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Aug 13, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 13, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 13, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, it's You-Tube TV, by the way, not You-Too TV. Sirius XM Channel 158. Yes.
0:21
[laughs] It's Gil Alexander. Just wanted to clarify in case you were looking for You-Too TV. Gil Alexander. That is Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
0:29
I kind of wanna punch in You-Too TV in my browser right now, but I'm a little scared of what might come up. Yeah. It's like Bono and then us. [laughs] And then back to Bono. I didn't even think about that.
0:39
Uh, this, uh, this show is packed with guests. Overbooked. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, on the show today, hour number two, it w- not even listed 'cause there's no room. No room. It's on a second graphic.
0:50
Rufus Peabody will join us, maybe the best, uh, bettor of his generation. What's he gonna do? He gonna keep on betting these days- I don't know. We'll see... with new tax laws? We'll find out from Rufus.
1:00
Been traveling the world. Ed Fang from the Power Rank. Uh, these, of course, are folks who are here for Bet Bash. Bet Bash V, spanky sports betting conference.
1:08
So Ed Fang, Rufus Peabody, Kelly Country Clubbin' on the BMW as well in hour number two. Greg Peterson, full MLB slate. Oops. Oops. Peterson with MLB.
1:18
Did I look at the MLB schedule and see that everything is, like, an hour back today in the morning? Oh, really? Let me check that out. Or did my phone just go on the fritz and start going at a different time zone?
1:27
Put you at, put you in Mountain Time? Yeah. I don't know. Greg Peterson, full MLB slate. He'll be talking. Paul Carr, this is w- this is my favorite Paul Carr appearance of the year. I'm pumped, actually.
1:35
Like, really pumped. Yeah. Premier League season longs. I was lis- I was listening to him, uh, uh, on the podcast for a little bit on my way in. The Ringer podcast? The Ringer podcast. Yeah.
1:45
And they did, like, an hour and 45 minutes. Uh, he'll- I didn't listen to the whole thing, obviously... he'll, he'll talk title, he'll talk top half, he'll talk bottom half, relegation, last place, Golden Boot.
1:56
He'll explain to us what top half and bottom half mean? Eh, I think that's self-explanatory. Oh, okay. It is? See, there's 20 teams, then there's 10 on top, and there's 10 on the bottom.
2:06
Wait, th- those are like conferences? No, it's just you can make bets in those markets. Okay. No conferences. Um, and then we can talk about other stuff with him, too, uh, again, off-season main storylines.
2:17
We'll do it all Premier League. And Will Hill will join us, uh, before all of that for all of his bets across the ol' sports betting landscape.
2:24
Uh, there are no tennis plays this morning, Kelly, which, uh, I don't know, some people will say, "Oh, okay, how could you have none, uh, with the momentum?"
2:32
Yesterday, by the way, yesterday in tennis hit another couple big doggies. We were two and two, but the two winners were a plus 235 on Lucia Bronzetti and a plus 264 on Ella Seidel. Nice.
2:45
Could have even had a better day. Seidel won a, won a tiebreaker, a come from behind tiebreaker to win that match for us.
2:50
But the other two matches, which was, which were a plus 311 and a plus 181, the pl- plus 311 lost two consecutive tiebreakers, and the plus 181 lost a tiebreaker that she had no business losing a set, th- that, that particular set.
3:03
But anyway, a plus 235 and a plus 264 yesterday, a plus 319 the day before, a plus 147, a plus 263, a plus 196, and a plus 142 to boot the last four days. So it has been a tennis cavalcade, and yet, Kelly Bidlin,
3:20
no tennis plays today. There are, uh, we're at the business end of the tournament in Cincinnati, which is, of course, the prelim, if you will, to the United States Open.
3:29
Um, and the reason is 'cause just I'm, I'm not just gonna force something because we're hitting a lot of dogs here and doing very well. Um, I could make a case for one play,
3:41
which is Anna Kalinskaya against Ekaterina Alexandrova, and this is a sort of a handicapping little case study where it's okay. Everything's going well.
3:50
The numbers are looking great on my end, obviously manifesting in some big wins. But even with some value that I'm showing on Kalinskaya, hey, if handicapping were only that easy, right?
4:01
There's a head-to- I don't usually pay attention to head-to-head competition. Oh, that's interesting.
4:06
But Alexandrova has beaten Kalinskaya six out of six times, so I'm gonna have the humility and the numbers here to say that maybe there's something I'm not capturing in this matchup. I think that's completely fair. Yeah.
4:16
I think that's completely fair. In, in baseball, for instance, when I handicap baseball, a lot of people look at, uh, BV- BVP, batter versus pitcher stats, and I think a lot of handicappers overrate that. Mm-hmm.
4:27
'Cause unless you have 50 at bats or something like that, it's really noise in terms of a head-to-head matchup between batter and pitcher.
4:35
I always like to kind of pick and choose things that I can compare, you know, compare what we do, golf and tennis, with especially with them being individual sports, but of course, that's not something that I'm el- I'm ever looking at with golf.
4:45
But, uh, that, that's interesting to hear 'cause I feel like I would, I w- I think I'd look at it the same w- the same way.
4:50
You're going, you're weighing recent form data way, way more than what you're we- weighing with those guys head-to-head lifetime.
4:56
Yeah, and so in other words, so why, why are you doing it for this one in this tennis match? Just because I have a, there's just a hunch on it that I, I also don't do well with Kalinskaya, generally speaking. Hmm.
5:08
There's, there's always a, a, a tennis player or two or a baseball pitch- you know, a pitcher in baseball. I always talk about Ervin Santana as my guy whenever I, all those years I had- Like Keith Mitchell in golf? Yeah.
5:19
Yeah, yeah. Ervin Santana was my guy in baseball. I always talked about, I was like, when it, when I faded him, he was Cy Young. When I backed him, he was a gas can.
5:27
Um, so with Kalinskaya, I never seem to get her right, so I'm gonna, I'm gonna steer clear of that. Now, if, if she wins as a, what is she now, plus 150 dog or whatever she is, plus 155, will I hate myself?
5:36
Yeah, probably a little bit. How do, how do you, uh, how do you feel about these futures right now? We got Sabs plus 220 and Iga plus 275. Yeah. Anybody call her Sabs? Uh, just you. I'm gonna start that. Sabs. Um,
5:50
Iga hasn't played it feels like in a week 'cause she got a, uh, a walkover on these. Um, but uh, yeah. No, I think that's probably priced. I mean, I obviously think Iga's should be shorter, but, you know, tomato, tomato.
6:02
Kalinskaya plus 150 at DraftKings. Yeah, it's, it's getting there But yeah, just gonna, I'm just gonna err on the side of caution today with no tennis plays. We'll be back at it tomorrow. Um, baseball.
6:16
The Milwaukee Brewers may never lose again. The Milwaukee Brewers now with an 11 game win streak. They beat Paul Skeens, and by the way, that has some NL Cy Young implications perhaps.
6:27
But they beat Paul Skeens and the Pirates by two touchdowns yesterday, 14 to nothing. And that's the 11th straight win for the Brewers.
6:34
They are now the first team to have two 11-game winning streaks since the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays. It's been 10 years since another team did this in one season, two 11-game winning streaks.
6:45
You know how long it's taken the Brewers to have those two 11-game winning streaks? A span of 38 days. They did it, uh, wrapped around the All-Star break in July as well. Yep. You were out when this was happening. Yes.
6:58
Matt Brown was in. Yeah. We got note of this. Don't know if you picked this up in the ru- in the rundown. Oh, you- George Webb's free burgers. You love this stuff. It's, I love this stuff. It's back on the line.
7:08
Back on the line. Brewers need one more win. I've never seen a George Du- a, a George Webb burgers. I, I don't even know what it is, Gil. We talked, we talked about some fast food, uh, earlier in the week.
7:18
Never seen one, never heard of it. Giving away free burgers, though, if, uh, they get, pick up a 12 win winning, uh, t- 12 game winning streak.
7:25
Do you know how many times it's happened in the history of the franchises of Milwaukee? Since you're asking like that, it's gotta be very few. Twice. That's amazing. It's amazing.
7:35
And here they have two 11s almost back to back, but again, a span of 38 days. Again, it's the 2015 Jays, the 30- the 1935 Cubs, and the 1954 Cleveland Indians.
7:46
Those are the only other teams that have done it twice, two 11-game winning streaks in the same season. That's amazing. That's wild. Yeah. Um- Get those burgers. Don't let the f- the fans down, Brewers. Come on...
7:55
And the Brewers, by the way, waited till August began to do the second one, so they are 11 and 0 in the month of August. I have the Rangers, who are just miserable. They did not, they immediately stopped scoring runs.
8:04
This is m- my worst call of any of the months.
8:07
But even if I had the Mariners, which is one of the other teams I considered, again, at nine and one right behind the 11 and 0 Brewers in August, the Brewers still have two more, two extra games to play than do the Mariners.
8:18
So this is a massive w- a massive lead in the August sweepstakes here between the Brewers and everybody else. Plus 57. Plus 57. Ha. Look at those one run records for all those teams up on that board right there. Yeah.
8:31
Yeah, that's cra- Man, Mariners. Wow. Brewers three and O, Mariners five and O. Brewers to minus 170 in updated odds to win this month with 19 games remaining. [laughs] Just amazing.
8:43
Um, okay, they go for d- they go for 12 in a row tonight against the, or today against the Pirates. So, um, two divisions in Major League Baseball, the big headline, two divisions tied at the top now.
8:54
Finally happened, Dodgers. A- AL West, NL West. AL West, Astros, Mariners. NL West, Dodgers, Padres. And that's the big news atop divisions.
9:05
And so there's also these interesting, you know, markets for the number six seed in each league, which I think are pretty interesting. Um, actually, can I do the NL one first, guys? Sorry about that.
9:16
A little curveball here, but- These also shifted drastically because of those results last night with the divi- you know- Yes... divisions getting tied up, right?
9:23
You get m- another wild card possibility more l- even more likely. The NL one to me is properly priced.
9:29
In other words, if you look at the NL right now, the NL standings and the way that it shakes out, um, I only think you, I only think there's two teams to consider here. I really do. And that's the Mets and the Reds.
9:41
The Mets currently inhabit the, uh, the number six position in Major League Baseball's, uh, in, in the National League's playoff standings.
9:49
The Mets are, are, the Mets are in sixth, where the Reds are two games behind them.
9:54
Now, the reason teams like the Dodgers or the Padres, who currently, again, the Padres would lose a tiebreaker, so the Padres technically are the number two wild card team, even though they're tied with the Dodgers right now.
10:05
The Cubs are the number one wild card team. Behind Cincinnati, who's two games out, you have the Cardinals and Giants of the world.
10:13
I don't think either of those two teams are good enough to catapult, some of them may even quit, to take the, the sixth seed, in other words, the third wild card.
10:22
And I don't think San Diego or the Dodgers, no matter how you feel about them, or the Cubs, no matter, no matter how you feel about them, are going to fall because the Cubs have the t- have the third easiest schedule the rest of the way.
10:33
The Padres have the second easiest schedule- Oh, yeah... the rest of the way, and the Dodgers have the s- the single easiest schedule the rest of the way. So to me, it's Mets versus Reds. That's it.
10:42
And the Mets have the two-game lead, plus 160, Reds five to one. If there's any bet here, it's only on those two teams. Not feeling Cardinals at all? No. Four games back? Okay. By the way, Reds- Another good breakdown...
10:54
but here, but here's the problem. The Reds have the single hardest remaining schedule in all of baseball. That checks out- So if you-... 'cause I was gonna say that number feels a little long for where they're at. Yeah.
11:03
Yeah, so if you're, if you're thinking about the five to one, keep that in mind. The AL, so, so that one's not very sexy bet, bet, bet-wise. This one's not very sexy bet-wise because it's a complete free-for-all.
11:13
Throw a dart, yeah. [laughs] Yeah. And I couldn't tell you, like, to me, the best value is probably the Rangers and then the Astros falling at seven to one to plus 750, but I have no conviction behind it.
11:27
Rangers can't hit. Astros would have to fall quite a little bit. Yeah. Um, Red Sox are probably the correct short shot, but this is a complete dart throw to me.
11:36
I don't see any particular value on any team, and I don't want to prattle on and make it a case for any of them. But those are interesting markets you can bet into for sure as well.
11:44
We'll get Will Hill's thoughts on that. Maybe he has a thought on the AL and all his bets next on a Numbers Game with Beaston, the sports betting network.
11:50
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:04
Right now you can check out Wes Reynolds' BMW Championship picks, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, we'll have Greg on here soon, and Lou Finaccaro's UFC 319 picks.
12:13
Later today, you can check out Josh Applebaum's MLB betting splits best bets, Tyler Shoemaker's WNBA picks, and Steve Makinen's MLB analytics report.
12:22
Right now you can sign up for as little as $9.99 to access all the VSiN Pro articles. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Y'all are the best. Uh, this is from Novak.
12:35
You think that's Novak Djokovic maybe? I think Novak- Probably He says, "Will Paul Carr be on this week?" Maybe possibly. Yes, Paul Carr's coming up here on the show today. Back-to-back days. Ooh.
12:44
We got futures today, game b- uh, match bets tomorrow. Paul Carr back to back.
12:50
Uh, The Better Life Tim Lawson, "Question for Paul Carr, how much does he consider teams coming in or out of European tournaments from the year prior when assessing season futures?" I will ask him that.
13:00
I like when, uh, folks tweet in questions for Paul.
13:03
Scuba Scott, "Brewers winning their 12th consecutive game today activates the long ha-," I don't know if you know this, Kelly, "Activates the longstanding Wisconsin promotion of George Webb free hamburgers statewide in effect."
13:13
My guy TBerg95 sent me an article on this. This is, it's, dude, they've been doing this since the '40s, Gil. The '40s, and they've only had to pay up twice. [laughs] Get ready, George Webb. I love it.
13:25
They call it a Milwaukee tradition that's as legendary as the Cull itself. How can it be a- as legendary if it's only happened twice? [laughs] Only, only happened twice.
13:33
He says they'll set a date for the promotion, and people literally line up hundreds deep for a two buck chuck. Todd Hoyer, oh, this is a good point by Todd.
13:41
He says, "I mean, the 2017 Cleveland Indians sort of had two 11-game winning streaks. They just happened to be consecutive." [laughs] That's a good point.
13:49
Uh, and then J-Rod, uh, "Shout out to James Sade who was gonna drive down to see Iga play Marta Kostyuk on Monday, but Marta pulled out Sunday night. Brutal." Yes, James tweeted us about that.
13:59
Imagine he was like, "I can't wait to see Iga play," and then Marta Kostyuk said, "I'm, I'm quitting and I'm going home." Shout out to J-Rod who stopped by before the show. Yeah, J-Rod. Sorry, dude.
14:08
All right, ladies and gentlemen, Will Hill joins us now from a undis- not non-disclosed location. That's Mark Borchardt. By the way, podcast with Borchardt after the show today. Nice.
14:15
Q3 MLB, right before our NFL futures draft as well. Big day. Bum, bum, bum. Will Hill, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Now you can follow him on Twitter @NotTheWillHill.
14:25
He's the host of his own podcast called Should've Bet More, and in addition to being a star of the Megapod and Chris Fallica's Bear Bets pods. How you doing, Will? Gilly, what's going on? Kelly, good to see you guys.
14:37
Good to see you. Uh, can we start with where we l- uh, Kelly and I just left off last segment, which is trying to pinpoint a number six seed in the American League.
14:47
And, well, we also did the National League, but I think the American League is a little more fascinating. Could you back a team in that market? I c- I wanna keep saying Texas, but at some point- Me too...
14:57
you just have to j- put your previous bi- pri- biases aside. I will say, you know, I've, I've gotten futures on them, uh, along the way before the season, I think 25 to 1. I bet them with you in August.
15:09
I added to them right around the deadline. I added them in an exact matchup in the World Series with the Padres at 203 to 1. But at some point, it just, you know what? I, I'm, I'm looking for something.
15:20
I wanna see something that's not there, 'cause they just can't hit. They just can't score enough runs. We were talking in the group chat a couple days ago, I think, where they just, they don't have enough run producers.
15:27
Nope. It's Seager, and it's not much else. Carcea doesn't give them much. So I wanna say Texas, but if I had to bet anything there, I'd probably just take a shot on Cleveland at plus 550 in what has been a wild season.
15:38
But that's, that's a 30 for 30 waiting to happen, [laughs] the Cleveland season, because they were in the ALCS last year or lost 10 in a row, under 500, and here they are, all the gambling scandals, their closer who was third in Cy Young not that long ago, all these guys off the team, and here they are making a surge, not only in the wild card, but in the divisions.
15:56
And look, I, I, I don't know if you've discussed this, I can't remember anything like this, and I don't think it's getting talked about enough.
16:03
These divisions, the swings in these divisions, just go i- in every single one. The AL East, the Yankees led by seven at one point. They now trail by about six.
16:12
Uh, AL Central, the Tigers led Cleveland by 15 and a half games on July 6th. It's down to four. Uh, AL West, Astros led by seven. They're now even with the Mariners. NL West, the Dodgers led by nine on the 4th of July.
16:26
They're now even. NL Central, the Cubs led by six and a half in the middle of June. They now trail by seven and a half, and the Mets and Phillies.
16:34
Mets were up by five and a half, and they were, uh, down as much as six a day or so ago, and they, they made up a game, so now it's I believe five. You don't see this. You see maybe one of these a year. Yeah.
16:43
Those are wild, wild swings we've seen in these divisions. I just, I don't think it's being talked about enough. To go from 15 and a half out to four out, to erase a nine-game lead.
16:52
The Dodgers had a nine-game lead on the 4th of July. It's zip. We're even. And I actually think the Padres, I know it's a tough schedule, I think the Padres are better than the Dodgers right now.
17:00
I actually think they're gonna win the division, but I just think it's being under discussed, underplayed, just the wild, wild swings we've seen in the division.
17:07
You, I think the stat is like 75, 80% of teams that are in first place on Memorial Day usually win the division.
17:12
So we can say, you know, "The season's long, crazy things happen," which is true, but you don't see things like this. To have it in all six divisions is just wild. Yeah, and who is it?
17:21
Like, the Morgan, Adam, and Morihon for the, uh, for the Padres, their ERAs are not, are all below two. Not below three, all below two, right? So I mean, it's such an incredible bullpen. It's a great point you make.
17:33
The, the, my only r- my only response to it also is dot, dot, dot, and there's still a quarter of the season left. I know. So, like, you can't even finish writing that story, right? Because if the Yankees- I-...
17:44
came back strong, if the Dodgers came back strong, which guys like Mark Borchardt believe they will, uh, you know, Dodgers with health, uh, you know, uh, coming back, you know, in good form after the, uh, the return of players, then it's sort of less of a story, right?
18:00
It's like, oh, well that was cute, you know? I don't know. We'll see. Yeah, and you, you dissect these schedules. The Padres have six against the Dodgers, I think s- a few of those this weekend, so those'll be fun.
18:11
But Padres have three against the Mets, three against the Brewers, three against the Mariners, and then those six with the Dodgers. That's a pretty tough schedule.
18:17
They do get seven with the Rockies, but so do the Dodgers. And yeah, but we, we can sit here and look about, w- look and talk about strength of schedule.
18:24
The Dodgers have lost, what, all five, all six games to the Angels here? I think all five so far. Yeah. So, uh, you know, you can take this stuff with a grain of salt, but it's, uh, you know, it's funny.
18:32
You've made this point. Once football starts, we're all immersed. It's Survivor and college, and what a great college slate we have, week one, all the NFL games and all of that.
18:40
But these pennant races, they, they kind of get, uh, get forgotten about. But man, these are some awesome, awesome pennant races. They really are.
18:46
For th- for those of us who still love baseball, they, they really are, and it should be fun into September as well. Uh, okay, what did you land on baseball? Full day of Major League Baseball. I played the Padres.
18:58
Uh, I'll give a little shout-out to our, our sponsor, Prophet X. You can get the Padres minus 138 at Prophet X. There you go. There you go. Uh, better, better starting pitcher, Pavetta. Better bullpen, better lineup.
19:08
I, I'm, I think the Giants, it's funny. I, I kind of cast them asid- a- aside mentally where, all right, they're done. They're out of it.
19:14
If they had just taken care of business this weekend against the Nationals, they were put in a position where they could have crept within a couple games with how bad the Mets have played of a, a wildcard spot here.
19:23
But they lost a couple games to the Nats. They've lost a couple to the Padres. It's just not happening for the Padres. I think as a Giants fan, as a Giants guy, you'd probably, uh, agree with that.
19:31
And this is just, it, it, even though there's a lot of runway left, as you say, the it's just not happening here for, uh, for San Francisco. And that Padres bullpen, man, I was watching some of them last night.
19:40
I've been watching them a lot recently since the deadline. I can't remember in recent memory a, a bullpen this good where you get to the fifth, they think the game is over. They can just march these guys out.
19:49
They're basically unhittable. I know the Yankees had some great bullpens in the late '90s. The Royals one a decade ago was really good with their two setup guys into Wade Davis.
19:57
But man, f- they have four monster relievers here. They are gonna be really, really dangerous in the playoffs. So I played the Padres.
20:04
I played the Phillies with Sanchez, uh, who is a ground ball machine, I think 96th percentile in ground balls in a ballpark where you need to get ground balls, in Cincinnati, which, uh, you know, small dimensions.
20:15
And Hunter Greene is coming off the IL. Throw in the fact that the Reds are awful against lefties, 300 on base percentage, OPS in the sixes. It's been ugly.
20:24
So, um, fading a pitcher off the IL, I get a ground ball pitcher in Cincy, and Sanchez I think is flying under the radar, how good he's been this year.
20:31
So Phillies on the money line for me, and then I did play a couple of first five unders. Uh, Mariners and Orioles, first five under four and a half with, uh, with Gilbert and the resurgent Trevor Rogers.
20:43
And then I went under four Cleveland and Miami with Perez and Gavin Williams, two young pitchers I like. So four plays total. Don't worry, Kelly, I'll text those to you. You don't have to, uh, type away like a madman.
20:52
[laughs] He is. Exactly. Padres money line, Phillies money line, Mariners, Orioles first five under four and a half, Guardians, Marlins first five under four. Wow. There you go. Um, Gilly, where did you get this guy?
21:01
This guy's a machine. [laughs] Should be a stenographer. What a, what a guy. Nice. Number nine is what we call him. Um- Yeah...
21:06
by the way, you know the only month where the Mariners, where the, excuse me, where the Padres' bullpen sucked? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. May. Guess which month I had the Padres. Uh, all right, last- Offense too, man.
21:16
Yeah. Ugh. They were, they were bad in May. They were so bad in May. All right, let's, uh, let's close it with this. Your Minnesota Vikings.
21:23
Kelly and I were talking about, you know, which of the teams that we've heard the most variant viewpoints on. Uh, Kelly likes to say the Miami Dolphins are top of that heap. The Vikings are up there, too.
21:35
Um, they may be 1B to the Dolphins' 1A. Where do you as a Vikings fan stand on them right now? Conflicted, because they have all the signs of regression. They won a lot of close games.
21:46
They were pretty lucky with injuries and turnovers and all that, and they have a, a quarterback that hasn't played before.
21:52
That being said, I thought they got a lot better in some areas in the off-season, better offensive line, better defensive line, and they're so well-coached that I'm just, I'm conflicted.
22:00
That's the best word for it, because that schedule is tough, and that NFC North, man, I think all of those teams are good. So on one hand, you got a ton of talent and good coaches.
22:10
On the other hand, there's regression with the close games and the tougher schedule. So I ultimately
22:15
just defer to being negative when it comes to the Vikings, but I, I could see it going either way, which is a boring answer. More of your betting on Prophet X these days on sweepstakes, yes? Uh, you can't recommend it.
22:26
I mean, just, you're getting 15, 20 cents better, 30 cents better on some of these lines. You're just leaving so much money on the table if you don't use it. Good for you. He's coming around.
22:34
Will Hill, everybody, @NotTheWillHill. Always appreciate it, man. Thank you. All right, see you guys. Thanks. Coming up, soccer, Premier League, season longs, multiple markets.
22:46
Paul Carr is long awaited return on The Numbers Game, next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Taylor Swift on the Kelce podcast. Why can't you book her? Catch a fever.
23:02
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23:29
Kelce's getting Taylor Swift, we get Ed Fang. Who wins? [laughs] Us. Clearly. All right, you just kind of brought up a challenge.
23:36
Now I'm gonna see, I'm gonna see how far up the, the s- levels of assistance that Taylor Swift has that I can actually get a human response from for a booking for this show.
23:47
[laughs] 'Cause I'm definitely not gonna hear from, like, her. You know, you know what the problem is? If, if you, if Taylor Swift actually says, "Yeah, I'll come on the show," I would have no idea what to ask her.
23:55
She's like the one musical artist- Oh, it'd be fine. Yeah. We'd figure it out. "Hey, so you remember that time that you had that one song where you talked about that boy?" I wouldn't know what else to say.
24:02
I'd, I have no idea. She did have a good promo for the pod today, though.
24:05
She brought out, she, like her one line in the pr- little teaser they released was just like Uh, me ta- me on a football podcast, what every guy out there wanted to hear more of. [laughs] That's good. Good for her.
24:16
Uh, Paul Carr, ladies and gentlemen, joins us. It's been a long time since we heard from, uh, Paul on the show. He is, uh, part of the Ringer Soccer Podcast and of course at True Media Networks.
24:26
He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. @paulcarr, C-A-R-R, on Twitter. What's happening, Paul? How you doing, man? Yep. This is one of my favorite shows every year. Get to do Premier League preview.
24:38
Soccer never stops, but it's kind of starting anew, at least in this vein, so we're ready to roll. Soccer never stops. Let's just start with, uh, just a general, if, if you would, for- Yeah...
24:49
if, if we could, which is, you know, just in terms of the off-season, um, from a high level, what's like been a main storyline?
24:58
So far, and I put the asterisk that the transfer window i- is at the end of the month, so things could change in the next couple weeks, but so far, like the rich are getting richer.
25:06
So your top four teams, you know, your Liverpool, Arsenal, City, and Chelsea, which are by far the top four favorites to win or to finish in the top four, are outspending everybody.
25:17
And, you know, almost all the big money transfers have been those four clubs and Manchester United, who are traditionally a big club, although they were terrible last year. We'll get to them in a little bit. So
25:26
you look at the whole mid-table and most of them are like, "Ah, we got a piece or two," but didn't make any big moves.
25:31
So it's just kind of the, the big clubs have been snapping up a lot of big players, both from in England and across Europe. So that, it seems like there's a big divide between the top four and everybody else right now.
25:41
All right. Before we dive in here, Tim Lawson, the Better Life. The Better Life. What, what was the, what's his new, uh, iteration called? The Better Life, a Better, Better something or other?
25:51
Oh, we gotta figure out what it is. Now you're gonna put me on the spot. It's Better Life 2.0. He asks, uh- Mm-hmm...
25:55
a question for Paul Carr, how much does he consider teams coming in or out of European tournaments from the year prior when assessing season futures? Is that a big deal in your handicapping?
26:04
So if I understand correctly, or maybe I'll just go a different direction, when teams play in Europe, that definitely changes things. You know, your top clubs, doesn't really matter.
26:13
They have the depth and the money to manage two, three, four competitions at a time. But one prime example this year is Nottingham Forest. They were a surprise last year, finishing in the top half.
26:22
They almost finished in the top four. And this year they're in Europa League. They haven't been in Europe for a while, even though historically they've had some success winning a couple European cups back in the day.
26:33
I don't know that they have the squad depth. So that's an one reason to kind of fade Nottingham Forest this year.
26:38
I'd be kind of surprised if they finished in the top half, in part because they've gotta go play every Thursday in Kazakhstan or wherever they end up in the Europa League draw.
26:47
So it's a factor, especially for those mid-table type of teams that are not in these European competitions every year. All right. We got a lot to get to. Let's flash up that, uh, Premier League futures board once again.
26:58
Liverpool is the short shot to win, plus 180. Arsenal plus 225. Man City three to one. Chelsea plus 850. Everybody else, starting with Man U, a distant long shot beginning at 30 to one. Who we got to win it all?
27:14
Yeah, so one of the reasons this season looks fun is those top three teams especially, like there's a legit case for all three of them, and there's a legit case against all three of them.
27:22
For me, I'm going with Manchester City at plus, I have them at plus 320, plus 300 there, so right there in that range. And the narrative part is, look, they had a down year last year.
27:34
This is gonna be a bounce back year and, you know, maybe this is Pep's last season. We've been saying that for a while, their manager. But it's a bounce back season. City's gonna be back to normal.
27:42
They're gonna get 85 points and win the league. Uh, so that's, that's your narrative part.
27:46
But last year, as bad as it was, and we made a lot of money betting against them for a couple months, they finished with 71 points, which is, they were three points behind Arsenal, who was in second place.
27:57
So, you know, a few more bounces go their way, they're pushing 80, and they brought in a lot of attacking firepower especially. Uh, not that they necessarily needed more, but they got that.
28:06
Rodri, their defensive midfielder, who was the FIFA Player of the Year a couple years ago, is back. Uh, he'll get to full strength eventually.
28:13
So, so much went wrong, and they still finished in third place relatively easily. They can, they have room to improve.
28:19
Still not sure they can defend, but they're better in attack, and that's enough for me, getting plus 320 on City to win the title. All right. Man City to win the title, plus 320. Shop around.
28:30
Uh, we also flashed up on that table top four, top six. Uh, you're not touching either of those two markets. Yeah, I don't, I don't have a good feel for this.
28:38
Top four, like I said, there's, I think there's four clear-cut teams. I'd be surprised if any of them aren't in the top four.
28:44
The next group of four or so, Man United, Tottenham, Villa, and Newcastle, all have major questions, and it wouldn't shock me if any one of them, maybe a couple of them, finish in the bottom half.
28:54
So, and, and the mid-table is so jumbled that I don't feel great about any team particularly jumping that high. So getting into the top four and definitely making Champions League, top five probably makes it.
29:03
Uh, I'm staying away for now. All right. But top half, bottom half, you do have plays in. Yeah, I got a couple top half plays.
29:11
So like I said, four teams locked for the top half, then four that are very much expected to, but I expect one or two not to make it. So you got two to three spots to play with. Uh, so I have two of them.
29:21
Crystal Palace and Everton I think can both make that jump. Palace was about as good as anybody the second half of last season.
29:29
One caveat for them is they are in Europe this year in Conference League, so that may test the depth a little bit. But they, you know, they played Liverpool to a standstill in the Community Shield over the weekend.
29:40
I think that's an indication of how good they are, and they actually ran bad last year from a underlying numbers standpoint, so there's room to improve.
29:48
So they can do better than their 53 points last season, make the top half. I got plus 170 on them. Everton switched managers.
29:56
They brought back David Moyes, and they were a solid, very solid top half team the second half of last year. They just gotta continue that, and they can sneak back in. Brought in a little bit of attacking firepower.
30:07
Uh, you know, plus 210 is my price for them in the top half. Uh, they were kind of- In the relegation area for a while, even though their underlying numbers were much better.
30:15
But I think they're a solid mid-table team and got a one in three shot at finishing in the top 10. All right, and that's bot- and bottom half Man U. Yeah. I just mentioned one of these teams has gotta fall.
30:26
Doesn't have to, but is likely to fall into the bottom half. I think it's Manchester United again. Only had 42 points, finished 15th, I think, last season.
30:34
They spent over $200 million to bring in three attackers, which is nice, except their big problems were in the midfield and defense. They haven't really done much to address those yet.
30:43
So I don't quite know how this team's gonna fit together. So this is a shot. This is plus 330 to finish bottom half. But I, I just don't quite see them making the jump. They have a real tough start to the schedule.
30:55
Nonzero chance they change managers before Halloween or something. So under, not under, but bottom half for Manchester United at plus 330 for me. Plus 330 on that. All right, relegation, bottom three.
31:06
You've had success in this in the past. Yeah. What do I care? Let's go. Yeah, this is funny. So last two years, all the re- all the newly promoted teams went straight back down.
31:16
So your prices this year on the relegated t- or the newly promoted teams going right back down are pretty crazy. It's, I mean, trying to...
31:23
Burnley and Sunderland to get relegated are, they, like the price is just barely worth playing. Burnley's like minus 310, Sunderland minus 250. By far the worst teams in the league.
31:33
Uh, I'd be shocked if they don't go back down. Leeds is the other one. They're about even money, and that's, you know, I think other people are higher on Leeds than I am, but I can see them staying up.
31:43
So my shot is at Wolves at plus 320, and I think I've picked them like three or four years in a row to get relegated, and they just keep getting away with staying in the league,
31:53
and I think it's gonna catch up with them eventually. They didn't, haven't done a lot offensively or defensively r- r- really to upgrade. They lost their two best attackers during this off-season.
32:03
They do have a good manager, which is the only thing that gives me a little bit of pause, but they've been running so well the last few years that they're almost just due as much as anything, and I kinda hate to say it, but Wolves plus 320, I like that price for them to go down.
32:15
All right, so R- Wolverhampton relegation plus 320. Burnley dead last at plus 160. Yeah. Okay. Keep in mind here- They ran so hot last year.
32:25
They gave up 16 goals last year in 46 games in the championship, which is the second division, but the underlying numbers said they should've given up around 40.
32:32
So their defense really wasn't very good, or wasn't as good as it looked, and a solid defense is the best indication of trying to stay up for these newly promoted teams. So I don't think they have that.
32:43
I don't think they have the ability to score goals. Their manager, Scott Parker, has gotten two other teams promoted before and gone right back down because they can't score. So I think we'll see the same thing there.
32:52
I think they're gonna be really bad. Uh, plus 160 to be last. It's them or Sunderland at plus 175 are, are really the two options. So I went with Burnley here. All right, and finally, 30 seconds.
33:01
Golden Boot, what do you got? Very price dependent. You can get plus 2,800 on Cole Palmer of Chelsea to win the Golden Boot. He takes penalties. He's on a top team. Those are our two criteria.
33:12
So make sure you shop around and find the 2,800. Don't play 17 or 1,800 like a lot of places, but you can find that plus 2,800. He could get 15 to 20 goals and add five or six penalties and maybe make a run. All right.
33:24
Paul will come back tomorrow with actual, uh, match plays, correct? Back-to-back Paul Carr appearances? Yeah. That's right. Let's go. I love it. Thank you, Paul. Great to see you, man. Thanks for all those. You bet.
33:35
Tim Lawson's podcast, by the way, the new version, The Better Life, better than ever. That's right. Want to make that clarification.
33:40
How about some baseball plays all day long with Greg Peterson next on a Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Sharp Plays, check them out.
33:57
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to check them out, sharpplays.com. Big day.
34:09
After the show, again, uh, Q3 MLB podcast, MLB derivatives, first fives, first innings, all kinds of stuff, umpires with Mark Borchert.
34:19
We'll do that offline, podcast format, Beating The Book, and then the VSiN NFL Futures Draft. Bum, bum, bum. Yeah, during the follow the money hours, but Mitch and Paul will not host it.
34:29
Dustin Sweetelson will host it, the ringmaster, and then Mitch and Paul among 10 of us participating in the draft. Gonna last three hours. JVT on the clock, number one pick.
34:42
Kelly Bidlin not invited, but I will, uh, be right at the gym listening eagerly to see how this goes. [laughs] It's, the thing is, when you say that, I, I'm, I'm less...
34:54
What I come to the conclusion of is you're not interested in the picks so much as you are the technical, um, the technical side of things, and if it, if it goes without a hitch. Is that correct?
35:05
Oh, well, well, well, well, well, well. First of all, it's gonna be very informative. There's gonna be a lot of great bets. I can't wait to hear what everybody has to say.
35:12
But I, yes, I'm very intrigued to see how Dustin is going to manage all of you. Okay. I, I, I think they, you, they could not have picked a better host for it. I honestly believe that.
35:21
Like, Dustin would be the best person to handle all 10 of you. Uh, but I want an over under on how many repeated picks happen. [laughs] Like, someone needs to set that line 'cause it's gonna happen.
35:31
I, it's just, like we've talked about, we, we did this on Primetime Action with three of us, and it was, if we went a week without any, any problems, it was a massive success. Oh, yeah.
35:41
So I, uh, I'm not, it's, it's no blame on anybody. This just happens. We get tweets. JC, "I was thinking about how the FanDuel- Be entertaining, though...
35:49
how the FanDuel people can make their money back from the 50 cent tax. Just download the Upside app. Have a great day, fellas." Thank you, JC.
35:56
Three Jag, H3131, "Gil, once Kelly gets Taytay lined up for Taylor Tuesdays, I'm betting she could bring unbiased NFL power rankings each week.
36:04
She may, she may even write a witty opening jingle for you guys, but you may have to briefly date her." [laughs] That's bad. Okay. Who, who would be more miserable, Taylor or me? Prime time, yo. Hey, man.
36:18
Only thing funnier than watching Brewer fans get excited over a crap burger is the same fans dejected, that's dejected, after getting ousted in the playoffs early once again this year, or if they lost in their second attempt at number 12, robbing fans [laughs]
36:31
an hour, from an hour wait for a $1 burger. Yeah, he did, uh, tweet me- Wow... separately saying it was, for me, it would be like an Arby's, uh, roast beef sandwich with mustard all over it.
36:41
He was like, "It's about as good as that." Wow. Full slate, Major League Baseball, day, night. We got just the guy for you. Yeah. Greg Peterson, everybody, @u, @gunit_81 on Twitter.
36:52
His, uh, tribute, his homage to the great Anquan Boldin, who wore the jersey number 81. It's Greg Peterson, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Greg?
37:02
I'm doing great, Gil, and thank goodness we have day baseball today on, like, Monday and Tuesday, so we're doing even better today. Did you notice that, like, the early games are moved back an hour this morning?
37:14
Uh, yeah, but I will gladly take that over having nothing until, like, 6:00 PM Eastern. Oh.
37:19
Last few days have been ridiculous, so, I mean, if we can get day baseball at more like 10:00 AM Pacific Time rather than 9:00, I will gladly take it. Totally with you.
37:29
Uh, before you launch into your baseball plays, is there any dating updates you'd like to share with us? Anything going on in the old love life? Eh, we've just been keeping things steady.
37:39
I've got a lot of college basketball conference previews over the next week or so coming out, so we have been very focused on that. We have to be workmen, like, for the good people out there.
37:48
When you, when you go on a date, do you let them know? Do you like, "Look, I got college basketball previews I gotta work on, so we gotta wrap this up." Do you do that kind of thing?
37:56
Oh, I never make sure that I'm wrapping things up early because of that or anything like that, but I will say in advance, "I do have a little bit of work to do, and that's why- [laughs]...
38:05
we have to do this date a little bit later on." Oh.
38:07
And I never specif- specify that I'm doing, like, the Northeast Conference or something like that because there's not a lot of women out there that are like, "Oh, thank goodness.
38:16
I am so glad that you're gonna be breaking u- down Mercyhurst basketball tonight. Nothing turns me on more than Mercyhurst basketball." [laughs] That's true. Probably- Greg Peterson never wraps it up... probably never.
38:27
Just want to make, I wanted to make sure I got that down. Always, never wraps it up early. Does it beforehand, is what he's saying. Uh, all right, Greg, let's start with the day games.
38:35
What do you like daytime baseball today? Absolutely. We've got ourselves the Brewers versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, and this Brewers team has just become a wagon. Like, my goodness, it is absolutely incredible.
38:47
Now, this is starting to shoot up very, very far. The money line is up to about a minus 250. You're still able to get in on that run line right around about a minus 115, minus 120.
38:57
Starting to get to a little bit of a point of no return. I took the plus money here when the Brewers were there on the run line personally. I do like that seven and a half over with Mitch Keller.
39:07
He's got an ERA that is five on the road for his career, so he's really had his road struggles throughout his career. He's been giving up also about 1.3 home runs per nine innings when he's been on the road.
39:17
This dates back to the beginning of his career, since 2019, and Brandon Woodruff is just mowing them down. 11 and a half strikeouts per nine innings.
39:24
He does give up a little bit of the deep ball as well, but for the Brewers, they pretty much hit the overall by themselves each of the last two nights. They really got to Paul Skeens yesterday.
39:32
So run line's starting to get a little bit lofty here because a lot of money is funneling in on the Brewers, but if you're still looking to back them in some form or capacity, that over at seven and a half I think is solid.
39:43
Over seven and a half. Brewers, Pirates. Brewers going for their 12th straight. Greg betting on the over there. Okay, um, still in the daytime, what do you like? How about if we go with the Colorado Rockies and the St.
39:56
Louis Cardinals, as the Cardinals got shut out yesterday at home by the Colorado Rockies. Now they go up against a guy in Austin Gomber who actually was part of the St. Louis organization a few seasons ago.
40:07
I think that he was part of the Nolan Arenado trade. That total of eight and a half, I think that this is a day where the St.
40:12
Louis Cardinals bounce back, as you've got a pair of guys that are pitching to a ton of contact. For Gomber, he's getting fewer than seven strikeouts per nine innings. And Michael McGreevy doesn't hurt himself.
40:22
He's only giving up in that neighborhood of about, like, one walk and a half a home run per nine innings, but he doesn't get any swings and misses either.
40:29
So I do think that the ball's gonna be in play quite a bit in this one. For the Rockies, they've been a bottom three team in terms of bullpen ERA. I think that this is the bounce back spot for the St. Louis Cardinals.
40:38
Right now on the run line, you'll find that at about a minus 105, minus 110. I'm a little bit more keen on the over, but I still played the run line as well. I'd be willing to play that up to a minus 110.
40:49
LasVegas514 on Twitter: "Yo, can you ask Greg, does he have his Christmas tree up in the middle of August? I saw a Christmas tree in the background of a recent post he made." Oh, absolutely.
40:58
It's an all-year Christmas tree. It can't be an all-year Christmas tree if it's not up all year. So yes, the Christmas tree, it always will be up. It will never be taken down. All right. I- I respect that...
41:09
needed that clarification. Back to baseball. What's next? What's next is you've got the Tigers going up against the Chicago White Sox. Troy Melton is gonna be going for the Detroit Tigers.
41:20
Feels like this is gonna be a little bit of a piggyback/an opener sort of situation for the Tigers. I feel like they've got some good value here at between minus 127, minus 130.
41:29
Recognize that it's been a less than savory run for the Detroit Tigers, to say the least. But for the Chicago White Sox, it's a bottom five team in terms of runs per game.
41:37
You're really not getting a lot of guys other than, like, Mike Tauchman that are hitting for average. And for the Detroit Tigers, I absolutely love what you've been able to get out of this lineup.
41:45
Pretty much everyone except for Spencer Torkelson is hitting a 260 or greater, and Torkelson has been able to spike 25-plus home runs, does a good job with regards to his on-base percentage as well.
41:55
So with the Detroit Tigers, I do think that minus 128, minus 135, solid value here. Okay. Are you making any season longs, uh, at this point with a quarter left in the season, Greg? Or, or, or do you steer clear of that?
42:07
And if you are, what's your favorite one right now, either to make, miss playoffs, uh, to, to win the pennant, to win a division? What do you like? I'm much more of a game to game guy at this time of year.
42:18
That said, if I were to play anything right now, it would be the Texas Rangers to make the playoffs.
42:23
They've lost a few games here recently to the Arizona Diamondbacks, which I do think that they're gonna be able to have a nice bounce back today against Zach Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
42:31
But I do think that they find a way to be able to make the playoffs in an American League that is as wide open as all heck for the Texas Rangers as well.
42:40
Since beginning of the month of July, averaging over 4.7 runs per game.
42:43
Their offense has been much better since beginning of the month of July, albeit this series against the Arizona Diamondbacks has not been the world's greatest.
42:50
But I mean, that's one team that I'd be looking at if you're looking at plus money on a team to be able to make the postseason. Okay.
42:56
Uh, Paper Mike on Twitter says, "Hey, I have friends who hold baseball records at the University of Mercyhurst." So there you go, Greg. You brought up M- Mercyhurst early. Yes.
43:03
All right, give us one more baseball play to go here. How about if we go with plus money on the Miami Marlins against the Cleveland Guardians?
43:10
Eury Perez since coming off the injured list has been rock solid, and for Gavin Williams, though his ERA is relatively low, right around a 3.7, 3.8, the walks are a big concern for him.
43:20
He has given up over four and a half walks per nine innings. The Cleveland Guardians are a very top-heavy lineup. They've gotten themselves back into the American League wild card chase as well.
43:29
I don't know how long they're gonna be able to withstand, especially with the whole Manny Clase situation as well. And for the Miami Marlins, since beginning of the month of June, top 10 team in terms of bullpen ERA.
43:39
That seven and a half total, I think that it is a little bit too low, so I did take a shot on the over. But getting plus money on the Marlins, I took them on the money line. Wow. All right, Greg, I lied. 30 seconds.
43:48
Is- do you- have you made any college basketball futures yet? I have not made any college basketball futures. Really not a futures guy.
43:56
I'm looking a little bit more at the game to game perspective of things, but we're breaking it down every single day on the Coast to Coast Hoops podcast. Have not missed an episode in over 2,000 days.
44:05
Coast to- not missed an episode. What? Wait, 2,000 consecutive days? Yeah, last time I missed an episode was in 2019 before COVID. Wow. Man is a machine. I didn't know that. Are you serious? Oh my God. Serious.
44:21
How do you have time to date, Greg? Gotta do Coast to Coast. I find time. He finds time. The machine. Gotta make that. Greg Pearson. Thank you, Greg. [upbeat music]
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