Erling Haaland is the huge favorite.
43:14
You know, he's minus money to win the Golden Boot, which is crazy, but he won it last year and didn't have a great season, so obviously understand that price. So that's not very interesting.
43:23
So the longer shot I like is Alexander Isak from Newcastle. He's at plus 1600. He's the third or fourth favorite, depending on where you're looking.
43:31
Third in the Premier League last season with 21 goals, and that was in line with his expected numbers, so he wasn't running super hot.
43:37
And the two things I always say, you gotta be on a good team, a top four type of team, and you gotta take penalties, and he made five penalties last season for Newcastle.
43:44
So the top scorer for one of the top four teams, I think, uh, in the league. Has proven he can get 20 plus goals, which is generally where you need to be.
43:51
I mean, you're kind of essentially betting on Haaland or Man City having an injury crisis, but at plus 1600, I think that's worth it. Alexander Isak, Kelly, to win Golden, to win the Golden Boot, 16 to one.
44:03
Love that guy. [laughs] He's, you all... I mean, if you've spoken- He always has... about him once, you've spoken about him a thousand times. I, I got his jersey sweater kit at home. [laughs] Whichever one works.
44:14
Sweater. [laughs] Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it, man. Oh, you bet. Paul Karich coming on The Ringer, doing big things. Not with Raheem, though. Not with Raheem. Not with Raheem. Uh, we've done all we can do.
44:24
Best Bets is next. Enjoy, from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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