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Aug 18, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 18, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 18, 2026 | Hour 2
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Transcript
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0:53
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:02
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
1:11
Uh, still to come on the show, Drew Dinsick will join us, talk, uh, football, tennis, anything that's on his mind. Uh, get Drew for three, I think, today, if I'm not mistaken. Uh, Jeff Parles will join us later.
1:21
He's got season-long NFL and college football thoughts. And Joe Sheehan on Major League Baseball is gonna join us here, uh, before the show is over.
1:30
Um, thanks to Mark Borchardt, by the way, for, uh, doing the, uh, Q3 derivatives with us. Always a fun exercise. We got tweets meeting the book. GV, New Jersey, New York, "Question for Borchardt."
1:38
Oh, sorry, I missed him. No. Says, "I know he's mentioned he's high on Philly before. I watch that team every night. PythAG has them six wins luckier than what their record should be.
1:47
The bullpen outside of Duran is eclectic. Uh, is there something I'm missing from the advanced stats that he sees?"
1:54
Meaning you think, meaning you think they're, that you don't buy the fact they're gonna regress, I think is what you're saying. I'll pass that on to Borchardt, but yeah.
2:01
PythAG, keep in mind, is just a reflection of what has already happened, right? Runs produced, runs, uh, runs allowed. It is in no way a reflectio- i- it is no way predictive moving forward, PythAG.
2:14
It's just a, it's just a commentary on what's happened, as is sequencing, by the way. It's just a question of that. Um, but yeah. Well, I'll pass that on to Borchardt. He'll give you a more, uh, thorough answer.
2:23
Auburnist, "Thinking about the tennis rules, would not scoring when someone withdraws encourage match fixing?" I'm not sure what not scoring means there. "Also, what is the stated reason for not scoring?"
2:37
Uh, we're just talking about, what I was talking about earlier was just betting results and grading. Not sure. Uh, I'll have to...
2:42
I need clarification 'cause you're saying, "Is it like baseball run line rules where it was started because a bookie didn't wanna pay?" Um, by the way, match fixing is always something that is levied against this player.
2:54
I don't know about, I don't know about always, but oft- oftentimes levied against players who make a very, uh, sort of late withdrawal from matches.
3:03
But there's all kinds of ways to fix tennis matches, not just that way, right? Tanking sets, particular games. It's a whole thing. Eric Bigiar, buddy from William Hill Caesars, "Love the baseball betting show.
3:13
Thank you both. Uh, on regression candidates for pitchers like E-Rod, they don't have sexy numbers or lights out stuff, but they know how to pitch. John Tudor, Jamie Moyer come to mind.
3:21
Does that give you pause to fading them, or you just trust the numbers?"
3:24
I actually passed this on to Borchardt before left air, before he left air, Eric, and he goes, "Did you trust Jamie Moyer when he came on the mound?"
3:30
The actual answer from Borchardt is he always trusts the numbers, which is exactly what I would expect him to say. Jesse Welch, the over nine and a half on Shariff's on today's show cashed easy.
3:39
Easy winner ri- right away in the first hour. And, uh, Freedom, Kyle Manship5, "I heard you talk about Shariff the tennis player earlier, and now once again I'm singing Shariff don't like it and can't stop."
3:49
A little bit of Shariff yesterday, a little bit of Shariff today. Uh, I wonder if Drew knew that th- th- those, those were the lyrics to, uh, The Clash's "Rock the Casbah."
3:56
Drew Dinsick joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line. Drew, I wanna, I wanna wow you with a couple things right here. Wanna wow you.
4:03
Drew Dinsick, by the way, the co-host of The Deep Dive podcast, which he does with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher. You can follow him on Twitter @whale_capper.
4:13
Are you familiar with the 1982, uh, smash by The Clash called "Rock the Casbah"? Are you familiar with that song? I'm very, very, very familiar with it, yes. Okay.
4:22
In that song, who, Drew, quote, "don't like it" in the chorus? I don't know. [laughs] I can't come up with the lyrics off the top of my head. Who don't like it? I, I was, I was shocked that it was Shariff.
4:34
All these years, 44 years, I thought it was Charlene don't like it. I am an idiot. This we, we talked about yesterday on the show. [singing] Yeah.
4:43
I, th- there are a bunch of, uh, that, that era's songs that ha- all have that same kind of style that I was, uh- [laughs] I'm sure when I listened to them, I w- like, first l- like, like that was, like, on, you know, y- you...
4:56
Oh, you're a DC guy. Yes, sir. I grew up in DC. Mm-hmm. Uh, riding around with my dad in his, um, Toyota Celica. Yes. 1981 Toyota Celica. Uh, we, uh, we would rock DC101. DC101 with the Grease Man.
5:09
Uh, a- with the Grease Man, yeah, that's right. And, uh, yeah, they played that style of music all the time, and I know I was singing along completely made-up words that were not close to the lyrics. [laughs] Back...
5:20
Kids don't appreciate it, Gil. You couldn't pull up, like- No... AZLyrics.com or whatever back in the day and know exactly what they were saying. You just had to guess. Yes.
5:28
And, uh, the, uh, the Brit- the British Invasion, uh, the Brit- Brit pop, Brit, uh, um- Uh, in general, uh, I'm sure I was just making up whatever. So yeah, Charlene [laughs] instead of Sharif. Yeah. Yeah.
5:40
And then Maya Sharif came up. It was a whole thing. Drew, we should just go through DC radio stations in the mid-'80s- [laughs]... when we, uh, for the rest of the hour. So this is the, uh, this is the other thing.
5:47
Well, the one that really, the one that really shaped me as a human was, uh, WHFS. Oh. Uh, that might have been after your time. No, no, I remember WHFS. Uh, they, they like- Yeah...
5:56
they swept in, uh, and really kind of delivered, um, some of the best alt rock in the '90s that, uh, you know, was all paradigm-shaping for me as a youth. And, uh, went to a couple HF festivals, uh, at, uh, RFK.
6:10
Uh, and, um, first concert I ever went to was an HF festival at RFK. No Doubt played, uh, j- br- uh, just off of their, um, you know, their release of Orange County. Sure. Yeah. Um, the big brass band, uh, you know...
6:24
Th- and they were like the, the eighth headliner. Like they were way down, you know, middle of the day.
6:28
[laughs] They threw No Doubt out there in the sun, uh, with the brass band, and they, they, they, uh, they tore the roof down. Um, Garbage played. The Foo Fighters were there.
6:37
Foo Fighters, obviously, Dave Grohl was a local hero. So they were the, they were the most well-embraced of any of the bands that played.
6:43
And, uh, Foo Fighters, I would still say is probably my favorite band based on- Wow... that experience alone. They were, they were incredible.
6:50
Uh, that was right before they released Color and the Shape, and uh, uh, they were amazing. Drew did see everybody. I'm forgetting like 10 other ones. Yeah.
6:56
But, uh, yeah, Bush played, uh, Presidents of the United States, Goldfinger, uh, you know, the, uh, Gin Blossoms. We could go on and on, but anyway. Oh, pour out a 40 for RFK. It makes me weep.
7:07
[laughs] I saw the Jacksons Victory Tour there and then, and so many years ago in RFK. Hell yeah. Yeah. Um, so this, and then this, I wanna just segue into.
7:16
By the way, we have a report from, uh, Ian Rapoport, this on the Breece Hall injury.
7:20
Aaron Glenn telling reporters that Breece Hall will be out two to three weeks, but will be ready for week one, so good news for the, uh, New York Jetropolitans. It could have been worse, as they say.
7:30
Uh, Drew, I wanted to show you this from earlier. We'll segue into tennis first, and we'll get to football.
7:34
But I wanted to, [laughs] I wanted to show you this that I was, uh, putting out earlier 'cause I had a segment to go through some like really nerdy tennis stuff, and I'm curious if you do this. Mm-hmm.
7:42
This is, this is me separating, 'cause I, I was on Sorana Cîrstea yesterday. Sure. Colin Sydor walks off the court at f- uh, d- you know, 5-love in the third set. So I don't- [laughs] At some books I don't...
7:52
Yeah, dude, it's an epidemic. By the way, I didn't make this point. If I go back to like 2023 with my spreadsheets on these- Yeah... so I've sorted out all the matches where a withdrawal took place.
8:03
[laughs] And you'll see the score, right? I have the score at the time of the withdrawal. This just happens to be the 2026 thus far. So this is eight units.
8:13
Now, now I'm, I'm, again, I'm making a subjective, "I was about to win this. I was about to lose this," right? [laughs] We get close- Yeah... 'cause then some of the ones in the middle I don't count, right?
8:23
Like I put them up as zero. But I was saying last year I actually got the best of it by, uh, several units in terms of withdrawals. The year before that, I got the worst of it by just over a unit and a half.
8:33
This year I am, I have gotten the worst- 20... of it by almost nine y- by, by over eight units. Oh. In other words, have gone against me. And- Jeez... but, but one of the things that are...
8:44
But the, this just jogged my memory. If I go back to 2023 and I'm still betting hundreds of matches, there were only four withdrawals, right? So this has become the...
8:54
Clearly by my betting numbers, the mathematical chances of it somehow leaping from four of these matches to now, you know, 20, 25 in a year, this has become an epidemic. Yeah. Can anything be done about this? Anything.
9:06
[laughs] Uh, I mean, I think it's... I wanna say this is either somehow variance or something about your process must be making this... You must be identifying players.
9:18
You know, you're, you must be identifying favorites who are somehow vulnerable to just giving up and- Well, I'm betting the-... withdrawing.
9:26
Uh- I'm betting the dog and the, and the favorite is walking off the court Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Yeah. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Yeah.
9:30
Like you, you must have, there must be something about your process where you're pul- you're, you're incorporating more of this.
9:36
Um, a couple of those look like, uh, you, you question whether you quit betting, [laughs] like the AL- Oh, dude... of four plus 405. Oh. Oh my God. I, I wanted to kill myself, yes.
9:47
[laughs] There's a couple of those on that list. Um, but, uh, yeah, the um, uh, the... It- I, I had a funny interaction with Andy. Uh, um, you... I don't know if you knew this about Andy, but, uh, probably
10:01
six years ago, he was bored in the off-season and was started making, uh, college hoops numbers for mid-majors only, and, um, he would only bet dogs off of his numbers for college basketball.
10:15
I never really kind of interrogated what exactly his process was, but there were just a couple of s- like, kind of uncaptured statistics that were really helping dogs in the mid-majors, and he would just bet those dogs.
10:27
And the pr- the proportion of, uh, dogs, he took the points every time. The proportion of dogs that went to overtime and then lost and didn't cover- Oh... was just- Brutal... impossibly large.
10:42
And it was like, "How could... How are you picking teams that are keeping it that close throughout regulation and then can't cover in overtime?" It was, it was ridiculous. He had some where it was like plus 10.
10:53
He had 10 points in his pocket, and then they would lose overtime 11-nothing. That is- And it was like h- like it- [laughs] That's the numeric...
10:59
That's the, that's the quantifiable numerical corroboration of Matt Youmans' comment, which he always makes, which is, "Overtime, where dogs go to die." Dogs go to die. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely.
11:11
A- and it was, it was, it was, uh, like you were saying, where you actually run the numbers on it and it was like, this is statistically impossible that you could have had this many overtime losers on teams that...
11:22
'Cause like the regulat- [laughs] the regulation is telling you that, yes, there was value on the dog. Yes. You made a good bet. And yet you still ended up losing. Yeah. You- You made a good bet.
11:31
[laughs] Yeah, I have to say. You made a great bet in some cases, and it still- Yeah... doesn't matter. And then there's the- Yeah...
11:36
and then there's the superstition that, that follows from that, which is, 'cause I've said this, uh, specifically with college basketball I remember being on l- w- to use your example, on Wisconsin.
11:45
This is, like, five, six years ago. Can't remember who they were playing. They were, like, an eight-and-a-half point favorite. I was on the favorite. I was on the other side of that, right? I had no business winning it.
11:54
It goes to overtime, I win. I always feel like- [laughs] I'm curious w- I always feel like when I win something I'm not supposed to win, what follows is an unbelievable run of greatness. And the opposite is true too.
12:06
Oh, sure. [laughs] When I lose something I'm not supposed to lose, oh my God, here comes hell. Yeah. No, absolutely. Yeah. That, that, that, the, the, the...
12:15
You gamble long enough and you identify those patterns, and, uh, um, yeah, there's, uh, yeah, it's y- I, I guess I just can't win.
12:24
[laughs] Like, you made a, you made a great bet, you got incredible closing line value, the- Well, boys and girls- Game state was in your favor the whole time, and then right out the window... no one said this was easy.
12:34
I don't remember that ever being said on this show. Drew's tennis thoughts- [laughs]... if he has any plays today, his US Open thoughts, his NFL thoughts, that's next- Yes...
12:41
on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:51
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13:00
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13:08
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:23
College football season is almost here, and betting it blind is a losing strategy. Loser. Get the VSiN College Football Guide free with VSiN Pro.
13:33
It has previews of all 138 FBS teams, our preseason top 50 power ratings, proven betting systems, and best bets from VSiN's sharpest minds. That's not all.
13:41
VSiN Pro also gets you the NFL Betting Guide, the Fantasy Life Fantasy Football Guide, daily best bets, real-time betting splits, AI-powered prop projections, and 24/7 video on the VSiN WATCH app.
13:49
Try today for just 9.99 or lock in a full year and save 50% with the VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander.
14:01
We're getting a little, uh, a little nerdy, a little granular here today with the, uh, with the betting stuff. Um, hope everybody, uh, enjoys it. Uh, for me, this is how the podcast used to be, right?
14:11
When I wasn't a hamster on a wheel doing shows every single day, I got to, like, really talk betting and nothing else but betting. Um, but I'm curious, uh, I'm curious about this question.
14:22
This is a great question from the Auburnist, and I'll... Drew Dinsick is kind enough to, uh, hang out with us this hour, and I'll actually bring you in for this, Drew. This is from the Auburnist.
14:29
He says, um, he's clarifying what he was saying earlier. He says, "Sorry, I was talking about the books not grading the bet." He was using the word scoring, and it sounded funny.
14:37
He goes, uh, "Wouldn't the books want a decision on these? Is it good for them scoring it a push instead of scoring it for whoever is ahead when the withdrawal happens?"
14:46
This is a great question, and I, I'll bring you in for this, because what he's, again, what he's asking is, so there's shops that only require one set to be finished, and then they pay you out however advances.
14:55
But of the shops, the old school shops that require the entire match to be graded, he's asking... And I guess what he's asking, I'll, I'll rephrase it by saying what's the, what's the reasoning for them- Yeah...
15:07
having that rule and sticking with that rule? Yeah, this is kind of a new thing that that's come about. Well, back in the day when I started betting tennis, it was...
15:16
almost every book was one set must be finished, and then we'll grade the money line.
15:22
Um, and my guess is that the kind of tendency to move to void everything unless the match is completed is because they had some customer... It's just a, kind of a customer experience decision, right?
15:36
Like, to, to your point, to the point of the, the, um, the, the, um, the question, um, it's in the advantage of the house to grade any market. To get to, to, to have a, f- of an outcome [laughs] is their advantage.
15:51
They don't want to be voiding bets. That's not good for the house.
15:54
Um, but the fact that they are voiding those, and my guess is that it's because they are voiding the handicap, they are voiding the s- set correct scores, they are voiding the totals.
16:06
And so grading the mon- you know, grading the outcome, the money line outcome, and voiding everything else, I think they probably were just kind of mas- making some customers unhappy, uh, and so they elected to just void everything, uh, is my guess.
16:20
Um- That's as good of an answer as, as any, I would think. I think you're probably right. Yeah. 'Cause the- Yeah. And... [clears throat] I'll give you an example. By the way- But, but for those wondering- Yeah...
16:29
which are the shops that require full grading, Bookmaker offshore stalwart requires full match to be played. Um, well, who's the shop here that also... I... MGM is one set, I believe. Caesars is a full grade- Yeah...
16:47
if I'm not mistaken. Uh, one of those is a full grade. I think it's Caesars that requires the full match. I could be wrong about that. Um, but up until recently they were that way, as I recall. Yeah.
16:55
So anyway, there, there's- And I... Yeah... there's places that are still full. My guess is it, it's a customer service thing. Yeah. Uh- I think you're right... the, uh, [clears throat]
17:04
the, the, uh, the online help agents got tired of answering angry ques- That's exactly-... angry questions about- Yeah... "Why did you, why did you void my over that was already home?"
17:12
Spe- "Uh, but you graded my money line a loser." [laughs] Yes, that's kind of- That'll get old... I think that's probably w- Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That'll get old real quick.
17:19
Do you have any tennis in Cincinnati today for us? I do. I like, um, I like Medvedev a lot- Me too... against Nakashima. That's my boy. That's a good matchup for him. Yeah. Uh, Medvedev, I laid the game and a half.
17:31
I think he covers the s- the handicap there. I like minus 136 too. My fair price there is minus 158. Um- Yeah. Yeah... and nothing against Nakashima.
17:39
He played great in, uh, Montreal, but, uh, these conditions and the style, style, uh, matchup style in my opinion- Solid favorite to, to Medvedev there. Yeah. Um, lot-- mostly chalk popped on my, on my card today.
17:53
Uh, I have a decent edge on Musetti over Michael Mmoh. Um, I think that, uh, the best way in... I got in, I got in at minus 179. It's minus 197 now.
18:05
I think I would lay the two and a half games over laying minus 197, so, um, I would still look for Musetti to come through two-zero against Michael Mmoh. Um, again, nothing against Mmoh, gr- a solid player.
18:17
Uh, I like Tiafoe versus Learner Tien. Uh, that is still available at plus money at a couple spots.
18:23
And then tomorrow, um, I'm going against my guy, Arthur, Arthur Fils, and I'm gonna back a player that I absolutely hate in Alex de Minaur. But, uh- [laughs]... de Minaur being plus 152 right now- Wow... is kinda crazy.
18:35
Yeah. That should be way closer to 50/50, and I think a couple of, you know, tweak a couple of things in your model, I could convince myself de Minaur should be a small favorite there, and he's at plus 152.
18:46
So, um, gonna go with, uh, de Minaur tomorrow and look for, look for some daylight against Fils. I'm glad to hear you're on Medvedev. That is my only te- my only tennis play in Cincinnati. Oh, you got a good price.
18:58
Is Medvedev. This is overnight for Vs and subscribers, uh, last night, minus 128 versus Brandon Nakashima. I saw minus 133 when I first started the show this morning. Um, but this reminds me of- Yes. Yeah...
19:09
yeah, this reminds me of a couple, of, of a match a couple days ago when Felix Auger-Aliassime was taking on Stefanos Tsitsipas. Now, this, some of that- Mm... had to do with Felix hadn't played in a long time.
19:20
Hadn't played since Wimbledon, I don't think. But it's sorta like, uh, Auger-Aliassime was this very small favorite, just like Medvedev here is against Nakashima.
19:28
Again, nothing against Nakashima, who, who just got to his first 1,000 final at Toronto.
19:33
Nothing against Tsitsipas, who's having a bit of a career resurgence, but it's like, have we gotten to the point where we're so recency bias that we really think- Yeah...
19:41
Medvedev shouldn't be a bigger favorite against Nakashima today, and Felix shouldn't have been a bigger favorite against Tsitsipas the other day. Yeah. So reminds me of that. The F- the Felix, yeah, it's a good call.
19:49
The Felix one was interesting because he, I think because he specifically, because he skipped Canada, I think people were- Yes... convinced there was something wrong. That's right. That's right.
19:59
Um- His home country, Felix, I don't know... because it was a con- it, it was a little bit of a, "Well, why, why would you, uh, why would you be w- You could've won Canada. You would've been the top seed, right?"
20:07
I mean, or you know, second seed, I guess, after Zverev, but, uh, Zverev clearly wasn't in, you know, playing for anything there. So- Yeah...
20:13
uh, yeah, he, he s- he presumably passed up the chance at the, uh, at the Coupe Rogers or Rogers Cup. W- where w- Men were in Montreal, so it would've been the Coupe Rogers. Right, and it was, and it was Montreal.
20:22
He's a Quebec guy, I believe, right? Yeah, exactly. Yeah. He's, yeah, he's a French Canadian. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, he, him passing up on that, I think people just assumed.
20:29
Um, but I tell you what, F- Fel- both Felix and Medvedev I think are interesting right now as you look at the board for, uh, the US Open broadly. I would really love to see both guys pick up a little bit of steam here.
20:40
Um, neither one is especially, um, you know, kind of, uh, ground down by the fatigue of the season to this point.
20:47
Uh, if they can put some form together going into US Open, they'll both be pretty, pretty interesting if they can land in, uh, you know, quarters that are not Sinner quarters.
20:56
Um, obviously we still haven't gotten confirmation that Sinner's gonna play the US Open. We haven't gotten confirmation on Alcaraz either. I expect both men will play. Feels like it. Um, but, uh- Yeah.
21:06
Feels like they'll play... yeah. Feels like it. Um, but yeah, I, I mean, uh, the guys in, like, the Zverev, Shelton, Djokovic, Hodar, Fritz tier I think are all a little short right now in terms of their price.
21:16
Um, and, and, uh, Felix and, and Medvedev at 35 to one are both players to watch.
21:22
Uh, that the, in particular, Medvedev, like, his, you know, his skill set is, uh, I think w- perfectly tuned for a hardcore speed like Cincinnati. Should also be able to carry that into, uh, Flushing Meadows.
21:36
This, it's, uh, it's in general, um, this is his time of the calendar where he really tends to pop a little bit because he's not as, um, ground down by the clay and grass 'cause he just doesn't make deep runs in those tournaments.
21:49
And so, uh, yeah, it, he's getting towards the end of where we're gonna consider him a, a realistic contender at any tournament.
21:55
But I, I really hope Medvedev puts a little bit of, uh, uh, form together here going into the USO. Medvedev's one slam title here at the US Open. Um, Jannik Sinner- Right... minus 140, Carlitos plus 260.
22:08
You, you expect one of them to win. Didn't he win the Australian Open, Gil? I remember him up two-zero- [laughs] No... and he, he was up a break in the third. No. I'm pretty sure he got that- No...
22:17
across the finish line, right? Checking. Checking. No. Oh, no. No, didn't happen. He lost to Nadal. Yeah. Oh, man. Yeah. That one stinks. Sinner's, Sinner's winning this, though, you think, Sinner? I think so, yeah.
22:28
Yeah. I have, I actually got some close to 50 fi- 50 percent-ish at, uh, some of the PMs. Um, and, uh- Nice. Nice... my, my number's close to 62.
22:39
Um, Alcaraz, actually the real fun one, I got a bunch of Alcaraz will play, [laughs] which I'm excited about. Yeah. I really, I, that was, that was in, like, the 40s at one point.
22:51
After he pulled out of Cincinnati, I think, um, that dipped down into the 40s. I got filled a bunch of Alcaraz will play, so I, I just wanna see him show up. Just will he play or will he w- will he not play.
23:00
Oh, he's playing. Will he show up, basically. Yeah, he's, yeah, he's playing. Yeah, is he showing up? Yeah. That video- Did you see his kit? That video J-Rod sent us? Yeah, he's playing. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
23:08
Did you see his kit? No. Good? He's got, like, a New York Knicks kit. Oh, smart. It's like n- the sleeve, this, it's like the sleeveless, uh, you know, how he likes the, the sleeveless, uh, tops.
23:18
It's, uh, it, it's full on New York Knicks inspired. He's, he's playing. Last thing, last thing, t- last thing on tennis- [laughs]... 'cause we'll get to football after the break. Ladies- Yeah...
23:26
say it with me, Drew, who's your girl? [laughs] Iga's live. Thank you. Yeah. She's live. Is that what you were hoping for? That's what I was hoping for. Yeah.
23:34
Um, no, the, real quick on the women's, um, ah, man, is this awesome that we have, uh, we have gone through the cycle and it feels like there's, like, like, because Andreeva won the French and, and, uh, Noskova won, uh, Wimbledon, there's, like, a lot of, um, s- Mission has not been accomplished.
23:52
We have not gotten the, what we wanted out of this season from Iga, from Sabalenka, from Gauff, Osaka, uh, Pegula. Like, a, a bunch of really, really good women who, uh- Yeah...
24:03
I think are coming into this tournament with like a, a, a prerogative, and that's gonna make it fun. Can't wait. Drew, Zach, and I will do the US Open pod coming up. More with Drew on football next.
24:13
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24:23
Don't forget about the Sharp Plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros.
24:31
You can scan the QR code on your screen for more. Sharpplays.com. Bonus Drew Dincic today on this Tuesday, a third and final segment with Drew. You can follow Drew again on Twitter, whale_capper.
24:43
The Deep Dive is the podcast he does with Andy Molator. That is, uh, Dincic classic, and then, uh, Bet the Edge, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jake Croucher. Um, sorry I missed you and Andy at Bet Bash.
24:53
I know a, a good time was had by all. You guys are gonna be here for the contest weekend at, uh, Circa, the two of you? Yes. Yes. Uh, the, the s- the spacing worked out perfectly.
25:04
We had two weekends between Bet Bash and contest sign-up weekend, so I get two trips to the desert, which is- Nice... flat-out awesome. Nice. Uh, let's talk football.
25:12
You and Andy are now how many teams through the 32 NFL teams on the Deep Dive? Uh, we are on division number six of eight. Six of eight. Uh, we are doing the AFC West.
25:24
We're doing the AFC West this week, and, uh, all that's left is the AFC, NFC South. We've saved the worst for last. Um- [laughs] Yes. Yes, you have... the,
25:33
uh, AF- NFC, the NFC West, AFC West have just been super fun to talk about. And, uh, uh, yeah, the, um, uh, the, the picture's coming into focus, I think. Give me- Uh, so pretty excited... give me the...
25:45
Uh, so let me just ask this randomly. What do you recall in the six divisions you've done thus far, or five plus? Hmm. The biggest disagreement on a team that you and Andy have had, and the biggest- Oh...
25:57
agreement you've had?
26:00
Uh, early on, we were not on the same page with a couple of teams, but, uh, I think as we've gained more in- you know, gathered more information, made some adjustments, we've kinda come closer together.
26:09
Um, the biggest surprise was Andy was over market on the Steelers, and I was under market on the Steelers, and so I'm gonna hang that over his head all season long. [laughs] He's gonna...
26:18
Every time he doesn't bet the Steelers in a given week, I'm gonna try to interrogate why didn't you bet the Steelers? Why, why didn't you bet them? I thought you were over market on this team. Why didn't you bet them?
26:25
Uh, and because I, you know, again, like, uh, you know, maybe, maybe they, maybe they, uh, they ma- meet expectations.
26:32
Uh, but, uh, uh, I've, I don't know why, but beyond just, like, the rating of the players and, you know, coming up with a fair for them, I, I feel like the, um, the turn- you know, the change from a Mike Tomlin-led, uh, team to a Mike McCarthy-led team is gonna have some negative implications for their, uh, you know, for their production.
26:51
You know, for, just really for their wins. Um, I worry a bit that, uh, under Tomlin, like the, like the, the, the focus was very straightforward. Get to nine wins. Like, if we get to the playoffs, great.
27:03
If not, who cares? We gotta get to nine wins. That's what mattered. If we win a playoff game, who cares? We gotta get to nine wins.
27:09
Uh, and now, like, all, you know, generally, that grind of, you know, kind of making that, uh, make, just making that number, um, and, you know, now turning over to a new regime where that's not the priority, I think, uh, you could have a little bit of let your guard down during the regular season.
27:24
And, uh, uh, and, you know, frankly, the, I don't think the schedule, I don't think the quarterback play we saw from Aaron Rodgers, uh, affords them a lot of grace in terms of getting to nine wins this year.
27:35
Um, Aaron Rodgers for what...
27:36
If you, if you kinda missed the key kind of outcomes of the Aaron Rodgers experience in 2025, um, he was getting the ball out of his hands at an absurdly quick rate because of the fact that he did not want to get hit.
27:50
And when he went up against a violent pass rush that could generate quick pressure, uh, he was extremely ineffective. A lot of throwaways, a lot of wasted downs, and a lot of inefficient offense.
28:01
This was no better illustrated than the final two games of Aaron Rodgers' season, where he went up against the Baltimore Ravens with the chance to clinch a playoff spot.
28:09
The Baltimore Ravens had a completely toothless pass rush last year.
28:13
They could not generate long pressures, let alone quick pressures, by the time we got to January, and Aaron Rodgers was comfortable in the second half, delivered some obscenely good passes, uh, you know, in, in the comfortable confines of a clean pocket, and, uh, was able to get that team barely across the finish line thanks to the missed field goal at the end of regulation by the Ravens.
28:32
Uh, and then the next week, uh, as a short favorite, I believe, against the Texans of all teams, uh, he was a sitting duck- Hmm...
28:42
uh, and was completely unable to overcome, uh, the very, very strong pass rush that the Texans brought to town, and now, you know. C.J. Stroud was awful in that game. Didn't matter.
28:52
[laughs] Aaron Rodgers was not winning a contest against that pass rush.
28:56
And as I look across this year's schedule, uh, a handful of relatively strong pass rushes that I think are really gonna dictate, uh, some tough days, uh, for Aaron Rodgers, in particular, the Bengals, the Browns, and the Ravens, all with, uh, much stronger pass rushes coming into this season.
29:11
I think it's gonna be tough for the Steelers to find more than two wins in division. Um, and, uh, yeah, I think, uh, just in general, this feels like a, uh, this feels like a five to seven win team to me.
29:25
Um, and, um, and not that I have a problem with Aaron Rodgers, but I will not be sad if his, uh, going away party is, uh, a bit of a funeral. Yeah.
29:35
I'm right on the page with you for both the Steelers prognosis and the, uh, Aaron Rodgers sentiment there at the end. Uh, what about you and Andy in terms of agreement?
29:43
Was there one team where you, you guys were just piling on- Yeah... in terms of good or bad? [laughs] Yeah, yesterday.
29:50
I mean, we're both in the same camp of how in the world are the Broncos the third choice in the AFC West? Um- Meaning they should be worse perhaps Yeah, probab-- I, I have them first. Um- Mm-hmm...
30:03
it's a funny, and it's a funny wrinkle because, uh, we both came in with our fair ratings over market for the Broncos. We both have them favored, um, in a neutral setting to win the AFC West.
30:15
But when you look at the schedule sequencing, um, five of their first six games, they are two and a half point dogs, period. Wow. Like, it's very, very strange, [laughs]
30:27
that, that it's exactly two and a half, five out of six. Um, and- That's amazing actually, yeah...
30:31
so you've gotta take, you kinda have to make a call on the Broncos now, which is they're gonna win half or more of those g- you know, those games where they're two and a half point dogs.
30:43
And if they do, then the schedule softens up, uh, big time as they go into the middle portion of the season. Um- Yeah, just for the r- just for the radio people- Yeah, go ahead...
30:52
at Ch- to start, at Chief's home Jags, home Rams, at Niners, at Chargers, home Seahawks, and then it softens up. Yeah, yeah. They're favored against the Jaguars.
31:03
The other five games in their first six weeks, they are plus two and a half in every game right now. [laughs] And so- Man...
31:08
you know, you're, it, it's i- i- if, if that, if it, if, if the chalk plays out and they are one in five, um, you know, any bet you make pre-season is gonna be wildly underwater.
31:21
And so you kind of have the opportunity to be patient and hope that the number doesn't run away from you. Um, but if they beat the Chiefs,
31:30
week, you know, Monday Night Football, if they beat the Chargers, um, and then they win one of Rams, Niners, Seahawks, um, this is now all of a sudden a four and two or three and three team going into the stretch where you have a lot of advantages, and, you know, then they're talking about, you know, 13, 14 wins again.
31:49
And so I think the, you know, y- y- it's gonna be one where you're just gonna have to take a stand and bet it one way or wait, and then just live with the idea that you might miss out entirely on a good price for the Broncos.
32:02
Um, I, Andy's already bet them to win the, uh, AFC, which I was a little surprised and, uh, d- didn't agree with, um, just because I feel like the Broncos set up as an awesome regular season team, and I'm not convinced that you're gonna get the quality of play that you need out of, uh, Bo Nix and company to win a, you know, two or three playoff games.
32:26
Um, but, uh, he's taken a stand already, and, uh, essentially is, uh, you know, s- s- his, it, the die is cast for Andy and the Broncos. I'm right around the same number for him, but I haven't taken any action yet.
32:38
So, um, to me, the Broncos are an interesting defense because they're rostered extremely, you know, this is, this is, this is one of the best, most talented, I would say the maybe the most talented coverage unit in football.
32:49
They have an awesome pass rush. They're a decent run stop. And they should be a top five defense pretty clearly. They have a top one or two offensive line, uh, if healthy.
32:59
And, uh, so there's not really a lot of reasons to doubt that they're gonna be able to put together winning football. Um, for me, the question is really, can they stop elite running teams?
33:09
Um, they lose Jonathan Franklin-Myers, who was a huge part of their run stop last year. I feel like the really elite running teams on their schedule are gonna give them a tough time.
33:17
Like, Rams week three is probably a great test for them.
33:20
If the Rams come into that game and they're able to, uh, you know, kind of play a little bit of keep away and really put the defense in a tough spot, I could see Rams winning that one, uh, pretty comfortably.
33:30
But, uh, but there's not a lot of elite rushing teams on their schedule, particularly in the back half of the year. But they're gonna run into one in the playoffs, right?
33:37
You're gonna, they're gonna run into a Ravens, they're gonna run into a Bills type of team in the playoffs at some stage, and I feel like that's probably where it ends for them. So- Interesting...
33:45
um, I'm gonna get a little squirrely.
33:46
Rather than play, like, AFC at 15 to 1, I think I'm gonna play, like, a, a couple of exact results, like eliminated in the playoffs at the, uh, divisional stage or in the conference championship.
33:57
Man, once we start getting, once we start talking football- [laughs]... everything else goes out the window. It's just a d- [laughs]... it's just your juices start flowing. It's, it's amazing.
34:05
Before you go here, we have 60 seconds. Uh, anything week two pre-season that still exists? Ooh, uh, I'm mostly gonna try to find some angles into the, uh, who wins practices. Um- Okay...
34:18
I think the, the one that I have circled, uh, most sincerely right now is the Patriots', uh, Eagles prac- joint practices.
34:26
Um, the JPs, I think give you a little bit of signal when one team consistently wins these joint practices.
34:33
They go into, the, when you go into the week two game, um, the, uh, the loser of the practices has a little bit of an axe to grind, a little bit of job's not finished.
34:43
Uh, and you get a little bit more effort and a little bit more sharpness and focus out of that team. And the other team's like, "Ah, mission's accomplished, mission accomplished.
34:50
We don't really care what happens in this game." So- Yeah... looking for some effort imbalance, uh, based on, uh, lopsided joint practice outcomes, so excited for that. It's a, it's a Googling contest.
35:00
You gotta research. Yeah. [laughs] You gotta figure out who, who looks good and who does not look good in, in practices, joint practices. Drew, thank you so much. Appreciate it all, man.
35:08
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:25
Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander, solo today. Um, Kelly on vacation. He will be back on Monday, assuming all goes well in Nashville.
35:38
We assume he'll be back, and he'll be fine. Won't be hungover or anything. Matt Brown actually joining me for one more day this week tomorrow.
35:45
Uh, later this week, Thursday, Crack, of course, Bill Krackomberger, in studio. Uh, also on Thursday, Warren Sharp joining the show. We believe, we'll get confirmation from, uh, from Warren on that.
35:57
Uh, Friday, Fez on the show as well. Uh, on Friday. Who am I forgetting? Somebody else on Friday. Paul Carr. Oh, here's the thing, Thursday, Friday, Danny and I were like, "Hey, wait, what?"
36:08
Um, because we just got off the World Cup, and so our soccer minds are still, you know, with the World Cup in the rear view. But Paul Carr letting us know, "Hey, Premier League, let's do season longs.
36:18
Let's do first weekend, uh, picks." The Premier League is already back, so Paul Carr will give all his season longs on Thursday. He'll do his picks on Friday. Uh, looking forward to having him here later in the week.
36:29
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Uh, James, The James Lloyd, "Please tell me the lyrics to Yellow Ledbetter. I can play it on guitar, but I have no clue what the blank he is saying." I, I'm not even familiar.
36:38
Uh, WD40plus, "Rocking shoe." Gil, heard you talking about the, uh, Rock the Casbah lyrics on the show. It's Sharif, don't like it. No, I know. And we, we... It's a whole story. We get it. It's Sharif.
36:49
Uh, I once knew a girl who thought Beast of Burden was, "I'll never be your big suburban." [laughs] We all have one. Ah, that's awesome. Uh, Scrabble Star. That's the Rolling Stones, right?
37:01
Scrabble Star, uh, Biscayne Dog 74, "Final word on this." Final word on this? A discarded set of lyrics by The Clash. Oh, I see what you did here. He said, uh, "Sharif had to pull out. Rock Gil's bankroll.
37:15
Rock Gil's bankroll." Thank you so much. Every- they're the best listeners ever. Uh, coming up with lyrics to songs. You think The Clash knew this was gonna be applied to tennis bets 44 years later? I wonder.
37:28
Mark Gupta, "Hey, Gil, on your tennis bad beat numbers, have you had any repeat offenders?" Oh, this is a phenomenal question, and, and I don't have the answer to this.
37:37
Anecdotally, if I think about it in time, has somebody screwed me by walking off the court late on multiple occasions? There are certain players, right?
37:47
Uh, you may have m- One of the ones was the actual the Maya Sharif one, where Paula Badosa walked off right before...
37:53
And by the way, uh, let me just aside to an aside, because I was using the terms interchangeably, and I shouldn't. Nicholas Griggs poi- points out a walkover technically, right, is before the match even starts.
38:03
So we're not talking about walkovers.
38:05
That's, that's Kelly and I, the joke about, you know, the, the Allen Iverson walking over to Ron Lou, and that players should be made to lay, to lay down and person physically walk over them. Um,
38:16
uh, retirements are what we're talking about, so thank you for that, uh, clarification, Nico Griggs. I don't wanna use them interchangeably. Retirements are the things we're talking about.
38:23
But to answer your question, uh, Mark Gupta, are there repeat offenders to this?
38:27
Um, you know, like the Paula Badosas of the world who walked off the court versus Sharif, she is, she's a culprit, but she usually has the decency to withdraw before the match ever starts.
38:40
I don't know that she is a, uh, recidivist, to use [laughs] to use the, uh, uh, the criminal term, uh, for repeat offenders. I don't think she's a recidivist on walking off the court in the middle of the match.
38:54
The girl who, or the, the lady who we were the culprit of yesterday, Anna Kalinskaya, who took her toys and went home down 5-love. You can't just play four more points.
39:06
You can't just let her score four more bo- And, like, and just give her this... Forget our bets, right? Y- Sh- I understand we're betting, and we're self-centered about it.
39:13
But allow, allow your opponent the dignity of the complete match, right? You can't just let her play out four more points. Let her ace you four times or whatever.
39:22
Anyway, uh, Anna Kalinskaya is now on the radar because I heard yesterday this is her eighth retirement here in a couple years' time. So that is buyer beware.
39:36
So I do have to, yes, it is now incumbent, I can't believe we're at this point now, 'cause as I mentioned, in 2023, in my entire spreadsheet, there's only four retirements in the entire season.
39:48
And then you see it's, like, blossomed over the last three years to 20, now 25 of them, and, like, who knows how many this year. So this is becoming an epidemic, and so Kalinskaya, you are now on the radar for
40:00
not having the decency to withdraw before the match, but actually to not allow matches during to reach their conclusion. So it's sad that you have to keep that list going. [lips smack] Uh, great question, though.
40:13
Haji, "I thought it was Sheree don't like it, and it's been 44 years. Not sure how I feel about it now." I'm gonna just repeat this 'cause people are like, "What is all this Rock the Casbah?"
40:23
Ev- This happened because my brother started singing it. The song came on. He said Sharif. I'm like, "What are you talking about?" He says, "Oh, yeah, it's Sharif."
40:30
I was like, "I thought it was Charlene all these 44 years." I said Charlene. Uh, Chrissy Andrews, who I texted immediately, he says, "Oh, I thought it was, uh..." He said Shireen or something like that.
40:42
Joe Pita said Shireen. Chrissy said Sheree. Um, anyway, more people got it wrong than good, except for listeners of this show, who apparently are all geniuses and all knew it was Sharif. And Sharif makes sense, right?
40:54
Because the song is about a, uh, fictional king, Sharif, who, uh, wasn't, wasn't appreciating the kids playing their rock and roll, if you know what I mean. Uh, let's see. "Any value in Carlitos?" Shrek.
41:07
"Any value in Carlitos 3 to 1 US Open? Even if he hasn't played, he will be, he will be tuned by the time he makes the semis, assuming he does." Um, yeah. Look, it's either Sinner or Alcaraz.
41:19
It's not that complicated on the men's side. Everybody else is super great, but it's still those two guys. Even a hampered Carlos or a we-don't-know-what-he's-going-to-be-like Carlos, so I understand the point.
41:30
But Jannik Sinner still the, uh, still the rightful favorite. Is there value at three to one? No, but if it gets any higher than that, there's value. You're, you're getting there.
41:39
Plus 350, four to one, then you're talking absolutely, uh, value on that. And, uh, JasonH11, "Don't forget Elton John's iconic song, Tony Danza." That's right.
41:48
Uh, Tiny Dancer made famous, Tony Danza made famous by, uh, was it Lisa Cu- Kudrow as Phoebe in Friends? Was that an episode, I believe, where she, uh,
41:58
misread it as Tony Danza, Tiny Dancer, and they, uh, called her on it? That's, that's an outstanding one. And Eagle Marine letting us know that in terms of tennis grading, uh, the score
42:08
If anybody who bets at the score, if you're betting tennis, this is awesome, formerly ESPN, uh, they treat tennis retirements like this.
42:17
Match winner-- Okay, so match winners bets are void if your player retires after the first set. The match winner bets win if your player advances due to retirement after one set.
42:33
Okay, so basically they give the player the best of it either way. All right. Eh, good job to Score.
42:39
I don't know how much, I don't know how much they're letting you bet at the Score, that's a whole nother story, but at least they have, uh, favorable rules in favor of the player on both sides of that.
42:47
Anyway, best listeners in the game, y'all are awesome. Appreciate all the, uh, all the tweets. Uh, Jeff Pearl still to come on the show here. Joe Sheehan's gonna join us for baseball.
42:55
Joe's got a bunch of picks, uh, for baseball today, and Jeff has a bunch of season longs in both college football and pro football.
43:01
He's got a bunch of thoughts really, uh, for both as well, in addition to, uh, bets that he's made. Couple things.
43:08
One, just riffing off what Drew said in the previous segment, I am directionally with him on both of the teams that he was talking about. Pittsburgh Steelers under, um, I finally feel...
43:18
And I'm not like Kelly who does this every year, so I don't wanna be accused of that. But I do think this is the year where they fall under their season win total.
43:24
Again, Aaron Rodgers is gonna be 43 years old in December. Um, I do not expect that team to be competitive this year at the top of that division.
43:35
I know we've said it at least once or twice before, and it hasn't happened, but I do think that's a thing.
43:39
I wanna follow up more, though, on the Denver Broncos note from Drew, because he and Andy, he was talking about he and Andy Molitor talking about they can't believe the Broncos are sort of slotted as third in the N- in the AFC West with Kansas City and the Chargers ahead of them.
43:53
Um, I'm sort of coming around to that as well. Again, with the Chargers, in the Chargers case, it is simply the schedule is brutality, right? After the first two games, it is a gauntlet.
44:06
And say what you will about the Chargers, but, um, we wouldn't-- I don't think anybody would be shocked if they didn't meet some of the expectations of the market. The schedule is, is ridiculous.
44:16
Kansas City, we said last year, uh, about last year, yesterday with Matt Brown, it's the first year last year where Patrick Mahomes, you, you didn't, you know, you didn't see him put on the cape and just come to the rescue.
44:27
And so I don't know what we can expect with the, uh, Chiefs. I do think the Kenneth Walker pickup is huge for him, behind him in the backfield. I, I think that's sort of an undervalued thing. But I'm not...
44:37
There's a lot more question marks with the Chiefs for me than there is certainties. The Broncos, I'll just go through some of the, the notes again about the Broncos.
44:45
Last year, 14 and three, they were 11 and two in one-score contests. So I get it. There's gonna, there's gonna probably be some regression on one-score contests.
44:55
Um, but they helped themselves out with Jalen Waddell because Bo Nix's numbers over the middle were bad. Jalen Waddell makes his hay over the middle. That's great.
45:04
The defense, though, is the key to it all, and as long as you have Nick Benito and Patrick Surtain manning the middle, manning the back end, this is going to just be a stay the course defense.
45:15
And I just wanna say, with all this stuff about the one-score games regressing to the mean, let's talk about something that is likely to see positive regression, and that's takeaways.
45:23
They fell, the Broncos did, from 26 in 2023 to 25 takeaways in 2024, and then just 14 last year in 2025. So that, for all the people talking about the one-score stuff, you gotta have a full picture.
45:38
Throw in the takeaway stuff, which is just as likely to regress as a one-score thing is, and it sort of balances that out.
45:44
So don't let anybody sort of talk you into the, to the one-score things like they successfully did or they correctly did with the Chiefs going from 2024 and then regressing horribly in one-score games in 2025.
45:55
There's a bigger picture when it comes to the Denver Broncos. Joe Sheehan on baseball. Jeff Pearl's on football. It's next. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
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