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Aug 17, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 17, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 17, 2026 | Hour 3
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46:11
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Transcript
0:00
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0:57
The Sports Betting Network. The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is The Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:11
Hour number three of The Numbers Game at VSiN, The Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
1:21
Matt Brown in for Kelly Bidlin, who's on assignment this week somewhere in Nashville, Tennessee. Uh, Matt, uh, were you invited to play on the, uh, the VSiN flag football team? I was, I was, I was not. You were not? No.
1:35
No, I think- Would you have accepted? I think maybe I've crossed the age threshold- For football... for, for them to invite me, even. Oh, yeah. You know? Oh, yeah. It's kinda like, I think it's for the- For the kids...
1:44
for the younger ones. But they- For the youngins... they wanna be able to, like, make references, and me not go like, "I don't know what you're talking about." Like, you know? [laughs] Sorry.
1:51
They, they're gonna reference TikTok, they, they saw on the TikToks, and I'm gonna be like, "I don't, I don't, I don't... " I'm not familiar with the TikToks. I don't, I don't do the TikToks.
1:57
Uh, we get tweets made in the book. Johnny Brock, "You were close, Wes Reynolds, but it's, uh, revved up like a deuce, not wrapped up. Tough line all around." Talking about the, uh- Hmm... Blinded By The Light.
2:09
Carnarsie Born 65, "Gil, I guess or make up w- I guess or make up words to songs all the time when singing to my car, but I always said Sharif don't like it. Rock the casba. I'm stunned I was right." Good for you, man.
2:21
Kevin Ryan, "Wait a minute, Gil. I thought you said Kelly was on assignment. Now you say he's actually on vacation. Now I'm back to saying he's on assignment.
2:26
I was hoping he was on assignment would bring back valuable tidbits like his pro, uh, Pro Tip commercial telling us getting minus two and a half is better than laying three and a half." That's right.
2:36
Did you do a Pro Tip? Did you get on the, on that? I, I don't get invited to or do much, uh, Gil. I'm sorry. I gotta stop asking you questions. Uh, yeah, no, no. Uh- Everything. You're not invited to anything.
2:43
Assume, assume no. Okay. [laughs] Just, just assume no going forward with all of these things. Sorry. Sorry about that. Let's do an awards. Let's do- I do, in fact, work here. The show is on the weekend.
2:51
[laughs] You know? Ready, Set, Bet with Matt Brown. Yeah, it is, it is on the weekend. Yeah. Uh, it's called Long Shots. The same as the podcast, Long Shots. Matt Brown does as well. Um, all right.
3:00
NF, let, let's do a Major League Baseball, just do MVP and Cy Young award heat check. Let's start with the easy ones. Um, let me start with the easy ones, guy- guys. AL MVP. Actually, there's only one easy one now.
3:14
The rest of them are... Well, there's two easy ones. AL MVP, Yordan Alvarez leads the American League with a 321 batting average. 36 home runs, leads the AL. 88 RBIs, leads the AL. 436 OBP, leads the AL.
3:28
622 slugging, leads the American League. 142 hits, 82 runs. That one's tied with, uh, Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox.
3:35
By the way, those stats were before last night's game, 'cause the, uh, Astros did play Sunday night baseball, so don't hold me to those. But the, all those heading into last night, he led the American League.
3:43
In, in other words, the Triple Crown stats plus. That is why he's minus 1,200. And with six weeks left in the season,
3:50
I would imagine all those say, "Well, he's gonna get injured at some point," even if he got hurt in, like, two, three weeks from now, he's winning this thing. Yes? Actually, I, I gave it even less of a runway than that.
4:00
I'm like- Yeah... if he can play 10 more games- Yeah, I think you're right... it's like, if he can play 10 more games, it puts him at 133, and he would have put up enough production that most of...
4:11
These people can't catch him anyway. Right? Yeah. I mean, like, and he would have done it in 133 games. It's amazing.
4:15
It was, it was just a short while ago, a few weeks ago, where he was short plus money and then short minus money. And I got some pushback on him, just like, he's winning every category. Mm-hmm. Why is this even a thing?
4:25
Everyone's, "He's gonna get hurt. He's gonna get hurt." It's like, that's not a reason not to bet. It, it's exactly. We- Yeah...
4:30
the, the assumption of injury, and we get wrapped up in this in football, too, like, way too much. It's like the assumption of injury is kinda like... Guys.
4:36
But if not, then, then your handicap is, like, absolutely blown out the window to begin with. Here's the other one that's easy-peasy.
4:42
And again, apologies to Chris Sale, Christopher Sanchez, and all these guys having great seasons. Mm-hmm. But talking about leading, these are... Forget the National League.
4:50
These all lead Major League Baseball with Jacob Miazgowski of the Brewers. 1.75 ERA, leads the Majors. A 150 batting average against. Is that good? 0.75 WHIP. Yeah. He's given up 73 hits all year.
5:06
All these number one in Major League Baseball, by the way. 27 earned runs allowed, 210 K's, 39.8% K rate, 5.3 WAR, all of those number one in MLB. I am sorry, Mr. Sale and Mr. Sanchez. Right. The Miz at minus 750.
5:22
It might not be high enough. He doesn't... If, if, if he doesn't exist, it's a hell of a race. And, like, we're debating, you know, Sale and Sanchez probably till the very end.
5:30
Unfortunately, The Miz does exist, and- He exists... it's, it's, it's game over. I mean, it's game over. Tom Tango numbers. Again, he's picked correctly 32 out of the last 38 Cy Young winners with his final numbers.
5:40
75.5 points for The Miz, 66.9 for s- for Sanchez. It's not close. Um, you may be surprised when we get to the AL side. Let's start with the, uh, NL MVP, 'cause this has gotten interesting.
5:54
And I'm gonna say the same thing today that I said last week, Matt, which is I think if these guys have an excuse not to give it to Shohei, they may just take that excuse. Mm-hmm.
6:06
Uh, Pete Crow-Armstrong Slash line, 276, 374, 533. Shohei slash, a little above all those, 289, 389, 542. But
6:21
Pete Rose Armstar has one more homer than Shohei, the exact same number of RBI. Um- He's stolen about 30 bags. He stole 30 bags to Shohei's seven. Yeah. So there is, there's a big PCA, uh, win.
6:35
And Shohei stopped pitching on July 3rd. He did have, listen, he had 85.2 third inn- innings where he was eight and two with a 1.79 ERA and 95 Ks. That's awesome.
6:45
He's expected to return to the pitching mound for the Dodgers early September, pending any setbacks. He's been sidelined again since July 3rd, uh, due to left knee inflammation and right biceps tightness.
6:56
I think w- the, the pitching still happened, right? I'm not saying it didn't. Mm-hmm. And it was really good, but I just believe they're hu- these human beings who are voting, and they are human beings- Yes...
7:06
let's just end, 'cause you have to stipulate that now.
7:10
I just think if they have any excuse to give it, th- to give one of these years to give it to somebody else but Shohei, they will take that opportunity, and I think this might be the year.
7:22
It was the perfect oppor- i- it is the perfect opportunity. Um, you know, I've, you and I have had this conversation over the last few years.
7:28
As long as Shohei was doing what Shohei was doing, he was gonna win it every single- Yes... every single year. Yeah.
7:31
It's just that you, you, we've never seen anyone in our era come close to doing what he's doing and doing it at such an incredible level. The fact that he hasn't pitched in so long, I did say this to you on the break.
7:43
If he, if he comes back for, like, three starts or two s- two fantastic starts- Then it tips the scale...
7:52
to go along with what he did, you know, at the beginning of the year, that might give the people just enough ammunition to say, like, "Okay." You might be right on that.
7:59
But I am a, I, I, but we're human, and like, you know, there is fatigue, and voter fatigue is a real thing. I do believe that some of these people will look at this and say, "Well, he's gonna win it next year."
8:09
That's what I'm saying. "He's gonna win it the year after that." Are, are we gonna give him 15 of these? Yeah. Or do we just, do we just, uh, hey, it's the honorary award and then everyone else gets something else? Yeah.
8:16
I'm, it's not, it's not, uh, like our golf, you know, market without Schefflers. Yeah. We don't have that with these votings, uh, with these voting situations.
8:23
So- It's like we're gonna have to invent our own offensive player of the year- Yeah... because so we can give it to a running back or a wide receiver. That's right.
8:29
It's like it's [laughs] You, you might be right though, what you said there.
8:30
If, like, what's the number of great starts he has to have at the tail end of the regular season for that brain to toggle back to, "Okay, we do have to give it to Shohei"? It's interesting.
8:42
The one that's maybe the most fascinating of them all is AL Cy Young. Cam Schlittler is minus 170 to win the AL Cy. Dylan Cease of the Blue Jays plus 135.
8:52
By the way, uh, with the MLB Futures Draft that we did here, Matt Youmans, we did, uh, Danny did a whole, uh- Deep dive... deep dive. Matt Youmans has Schlittler at 50 to 1 in the Futures Draft.
9:05
By virtue of that alone, he will win the Futures Draft- He, he will win. It'll be done... if Schlittler gets this. But here's the story. Um, and I go back to the Tom Tango formula.
9:13
You don't have to know this, but again, 32 out of the last 38 correctly identified Cy's eventual s- Cy's. Innings pitched divided by two minus earned runs plus, plus strikeouts divided by 10 plus wins.
9:25
Again, you don't have to know the formula, but what the formula conveys is that ultimately winners are most often judged by the most simple of stats, the baseball card stats, of wins, strikeouts, innings pitched, and earned runs.
9:38
And all this other highfalutin stuff that we love to talk about doesn't necessarily factor in. Here's w- how the cookie crumbles with these two. Schlittler, 152 innings pitched. He's 10 and six, Matt.
9:49
He has a 2.19 ERA, 189 Ks, 31.4%, uh, K rate. He's given up 37 earned runs. Now, three of his last nine outings have not been that great. Cease about t- uh, 20 and 2/3 innings fewer,
10:05
seven and five win-loss record, so in other words, three wins lower, 2.40 ERA,.21 worse,
10:14
191 Ks, which is actually two more Ks than Schlittler has, a higher K rate by almost 5%, 36.1%, and he's given up two fewer earned runs. His first n- he just had his first non-quality start since June,
10:29
but he had near no-hitters in San Francisco or Boston. And by the way, okay, by the way, if you take his la- if you t- if Dylan Cease, if you could take his last five road starts- Mm-hmm...
10:40
Dylan Cease's last five road starts at Fenway, at Seattle, at Oracle in San Francisco, at Fenway again, and at Wrigley. 36 innings pitched, zero earned runs, 0.00 ERA obviously, 11 hits given up, 49 Ks against 12 walks.
10:58
Unfortunately, he also pitches at home though. Yeah. I, I lean towards Cease, but again, it's, it i- it is razor thin. I mean, the, the margin's just razor thin here.
11:12
The Tango numbers, just as a guideline, I know it's not the end all be all, but just as a guideline. Mm. I just mentioned that in the NL, the dominance of Mizejewski, it's Miz 75.5, Sanchez 66.9.
11:24
Again, this, these ultimately have picked 32 of the last 38 Cy's. Do you know that it's wider in the AL? Which I found shocking. Schlittler 67.9% using that formula. Mm-hmm.
11:38
Innings pitched divided by two minus earned runs plus strikeouts divided by 10 plus wins. Schlittler 67.9, Cease 56.8. In other words, by the Tango numbers, it's not even close. But we are humans,
11:54
and if Cease, in my opinion, you just said the thing about Shohei. Mm. If Shohei came back and had two more great games on the mound, would it tilt back to Shohei?
12:02
Cease flirted with a no-no in San Francisco, flirted with a no-no in Fenway. If he flirts with one more no-no or actually throws one, I don't care what Tango's numbers are. No. I think it tilts towards Cease.
12:13
But he's gotta do it again. Yeah, I just, again, it, it's razor, razor thin. Yeah But you look, I mean, tiny little things here and there. Dylan Cease's BABIP against is a little bit higher than Schlittler's is.
12:27
You know, like, I mean, there, there's things like that where I think could, could... If they really wanted to dig super deep, like I said, they don't stay with a little bit surface with all this.
12:36
It's gonna be interesting how it goes. Right now, again, Schlittler minus 170, Cease plus 135. Everybody else, 28 to one or longer. The Sonny Grays and the Drew Rasmussen of the world.
12:47
Adam Burke joins us next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
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13:17
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14:10
Uh, Shrek McPhee has tweeted, and he goes, "Uh, seems like this isn't getting enough attention, Gill. CMC has missed his seventh consecutive practice with quote, 'tightness,' unquote. 2024 vibes," he says. Substation.
14:25
[laughs] Every time. Substation. Yep. That's it. Gotta be it. Gotta be it. Paul Morphy. Not Murphy, Morphy. It was absolutely She Don't Like It. Must've been a clean version released in the South, as opposed to Sharif.
14:42
Talking about The Clashes, uh- Oh, She Don't Like... Okay, so- The Clashes- All right... Rock the Casbah. Got it.
14:45
And then Jeremiah Crow over at The Win says, uh, "Electric Light Orchestra, Don't Bring Me Down, that the actual word is 'groos' that they say in that song. A made-up word. People s- think it's Bruce." Ah.
14:57
A lot of those, man. Uh- We just, we just said a few that were just dumb... yeah, that, that, all of them. The, yeah. Yeah. Some of these were dumb. Not worth repeating. Yeah.
15:05
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's as ornery as ever because he thinks I'm going to, uh, talk smack about his Guardians. It's Adam Burke, the glue that holds this whole operation together.
15:13
You can follow him at Twitter, or on Twitter, @skatingtripods. Adam, good morning, sir. Hey, what's happening, boys? How we doing? Uh, we're doing very well.
15:20
Listen, I only had to wait a year and three quarters for the Guardians to finally have a swoon. You hate this team, don't you? Tell them. Uh, yeah.
15:29
Um, they're, they're a remarkably hard watch, and honestly, I was thinking about it today. I think the worst thing about this season is how bad Travis Bazan looks at the plate. You know what I mean? He l- yes.
15:39
You love to- You can't get one-one wrong. You just can't do it, and there's tons of development time left for him, but
15:47
based on kinda the guys who were taken around him and based on how he looks here so far, uh, the Guardians may have made the wrong pick there.
15:53
And when you get gifted that spot, as a team that doesn't spend any money whatsoever, you can't get that one wrong. And man, his Baseball Savant page does not look good. [laughs] Does not look good. You, you have a prop.
16:08
Let's get to your picks first. You got a prop in this Marlins-Phillies game? Yeah, this one's actually gotten a little bit better, uh, since I wrote this one up here this morning.
16:15
It's Jansen Junk of the Marlins over one and a half walks allowed. This one's up, out to plus 159 now, uh, DraftKings. It was plus 151 when I wrote it up here this morning.
16:25
Uh, look, he's a guy who doesn't walk a whole lot of people, so it's understandable that this one's at plus money.
16:30
But in six starts since coming off the IL, he has walked two plus guys in three of them, so 50% hit rate on this one right now.
16:38
Um, but look, you got Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott all well above average walk rates against right-handed pitching.
16:44
A guy who has a higher walk rate on the road, higher walk rate against left-handed batters on the road. You know, he just has a little bit more of a safety net at Loan Depot Park when he's pitching at home.
16:54
I think maybe he nibbles a little bit here tonight. His zone percentage is down 4% on the road compared to at home. Uh, gonna be humid tonight in Philadelphia, maybe some grip issues on the baseball.
17:04
I think this one's worth a shot here tonight. Jansen Junk of the Marlins over one and a half walks allowed, now out to plus 159 out there at DraftKings. We got a double header today between the Cardinals and the Reds.
17:15
Both teams, by the way, playing eight games this week, so eight-game weeks for both of the Cardinals and the Reds. You are looking at the second game of the double header.
17:24
Yeah, I typically don't like to play game two so far in advance because you never know what happens in game one, right? You don't know who's gonna get hurt- Hmm... what the bullpen usage may look like, stuff like that.
17:33
Uh, but I wanted to jump on this one.
17:34
This is a line that's actually gotten a little bit better and moved against me as well here, uh, with André Pallante on the mound for the Cardinals tonight, Rhett Lowder going for the Reds. Couple of things here.
17:43
I mean, this is largely anecdotal. I, I don't have any evidence to support this, but I would think it's easier to play a day-night double header as the road team because what would you be doing anyway? Right?
17:55
You'd just kinda be chilling in the hotel or getting to the ballpark early or something like that.
18:00
So I think a long day like this kinda favors the away team a little bit 'cause the home team, you know, you got all the familial obligations when you're playing at home and stuff like that.
18:09
Uh, but also, I just think big pitching advantage for the Cardinals in this game tonight. This is not the kinda guy that you wanna face i- in Pallante in, in the second game of a double header.
18:18
Pitch-to-contact guy, very extreme ground ball rate, elite defensive team behind him. It's hard to string hits together after a long day, and that's what the Reds are gonna be asked to do here tonight.
18:29
Not to mention, I mean, the Cardinals should just be more engaged, right? I mean, you know, they're in the wild card hunt, three and a half back starting play today. The Reds are seven back.
18:38
You know, run differential in the minus 80s. They're just not a very good baseball team. So I like the Cardinals here tonight. I don't really believe in Louder's recent run here.
18:46
Still has a double-digit barrel rate over his last four starts, despite allowing only two earned runs in all four of them.
18:53
I'm not really a big fan of him, and I just think, you know, the Cardinals have a deeper bullpen as well, you know, when you look at the context of a double header.
19:00
So I went ahead and took Arizona here-- or excuse me, St. Louis here today, uh, in game two of this double header in Cincinnati. Adam, uh, Fenway. We have an interleague game between the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox.
19:11
Red Sox famously won 27 of 30. Since then, they have lost seven of nine. Ah, baseball, we love you. Diamondbacks, one game out, speaking of the wild card race in the NL, one game out on the outside looking in.
19:26
What do you got today in this one? Yeah, I'll lay it today with the Red Sox. I mean, I've never seen anything like the season that Bryan Bello has had here for the Red Sox.
19:37
10.35 ERA as a starter in 35 and two-thirds, and 48 innings as a reliever, pitching in bulk relief, a.75 ERA. [laughs] That's amazing.
19:48
So I, I, I don't know, like, what the deal is with relieving for him, but he's certainly been much better in that role than he has been as a starter.
19:55
Alec Gamboa's gonna open here today for the Red Sox, but he's not, like, a traditional opener. He can actually go multiples if you want him to.
20:03
So it's kind of a piggyback-ish type of situation here, uh, you know, for the Red Sox. Arizona, another team that, you know, doesn't have a super, super high payroll. They love to use platoons and stuff like that.
20:14
An opener kind of derails that a little bit with the lefty Gamboa, the righty in Bello. Uh, but also Mitch Brat is staring down the barrel of a lot of negative regression here.
20:25
This is a guy who does not have good strikeout to walk ratios, uh, pitches to contact, doesn't miss a whole lot of bats.
20:32
When he's not missing bats, he's missing the strike zone or hitting, you know, the meaty part of the bat.
20:37
So I guess it's a good spot for the Red Sox to kind of bounce back a little bit here offensively against a guy that is going to a very good hitter's park.
20:44
Not that Chase Field isn't, but you know, climate controlled and all those kinds of things.
20:49
For a guy who already has control and command issues, now going and pitching outdoors in a historically great offensive venue, I think it's a pretty tough spot here for Brat.
20:58
So I went ahead and laid this number with the Red Sox here today, up in that minus 135, minus 140 range. Adam, you... Oh, I'm sorry, go ahead. No, I was just gonna say, uh, with...
21:08
I didn't wanna switch gears, so if you have a baseball question, go, go right ahead. No, no, no. It's football. Go.
21:11
I was gonna, I was gonna say, um, good to have you on as the, uh, proprietor here of our, of our college football guide as the, uh, the AP poll has dropped, Gil. Oh.
21:20
Our first AP poll, 'cause, you know, we know how good these teams are before they've ever played a snap. Very exciting. Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, your top five.
21:30
40 first place votes for Ohio State, 14 for Oregon, none for Georgia, six for Notre Dame. You get to sixth, where Indiana is, they get eight first place votes, but are fi- but finish at sixth there in the poll.
21:41
To round out the top 10, Miami, A&M, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. So we get first place votes for Oklahoma, uh, for Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Indiana. Miami gets a first place vote as well.
21:55
What do you think of, uh, what do you think of preseason polls, buddy? Uh, well, I, I, I think that, you know, it's kind of interesting to get sort of a lay of the land of what kind of the masses may end up thinking.
22:07
You know, we know, the people who take sports betting seriously and, you know, people who listen to us, people who follow us, people who work for us, we know the polls are pretty irrelevant.
22:15
You know, they don't really matter. But they do matter to some people out there, kind of the more casual sports bettors.
22:20
So maybe they will get kind of fooled at times into thinking the teams are better than they're going to be or something like that.
22:25
Um, I have Ohio State number one in the country by a half a point in my power ratings, Notre Dame number two, Oregon number three, Indiana four, Georgia five, tied with Texas.
22:35
So, you know, that's kind of my top five here. But again, like you said, I mean, there's so much turnover in college football.
22:43
A- and really it's all about how quickly these teams can gel, you know, if there's not a lot of continuity year in and year out. And that can be a really, really hard thing.
22:51
I mean, Indiana, historic season, lost a lot of production, a lot of really, really talented players. And that's a program that's not really used to doing that. Ohio State is used to doing that.
23:01
They're never surprised when they lose a bunch of top guys. They kind of bring back a lot more than you would think an Ohio State team would. So I get it. I understand the hype.
23:10
Um, I personally don't think Ohio State is gonna wind up winning the Big Ten. Um, but, you know, again, th- these polls are... They're gonna change a lot over the first few weeks of the season, for sure.
23:20
Do you have a Heisman thought or play for us, Adam, before the season starts? Um, you know, that's something I'm still kind of digging into.
23:28
It's, it's a market that, you know, obviously there's a lot of hype based on the guys who are coming back, and maybe a lot less hype about the guys that we maybe don't know a whole lot about yet.
23:37
And those are kind of the guys I like to look at, kind of the long shot prices that may get better as the season goes along, as opposed to, you know, holding my money for six months on a, you know, guy who's in the seven to one range, something like that.
23:49
Yeah, CJ Carr of Notre Dame, the short shot heading into the season at seven to one. There's Arch. Arch Manning of Texas, plus 750. Dante Moore of Oregon, 11 to one. And, uh, Darian Mensah of Miami at plus 1150.
24:00
Everybody else 12 to one or longer, starting with Julian Saint, and there's Trinidad Chambliss hanging out at 13 to one. Interesting thought there.
24:08
Josh Hoover, of course, quarterbacking Indiana, also at 13 to one this season. Adam, appreciate it very much. Thank you so much. Have a good one, boys. Adam Burke, everybody, at Skating Tripod.
24:20
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24:51
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25:05
Bet sharp, look square. It's Gil Alexander live from, uh, Circa Resort and Casino. Matt Brown here as well. And, uh, what do you know? We have the creator, the founder of UNgamgled on with us right now.
25:16
Drew Tabor joins the program. Drew, good morning to you. Morning. How are you? I'm doing very well. I was talking a little bit, uh, with you off-air about this.
25:26
You must be very excited about the evolution of your product at this point. Oh, yeah. This is, this is gonna be a big fall for us. This is big. And how long have, has UNgamgled been in existence?
25:38
Uh, so I started it about five years ago. Um, obviously sports betting was, uh, relatively newly legalized in the US, and so it was kind of the Wild West when I started it. It's a,
25:49
a little more settled at this point, not fully settled obviously with prediction markets and stuff, but, uh, as far as FanDuel and DraftKings and MGM and the like are concerned, um,
26:00
they're humming along pretty well at this point. All right. Mathematically proven hedging strategy, 100% legal, win with math, not luck. As I mentioned, you can get 10% off with code VSIN at ungamgled.com/vsin.
26:10
So I'm gonna just read this, which I read earlier, which is a math-backed, UNgamgled, a math-backed platform and educational service, uh, that teaches sports bettors how to systematically extract profit from sportsbook sign-up bonuses and promotions through hedging while avoiding account bans.
26:24
Talking about bonus hedging, account longevity, math-driven, as I mentioned.
26:28
Can you tell me the moment, maybe it was because you had an experience in your betting life, where you ha- where the light bulb turned on for you about this product?
26:40
So it was really, uh, my very first exposure to legal sports betting. A buddy of mine from college, uh, this was the Super Bowl 2021. So I live in Virginia.
26:50
Sports betting's been legalized for, like, a month at this point.
26:53
Uh, he shows me, like, you sign up for DraftKings, you sign up for FanDuel, you bet opposite sides of the Super Bowl, and you walk away with, like, $500 cash. I was like, "Okay, I know what arbitrage is already.
27:04
I've never seen it where you could do it for hundreds of dollars in a couple of hours," right? And so to me, that was, you know, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. The industry's brand new.
27:16
There are no incumbents. Uh, some of the other websites I looked at, and I was like, "I know I can build a better website than this," and, uh,
27:24
yeah, ba- basically took it and ran with it, and now here we are five years later.
27:29
Um, so let me, let me ask for, like, a specific example, 'cause you said bonus hedging focuses on turning promotional offers and new user bonuses into guaranteed cash.
27:37
We talk about that quite often, not, not every day, but we talk about it quite often on the show. Can you walk us through a specific example of that?
27:45
Let's say you get a bonus, then walk me through the monetization of that, if you would. Right. So, uh, let's, let's use an NBA game, um, because there's no ties. It makes it more straightforward.
27:57
So, uh, let's say you have a $1,000 bonus bet. You're gonna bet that on the underdog and calculate your payout. Now you take that payout, and you reverse engineer a cash stake at a different sportsbook, okay?
28:11
So what that means is you place down two bets on the opposite side of a game.
28:15
Exactly one of them wins, exactly one of them loses, and it doesn't matter which one wins because whichever one wins, you're gonna win enough money to cover both of your stakes plus a profit margin.
28:27
And, and- So that's the simple version of it. Uh, what we do is we do that over and over and over through all of the new account bonuses that the, the recreational sportsbooks send you.
28:37
And really, the unique value of our product, uh, beyond what a lot of other services do is,
28:44
uh, we calculate the bets to place such that the recreational sportsbooks think your account is square, which means they send you even more bonuses- Mm-hmm... and the bonuses are even higher value.
28:55
And in a few cases, for our higher bankroll customers, we've been able to get their betting limits raised in the first six to eight weeks or so. I, I, I wish you tremendous luck with the product.
29:06
UNgamgled, again, is the name of the product. Ungamgled.com is where you can find it. Um, Drew, so you envision this, there you see it on the screen, ungamgled.com/vsin, 10% off with the code VSIN.
29:18
You envision this targeting more, uh, sort of newish bettors and new bettors, recreational bettors, rather than the sharpest of the sharp who might know this already.
29:27
Is that fair, or would this include the entire betting pool? Uh, I would say it could target the entire betting community.
29:36
The two, uh, demographics we're looking at that kind of have the most to gain are, uh, new bettor- partner bettors.
29:42
So you get your, you know, your wife's account, your sister's account, your mom's account, whatever it is.
29:48
Um, you run through all of them, and you can make, uh, thousands, maybe low tens of thousands of dollars from all the bonuses. So that's sort of one demographic that has a lot of value.
29:57
And the other ones are professionals or, or syndicates, uh, where they don't actually care about the bonus value.
30:03
They just wanna have their accounts profiled as square so that they can bet thousands of dollars a time on their EV bets. All right.
30:10
Um, and then the recreational gamblers kind of in the middle, uh, we haven't found a great way to serve yet, but, um, we're sort of keeping that back of mind for now.
30:19
Drew, uh, um, really good luck with this, and, uh, we'll help in any way we can, uh, starting with the 10% off with code VSIN. Again, UNgamled, uh, UNgamgled, pardon me, ungamgled.com/vsin.
30:32
Uh, thank you so much for joining the show, Drew. Yeah. Thank you. Thanks for having me. Drew Tabor, everybody, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, ungambled.com. We got tweets beating the book.
30:43
This is from, uh, Rucky Panda. Uh, "Could you get Jensen Lewis on to discuss the getaway day games? I have so many questions."
30:51
We've actually talked to Jensen about this on this show, because obviously he played the game at the highest level. Hmm. Was the closer for the, uh, for the Indians at the time.
30:58
Um, it's always fascinating, uh, 'cause I always ask him about stuff like r- pitchers who have a lack of run support historically or have great run support. Thing, not a thing.
31:09
Like, all these baseball m- matters of lore that you hear as fans or as bettors, any truth or wisdom to it. So next time w- uh, Jensen is on, I will happily talk to him about that.
31:19
Jensen Lewis, co-host of By The Books, which precedes us here with Dave Ross. Freedom, Kyle Manchip [laughs] "Thanks, guys. All been singing for the past two hours as Sharif don't like it."
31:28
[laughs] Sorry, sorry about that. That's gonna happen.
31:30
And I Heart SEC Podcast, "If you don't follow the SEC, bet college football and just want a better idea of what to expect this season," he says, "check out my podcast, the I Heart SEC Podcast."
31:38
Well, I tell you what, uh, I Heart SEC, uh, Wyatt Tomchek, our buddy, has us, uh, getting in the SEC survivor pool. I'm very pumped for that. Oh. Yeah. Really now? I think you have to pick, like, two SEC games a week.
31:51
Hey, maybe get Matt Brown on the email. [laughs] Guess what? Another thing I wasn't invited about. I mean, this is another thing I wasn't invited to. And you actually attended an SEC school. I did.
31:57
W- another thing I wasn't invited to. Yeah, the interesting thing, I guess, uh, Jensen obviously has friends that, that played with her. Jensen was a reliever, so I think it's a little bit different- Yes...
32:06
than, than kinda what we're doing with the handicapping here, which we're kinda like...
32:09
It's just these starters, I would imagine, like, you get off your clock, you get off your thing that you're normally doing, you know, and all of that.
32:15
And w- but I'm, you know, obviously he's talked to guys in the bullpen as to like, "Hey, man, you hate, you hate day games?" And they're probably like, "Yeah, I hate day games," or, "Doesn't bother me." Yeah.
32:22
Whatever it is, you know? Something like that. Did you have any, uh, quirks? Well, it's, it's, it's different, uh, young, when you're younger 'cause, like, you just play whenever. Nothing, nothing bothers you.
32:31
And there's no, yeah, the, the way, and there's no- Yeah... they just play whenever the fields are ready, you know what I'm saying? [laughs] Yeah. It's basically like, like stuff like that, right?
32:38
So you don't get in a rhythm where these guys, like, it's typically, you know, your, your 7:05s, you know, over and over and over and over and over again.
32:44
And you're just like, "Okay, I'm, I gotta be ready by 5:00," you know, whatever and all that, so. What is, what is your, uh, you are a grad of LSU. I assume you graduated, man. Yeah. Um, an alumnus of LSU.
32:56
Ooh, I have some news for you too, so. Oh. Your, your- Well, I was gonna ask you, what is your, what is your prognosis on LSU this year? Your... Yeah. Uh, I am,
33:06
maybe I'm, maybe this is, like, my heart talking, but I mean, if you go and you look in at just the roster, now
33:12
the sum of the parts still has to play out on the field, but they went and spent a jillion dollars in the, in the pool, you know? I mean, went and bought every transfer, basically, that you can. Wow. Wow.
33:21
Number one offensive lineman, several top 10 defensive players, all this. So again, they've gotta gel on the field and they've gotta put it together then, but the actual talent on the field should be there.
33:32
And as long as Sam Levitt, who again, they say is healthy, is looking like the Sam Levitt when he was at Arizona State, you know, the, the good year, not the bad year they got hurt,
33:42
they should be able to, if you believe in Lane Kiffin and being able to kinda rally the troops and things like that, they should, I think, be able to, to, to compete. And you know, I mean,
33:51
it's the SEC though still, and they're gonna play tough games week in, week out, and it's very kind of, it's gonna be very tough to make it through. But I will say this. Playoff team or not? I would say this.
34:01
If they don't make the playoffs, it will be act- I think it will be, like, a bad season. Like, I think it will be viewed as a disaster- Oh, for sure...
34:10
with the money that they spent and all the things that they brought in and all that, it's gonna be terrible. So your San Francisco Giants, this is according to Jeff Passan. Uh-huh.
34:18
They are calling up left-hander Matt "Tugboat" Wilkinson. Oh, that's exciting. Matt "Tugboat" Wilkinson. He is, uh, he is, he's given up just 59 hits in 90 innings. [laughs] That's good.
34:31
Down in the mi- that's, that's very, down in the minors. Struck out 96 over those 90, but Tugboat's coming up. They could use some good news. [laughs] Tugboat is some good news, for sure. Yeah.
34:41
I don't know if this, uh, I don't know if this Buster Posey thing's gonna work out or not. You're back here. You're gonna miss out on Tugboat bobblehead night. Yeah.
34:48
You know, you could've gone to Tugboat bobblehead night. I'll tell you what's definitely not working out, the Tony Vitello thing is not working out.
34:54
[laughs] Um, anyway, thanks to, uh, Drew Tabor for stopping by from Ungambled as well. Wish him luck with the, uh, product. We will come back. We will recap the bets.
35:01
By the way, the one tennis play that has gone off already is, uh, Thiago Agustin Tira-nte. He won the first set in a tiebreaker, so we're up a set in that one for those who played along. We shall see.
35:15
Uh, the other plays later in the day, we'll recap all those next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
35:19
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:35
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Matt Brown in the hat, in the hizzy. 15 more minutes. They didn't kick me off the, the desk for this, for this show.
35:47
You, you are back here on Wednesday. On Wednesday. There's a gap. Sorry about that. It's, yeah. So we had the, we had the Beating the Book Podcast Q3 thing already happening.
35:56
Well, yeah, and then there was the, yeah, but yeah. I mean, I was al- I was always on the, on the schedule with a gap, so there's your gap. [laughs] I'll be back in on Wednesday. You're the gap guy. Yeah.
36:05
Uh, let's see here. Let's, uh, update the, uh, tennis plays. Three tennis plays.
36:09
Uh, as I said earlier, Thiago Agustin Tira-nte won the first set against Martin Landaluce, I believe is how you pronounce that, uh, on serve in the second set, minus 134 favorite. Let's see if we can't get that home.
36:20
Forever known as T18 now. T18 as Matt- Mm-hmm. Yeah... dubbed him earlier. [laughs] T18. Is FAA, what was the, uh, who was the golfer that you guys tried to make a thing?
36:28
And I, on Primetime Action, I was like, "Nobody's gonna do that." [laughs] EVR or something like that? Oh, yes, yes. Yeah. Eric Van Royen. Yes, yeah. Yeah. EVR. Well, that's not gonna work, guys.
36:35
The, T18's not gonna work. No. But you know, it's, we, we can for today. Just for today he can be T18. Just for today. T18. T18, get Home Forest. [laughs] Uh, two on the ladies' side coming up. Clara Tauson.
36:44
I don't know, maybe has, maybe she's started already. Plus 203 versus, uh, Linda Noskova. Towson's a big dog in that one, but, uh, I don't understand that price. That has not started yet.
36:53
And, uh, the one that's about to start, I believe, next, Sorana Cirstea, who is a slight favorite against Anna Kalinskaya.
37:00
I actually haven't checked how these have moved, and I probably should because yesterday, as I mentioned, in a very bad day of tennis, uh, which took a while for that to happen, but it did yesterday, had one move over 50 cents in our favor,
37:13
doesn't get home. The, the big CLV ones, it just seems like they never get home. It's the, uh, it's the feeling too good about ourselves 'cause we're like, "Ha! Got on top of that one." Yeah. "Look at that."
37:25
Yeah, I know. And then it's just like, "Oh, never mind." Not good. The wheeling, you know? By the way, Iga to win the US Open. Uh, she wins Toronto, Iga unlocked. Seven to one. Get it.
37:34
She is currently, uh, tied with, uh, Sakkari. She loses the first set 4-6, wins the second one 6-1 like she normally does. You know, it's like I'll drop this first one then come back and just pound you in the second one.
37:46
She, she good. Yeah. She good. By the way, Towson plus 202, still playable. You even get a, a couple, a p- oh, a penny worse than I got, so it's right there. Cirstea's minus 130. Yeah, that one moved a bunch.
37:57
Um, I would not play it at minus 130. I'd play minus 125 highest on Sorana Cirstea. You, sir, you had a couple baseball plays.
38:06
Yeah, so we're gonna play the over, uh, in the Pirates, in the Pirates game here against the, uh, Detroit Tigers. This is Framber Valdez going up against Carmen Mims.
38:16
This is two guys that are really, really struggling here over the last month and a half. I mean, we're talking not just bad numbers, we're talking really, really bad numbers.
38:25
These are over, uh, like both guys over 11% walk rates. Both guys sub-16% K rates. These are things that you just can't get away with in the majors for, for very long.
38:36
And with it only being an eight, I mean, we could be looking at one of these teams getting six or seven runs off of one of these guys alone. So like that one a ton.
38:43
Giving up tons of hard contact with specifically with Mims, you would talk about 55% [laughs] hard contact over his last five starts. Just- We, we could do that. Yeah.
38:52
A dude that literally they, they put him into the bullpen 'cause they didn't have room for him anymore, and then now with, with, with the injuries, they have to pull him back out of here.
38:58
So, uh, eh, didn't really want him to be in the rotation as it was anyway. Take the over eight on that. And then me and Greg Peterson here on the, uh, Braves- Yeah... at minus 120 over the Twins.
39:07
Now that number, a few pennies here and there in our favor, but I mean, y- it's still bettable. I think at FanDuel it was like 123 I think we said, something like that.
39:15
But Martín Pérez, pretty good here over the last month and a half. His stats are way better- God... in the over... I know, dude, I don't even get it. Martín Pérez. I was betting on Martín Pérez- Dude... in like 2012.
39:26
I don't even, I don't even get it.
39:28
It's like, so the, the season long ERA is sub-3, but it's like it's backed up by like a 3.8, which again is nothing to sneeze at in today's Major League Baseball, but then the last five starts, a 1.08 with a 3.04, uh, a, a solid WHIP with, with a one even WHIP.
39:44
I mean, there's a lot of things to like here about Pérez going up against this, uh, Minnesota team, so like the, like the Braves as short favorites here on the road. All right, maybe 2013.
39:52
Maybe I didn't do his first year. Mm. Uh, Greg Peterson, as you mentioned, his Fab Five on the show today.
39:57
By the way, all of Greg's picks, like all of our picks, every host, every guest, every sport at vsan.com/picks for subscribers. It pays to subscribe. Greg's Fab Five, he's on the Orioles-Rays over 7.5.
40:08
The Orioles going for the four-game sweep of the Rays, who were, uh, getting fat in Sactown off the Athletics, and they came back, played a real baseball team, not so much.
40:19
Uh, he's on the over 7.5 in the, uh, Birds-Rays game today. Then the Mets, uh, he's on the Mets versus the Padres. Both teams having really good months.
40:26
Padres having the best month in August at 11 and 4 atop the standings in the month of August. But the Mets, going nowhere, looking good of late. He's on the Mets.
40:36
Braves, like with Met, he is on the Braves, Greg is, minus 120 versus the Twinkies. Uh, under in the Chicago battle today, north side, south side. Uh, actually, other way around.
40:46
South side, north side between the White Sox and the Cubs, under 8.5 for Greg. And then he's on the Rockies run line, plus 1.5 plus 140 versus the Dodgers, today's game, uh, between those two squads.
40:59
Wes Reynolds, uh, he's on Quinn Matthews over 13.5 outs recorded in game one of the Cardinals-Reds double header today. This is a five-game set beginning with a double header today between the Cardinals and the Reds.
41:12
And then finally, Adam Burke was on with us.
41:14
Uh, he's got Jansen Junk over 1.5 walks plus 151 for the Marlins today, and then he is on the Cardinals at the Reds, but he is going with game two in that double header, the rare game two play from anybody.
41:27
And then Red Sox minus 140 at Fenway today versus the Diamondbacks. Playoff implications for both clubs in that one. Only six weeks left in the season. Uh, before we go today, I wanted to ask you- Yeah...
41:38
'cause you are, uh, you are a part of the brains, can I, can I say this? Part of the brains behind the Survivor documentary series. Sure. Circus Survivor. Sure. The quest for 18.7 million. Um, we are what?
41:49
Through four episodes now? We are through four. Uh, seven total. So, uh- Episode five is g- released- Every, every Wednesday, uh, 9:00 Eastern for the rest of the season here. And so it is, uh...
42:02
Yeah, I mean, we're, we're getting into the real, the real of it now, right? Because we, we've, we've really shed a bunch of the entries.
42:09
This is where people start to look at things and start to see, like, "Okay, do I actually have a path to get this done?" And you and I both know how s- things end up with, with, with the- Everybody has a plan...
42:19
with every... Yes, exactly. [laughs] Till you get punched in the face. Yeah, yeah. So- Yeah... you know, for those that don't remember, I won't spoil it or anything, but yes, I mean, it's, it, every...
42:26
There was a lot of people who were feeling very, very good for a hot minute, and then, uh, things just, uh, absolutely go sideways. Yeah. Um, how many, you personally play these as well, by the way. There it is.
42:38
Watch live on VSAN. New episodes every Wednesday at 9:00 PM Eastern, as Matt said, or watch all the episodes at YouTu- at the, uh, VSAN YouTube channel. Yeah. They're quick watches, by the way.
42:45
So if you're like, if you're down these episodes, I mean, they're, they're 22 minutes, so yeah, you can just- They're real quick... watch them, yeah, on a treadmill or something like that.
42:51
Where are you in terms of your personal entries into all of these contests now? Yeah, I mean, I did 10 last year. I'll probably do 10 again this year. Um- For which? Survivor? Yeah, yeah. What about Millions?
43:00
I do one, no. That's how I am with Millions. I got to the point where it's I understand it's a contest, and so, like, I've gotta get, you have, I have to change my mindset. But, like,
43:11
you know, I, and we've done tons of programming together. I'm not a volume bettor, right? Like, I, I bet the, the bets that I like- Mm-hmm... and I'll, I'll bet 'em pretty heavily.
43:19
But, like, I'm not a- You're, you're a feast or famine guy. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. I am not a volume bettor.
43:23
I'm not going, you're never gonna tune in and I have g- nine bets i- on, on nine different games where it was very tough for me to find five a, games a week that I liked, you know?
43:31
And then, so then if I had two, a, o- I had three one year, and I was like, "This is absurd."
43:36
And then I went down to two, and even then I'm like, "Okay, so now I'm just basically playing the three games I like and then tossing a coin on these other two and both of these other entries."
43:44
And so I do one for content, you know? I'm just not very good... I'm, I like the things that I'm good at, don't necessarily like the things that I'm not good at, and I'm not good at this.
43:53
I mean, I'm two and three, three and two every single week, and that's the worst place to be is dead middle, right? I mean, that's absolutely terrible. So not very good at the contest.
44:01
Um, well, you're, you're not, you're not alone with that. No. That's, that's, that's honest. Um, I'm curious, does the documentary, as we move on, putting you on the spot here- Mm-hmm...
44:11
with this, but I, I'm just curious. Does it get into, as the, as the winners cross the finish line towards the end, I don't wanna give- Mm... away anything, obviously, the contest has already happened. Mm.
44:19
But there are these big s- right? It's more out there than it used to be. They've existed, but now it's, like, really out there that you have poker players, you have syndicates- Mm... that have tons of entries.
44:30
And some of those, not all of them, right? Mm-hmm. Some of them crap out even if they have 150 entries. Yeah. But a couple of 'em get across the finish line. Does that get, uh, mentioned at all in, in the documentary?
44:42
Does that get dealt with at all? Yeah. Well, you start to talk to the people certainly- Yeah... that are, that are involved and all the stuff like that.
44:47
And honestly, we get into the, the monetization of it, just of the, of the process too a little bit.
44:52
'Cause I mean, it's, like you said, it's, it's not like it's a secret or something like that, so you gotta, you gotta talk about it, you know?
44:57
And I, and, and, and honestly, the other thing is, and I'm sure you've, you guys talk about it here on the show a ton, is you get that deep and Derek is more than happy to open you up. Yes.
45:06
You wanna walk down there and you wanna, like, you know- Mm-hmm... hedge all of this and stuff like that, he's more than happy to do it, and so we get in, get into that too, you know?
45:12
Because there's, that's a real part of it once you get that deep in the contest, of like, "I'm not leaving here empty-handed," right? [laughs] Like, "I, I can't, I can't get to this point and leave here empty-handed."
45:21
But it's amazing, 'cause I know, I don't know about every year- Yeah... but at least we know of people, like at least two years ago, I remember, and you- Yeah...
45:27
you covered it in the documentary, where they're like, "Nope, I'm not hedging." Yep. I- "I'm just going." Shocking to me, right? Or, "I'm flying the airplane into the wall- Yeah... or above it," whichever happens.
45:36
When you see how silly these NFL games end up sometimes too- Oh my God... to think that you're, like, not walking away with at least six figures, right? You gotta walk away with at least six figures.
45:44
Derek Stevens, who of course is the, the, these contests are the brainchild of, he says they are ahead of pace on all of these this year. Talking millions.
45:52
By the way, I'm amazed that people track this from, like, Au- August 23rd- [laughs]... last year, we were... That's amazing.
45:57
But they are ahead of, but actual, not Derek, but the actual people covering survivors, um, but they're ahead of pace on all these, so looking forward to another great year of all the contests here at Circa.
46:07
We've done all we can do. Thank you, Matt. Prop Points is next.
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