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Aug 18, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 18, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 18, 2026 | Hour 1
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23:42
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Transcript
0:00
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0:33
So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:40
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. It is Gil Alexander flying solo just like back in the day.
0:52
Uh, Kelly's on assignment. Matt Brown will join us again tomorrow as he did so kindly yesterday. Uh, we are packed with guests today.
0:59
In fact, this happens to be the day that we do the old tried and true traditional, uh, traditional MLB betting derivative show that I do every quarter with Mark Borcherd. Mark's gonna join us here momentarily.
1:11
We go through the best money line teams in baseball, the best run line teams, best starting pitchers thus far through three quarters roughly of the Major League Baseball season. Then we get more granular.
1:21
We do first five inning stats. We do first inning stats for those who like betting those things. It's sort of just a look at what's happened, what is predictive moving forward in Major League Baseball.
1:31
Uh, Drew Dincic will join us, talk US Open, talk NFL, talk any tennis that he has today. Joe Sheehan on baseball a little later, and then a visit from the Grover Cleveland Producers networks in radio here in Las Vegas.
1:43
Jeff Parley with season-long thoughts on both the National Football League and college football. Looking forward to that a little later on the show.
1:51
So we are packed, uh, with guests all day long, which leaves me very little time to, uh, to talk solo here. So I wanna kind of make it as, uh, nerd ball as possible here.
2:01
I wouldn't do this during football season [chuckles], but it gives us a chance to squeeze in a little bit of, um, I don't know if it's betting 101, but it gives me one of these old school chances that I used to do on the podcast of just talking granular betting stuff.
2:13
We'll get to that momentarily. Uh, first, MLB August wins. Tigers win yesterday. Tigers win their first of a three-game set at Pittsburgh.
2:21
Said yesterday, for us to get back in this, for us to have a legiti- legitimate shot here, three-game set at Pittsburgh, three-game set at Kansas City before the schedule gets hard with the Dodgers and Tampa Bay at home.
2:32
Tigers gotta win at least five of these six against the Pirates and the Royals. Well, they got off to a good start yesterday.
2:37
Uh, p- uh, excuse me, the Padres, yes, at the top lost, so two wins behind the leaders, but it's a quartet of leaders, Rays, Phillies, Padres, and Cubs, all with 11 wins. Our Tigers, nine and six.
2:50
Now, remember, if this was a run differential contest, we'd be in first place, plus 36. Sadly, however, it is not a run differential contest. It is most wins. Tigers nine and six again. Just beat the patsies.
3:01
Do what you have to do here this week, and then we'll worry about the tougher games and see where we stack up, uh, at that point.
3:07
By the way, the, the Padres losing that game at the top of the standings, uh, yesterday, going into yesterday's games, lose to the Mets two to one.
3:16
Three Padres runners thrown out at home plate in the first two innings of that ballgame, uh, by Benge and by, uh, I can't remember now.
3:25
It was Ewing, I think, was the other one that threw out three Padres runners at home plate, two by Benge, one by Ewing in the second inning. Just unbelievable, and that holds on.
3:34
Mets win two to one, so helps us in our August standings. Uh, tennis today, only one play in Cincinnati, none on the ladies' side, just one on the men's side. Daniil Medvedev is the play.
3:47
I got Daniil Medvedev for subscribers last night, vsin.com/picks for all hosts, all guests, every sport, every pick. It's all there for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. I'm gonna see what this price is, uh, right now.
4:00
But last night for subscribers, got Daniil Medvedev minus 128 versus Brandon Nakashima.
4:05
Nakashima, if you recall, just got to his first 1,000 final last week in Montreal, so he is riding his sort of career-high wave, if you will, right now.
4:18
But I'm on Medvedev, the, uh, more tried and true player, the better hard court player career-wise. It's minus 133 right now. It's ab- it's a nickel worse. I wouldn't let it get much higher than that.
4:27
Don't go past minus 135, but I think Medvedev gets it done today. That's the only tennis play for the day.
4:33
The point that I wanted to make here, though, is, and this sort of happens because yesterday gave us entrée for it. We had three plays in tennis yesterday.
4:40
I'm gonna make a broader betting point from this, so not to get into spreadsheet radio, but here we are here. It gives us a, uh, an opportunity to do this. Yesterday, we had three plays. We ended up going one and one.
4:51
It ends up being, uh, uh, a wash for us. We got a win on Tirante in the morning, a loss on Towson later in the day as a big dog, and in between, we had Sorana Cirstea. We had a third play.
5:05
And we were gonna have a winning day. And as you know, this is ha- this happens all the time. We bet so many tennis matches, this is gonna come up.
5:11
But Sorana Cirstea, Sorana Cirstea, pardon me, was playing Anna Kalinskaya. We were on Cirstea as a short favorite. She's up five-love in the third set. Five-love in the third set, and what does Kalinskaya do?
5:23
She says, "Oh, this is my hip, my back. What a... Medic. Uh, let me see. Maybe I'll go to the locker room. Would you... Uh, you know what? I'm gonna quit."
5:30
So, in tennis betting, what happens here again is you are great, you are graded depending on what shop you are betting this at. Now, the shops that grade after one set, no problem. We cash anyway.
5:41
But there are, there are places where I bet where the full match has to finish, and you should always know this when betting tennis. It's specific to that sport.
5:51
So when the shops where I had to have the match complete, I don't get any of that money that I was simply four points away from winning. It just becomes a refund.
6:01
And so this is infuriating when you are on the cusp of winning. And now, so the reaction that most people have, and we talk about this in sports betting in general, is, "Oh, the coin flips."
6:10
Let's, we, let's talk what we talk about, football and baseball. "Oh, the coin flip games, they usually even out."
6:15
And I always make the point on this show, and I've made it with Fezzik, I've made it with Crack, but I've e- made it before those guys Um, or when those guys are not on the show from the inception of the show, is that, no, if you're good at a certain sport, if you really do have an edge, actually the coin flips don't usually even out.
6:29
You, you end up getting the worst of it. In tennis specifically, when it comes to these walkovers, as they're called, or withdrawals, walkovers is the, uh, sort of official title of these. Um, it's very specific, right?
6:42
'Cause the rules are in place from a betting s- uh, structural standpoint.
6:46
And I wanted to go down a rabbit hole because I was so infuriated about this outcome yesterday, again, not losing money, but not winning as-- nearly as much as we should have, that I went through my historical spreadsheets and sorted for all the withdrawals just to see, have I been on the right side of these or the wrong side of these?
7:05
Again, hang out. This is not just, "Hey, look at my spreadsheets. This is awesome." I'm gonna make a broader point here, which is, and I went back, just went back a few years. So let's go back to twenty twenty-four.
7:14
Twenty twenty-four, I went through all the withdrawals, and again, we're betting hundreds of matches. So you'll see, and we'll throw up a spreadsheet here. This is my twenty twenty-four spreadsheet.
7:22
Essentially, and I c- the score, I, I log the score of the match when the walk-off happens. This is super nerdy, granular stuff, but this is what I do with tennis, right?
7:33
I'm, I'm, I'm noting the player I'm betting on, I'm noting what the, what the betting line is, and what the score is when the withdrawal happens.
7:40
And you will see in twenty twenty-four, no big deal, I got the worst of it by, uh, a unit and change. A unit and change.
7:49
In other words, if you see the scores, and it's re- I know it's fine print there, but if you look at the scores in twenty twenty-four, I would've won an extra unit point two three had these all gone to completion based roughly on where the score was.
8:02
In other words, if it was kind of middling, I don't count them to this, but if I was on the cusp of winning or I was on the cusp of losing, being very objective about it, in the wash in twenty twenty-four, it cost me a unit point two three.
8:14
By the way, just to let you know how just absolutely maddening these things could be, just in twenty twenty-four alone, February fifth, Taro Daniel, I was up five-love in the third set. [scoffs] I didn't get that one.
8:26
Lucas Pouille versus Kokkinakis at Wimbledon on July fourth, up five-two in the third. Remember, six games to win the, to, to win the match. Uh, five-two in the third. Obviously, Wimbledon was a best of five.
8:38
Peyton Stearns at plus two forty-eight versus Azarenka in Toronto, August eighth. Again, two games away from winning it at a huge dog. Yifan Wang, a three-dollar dog against Sakkari at the US Open, already up a set.
8:50
So you get the idea. But in twenty twenty-four, bottom line, it cost me only a unit point two three. Now, twenty twenty-five, again, doing this very objectively, what was I on the cusp of winning?
8:59
What was I on the cusp of losing? You can't know for sure, but I'm throwing out all the ones that were, again, sort of toss-ups at the time.
9:07
I actually got the best of it in twenty twenty-five by a little over four units. Actually f- almost four and a half units. Four point four eight units I actually got the best of it.
9:15
I would've lost four point four eight units more. Which brings in, by the way, there's highlights there too as well, but that brings us to this year.
9:23
And this year has been an utter, just absolute kick in the you know what on this. So far, we're in August, keep in mind. There's still tennis to be played this year.
9:35
This year, it has already cost us as bettors, if you followed all my picks at vsi.com/picks, it's already cost us eight point nine four units in matches we were about to or on the cusp of winning.
9:48
Eight point nine, excuse me, yeah, eight point nine four units already this year, uh, including yesterday's Sorana Cîrstea five-love in the third set on the cusp of winning. You may recall others this year.
9:59
Maya Sherif, uh, was up six-four, four-love as a plus one fifty-seven dog back in July in a final, by the way, and Paula Badosa walks off the court.
10:07
Alex Yala as a plus four oh five dog in March versus Coco at Indian Wells was up six-two, two-love. Coco walks off the court.
10:17
Priscilla Han plus one thirty-six back at the, uh, Australian Open, also one game away from winning five-three in the third, and her opponent walks off the court. Anyway, there's a number of examples of this.
10:27
This year, we are getting crushed on this. So what is the, what is the point of all this? The point of all of this is one is the specific, one is the broader.
10:34
The specific is if you're a tennis bettor and you're good, you are more likely to be ahead, right, in more matches than you are not.
10:43
And because I'm a dog bettor primarily, an underdog bettor, they are going to be extremely painful because for whatever reason, it's more likely that a big favorite ends up walking off the court when they're getting trucked by someone they're, they're supposed to beat rather than the dog we're betting on doing so because that dog sort of psychologically is like, "Well, I'm gonna lose anyway, so why would I walk off here?"
11:06
If that makes any sense. So it's just the fact if you're good, you're good, and also just the nature of betting on underdogs a lot.
11:12
The broader betting point, and again, this, this is something we used to have opportunity to do during the podcast when we were just podcasting at Betting Dork and Beating the Book, not so much necessarily these days on the show, certainly not during football season, is if you are a bettor, whatever the sport, whether it's tennis, whether it's golf, whether it's basketball, whether it's baseball, whether it's football, you should be logging all of your plays as I just displayed here.
11:34
This is just the sorting of withdrawals, right? This is from a much broader spreadsheet of all the plays, whether favorite or underdog.
11:41
When I used to bet baseball every day, I would sort it based on the price, uh, even to minus one ten, minus one ten to minus one twenty, and so on and so forth.
11:49
Dog, same direction, so that you could sort based on how am I doing in subsets? Overall, I see what I'm doing, but it teaches you about your performance. What am I doing well? What am I not doing well?
12:02
And to be able to figure out, oh, I'm really good at big dogs. Oh, I really suck at big dogs. I shouldn't play these.
12:08
Those are the kinds of things you can glean by being this pedantic and this deliberate about how you log all of your sports bets. On a numbers game. You're here because you want an edge.
12:19
That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you.
12:28
VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use. No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets.
12:35
Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:53
Week zero, college football's almost here with the NFL regular season right behind it. Now is the time to get your edge with VSiN Pro. Join VSiN Pro today.
13:01
Get instant access to both our college football and NFL betting guides packed with team previews, power ratings, proven betting systems, and best bets from VSiN's top analysts. And that's just the start.
13:10
You also get daily best bets from VSiN-hosted guests, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop tools and matchup analysis, plus "24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app.
13:19
Start today for just $9.99 or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas here. Solo.
13:35
Kelly on assignment somewhere in Nashville, Tennessee, we think. We think. Though we heard from him yesterday, so we know he's alive. We know he's doing well. We get tweets beating the book.
13:45
Always appreciate the feedback, uh, from everybody. This is from... Well, it's Greg Peterson chiming in on the, on the feed. What's this about? Oh, somebody's, uh, asking him if he wears, uh, shorts on the air.
13:55
He says, "You'll recall last time I got asked that was on, uh, with Gil, and I showed I actually wear dress pants even though you cannot see them on air." Greg Peterson with a colored background, right?
14:04
Always puts up blue or red or whatever. Always see him in a coat and tie whenever he makes his appearances, even from home. Always full, fully clad, head to toe, Greg Peterson on the show.
14:14
Uh, this is from, let's see, Robert, SquareBob2022. "Your level of surprise that it's Sharif..." Oh, this is from yesterday. We were talking about, uh, not knowing lyrics to songs.
14:25
Uh, The Clash 1982 hit, "Rock the Casbah," I was surprised that it was Sharif don't like it.
14:30
He says, "Your level of surprise that it's Sharif that don't like it was on the same level as my surprise when I found out that the numbers don't lie."
14:37
Oh, that's in our intro in the show, uh, when the person says the numbers don't lie, wasn't Jeff Parles. I would have bet billions it was Jeff. See what he did there? It's from the show Billions, not, uh, Jeff Parlet.
14:47
He'll join us later. Uh, you see ads. He goes, "Love the show. Uh, Matt's cool. Miss Kelly's bent point of view, though." Yeah, Kelly, Kelly [chuckles] will be back, uh, on Monday. Don't worry about that.
14:58
Robert Schwartz letting us know that the latest Gallup research shows fewer US adults say they gamble. Hmm.
15:06
"Fascinating to see how much has changed from 2016 pre-PASPA, big overturn to today with surge of prediction markets." Yeah, Robert, I don't know.
15:15
I, I'd have to read that article, but that can't be from the whole population. Maybe adults in some way, but boy, oh, boy, it's a, uh, it's a...
15:24
I don't wanna use the word scourge because Crack and I talk about this sometimes 'cause we, we do a gambling show, obviously, but we worry about how it's proliferated through young people here.
15:35
And even sort of just being transparent and honest about ourselves, had we had access to gambling, sports betting that easily when we were 16, 17 years old, it wouldn't have gone well for us either, most likely.
15:49
So that's a whole nother subject. Uh, John Balducci, "Let's play what's more nerdy. In the red corner, your tennis spreadsheets. In the blue corner, me actually remembering all these matches."
16:00
I was hoping when I was going through those that that was gonna be the reaction by many people, that you're gonna be like, "Oh, I remember.
16:04
I was on that Sharif match," the Maya Sharif one against Paula Badosa in the final. "Oh, I remember that Iala match where we had a $4 dog, a plus $4 dog, plus 405, and her opponent walks off the court."
16:16
These are, these are brutal. That's the other thing too. If you bet enough, you do to some extent, right?
16:23
You do become numb to these outcomes, and you have to realize, right, that over time, these are probably, if you're good, these are probably gonna go against you for the reasons I stated more than not, and it's just the cost of doing business.
16:37
And Chrissy Andrews in his latest book, uh, Then One Year, actually alludes to this, not on tennis withdrawals, but just on outcomes, you know, bad beats or just coin flip games that go against you.
16:47
Your ability to stomach those is gonna go a long way to your longevity as a sports bettor.
16:52
Because if you're not able to stomach those, uh, you're probably in the wrong business 'cause it's going to happen, and it's going to happen, uh, at some times relentlessly.
17:01
LFC Title Records, "I heard you mention Maya Sharif in the first segment. Is she the person discussed in Rock, in Rock the Casbah?" [chuckles] See how those two things, uh, came together there.
17:10
Tom K, "I listened closely to the tennis withdrawal info. Uh, because of your prowess/edge, have you considered taking a lesser price at books that pay out after one set? What would the line be?
17:19
Is it worth running the numbers?" Yeah, so yeah. So again, as I said, I'm betting at multiple outs. So some are going to be...
17:27
And, and we, when I-- By the way, when I give my numbers here on the show, I've always stated here, withdrawals don't count on this show. I'm not gonna change up in the middle of years of doing this.
17:36
The old school way is what we still say when we talk about, "Hey, yesterday we were actually one and one." Right?
17:41
I'm not gonna come on the show and say we were two and one 'cause I just adhere to our old school grading system of that.
17:46
But I'm actually betting at shops that are both one gra- uh, one set grades and, uh, at full match grades.
17:54
And so yes, we again made some money at the one set grades 'cause those, uh, those will acknowledge that Cirstea was the one who advances in the tournament. So yeah, and it's tough to...
18:06
It, it's always easy to say after the fact, and I'm, and I'm not saying anything wrong with what you're saying, LFC Title, because I...
18:11
There's a couple things in tennis betting specifically that people like to do after the fact, which is one is, "Oh, well, what if you, you should be betting at one gr- you know, one set shops."
18:18
Well, yeah, okay, but there's matches then that, um- You know, it's one of those things where I'm spread all out, so I cover all bases. I don't think it's a question of either/or.
18:31
And for me, also the other one in tennis that brings-- that they bring up a lot is when I'm betting the big dogs, oftentimes they come close to winning but don't, and then people are, "Oh, well, you should bet on the spread rather than the big money line."
18:42
Yeah, but they, they c- you know, sort of conveniently forget all the times we're hitting these massive numbers over and over and over again.
18:49
And in the wash, for me as a bettor, it's much better to go, uh, with the longer dogs. Uh, Tom K., "I listened closely to the tennis withdrawal information." Oh, no, that was the one that I just read. I'm sorry.
18:58
Seth Holycross, "Really appreciated the point about breaking down your betting logs by odds ranges.
19:03
I've gotten much more detail with my own logs the past couple years, and it's amazing what you can start uncovering as bettors we're looking for every edge we can find. That is one."
19:13
Um, yeah, that's, that's, I mean, uh, that's the main point of that whole segment. It wasn't, "Hey, look at my glorious, magnificent spreadsheets."
19:20
It was, it's basically, I hope it inspires at least a few people out there to, if you're doing this right, this is just my opinion. You know, some people are just doing this for entertainment.
19:30
They're just gonna bet whatever. They're gonna forget about their bets, nothing.
19:32
But if you're doing this seriously, specifically if you're doing it seriously in a sport, try to be as detailed as possible in your spreadsheets. It just has to be a simple Excel spreadsheet.
19:41
Doesn't have to be anything more fancy than that, as you can see. And just be able to sort. You will learn things, because for me, and Dr. Bob used to say this all the time too, I, I learned at the lap of the great Dr.
19:51
Bob, um, what you learn is that, you know, it's sort of like analytics see all. You see, your human eye sees one game better, but analytics see all games better. Same thing with all of your bets made over time.
20:05
You will remember only what you, what your brain, you know, will, will sort of keep in it for whatever reason your brain will keep in. "Oh, a bad beat. Oh, I'm getting the worst of it here."
20:15
There's actually, no, in twenty twenty-five, I got the better of it by withdrawals, right? So it's good to see over time, but then you see, oh, here comes the avalanche.
20:23
And just n- and, and with baseball again, I used to really figure out, I can't remember, that I was, I was really not good at minus one twenty to minus one thirty favorites, I seem to recall.
20:35
Like small favorites in baseball. I used to get the worst of it for whatever. So it was either I had to, I was much better at the bigger favorites, much better at dogs in those shorter line games.
20:45
You learn a lot about your, your betting, uh, activity.
20:49
Uh, Kelly, uh, this is, uh, Shrek McPhee, "What makes the Cirstea one even worse is the fact that everyone waited through five additional hours over three different rain delays, and she still came back for nothing."
20:57
Yes, I forgot to mention that. Rain delays prolonged our, uh, disappointment. Let's get into the baseball thing. Borchardt is gonna join us next segment, but I just wanna start at the top here.
21:07
And w- this is the more readily available stuff. We'll get into the more proprietary stuff with Mark Borchardt. We'll get his baseball picks here coming up.
21:14
But in terms of just blindly betting, this is a bizarro exercise.
21:19
If you bet every one of these baseball teams this year through, through their s- three quarters of the season, whatever their number is right now, a hundred and twenty-plus games, if you bet them to win a unit as a favorite, risking a unit as a dog up to this point in the season, the most profitable team in baseball, and again, it's a bizarro exercise.
21:35
I don't think anybody in the world has done this. But if you did, the Chicago White Sox would be the most profitable team in all of baseball. This is courtesy of covers.com.
21:43
The White Sox would have netted you over thirteen units on the season if you bet them blindly every game this season.
21:49
That makes sense because they've been a dog just as much as they've been a favorite, or at least they've been a dog a substantial amount of times, and they have a good record, obviously, right?
21:57
Sixty-five and fifty-nine atop the AL Central. Second most profitable team, sort of a similar profile to the White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays. Not necessarily thought of as being this glorious team.
22:08
The White Sox actually thought of going to be a bad team before the season. But the Rays not necessarily thought of leading the AL East. Well, they're just having a great year, right? Seventy-five and forty-nine.
22:18
You'd be up twelve point seven five units if you bet the Rays blindly, favorite and dog, every single game this year. Milwaukee would be third, St.
22:25
Louis and Chicago, three NL Central teams rounding out the top five in terms of profitability. Now, the question that we're asking ourselves is, "Oh, this is a great story. Is this predictive moving forward?"
22:34
I would argue for all of those teams, it might very well be. What are the worst? No surprise here. The Oakland Athletics would have hemorrhaged you over twenty-two units.
22:43
What's noteworthy this year is you have a log jam at the bottom of this.
22:47
Athletics would have cost you over twenty-two units, betting them blindly every game, and I would suggest if you're doing that, you're probably doing this wrong.
22:53
Seattle, second worst, twenty-one units to the red if you bet them every game this year on the money line. Royals, twenty units in the red. Mets, over nineteen units in the red.
23:04
And the Giants, almost eighteen units in the red. Angels right there in that group as well. So those six teams are all bunched up as the worst betting propositions in all of baseball.
23:14
And I hate to say it, but I think all of those predictive, uh, in a predictive fashion will continue directionally. By the way, the seventh worst team is the Tigers, and then the eighth worst is the Phillies.
23:26
I would argue the opposite with those two. Those aren't predictive. That's just what's kind of happened thus far this year. We'll get into run line. We'll get into first five. We'll get into umpires.
23:35
We'll get into starting pitchers. We'll get into first innings. We'll do it all with Mark Borchardt next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
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