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Aug 14, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 14, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 14, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So many ways to take us in. Guess what? We don't care which way you do, we just appreciate that you do.
0:20
It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine. So much more than a producer, so much more. Sap- So much more. What's happening, man? You good? I'm good, man. How are you? Uh, I am, uh, I am fabuloso.
0:33
On the show today, we didn't have Drew Dinsick in his normal Tuesday spot yesterday, so he is with us today. Travel day for Drew. Well, let him t- uh, dr- uh, travel day. Where was he going? I say, uh- I have no idea...
0:42
his, his day job. Oh, good point. Maybe we get Drew in the nature today. I don't know. Well, that's true. We could get him in the nature. Yeah. In nature. Um, we have had him in all kinds of- We really have...
0:51
natural habitats. You name it, he's been there. Yeah, the last time was, like, on a work site location, right? Mountains, work site, beaches. In the middle of California. And leads a good life.
1:00
We'll let him, we'll let him take a victory lap for his Olympics, and then we'll get his thoughts on the NFL and tennis, um, which I have my, uh, picks coming up here momentarily.
1:08
Will Hill with all his plays, MLB and more, and then Steve Fezzik again. What? Do we book him two weeks in a row? Tell- don't tell Patrick and Dustin. We'll, we'll let him- Yeah... we'll, we're just borrowing him.
1:19
Just borrowing him. Just borrowing him. Uh, but we have lots of stuff to talk with Fezzik about. He will be here on the desk at the D here at Bar Canada. Uh, so looking forward to that.
1:28
Fezzik in the house a little later on. Kelly will talk F- uh, FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first of the three FedEx tournaments. 70 golfers qualifying for the s- for the, uh, FedEx St.
1:38
Jude, so we'll get into that as well. I do wanna start where I start, uh, every day here on The Numbers Game when the tennis tours are in North America. Yesterday, gave out five plays. We went three and two.
1:51
That included a, uh, plus 187 winner and a plus 165 winner on, um, Ashlyn Kruger and Jordan Thompson respectively. So again, Kelly, I say as my New Year's resolution, please remind me. Um, we are, we're now up 40...
2:08
Uh, let me get this right, 42, more than 42 units. Do I have that right? Yes. More than 42 units on hard courts this year. And since the Olympics started, which is clay, so throw that in, over 16 units.
2:26
So again, I just ask you, please tell me not to bet grass next year. [laughs] You got it. Because most of that went back- [laughs]... in grass. That's it. Same thing, 'cause I'm on a couple year streak with the NBA.
2:36
When the playoffs start- Yes... just, like, take my phone away. Talk about betting leaks. Yeah. That has become my betting leak.
2:42
Um, three today, and ladies and gentlemen, as a preview to what we will do during the United States Open, I ask my friend Kelly Bidlin if he would please pronounce the tennis plays for today. Oh, man.
2:53
See, see, this is where you guys, you guys think you're tricky. You think you can get me, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Nice. No problem. Okay. Beatriz Haddad Maia. See, I don't even need the full beast on that. Okay.
3:06
Well, let's, let's give the prices, too. So Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, minus 141. Minus 141. If you're a VSiN subscriber, you get these last night, vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport.
3:16
She's about minus 146 now. She's a little, uh, worse off. I wouldn't let it get any higher than that. All right. And then we got Xinyu Wang- I think-... ov- plus 178 over Ludmilla Samsonova.
3:30
Uh, it's, I think we go Wang Xinyu, and I think we go Samsonova. Oh, sure. Okay. Yeah, absolutely. By the way, you can still play her. I got her plus 178. She's still up there in price. Not quite as high, but up there.
3:40
All right. And then, uh, I'm not gonna go long A here. I think this is a Fabian Marozsan. This one I definitely- [laughs] I don't know these two dudes at all. [laughs] Fabian Marozsan over Corentin Moutet. Moutet.
3:54
Fabian Marozsan, Corentin Moutet. I was pretty close. Corentin Moutet. Give myself a pass on that one. Fabian Marozsan is Hungarian. You said- I, that, hey, I got that part right, though. Yeah. Not a Fabian.
4:05
He's not a Fabian. You did, but you, you went Marozan. [laughs] All right. So the picks again, Pavlyuchenkova minus 141 over Beatriz Haddad Maia. She's a little worse than that now.
4:16
Don't play it any higher than the minus 146 where she's at. Uh, Wang Xinyu plus 178, uh, over Ludmilla Samsonova. You could still play her at the, uh, slightly less bang for your buck price.
4:26
And then I actually got the worst of this one. You can get it at a much better price on Fabian Marozsan. I think it's closer to a coin flip than where I got it last night.
4:34
So we got the worst of the CLV, one of those rare times where we didn't get the best of it here. Those are the three, uh, tennis plays. By the way, Zach Cohen has his tennis plays at vsin.com as well.
4:45
Corentin Moutet is a cool name. Corent- Moutet? Corentin Moutet. He's French. Yeah, that, that's a cool name. Yeah. Kinda cool.
4:51
We're gonna- I gotta give props to a name after, after, uh, we crushed, uh, poor Asterisk yesterday. Oh, yeah. You, you felt bad about it. I called him a terrible first name. Yeah, yeah. You felt bad about it.
4:58
I felt bad. It's probably like a family name or something. That's terrible. By the way, these pronunciations remind me of, uh, s- uh, my first year in Spanish class, seventh grade Spanish.
5:06
[laughs] Uh, we were going around conjugating verbs, and this kid Del Outman was sitting next to me, and the teacher, you know, going around, "You served, you did whatever," you know, imperfect tense, whatever.
5:14
And he goes to Del Outman, and he, the teacher goes, "We worked."
5:17
And then, uh, Del Outman looked around the class and he goes, ah, he's thinking about it, and he goes, ah, and he was so sure of himself, and he goes- [laughs]...
5:25
with a smile on his face, he goes, "Nosotros trava- jabamos." [laughs] We died. [laughs] Oh, it's awesome. Nosotros trava- jabamos. Oh my God, it was fantastic.
5:43
Anyway, uh, so the big news in the NFL, J.J. McCarthy, he didn't tell anybody while this was h- [laughs] while this was happening the other night, trava- jabamos. Oh.
5:52
He didn't tell anybody that he, that he kind of got hurt. Um, and so after the game, he had a great performance as we talked about in the Vikings', uh, preseason debut for the Vikings' first round draft pick, J.J.
6:03
McCarthy. Turns out he needs meniscus surgery, and the thing with meniscus is it's a blood flow thing, and so they don't know until they go in where- And to what extent the meniscus is harmed.
6:18
And so only when they go in will we learn if he is out for a short period of time or for the entire season. It's always fascinating.
6:25
I was, uh, I was hearing more about that yesterday too, and it's, they also, all of that, plus because of that, they don't know how much repair work and what type of repair work is necessary- Yeah...
6:36
till they get in [laughs] there. So I, it, yeah, it's, uh, very fascinating, and, uh, we have to wait and see, I guess. We have to wait and see.
6:41
And if he can't go, he wasn't supposed to start week one, but you did feel like he would start eventually. Yes. And so the Vikings depth chart, for those wondering, is Sam Darnold, as you know, as the number one.
6:52
But then it would be, would be, if McCarthy can't go, um, Nick Mullens, who s- [laughs] you know, it's just like what a career he has forged- Yeah... as an NFL backup. Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall.
7:04
Jaren Hall is your third string. I was thinking about those guys yesterday. Yeah.
7:07
Because they were, the Vikings were kind of one of those teams I had circled to bet on look preseason because of that depth at quarterback.
7:13
Um, but you know, you're kind of thinking all along, well, one of those guys isn't gonna make it through camp, whether it's Jaren Hall or, or Nick Mullens, uh, with them having bo- both Darnold and McCarthy.
7:23
But man, both those guys probably will now.
7:26
I, I mean, Jare- Jaren Hall might have just gotten another chance with the Vikings after we saw some pretty [laughs] wh- what did he play, like, three quarters last year or something in one of those games?
7:34
Right, I think he got in for a few quarters. Looked, looked terrible. Yeah. Yeah. And then, and then the other thing, uh, well first of all, does this make you feel differently about the Vikings?
7:41
Sam Darnold was supposed to be the week one starter anyway, but it kind of makes me feel different about them. It, it does. Yeah. For me it does. Me too.
7:47
I'm not, I'm not one of these- 'Cause I expected him to c- to play at some point. Me too. So I mean, I've never been super down on this Vikings team.
7:55
I also feel like there's others we've talked to that have been very high on them, where I'm not n- I'm not super high on this team, but I think if you were high on this team this year, and by high on this team I mean going over their win total, actually competing for a playoff spot, right?
8:07
Right, right. I think if you were high on this team this year, you were thinking, like we were, that McCarthy's coming in at some point, right? I don't think that season-long handicap is based off of Sam Darnold. No.
8:19
And we'll see if, again, if it's season-ending or if he, he's only gonna be out for a short period of time. But if it were season-ending, it would make me feel a little different about them.
8:27
I'll tell you, again, let's go back to seven days ago- But, but you're also right. Like, if he's out eight weeks, does it matter at all? I don't know that it matters at all. Right.
8:34
It might have been that might have been the game plan the whole time anyways. And we have to wait till the results of the surgery before we know any answers.
8:40
What, what obviously mattered more in terms of your perception of a team, or at least to me it did, a week ago, uh, when you were off, I talked about the whole Brandon Aiyuk thing with San Francisco.
8:49
And at that time, uh, Matt Maiocco reported that Brandon Aiyuk, there was a f- there was a deal, a framework was in place for a deal for the Niners with Brandon Aiyuk with the Browns and the Patriots both, and that it was up to Aiyuk to decide.
9:05
And I mentioned, and I, I retweeted the video of me, of me talking about it last week. I mentioned in that video, I'm like, "But here's the thing about all this.
9:12
The Niners and/or Aiyuk can still decide they wanna, they wanna make a deal themselves." Mm-hmm.
9:18
And it looks like now a week later, it feels like cooler heads have prevailed, and that the only team out there where a quote-unquote framework is in place for a deal is the Steelers of all teams, not the Patriots or the, or the, uh, Browns.
9:33
But that the Niners and Aiyuk may be closer than even that to coming to a deal themselves.
9:40
And the reason that this obviously is big to me is because, I went through this last week, the Niners window is this year and next year, period. Period, as the kids say. Right? That's it.
9:52
Because the, after that, that's when you have to pay Brock Purdy.
9:55
And once you pay Brock Purdy money, then you've gotta make economic decisions elsewhere that are not gonna have as, as great of a football team around you, right? This is what we always say about winning Super Bowls.
10:04
Surround yourself with a, uh, with quar- surround a quarterback who's overperforming on a rookie deal or have a Hall of Famer. Well, obviously, uh, Brock Purdy falls into the first category, and once that's over, uh-oh.
10:15
So I don't know, I want you to lean in for this, Kelly. The object of all of this, you ready for this? Is to win a Super Bowl. And so if you lose a piece like Brandon Aiyuk,
10:27
and a lot of people say, "Well, he's not the key cog in the wheel," you don't know. If you're not watching all 22, you don't w- you don't really know the chicken and the egg on every play.
10:35
You know, is he creating the space for Kittle- Absolutely. Right... and Deebo? Correct. Or are they creating the space for him? We don't know this answer. Mm-hmm.
10:43
Um, I used to say that about when Kirk Cousins played for Washington. Is it Deshaun Jackson creating the room for Jordan Reed underneath? Like, you don't really know unless you can analyze the position.
10:51
That's, that's almost always been a thing with any- Yes... any great offense with multiple receivers, right? That's absolutely right.
10:57
It's, it's both o- yes, they're all individually talented, but yes, they're also creating s- they're creating separation and space and distracting defenses because of their ability.
11:06
So I think given the window and given what the object of all this is, to win a Super Bowl, and this just in, the Niners have still not done so with this current group, I think they'd be nuts to let Brandon Aiyuk go.
11:18
Yeah, me too. So- Me too. It does, I mean, these, these reports are weird, right? 'Cause we don't see this like in other sports. [laughs] Like the fact that reportedly Steelers and 49ers have a deal in place. Yeah.
11:28
Yet the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk are talking off to the side. And I don't think, heart of hearts, I don't think he ever wanted to leave. He just wanted his money.
11:34
I just can't believe your first reaction wasn't like mine, and it was, "Sure, the Steelers, absolutely. We total under th-" [laughs] Kelly has walked off the set. Drew Dincic is next.
11:46
Uh, we'll give him Olympics victory lap and his NFL thoughts next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling live at Bar Canada.
12:04
The D, Drew Dincic standing by. Uh, we get tweets. These are, uh, tweets from throughout the week here, Kelly, that we didn't get to. Jamie Leyva, uh, quote, "Oh, you brave.
12:12
Gil just, uh, casually hanging with Chubb Rock in an encounter with Tupac. I'm all up in my feelings right now. That was fantastic, sir." And, uh, love Kelly, how he hits the, uh, hard H on Herb.
12:23
Also lay off the grass, Gil Lay off the gr-- pass on grass, man Pass on grass Just pass on grass.
12:28
That's your New Year's resolution Uh, Base Winner actually gave his lyrics of his Sonny Gray biggie thing Oh my God, I forgot about that already "Sonny, Sonny, Sonny, can't you see? The pitches you throw hypnotize team.
12:38
And I just love your strikeout rate. I'm gonna bet on you so I can get paid." All right. Thanks, Base Winner. That kid is hip.
12:45
Uh, plus EV Analytics, Matt Buchalter, who was here last week, uh, he was watching one of the Fezzik segments, and he chimed in.
12:52
He goes, "Hmm, pretty sure your super smart and extremely handsome guest last Thursday said the same thing," meaning himself. [laughs] Uh, let's see. Trust the glove. "I asked for a three-year subscription.
13:04
Um, I watch or listen as a proper defensive response to the lines moving so darn fast, especially the tennis lines. Uh, apparently the books are listening also. Cheaters," he says.
13:14
Tony P., oh, oh, talking about, uh, Malika Andrews. Did you see Malika Andrews handling the earthquake?
13:19
Uh, we have a seismologist coming up on the show momentarily We were, we could have been text- we were texting about it back and forth, you and I Yes It's incredible My immediate reaction, 'cause, uh, for those who missed it, there was a, I think a 4.7 earthquake on the Richter scale in, in LA, and Malika was on air doing NBA whatever the midday show is called Yeah, NBA Today...
13:35
NBA Today Yep And, uh, she handled it like you and I breathe. And, uh, you know, like, like you're taking another breath, and I immediately said, I'm like, "That's how you know someone's from the Bay Area."
13:43
And, uh- I, I hope to be as composed as Tim Legler. Did you see the, the, the Tim Legler cutaway? No 'Cause she was, like, at the monitor. He was still on the desk just, like, hanging out for the segment.
13:52
He would do what anybody would do in TV. It's the, it's the, "Oh man, these lights are moving and they're right above my head" Yes So he was, like, wide-eyed, like, looking up the whole time.
14:01
He didn't freak out or anything. It was, it was a correct reaction She was great. She checked on everybody backstage- She was awesome... checked on everybody around.
14:07
Um- I would've been running out of this place, stiff-arming Gil out of the way. I'd be, "Get out of the way" [laughs] Tony P.
14:11
says, "Yeah, but she may have gone too long because if she was still here," meaning the Bay, "she would've immediately tweeted earthquake while it was still shaking," which is a very nuanced thing.
14:19
Everybody in the Bay tweets earthquake when it happens. [laughs] Like, "Hey, you guys should know we're all in the same thing." And, um, yeah. So other stuff about that. We'll get to more tweets. We have a seismologist.
14:29
Uh, he happens to have just had a great Olympics betting as well. He's the host of not one, but two podcasts, the Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher.
14:38
It's our buddy Drew Dincic at whale_capper, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. What's happening, man? Nothing bad. How are you guys? Uh, we're doing very well. 4.7.
14:47
In, in the world of seismology, which, uh, you've been known to dabble in, Drew. I'm not sure if you're aware of this. Um, you know, for those of us in California, it's just kind of like, eh, 4.7.
14:57
Yeah But if it hits you in the right spot, it could feel a lot bigger Yeah, and that one was, uh, especially weird, honestly.
15:05
Um, usually 4.7 duration, you're like maybe 10 seconds, strong shaking, you know, maybe one or two pulses. Um, that was actually kind of more...
15:15
It, it was, it was, uh, it was more energetic, uh, than your normal 4.7, and, uh, uh, in particular, it hit downtown LA hard. You know, it was almost directly under downtown LA. It was like in the Pasadena area.
15:28
So, um, what people kind of lose track of a little bit with earthquakes is they kind of focus on the magnitude, um, but your proximity to the actual strongest part of the shaking tends to matter more.
15:40
Yes Um, and when you have something centrally located like in an urban area and everybody feels it, uh, it can be spooky. And, uh, yeah, that one was pretty, uh, pretty significant for what was a, a smaller magnitude.
15:51
But, uh, you know, [laughs] these things happen Good for, good for her for handling it like a pro As the crew tells me, Patrick Maher as well was, [laughs] was on the air right in the middle- Oh...
16:00
of Sharp Money doing, uh, his show from, from that area while it hit. So yeah And he was, he was cool as a cucumber? Good, right? Uh, they didn't say that part Oh, man Bet- Matt Hicks did not say that part.
16:08
I don't know [laughs] I've been in ones that are rolling. I've been in ones where it felt like a, a higher power grabbed the building you're in and just went bam one time, and you're... Those, those are terrifying.
16:19
Those are the worst. Uh, Drew, congratulations on your fine Olympics. How great was it for you?
16:25
Uh, I mean, it, it couldn't have drawn it up any more and couldn't have drawn it up any more outstanding in terms of results. Um, and then, like, the way it played out made it especially enjoyable, right?
16:37
Uh, you know, I, I tend to play into the medal markets, not just because that gives you a little bit of margin of error of, you know, more events and more opportunities, but, uh, it just makes the two weeks more fun.
16:48
Uh, and if you care about, like, random sports, it's just, it just drives the entertainment value up exponentially.
16:54
And, uh, so yeah, the first week was all about sort of sweating out, uh, and missing out on random French golds, which there were a lot of close calls.
17:03
Uh, and then week two is all about, like, let's just get a couple Spanish golds home.
17:07
Um, ultimately, the, uh, the women's water polo came through on, uh, the final, you know, really at the, in the, in the, in the, at the death. Uh, and that was the fifth one I needed.
17:17
So, uh, couldn't have drawn it up any more, uh, in- enjoyably.
17:21
And, um, yeah, the highlight for me was certainly, uh, uh, sweating that, uh, Spain soccer, men's soccer final, where they're up 3-1 and they blow it, [laughs] blow a two-goal lead, uh, and then win in extra time.
17:34
Uh, and then, uh, right at that same time, the men's triple jumper from Spain wins gold, and I had individual bets on him that were pretty s- pretty heavily staked.
17:43
So, uh, I was just in heaven, uh, watching that on Friday. So, uh, very cool. And just in general, like, I don't know that you can do better than France did in terms of putting on a show. Yeah Like, it was so cool.
17:56
And, uh, yeah. Like, we could go on and on. I could...
17:59
I have, I would have a tough time power rating my top 10, uh, venues 'cause, uh, everything was so sick We, we tr- Oh, the fencing We- The fencing in a castle or whatever was ridiculous Yeah Although what was the cross-country horse racing was ridiculous too.
18:11
Yeah, yeah. That was amazing We went through a little bit of this last weekend, and like it was so many great venues that Drew, I think, left out the beach volleyball under the Empire State Building.
18:19
[laughs] Like it was just incredible. They were li- literally under it. It was incredible. Um, so con- Right in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower. Amazing. Yeah Congratulations to you because...
18:26
And it also ended well on the final day where the US got to over 39 and a half Oh, yeah Right? That was the big drama at the end. Um- Yeah. Last, uh, last gold awarded took us to 40 Took us to 40.
18:36
It was a beautiful thing. All right, what's the next random sport, what people would consider random, that you're betting on?
18:42
Or at this point is it just all football, US Open tennis, and then that's it, nothing random coming forward? No, you got it. Yeah. US Open tennis, football.
18:51
I, I had to pivot hard, uh, and kind of get caught up on tennis before the US Open because I missed... I ba- I basically mailed the, mailed the, the, uh, Canadian Open entirely.
19:01
Um, and I mean, I'm glad I did 'cause guess who I did not have on my radar as making runs was Anisimova and, uh, Poprin. Alexey Poprin. [laughs] Uh, yeah. Yeah. Poprin winning it all would've... was just a holy heck.
19:14
That must have been like a 300 to 1 shot pre-tournament.
19:16
But, um, whatever the case is, the, uh, um, yeah, I need to get back into the groove, uh, tennis-wise, and then, um, yeah, I've already made a bunch of bets for week one for NFL and, uh, I think, uh, starting to kind of fine-tune my, um, handicap on all these teams as we get ready to start the season.
19:34
All right, let's hold the week one till right after the break- Sure... but let's talk about the US Open for a second. Let's just do a couple minutes on that. Yeah. What are your thoughts here?
19:41
Sinner, Jannik Sinner on the men's side now already sort of the, the, the, the injuries are creeping back. Yeah. It feels like we're, we're talking about him pre-Aussie Open, right?
19:52
Where it's sort of like can you really trust this injury? Novak Djokovic coming off the gold. Is there such a thing as a letdown in tennis? And how do you feel about a, a always crowded ladies' side on hard courts?
20:06
Uh, so on the men's side I agree with you. I'm nervous about Sinner's health and, and just in general, uh, you know, he's...
20:13
it doesn't necessarily feel like we're seeing the same guy that, um, you know, lit the world on fire last fall into, uh, into the s- you know, winter and spring swing.
20:22
Um, Carlos Alcaraz would be my favorite for the US Open if it started today. Yeah. Sinner would be my second choice.
20:28
Uh, Djokovic would be a close third though, and I do believe in like letdowns specifically for a player like Djokovic who, I mean,
20:36
uh, if you kind of told me that he came into this calendar year and was like, "Yeah, I want one thing and it's a gold medal," [laughs] like I would believe it. Mm-hmm.
20:44
He played so much better in that particular run at that tournament than he did any other opportunity he had.
20:51
Um, I don't know if he gets back up for these tournaments, and certainly he could, and he could, uh, you know, ultimately win the US Open surely. He tends not to play his best tennis there for whatever reason.
21:02
Some, you know, maybe it's the conditions, the weather, who knows. But, um, yeah, he would be the third choice on the men's side, and I honestly think that's where you draw the line.
21:09
Um, all of the sort of the next class of guys have just proven that they're not really trustworthy in terms of sustaining excellence to the degree of being in that final and giving the likes of a Sinner or an Alcaraz a, a true test.
21:22
And so I think it'll probably come down to one of those three. Ladies' side. Any, any hunch? Yeah. Iga's gotta be your favorite, and then everybody after that has huge question marks.
21:33
Sabalenka looks completely lost right now. Uh, Rybakina, who knows if she's even ready to play. Um, and then yeah, Coco Gauff not the same player we saw on this, at this time last year.
21:45
She was playing with so much more purpose and just in general like, uh, nervous that- She was so good, so good hard court season last year. Yeah. Yeah.
21:52
And she's gonna end up dropping a ton of, of, uh, ranking points too if she doesn't have a similar run because she was so d- you know, so just back-to-back tournaments just excellence, excellence, excellence on the, uh, hard court swing through the US, and, uh, yeah, n- very much concerned about her, uh, form right now, and I think there are probably at least 10 candidates of either lesser-known players or, you know, just kind of up-and-coming young players that you're gonna have to keep an eye out for.
22:20
Uh, women's does feel wide open. I agree with you. Yeah. But, uh, but I think you're right. Iga, she gotta be the favorite.
22:26
Um, and I think c- I feel the same way about Carlitos and Iga in Cincinnati by the way, which is underway. Uh, week one, National Football League. Drew has thoughts. Haven't asked him about any awards either.
22:38
I'm not sure if he's dabbled in that as well. Drew Dinsick, @whale_capper from Deep Dive and Bet the Edge. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:46
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from far Canada here at the Dave. By the way, Kelly and me never throw up this graphic here.
22:59
You could hit us up, Kelly and me, on Twitter. Uh, [laughs] join the conversation. Ron Flatter used to hate when f- people used to say that. Join the conversation. Uh, I'm at Beating the Book, as you know.
23:10
Kelly is at Kelly Bidlon, spelled K-E-L-L-E-Y B-Y-D-L-O-N, Kelly Bidlon. Check out long shots this week too. I hear Matt Bra- Matt Brown mispronounce my name somehow. Like not on purpose also? Yeah, not on purpose.
23:24
What'd he call you? It's pretty entertaining. What'd he call you? It was, uh, Kelly Bidley, I believe. Bidley. [laughs] Kelly Bidley. He, like, really wound up. He's like, "He's coming back from vacation.
23:31
Uh, Kelly Bidley back" and I'm like, "What did you just say?" [laughs] Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book, always appreciated.
23:38
Um, oh, Table Max, 'cause you were wondering w- if the 1500 was a sprint and I was saying it wasn't. He says, "To me the race is a sprint if they use the starting blocks. Without those it's just a race." There you go.
23:48
So like once again- Good clarification... and this is like Drew could definitely help answer this, every sprint is a race, but not every race is a sprint. Correct. Yeah.
23:56
Uh, The Silent Mike D, "Please ask Jason Weingarten if Jaxon Merrill has a killer mustache 'cause the 'stache rules and the girlfriend is the cherry on, is the cherry on top. Air Force Academy alum."
24:06
He's talking about, uh, Skeens versus Jaxon Merrill, which by the way Jason was fantastic on that yesterday. Mm-hmm. Stumping for Jaxon Merrill. Um, and then did you see this thing? We had this tweet w- yesterday.
24:16
Did you see this guy who sent this tweet around, um, about the, you know, the, uh, service time? This is from, I wanna get the guy's name, Brian McElhinney.
24:29
Brian McElhinney says, "Fascinating situation" He's just a Pirates fan for all I know. He said, "Fascinating situation brewing with Paul Skeens.
24:35
With the Pirates out of the race he will be shut down at some point" This is his theory, "and can't really argue/take issue with that. A top two Rookie of the Year finish starts his free agency clock a year earlier.
24:47
We assumed this to be a lock. Still likely, but could get interesting." So in other words, if Skeens finishes top two, right?
24:59
So again, let's say it again, top two Rookie of the Year finish starts his free agency clock a year earlier.
25:05
So the Pirates and other-- or, or in other words, by this theory, are incentivized to shut him down at some point so that he doesn't end up top two Rookie of the Year.
25:15
Now, we talked about Jackson Merrill and seeding him from the, uh, from the actual award. Yeah. Getting him out of the top two is gonna lo- gonna be a little more dicey. And can you really see them shutting him down?
25:25
This is your fr- your franchise stinks. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You've got this amazing unicorn of a player. Are you really gonna do that to your fans? I don't think so. I don't think you can.
25:34
I, only because we're, only because it is August 14th, right? Dude, like- Yeah... we were all b-bringing up these types of questions in like June when it- Yeah... I think it was a little bit more fair to wonder.
25:42
But like we're running out of time here. By the way also, uh, you see DraftKings not doing their 3% thing, huh? Yep. That was a- Never know that one. You-- can I translate that for you?
25:49
Well, we found out FanDuel's not doing it, so we can't do it either. By the way, watch them try to stick 'em in the same game parlays now. Uh, Drew Dincic. This is a stream of consciousness on the show today.
25:59
Drew, Drew Dincic joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line once again. Drewski, did I get anything wrong about that FanDuel explanation right there? No, [chuckles] that was 100% right. Yeah.
26:09
The timing was, uh, was hilarious. Yeah. Uh, and I did get your, uh, segment with, uh, s- with, uh, Spread PD yesterday, and I could not agree more.
26:18
It was a fantastic breakdown and, uh, yeah, I, uh, [chuckles] I will be shocked now if Skeens does one. Yep. He's r- I think he's gonna be right. Uh, okay, week one, National Football League.
26:28
I cannot believe we are this close. This is where it gets real.
26:31
Still two more, two more preseason games, and then a, and then that awkward week off where we all kind of have to sit and look at each other for, for an additional week. Uh, but week one. Ah.
26:40
What are, what are your thoughts? What are your bets? Well, that week off is, is great, as you know, Gil. Ugh. Uh, because- This is tennis... you take the people... No, well, it's tennis. Yeah.
26:48
But even more than that, like, you take the people in your life who you're not gonna see for football season and do important things with them. Well, this is Napa trip week. This, this is- Yeah. That's right.
26:56
This is Napa week. That's right. [laughs] This is Drew's, Drew's plus EV tip of the week. Here you go, Drew. Let us know. Yeah, I will be up in wine country that week. You're absolutely right.
27:04
Um, but, uh, yeah, plus EV tip of the week.
27:06
That time where you're waiting for, uh, football to start, that's, that's when you, uh, you get that last trip in with the wife so that she's not as, uh, um, you know, you know, kind of bent out of shape that you're gonna de- dedicate as much time as you are to watching football on the weekend for the next, uh, you know, four weeks.
27:22
Here, here's my only question about that. Do you explicitly state this to her, or do you just do it- No.... and she figures it out? No. She figures it out, right? No. She's like, "Oh." No, it's, it's, this literally...
27:32
I, I mean, you can. You could be, "Look, look, I wanna make sure we spend some time together." Yeah. Like, yeah. Of course. It's just like, things are gonna, things are about to get really busy. Yeah. You know?
27:40
Like yeah, this is, this is important, so. Be, be way- Um, but no, I'm- Be way better if Drew laid it out as a surprise trip every year. Like, "Surprise!" That's what I mean. Surprise! "Same dates again."
27:50
And sh- for the whole week she's like, "God, you're so sweet." [laughs] And then she figures it out the next Sunday. She's like, "Oh, I see what you did." That kind of thing. Yeah. All right, week one. What have you bet?
28:01
Uh, okay. So most of my action so far has been totals 'cause I feel like in general the totals are probably gonna move more than the sides are between now and when we get to, uh, kickoff.
28:09
Um, and, uh, I think obviously the, you know, the impact of the, um, of the new kickoff rule is, uh, is gonna be tough for, you know, the market to absorb, you know, it quickly.
28:21
I think ultimately what we're seeing in the, uh, preseason gives you some idea that you're gonna have starting field position in or around the 30 on average, uh, when you, uh, when you get kicked off the ball.
28:32
And that should have a difference to the tune of about two points per game, which is, uh, you know, non-trivial.
28:39
I think also you look at some of the other macro stuff going on in the sport and, um, you know, totals crashed last year because we had such a, you know, kind of rotating cast of characters at the quarterback position.
28:50
And you look across the league right now and I think the quarterback position is in really good shape.
28:54
Even the very youn- young and new, uh, additions outside of, you know, a handful of exceptions all look like they can play.
29:02
And I think that, uh, that should help kind of in general, uh, make offense look a little bit better as we get going here.
29:08
And I think, um, yeah, I think you're gonna see totals kind of go up over the course of, say, the first four weeks betw- between those two kind of macro factors until injuries start to really kind of rear their head.
29:20
But, um, yeah, so, you know, there, there are a handful of games where the over immediately popped. Um, and so far the market is with me with the exception of one.
29:30
Uh, I ha- I really liked that, uh, Jacksonville-Miami over when it was 49, and now you can get it at 48 and a half. Really?
29:37
Um, not exactly sure what people are seeing in the, uh, uh, in the Miami defense to believe that they're going to have enough talent to be effective against the Jags offense in that game.
29:48
I know that, that there's like a good case to be made that the new defensive coordinator coming from the McDonald's system is gonna, uh, elevate that unit at, you know, over the balance of the season.
29:58
Um, but they're lacking talent to the degree that I think that's gonna be much more of a track mean, uh, than it is gonna be a, uh, a, you know, a slog.
30:06
And, you know, there's, there's definitely a little bit of an eyebrow raise watching that Miami tape from preseason week one where, um, not related to the team, but related to the field, uh, the field was in such bad condition that, uh, you know, you could make a little bit of a case that, uh, things could be a little bit slow there, um, in Miami.
30:24
But ultimately, I still think that total should start with a five, uh, and 48 and a half is a, is a decent bet there. Um, I have the four other overs that I played, um, in no particular order.
30:37
I think the Minnesota Giants over at 41 is hilarious. I think that should be 44. Uh, I played the, uh, New England Cincinnati over 42. I think that should be 44. Uh, I like the Arizona Buffalo over at 48.
30:49
I think that should be 49. And, uh- I played the, uh, Washington-Tampa over 42.
30:55
I'm pretty much buying into Daniels being able to be, uh, if not, uh, the kind of guy that can get you some garbage time yards and points, a guy that can, you know, score and, and sustain drives enough to keep the Commanders competitive.
31:09
So, uh, I played, I think I played over 41 there, and it's 42 now, and I think it, you know, realistic bet is, uh, is good up to 44. Is there an awards market that you, uh, placed a wager on?
31:22
I'm in, I'm into everything at this point. Uh, which way, where do you want to go first? [laughs] Let's, let's run through as many as you can in two minutes. MVP. Sure. So, MVP is the most fun.
31:32
Ultimately, you got to find the right time to bet Mahomes in that market because there's definitely a w- you know, a s- a, a wind in the air that after having now won three Super Bowls, he needs to r- to be recognized with MVP again.
31:43
Yes. Um, and so whether you think that's now or there's a better time in season to get down, I, you know, you make that decision, I'm gonna wait till in season.
31:51
Uh, the guys that I think could shorten pretty aggressively based on se- schedule sequencing and just being in the mix are Burrow and Hurts.
31:58
Um, Burrow in particular because he goes head-to-head with Mahomes week two, and then his other, you know, initial three games out of the first four weeks are really, really soft.
32:08
Um, he's gonna go out to a, I think, a decent lead in that market personally. Um, and I think Philadelphia could be one of your last undefeated teams, so Hurts is gonna be in the mix again as well.
32:17
Uh, and that's about where I draw the line.
32:19
I think there's, there's re- there's reason to be doubtful for basically everyone else in that top tier, either because their schedule is so difficult, particularly at the end of the season, or there's just, uh, inconsistency.
32:30
Turnovers are, are a realistic part of the expectation for a guy like Josh Allen, a guy like Jordan Love. C.J.
32:36
Stroud, expecting him to take a step forward in the second year instead of just having a little bit of a, uh, you know, kind of growing, continue to growing into, you know, what that offense is gonna be, I think is realistic.
32:46
And so, uh, you know, they... I, I wouldn't completely rule him out, but I think in general, uh, uh, it's gonna come down to Burrow, Hurts, and then at some point betting Mahomes. Offensive Rookie of the Year.
32:58
Rookie of the Year for offense for me is, uh, Jayden Daniels. I think seven to one is absurd.
33:02
I think the difference between Daniels and, uh, uh, and Caleb Williams is not a huge margin, and it's gonna go to one of those two players. Would you still bet him at plus 450 if that's what people are saying now? Uh,
33:14
that's a little bit more narrow, but I would, yeah. Okay. Um, Comeback Player of the Year, anything, or are you staying away from that? No, I didn't play that market. You didn't play. Yeah, I didn't play that market.
33:21
Coach of the Year? Coach of the Year? Coach of the Year, Mike McDonald. Yeah. It's Seattle Seahawks time, baby. I think you're right. Uh. I have that feeling too.
33:29
[laughs] We're gonna pump those tires all week or a- or all, all season. Not Mike McDaniel, not Michael McDonald, Mike McDonald. Thank you, Drew. That's right. Appreciate it, buddy. Drew Dincic, everybody. Thanks, guys.
33:40
Uh, a little golf on the other side. Numbers game. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
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So head over to winnerscircleproxy.com now and book your appointment. Again, that's winnerscircleproxy.com, VSiN's preferred proxy partner. Why are you, why are you looking at me like? Oh, sorry. Sorry.
34:51
I thought you were, thought you were staring me. [laughs] Uh, we get tweets that beat to the book. Pulling up golf notes. That's where he's looking. [laughs] Sorry. It's Mr. Bob Apple. Mr. Bob Apple. Mr. Bob Apple?
34:58
That's what he says. He says, uh, "Gents, when is Todd coming back for content? Nothing makes me happier than Gil beating Todd up as he constantly interrupts. Also, Todd's announcer voices are gold.
35:10
I also wonder if Todd resembles a younger version of, uh, famed comedic actor John Lovitz. Cheers." He also adds, "Thanks again for the tennis profits. I owe you a McMuffin-" John Lovitz. [laughs] "...
35:19
when I'm out there for Labor Day." [laughs] John Lovitz. I don't know why that's funny, but- That's the ticket... they could be cousins. They could, they could be cousins. I could see that.
35:27
What are you, what are you trying to say? I could see that. Um, Todd Wishnev is who he's referring to, and Todd will be with us on the Megapod, on the Beating the Book Megapod every week.
35:35
Me, Todd, Will Hill, every Thursday before every week, um, we're on with a rotating guest, some of the best names in the industry, uh, doing week by week analysis on all the games. I was stupid good last year.
35:50
Two, by the way, we have our own contest, three plays a, a year. Oh, yeah, that was funny last year, right? I mean, not funny though. Oh, I crushed last year. 'Cause you crushed- Crushed...
35:57
but then, like, you got to extend it to five for Circa Millions, and [laughs] And that's exactly right. That's where, that's where I was going. So if it was a... It was... If Circa Millions were a three-game contest,
36:07
I, I would cash without question. But once it goes to four and five, I fall off a cliff. It's that fifth game every week for me. That's, that's the problem with those contests. That's why it's so difficult.
36:17
Um, so Todd says, by the way, since I was so good last year, he's like, "Fade Gilley." He's like, "He's gonna get crushed this year." That's his, that's his prediction. So we're gonna do that. And I wanna...
36:25
I'm, I'm, I'm trying to convince Todd to do something additional with me. I can't really talk about it yet because he hasn't agreed to it. Todd is a tough guy to get to agree to stuff, 'cause, you know, he's big time.
36:37
So we'll see. Uh, this is from, uh, this is from Skateboarding Is a Crime. "Pretty sure it's Fabian Maruchan." Sorry, I said Maruchan. My apologies.
36:49
Um, "3JackH3131 snagged a Diamondbacks number one seed this morning at 22 to one. That's good, right? Uh, who is your week one survivor pick? Have a great day, guys."
36:57
I do not have a week one survivor play yet, but as far as the Diamond- The Bengals The Bengals, is that yours? I haven't, I haven't played it yet, but it's definitely, it's definitely a, uh- Matt Brown...
37:05
on the short list. Matt Brown pronounces Bengals incorrectly. Yeah, the Bengals. The Bengals. Did, did you get a tweet phonetically? Is that what that was? Yes, a phonetic tweet. Okay. Sent Marshall, yeah.
37:13
Well, that's pretty impressive. By the way, did you see the Diamondbacks last night? They refuse to lose. Down a run heading into the ninth, one out, Corbin Carroll with a triple, of course, then a strikeout.
37:26
So two down, man on third, a walk, a walk. So bases juiced, two out, down one, and Jake McCarthy with a two RBI walk-off, and the D-backs win again. Yes, 22 to 1 is great.
37:38
By the way, when I was giving the number yesterday on air, FanDuel didn't have it up for number one seed, only DraftKings did. So I got a much worse number. I got 12 to 1, but it was 24 to 1.
37:47
It was double at FanDuel, so I got a little of that too. Not quite as much as I did on the 12 to 1. Um, this is from Justifolo Visen, who I believe we met recently.
37:58
Uh, "My father-in-law played defense in the NFL for seven seasons. I thought I understood the game and could watch all 22. All I keep learning every game we watch together is how little I really see.
38:10
Your take on Aiyuk's value is so spot on. We just don't truly know." He adds, "Maybe." [laughs] We'll see. Maybe- [laughs] Right, right... maybe you're right. Maybe, maybe it isn't right.
38:18
Maybe, maybe he's the product of it. Um, Clone Bone, "Earthquake starts. Kelly stiff-arms Gil to get out of the building first. What does Kelly's arm swing look like now as he runs out of the building?"
38:29
Oh my gosh, like never before. Getting love you, Kelly. Like never, I mean, like, we're like, we're up here at that point. [laughs] It's not- Like, like Mario style. [laughs] Knocking folks out.
38:37
All right, let's talk some golf. The FedEx St. Jude Classic in full effect. These are the, uh, 70 guys that qualified now. This is the first of the three tournament arc that is the FedEx Cup itself.
38:52
70 gets cut down to 50 at the BMW, then we go 30 for the actual, uh, third and final tournament, which is always in Atlanta. What do you got here at the FedEx St. Jude, sir?
39:01
Yeah, uh, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna start with a initial note that, uh, Matt Brown had after, right after we were done recording long shots, and he said, "By the way, guys, thank God Keith Mitchell isn't in this field."
39:11
Oh. And completely agree. Keith Mitchell, take the rest of the summer off. Thank God. Like, uh, work on the putter a little bit.
39:17
Maybe we can come back stronger next year, 'cause your ball striking numbers were, uh, messing with my brain the whole time. This, this is a commentary on how much your model spits out Keith Mitchell.
39:25
Uh, he w- uh, like he was, he was a...
39:27
Look, I- I'll, I'll have to go back at the end of the season and look at all my numbers, but for a long time, w- one of the few things that was working well beginning of the season were Keith Mitchell top 20s and Xander Schauffele top 10s, and then, like, the putter went from bad to, like, the worst thing on the planet with Keith Mitchell, and he became very difficult to handicap.
39:45
So we'll start right there. Thank you, uh, Keith Mitchell, for not being there. What, what percentage of the audience when we say Keith Mitchell immediately thinks of former San Francisco Giant great Kevin Mitchell? 80%?
39:55
Oh, man. Yeah, probably. Yeah, okay. Yeah, probably. Something like that. All right. Um, yeah, so you get it. We got 70 guys here, no cut event, so we'll be all four rounds, everybody hanging around, uh, for this.
40:04
Um, my card pretty light this week. I'm gonna, I do wanna follow up something we talked about yesterday, though. This is usually always great to look at tho- We, remember we were talking about to win the FedEx- Yes...
40:15
uh, uh, Cup market? Yes. Oh boy, I did a deeper dive into that, though, and looked at the points in the standings. Schauff- Scheffler and Schauffele have- Are so far ahead... such a big lead- Yes...
40:26
that, like, I am, I am- It's not as fun this year... I am backing down a little bit from what I said the other day. I actually did bet Morikawa, but I kind of did it before I looked at that stuff too closely.
40:35
Morikawa, along with everybody else in the field, would have to win- Yeah... and they'd still be behind where those guys are in the standings. [laughs] So I think it's- It was our biggest omission from that conversation.
40:46
Yeah, I th- Yeah... I think that if you are... Look, if you think there, there's a guy that's gonna win here over the next two weeks that's more of a long shot, yeah, sure.
40:55
If you want to play in, a, a guy in that market, fine, because maybe he's only starting two s- two or three strokes behind Scheffler or Schauffele, but you have a 90 to 1 on him, great.
41:04
Maybe that's the only way I'd consider it. This year, though, I'd probably pump the brakes on that market and kind of ignore it, unle- unless you're just going with Scheffler.
41:11
Eh, you think Scheffler's just gonna win the thing, um, which he easily could, uh, but you're getting not even even money on that right now.
41:17
And again, part of that, for those who missed it, is in the third tournament here, it's a s- it's a staggered leaderboard to begin. Correct, yes. So you're already getting strokes. Yeah, so, so really the...
41:26
If you were able to grab the third spot, like if you're already slotting in Scheffler or Schauffele, you, you- You got a puncher's chance at that point... yeah, but you knew your guy was 80 to 1- Right...
41:35
three shots back, that'd be cool. That's a bet. Yeah, but like- Yeah... I don't know if you want, like, my Morikawa ticket at 16 to 1, three, you know, three shots back.
41:42
So, um, as far as what I did this week, like, I think if you guys are at home looking at stats modeling this event, this is actually one of the easier ones to look at. Uh, there's a lot of water.
41:50
That's where the variance comes into this tournament. But otherwise, you're looking for pr- uh, premium, uh, drivers. Accuracy off the tee is gonna be a big, uh, big time thing this week. You need heavy approach.
42:00
This is one of the most ap- uh, approach correlated courses on the PGA Tour. So you're looking at guys that are great with their irons anywhere between 125 to 200 yards. Um, really important proximity ranges this week.
42:12
Uh, you got small greens. Around the green play is gonna come in- into play. You're gonna look at guys who can scramble and around the green a little bit. I didn't really look at putting too much this week.
42:20
You got smaller greens here. These are always talked about as some of the easier greens to putt on. Um, so I kind of knocked all that, all my putting stats, uh, out of my models this week.
42:28
So re- again, really, really looking at accurate drivers, good approach players. Um, Collin Morikawa is my only outright bet this week that I made.
42:37
I think that there is so much win equity at the top of the board at this po- at this point in the season, Gil.
42:41
I know we talk about that a lot, but how well, how well Scheffler, Schauffele, Rory, especially those three, but I'll even throw Morikawa in there, how well all four of those guys have played, and have done it pretty dang consistently- Yes...
42:54
the entire year. Yes. It is tough to argue in a s- like a 70-man field with no cut that not, that one of those guys isn't gonna be around there at the end of the week, I, I, I think is, is tough to go against.
43:05
So I'm only going with Morikawa, one outright play for me this week. Shop around. I got 14 to 1. I played him in the outright market at 14 to 1. I also played him 11 to 1 without Scot- to win without Scottie Scheffler.
43:17
So you're gonna see a lot of 12s out there. If you can go 11 to 1 and knock Scheffler out of the, out of the market, I think that's a no-brainer, and you bet that, uh, as well. So went Morikawa outright, and then top 10.
43:29
Um, and then top 20 is on a few guys I like this week. Corey Conners I've be- been betting a couple times here recently. His game's really come around this summer. T9 at the Olympics.
43:37
He's got eight straight top 30 finishes going back before that. Uh, and at this course, T6 and T28 the last two years, so has played pretty well here. Like a top 20 on him. Like Tom Kim this week as well.
43:48
Played him in top 10 and top 20 markets. Uh, eighth at the Olympics. Couple good runs here over the past couple years as well. Sungjae Im, I'm interested.
43:55
That's a smaller bet for me on the top 20, but his game's been turning around a little bit. Uh, and then some match-ups. Brian Harman over Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim over Russell Henley, and Tony Finau over Billy Horschel.
44:08
Love it. Love it. Which I think I'm gonna add to that one. Tony Finau this week. You love yourself some, uh, Billy Horschel as well. Not quite as much as Keith Mitchell. I like, no, I like fade Billy Horschel.
44:17
I don't think- Oh, really? Oh, okay. He's had a couple good tournaments in a row here, and I, I don't think it's going forward. Will Hill joins us on the other side with all his, his bets.
44:23
He, of course, is the host of the Wish I Had Wagered an Additional Mount podcast, but now I have regrets. That's on the other side. Numbers Game, VSi, the sports betting network.
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