Search
Login
Sign Up
Aug 13, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 13, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 13, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
46:43
1×
Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
0:16
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, Let's Go Places.
0:59
[static hisses] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
1:11
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Clay Beidelman. Yes, sir. What's happening? Not much.
1:24
How we doing? You got, uh, week one preseason fever? I do, man. I got, I got like four bets going tonight. Let's go. Do you really? I think so. Four? I think so. Wow. That's awesome. Uh, one, two... I have three tonight.
1:36
Four in total for week one. Three go tonight. Oh, three happen to be today. Yep. All right. Well, we'll talk about that.
1:40
We'll go through, uh, for, there's six games today in the National Football League preseason, week number one.
1:44
We'll go through the, uh, the basics of who's playing, who's not, in terms of starters, how long they're expected to play, that kind of thing.
1:50
Again, once they went from four weeks to three weeks, the difference in how teams decided to approach this became that much more vast.
1:59
Because usually, again, when it was a four-week arc, we're playing everybody week three, we're sitting everybody week four. It was like a, it was kind of a scriptish kind of thing.
2:06
Now it's every team figuring a different way to do this. You know what, though? Like, doesn't it feel like it should be more obvious now? Like, you used to have that, like, it was, like, always week three.
2:15
Some would start a little early in week two, right? Like, now it just feels like everybody week two. It should be starters week two, play half, and then get out of here. Don't see them again.
2:25
We'll talk about all six today. We'll figure, we'll figure out how everybody's thinking it through. JVT's gonna join us on the show this hour. Jonathan Von Tobel. Talk college football.
2:34
He's got picks from the College Football Betting Guide that he will share with us, and, uh, season longs. Looking forward to that.
2:40
Uh, National Football League with him, Major League Baseball with him, everything we can, uh, catch up with JVT. Co-host of Money Moves here on the network with Stormy.
2:48
Feels like it's, uh, been a minute since we've had him on, actually. It has been- Right?... a minute and a half, I believe. I have on my watch. Minute and a half.
2:55
And then, uh, another co-host of another great show here on the network, Prop Points co-host Jeff Erickson. Uh, talk Major League Baseball and National Football League with us a little later.
3:04
Uh, one of my low-key favorite guests. We don't often- Jeff's awesome. Yeah... we don't often, uh, praise Jeff as much as- Mm-hmm... we should praise Jeff. Mm-hmm. Always solid. Looking forward to talking to him.
3:16
Uh, the co-founder of Rotowire. How about that for a flex? Yeah, man. Which has been an institution in the fantasy and betting world now for how many years? Well said. Decades. Institution. Uh, he is an institution.
3:29
And then of course it is Thursday. You know what that means. Unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger. Usually it's Zach and Crack, uh, but Zach is on a trip. He's off, uh, gallivanting around Europe.
3:37
I believe gallivanting is the correct word. But Bill Krackomberger later, Unscripted, um- And brought the kid. I did talk with Zach yesterday.
3:45
Oh, I thought, I thought you said Bill got- [laughs] All of a sudden I was like, "Crack brought the kid? What are you talking about?" [laughs] Z- Oh, Zach did. Yeah. Yes. Yeah, yeah.
3:52
Yeah, they have a little g- I mean, they have a little child. They're, they're not gonna leave the child behind, I wouldn't think. Well, you know, thought maybe parents or something.
3:56
Oh, the grandparents might have been able to take him. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Thought it would... No. No. Take him. Nah, maybe they don't wanna. Take him with them. Yeah. Um, Crack and I have a lot to talk about.
4:03
We're gonna... Uh, by the way, Derek Stevens made an appearance on Crack's podcast, uh- He did... which- I, I actually listened to some of that. Yep...
4:10
which, which Bill and, uh, John Orlando d- do from right here at the Circa- Mm-hmm... uh, at the sports book here behind us.
4:16
And, uh, Derek w- a- and by the way, I was, Derek was kind enough to spend 15 minutes solo with me yesterday in the parking lot talking about stuff. Um, just tremendous guy. Super smart.
4:28
Um, but Derek, you know, Derek went on Twitter yesterday and said some stuff people didn't like. I, I have opinions on, on all kinds of things. We'll talk, uh, what Derek...
4:36
We'll, we'll talk about, among other things, and I know we're unscripted generally, but because it was on Crack's pod, we will talk about Derek's thoughts on contests, on prediction markets.
4:44
We'll get into all that stuff. So I, I have things to say also. I thought it was, um, a, an eye-opening comment, I'll leave Crack to talk about it, but a eye-opening comment about how much it costs to run these contests.
4:54
Yes. Right? Yes. 'Cause I don't know that I'd ever heard that or seen that before. No, that was very transparent. Mm-hmm. Very transparent. Um, so looking forward to that a little later on in the show.
5:04
Uh, Unscripted with the Crack Man exclusively here on a numbers game. Tennis. Yesterday it's a, yesterday winner. Hope everybody played Elena Rybakina as a short dog against Coco Gauff.
5:14
As Elena Rybakina has been doing seemingly this entire tournament, she drops a set, she comes back, she wins it in three. She did that against Coco last night. So the finals are set. This is, this is
5:24
ev- k- exhibit A as to how tennis is not, let's say, the NFL. Mm-hmm. This, these Canadian tournaments got so backed up with weather that now this 1000 is- Oh, God... bled into the 1000 in Cincinnati.
5:37
They're both one and a half week events. So, so, like, how do they do that?
5:41
[laughs] Well, so they take Rybakina and Swiatek, just the, the simple answer is, and their m- their first round matches will be at the very end, right? Okay. That's th- their respective first round matches.
5:51
That's the best they can do with it. But generally speaking, when- I mean, is there a cutoff point, though? You know, like, golf has a cutoff point, right? Where it's like- Well, let's say-...
5:58
"We gotta get to the next tournament."
5:59
Yeah, I mean, let's say it, it was a torrential downpour today in, in both Toronto and Montreal, and then Ben Shelton and Brandon Nakashima, who upset Rafa and Hodara yesterday, let's say th- they just have to s- stay behind.
6:11
Oh, that's crazy. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it becomes problematic. For sure it becomes problematic But they'd figure it out. It would just be awkward.
6:17
So what we have today, again, I just mentioned the two finals, men's and ladies' side in Canada, which again is the thousand that precedes the thousand, the Cincinnati tournament, that precedes the US Open, the final slam of the year, and then it's football, baby, regular season.
6:30
That's how this works. Uh, today, I think Swiatek is correctly priced as a favorite against Rybakina. She's about minus 135. I have it at about minus 145. Wasn't enough for me to pull the trigger on a, on a bet.
6:43
Uh, but again, Iga trying to win her eighth different 1,000 tournament of her career. Eight out of 10, this would be, um, in terms of different ones. She's obviously won multiple Romes. She's won multiple Dohas.
6:56
She's, it, it's just, it's an incredible career. We'll see if she can pull off Canada, and as I said a couple, uh, matches ago against Kasak, the brain seemed to unlock.
7:05
Iga unlocked, so we'll see if she can get it done against Rybakina, but I don't have a play in that. I don't have a play in Ben Shelton versus, uh, Brandon Nakashima in Montreal.
7:12
I think Ben Shelton is the correct favorite, and Ben Shelton is trying to win back-to-back Canadian Opens, which would be his only two 1,000 wins of his career- Hmm... both in Canada back to back.
7:23
So let's see if Ben Shelton can pull that off. One of his more likely surfaces to do it on, right? Oh, for sure. Or locations, I should say. I mean- Definitely his most likely surface.
7:31
Yeah, and his serve is just, is, is built for it. Um, tennis though today in Cincinnati. I'll be on, uh, radio in Cincinnati tomorrow talking about this.
7:40
Or, uh, no, I don't know if it's a radio show, if it's a You- I don't even know what it is. I thought it was TV. Maybe it's TV. I don't know. Oh, am I doing TV? I should probably know that. I think it's TV.
7:46
You should, yeah, you should probably know that. I should probably know that. Oh, it's TV. Sorry, guys. Uh, I do have plays though in Cincinnati.
7:53
Two on the men's side, two on the ladies' side, and again, with the scheduling, Kelly, I made a bet for tomorrow also thinking that it was today, but it's not. So today, two on the men's side.
8:02
Adrian Mannarino is a plus 152 dog against Denis Shapovalov.
8:07
Uh, Shapovalov's, b- speaking of great services, right, he's, he's a hard court guy, but Mannarino is the ultimate hard court guy, and he's an older player who can really sort of mess with timing and frustrate other players.
8:19
I got Mannarino at plus 152. But- Shapovalov's a Canadian, right? He is. Oh, yeah, s- sneaky Canadians on tour. I'll always try to pick them out. How often do I ask you about Canadians? Shapovalov is sneaky everything.
8:30
He's born in Israel, not Jewish- Really?... Canadian. Yeah. Wow, that is, that is fascinating. Okay. Uh, Martin, Martin Landaluce is the big dog of the day, taking him at plus 230 versus Jack Draper.
8:43
Love Landaluce's game on hard courts. And then on the ladies' side, a couple favorites. Diane Parry, your girl Diane Parry. That's right, Diane. Diane, Diane Parry is how you really pronounce it.
8:52
Uh, minus 105 versus Caroline Dolehide, and then Taylor Townsend, our girl who we were just winning match after match on at plus prices over the vacation, uh, versus Camila Osorio.
9:01
Tomorrow I, I already made a bet on Greeksborough over Botic van de Zandschulp. Well, that's, that's an all-time name matchup right there. I mean, Ta- Talon I've always had up there as one of, one of the best. Yeah.
9:13
I mean, Talon Greeksborough, both parts are amazing. But then Botic van de Zandschulp, that's, that's pretty good too. Van de Zandschulp. Yeah, that's pretty good too. Yeah.
9:21
I think I'm gonna play the, uh, the old Pa- Paul card game with you and at least tail you on Diane and Taylor Townsend 'cause they're play- they're playing two people I've never heard of before.
9:30
Well, if I'm you, I play the bigger dogs, but okay, sure. Caroline Dolehide. Caroline Dolehide. Camila Osor- Osorio. I don't remember seeing those names. Osorio.
9:37
Oh yeah, Osorio's had, we've bet on her through the years- Oh, okay... a lot. Dolehide probably never. Yeah. But she's been on tour forever as well. So Mannarino and Landaluce on the men's side as dogs.
9:46
Parry and Townsend on the ladies' side as favorites today. Baseball, uh, s- a little setback yesterday. The l- the, uh, I was gonna say the line. The Tigers beat the, uh, Guardians two nights ago six-four.
9:56
They take a six-four loss yesterday against the Guardians, so they fall to seven and three.
10:01
The nice part about that is we have a Thursday, so they get to make up some ground, uh, today on the Rays if they can w- win the rubber match against the Guardians and get within, uh, two wins of the Rays, who are at the top of August at ten and one.
10:15
Get 'em out of Sac Town already, Jesus. Rays are ten and one. The Cubbies, our second choice, was, are nine and two after another win yesterday over the Natti- uh, Nationals.
10:26
Padres, the sneaky, uh, nine and three, and then yesterday the Braves and the Blue Jays snuck ahead of our Tigers at eight and three and eight and four. So Tigers, uh, the rubber match this morning against the Guardians.
10:37
Hey, just, just win it. Win another series. That will make them undefeated in terms of series thus far in the month. Get to eight and three.
10:44
You'll only be two wins back heading into the weekend with a home three-game set against the White Sox, and remember, beyond our bet, these are huge for the Tigers in terms of their playoff position, not just wild card, but obviously against the Guardians and White Sox division.
10:56
Mm-hmm. Yeah, game, uh, lines today. That is Cleveland about minus 120. Detroit plus 110. Total set at eight for that game. Golf update, sir? Golf update. Tommy Fleetwood on a tear early at the FedEx St.
11:11
Jude Championship. I think you got screwed up by this the other way, other day. By the way, it screws me up every single year, the FedEx St. Jude Championship as part of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Yes.
11:21
Like, it's just, it's a little weird. Did I get it screwed up yesterday? No, no, no, I feel like you took, you took a pause the other day to, like, make sure you had it right. Oh, yeah.
11:27
I'm like, I, I do that all the time. Yeah. And you're like, think- 'Cause you have to, we're talking about points in the arc of- There's that too. Yeah. The FedEx Cup points in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
11:35
Uh, Piercy, Coody, and Tommy Fleetwood both four under par. Tommy only through four holes though, so four under through four. Piercy and Coody, uh, through eight. Uh, they have a three-shot lead on the rest of the field.
11:45
Uh, this is only about, only about a third of the guys have gotten started here. Uh, at one under par you have Harris English, Maverick McNealy, Sepp Straka, Thorbjorn Olesen, Gary Woodland, some notables there.
11:58
And, uh, s- let's see, some notables over par. Jackson Cowen two over par. Uh, the worst one out early on the course. Who am I, who am I rooting for for you?
12:06
Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, and, uh, who else did I get on here? Collin Morikawa and Sam Burns. Thank you, Danny. I knew I was forgetting someone. Danny from the rafters. Yeah. From the rafters, Danny Higgins.
12:17
Hideki would feel good 'cause this has been like... four weeks in a row where I've been going back to Adekike, and he's been pla- he's been, I mean, I think it's a good example.
12:24
He's playing really well, cashing some tickets. That's nice. Just not hitting that outright, you know? Wise man once said, "Cashing tickets is what it's all about." That he did.
12:33
Shout out, shout out- He also s- he says it all the time when we swear, too. Shout out Brent. Oh, yes he does. [laughs] Randomly he'll come out and scream it out of no- That's right.
12:40
[laughs] Shout out to Brent Musburger, by the way. For real. It's been a while. It's been too long. We'll come back, we'll talk about all six preseason games today in the National Football League.
12:48
Let's do it next on A Numbers Game at VSiN. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:04
Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
13:11
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:17
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:23
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:33
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
13:40
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
13:49
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. $30 million in guaranteed prices, no rake.
14:04
Cash in this football season in Las Vegas with [clears throat] pardon me, three Circa Sports contests. Emotional about it. Entry starting at $1,000, all with no rake. That means every dollar stays in the prize pool.
14:14
Circa Million, 18 weeks, 128 ways to win. That's all with all the quarterlies and booby prizes and all that, and all the, uh, rankings, one through whatever in each of those. Mm-hmm.
14:23
Circa Survivor, pick one winner each week, last one standing wins. And of course, Circa Gran Dicimo for the high rollers, $100,000 entry.
14:30
And by the way, the numbers on these that people track from year to year, all looking ahead of pace, man. Oh, yeah. Yep. Enter in Nevada, play from anywhere. 30 million guaranteed. Visit circussports.com for details.
14:43
We get tweets, Beating The Book. Kyle in Vegas, uh, he's, [laughs] he's actually tagged me in this. He's actually talking to Dr. Bob. He says, "I just went to buy a package for college football.
14:52
Hearing you on, uh, on Beating The Book," he means on A Numbers Game, "is like Christmas morning. We don't have it this year? Damn it," he says, "college football will never be the same," broken heart emoji.
15:01
Well, Bob will be on to talk NFL, but yeah, he's, he's done with college football, he's done with college basketball. The end of an era. So hard to say goodbye to yesterday. Nick Kendhammer, "Few days behind.
15:13
How are people complaining about free picks even if they aren't getting all of them? They're free hate Twitter." Oh, that's, uh, talking about Todd again also, uh, who was kind enough to join us yesterday.
15:23
Xavier82, "Winner, winner, chicken dinner. Let's go." He had Brabocino with us yesterday. Uh, Brendan, "Why is there no adjusted lines available," I'm, I'm editing while I'm reading, "for NFL preseason games as of yet?"
15:37
Adjusted lines? Like alt lines? Like alt lines. I don't know what book you're talking about. I don't know. I, that'll vary from... Pre-season offerings will certainly vary from book to book. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
15:47
Trojan Ram, "Yo, I tried giving Magnus Farrell a listen. I will admit the man is talented, but not my cup of tea. Had to cleanse my ears with some Slayer afterwards." [laughs] Who was that tweet from? Trojan Ram.
15:59
You know what? I forgot to text you yesterday, Gil. [laughs] I, but I, I followed through with what I said. As soon as I got in the car, Danny and I did our usual walk to the parking garage.
16:07
We had a quick chat, quick chat in the parking garage. Yeah. Hopped in the car, threw on Magnus Farrell- Yeah... and drove out of here, and I thought to myself, "This kid's got pipes. This kid's got pipes."
16:15
And I got to, like, song two and three, and I was like, "Just not for me." Oh, I- "Just not for me"... I, I have nothing to do with past the one song. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I have not heard anything else.
16:22
I, but I put on the song you recommended. It wa- it was impressive. It's fantastic. Kid, kid sounds nice, but, uh- Q- Q-tips for all of you if you don't like that song.
16:31
Schronski, John Osher, "Hey, Gil, you are my low-key favorite host on VSiN. Love your show." Thank you. Why, why low-key? Why, why can't you shout it from the, from the rooftop? Uh, no, I'm kidding. Make a t-shirt.
16:41
He said, he said, "Pivot to, uh, Zach," he said, "generally a very smart guy and solid capper. I can't think of anything less EV than bringing your one-year-old overseas." [laughs] "Love all those flights from Phoenix.
16:51
That is not vacation." Uh- Oh, man... LFC Title Records, "Gil was right about Magnus Farrell's song being a banger. However, I think he's wrong about Magnus being Will Ferrell's son.
17:00
He sounds like the son of Pharrell, not Will Ferrell." True. And he looks like the son of, uh, Uncle Joey. That's who I figured out yesterday. He does, from Full House. Yes.
17:09
We were sitting here after the show yesterday and I was like, "This, this looks like another famous person from the '90s."
17:14
And, uh, Shrek McFee, "Any thoughts on placing some men's opens futures in hopes Sinner and Carlitos are out?" You know, it's, it's a good thought, but I think Sinner's playing. I really do. I think he's totally playing.
17:26
Uh, we'll get to the other tweets here coming up. Uh- And stop ruining are we sure questions, tweeters, okay? Oh, we have are we sure coming up later. My bad. I got to, I got to live edit now.
17:35
[laughs] Well, I hope- don't like... Kelly's got to do work. I gotta edit, geez. Kelly's got work. All right, let's go through these one by one. We'll see if you have a bet, where you don't, where you do. Lions, Bengals.
17:46
Um, right now, these are all updated here, Danny. Six and a half point favorite are the Bengals. Total set at 38 and a half.
17:53
Um, the Bengals head coach Zach Taylor telling reporters this week, Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Dexter Lawrence, Sexy Dexy- Mm-hmm... they're all starting tonight. Limited series, however.
18:04
Roughly one to two opening drives or about eight to 16 total snaps, but that announcement alone is what's, has this at six and a half. Meanwhile, the Lions mostly benched. Jared Goff will not play.
18:15
Uh, you'll see a lot of the Lions backups. Undrafted rookie Luke Altmyer expected to start at quarterback, with recent addition Josh Dobbs also seeing action. Yeah. Any play in this game? Nothing for me here.
18:24
I mean, look, I think this is one, as you just went through, Bengals will have the advantage early.
18:28
They're throwing all the star po- power out there, see if you can get a score in the first drive or two, and then everybody will hit the bench, and I don't...
18:34
I don't know about you, these are two guys and, and, and two coaches that, uh, when we talk about the coaches that care, coaches that don't care, these are not exactly two of the guys at the top of the list that are caring about pre-season.
18:43
Packers at Steelers also starts at 7:00 PM Eastern. Jordan Love will get the start for the Packers, although Matt LaFleur said he reserved the right to change his mind. Did you hear that?
18:53
He's like, he s- he said he sees value in getting- [laughs] I did not see that part, actually... yeah, he s- he sees value in getting mentally prepared to go play a game.
19:01
So he left himself an out, though Jordan Love is expected to start, and, uh, he has started, I think, the last couple years with these games as well, if I'm not mistaken.
19:09
I don't know about that part, th- don't hold me to that. But anyway, Matt LaFleur reserving the right to change his mind, but it looks like Jordan Love will start.
19:15
Most healthy starters will likely play only one to two series, once again- Mm-hmm... for the Pack. Steelers, most murky of all these teams playing tonight in terms of their plan.
19:23
Head coach Mike McCarthy stated, uh, he has left it as a game time decision, uh, about Aaron Rodgers, though Rodgers considered l- unlikely to see heavy action if he plays at all.
19:32
Um, McCarthy noted that if any frontline players do take the field, they'll likely only go a series or two before giving way to depth pieces and rookies.
19:39
A spotlight will mostly be on Will Howard and Drew Aller at quarterback for the Steelers. Yeah, I got a Packers bet in the other day, did take them at, uh, plus one.
19:48
I think, I w- I mean, I would still be on that side of things. I think with what they've got, with the starters running out there, and then, yeah, it's, it...
19:54
I know it's been back and forth on this Rodgers situation, but, like, well, you and I talked about this yesterday. At this point in his career- What do we, what do we, what do we do?...
20:01
like, he, I mean, if he, if it's already been a thing of him- I felt e-... not really playing- Felt even s-... why would we do it now? I felt even stupid reading that sentence.
20:06
[laughs] I, it's, I mean, but r- remind her, beginning of camp, McCarthy comes out, he's like, "I'd love to see him 30 to 50 snaps in the preseason." Like, I don't think that's happening. Like- Colts-Pats- It's-...
20:15
half hour later, 7:30 Eastern. Colts deading, uh, dedicating week one to testing backup signal callers. Anthony Richardson, Kelly's boy, and Riley Leonard. Daniel Jones is gonna rest to avoid injuries.
20:27
Yeah, he should probably do that. Well- Uh, expected to sit out, most, most core veterans expected to sit out the majority of the game in favor of second and third stringers.
20:33
Patriots expected to play most of their starters, uh, or not expected, pardon me, to play most of their starters- Mm-hmm... in tonight's preseason game against the Colts. Um, no Drake May, he'll sit out. Tommy DeVito-
20:44
There you go... getting the start for the Pats. Hey, man. Colts favored by two and a half. Tom, uh, Tommy does have some live NFL reps, so he, you know- He do... can't blame him for that.
20:52
I mean, eh, that's something when you're looking at these quarterbacks, right? Or who are some of the backups we like to make fun of but might feast on third and fourth stringers- Yeah... uh, against the defense.
21:01
I'm on the Colts. This is part of a teaser I had from when these opened. So Colts up to seven and a half when they were point and a half dogs. Chargers up to seven and a half.
21:11
I mean, th- I think this one just comes down to really what, what do you think about Anthony Richardson?
21:15
And this is not as, I, I'm not as high as on him as I used to be a couple years ago, but this is the showcase weeks for Anthony Richardson as they're still trying to trade this guy- I know, I know... you would think.
21:25
So- And, and I'm not saying this flippantly 'cause we got reports that he may not have perfect vision. I hope he can see okay. Me t- me too. But as far as, I mean, what's the, what's the game plan?
21:34
How open is the playbook for An- like, man, I would actually think this stuff is pretty open as far as what they're willing to do with him, just 'cause you are trying to showcase and trade him away.
21:43
So it would still be leaning to the Colts side for me. Chargers- And lean over. Chargers-Texans. Texans favored by one and a half, total's at 36 and a half.
21:51
Uh, Mike McDaniel, first, uh, time spotting him as the OC for the Chargers. Justin Herbert will not play, of course.
21:58
Um, Jim Harbaugh stating that roughly 15 veteran starters will sit out the game entirely, with backup quarterbacks Trey Lance and D.J. Uiagalelei splitting the snaps. There you go.
22:09
[laughs] Uh, and the Texans starting, uh, starters resting. Core veterans, regular starters like C.J. Stroud will watch from the sideline.
22:16
Texans will heavily feature rookies, bubble players, journeymen fighting for a spot for the 53-man roster. So we'll get some Davis Mills and we'll get some Graham Mertz. Oh. [laughs] Don't you- Fun...
22:28
don't you think you've seen enough of Davis Mills by now? But okay, sure. Well- And Gr- Graham Mertz might actually, uh, need the reps a little bit more.
22:35
Uh, yeah, this was the other side of that teaser I had with, uh, the Colts. This, the l- line really hasn't budged all week since it's opened. The total sitting about the same as well, I believe.
22:45
Just note on some of these, some of the totals, which I didn't end up betting any of the, any for week one, but there, there's a couple of these that keep going up, including this next game, Cardinals and Raiders.
22:53
Cardinals-Raiders. Um, Raiders favored by two and a half. The total's 41 and a half. That's, like, a real game total. W- w- up to 42 and a half? There's a 43 on the bo- aboard I'm staring at.
23:04
Well, here's part of the reason. Cardinals are going with Jacoby Brissett, and healthy top roster pieces will get early series work.
23:10
They're expected to play their starters for a very limited time, about one to two maximum series, but playing nonetheless at Allegiant Stadium here in Vegas tonight.
23:16
Uh, Mike LaFleur, their head coach, confirming that Brissett and other main first team players will see action. Top draft pick Jeremy Love expected to make his debut.
23:24
Um, Gardner Minshew will get run, and Carson Beck, who was 15 of 19 for 188 in the Hall of Fame game and one touchdown, he will get some, uh, some reps.
23:33
Of course, the Raiders' Clint Kubiak saying, "We're going Kirk Cousins, then we're going Fernando Mendoza."
23:39
First string unit will see action, though their time will be limited to a brief planned number of snaps or series.
23:44
Uh, the entire offensive lineman, though, Colton Miller, Spencer Burford, Tyler Linderbaum, Jackson Powers-Johnson, D.J. Glaze, they're all expected to line up- Wow...
23:52
alongside Ashton Jeanty to begin this game with Kirk Cousins. Uh, no one knows about Max Crosby's expected availability, but why would you play him? Yeah, for real.
24:00
I, I, I was actually thinking that's where you were going with that offensive line note, though. I'm sur- surprised they're rolling out all those guys. All those guys. Especially like Linderbaum, so. Yeah.
24:07
Um, I mean, look, this is the game of the night, right? No bet for me, though.
24:10
This is, you're seeing a lot of the starters go on the Cardinals side, and you just ro- rattled off the n- list of guys going for the Raiders. So as far as watchability tonight, th- this'll probably be game number one.
24:20
That's the game of the night. Mm-hmm. Little Fernando Mendoza. Yeah. Uh, we left out one.
24:23
We'll get to that at the, uh, start of the next break, and then, uh, JVT will join us to talk all of his college foot- well, not all of them. We'll leave some for the guide.
24:32
But some of his college football season-long plays, talk baseball with him, NFL. Maybe he has some preseason plays. He does. All right. Jonathan Vontobel on the other side.
24:42
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:59
Football is back tonight in earnest, and some of the best betting opportunities of the year start with the NFL preseason. Sign up for VSiN Pro today.
25:06
Get both our NFL and college football betting guides packed with team previews, power ratings, proven betting systems, and best bets from VSiN's sharpest minds to help you bet football smarter all season long.
25:15
You'll also get daily best bets, real-time betting splits, AI-powered prop projections, including our new MLB player props and total picks, plus 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app.
25:24
Start today for just $9.99 to get a full year and save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
25:32
Kelly, before we get to, uh, JVT, one more game tonight, uh, the last of the ones we didn't get through, Titans-Niners. Uh, Niners not planning to play their starters against the Titans.
25:43
Uh, head coach Kyle Shanahan stating there won't be many starters playing. "Succinctly," he says, as the team already got heavy work during a joint practice earlier in the week.
25:51
So Purdy sitting, Trent Williams sitting, Fred Warner, all expected to sit out. McCaffrey, Nick Bosa remaining sideline, nursing injuries. Uh, so rookies, backups, bubble players, majority of playing time.
26:02
But the Titans, Robert Saleh confirming all the healthy players will be active, and, uh, starters will play more than just a single opening series.
26:10
Cam Ward expected to log multiple early series to gain live reps in the new system. And, um, yeah, that's confirmed by a couple, uh, sources, and, uh, Carnell Tate, we'll get our first look at him as well.
26:22
So- Yeah, scooped this one up on open. Didn't really know what the, uh, what the Titans game plan was gonna be at that point, but, you know, Niners injuries were already racking up last Friday when I bet this.
26:32
So, uh, this is, this has moved. This-- I think this is the biggest mover on the board, uh, here for week one. This opened 49ers two and a half point favorites, now they're six-point dogs.
26:41
Um, so yeah, I, I'm on the Titans, but it's moved eight points from where I bet it. We're gonna start to get at least two or three people every day that are like, "Substation.
26:49
Can't be t- can't be told they need to ever like- I s- so I fired up, uh, uh, well, Pablo Torre finds out who, uh, has an episode on in here this morning. He's doing that? Yeah, it's kind of frustrating.
26:56
Now, you know, you know I love Pablo. There's a cou- there's a couple that are just not as great as some of the other hits. This is one I would say so far. I tell you- I haven't learned anything yet.
27:04
I tell you, Pablo texted praise after my hot dog breakdown. [laughs] Great. He's impressed by the hot dog breakdown. I forgot about that. John- What ever, what ever happened to that controversy? Nothing.
27:14
The sticking plate controversy. Nothing. It just went away. It just went away completely. It is j- it is a scandal that no one wants to delve into beyond what we did. Man, they, they're out there- I was very, I-...
27:23
they're just stacking plates and getting away with it I was very proud of that deep dive. I spent- It was impressive... I spent 10 minutes watching the single camera. [laughs] It's impressive, man.
27:31
I'm telling you, she only put down 34. Man, the stacking plate, p- uh, plates police. What's her name? Mi- You watch... Miko? What was her name again? Miko something. Uh, Mikisudo. Miki- Mikisudo, thank you.
27:42
Jonathan Vontobel joins us now. He's the co-host of Money Moves each and every, uh, weekday here, Monday through Friday, that he co-hosts with Stormy Bonnetoni. It starts at 11:00 AM Pacific. That's 2:00 PM Eastern.
27:54
JVT joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @meJVT. What's happening? Look at this guy. Svelte, looks great. How many, how many pounds have you lost?
28:03
Uh, we're down about, like, 67 pounds, so, uh, we have been cruising. Uh, although I've been thinking about starting steroids, uh, in all seriousness, because, you know, these last few pounds have been kind of stubborn.
28:14
Wanna get a little jacked, and so why not go the, uh- [laughs]... synthetic way? So I think I'm... Uh, you guys laugh. Like, I'm being serious. Like, I have thought about steroids- Let's go full in on Bobby...
28:21
and I, I think I might. Y- yeah, you know what I mean? Yeah. JVT's gonna come in here and rub the clear on his thighs before a broadcast. You better watch out, man.
28:28
Every time he wa- he walks in already he looks like that, man. You look- Looking great... no, s- seriously though, like, you've cut, like, five to 10 years off your appearance, doesn't he, Ian? Mm-hmm. Hasn't he? Mm-hmm.
28:37
Yeah, you look like you're f- four- I appreciate it... 14 years old. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
28:40
Was that-- I, I will say this, uh, that's a good thing, because I was out and about one night and I was told, um, this was, like, three or four months ago, like, "Oh, you look like you're, like, f- I, I would guess you're 40."
28:49
And I was like, "Mm, I'm 35," so we gotta keep going. [laughs] Yeah. I looked younger than my age- Yeah... till about 43, and then- [laughs]... it caught up quick. Um- Y- you gotta stop saying that. It's scaring me.
28:58
[laughs] All right, John, uh, we were just talking about, we'll get to your college football.
29:01
You were, you, you covered or you tackled the SEC and the Mountain West most prominently in the college football betting guide. Wanna save that for the next segment.
29:09
We were just talking about the NFL preseason beginning with six games tonight. Do you have any plays on tonight's slate? Yeah, there's a couple.
29:16
Um, one of the games you guys were just talking about, I was listening to you, we'll go Raiders and, uh, Cardinals first.
29:21
But Raiders first half minus the half point, I think it seems somewhat easy, but kinda sniffing around a bit and looking at some of the press conferences from Kubiak, he seems to maybe have that first-time head coach sickness in the sense of he actually might be game planning for this thing.
29:34
[laughs] So actually throwing out some complex concepts and trying to go out and potentially win this game. Um, he was asked the other day about Fernando Mendoza playing behind the starting offensive line.
29:42
He kinda hemmed and hawed, and was like, "Yeah, you know, we got a plan." I think they're probably, 'cause you guys were talking about this, the starting offensive line's gonna be out there.
29:50
They're gonna play in front of Kirk Cousins, and I think they're also gonna play in front of Fernando Mendoza- Mm... to give him the best opportunity possible too.
29:54
So outside of just the starters playing and the game planning there, I think they're also going to set it up for Mendoza to have some success at home here in front of the fans too.
30:03
So I think all of that leads to a half point laying that with the Raiders in the first half.
30:07
I understand that Lafleur's gonna play his starters too, but I kinda trust that Kubiak's actually going to go and put some stuff out there, some complex stuff, to really score some points and have some success.
30:16
Uh, and the other is I'm just gonna kinda push back on the notion of the market thinking that this Bengals team is just gonna come out and absolutely blow the doors off the Lions.
30:24
You know, it's interesting, and you get this dynamic in these preseason games. First half line, six, or excuse me, for the game, six and a half, seven. For the first half it's like six and a half, seven. That's right.
30:33
I, I, I don't... Yeah, right. Like I just, I understand that the Bengals are gonna play their starters, but I think sometimes, and, like Kelly has done this a couple times now, right?
30:41
The bettors that bet this are laying three and a half with the Cincinnati Bengals because that's when it opened. They're not laying six and a half, seven.
30:48
It seems somewhat aggressive to just assume the Bengals are gonna come out here and roll, considering we just don't know what the role of those starters are gonna be. Mm.
30:54
Joe Burrow could play and fulfill the decree that he is starting the game, and then hand it off six straight times and then head off to the bench. And I just think that we're kind of a little too far here.
31:03
I understand the Lions aren't gonna play any of their guys. They're a little beat up too. They're gonna see their two young quarterbacks, or not young quarterbacks, but unknowns, right?
31:10
Altmyer and Dobbs, who's only been there for a couple of days. But I'm just kinda pushing back on the number here. So Lions for the game plus seven, and Raiders minus the half point for the first half.
31:18
Dobbs is fantastic when you only give him a day or two. I was just gonna say- [laughs] I like, I like that we're docking the Lions like- Yeah... points for that. It's like this is Dobbs' perfect situation.
31:26
The situation knows nothing. Um, there's a couple things there that I love that you said, which I wanna just seize on, which is the, the affliction of new coaches who handle the pre- [laughs]...
31:35
season in a way they ought not to is sort of the implication. The greatest example of that ev- ever, Steve Spurrier when coaching Washington. Before the 2002 season, they went to Osaka.
31:45
They had a game against the Niners in Osaka. Famously, Spurrier was asked the question, "Hey, what do you have to say about the pe- uh, to the people in Osaka?" Before they traveled.
31:52
And Spurrier goes, "Uh, tell them I'll see them in Osaka." [laughs] That's the kind of articulate guy he was. But he, they, throughout the whole... He, he did everything, like throughout, whatever his whole playbook is.
32:03
We're just gonna pitch and catch it. They beat the Niners 38 to seven, right? Danny Wuerffel throwing the ball around the yard, and the Niners just laughing at him the whole time. Like, "Okay, yeah, do your thing."
32:12
So I, I think you're right. That's a big thing in pre-seasons.
32:15
And also the, just a betting nuance to what you were saying about the, you know, the pro bettors get this number at such a better number than what exists now.
32:22
Pre-season football, and let's just acknowledge, again, we are of the, we are of the mindset it is gr- those who handle pre-season seriously, you can make a lot of money. It is not a degenerate activity.
32:32
But it is also true that if you lose on something like that you're talking about, like if you make a bet on the Bengals, you're laying too much, it's also one of the betting things of the sports betting calendar that you can feel so stupid about if you lose.
32:46
Yeah. And you'll recognize it as it's happening. You're like, "I'm so, why did I bet this? This is so s- like I lost my money on this of all things." So I just think those are a couple interesting things.
32:55
I, I would also add real quick, um, Zach Taylor told us last week that the starters were gonna play. Yes.
33:00
So it's not like this was like new information, and the line came out, and the oddsmakers were shocked by the fact that Joe Burrow was gonna be out there.
33:06
[laughs] He told us last week, like I think it was last Wednesday. He's like, "Yeah, we got a plan to play those guys," and then again reiterated it, and the market really freaked out.
33:13
And obviously these markets are gonna move, 'cause when sharp guys are coming in and betting it you're gonna move pretty quickly.
33:17
But I would argue that that initial opener of three and a half had quite a bit of the, "Hey, the starters are gonna play," kinda baked into it too. Yeah. And that's also my line of thinking. Yeah.
33:25
We, we even noticed that during prime time action when like l- legalization, legalization had spread, how people react so- Yeah... the general public reacts days after news happens. Mm-hmm. So that's another example.
33:36
Yeah, c- coach says something at practice- Yeah... two days before, then a starting- Why is it moving now?... a starting lineup comes out and it moves- Yeah... and it's like, "Hey, he said this was gonna happen."
33:44
Uh, John, what, give us a JVT season-long NFL thought or bet that you feel is, uh, very different from conventional wisdom. Ooh, very different from conventional wisdom. Okay, um- I'll settle for different...
33:58
this ac- okay, I think this is, yeah, I think this is somewhat different. Um, especially because Stormy feels so strongly about it, and I feel other people because of this team's history feel strongly about it too.
34:07
I have a sneaking suspicion the Browns can go over their win total. Wow. Ooh. I think th- uh, yeah. I, so I think this team defensively is very good. I, I don't think there's really any question about that.
34:17
Even with the loss of Myles Garrett, I think versus, uh, at least an adequate enough replacement. He's not gonna g- set the record for sacks, but he's a good defensive end that I think is going to help them out.
34:25
We know how talented they are at other positions. I, I just, I can't, I keep saying this, and I know the reports out of camp haven't been great.
34:31
But I will remind everybody that the reports coming out of camp for Patrick Mahomes before his first season were awful too, and he turned out to be okay. And I'm not saying Watson's going to be Mahomes. He's all right.
34:38
I just think that we make a lot out of these, these training camp reports.
34:42
When these guys are testing things out, they're running stuff, they're seeing what they can do, there's all sorts of different nuances to what they're trying.
34:48
I think we have to potentially be ready for the fact that Deshaun Watson could come back and just be an average quarterback.
34:54
And if he's an average quarterback, I think this team has something that is better than what the market thinks.
34:59
I mean, we're heavily shaded to the under here, and I just think that in a division that might be a little bit more competitive than we expect- That the Browns might be able to get to that six win mark if Deshaun Watson just shows up and is average for the Cleveland Browns, because that defense is good enough.
35:12
And I think that is something that I have been, I've been scared of. Like Joker on the couch, right, in that Joaquin Phoenix movie. He's like, "I'm afraid of s- I'm, I'm, you know, I'm tired of saying it."
35:20
Like, no, I'm, I'm gonna say it now. Like, I think the Browns go over their win total. If you ever, like, dreamed of a glass half full Adam Burke, uh, dissertation- [laughs]... that was it right there. Well done.
35:29
Pretty good. Uh, more with JBT on the other side. We'll, uh, get some college football season longs from him. Um, I don't know, maybe he has a baseball play. We'll find out.
35:37
We'll do that next on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] Network.
35:54
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, JBT with us as well.
36:10
Real quick couple tweets. Uh, Big Coomby, I believe I'm pronouncing that right, "Still new to tennis," he says, "at very popular national book. Coco went off minus 140 pre-flop, wins first set.
36:20
Before second set was over, Rybakina," I gotta edit, "was minus 150 for match. Can you walk me through how, why such a large move when at least it was a one set match at that point?"
36:30
Well, even, even the screenshot you're showing me, Big Coom, shows it wasn't at the beginning of the second set, 'cause you're right, if that was the flip before the s- second set, that wouldn't be right.
36:38
It was after Rybakina was up a break and then I think even two breaks in the second set, meaning it was already sort of fait accompli that it was gonna be level heading into the third set.
36:48
Also, if you were watching the match, Coco had a stretch there in the second set where it looked like she had lost her serve and she had just lost her, her com- complete wits. So that's the explanation.
36:57
But it, Rybakina was already up 5-2 in the second when that happened.
37:00
And then Willie B Bettin', "Based on Ben Shelton's social media post press conferences, I believe he hasn't lost a tournament this year when his boo, Trinity Rodman, has been in attendance.
37:08
He posted on his IG that Trinity surprised him at his hotel room earlier this week." I saw that. That was, uh, Trinity Rodman. Adorbs. Can I say that? Adorbs. Sure.
37:17
Uh, and then Mikey P, uh, "Saw this at the grocery store the other day. If I drink one of these, will this make me just a good a, uh, just as good of a capper as Dr. Bob?" Apparently, there's a Dr. Bob soda?
37:27
Where, where are you tweeting from, Mikey P? I'd like to know. Two liter bottles of Dr. Bob soda. Give me some of that.
37:33
And, uh, Bob, and last one, Bob Timeisprime, "As a person from Wisconsin, I'm pretty surprised Graham Mertz is in the NFL. I can't forget how bad he was in such a wonderful stadium. But good for him."
37:43
[laughs] That's well said. Well said. JBT joins us now, again, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Uh, instrumental in the College Football Guide. You covered the SEC and the Mountain West primarily, John?
37:54
Uh, yes, those are the two conferences that I had. My first year actually getting to cover, uh, the SEC for us or write about it. Usually I get the Big 12, but was handed the monstrous- Yes, you were...
38:02
Southeastern Conference, which I really enjoyed. A, a responsibility that one should- Yeah... not take, uh, lightly. I was a little surprised by it yesterday. I was like, "Hey Danny, what, what are we talking about JBT?
38:10
Mountain West? Eh, well, I guess EC. Wow. Yeah." Yeah. "Moving up in the world, John. Okay." So your, your favorite best bet in terms of a season win total in the SEC has to do with Auburn?
38:21
Yeah, I'm, I'm kind of in, like I'll, I'll drink the Kool-Aid here. Uh, Auburn is gonna be absolutely fantastic. I think first and foremost, the continuity and, yes, it's a new coaching staff.
38:29
Alex Gurich is coming in, for those who don't remember, uh, coached USF last season, but it's Gurich, it's Byron Brown who comes in with him from that Bulls team, too.
38:38
You get two receivers who come in as well with them that are really gonna help Jeremiah Cogar, 38 receptions, 597 yards, as well as KeShawn Singleton, 50 receptions, 877 yards, and his offensive coordinator from a season ago.
38:49
So, you know, it's, one of my burning questions was essentially can USF win the SEC? Because this is just a bunch of USF guys in different uniforms going and playing for the Tigers.
38:59
But Brown's presence, I think, is very, very important here for Auburn, obviously.
39:03
You go back and it's one of those things where, you know, if I were to tell you guys, "Hey, Byron Brown was really good last year," I think we'd all agree, like, yeah, he was good.
39:09
And then you put the numbers down on paper, 65.8% completion, 4,238 total yards rushing and passing, 42 total touchdowns. This dude was awesome, and obviously we know led the Bulls to an upset win over the Gators.
39:21
I think this offense is gonna be very, very good, but one of the things that really pushed me over the edge, and Stormy brought this up, I thought, and I stole her point and wrote about it in the guide.
39:29
Gurich did a really good job in retaining DJ Durkin, a defensive coordinator. Durkin has done a really good job with his Tigers team over the last couple of seasons.
39:36
They allowed just 20.7 points per game last year, 2.9 yards per carry, and for the first two seasons allowed fewer than five yards per play.
39:43
So you retain Durkin as your play caller on defense, you retain some personnel on that side of the ball, too.
39:48
So I get this good mix of an offense that was really good, one of the best returning quarterbacks in the country, and an SEC caliber defense already in place for the most part.
39:56
I think these things really work together for Auburn. So over six and a half, I think it's a playable number at minus 115. I am buying in on the Tigers and Gurich this year for sure.
40:04
Yeah, Baylor, Southern Miss, Sta- uh, Samford, win, win, win. Yep. They get Arkansas and Vandy at Jordan-Hare, win, win. I guess the- Yep...
40:13
I guess home date Florida, road game Mississippi State, it gets a little difficult with those, but yes. Okay, Auburn over six and a half from JBT, uh, out of the SEC. Let's go to the Mountain West.
40:21
I remember one of my first reactions when VSiN first started observing Matt and, uh, JBT, I was like, "Boy, these guys really like the Mountain West a lot." They do, yeah. Yeah. Sure do.
40:29
Uh, okay, so we have a, we have a few Mountain West plays here, where UNLV- Yep... by the way, is the short shot to win the conference at plus 260.
40:37
Uh, let's start with, uh, Mountain West football, only North Dakota State. You have a thought on them? Yeah, I do.
40:44
And, uh, you know, so the point of, uh, the love for the Mountain West, there's so many teams in college, both basketball and in football, like might as well just whittle it down to the conferences you know well. Yeah.
40:51
For sure. And so that's what I like to do here, uh, when it comes to this. And so with the Mountain West, we'll start with North Dakota State.
40:56
One of the things that, uh, I don't really like about what North Dakota State did this year is they're definitely kind of... You know, we were talking about Raiders fans, right, in the, the break, Gil.
41:05
I don't wanna say the Bison are drinking their own Kool-Aid- [laughs]... but they're definitely sticking to their guns with how they're gonna build this program.
41:11
You look at what they did in the transfer portal, and it was pretty much nothing.
41:14
In their 2026 recruiting class, they brought in 29 high school players, only nine transfers, three of which played at a Power Four program last season, and one of those is a punter.
41:22
So in other words, they really didn't add in the transfer portal proven talent from other different levels. And a lot of these teams in the Mountain West are.
41:30
New Mexico might have a transfer from Oregon playing at quarterback because of an injury. UNLV rebuilt their entire roster with a bunch of transfers from Power Four programs.
41:36
We can go down the list outside of Air Force of teams that have done this. They're, New Da- North Dakota State, promoting internally.
41:42
And maybe that works in a year or two, but I think this year, given the market expectations as well, I think that's somewhat of a flawed plan here.
41:50
So I think that with my starting point, I like this team under the to- the win total. Remember, they're also replacing their quarterbacks and, uh, their starting quarterback.
41:57
And you gotta wonder, too, 'cause Nathan Hayes is gonna be the heir apparent to Cole Payton.
42:01
They have had a starting quarterback drafted in the NFL Draft since the 2000, I think it was, uh, 12 draft or something like that. Like, that is really good run of quarterbacks getting drafted.
42:10
Logic says at some point that's just going to dry up. Like, you can't just always have NFL talent at the quarterback position.
42:15
But I just think given all of the replacement and just the role that they are being thrust into here making this transition, I think that's really difficult. And then you look at their schedule. They got no favors.
42:24
They've gotta go to Air Force, UNLV, Hawaii, New Mexico. These are all teams that I think can win this conference. [laughs] And they have to make road trips to every single one of those.
42:32
I think this is gonna be a pretty difficult schedule for them.
42:34
So you could play it a number of different ways, but under eight and a half at a plus 140 price, I think that's a really playable number here for North Dakota State. I think they're being priced a little too high.
42:42
Let's talk about one of those teams you just mentioned in there, Air Force. We know what to expect from Air Force. Yeah. 250 yards rushing every game. But they were four and eight last year.
42:50
I think they're trying to stave off their third straight losing season, this would be, if it happened. Yep. But the schedule's pretty easy based on, based on a quick glance here. Yeah, it is.
43:01
And amongst Mountain West, uh, football nerds, this is a very chic pick, Air Force, to go over a win total and potentially win the conference.
43:08
But, uh, it really it all starts with the defense 'cause the offense, you hit it, they're gonna be really good. Like, last year they averaged, like, 30 points.
43:14
They were a top 15 team in a lot of difference, advanced metrics, and top 15 in the country, we should note. They were wildly efficient. Liam Zarca is back at quarterback.
43:21
This is the first time in four years that Troy Calhoun has had a returning starter at quarterback, so it's a really big deal for them as well. But it's really about the defense, if they're going to be better.
43:29
They allowed 30.3 points per game last year, 423 yards per game. Opponents averaged 7.2 yards per play. They were awful.
43:36
But with some continuity back, and there's always that debate of, well, if you bring a lot of guys back from bad defense, is it gonna get better- [laughs]... or is it just gonna be the same?
43:43
And I, I think there's a kind of middle ground between that. But I think one of the big changes here, too, is, uh, Calhoun went out and brought in Steve Russ.
43:49
He's actually the former defensive coordinator for the Falcons way back in, like, 2014 to, like, 2017. Understands what Calhoun wants to do. Given the returning production, how good the offense is gonna be.
43:59
And you mentioned the schedule as well, Gil, which I think works in their favor, too. Uh, they do have to face the big boys, but two of them, North Dakota State and UNLV, have to make the road trip to Colorado.
44:07
Uh, they've gotta go to New Mexico. But I question... You know, I, I've heard a lot of, like, "Well, New Mexico has home field advantage now." Does it? [laughs] Nobody went out to games in Albuquerque. Yeah.
44:16
And just because a few thousand more show up, I don't think that means that all of a sudden you upgrade New Mexico's home field to an extent. So I think those are winnable games. We'll see what Hawaii...
44:24
Or, excuse me, they don't have to play Hawaii, which is really good. And then you get the potential winnable spots, Duquesne, San Jose State, UConn, UTEP.
44:30
I, I think Air Force is gonna be a challenger for the Mountain West Conference championship. I'd personally bet Hawaii to win this thing at six to one.
44:38
But with the Pofeli Ashlocke injury at wide receiver, if you were gonna go hunting anywhere else, I think Air Force at plus 550 holds some value.
44:44
And we should probably have started with this with the Mountain West, which is no Boise State anymore, no San Diego State- Yep... no Fresno State, no Colorado State, no Utah State. They're all in the Pac-12 now, Kelly.
44:54
Jesus. You knew that. Along with Texas State. So you... But you do feel that, uh, uh, i- injuries aside, like, if they can stay healthy, that this is Hawaii's year in this conference? I think so.
45:05
You know, I think it's somewhat unfair, because I keep hearing a lot of, like, "Hey, Mike Aloha," their s- you know, their quarterback, uh, Bishop Gorman alum, by the way. Shout out. Shout out.
45:13
Um, w- like, the, there's a lot of, like, "He can't... He, he hasn't proven that he can stay healthy."
45:18
Well, he had one full year as a starter, and he only missed two games, and then he played the rest of the year with an injury. I feel like it's somewhat unfair to just assume that he's gonna get injured again.
45:26
I understand he's demure by, you know, quarterback standards, but I think he's a very good quarterback. And despite the fact that he was dealing with that lower body injury all year long, was absolutely fantastic.
45:35
So as I mentioned, Ashlocke is a serious injury at wide receiver. Uh, but there are some rumblings that maybe it's not as serious as one could expect, so we'll see what the, what that's going to look like here.
45:44
But I think given the fact that they get all of the tough opponents at home, all of the easier r- opponents are on the road, I think this team can make some noise coming off a nine-win season.
45:51
And they've improved their record every year under Timmy Chang, and I, I think that they can pull this off here, too. And I'm just a big Aloha guy, and I think that's gonna make a big difference in this conference.
45:58
Yeah, New Mexico at home, UNLV at home, North Dakota State at home. That really helps, for sure. Uh, John, appreciate it very much. Do you have a Heisman Trophy bet for us on the way out? Gunner Stockton, 20 to 1.
46:09
Uh, I really think that that's a pretty good price. Uh, and look, simple handicap. Starting quarterback for a potential top five team in the country that's gonna make it to the College Football Playoff.
46:16
But I think he was really good last year, and they're gonna open the offense up a little bit more for him. A lot of Gunner Stockton love. Yeah. Just anecdotally from hearing about the Heisman. I get it.
46:25
Uh, John, continue the, uh, the health, uh, surge that you're on. You look great, man. K- thank you for being on the show. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Jonathan Von Tobel, everybody, co-host with Stormy Bonatoni.
46:36
Money Moves, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific, Monday through Friday here at the network. We'll come back. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
