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Aug 15, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 15, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 15, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So many ways to take us in. We appreciate the way that you are doing so. It is Gil Alexander.
0:20
It is Kelly Midlin, live from Bar Canada here at the D. What's up, man? Downtown Las Vegas. How you doing? You good, man? I'm good. Yeah? Had to readjust. You look a little fidgety over there.
0:29
Yeah, I had to readjust the headset. Okay. I didn't realize, uh- Uh-huh... the hair was looking weird with it. Your hair looks p- y- dude, you never have one hair out of place. What are you talking about?
0:37
Hey, th- thanks, man. It, it bothers me though. I appreciate that, but I'm go- I'm going to the barber shop today. I think I'm gonna, I think I'm gonna cut it, cut it short.
0:43
I'm not, I'm not going JVT short, but I'm going shorter. Oh, man. Are you really? Y- yeah. This- Okay... l- as you kinda hinted at, like, this sculpting takes a while every morning.
0:51
Well, the headphones have forever changed the- Th- that, that is true. Yeah. It's like- That's ha- sadly true... it's like topiary now- Yeah... not a hair, not a haircut.
0:59
Uh, coming up on the show, Crack Man, Zack and Crack. It is Thursday. Zach Cohen with, uh, his tennis thoughts.
1:04
Also, Bill Krackenberger, unscripted, an hour number two exclusively here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, Kelly did something, uh, kinda cool.
1:13
We're gonna go through, we're just, how many different ways can we sort of analyze the NFL betting season from a betting perspective?
1:20
I thought your idea was a great one, which is let us isolate, you and I, a team that is minus 150 or higher to miss the playoffs in the make miss market, and a team that is plus 150 or longer to make the playoffs.
1:36
We'll do that coming up on the show, which is kinda cool. We'll also take a stab at some, uh, some passing stuff, which, which might not be as clean, but I like that first idea.
1:43
It might be, it might be quicker, but there fu- there's a couple fun ones on there I wanna discuss with you. There's definitely one I like. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, okay.
1:49
We, we, we might be thinking about the same exact one. [laughs] Uh, we'll get into that. Uh, first though, as we do now that the tennis tour is Stateside, we give tennis picks.
1:56
Uh, yesterday, two and one on the tennis plays. Um, ho-hum day, two and one. Picked up a unit. The day before that it was three and two, where we hit a couple big dogs, so that was a, uh, a much bigger day.
2:06
Today I have four plays. This is in Cincinnati.
2:10
Uh, someone was pointing out on Twitter, which I, [laughs] which Felika just sent me, where they were going through the, uh, the b- the, the wonderf- the wonders of the tennis tours, and talking about, you know, all the beautiful locations that all the 1,000 tournaments of the Grand Slams were in.
2:24
Uh, Paris, London, New York, Rome, Palm Springs, Shanghai, Monaco- Palm Springs?... suburban Cincinnati. Yeah. I was like- [laughs]... "Oh no, here we go. We're gonna dunk on Ohio here." No, we're not.
2:35
We're just saying it's, one of these things is not like the other. And I love the Chris Collinsworth commercials, I just wanna say. Corny as ever. [laughs] Uh, but I have, I have four plays today.
2:42
Two are on the men's side, two are on the women's side. Uh, two of these are w- kinda way better than I got 'em at last night.
2:49
All of our picks at vsin.com/picks, uh, every host, every guest, every sport, every play that we have is for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. I put in my tennis the night before.
3:01
Usually, and by the way, this hasn't resulted necessarily in wins, but usually we get the best of it, uh, CLV, closing line value. Um, in one case we did here.
3:10
So on the men's side, Pablo Carreño Busta was my play last night against Max Purcell. I got him at even money. He's, like, minus 130-ish right now. Well, minus 125 is the lowest I see.
3:21
I w- if it's any higher than minus 120, I, that's not, I wouldn't bet it. You can go ahead and do it, but it's not a sanctioned parameter bet, if you know what I mean, 'cause I got even money last night.
3:31
So even money was the play on Carreño Busta. Subscribers got that last night over Purcell. Gets better for th- though on the other side, 'cause I, I'm on the wrong side CLV of a couple of these.
3:40
Casper Ruud being the other. I got him at plus 109 over Felix Auger-Aliassime. You can get him at a better price this morning, and kind of significantly better. Um, the market really likes Auger-Aliassime. I do not.
3:54
I like Ruud at the price. Ruud is about plus 130 now, so you can absolutely go to town on that. Um, on the ladies' side, I have Anna Kalinskaya going a, uh, going up against Paula Badosa.
4:05
Paula Badosa, if you know what I mean? Yeah, Badosa. You know what I mean there, Kelly?
4:09
By the way, this is one of these tennis matches, Kalinskaya versus Badosa, where you should really watch it, if you know what I mean. [laughs] Uh, I got Kalinskaya at plus 125.
4:17
You can get a few pennies better on, uh, Kalinskaya than I did as well. Let me just make sure how many pennies. Yeah, she's, like, plus 139 I'm seeing. So you can do significantly better on that one.
4:27
So those two, Ruud and Kalinskaya, I got a much worse price last night. That usually does not happen. And then on the, uh, ladies' side, the big dog I'm taking is Yulia Putintseva. I got her at plus 275 over Coco Gauff.
4:39
She's about plus 250-something right now. You can absolutely play that still at that price. Yeah. So Carreño Busta and Ruud, although Carreño Busta's out of whack in terms of price.
4:48
Kalinskaya and Putintseva on the ladies' side. One, I can't see, I can't see that name without thinking about, like, Bruce Buffer, like, announcing, like, "Pablo Carreño Busta."
4:59
[laughs] Uh, and then, uh, wait, man, you, I, I can't wait to talk to Zach. Are, are, are all, everybody in the tennis betting world, uh, fading Coco right now?
5:08
Well- That's what it sounded like between you and Drew yesterday. Well, here's the thing. She was b- she won the US Open last year famously.
5:15
Before that on the hard court season, so after clay, after grass, the, the second hard court season, if you will, of the year, she was spectacular, and that led, was the portent of things to come with the US Open.
5:26
She's just not there. Yeah. And she has this, oh, she has this extra sort of thing where she, she gets in these fights, if you watch these matches, she gets in these little, uh, little fits with her coaches- Yes...
5:38
first of all- Yep, yep... when she's looking for help. That became a b- I mean, that became a thing, what, each of the last two Grand Slams, right?
5:44
Yeah, and Brad Gilbert's not one to, like, be demonstrative about it during the match.
5:47
The other thing is people are, e- in, in France she's gotten the worst of it in terms of calls, and so people are kinda killing her for that, which is kind of unfair 'cause she's- Yeah, right... she's justified in that.
5:56
Yeah. That was- I think... go back and rewatch those. Yeah. It, it's hard not to feel bad for her, actually- It is... on those.
6:02
Sh- she's not in top form, and Putintseva's one of these players on hard courts where if you're giving me plus 270, I mean, Coco should be favored, don't get me wrong, but Putintseva at plus 275 is ridiculous, so you gotta play that Uh, so those are the tennis plays.
6:14
Uh, Aaron Judge hit his 300th home run last night. Uh, just because I'm a baseball nerd, I like to, I like these kinds of things. It has nothing to do with betting.
6:21
Or it does have something to do with betting, 'cause Kelly has under 43 and a half home runs, and he's on 43. You're still alive, baby. Still alive, baby. Still alive.
6:29
[laughs] Pretty sure he'll go homer-less w- uh, for the rest of the year. [laughs] He got a shot. We actually shouldn't say that out loud, 'cause then you, you, poor thing, if he gets- Yeah, all right. Yeah...
6:37
poor th- poor guy, if he gets hurt, right? We're like, "Oh, no, we shouldn't have said that out loud." Yeah. Um, but Judge, 300th home run in n- in his 955th game. By far the fastest of any player.
6:50
Ralph Kiner previously, uh, the record, 300 home runs in his t- in his 1,087th game. So what's that? That's, um, f- 132 fewer, fewer games.
7:01
The problem is, is that there, is that when we throw out that stat with games, what it doesn't s- what it doesn't say is that Aaron Judge missed basically the better, uh, most of two seasons- Yeah...
7:12
with injuries, and he's 32 years old getting to his 300. Hmm. So if your brain goes to, which mine did, can he ever, could he ever break Barry Lamar Bond's 762 home runs?
7:22
I mean, he's still not even halfway there- Right... and he's 32 years old. Is it impossible? No. Is it improbable? Highly.
7:29
Uh, Barry Bonds got to 300 when he was 31 years old, at a time when he wasn't even considered a home run hitter, and only at age 31 moving forward in the next nine years, he hit over 400 home runs.
7:42
Of course, there are those out there listening to that are like, "Well, yeah, how did he hit those home runs?" Well. The, the, the, I, I'm with you, though. Not impossible. But im- Very improbable, but not impossible.
7:52
I mean, possible.
7:52
Because especially anything in today's day, I mean, say whatever you want about Barry Bonds, but, like, I mean, today's day and age of the athletes with, with some of these guys that we've seen in e- uh, every sport across the board, who knows how long Aaron Judge could be hitting home runs, Gil?
8:05
I mean, the first thing, he's just gotta stay healthy. Yeah. He, I mean, he's 32, so you, you can't lose many more seasons, you know.
8:11
By, and when I say lose seasons, like, he was playing, you know, very few games in a couple seasons. Um, but tremendous 300 in 955 games. Yeah. Had he not had those injuries, my goodness, where could he be right now?
8:22
And, and if anybody at home, and I'm sure there's a lot of people, uh, are wondering why the hell would Kelly ever make that bet- Yeah...
8:28
it's 'cause rem- rem- I don't, I don't regret it at all, Gil, 'cause remember we sat here during spring training and Aaron Judge kept telling reporters about how he had these nagging injuries- That's right...
8:37
that were gonna bother him all season long. Remember the toe injury? Yes. We were like, "Are they, are we not making enough of this?" We kept saying that, and it was like, all right, I'm gonna bet this finally.
8:44
If th- this guy who gets injured often is telling, telling the media that he's gonna be dealing with injuries throughout the year- Yeah... yeah, I, I, uh, I liked that bet. It, it blew up in my face.
8:54
That's what happens sometimes. Big trade yesterday in the NFL. Matthew Judon goes from the Patriots to the Falcons for a 2025 third-round pick. Uh, Judon and the Patriots were at a stalemate over a contract.
9:07
Um, seventh most, seventh-highest pressure rate over the last three seasons in the National Football League. The Falcons as a team are the worst team in terms of pressure rate.
9:15
If you remember when Aaron Schatz, uh, the creator of, uh, Football Outsiders, DVOA, now works at FDM, when he was on, he talked about both of these teams, and he had controversial opinions on both the Falcons and the Patriots.
9:26
The Patriots, he said, he's got them winning seven, pardon me, seven games, when their season win total was four and a half 'cause he said the defense is so good that they're going to stay in enough games to actually bleed to seven.
9:37
Now, I was skeptical of that then. Now, you know, now even more reason to be skeptical of that because now you're taking a key cog of what was their defense.
9:44
And yes, he, he did miss, uh, he did, he was out for the season last year with a bicep injury, with a torn biceps injury. So, um, you know, obviously he didn't complete last season. This is the final year of his deal.
9:56
The Falcons are gonna try to sign him beyond this year. But you remove that from a Patriots defense, that was the strength of that team. Hmm. Strength in quotes, right?
10:03
'Cause the, everybody, you know, and the market suggests they're gonna be the worst team in the league. We were talking about them being the last winless also. So you remove him from the Patriots, makes a bad team worse.
10:13
Aaron Schatz probably gonna have to change his assessment there also. And then Judon to the Falcons, remember Aaron Schatz's comment about the Falcons.
10:20
He's, his controversial take on them was, yeah, everybody loves them, and yeah, their schedule is what it is because they're in the NFC South, but their defense, he had ranked dead last in DVOA. But they got Judon now.
10:33
I loved the trade. So this is just perfect in terms of a trade for the Falcons, on paper anyway, right? Um. So one thing I did wanna check on, Christian Barmore back at practice, so that is big for the Patriots.
10:46
'Cause, you know, if you were talking about, talking about the possibility of missing him and then Judon leaving too, like that, that's a major... I mean, I, in my opinion, they lost their best defensive player.
10:56
I mean, that is w- Yes... that's how good Matthew Judon is, and that's, yes, you're right, he missed time, and this defense was still good last year. So if you are a Patriots backer- Yeah...
11:04
you do have that you can put, you can hope for. And Christian Gonzalez back, obviously. Yeah. Huge. He missed a lot of time last year as well.
11:11
Um, it's kind of funny just seeing this from Atlanta, though, 'cause you're like, "What was the plan? Before the draft-" Well, so I- "... what was the actual plan?" So I got that question on Twitter this morning.
11:20
I didn't have a chance to respond, which is, was this always their plan, go panics, and then make a trade for a defensive player?
11:25
They lost Braelon Trice, uh, the rookie third-round pick, uh, Friday night with a knee injury against the Dolphins. It doesn't sound that significant, but do they absolutely make this trade unless that happens?
11:36
I don't know. I think that's a bigger point, yes. Yeah. I mean, maybe not, right? But that happened, and so it's like, okay, let's jump in on that. Um, big trade for betting implications for sure. We'll come back.
11:48
Zach Cohen and some football props next. VSiN, the sports betting network Do not forget to check out our website, vsin.com.
12:04
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. Good Lord, I'm looking at the, uh, front page right here. Wes Reynolds on the FedEx St.
12:13
Jude Championship, the first of the three tournament arc of the FedEx Cup. Let's go Tom Kim, currently first-round lead. I got a first-round leader bet on him. Oh, there you go.
12:22
Your, your favorite, Adam Burke, talking NASCAR. You love when he, when, when Adam Burke goes NASCAR on you. Absolutely.
12:27
Uh, and of course, our buddy Zach Cohen, who gives his tennis picks pretty much daily at the website vsin.com. Check it out. And what do you know, Kelly? We got Zach Cohen right here. Cool.
12:36
The, uh, first part of the, uh, the comedy duo Zach and Crack, which appears on the show every Thursday. [laughs] Uh, Zach Cohen can be found on Twitter at BettingOnX.
12:43
He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Zach, how you doing, man? I'm doing good. How are you guys? I'm doing very well. You enjoying the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati? I am.
12:54
This is usually one of my favorite tournaments. Uh, it was a little bit of a bummer that Djokovic is out, but I, I do like this one quite a bit. Be- uh, before we get to your pick, you see Eagle last night?
13:02
She, she bagels, uh, uh, Varvara Gracheva, Gracheva, in the, uh, first set, and then she has five match points in the second, and she... I don't know what happened. She short-circuits. She loses the set.
13:16
She gaks all five of them. I mean, she wins in three, obviously, but still that was a, that was pretty interesting. Do you feel like she's taking this tournament as just a warmup for the US Open?
13:25
She pretty much said herself that she is taking it as a warmup. She said she just wants to do what she can to get herself up to speed on a faster court.
13:32
I, I kind of believe her, but at the same time, like, it is Eagle, so she can just kinda- Yeah... you know, walk her way into the final and win.
13:38
[laughs] But I, I do think that w- we're starting to see that she needs to make some improvements on, on faster courts.
13:43
She struggled at Wimbledon, uh, she struggled, you know, th- now to win the US Open, uh, uh, for a, a little bit, so she just needs to be a little bit better on these surfaces. Yeah.
13:53
Even though she's won a US Open, she's won- Yeah... a billion, thousand [laughs] tournaments on hard court. It's amazing, it's amazing the standard we, we hold her to, right?
14:01
It's, it's very interesting, and if she wins the US Open, it's her sixth, then she'll be right on pace with Serena. Um- Yep... okay, what do you got today?
14:09
Um, I have Putintseva plus one and a half sets against Coco Gauff. Oh. That's one of my big ones.
14:15
I, you know, I'm actually, I, I, as we talk about the US Open a little bit, I am approaching a point where I'm buying Gauff, just because it has gotten to a point where it's plus 850.
14:24
It was, you know, a little closer to plus 400 a few weeks ago. But I do like Putintseva to win a set today. Uh, they've played three times in the past. Putintseva's won a set in two of those three matches.
14:34
I also just think it's a really tough matchup for Coco right now. Putintseva is just kind of a backboard along the baseline.
14:39
She's going to make her play a billion extra shots, and Coco's forehand is just leaking a lot of errors right now.
14:45
I- it's a little strange watching Coco play, because obviously everyone knows that the forehand is a weakness.
14:50
But instead of, you know, just kind of, like, playing with shape and hitting that shot in the court, she's going for really small targets, hitting really big.
14:56
I, I think that maybe at the US Open we'll see her play a bit smarter, uh, just kind of go into that, you know, I, I wrote, No- Novak Djokovic lockdown mode, where she relies on her defense and relies on the crowd, you know, getting to the opponent.
15:08
So that's why I'm buying her at the US Open, but I'm fading her a bit today. Yeah, you and I are simpatico on this. You, you took, uh, I pronounced it Putintseva, I don't know, um, Puti- you, Putintseva you said.
15:18
Uh, but we're on the same player for those who are like, "Are they on the same person?" Uh- Putintseva, gentlemen, okay? I would guess that, right? Kelly, the official, uh- Kelly, Kelly been our-...
15:25
official pronouncer here... our official pronouncer. [laughs] So you took her plus a set and a h- plus a set and a half, so meaning she's gotta win a set today. I took her on the money line.
15:32
I, I'm hoping Coco gets frustrated and, uh, Putintseva's able to, able to get the win at a big money line price. Where, where else did you go today?
15:40
I also went Khachanov plus one and a half sets against Zverev, which is, you know, a tough one, because Zverev has had such a good season and Khachanov has been, you know, maybe the worst he's been since he's been [laughs] on the tour, honestly.
15:50
But I just thought that he looked like he found something in his six, uh, 6-0, 6-3 win over Francisco Cerundolo. I think that Khachanov, you know, tends to play his best tennis at this point in the year.
16:00
He's a really good, you know, fast, hard court player.
16:03
And Zverev, you know, it's not quite Coco-esque how bad his forehand is, but he does tend to struggle from that side of the court, and I think that that's what fell apart when he played Sebastian Korda in Montreal.
16:14
And I just kind of think that K- uh, Khachanov is a player that could take advantage of that. He just has a really big game, uh, you know, has a big serve.
16:20
I think he's gonna rack up his holds pretty easily, and just from the baseline, I think he's going to be able to do quite a bit of damage, uh, just, you know, targeting that forehand side of Zverev.
16:29
So if Zverev is, you know, hitting the ball off the frame of his racket like he did regularly against Korda, I, I don't see him winning in straight sets.
16:36
That is Khachanov, Karen Khachanov, spelled for the American audience, Karen. Yeah, that, that- Like you would the name Karen... let's break it down for Steve Fezzik. It's Karen.
16:46
K-H, K-H is how Khachanov starts in spelling. Yeah, Karen- I think it-... found in men's tennis betting for Steve Fezzik out there. Karen, Karen Khachanov, that's right. Yeah.
16:54
Anything else, or you wanna move to college football? I have one more- Okay... and it's a bit of a weird one. I, I have over 0.5 tiebreakers in, uh, Brandon Nakashima against Arthur Fils. Oh, I like that.
17:05
[laughs] They play- Yeah. Yeah, they, they, they, it's just, you know, they've played twice. Both matches went to three sets. Uh, three of those sets were tiebreakers.
17:12
One of them was a 7-5 that obviously, you know, should've been a tiebreaker if someone got broken late.
17:17
I just think it's two players that, you know, they, they, they're, they're not gonna have a lot of success returning one another, I don't think.
17:22
Nakashima is a really good server, really poor returner, and Fils is a player with, you know, kind of a rocket of a serve. So I just think that they were gonna see a tiebreaker in that match.
17:31
It kinda leans Nakashima winning, but I, I preferred to go with this. It was, uh, plus 105, so I, I think that we're gonna see a tiebreaker.
17:37
That's one of the great sports betting rooting moments, when you're just rooting for each guy to hold his serve the whole time [laughs] till they get to a- Ace, yes. [laughs] Yeah. Uh- Makes it easier, yeah...
17:46
Nakashima, Fils, by the way, F-I-L-S on Arthur Fils. Okay, college football. You were integral to, uh, all of our guides, but, uh, specifically in this case, the college football guide.
17:57
Which, uh, which of your You know, many things that you, uh, wrote about, would you like to talk about? I, I actually know one of them because you and Futek are simpatico on Texas A&M.
18:09
Yeah, that's probably my favorite pick for the entire season. I went over eight and a half wins for Texas A&M, and I also went over nine and a half, uh, alternate win total at plus 220.
18:18
I just think that this is a team that had a really bad game day coach a year ago. They had a great recruiter in Jimbo Fisher. Now they have one of the best game day coaches in the country in Mike Elko.
18:27
So I just think that that defense is going to be good right away. Elko has built, you know, elite defenses at Texas A&M before when he was the defensive coordinator.
18:35
Now he showed that, you know, at Duke, that he's capable of running an entire team, and I really like what they have in place offensively, honestly.
18:41
I think K- uh, Connor Wegman's one of the best quarterbacks in the country. I think he's going to be a guy that we're going to see playing in the NFL starting one day.
18:48
And I thought the hiring Colin Klein from Kansas State, uh, that's one of the best offensive coordinators in the country in my mind. They were a really good red zone team, a really good third down team.
18:57
I think that a lot of people might look at the Texas A&M schedule and say, "Oh, there's, there's a lot of really tough SEC teams on there." But at the same time, they're playing most of their tough games at home. Yeah.
19:06
And I also like that, you know, that first game against Notre Dame was one that really scared me when looking at, you know, potentially winning 10 games.
19:13
Now that Notre Dame is gonna be missing their starting left tackle, I think that it's going to be open for, you know, Texas A&M's pass rushers to get home and really h- uh, beat up on Riley Leonard, who, you know, Elko should be very familiar with.
19:24
Yeah, no, by the way, it's you and Montesano who were the same on Texas A&M, over eight and a half wins.
19:28
And to your point, Notre Dame, LSU, Mizzou, and Texas, probably the four toughest on their schedule, all have to come to College Station.
19:36
Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Auburn, those are the ones where they go on the road. So it does, as far as SEC schedules are concerned, it's about as good as you can get.
19:46
I would agree with you on that. Got it. Uh, what else? And I'm a little bit down on, I'm a little down on Missouri, too, so I, that is a game that I really expected them to win. What else you got here, college football?
19:55
My other big one, and it's kind of correlating now to a Heisman play that I've put in since making the guide, I, I like Virginia Tech over eight and a half wins.
20:03
And when I did the guide, I got it over eight, over eight, which is obviously a little bit better, but I think this is gonna be a 10-win team also, and I think that Kyron drones at 90 to 1 is a really enticing Heisman Trophy play.
20:13
I just think that that team, uh, really started to show a lot of signs once they put Drones at quarterback la- last year.
20:19
He's not a guy that can throw the football deep down the field, but he's accurate throwing, you know, short, me- uh, medium portion of the field, and he's a really good runner.
20:26
I mean, he lit up their spring game kind of following up what he did last season when he was a dynamic dual-threat quarterback. You know, threw for 17 touchdowns, only threw three interceptions.
20:35
He doesn't turn the ball over much. Then, you know, you're talking about a defense that returns 10 starters. Uh, for a defensive-minded head coach, it's a team that I just think is going to be really experienced.
20:45
I think that, you know, all in all, you know, between starters that played last year, maybe not for Virginia Tech, but including transfers, they have 21 returning starters from last season.
20:53
Also, another team with just a really, really easy schedule. I think that, you know, it's another one that plays most of their toughest games at home, which is really just...
21:01
I think that Clemson game is really the only one on the schedule that I'd be even really nervous about at home. But, and I also like Virginia Tech's chances of going at Miami, at Syracuse.
21:09
I'm not as high on Syracuse as other people are. So I, I think this Virginia Tech team wins 10 games, and honestly, I think that they're a sleeper to win the ACC. Drones, I'm seeing 90 to 1 on Drones to win the Heisman.
21:20
Was that the number? What number did you get him at? Yeah, I got him at 90 to 1. 90 to 1. That's, I, it was, I took it more recently. It was probably available at a much better number a couple of weeks ago.
21:27
But I just think he's going to light it up this season, and I do think that this is a team that's going to be on the national radar, even though they're not right now. All right, Zach, enjoy the tennis.
21:36
Good luck on all your bets. I hope, uh, you and I get it done with Putin Save It today. Yeah, thank you. See you guys later. Zach Cohen, everybody. Betting on X.
21:44
And for those who, uh, who don't know Zach, I always call Zach the, uh, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. VSiN writer and senior editor, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
21:53
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22:07
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22:20
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22:30
Vsin.com/sub- uh, /subscribe and pick the plan that works best for you. That's V-S-I-N/subscribe. Which team better than or longer than plus 150 will make the playoffs in the NFL?
22:43
Which team, uh, higher than minus 150, or one, let's call it minus 150 or more, will miss? Next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game, live at Bar Canada.
22:57
Here's the D, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander and Kelly Middle. We get tweets at Betting The Book. Always appreciate the feedback. ThreeJackH3131. Oh, he was the guy who asked.
23:05
He goes, uh, "So do we still roast the Falcons for the Penix pick? Was this their intent all along?" Talking about the Judon trade.
23:12
Uh, we still roast them for the Penix pick, yes, and this was not their intent all along. That's what I'm going with. Yeah.
23:18
Because again, if they don't have the, uh, the injury to Braylon Trice, I'm not sure they make the move. By the way, the Falcons, the last, the last player they had with a double-digit sacks,
23:30
have not had a double-digit sack leader since Vic Beasley in 2016. That was the year they went to the Super Bowl. Okay. And Judon, what was it? Last year, he had 15 and a half sacks.
23:40
No, it wasn't last year because he had his injury. Two years ago. Two years ago, 15 and a half. 2021, he had 12 and a half. Yeah, I'm with you. I, I think the, the, I think the injury is a bigger reason than the...
23:52
I, I feel like the masses are coming to this whole, "This was the plan all along" thing. It's like you're talking seventh, 15th. Like, this was not the plan all along. Like they- Yeah.
24:00
It is, it is the way- Clearly it was bu- clearly, for whatever reason, defensive end pass rusher was- Yeah Uh, a backup quarterback or their quarterback of the future i- on their priority list heading into the draft.
24:12
It is a gentle reminder, though, for all of us. It's like, you know, what is it? Uh, it's August 15th. The Ides of August today, right? August 15th. Mm.
24:19
And it's like, think about, you know, you go through a summer, just break it down, team after team after team. We did every division. Right. We did every team. And it's like, n- stuff can still happen.
24:28
Th- th- like, that's a fairly major piece to move, yeah. Fairly major piece, yeah. And even if you were high on the Falcons, this should just bump it even... You know, you just corroborate.
24:35
Oh, I'm very happy with this trade, Gil, 'cause I do have the Falcons division bet- Yeah... and then I've got Patriots under on everything. Uh, Jason D., "Not going to overreact." He sounds like a Falcons fan.
24:43
He goes, "Not going to overreact just yet. 32 years old, coming off a season-ending injury," again, it was a bicep injury, "and has no contract extension in place.
24:51
Not going to overreact yet," he says, in, uh, capital letters. I, I think if you're a Falcons fan or backer out there, that's the way you should react.
24:58
But you know what, you know the way I read into it a little bit, Gil? Is keep all of that in mind, and a third rounder, rounder was still traded for him.
25:07
Like, these days, like, that's, that, that's a fair amount of draft equity that you're, uh- Yeah... that you're giving up for a guy who's coming off of an injury at 32 years old. I j- I just, I think he is that good.
25:17
Prime time, "I'm sorry. When you referenced the big NFL trade yesterday, everyone was obviously expecting two segments dissecting the Cowboys heist of the Giants' Jordan Phillips."
25:27
Uh, J- [laughs] Jared going, going, uh, going off this season. Uh, the Cowboys are gonna be fascinating.
25:33
See, uh, Jerry now trying to, like, do the, uh, the backtracking on the whole, uh, CeeDee Lamb thing, when he's like, "We're not..." What was his, his thing on Twitter?
25:40
He's like, "We're not, we're not really, that's not really a priority right now." Remember, CeeDee- Yeah... CeeDee Lamb was LOLing it.
25:45
And he was like, "Oh," now he's like, "Of course we want, he wants to be a Dallas Cowboy, and, and, uh, and we want him to be a Dallas Cowboy."
25:51
So some of these guys that are very used to being, uh, being in front of a microphone for so many years, th- they need to figure out when it's time to, to not get in front of the mic as often and- Oh, PD will n- he will never figure that out, yeah.
26:02
Yeah, yeah. Jerry's at that point, unfortunately.
26:03
And Charles in Connecticut, yeah, "Is there a line set on the bump your ratings are going to get tomorrow 'cause you're announcing your sushi restaurant if now there should be?" It is not tomorrow. It's next week.
26:13
It's next week. It's the end of next week. Why is it the end of next week? I have no idea. Just 'cause I wanted to promote it like a boxing match. Right, yeah, exactly. That's all. Exactly. That's all.
26:21
A- and, and remember, again, we're, uh, we're, we're, we're, uh, suckering people into listening on a Friday. So [laughs] you gotta watch, you gotta watch Listen on a Friday. Sushi, baby.
26:32
I'll give my top three, by the way. Uh- I'll give a third, I'll give a two, and I'll g- and that'll be the one. What was the other move the Cowboys made? Carl Lawson, right, uh, signed today? Yeah, so ex-New York Jet.
26:41
Let's do these... This is a great prop. Uh, this is not a great prop. This is a great Kelly question, which is, all right, of the teams, talking about make/miss playoffs now in the NFL.
26:50
Of the teams that are minus 150 or longer, who's gonna miss? And of the teams that are plus 150 or longer, on the opposite side, who's gonna make? Um, which side would you like to start with, sir?
27:03
Let's go with the big favorites to make it, and who do we think is actually gonna miss? Wait, big favorites to make it, you mean? Yeah, to make the playoffs. So who's gonna miss from this group? Yes, yeah.
27:12
Ah, that's very... The word, the word salad here is very difficult to navigate. [laughs] All right, I actually, I actually feel strongly about this one.
27:19
I mean, I could've used the odds to, to miss the playoffs, but this felt more, "Let's just look at all the odds to make the playoffs."
27:25
These are f- these, these are favorites of minus 150 or longer to make the playoffs, and we're going to pick a team of this group to miss. I select the Buffalo Bills to miss the playoffs.
27:41
Oh, it's funny, we are both going AFC East. Uh, Miami- I-... Dolphins for me. Oh, okay. Interesting. My explanation on the Buffalo Bills is, is... Well, we talked about the AFC East, I talked about this.
27:51
One of the big things with the Bills is they lose Stefon Diggs. And if you're like, "Well, they can sort of replace that."
27:56
Well, Stefon Diggs did one thing very well, which was spread the field for the Bills on, on offense. And as great as Josh Allen is, they're going to need to do that.
28:06
And w- we went through the r- the other receivers on the team. Um, Khalil Shakir, when it come...
28:12
Yeah, great speed, 4.4 speed, but his average, average depth of target has been under 10 yards in each of the last two years. Was lower in an expanded role last year than it was even the previous year.
28:23
Keon Coleman, when he was at FSU, when they were playing exhibition football there for the Seminoles last year, his 2023, uh, average depth of target, 201st among qualifying receivers in college football.
28:36
Curtis Samuel, anybody who's rooted for a team that had Curtis Samuel, he's not a threat to, uh, to spread the field. And so their answer to this was getting Marquez Valdes-Scantling in mid-May. He's not scaring anybody.
28:47
So that's... I, I don't know how they really overcome that. That's a, that's a deficit on offense. On defense- I think they'll try to utilize Keon Coleman in that role, though.
28:57
'Cause that w- that's where he had a lot of success at Florida State, were those d- were those kinda deep jump balls, throw it up to him situations. Oh, no one's saying, no one's saying he can't win the jump balls. Yeah.
29:06
The problem is can he spread the field- Mm... and make it, you know, and, and then allow Allen to go to his tight ends, which he's so great at, uh, over the years with, uh, Knox and Kincaid.
29:15
So I don't l- I just think that's a problem on, on, um, on offense. On defense, they lose Jordan Poyer to the Dolphins, who you're about to talk about. Um, and the o- you know, they also had...
29:27
The one thing that Bills fans can hang their hat on is that they had a lot of injuries last year, and they still performed okay. But I don't know if you can continue to expect that.
29:36
The strength of schedule, like everybody in that division, is, is difficult. The Bills happen to have the single most difficult.
29:42
I think this is the team that gets lost in the shuffle in a crowded AFC East, where I believe, Kelly, only one team, this is somewhat controversial, only one team is getting to the playoffs.
29:53
And it's not because I don't like the division. It's because I just think it's so crowded, they're gonna beat up on each other, and only one team is gonna get there to the division winner.
30:02
And I think the division winner ultimately will be the Jets or the Dolphins
30:06
So I'm gonna say Bill's miss Well, I think that we have similar thoughts on the AFC East, it's just different teams for the answer of this question.
30:13
And it's, right, really why, why I can't even consider the Bills when th- wh- when some of this, it's just o- it's just one name, [laughs] Josh Allen. Like, I think he's...
30:21
I still think he's that good that I can't ever count that guy out. I also think it's a reason, unless I'm betting on the Bills, I don't even...
30:29
Like, I- as long as Josh Allen's in the league, it feels like at this point, I don't know that I'll be making a bet inside of this division other than the Bills. And now th- like, that is, is I haven't bet the Bills.
30:38
Hmm. I think there's enough talent in these, on these teams. I'm just staying away from that market completely.
30:43
Um- The reason I didn't go Dolphins, 'cause I think that offense is still gonna be so ridiculously good that they will continue to be a bully- Hmm... and beat so many teams.
30:53
By the way, they might not make the playoffs either, but I'd rather pick the Bills than the Dolphins in this. Are you, are y- now i- in big things, so we're talking these divisions, right?
31:00
Like, you and I both th- like, how, how many teams are coming out of the AFC North? Oh, more than one, I believe. I think it's three. I- Like, I think there's three teams. It's a- I think it's at least two. Yeah.
31:10
[laughs] I think it's three. Baltimore and Cincinnati. So like, that's really- I don't know about three, but we'll see... like, like, I think Gil and I are both gonna gravitate towards a division like this.
31:17
And because of the odds that we've, we've, you know, made for this kind of exercise, like, these teams fall, there's three teams that fall into this category, minus 150, uh, or, or higher than that.
31:28
Um, so I think it's, like, I think you're, I think you have a stacked AFC North that's probably gonna get two or three teams out of it into the playoffs. I'm, so when it comes to the AFC East,
31:39
I think you're looking at, like you said, probably one team, maybe two. I think that the Jets are the most balanced team. I do too. I think the Jets are the best team, most balanced one. Yeah. Yes.
31:50
Like, that's the, you know, like, I, I, I said everything I just said about Josh Allen. I'm not gonna make a bet. Do I think the Jets are probably the best team in this division, though? Yes, I do. I, I think that.
31:58
I do, too. Um- Hassan Redick or not. Yeah, Hassan Redick or not, I still th- I think they probably are. My question's like you, like you kind of alluded to with the Miami Dolphins.
32:07
Um, it, it's, it's look, you're already in a, in, in a tough division. We saw what they did the whole, the whole bully ball last year, right?
32:13
We always talked about them just beating up, uh, on the, on the worse opponents. They played one in six against playoff teams. And then I just have so many questions about this defense. Like, I just think they...
32:23
I understand what you're saying on the offense, and I don't really, even though I think it's gonna be tough for them to replicate that l- high level, high level of success, there's...
32:32
I, I can't really give you a solid reason why they can't. You can't- You know what I mean?... 'cause it's still Tyreek. Right. It's still Waddle. It's still A. Chad, and it's still Mostert. Mm-hmm.
32:40
And those four guys are insane. So I can't really argue that. But, like, this, this defense, it already wasn't amazing a year ago. You're talking about losing Xavien Howard, Christian Wilkins, Van Ginkel.
32:50
I thought tho- those three guys were massively important, uh, to that defense. And yes, they bring some guys in, but I don't think they're, I don't think they're replacing what they had a year ago.
32:59
I think this could be one of the worst defenses, uh, one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
33:03
And I think when we're talking about, you know, juxtaposing them against the, against the Patriots or, or the Bills and the Jets in this division at least, I think that's where they fall short.
33:12
Here's the other reason I picked the Bills in this question. And again, forced, because we asked the question. Hmm.
33:16
To which, which team of the, of the favorites might the dear Buffalo- I might actually end up betting Miami. I don't know about you, but- I might actually end up betting the Bills. Okay. Here's how the Bills start.
33:24
After they play Arizona, at Miami, home Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Houston, at the Jets, home Tennessee, at Seattle, Miami, Indianapolis, at Kansas City. Oh, boy. I don't think Buffalo's making it. I really don't.
33:37
We'll come back. We'll do the opposite of that, and we'll talk about some passing props in the NFL. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
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So head on over to winnerscircleproxy.com now and book your appointment. Again, that's winnerscircleproxy.com, VSiN's preferred proxy partner. It's Gil Alexander. It's, uh, Kelly Bidlin.
34:44
I don't, I don't wanna go through tweets, but I just wanna read this one, Kelly, from, uh, Barcomb Bets, who says, "I was at a wedding over the weekend, and so I missed out on the three-year promo, um,
34:55
for all VSiN complete access, VSiN All Access.
34:59
Will definitely be getting the yearly subscription before college football and NFL start, but wanted to check in if there was an A&G promo that I could help the boys out by using when I do. Let me know. Thank you."
35:08
We have promo requests now. I'm not sure w- uh, how it works when you sign up these days, but yeah. Hey, if they ask for a promo code, just pump, uh, punch in A&G and see what happens.
35:18
Um- The worst thing that happens is, uh, you don't get any break on the price. The best thing y- the best thing that could happen- That's right... is someone forgot about it, and you'd g- you'd get a break on the price.
35:26
[laughs] Just write A&G somewhere on there. Um, okay, so Kelly y- had a great idea again. Uh, teams in the NFL make, miss playoff market that are minus 150 or longer.
35:37
Which is the team we think will miss the playoffs of that group? And then on the flip side, which of the teams that are plus 150 or a longer shot than that, that will make the playoffs? Now, Cleave TA, our buddy.
35:48
Remember Cleave, we did this with Cleave last year. Uh, he chimes in. He goes, "I heard the intro today.
35:54
If you wanna dig even deeper," and this is the re- and by the way, Kelly might not even know how smart he was to do this, but, uh, Cleave says, "Every year since 2008, at least one team at plus 240 or higher to make the playoffs has made it.
36:08
Eight teams in the last three years," by the way, last year, Tampa four to one Uh, they were plus 400. The Rams were plus 310. Houston was plus 475. All of them made it. So those are three teams.
36:20
Uh, one north of, uh, three, uh, $3, two north of $4, or one was $4, one was plus 475. And then every year since 2007, at least one team with minus 190 or higher to make the playoffs has missed it.
36:34
Last year, Jacksonville minus 190, Cincinnati minus 285 missed it. I, I w- Those are, uh, DraftKings, uh, closing numbers.
36:41
Thank you to Cleve TA for that Yeah, I will also use his exact wording [laughs] from his guide on the w- if you wanna use it with v- uh, when it comes to win totals.
36:49
Every year since 2000, at least one team with a win total of eight or less has made the playoffs. In 20 of the last 24 seasons, at least two teams have made it.
36:58
And then a team w- with a win total of 10 or more has missed the playoffs every season since 2000. Yeah, so anybody who, who listens, they're like, "Oh, there's no chance either of those teams miss the playoffs."
37:08
Uh, Kelly and I had a duel off, uh, offset during the break, 'cause I said the Bills would miss, you said the Dolphins, and we, we battled it out, and we're not sure what the- I would pay, so, and, uh, I can't hear the word duel now without thinking about, like, the fencing in whatever castle in France, like, that went on during the Olympics.
37:23
Oh, yeah. And I would love to fence with you. I still f- I still think of, like, Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr doing actual dueling. [laughs] But, uh- They used to solve problems that way back in the day.
37:34
I know, man. Wow. Um, so these things happen, and it's, and it's also the way that our brains are wired. We, when we hear these kinds of things, let's take Carolina winless last year, or last winless team.
37:45
I bet it was 15 to one. Carolina was, like, they were, like, plus 400 to win the division, plus 475 or something to win the division.
37:53
But now that everybody sees how bad Bryce Young actually was, it sort of gets lost in the shuffle. People are like, "Oh, of course, uh, Carolina was the last winless," right?
38:02
Like, that's how we, that's how our brains are wired about all this stuff. Yep. So if the Bills, with that schedule I just talked about, Ari- I'm, I'm saying, that schedule is so difficult.
38:11
We're focused on the Steelers having this horrible gauntlet at the end, and kind of really full season. But Buffalo, this is, this is, up until their week 12 bye and beyond, dude, Arizona at home.
38:23
Okay, let's give them that one. Here we go. At Miami, home Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Houston, at the Jets, home Tennessee. Let's give them that one.
38:31
At Seattle, home Miami, at Indy, at Ka- uh, excuse me, home Kansas City, bye. Home San Francisco, at Rams, at Detroit. It never ends. They're getting to the playoffs? I don't think they're getting to the playoffs.
38:43
Josh Allen, Superman. Right about that. It's kind of f- what's kind of funny is that- You're right about that. I can't argue with you...
38:47
you mentioned the Cardinals game, and, like, Cardinals are one of the sides I have circled, like, week one. That, like, I'm like, this, [laughs] this is hovering around seven.
38:53
Like, I, I've probably betted the Cardinals week one. All right, I don't feel as strongly about this, but when we do the flip side, you're asking me a team that's plus 150 or longer to make. I went with the Seahawks.
39:06
Oh, so did I, and I have bet this one, my friend. Plus 180. I went with the Seahawks, not because I think they're spectacular, but I think their coach is awesome.
39:15
I think he's going to be great as a head coach, although you never know, right? The transition from coordinator- Mm-hmm...
39:20
uh, where he has, uh, been just tremendous, um, to head coach doesn't always work out, but we'll see.
39:26
Um, you got, like, five teams in the NFL using his defensive, uh, scheme now, including these Seahawks, which will take a bit of a transition period.
39:34
When we talked about the Seahawks, it's like you just hope Geno Smith can sort of be credible, and then you try to improve everything around him, um, both offensively and defensively, 'cause you have so many holes everywhere.
39:47
But, um, this team does have the ability, once the season progresses, you figure he will implement this, they have, they, and he will be able to implement this system to the point where they'll be able to get a lot of wins, at least on the second half of the schedule.
40:03
And so I think if I'm, if I'm forced to choose one here, I did not bet this, you did, I'm going Seahawks, because I'll tell you what, I don't love any of the other candidates.
40:12
So I kind of landed on the Seahawks by default. Yeah. This one I bet, so I bet this, so I got two to one, but this was, I've only bet it a few weeks ago, two or three weeks ago.
40:19
This one, it's one of those I, I stared at, like, almost all summer long as we were going through different NFL prep work, you know, as w- as, as we're preparing for the season.
40:27
Um, s- And part of this is just the NFC's weaker, right? Yeah, right, yeah. Part, definitely that's a big part of it. Um, but this is the one I just kept coming back to.
40:34
A- and yes, I am very concerned about their offensive line. I think that is a major issue for the Seahawks.
40:40
I'll, I'll say though, Gil, I think if they, if they have a middle-of-the-road average or even somehow above average offensive line, if that's how it ends up playing out, I think this is gonna be one of the more challenging offenses in the NFC.
40:52
I do think they have the pieces there. Um, uh, a- and they're getting the offensive coordinator over from the University of Washington. We saw what he did with Michael Penix and that offense last year.
41:02
I think that could be exciting. I think McDonald's gonna be awesome and v- and revitalize this defense. I, I do think they are a team.
41:09
A- a- and a little bit for me, it is the, I feel like there's b- there's a lot of people that are really high on the Rams this year. I'm not quite as high on the Rams.
41:16
I actually think it's Seattle that g- might, maybe give San Francisco a run for their money in the NFC West. I don't expect them to win it. But I did get a near two to one price.
41:24
Shop around, you can find that Seattle will make the playoffs. I, I like that bet. I ended up making it a few weeks ago. I keep getting back to Mike McDonald. Part of it, again, is not just Mike McDonald.
41:34
I'm so terrified of screwing up his name every time we bring it up. That's right. Not Mike McDaniel, not Michael McDonald. Not Michael McDonald. Solo career or Doobie Brothers Michael McDonald, either one. Mike McDonald.
41:45
It's not just him. It's what our eyes and our football brains don't process by watching the Seahawks on a weekly basis.
41:55
It's only the, sort of the analytics that can tell you Pete Carroll, and we talked about this when we went through the, uh, the division, but FTN did a great job about this too.
42:03
Pete Carroll was not one to take unnecessary risks on offense, which gradually transitioned into someone not willing to take necessary risks- Yeah, yeah... on offense.
42:14
Pete Carroll finished 25th out of 35 in last year's aggressiveness index.
42:21
And only four teams, this is the key point of all this, only four teams lost more win probability by kicking when they should have gone for it than these Seahawks. So think about that.
42:34
W- you, you watch the Seahawks on a daily basis. Yes, you probably have this thing about, "Oh, Pete Carroll, he wasn't the best."
42:41
But think about how much th- how, how their results could have been so much, um, so much better, dramatically so, had he been a different kind of coach.
42:52
And so now just by removal, just forget Mike McDonald for a second, just by removal, that ought to be an improvement. Mm-hmm. And McDonald, um, obviously shoring up that defense, that's gonna be the...
43:03
So I, it's the NFC, so I immediately went to NFC teams, right? Um, 'cause it's a weaker conference. And then the other choices, like if Aaron Schatz was here, he would have picked the Saints. Right. Yes.
43:14
He would have picked the Saints. But I'm not as high on, on him as, as h- his point about the Saints was the problem, the, the reason that people don't think the Saints are any good is 'cause they're boring. Yeah, yeah.
43:22
And so people don't process them as good. They're- I was w- guessing you were gonna go there, actually. No, Seahawks for me. I like it.
43:28
I like that we're on the same wave- But the other, the other ones, like everything beyond that, Steelers, schedule too hard. Commanders- Commanders... man, would I love it, but I don't know.
43:35
Obviously the Steelers are gonna make it. Like, come on, let's just be real. Cardinals- That's the correct answer... Cardinals I don't trust.
43:41
Vikings now, by the way, thank goodness Jordan Addison appears to be okay- Yeah... after he was carted off the field yesterday. But J.J.
43:47
McCarthy out for the season, we find out, which wouldn't have been a thing week one, but might have been a thing later. And then, like, r- look at that whole second column.
43:55
It, it- Raiders, Giants, Titans, Panthers, Broncos, Patriots. No thank you to any of them. Yeah. Yeah. I'll make the idiot statement right now.
44:02
In that second column, no b- none of those teams from that second column's making the playoffs. I don't think that's idiotic at all. Eh. At all. I usually, I usually make one every summer that, uh, looks idiotic.
44:13
So the Seahawks- More like Steelers... more by default on this side of it. The Bills I really feel, you know. See, I'm the opposite. I like this one better. I'm more- Oh, okay... Dolphins, uh, by default. All right.
44:23
Good job, Kelly. That was a good, that was a good exercise. Bill Krackomberger on the other side. Unscripted next on a Numbers Game at Feast in the Sports Betting Network. Thank you, Cleave.
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
